Well, so there’s nothing to worry about then, is there?

Nope. I've been sleeping like a baby. I trust the mullahs. They're religious people.

Hans Blix, call your office.

Shukran, Charles, Mr. Pol has already scared me half to death on this-- now I will have nightmares for sure!

Iran's Manhattan Project Speeding Ahead

Have No fear on this, for if kerry is elected he, the fwench, the germans, in 'his coalition of 3', will don their NASA rubber suits, swoop into Iran and talk the nice mullahs out of the weaponry, over a glass or two of "green mint tea".

Nothing to see here, folks. Return to your homes.

/channeling South Park's Officer Barbooty

Not to worry, if the Mad Mullahs do anything foolish, Kerry's response will be Swift and Sure! With UN permission and supervision, of course...

I know, let's elect Kerry. They're only pursuing nuclear weapons because of Bushitlerstalinmaopolpot has invaded their peaceful neighbors and is clearly insane and evil and wants to kill all muslims as a favor to the Zionist controlled Saudi royal family.

I believe that Mrs Bush christened the latest navy nuclear sub today. The Texas, which is a glass factory class boat, if the Iranian Mullahs are interested, and comes with the latest electronic Mecca Meter, which includes pre-programming for Qum and other "points of interest".

I can talk freely with loved ones about any topic on earth -- except this topic. It’s simply too scary and too nightmarish and too impending. They just can’t handle it. This Iran nuclear situation is at least equal to the Cuban Missile Crisis in seriousness and horrific global implications. Yet among the people I know, there are only two frames of mind: a. Never heard of it, what are you talking about, you’re so paranoid, what’s gotten into you these days, and b. So bone-terrified they can’t even think about it. Neither group is equipped to confront the situation. This reason and this reason alone is sufficient to vote for Bush in November. You know for a fact that Kerry will dillydally and act all nuanced and not offend the international community and wait for the attack before responding, until it’s TOO LATE. Then the world, and Israel and the US especially, are gonna be in a HEAP o’ trouble.

Israel: take out the reactors now. CIA: foment internal revolution in Iran among students. Bush: threaten (and carry out) serious economic sanctions with any country (i.e. Russia) that aids this effort. If all else fails, pour troops in Iraq and start massing them on the Iranian border.

#8 gymnast

The Texas, which is a glass factory class boat,

Nope, it is a fast attack boat. We aren't building any more boomers. In fact, we are converting two of the existing 18 to carry Seal Teams, not SLMBs

#9 zombie

This Iran nuclear situation is at least equal to the Cuban Missile Crisis in seriousness and horrific global implications.

Not even close. At the worse, Iran will get several fission bombs, nothing at all like the thremonuclear warheads the USSR was installing in Cuba.

Israel: take out the reactors now.

The reactor has not even been fueled yet, Russia has not shipped the fuel rods. Iran is using centrifuges to enrich U-235. This is going to be a problem, but it is not one yet.

#10 [Engineer]

In fact, we are converting two of the existing 18 to carry Seal Teams, not SLMBs

That's good news for lots of reasons. Any links?

Iran’s decision backtracks from a pledge in October to the European Union’s “big three” members — Britain, France and Germany —

The "big three"? Big one, mini two. France and Germany really don't count.
I just found this: Nuclear Control Institute. Watch your nuclear jihadis here.

#11 [Engineer]

The reactor has not even been fueled yet, Russia has not shipped the fuel rods. Iran is using centrifuges to enrich U-235. This is going to be a problem, but it is not one yet.

Osirak reactor was hit just before it was loaded, remember. To avoid colleratal downwind damage.

Once they're powered up, it's a disincentive to hit them.

#10, engineer, Oh well, I guess 16 glass factories will have to do then, and the attack boats will just have to do the job for which they were intended.

#12 TenRing

Iwas wrong, we are converting FOUR of them Link

More details

Have we invented "smart nukes" yet?

It would be a shame to have to spread nuclear devastation across a wide swath of the middle east in order to take out a few dozen key Iranian nuclear facilities. I'd like to think that we had the capacity to fire a few low level nukes into key installations to end the Iranian threat without vaporizing their nation. We should nail the mullahs with conventional weapons, but we should kill them all before they kill hundreds of millions. That is what they want to do.

#15 gymnast

I guess 16 glass factories will have to do then

Looks like we are only going to have 14 of them. Let's see 14 subs X 24 missiles X 5 warheads (reduced from 8) = 1680 warheads @ 470 kilotons each = 789600 kilotons or 790 megatons. I wonder if that is enough:-)

OT
i officially dub this the drinking thread. in honor of this event i ask all with the right amount of creative writing skills to please respond to this latest of scam mails. i also urge everyone to raise theire glasses to those marines that met kerry today.

/ok back to wine and lurking
/nuff said

And the Ayatoilets say: America will fall. I say: continued Muslim immigration, and America's founding ideas will wither.
[Link: www.iranian.ws...]

The US Treasury no longer has the money to finance major military operations. And given the Iraq catastrophe - 7 Iraqi cities in the hands of Islamofascist tyrants - the political will and morale of the troops has been sapped. That is why total war should have been waged within days of Sept. 11, 2001. WMDs are cost-effective.

doh mail is

Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 09:10:39 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: URGENT ASSISTANCE
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---
nothin like a post and forget to paste

"drink i say drink"
quote from i forgot

Engineer,

I fear the Iranians more, they actually believe they (Islamic world) can withstand any form of nuclear retaliation, whereas the USSR feared mutual annihilation.

Any lizards outside the US and Israel know how this story is playing among everyday folks? It really doesn't seem to be getting a lot of traction here, but at least is brought up in passing every now and then.

#17 Stop Hillary: New nuke research is being opposed by, well, you know whom (sigh). But our tomahawk missiles can carry nukes and they don't haul a big payload, so it seems that we have some smaller ones ready-to-rock that may well fit the bill. To be honest though, I think we worry far too much about the "kinder, gentler" use of weaponry. Nope, tell the mullahs they'll be eating sunshine at midnight if they keep this shit up, and let them be responsible for their choices.

Apologies to all the liberal readers for offending you with reckless language like "responsible for their choices." I know the concept mortifies you to the core, but it seemed the situation warranted it being said.

However, Kharrazi gave assurances that Tehran had not resumed enriching uranium.

Joe Felon gave assurances that he was only loading the gun and that he hadn't actually started pulling the trigger yet.

Like many/most of you, I too am very dismayed because: (1) both we and Israel are waiting around for so long before doing anything about Iran, and (2) so few people seem to recognize just how serious the situation is. My guess is that Israel will indeed attack Iran's nuclear facilities, possibly preceding it with a pre-emptive attack on the Hizbullah in Lebanon/Syria (or maybe not, if they are worried about losing the element of surprise in attacking Iran). Either way, the world, including even the US, Britain, and Australia will likely condemn Israel for it (basically repeating their reactions to the Iraq Osirak reactor attack). But hey, sometime a man's got to do what a man's got to do, to protect his family and his country. And I, for one, will see it as another reason to donate as much money as possible to help Israel out. For example the Magen David Adom (the Israeli eqivalent of the Red Cross, only more honorable) will be needing all the help we can give to deal with the inevitable casualties due to Arab military/terrorist counterattacks, despite the fact that Israel will ultimately emerge victorious.

Finally, I sure wish it were OT, but potentially useful information that I strongly recommend to you all can be found at: [Link: www.oism.org...]
regarding "Nuclear War Survival Skills." Author Cresson Kearny does a superb and sobering job of explaining just what to do, and how to enhance your chances of survival, in very practical terms, should a nuclear attack occur or appear to be imminent in your vicinity. Although his book was written during the cold war, the wealth of practical & rapid shelter-design and survival-related info is still right on target, and could really save your life. It would really help those of us who might be unlucky enough to live close enough to a nuclear event that we would be concerned with radioactive fallout. I own a hardcopy, but you can get the whole book free on line at the website above.

Yes, I hope we never need this information, but it is important to be prepared.

I was on liberty in Manama Bahrain when the Israeli's destroyed Orisak , we were chased by howling [bigoted word]s back to the ship. We wound up anchoring in the harbor and liberty was restricted to the Alchohol Support Unit.

I have the utmost faith in Ariel Sharons judgement and feel confident the Israeli's are on the ball. He helped found his nation and no screaming mullahs are gonna ever piss in his wheaties.

#25, I doubt we will condemn it when it happens, Bush and Sharon have a plan in place covering every contigency. They are too capable imo to let the mullah's have one nuke.

The mossad probably has compromised the Iranian manhattan project, for all I know Jews are running the project, I wouldn't underestimate the Israeli's or the U.S.

No one at Democratic Party Convention mentioned the issue of Iran getting the bomb. What was more important to them was, for example, stem cell research, which just happens to be junk science (so far). Behold:

None of this is to say that embryonic stem cell research can't possibly lead to some improvements in biological understanding or future therapeutic treatments, but such speculative progress of who-knows-what value isn't in the foreseeable future. The only thing certain is that the cost of that research will be high. If embryonic stem cell research had real and imminent possibilities, private investors would be pouring capital into research hoping for real and imminent profits. Instead, venture capital firms are contributing to political efforts to get taxpayers to fund research.

Yep, the Dems sure have their priorities straight.

[Engineer]: 790 megatons

My calculator melted when converting to pounds of TNT. The last flash on the display was 1.6 trillion.

Sorry, the stem cell quote is from here.

#23 Model4 -- It would be a tragedy to have to nuke Iran on a widescale basis. Mind you, I'd be for it were it to become a necessity. Many Iranians actually see the USA as their hope and future. Unfortunately (and take note all you shithead liberal gungrabbers) the Iranian populus is disarmed. A minority of mullahs have their way and simply kill their unarmed opponents and they've been doing it relentlessly for decades -- worse than the Shah. That is why our Founders gave us the 2nd Amendment. It is the Foundation for each of the other Bill of Rights. Without it, the others are meaningless words on a piece of paper. The Iranians understand that with brutal reality today.

Any strategy that took out the Mullahs and their well-armed Jihadi jackboots, would overwhelmingly bring Iran away from Islamist fundamentalism.

Hmm, when we talk about missles with multiple warheads in the post above, how far apart can those warheads hit? And what if you only wanted to hit one or two targets and there's 5 warheads? Just double and triple up? Or the "extras" just don't go off?

#29 Max Darkside

My calculator melted when converting to pounds of TNT. The last flash on the display was 1.6 trillion.

It really is a number past human understanding if you think about the results. I don't ever want to see even one of those warheads used in anger, but we may be forced to do that.

I wish we had used a small nuclear device on the caves at Bora Bora. It would have gotton a lot of terrorists and sent a very loud message and done so without much other damage.

I was talking to a somewhat liberal, somewhat Kerry-liking (or more accurately, GWB-disliking) friend last night, and in the course of our discussion I said, "Imagine what would happen if 5 nuclear weapons went off simultaneously in 5 different cities."

Boy, talk about yer conversation-stopper.

#20, P-BUM. Ah, another shred of wisdom from the Von Clauswitz of Mumby. I liked your posts better when you were going by "Camel Prophet". When do you think the forces of evil will be vanquished from Kashimir? How many troops did India put into Iraq against Saddam? I've lost track.

#32 Model4
Each warhead is independently targeted. We can send them all to one place or spread them out through a continent. We have great tools...

#32 Model4

Hmm, when we talk about missles with multiple warheads in the post above, how far apart can those warheads hit?

I don't think that kind of information is public. I certainly don't know, but I do know something thing about how they do it and I would guess that the targets can be 10's of miles apart maybe even a hundred or so.

And what if you only wanted to hit one or two targets and there's 5 warheads? Just double and triple up? Or the "extras" just don't go off?

Would you really want to give the enemy a warhead? I think you would have to use them all. Remember, these subs were designed to kill cities in the USSR.

#31 Stop Hillary: Yeah, you're right of course. Let's hope it doesn't come to those kinds of awful decisions.

I really worry about Israel especially in all this. With Russia and the Euros backing Iran up, to various degrees, I'm sure Iran's got some pretty nifty anti-aircraft weapons. I'm guessing they'd have to overfly Iraq, which would mean their actions would be met with some degree of our approval, so why not take care of it ourselves? There's also little doubt that if a nuke or three go off in Israel, it will be the jooos who get blamed for retaliation after they can't provide a return shipping address label in the rubble.

Interesting times indeed. I wonder if the left in the US and Europe really know the ramifications of everything they're supporting. Hey, does Israel have nuke-capable missles that could do the job? Could always claim it was a kaytusha (sp) rocket from Gaza that "went off course."

#32 any way you want it. versatility in destruction.

#34Charles, we underestimate them at our own peril, yet they sure aren't supermen either though.

Preventing all attacks is an impossibility, knock on wood, though the govt seems to be doing all right since 9-11.

No telling how many attacks have been prevented though I'im nclined to believe they haven't tried the WMD out yet.

I think anthrax dispersed in about 50 cities is what their planning to do. They really want to kill us all.

#37 [Engineer]: The multiple warheads I know about are MIRVs, which fall down from outside the atmosphere. In that case, if one were to hit the ground and not go off, it seems that wouldn't be "giving the enemy a warhead." Heck, it might not even be feasible for them to recover the atomized and scattered enriched goodies.

LOL, it's kind of funny talking about stuff like this in the midst of a conflict where we're skittish about using artillery!

The Saud Crown Prince, who hasn't bagged a single jihadi since his amnesty ended on August 23, spews some more hollow threats. The only bigger joke than his whimp-war on terror, is his sick country. [Link: www.arabnews.com...]

Abdullah has 25 jihadis on his list, and millions in reward money out there. And nobody's biting. Wonder why.

#41 Model4

#37 [Engineer]: The multiple warheads I know about are MIRVs, which fall down from outside the atmosphere. In that case, if one were to hit the ground and not go off, it seems that wouldn't be "giving the enemy a warhead." Heck, it might not even be feasible for them to recover the atomized and scattered enriched goodies.

Right, or just send it to the same place a few seconds behind. That would make the area a lot harder to clean up, but hey, who worrys about being tidy when you just nuked them:-)

LOL, it's kind of funny talking about stuff like this in the midst of a conflict where we're skittish about using artillery!

Sure is. I know a Lt in Iraq that was bitching about incoming rounds while he was trying to sleep. We refuse to let them use their fire finder radars to shoot back because the terrorist shoot from housing areas.

Hey there, Camel Prophet. Welcome to the drinking thread! Well, according to JimmyTheClaw, anyway.

So, what are you having m' man? Beer? Mixed drink? Wine? Mad Dog 20/20? What's your poison?

#11 and #25

Just posted this comment over on Roger L. Simon's blog re this topic. It's relevent here too.

#11 . Thank's to Dr. Kahn he made nuclear non-proliferation treaties meaningless. Enrich your own from low enriched uran (LEU)

#25 Yes, I do believe the Israelis have a "green light," but it will be more difficult than the last time in Iraq.

Roger Simon's quest of overthrowing the Iranian regime by assisting the Iranian bloggers has merit.

Ron

***

This could be bigger than an Uh-Oh!

Here's a recent piece I posted re the danger the world faces from the rise of Islamofascism as defined by Victor Davis Hanson.

I hope that President Bush has a "Hail Mary" pass in the works. It's third down with 40 yrds to go and the game clock is ticking down, . . . tick,tick,tick, . . .

Could be the Israelis have been given the "Green Light" to take care of business.

The media is still in a snit over, "Where's the Beef [Iraq]?" There have been little snippets here and there that someone may be taking care of business. The media can't see the forest for the trees though through their anger. . .

This could be the beginnings of a good PI yarn for Mr. Simon if what John Loftus has said is true about a conspiracy with Iraq, Libya, and North Korea to build nukes in Gadhafi's caves.

Also check out the "Power and Politics of Blogs," I think there is a real chance to unite with the Iranian bloggers to overthrow the repressive Islamofascist theocracy.

***

07-29-04

Sheri and Natalie

Thx. I'm forwarding your msg on to some other colleagues and friends.

YES, WE MUST NEVER FORGET!

Could you please route this message back to those who sent it? Our media has failed to educate and objectively report to the American People the clear and present danger the free world now faces from the rise of Islamofascist terrorism. Regardless of where on the political spectrum you fall, this is a message that all American people need to hear. Our culture and very way of life are at stake.

Our country is at war with an asymmetrical enemy that has launched the first strike. One could argue this war began as far back as the attack on the Marine barracks in Beirut or earlier. This enemy is transnational in nature with a common bound of Islamofascist ideology. We have not countered this threat in any meaningful way, because we are a peaceful and tolerent people.

We have failed to understand the true threat. Our enemy does not understand our freedom of speech and our current political debate. Instead it sees our greatest freedom and our tolerance of other cultures and religions as a sign of weakness and indecisiveness. The time for political correctness is past. Our freedoms we enjoy are at the very root of this battle.

This is a war of ideology, culture, and religion. We will win this war because Islamofascism is a failed ideology. At stake is how many human lives will be lost, before we as a country unite, and crush this enemy.

Yes, this expression is trite and regardless if support President Bush or Senator Kerry, this is a war of "Good" vs. "Evil." As President Bush said, we are a tolerant people but once aroused, we are a fierce adversary. .

To the American people, I say, "Let's Roll!"

FREEDOM! FREEDOM! FREEDOM! FREEDOM!

Ron Wright, Moderator
HSPIG Forums Site
[Link: www.hspig.org...]

Essay Links:

FREEDOM - Thx to The Greatest Generation for Preserving It and Geo-Political Strategic Analysis of the WOT

Iraq, Libya, and N. Korea nuclear conspiracy

US Media Lack of Objectivity

EXCELLENT READ - Hating America [Anti-Americanism]

#9 zombie: You are right to be scared.

#34 Charles:

I said, "Imagine what would happen if 5 nuclear weapons went off simultaneously in 5 different cities."

How about 2 nuclear weapons in two cities? Mr Pol says the Iranians have two nuclear warheads they boosted from Kazahkstan in 1991.

#11 [engineer]: Take your head out of the sand-- this is a huge problem.

gymnast #35:
I'm new here, so I don't appreciate your name speculation. Last November, new pro-active rules of engagement in Iraq, reduced US casualties by over one half. Widespread support for hardline methodology could have an effect. I would bet that a majority, would like to see the field troops unleased. Already there are 7 Iraqi cities, with leaders more dangerous than those in the Afghanistan genocide camps. Supporting the status quo is a prop for futility.

Put up or shut up: do you support the current rules of engagement? And if so, then why?

#47 peace be upon me

I'm new here, so I don't appreciate your name speculation.

LOL, you were busted out by Charles himself. Camel Prophet, why keep up this BS?

zombie (#9)

Israel: take out the reactors now. CIA: foment internal revolution in Iran among students. Bush: threaten (and carry out) serious economic sanctions with any country (i.e. Russia) that aids this effort. If all else fails, pour troops in Iraq and start massing them on the Iranian border.

Sounds like a plan to me. I only hope that plans are in fact in place. I can't imagine that the US and Israel are pretending that this is going to go away on its own. Iran is up to no good and not being coy about it.

#46 jinnderella

#11 [engineer]: Take your head out of the sand-- this is a huge problem.

My head is just where it should be. I can't comment on Mr. Pol's story, but I can on Iraq's nuclear program. It is a concern, but it is not the end of the world we are looking at. You need to deal with the facts and only the facts.

There are two ways to get the materials to build a nuclear device. One is to enrich U-235, normally with centrifuges. Iran is still building their centrifuges and they will need a lot of them.

The other way is to "burn" uranium in a reactor. After a year or so, you take the fuel rods out and process them and you can extract plutonium. Iran's reactor has not yet been fueled.

Also, Iran got their designs from Pakistan, but the Pak's nuclear weapons don't seem to work very well. The tests they did to scare India didn't work well at all. Link It sure looks like Iran will have to do some testing.

Now do you understand why the US or Israel has not done anything using overt military force yet?

#9 zombie

Israel: take out the reactors now.

Can't. Israel doesn't have that kind of political capitol. Besides, there are 26 sites, all are hardened, and most are in population centers including under universities. The days of Osirak are long gone.

CIA: foment internal revolution in Iran among students.

Before or after we bomb the bejeesus out of them?

Bush: threaten (and carry out) serious economic sanctions with any country (i.e. Russia) that aids this effort

Because of all the flak over our unilateral actions in Iraq, there is already a triumvarate appointed to handle the Iranian problem-- Great Britain, France, and Germany-- of course, they are doing nothing. The UN is [of course] doing nothing.
So, what should be done? I've read a whole lot of discussion on this topic and no one's proposed a cost-viable solution yet. :(

OT speaking of rockets:

'The embattled farmers stood and fired the shot heard round the world," declared Ted Kennedy, in a moment of Revolutionary War nostalgia. Or he would have done, if he'd managed to stick to his text. But, in a strikingly erratic performance even by his standards, what actually emerged from the senator's lips was: They "fired the shirt round the world.''

That sums up better than anything what the Democratic Party's been trying to do this last week for its presidential candidate: fire the stuffed shirt round the world, put a rocket up a guy who seems weighed down by his own self-importance and project him into the stratosphere. All the star speakers through the week were the equivalents of those bits of the rocket that boost you up into space and then fall away, leaving just the little capsule up there. And, who knows, if they boosted him up high enough, maybe nobody would notice just how little there is to John Kerry's little capsule.

Steyn
[Link: www.suntimes.com...]

#50 Engineer: The Beshr reactor is Russian designed and built, and it is 90% complete. The UN monitoring of the sites is bogus, and no one really knows the status of the 26 different sites. Charles has pointed that out many times here. There is speculation that the Iranians already possess enough enriched uranium for 2 or 3 bombs. Mr Pol has work related experience.

I outlined the reasons neither the US or Israel has taken action above.

So, what's your plan? We sit on our hands until nuke testing starts? The time for a preemptive strike is waaay past. There won't be another Osirak.

#47, Camel Prophet. Don was gonna' brief me on the latest ROE on Mon. A.M., however, since you seem to be up on it you can start now. I really would like to see your latest reports on the liberation of Kashmir and the order of battle of the Indian troops taking part in Iraq.

OT - The dhimmification of Michigan continues

DEARBORN HEIGHTS — A resolution calling attention to the Islamic faith and those who practice it in Dearborn Heights was met with mixed feelings about its intent.

The resolution, proposed by Councilman Robert Constan at Tuesday's City Council meeting, states:

"Islam is a religion of peace, family, community and wisdom" that is being practiced by a growing number of Dearborn Heights residents."

The resolution ends by proposing that the City Council recognize the Islamic faith and Islamic holidays, and encourages all residents to come to know and better understand the faith.

The council unanimously voted to refer the resolution to a study session for review.

Former City Councilman David Turfe accused Constan of proposing the resolution in an attempt to better his political standing with people of Islamic faith in Dearborn Heights.

"Islam is a monotheistic religion of peace. The root word in Islam means peace. No resolution by this council can change that nor does the religion need recognition by this body to confirm that fact," he said.

Councilwoman Margaret Van Houten also questioned the intent of the resolution, saying she "could not tell where it was going."

Constan said the resolution was meant only as a way to recognize the growing number of residents in the city who live and practice the Islamic faith and to have the city recognize the faith so that it might be possible in the future for those who practice Islam to get holidays off work.

He compared the resolution to one proposed to the Dearborn City Council members earlier this year, which would have made the Eid Al-Adha and the Eid Al-Fitr — two major Muslim holidays — official city holidays, and to a 2003 resolution passed by the Michigan House of Representatives that honors Muslims and Ramadan.

Councilwoman Catherine Heise said the proposal was a political move by Constan in response to a recent news report that connected Constan to an alleged push poll that was conducted in Dearborn Heights during the 2001 city election.

Don Anderson, professor of political science at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, says a push poll is used to "stack the deck" in a political campaign.

"It's not scientific," Anderson said.

In a push poll, Anderson says, the pollster feeds negative information in a question so that the people polled give a negative response.

The poll allegedly was aimed at discrediting two Arab-American candidates running for council at the time — one of whom was Turfe.

Heise called the proposed resolution a poorly timed, poorly executed effort to make amends saying it fell flat.

Dearborn Heights resident Zouher Abdel-Hak defended the resolution, saying he worked on the resolution with Constan and it was not politically motivated.

"There wasn't anything degrading in it," Abdel-Hak said. "Some people question the timing and motive; they have every right to raise their opinion but it should be clear that the resolution was not to polish Mr. Constan's image in the Arabic community."

"I think it's good that we honor the different types of ethnic groups we have in our city," Dearborn Heights resident Chris Michalakis said.

"I think our diversity is a big strength in Dearborn Heights."

Sigh. Diversity is our strength, blah blah blah

#53 jinnderella

The Beshr reactor is Russian designed and built, and it is 90% complete.

That means that they are two years or so from having plutonium IF they can reprocess it which is not easy.

The UN monitoring of the sites is bogus,

I fully agree. In fact, they may be actively helping Iran.

There is speculation that the Iranians already possess enough enriched uranium for 2 or 3 bombs.

I haven't seen anything that makes me think that is true and they would not be trying to build centrifuges if they could already enrich U-235. Also, running centrifuges takes a LOT of electrical power. We can probably tell how much they are processing from orbit.

I don't know what the US or Israel is doing or planning to do, but I trust both Bush and/or Sharon to act before it is too late (and to define what too late means)

I believe that those of you arguing that a pre-emptive attack is not an option, because of the placement of the nuclear sites, etc, are not thinking this through. Consider the alternative: Iran WILL launch either surreptitious (via terror) or even directly attributable nuclear attacks once they get nuclear weapons. The only real question should concern the best way to launch a pre-emptive strike.

For me, that means:
1. Identify the targets as well as possible.
2. Identify the most suitable means of destroying them.
3. Cover your back.
4. Prepare carefully, and think it all the way through.
5. Launch a surprise attack.

BTW, there exist 9 principles of war that history has demonstrated time and time again as being key to victory in any war. We should follow those principles. Here is a list (from [Link: www.wpi.edu...] ):

1. Mass: Concentrate combat power at the decisive place and time
2. Objective: Direct every military operation towards a clearly defined, decisive, and attainable objective
3. Offensive: Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative
4. Surprise: Strike the enemy at a time, at a place, or in a manner for which he is unprepared
5. Economy of force: Allocate minimum essential combat power to secondary efforts
6. Maneuver: Place the enemy in a position of disadvantage through the flexible application of combat power
7. Unity of command: For every objective, ensure unity of effort under one responsible commander
8. Security: Never permit the enemy to acquire an unexpected advantage
9. Simplicity: Prepare clear, uncomplicated plans and clear, concise orders to ensure thorough understanding

jinnderella:

Shukran? Getting ready to convert?

#55/ Paid fucking holidays so the [bigoted word]s can worship a PEDOPHILE !!!

WTF this shit is really offending me and I imagine anyone else who know's a bit about the islamakazi's.

Fear not, Mignons, le Nuancy Boy will take care of it. ;-0

I just watched the Protest Warrior video "Eagle Strike." Quite good. Also hair-raising. Seeing how enraged the Morlocks get when someone asks them questions is kinda scary. One guy, a soi-disant "socialist," when asked if he thought the Iraqis we released from Saddam's prisons were glad his crowd wasn't in charge, leaned forward and barked, "You're full of shit. Fuck you. Fuck you."

Now there's a cogent argument!

One guy on the soundtrack, providing a lame-o 'reggae' song, started out by saying "hi to all our Mooslim brothers" [his pronunciation].

Much commie literature, Malcolm X stuff, hardcore radfem stuff [Andrea Dworkin type lit.], etc. And they stepped to the PW guys bigtime when they showed up on the edge of the ANSWER crowd. Threatening, almost came to blows. Ugly.

Well worth watching --I went to the grocery store while it downloaded.

Protest Warriors

Engineer:

How do those payloads compare with, say the bombs dropped in Hiroshima or Nagasaki?

#61 john5z

How do those payloads compare with, say the bombs dropped in Hiroshima or Nagasaki?

Hiroshima was 12-15 kilotons and Nagasaki was 20 kt, a fraction of our current weapons.

With a simple design, that is about all you are going to get from a fission weapon.

#57 john5z:

jinnderella:

Shukran? Getting ready to convert?

OK, that's called seriously fuckingly funny.

Thanks Engineer.

I believe that those of you arguing that a pre-emptive attack is not an option, because of the placement of the nuclear sites, etc, are not thinking this through. Consider the alternative: Iran WILL launch either surreptitious (via terror) or even directly attributable nuclear attacks once they get nuclear weapons.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Those are risks -- definitely -- but I tend to think they would use the bomb more as NK is trying to -- that is, to gain political & economic concessions, and as a deterrent against any attempts from outside to overthrow the regime.

It's possible that they would hold Israel hostage and force some type of unpalatable settlement. Given that, I still don't think it's a given they're going to lob the thing as soon as they have it. It's worth more to them if they hold it as a threat, rather than toss it and risk being obliterated.

John5z: Umm, no. I'm still a practicing sociobiologist. But I am learning Iraqi dialect in oral tradition, and I have been criticised for being illiterate, (I can't read or write). So I am just practicing. I hope no one minds.

#65 Purple Fury: That's the problem-- Iran cannot easily be isolated like NK. Someone is going to have to do something. But every day of inaction that passes is going to make it tougher to eradicate the program completely.

#56 [Engineer]

That means that they are two years or so from having plutonium IF they can reprocess it which is not easy.

Actually, my understanding is that extracting plutonium from spent fuel is not that hard. You can use nitric acid and tri-butyl phosphate to separate it.

Oakridge National Laboratories

Max "Chemical Engineer" Darkside

ABC news reports increased terror chatter suggesting next al Qaeda attack could be suicide truck bombing(s) against Wall Street businesses.

This isn't that OT, as al Qaeda terrorists may be getting assistance from Iran, despite religious differences between Sunni and Shia.

OT
Arab News has an article on Bush Campaign Uses Nazi Ad on Website.
It's referring to the video on this page, "Kerry's Coalition of the Wild-Eyed." (scroll down)
I don't care for the ad myself. Are the Hitler images
from Soros' ad contest, or is the Bush campaign
comparing the Gore/Dean/et al rants to Hitler.
(Maybe this would be clearer on a fast connection-
can't read it very well on mine.)
Yeah, there's a certain similarity in oratorical style,
but having been outraged by the Bush-Hitler comparisons, I really don't think we should compare
Gore/Dean/et al to Hitler.

#66 jinnderella:

Not suggesting we adopt a NK-style approach to dealing with them. I'm saying that Iran, like NK, would first want to milk all the political capital it could before having to resort to detonating one.

Once Iran lobs a nuke (or a terrorist nuke is traced to Iran), it's game over. The mullahs know that.

THIS IN NO WAY means I don't think it's a problem, or that inaction is ok. It's just that I don't think Iran's first impulse will be to detonate its arsenal.

If it's any comfort, did anyone catch the piece via Hewitt about the 40 state Bush victory in Nov. aka "Flora MacDonald Syndrome?"

Kerry? OH! That Kerry..hmmm...

OT but I found this headline interesting Islamists involved in Uzbek suicide bombings From Reuters no less.

69 mary #1

The Bush people ran clips from a MoveOn.org Bush=Hilter ad, which led to the ridiculous accusation from the Kerry people.

BTW, IINM, Kerry hired the person from OveOn responsible for the Bush=Hitler ad as director of internet campaigning.

The Bushies have never compared any Dem to Hitler in any campaign ads.

jinnderella:

My ex-college roommates family was from lebanon and he was heavily involve in the canadian arab federation while in college. Heavily pro paleo. After graduating, he worked for a year, then got a scholarship to study arabic in bagdad. One year there, he said f it. This is a big mess and the paleos didn't want a resolution and the non-paleo arabs didn't want a solution. So he went to work in Kuwait where he did quite well until Sadamn's troops took everything away.

#67 Max Darkside: That is correct, and the NORKS are very good at it and have also sold technology to Iran.

#68 Ed Moran: You are never off topic! You just reminded me of Multispectral analysis!!
Some years ago I did IP for a NASA sensor called AVIRIS. The AVIRIS output is a data cube 256 x 256 x 256, it runs "dc to daylight", and each plane you extract represents a different band. You can see interesting things like plant effluvium in estatuaries and most important, IMHO, Krypton 85.
This gas is released as a byproduct of the uranium enrichment process. So, at least we can monitor releases.

Jinnderella:

Do we need Reaganite to monitor the Kryptonite?

Jinnderella:

It's OK that you're illiterate. Most of the Arab world and ones who can read might as well be illiterate.

#74 John5z: LOL, I don't plan to go to Baghdad! Learning arabic is for my research in pre-Islamic history and the Jahilyyah. It helps alot to hear and speak the odes and the short suras. :)

Engineer: the reason this situation is as serious (or more serious) than the Cuban Missile Crisis is that the Russians, despite having vastly greater firepower than the Iranians, operated within the coherent strutures of logic-based game theory. They didn't dare attack us lest they be completely annihilated in retaliation. The mullahs don't operate within our moral and philosophical structure. First of all, they don't believe we'll ever really retaliate, because they believe the West is "weak-willed" and pathetic (the Russians never believed similarly); and secondly because they don't care about life and will gladly allow millions of their own people to die. Then they'll just gain more "victimhood points." The Islamists are (from our moral framework) totally irrational -- even anti-rational. They could do something as insane as start a nuclear war just to make us look bad when we obliterate them.

To me, the preferred and most doable solution is to foment a revolution. Then we don't need to do anything militarily. The new government will (presumably) be much more pro-American and rational, and will voluntarily dismantle their nuclear program. Iran has never had a reasonable, moderate democratic government, and the young people (well over half the population) are desparately yearning for it. Police states don't last forever. Iran is past its due date. And they've had revolutions in the past -- nothing is stopping them from having another. In fact, as the lefties love to point out, the CIA instigated the revolution that brought the Shah to power in the first place. We have experience starting revolutions in Iran. Time to put that experience to use.

John5z! LOL!

Do we need Reaganite to monitor the Kryptonite?

Well, since Reaganite and all our armed forces are superheroes in my book-- I am very sure he's capable! :)

Well, certainly Off Topic, but on a much more positive note, the results of the Israeli Election are in, and the Jewish Leadership party has taken 73% of the vote!

Yay! Tune in here for up-to-date coverage! (They're waiting for the new Prime Minister's speech...)

@76 john5z

*LMAO!

#79 zombie--

they don't care about life and will gladly allow millions of their own people to die.

Yup. Like Dr. Krauthammer sez, "How do you fight an enemy that loves death?" Detente won't work. Something must be done, but I haven't seen any serious solutions yet.

BTW, have you finished your Games Theory book yet?

256 x 256 x 256

That is like (16^2)^3

or ((4^2)^2)^3
or (((2)^2)^2)^2)^3

Moral: None.

LGF is sleepy for a Saturday night, even as poorly organized Tropical Depression #1 drifts towards the Carolinas. Just enough northerly shear to keep the thunderstorms south of the low level circulation, as seen on the IR satellite loop. If you look closely, north of the enhanced thunderstorms (shown by the "warmest" colors, which correspond to the coldest cloud tops) is the grayish colored low cloud swirl at the center of the depression. This may not even get named.

About Tuesday, I was getting excited as models suggested a cyclone developing in the Gulf and menacing Louisiana. Well, northerly shear and dry air kept the weak surface low that did develop near Key West from strengthening, and it has missed its chance to hit New Orleans, as it is being steered by the low level westerly flow. Notice this close up enhanced satellite loop of the Gulf (on this one, warm colors are warm, so most vigorous storms are dark blue) shows the shear may finally be letting up, allowing some organization. However, this is running out of time, as it will be into the Mexican coast well south of Brownsville, TX sometime Monday, but it has a decent shot of becoming the second tropical depression (and a lesser chance at being either the first or second (Alex or Bonnie, depending on the East Coast system) tropical storm of the year.

I don't think revolutions can be ordered up on demand and planned for delivery on a timetable. That's wishful thinking. The mullahs have locked down their country with a series of military, militia and terror organizations. More to the point, they've been successful in suppressing all attempts even to reform the political process, let alone overthrow the regime.

We're going to have to wipe out their program militarily, either in response or by pre-emption.

Given the behavior and rhetoric of Iran's leadership, it's pretty clear that it's only a matter of when, not if, and in the near future.

HOpefully, when the time comes, we won't hear about it until after it takes place--no more public debates, international coalitions, and the rest of the PC bullshit.

#79 Zombie Fighting an enemy who is completely dedicated to his task without any fear of casualties is a bitch, I imagine. Hopefully the US Armed Forces can accomodate their desire to meet their maker posthaste.

I agree on formenting revolutions, but we'll have to be willing to help,even up to invading. So other revolutionaries trust us .

Ed Moran, #84

My sister in Wilmington, NC is already getting nervous.

The solution to the Iranian problem is exactly what we are doing:

Allowing the EU "3" to crash and burn and thus further discredit this type of approach to proliferation problems in the future.

In this next several months, this thing will come up before the UNSC and they'll have no choice but to impose sanctions. We'll provide various types of support to elements in Iran who want to overthrow the mullahs. We'll hope that pro-democracy reformers come to power before any operational weapons are produced (I'm pessimistic about the odds of this, though). More likely, is the crisis will drag out several years, until the impact of the sanctions starts to hurt, and the reformers gain more support as a result.

I'm sure that even as we speak, the military is preparing contingency plans for joint US-Israeli strategic and special forces strikes to seize and/or disable the facilities. There will probably need to be strategic strikes as well as covert and SF ops to get the things that can't be hit with strategic (but non-nuke) weapons.

We will not use nukes pre-emptively in Iran. Count on it.

Ed:
I'm not a math wiz, but doesn't 256 = 2^8?

87 Paul

If I lived in Wilmington, I'd worry more about the well developed tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic that could be a full blown hurricane in a week and a half as it approaches somewhere along the East Coast, and less about TD #1, which worst case is a 50 mph tropical storm when it hits. Less wind than many Spring time thunderstorms in Texas.

Ed:

Then that means that:

256 * 256 * 256 = 2^24

Wow, that is awesome. Now, what do we do with it?

At this point you've got to consider the likelihood they are just pretending to be in pre-development mode while they work on more advanced phases, such as concealment and distribution of in-the-box weapons through their jihadi/shaheed network.

Due its strategic value and upwind location, Congressman McDermott's district remains a prime target for their first strike.

How ironic.

OT: Mark Steyn rips JFK a new one (from the Telegraph-- not the Sun Times article posted earlier:

"He was complacent, arrogant and humourless. How they loved him":

Last year, I was at a Kerry campaign stop in New Hampshire chatting with two old coots in plaid. The Senator approached and stopped in front of us. The etiquette in primary season is that the candidate defers to the cranky Granite Stater's churlish indifference to status and initiates the conversation: "Hi, I'm John Kerry. Good to see ya. Cold enough for ya?" Etc. But Kerry just stood there nose to nose, staring at us with a semi-glare on his face. After an eternity, an aide stepped out from behind him and said, "The Senator needs you to move."

"Well, why couldn't he have said that?" muttered one of the old coots, as Kerry swept past us.

That's how I felt after the Convention: all week Senators Biden, Lieberman and Edwards made the case that the Democrats were credible on national security. Why couldn't Kerry have said that?

Because in the end he's running for President because he feels he ought to be President. That's his message to George W Bush: "The Senator needs you to move." And even then everyone else says it better.

[Link: www.telegraph.co.uk...]

#79 zombie:

To me, the preferred and most doable solution is to foment a revolution.

The perfect place for memetic engineering in action!! You can do the visuals, and I'll do the aurals!! Shall we make a plan? :)

89

Isn't that the meaning of (((2)^2)^2)^2
(IE, two squared is four, squared is sixteen, squared again 256)

On the other hand, I could be wrong as I'm well past my bedtime and long time removed from algebra classes.

#92 Zack

Due its strategic value and upwind location, Congressman McDermott's district remains a prime target for their first strike.

And it's the closest 48-State major metro area to the NORK's nukes, too.

95 Ed:

so it is, so it is.

always good to get a different viewpoint.

goodnight all. sweet dreams.

I don't know, but I think it means something.

Never been much at math. I mean, I wasn't bad at it, but the boredom/confusion factor reached critical mass in a class called "Systems of Linear Differential Equations".

If you ever really want to understand the flow of a three phase system (oil, gas, water, all having different properties, such as viscosity, and all affecting each others ability to flow through a porous media as the saturation of one affects the permeability of the others), in three dimensions, in a heterogeneous reservoir, you need to know that.

And thus, I'll never work at Shell or Exxon's research labs developing the latest reservoir simulation models.

Night all

Question since I am one lazy SOB...what is the deal with Kerry pissing off some devil dogs eating lunch?

Was there a thread about it or a story that someone has the link to ?

Thanks in advance.

RWC, you lazy bastard, just refresh LGF and scroll down a few posts.

@98 Ed Moran weatherman exemplar

I agree, finding the head for a new system utilizing a centrifugal pump is much more interesting.

#102 quark2

That is dirty.

I need to go wash my eyes out with soap. You know, I was a man of virtue before I started visiting LFG (sic).

#101 RightIsRight

OK, I refreshed and all that came up was this:

RWC, you lazy bastard, just refresh LGF and scroll down a few posts.

Should I say that I am lazy AND stupid ???

Night all-- here is some more Iraqi practice:
fiimaanillaa-- that means 'good-bye', but also literally, 'in God's keeping'. May all your gods keep you safe. :)

OK, OK, I got it...

Should I say that I am lazy AND stupid ???

Well...

I'd still buy you a beer or 10.

Actually, it was partially my bad.

I should have stated "threads" instead of "posts".

Damned ethanol.

Anywho, as I tried to post before...

I was at a party with some old friends of mine today. A buddy who is NYPD was there with some of his cohorts. I asked them if they were working the GOP convention.

They all answered in the affirmative. When I pressed for details, they balked a bit. When I brought up the issue of douchebags planting false "bombs" to distract the dogs and their handlers, they got agitated. After a few more cold ones, I pulled my buddy aside to get the scoop.

Suffice it to say, these guys are willing to work overtime at the convention sans pay.

#103 RIR

Ya thunk so? :)

Working round them systems are dirty by the way.

I'm crying uncle...my eyes are full of sand. And I have a drive to make in the morning...to meet with some of the texicanius lizardoid minions. :)

While John F. Kerry parades around making America safer and pissing off Marines trying to eat lunch, Iran Says It Resumes Building Nuclear Centrifuges.

Remind me - who's in charge of the country NOW? Oh right, Bush! Well thank God Bush is a take-charge, no-nonsense, decisive guy who won't let those pansy Europeans, those untrustworthy Muslims or the weasely UN stand in the way of American security! Unlike that waffling, hand-wringing, UN-kowtowing, Euro-ass-kissing Kerry, that's for sure. Thank God he's not running the show.

What? You say Bush is dealing with the Iranians through the UN? And the Europeans are equal partners in the talks? And an ARAB is in charge of the UN nuclear weapons agency? How can that be?

I'm so confused...

#94 jinnderella

#79 zombie:
To me, the preferred and most doable solution is to foment a revolution.

The perfect place for memetic engineering in action!! You can do the visuals, and I'll do the aurals!! Shall we make a plan? :)

Well, actually, the memes are already in place. There is massive discontent in Iran and in ex-pat Iranians. They know exactly what's wrong and what they want to do to kick the mullahs out. The problem isn't in creating the concept through memetic engineering, in this case -- the problem is carrying it out. As others have pointed out, the religious police-state in Iran is extreme, and most forms of dissent are crushed. I've seen a documentary about the networking between young Iranian-Americans and wannabe rebels within Iran, and it was both heartening and disheartening at the same time. The people are there, the ideas are there, the will is there. But at the moment they are unable to overcome the violent repression tactics. It could happen though, it could. I think the Romanian "revolution" is the best prototype to work from: start with a student uprising in a provincial town (like happened in Timosoara) and use it a a signal and inspiration for the spirit to spread to the capital. Masive uprisings in simultaneous places around the country will embolden everyone and overwhelm the response mechanism. Once a "tipping point" is reached, the government collapses inward.

#83 jinnderella  7/31/2004 09:52PM PST
  have you finished your Games Theory book yet?

I wish. It's still in the "conceptual phase," to put it euphemistically. In other words, I haven't written the first word. But it will address this very problem: how to devise a viable game theory to accommodate non-rational actors, or actors whose goals are outside our frame of reference. We need to take a step backward and realize that we need to reassess some implicit assumptions in standard game theory -- i.e. that each party will strive, in the most efficient way, to acheive a sensical "victory condition." If one is engaged wih an opponent whose "victory condition" is incomprehensible or paradoxical, and whose means for achieving it are self-defeating or idiotic, then all traditional game theory is useless and goes right out the window. Our theoreticians need to define the superset of conditional analysis of which current game theory is only a subset.

It might be too big of a task for me.

Oh, by the way: if anyone here wants to see some brilliant insights into the failures of game theory, and also grok why any attempts at artificial intelligence will always be futile, check out a copy of the classic British film The Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner. No, it's not about wars or politics or computers. But the message and the significance of the climactic scene is deep in the extreme. Very, very highly recommended.

The European Union - The Metrosexual Superpower

American neoconservatives such as Robert Kagan look down upon feminine, Venus-like Europeans, gibing their narcissistic obsession with building a postmodern, bureaucratic paradise. The United States, by contrast, supposedly carries the mantle of masculine Mars, boldly imposing freedom in the world's nastiest neighborhoods. But by cleverly deploying both its hard power and its sensitive side, the European Union (EU) has become more effective—and more attractive—than the United States on the catwalk of diplomatic clout. Meet the real New Europe: the world's first metrosexual superpower.

My mother had a dream of mushroom clouds an angel looking down on the earth and a Muslam mother crying while on her knees. Before she told me this she asked me how close are we to a nuke war I told her very close.

zombie:

any attempts at artificial intelligence will always be futile

I had a computer science prof who suggested a different explanation, which was, as soon as the field of AI had solved a given problem (or made sufficient progress on it), it was no longer considered part of AI. For example, in the late 50s and 60s it was thought that AI meant that a computer could defeat a human at master's level chess. In the 70s and 80s, if a computer could perform medical diagnosis (and solve other "expert" problems). In the 90s, certain types of pattern recognition, machine vision, and autonomous navigation. As the solutions for these problems have moved into the mainstream, they've ceased to be considered part of AI.

Basically, he felt, by definition, AI was unattainable.

In truth, AI is something of a passe/retro term in computer science. It has splintered into numerous subdisciplines.

My 1/2 cent:

Once one has an operational reactor, extracting the plutonium in a batch type process is not difficult with the huge proviso that one accepts the extreme risk. The Russians demonstrated this willingness with the huge radiological accidents they suffered in their early bomb experiments. The Iranians demonstrated the proper mindset when they sent children ahead of troops and vehicles to detonate minefields in the Iraq war. A workable reactor (ie. magnox, or CANDU) can be constructed from natural unenriched uranium. The plans were not classified. 90% of the effort is involved with safety and stability, and the project is that much easier if both are dispensed with.

The greatest weakness of the plutonium process is the need for a fixed, easily monitored vulnerable reactor. I believe Iran is pursuing the much more expensive and technically challenging U235 enrichment because it presents a much more difficult target. The infrastructure can be dispersed so that it does not have the one or two critical nodes necessary for a successful Osirik type strike.

Even if the majority of the sites are destroyed with bunker busters, it is unlikely that the program will be permanently or even greatly delayed. The past bombing campaigns have demonstrated that is impossible to ensure that the machine tools and components are destroyed rather than just buried. Massive raids in WWII usually destroyed buildings and disrupted immediate production, but seldom produced any lasting results. The exception was the lucky strike at Pennemunde where a large portion of the technical staff was killed by accident.

If we are going to set Iran's program back to zero (or nearly so), it will take some type of ground op. A force will have to briefly take each site and force entry. The machine tools, computers and components identified and destroyed. All technical personnel must be captured or killed. This is a very, very unlikely scenario. The next best thing is a revolution. All the talk, sanctions etc will be useless.

Bush could buy some time, playing on his worldwide rep for being reckless. Make a speech on national TV, seemingly aimed at the domestic audience, announcing that Iran's program must be stopped and America will do what is right and necessary, pointedly adding even if it costs me the election. The last statement is the important part, conveying the deadly seriousness of the threat by playing to the despots' worldview of clinging to power at all costs.

I do agree that Iran with a bomb is definitely worse than the Norks and potentially worse than the Cuban missile crisis. We need to get all of the poindexters in the State Dept to test their detente and MAD theories on a group of paranoid schizophrenics (watch Brad Pitt's character in 12 Monkeys). The mullahs and Islamonazis have a reality as alien to us as any in a secure mental ward.

#114 Smith Space Technologies

Sorry, I don't think we are anywhere near a nuclear war. We would have to have a devastating attack in the United States (100k+ dead) for a politician to grow a pair to unleash them. And even with those casualties, I seriously doubt the hammer would be brought down.

RWC
I agree. I think the question is not whether we will retaliate in kind if a US city is nuked but how many cities must be nuked before we respond.

#115 Purple Fury: By "artificial intelligence" I was referring to creating an artificial thinking system that would be exactly equivalent to or indistinguishable from a human being's thinking system. And not just in a carefully circumscribed field (like chess or diagnosis) but overall, in an all-emcompassing way. I would consider that artificial intelligence would truly be achieved when a computer, asked to solve a difficult mathematical equation, came back with the answer, "F*ck you -- I'm sick of doing math." A computer playing a chess match against a pretty girl will win every game because that's what it's programmed to do. A human grandmaster playing a match against a pretty girl might very well lose some games semi-on-purpose in hopes of getting some action later on. With humans, motivations sometimes change in the middle of actions; the "rules of engagement" can change from moment to moment. Is it a game of chess -- or is it a romantic flirtation? It is this subtlety which pervades every human activity and decision that can never be emulated by a computer because a computer never has the same desires -- shifting desires at that -- as a human.

Is anyone still up??? It's 3:30 AM here...just woke up

It's not Israel's fault this time

A defiant Iran yesterday said it had resumed building nuclear centrifuges, saying the move was retaliation for the failure of three European powers to get its file closed at the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

Zombie, I just woke up with insomnia and read this

We need to take a step backward and realize that we need to reassess some implicit assumptions in standard game theory -- i.e. that each party will strive, in the most efficient way, to acheive a sensical "victory condition."

yesyesyesyes! The jihaadiis do not behave logically, the two person zero sum game fails to fit-- but they do behave organically!! The strategy of sacrificing an individual to kill many competitors-- right out of Sir Richard-- can you concieve of an "organic game theory"? I think you could adapt some of the populatiom genetic equations to fit the model! Am I insane? A true hybrid science-- organic game theory!

Purple Fury, Zombie-- has the Holy Turing test been discarded in favor of some other paradigm?

120 Andrew B.
Is anyone still up??? It's 3:30 AM here...just woke up

Hi Andrew I don't know but I'm about to go to sleep. I had a big day and I'll have a big day tomrrow (Sunday) yes yes Sunday is here so I'll go to sleeZZZzzzp

wow people are still up? OMG!!! You guys must be from the LEFT coast...it's like 4:00 am here I have to get up in 3 hours for work...lol

How about a little humor this early...? eh?

Graduation Day in Gaza

or

Iraqis Erecting Wall to Keep Freaks Out (Note the Irony here)

Andrew B.

#122 jinnderella

yesyesyesyes! The jihaadiis do not behave logically, the two person zero sum game fails to fit-- but they do behave organically!! The strategy of sacrificing an individual to kill many competitors-- right out of Sir Richard-- can you concieve of an "organic game theory"? I think you could adapt some of the populatiom genetic equations to fit the model! Am I insane? A true hybrid science-- organic game theory!

You may or may not be insane (that's not for me to decide) but organic game thoery is an interesting path to try -- though the mathematics of it is beyond my capacities. But I think the problem goes beyond even that approach. There is no such thing as a two-person zero-sum game, in reality. There are always external factors influencing each individual's actions. Say, for example, you were in a duel with a peaceaholic Buddhist monk. You step forward and say "En garde!", and he proceeds to light himself on fire to protest the very notion of duels. His action is meant to influence other people that are not even supposedly part of this "two person conflict." Who won that game? The Palestinians will commit a meaningless atrocity for the very purpose of precipitating a devastating retaliation on the part of the Israelis. Why? Because in their worldview being an oppressed victim is part of their "victory condition." The more oppressed they appear, they greater support they receive from Europeans guilty about their own historical oppression of colonial subjects; and so on. How in the world can stuff like this be modeled in game theory? It's very tough. You call it "Organic Game Theory," But I propose "Evolutionary Game Theory" as perhaps more precise.

#119 zombie:

Understand. I believe you are pulling on the distinction between intelligence and consciousness. The latter is extremely slippery, as we have just the dimmest knowledge of what it is. Plus, there are some very interesting debates about how or even if one could recognize a self-aware machine if one were able to create one. Not to mention the philosophical question about if a machine appeared to be self-aware but was not, would it matter?

#123 jinnderella:

Re: Turing. Yikes. Can of worms. Google it :) It's still talked about (there's an annual contest in England I think), but it's controversial.

If you're really interested, check this out.

This is completely OT:

Or maybe it isn't because it applies to this situation as well. I thought I'd write about the anti-Semitic condemnation which won't pass in the U.N. because of the Arab states. And then, I realized that my analogy equally applies to how the Muslim world is soon going to have one of their craziest countries in possession of the most destructive weapon known to mankind:

Battlestar Europa

It isn't about the Iranians, but if you don't see the analogy, you should be on the bridge of the Battlestar Europa. :)

OT: Grenade thrown from car in downtown Prague injures 16-17. Police believe the incident was related to crime.

zombie: There are maths that describe self-organizing systems and genetic algorithms, and the behavoir of genes and memes in populations. Sociobiologists like Wilson and Dawkins believe the population genetics equations can predict behavoiral things like skirt lengths!

How in the world can stuff like this be modeled in game theory? It's very tough.

We've had this discussion before, --you know I believe that if we could achieve sufficient granularity we could model the world. There is a biological basis for all behavior! So, maybe Evolutionary Game Theory can't achieve a perfect representation. Yet. But what if you could change the representation enough to improve it significantly? Not perfect but better?

If you like, email me and I'll hook you up with some intro stuff.

Purple Fury: The Turing test doesn't test for sentient behavoir, but only the appearance of it--but you're right, maybe there is no difference. :)

OT
Surrealistic LA Times series on "Muslims in Los Vegas." Sort of like: "Jews in Mecca"
[Link: www.latimes.com...]

By Peter H. King, Times Staff Writer

LAS VEGAS — There must be easier places for a Muslim to follow the straight path to paradise. Islam forbids gambling, alcohol, public nudity, fornication. Las Vegas banks on them, promoting its Sin City reputation as vigorously as Southern California boosters once pitched sunshine and oranges.

"What happens here, stays here," winks the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority in a national advertising campaign. The cityscape is awash in straightforward invitations to adult frolic. Seminude vixens beckon from freeway billboards, taxicab placards and newspaper racks, taking seductive bites out of apples, coiling themselves around serpents, posing seven across, hip to bare hip, buttocks flexed.

What's a good Muslim to do? "Lower your gaze," an imam intoned in his sermon, or khutbah, before prayers one Friday last spring. "Especially you young brothers. Out there" — he pointed vaguely in the direction of the Strip — "you must lower your gaze..."

#116 deadman: Wow, that was a really excellent post! It is quite the most cogent one I've read so far.

Bush could buy some time, playing on his worldwide rep for being reckless. Make a speech on national TV, seemingly aimed at the domestic audience,

Memetic warfare! But how about adding a dash of Aggressive Deterrent and we strike and seal the entrances to a few selected sites, just to send a message?

I am so *happy* that you are another SeaLab head like me, and also so brilliant. :-)

But I am never alone, right Marduk?

Hope you got to see it last night-- it was a double! :)

sabaah il-kheer, Camel Prophet.

"Especially you young brothers. Out there" — he pointed vaguely in the direction of the Strip — "you must lower your gaze..."

heh. That is so light-hearted and funny of you!!! Thank you for posting that! :)

OT
Sudan Says Meeting UN Demands Will Be 'Difficult'
yahoo

This headline is nothing more than a bullshit put-off, to a bullshit put-off organization, the u.n. It does nothing more then sooth the soul, (niether has a soul, I know) stall, obfuscate and continue right on with the killing of innocents by islamists.

That's the 'in thing', in a world to damn stupid to recognize and do anything about the killing of innocents by islam. The only thing standing in the way of this 'in thing' is the George Bush, Tony Blair, John Howard, et al, 'the coalition of the willing', to stand up to the islamists.

God help the world, should these governments change, as ours could with the election, of the worlds number one bullshit 'put-off' artist john kerry, who would be for helping before he was against helping.

This same article goes on to say;
FRENCH TROOPS TO HELP AID EFFORT
French President Jacques Chirac said some 200 of the country's 450 troops in its former colony Chad would be redeployed to help deliver humanitarian supplies and ensure security for refugees.
BUT here is the 'nuanced' part, you know the fwench and john kerry part, Paris did not intend to send any additional troops .

Mean while the same article continues with this FIGHTING SPREADS EAST .

On Topic

My opinion FWIW, IS...do the same thing to Iran, as Iran is doing against the coalition in Iraq and Afghanistan, that is to infiltrate Iran with as many insurgents (read CIA, Mossad trained types) and Anti-Mullah forces as can possibly be had.

This would force Iran to deal with the same situation it has created in Iraq and Afghanistan, on it's own territory. Iran's military, while armed with more sophistication, is no more proficent then it was when faced with gaining 'two feet' of it's own territory, in fighting saddams 'warriors'.

With Iran's 'military' pinned down defending territory, it's 'defense' of nuclear facilities would be weakened. This would enable crack professional forces, to include Israeli's, American's, Brit's, Aussie's, to infiltrate Iran's nuclear areas and disrupt or destroy these dangerous areas.

All we have to do is get OUR State Department 'out of the loop', Israel is more than prepared, I'm sure the Brit's are, as are the others.

At least two things would be accomplished, One, no nuclear explosions in the area would 'occur', Two, the Iranian people would have their chance to join the battle and finally rid themselves of the 'mullah factor'.

The beneficiary of all of this...ummm, the World.

A Muslim on Dhimmiwatch posted the following holocaust denial website:

[Link: www.jihadwatch.org...]

[Link: home.att.net...]

I have written B'nai Brith International and notified them of it; however, I post it here in the hope that, if the B'nai Brith cannot get it removed, that some computer savvy person who frequents this website can effect its removal.

Yours sincerely,

Mentat

N.Y. Police Issue Terror-Threat Warning

But ABC News, citing anonymous sources, reported Saturday night that al-Qaida planned to send terrorists across the Mexican border into the United States, and that suicide attacks were being planned in the city, possibly using trucks.

I feel sick at the thought.

Mentat, I'm going to send a link to the Simon Wiesenthal Center too.

#135 Mentat: Shukran for the linkage! It seems you are a good mentat after all. :-)

Zombie, if you see this-- email me-- I would be estatic to help you with the maths! I'll be around later, I have Rennaissance Festival duties this am. :-)

#138 jinnderella

Zombie, if you see this-- email me

Sorry, no can do. Major security concerns. Only Charles knows my email address here (and even that is a secondary address). And thus it shall ever be. If you knew my situation, you'd understand.

#139 zombie: Oh, mit'assif (sorry)-- *stupid thoughtless*
Could Charles forward a "white paper" to you if I sent it to him? Or would it just get lost in the trackless wasteland of his 4 thousand unreads?

I think I shall write it anyways, for fun, because i have the afternoon off and some good ideas (IMHO).

It is real frickin' hot here, Mad Montague couldn't even wear his "dress", so we just did First Procession and came home. So, let me know! :)

Oh I see, it's Kerry's fault the Iranians are producing nuclear weapons. And what exactly is the president doing about it or has done about it for 3 1/2 years in office? From what I see he is also campaigning instead of dealing with this issue, but apparently that doesn't bother you. You speak as if Kerry were the president instead of Bush.

#111 zombie: Inspiring thoughts, but the model of Romania does not fit for Irans oil economy. Some of the export-based economies of the European Union have become dependent on the mad mullahs as customers. This is not exactly the same circumstances as the Comecon in the late 1980s. If there was the economical crisis of Europe in the current political context of Iran or the political crisis of Iran in the current economical context of Europe then it might be a revolutionary situation, but for the time being I doubt that the United Nations will enforce sanctions to drive a wedge between Europe and Iran. Germany backs Irans accession to the WTO, and since a few weeks the former WTO chief Horst Köhler is President of this country.

If you want to focus the Iran nuclear situation in terms of game theory, draw a parallel to roulette: It is not only one color or another that can win, it is also possible that the bank might win - the bigel scenario of planetary self-destruction to nobodys benefit. As soon as we see nature as the bank in a game with rival players, the strategies of the participants in the game may decisively vary over whether they actually play against nature or only against other participants. The time dimension comes in when we add the option that nature can change the rules of the game by its moves. This happens when new technologies are discovered. It might also happen that a player who ignores nature and only plays against the rivals might not notice a changing of rules, while on the other hand another player might be aware of the law of unintended consequences. Best example here is how Nazi anti-Semitism became an obstacle to their nuclear program.

#141 Laura

Do you actually read the comments here?

I'll give you one gift:

What the President is doing is exactly what his critics constantly accuse him of NOT doing, namely following a multilateral diplomatic course of action. This presently involves 3 countries: GB, France, and Germany. The EU "3" have been pressuring -- with spectacular degrees of non-success -- Iran into halting its nuclear program.

What is likely to happen, is that the efforts of the "3" will fail, the issue will be brought to the UNSC, and sanctions will be imposed. With any luck, the pressure of the sanctions will improve the odds of an internal revolution -- if you spend any time in the blogosphere you know that there is a great deal of internal agitation for democratic reforms, and a number of pro-Western movements inside Iran. The mullahs do not enjoy widespread popular support, and keep power only thru strongarm tactics.

I believe the Bush admin is pursing exactly the right course: allowing the EU "3" efforts to crash and burn, and doing everything possible to increase pressure on the Iranian theocracy so that internal forces will overthrow the regime. That would be a better outcome than the US having to do it by force, wouldn't you agree?

That said, most of us here are quite certain that both the US and Israeli militaries are developing contingency plans that call for the seizure and disruption of Iran's nuclear facilities, in the event that other methods fail. The concern shared by many here is that Iran has apparently learned from the Osirak episode in Iraq in 1981, and has concealed and dispersed its nuclear infrastructure. Most of us here believe it will take a significant ground operation, in addition to targeted strategic airstrikes, to eliminate the threat.

Your post seems to express some frustration with Bush. Are you arguing for an aggressive US military intervention in Iran? Or some other alternative?

Mr. Kerry has been rather silent on the subject, strangely. Maybe you have some insight into what *he* would like to do? If so, please share it with us.

Many of us here listened to his Thursday night speech very closely, hoping to here what his plans for either Iran or North Korea were, or even how he planned to address the problem of Islamist terrorism. He didn't so much as mention a single word about these problems by name.

#142 leo:

Interesting concept about nature being a third party.

I just watched a documentary about the start of WWI -- the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand. Apparently, the first attempt by the Serbian thugs failed, and it was only by dumb "luck" that the Archduke's driver took a wrong turn hours later (after surviving the first botched attempt without a scratch), and drove right by the bakery where the would-be assasin had just stepped outside for a smoke.

Makes you wonder.

#143

Geez.

Last paragraph. "Hoping to hear", not "here".

The essential story from Iran: the Mullahs are going for the bomb in every manner.

U-235 is substantially more expensive than PU-239. Essentially all Soviet, American, British, French, Chinese...weapons are based on Plutonium.

BTW Plutonium is NEVER 'highly enriched'; it is intrinsically pure when deliberately produced in production reactors or CANDU reactors...

Highly enriched U-235 is of benefit for only one type of bomb: the site-assembled or pack-back bomb.

So, Iranian intentions are clear: they plan a first strike with stealth nukes based on Uranium.

There is much, much, much, much...reason to worry.

Plainly, the Mullahs are already at battle stations...

When the attack comes it will be culture terminating...

#144 Purple Fury: You can find more on that concept in the writings of Stanislaw Lem:

Who causes what? Technology - us, or rather we - the technology? Does technology take us where it wants to, possibly even to doom, or are we able to force it to submit to our endeavor? But what, if not technological ideas, determines that endeavor? Is it always the same, or is the relationship "mankind - technology" subject to historical changes? If so, where does this unknown quantity tend to?

#147 leo:

Thanks for the referral to the work of Lem -- I had never read any of his work before.

I'm even more fascinated by the Wikipedia link to the article on Anti-Germans...

Btw, I can't help but thinking that the Hindus have another word for the bank in your roulette analogy. They call her Kali.