Michael Ledeen looks at the pending outcome of the Iranian sham election, and concludes with another intriguing possibility: Manny, Moe & Rafsanjani.

The “reformers” are going to back Rafsanjani, and the “hard liners” will go all out for their man Ahmadinejad. As I have said before, the presidency of the Islamic republic is a symbolic office rather than a position of real power, but the election night fiasco suggests that very powerful people are unwilling to play the old game. They could not tolerate the presence of even such dubious figures as Karroubi and Moein in a runoff, and while it is hard to imagine they have serious problems with Rafsanjani — who in his earlier term as president ordered numerous terrorist actions and supervised the vicious crackdown on rebellious students and intellectuals — who knows? Once this sort of internal fission begins, it may elude the efforts of canny politicians to contain it. Even if they are masters of deceit and manipulation. We’ll know in a week. But already the Iranian people have been treated to the spectacle of a regime at once incompetent and divided. Remember that Machiavelli warned his prince that the most dangerous development for any leader is to be held in contempt by his underlings.

Meanwhile, the director of central intelligence gently reminded us — or so it appears — that we have profound problems to resolve with the mullahs. Time asked him how we were doing in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. He replied that the matter was rather more complicated than one might imagine. He was quite sure he knew where the master terrorist was located, and I think he told us that bin Laden is in Iran. Judge for yourself:

…we have some weak links…until we strengthen all the links, we’re probably not going to be able to bring Mr. bin Laden to justice. We are making very good progress on it. But when you go to the very difficult question of dealing with sanctuaries in sovereign states, you’re dealing with a problem of our sense of international obligation, fair play…

Is he not saying that bin Laden is in a sanctuary in a sovereign state? And what state could that be? If bin Laden were in Afghanistan or Pakistan, it wouldn’t seem to be such a vexing problem as Goss suggests. But Iran, now that’s a problem. Indeed the biggest problem in the war against terrorism.