Charles said it.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Obamastan next stop!

President Obama.

Yikes!

Gallup has been way off the rest for months

Here's the RCP Average nobody else is that far off. But, I am sure it will be spun like crazy now. Most of these polls have McCain gaining, not slipping

How McCain could have won the election last night:

Promise the American people that if he is elected, he will appoint Rudy Giulliani as Attorney General and his first order of business will be to investigate, indict and prosecute all those involved in any wrong doing in the sub-prime mortgage debacle, from Wall Street, to K Street to Main Street.

HT: Reader Gary at The Anchoress

anybody who decided their candidate based on that debate doesn't deserve to vote...

Polls are great predictors, too.

Saw a CNN poll at lunchtime saying that Obama won the debate, 70 to 30.

Make it up by 1000. He won, it's over. He's King of the World. etc. /MSM mass induced hysteria

The debate was sooooo dull everybody skipped and took the MSM's word for it.

"Hello, Mr. McCain? You left a request for an eleventh-hour wake-up call. It's time."

At some point though, folks, we have to realize that all of these polls are not necessarily wrong...

As for me, I'm voting McCain and I have never been polled...

It is astounding to me that a Presiential Election between as well-known war hero and long time Senator could lose to a man with little experience, bad connections and no plan...

Of course, all the polls had John Kerry looking like he would win around this time four years ago.

Sorry- but I think it's a crock of shit. I'll wait for Zogby.

re: #14 Ringo the Gringo

Of course, all the polls had John Kerry looking like he would win around this time four years ago.

But what was his 'largest lead'? 6 points?

re: #16 tfc3rid

But what was his 'largest lead'? 6 points?

I don't remember.

As a Lions fan I know what it means to root for a loser
.
I will continue to support McCain Palin to the end and hope for a miracle

A lot of people are mad and they want Obama to come in and tax the sh*t out of those rich bastards.

And they don't think any farther than that.

/I know

Obama 47%, McCain 45%

[Link: www.zogby.com...]

Well, if the polls are horse hockey, then so what?

Better numbers for Obama like this may lull the Dems into a false sense of security... and motivate McCain voters to get out the vote.

re: #13 tfc3rid

It is astounding to me that a Presiential Election between as well-known war hero and long time Senator could lose to a man with little experience, bad connections and no plan...

That's because you are still voting for President. Many people are voting for National Therapist and Nanny. Most patient's don't like the Dr. Phil approach.

If Obama wins, I suspect quite a bit of buyers remorse to follow.

Ok lets look at this.

Zogby Obama +2
Hotline Obama +1
Rassmussen Obama +6
Battleground Obama +4

Gallup Obama +11

Come on

This does not actually include data from AFTER the debate, does it?

Keep it up, Gallup. You're motivating republicans and making 0bamabots feel comfortable enough they might stay home and not work to win this.

re: #20 Sharmuta

Obama 47%, McCain 45%

[Link: www.zogby.com...]

Same as yesterday.

I'm gonna go ahead and call this gallup poll a fluke.

When the market collapsed, so did McCain's chances.

re: #7 zach (the jew) tobias

That was not a debate, it was a chance for the candidates to recycle the same crap they say on campaign stops. The townhall meeting format was not followed. Did Tom Brokaw pick the questions? I wanted a "Pony Tail guy" moment...instead, we got straight forward stuff......boring and more to Obama's advantage. McCain needs to keep hammering Obama and get his base motivated to vote. Offering "free stuff" like Obama does will not help his cause. A liberal will not switch side because of that, but a conservative will wince and think about not even voting if you say that crap enough. If McCain wants to win, he needs to motivate his base to vote: the conservatives. So far, he has not. Only Palin has done that, and that is not enough.

re: #20 Sharmuta

Obama 47%, McCain 45%

[Link:

re: #30 MandyManners

Zogby's of likely voters. Gallup's of registered voters.

registered by ACORN

Charles, is this reverse psychology, or are you really in the dumper over this?

For what it is worth, this poll does not take last night's debate into account:

"Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days."

re: #28 Peacekeeper

I agree. And if you watch the news you would think the MSM is trying to talk us into a recession.

re: #9 Ward Cleaver

Yeah, but that was such a bogus "poll" -- it's really, really fraudulent...note the disclaimer -- "this is not a scientific poll" -- whenever you read that, you can immediately discount whatever the alleged "poll" tells you.

re: #6 jill e

How McCain could have won the election last night:

Promise the American people that if he is elected, he will appoint Rudy Giulliani as Attorney General and his first order of business will be to investigate, indict and prosecute all those involved in any wrong doing in the sub-prime mortgage debacle, from Wall Street, to K Street to Main Street.

HT: Reader Gary at The Anchoress

This is a pretty good idea. Only problem I see is that Giuliani probably would not do it. He is making a lot of money and not working nearly as hard as he would have to as Attorney General.

October 14-16 Gallup Poll in 2004... Kerry 52, Bush 44...

re: #23 Ringo the Gringo

If Obama wins, I suspect quite a bit of buyers remorse to follow.

A lot of, "WTF did we do?"

re: #32 Ward Cleaver

Charles, is this reverse psychology, or are you really in the dumper over this?

I think he's just posting the info. Passing it along.

re: #35 J.S.

Yeah, but that was such a bogus "poll" -- it's really, really fraudulent...note the disclaimer -- "this is not a scientific poll" -- whenever you read that, you can immediately discount whatever the alleged "poll" tells you.

It just illustrates how useless polls are.

re: #15 Sharmuta

Zogby as a two point difference with a +/- of 2.3....it's a tie. That 11 points from Gallup is crap and should be tossed out of the average. If RCP did that, the actual spread would be 4.4, not the 5.1 they have listed. This race is not over. Polls are not the be all and end all.

Who here has been polled? Not me.

The next few days will show if McCain connected on the economy

My money says he has

I think more people are going to vote for McCain but they are afraid to say it out loud. It's not cool.

Bears repeating--America has had the knack for having the right person at the right time, in any given situation. Even a cursory look through our history will bear this out. The stumbles (Carter) merely point out the correct path to take.

I can see no reason this election should defy that tradition.

re: #37 tfc3rid

Thanks for the context.

Has there ever been a poll that was correct? Seriously.

re: #30 MandyManners

Zogby's of likely voters. Gallup's of registered voters.

Hi Mandy. Hey, why'd you 86 your avatar?

re: #9 Ward Cleaver

Saw a CNN poll at lunchtime saying that Obama won the debate, 70 to 30.

A CNN poll is about as meaningful as an LGF poll. CNN and LGF are equally partisan.

I'm not going to wait for Zogby, Rasmussen, or Gallup to figure out their polls.

I'll wait to see what the only poll that matters says on the evening of November 4 - as our votes get tallied (and hopefully counted correctly). I wont bother watching the exit polls either - except to say that everyone should be sure to vote and don't take anything for granted.

All these polls have something that the actual general elections do not - bias and sample size and all kinds of other factors included in skewing results. Gallup is an outlier here compared to the RCP averages; it could be the result of anything from who they asked, when in the past two days they called, etc., but it may not actually be wrong. They quite possibly got to the results that they wanted.

re: #36 JustMyView

This is a pretty good idea. Only problem I see is that Giuliani probably would not do it. He is making a lot of money and not working nearly as hard as he would have to as Attorney General.

I think he'd be proud to serve this country. You severely misunderstand our side if you think we're just after money and dismiss that we want to keep America great, strong and free.

re: #42 jill e

Who here has been polled? Not me.

I do not participate in polls. I did once or twice--and found that the questions were phrased in ways that did not permit of a coherent or honest answer. Anyone who calls me trying to elicit polling information gets hung up on. And any party operative who calls me to ask how or for whom I'm voting--as some have--gets a lecture on the meaning of the term "secret ballot."

re: #47 spypeach

Has there ever been a poll that was correct? Seriously.

Zogby.

re: #42 jill e

Who here has been polled? Not me.

I haven't gotten a single call from a pollster or a campaign.

re: #6 jill e

How McCain could have won the election last night:

Promise the American people that if he is elected, he will appoint Rudy Giulliani as Attorney General and his first order of business will be to investigate, indict and prosecute all those involved in any wrong doing in the sub-prime mortgage debacle, from Wall Street, to K Street to Main Street.

HT: Reader Gary at The Anchoress

Not bad. Then Rudy can slap ACORN with RICO. He knows a thing or two about that.

re: #37 tfc3rid

exactly, Gallup should gallop off in the sunset.....either that, or start asking a few more Republicans these questions

I can't find any breakdown of how many declared democrats vs. republicans are included in Gallup. They break it down too much between liberal, moderate, and independents. So I can't tell how they did their poll.

Grr.

re: #51 Sharmuta

I think he'd be proud to serve this country. You severely misunderstand our side if you think we're just after money and dismiss that we want to keep America great, strong and free.

I think Giuliani would take the helm as AG... I recall in reading his book 'Leadership' that he did want that job when he was AG here in the NY District... Work and $$ be damned...

re: #32 Ward Cleaver

Charles, is this reverse psychology, or are you really in the dumper over this?

It's just news, that's all.

But McCain didn't do a very good job last night, in my opinion, and I can't lie about it.

Do I still want him to beat Barack Obama? You betcha. But he has to want it too.

re: #28 Peacekeeper

That runs counter to what those same polls suggest as a tightening of the race since McCain tried to suspend the campaign for the first debate. Other factors - unleashing Palin instead of running away from the issues.

re: #42 jill e

I was polled by somebody two days ago, but they never said who it was...

re: #14 Ringo the Gringo

Of course, all the polls had John Kerry looking like he would win around this time four years ago.

Actually, no Bush led by a small margin almost all the way through October and won by about 2.5%.

re: #50 lawhawk

I'm not going to wait for Zogby, Rasmussen, or Gallup to figure out their polls.

I'll wait to see what the only poll that matters says on the evening of November 4 - as our votes get tallied (and hopefully counted correctly). I wont bother watching the exit polls either - except to say that everyone should be sure to vote and don't take anything for granted.

All these polls have something that the actual general elections do not - bias and sample size and all kinds of other factors included in skewing results. Gallup is an outlier here compared to the RCP averages; it could be the result of anything from who they asked, when in the past two days they called, etc., but it may not actually be wrong. They quite possibly got to the results that they wanted.

Exactly. A sample of 1000 people is a lot less reliable than 110 million people.

re: #57 vxbush

Would that help? I, for example, am a registered Democrat.

re: #56 Desert Dog

exactly, Gallup should gallop off in the sunset.....either that, or start asking a few more Republicans these questions

They will say 'we cannot find any'...

At least McCain has a sense of humor.

re: #48 Ward Cleaver

Hi Mandy. Hey, why'd you 86 your avatar?

It's still there!

Breaking news: Obama still holds 0% support in Kragaristan, Glorious Leader plans to cut all foreign aid from Kragaristan to US in the event of Obama presidency.

re: #64 Last Mohican

Would that help? I, for example, am a registered Democrat.

It would tell me if they're polling 80% democrats and 18% republicans, because that doesn't match the breakdown of the nation between the two.

re: #54 Ward Cleaver

I haven't gotten a single call from a pollster or a campaign.

I have. Depending on who calls, I give em' the answers for the other guy. Don't listen to polls. People like me take the time to fuck them up.

McCain in a landslide. I have never know myself to be wrong.........ever.
(If you don't count my predictions for the Cubs in '69, '84, '98, '03, and '07, '08)

re: #42 jill e

Who here has been polled? Not me.

Only time in years was twice on the night of Gov. Palin's debate. One of the pollsters was my state's Democratic party. They did not like my answers to them, an understatement.

re: #13 tfc3rid

At some point though, folks, we have to realize that all of these polls are not necessarily wrong...

As for me, I'm voting McCain and I have never been polled...

It is astounding to me that a Presiential Election between as well-known war hero and long time Senator could lose to a man with little experience, bad connections and no plan...

Why not? Look at the polls from the last few elections? Look at the stories being spun all the way up to the day of the election. For example.

I'm not merely being pedantic and indulging in wishful thinking or pie in the sky dreaming. I seriously believe that McCain/Palin will win and by a reasonable margin. I think people are not being entirely honest when being polled and when push comes to shove they will, as in my case "pull the lever" for the best of two candidates or in many cases vote for the lesser of two evils. But vote for McCain/Palin they will.

re: #59 Charles

It's just news, that's all.

But McCain didn't do a very good job last night, in my opinion, and I can't lie about it.

Do I still want him to beat Barack Obama? You betcha. But he has to want it too.

We may to have to drag him, kicking and screaming, into the White House.

re: #15 Sharmuta

Sorry- but I think it's a crock of shit. I'll wait for Zogby.

Sincere question. What is it that makes you think Zogby is a more reliable pollster? Is there some kind of record you can point to? Again, serious question.

re: #54 Ward Cleaver

I haven't gotten a single call from a pollster or a campaign.

I get called all the time for some reason. Twice so far for presidential polls and once for a local candidate. The two presidential polls were fairly above-board, but the local one was an especially loathsome push-poll. For example: if I knew Candidate X ate babies, would I be more or less likely to vote for her?

re: #73 Outrider

I pray you are correct...

re: #54 Ward Cleaver

I haven't gotten a single call from a pollster or a campaign.

I got polled a few weeks back. All I got asked was about environmental issues and how they affected my views on the campaign.

O/T- Google fights drunken emailing

SEATTLE (AP)— Here's the scenario: It's Friday night, and what began as an innocent happy-hour margarita morphed into a few pitchers. After all, those tacos were salty.
Bidding friends adieu, you jump in a cab, head home and decide a quick e-mail check is in order. And there it is: a message from your ex. Or your boss. Or that friend you're secretly mad at.
If you're the kind of person who types tipsy and regrets it in the morning, Google's Mail Goggles, a new test-phase feature in the free Gmail service, might save you some angst.
The Goggles can kick in late at night on weekends. The feature requires you to solve a few easy math problems in short order before hitting “send.” If your logical thinking skills are intact, Google is betting you're sober enough to work out the repercussions of sending that screed you just drafted.
And if you can't multiply two times five, you'll probably thank Google in the morning.
To activate Goggles, Gmail users should click the Settings link at the top of a Gmail page, then go to the Labs section.
There's no shame in admitting that sometimes you need a little extra help. Gmail engineer Jon Perlow designed Goggles with his own weaknesses in mind.
“Sometimes I send messages I shouldn't send. Like the time I told that girl I had a crush on her over text message. Or the time I sent that late night e-mail to my ex-girlfriend that we should get back together,” he wrote when announcing Mail Goggles on a company blog.
The name is derived from the slang term “beer goggles,” or the curious effect of alcohol on one's ability to see the true nature of that “cutie” at the other end of the bar.
But you can set up Mail Goggles to protect you from yourself at other emotionally vulnerable times - before your morning coffee, for example, or right after Grey's Anatomy.

Forget the polls. The pollsters will only publish what they want you to see.

re: #76 doppelganglander

the local one was an especially loathsome push-poll. For example: if I knew Candidate X ate babies, would I be more or less likely to vote for her?

Were the babies regular or extra-crispy? That makes a difference, you know.

re: #57 vxbush

I can't find any breakdown of how many declared democrats vs. republicans are included in Gallup. They break it down too much between liberal, moderate, and independents. So I can't tell how they did their poll.

Grr.

That's the whole idea.

re: #29 Desert Dog

That was not a debate, it was a chance for the candidates to recycle the same crap they say on campaign stops. The townhall meeting format was not followed. Did Tom Brokaw pick the questions? I wanted a "Pony Tail guy" moment...instead, we got straight forward stuff......boring and more to Obama's advantage. McCain needs to keep hammering Obama and get his base motivated to vote. Offering "free stuff" like Obama does will not help his cause. A liberal will not switch side because of that, but a conservative will wince and think about not even voting if you say that crap enough. If McCain wants to win, he needs to motivate his base to vote: the conservatives. So far, he has not. Only Palin has done that, and that is not enough.

I think Obama and his beliefs will motivate the conservative base to vote.

re: #62 JustMyView
Not according to the comment at #37 - Gallup had Kerry way up in the polls.
And what to make of the difference between Zogby and Gallup, other than Z polls likely voters and Gallup polls registered voters?

On mortgage bail outs and McCain's $300 billion last night.

Of Some Note:

One of the things tfk does for $ is guide lines for banks and mortgage lenders on "short sales" and "modifications of loans".

1. Do you want the cost of the ownership, the atty and court fees to foreclose, the cost in maintenance, the cost of ins and taxes, the risk of
more price decline, the risk of the opportunity lost on the money you have in the deal while you sell it, the real estate sales fee or management fee, on and on, plumbing breaks, roof leaks, mowing, on and on.

2. Do you want this borrower in the home, is he keeping it up, what is the current appraisal, the market in the area, age, foundation, yard, fence, all that.

3. Putting some of the principle on a balloon payment at the end of the loan together with interest on the for a time forgiven principle.

4. Just reduce the bal. get your money 90% of it and go down the road, as in the loan is 4 years old and the loan has paid $'s of dollars in int erst in that time.

5. Go buy the second at a discount, roll it into your first.

6. If your second buy the first, at a discount.

7. Go to his credit card companies the borrower and his wife have
get them to sell you the loans at a 50% discount, put that on the end of the note, do not raise the P & I, then the borrow can make the payments due to the high payments on the credit cards screwing their cash flow.

8. Be smart, do not panic.

like that

re: #67 MandyManners

It's still there!

That's weird. All I see is a vertical gray line (if I click on that, I can see the avatar, in your profile information. I see other peoples' avatars. What's up with that, Charles? Firefox 3.0.3.

Actually, this Gallup tracking poll does not yet incorporate any post-debate interviews (they all occurred before the debate last night). As it is a 3-day tracking poll, it will be an approximately 1/3 post-debate sample in tomorrow's poll, and Sat. for a full post-debate sample. Though, at the least, this tracking poll suggests that the Ayers based attacks aren't impacting negatively on Obama as of yet (Rasmussen went down a bit for Obama, Gallup went up, so on balance we might estimate these attacks have not had a real impact one way or another).

re: #75 JustMyView

Sincere question. What is it that makes you think Zogby is a more reliable pollster? Is there some kind of record you can point to? Again, serious question.

Zogby polls likely voters.

For reasons I cannot quite figure out (but could guess), it looks as if Obama is going to be the next POTUS.

I can only hope that this is not true, but if it is, that he is able to do everything he claims to be able to do per foreign policy, and isn't able to succeed in any of his domestic desires.

It is amazing however that after whining about how badly the Government has messed up the economy, that Obama can then suggest that it take over Education, Medical Care, Insurance, and tackle social security.

re: #20 Sharmuta

Obama 47%, McCain 45%

[Link: www.zogby.com...]

From that link:
" but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%."

This means, clear, plain and simple, that all eforst must go on changing the minds of independent voters - as many have said already on the thread downstairs.

I think a lot of people will change their minds at the polling place. I got to believe there will be a lot of people that will compare the candidates and have an epiphany that 0bama is not the person qualified for the presidency.

re: #66 jill e

With the middle name of Sidney, you'd have to.

:)

Obama is trending downward in all of the other tracking polls.

Gallup is a Registered Voter poll while the others work off of Likely Voter models. Gallup shows sentiment swings, and sentiment (as we all know) is in Obama's corner.

I don't think McCain is done. I think that he may have done better last night than people assume because he may have made inroads with the swing voters. We will have to see.

Part of the media/Obama effort is to drive McCain supporters into a depressed state where they just don't vote. But as the numbers swing and things tighten, you will see sentiment follow.

Obama may have peaked and may have peaked early.

re: #81 buzzsawmonkey

Were the babies regular or extra-crispy? That makes a difference, you know.

Was there a dipping sauce available? If so, what kind?

At a recent family picnic, the election came up. about 10 of my relatives Bush-bashing Kerry-lovers all, said they were voting McCain. Their reasons:

-he's just not ready
-His questionable associates

Even Nobama's McCain as Bush tactic didn't seem to work with this crowd
The see McCain as a RINO, or at least a moderate

re: #25 MrSnuggles

This does not actually include data from AFTER the debate, does it?

No, it's a daily poll based on a three-day moving average. The site says that almost all interviews for the three days worth of data reported today were collected before the debate.

re: #27 astronmr20

Same as yesterday.

I'm gonna go ahead and call this gallup poll a fluke. fraud

Fixed.

Mark Steyn tries to buck up the troops (from the Corner):

Keep your sunny side up [Mark Steyn]

Republicans have cause to be disappointed by last night: As everyone says, Obama wins by not losing. He looks more and more as if he's already the president, while McCain prowling the stage seeking to "connect" looks more and more like Yosemite Sam after the dynamite* failed to go off.

Nevertheless.

Before everyone succumbs to a terminal case of inevitabilititis, it's worth remembering we've been here before. In the last months of the primary campaign, the press kept assuring Hillary fans that Obama's victory was inevitable and the shriller the media Obamaboppers got, the more bluecollar Dems sat on their hands. In the end all the King's horses and all the King's men had to drag the guy across the finish line. You couldn't replay his spectacular victory in slow-motion because it was already slower than any slo-mo technology ever invented.

So we already know there's a huge disconnect between the unstoppable Messianic force promoted by the media and the cooler appraisal by actual voters. What's happened since primary season? The Iraq surge (McCain's unique selling point) is a victim of its own success and has dwindled away to an irrelevant footnote, and the front pages are full of a supposed economic catastrophe which the crude rules of politics suggest any fool should be able to hang on the incumbent.

Yet Obama still can't open up a solid lead. After all, why would record numbers of viewers watch the vice-presidential debate if the election's already over?

Meanwhile, the supposedly damaged Republican brand is proving suprisingly resilient. I see one of the two New Hampshire seats that flipped blue in '06 may return to the red fold next month. Where's the blowout?

(*A lot of the dynamite is well past its sell-by date: Two references last night to Ronald Reagan negotiating with Tip O'Neill. No one remembers who Tip O'Neill is. McCain might as well have been evoking misty watercolor mem'ries of Talleyrand at the Congress of Vienna. Obama, by contrast, is all future - which is understandable, given his past.)

[UPDATE: A reader responds:

Listen, Mark, sunny side up is fine but this one is over easy.]

re: #42 jill e

Who here has been polled? Not me.

Back again .. hey I was going to ask the same question. I have never ever been polled politically so what are the odds of someone of my political position being polled as well? I have no faith in these polls and the uncertainty makes up nearly the difference in many of them. Plus as some have pointed out here these polls can be statistically rigged one way or another, and knowing how the MSM is so in the tank for the O they surely must be rigged in his favor. My neighbor cheered me up a bit the other day, he thinks these polls will swing back in McCain's favor right before the election because these biased pollsters will have to try and gain back some semblance of credibility before the actual numbers come out in the election.

re: #88 MandyManners

Zogby polls likely voters.

And he was the only one that got it right in '04.

re: #88 MandyManners

Zogby polls likely voters.

So they ask people how likely they are to vote, then throw out the ones that say, "not likely"?

re: #75 JustMyView

Sincere question. What is it that makes you think Zogby is a more reliable pollster? Is there some kind of record you can point to? Again, serious question.

The proof is in the pudding.

re: #86 Ward Cleaver

I can see it.

So, these voters actually believe the Obama is going to save our economy with higher taxes and bigger government? Astounding!