Yon: Afghanistan is a Thorny Bush
Opinion • Views: 1,970
Michael Yon is deeply pessimistic about Afghanistan: A Dream That Will Not Come True.
88 comments
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wiffersnapper Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:16:12am |
Waiting for the Obamiracle in Afghanistan in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...
| 3 |
jwb7605 Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:16:18am |
That is the most pessimistic article I've ever read from Michael Yon.
I hope he's just depressed.
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Dark_Falcon Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:16:49am |
Could that be the idea? Could Obama be setting the Army up to fail? I think it possible, but I would like to hear from you folks.
| 5 |
notutopia Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:17:13am |
Please make a contribution to him via his web site.
[Link: www.michaelyon-online.com...]
| 6 |
Kragar Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:18:57am |
Odds were bad enough before. With Obama as CiC, its going to be damn near a lost cause
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debutaunt Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:19:35am |
re: #4 Dark_Falcon
Could that be the idea? Could Obama be setting the Army up to fail? I think it possible, but I would like to hear from you folks.
The left's favorite was was Vietnam?
| 9 |
Honorary Yooper Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:19:52am |
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Kragar Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:19:54am |
re: #4 Dark_Falcon
Could that be the idea? Could Obama be setting the Army up to fail? I think it possible, but I would like to hear from you folks.
I can easily see Barry doing what he can to undercut the military in order to humble the US before the rest of the world.
| 11 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:20:22am |
The supply lines are under increasing pressure - Krgyszstan may shut the USAF base there under pressure from Vlad.
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Ford_Prefect Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:21:02am |
Is this pessimism or realism? When has Afghanistan, or most of the countries in the Middle East for that matter, shown any inclination to be anything but a quagmire of hatred? I am becoming increasingly convinced that these people are neanderthals.
But Obama will educate them and they will soon be friendly, productive members of the world community. //
| 14 |
MJ Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:21:32am |
" We imagined that we could make the bush into a tree, as if straw could be spun into gold or rocks transmuted to flowers."
If the Israelis can "make the desert bloom", then certainly the Americans can grow a tree. However, making a functional Democracy might be asking a little too much. I'd settle for an authoritarian son-of-a-bitch as long as he was our son-of-a-bitch.
| 15 |
ORD neighbor Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:21:37am |
Should have "done" Iran long ago. But no use crying over spilled milk. Afghanistan supply logistics do not look good. Neither does Pakistan stability. Putin&Co keep rumbling and acting up. "Interesting times".
| 16 |
Leonidas Hoplite Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:21:41am |
Well, maybe some places and cultures cannot be transformed, they are just too entrenched in an absurd way of life.
Like France.
| 18 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:21:52am |
The good news is that Pakistan is finally getting serious they have a horrid civil war on.
| 19 |
Golem Akbar Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:21:56am |
I hope he's wrong. I fear he's right. Yon knows stuff.
| 20 |
Shinken Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:22:12am |
[Link: www.thesun.co.uk...]
EVIL al-Qaeda chiefs are raping young male converts to shame them into becoming suicide bombers, it emerged yesterday.
This supplements the article I posted last night in another thread
[Link: www.news.com.au...]
A WOMAN suspected of recruiting more than 80 female suicide bombers has confessed to organising their rapes so she could later convince them that martyrdom was the only way to escape the shame.
| 22 |
Racer X Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:22:26am |
What is our objective in Afghanistan?
Serious question.
| 23 |
jwb7605 Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:23:17am |
re: #10 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)
I can easily see Barry doing what he can to undercut the military in order to humble the US before the rest of the world.
I disagree.
I think Obama actually believes the "speak softly" stuff.
His goal is to dominate and subjugate American politics. His second goal is to get the world to follow him. He is power-centric, and he thinks his approach will actually work.
He is truly inexperienced and bases his approach on the Chicago community.
| 24 |
Honorary Yooper Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:23:29am |
re: #17 buzzsawmonkey
The left may be nostalgic for the Depression, but if they keep up on this economic course (pissing off our largest trading partner and other things), they will create a Depression and have to own it a la Herbert Hoover and Smoot-Hawley.
| 27 |
Sharmuta Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:24:44am |
At one point in time Afghanistan had a better educated population, including women. But between the Soviets and the Taliban, many of the more educated Afghanis left for more hospitable environments. This left a gaping hole that the Taliban devastated even more, and will take a very long time to correct, and even longer if the West does nothing to help.
I'm depressed that Mr. Yon is pessimistic, and perhaps he's right. Afghanistan may never be a tree. But if we leave them now, will there even be a bush?
| 28 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:24:46am |
A re: #22 Racer X
What is our objective in Afghanistan?
Serious question.
A stable non islamist government.
| 29 |
Desert Dog Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:25:06am |
Afghanistan is pre-industrial. If we want to win hearts and minds, we should be building stuff.....power plants, water treatment, schools, roads. That would be money well spent in the long run. In the short run, we have to do something about the Taliban in Pakistan. They are "safe" there and will not go away until either the Pakistani government does something (which I highly doubt they will) or WE do something. Obama's call to invade Pakistan was met with laughs and criticisms, but what else can we do? They will stay there and continue to attack across the border indefinitely. And, they will continue to grow in strength on the Pakistan side of the border too. Do we want a Nuclear Taliban-type government in control in Islamabad?
| 30 |
Leonidas Hoplite Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:25:09am |
re: #22 Racer X
What is our objective in Afghanistan?
Serious question.
At a minimum prevent it from becoming a training ground for terrorists. Ideally a liberal democracy (not Liberal). Success in my mind is somthing in between, even if it skews toward the minimum.
| 31 |
Racer X Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:25:28am |
re: #20 Shinken
[Link: www.thesun.co.uk...]
EVIL al-Qaeda chiefs are raping young male converts to shame them into becoming suicide bombers, it emerged yesterday.
This supplements the article I posted last night in another thread
[Link: www.news.com.au...]
A WOMAN suspected of recruiting more than 80 female suicide bombers has confessed to organising their rapes so she could later convince them that martyrdom was the only way to escape the shame.
There is a special place in Hell.
| 32 |
Honorary Yooper Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:25:44am |
re: #26 buzzsawmonkey
Au contraire; they will blame Bush and the Republicans for the depression, and tout themselves as the Second Coming of Roosevelt.
They'll try, but even Roosevelt could conduct a war. Obama's more like Jimmy Carter in that regard.
| 33 |
notutopia Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:25:55am |
Yon's posting is personally insightful and poetic in nature. He describes the historic culture being unchangeable. Until Pakistan is simultaneously rid of insurgents, I believe he is correct in his belief that Afghanistan is a lost cause to battle by itself.
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notutopia Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:26:56am |
| 35 |
joncelli Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:27:35am |
re: #22 Racer X
To keep it from being a launching ground for terrorism. As such, we might be better off abandoning attempts at democracy there.
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subsailor68 Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:27:40am |
re: #24 Honorary Yooper
The left may be nostalgic for the Depression, but if they keep up on this economic course (pissing off our largest trading partner and other things), they will create a Depression and have to own it a la Herbert Hoover and Smoot-Hawley.
That's completely right. On a very dim bright side (in keeping with your point):
President Obama to water down 'Buy American' plan after EU trade war threat
Not that I'm saying he - or anyone around him - has read "The Forgotten Man".
| 37 |
Racer X Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:27:46am |
| 38 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:27:55am |
Somalia is another irremediable basket case.
| 39 |
Pooncakes, Hero of Zion Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:28:14am |
re: #11 Westward Ho
The US Army in the last half of the 20th century has emphasized airborne training as a carreer builder, not just for enlisted, but is officer corps as well. The mindset is that if need be, we can fight completely surrounded. With the helicopter and precision bombing we can rely on our overwhelming firepower and flexibility - not just infantry. So long as the Air Force can deliver ammo and food, we're set. The Taliban have tried mass attacks on some of our more isolated outposts - they paid a huge human toll like the Chinese army did a half-century ago.
I really don't see the Taliban challenging us for air supremacy. The only thing they can do is make our logistics more expensive.
| 40 |
Jimmah Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:29:14am |
re: #27 Sharmuta
I agree. We can't walk away from this one. This may be a time to reassess strategies, but not the overall aim.
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albusteve Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:29:45am |
re: #29 Desert Dog
Afghanistan is pre-industrial. If we want to win hearts and minds, we should be building stuff.....power plants, water treatment, schools, roads. That would be money well spent in the long run. In the short run, we have to do something about the Taliban in Pakistan. They are "safe" there and will not go away until either the Pakistani government does something (which I highly doubt they will) or WE do something. Obama's call to invade Pakistan was met with laughs and criticisms, but what else can we do? They will stay there and continue to attack across the border indefinitely. And, they will continue to grow in strength on the Pakistan side of the border too. Do we want a Nuclear Taliban-type government in control in Islamabad?
seize Paki's nukes
| 43 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:30:35am |
re: #37 Racer X
We will find out very quickly if your justifiable pessimism is warranted.
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RickatLandstuhl Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:31:02am |
Everyone should support Michael Yon and his work. He has been on the money and has done the US Army, et al, a great service.
FOX news is talking about VPOTUS Cheney's remarks. It should get fun now. Oh, and more POTUS O whining...
| 46 |
WitchDoctor Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:31:23am |
re: #29 Desert Dog
"Do we want a Nuclear Taliban-type government in control in Islamabad?"
The problem of course, is that serious intervention on our part may actually bring about the islamist government which we fear most. It's a dirty nasty situation caused by corrupt governments (no not our democrats, those lovable scamps!) and islam, islam, islam. I don't see any easy way out of this but another and stronger sharif-type. Glad it's not my country.
| 47 |
Desert Dog Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:31:52am |
re: #39 Pooncakes, Hero of Zion
They cannot challenge us at all militarily. All they can do is what they are doing now. Snipping at our heels, causing delays in supplies, hit and run operations. What concerns me is their political power. They are not going away anytime soon as long as they have safe haven in the border regions of Pakistan. We have to make being friends with the Taliban painful to the people living there. Let them know there are consequences for choosing the wrong side.
| 48 |
XMarine Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:32:07am |
Sometimes I think that we should build a 20 kilometer high fence all round the Middle East, excepting Israel ... then fill it with water.
| 49 |
Sharmuta Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:32:24am |
re: #33 notutopia
Afghanistan was more advanced before the Soviets and taliban devastated the little economy they did have and completely obliterated the education system. Women attended university before the taliban, and now there's an entire generation or two of uneducated women. "Educate a woman and you educate a family." Bringing back women's rights in Afghanistan is key.
Afghanistan could improve, given enough time, but they won't if they're abandoned, and it's likely they'll never be any sort of regional economic power house, but I would think any improvement from taliban conditions would be welcomed.
| 50 |
Honorary Yooper Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:32:26am |
re: #36 subsailor68
That's completely right. On a very dim bright side (in keeping with your point):
President Obama to water down 'Buy American' plan after EU trade war threat
Not that I'm saying he - or anyone around him - has read "The Forgotten Man".
It was my point exactly. The Dems seem hell-bent on startign a trade war.
BTW, "The Forgotten Man" is on my wish list.
| 51 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:33:15am |
re: #39 Pooncakes, Hero of Zion
I hope so pooncakes & I do not share the pessimism of Yon, Iraq was far worse a year ago.
| 52 |
subsailor68 Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:33:37am |
re: #50 Honorary Yooper
It was my point exactly. The Dems seem hell-bent on startign a trade war.
BTW, "The Forgotten Man" is on my wish list.
Yep, I got it the minute I read your post. And BTW, you're gonna absolutely love The Forgotten Man!
:-)
| 53 |
Westward Ho Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:35:28am |
re: #42 buzzsawmonkey
LOL! And that meeting would resemble a Viking parliament.
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albusteve Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:35:30am |
neither of these countries have the guts or the wherewithal to deal with militant Islam...they are militant Isalm...
it'a all about the nukes...what happens to the nukes?...I really dont want to see Americans dying for a lost cause and Pakistan is a lost cause...imo
| 55 |
DaddyG Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:35:51am |
re: #16 Leonidas Hoplite
Well, maybe some places and cultures cannot be transformed, they are just too entrenched in an absurd way of life.
Like France.
Yes, but only with better hygene and more respect for goats.
| 56 |
BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:36:14am |
re: #17 buzzsawmonkey
Actually the Left is nostalgic for two eras; the Depression, because it was the heyday of the unions, of general acceptance of leftwing thought, and of everybody's nose in the government trough. And Vietnam, because it was the time when the current Leftist leaders were young--and because they believe that their papier-mache puppets changed the world.
No coincidence that these, aside from The Civil War, were the two most traumatic periods of American history.
| 57 |
nyc redneck Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:38:38am |
afghanistan is such a desolate, poor backward country.
i think the life expectancy there is 42 yrs.
it appears that yon is affected by the misery he is witnessing. not that his opinion isn't accurate and valid. afghanistan is a failed county. yon seems to think cutting our losses there is the thing to do. what an unsettling thought.
the afghan people suffered terribly under the alquaeda jihadis.
and those assholes are watching and waiting to move back in.
how bleak.
O doesn't need need much encouragement to run away from problems.
what a bad time to have such a person as potus.
| 58 |
eon Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:38:43am |
re: #4 Dark_Falcon
Could that be the idea? Could Obama be setting the Army up to fail? I think it possible, but I would like to hear from you folks.
As I've already stated, I expect Obama to punt on Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. Put simply, he has a legalistic view of the world that blames us for the existence of Islamist radicalism; the "root causes" theory of criminal motivation applied (incorrectly) to the motivations of homicidal Utopians. His "nation building instead of war making" ideas are essentially those that Bush 41 and Clinton tried in Somalia, with catastrophic results.
That said, when we originally intervened in Afghanistan in the Reagan years, we left after the Soviets were forced to retreat- leaving the country to fall to the Taliban, and encouraging bin Laden to believe that we could be cowed into submission. The result was 9/11.
If the countryside can be secured, specifically the mountains along the Pakistani and Iranian borders which are the enemy's main support areas, a long-term "hearts and minds" campaign with infrastructure creation is possible. But from all indications, Obama will go for the latter without bothering with the former. The last time we made that error, the result was called Haiti.
But Haiti was only a threat to is neighbor on Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic. A resurgently radical Islamist Afghanistan, while of no real ability to be a threat itself, would be a useful "crossroads" for the radical axis of the Islamic world, from Iran to Pakistan and beyond. After all, we're talking about the area that has been the crossroads of trade since before the time of the Romans.
And I don't see much in The One's "strategy" that would prevent it.
I would also point out that infrastructure can come back to bite you. The British Army under Marshal Wade built the road that Bonnie Prince Charlie used to move from the Highlands on London in 1745. (He was only stopped at Derby, 130 miles from the capital- and that was by an argument with his supporters, not the British.) And in June 1975, Highway 1, the road that the NVA rolled their tank divisions down from the DMZ to take Saigon, was built by the French in the late 1940s to facilitate commerce going south from their colonial capital in French Indochina- Hanoi.
/Before you build a road, Barry, you'd better make damned sure that you can hold on to it.
cheers
eon
| 59 |
Pooncakes, Hero of Zion Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:39:38am |
Korea was a backwards peasant society that had been dominated by foreign powers for centuries. It was a bone between Japan, China, and Russia. It remained authoritarian and backward decades after American involvement - it was that way until the late '70s and then WHAM. Economic and democratic miracle. The parallel may not quite fit Afghanistan, because the Koreans have a good work ethic, love education, and value the nuclear family. My point is more that transforming a society takes generations. The emphasis should be put on using the Afghan National Army as a tool of social transformation.
| 60 |
soxfan4life Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:39:43am |
re: #48 XMarine
Sometimes I think that we should build a 20 kilometer high fence all round the Middle East, excepting Israel ... then fill it with
watersewageFixed it for you.
| 61 |
bulwrk Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:41:00am |
re: #57 nyc redneck
O doesn't need need much encouragement to run away from problems.
what a bad time to have such a person as potus.
Lots of second graders will be getting visits from POTUS in the next 4 years I'm afraid.
| 62 |
BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:44:13am |
re: #59 Pooncakes, Hero of Zion
Korea was a backwards peasant society that had been dominated by foreign powers for centuries. It was a bone between Japan, China, and Russia. It remained authoritarian and backward decades after American involvement - it was that way until the late '70s and then WHAM. Economic and democratic miracle. The parallel may not quite fit Afghanistan, because the Koreans have a good work ethic, love education, and value the nuclear family. My point is more that transforming a society takes generations. The emphasis should be put on using the Afghan National Army as a tool of social transformation.
Korea isn't a member of the ummah, either.
| 63 |
Sharmuta Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:44:32am |
And when I say Afghanistan was more advanced pre-taliban, I in no way mean by western standards, but they did allow girls and women an education, and societies that allow that tend to be better off than countries where women are prevented from acquiring an education.
| 64 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:44:48am |
I never expected Afghanistan to turn into a modern democracy, but I don't think it's out of the question (still) for it to be at least sub-horrible. Our primary goal there should be to make it clear that we will smash anyone uses it as a base to attack us. Our secondary goal should be to continue building conditions for at least a decent (or sub-horrible) country to pull together.
| 65 |
Pooncakes, Hero of Zion Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:45:35am |
re: #57 nyc redneck
The way some of the Pashtuns treat theirchildren is unfathomably cruel. The Tajiks and Hazaras are decent peoples. The Pastunwali code of "Lots of sons, and lots of guns" is a recipe for barbarism.
| 66 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:46:32am |
re: #65 Pooncakes, Hero of Zion
The way some of the Pashtuns treat theirchildren is unfathomably cruel. The Tajiks and Hazaras are decent peoples. The Pastunwali code of "Lots of sons, and lots of guns" is a recipe for barbarism.
Amazing that the phrase even rhymes in Pashtun!
/
| 68 |
FurryOldGuyJeans Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:49:49am |
Pelosi and Reid kept screaming the war was lost in Iraq with Bush in charge. They were wrong about the country and the CinC.
| 69 |
rexatosis Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:52:13am |
Afghanistan is essentially still stuck in the eighth century, it has no real infrastructure. Our objective in Afghanistan is simple: Whack the crap out of the Taliban/Al-Q types as soon as they pop their heads out of whatever cave or hole they are in. Anyone thinking we can drag Afghanistan into the 21st Century within our lifetime is deluding themselves (this is essentially why the United States attempted to hand over Afghanistan to NATO--to spread the cost of the "Whack-a-mole" strategy across the West--unfortunately too many of the European contingents were/are fat, drunk, and pathetically out of shape for the job. A problem the Canadians have bitterly complained about since they along with the US and GB have had to do almost all of the heavy lifting in this campaign).
| 70 |
realwest Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:53:05am |
Well I made a comment over there at Yon's blog but it didn't get published and with Charles throwing out threads at such a rapid rate, I won't repeat the entire post, but the essentials are these: WE only went into Afghanistan to find and "bring to justice" first bin Laden and then Sheik Omar. I believe that's been accomplished. And we did it using SHOCK AND AWE and recruiting Afghani's to fight the Taliban, while we killed Al-Q's fighters by the truck load, particularly in Tora-Bora. Then we let NATO take over and NATO wasn't quite so interested in finishing off the Taliban as we were. But frankly, we won in Iraq for a lot of reasons, NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH WAS that the Iraqi people had had enough of Al-Q and the "foreign fighters" killing Iraqi's. Thus the Iraqi's started actually helping the US find Al-Q and indeed started killing them on their own.
Unless and until the Afghani people demonstrate that THEY don't want the Taliban, I don't think we have any business at all "nation building" in Afghanistan.
| 72 |
realwest Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:56:17am |
re: #64 Occasional Reader
Hey O.R. - I wrote comment #1086 on the DT to you.
I was rushing as Charles had already put up yet another thread, and there are spelling errors and grammatical errors galore, but I still think the main thurst came through and, because I respect your opinon, I'd appreciate it if you'd read it.
| 73 |
Pooncakes, Hero of Zion Wed, Feb 4, 2009 9:58:13am |
For those of you not familiar with pashtunwali, it's another layer of the onion that has to be dealt with. Islam is not monolithic, there are cultures underneath it that create additional complications. My pie-in-the-sky idea would be to use the military discipline of an institution like the ANA to beat the bad parts of Pashtunwali and Sharia out of them, and hope it takes hold in society at large. It worked in Turkey. The other thing the locals respond to is us knowing a few phrases in Dari or Pashtu. As many tasks as our soldiers now have, mandatory language training may not be a bad idea.
| 74 |
mfarmer1 Wed, Feb 4, 2009 10:09:17am |
re: #69 rexatosis
Afghanistan is essentially still stuck in the eighth century, it has no real infrastructure. Our objective in Afghanistan is simple: Whack the crap out of the Taliban/Al-Q types as soon as they pop their heads out of whatever cave or hole they are in. Anyone thinking we can drag Afghanistan into the 21st Century within our lifetime is deluding themselves (this is essentially why the United States attempted to hand over Afghanistan to NATO--to spread the cost of the "Whack-a-mole" strategy across the West--unfortunately too many of the European contingents were/are fat, drunk, and pathetically out of shape for the job. A problem the Canadians have bitterly complained about since they along with the US and GB have had to do almost all of the heavy lifting in this campaign).
Bingo. Just bomb the crap out of the jihadis in *.stan from time to time with Predators or whatever and get our guys out of those shit-holes. Afghanistan/Pakistan and those nasty "tribal regions" (that about sums it up there) aren't worth one more American life or taxpayer dollar for nation building. Let them live like the primitives they are and keep them perpetually in that state since they apparently prefer that anyway.
| 75 |
Peacekeeper Wed, Feb 4, 2009 10:20:26am |
Afghanistan is a gaunt, thorny bush, subsisting on little more than sips of humidity from the dry air. We imagined that we could make the bush into a tree, as if straw could be spun into gold or rocks transmuted to flowers. If we continue to imagine that we can turn the thorny bush into a tree, eventually we will realize the truth, but only after much toil, blood and gold are laid under the bush, as if such fertilizer would turn a bush into a tree. We did not make Afghanistan what it is. Afghanistan has existed for thousands of years. It grows the way it grows because the bush drops seeds that make more bushes, never trees.
It's all bush's fault?
| 76 |
nigella Wed, Feb 4, 2009 10:27:39am |
I admire Michael Yon. He was so right about Iraq, when all around him cried the war is lost. I only wish he was wrong on this one, but sadly with Obama in charge I fear the worst.
| 79 |
thefallingman Wed, Feb 4, 2009 11:02:29am |
I just finished reading Afghanistan: A Military History From Alexander The Great To The Fall Of The Taliban by Stephen Tanner and Afghanistan: A Short History of Its People and Politics by Martin Ewans and, unfortuantely, I think Mr. Yon may be correct.
| 80 |
funky chicken Wed, Feb 4, 2009 11:16:28am |
re: #3 jwb7605
That is the most pessimistic article I've ever read from Michael Yon.
I hope he's just depressed.
My husband's been there several times. Yon's right, as usual. There isn't much of an upside to keeping our people in Afghanistan, unfortunately. Well, unfortunately for the folks we force to stay over there and put their lives and health at risk for an impossible dream.
| 82 |
mfarmer1 Wed, Feb 4, 2009 11:42:57am |
re: #81 funky chicken
+1
my updinger is broken
I think it's just a little bug. Once you login, go back to the LGF homepage, and then back again to this thread for example. Your dingers should be ok then. We need healthy and robust dingers.
| 83 |
J'accuzzi Wed, Feb 4, 2009 12:04:19pm |
Both premises, that of defeat, that of victory, are silly. The idea that one of the richest countries in the world cannot manipulate, at the very least, the non-Pashtun minority within the 30 million people of the poorest, most friendless, country in the world into an accommodation that would satisfy its foreign policy objectives boggles the mind.
| 84 |
Athos Wed, Feb 4, 2009 1:00:34pm |
re: #70 realwest
Well I made a comment over there at Yon's blog but it didn't get published and with Charles throwing out threads at such a rapid rate, I won't repeat the entire post, but the essentials are these: WE only went into Afghanistan to find and "bring to justice" first bin Laden and then Sheik Omar. I believe that's been accomplished. And we did it using SHOCK AND AWE and recruiting Afghani's to fight the Taliban, while we killed Al-Q's fighters by the truck load, particularly in Tora-Bora. Then we let NATO take over and NATO wasn't quite so interested in finishing off the Taliban as we were. But frankly, we won in Iraq for a lot of reasons, NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH WAS that the Iraqi people had had enough of Al-Q and the "foreign fighters" killing Iraqi's. Thus the Iraqi's started actually helping the US find Al-Q and indeed started killing them on their own.
Unless and until the Afghani people demonstrate that THEY don't want the Taliban, I don't think we have any business at all "nation building" in Afghanistan.
Good points all. Key to them are the basic facts that our NATO allies, with the exception of primarily the Brits and Canadians, have been far less than allies in their efforts to fight in Afghanistan. They don't frankly care about Afghanistan - and fundamentally, we should demonstrate the same attitude regarding the failed and outdated North Atlantic alliance. The Cold War is over and we should stop manning the walls for them at this point. Let them stand that post.
But most importantly is that Afghanistan is less a country than a collection of tribes and warlords. The people for the most part don't know or understand how shitty their life is and seem that, unless motivated by the mad mullahs that their fate is because of their lack of devotion, unwilling to really think outside their own tribe and village to change things. Now, if it were several centuries ago and these people were unable to project force beyond their immediate region, it would be easy to say let them just stew in the pot of their own making. But today - that would only provide a sanctuary for islamofascist terrorists to develop their plans to expand islam via the sword - capitalizing on the weakness of the liberal west.
We have no option but to try to do in Afghanistan what was done in Iraq - to show and motivate the people that life can be better outside of the strict dominance of the mad mullahs and by accepting and learning to live with the fundamental rights they have been denied. But to do this, we need to do more - especially fight and weaken the islamists and warlords militarily, politically, and economically. It is nation building because this isn't and hasn't been a nation.
We can't act as if this is just something to posture our way through or tip toe our way through. Allies are needed as well - but they have to be all the way in just like us. If not - then they aren't our friends....and we need to either do it ourselves or leave knowing full well that at some point, the cesspool will need cleanup once again.
| 85 |
Render Wed, Feb 4, 2009 2:55:34pm |
For the better part of two years I have been saying, writing, and posting on various blogs, including here, that we need to either evacuate Afghanistan or invade Pakistan.
LOGISTICS
LOGISTICS
LOGISTICS,
R
| 86 |
Sosigado Wed, Feb 4, 2009 7:31:23pm |
Interesting take by Yon. It would seem that pessimism is highly contagious these days.
| 87 |
Pooncakes, hero of Zion Thu, Feb 5, 2009 3:12:42am |
re: #84 Athos
Good points all. Key to them are the basic facts that our NATO allies, with the exception of primarily the Brits and Canadians, have been far less than allies in their efforts to fight in Afghanistan. They don't frankly care about Afghanistan - and fundamentally, we should demonstrate the same attitude regarding the failed and outdated North Atlantic alliance. The Cold War is over and we should stop manning the walls for them at this point. Let them stand that post.
Don't forget the Australians. Magnificent soldiers. Other than that the point is valid, NATO is 19 years beyond its shelf life.
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