SurveyUSA reports that the number of Americans who believe President Bush will win reelection in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities across the United States: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention. (Hat tip: Kevin P.)

SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture “momentum” swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.

Examples:

— In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.

— In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.

— In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.

Each poll was conducted of an entire metropolitan area, known as a TV market, and defined by Nielsen Media Research as the “Designated Market Area” (DMA). In no metropolitan area, in any part of the country, did Kerry’s numbers go up. Four separate polls of 500 adults each were conducted in 30 TV markets and in 2 states. (128 discrete pieces of opinion research; 64,000 separate telephone interviews.) Each survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5%.

The polls were conducted:

— 7/22/04: The week before the DNC

— 7/30/04: The day after Kerry’s acceptance speech

— 8/26/04: The week before the RNC

— 9/3/04: The day after Bush’s acceptance speech.

“The Democrats are eviscerated,” says Jay H. Leve, Editor of SurveyUSA. “Even in the most solidly Democratic corners of this country, a majority of adults suddenly believe that George W. Bush will win in November.”

No wonder Teresa got a stomach ache.

Late Saturday, Teresa Heinz Kerry, the wife of the Democratic presidential candidate, was taken to a hospital in Mason City, Iowa, after complaining of an upset stomach, a spokeswoman said. She was taken to Mercy Medical Center-North Iowa by ambulance from the airport.

“As a precaution, Mrs. Heinz Kerry had a series of routine tests performed and was released,” said Sarah Geggenheimar, a spokeswoman for Heinz Kerry. “She is feeling better and is traveling to her home in Pittsburgh tonight as planned.”