Sen. McCain will win

my brain hurts now.

Statistics are not science, and political polls are nothing but necromancy.

The lumpy ball between my two ears tells me McCain will win.

Heh. He said blue balls.

This article is similar, but easier to understand

Let's hear it for the over counting of Blue Balls!

"Iowahawk is some kinda damn genius"

The problems with polls these day is they start out with the answer and then go out and get the data, instead of the other way around. I agree with Iowahawk, they should play with their own balls until Nov. 4th and leave us alone.

Like my dad always says:

"Figure lie and liers figure."

Heh

Sorry to post OT so soon, but have to post & run. Just checked my email and this Obama/Wright ad is out. The group, National Republican Trust, is seeking donations to get it on the air as much as possible. Why did they wait so long?

Iowahawk,

what you said

/pretty entertaining, you have a beautiful mind

re: #6 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

This article is similar, but easier to understand

Athens & Jerusalem also had a post explaining this today, in terms even my non-mathematician self could follow.

I sent I-Hawks's Obamatots vid to like 50 people. You shoulda seen the reaction I got. God Bless Iowahawk.

Best description of political polling techniques I've ever read, and why they are unreliable. Liked the balls talking to one another, thereby altering the universe.

Given that the sewer rats that comprise the MSM (I stopped calling them whores cause whores have more integrity than the MSM) are the ones that "report" on and interpret these polls, and the MSM are intent on getting a Marxist, a liar and a friend or terrorists elected President, I don't believe these polls.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Mark Twain? Benjamin Disraeli?

True back then and just as true today.

re: #11 ciaospirit

Sorry to post OT so soon, but have to post & run. Just checked my email and this Obama/Wright ad is out. The group, National Republican Trust, is seeking donations to get it on the air as much as possible. Why did they wait so long?

They were hoping that the McCain campaign would pick up the issue. I'm planning to donate tonight. I can't spare much, but I'll do what I can.

re: #11 ciaospirit

Sorry to post OT so soon, but have to post & run. Just checked my email and this Obama/Wright ad is out. The group, National Republican Trust, is seeking donations to get it on the air as much as possible. Why did they wait so long?

I hope McCain does not come out and condemn these guys like he did the NC RNC.

You gotta love it.
All of those ''What if's" apply in election polls.
Thanks, Iowahawk!

LOL nice

Lightworker....
Barack Obama's lightning strike in thunderstorm

re: #19 NC State of Mind

I hope McCain does not come out and condemn these guys like he did the NC RNC.

Yeah, that was a brilliant piece of campaigning wasn't it?

re: #18 Dark_Falcon

Me too.

re: #23 Nevergiveup

Yeah, that was a brilliant piece of campaigning wasn't it?

He was just doing what he thought was right. Weird, I know. We don't agree, and we're also unfamiliar with someone doing something that doesn't in some way translate to political maneuvering. But there you are.

Heh, blueballs.

re: #11 ciaospirit

Sorry to post OT so soon, but have to post & run. Just checked my email and this Obama/Wright ad is out. The group, National Republican Trust, is seeking donations to get it on the air as much as possible. Why did they wait so long?

Last 7 days are probably the most important, most people won't remember what they read or watched 2, 3, or 4 weeks ago..

Great strategy I think..

Two people were arrested Monday afternoon after an altercation led to five Republican campaign workers being sprayed with Mace at their headquarters in Galax. Galax Police Chief Rick Clark said officers were dispatched shortly before 1 p.m. to the Galax Republican headquarters on East Grayson Street when a caller reported someone had sprayed office workers with Mace. Responding officers arrested Daniel Cason Meinecke, 29, and Cara Annis Hindman, 26, both of Galax.

[Link: www.galaxgazette.com...]
Sheesh!

A cheering anecdote - OT - but this morning while we were making calls at McCain/Palin HQ , a woman burst into the lobby, quite worked up. Several people came out to greet her, and she said "I'm a Democrat, I've been a Democrat all my life, but I just want you to know that I've just voted for John McCain and Sarah Palin this morning" (we have early voting in Fla) and I want you to know that when this is all over I'm changing my registration to Republican; I can't believe what is going on, and what they're trying to put over on us. I won't even watch CBS any more, I can't stand it. I just came in to tell you to keep working; I'm going to talk to as many people as I can."

re: #28 mean Gene

Notice that the people they assaulted were in their 70's.
Punks.
I cannot believe this is happening in Galax, Va.

I hate math, but gee, I like that Iowahawk.

re: #13 arethusa

Athens & Jerusalem also had a post explaining this today, in terms even my non-mathematician self could follow.

No World Series tonight. Is this the night of The One™'s propaganda BS?

re: #32 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

No World Series tonight. Is this the night of The One™'s propaganda BS?

I thought it was scheduled for tomorrow. Hopefully all the Nielsen homes are Republican :)

With tha race being so close and the Gazzillions of dollars the messiah spent so far...

We have a GREAT chance to win it amigo(a)s.

Joe The Plumber was the best thing that happened to McCain, now we have the follow ups with the new recordings from Chicago about the same issue..

Now we have the LA Times video buzzing everywhere, great news indeed!

re: #18 Dark_Falcon

i recieved the message "video is no longer available"

At my university the campus paper headlined "A Campus Divided?" during the student elections and cited polling numbers that showed a 3% difference from 500 votes. Being all too aware of the on campus apathy I quickly opened Excel and generated 500 random 1's and 0's. The percentage difference was about 3%. My letter to the editor was titled "A Campus Divided or Equally Apathetic?". It was not published.

I like the Hawks approach. Have long since decided that if ever "polled" I'd lie

Lizards, you need to see this posting on Free Republic. It is a cross post from the Team Sarah blog by a disgruntled ex-Obama supporter. She claims that the Obama campaign is doing a lot of things we suspect is happening namely:

The internal campaign idea is to twist, distort, humiliate and finally dispirit you.

We pay people and organize people to go to all the online sites and “play the part of a clinton or mccain supporter who just switched our support for obama”

We do this to stifle your motivation and to destroy your confidence.

We did this the whole primary and it worked.

Sprinkle in mass vote confusion and it becomes bewildering. Most people lose patience and just give up on their support of a candidate and decide to just block out tv, news, websites, etc.

This surprisingly has had a huge suppressing movement and vote turnout issues.

Next, we infiltrate all the blogs and all the youtube videos and overwhelm the voting, the comments, etc. All to continue this appearance of overwhelming world support.

People makes posts to the effect that the world has “gone mad”

Thats the intention. To make you feel stressed and crazy and feel like the world is ending.

Our donors, are the same people who finance the MSM. Their interests are tied, Barack then tends to come across as teflon. Nothing sticks. And trust, there were meetings with Fox news. The goal was to blunt them as much as possible. Watch Bill Oreilly he has become much more diplomatic and “fair and balanced” and soft. Its because he wants to retain the #1 spot on cable news and to do that he has to have access to the Obama campaign and we worked hard at stringing him a long and keeping him soft for an interview swap. It worked and now he is anticipating more access. So he is playing it still soft.

This is why nothing sticks.

The operation is massive, the goal is to paint a picture that is that of a winner, regardless of the results.

There is no true inauguration draft or true grant park construction going on. There will be a party, but we are boasting beyond the truth to make it seem like the election is wrapped up.

Our goal is to continue to make you lose your morale. We worked hard at persuasion and paying off and timing and playing the right political numbers to get key republican endorsements to make it seem even more like it was over and the world was coming to an end for you all.

There is a huge staff of people working around the clock, watching every site, blogs, etc. We flood these sites. We have had a goal to overwhelm.

The truth is here. I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE. IF YOU DO NOTHING ELSE GET YOUR A** TO THE POLLS ON ELECTION DAY AND PULL THE LEVER, PUNCH THE CHAD, OR FILL IN THE DOT FOR MCCAIN/PALIN!

re: #33 JSK1121

I thought it was scheduled for tomorrow. Hopefully all the Nielsen homes are Republican :)

Thanks.
/I wouldn't want to miss it.

received

re: #29 FloridaAnole

Good for her and good for you for sharing that with us.

re: #25 cliffster

He was just doing what he thought was right. Weird, I know. We don't agree, and we're also unfamiliar with someone doing something that doesn't in some way translate to political maneuvering. But there you are.

Listen I am voting for him and will talk him up all I can, but he has been wrong-very wrong- alot before. He is the McCain on McCain- Feingold. He had NO desire to secure our borders. He reached across the isle to get those Federal Judges confirmed and the democrats spat on us. He is a patriot and I will go to the barricades with him, but with one week to go, it's a tad late to get serious.

re: #32 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

No World Series tonight. Is this the night of The One™'s propaganda BS?

What, they postponed it? They should never even have started last night, imo. And can't the umps enforce basic infield-fly rules in weather like that?

At least this means (I guess) that Hamels might be able to pitch Game 7 if there is one. But will there be baseball in November again?

Did you get your free taco this afternoon? :-)

Superb analysis, separating the poll from the noise is impossible to do nowadays. Would that I had more dings to give for Iowahawk.

re: #42 Nevergiveup

Save it for Nov. 5 ;)

re: #35 willowone

i recieved the message "video is no longer available"

Your Adobe Flash player is most likely corrupted, like Nobama's campaign. Go here and follow the instructions to fix it.

re: #42 Nevergiveup

Listen I am voting for him and will talk him up all I can, but he has been wrong-very wrong- alot before. He is the McCain on McCain- Feingold. He had NO desire to secure our borders. He reached across the isle to get those Federal Judges confirmed and the democrats spat on us. He is a patriot and I will go to the barricades with him, but with one week to go, it's a tad late to get serious.

He's not my pick, but I believe he thinks right.

The last sentence is the best.

IOWAHAWK -------------- *rimshot*

re: #47 Ozark Mountain Daredevil
alright ty.

re: #46 rawmuse

Save it for Nov. 5 ;)

This is gonna be a long week.

re: #44 arethusa

What, they postponed it? They should never even have started last night, imo. And can't the umps enforce basic infield-fly rules in weather like that?

At least this means (I guess) that Hamels might be able to pitch Game 7 if there is one. But will there be baseball in November again?

Did you get your free taco this afternoon? :-)

Next year if there is a game 7 it will be on Nov. 7th.

Meanwhile, Team Obama is on the march:

Palin Protesters almost run over

re: #38 Colonel Panik

Lizards, you need to see this posting on Free Republic. It is a cross post from the Team Sarah blog by a disgruntled ex-Obama supporter. She claims that the Obama campaign is doing a lot of things we suspect is happening namely:

I wondered if we would ever get any insider information from Obama's Sturmabteilung. Even before the actual election in 2004, there were news magazine articles from "inside John Kerry's campaign", showing what a complete mess it was. Not so much this time.

I hope this person's life insurance is paid up and that they know to watch their back. We see what happens to those who question The Holy One, I'd hate to see what they did to a flat-out traitor.

re: #44 arethusa

What, they postponed it? They should never even have started last night, imo. And can't the umps enforce basic infield-fly rules in weather like that?

At least this means (I guess) that Hamels might be able to pitch Game 7 if there is one. But will there be baseball in November again?

Did you get your free taco this afternoon? :-)

No, I'm not going to drive 5 miles to get an .89 taco for free, lol.

re: #38 Colonel Panik
Hey there Colonel! Uh, I like what this person said, but honestly, how the hell do we know that that posting wasn't just a bullshit ride too?
I think the only truth we'll see from Obama is gonna be after he loses on November 4th, goes to court over it and then on November 8th or so he'll concede.

re: #51 Nevergiveup

This is gonna be a long week.

The final countdown

re: #50 willowone

alright ty.

No problem, I had the same problem about a month ago and LGF'er stevieray solved it. H/T to him.

re: #37 brumor

I like the Hawks approach. Have long since decided that if ever "polled" I'd lie

I was just polled (by phone) I lied, please forgive me but I want want Nov. 4th to be a big surprise for the One who won't be the One on the 5th.

re: #43 ploome hineni

from Commentary
he's gonna lose

...and he's not what he appears to be.

re: #57 Killgore Trout

You spend too much time online, don't you KT? lol

re: #52 HoosierHoops

Next year if there is a game 7 it will be on Nov. 7th.

I heard that. I can't believe they would let that happen. Last night's weather in Philadelphia proved that baseball shouldn't even be a late-October sport.

re: #61 Desert Dog

;)

Colonel Panik (#38),

DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE.

Never did.

Iowahawk is definitley a scream ok, but the easiest thing to remember is this quote (paraprhase, actually) from Mark Twain: " Statistics are like 'ladies of the evening' - once you get 'em down, you can have your way with them!".

In BIG RED TYPE- Headline at Drudge: Gallup has Obama +2, a statistical tie.

The reason why statisticians get the big bucks (that is, the good statisticians) is due to the interpretation of a statistic. One more time -- it's not the "numbers" that count -- it's how you interpret the numbers.

One of the biggest problems with statistics is when a statistician attempts to read more into a stat than the figure allows. (This happens all the time)...it's what I wanted to post earlier (a couple of weeks ago)...never got around to it....So, let's say, there's a poll taken...about which candidate a likely voter intends to vote for...Is this a prediction for Nov 4? Is this "the answer" for who will become the next POTUS? No legitimate pollster would ever, EVER, make such a claim -- ie, that so-and-so (given his current lead in the polls) will become the next POTUS (the spin doctors will make such claims..). The most which can be gleamed from a poll, is how (if at the very next moment) the likely voters were to vote, this is how the results would look...but, it's assuming no hidden last minute "surprises." No, hidden biases in the polls; no great "unknowns" (such as the so-called "undecided" voters); no sudden shift from when the respondents were polled to the day of the actual voting; no lying to the pollsters; no "likely" voters deciding not to vote after all; etc., etc., all such factors (if they come into play) will result in inaccurate polls. Finally, a poll will never, ever be able to predict what people actually do...It is all up in the air.

re: #51 Nevergiveup

This is gonna be a long week.

You sound as pessimistic as I am. It's not all bad right? It's nice to be pleasently suprised every now and then.

Hey ploome.

Swimmingly.

I hand carried and personally delivered my absentee ballot to the NYC Bd. of Elections.

I trust nobody in this liberal cesspool.

Loved that piece by Iowahawk. Not as funny as some of his other pieces but bang on. I think I actually new what that formula was doing. :)

/Statistical Analysis in college, and grade twelve math here in Canada.

I feel the same way about sports fans talking about a game before it happens. Shut up and wait. The pre-game prognostications are rarely correct. Things rarely work out the way you think they will. And if they do, it's usually for reasons you never anticipated.

re: #68 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

In BIG RED TYPE- Headline at Drudge: Gallup has Obama +2, a statistical tie.

Someone will have fondled their balls differently by morning.

/Iowahawk, I love ya!

Well, thanks to post #38 I think we know what 0bama's storm troopers will be up to when he creates his national security force equal in financial support to our US military.

Any teachers on right now? I am not smarter than a 5th grader. I am helping my daughter with math (input, output: solve for the rule). I've gotten all the ones she was stuck on but the last.

Input Output
3 7
5 13
10 28
6 (blank, fill in missing number)

Rule:

Anyone?

re: #75 pre-Boomer Marine brat

Someone will have fondled their balls differently by morning.

/Iowahawk, I love ya!

LOL

re: #38 Colonel Panik

These tactics give me the image of the Nazis in Cabaret. They were organized, they presented themselves as morally superior - until they took over and started shoveling people into ovens.

re: #57 Killgore Trout
Uh, Killgore - just how "remote" is that lakeside cabin of yours, anyway?!? LOL - a piano, uekele and a kazoo?!? ROTFL!

Obama Election Night Rally: One Million People?
[Link: blogs.abcnews.com...]
Chicago Mayor Daley is predicting an enormous crowd for a Barack Obama election-night rally (win or lose) in the Windy City's Grant Park. Daley said logistics, not security, worry him most -- though the city has tapped a security veteran of the 2005 Chicago White Sox World Series celebrations to help coordinate with the Secret Service. "That night," said Daley, "we will have the best security not only for the candidate and his family but the entire city as well."

Mr Daley better have an entire ARMY ready, that could be a hell of riot.

re: #62 arethusa

I heard that. I can't believe they would let that happen. Last night's weather in Philadelphia proved that baseball shouldn't even be a late-October sport.

October baseball is my mental transition from summer to holidays :)

re: #38 Colonel Panik

Thanks for posting this. I think it's what a lot of people have suspected, especially with regard to some of the less subtle weepers and wailers trolling their way through LGF; either that or some people need massive doses of Prozac.

Speaking of trolls, can anybody tell me who the hell this undertaker trollblogger Ross Douthat is? He is posing as a concerned conservative in mourning, and why the hell doesn't he just put himself out of his misery and go bury himself pronto, along with people like Noonan and Parker and Buckley et al?

Nuts to Iowahawk !

re: #75 pre-Boomer Marine brat

Someone will have fondled their balls differently by morning.

/Iowahawk, I love ya!

That's why they play the game Have elections.

re: #69 J.S.
Hey J.S. - sorta what Mark Twain was gettin' at in my #66, no?!

re: #84 ted

Nuts to Iowahawk !

He urned it!

OT I just found out a personal story that has made my blood boil. One of the 'unskilled' workers at the small business I work for was involved in an altercation with another unskilled worker. The one who started it is in his 40s and is a big guy. The woman is a Puerto Rican lady in her 60's and is the hardest working lady in the plant. She busts her butt and is picked on for it. Anyway, she has a McCain-Palin sticker on her truck. The big guy apparently got in her face and threatened to bust the windows out of her truck! This isn't even the part that has my blood boiling, but this: The guy came up to me earlier and said, verbatim "Man you need to give me a raise, I'm 'bout to have another kid."

Asshole got mad someone was voting against his handout.

re: #68 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

In BIG RED TYPE- Headline at Drudge: Gallup has Obama +2, a statistical tie.

Everybody knows the Republican candidate always does better than the poll numbers.

Has Obama proposed the redistribution of balls yet?

Specially if the messiah is planning on having Wright and Pflegger to warm up the crowd..

re: #80 realwest

Uh, Killgore - just how "remote" is that lakeside cabin of yours, anyway?!? LOL - a piano, uekele and a kazoo?!? ROTFL!

Can I come, I have 20 blues harps, 2 chord harmonica's and a kicking Tombo bass harmonica. Oh, and my accordion!

re: #77 ArmyWife

Any teachers on right now? I am not smarter than a 5th grader. I am helping my daughter with math (input, output: solve for the rule). I've gotten all the ones she was stuck on but the last.

Input Output
3 7
5 13
10 28
6 (blank, fill in missing number)

Rule:

Anyone?

3X - 2. 6 would be 16.

re: #78 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

LOL

52?

re: #87 pre-Boomer Marine brat

He urned it!

Right-0 !

re: #90 jcm

Has Obama proposed the redistribution of balls yet?

Yes but only left balls.

re: #56 realwest

Hey there Colonel! Uh, I like what this person said, but honestly, how the hell do we know that that posting wasn't just a bullshit ride too?
I think the only truth we'll see from Obama is gonna be after he loses on November 4th, goes to court over it and then on November 8th or so he'll concede.

There's something about it that smells right to me. This person was a Hillary supporter who thought she could support the "O" but once she got inside...

I am saying this because I know HRC was better for the country, and now realize this. I was too late by the time I connected to her. To me Barack was just a cool young dude that seemed like a star. I didn’t know him or his policies, but now I understand more than I care to and I realize his interests are more for him, and the DNC and all working like puppets with dean. I always thought a president wanted the better good for the country. The end result I see is everyone dependent on the government, this means more and more people voting for the DNC. This means the future is forever altered. I don’t see this as america, so I am now supporting John Mccain.

Sarah Palin is a huge threat, and our campaign has feared her like you can’t imagine. If it seems unfair how she has been treated, well its because she has had a team working round the clock to make her look like a fool.

this is a big conspiracy and I am so shocked that its not realized.

We released a little blurb the other day that the Obama campaign was already working on reelection and now putting our efforts towards 2012. This was to make it seem like it was above us to continue caring about 2008. Trust me, its a lie. David is very smart, but its a sticky ugly not very truthful kind of intelligence.

Its not over yet, but I think the machine is working. And its a hill to climb.

I will be quitting my post on nov 5th and my vote will be for John Mccain. Fortunately, my position has been a marketing position and I don’t feel I had any part of anything I would feel guilty for. But I look forward to getting out of this as the negativity and environment upsets me.

I wish you all well, and goodluck.

PS my name is not really sarah. but I am a female and I understand your plight.

The margin of error is at any rate at leastthus and so.

Even if the urn/ball model was perfectly valid, and even if you really could get a random sample, the actual fraction of blue and red in the urn would probably differ by something on the order of 1/sqrt(n) from your fraction computed from an n-sized sample.

Just as long as the poll analysis makes it clear that the "confidence interval" says only that the poll is probably missing the mark by {at least} that much, and maybe much more, it's all good.

The pollsters can argue that historically, their methods have worked fairly well. They've corrected some of the mistakes they used to make. No more Dewey beats Truman? But as we've just seen with the wild swings of the market, history runs off the rails from time to time. The bell curve is a terrible model for how frequent large swings in human affairs are compared to smaller fluctuations. Sure, large swings are less common. But once you've computed the 1-standard deviation interval, when it comes to classical statistics, you can pretty much say there won't be any ten-standard deviation events.

In human affairs, events far outside what everybody who was anybody knew was the range of the possible are rare. But not rare to the point of vanishing. Read the book. So you think all swans are white?

It really, truly, isn't over until the Fat Lady Sings.

Just vote. Once, please.

Iowahawk for Chairman of the Federal Reserve

re: #90 jcm

Has Obama proposed the redistribution of balls yet?

How many leftist have you ever seen with any balls? Well, I hope you're not actively checking, but, you get my drift.

re: #90 jcm

Has Obama proposed the redistribution of balls yet?

I've been WAY too tough on you recently.
I'm letting that one go by unmolested.

Did the day care center survive?
(-:

re: #80 realwest

I'm still living in the city. The economic crisis has put a damper on my plan to escape to the coast. Maybe next year.

Army wife:

The formula is Output = 3*input - 2.

so the answer is 16.

re: #38 Colonel Panik

Never give up. Never quit. Never surrender.

If the vote goes against us next tuesday, our fight is just starting.

re: #93 FurryOldGuyJeans

Man, I have one massive migraine coming on now.

re: #62 arethusa

I heard that. I can't believe they would let that happen. Last night's weather in Philadelphia proved that baseball shouldn't even be a late-October sport.

What MLB should do, and this is my idea (I thought of it last night watching the players wearing baseball hats with earflaps), is play about 15-20 day/night double-headers each year (so they still get revenue from all the games), which would be 30-40 games, or about 2 months worth of games, and start the season in May and end it in September.

re: #93 FurryOldGuyJeans

3X - 2. 6 would be 16.

Ahh. I thought she was looking for a vertical pattern, not an expression.

/Ima moron.

re: #103 iowahawk

Army wife:

The formula is Output = 3*input - 2.

so the answer is 16.

It really figures you came up with that..

re: #65 ploome hineni

lol

The One

re: #77 ArmyWife

input times 3, then subtract 2?

There isn't any one correct answer. There are other formulas that will fit the data. But they're all more complicated than this one.

re: #92 Walter L. Newton Of course you can come, but only if you leave that damn accordian at home!
;')

re: #70 NC State of Mind

You sound as pessimistic as I am. It's not all bad right? It's nice to be pleasently suprised every now and then.

I got a bite to eat. Things look better now. Kinda?

re: #105 FurryOldGuyJeans

Man, I have one massive migraine coming on now.

Something 0 said or did?

re: #108 HoosierHoops

It really figures you came up with that..

*AHEM* See #93. ;)

Hey, y'all - seems like we might be up REALLY late into the wee hours of Nov. 5. That's because Ohio is using both paper and electronic ballots.

re: #77 ArmyWife

Any teachers on right now? I am not smarter than a 5th grader. I am helping my daughter with math (input, output: solve for the rule). I've gotten all the ones she was stuck on but the last.

Input Output
3 7
5 13
10 28
6 (blank, fill in missing number)

Rule:

Anyone?

((input) * 3) - 2 - (output)

re: #83 FloridaAnole

Thanks for posting this. I think it's what a lot of people have suspected, especially with regard to some of the less subtle weepers and wailers trolling their way through LGF; either that or some people need massive doses of Prozac.

Speaking of trolls, can anybody tell me who the hell this undertaker trollblogger Ross Douthat is? He is posing as a concerned conservative in mourning, and why the hell doesn't he just put himself out of his misery and go bury himself pronto, along with people like Noonan and Parker and Buckley et al?

You're welcome. I had a business appt in Salt Lake City today that got rescheduled for tomorrow and I went and parked by the little lake park in Murray and read campaign stories on my BlackBerry for an hour or so. I found that and thought I should post it here. The tactics she describes are really in evidence on a lot of the MSM comment blogs of newspapers, TV stations and so on that seem to be overrun with Obama supporters. Probably a group of pimply teens Axelrod has locked in a a "boiler room" being fed pizza and Jolt cola 24-7. I wonder if he allows them bathroom breaks. LOL.

re: #86 realwest

Ha! Yes, that's it! succinct and funny...but, that's really it...

Jesse Jackson wanted his way with BHO's balls a couple of months back.
Now they go hand in hand.

re: #96 Moe Katz

Yes but only left balls.

Right balls get put in a gulag?

I love this man! He is witty, intelligent, pithy, and an absolute joy to read!

re: #112 Nevergiveup

I got a bite to eat. Things look better now. Kinda?

Mac gained 3 points while you were gone!

/go eat again

re: #38 Colonel Panik

Cripes, you know what that reminds me of? It reminds me of CNN being nice to Saddam, so they could "have access".

re: #119 ted

Jesse Jackson wanted his way with BHO's balls a couple of months back.
Now they go hand in hand.

I bet they hate each other?

re: #101 pre-Boomer Marine brat

I've been WAY too tough on you recently.
I'm letting that one go by unmolested.

Did the day care center survive?
(-:

Barely....... One boy has some kind of throat / tongue thing going so he stayed home. One is off to a visit with bio-mom and be back in awhile.

As an engineer who has taken just such a statistics course, I can say that the formulas actually look like they might be the real deal. Beyond that, I can vouch for the fact that his main thesis is absolutely correct. There are too many unknowns (and too much of a history of erroneous polls) to say how accurate or how biased these polls are.

Even in my profession, I've sometimes seen us use the classic models for things, when the facts about the real world don't match the model (often because there is no obvious or easy alternative, which is not a good reason). Or just do the statistics wrong. My favorite example of the latter was a formula I saw for a probability, where it was possible for the answer to come out greater than one! You point out that it has to be wrong, and they call you "negative". Then they wonder why it doesn't work correctly...

re: #103 iowahawk

Iowahawk, I am forever in your debt. Ok, not forever, but a good long time. If there is anything I can do for you, let me know - so long as the questions stop at 4th grade. =)

/wow. They let me run the HR department for a very large chemical company. Don't tell, ok?

re: #97 Colonel Panik
Well, as I said I hope it's right, but ya know that poster sounds like someone from LGF (gasp!) saying what we all believe and expect to be the truth.
Still and all, unless proven otherwise, I accept it as true - cause I WANT it to be true!

Thank you everyone. I go downstairs, head held in shame as I explain this to my 5th grader.

Back to regular programming...

Leave it to Iowahawk to help me understand Zombie's Clever Hans and Solomon Asch essay.

re: #119 ted

Jesse Jackson wanted his way with BHO's balls a couple of months back.
Now they go hand in hand.

Is one of 'em likely to get the shaf ... er, no ... never mind

There's one sector of the economy that is booming, and Obama can take all the credit.

Gun Sales Thriving Despite Tough Economy
Washington Post: Purchases Up 8 To 10 Percent Due To Economic Concerns And Fears Of More Gun Control If Obama Wins Election

Americans have cut back on buying cars, furniture and clothes in a tough economy, but there's one consumer item that's still enjoying healthy sales: guns. Purchases of firearms and ammunition have risen 8 to 10 percent this year, according to state and federal data.

AMEN

re: #127 ArmyWife

Iowahawk, I am forever in your debt. Ok, not forever, but a good long time. If there is anything I can do for you, let me know - so long as the questions stop at 4th grade. =)

/wow. They let me run the HR department for a very large chemical company. Don't tell, ok?

Go ahead and ignore the furry guy. Everyone else does. (My #93). ;)

re: #125 jcm

Barely....... One boy has some kind of throat / tongue thing going so he stayed home. One is off to a visit with bio-mom and be back in awhile.

Best wishes for the ill one.

re: #102 Killgore Trout
Ah, rats Killgore - I'm really sorry to hear that. Hope things are better for ya next year - but I must confess y'all have some pretty strange city neighbors then! LOL!

The Heritage Foundation today asked Barack Obama to immediately pull two ads that misrepresent the views of Heritage’s Rea Hederman. The campaign has released a 30-second TV ad with false information and repeats it on the campaign website. The following letter was sent by Heritage lawyer Alan P. Dye to the Obama campaign.
[Link: blog.heritage.org...]

re: #77 ArmyWife

My guess is 38
4,8,16,32

re: #127 ArmyWife

Catbert, is that YOU?!

/teasing

A little bit of encouragement for our PA lizards (and for the rest of us, too!) from the Hillary Clinton Forum:

Read the whole thread, there's another article from Hillbuzz

Iowahawk genius again!

But it doesn't start or end with the calculation of the results.

True story .... My group at work was assigned to create a poll to determine attitudes. In came the "professional poll creator." What an education!

In short, creating a poll and calculating the results of a poll was a trip into 'phrase-ology' and 'weighting' - weighting the questions and weighting the "persons" who responded. I mean endless, endless hours of back and forth over every question and every word. Hours of second-guessing that consisted of 'is the response representative of the group from which it comes and on and on .....

In short, I don't answer any pollster or believe the 'results' of any poll.

Yay, Obama is now endorsing corrupt Democratic Congressmen!

I knew you could do it, Barry!/

re: #127 ArmyWife

Iowahawk, I am forever in your debt. Ok, not forever, but a good long time. If there is anything I can do for you, let me know - so long as the questions stop at 4th grade. =)

/wow. They let me run the HR department for a very large chemical company. Don't tell, ok?

Thanks but Furry Guy beat me to it.

Joe the Plumber makes headlines in Israeli Newspapers!

[Link: www.haaretz.com...]

But Sheppard Smith makes fun of him here?

re: #11 ciaospirit

Sorry to post OT so soon, but have to post & run. Just checked my email and this Obama/Wright ad is out. The group, National Republican Trust, is seeking donations to get it on the air as much as possible. Why did they wait so long?

Poll inaccuracies aside, my theory is that if the country wakes up to the fact that Obama is really a far-left socialist radical, then he's "done". "Joe the Plumber" was helpful, as well as The One's 2001 confession, but we need some real advertising if the message is to get out.

McCain won't do it. It's up to guys like this to save civilization (it just might be THAT important).

re: #129 ArmyWife

Thank you everyone. I go downstairs, head held in shame as I explain this to my 5th grader.

Back to regular programming...

Be proud of him! That's some class he's taking to be reverse engineering algebraic expressions in fifth grade.

I will fight to the death to defend Iowahawk's right to confuse me.

re: #135 pre-Boomer Marine brat

Best wishes for the ill one.

He's already perking up. It's an odd one he says he tongue hurts, no fever, won't eat and he's a good eater. Several calls with the consulting nurse over the last couple days and we've got a couple things going for him

re: #115 arethusa
Oh Lord no - not the hanging chads again!
I'm really surprised that the states can't come up with reliable, easy to use, voting machines.
Bet if they gave the contract to any casino owner he or she'd have it done in a week!
And that includes production, too!

re: #134 FurryOldGuyJeans

I was saving a special thank you just for the furry gu. It was going to be just between me and you, but now you've gone and ruined it! ;)

Thanks, seriously. I am the left side outlier on the brains bell curve for this one!

oops, thought it was pattern match. Missed rule.

October 28, 2008
More on the Polls

On Friday, I noted that the differences among the national polls is large enough to suspect that something other than random variation is causing the disagreements.

I'd like to expand on this point by examining today's Pew poll, which pegs McCain's share of the vote at 38%, with a margin of error of 3.5%. That means that Pew predicts with 95% confidence that McCain's true share of the vote is somewhere between 34.5% and 41.5%.

While we don't know McCain's true share of the vote, we do have an estimate of it - the RCP average. Right now, it puts McCain at 43.6%. This figure is far outside Pew's 95% confidence range. So, if we use the RCP average as our estimate of McCain's true share of the vote, we would conclude that Pew is an outlier.

The question then becomes whether it is outlying due to random variation, or some non-random cause. We can never know for sure, but we can make a few points.

First, the level of disagreement between the Pew poll and the RCP average is great. Indeed, if we assume that the Pew poll has an accurate read on the electorate, the chance that McCain's true share of the vote is 43.6% is less than 0.5%. Given the number of polls that cycle in and out of the RCP average, we should expect at least a few outliers. However, it would be pretty rare to find one that disagrees with the RCP average by such a large amount.

Second, the previous Pew poll, which had McCain at 39% of the vote, was also an outlier when compared against the RCP average. So, Pew has twice in a row pegged McCain's number at significantly less than the RCP average. It is very unlikely to see this kind of result if random variation is the only cause.

Does this mean that Pew is wrong? No. We could only conclude that Pew is wrong if we know McCain's true share of the vote right now. We don't know that. Instead, what we can conclude is that the difference between Pew and the RCP average is likely produced by something other than random variation.

Pew is not the only poll behaving in this fashion. Today, the Gallup traditional model pegs McCain's number significantly higher than the RCP average. It has done this several times over the last three weeks - and every day since it began it has shown McCain doing better than the RCP average. It is unlikely that random variation would produce these effects. Today's Rasmussen poll shows McCain significantly higher than the RCP average, and it has consistently been higher than the RCP average for the last three weeks. IBD/TIPP frequently pegs Obama's number significantly lower than the RCP average, and it has shown him lower than the RCP average every day since it began. The GWU/Battleground poll has shown McCain consistently higher than the RCP average for 10 of the last 10 release dates, frequently at significant levels.

None of this is consistent with what we would expect from random statistical variation. These considerations reinforce the point I made on Friday. In all likelihood, something else is going on here. The pollsters have different "visions" of what the electorate is, and these visions are inducing such divergent results.

This is why I would urge caution when interpreting all this polling data. We're talking about disagreements among good pollsters. I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can't be chalked up to statistical "noise." That gives me great pause.

[Link: www.realclearpolitics.com...]

re: #143 iowahawk

Thanks but Furry Guy beat me to it.

At least SOMEONE recognized it. Thanks, iowahawk. ;)

re: #142 arethusa

Yay, Obama is now endorsing corrupt Democratic Congressmen!

I knew you could do it, Barry!/

Come on Barry, keep the dirt coming. We'll bury you with it yet!

re: #132 jcm

Something tells me that the people buying guns now in case Obama wins aren't buying them with the idea that they'll just turn them in in the event that an Obama Presidency, with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, decides to outlaw them.

re: #121 notutopia
Good thing you said that, he's on this thread! (see #103!).

re: #152 ted

something else is going on here

Could be but I'm still not betting on it.

re: #150 ArmyWife

I was saving a special thank you just for the furry gu. It was going to be just between me and you, but now you've gone and ruined it! ;)

Thanks, seriously. I am the left side outlier on the brains bell curve for this one!

Some people have talents for obscure things, like me. Then there is the rest of the world that have talents worth something. :)

I do thank you for sharing that little puzzle, it was fun figuring it out.

Iowahawk has me wetting my pants.

My wife saw the McCain interview this morn on CNBC. She thought he was shaky on the economy. He just can't speak about economics forcefully, like foreign policy.

Obama is truly a socialist and sleeps with his teleprompter in case his wife asks him something.

Just hope Johnny Mac pulls it out Tuesday.

re: #148 jcm

Does sound rather odd.

Trying to decide if Obama is more like Zima or Pet Rock. He's been marketed a lot like the Wii.
Biden's just the lead paint that spurs a recall.

re: #155 Iron Fist

Something tells me that the people buying guns now in case Obama wins aren't buying them with the idea that they'll just turn them in in the event that an Obama Presidency, with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, decides to outlaw them.

Lot's will go missing I'm sure.

And for you VietNam Vets, and family members of VietNam Vets...you will appreciate this book being written by the son of a VietNam Vet who is now currently serving in Afghanistan:

KILLING JANE FONDA

The flash intro alone is worth a few moments of your time.

This guy must be reading LGF or other blogs that have covered the Ayers story as he mentions the Weatherman's plans for America if they and their communist allies had been successful in taking America down.

re: #154 Dark_Falcon

Come on Barry, keep the dirt coming. We'll bury you with it yet!

I think he forgot the Rid-X.

re: #160 pre-Boomer Marine brat

Does sound rather odd.

I told him if I catch it he's gonna' be in loads of trouble....
/ ;-)

re: #90 jcm

Has Obama proposed the redistribution of balls yet?

That's scheduled for next week...

Misha over at the Anti idiotarian rottweiler is going through a tough time. If you can help, or just offer encouragement, go to [Link: www.nicedoggie.net....] Youll be glad you did.

re: #157 Killgore Trout

Could be but I'm still not betting on it.

It makes a good point, tho.

I'm watching "It's the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown!". And you can't stop me.

re: #162 jcm

They'll just evaporate. Of course, I myself have never owned a gun, but if I had I'd have sold it before any legislation passed.

Best. Editorial. Cartoon. Ever.

re: #152 ted

First, the level of disagreement between the Pew poll and the RCP average is great. Indeed, if we assume that the Pew poll has an accurate read on the electorate, the chance that McCain's true share of the vote is 43.6% is less than 0.5%.
[Link: www.realclearpolitics.com...]

Isn't it a 5% chance? I would like to know what Obama's number was in the Pew poll was as well. If his numbers were lower also, the poll could have simply been conducted in such a way as to have more people say they were undecided than the other polls. Perhaps a more direct question was asked than usual.

re: #169 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

I'm watching "It's the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown!". And you can't stop me.

I wouldn't even try. But President Obama might...

Heck, I think I'll go watch it myself! Haven't seen it in years.

re: #146 NC State of Mind

She is in the gifted and talented program, some of the stuff she comes home with is incredible. This is the first time I have been stumped, something tells me it's not the last.

re: #174 arethusa

ABC

re: #155 Iron Fist

Something tells me that the people buying guns now in case Obama wins aren't buying them with the idea that they'll just turn them in in the event that an Obama Presidency, with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, decides to outlaw them.

It's really ugly to contemplate, but yes, this is part of contingency planning for a free republic.

re: #163 Colonel Panik

And for you VietNam Vets, and family members of VietNam Vets...you will appreciate this book being written by the son of a VietNam Vet who is now currently serving in Afghanistan:

KILLING JANE FONDA

The flash intro alone is worth a few moments of your time.

This guy must be reading LGF or other blogs that have covered the Ayers story as he mentions the Weatherman's plans for America if they and their communist allies had been successful in taking America down.

wow!

Well y'all gotta go eat supper - hope to get the chance to see you all later on down the road!

re: #93 FurryOldGuyJeans

3X - 2. 6 would be 16.

Concur. Good job!

re: #163 Colonel Panik

And for you VietNam Vets, and family members of VietNam Vets...you will appreciate this book being written by the son of a VietNam Vet who is now currently serving in Afghanistan:

KILLING JANE FONDA

The flash intro alone is worth a few moments of your time.

This guy must be reading LGF or other blogs that have covered the Ayers story as he mentions the Weatherman's plans for America if they and their communist allies had been successful in taking America down.

Hooked already, the flash is great.

re: #170 Iron Fist

They'll just evaporate. Of course, I myself have never owned a gun, but if I had I'd have sold it before any legislation passed.

To loosely paraphrase Jeff Cooper, the difference between a free man and a slave is a rifle.

re: #174 arethusa

I got a rock. :(

re: #110 lostlakehiker

input times 3, then subtract 2?

There isn't any one correct answer. There are other formulas that will fit the data. But they're all more complicated than this one.

Show off!

As they taught us in our second semester math (calculus) class in college, you can always come up with a pattern (formula) that can make the next number come out to be literally anything.

re: #184 Optimizer

ok ArmyWife, you know the one about giving you a fish vs teaching you to fish -- what they are asking in this problem is to come up with the simplest pattern. So you have 3 points, the simplest is to draw a line through two of them and hope it goes through the third one too. Bingo, it does, and you are done., that's your pattern, or law or whatever you call it.

Alright, ladies and gents, I decided it was time to do a little citizen journalism with my cellphone. Here's a transcript as word for word as I can make it:

I was on hold for approximately 10 minutes.

"Good evening. Would you please inform me as to where I might be able to get a copy of the Obama-Khalidi tape?"
"You mean an actual copy?"
"No, rather might I ask if the Times intends to release the tape?"
"Let me connect you to editorial"
...Dial Tone...
"Hello, how may I help you?"
"Good evening. I am calling to inquire after an April 10th, 2008 article-"
"One moment."
...Dial Tone...
"Hello, this in Nancy."
"Good evening. Does the LA times intend to release the Obama-Khalidi tape before November 4th?"
"No."
"You wouldn't consider that journalistic suppression?"
"No, we were the first to report on it."
"And don't you think the media ought to inform, not play kingmaker in this election?"
"I'm afraid I don't follow your line of thought."
"Thank you for your time and have a nice evening."
"You too."

...Hang Up....

What the Times said is bolded. I wish I had called with a prepared line of questioning, as I'm afraid I withered somewhat under the dismissive tone of "Nancy's" voice. Their number is on their website.

Lessons learned:

1. Call with a prepared line of questioning.
2. If you can befuddle the customer service people, they just refer you higher ups which is a good thing.
3. Don't wither!
4. Type a transcript as you go.

re: #182 jcm

Yeah. The way I heard it was a little different:

A man who deems himself free, but lacks the arms and will to defend his freedom, is not free. He is merely fortunate.

I can honestly say that no other candidate for President in my lifetime scared me as bad as Obama. He is in a class all by himself.

Oops, sorry, got the wrong post...

re: #3 FurryOldGuyJeans

Statistics are not science, and political polls are nothing but necromancy.

I have to take exception there. Statistics may not be science in the strictest sense of the word (Logical Positivism, the Scientific Method, blah blah blah) but statistical methods are absolutely necessary tool to conduct science; agronomy, process control, biology, engineering, medicine, economics, social sciences, etc. Statistics is certainly an important branch of mathematics, and if you want to talk hardcore science, statistical distributions are at the foundation of Quantum / Particle Physics.

(I'm a little touchy because if it weren't for statistics, I'd be out of a day job.)

But I will agree with you on one point: political polling is necromancy. The Red Light District of statistical analysis.

re: #140 Intrepid

A little bit of encouragement for our PA lizards (and for the rest of us, too!) from the Hillary Clinton Forum:

Read the whole thread, there's another article from Hillbuzz

A great read! Those PUMAs are really something; they're a real inspiration! Let's try to motivate some of the quitters on our side to shake off the doom and gloom and get to the polls, and make it happen.

re: #185 kuchuklambat

Thanks. I actually made it out of 5th grade, so hopefully I won't need to fish in these waters again, but your point is well taken and will be shared with the one currently getting through 5th grade!

OT

Iowahawk, oh great God of the internal combustion engine, is this worth selling your soul and house for?

re: #38 Colonel Panik
This is the same message that was on HillBuzz yesterday I think.

Iowahawk duz it agin.

Iowahawk is just amazing. His mathematics is exact (hell, I'd forgotten the FPC bit -- but it's correct).

But how can he be so funny? This guy should be as well known as Dave Berry.

re: #192 unclassifiable

OT

Iowahawk, oh great God of the internal combustion engine, is this worth selling your soul and house for?

The GT-R has some impressive numbers, but new cars pretty much all strike me as kitchen appliances. I'm saving up my soul & house for the Doane Spencer roadster.

Oops. Dave Barry, not Berry.

re: #187 Iron Fist

Yeah. The way I heard it was a little different:

I can honestly say that no other candidate for President in my lifetime scared me as bad as Obama. He is in a class all by himself.

I go both ways, he's a buffoon that will crash and burn when people see what he really is. Which is scary because he's got so many fooled.

And that's he's really the Marxist I think he is, and not enough people will wake up in time.

Jane Fonda. One of my life's goals is to piss on her grave.

re: #196 iowahawk

Try transportation modules with all the personality of a dead stump.

re: #196 iowahawk

Well I should have known given your extensive hot rod background but thank you for the opinion none the less.

There's something comforting in my mind about a million-plus people showing up for Obama's coronation party, only to find out deep into the night that he will lose.

I hope the media does their duty, but I doubt they will. They'll chuck the videotapes into Lake Michigan and pretend they weren't even there.

re: #149 realwest

Oh Lord no - not the hanging chads again!
I'm really surprised that the states can't come up with reliable, easy to use, voting machines.
Bet if they gave the contract to any casino owner he or she'd have it done in a week!
And that includes production, too!

"They" can, of course - as you say.

It's a national disgrace. Mostly because of a corrupt attitude on the Dems side, of course.

re: #1 winston06

An moonbat heads will explode.

Cheers to Iowahawk. Your brilliant mind has redefined polling, as a mad pseudo-science, with little merit. But, they sure make a lot of money with these so called polls.

re: #190 FloridaAnole

A great read! Those PUMAs are really something; they're a real inspiration! Let's try to motivate some of the quitters on our side to shake off the doom and gloom and get to the polls, and make it happen.

Well put that way, way high on my list of things I would never, ever see in here - admiration and gratitude for Hillary supporters! Man, this is a crazy election!

re: #152 ted

To put this in English:

1) Iowahawk makes the argument that, in theory, the polls are almost certainly crap.

2) ted provides the data that proves Iowahawk's theory.

3) Therefore, we can conclude - with confidence - that the polls are crap! No lingering doubts that maybe we're just clinging to a false hope required - they're crap.

4) But that doesn't mean McCain is ahead, either. It just means we don't know.

re: #142 arethusa

Yay, Obama is now endorsing corrupt Democratic Congressmen!

I knew you could do it, Barry!/

"...corrupt Democratic Congressmen"

As Mark Twain said, "But I repeat myself."

Heh! You think polls by the in the tank, Rathergate-was-a-Rovian-plot MSM are bad?

Much scientific research is bad, even when conducted responsibly, so who the hell would have any faith in election "polls?"

The article is quite complex ... but ....

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
John P. A. Ioannidis

Summary

There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.

re: #6 Ozark Mountain Daredevil

It’s similar but easier to understand…-OMD

This adds to my theory of the Military vote being the key variable.

[Post in Americanthinker]

I'm a defense contractor at Ft. Bragg NC for the annual Special Operations Exposition and watched MY 82nd Airborne Choir sign [sing] at the opening ceremony this morning. You wonder, what does that have to do with the election? I'll tell you, if the rest of America heard what I heard from MY SOLDIERS (I'm retired Army and still serving!) you would not even question who to vote for, an honorably retired Naval officer or someone who has never even been in the boy scouts! You choose America and let me tell you...

See American thinker comments: Posted by: Spacelink Oct 28, 07:29 PM

Or see: Signs Pointing To A McCain Victory and click comments at bottom of page

[The military vote factor post]

With the military votes proper allocated to a battle ground state, say PA, I think McCain would win.

Here are some back of the envelope numbers:

Active military personnel 1.44 million
Reserve military personnel 0.848 million
Total 2.28 million

Military Dependents: .938 million

Those alone could swing the election.

[Military Times Poll]

Percent: McCain / Obama

Overall 68 23
Army 68 23
Navy 69 24
Air Force 67 24
Marines 75 18
Retirees 72 20
White Non-Hispanic 76 17
Hispanic 63 27
Black/African-American 12 79
Enlisted 67 24
Officers 70 22

See: Military Times poll
See: Military Times PDF file

Estimated number of Estimated Numbers of U.S. Veterans in Civil Life
6,231 (in thousands)

Then you can add in the Contractors of all strips and their families.

To what extent do the “polls” reflect of this? It is unknown. But, I would guess they under-count military personnel.

It is very possible that McCain will win the election.

For links see: Post 593 in Overnight Open Thread

All those numbers so remind me of the stat class I took while getting a grad degree. I don't think I ever really had a clue as to what I was doing and you could pretty well just make up numbers that would work as well as so called "real numbers" on some calculator and they weren't all that different.

The difference in the polls seem to relate to their "likely voter" models.
So make sure that you are more than an "likely" voter; make sure you
are an ACTUAL voter.

The total popular vote count does make a difference during
the four years our next President will be governing.

So ... even though in my state - Illinois - presidential voting this year
is a spectator sport ... I have become an ACTUAL voter.

Please be sure that you cast your vote become an ACTUAL voter TOO!

Confusion to the Pollsters!