Jerry's writing is usually brilliant.

well, if Obamassaiah gets elected, there will be nothing to worry about. He's going to Change the World.

/HOpe !

And the US is sliding into a Depression with Inflation.

Sorry, lost me right there.

/taking the rest with a grain of bull[expletive deleted]

He has always been insightful. I hope his vision is wrong, but alas, I fear he is spot on.

Well, the party is almost over. It's been fun being the lone super-power. Last one to leave, turn out the lights.

This also from the link. Amazing.

McCain sent an op-ed piece to the New York Times. Obama had one last week, so it was hardly surprising. The Times rejected McCain's editorial demanding that

"the article would have to articulate, in concrete terms, how Senator McCain defines victory in Iraq. It would also have to lay out a clear plan for achieving victory -- with troops levels, timetables and measures for compelling the Iraqis to cooperate.

"And it would need to describe the senator’s Afghanistan strategy, spelling out how it meshes with his Iraq plan."

Astonishing. All this before the mighty New York Time will accept an op-ed piece by the nominee of the Republican Party. Which tells us pretty well all we need to know about where the Times stands on the election. Read again what the editors demanded. Think on it.

Wow, I didn't know he had a blog! Bookmark time! He's always been very thoughtful and with a good, plainspoken style. His Falkenberg's Legion stuff is very well done and surprisingly timely, pick it up if you haven't read it yet.

re: #3 noshariaincanada

Hitler had a vision.
Stalin had a vision.
Mao had a vision.
Pol Pot had a vision.

The change we can believe in is the subject of our nightmares from the 20th century.

I like h9is sci-fi. Hadn't read his blog before. Some of the stuff he says I agree with, some not so much. I am puzzled by his alliance with Israel remarks.

re: #7 Militant Bibliophile

Wow, I didn't know he had a blog! Bookmark time! He's always been very thoughtful and with a good, plainspoken style. His Falkenberg's Legion stuff is very well done and surprisingly timely, pick it up if you haven't read it yet.

As long as it's not in German. The translator was a Communist and he deliberately screwed it up.

Good ol' Chaos Manor! I'd almost forgotten about Jerry... I guess it's been a while since I've gotten a BYTE magazine.

re: #8 calcajun

Hitler had a vision.
Stalin had a vision.
Mao had a vision.
Pol Pot had a vision.

The change we can believe in is the subject of our nightmares from the 20th century.

amen to that.

I'm no expert on Turkey, but I can't conceive of the Army not acting.

Lots of opinion, not many facts.

He seems very focused upon Foggy Bottom as being the crux of the problem. The Turkish Army doesn't give a rat's ass what our State Department does or doesn't do.

From July 6.

ISTANBUL (AFP) - A Turkish court has charged two retired generals in connection with a shadowy grouping that allegedly planned to oust the government, the Anatolia news agency reported Sunday.

Hursit Tolon and Sener Eruygur, former four-star generals, were charged with "setting up and leading an armed gang" and remanded in custody, media reports said.

They were among 21 suspects -- most of them known government critics -- rounded up Tuesday in dawn raids in five cities as part of a controversial probe into a network called Ergenekon, which allegedly aimed to discredit and oust the country's Islamist-rooted ruling party.

SNIP

I've got to disagree with Pournelle on Afghanistan as well. We did far more with far less than the Soviets ever accomplished with multiple divisions over the span of nearly two decades. It may be right that we now need additional forces to go after the Taliban, but that's not because the Taliban are operating freely in Afghanistan (they aren't), but because they're operating with immunity in Pakistan and crossing the border at will.

Without getting Pakistan on board, the situation in Afghanistan will be one of repelling Taliban invasions of Afghanistan with regularity (along with regularly running Taliban death counts in so-called wedding attacks).

As for Turkey, the situation is indeed difficult, but if you want a better idea of what's going on in Turkey (or Lebanon for that matter), Michael Totten has a far more firm grasp of the situation than Pournelle.

the Turkish Constitution says the Armed Forces are there to guarentee the Secular government of Turkey. The Army will act if they have to, global public opinion and even future EU membership be damned.

re: #9 pingjockey

I like h9is sci-fi. Hadn't read his blog before. Some of the stuff he says I agree with, some not so much. I am puzzled by his alliance with Israel remarks.

His remarks in reference to our alliance with Israel colors all his other comments and are troubling. As for Turkey sliding towards an Islamic Republic, maybe. But were are the great masses of Freedom loving Muslims that Obama was just talking about? And if they do slide towards Islam, they can kiss their EU application good bye.

"And the US is sliding into a Depression with Inflation. We simply cannot afford long term continued intervention in the Middle East, not without some expectation of return, and we seem to have foregone the notion of making the war pay for itself"

I fear he is right on the depression with inflation
who is going to pay to bail out not only the banks
but the homeowners who can't afford to pay their mortgages ?

those of us that can pay our mortgages, but with perhaps some difficulty are going to pay via higher taxes until we too cannot pay and then the great depression happens, in earnest

of course, McCain could get elected
remove the troops from Iraq & Saudi Arabia instantly unless we get some oil out of the deal(s) and bomb Iran, who after all, is run by the same thugs who took over by force in 1979
and who have only gotten; bolder, richer, more militant

re: #18 chicagodudewhotrades

the Turkish Constitution says the Armed Forces are there to guarentee the Secular government of Turkey. The Army will act if they have to, global public opinion and even future EU membership be damned.

The Turkish Army has acted before to preserve the secular state.
You have to know though, that the Islamists in the present government is attempting to purgre the Senior Officers thet are not with them.
The Army may have to act soon.

re: #19 Nevergiveup

And if they do slide towards Islam, they can kiss their EU application good bye.

Uh, the rest of Europe might actually be more radical then the Turks by then.

re: #22 calcajun

Uh, the rest of Europe might actually be more radical then the Turks by then.

One can only hope they wake up soon enough.

re: #23 Nevergiveup

Unfortunately, among the ones who see aware to the danger are those groups which are neo-Fascist or ultra-right, with little political power or credibility to do anything. The more they talk, the more they hurt the cause.

re: #4 Killian Bundy

And the US is sliding into a Depression with Inflation.

Sorry, lost me right there.

In my opinion the weight given to housing inflation in inflation numbers during the period from 2001-2007 was too light. So now, with the same weight and housing in major decline it is hardly being reflected in the inflation numbers. I'd say a little better than stagnant economy with low to moderate inflation. Depression? No way.

I didn't know who Jerry Pournelle was until recently. He is a good writer.

re: #6 Ford_Prefect

This also from the link. Amazing.

Another tidbit, this time from Wednesday, July 23, 2008:

Senator Salazar is saying that you can't develop oil shale until 2015. What will he say in 2015? If we don't start now, when do we start? What is the rush to develop it now if we can have it in 2015? Senator Salazar have you ever heard of speculators? In 7 years we could have oil from oil shale according to Salazar (D, Colorado) but apparently it's not worth starting now. Interesting.

Obama seems to have about the same views. If it won't produce this year, it's not worth doing. Very strange view of the world.

CAIR folks on FNC...

re: #28 EC Marm

CAIR folks on FNC...

No thanks, I prefer the Jewish Lobby.

///

re: #20 Adrenalyn

I fear he is right on the depression with inflation

That's going to be kind of tough seeing as how the U.S. isn't even in a recession as of yet.

No, the sky is not falling, despite all the Chicken Little/Obama supporters efforts to talk down the economy for political gain.

/in fact, as of the 2nd quarter, U.S. GDP was still growing

I just punched up a US$/Turkish Lira Currency chart. From September of last year to about a week ago, the Lira had pretty much been gaining in strength against the $. However, in the past week the $ has been gaining. It looks like the situation in Turkey is being followed by currency traders.

re: #31 cutestguy

Dougie Hooper is on Fox right now.

What a vile idiot

Hoopie and Turkey.

Add "Cracker Bob" Beckel and let's re-do that drug movie with a Brokeback Mountain slant.

re: #32 chicagodudewhotrades

I just punched up a US$/Turkish Lira Currency chart. From September of last year to about a week ago, the Lira had pretty much been gaining in strength against the $. However, in the past week the $ has been gaining. It looks like the situation in Turkey is being followed by currency traders.

Is $oro$ involved?

re: #30 Killian Bundy

That's going to be kind of tough seeing as how the U.S. isn't even in a recession as of yet.

No, the sky is not falling, despite all the Chicken Little/Obama supporters efforts to talk down the economy for political gain.

/in fact, as of the 2nd quarter, U.S. GDP was still growing

indeed and agreed
I just see a tax hike as not only killing the growth but reversing it severely

those who can only marginally afford their mortgages are going to say "fuck it, Obama is going to tax the rich, I won't pay and they'll just bail ME out too" and it will get worse

then again, I see two sides/views
"if" her highness princess Mobama gets elected
the media will cheer everything she does
and Americans, being ever optimistic (to naive, even short sighted) will get behind him (sorry to those in the Castro district) and it will turn out fine
she'll serve one term and then we'll get another Reagan

re: #6 Ford_Prefect

From previous thread..

It is his actual radio address (with some commentary).

[Link: www.audible.com...]

I am a member, so it was about $13.00.

From 1975 to 1979 Ronald Reagan gave more than 1,000 daily radio broadcasts, the great majority of which he wrote himself. This program represents the opening of a major archive of pre-presidential material from the Reagan Library and the Hoover Institution Archives. These addresses transform our image of Ronald Reagan, and enhance and revise our understanding of the late 1970s - a time when Reagan held no political office, but was nonetheless mapping out a strategy to transform the economy, end the Cold War, and create a vision of America that would propel him to the presidency.

These radio programs demonstrate that Reagan had carefully considered nearly every issue he would face as president. Reagan's radio broadcasts would change his reputation even among his closest friends and allies. Here, in his own voice, Reagan the thinker is finally fully revealed.

Reagan's radio addresses are introduced by George Schultz and feature additional introductions by Nancy Reagan, Richard V. Allen, Judge William Clark, Michael Deaver, Peter Hannaford, Edwin Meese III and Harry O'Connor.

Here is a picture that you may not see in Obama's campaign:

[Link: atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com...]

"We can't drill our way out of this mess", said the dentist to the pregnant unmarried patient.

Our original battle plan called for invasion through Turkey into the Kurdish regions of Iraq.

That was a HUGE diplomatic failure.

re: #34 OldLineTexan

Of course, there is a possibility that currency traders have thought that the Lira had reached a fair enough value against the $ and it was time for a bit of a pullback. But since the pullback has happened while the Turkish legal action is in the news I think this getting noticed in the trading community.

Speaking of trading stuff, Our fellow lizard Macker is taking the Series 7 stock broker test today, I know all of us want to wish him a hearty 'good luck'

re: #41 experiencedtraveller

That was a HUGE diplomatic failure.

And who was the Secretary of State that was suppose to get that ok. Oh yeah, the same guy that was gonna get the UN to go along with us.

re: #37 Dolphin

Thanks. I am definitely going to be picking that up.

re: #43 Nevergiveup

And who was the Secretary of State that was suppose to get that ok. Oh yeah, the same guy that was gonna get the UN to go along with us.

I politely didn't name him... but the initials Colin Powell come to mind...

re: #40 cutestguy

Same information, different source.

re: #42 chicagodudewhotrades

Speaking of trading stuff, Our fellow lizard Macker is taking the Series 7 stock broker test today, I know all of us want to wish him a hearty 'good luck'

Lizard power be upon him.

O/T and FYI, someone on the previous thread said the Obamessiah did not have a TelePrompTer. He did, you can see it here.

re: #46 lawhawk

Same information, different source.

Only thing missing is.....
THE HORRIBLE RED BINDER!

re: #48 Bob in Breckenridge

O/T and FYI, someone on the previous thread said the Obamessiah did not have a TelePrompTer. He did, you can see it

re: #25 EC Marm

In my opinion the weight given to housing inflation in inflation numbers during the period from 2001-2007 was too light. So now, with the same weight and housing in major decline it is hardly being reflected in the inflation numbers. I'd say a little better than stagnant economy with low to moderate inflation. Depression? No way.

* * *
If Congress forces us to spend trillions to "bail out" Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac--whose officers made millions off homeowners--I will be depressed, and MAD as hell!

Just when we're turning all sorts of corners, all over the world, and ready to drill for energy!

re: #48 Bob in Breckenridge

O/T and FYI, someone on the previous thread said the Obamessiah did not have a TelePrompTer. He did, you can see it here.

Nice one!
You could see on the video that he kept his eyes firmly fixed on that side.

re: #41 experiencedtraveller

That was a HUGE diplomatic failure.

* * *
I have not forgiven Turkey for slowing our progress to enter Iraq from the North. Worthless NATO "partners"--they're taqiyya partners, aiding Saddam Hussein instead of us.

re: #49 jcm

Only thing missing is.....
THE HORRIBLE RED BINDER!

Where is the Horrible Red Binder?

re: #54 The Other Les

Where is the Horrible Red Binder?

Hopefully buried up Arafat's stone-cold ass.

Reagan prepared himself.

Reagan took the Presidency of the United States seriously. He considered it a sacred office.

He was eloquent and charismatic, but he was also a man of substance, principle, humility, and unwavering belief in America, democracy, and capitalism.

Obama is not even a nothing next to Reagan. He's less than nothing.

re: #37 Dolphin

From previous thread..

It is his actual radio address (with some commentary).

[Link:

Well, I guess I can say I am a fan of Pournelle's fiction. He may be right about some things in that essay, and he maybe wrong. In regards to Turkey the Kemalist army was the only stabilizing force. Once that is gone it's going to be going downhill PDQ.

re: #51 alegrias

* * *
If Congress forces us to spend trillions to "bail out" Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac--whose officers made millions off homeowners--I will be depressed, and MAD as hell!

Just when we're turning all sorts of corners, all over the world, and ready to drill for energy!

The only mortgage mess goes back to......
Congress!
For pushing lenders, Fannie and Freddie included to loosen lending requirements to simulate the economy and the building industry.

When I refinanced they tried the hard sell on an ARM (under 4 at the time) I said to my self, I think the interest market is as low as it can go it's only go up. I took the 15 year fixed at 4.8. It wasn't rocket science, just common sense.

The fault lies with Congress for pushing the industry into bad practices, the industry for selling to folks who couldn't afford the product and finally the consumers for thinking they could get something too good to be true.

WHY SHOULD I PAY FOR CONGRESSE'S CHARLIE FOX!

re: #57 BlueCanuck
Hey, FNC is doing a special on y'alls health care system.

re: #54 The Other Les

Where is the Horrible Red Binder?

The Horrible Red Binder ... Opened!

Since this thread is dying on early death.....

Ex-Astronaut: Aliens Are Real and NASA Knows ItHe says extraterrestrials have visited Earth on several occasions — but the alien contact has been repeatedly covered up by governments for six decades.

Mitchell, 77, said during a radio interview in Birmingham, England, that sources at NASA who had had contact with aliens described the beings as "little people who look strange to us."

*sigh*

At least he didn't say he never went to the moon and it was only a sound stage.

re: #56 Tigger2005

I miss Reagan's fantastic sense of humor.

re: #60 jcm

re: #63 pre-Boomer Marine brat

LOL!
Thanks. I wasn't around here back then.

Arafish and the Red Binder....
Good fun.

re: #61 jcm

Since this thread is dying on early death.....

re: #9 pingjockey

I like h9is sci-fi. Hadn't read his blog before. Some of the stuff he says I agree with, some not so much. I am puzzled by his alliance with Israel remarks.

You have to read the position pieces and history there. He's also somewhat unhappy with current Israeli govt. He and Joel Rosenburg have regular debates on the subject in the mail there.

Essentially Jerry says if we want to do Empire, then we need to do Empire, or we need to stay a Republic. This is what many moderate left Dems and moderate right Republicans think. It's summed up by "we can't be the world's policeman, but if you jack with us watch out..."
It's the angle that the Luap Nor crowd tried to triangulate on because it does have a certain popularity in the waning days of the Iraq war, I don't agree with Jerry on that one, there are shades between Republic and Empire.

re: #65 looking closely

A black and white sound stage, no less.

I was in Iran July '69 and listen to the moon landing on BBC shortwave. Saw the first pictures in National Geographic. So I had this combined mental image of the radio broadcast and the sharp clear NG images.

When I first saw the video of Armstrong coming down the ladder I was so disappointed.

re: #2 cutestguy

I used to do business with both Alex and Jerry. Sorry to say this, but Jerry Pournelle is just about the nastiest person I've ever met.

Respectfully gotta dis-agree with the gloom and doom, "put-our-heads- between-our-knees-and-kiss-our-asses-goodbye-being -the-only-real-option" re. Iran.

The botched Iraq occupation should obviously not be repeated in Iran, but then again, it should never be repeated anywhere. You don't get more war-hawkish than me, but if anybody ever mentions starting a war that features the ultra-intellectual concept of "winning the hearts and minds" again I hope they get drummed out office and tarred and feathered.

Getting rid of Iran's nukes will require military attacks, but the concept of staying there and patrolling the streets of Tehran with tanks in an effort to make the people love us is the kind of insane concept only the crem-de-la-crem of State Department uber-intellectuals would be stupid enough to believe in.

You go in, you break their nuclear shit, eliminate their navy, airforce and much of their ground equipment from the air and leave. Any ground force operations should have a real clear mission - go in, destroy stuff that can't be destroyed from the air and then go home. They'll beat the drums about how they drove the American's off but know we'll be back if they ever do the nuke thing again.

And the idea that everybody in Iran would sign up for an invasion of the United States in retaliation for us blowing up their nuclear reactors is a bit of a stretch.

American military doctrine MUST be: go in, wreck their military ability in a matter of DAYS using the amazing military tools we have to do so and get the fuck out. Period. Judge our capabilities by the brilliantly executed 1st and 2nd Iraq war invasions, not the botched occupation which never should have happened in it's present form in the first place.

The alternative is just let the nuclear war come or hope for a mysterious revolution to come from somewhere in Iran itself.

Hate to be the bearer of ugly reality. I know it won't get me elected prom king but, oh well.

That being said, keep in mind there's also one very possible good outcome from this posture:

They could see we're serious about this and dismantle the stuff themselves but ONLY if then knew we were serious. This of course would be the best outcome of all and to say it would never happen assumes the Mullahs don't care about keeping their military intact a wrong assumption to my thinking.

Pournelle, the Sci-Fi guy? Just why should I take his "insights" into world and domestic affairs with any modicum of seriousness? He may have a degree of writing ability, but his analytical conjecture doesn't impress me as bolstered by any special credibility. His stature as an author doesn't lend his speculations any intellectual weight, as far as I can tell -- just another guy's opinion blog.

re: #70 StinkHammer

I agree with your take on Pournelle as geopolitical expert but mainly think StinkHammer is the single most badass handle on LGF.

Wow, Jerry Pournelle of BYTE fame. I used to jump to his section in BYTE magazine back in the early 80s when I was just getting interested in technology. Who would have guessed I would see his name today on LGF, and dealing with Turkey no less! I loved his Chaos Manor, and his stories of fobbing off his old stuff or Roberta etc. He was one of the first real tech bloggers insofar as he was telling his real life experiences with the technology within his everyday life.

re: #69 docremulac

Respectfully gotta dis-agree with the gloom and doom, "put-our-heads- between-our-knees-and-kiss-our-asses-goo dbye-being-the-only-real-option" re. Iran.

The botched Iraq occupation should obviously not be repeated in Iran, but then again, it should never be repeated anywhere. You don't get more war-hawkish than me, but if anybody ever mentions starting a war that features the ultra-intellectual concept of "winning the hearts and minds" again I hope they get drummed out office and tarred and feathered.

Getting rid of Iran's nukes will require military attacks, but the concept of staying there and patrolling the streets of Tehran with tanks in an effort to make the people love us is the kind of insane concept only the crem-de-la-crem of State Department uber-intellectuals would be stupid enough to believe in.

You go in, you break their nuclear shit, eliminate their navy, airforce and much of their ground equipment from the air and leave. Any ground force operations should have a real clear mission - go in, destroy stuff that can't be destroyed from the air and then go home. They'll beat the drums about how they drove the American's off but know we'll be back if they ever do the nuke thing again.

(rest deleted)

I agree. Pournelle completely ignores what would happen if Iran got nukes. We would lose our remaining allies in the MidEast except for Israel, because they'd see our inaction as weakness, and support Iran over the US. And if Iran had nukes, they'd use them against us and against Israel, precipitating a nuclear war.

The best solution is what you say - get in, destroy their military, their nuclear sites, and get out. Say quite clearly we will do it again if they try to rebuild. I'd also say take out the mullahs; the rest of the Iranians would probably form a better government afterwards.

re: #70 StinkHammer

Pournelle, the Sci-Fi guy? Just why should I take his "insights" into world and domestic affairs with any modicum of seriousness? He may have a degree of writing ability, but his analytical conjecture doesn't impress me as bolstered by any special credibility. His stature as an author doesn't lend his speculations any intellectual weight, as far as I can tell -- just another guy's opinion blog.

I met Pournelle at a science fiction convention in college, around 30 years ago, and he impressed me as someone who thought he knew more than he did.
If anyone else meets him, back then, he liked Ouzo.

re: #71 docremulac

I agree with your take on Pournelle as geopolitical expert but mainly think StinkHammer is the single most badass handle on LGF.

Your check is in the mail.

I've enjoyed the books he wrote with Niven and he has my sympathies for his medical conditions, but I see no particular insight here and some slightly snarky comments about Israel.

He states "and the US is sliding into a Depression with Inflation" like its akin to the sun rising in the east.

He drops the N-word. That's "neocon".

His website looks like something from 1997.

He's a sci-fi writer.

Would someone please explain to me why I should take this guy seriously?

re: #4 Killian Bundy

Sorry, lost me right there.

/taking the rest with a grain of bull[expletive deleted]

Me too.

GNP for Q2 just out: +2.2%. Revised up from previous estimate.

.

I've been to Turkey a few times and I believe Mr. Pournelle is underestimating the national pride and the dedication of the army and the secularists over there. He is spot on about the Kurds, and that had me concerned when the mainstream media was playing up our Kurdish "allies" (of convenience). They are viewed much the same way that Great Britain viewed the IRA. They may actually have had or have a legitimate complaint but their terrorist ways limit negotiations.
However, I believe the Turkish Army is constitutionally bound to maintain a secular government. If it looks like the elected government is going too far, there will be coup. The generals will take over.
Also, when I was over there, we were conducting joint Navy operations with Turkey and Israel. This was not publicized at the time and it was quite some time ago.

re: #70 StinkHammer

Okay. How about (Wikipedia-ing):

1. Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy.
2. Pournelle influenced Reagan's embrace of SDI ('Star Wars').
3. He is also known for the Pournelle chart, a 2-dimensional coordinate system used to distinguish political ideologies.
4. He wrote "The Strategy of Technology" with Stephan T. Possony. This book was required reading in the U.S. service academies during the latter half of the Cold War.

On the other hand, he has argued that some aspects Intelligent Design theory can be tested (falsified), citing the work of Sir Fred Hoyle.

I am depressed

re: #70 StinkHammer

Pournelle, the Sci-Fi guy? Just why should I take his "insights" into world and domestic affairs with any modicum of seriousness? He may have a degree of writing ability, but his analytical conjecture doesn't impress me as bolstered by any special credibility. H

Really? Do a little reading before you say things like this.

Jerry Pournelle

re: #80 jenesais

Sorry, I see that you beat me to the wiki reference.

Jerry Pournelle is a very impressive guy. And yes, from what I've heard, he can be abrasive in person. That doesn't detract from his accomplishments.

re: #34 OldLineTexan

I just punched up a US$/Turkish Lira Currency chart.

My first trip to Turkey, in 1989, saw the Turkish Lira at about 750 = $1.00USD. In 1995, it was around 2,000,000 TL = $1.00USD My last trip there, in 1998, the TL was nearly five million to the US Dollar. They devalued their currency in 1998, IIRC, and all Turkish money from that time, back, is worthless.

I'm not terribly impressed with Jerry Pournelle.

re: #56 Tigger2005

Reagan took the Presidency of the United States seriously. He considered it a sacred office.

He was eloquent and charismatic, but he was also a man of substance, principle, humility, and unwavering belief in America, democracy, and capitalism.

Mister Reagan, I miss you!

re: #80 jenesais

Okay. How about (Wikipedia-ing):

1. Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy.
2. Pournelle influenced Reagan's embrace of SDI ('Star Wars').
3. He is also known for the Pournelle chart, a 2-dimensional coordinate system used to distinguish political ideologies.
4. He wrote "The Strategy of Technology" with Stephan T. Possony. This book was required reading in the U.S. service academies during the latter half of the Cold War.

His cited accomplishments notwithstanding, I'm not obliged to agree with tripe such as "the US is sliding into a Depression," which is demonstrably false. Milton Friedman, he ain't.

On the other hand, he has argued that some aspects of Intelligent Design theory can be tested (falsified), citing the work of Sir Fred Hoyle.

Which in itself makes me question a helluva lotta otherwise intellectual posturing I'm supposed to take as serious analysis from the guy, whatever his credentials.

I mean, I may also admire Jeff Baxter as a musician, but that doesn't mean I can't question any of his personal theories about, say, sociological phenomena just because he's done some braniac work with missile defense initiatives.

re: #87 StinkHammer

I may also admire

Greek intransigence on Cyprus, and a decided lack of support for the only workable diplomatic solution to the divided island, and continued foot-dragging by the EU on Turkey is not strengthening the secularist's hand. If Turkey should tip into an islamist state, Europe can thank themselves for that.

IMO, it just does'nt look good. Turkey has yet to see secularist promises come to fruition, after what? Eighty something years?

Some aspects of ID can be falsified. One can, for instance, decide whether or not a wool-bearing sheep has developed and spread against the sheep's ecological niche up to then. If so, the sheep has taken another niche dependent on "something" else. In the sheep's case, this niche was to serve Chalcolithic Age humans as a textile source.

If ID proponents could find an example of an animal which has developed radically against its original nature, and not for its own sake but for the sake of some other species, I'd accept this as evidence.

Note that gaps in the fossil record which just can't quite be explained would NOT count as evidence. The fossils have to consistently show a trend toward service of this intelligent designer. I don't see anything like that until 6000 BC or so, with domesticated fowl, dogs and livestock. But I'm willing to entertain contrary evidence!

re: #87 StinkHammer

Funny that you should mention Milton Friedman. Here's a post Pournelle wrote on November 16, 2006:

Milton Friedman, RIP
I only met him once or twice, but I am pleased to call his son David my friend. I do not think anyone will have a problem finding his biography. The nation owes him.

Pournelle also frequently says things like this (December 13, 2006):
But Milton Friedman was right: You can't have both open immigration and a welfare state. The tension between the two is inescapable.

Pournelle may be wrong at times, or right; he is always intellectually honest.

Sorry Charles, he lost me at "[Saddam] had a reasonable claim to Kuwait". Also, his anti-Israel bias is obvious. An easy ding down.

I'm very sorry. People who write sci-fi and for computer magazines are usually constitutionally incompetent when it comes to politics.

re: #88 StinkHammer

Or an even better example: Noam Chomsky. Despite his revolutionary accomplishments as a linguist, I find his political conclusions pure horseshit. Whatever penetrating genius his scientific background exemplifies, his socio-political theories are unaffected by it.

Pournelle may indeed have some credentials, but that doesn't mean he always knows what the hell he's talking about.

Scientists and methematicians are also usually completely incompetent on politics.

Chomsky, on the other hand, is just a moonbat. Bad genes from inbreeding in the shtetl.

I noticed that Jerry Pournelle had a beef with Israel back in the days when Byte was in print.

In his current blog, he opines, "when we lost those Marines in the barracks explosion we abandoned Lebanon to its fate".

"barracks explosion"? Did the barracks blow up due to a gas leak?

The US marine barracks were destroyed in a truck bomb attack by islamic jihad.

1983 Beirut barracks bombing
[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]

241 American servicemen, 58 French servicemen, 6 civilians, 2 suicide bombers died.

I don't know why Pournelle would leave out relevant facts.

Later in his blog, "To shore up his [Saddams] positions in the Middle East he became more and more anti-Israel."

At least Pournelle acknowledges that being anti-Israel is a way to deflect criticism of ones policies at home.

w/r/t Jerry Pournelle ... while I do admire his writing ability and he does do
some interesting posting at Chaos Manor, he has always been anti-Israel.
He seems to believe that there is some sort of Jewish Lobby that controls
or distorts American foreign policy.

Mostly, though, he is upset with the way he feels that Israel treated Palestinian
Christians. He can not seem to get his head around the fact that they too, object
to the concept of a Jewish state. (Perhaps it is because they are Arabs first and
Christians second.)

In any case he ranges from mildly to passionately anti-Israel depending on,
I imagine, the latest 'news' he has heard from the drive-by media or NPR.

JP is awesome.

I just returned from the Mediterranean and spent a couple of days in Istanbul. One of our tour guides was a middle-aged female university lecturer and I asked her about Erdogan. She was very pessimistic about the situation there and, when I asked her if she thought the military would step in to prevent Islamization, she flatly said no, that it too was being compromised. Then she added that, should it go that way, she was prepared to fight to keep secularism. Based on this, I can't help but think that there is some real possibility of civil war, if things continue. I didn't see alot of women with headscarves and even fewer in full dress, but that could be because we were in tourist areas, even if they included the famous mosques. We also visited Kusadasi, which seemed even less Islamic, but I was bothered by the fact that we saw mostly men and very few ladies, so where are they being hidden? As Mark Steyn and this article has indicated, the split is between western Turkey and urban areas and the breeding and Islamist east. If I can get this, where the hell is Foggy Bottom?

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