Katrina and Kyoto
Charles Johnson
Thu Sep 1, 2005 at 4:55 pm PDT • Views: 297
An LGF reader just emailed a serious smackdown of the Kyoto Protocol Chorus:
There is a lot of hysterical posturing from the “reality-based community,” claiming that if the US had signed Kyoto, Hurricane Katrina would not have happened.
But in the real real world, here’s what would have happened if the Kyoto Protocol had gone into effect this year (6 months ago):
1. The increase in CO2 without Kyoto would be about 1 ppm.
2. The US contribution would have been 0.25 ppm.
3. If the US had reduced its emissions immediately on Feb 17 to 7% below 1990 levels, or about 20% below present levels, the CO2 contribution would be reduced by 0.05 ppm.
4. Using an IPCC sensitivity of 3 C for a CO2 doubling, the reduction in temperature would have been 0.00057 C, a ridiculously small number.
5. No measurable effect on weather or hurricances would have occurred.
6. Following the Kyoto advocates’ wishes, the above course of action would have reduced US GDP by 2 to 4% and would cost about $100B to $200B dollars, compared to Katrinas cost of about $25B.
On a cost/benefit basis, their arguments make no sense.
P.S. You can say these numbers come from a climatologist who was active in the field for more than 30 years.
Frank says: