You’d never know it from the mainstream media, but US troop casualties are decreasing rapidly in Iraq—and the infamous “Ramadan spike” has gone missing.

This year, for the first time since our troops have been in Iraq, the Ramadan Spike has failed to materialize. Few events in Iraq were as predictable as the yearly rise in causalities it signified. In 2004, 2005, and 2006, shortly before and during the autumn months in which Ramadan has recently occurred, violence against US forces escalated significantly.

Not this year.

The missing Ramadan Spike is an immutable sign that Iraq has entered a new phase. What seemed to be an unstoppable cycle of violence has diminished. Ramadan began either on September 12th or 13th of 2007, depending on your source. As of this writing Ramadan is more than halfway over. Not only has the monthly U.S. death toll decreased since August (barring any spectacular attacks or accidents before the end of the month) but within the month the daily death toll appears to have actually slowed down over Ramadan.

The Ramadan Spike has become the Ramadan Slump.

UPDATE at 10/1/07 9:44:10 am:

Well, what do you know. Pushed out on the newswire 15 minutes ago: US, Iraqi civilian deaths fall sharply. And I don’t even see a “BUT” lurking in here.

BAGHDAD - Deaths among American forces and Iraqi civilians fell dramatically last month to their lowest levels in more than a year, according to figures compiled by the U.S. military, the Iraqi government and The Associated Press.

The decline signaled a U.S. success in bringing down violence in Baghdad and surrounding regions since Washington completed its infusion of 30,000 more troops on June 15.

A total of 64 American forces died in September — the lowest monthly toll since July 2006.

The decline in Iraqi civilian deaths was even more dramatic, falling from 1,975 in August to 922 last month, a decline of 53.3 percent. The breakdown in September was 844 civilians and 78 police and Iraqi soldiers, according to Iraq’s ministries of Health, Interior and Defense.

In August, AP figures showed 1,809 civilians and 155 police and Iraqi soldiers were killed in sectarian violence.

The civilian death toll has not been so low since June 2006, when 847 Iraqis died.