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Not Quite a Global Warming Flip-Flop

Sun, Jul 20, 2008 at 2:01:41 pm PDT

To mix a metaphor, I was waiting for the other shoe to drop before jumping on the bandwagon. I’m referring to the paper submitted to the American Physical Society by Christopher Monckton, claiming that the IPCC’s estimate of the Earth’s climate sensitivity (the amount of warming that occurs as CO2 increases) had been vastly overestimated: Rumor Debunked: Physicists Did Not Flip-Flop on Global Warming:

Stories of the supposed policy reversal began popping up after an article by Christopher Monckton, a politician and a former policy advisor in Margaret Thatcher’s administration, submitted an article in an online newsletter of the APS Forum on Physics and Society. The article claimed that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had overestimated the Earth’s climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide (or how much the global average temperature will change given a certain amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere).

In the article, Monckton, the 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, also claims that changes in solar activity are behind the warming trend of the past few decades, an idea that has been refuted by several climate scientists.

A note in red lettering above the article states that it has not been peer-reviewed and that “its conclusions are in disagreement with the overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community. The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article’s conclusions.”

The issue’s so politicized at this point, I put all global warming news releases (especially those claiming to debunk it) on a 48-hour hold. You can’t really trust either side to be completely up front.

If you feel like a walk down Mathematics Lane to look at something concrete, though, Tim Lambert says Monckton triple-counted some of the evidence, and has equations with funny little Greek symbols in them to prove it.

Lambert’s a little off base in one assertion, though:

Thanks to Drudge, all the right-wing blogs have been touting a story alleging the American Physical Society has reversed its stance on global warming.

Not all.

Meanwhile at American Thinker, Marc Sheppard has a response from Christopher Monckton, with a demand that the APS remove their “not peer reviewed” notice from the article: American Thinker Blog: The American Physical Society Owes Lord Monckton an Immediate Apology.

As of today, the notice is still there.

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383 comments

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1 lone_wolf_in_illinois  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:02:51pm

No one can get it straight. Keep going.

2 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:02:53pm
3 DisturbedEma  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:03:24pm

So, what is the upshot? I am a bit behind on the whole scorecard. . .

4 DisturbedEma  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:03:59pm

re: #1 lone_wolf_in_illinois


So, we know nothing more/new?

5 bp sf  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:05:20pm

Nitrogen: 81%

O2: 17-18%

CO2: Trace Element.

Climate Change Believer: Doesn't care.

6 lone_wolf_in_illinois  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:05:25pm

re: #4 DisturbedEma

So, we know nothing more/new?

Except that it is not "peer reviewed"! It helps when your peers think the same way you do, though. Sure makes the dissenters stick out in the crowd. I agree with Charles, put it on a 48 hold.

7 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:05:35pm

I wonder what howard from panda's thumb thinks.

8 Pullus Iulius  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:10:54pm

re: #4 DisturbedEma

We know that Mr. Monckton's dis-invitation to submit is probably in the mail.

9 winston06  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:11:12pm

It's a myth

10 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:14:22pm

It's always nice to see science in agreement/disagreement on the greatest issue/non-issue of our time.

11 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:15:54pm
12 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:16:05pm

It's the Sun.

13 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:16:09pm

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - Hundreds of baby penguins swept from the icy shores of Antarctica and Patagonia are washing up dead on Rio de Janeiro's tropical beaches, rescuers and penguin experts said Friday.

More than 400 penguins, most of them young, have been found dead on the beaches of Rio de Janeiro state over the past two months, according to Eduardo Pimenta, superintendent for the state coastal protection and environment agency in the resort city of Cabo Frio.

SNIP

Overfishing? Pollution? Global warming?

14 2SoonOld2LateSmart  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:16:10pm

It's the Sun, Son.

/Just say No to Solar Warming Denial.

15 A Kiwi Infidel  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:17:26pm
are very probably likely to be primarily responsible

I would say there is a "very probably likely" chance that there will be egg on faces. It will be interesting how quickly the trickle of global warming advocates, abandoning the SS Globalwarming, will become a deluge of rats as the ship sinks faster and faster.

16 kc8ukw  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:18:27pm

I wouldn't expect the APS to change their position. They've gotten way too political lately - always under the guise of science, of course. I wish they'd just stick to publishing journals and organizing conferences.

17 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:18:56pm
18 Shug  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:19:16pm

Proud to be a "flat earther" per al gore

19 Kaitian868  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:21:21pm

Regardless of if there's a "crisis" or not, I'm not in favor of taking drastic action to "countering" global warming and damaging our economy when China or India in the process automatically negate whatever actions the United States takes.

20 lizardbennet  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:22:33pm

Between this topic and his 2000 election antics, Al Gore is like the Pied Piper of gloom, doom, and dissension.

/I think he might be the devil.

21 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:23:45pm
22 Shug  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:24:57pm

There has never been global warming. NEVER.
The Infidels in America are covered by Glaciers. They are in the ice age. praise Allah

/baghdad bob

23 Shiplord Kirel  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:25:41pm

Good.

I can go ahead with my retirement project for a banana plantation near Lubbock.

Whatever else happens, global warming will NOT lead to desertification. Past warming cycles have typically been characterized by a great increase in rainfall. This is because, er, more water evaporates when the oceans get warmer.

Lefty scientific authorities like Ted Turner obviously think otherwise because the desert areas with which they are familiar (ie Palm Springs) are also hot.

24 taxfreekiller[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:26:08pm
25 lizardbennet  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:26:29pm

re: #21 buzzsawmonkey

Touche'--but wouldn't it be great if he'd keep his pie-hole shut?

26 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:27:15pm
27 snowcrash  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:27:58pm

After inviting Monckton to submit a paper (on a position they know he holds re co2), they put an embarrassing red disclaimer on his work. This seems like a purposeful attempt to discredit him in the eyes of the scientific community and he is right to demand an apology.

28 bloodnok  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:28:34pm
29 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:29:32pm

re: #26 buzzsawmonkey

Indeed it would. He has a lot of crust to spout off the way he does.

Are you calling him flaky?

30 ciaospirit  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:29:43pm

Great response from Monckton to the APS via American Thinker link. He's taking names.

This seems discourteous. I had been invited to submit the paper; I had submitted it; an eminent Professor of Physics had then scientifically reviewed it in meticulous detail; I had revised it at all points requested, and in the manner requested; the editors had accepted and published the reviewed and revised draft (some 3000 words longer than the original) and I had expended considerable labor, without having been offered or having requested any honorarium.

Please either remove the offending red-flag text at once or let me have the name and qualifications of the member of the Council or advisor to it who considered my paper before the Council ordered the offending text to be posted above my paper; a copy of this rapporteur's findings and ratio decidendi; the date of the Council meeting at which the findings were presented; a copy of the minutes of the discussion; and a copy of the text of the Council's decision, together with the names of those present at the meeting. If the Council has not scientifically evaluated or formally considered my paper, may I ask with what credible scientific justification, and on whose authority, the offending text asserts primo, that the paper had not been scientifically reviewed when it had; secundo, that its conclusions disagree with what is said (on no evidence) to be the "overwhelming opinion of the world scientific community"; and, tertio, that "The Council of the American Physical Society disagrees with this article's conclusions"? Which of my conclusions does the Council disagree with, and on what scientific grounds (if any)?

Having regard to the circumstances, surely the Council owes me an apology?

Yours truly,

THE VISCOUNT MONCKTON OF BRENCHLEY

31 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:29:53pm
32 lizardbennet  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:30:49pm

re: #29 wolfie

Definitely--and I think he may be fruity, too.

33 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:32:01pm

I just got back from a week on Cape Cod where some of my wife's family joined us from Michigan. Every one of them got badly sunburned. Obviously this is a clear cut case of global warming at its worst....Or maybe they all just neglected to use enough sunscreen.

34 sundaydriver  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:32:10pm

just wanna say thanks for this article. This informs people in a rare and right way on how this discussion evolves. I hate all the climate histeria and would wish it's all to blame on the sun, but i would wish even more to know what's the truth on this matter.

35 bloodnok  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:32:36pm

re: #31 buzzsawmonkey

I'm panning him.

Stop this meringue on his character....this piatribe!
/

36 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:32:50pm

Some people seem to get the point. At least two I know of.

37 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:33:56pm

re: #30 ciaospirit

Great response from Monckton to the APS via American Thinker link. He's taking names.

And kicking ass.

38 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:34:11pm

re: #35 bloodnok

Stop this meringue on his character....this piatribe!
/

Do you really have to give such a tart response?

39 CJW  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:35:53pm

It's impossible to flip-flop on this if one were never on the side of the Chicken Littles to begin with.

"Global Warming" Infidel

40 bloodnok  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:36:30pm

re: #38 wolfie

Do you really have to give such a tart response?

Let he/she who has not sinned cast the first scone, Wolfie...

41 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:38:01pm

New issues swirl around controversial NASA branch

NASA's primary climate monitoring agency is the Goddard Institute of Space Studies. Operating out of a small office at Columbia University, GISS is run by Dr. James Hansen. Official NASA climate statements come through GISS ... which means they must get by Hansen. Many other scientists and agencies make climate predictions, but Hansen's top the list for scare factor, predicting consequences considerably more dire than his colleagues.

SNIP

A report revealed just this week, shows the 'Open Society Institute' funded Hansen to the tune of $720,000, carefully orchestrating his entire media campaign. OSI, a political group which spent $74 million in 2006 to "shape public policy," is funded by billionaire George Soros, the largest backer of Kerry's 2004 Presidential Campaign. Soros, who once declared that "removing Bush from office was the "central focus" of his life, has also given tens of millions of dollars to MoveOn.Org and other political action groups.

SNIP

42 goddessoftheclassroom  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:38:57pm

re: #41 MandyManners

New issues swirl around controversial NASA branch

NASA's primary climate monitoring agency is the Goddard Institute of Space Studies. Operating out of a small office at Columbia University, GISS is run by Dr. James Hansen. Official NASA climate statements come through GISS ... which means they must get by Hansen. Many other scientists and agencies make climate predictions, but Hansen's top the list for scare factor, predicting consequences considerably more dire than his colleagues.

SNIP

A report revealed just this week, shows the 'Open Society Institute' funded Hansen to the tune of $720,000, carefully orchestrating his entire media campaign. OSI, a political group which spent $74 million in 2006 to "shape public policy," is funded by billionaire George Soros, the largest backer of Kerry's 2004 Presidential Campaign. Soros, who once declared that "removing Bush from office was the "central focus" of his life, has also given tens of millions of dollars to MoveOn.Org and other political action groups.

SNIP

OMG--that's almost a smoking gun!

43 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:39:27pm

re: #5 bp sf

Nitrogen: 81%

O2: 17-18%

CO2: Trace Element.

Climate Change Believer: Doesn't care.

Off just a smidge in your assessment, but I'm sure diffrent sources list diffrent levels The AGWBSB's still don't care.
Nitrogen 78%
Oxygen 20.9%
Argon .9%
Carbon Dioxide .03%
Water vapor 1%

44 big L  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:39:57pm

3 disturbedEma-- Pull it together.
See there is "Climate" and there is "Change".
so you put the two together and you have
"Climate""change"....
there you go! Now you are up to speed.
/makes about as much sense as Algore saying "all debate is over"...

45 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:40:32pm

re: #42 goddessoftheclassroom

That article's from 2007 -- I posted about it:

[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]

46 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:40:34pm

Weather is complex. To call it chaotic is a gross understatement. At this point, I'd say it's safe to say our understanding of the processes involved is infantile. When we can't get an accurate weather forecast a few days in advance, it's pure BS to claim to be able to predict trends a hundred years from now, especially given the models don't work with historic records.

Now, here's the real kicker for me: Who decided warming was bad? It extends the growing season, meaning there is more food. It expands the regions capable of growing food, meaning, duh, there is more food. Considering the extent of starvation during the historical periods of global cooling, I'd say global warming is better than global cooling.

It's all about power. If those harping about it really cared, they'd be going after the major polluters, and that ain't the US.

47 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:40:58pm

IMO, worse than the global warming hysteria is the politicizing of science in general. It is a great detriment to not only science, but regular non-science folks as well. I think it's laying a foundation for science to be mistrusted in the future when the global warming doesn't pan out or is better understood and thus revised. This will play into the hands of those seeking to truly undermine science in the eyes of regular people by the other group trying to politicize science- the ID crowd. They will use this as a club to beat the whole of science while hypocritically failing to mention the problem of forcing ideology into a field that should stick strictly to the scientific method and adhere to findings and not biases or faith.

48 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:41:14pm

re: #41 MandyManners

Soros, who once declared that "removing Bush from office was the "central focus" of his life,

Does this mean that after the McCain is sworn into office that Soros will go away? After all Bush will be out of office.

49 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:41:35pm
50 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:42:12pm

re: #31 buzzsawmonkey

I'm panning him.

If you can get close, use a cast iron skillet instead of a pan. Use ear plugs too, the gong effect could leave your ears ringing.

51 bp sf  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:42:45pm

#43

Every time I calibrate my spectral analyzer 02 is 17.6 to 17.9; but then again, I'm in New Jersey.

52 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:43:10pm
53 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:43:33pm

re: #36 DeathtotheSwiss

Thanks for that.

54 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:43:52pm

I'm going to have to part company with some people on this, because if the paper was not peer reviewed (and I haven't seen anything proving the contrary) then the APS had little choice but to put some kind of notice on it. The "peer reviewed" story was all over the place -- Drudge Report drives a huge amount of traffic to stories.

I don't blame the APS. They were correcting false information.

55 bloodnok  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:44:00pm

re: #49 buzzsawmonkey

So many riffs on Al Gore and his half-baked ideas...

Yup, a real Betty Crock-er lies

56 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:44:38pm

re: #41 MandyManners

ding....&...heart
Or as buzzsaw might say,

DING went the strings of myHEART.

57 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:45:44pm

re: #45 Charles

That article's from 2007 -- I posted about it:

[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]

I think it was the first article about Soros that I saved.

58 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:46:31pm

Schwarzenegger NASA Visit: Post Your Captions in Reply

Hehehe

"I just had a terrible thought: what if this is a dream?"
-Total Recall

59 Shiplord Kirel  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:46:32pm

re: #47 Sharmuta

IMO, worse than the global warming hysteria is the politicizing of science in general. It is a great detriment to not only science, but regular non-science folks as well. I think it's laying a foundation for science to be mistrusted in the future when the global warming doesn't pan out or is better understood and thus revised. This will play into the hands of those seeking to truly undermine science in the eyes of regular people by the other group trying to politicize science- the ID crowd. They will use this as a club to beat the whole of science while hypocritically failing to mention the problem of forcing ideology into a field that should stick strictly to the scientific method and adhere to findings and not biases or faith.

Excellent insight. This is what I have feared most; in their zeal for grants, politicized scientists are selling their birthright for a mess of pottage.

60 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:46:43pm

re: #48 Ford_Prefect

Does this mean that after the McCain is sworn into office that Soros will go away? After all Bush will be out of office.

Naw. He'll just invest more money in perverting the media and the Democrats.

61 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:46:49pm

re: #54 Charles
What about the emminent personage the scientist claims reviewed it in the first half of his reply asking for a retraction/apology? Oh, crap, no name given. Sorry.

62 goddessoftheclassroom  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:47:09pm

re: #45 Charles

That article's from 2007 -- I posted about it:

[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]

I missed that--but of course you were on top of it!

63 twincitiesgirl  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:47:46pm

With so much hype about global warming, how does someone who is not a scientist decide what is true? An article I saved from last year:

Blogger Finds Y2K Bug in NASA Climate Data

I did like what one commenter had to say--Critical thought is not blindly following a voice, but analyzing what the voice has to say before following it.

Anyone like to give some guidelines?

64 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:47:46pm

re: #46 mossley

Weather is complex. To call it chaotic is a gross understatement. At this point, I'd say it's safe to say our understanding of the processes involved is infantile. When we can't get an accurate weather forecast a few days in advance, it's pure BS to claim to be able to predict trends a hundred years from now, especially given the models don't work with historic records.

Now, here's the real kicker for me: Who decided warming was bad? It extends the growing season, meaning there is more food. It expands the regions capable of growing food, meaning, duh, there is more food. Considering the extent of starvation during the historical periods of global cooling, I'd say global warming is better than global cooling.

It's all about power. If those harping about it really cared, they'd be going after the major polluters, and that ain't the US.

Ofcourse its political, follow the money trail in reverse. We are giving industry deals to China and not requiring them to use safeguards that American and European indusrty must use. Al Gore is the pointman in this fiasco. China funneled money to the Clintons for their various campaigns and deals.
We beatthem in the cold war, yet American Socialists (communists without spines) are determined to bring communism to our shores no matter what the cost.

65 Shiplord Kirel  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:49:15pm

re: #46 mossley


Now, here's the real kicker for me: Who decided warming was bad? It extends the growing season, meaning there is more food. It expands the regions capable of growing food, meaning, duh, there is more food. Considering the extent of starvation during the historical periods of global cooling, I'd say global warming is better than global cooling.

It's all about power. If those harping about it really cared, they'd be going after the major polluters, and that ain't the US.

This is precisely my view.
Warming= longer growing seasons, expanded productive zones, higher rainfall.

66 Van Helsing  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:49:38pm

Al Gore is a pudding head. Thinks the whole planet is going to be dessert.

/running away now

67 yochanan  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:49:40pm

[Link: www.breitbart.tv...]

i would love to pay this way.

68 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:49:43pm

re: #60 MandyManners

Naw. He'll just invest more money in perverting the media and the Democrats.

I kind of thought the media and the Democrats were perverted enough.

69 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:51:43pm

re: #45 Charles

Great! I can save that.

70 Alberta Oil Peon  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:52:06pm

re: #54 Charles

I'm going to have to part company with some people on this, because if the paper was not peer reviewed (and I haven't seen anything proving the contrary) then the APS had little choice but to put some kind of notice on it. The "peer reviewed" story was all over the place -- Drudge Report drives a huge amount of traffic to stories.

I don't blame the APS. They were correcting false information.

According to Monckton's response to the APS,as quoted at the American Thinker blog, the articlewas peer-reviewed, and furthermore, the APS invited him to submit it.

Is this going to boil down to what constitutes peer review?

71 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:52:13pm

We Rethuglicans need to get over this GW stuff, that's old hat. BHO is concerned about the world for another reason:

If Malcolm X's discovery toward the end of his life, that some whites might live beside him as brothers in Islam, seemed to offer some hope of eventual reconciliation, that hope appeared in a distant future, in a far-off land. In the meantime, I looked to see where the people would come from who were willing to work toward this future and populate this new world. Source: Dreams from My Father, by Barack Obama, p. 80 Aug 1, 1996 [Link: www.ontheissues.org...]


Let me try to diagram this:
Malcolm X > white brothers in islam > offers hope of reconciliation > Barack looks toward the people who were willing to work toward this future and populate this new world.

His writing is tough to parse (and maybe intentionally so) but this future he looks forward to give me the creeps.

72 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:52:49pm

re: #51 bp sf

#43

Every time I calibrate my spectral analyzer 02 is 17.6 to 17.9; but then again, I'm in New Jersey.

I just did a web search, and took what I found there. I'm sure levels vary with location. Levels of oxygen in the Los Angeles or Denver areas would be lower then those in say Columbia.
Likewise heat levels vary depending on what is present. The more trees, the cooler. Or as has been shown, hte presence of Algore can bring unseasonably cold weather. Want snow in July? call AL.

73 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:54:23pm

The glow-bull warming thing is pure junk science, in my opinion.

Look at the people who shill this nonsense: David Suzuki, Al Gore, Green-p*ss and the rest of the loony moonbat brigade.

I scorn, and have no use for any rubbish promoted by the above loonies.

Remember Y2K? And Global Cooling? The Nuclear Winter?

Pure junk science. Designed to frighten the feeble minded.

74 Chip Designer  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:54:26pm

There has been some interesting work lately that the paper does not fully cover.

1. The position of the planets causes the center of gravity of the solar system to move around in the vicinity of the sun. The sun itself orbits around this center of gravity. The basic period is about 11.2 years.

2. When the center of gravity is not at the center of the sun, the sun experiences tides, just as the earth does with the moon. Because the solar system contains multiple planets, the tidal cycles on the sun are very complex.

3. These tides appear to cause storms on the sun, which we see as sunspots. In turn, these storms influence our weather.

4. Based on predictions of future movements of the center of gravity, it appears that we are going into a very calm phase in the sun. That in turn means a much cooler earth.

75 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:55:30pm

re: #68 Ford_Prefect

I kind of thought the media and the Democrats were perverted enough.

Not enough for Soros.

76 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:55:41pm

re: #58 DeathtotheSwiss

Schwarzenegger NASA Visit: Post Your Captions in Reply

Hehehe

"I just had a terrible thought: what if this is a dream?"
-Total Recall

"If I connect all the dots what is it a picture of?"

77 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:56:16pm
78 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:56:26pm

re: #74 Chip Designer

Interesting- do you have some links for that?

79 Dahveed  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:57:23pm

re: #46 mossley

I've often wondered what the correct temperature of the planet is. The global warming crowd is so invested in this that they don't want to see the positives that have occurred on this planet in the last 100 years. Food production is up, people are living longer and the wealth of people has expanded dramatically. Pretty good results for maybe 1 degree of warmth overall.

80 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:57:50pm

re: #76 Ford_Prefect

"If I connect all the dots what is it a picture of?"

It's a picture of a jackass.......

81 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:58:17pm

re: #74 Chip Designer

There has been some interesting work lately that the paper does not fully cover.

1. The position of the planets causes the center of gravity of the solar system to move around in the vicinity of the sun. The sun itself orbits around this center of gravity. The basic period is about 11.2 years.

2. When the center of gravity is not at the center of the sun, the sun experiences tides, just as the earth does with the moon. Because the solar system contains multiple planets, the tidal cycles on the sun are very complex.

3. These tides appear to cause storms on the sun, which we see as sunspots. In turn, these storms influence our weather.

4. Based on predictions of future movements of the center of gravity, it appears that we are going into a very calm phase in the sun. That in turn means a much cooler earth.

So, by that, I take it that if the planets were ever to all line up, it would be a very hot spell followed by a very cold one as earth orbits so much faster then mars and the further planets, whereas the faster orbiting two are considerably smaller and though closer have less influence?

82 snowcrash  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:58:26pm

Do other articles that have been submitted and do not meet the peer review standards have the same red disclaimer at the top of the article or are they not published? I would be interested to know if this is atypical treatment.

83 nyc redneck  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:58:30pm

i just want to slap people who say, "it is no longer open to debate."

84 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:59:37pm

re: #70 Alberta Oil Peon

According to Monckton's response to the APS,as quoted at the American Thinker blog, the articlewas peer-reviewed, and furthermore, the APS invited him to submit it.

Is this going to boil down to what constitutes peer review?

What's described by Monckton is not

85 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:59:46pm

re: #79 Dahveed
There is no correct temperature for the planet. It fluctuates. Hell if you look over long periods of time this little dirt ball is covered with ice more often than it is temperate enough for carbonated life forms!

86 Killgore Trout  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 2:59:53pm

Semi-OT: Channel 4 censured for programme that said climate change was a fraud

The Great Global Warming Swindle, which aired in March last year, has been accused of downplaying the threat in the public mind. It sparked an outcry among environmentalists and many campaigners argue that the programme has contributed to people believing that the threat is not real.

It is understood that complaints by Carl Wunsch, a climate expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, will be upheld. The regulator is expected to say that Channel 4 should have told Dr Wunsch that the programme was going to be a polemic.

The regulator will also uphold complaints made by the government’s former chief scientist, Sir David King, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

But the broadcaster will not be censured over a second complaint about accuracy, which contained 131 specific points and ran to 270 pages, with Ofcom finding that it did not mislead the public

87 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:00:06pm

re: #47 Sharmuta

IMO, worse than the global warming hysteria is the politicizing of science in general. It is a great detriment to not only science, but regular non-science folks as well. I think it's laying a foundation for science to be mistrusted in the future when the global warming doesn't pan out or is better understood and thus revised. This will play into the hands of those seeking to truly undermine science in the eyes of regular people by the other group trying to politicize science- the ID crowd. They will use this as a club to beat the whole of science while hypocritically failing to mention the problem of forcing ideology into a field that should stick strictly to the scientific method and adhere to findings and not biases or faith.


Science has been beaten down in schools to such an extent it has little more respect than study hall. If you looked at some of Killgores graphs in his links the other night, it's not so much what is being taught, but how it is being processed in the students minds.
According to his links a large proportion of former students and adults that have been taught evolution are self-reporting to have a creationist leaning. I'm still scratching my head over that seeming contradiction.

88 nyc redneck  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:00:46pm

global warming is a big money maker for the people at the top.
and a big feel good thing for the losers at the bottom. (fools)

89 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:00:57pm

re: #75 MandyManners

Not enough for Soros.

There sure is a lot of political incest going on there. Funny how that part of the story is never mentioned by the MSM.

90 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:01:15pm

re: #81 JeremyR

......"So, by that, I take it that if the planets were ever to all line up, it would be a very hot spell followed by a very cold one as earth orbits so much faster then mars and the further planets,.."

Do you remember the big Jupiter effect that was going to end the universe? Circa 1979?

91 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:01:35pm

re: #87 EC Marm

I have not only seen Killgore's links- I have most of them saved in my favorites.

92 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:02:43pm

re: #82 snowcrash

Do other articles that have been submitted and do not meet the peer review standards have the same red disclaimer at the top of the article or are they not published? I would be interested to know if this is atypical treatment.

It is atypical, yes -- but as far as I can tell, the APS had no choice. They were correcting a rapidly-spreading false report, and probably getting a lot of email and media attention.

When I saw the article first it did not have the notice. Correcting the record is the right thing to do.

93 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:03:23pm
94 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:04:02pm

re: #77 buzzsawmonkey

If you are religious, consider the statement that appears many times in the Psalms; "G-d has fixed the earth so that it cannot falter."

If you are not religious, consider Katrina or the tsunami in Thailand; the planet, with a flip of its wrist, can wipe out vast numbers of human beings without batting an eye. Or consider Lake Erie; considered "dead" 30+ years ago, it has now fully recovered. Consider that, ugly as oil spills are, and despite the immediate loss of marine life, the main reason we go nuts over cleaning them up is for ourselves; the marine life as such is not threatened (despite individual deaths, but nature is red in tooth and claw), and the planet would, left to itself, cleanse itself--just over a longer period of time.

Consider, too, that there is nothing which decrees that this global mean temperature that we have right now is the Best of All Possible Temperatures. The only reason that is being decreed is because some officious assholes are trying to do so--not because there is any objective evidence for it. Not that what we do or don't do will necessarily affect that global mean temperature anyway, but even if it did--why is it this one we simply must preserve?

All this is independent of the "science" of global warming/cooling/whatever. A little sense and a little lack of hysteria goes a long way, regardless of what the most recent Expert has to say.

Assume a creationist POV for a moment. Imediately after the flood of Noah, there were no ice caps, no glaciers, no pack ice. Genesis notes that the ages began to taper off immediately, falling from hundreds of years to seventy in only a few generations. If such was the case, might it be that warmer is better? Higher temperatures means more water vapor in the atmosphere, and less of it locked up at the poles etc. Maybe what we have is a case of global dehydration. Areas in subSaharan Africa are in drought as are other parts of the world, all because too much moisture is trapped in ice.
I know it sounds crazy, but there might be some truth in it.

95 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:04:55pm

re: #93 buzzsawmonkey

LOL!

96 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:05:34pm

re: #41 MandyManners

Open Society Institute.

Institute for Advanced Studies.

Moveon.org.

97 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:05:36pm
98 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:05:57pm

Michelle Malkin has a neat piece on GulfStream (Jet) Liberals..

[Link: michellemalkin.com...]

We don't pay carbon taxes. Only the little people pay carbon taxes..

Bwwwwaaahahahah!

99 Killgore Trout  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:06:11pm

re: #93 buzzsawmonkey

I still don't know what to think about global warming. Both sides are pretty full of shit. I guess we'll know more in another 5-10 years.

100 Pvt Bin Jammin  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:06:25pm

I am currently editing a letter to a cruise line for my husband. One of his gripes was that when we attended a lecture, on board, all about Glacier Bay it turned into a global warming lecture.

101 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:06:44pm

re: #84 Charles

But its not always impartial, look at all the stuff in favor of global warming, some of these guys jump on board so fast it would sink if it was a ship.

102 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:06:44pm
103 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:06:55pm

re: #97 buzzsawmonkey
Frackin' goats too. Herds and herds of goats will wreck an ecology faster'n shit.

104 Dahveed  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:06:59pm

re: #93 buzzsawmonkey

I am increasingly convinced that "global warming" hysteria is merely an attempt by a very thin scum of the obscenely rich to get the rest of us to save their beach houses.

The global warming groups are the modern day equivalents of snake oil salesmen. The problem is that so many are buying the product without any thought.

105 Hard Right  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:07:06pm

Lots of those drunk on the kool-aid in the comments section at Lambert's site.
As usual being leftists, they are pompous and condescending beyond belief.
I always find it amusing when the left, who bases it's entire belief system on the denial of reality, calls those that disagree with them, "denialists".

106 Mr. Pulpo  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:07:36pm

I'm just curious.
What ever happened to the ozone hole growing/ozone layer disappearing/were gonna die in 10 years routine?

107 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:08:14pm

re: #106 Mr. Pulpo
Manbearpig stole the ozone hole.

108 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:08:53pm

re: #92 Charles

It is atypical, yes -- but as far as I can tell, the APS had no choice. They were correcting a rapidly-spreading false report, and probably getting a lot of email and media attention.

When I saw the article first it did not have the notice. Correcting the record is the right thing to do.

Maybe I am naive about scientific publications, but wouldn't the right thing to do be to not publish the article in the first place until it had been peer reviewed.

109 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:09:41pm
110 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:09:52pm

re: #89 Ford_Prefect

There sure is a lot of political incest going on there. Funny how that part of the story is never mentioned by the MSM.

Please see my No. 96. I think those are just three Soros organizations.

111 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:10:38pm

re: #97 buzzsawmonkey

No, there isn't.

The reason Northern Africa is a desert is that it was overfarmed during the Roman Empire, at which time it was the Empire's breadbasket.

I disagree, many areas are experiencing drought which leads to crop failure.
Frankly some part of the USA are in danger because they were farmed using irigation from wells and the water table cannot recover fast enough leading to dry wells. Parts of Texas are experiencing that problem. However, other areas used to have enough rainfall to make them good farm land.
There are many variables in play, it would be nice if we had rainfall records from one thousand years ago.

112 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:10:40pm

As the planet Earth rotates around the Sun, our entire solar system rotates through the Milky Way. Think of it this way; put a kitchen plate on the kitchen table and begin to spin the plate. While doing that have another person pick up the kitchen table and carry it around the planet. Who knows what our solar system encounters during it's 225 million year rotation through the Milky Way? Only Al Gore, apparently.
Wiki, not bad.

113 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:10:53pm

re: #101 JeremyR

But its not always impartial, look at all the stuff in favor of global warming, some of these guys jump on board so fast it would sink if it was a ship.

I didn't say it was always impartial. But it's either peer reviewed or it's not, and the Monckton article was not. The APS had to put a notice on it to counter that false claim.

If the article had passed through peer review, it would be big news. If it ends up being successfully reviewed, it still may turn out to be news.

Right now though, the APS acted responsibly to correct the record.

114 Pvt Bin Jammin  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:11:11pm

re: #106 Mr. Pulpo
This is just second-hand word of mouth but according to a NASA scientist that Desert Sage, my husband and I met a few times, the ozone hole is getting smaller since we have changed our refrigerants. The guy doesn't buy Gore's theory on global warming, however.

115 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:12:51pm

re: #93 buzzsawmonkey

I have no animus toward democracy, as long as it doesn't spoil the view. ----Quentin Crisp

116 nyc redneck  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:13:15pm

i wonder how many scientists publish pro- global warming papers because of job/money pressures.
or bribes.
how can 2 groups be so far apart?
i have a goofy friend who gets tears in her eyes when we talk abt. global warming. it's ridiculous.
something to worry abt. so she won't have to face her life.

117 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:13:22pm

re: #111 JeremyR

I disagree, many areas are experiencing drought which leads to crop failure.
Frankly some part of the USA are in danger because they were farmed using irigation from wells and the water table cannot recover fast enough leading to dry wells. Parts of Texas are experiencing that problem. However, other areas used to have enough rainfall to make them good farm land.
There are many variables in play, it would be nice if we had rainfall records from one thousand years ago.

Also, farming methods can help land recover. The Hutterites bought farm land near Ward South Dakota that was worn out junk, fenced it, raised turkeys and turned it into fertile ground. The went from laughing stock to shrewd operators.

118 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:13:29pm

re: #79 Dahveed

I've often wondered what the correct temperature of the planet is. The global warming crowd is so invested in this that they don't want to see the positives that have occurred on this planet in the last 100 years. Food production is up, people are living longer and the wealth of people has expanded dramatically. Pretty good results for maybe 1 degree of warmth overall.

I was at a gathering a while back, and some moonbat kept ranting on and on about the dangers of global warming. When he finally stopped babbling long enough to take a breath, I asked them what the temperature was supposed to be. He looked at me like I had three heads, but I explained that if he knew for a fact that the earth was too warm, then there had to be a correct temperature. Simple logic. When other people started laughing, he stormed off. No one really missed him.

119 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:13:33pm
120 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:13:50pm

re: #112 EC Marm
That's why the Mayan calendar ends 12/21/12. Apparently our solar system will be aligned with the center of the galaxy and some bigg ass space monster is gonna eat us. Don't ask me how the Mayans knew about the center of the galaxy, it was on the History channel!

121 Geepers  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:15:22pm
Not all.

So are we a "right-wing" blog or not? This is all so confusing. ;-)

122 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:15:24pm

re: #106 Mr. Pulpo

I'm just curious.
What ever happened to the ozone hole growing/ozone layer disappearing/were gonna die in 10 years routine?

Ten years went by.

123 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:15:36pm
124 venjanz  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:15:48pm

re: #106 Mr. Pulpo

The main thing with the ozone hole is that the CFC's which caused it do not occur naturally.

125 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:15:58pm

re: #108 Ford_Prefect

Maybe I am naive about scientific publications, but wouldn't the right thing to do be to not publish the article in the first place until it had been peer reviewed.

Common sense ! :O

126 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:16:52pm

re: #113 Charles

I didn't say it was always impartial. But it's either peer reviewed or it's not, and the Monckton article was not. The APS had to put a notice on it to counter that false claim.

If the article had passed through peer review, it would be big news. If it ends up being successfully reviewed, it still may turn out to be news.

Right now though, the APS acted responsibly to correct the record.

Sometimes too, peer review is a failure because there is money in prolonging the perception of a problem. That can bite hard on some one who is right but lacks the clout to get it past peers.

We can only guess what the peers will do, and hope it is the right thing.

127 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:16:58pm

re: #120 pingjockey

It's going to be worse than Y2K.... we are doomed.

DOOMED, I TELL YOU!

128 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:17:09pm

Follow the money.

129 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:17:11pm

re: #110 MandyManners

Please see my No. 96. I think those are just three Soros organizations.

The fact that one man has so much influence while being allowed to keep his name largely out of the press is very disturbing.

130 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:17:34pm

re: #53 Ford_Prefect

Here to please.

131 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:17:57pm

re: #127 whiterasta
Mwahahaha! (best evil villian laugh)

132 snowcrash  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:17:58pm

I think I saw in Thanos blog a mention this "was published in Physics and Society is the quarterly of the Forum on Physics and Society, a division of the American Physical Society. It presents letters, commentary, book reviews, and reviewed articles on the relations of physics and the physics community to government and society. It also carries news of the Forum and provides a medium for Forum members to exchange ideas. Opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the APS or of the Forum."
I agree a disclaimer is necessary based on the amount of traffic Drudges link generated. I still think the 3 sentences in the red disclaimer went way beyond a reminder of facts. BTW, I try to live like global warming is a for real event but without the hysteria.

133 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:19:09pm

re: #121 Geepers

So are we a "right-wing" blog or not? This is all so confusing. ;-)

I'm at the "whatever" stage on that one.

134 Dahveed  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:19:25pm

re: #118 mossley

135 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:19:29pm

re: #118 mossley

I was at a gathering a while back, and some moonbat kept ranting on and on about the dangers of global warming. When he finally stopped babbling long enough to take a breath, I asked them what the temperature was supposed to be. He looked at me like I had three heads, but I explained that if he knew for a fact that the earth was too warm, then there had to be a correct temperature. Simple logic. When other people started laughing, he stormed off. No one really missed him.

Too good!

136 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:19:29pm

Why Does NASA Oppose Satellites? A Modest Proposal For A Better Data Set

One of the ironies of climate science is that perhaps the most prominent opponent of satellite measurement of global temperature is James Hansen, head of ... wait for it ... the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at NASA! As odd as it may seem, while we have updated our technology for measuring atmospheric components like CO2, and have switched from surface measurement to satellites to monitor sea ice, Hansen and his crew at the space agency are fighting a rearguard action to defend surface temperature measurement against the intrusion of space technology.


Why surface temperature measurements are problematic.

This project, started on June 4th 2007, is designed for the express purpose of photographically surveying every one of the 1221 USHCN weather stations in the USA which are used as a “high quality network” to determine near surface temperature trends in the USA. USHCN is a subset of the larger COOP network of stations in the USA, of which there are about 9000. The USHCN subset has been hand picked by the National Climatic Data Center to be more regionally representative due to their placement, length of service and minimum station moves. Unfortunately, the network has fallen into neglect, and the temperature data produced by it is suspect due to microsite biases. See what has been learned so far here in this slide show.

Shifting of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from its warm mode to cool mode assures global cooling for the next three decades.

Addressing the Washington Policymakers in Seattle, WA, Dr. Don Easterbrook said that shifting of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from its warm mode to its cool mode virtually assures global cooling for the next 25-30 years and means that the global warming of the past 30 years is over. The announcement by NASA that the (PDO) had shifted from its warm mode to its cool mode (Fig. 1) is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and is not an oddity superimposed upon and masking the predicted severe warming by the IPCC. This has significant implications for the future and indicates that the IPCC climate models were wrong in their prediction of global temperatures soaring 1°F per decade for the rest of the century.
137 Typicalwhitey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:19:56pm
138 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:20:44pm
139 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:20:49pm

re: #84 Charles

I think the term "expert" is played with pretty loose and fast these days.

Complexity theory kind of says that nobody can really be an "expert" as far as the weather is concerned. Or perhaps I'm over-simplifying this on a Biblical scale.

140 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:20:54pm

re: #133 Charles

I submit this is an anti-idiotarian blog... And has been so for many years.

141 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:21:11pm

re: #129 Ford_Prefect

The fact that one man has so much influence while being allowed to keep his name largely out of the press is very disturbing.

I try not to think about that angle too much.

142 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:21:36pm
143 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:22:00pm

re: #123 buzzsawmonkey

You will, I trust, excuse me for observing that anyone who uses the Biblical accounts of the Flood as an historical science reference (as you did upthread) is not to be taken seriously in any discussion of scientific matters.

Regardless of if there was a biblical flood, at one time the earth was much warmer, Tattime period had huge quantities of vegitation and animals. What ever catistrophic event brought it to an end, whether a comet impact, or what ever, changed earths structure forever.

144 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:22:04pm

re: #140 whiterasta

I submit this is an anti-idiotarian blog... And has been so for many years.

Yep, the point is that when people say "right wing blog" we always get lumped in there. I can't stop it, so it's just "whatever."

145 Thanos  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:22:45pm

re: #54 Charles

I'm going to have to part company with some people on this, because if the paper was not peer reviewed (and I haven't seen anything proving the contrary) then the APS had little choice but to put some kind of notice on it. The "peer reviewed" story was all over the place -- Drudge Report drives a huge amount of traffic to stories.

I don't blame the APS. They were correcting false information.

It was SPPI that put out the initial press notice that created all of this by stating that the paper was reviewed, and they are were I got the idea that the study was peer-reviewed. (now corrected thanks to LGF commenter Transient) They are anti-mmgw public policy institute, I haven't looked yet to see who the $$$ are behind them yet, but I will see if I can find out.

146 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:23:26pm
147 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:23:33pm

Charles, one thing, not to give them too much attention, but the idiot over at the lgf "watch" thinks your stance on evolution is a front so that you can more easily fall into line with your political master John McCain. He thinks you're actually a religious-fundie-creationist.

148 Dahveed  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:23:44pm

re: #118 mossley

My computer obviously hiccuped.

What I was going to say was that perhaps the earth has been particularly cool and is now normalizing. It's entirely possible that they could be negatively impacting the earth. I really don't think we have that great an impact. The fact remains that we are looking at the past 20, 50, or 100 years and the earth is 4.5 billion years old.

149 spqrzilla  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:23:52pm

Well, if you are going to quote Lambert, be sure to wash your hands before eating.

150 beens21  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:24:19pm

you know,99.96% of the atmosphere is NOT CO2.I've never understood how going from 350ppmillion to say 380ppm of CO2 could destroy the planet,as Gore contends.

151 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:24:21pm

re: #137 Typicalwhitey

OT
Ego anyone?

Hmm. An "Open Convention" that they charge a "donation" to get into. Is it just me or is there a contradiction there?

152 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:25:26pm
153 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:25:29pm

re: #136 JCM
I think the only way to get any sort of accurate measurement of global temperature variation is deep in the oceans. Several fixed points, in areas relatively unaffected by ocean currents. This 'average of surface temperature' is so much crap, so vulnerable to error, it infuriates me.

154 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:25:36pm

re: #145 Thanos

It was SPPI that put out the initial press notice that created all of this by stating that the paper was reviewed, and they are were I got the idea that the study was peer-reviewed. (now corrected thanks to LGF commenter Transient) They are anti-mmgw public policy institute, I haven't looked yet to see who the $$$ are behind them yet, but I will see if I can find out.

Could be Exxon.

155 MacGregor  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:26:11pm

Sun heats planet => planet gives off C02. C02 is highest at the end of every interglacial. As planet glaciates, C02 falls.

When heating the holiday turducken, the turducken gives off C02. You can't say the C02 accumulation in the oven is causing the heating.

Gore and Soros have huge investments in this hooey because it benefits "green" investments, carbon credits, and socialistic economic exploitation. They want a hand in your wallet and that is all.

156 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:26:25pm

re: #148 Dahveed
Exactly. The earth is working on a scale that we can't see. It takes millions of years for changes to occur. The last 100 years is no comparison at all. Hell, when I was in high school we were all gonna freeze and that was thirty years ago.

157 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:26:35pm

re: #140 whiterasta

re: #144 Charles

Yep, the point is that when people say "right wing blog" we always get lumped in there. I can't stop it, so it's just "whatever."

does that mean I'm no longer part of the VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY?

Charles, I want a refund !

158 David IV of Georgia  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:27:03pm

Thanks Charles. The math gave me an instant headache. That's why I dropped physics.

The basic equation has to do with:

[The change in temperature] is equal [to some change in energy per change in CO2 per meter^2]

If the data is correct, then the change in energy per change in CO2 per meter^2 = ΔF2x ≈ 3.405 / 3 ≈ 1.135 Watts*meter^-2.

and so on.

Anyways, it looks like this confusing math and data confused a scientist (Monckton) or he chose to deliberately report it wrong. It appears that he is forcing findings to fit previous models (the IPCC report in this case). From the article:

Did you spot what he just did? If you assume that there is no delay in warming (which is wrong) and McKitrick is right (which is also wrong), then you get a low value of sensitivity. If you also assume that the IPCC values for ΔF2x and f are correct, then their value of κ must be too high -- Monckton comes up with a number 20% less. But in the previous section Monckton argued that the IPCC value of ΔF2x was too high by a factor of three. If instead you use Monckton's number, the IPCC value of κ is too low.

What Monckton is doing is double counting his (dubious) evidence that sensitivity is lower than the IPCC number. If he had two pieces of evidence that sensitivity is half the IPCC number he would multiply them together to claim that sensitivity is one quarter the IPCC number. This is not correct.

159 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:27:53pm

re: #136 JCM

Why Does NASA Oppose Satellites? A Modest Proposal For A Better Data Set

No mention in the article about his connection with Soros, dagnabit.

160 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:28:10pm

re: #141 MandyManners

I try not to think about that angle too much.

I know what you mean. There are definitely days when I want to dig a whole in the sand a stick my head in. Unfortunately I am always afraid that the sand will be over crowded by leftists.

161 David IV of Georgia  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:28:20pm

I have to go. Don't stare at the numbers too hard.

162 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:28:57pm

re: #153 EC Marm

I think the only way to get any sort of accurate measurement of global temperature variation is deep in the oceans. Several fixed points, in areas relatively unaffected by ocean currents. This 'average of surface temperature' is so much crap, so vulnerable to error, it infuriates me.

When you take in all the uncompensated induced variables, the paint being changed, micro environments changing etc.... and add the long stability of mid-level ballon measurements and high level satellite measurement. The probable induced error quickly subsumes the 0.74°C gain of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

163 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:29:50pm

re: #47 Sharmuta

IMO, worse than the global warming hysteria is the politicizing of science in general. It is a great detriment to not only science, but regular non-science folks as well. I think it's laying a foundation for science to be mistrusted in the future when the global warming doesn't pan out or is better understood and thus revised. This will play into the hands of those seeking to truly undermine science in the eyes of regular people by the other group trying to politicize science- the ID crowd. They will use this as a club to beat the whole of science while hypocritically failing to mention the problem of forcing ideology into a field that should stick strictly to the scientific method and adhere to findings and not biases or faith.

I believe the media plays a big part in this. It's not just that they are always falling for the leftist point-of-view - which definitely slants their coverage of these issues - but their complete lack of understanding of the scientific process. It amazes me that the majority of people have a poor opinion on the news and journalists, but they still believe the latest craze du jour they spout.

The media promoted Sagan's idea of nuclear winter as a scientific theory, when in fact it hadn't even been submitted to a journal yet. When it was - after his book and media tour - his ideas were shredded by other physicists. People still believe it.

The media jumped all over the saccharine causes cancer paper. They ignored the follow ups that showed it was a flawed study , but the majority of people still think it's not safe. Then there's alar and apples, vaccinations and autism, SARS, the avian flu, the global cooling scares of the 70s, etc.

The trouble is the public isn't blaming the media for getting it wrong - they think the science is flawed. It's a dangerous situation.

164 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:31:17pm

re: #146 buzzsawmonkey

Spicy and flavorful, with celery on the side.


Let's not stalk about celery, okay?

165 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:31:23pm

re: #162 JCM
There are too many variables to accurately measure global mean temperature. I don't care what computer the scientists can plug their data into. The set of values is constantly changing due to the weather.

166 Geepers  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:31:41pm

MacGregor (#155),

When heating the holiday turducken, the turducken gives off C02. You can't say the C02 accumulation in the oven is causing the heating.

Wait, you're saying cause and effect aren't interchangeable?

This is getting confusing.

167 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:32:05pm

Well I must go eat dinner and watch my Red Sox beat those California Anahiem Los Angelos Angels of Anahiem. I will check back later.

168 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:32:38pm

re: #157 sattv4u2

re: #144 Charles


does that mean I'm no longer part of the VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY?

Charles, I want a refund !

Dang ! I thought we were neocon Elders of Zion !?!

169 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:32:42pm

re: #155 MacGregor

Sun heats planet => planet gives off C02. C02 is highest at the end of every interglacial. As planet glaciates, C02 falls.

When heating the holiday turducken, the turducken gives off C02. You can't say the C02 accumulation in the oven is causing the heating.

Gore and Soros have huge investments in this hooey because it benefits "green" investments, carbon credits, and socialistic economic exploitation. They want a hand in your wallet and that is all.

I think it goes a bit deeper than that. Soros and BHO want to rule the world.

170 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:33:30pm

re: #160 Ford_Prefect

I know what you mean. There are definitely days when I want to dig a whole in the sand a stick my head in. Unfortunately I am always afraid that the sand will be over crowded by leftists.

Come join me in my cave. No lefties there.

171 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:33:38pm

re: #163 mossley

..."The trouble is the public isn't blaming the media for getting it wrong - they think the science is flawed. It's a dangerous situation....."

The people are lapping up ignorance and superstition like they did thousands of years ago.

172 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:33:43pm

As a syndicated talk show host based out of Atlanta asks, if there is Global Warming OR Global Cooling, there has to be a "base" temperature that you have to start with as 'normal'. So the question is, what is the ideal "normal" temperature for the earth?

173 vxbush  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:34:05pm

Okay. I read part of the paper yesterday (which did include the text that it was not peer reviewed, which I also agree it was not if only one person read it).

While I cannot speak to the accuracy of the models, I can speak to the mathematics. And the big problem is that the models are using differential equations and and are boundary value problems. These are very powerful equations when you know the initial conditions. That's the problem here. We don't know the initial conditions, and so we have to guess. The results then are totally based on that guess.

The Viscount's paper said the IPCC had used values for some of the constants were not taken from many many papers but from only a few--no more than five, if I recall correctly.

So I would summarize some of the problems as follows:

1. The boundary value problems do not have clearly identified initial conditions.

2. The estimated values for some constants in the IPCC's work were based on less than five papers.

174 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:34:07pm

re: #170 MandyManners

Come join me in my cave. No lefties there.

Sounds cozy. The Red Sox can wait.

175 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:34:12pm

I believe in Global Warming, Fairies, Unicorns, and Santa Claus.

176 Dahveed  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:34:25pm

re: #156 pingjockey

I remember those discussions. People were so busy thinking that we were going to have another ice age. But the global warming junkies have decided that is part of the greater global warming process I suppose. They have made every change in yearly temperature is part of global warming under their scenario.

177 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:34:41pm

re: #167 Ford_Prefect

Well I must go eat dinner and watch my Red Sox beat those California Anahiem Los Angelos Angels of Anahiem. I will check back later.

not a good start. back to back home runs for the Angels in the bottom of the 2nd

178 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:34:46pm

re: #161 David IV of Georgia

I have to go. Don't stare at the numbers too hard.

The numbers...they burrrrrrnnnnnnnn.

179 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:35:27pm

re: #175 Racer X

I believe in Global Warming, Fairies, Unicorns, and Santa Claus.

Oh yeah? Well I believe in honest politicians!

180 Thanos  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:35:53pm

re: #154 Charles

Could be Exxon.

You know what's crazed? I"ve been looking into several groups behind WE as well, and you will find oil barons on both sides of the issue, along with biodiesel pimps, "clean coal" folks, and a large batch of traditional anti-nuclear energy groups.
SPPI is partly Lord Monckton but I'm not finding much on funding, or if they are actually allied with CPPI.

Last known funding from Exxon to their parent org was in 2002, only 100k.

The Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) is a United States based organization that is skeptical of human induced climate change.

It was formerly known as the Center for Science and Public Policy for the Frontiers of Freedom [1], a conservative think tank founded by former Republican senator Malcolm Wallop[2]. The institute describes itself as a

nonprofit institute of research and education dedicated to sound public policy based on sound science. Free from affiliation to any corporation or political party, we support the advancement of sensible public policies for energy and the environment rooted in rational science and economics. Only through science and factual information, separating reality from rhetoric, can legislators develop beneficial policies without unintended consequences that might threaten the life, liberty, and prosperity of the citizenry. [3]

The organization's Executive Director is Robert "Bob" Ferguson, a former Chief of Staff to Republican Congressmen Jack Fields (1981-1997), John E. Peterson (1997-2002), and Rick Renzi (2002). The chief science adviser to the institute is Willie Soon, PhD an astrophysicist and geoscientist, an opponent of man made global warming and advancer of the theory that climate change is caused by solar variation. The chief policy adviser is Christopher Monckton, a former special adviser to Margaret Thatcher and one of the UK's most prominent climate change sceptics. Further science advisers include William Kininmonth, Robert M. Carter, David Legates, Craig D. Idso, all known skeptics of man made climate change, and James J. O'Brien. Joe D'Aleo is the institute's Meteorology Adviser.

The institute has funded a film "Apocalypse No" intended to show the errors of the Al Gore film An Inconvenient Truth. It will show Monckton, chief policy adviser of the institute presenting a slide show to the Cambridge University Union examining climate change science. [4].

According to an non-cited page on ExxonSecrets.org, the Frontiers of Freedom Institute received a donation of $100,000 from ExxonMobil in 2002 for the foundation (in 2003) of the Frontiers of Freedom Institute's Center for Science and Public Policy [5].

181 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:36:03pm

re: #177 sattv4u2

not a good start. back to back home runs for the Angels in the bottom of the 2nd

AAAAARRRRGGGG!

182 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:36:05pm

re: #172 sattv4u2

As a syndicated talk show host based out of Atlanta asks, if there is Global Warming OR Global Cooling, there has to be a "base" temperature that you have to start with as 'normal'. So the question is, what is the ideal "normal" temperature for the earth?

Exactly!

To those who insist there is Global Warming™, I ask - how cold do you want it?

183 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:36:52pm

re: #162 JCM

When you take in all the uncompensated induced variables, the paint being changed, micro environments changing etc.... and add the long stability of mid-level ballon measurements and high level satellite measurement. The probable induced error quickly subsumes the 0.74°C gain of Anthropogenic Global Warming.


Yup. But it's one hell of a jobs program, is it not? Which may be, more than anything, the entire purpose of the alarmists.
Putting a couple of sensors deep in the ocean floor could not possibly employ as many people as having hundreds of stations, manned 24/7/365, recording readings, verifying integrity of paint density and drying time, compensating for fart blastage, and whatever other hookie nonsense we are being sold.

184 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:37:02pm

re: #182 Racer X

Exactly!

To those who insist there is Global Warming™, I ask - how cold do you want it?

I don't want it cold- I favor Global Warming. I think it's a good thing.

185 Thanos  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:37:13pm

.. and you know who I am trying to sniff out just to be safe.

186 Ford_Prefect  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:37:20pm

re: #179 Sharmuta

Oh yeah? Well I believe in honest politicians!

You are a dreamer. Really, I am going now.

187 debutaunt  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:37:33pm

re: #102 buzzsawmonkey

I have a cashmere overcoat and a pair of shorts.

I'm not worried.

Aha! Flasher outfit.

188 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:37:50pm

re: #163 mossley

Spot on.
I'm thinking also that the media is probably inherently biased toward scare stories. If alar isn't poisoning your children, there is no story, is there?

189 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:37:58pm

I have to go and cook supper.

The master-baster's grilled salmon:

[Link: allrecipes.com...]

Goodnight and G-d Bless.

190 MacGregor  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:38:10pm

re: #169 MandyManners

I think it goes a bit deeper than that. Soros and BHO want to rule the world.

Agreed. And this is the perfect smiley face issue.

191 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:38:18pm

re: #184 Sharmuta

I don't want it cold- I favor Global Warming. I think it's a good thing.

me too. I hope it gets so warm that we start wearing less and less clothes !

(well ,, FEMALE "we's" that is ! )

192 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:38:26pm

re: #180 Thanos

oil barons on both sides of the issue

T. Boone Pickens.

Also, what about Gore's realtionship to Occidental Petroleum?

193 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:38:30pm
194 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:39:05pm
195 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:39:07pm

re: #185 Thanos

.. and you know who I am trying to sniff out just to be safe.

I'm coming up blank.

196 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:39:36pm

I don't know about you folks, but here in L.A. it is not even 90 degrees out today. In mid July that is unusual.

197 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:40:06pm

re: #172 sattv4u2

As a syndicated talk show host based out of Atlanta asks, if there is Global Warming OR Global Cooling, there has to be a "base" temperature that you have to start with as 'normal'. So the question is, what is the ideal "normal" temperature for the earth?


'Leepro' (iinm) an lgf contributer, said recently that the average temperature across the planet is 54 degree F. I don't know about you, but I'm not gonna shit myself if that goes up to 55.

198 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:40:07pm

re: #190 MacGregor

Agreed. And this is the perfect smiley face issue.

Oh, I wish BabbaZee were here. She can tell all about the new face of Marxism and Gramscian Whoredom.

199 pat  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:40:37pm

I read the abstract of Monckton's paper. There is no doubt he has adopted the skeptics approach to Global Warming, a complete reversal. among the evidence that he cites to show the phenomena leading to the 1998 high actually equaled 2 times in the 20th Century is the buid up of temoeratures on Mars, Pluto and Jupiter. He then takes on the complete failure of the Warmists model to explain the current cooling trend in light of the 25% increase in CO2 since 1998.

200 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:41:20pm

re: #189 whiterasta

The master-baster's grilled salmon

I'll pass on that recipe, thanks.

201 Shay4l  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:41:22pm

Anyone with a shred of intelligence can see through the operation. Al Gore is the (well remunerated) point man used to push through the necessary lawmaking on the political side, and the real instigators make the money on the "carbon credits".

Follow the money.

202 vxbush  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:41:26pm

Oh, the paper also had a very nice graph of the amount of CO2 compared to the average temperature going back millenia. There was no relationship between the two, based on looking at the graph. Nothing linear or nonlinear. They seemed completely independent. Including long periods when the CO2 was much higher and the global average was much lower.

203 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:42:47pm

re: #197 EC Marm

'Leepro' (iinm) an lgf contributer, said recently that the average temperature across the planet is 54 degree F. I don't know about you, but I'm not gonna shit myself if that goes up to 55.

My God Woman ,,,, think of the poor POLAR BEARS !

204 opnion  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:42:53pm

Al Gore was on with Tom Brokaw this morning.
He asserted that the California fires this year were proof of Global Warming. OOOK, so i guess that never happened before.
The Earth is probably warming. It is a cycle that the planet goes through with or without us & making us drive ox carts won't change a thing.

205 MacGregor  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:43:32pm

re: #198 MandyManners

That's what it boils down to. And they're selling the media the rope to hang our productivity and freedom.

206 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:43:53pm

Long term earth temperature.Pretty damn cold right now.

207 Thanos  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:44:04pm

re: #195 MandyManners

I'm coming up blank.

The last name starts with an A.

208 Geepers  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:44:15pm

mossley (#163),

The media jumped all over the saccharine causes cancer paper. They ignored the follow ups that showed it was a flawed study , but the majority of people still think it's not safe. Then there's alar and apples, vaccinations and autism, SARS, the avian flu, the global cooling scares of the 70s, etc.

The latest craze du jour having been debunked is second-hand smoke is as dangerous as actually smoking. Ain't heard much about that one in the press have ya?

And I don't think the Lefty Press so much "falls" for this tripe as much as they "want" it to be true so science be damned, it's news.

And isn't it funny how they always report their pet causes as fact, yet can't but call the guy the cops shoot at the bank wearing a mask carrying a bag of cash the "alleged" perpetrator.

209 Palandine  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:45:34pm

Not worried about global warming.

In geologic time, we are just barely out of the last great Ice Age.

In 1816, the eruption of one volcano, Mt. Tambora, caused the year without a summer.

Between the power of the sun, and the power of the Earth, changes that humas can make are pretty puny. We should conserve because it saves money and we are stewards of the earth, but we delude ourselves if we believe our efforts have any long-term effects.

210 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:45:38pm

re: #204 opnion

Al Gore was on with Tom Brokaw this morning.
He asserted that the California fires this year were proof of Global Warming. OOOK, so i guess that never happened before.
The Earth is probably warming. It is a cycle that the planet goes through with or without us & making us drive ox carts won't change a thing.

Question for Algore.
How does the Peshtigo Fire calculate in that?

On the evening of October 8, 1871 the worst recorded forest fire in North American history raged through Northeastern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, destroying millions of dollars worth of property and timberland, and taking between 1,200 and 2,400 lives.
211 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:46:07pm

re: #207 Thanos

The last name starts with an A.

mmmm...Is he bigger than a breadbox?

212 Thanos  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:46:26pm

Here's Wallop, founded the parent org, and his friend Ebell.
Both seem ok on the surface.

213 vxbush  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:46:40pm

re: #208 Geepers

mossley (#163),

The latest craze du jour having been debunked is second-hand smoke is as dangerous as actually smoking. Ain't heard much about that one in the press have ya?

And I don't think the Lefty Press so much "falls" for this tripe as much as they "want" it to be true so science be damned, it's news.

And isn't it funny how they always report their pet causes as fact, yet can't but call the guy the cops shoot at the bank wearing a mask carrying a bag of cash the "alleged" perpetrator.

Oh, yeah. If they think it's true, it has to be!

214 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:47:29pm

re: #207 Thanos

The last name starts with an A.

Still blank.

215 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:47:41pm

I hate to say this, but let's go ahead and put the science aside for a second.

There is no way China, Russia or the Middle East is going to jump aboard the "no CO2" train even if the hippies can come up with the kind of proof that a) climate change is happening differently than it ever has and b) that it's caused by man.

If the hippies were serious they'd be talking about bombing Chinese coal plants.

216 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:48:33pm

re: #163 mossley

I believe the media plays a big part in this. It's not just that they are always falling for the leftist point-of-view - which definitely slants their coverage of these issues - but their complete lack of understanding of the scientific process. It amazes me that the majority of people have a poor opinion on the news and journalists, but they still believe the latest craze du jour they spout.

The media promoted Sagan's idea of nuclear winter as a scientific theory, when in fact it hadn't even been submitted to a journal yet. When it was - after his book and media tour - his ideas were shredded by other physicists. People still believe it.

The media jumped all over the saccharine causes cancer paper. They ignored the follow ups that showed it was a flawed study , but the majority of people still think it's not safe. Then there's alar and apples, vaccinations and autism, SARS, the avian flu, the global cooling scares of the 70s, etc.

The trouble is the public isn't blaming the media for getting it wrong - they think the science is flawed. It's a dangerous situation.

You bring up a couple of great points. I'm usually floored by the leftists in my own family who don't trust the media yet still toe their line. It's stunning.

As for the media hyping bad science- I think it goes hand in hand with their progressive leanings and the need for crisis. And you're right- it is dangerous.

217 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:48:42pm

re: #205 MacGregor

That's what it boils down to. And they're selling the media the rope to hang our productivity and freedom.

Yep.

218 nyc redneck  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:49:15pm

i don't buy into man made global warming.
i do try to be respectful of the earth tho.
we do live on it.
i recycle paper, glass, cans, and pick up litter when i see it on the ground.
i don't throw fast food trash out of moving vehicles. i make the stinky trucks turn off their idling engines when they are delivering beer to the bar next door. and i reuse aluminum foil. lol
that's is actually a lot more than some people i know who push the g.w. agenda. all talk and no action. not even sorting their trash properly and risking a ticket.

219 taxfreekiller[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:49:20pm
220 stevieray  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:49:36pm

The trouble is there seems to be a lot of "fudge factors" in all of the equations to get the real-world results and the computer model predictions to match.

My question for the AGW believers is this: Why the preoccupation with carbon dioxide? It is supposedly one of the weaker greenhouse gases, no where near as strong as water vapor or methane... and yet that is the gas they concentrate their energy [heh!] on. Why? [hint: he who controls energy controls the world economy]

If we are to move from oil to another fuel -- like hydrogen, wouldn't that increase global warming even more, as water vapor traps heat in the atmosphere far more effectively than CO2?

221 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:49:46pm

re: #216 Sharmuta

You bring up a couple of great points. I'm usually floored by the leftists in my own family who don't trust the media yet still toe their line. It's stunning.

As for the media hyping bad science- I think it goes hand in hand with their progressive leanings and the need for crisis. And you're right- it is dangerous.

The media crave crisis. If it bleeds, it leads.

222 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:49:48pm

The Heartland Institue

Good resource with data and links.

223 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:50:12pm

re: #188 wolfie

Spot on.
I'm thinking also that the media is probably inherently biased toward scare stories. If alar isn't poisoning your children, there is no story, is there?


Years ago, I took a part-time job at a local paper for some extra cash. First lesson I learned: the editors didn't give a damn about the truth. They wanted stories that would sell papers.

I really don't get the opinion people have that "if it's in the paper, it has to be true." Why? How did newspapers get this reputation as unbiased guardians of the truth? In the US at least, they started as political mouthpieces. Papers were the only forms of mass media until the 20th century, and a lot of the early papers had the party name included in their masthead.

224 opnion  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:50:51pm

re: #210 JCM

Al Gore does not get asked probing qustions. He is treated like an evironmental rock star. He sounds just as goofy as ever, buy hey , he has a Noble prize & an Oscar. Thats really all ya need to know.

225 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:51:00pm

The thing is, if we are warming and it caused by us, why do the leftists try to stop solar, wind, nuc plants? Hmmm.... They want the U.S. brought down, this is just the way to do it. They don't want alternatives.

226 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:52:14pm

re: #208 Geepers

mossley (#163)And isn't it funny how they always report their pet causes as fact, yet can't but call the guy the cops shoot at the bank wearing a mask carrying a bag of cash the "alleged" perpetrator.


As much as I agree with the rest of your post, this is a legal requirement. Until the guy is convicted of a crime, it's libel if the alleged isn't included.

227 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:52:22pm

Increased Carbon Dioxide is an effect, not a cause.

228 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:52:30pm

re: #220 stevieray

The trouble is there seems to be a lot of "fudge factors" in all of the equations to get the real-world results and the computer model predictions to match.

My question for the AGW believers is this: Why the preoccupation with carbon dioxide? It is supposedly one of the weaker greenhouse gases, no where near as strong as water vapor or methane... and yet that is the gas they concentrate their energy [heh!] on. Why? [hint: he who controls energy controls the world economy]

If we are to move from oil to another fuel -- like hydrogen, wouldn't that increase global warming even more, as water vapor traps heat in the atmosphere far more effectively than CO2?

Bovine faltulence is a serious problem and very serious science is being done.

SCIENTISTS are taking a novel approach to studying the potent gases that cause global warming, strapping plastic tanks to cows to collect methane emissions.

You have to see it to believe it.

229 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:53:45pm

Al Gore

" Does my ass make these pants look fat?"

230 opnion  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:53:46pm

re: #219 taxfreekiller

How ever the sun goes,
thereto both the earth and Al Gore go, too, also.

Al Gore is a quark gone from an atom smasher some years ago,
sort of an experiment particle gone astray.

Yes of course! Just like Farakhan pointed out that the White Devil came out of a botched lab experiment by a Black scientist, Al Gore escaped from a lab. Now I see.

231 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:53:55pm

re: #224 opnion

Al Gore does not get asked probing qustions. He is treated like an evironmental rock star. He sounds just as goofy as ever, buy hey , he has a Noble prize & an Oscar. Thats really all ya need to know.

He got the Noble Prize? Well damn, he must be onto something. I'll have to be more considerate of his opinions in the future.

/
*I threw up a bit writing that*

232 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:54:18pm

re: #221 MandyManners

The media crave crisis. If it bleeds, it leads.

Crisis helps them promote progressive solutions.

233 van helsing  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:54:24pm

There is no question that the climate of Earth changes. Instead of expending resources to fight that change based on questionable science, it would be wise to learn how to live with it. Make sure that we have the ability to produce food even though the temperature fluctuates a few degrees.

As someone asked up thread: What IS the 'correct' temperature for the planet?

234 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:54:39pm

re: #228 JCM

looks like the start of a Monty Python sketch !

235 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:54:44pm

re: #228 JCM
That is the stupidest thing I have ever seen! I spent 20 years in Uncle Sams canoe club and that is saying a lot.

236 debutaunt  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:54:49pm

re: #208 Geepers

mossley (#163),


The latest craze du jour having been debunked is second-hand smoke is as dangerous as actually smoking. Ain't heard much about that one in the press have ya?

And I don't think the Lefty Press so much "falls" for this tripe as much as they "want" it to be true so science be damned, it's news.

And isn't it funny how they always report their pet causes as fact, yet can't but call the guy the cops shoot at the bank wearing a mask carrying a bag of cash the "alleged" perpetrator.

Yes! Alleged-Global-Warming.

237 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:54:56pm

re: #223 mossley

Years ago, I took a part-time job at a local paper for some extra cash. First lesson I learned: the editors didn't give a damn about the truth. They wanted stories that would sell papers.

I really don't get the opinion people have that "if it's in the paper, it has to be true." Why? How did newspapers get this reputation as unbiased guardians of the truth? In the US at least, they started as political mouthpieces. Papers were the only forms of mass media until the 20th century, and a lot of the early papers had the party name included in their masthead.

Part of me would like a return of the partisan press. At least then, readers knew which was the news was spun.

238 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:55:09pm

We like tests right?

Take the Global Warming™ Test

239 pat  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:55:40pm

I wonder what motivates The American Physical Society to embrace, and then stubbornly cling to Global Warming in the first place. Why not just do what most astrophysicist did and wait to see how the solar cycle would play out? Advocacy science seems ever more common, but no more correct.

240 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:56:14pm
241 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:56:17pm

re: #200 Racer X

Heathen!

242 wolfie  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:56:57pm

One thing that puzzles me is why sea levels haven't risen, given that GWarming is supposed to tsunami the polar bears into oblivion.
(That was certainly the chief message of An Inconvenient Troof.)

My brother's an engineer in San Juan who works on marinas, ports, seaside resorts, etc. He says the average annual sea level on both the Atlantic and the Caribbean side of PRico has not risen since they started measuring it about 90 years ago.

243 opnion  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:57:09pm

re: #231 JCM

He got the Noble Prize? Well damn, he must be onto something. I'll have to be more considerate of his opinions in the future.

/
*I threw up a bit writing that*


The real pathetic thing is that the Polish woman who heroically rescued so many Jews In WWII was up at the same time (can't remember her name) They blew her off & gave it to Al Gore!

244 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:57:24pm

re: #237 MandyManners

Part of me would like a return of the partisan press. At least then, readers knew which was way the news was spun.

245 really grumpy big dog Johnson  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:57:44pm

My view of the request for a submission of a scientific article from a science society was a de facto request for something that they would subject to peer review.

I'm not sure why they failed to review that paper prior to publication, but what other reason would they have had for the request. If they felt that his conclusions had not been peer reviewed, and already had an iron-clad belief that his findings were unsupportable, if not to be reviewed, why the request at all?

No reasons for this slap to the face other than the only obvious reason that I can see. They had no intention of their own peer review, the intention in requesting a submission was to humiliate and repudiate the author, without even a slight effort to explain why their refutation and humiliation was justified.

Please don't tell me that politics is not within this process. It's pathetically obvious that it is. What's the point of a science society requesting a paper without any intent of legitimate review of the science behind it?

There is none. I'd sue them for wilful defamation.

246 SaneInMN  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:57:48pm

It's not just Monckton...and btw, Charles, The Discovery Institute is not the only corner of the world were ideological driven pseudo-science takes place. Ever worked for, or around any university Ecology Dept.? I have, and half of them are just as nuts, but with NSF funding.

From [Link: www.powerlineblog.com...]

Blowing the Whistle on Global Warming

David Evans was a consultant to the "Australian Greenhouse Office" from 1999 to 2005. He is a former global warming alarmist; however, he is also a scientist who goes where the evidence leads him. In this important article in The Australian, he blows the whistle on the fraud that many of the world's governments are in the midst of perpetrating:

I DEVOTED six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office. I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector.
FullCAM models carbon flows in plants, mulch, debris, soils and agricultural products, using inputs such as climate data, plant physiology and satellite data. I've been following the global warming debate closely for years.

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

There has not been a public debate about the causes of global warming and most of the public and our decision makers are not aware of the most basic salient facts.


You really need to read the whole thing to get the full impact, but here are a few highlights:

1. The greenhouse signature is missing. We have been looking and measuring for years, and cannot find it.
Each possible cause of global warming has a different pattern of where in the planet the warming occurs first and the most. The signature of an increased greenhouse effect is a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics. We have been measuring the atmosphere for decades using radiosondes: weather balloons with thermometers that radio back the temperature as the balloon ascends through the atmosphere. They show no hot spot. Whatsoever.

If there is no hot spot then an increased greenhouse effect is not the cause of global warming. So we know for sure that carbon emissions are not a significant cause of the global warming. ...

2. There is no evidence to support the idea that carbon emissions cause significant global warming. None. ...

3. The satellites that measure the world's temperature all say that the warming trend ended in 2001, and that the temperature has dropped about 0.6C in the past year (to the temperature of 1980). ...

4. The new ice cores show that in the past six global warmings over the past half a million years, the temperature rises occurred on average 800 years before the accompanying rise in atmospheric carbon. Which says something important about which was cause and which was effect. ...

247 pat  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:57:48pm

re: #172 sattv4u2

As a syndicated talk show host based out of Atlanta asks, if there is Global Warming OR Global Cooling, there has to be a "base" temperature that you have to start with as 'normal'. So the question is, what is the ideal "normal" temperature for the earth?

In the current century, a chilly 54 degrees F.

248 stevieray  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:58:01pm

re: #228 JCM

You have to see it to believe it.

I wanna see someone spark up a cigarette near that cow... BOOM! That cow really will jump over the moon! It looks like something that you'd strap to the space shuttle!

249 Geepers  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:58:25pm

mossley (#163),

As much as I agree with the rest of your post, this is a legal requirement. Until the guy is convicted of a crime, it's libel if the alleged isn't included.

True enough.

Too bad the public can't sue for being sold unproven Lefty social cause bullshit as scientific fact.

250 Right Brain  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:58:25pm

In addition to Mr. Monckton's paper at the American Physical Society there is another equally startling, and unanswerable broadside appearing from down under, in The Australian.

Australia's author of the "Carbon Accounting Model," Dr. David Evans, has blown the whistle on the ever more farfetched methods being employed by the ecocondriacs to prove that the C02 layer of the troposphere is heating, when one data set after another is showing otherwise. There is widespread consensus among the global warming advocates that there should be a hot spot ten klicks up over the tropics, its not there. End of story.

[Link: www.theaustralian.news.com.au...]

251 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:58:26pm

re: #240 buzzsawmonkey

You still have to get the energy from somewhere.... Coal, oil, natural gas or (gasp!) nukes.

There is no free ride.....

252 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:58:32pm

re: #243 opnion

The real pathetic thing is that the Polish woman who heroically rescued so many Jews In WWII was up at the same time (can't remember her name) They blew her off & gave it to Al Gore!

I consider the Nobel Prize these days to be right up there with the Pullet Surprise.

Either one and a buck will buy a cup of coffee.

253 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:59:19pm

re: #240 buzzsawmonkey
Well that might be considered a solution. OMG...we can't have that.

254 nyc redneck  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:59:20pm

re: #242 wolfie

One thing that puzzles me is why sea levels haven't risen, given that GWarming is supposed to tsunami the polar bears into oblivion.
(That was certainly the chief message of An Inconvenient Troof.)

My brother's an engineer in San Juan who works on marinas, ports, seaside resorts, etc. He says the average annual sea level on both the Atlantic and the Caribbean side of PRico has not risen since they started measuring it about 90 years ago.

truth doesn't matter to someone like algore.
this is his glory moment, not to mention money maker,
and way of getting revenge.

255 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:59:22pm

re: #233 van helsing

There is no question that the climate of Earth changes. Instead of expending resources to fight that change based on questionable science, it would be wise to learn how to live with it. Make sure that we have the ability to produce food even though the temperature fluctuates a few degrees.

As someone asked up thread: What IS the 'correct' temperature for the planet?

I've recently have taken to talking to people about this exact aspect. I usually ask, "ever hear of the Ice Age?" That usually gets them thinking.

As to the rest of your post- I agree. Our resources would be better spent accepting climate change and working towards ways to ensure human survival regardless of temperature increases or decreases.

256 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:59:34pm
257 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 3:59:42pm

re: #248 stevieray

I wanna see someone spark up a cigarette near that cow... BOOM! That cow really will jump over the moon! It looks like something that you'd strap to the space shuttle!

Boeuf Flambé!
*French for BBQ*

258 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:00:41pm

re: #238 Racer X
9 out of 10. I don't agree with the first question. I believe the average temp has dropped since the year 2,000.

259 DeathtotheSwiss  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:00:47pm

re: #230 opnion

If Ferry-Con believes that, then is there no reason to feel bad about slavery anymore? I mean, obviously that has to be a false story if genetic manipulation didn't occur until well over a hundred years later.

260 pat  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:00:53pm

Since 1990 the biomass of the world has increased by 25%. With cooling we shall see a dramatic die off. Mostly plants. But those plants harbor a lot of insects and birds.

261 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:00:59pm

re: #256 buzzsawmonkey

True. But I submit that it is easier and cleaner to expand powerplant capacity than it is to blow vast sums on some bullshit hybrid.

Can people make money on an old techology?

262 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:01:16pm
263 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:01:23pm

re: #256 buzzsawmonkey

Excellent point. Stop trying to use logic in this arguement.

264 opnion  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:01:27pm

re: #252 JCM

I consider the Nobel Prize these days to be right up there with the Pullet Surprise.

Either one and a buck will buy a cup of coffee.

It has been devalued about like , oh I don't know, Editor of Harvard Law Review.

265 Honorary Yooper  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:01:48pm

re: #232 Sharmuta

Crisis helps them promote progressive solutions.

Always has. Remember, we planned during the war (WWI).

266 MandyManners  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:02:31pm

re: #248 stevieray

I wanna see someone spark up a cigarette near that cow... BOOM! That cow really will jump over the moon! It looks like something that you'd strap to the space shuttle!

Youtube has some clips but, not of cow flatulence. (That's all I'm saying about the subject.)

267 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:03:17pm

re: #148 Dahveed

My computer obviously hiccuped.

What I was going to say was that perhaps the earth has been particularly cool and is now normalizing. It's entirely possible that they could be negatively impacting the earth. I really don't think we have that great an impact. The fact remains that we are looking at the past 20, 50, or 100 years and the earth is 4.5 billion years old.

I'm waiting for my next encounter with a global warming moonbat; I'm want to get them going about how man is ruining the planet, and then suggest we need to get the planet back to the way it was. I'm going to see if I can get them to agree with me that the Hadean Era rocked. Then I'll casually mention why it's named after Hades.

Hmm, global warming moonbat - a globbat? Glowarbat? Gwarbat?

268 Son of the Black Dog  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:03:42pm

re: #116 nyc redneck

i wonder how many scientists publish pro- global warming papers because of job/money pressures.
or bribes.

If you don't think correctly on Global Warming, you don't get grant money.

269 Iron Fist  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:04:16pm

re: #215 DeathtotheSwiss,

If the hippies were serious, They'd be in favor of nuclear power. No CO2 emmissions whatsoever. Save the Planet! Nuke it!

270 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:04:34pm

How cold would you like it to be?

271 Geepers  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:05:21pm

jcm (#228),

SCIENTISTS are taking a novel approach to studying the potent gases that cause global warming, strapping plastic tanks to cows to collect methane emissions.

You have to see it to believe it.

Methane being lighter than air they best be careful, their test subject might float away.

272 JCM  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:06:11pm

re: #269 Iron Fist

,

If the hippies were serious, They'd be in favor of nuclear power. No CO2 emmissions whatsoever. Save the Planet! Nuke it!

Even the founder of Greenpeace is pro-nuc these days.

273 Sharmuta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:06:23pm
274 Empire1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:06:27pm

re: #179 Sharmuta

Oh yeah? Well I believe in honest politicians!

We have a WINNAH!

275 pingjockey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:06:42pm

re: #271 Geepers
Or blow up like the Hindenburg!

276 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:07:13pm

re: #242 wolfie

Well, wasn't the rise supposed to be the devastating rate of a few centimeters per century or something equally silly?

277 cargocultist  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:07:35pm

Painting by numbers: NASA's peculiar thermometer

This is why my name is cargocultist. I have seen this many times on smaller scales.

278 Opilio  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:08:05pm

re: #243 opnion

The real pathetic thing is that the Polish woman who heroically rescued so many Jews In WWII was up at the same time (can't remember her name) They blew her off & gave it to Al Gore!

Irena Sendler, February 15, 1910 – May 12, 2008 (age 98).

R.I.P Irena

279 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:08:13pm

re: #256 buzzsawmonkey

Speaking of BS hybrid nonsense. I saw a study that stated that a Commie Prius has to have the nickel for it's batteries mined in Canada, shipped to Australia for processing and then shipped back to Canada to be installed in that ugly POS.

No links but trust me on this....

(What happened the last time a man said, "Trust me?")

280 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:09:19pm
281 jaunte  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:10:10pm

re: #273 Sharmuta

The larch are on the march.

282 gozza  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:10:12pm

Tim Lambert is left wing AGW propagandists. I dont understand why LGF would ever quote anything this socialist has to say.

283 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:10:25pm
284 quickjustice  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:10:37pm

About a year ago, I heard a debate between two climate change scientists here in NYC: one (from SUNY) defending human-caused global warming, and the other (from MIT) opposing it.

First I was impressed by the mutual respect between the two men, and by how much of the data they agreed upon. They drew radically different conclusions from that data, however. They also agreed that "An Inconvenient Truth" sensationalized the data in a way that amounted to "scare tactics".

Three points I took away from the debate: (1) reasonable people trained in climate science can disagree about this issue, and disagree profoundly; (2) the actual CO2 data (demonstrating increases in CO2 in the atmosphere) do not correlate with the warming Gore predicted, i.e., it should be getting much warmer much faster if Gore were correct; (3) this is a debate about multiple, complex systems, which scientists still understand poorly.

The MIT (anti-global warming) scientist noted, among other things, that trying to accurately predict climatological changes on a planet where 80% of the surface is fluid (liquid water), and hence highly volatile, is probably impossible.

And the SUNY (pro-global warming) scientist said that even if humanity ceased to exist today (i.e., all human-caused CO2 output ceased), it would take 40 years for temperatures to be affected at all. And that's assuming Gore has it correct.

285 Racer X  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:11:01pm

I am all in favor of energy conservation, alternate fuel sources, reduced pollution, and all that.

The past few months the price of oil has skyrocketed. Food costs are way high. I blame biofuels.

286 Anthony (Los Angeles)  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:11:32pm
an idea that has been refuted by several climate scientists.

Sloppy. He means "disputed." To refute is to disprove conclusively. So several climate scientists "dispute" Monckton. Great. Science is made by the back and forth of argument and evidence. That some scientists dispute his findings shouldn't even be noteworthy.

FWIW, I think solar activity is the largest driver of climate change, "refuted" or not.

287 Pythagoras  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:12:35pm

One data source to keep an eye on is:

[Link: nsidc.org...]

Click on the daily image update to enlarge it. The rapid recovery of the arctic sea ice from last year is quite a surprise because of the positive feedback effects (less ice means the area is darker and absorbs more solar energy). The reversal of the trend mocks last year's predictions of an open arctic. The NSIDC write-ups are still claiming the ice will open up soon (somewhat).

Check back for daily updates of the graph.

288 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:13:14pm

re: #228 JCM

Oh. My. God.

All that and Argentina only produces ½ of 1% of the world's methane gases. That's one-half of one percent!

289 whiterasta  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:13:29pm

re: #283 buzzsawmonkey

The biggest pimp of that ugly POS just got busted for a drug offense.

Steven Page of the shitty excuse of a band called the Bare Naked Ladies...

Bwwaaahahahah!

290 stevieray  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:13:45pm

re: #261 MandyManners

Can people make money on an old techology?

Yes. But not the correct people. The AGW folks want the UN and NGOs to make money, not power companies and their shareholders.

The trans-nationalists have given up on gaining direct control of the world's economy [for now...], and instead have decided to shape the world according to their whims by indirect means -- the control of the world's energy, and therefore the means and location of production, transport, and consumption of pretty much everything.

291 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:13:50pm

re: #201 Shay4l

Anyone with a shred of intelligence can see through the operation. Al Gore is the (well remunerated) point man used to push through the necessary lawmaking on the political side, and the real instigators make the money on the "carbon credits".

Follow the money.

Carbon credits are a distraction. follow the real money. China is booming as industry flees Europe for a cheap ticket.

292 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:14:44pm

re: #225 pingjockey

The thing is, if we are warming and it caused by us, why do the leftists try to stop solar, wind, nuc plants? Hmmm.... They want the U.S. brought down, this is just the way to do it. They don't want alternatives.

I think we should make them all live with the hardcore Old Order Amish for a growing season so they can find out what exactly will happen if they get their wishes.

Then I realize there is no reason to punish the Amish like that.

293 Thanos  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:15:27pm

Sorry to take so long to get back Mandy...
Howard Ahmanson. Not seeing the association however.

I was reading the full on science food fight over at Tim Lambert's

294 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:15:36pm

re: #284 quickjustice

but ,, But ,,, BUT , Al Gore has told us there is a CONSENSUS amongst scientists, and that the debate is CLOSED !

295 doriangrey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:16:42pm

I have a new theory... Sorry to thump Charles so hard but... My theory proves ID.... Laundry..........................Thats right Laundry...... Laundry is proof that god exists and designed the universe.... Only a deity with a warped sense of humor would have created a living creature with the need to wear cloths and a nose sensitive enough to notice that it stinks and needs to wash its cloths....

296 mossley  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:17:56pm

re: #237 MandyManners

Are there any right-leaning papers left?

297 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:18:01pm

re: #92 Charles

It is atypical, yes -- but as far as I can tell, the APS had no choice. They were correcting a rapidly-spreading false report, and probably getting a lot of email and media attention.

The best example was Drudge. He ran an entry that said "repping" a group of 50,000 physicists. Of course and online newsletter on a specific topic ("physics and society") does no such thing.

If the media (and Drudge is that) were responsible in reporting perhaps the APS would never had to post that disclaimer.

298 vapig  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:18:03pm

Personally, I like what the late, great George Carlin had to say about it.

299 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:19:40pm

re: #295 doriangrey

what are these "clothes" you speak of.

Please send answers to

SATTV4U2 ,,,, c/o Fun Times Nudist Colony

300 doriangrey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:22:46pm

re: #299 sattv4u2

what are these "clothes" you speak of.

Please send answers to

SATTV4U2 ,,,, c/o Fun Times Nudist Colony

They are those damed things you have to take to the luandry mat and pay money to clean every few days... And if sattv4u2 isnt a hot young (21 to 40 years old) female being a nudist is just plain gross.... ;P

301 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:22:57pm

re: #279 whiterasta

Speaking of BS hybrid nonsense. I saw a study that stated that a Commie Prius has to have the nickel for it's batteries mined in Canada, shipped to Australia for processing and then shipped back to Canada to be installed in that ugly POS.

No links but trust me on this....

(What happened the last time a man said, "Trust me?")

And what happens when one of those batteries needs to be replaced. Batteries go bad eventually, and we've all now been brainwashed with the hazmat-related problems associated with old battery disposal, haven't we?!

Next rain-maker?

302 quickjustice  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:23:07pm

re: #294 sattv4u2

Hey, the Goracle has become an international celebrity thanks to this crusade, and a very wealthy man, thanks to the Google IPO. That money enabled him to finance "An Inconvenient Truth" himself, a huge leg up.

Gore has longstanding connections to some very shady characters, in particular a Canadian "businessman", all of whom stand to profit from any and all carbon trading schemes, and other proposals to reduce CO2 emissions. They're all positioned to cash in on this new "trend".

I am more interested in reducing CO2 emissions (oil and gas consumption) to break the economic backs of the Arab and Venezuelan oil producers, and bring down fuel prices domestically. That means going nuclear big time, and expanding hydro-power. In other words, it's a national security issue for me, not a global warming issue.

303 JeremyR  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:23:18pm

re: #279 whiterasta

Speaking of BS hybrid nonsense. I saw a study that stated that a Commie Prius has to have the nickel for it's batteries mined in Canada, shipped to Australia for processing and then shipped back to Canada to be installed in that ugly POS.

No links but trust me on this....

(What happened the last time a man said, "Trust me?")

I remember reading about how the area arround where the bateries are made is toxic, but I thought it was the cadmium.

304 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:24:21pm

re: #282 gozza

Tim Lambert is left wing AGW propagandists. I dont understand why LGF would ever quote anything this socialist has to say.

To debunk it, Einstein!

Come here often?

305 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:28:09pm

re: #300 doriangrey

They are those damed things you have to take to the luandry mat and pay money to clean every few days... And if sattv4u2 isnt a hot young (21 to 40 years old) female being a nudist is just plain gross.... ;P

ummmm,,,, yeah ,, 23 y/o female ,,, 5' 4",,,,125 lbs ,, 36 D/ 24/ 35 ,,, long dark hair ,, hazel eyes ,,,, thats me !

(hey ,, it's the internet, I an be anything, right ?)

306 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:28:46pm

re: #301 LeePro

And what happens when one of those batteries needs to be replaced. Batteries go bad eventually, and we've all now been brainwashed with the hazmat-related problems associated with old battery disposal, haven't we?!

Next rain-maker?


The local fire companies have to be trained in how to deal with a car fire with one of those suckas, too. Apparently water and electricity is a bad combination. Woulda thunkit?

307 Dr. Shalit  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:29:10pm

re: #70 Alberta Oil Peon

According to Monckton's response to the APS,as quoted at the American Thinker blog, the articlewas peer-reviewed, and furthermore, the APS invited him to submit it.

Is this going to boil down to what constitutes peer review?

"A.O.P." -

Looks like it to me, in fact the whole thing looks like Lucy VanPelt moving the football on "Good 'ol Charlie Brown." By the way, why is Mars also getting warmer? Mars Rovers?

-S-

308 doriangrey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:29:34pm

re: #305 sattv4u2

ummmm,,,, yeah ,, 23 y/o female ,,, 5' 4",,,,125 lbs ,, 36 D/ 24/ 35 ,,, long dark hair ,, hazel eyes ,,,, thats me !

(hey ,, it's the internet, I an be anything, right ?)

Liar............such a described woman would know all about clothing... and Laundry..... ;P

309 reno911  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:30:50pm

re: #296 mossley

Investor's Business Daily.

310 quickjustice  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:30:58pm

re: #285 Racer X

If the federal government stopped subsidized grain-based ethanol with your tax dollars, food prices would come down immediately. That won't happen in the short term, because farm state politicians have allied themselves with ethanol producers.

So poor people must starve, and middle class people struggle, because grain-based ethanol producers line their pockets with billions in federal subsidies. This is evil, and unfortunately, some of it is coming from corrupt incumbents in the GOP.

311 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:32:41pm

re: #245 really grumpy big dog Johnson

My view of the request for a submission of a scientific article from a science society was a de facto request for something that they would subject to peer review.

The request for submission came from an online newsletter of a special interest group. Monckton is a well known skeptic of some of the conclusions published about climate change and man's role in it.

It would have been more appropriate to the newsletter and its spirit if Monckton would have written a letter discussing the scientific process and why he thinks society is not being served well by it.

Instead he wrote a letter which tries (and fails IMO) to refute actual research that has been published in peer review journals. To do what Monckton desires to do, he should have submitted his paper to peer reviewed research journals such as Geophysical Research Letters or International Journal of Climatology.

However, Monckton is trying to game the system. He successfully entraps the uneducated (e.g. Sheppard) and gets egg of the face of the online editor of an APS newsletter.

This issue will cause a bit of a controversy in the scientific community.... not because of any significant research on the part of Monckton (and indeed some of his claims have already been known to be false), but rather on how poor procedures within the scientific community causes backlash from the public.

312 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:33:04pm

re: #308 doriangrey

Liar............such a described woman would know all about clothing... and Laundry..... ;P

such a described woman would know all about PRE NUPTUAL AGREEMENTS, BMW's and JEWELRY!

313 Dr. Shalit  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:33:10pm

re: #137 Typicalwhitey

OT
Ego anyone?

"Whitey" -

If no one else has said it - I believe Sen. Obama spells it "EGGO."

-S-

314 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:34:16pm

re: #197 EC Marm

'Leepro' (iinm) an lgf contributer, said recently that the average temperature across the planet is 54 degree F. I don't know about you, but I'm not gonna shit myself if that goes up to 55.

I said that?

I'll gladly take the credit if you have link, but I think the credit should go to someone else...

;)

315 Crimsonfisted  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:35:05pm

re: #71 EC Marm

His writing is tough to parse (and maybe intentionally so) but this future he looks forward to give me the creeps.


Maybe he is just a bad writer?

And his vision for the future is scary.

316 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:38:44pm

re: #314 LeePro

I said that?

I'll gladly take the credit if you have link, but I think the credit should go to someone else...

;)

At least you got credit for posting something intelligent. I get it for stupid stuff !

(well, in fairness ,, i type a lot of stupid stuff !)

317 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:38:54pm

re: #308 doriangrey

Liar............such a described woman would know all about clothing... and Laundry..... ;P

Why?
Because she is "the little woman"?

Mr JimPro does his own laundry. And he is extremely happy!

/25-year anniversary next year!

318 garycooper  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:39:35pm

And, the Stupid Notions keep on coming, like the ocean: [Link: www.wired.com...]

See, we'll save the bi-polar bears, by transplanting them to Antarctica! What could go wrong? That is, unless you're a penguin.

The AGW-hysteria is still in hyper-drive, despite the rising numbers of publicly-skeptical scientists. There are billions of dollars in grant-monies at stake, and those who threaten the industry's life-blood are ruthlessly censored.

319 EC Marm  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:41:23pm

re: #314 LeePro

I said that?

I'll gladly take the credit if you have link, but I think the credit should go to someone else...

;)


I see that 'pat' above made the same comment about the temperature, maybe it was her. I sometimes have a little trouble remembering all of the 20,000 lgfers.

320 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:41:52pm

re: #313 Dr. Shalit

"Whitey" -

If no one else has said it - I believe Sen. Obama spells it "EGGO."

-S-

ROTFLOL!

And as to your link... now they're offering backstage passes, like at a rock concert...!

/barf

321 sattv4u2  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:42:13pm

re: #319 EC Marm

I see that 'pat' above made the same comment about the temperature, maybe it was her. I sometimes have a little trouble remembering all of the 20,000 lgfers.

don't feel bad. I sometimes have trouble remebering all of my one child !

322 reno911  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:42:56pm

Not to be a gratuitous Charles congratulator, but he's right about being skeptical about global warming reporting.

My rule of thumb is that whatever leftists are against, I'm for.

323 doriangrey  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:44:31pm

re: #317 LeePro

Why?
Because she is "the little woman"?

Mr JimPro does his own laundry. And he is extremely happy!

/25-year anniversary next year!

No..... Because she would know exactly how men react to what she wears. And love it when the bump into shit and knock themselves senseless because they were watching her instead of where they were going...

324 Webler  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:51:38pm

Blue Planet in Green Shackles by Václav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic

"The largest threat to freedom, democracy, the market economy and prosperity at the beginning of the 21st century is no longer socialism. It is, instead, the ambitious, arrogant, unscrupulous ideology of environmentalism.''

It would seem to me that environmentalism has thrown socialism a life line.

I also thought that President Klaus had another quote floating in Web land, but I can't find it at the moment.

I thought what he said (paraphrased) 'Global warming activism is nothing but wealth redistribution in action.'

325 Archimedes  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:52:58pm

How many here have seen the Bob Carter lecture on Global Warming?

If not, I recommend it:

He's an Australian scientist. His credentials are given in the intro.

326 pat  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:53:56pm

In a few short years, it is my guess that Canadians will be asking that we up our CO2 emissions.

327 lawhawk  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:55:27pm

I'm certainly skeptical on the global warming reporting, and even more so of its proponents, particularly Al Gore - the high priest of the global warming crowd.

The science is far from settled as the APC kerfuffle shows. Yet Gore has done his best to not only politicize the issue, but instill a sense of religious obligation to follow his instructions or else imperil the planet.

Of course, Gore hopes to profit handsomely from his speeches given all over the world (jetsetting and not teleconferencing), to say nothing of his involvement in various carbon trading schemes.

Gore's overheated rhetoric doesn't stand up to the science, because if he were to admit that there are other things out there that might affect the climate, people might choose to look to them as the source of temperature changes on the planet (like, um.... the sun), and not the big bad emissions that he so hopes to control.

But, via emissions, Gore and the environmentalists know that they can control a larger segment of the population through more rigorous regulations and that's worrisome. The most recent energy bill contained just a fraction of what Gore hopes to accomplish - including mandates of specific kinds of lighting. And with courts involved determining that carbon dioxide was a pollutant, it opens the door to even more chicanery given that CO2 is exhaled by every living human being on the planet.

328 nyc redneck  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 4:55:56pm

it's not politically correct to question global warming. you are not a 'nice' person if you do. you are not being fair to helpless animals. etc.
it's really frightening when that kind of mumbo jumbo shuts down debate in science. the left is trying to hold us hostage w/ such statements. and push w/out any objection, a false agenda that works for them.
you start to wonder how far backwards they would try to take us in their zeal to grab power. what truths would they sacrifice?
it's stunning how quickly people get on board. because it's trendy.
so many pols saying 'climate crisis', now.
and algore forming a pyramid scheme shell game to defraud the public. he should be arrested and prosecuted as a criminal. why is he being applauded? given a nobel prize?
and bumper stickers on gas guzzlers saying 'i'm carbon credit green' (or what ever).
the world is very nutty now.

i think i can see why charles keeps shining a light on the efforts of i.d. proponents to get their ideas into public schools.
science and reason are being challenged on so many fronts today.
it seems like we are at a stand still just struggling to hold onto what we've achieved as a modern society.

329 grumpy old codger  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:00:41pm

re: #97 buzzsawmonkey

No, there isn't.

The reason Northern Africa is a desert is that it was overfarmed during the Roman Empire, at which time it was the Empire's breadbasket.


Given what the Arabic conquest did to Mespotomia, in terms of the destruction of the populace and the canal system, I don't think that the impact of the Arab conquest of North Africa cannot be dismissed as a contributing factor. After all, if they were so peaceful, why do the Tuaregs still sport the cross as their favorite motif?

330 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:01:37pm

re: #327 lawhawk

The science is far from settled as the APC kerfuffle shows.

Hmmmm, I think I'd say that the APS "kerfuffle" shows that human nature doesn't change, and that people desire to argue about things whether or not there is any additional merit to doing so.

331 RichatUF  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:06:34pm

Someone above asked about the "Chip Designer" comment:

This is an older paper which discusses the center of mass of the sun and the center of mass of the solar system on sun spots. This is another paper.

Lifted them from these 2 article at the AT here and here.

332 Abdullah al-Libi  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:09:53pm

We wouldn't even be talking about this if that jerk Ralph Nader hadn't lied in order to destroy the nuclear power industry in this country.

333 ecor1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:11:14pm

people I know who are in the APS tell me that in fact the council of the APS does not speak for its members and the council is composed just a few members who obviously have axes to grind.

Notice that they make the assertion " lots of scientists disagree" and then they state the fact: the council of the aps does not agree

yes its only the council.

the problem with global warming is that the globe isnt getting hotter than it was in 1940.

and USHCN ( the group that actually keeps the historical records of the US) says that the USA, the horrible co02 polluter, states that a lot of the USA is getting cooler and published a map to prove it.

thats the whole thing in a nutshell

334 Ledger1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:12:53pm

I am an expert Climatologist.

I can assure there needs to be more research on gas, problem flatulence and climatology.

For example I have not completed my emissions estimations let alone my scientific paper. I will need another $720,000 to do so.

Please tell George Soros to wire another $720,000 to my Swiss bank account so I can continue my important research.

Research doesn’t come cheap!

Thank you.

/

335 Chip Designer  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:16:01pm

re: #331 RichatUF

Thanks for the reference papers.

It is interesting to note that the sunspot cycle 24 hasn't really started yet, which is in opposition to NASA forecasts.

Another point which I have not seen widely mentioned is that our planet has a 24K year wobble in our rotation. The effect of this wobble is to move the Arctic Circle. It is currently about as far north as it gets, and will move south for another 12K years. This seems to roughly align with the last few ice ages.

336 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:16:38pm

Oh, and on this whole supposed Hansen-Soros connection thing, I don't know if Dr. Hansen's rebuttle was ever posted here or not, so here it is:

(PDF) [Link: www.columbia.edu...]

But then I received a call from the President of the Government Accountability Project (GAP) telling me that I had won the Ridenaur Award (including a moderate amount of cash -- $10,000 I believe; the award is named for the guy who exposed the Viet Nam My Lai massacre), and offering pro bono legal advice. I agreed to accept the latter (temporarily), signing something to let them represent me (which had an escape clause that I later exercised).

I started to get the feeling that there may be expectations (strings) coming with the award, and I was concerned that it may create the appearance that I had spoken out about government censorship for the sake of the $. So I called the President of GAP, asking how the nomination process worked and who made the selection. He mentioned that he either nominated or selected me. So I declined the award, but I continued to accept pro bono legal advice for a while.

The bottom line is: I did not receive one thin dime from George Soros.

337 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:18:48pm

re: #336 freetoken

BTW, the above quotes are a partial quote, but I did not put in my usual "[...]" to signify that.

338 RichatUF  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:20:42pm

freetoken-

think I'd say that the APS "kerfuffle" shows that human nature doesn't change, and that people desire to argue about things whether or not there is any additional merit to doing so

The AWG community is out to burn the heretics to protect their paradigm. That the APS would want to steer clear of this is understandable. Moreover, how is "consensus" science anyways? AWG seems like cargo cult science to me.

339 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:21:55pm

re: #335 Chip Designer

If you want to know more about Milankovitch Cycles, here are the wiki pages... there are many other resources online.

340 LesLein  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:23:29pm

46 -- "Who decided warming was bad?"

More people die from cold weather than hot weather. The predicted warming trend for this century, if it happens, may save lives.

----------

15 -- "I would say there is a "very probably likely" chance that there will be egg on faces. It will be interesting how quickly the trickle of global warming advocates, abandoning the SS Globalwarming, will become a deluge of rats as the ship sinks faster and faster."

The reason global warming advocates are desperate to end debate and enact legislation is to claim credit for any future cooling trend.

----------

According to the researchers at the Jungfraujoch, the average European glacier during Roman times extended at least 300 meters longer more than it does today. They go on to say that climate trends change every 2000 years.

I guess chariots left a big carbon footprint.

341 buzzsawmonkey[deleted]  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:23:58pm
342 Chip Designer  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:31:11pm

re: #339 freetoken

Thanks for the reference.

I have suspected that meteor impacts have had an effect on the earths complex orbit, and that is why they have had difficulties in aligning orbital cycles with ancient climate data. There is no guarantee that todays wobble is the same as was present 1 million years ago.

343 grumpy old codger  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:32:13pm

re: #341 buzzsawmonkey

The mongol invasion may have had more of an impact in the two rivers area, but North Africa was the bread basket for Rome until well after the end of the Republic. Given that the ROP is so tolerant of native cutlures, religions and customs, the destruction of the North African granery must have been an accident.
/sarc

344 grumpy old codger  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:32:42pm

re: #342 Chip Designer
VELIKOVSKY!

345 really grumpy big dog Johnson  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:34:09pm

re: #311 freetoken

The request for submission came from an online newsletter of a special interest group. Monckton is a well known skeptic of some of the conclusions published about climate change and man's role in it.

It would have been more appropriate to the newsletter and its spirit if Monckton would have written a letter discussing the scientific process and why he thinks society is not being served well by it.

Instead he wrote a letter which tries (and fails IMO) to refute actual research that has been published in peer review journals. To do what Monckton desires to do, he should have submitted his paper to peer reviewed research journals such as Geophysical Research Letters or International Journal of Climatology.

However, Monckton is trying to game the system. He successfully entraps the uneducated (e.g. Sheppard) and gets egg of the face of the online editor of an APS newsletter.

This issue will cause a bit of a controversy in the scientific community.... not because of any significant research on the part of Monckton (and indeed some of his claims have already been known to be false), but rather on how poor procedures within the scientific community causes backlash from the public.

Right on the Newsletters home page of the APS website is the statement regarding their content:

Newsletters

Physics and Society is the quarterly of the Forum on Physics and Society, a division of the American Physical Society. It presents letters, commentary, book reviews, and reviewed articles on the relations of physics and the physics community to government and society. It also carries news of the Forum and provides a medium for Forum members to exchange ideas. Opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the APS or of the Forum. Contributed articles (up to 2500 words, technicalities are encouraged), letters (500 words), commentary (1000 words), reviews (1000 words), and brief news articles, are welcome. Send them to the editor or (for reviews) to the reviews editor. Macintosh disks (accompanied by hard copy) are welcome, as is hard copy. Co-Editors: Al Saperstein and Jeffrey Marque. Reviews Editor: Art Hobson. Electronic Media Editor: Pushpa Bhat.


Given the prior disclaimer, what's the justification for the red-letter disclaimer of this particular letter submission? There was one letter submitted by two authors who are "pro" anthopogenic warming.

The Editor's Comments for this current quarterly of their newletter has salient information regarding this issue.

The opposing viewpoint is represented in this issue. I see no indication that this article was peer reviewed, either. Why no red-letter warning?

I think the Editor's Comments for this issue pretty much tell us all we need to know about the bias of this particular forum, and thus it's credibility.

Editor's Comments

With this issue of Physics & Society, we kick off a debate concerning one of the main conclusions of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN body which, together with Al Gore, recently won the Nobel Prize for its work concerning climate change research. There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion...

Emphasis is mine.

I also find it strange that you've been registered here for over 30 months, yet nearly half of all the comments you have posted here (over 800) have come in the last two months. No agenda?

346 Chip Designer  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:40:43pm

re: #344 grumpy old codger

I'm not a believer in Velikovsky, (I prefer gravity over electro-magnetism for orbital mechanics) but I do think that meteor impacts have had a much greater effect over time than they have been given credit for.

The presence of chevrons on many coast lines indicates that a number of really big rocks have fallen in the oceans in geologically recent times.

347 bbuddha  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:43:15pm

#298 VAPIG
rofl. thanks I needed that

348 ecor1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:49:03pm

Charles you are wrong

I'm going to have to part company with some people on this, because if the paper was not peer reviewed (and I haven't seen anything proving the contrary) then the APS had little choice but to put some kind of notice on it. The "peer reviewed" story was all over the place -- Drudge Report drives a huge amount of traffic to stories.

I don't blame the APS. They were correcting false information.

Peer review in science occurs when the editors of the publication select one or more outside reviewers to look at your manuscript. the definition you quoted is not real and not in practice. I have published a lot, and have reviewed a lot. I know the practice

in the 80's when there was more actual discourse a publication like JBC had three reviewers, and if you disagreed, you could request a forth.

Nowadays JBC uses two reviewers and sometimes one, and some publications just use one.

So Lord Moncktons paper was reviewed by peer review. The problem with most climate papers is that there is no peer review even thought the people claim that there is. Most climate people are made up os scientific cabals. Take a look at any major publication in the field and then do a cross reference. you will see that in climate "science" everybody is cross authoring each other papers. so the "reviewer is usually someone that you have previously published with. That means that the "peer review" that is usually claimed is not peer review at all.

the problem with climate science is that it is not science in the usual sense. Most times you make a hypothesis, and say if I am correct then this or this will be true and then you look for it. In climate science you can not an experiment and therefore you cant test anything. All you can do is say, well if it works this way then X should happen.

Well one of the X's is the atmosphere getting hotter where the co2 is in a layer in the troposhere up to 10 to 15000 feet.

there hasnt been any change.

And historical measures of Co2 are much higher than what is present now

so the entire co2 theory is dead

if you could directly pump co2 into a section of the atmosphere and then see if the ground below got hottoer, that would be nice. but you cant do it.

Climate "science" is like medicine in 1850. everybody has some theories and expound quite carefully, but no body can do an experiment

349 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:51:32pm

re: #348 ecor1

Whatever all of that was supposed to mean, I'm not wrong. The article wasn't peer reviewed.

350 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 5:56:52pm

re: #342 Chip Designer

The mass of the earth is quite large compared to meteorites.

The volume of a sphere is proportional to the cube of the radius. In the last 1 million years or so there probably hasn't been a meteor hit the earth larger than the size of an automobile (otherwise we'd find either a really really big crater or some significant climate impact in the record; see the crater in AZ as an example of a meteor about the size of a VW bug). Perhaps a slightly larger ice comet might have hit the earth, but they blow up in the atmosphere upon heating.

The earth is 8000 miles in diameter, an auto about 8 feet (if it were a sphere). Assuming densities are the same between a meteorite (of 8 feet diameter) and the earth, that means the ratio of the mass is
((8000x5280ft)/8ft)^3
which means the earth would be around 10^20 (= 100,000,000,000,000,000,000) times more massive than that dinky meteorite.

Perhaps a long time ago, in the early stages of the Earth, our planet was hit by quite large objects. Indeed, that is one theory on the formation of the moon. This though leads us into the dating of the Earth issue, and that is probably best left to the ID threads as I see that even this morning there was a big discussion on dating (on the last ID thread.)

351 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:02:13pm

re: #345 really grumpy big dog Johnson

Given the prior disclaimer, what's the justification for the red-letter disclaimer of this particular letter submission?

I already stated the reason. Drudge (and others) clearly ignored the standard disclaimer. Therefore the APS had to add the "shout" (red letters) so those who were ignoring the standard disclaimer would take notice.

I also find it strange that you've been registered here for over 30 months, yet nearly half of all the comments you have posted here (over 800) have come in the last two months. No agenda?

I find it strange that you even bothered to do so much research on me. Have it occurred to you that over years peoples' situations change? In case it matters (and it should not, but since you are intent to wear a tin foil hat on this one), when I registered I was traveling internationally, and it wasn't until a couple of months ago that I have had a decent amount of spare time to read and comment online.

Now, what is your agenda r.g.b.d.J ?

352 J'accuzzi  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:03:48pm

Carbon dioxide is a vital plant food and this process produces oxygen as a byproduct. Why are these anti-carbon dioxide militants being given a free ride to spread their nonsense?

353 ecor1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:10:20pm

charles, it was peer reviewed . period. the outside reviewer reviewed Moncktons paper. That is it. The reviewer did exactly what a reviewer does

Now if Monckton had requested a pal to review the paper and the publication said no, we want somebody else to do it, and Monckton had refused and said you must publish it anyway, and they did, then the APS could say it wasnt peer reviewed. but if APS selects a reviewer and APS sends the paper to them for review and it comes back with comments which Monckton fixes and resubmits the paper, that is exactly what peer review is.

I have absolutely no idea why you think that the article was not peer reviewed

What I was also trying to tell you is that this concept of peer review is simply a canard for people who havent ever submitted a scientific paper. In climate science there is no actual peer review for many papers, because there are groups of people who cross publish with each other. So when the journal requests a review and it gets sent to a friend, he isnt going to kill the paper is he? Or if the editor who knows that he depends on you for his grant sends it to somebody who you just published a paper with, do you think that is an honest "peer review"

Certain journals like the Proceedings of the National Academy or PNAS specialize in this. Any academy member can just say yeah its ok publish it and it gets in. And at the same time, I have had papers accepted for publication at PNAS and an academy member got wind of it and killed the publication because he was a competitor, even though the review process is supposed to be secret.

So to sum up, Moncktons paper was peer reviewed.

the only chance that it wasnt peer reviewed is if he selected the reviewer and then why would the APS publish it in the first place, because it would be against policy.?

If you think that this happened the APS should just say so

354 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:11:22pm

re: #353 ecor1


I have absolutely no idea why you think that the article was not peer reviewed

Perhaps because the APS says it is not?

355 really grumpy big dog Johnson  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:17:47pm

re: #350 freetoken

The mass of the earth is quite large compared to meteorites.

The volume of a sphere is proportional to the cube of the radius. In the last 1 million years or so there probably hasn't been a meteor hit the earth larger than the size of an automobile (otherwise we'd find either a really really big crater or some significant climate impact in the record; see the crater in AZ as an example of a meteor about the size of a VW bug). Perhaps a slightly larger ice comet might have hit the earth, but they blow up in the atmosphere upon heating.

The earth is 8000 miles in diameter, an auto about 8 feet (if it were a sphere). Assuming densities are the same between a meteorite (of 8 feet diameter) and the earth, that means the ratio of the mass is
((8000x5280ft)/8ft)^3
which means the earth would be around 10^20 (= 100,000,000,000,000,000,000) times more massive than that dinky meteorite.

Perhaps a long time ago, in the early stages of the Earth, our planet was hit by quite large objects. Indeed, that is one theory on the formation of the moon. This though leads us into the dating of the Earth issue, and that is probably best left to the ID threads as I see that even this morning there was a big discussion on dating (on the last ID thread.)

Absent from your discussion of relative mass is the effect of relative velocity on the force of impact. I find that interesting. Since we have no written historical record of truly large impacts upon the earth, we don't know all that's involved in those events.

Just as a supertanker is such a huge ship that it takes a very small amount of horsepower to maintain cruising speed in the ocean (due to fluid dynamics on a macro level), we have no human observational experience of what happens when an object, say the size of Manhattan Island, enters our atmosphere and strikes the earth.

We can assume that it is cataclysmic. The enormous velocity associated with that size means that at least a large cloud mass of debris will impact the earth at incredible speed, if we are talking about an iron meteor or an iron-rock amalgam.

356 really grumpy big dog Johnson  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:28:09pm

Whatever you think, freetoken. My in-depth research took about one minute. As an anonymous entity on the internet you can make up any story you want, or you can tell the truth.

But I'm not aware of many people traveling for prolonged periods of time overseas (unless in the military) who haven't had considerable amounts of downtime in hotels or rented accomodations far away. Most of those hotels have had internet access, often free, for years now. And if I was overseas, I sure would want to have internet for those times when I was stuck, even in a rented apartment or house.

There was another reason, I suspect. 800 posts in two months is extensive, roughly one post per every waking hour for the average person.

357 freetoken  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:31:19pm

re: #355 really grumpy big dog Johnson

Absent from your discussion of relative mass is the effect of relative velocity on the force of impact.

Yes, on purpose, because the explanation was getting too long as it was....

If the scalar value of the (linear) momentum of the earth = M*V, and that of the meteorite = m*v, and M and m differ by around 20 orders of magnitude, small differences between V and v aren't so important. Of course V and v really are vectors and the earth-moon system's orbit around the sun is rather a bit more complex.... but the point I was trying to make is that any likely meteorite to hit the earth in the past 1 million years is pretty small.

Since this is a "global warming" thread, much more significant changes happened starting 3 million years ago with the onset of North American glaciation and the most likely cause of that is attributed to plate tectonics (e.g., creations of Panama.) It doesn't appear that meteorites (or comets) had much to do with that.

358 stevieray  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:43:31pm

re: #353 ecor1

I have a relative who was a geologist for the USGS for many years. He published quite a few articles on his area of expertise, exotic terranes of the Pacific Northwest, and he routinely talked about the process.

My memory of those talks jibes with your definition of peer review -- a study of the paper by a competent expert, chosen by the publisher, usually with a Q and A correspondence between reviewer and author.

If Lord Monckton's description of the events are accurate, then the review that the APS conducted would be considered a peer review. The APS turned the paper over to a third party of their choosing, who read it and asked a series of question, and Monckton responded to them before the paper was published.

If the APS didn't want that to count as a peer review, they should have stated so before hand... to Lord Monckton at least, and perhaps publically as well.

359 Chip Designer  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:54:59pm

re: #350 freetoken

I agree that the mass of the earth is huge in respect to a meteor (The meteor that formed the crater in Arizona was estimated to be 300000 tons.) But isn't that enough to introduce a small wobble in the earth's rotation? After all, a 24,000 year period is not much of a wobble.

360 damnyanqui  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 6:56:58pm

Put a couple of...?
Oh, sensors?
I thought you said put a couple of senators on the ocean floor.
Darn. I had more than a couple I'd like to suggest.
This is one frustrating issue. As a non-scientist, I want the truth.
I don't want to dismiss either the notion of global warming or of manmade global warming just because I don't want them to be true.
As a non-scientist, I am forced to use non-scientific questions to evaluate scientific issues:
Questions like... which of these supposedly expert scientists do I actually trust to deliver an objective scientific analysis?
Questions like... why are all the people yelling the loudest about global warming the same raving lunatics who have been demanding the dismantling of America's lifeblood internal-combustion based industrial infrastructure, for totally different reasons, for decades?
Questions like... why is it that these same people are also the same ones who've campaigned the hardest against the only large scale non carbon emitting power source not subject to the caprices of weather and topography, nuclear power?
Questions like... if we are to dismantle our internal-combustion based industrial infrastructure, what real, viable, feasable alternatives, that actually exist today, do you propose we replace it with? (and no. Windmills and solar don't provide enough energy and conservation provides no energy at all.)
Questions like... cui bono?
Questions like... would you believe any of these people even if they told you the sky was blue?
Hell, if they told me the sky was blue, I'd start doubting the evidence of my own eyes when I looked up.
Are global warming, or manmade global warming real? I don't know. If they are, the implications are pretty scary.
But I'm not hearing enough, one way or the other, from someone with honest, non politically poisoned, credibility, to believe.

361 kahall  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 7:12:08pm

re: #54 Charles

I appreciate the update on the matter as I had not seen it. But global warming is still a big, giant, HOAX!

362 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 7:47:00pm

re: #353 ecor1

The article was not peer reviewed.

363 MacGregor  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 7:53:26pm

Peer review is flawed - double-blind studies have more credibility.

364 rustynail  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 8:01:06pm

re: #239 pat

I wonder what motivates The American Physical Society to embrace, and then stubbornly cling to Global Warming in the first place. Why not just do what most astrophysicist did and wait to see how the solar cycle would play out? Advocacy science seems ever more common, but no more correct.


Pat, you're right on the money, except that science seeks answers to hypotheses, not absolute, politically effective results. What we are seeing hay nothing to do with science, except for your very cogent term "advocacy science". BTW, advocacy science seems to appear in the popular media, not in peer reviewed scientific publications.

365 dmjboose  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 8:54:11pm
In the article, Monckton, the 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, also claims that changes in solar activity are behind the warming trend of the past few decades, an idea that has been refuted by several climate scientists.


Any papers/articles out there on why this theory is wrong? I've heard it tons of times before.

366 ecor1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 8:55:05pm

test

367 ecor1  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 8:56:30pm

the peer review was performed

here it is. and Charles I expect you to comment on this

it is too long to post

Reviewer: Professor Alvin Saperstein, Professor of Physics, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan
June 2008
Figures and tables
Labeling: There are no ordinate or abscissa labels on many figures. All figures now redrawn and relabeled clearly
Figure captions: No clear separation between figure-captions and general text. Captions now drafted and set in italics
Tbl. 2 I don’t understand it. Table now removed: new Table 2 inserted, captioned, and explained
Fig. 1 appears to contradict Fig. 2: in 1, TS is going down; in 2 it is going up.
[Comment on this discrepancy, on the actual data of past years, not on the projections].
Explanation now provided that the NCDC dataset anomalously shows a rising trend
Fig. 2 can’t read figures on left. Figure now clarified
Fig. 4, 5 can’t read at all. Don’t understand them, or where they came from. Some hints needed.
Figures now clarified, captioned, and explained fully in the text
Fig. 6 no ordinate labels. Don’t understand it, or where it came from. Some hints needed.
Figure now labeled, clarified, captioned, and explained fully in text
Fig. 7 is clear. Make more of it: it contradicts the GW claims. Discussion paragraph on this figure now added
Fig. 8 has overprinting, making it very hard to read or understand. I don’t understand it. Figure clarified and explained
Definitions
“TS”: People mean different things about TS; clarify that further. Now defined clearly at the beginning of the paper
“Radiative forcing”: Define it. Now defined clearly early in the paper
“ΔF”: Define it. Is it directly measurable? If so, what data do we have? [you criticize IPCC for not providing a definition!]
Definition and discussion of this parameter now provided
“Other anthropogenic forcings”: What is meant by this? Why are they net-negative? New table and explanation added
“Temperature feedback”: Define it. Feedback of what to what? Now defined clearly early in the paper
“Unamplified temperature feedback”: Define it. Now defined and explained as not yet amplified

368 yesandno  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 9:12:32pm

There is no science of climate change. Consensus is not science.*

Consensus, or reference to "majority" opinion, is a tool of many used to demonstrate the democracy of their opinion and not the veracity of facts. Used by any who would want to manipulate others to their ways of thinking...Marxists, for example. The tyranny of the majority might well be called consensus.

*Rush

369 Alberta Oil Peon  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 9:43:47pm

re: #302 quickjustice

Hey, the Goracle has become an international celebrity thanks to this crusade, and a very wealthy man, thanks to the Google IPO. That money enabled him to finance "An Inconvenient Truth" himself, a huge leg up.

Gore has longstanding connections to some very shady characters, in particular a Canadian "businessman", all of whom stand to profit from any and all carbon trading schemes, and other proposals to reduce CO2 emissions. They're all positioned to cash in on this new "trend".

I am more interested in reducing CO2 emissions (oil and gas consumption) to break the economic backs of the Arab and Venezuelan oil producers, and bring down fuel prices domestically. That means going nuclear big time, and expanding hydro-power. In other words, it's a national security issue for me, not a global warming issue.

You must be thinking of Maurice Strong. And maybe the company he keeps.

A character right out of an Ian Fleming novel.

370 Charles  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 9:49:01pm

re: #367 ecor1

This is not a peer review. The article was not peer reviewed, and your account is now history because you refused to stop posting this lie.

371 Alberta Oil Peon  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 9:59:23pm

re: #240 buzzsawmonkey

If internal combustion engines are so all-fired bad, you'd see a concerted effort by the anti-internal-combustion-engine crowd to bring back trolley-buses in a big way.

Chicago had a trolley-bus system still in place in the early '70s; they scrapped it just in time for the Carter energy crisis. The trolley bus is a bus that runs entirely on electricity, and takes its power from the cable network stretched over the streets. You can see pictures of these cable networks in every photo of every major city prior to about 1960.

No need to go nuts with hyper-expensive hybrids. No need to try and run stuff off of as-yet-undeveloped rechargeable batteries. Just run ordinary buses --on tires, no rails or tracks--that take their power from a cable system.

Easy. Fast. Cheap. And nobody is talking about them.

Vancouver, B.C. still has its trolley buses. Some of them are very old indeed, and there are some newer ones as well. They last a very long time. They can out-accelerate the Diesel buses, by the way.

372 LeePro  Sun, Jul 20, 2008 11:11:40pm

re: #355 really grumpy big dog Johnson

Absent from your discussion of relative mass is the effect of relative velocity on the force of impact. I find that interesting. Since we have no written historical record of truly large impacts upon the earth, we don't know all that's involved in those events.

Hmmmm...

Hmmmm...

And hmmmm again...

There's much more, too, just from a simple Google search...

/jus' sayin'

373 freetoken  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 12:38:09am

re: #367 ecor1

the peer review was performed

here it is.

Editing a newsletter for readability is different than peer review of research!

A true peer (= people knowledgeable in the field) review of Monckton's paper would have dealt with the following problems:

(1) logical consistency and adherence to the scientific process, or lack thereof;
(2) lack of references to specific and contemporary research on the topics raised in the paper (which in Monckton's case is a considerable oversight.)
(3) explanation of why the author's conclusion would differ from that already accepted in the community of climate scientists, and how the author would defend his conclusions or how his conclusions could be falsified.

That is what Monckton's letter did not receive. All his letter received is basic editorial suggestions so the reader could follow his writing better.

The whole point of peer review is to help an author provide better research for the community to which he is writing. It is one of the methods used in science to provide the highest quality research possible.

374 taxfreekiller[deleted]  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 3:23:43am
375 mbabbitt  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 8:42:35am

I am not a scientist but after a lot of time researching, all I know is that the only major dataset that shows global warming over the last decade is GISS, the surface temperature one from -- guess where -- James Hansen and NASA. The satellite data, RSS, UAH, both show cooling. And HADCRUT (UK originated land and sea data) also does not show any warming. So, if you went on the evidence only of C02 up, Temperatures flat or down, you would conclude, with common, untwisted, sense that the theory of climate forcing from C02 has a real problem. Also, if readers would follow for a time Steve McIntyre's blog, ClimateAudit.org, at the very least they would be amazed at how non-transparent James Hansen and the Global Warming superstars (in government agencies and academia) are about their data and methodologies. Seeing that skeptics have to force or coerce (using the Freedom of Information Act) or persuade the major AGW scientists to share their work with others, you are force to conclude that they are probably hiding something. I think this will be the Post Mortem story of the AGW hysteria -- that scientists knowingly, in full view of the world, hid their work -- and the media did not follow these breadcrumbs. This will be seen as a disgrace for both science and the media.

376 LieSeeker  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 8:55:38am

The review was by a physicist for a physics newsletter. It was a review by a peer of the readers, not a peer of Lord Monckton or climatological modelers.

"American Physical Society and Monckton at odds over paper"

377 Charles  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 9:59:00am

re: #376 LieSeeker

It was reviewed for publication in the newsletter. This is not a scientific peer review in any sense, and the APS was right to place that disclaimer on the article.

378 LEGION  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 11:37:13am

I still say GW being a mostly man made event is bullfeathers. It is a new religion (like lord obama's campaign) because it does not allow counter arguments. They are sick wackos who want to control us through their edicts like all commie socialist liberal demorat wackos, and should be defeated!

379 Optimizer  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 11:46:41am

I think there's probably a bit of overemphasis on the "peer-reviewed" status of the subject paper. I cannot claim to be an expert on the process, but I have the distinct impression that a paper having such a status is no guarantee that the claims and/or theories put forward are true.

I've only had a few papers published with my name on it, and was not much involved with the submission/approval process. All I really know about the first case is that my academic adviser was the guy who decided whether a paper would be published, and he hold me ahead of time that it would be (I don't even know whether there was a claim of "peer-review").

I expect the author of the subject paper is correct in his most important claims, but would not consider it "proof positive" even if his paper was uniformly declared "peer reviewed". You'd need a validated climate model, plus years of predictions proved correct to really carry the credibility needed.

Aside from that, I find the "Is so!...Is not!...Is so!...Is not!..." nature of the discussion here a bit disturbing, especially in it's outcome. It didn't seem to me like anybody was trying to be abusive, IMHO, but that there was some legitimate room for differences of opinion.

380 Optimizer  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 12:03:18pm

re: #375 mbabbitt

Ditto. I like ICECAP, as well.

Mostly, I think the only decent temperature data to pay attention to is the satellite data that only goes back about 30 years. The surface data that goes back about 100 years has all kinds of problems, the main one being Hansen himself "adjusting" it all over the place. Data that goes back further than that is "proxy" data, that has problems of its own. Regardless of what the estimates say - or don't say - there is historical, archaeological, and geological data that tells us that climate has changed significantly over the centuries without any help form us. Ice ages. Vikings farming in Greenland.

Twenty years ago, Hansen gave his landmark "Chicken Little" speech to Congress. All a lay person has to do is look at the satellite record of global temperature for the time since then. Hansen predicted runaway temperatures due to higher CO2 concentrations. Well, the CO2 has gone up exponentially, alright. But the temperatures only went up for about ten years. After that, the temperature has been pretty flat, and it's probably starting to go back down (even the alarmists admit that!). The actual outcome did not agree with what Hansen claimed, and so his theory is busted. It's as simple as that. Ten years has got to be too long to be some sort of aberration.

381 LieSeeker  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 2:27:23pm
the CO2 has gone up exponentially

You might want to redraw your Keeling Curve so it shows the other 300 units below it which are usually omitted. A change of 350 (you said 20 years ago) to 390 is a little hard to reasonably fit to an "exponential" curve. While you're at it, consider adding the missing 0.000000 ahead of your CO2 units.

382 really grumpy big dog Johnson  Mon, Jul 21, 2008 8:05:17pm

re: #372 LeePro

Hmmmm...

Hmmmm...

And hmmmm again...

There's much more, too, just from a simple Google search...

/jus' sayin'

I'm sorry, but I'm not identifying any objects yet the size of Manhattan or larger that have hit the earth and been observed (even from very far away) and written about by man. You might have used my size criteria as part of your quote of me.

Please tell me of any witnessed impact of any object of a diameter greater than 10 miles or 16 kilometers during the written history of man, not postmortems on events that happened long ago.

383 cferraro04  Wed, Jul 23, 2008 7:44:25pm

Global warming has become the religion of the left...the unfortunate thing is that this little sham is going to cost us all dearly... I wonder how much stock Al Gore has in flourescent light bulbs?

[Link: www.globalwarminghype.com...]


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