The Ron Paul Tea Parties

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I know a lot of people want to deny it, but statistics posted and analyzed at fivethirtyeight.com show a strong correlation between attendance at tea parties and support for crazy uncle Ron Paul: Were the Tea Parties Really a Libertarian Thing?

What we seem to have is an audience that was about two parts Ron Paul/libertarian conservative (with its strength out West and in New Hampshire) and one part Sarah Palin/red-meat conservative (with its strength in rural areas, particularly in the South). This is perhaps not an accident, since Paul and Palin are just about the only Republicans to have generated some real grassroots enthusiasm over the past few years.

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231 comments
1 redc1c4  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:03:46am

they were the minority at the one in Van Nuys, at least amongst the placcard wavers.

datum point, not data

2 Sharmuta  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:04:11am

I wonder if the tea parties are going to be able to maintain the momentum or if they’ll peter out.

3 Emerald  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:05:23am

It wouldn’t surprise me. It fits in with their tactics. They flooded online polls to create support for their candidate during the election; they’re now tapping into public anger to try to create support.

4 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:05:43am

This is not a poll of people - it is a poll of 2008 campaign contributions.

How does this prove or disprove anything?

5 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:06:52am

I don’t doubt that some of them were run by the Paulians, but not the ones around here (Dallas-Fort Worth area).

6 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:07:33am

At the NYC tea party there were thousands of decent patriotic Americans and maybe 2 dozen Paulians who were consigned to the back of the demonstration and were essentially ignored by all of us. I told them that Paul was a nut.

7 songbird  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:08:04am

I’m very disappointed in this because it will discredit the tea party movement. Ron Paul is a loon.

Why am I interested? I was the local organizer for our tea party. It is supposed to be a non partisan taxpayer’s movement, not a libertarian cause.

8 nikis-knight  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:08:05am

Why would this surprise anybody? Of course libertarians are the most upset; they are the furthest ideologically from Obama’s statist push (even if Paul personally has many poor qualities). The news is that so many other tax payers say fit to join in.

9 Killgore Trout  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:08:12am

I saw this the other day. I am pretty convinced that the Tea Parties are a Paulian movement that regular conservatives are joining. Nonsense about the Fair Tax, “End the Fed” and bizarre interpretations of the Constitution seems pretty common. However, Paulians are so full of shit that I have some doubts about his statistics.

10 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:08:48am

re: #6 Joel

At the NYC tea party there were thousands of decent patriotic Americans and maybe 2 dozen Paulians who were consigned to the back of the demonstration and were essentially ignored by all of us. I told them that Paul was a nut.

The Paulians should, in no uncertain terms, be told they’re not welcome.

11 arethusa  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:08:55am

There were also a bunch of protests at Federal Reserve branches last weekend, also the work on Ron Paulies, again not well reported.

12 freedomplow  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:09:32am

Streeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetch

13 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:10:07am

re: #9 Killgore Trout

I saw this the other day. I am pretty convinced that the Tea Parties are a Paulian movement that regular conservatives are joining. Nonsense about the Fair Tax, “End the Fed” and bizarre interpretations of the Constitution seems pretty common. However, Paulians are so full of shit that I have some doubts about his statistics.

The Fair Tax leeches are trying to latch on and steer the discussion on taxes.

14 Killgore Trout  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:10:17am

re: #2 Sharmuta

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

15 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:10:36am

re: #11 arethusa

There were also a bunch of protests at Federal Reserve branches last weekend, also the work on Ron Paulies, again not well reported.

Kooks.

16 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:10:56am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

Taxes are a low priority? Who are these “most” people you speak of?

17 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:11:23am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

At least until we have to start paying for all this spending.

18 Killgore Trout  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:11:25am

re: #11 arethusa

Thanks for posting that. I wasn’t aware of those and I’ve been following the Tea Party thing pretty closely.

19 Liberal Classic  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:11:28am

While I don’t believe libertarians may claim a monopoly on limited government and lower taxes, I think the tea parties demonstrated that there exists some moderate libertarian leanings in middle America.

20 lincolntf  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:11:33am

Guess all the ones that Lizards personally attended (including my own) were exceptions to the rule. Neither Paul nor Palin was mentioned by any of the speakers in the 90 minutes-plus I was there. At least 2,000 people and not a single sign with either name.

21 GeicoGecko  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:03am

re: #2 Sharmuta

I wonder if the tea parties are going to be able to maintain the momentum or if they’ll peter out.

“It’s hard to talk when you’re teabagging.”
-Anderson Cooper

22 Killgore Trout  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:08am

re: #16 loppyd

Ramsussen, gallup, etc have polls.

23 Ice-9  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:22am

This shouldn’t be all that surprising. The Ronulans had already staked out the tea party grounds by having them last year, too.

24 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:41am

re: #10 Ward Cleaver


Well I told one female Paulian ( a rather attractive young woman by the way) that I compared the Paulians to the LaRouchites and that both were nutjobs. After i said that she turned away and refused to look at me. It is just plain wrong to say that the tea parties are dominated by Ron paul’s acolytes. The people I spoke to were Reagan Republicans.

25 IslandLibertarian  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:46am

Protesting big government and high taxes is always a libertarian thing.
Ron Paul is just a glitch in the works.

26 Thom  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:52am

“Correlation is not causation”

27 doppelganglander  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:12:52am

re: #4 loppyd

This is not a poll of people - it is a poll of 2008 campaign contributions.

How does this prove or disprove anything?

It doesn’t, really. I don’t find that statistical analysis persuasive. The truth is, there are only two ways of knowing who attended tea parties: counting people who had signs or flair that identify them as belonging to a particular faction (Paulians, nirthers, those who want to see lower taxes, etc.), and self-reporting. Paulians are notorious for gaming online polls, as Emerald points out, and otherwise exaggerating their influence. Of course some of them were there, and some of the tea parties were organized by Paulians, but what I see is a small group trying to claim credit for an event in which they played a minor role.

28 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:13:27am

re: #22 Killgore Trout

Ramsussen, gallup, etc have polls.

Right. Like the ones that say Obama is the most popular president ever.

Get out and talk to people. Don’t scour the internet for Paulian conspiracies and polls that back up your point.

29 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:13:35am

re: #16 loppyd

Excellent!

Taxes, out-of-control spending, betrayal of friends, appeasement of our enemies - these are the real issues.

30 lincolntf  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:13:49am

So Specter just left the GOP? Nice knowing you, asshole.

31 lawhawk  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:13:55am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

I think that’s highly dependent on where you live.

NYC metro area - taxes are a hot topic because they’re being raised all over the place. Ditto for CA. Flyover country? Not so much.

NJ keeps raising property taxes, and those tax hikes eat whatever rebates/refunds/tax cuts promised by the feds. Ditto in NY. Throw in all the misc. fees that they’re imposing, and it’s a major tax hit that saps the disposable income for millions in this area.

32 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:14:31am

OT

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) called Specter’s switcheroo a “defection”

33 Russkilitlover  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:14:55am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

Definitely not in California. From what I saw personally and heard from others around the state, many CA tea parties were focused on the California Gov and Legislature and their $52 BILLION tax increase. People in CA are definitely pissed and hurting with the economy and then the huge tax burden. These are taxes that are affecting the middle class and most economically challenged Californians very painfully.

FYI - Obama’s ridiculous spending WILL result in the same kind of exponential tax increases. The budget/spending is unsustainable.

You really should NOT lump everyone into your one size fits all basket. Come to California if you want to see some tax anger.

34 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:15:00am

re: #22 Killgore Trout

Ramsussen, gallup, etc have polls.

The same polls that claim that 66% of Americans approve of The Messiah’s handling of the job of being Teleprompter of The United States.

35 Leonidas Hoplite  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:15:03am

re: #16 loppyd

Taxes are a low priority? Who are these “most” people you speak of?

The ones that don’t pay any.

36 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:15:12am

And unless a poll is taken of registered voters it’s useless.

37 rightside  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:15:34am

Heads are exploding everywhere. No GOP leadership whatsoever. Paulians railing against intrusive govt. Dogs and cats living together, Mass Hysteria!

38 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:15:47am

re: #36 loppyd

And unless a poll is taken of registered voters it’s useless.

* * * *
Thank you!

39 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:15:51am

re: #35 Leonidas Hoplite

The ones that don’t pay any.

I tend to think they didn’t attend tea parties.

40 rightside  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:16:08am

re: #30 lincolntf

Spectre was never in the GOP, he simply put an R by his name. RINO

41 Shug  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:17:05am

Ron Paul is a nut.

and his followers are even bigger nuts

/ there , I said it

42 songbird  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:17:15am

re: #20 lincolntf

Guess all the ones that Lizards personally attended (including my own) were exceptions to the rule. Neither Paul nor Palin was mentioned by any of the speakers in the 90 minutes-plus I was there. At least 2,000 people and not a single sign with either name.

That’s how our tea party was. No mention of either Paul or Palin. No clear mention of any political party, just of the need to voice our opposition to the over spending and a call for fiscally conservative people to rise up and run for office locally, statewide and federally to replace those who feel entitled to their House or Senate position and who spend like drunken sailors (which I know is an insult to drunken sailors).

I’m moving from this area, and I’m concerned that those who assume the leadership of the tea party movement will go the AFA and Paul route, and that the movement will be totally discredited.

43 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:17:18am

re: #37 rightside

Heads are exploding everywhere. No GOP leadership whatsoever. Paulians railing against intrusive govt. Dogs and cats living together, Mass Hysteria!

* * * *

The fact is the GOP leadership is in the MINORITY, they don’t get to LEAD since they LOST.

They are in rebuilding mode, as losers must rebuild.

44 Russkilitlover  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:17:25am

re: #35 Leonidas Hoplite

The ones that don’t pay any.

KA-CHING! That thar nails it.

46 Killgore Trout  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:17:39am

re: #34 Joel

The same polls that claim that 66% of Americans approve of The Messiah’s handling of the job of being Teleprompter of The United States.

Yeah, that’s another problem. Bush was very unpopular with approval ratings down in the 30’s or high 20’s. Lefties could mobilize marches with 100, 000 people or more. They accomplished absolutely nothing.

47 Leonidas Hoplite  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:17:59am

re: #39 loppyd

I tend to think they didn’t attend tea parties.

You’re right, I was speculating about the ‘most people’ that Kilgore is hanging out with

48 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:18:34am

Oh right according to that great political philosopher Janeane Garafalo we are all a bunch of “tea bagging , ignorant racists who are out to get a Black president”. Horseshit.

49 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:18:59am

re: #47 Leonidas Hoplite

You’re right, I was speculating about the ‘most people’ that Kilgore is hanging out with

Got it. Thanks for the clarification. :)

50 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:19:06am

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs smiling about Specter’s defection and how helpful Specter was in passing Pres. Obama’s “recovery” plan porkulus.

51 KingKenrod  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:19:06am

A correllation between two things does not mean they are necessarily related. It’s basic logic. There’s no question the tea parties attract libertarian types, and that Ron Paul is a libertarian. Does that mean the tea parties are mostly Paul supporters? Maybe. Ron Paul is also a kook, does that mean all or most tea party attendees are kooks? Maybe. There is much better evidence than donation records at the state level.

The REAL (and only proof) necessary is this: who paid for the permits/insurance/security at these rallies, and who organized the speaker lists?

52 KingKenrod  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:19:44am

re: #11 arethusa

There were also a bunch of protests at Federal Reserve branches last weekend, also the work on Ron Paulies, again not well reported.

I read about those and those are REAL kook rallies, no doubt about it.

53 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:20:59am

re: #46 Killgore Trout

Yeah, that’s another problem. Bush was very unpopular with approval ratings down in the 30’s or high 20’s. Lefties could mobilize marches with 100, 000 people or more. They accomplished absolutely nothing.

For all his faults (and he had many) George W. Bush always put the country ahead of poloiitcs. You never herd him whine over unfair press coverage or go after Keith Olbermann and PMSNBC the way The Messiah whines about Rush Limbaugh.

54 Shug  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:21:21am

Maybe it’s because Paulians didn’t have anything else to do on April 15th.

The rest of us were at work or had something better to do. ( I went to a baseball game )

I don’t care what the protest is about : 90% of the people that show up are basically bums

55 rightside  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:21:21am

re: #43 alegrias

I disagree. No one is leading in the GOP. I’ve heard nary a word come from anyone in a leadership role from them.

I understand your point, but I would be in front of a camera daily, pointing out how things are in reality, without the bias of the drive bys.

Now is not the time to sit on one’s hands, and say “well, we’re in the minority, so we’ll just sit here and take it, not say a word.”

56 opnion  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:21:50am

re: #34 Joel

The same polls that claim that 66% of Americans approve of The Messiah’s handling of the job of being Teleprompter of The United States.


Actually , the little bit of a tea party that I witnessed, anger seemed to be directed at the wild spending more than anything else.

57 IslandLibertarian  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:21:51am

To those here saying the Tea Parties were Ron Paul Libertarian organized affairs,
did you attend any of the events?

58 lobosan5  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:22:22am

ahhhh…………………..yeah……………….NO!

59 KenJen  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:23:13am

re: #50 alegrias

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs smiling about Specter’s defection and how helpful Specter was in passing Pres. Obama’s “recovery” plan porkulus.

Gibbs is probably smiling because he just finished his first complete sentence as White House Press secretary./

60 Cato the Elder  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:23:19am

re: #2 Sharmuta

I wonder if the tea parties are going to be able to maintain the momentum or if they’ll peter out.

Petering out is also a form of momentum.

61 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:23:19am

re: #32 alegrias

OT

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) called Specter’s switcheroo a “defection”

“Defection”? That’s like saying he left Cuba. I’d say its more like treason, except that he’s really only switching back (he used to be a Dem, until 1966).

62 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:23:40am

re: #50 alegrias

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs smiling about Specter’s defection and how helpful Specter was in passing Pres. Obama’s “recovery” plan porkulus.

Gibbs is an asshole, too.

63 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:24:10am

re: #54 Shug

Maybe it’s because Paulians didn’t have anything else to do on April 15th.

The rest of us were at work or had something better to do. ( I went to a baseball game )

I don’t care what the protest is about : 90% of the people that show up are basically bums

Really.

Most of the people I saw appeared to be on their lunch hour.

64 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:24:21am

re: #56 opnion

Actually , the little bit of a tea party that I witnessed, anger seemed to be directed at the wild spending more than anything else.

And don’t forget about that Republican politician that got booed when he showed up. I cannot sit by and allow the tens of thousands of loyal Americans who participated to be lumped in with the Paul cult.

65 Cato the Elder  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:24:26am
This is perhaps not an accident, since Paul and Palin are just about the only Republicans to have generated some real grassroots enthusiasm over the past few years.

God save the GOP.

66 avanti  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:24:27am

re: #45 freedomplow

Nate Silver’s estimates of tea party attendance is off by 600,000.


PajamasTV US Turnout: 935,334

Nate is a stickler for accuracy, if PJTV has better stats the the local police, they only need to send them to Nate and he’ll adjust the figures.

67 Shug  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:24:52am

re: #63 loppyd

Really.

Most of the people I saw appeared to be on their lunch hour.


OK.
As always, I am open to the fact that I am 100% off base.

happens a lot

;)

68 redc1c4  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:25:08am

re: #9 Killgore Trout

I saw this the other day. I am pretty convinced that the Tea Parties are a Paulian movement that regular conservatives are joining. Nonsense about the Fair Tax, “End the Fed” and bizarre interpretations of the Constitution seems pretty common. However, Paulians are so full of shit that I have some doubts about his statistics.

there was a collection of “End the Fed” nitwits at Van Nuys….. they were off in the corner, and only a small fraction of the total number of people there.

i did take all the literature i could from them though, and brought it ome to the blue dumpster. %-)

69 medaura18586  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:25:19am

Well,.. I could be safely characterized libertarian-conservative, but I’m no Ron-Paul-bot. I hope those two labels are not being used interchangeably by this study.

70 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:25:21am

re: #63 loppyd

Really.

Most of the people I saw appeared to be on their lunch hour.

The people I saw were working people who showed up after work.

71 avanti  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:25:53am

re: #59 KenJen

Gibbs is probably smiling because he just finished his first complete sentence as White House Press secretary./

One thing he’s smiling about is the Spector news is driving the AF 1 story off the radar.

72 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:25:59am

re: #67 Shug

It’s all good.

73 jcm  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:26:20am

re: #31 lawhawk

I think that’s highly dependent on where you live.

NYC metro area - taxes are a hot topic because they’re being raised all over the place. Ditto for CA. Flyover country? Not so much.

NJ keeps raising property taxes, and those tax hikes eat whatever rebates/refunds/tax cuts promised by the feds. Ditto in NY. Throw in all the misc. fees that they’re imposing, and it’s a major tax hit that saps the disposable income for millions in this area.

WA managed to pass a budget with no new taxes.

The took the one time stimulus package and other one time funding sources along with some cuts to pass a balanced budget.

However they kicked the the $8 Billion dollar deficit down the road 2 years instead of actually doing anything substantive about the structure problems in state government that caused the deficit in the first place.

74 monkey den  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:26:32am

There is certainly a libertarian (small “L”) component to it. My ideal Republican candidate does have some libertarian views, though I consider myself just a disgruntled conservative and don’t associate myself with Libertarians (big “L”).

75 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:26:35am

re: #65 Cato the Elder

God save the GOP.

And how much votes did Ron Paul get in the primaries? Probably less then Dennis Kucinich.

76 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:27:02am

re: #70 Joel

The people I saw were working people who showed up after work.

The Boston party was on the State House steps at noon.

I’m sure the Dem staffers were threatened to stay away.

77 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:27:09am

re: #55 rightside

I disagree. No one is leading in the GOP. I’ve heard nary a word come from anyone in a leadership role from them.

I understand your point, but I would be in front of a camera daily, pointing out how things are in reality, without the bias of the drive bys.

Now is not the time to sit on one’s hands, and say “well, we’re in the minority, so we’ll just sit here and take it, not say a word.”

* * * *
As I said, they’re in regrouping mode. They don’t get to make the news, and when they do they are called “party of NO”.
They’re saying plenty, but you’re not listening nor being supportive. That’s not exactly helpful when they need a surge.

78 Eowyn2  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:27:19am

There are pretty graphs and lots of numbers but there are no comparative donations to other parties.
Where are the comparative McCain/Paul percentages? Primary Vote statistics? etc.

I saw one Paulian in a group of 250 adults. I saw farmers, business people, housewives and not a single troofer.

79 redc1c4  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:28:06am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

going to the one on the 15th was my wife’s first ever political act, besides voting.

she already wants to know when/where the next one is. this may have more legs than you wish to believe.

80 opnion  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:28:17am

re: #64 Joel

And don’t forget about that Republican politician that got booed when he showed up. I cannot sit by and allow the tens of thousands of loyal Americans who participated to be lumped in with the Paul cult.

I just didn’t detect a big Ron Paul turnout, but I really wasn’t there long.
That CNN reporter in Chicago was a sweetheart, huh?

81 Lobosan5  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:28:37am

1….counted….1! paulian @ the Boston tea party protest
& HE was frozen out, ignored.
he left…sign & all.
SORRY, NOT BITING this worm.
GO PATRIOTS!

82 Adrenalyn  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:28:52am

no comment


except, Ron Paul does not speak for or to me

83 lincolntf  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:28:54am

re: #42 songbird

“I’m moving from this area, and I’m concerned that those who assume the leadership of the tea party movement will go the AFA and Paul route, and that the movement will be totally discredited.”

That’s largely why I’m relying entirely on personal experience (and the skeptical measurement of accounts by people with possible agendas) in regard to the Tea Parties. It’s going to be an “Internet flashpoint”, it’s going to attract kooks as well as smears and it’s going to get a load of negative press. I’m not gonna let any of that effect my judgement. I’ll leave it to others to post dueling polls or find articles pro- or con- some point or association. I saw reasonable people discussing important issues in a rational and considered way.

84 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:28:57am

re: #76 loppyd

The Boston party was on the State House steps at noon.

I’m sure the Dem staffers were threatened to stay away.

Of course - in a liberal city like Boston and NYC it takes a certain amount of courage to come out against any of President Urkel’s policies.

85 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:29:27am

re: #75 Joel

And how much votes did Ron Paul get in the primaries? Probably less then Dennis Kucinich.

* * * *
thank you, as if those fake poll numbers of his mattered.

86 gearhead  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:30:10am

Around here, Libertarians were the ones behind the local tea parties. They asked the GOP for its support to get more people to show up. What started out as a good, if vague, idea was co-opted by opportunists, who changed it into something else.

And, of course, opportunists on the side of the Democrats seized the chance to, once again, paint it as a GOP effort and all GOPers as crazies.

87 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:30:24am

re: #80 opnion

I just didn’t detect a big Ron Paul turnout, but I really wasn’t there long.
That CNN reporter in Chicago was a sweetheart, huh?

She was real piece of work (Susan Roesgen I believe is her name). The media’s love affair with President Urkel is as strong as ever.

88 Honorary Yooper  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:31:00am

re: #69 medaura18586

Well,.. I could be safely characterized libertarian-conservative, but I’m no Ron-Paul-bot. I hope those two labels are not being used interchangeably by this study.

Ron Paul claims to be a small government conservative, but his associations would say otherwise, IMHO. Some of them, really don’t seem to follow the classic American conservative model at all. Alex Jones is a big-time 9/11 Troofer, and a major kook who has been on the “right” and the “left”. Stormfront is more of a classic European-rightist group, in the mold of the Nazis, as well as classic hate groups like the KKK, La Raza, and the Black Panthers. I’d say Ron Paul is a neo-Know Nothing based on what I see thus far.

89 medaura18586  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:31:12am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

Speak for yourself… Depends on the tax bracket you’re in. Since the top 10% of the tax-payer base is shouldering over 70% of the tax burden, of course your statement that the majority of Americans are not overburdened with taxes, is correct. That’s because the most productive minority is disproportionally subsidizing the parasitic majority. [Link: www.taxfoundation.org…]

Doesn’t mean those who are carrying the burden don’t have a reason to bitch. Quite the opposite, actually.

90 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:31:20am

re: #85 alegrias

* * * *
thank you, as if those fake poll numbers of his mattered.

Too much time was wasted in the GOP debates with Ron Paul always showing up.

91 Nevergiveup  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:31:28am

Sudden Surge in Corset Sales

[Link: jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com…]

Thanks Jamie

92 Last Mohican  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:31:41am

I again find myself in the position of respectfully dissenting.

The use of the correlation statistic on Five Thirty Eight.com is misleading and, I would argue, invalid. First of all, the selection of the eleven geographical regions seems suspiciously arbitrary to me.

Also, linear regression analyses and correlation statistics are disproportionately driven by outliers. When I look at that graph, the only major findings I see are that (1) in the Big Sky and Southwest regions, people give a lot of money to Ron Paul and also attend Tea Parties in large numbers, and (2) in the so-called “Acela” region, people don’t give much money to Ron Paul, and don’t attend Tea Parties in large numbers. If you take away those three points, there doesn’t appear to be any correlation between giving to Ron Paul and attending Tea Parties. And, indeed, I re-ran the numbers myself. Without those three points, the correlation is 0.07, i.e. there is virtually no correlation at all.

It seems to me that the best way to test the hypothesis that tea party protesters are disproportionately liberatarian would be to actually poll the people attending them. Nobody did that here. Various LGFers have reported a relative absence of people with kooky Paulian signs, which sort of anecdotally gets at the same point, although of course people might be keeping their Paulian leanings to themselves.

Charles and others here have approached the issue another way, by showing that Paulians are among the organizers of the events, regardless of who attends them. I personally have been convinced by that argument.

93 haakondahl  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:31:43am

I suspect that there are several independent movements which converge at the Tea Party mindset.
The problem is that vanilla conservatives will easily be co-opted, their grassroots subverted by the Paulians’ Commie-style tactics. Look at all the different groups in any wacko lefty parade, and see how they all wind up under Int’l ANSWER’s umbrella.

Big Picture: We are going to have to defend our street corner, or be assimilated by thugs.

94 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:12am

re: #73 jcm

WA managed to pass a budget with no new taxes.

The took the one time stimulus package and other one time funding sources along with some cuts to pass a balanced budget.

However they kicked the the $8 Billion dollar deficit down the road 2 years instead of actually doing anything substantive about the structure problems in state government that caused the deficit in the first place.

Here in Texas, we have a balanced budget amendment in the state constitution, so we can’t run deficits.

95 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:12am

Awwww, Arlen Specter gets a microphone.

See, if the GOP wants to be in the news, all they have to do is declare themselves Democrats at the end of their career.

Now Specter is a Statesman worthy of White House invites and tete a tetes.

96 Eowyn2  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:13am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

For the most part, most of the people who attended the tea party here were not so much pissed about taxes but about how the taxes are being spent. they are pissed at the congress’ and senate’s response of “I didnt read the bill before I signed it”

I think the tea parties will become a movement. Hopefully they will not be taken over by ANY party or pac.

97 Adrenalyn  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:14am

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

I disagree on taxes
at least where I am, in Liberalia (formerly California)
we had a 1 point sales tax increase
and a DOUBLING of car registration
as owner of several cars and many motorcycles and boats
I will see a huge increase
fuck 0bama’s $400 “tax cut”
that’s spit in the ocean to me
mere pocket lint to Jed Clampett

98 arethusa  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:16am

re: #52 KingKenrod

I read about those and those are REAL kook rallies, no doubt about it.

Yeah, I walked by one, which is the only reason I knew about them. Detoured to the other side of the street and still had to pass by a bunch of very dedicated “Don’t Tread on Me” flag wielders.

99 Fat Bastard Vegetarian  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:34am

re: #2 Sharmuta

Hey Shar. I think they’ve already petered.

100 lost of earth  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:41am

The number of angry Americans is growing. We/I believe we are loosing our sovereignty and our Constitution is being trashed. The depletion of our savings/retirement accounts is only the tip of the iceberg. Many are angry over the hardship our kids and grandkids will be facing. What will their future be?

101 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:32:48am

re: #84 Joel

Of course - in a liberal city like Boston and NYC it takes a certain amount of courage to come out against any of President Urkel’s policies.

I don’t care what people think anymore.

102 rusty_armor  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:33:21am

Ron Paul is the crazy uncle, but does that mean that if Paul’s supporters support something, I should withdraw my support?

I think all in all, the Tea Parties were a good thing. Who knows if they will have any lasting effect. And who gives a �%! what Paulians do?

~rusty

103 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:33:47am

re: #101 loppyd

Neither do I. I would rather be alone then be amongst a bunch of sanctimonious, intolerant leftists.

104 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:34:06am

Nice of Specter to say extremes of both parties made it necessary for Senator Lieberman to run as an Independent in Connecticut, in order to win a Senate Seat.

The lefties drove Lieberman out of their primary.

105 Liberal Classic  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:34:21am

re: #24 Joel

… I compared the Paulians to the LaRouchites and that both were nutjobs.

Speaking as a libertarian who does not support Ron Paul, I do get the sense there is a cult of personality surrounding him. I don’t think they are as bad as the LaRouche Party, however. To be sure, some of Paul’s supporters are on the fringe. The LaRouche organization is truly cult-like, though. They are thoroughly scary.

106 Kreuzueber Halbmond  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:34:26am

The local tea party was attended by a large number of retired people, including my folks who are bumping 80. It was an outlet for frustration over a government that is becoming dangerously irresponsible with regard to taxation and spending, and burdensome on individual freedom. The fact that some attendees may align themselves with Ron Paul does not speak for the majority of patriotic, good people who showed up.

107 Nevergiveup  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:35:02am

A cult leader jailed for sex attacks on children has escaped in a helicopter from a prison on the French Indian Ocean island of Reunion.

[Link: www.foxnews.com…]

So now there is more room for prisoners from Gitmo? Right?

108 medaura18586  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:35:12am

re: #89 medaura18586

Speak for yourself… Depends on the tax bracket you’re in. Since the top 10% of the tax-payer base is shouldering over 70% of the tax burden, of course your statement that the majority of Americans are not overburdened with taxes, is correct. That’s because the most productive minority is disproportionally subsidizing the parasitic majority. [Link: www.taxfoundation.org…]

Doesn’t mean those who are carrying the burden don’t have a reason to bitch. Quite the opposite, actually.

Huge fuck-up… sorry folks. The situation is even more dire. Top 1% Pay Greater Dollar Amount in Income Taxes to Federal Government than Bottom 90%. I had misinterpreted the brakdown of the numbers. So it’s way above 70% — almost virtually 100%.

109 Fat Bastard Vegetarian  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:35:19am

Guess we’ll see how unified Republicans are in Pennsylvania.

I went to a tea party, saw nothing Luapian there.

Pretty much sez it all for me. But, I’ll probably keep posting.

110 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:35:31am

re: #105 Liberal Classic

Is aw the LaRouchites the other day saying the same vicious things about Urkel that they said about Bush.

111 loftfield  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:35:58am

I am not a Paulian but was at the Jacksonville Tea Party. I did not see anyone there with obvious Ron Paul paraphernalia

112 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:36:26am

PA. Governor Rendell promised Specter if he changed to a democrat, Rendell would help him raise money to run as a Democrat.

Specter said if he became a Democrat, he wouldn’t need money!

(Now Specter will get extra porkulus from the President)

113 Shug  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:36:30am

Can the citizens of Pennsylvania call for a recall of Specter?

It really pisses me off when a politician is elected, and then changes party after the election.

He should lose his job

114 Right mind left  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:36:37am

I would like to believe the majority of Tea Party goers were not protesting their personal tax bill as the MSM was trying to argue as absurd, but the fiscal irresponsibility in general, which should be obvious to all, and protested by all who value capitalistic freedom.

The true concerns should be about our GDP foundation:

Small Businesses Brace for Tax Battle
[Link: www.washingtonpost.com…]

and the new “Going Galt” phenomenon of many investors who are simply pulling out.
[Link: www.pjtv.com…]

There should be agreement with most that something must be done. The question is what. As much as I was happy to see people standing up and doing something, I know that the effort will not produce the necessary results. I keep praying 2010 is not too late to vote in a rip-current to their tidal waves of wrong change.

There is a massive effort by the MSM to cover up the reality of dissent but what is the right thing to do? I don’t want to sit on the sidelines watching this madness in the Admin, House and Senate!

An interesting article talks about a Federalism Amendment, [Link: irishspy.typepad.com…]
but in this climate there is unfortunately no way it could even be discussed rationally. Better ideas? ANYONE?

115 [deleted]  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:36:40am
116 Dianna  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:36:44am

1) It’s always good to know who you might find yourself associated with.

2) No one asked me about my position or opinion when I was at the Tea Party.

3) Those of us who attended who didn’t see dozens of Paul-bots are what?

117 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:36:52am

re: #89 medaura18586

Speak for yourself… Depends on the tax bracket you’re in. Since the top 10% of the tax-payer base is shouldering over 70% of the tax burden, of course your statement that the majority of Americans are not overburdened with taxes, is correct. That’s because the most productive minority is disproportionally subsidizing the parasitic majority. [Link: www.taxfoundation.org…]

Doesn’t mean those who are carrying the burden don’t have a reason to bitch. Quite the opposite, actually.

I wouldn’t say the majority were parasitic, although I’d put a lot of those who pay no taxes in that category. But yes, those are very wealthy pay a disproportionate amount of taxes.

118 ConservatismNow!  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:37:19am

re: #81 Lobosan5

1….counted….1! paulian @ the Boston tea party protest
& HE was frozen out, ignored.
he left…sign & all.
SORRY, NOT BITING this worm.
GO PATRIOTS!

Hey thanks for the QB, LB and GM.

119 Cato the Elder  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:37:37am

re: #108 medaura18586

Huge fuck-up… sorry folks. The situation is even more dire. Top 1% Pay Greater Dollar Amount in Income Taxes to Federal Government than Bottom 90%. I had misinterpreted the brakdown of the numbers. So it’s way above 70% — almost virtually 100%.

Um, just for the sake of argument, could this be because the top 1% make more than 90% of aggregate personal income?

120 Adrenalyn  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:37:39am

re: #108 medaura18586

Huge fuck-up… sorry folks. The situation is even more dire. Top 1% Pay Greater Dollar Amount in Income Taxes to Federal Government than Bottom 90%. I had misinterpreted the brakdown of the numbers. So it’s way above 70% — almost virtually 100%.

yes, yes, yes

but the media is spinning it as
the top X percent of earners
earn Y percent more than before

I forget the figures but they’re ready to spin it as
but the rich are getting richer
and driving that big class wedge in

they only focus on money made, not taxes paid
and lazy Americans will eat it up, to an extent
especially those that don’t pay taxes

121 Lobosan5  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:37:49am

#54 Shug

hey a$$h0le
were you there !?

BUMS! REALLY!?! FkU.

I saw the elderly, teens, babies,working class, downtown business types,
it was a mishkalange….& you clearly were not there.

122 kansas  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:38:13am

re: #21 GeicoGecko

“It’s hard to talk when you’re teabagging.”
-Anderson Cooper

And apparently Anderson Cooper knows.

123 Dianna  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:38:18am

re: #111 loftfield

I am not a Paulian but was at the Jacksonville Tea Party. I did not see anyone there with obvious Ron Paul paraphernalia

I saw three people in regalia; there may have been more, since I’m short and was in the middle of the crowd.

What we’re supposed to make of this report, versus our own experiences, I haven’t a clue.

124 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:38:45am

President Obama will come to Pennsylvania to campaign for Arlen Specter when he runs for Senate.

They’re pulling out all the stops for Specter the Defector.

125 songbird  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:39:07am

re: #83 lincolntf

“I’m moving from this area, and I’m concerned that those who assume the leadership of the tea party movement will go the AFA and Paul route, and that the movement will be totally discredited.”

That’s largely why I’m relying entirely on personal experience (and the skeptical measurement of accounts by people with possible agendas) in regard to the Tea Parties. It’s going to be an “Internet flashpoint”, it’s going to attract kooks as well as smears and it’s going to get a load of negative press. I’m not gonna let any of that effect my judgement. I’ll leave it to others to post dueling polls or find articles pro- or con- some point or association. I saw reasonable people discussing important issues in a rational and considered way.


There are so many reasonable people who are very worried. I had one businessman come to me and say that all this government spending was like a game, and he wanted me to tell him what he needed to do to win and not get wiped out. It is the business sector. the employers, that will be hurt the most by what appears to be a giant move against them. What can we do? The only thing besides our protests is to try to elect new people in who will have the heart and the balls to balance the budget, to repeal pork legislation, and to restore our financial footing as a nation.

What else can we do? With a dem majority which is intent on broadening government benefits and handouts and loosening limits on immigration (illegal mostly) we are in a bad spot.

126 looking closely  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:39:25am
I know a lot of people want to deny it, but statistics posted and analyzed at FiveThirtyEight.com show a strong correlation between attendance at tea parties and support for crazy uncle Ron Paul:


I don’t buy this. Ron Paul received only a vanishingly small number of primary votes in his last national run (for POTUS). If he has such widespread support, why did he come in dead last in every contest involving actual (not virtual electronic) votes?

In terms of *IDEOLOGY*, sure…I believe it.

Lots of so called “conservatives” (and even many moderates) are actually more “libertarian” if you analyze their true political beliefs on the political spectrum. That’s no secret.

But it doesn’t translate into support for kooky Ron-Paulism.

127 NoelArmourson  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:39:45am

I saw little Ron Paul support at the Denver event.

128 Nevergiveup  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:39:55am

re: #124 alegrias

President Obama will come to Pennsylvania to campaign for Arlen Specter when he runs for Senate.

They’re pulling out all the stops for Specter the Defector.

As did President Bush? Can you spell Loyalty or Gratitude? Apparently Specter can’t.

129 Dianna  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:40:13am

re: #114 Right mind left

Well, writing our representatives, and working for a candidate we think has better ideas is the usual response.

But I’m not seeing much effect, that way.

130 opnion  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:40:26am

re: #87 Joel

She was real piece of work (Susan Roesgen I believe is her name). The media’s love affair with President Urkel is as strong as ever.

She went there to debate the crowd. I loved it when she called the crowd ‘Anti CNN” That was a silly comment.

131 looking closely  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:40:39am

re: #114 Right mind left

I would like to believe the majority of Tea Party goers were not protesting their personal tax bill as the MSM was trying to argue as absurd, but the fiscal irresponsibility in general, which should be obvious to all, and protested by all who value capitalistic freedom.


Obviously, this wasn’t about the personal tax bill, because tax rates haven’t changed this last year.

What’s changed? A massive and literally unprecedented expansion of the public sector, under the most spending-prone Congress and Presidential administration in living memory.

132 lawhawk  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:40:41am

re: #73 jcm

NJ is doing something similar. Corzine is claiming that he’s reduced the budget, but he’s really using the fed stimulus package to fill in the gaps, which is an statutorily prohibited one-shot. He’s going to get away with it too. The states are spending more than they can afford, and the porkfest lets them get away with it and pass the buck on to someone else.

133 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:41:11am

re: #130 opnion

She went there to debate the crowd. I loved it when she called the crowd ‘Anti CNN” That was a silly comment.

She was totally unprofessional.Surprised that PMSNBC has not givenher a show yet.

134 Son of the Black Dog  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:41:24am

re: #94 Ward Cleaver

Here in Texas, we have a balanced budget amendment in the state constitution, so we can’t run deficits.

Every state I know of has a balanced budget requirement, and they all seem to circumvent it with great regularity (and chicanery).

135 DaddyG  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:41:31am

re: #94 Ward Cleaver

Here in Texas, we have a balanced budget amendment in the state constitution, so we can’t run deficits.

Same in Georgia. Its a pain to try to get more work done on less budget (which always happens in a down year) but in the long run it is a much better way to run a state. Having to do more with less puts some discipline in the system.

What the Feds are doing scares the crud out of me. The way the stimulus money is going to be administered is a power grab complete with Federal Administrators and Auditors as part of the package.

136 alegrias  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:41:38am

Specter says the Club for Growth caused GOP incumbents to lose.

Whereas “MOVEON.org” is a great group, now that Specter will take their money to campaign in Pennsylvania.

137 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:42:21am

Back to work now…

138 Lobosan5  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:42:44am

re: #118 ConservatismNow!

what this means ‘Hey thanks for the QB, LB and GM.’

139 Shug  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:42:45am

re: #121 Lobosan5

yeah, you sound normal

/

140 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:42:47am

re: #113 Shug

Can the citizens of Pennsylvania call for a recall of Specter?

It really pisses me off when a politician is elected, and then changes party after the election.

He should lose his job

When he was a House member, Phil Gramm switched from the Dems to the GOP. He resigned, and ran in a special election to regain his seat as a Republican (and won). Specter should do the same thing, but he doesn’t have a conscience.

141 Ward Cleaver  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:43:32am

re: #134 Son of the Black Dog

Every state I know of has a balanced budget requirement, and they all seem to circumvent it with great regularity (and chicanery).

Not here.

142 looking closely  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:43:36am

re: #126 looking closely

But it doesn’t translate into support for kooky Ron-Paulism.

And again, to be clear, not EVERYTHING Ron Paul stands for is so crazy.

I hardly think its bizarre to want to reduce the size of the public sector and cut taxes.

Personally, I don’t agree with Paul’s isolationist stance, but that’s another political belief that I don’t think is on its face insane.

143 Dianna  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:44:17am

re: #135 DaddyG

One tiny caveat: I really hesitate to think what would happen without auditors.

144 looking closely  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:45:22am

re: #140 Ward Cleaver

When he was a House member, Phil Gramm switched from the Dems to the GOP. He resigned, and ran in a special election to regain his seat as a Republican (and won). Specter should do the same thing, but he doesn’t have a conscience.


If Specter were aligned to political principle, he wouldn’t be siding with the Democrats all the time. (IE why is he a Republican again?).

If he had any honor, instead of switching political parties, he’d simply not run for re-election.

145 medaura18586  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:46:23am

re: #117 Ward Cleaver

I wouldn’t say the majority were parasitic, although I’d put a lot of those who pay no taxes in that category. But yes, those are very wealthy pay a disproportionate amount of taxes.

I’d put every single person who pays no taxes in the parasitic category. Those who take out a lot more than they chip in, also qualify for the category. It’s not an insult; it’s a descriptive term:

Parasite:

—an animal or plant that lives in or on a host (another animal or plant); it obtains nourishment from the host without benefiting or killing the host

—A (generally undesirable) living organism that exists by stealing the resources produced/collected by another living organism; A person who relies on other people’s efforts and gives little back (originally a sycophant)

re: #119 Cato the Elder

Um, just for the sake of argument, could this be because the top 1% make more than 90% of aggregate personal income?

Not really. Income distribution follows a power-law, but while being pretty inequitable, it’s not nearly as disproportionate as the tax-burden breakdown. That’s because of progressive taxation: if a flat income tax were in place, the top 1% of earners would pay in taxes the same percentage as the bottom 90%, along with everyone else. In that case, the tax-burden breakdown would proportionally reflect the income distribution. But marginal tax rates are much much higher for “the rich.”

[Link: commadot.com…]

146 tfc3rid  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:46:41am

I did not attend any of the Tea Parties…

But I can understand the desire for grassroots populism… What the heck is wrong with that? There are a lot of people in this country who are so angry at the Fiscal Irresponsibility of Republicans and Democrats… This was an opportunity for the people fed up with things to be heard…

The Dems can organize all the time, with ANSWER and all their neo-Commie groups… Do they get hurt by it, no. They get the White House…

This was a great opportunity for people who normally would not do anything of this sort to get out there and feel like a part of the process… Regardless of a few nuts and loons, this type of movement is what the American ideal is all about…

147 Noam Chumpski  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:47:08am

So if Ron Paul celebrates the 4th of July in Baltimore this year, it means that he owns it from now on, across the nation as well?

Bummer.

148 Lobosan5  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:47:22am

re: #139 Shug

whatever

149 jcm  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:47:31am

re: #94 Ward Cleaver

Here in Texas, we have a balanced budget amendment in the state constitution, so we can’t run deficits.

We’re required to have a balanced budget also.

The essentially cooked the books to balance it for this budget.

Next budget will blow up big time. What’s worse they put new programs in to pay political debts, however they didn’t fund them and put start dates on ‘em for ‘10.

“I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” Budget management.

F’in bastards.

150 Fat Bastard Vegetarian  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:47:48am

re: #121 Lobosan5

Well. That was severe. Why would you talk to someone like that?

151 SecondComing  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:48:24am

re: #124 alegrias

President Obama will come to Pennsylvania to campaign for Arlen Specter when he runs for Senate.

They’re pulling out all the stops for Specter the Defector.

Every time I see that I think it says defecator.

152 Right mind left  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:48:58am

re: #129 Dianna

Well, writing our representatives, and working for a candidate we think has better ideas is the usual response.

But I’m not seeing much effect, that way.

Yes. I have written to representatives and get the same response as I see in the MSM, they are mouthing the same “job loss, must do something, big govt is the answer” stuff…and are very close-minded.

I am totally frustrated because 0’s machine is moving fast to pull out all the stops to drain our wealth into the world community. We will be bankrupt and possibly without recourse by election time 2010. Something must be done, but it seems any effort is stifled and steamrolled. A very troubling set of circumstances, causing an upwelling of necessity in me for action. Rational action, but it seems that rational action is viewed as “radical” in this new paradigm.

153 DaddyG  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:52:03am

re: #143 Dianna

One tiny caveat: I really hesitate to think what would happen without auditors.

True Dat. But when the bulk of the stimulus money goes to administrative overhead and not actual shovel ready projects then there is a problem.

154 Cato the Elder  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:52:59am

re: #145 medaura18586

Not really. Income distribution follows a power-law, but while being pretty inequitable, it’s not nearly as disproportionate as the tax-burden breakdown. That’s because of progressive taxation: if a flat income tax were in place, the top 1% of earners would pay in taxes the same percentage as the bottom 90%, along with everyone else. In that case, the tax-burden breakdown would proportionally reflect the income distribution. But marginal tax rates are much much higher for “the rich.”

[Link: commadot.com…]

I have always been attracted to the flat-tax notion. Trouble is, each and every interest group with bought-and-paid-for pols in DC would scream “apocalypse” and whine until their special exemption/deduction/tax credit/rebate schedule got restored.

155 loppyd  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:53:34am

re: #146 tfc3rid

There were a lot of young people at both of the Boston parties which was encouraging.

Really back to work now!

156 SecondComing  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:53:39am

I just heard “The Obama Deception” advertised on Rush. It spoken by a different guy(a commercial voice I’ve heard before I think) this time not Alex Jones. It gave a toll free number and said brought to you by Ho Hum productions and Infowar(s).com.

157 Right mind left  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:53:56am

re: #131 looking closely

Obviously, this wasn’t about the personal tax bill, because tax rates haven’t changed this last year.

What’s changed? A massive and literally unprecedented expansion of the public sector, under the most spending-prone Congress and Presidential administration in living memory.

Absolutely. My comment was about the media reaction, most notably the CNN reporter who tried to explain to the protester that he was getting a tax rebate check so why was he upset! It is moronic but that is how the MSM has been told to focus.

158 Noam Chumpski  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:55:24am

re: #126 looking closely

I don’t buy this. Ron Paul received only a vanishingly small number of primary votes in his last national run (for POTUS). If he has such widespread support, why did he come in dead last in every contest involving actual (not virtual electronic) votes?

All, all of the campaign signs in my Liberal neighborhood were for Ron Paul and he got less than 1% of the district vote. You would have thought he would have garnered 90%.

There are a very small, highly motivated group called Paulians, who like to get in front of cameras and take credit for things they have no part in.

And Palin? Palin had no role or “support” posters at the Atlanta rally. Palin? This guy obviously isn’t from the area, but he likes to assume a lot about us.

159 Eowyn2  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:57:32am

re: #88 Honorary Yooper

Ron Paul claims to be a small government conservative, but his associations would say otherwise, IMHO. Some of them, really don’t seem to follow the classic American conservative model at all. Alex Jones is a big-time 9/11 Troofer, and a major kook who has been on the “right” and the “left”. Stormfront is more of a classic European-rightist group, in the mold of the Nazis, as well as classic hate groups like the KKK, La Raza, and the Black Panthers. I’d say Ron Paul is a neo-Know Nothing based on what I see thus far.

so eloquent and succint

160 MadJadBad  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:58:16am

I’ve been to 2 tea party events. I only saw 1 or 2 Sarah Palin signs and a few Ron Paul signs. The vast majority of the signs had to do with government spending.

My reason for going was primarily curiosity. I just wanted to check it out. Secondarily, I’m concerned about govt over spending. I always have been. I have considered becoming a Libertarian because the GOP has really dropped the ball on the budget. The last thing they did that really got me excited was Newt and the contract with America. The problem I have with the Libertarian party is that their candidates have been no better than the Republican candidates.

BTW, I’m not a red meat republican (whatever that’s supposed to imply), I prefer poultry, unless pizza or lasagna qualify as red meat.

161 FabioC.  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:58:48am

Statistical correlation is the last refuge of the scoundrel.
No, the saying is not exactly like that but it’s fitting.

The article takes on one hand the contributions to Ron Paul’s campaign (aggregated per political region), on the other the attendance to Tea Parties, and calculates a correlation between those finding 0.65.

And that is supposed to be proof of what, exactly?
With standards like these one has to accept the infamous Lancet sutdy on Iraqi civilian deaths, and Mann’s Hockey Stick as incontestable.

162 capitalist piglet  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:59:16am

re: #117 Ward Cleaver

I wouldn’t say the majority were parasitic, although I’d put a lot of those who pay no taxes in that category. But yes, those are very wealthy pay a disproportionate amount of taxes.


And yet, my best friend’s teen daughter recently came home from school saying, “We’ve got to start making the rich pay their fair share in this country!” (Her dad is an engineer and makes a good living, but he’s not rich. He is, however, conservative, so he gave her the whoa!-back-that-truck-up talk.)

How many times have we heard that line from one source or another? Why is there so little understanding of this?

163 SecondComing  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:59:29am

re: #142 looking closely

And again, to be clear, not EVERYTHING Ron Paul stands for is so crazy.

I hardly think its bizarre to want to reduce the size of the public sector and cut taxes.

Personally, I don’t agree with Paul’s isolationist stance, but that’s another political belief that I don’t think is on its face insane.

I agree. And this is why so many are getting behind him. He puts those ideas right up front, unlike most Republicans. But if you listen to him long enough he starts straying off and talking about the gold standard, the federal reserve and any number of bizarre and scratch your head topics.

164 J.S.  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 11:59:59am

Well, if you want to argue that there’s an increasing trend toward libertarianism in the Republican Party (which very well may be true), this isn’t the way to do it. (clearly, obviously, non-scientific, and not worth much of one’s time — there are far too many unfounded assumptions at play here. And, no, you shouldn’t be “aggregating data” like this…GIGO)

165 [deleted]  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:03:33pm
166 Cygnus  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:07:13pm

re: #21 GeicoGecko

I logged on just so I could downding this post. Sheesh.

167 GeicoGecko  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:08:20pm

re: #18 Killgore Trout

Thanks for posting that. I wasn’t aware of those and I’ve been following the Tea Party thing pretty closely.

Have you actually attended one, or are you “following the Tea Party thing” from behind a computer with a bong in one hand and a bag of Cheez-its in another?

As for those 100,000 people the leftists can muster at a demonstration, so what. They’re leftists. Professional protestors. If they “work” at all they work in the Gender Studies Department of Diversity University or for some leftist NGO like ACORN that encourages them to go to protests.

Unlike us conservatives, who actually do have to work for a living.

168 capitalist piglet  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:08:35pm

re: #157 Right mind left

Absolutely. My comment was about the media reaction, most notably the CNN reporter who tried to explain to the protester that he was getting a tax rebate check so why was he upset! It is moronic but that is how the MSM has been told to focus.

No one is supposed to think about the thousands withheld from their paychecks, or the limitless credit card flying around in D.C….and then she acted like the guy should be grateful that Illinois was getting a bunch of stimulus money. Where does she think that money comes from?

169 capitalist piglet  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:11:19pm

re: #156 SecondComing

I just heard “The Obama Deception” advertised on Rush. It spoken by a different guy(a commercial voice I’ve heard before I think) this time not Alex Jones. It gave a toll free number and said brought to you by Ho Hum productions and Infowar(s).com.

I’ve heard those ads played during just about every conservative talk show I listen to, FWIW.

170 Spare O'Lake  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:11:38pm

Today we hear quite a few GOP supporters espousing the view that right wing extremists have virtually hijacked the GOP.

Considering that we are less than 6 months post-election, isn’t it a bit premature to draw such a conclusion?

OTOH, it is not difficult to give the appearance of having taken control of a ship if there is noone at the helm.

171 Liberal Classic  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:15:13pm

re: #170 Spare O’Lake

Today we hear quite a few GOP supporters espousing the view that right wing extremists have virtually hijacked the GOP.

Considering that we are less than 6 months post-election, isn’t it a bit premature to draw such a conclusion?

OTOH, it is not difficult to give the appearance of having taken control of a ship if there is noone at the helm.

What defines “right wing extremism” in this case? Opposition to the bailouts and stimulus bill?

172 SecondComing  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:15:37pm

re: #169 capitalist piglet

I’ve heard those ads played during just about every conservative talk show I listen to, FWIW.

Wow, he’s really pumping the ads out. Wonder who is funding them. I was just putting it out there because Charles had a post about the ads and there was much discussion of contacting Rush to have him not run them. Just letting everyone know I just heard another one.

173 Thom  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:18:15pm

170 Spare O’Lake

Yes - waaaay too soon.

Anyone who didn’t see a big dem victory last time around does not know history. But the mid-terms will perhaps be telling. (My bet is that it will be Chris Matthews’ head that does the ‘splodin’.)

174 rawmuse  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:18:16pm

Yes, there were Ron Paul supporters at the demonstrations, but there were also lots of people who wanted ordinary sanity to be restored to the budget, including a lot of Democrats.

Some of this criticism is starting to remind me of those who wish to discredit the entire life’s work of Thomas Jefferson because he owned slaves.

175 Adrenalyn  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:19:05pm

I wonder if Ron Paul was to blame for the outages at Level3 lately

made it damn near impossible for me to get onto LGF for a couple days

but at least that is fixed

176 Lobosan5  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:19:16pm

re: #150 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

OK….try this:
“I don’t care what the protest is about : 90% of the people that show up are basically bums.”

Hey Shug…like I said…FK U.

177 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:19:53pm

re: #167 GeicoGecko

As for those 100,000 people the leftists can muster at a demonstration, so what. They’re leftists. Professional protestors. If they “work” at all they work in the Gender Studies Department of Diversity University or for some leftist NGO like ACORN that encourages them to go to protests.

Too funny (and true!)

178 Joel  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:21:00pm

re: #170 Spare O’Lake

Today we hear quite a few GOP supporters espousing the view that right wing extremists have virtually hijacked the GOP.

Considering that we are less than 6 months post-election, isn’t it a bit premature to draw such a conclusion?

OTOH, it is not difficult to give the appearance of having taken control of a ship if there is noone at the helm.

yeah the right wing extremists have so much control over the GOP that they gave us John McCain as our candidate. Fucking pathetic!

179 Max Darkside  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:21:32pm

My 2 cents… The tea party idea came from a trading floor. My involvement in such activities has nothing to do with Republican, Libertarian, Paulian, Palinist or any other driver other than I’m PISSED OFF by the gov’t not only over taxing me (2 Pick-Up Trucks per year worth!) but spending like a rap*d ape in order to tax me even more later or devalue my dollar so much that I have to spend $10 for a flippin’ loaf of bread.

Conservative ideals, and the activities they spawn, draw many from across the spectrum. Correlation is NOT causation.

Thanks.

180 Max Darkside  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:26:15pm

P.S. I hardly know who the hell Ron Paul is, other than the little weasel reminds me a lot of that Perot guy from Tx.

181 wiffersnapper  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:32:22pm

Stop listening to this crazy guy, seriously.

182 lightspeed  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:33:48pm

This article is total and complete B.S. The “statistical correlation” here is meaningless. As others have said, the only true measure would have been to actually take attendance of the Tea Parties. Here is another statistical comparison using EXCATLY THE SAME METHODOLOGY as FiveThirtyEight did:

CNBC Top State Economies:
1 Texas
2 New York
3 Oklahoma
4 Utah
5 Idaho
6 Wyoming
7 California
8 Arizona
9 New Mexico
10 Montana
(11 Colorado)

Top Ron Paul Fundraising States,Donations Per Adult 18+
New Hampshire $0.22
Wyoming $0.18
Alaska $0.18
Nevada $0.17
Montana $0.15
Idaho $0.14
Washington $0.14
Texas $0.13
Arizona $0.11
Colorado $0.11

Top States for Tea Party Protests,Percentage of Adults Attending
South Dakota 0.66%
Alaska 0.47%
Wyoming 0.38%
Colorado 0.30%
Oklahoma 0.30%
Idaho 0.29%
Arizona 0.27%
Iowa 0.26%
West Virginia 0.26%
Georgia 0.25%

WOW! Looking at those numbers, FIVE out of the top Ron Paul states are also in the top ten economies in the U.S.! Ron Paul must be GREAT for business! FOUR out of the top Tea Party states are in the top ten economies. FIVE out of the top Tea Party states are in the top eleven economies. Surely the stats don’t lie? Support for Ron Paul and Tea Parties is obviously the result of the booming economies in these states.

I put this together in like 20 mins. I am sure others could put together some equally meaningless stats. C’mon Charles, I can’t believe you take this poll seriously.

183 ladycatnip  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:37:23pm

I see the Tea Party protests as truly a grass roots movement unlike the professional protesters on the left. I highly doubt these organizers were giving the homeless 50 bucks and busing them in to puff the numbers.

I’m just glad somebody (I don’t know who) thought of the Tea Bag thingy. It was respectful while at the same time letting the gov know we’re mad as hornets about the pork barrel stimulus.

184 lightspeed  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:37:55pm

FYI, if you read the comments on the 538 webpage, a lot of people are criticising his methodology…

185 Bill Dalasio  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:39:40pm

Charles,

I took the liberty of running the correlations on the only full sample EightThirtyFive has posted, that of the regional breakdown of support for Paul and attendance at Tea Party protests. The correlation between the two samples is .64. Not irrelevant, but hardly remarkable. It means roughly 41% of the variation can be explained by donations to Paul. But, a univariate model of things like this are notoriously susceptible to misinterpretation. Both support for Ron Paul and support for the Tea Parties probably have a high (perhaps higher) correlation to support for Republicans and conservatives in general. I mean, let’s face it, people weren’t showing up at the Tea Parties because they favor exapansionary and interventionist government. But, Paul supporters are only a segment of those favoring a more limited government. That is, while all Paulestinians favor limited government, not all people favoring limited government are Paulestinians. Without any information outlining support for conservatives and Republicans in general in the regions cited, I think it’s hard to say with much certainty that the evidence shows what the author says it does.

186 ladycatnip  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:40:00pm

#182 lightspeed

Interesting that Texas is the number one state for the economy. My husband just got back from a business trip to Texas and he was astonished at how well they’re doing compared to California. The work is definitely there, not here.

187 Wendya  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:45:31pm

re: #25 IslandLibertarian

Protesting big government and high taxes is always a libertarian thing.
Ron Paul is just a glitch in the works.

Apparently they are many people who believe huge government and high taxes should never be protested on the streets but instead in the privacy of the voting booth. I do not hold that opinion.

188 redmirabai  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:49:31pm

At the West Lake (downtown Seattle) tea party, there were some young people who seemed to think the crowd belonged to them; asking for signatures on stuff, etc. I thought they might be Paulians if “Campaign for Liberty” is one of their avatars.
At the same time, I don’t think much of the crowd was focussed on them, or aware of them. I met a lot of nice, sincere people who got a kick out of not feeling alone in their outrage and puzzlement at the government’s tactics.

Like most movements, someone always wants to steer it in their direction; the Paul people have shown they are organizers and actors. Not surprising they might want to hijack the movement, or take credit for it.

189 thebigolddog  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:51:55pm

250,000 + people attended tea parties. I listened to dozens and dozens of people call in from all over New England discussing the event they were attending. Not a single one of them ever mentioned Ron Paul. I’ve watched dozens and dozens of Youtube videos. Read hundreds of posts including photos of events all over the country. I never one read, heard or saw anything related to Ron Paul. What I did hear are ordinary working Americans fed up. Sorry, I just don’t see the strong link except when I read LGF.

190 motionview  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:53:17pm

Silver is a democratic pollster trying desperately to spin away the juggernaut that will slow down the Beltway run to socialism. What is the correlation between Tea Party attendees and people who actually pay taxes? The Tea Party movement is not about Paul or Palin, or even Obama. It is about piling up debt that can never be repaid. It is about trying to prevent the collapse of the American Revolutionary ideal.

191 thebigolddog  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 12:55:11pm

If that ridiculous analysis qualifies as some sort of Scientific proof then I am turning in my MS for retraining.

192 Kenneth  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:03:14pm

re: #161 FabioC.

With standards like these one has to accept the infamous Lancet sutdy on Iraqi civilian deaths, and Mann’s Hockey Stick as incontestable.

The Lancet study had very much weaker statistics, shoddy methodology, 95% error bars, and unsupported conclusions.

193 lightspeed  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:05:28pm

re: #185 Bill Dalasio

That is, while all Paulestinians favor limited government, not all people favoring limited government are Paulestinians.

Exactly. Six of the “Ron Paul” states were red states and three others were battlegrounds.

I like the term “Paulestinian.’

194 quickjustice  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:07:05pm

The libertarians should dump Ron Paul. Now.

195 thebigolddog  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:13:10pm

Correlation does not imply causation is a phrase used in science and statistics to emphasize that correlation between two variables does not automatically imply that one causes the other (though it needs to be stressed that it doesn’t remove the fact that correlation can still be a hint, whether powerful or otherwise[1]). The phrase’s opposite, correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. The fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for “with this, therefore because of this”) and false cause. By contrast, the fallacy post hoc ergo propter hoc requires that one event occurs before the other and so may be considered a type of cum hoc.

In a widely-studied example, numerous epidemiological studies showed that women who were taking combined hormone replacement therapy (HRT) also had a lower-than-average incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), leading doctors to propose that HRT was protective against CHD. But controlled trials showed that HRT caused a small and significant increase in risk of CHD. Re-analysis of the data showed that women undertaking HRT were more likely to be from higher socio-economic groups (ABC1), with better than average diet and exercise regimes. The two were coincident effects of a common cause, rather than cause and effect as had been supposed.[2]

196 lightspeed  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:29:43pm

re: #186 ladycatnip

#182 lightspeed

Interesting that Texas is the number one state for the economy.

I am sure it is because the BushHitler regime kept funneling money into that evil state. After all Halliburton, ExxonMobil, Enron, and all other evil corporation were born in Texas.

Whoa, sorry. Was possessed by a raving libtard for a few minutes there.

197 funky chicken  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:31:14pm

re: #14 Killgore Trout

I think they’re going to peter out. The just enough enough substance and the vast majority of people aren’t hurting financially because of taxes. Most people are effected by the stock market and the economy. People love to bitch about taxes but it’s a pretty low priority for most people these days.

Sadly, GW Bush may have killed the issue. He was all about tax cuts and talked for years about how they “grew” the economy….but now we’re in a huge crash that’s being blamed on Bush.

He cut taxes but grew domestic spending and public debt.

That’s not conservative, but unless and until the GOP is willing to say that, all the talk about tax cuts will fall on deaf ears or just make people roll their eyes.

198 ergo sum  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:43:07pm

Interesting. No one I know, including myself, who attended any of the Tea Parties around the Seattle area are Paulbots. Saw some Paul signs, but I was lead to the Tea Parties through local NON-Paul grassroots orgs popping up in response to the Obamanation going on.

199 MrMisanthrope  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:51:20pm

re: #194 quickjustice

The libertarians should dump Ron Paul. Now.


Libertarians don’t have to. He dumped them. Last I heard they were saddled with the ex RINO now LINO Barrbarian.

FWIW, here in Indiana at the Valparaiso Tea Party, there was ONE guy who MIGHT have been a Paulistinian, but I couldn’t tell. He seemed closer to LaRouchian, but I couldn’t get past his “I live in a basement and don’t bathe” force field.

There was also ONE “counter protester” of undefined sex, purple hair and sallow complexion (though stylish Leather & spectacles) waving a “Teabag Me” sign…

The rest of us were out there establishing our bona-fides as one-issue Rightwing Extemists…

200 AmericanMe  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 1:54:24pm

re: #33 Russkilitlover

You really should NOT lump everyone into your one size fits all basket. Come to California if you want to see some tax anger.

Indeed. CA Dems and girlyman Arnold, who didn’t have the cojones to stand up to them, are out of control. And that’s not even taking into account local Los Angeles scuzballs. LA currently has a sales tax of 9.25%. A pack of cigarettes costs over $7.00 and climbing. Yeah sure, it’s a nasty habit, but that’s not the point. BTW, they just tripled our car tax.

201 fstrat  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 2:04:24pm

I don’t see that RP owns anything related to the tea parties with the exception of a few supporters. I would speculate that 80%+ of the organizers we talk to don’t want anything to do with any political party or politician.

TeaPartyRevolution FAQ

202 Quilly Mammoth  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 4:05:02pm

I used to be a registered Libertarian in my State until the party membership dropped so far as eliminate it as a “standing party”. Which was fine by me because all of the candidates suggested were kooks.

I saw one guy that was active at meetings there. And As I said before I met a _few_ Paulians.

I would ask you, Charles, to hold fire until more comes clear. Seriously, I did not see any kooks at the tea party I was at. I think most of the people attracted are civilians. Some Tea Parties may have had nuts there…but what large gathering doesn’t?

I defy anyone to hold a large gathering for any cause that does not attract kooks. _That’s_ why they come!

203 ddbb01  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 5:20:01pm

I can only speak for what I saw at the Dallas tea party, but most of the people were ordinary people who were fed up with the current national fiscal situation. There was one guy at a street corner with a Ron Paul sign, but very few of the people I ran into were activists of any kind.

204 aRedPhishHead  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 5:30:16pm

Eh. I believe it. I don’t like Ron Paul or the Paulnuts, or any of the other fringy whackos and wingnuts that dotted the gatherings.

That said, I still enjoyed the tea parties on the whole as a “something.”

205 ArdentCapitalist  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 5:59:20pm

Remind me again why Ron Paul is crazy? Economically speaking, he’s one of the only true conservatives out there. Unfortunately this is about where my agreements with the guy end.

The libertarian in me likes the guy for his faith in capitalism and strong adherence to traditionalist interpretation of the constitution, but the War on Terrorism veteran in me can’t believe the slack-jawed stupidity of his “blame ourselves first” philosophy on all foreign policy issues. Rudy was spot on when he slammed Ron Paul during the debates when he called out how “incredible” blaming ourselves for 9/11 really was. Ron Paul will show incredible historical knowledge on constitutional affairs for a debate, but then in the next sentence have complete amnesia on an issue for which that keen historical knowledge should support with great efficacy.

For instance, recently he gave the very solid argument for congressional powers of marque and reprisal in combating piracy on the high seas, which has been used in the past to secure American interests, but then forgets that the Barbary Wars in the early 19th century and Presley O’Bannon’s Marine siege of Tripoli in 1805 were the first shots fired in a war the Islamic world has been waging on our civilization for centuries, and our nation for over 200 years.

In short, the libertarians, while I share their free market ideology, will never gain this warrior’s support until they put down the war protest flag and come to the very sane realization that America will have some very mean and dangerous enemies, regardless of how nice we are to them. When I first went into this war, I was 20 years old and facing an enemy that was largely located in the 17 to 30 year old male demographic. It frightens me when I think how many of the 10 year old children in the Islamic world back then are now my adversary… and no, I don’t believe my actions, those of my brothers in arms, or of my nation sparked the hatred in them. That’s the Islamic world’s doing. My actions are not a reason, but rather an excuse for their hate.

206 voluble  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:07:31pm

It is a waste of time to worry about how “radical” the Tea Party movement is when we have a Fascist/Marxist who sees no boundaries on government power sitting in the oval office at this very moment. There is not a single part of Obama’s program that would be any different if his goal was to destroy the economy. There is not a single proposal he has made that will expand the rights of US citizens or increase the freedom under which we live. Quite the opposite.

Let’s look at his energy policy alone. He would like everyone to drive electric cars which would entail more than doubling the electricity we must produce. At the same time he would like to bankrupt the coal industry which is our largest source of electrical power. There are no proposals to increase the number of nuclear plants and natural gas cannot pick up the slack. There are no other viable options. He has said that it is his goal to make energy extremely expensive and his actions back that up. These are not the acts of a sane individual. He has told the country in no uncertain terms that he will destroy the economy and he has told us how he intends to do it. Just today the EPA reneged on a permit it had already issued to an Indian tribe for a coal plant that is much cleaner than the one they already run. Since Obama can’t get a carbon tax or the like he will use the EPA to accomplish much the same goal. This is typical of how leftist despots govern.

Private contracts are being voided on presidential whim in several industries and CEO’s are being purged without even so much as a meeting of the board while bond holders are left with the short end of the stick as the government and unions collude to parcel out companies such as Chrysler between themselves. We just committed to more debt in 90 days than the cumulative total accrued by the Republic in over 200 years of existence and we did it with only a cursory debate and held the vote before many of those voting even had a copy of what they were voting on. At the time Obama had only appointed one person to the Treasury Department out of the 18 or 19 slots and the guy he picked wouldn’t be competent enough to hold the money at a church fundraiser.

Obama has announced plans to nationalize roughly 25% of the US economy, with the US government being the major shareholder in banks, insurers and car companies with additional plans for a government takeover of the entire health care industry. This type of corporatism is EXACTLY what fascism and socialism is all about.

And yet the movement to bring a halt to all of this, or even slow it down, is just too radical, too impure to be countenanced.

207 Charles Johnson  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:09:19pm

re: #205 ArdentCapitalist

Remind me again why Ron Paul is crazy?

[Link: www.tnr.com…]

208 Charles Johnson  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:16:39pm

re: #206 voluble

And yet the movement to bring a halt to all of this, or even slow it down, is just too radical, too impure to be countenanced.

Assuming for the sake of argument that your points are valid, how exactly are the tea parties doing anything at all to “bring a halt to this?”

209 thatemailname  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:29:00pm

(Right hand on Bible) I swear that the fact that I was an organizer for a Tea Party in New Jersey had absolutely nothing to do with support for Ron Paul.

I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Ron Paul supporters.

(Question: is it possible that many people who support Ron Paul do so out of frustration with the two major parties, and not because they subscribe to every position he holds? And is it further possible that, since one of the major feelings expressed by the “Tea Partiers” was frustration with the two major parties, there is necessarily going to be an overlap here?)

210 thatemailname  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:30:22pm

re: #206 voluble

And yet the movement to bring a halt to all of this, or even slow it down, is just too radical, too impure to be countenanced.

Any chance you could expound a bit on what makes the “Tea Party” movement “radical” and “impure”? With facts, please, not opinions.

211 thatemailname  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:32:10pm

re: #203 ddbb01

I can only speak for what I saw at the Dallas tea party, but most of the people were ordinary people who were fed up with the current national fiscal situation. There was one guy at a street corner with a Ron Paul sign, but very few of the people I ran into were activists of any kind.

Exactly what I saw at the tea party I organized in New Jersey. Exactly. About 250 people, 0 (zero) Ron Paul signs.

212 thatemailname  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 6:33:23pm

I seem to recall something I learned reading this website for the past few years: “When you start getting flak, you must be over the target”.

213 ArdentCapitalist  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 7:07:30pm

re: #207 Charles

[Link: www.tnr.com…]

Charles, thanks for that. My choice of words was poor. I was trying to point out that I think the guy’s economic views are actually quite in line with the spirit of economic conservatism. I think he has extremely poor foreign policy stances because of his pro-isolationist slant.

214 abbyadams  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 7:18:09pm

I inadvertently ran into one this weekend; it was at Valley Forge National Historical Site. Many Ron Paul stickers in the parking lot.

A small crowd of non-protesters had gathered around to hear what the speakers had to say. The first that I heard spoke through a bullhorn about the Constitution, States’ Rights, and overt over-taxation. He drew a bit of applause from everyone there.

The second speaker that I heard started immediately with “Obama is a fraud! He took the oath of office in secret! He’s not really even president!” The woman next to me said to her husband “Oh my God.” They left. By the time the speaker had finished, there were very few (if any) non-protesters left.

This, IMHO, is the problem with the tea parties. The message can’t be controlled.

215 Charles Johnson  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 7:49:56pm

re: #214 abbyadams

I inadvertently ran into one this weekend; it was at Valley Forge National Historical Site. Many Ron Paul stickers in the parking lot.

A small crowd of non-protesters had gathered around to hear what the speakers had to say. The first that I heard spoke through a bullhorn about the Constitution, States’ Rights, and overt over-taxation. He drew a bit of applause from everyone there.

The second speaker that I heard started immediately with “Obama is a fraud! He took the oath of office in secret! He’s not really even president!” The woman next to me said to her husband “Oh my God.” They left. By the time the speaker had finished, there were very few (if any) non-protesters left.

This, IMHO, is the problem with the tea parties. The message can’t be controlled.

Ssshhh! Don’t you realize people don’t want to hear that?

/sarcasm

216 J.S.  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 8:16:24pm

I don’t have a lot of time for this, but I really do feel compelled to address this very, very, very problematic so-called “statistical analysis.” imo, it’s completely bogus.

Soo, as I understand it, Silver here goes to a website which lists Ron Paul’s contributions (in dollar amounts) as per individual states. Thus, from California, Ron Paul (from individual contributors) received $2,753,000 (est. here, I’m not bothering with the exact numbers since this is all malarkey anyway). The amount of contributions is represented by bubbles (the larger the bubble, the more the dollar amount of the contributions). Ok. All fine. You could do a table and arrange the top 5 dollar amount of contributions per state in the United States for the Ron Paul campaign. No problem.

Next. What does Silver do? lol. He apparently takes the dollar amounts (of the Ron Paul contributions) and then — I’m hyperventilating here — divides this dollar amount by the over 18 (adults) of the entire state in question. Well, what the hell is that? No. No. No. You’ve just flubbed up your “analysis.” (consider, for example, let’s say that in the State of Texas — it’s a wealthy state and each individual donation is HIGH — thus there may be very few Ron Paul contributors, but they donate lots and lots of cash. On the other hand, there may be another state, say in the poorer sector of the country, and here you’ve got lots and lots of donors, but their individual contributions are small. So, this raises the question — by what measure are you using to gage the level of Ron Paul support, eh? By dollar amounts or by the number of people (as in bodies who support Ron Paul)? Without knowing the actual number of individual contributors per state, you’re wandering in the dark. (I suspect I know why Silver may have chosen to use a dollar amount — it’s because a dollar amount, hey, it “looks like a number” which can be added, subtracted and divided, eh? And, here’s the next big, big faux pas — there are “quantitative stats” and then there are “qualitative stats” — they cannot be “interchanged.” If you’re dealing with categorical data — it’s a non-parametric stat (and there are very limited things which you can do — you can draw up frequency distributions — but you can’t take a “mean”, you can’t do an “average’, with a categorical stat, you can’t have a “per capita” figure. For example, you could ask people, “Do you support Ron Paul?” and there’d be an answer, “Yes” or “No.” Now tell me, can there be an “average” derived from a listing of the “Yes,” “No” responses? Of course not. an, average (as in a mean) is utterly and completely meaningless. Ditto — if you want to get a “correlation” ya gotta have a quantitative stat — say, a random number variable — not a “yes/no” categorical response.

And, then, the rest of this gibberish? How on earth does he separate a “libertarian” from a “Ron Paul” supporter? or does he just meld them magically together? Ditto for the sudden addition of Palin — what the hell is that? And how does he get 2/3 Ron Paul vs 1/3 Palin? Is that based on the geographic “fact” that 2/3 of the United States consists of the Midwestern and Pacific states, while the South makes up the other third? arghhhh….just a total cluster f***…

217 prince of leaves  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 10:34:52pm

Man, that 538 article was really reaching. I’d offer the reminder that “correlation does not equal causation”, but it would cheapen the phrase by association with such a lame analysis.

I don’t like Ron Paul. I think he’s a complete kook, and I think his followers are worse. I wouldn’t have anything to do with any event that was organized by his cult or was in any way a promotion of it or affiliated with the man.

That said, I attended the Denver Tea Party rally, and I spoke several times (before, during and since) with Brian T. Campbell, the organizer of that event. Brian is not a Ronulan. There was no mention made of Ron Paul at the event (never mind the jackass with the megaphone who got up *after* the event had formally concluded and people were filtering out, and was ignored as he tried to hijack the coattails of the real event). The entire event was videotaped and posted on several websites (including peoplespresscollective.org) — not one mention of Ron Paul.

The Denver Tea Party was *exactly* as billed by the supporters of Tea Parties: it was all about fiscal responsibility, small government, accountability, and liberty in general, Republicans were dissed by speakers and crowd alike, and while there were a half dozen kooks (the helpful lefty outrage-manufacturers at ProgressNow were only able to document a whole three kooky signs out of a crowd of 5-6,000 people), there really wasn’t any racism or other ugliness.

This article is very dishonest, and transparently so.

218 Prince of Leaves  Tue, Apr 28, 2009 10:58:05pm

To follow on a point that J.S. made: Colorado may be especially skewed in that analysis because we have a small population, and a couple of big Paul donors (the aforementioned jackass with the megaphone is reputedly some sort of multilevel marketing millionaire who ran the Ron Paul Limo stunt).

I understand the need to keep the kooks out. But I don’t understand the need to demonize the whole nascent Tea Party movement that drives one to unquestioningly accept such flawed analyses as this. Wouldn’t it be more productive and better for the country to focus on pushing the kooks out, instead of belittling the whole effort and demotivating the non-kook citizens who are fed up and motivated to do something about the circuses in DC and the state capitals?

219 1trl  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 3:26:36am

Ron Paul supporters and Libertarian/Republicans are amongst your guests. Why would someone outside quoting them or their ideas as your guests be any more problematic than any others ideas? Couldn’t people from across the political spectrum could have some good ideas, even though their main philosophy is flawed?

What is the reason for your objection to the “Tea Party” protests? The possibility of differences within any assembled group are nearly certain. The possibility that megalomaniacs or authorities will try to control or sway the group are near certain. The possibility that media will focus on whomever seems to be the most aberrant or boisterous is high. So what? This is political theater!

Are the cerebral musing of Perfect Conservatives offended by the Mob, an instrument solely to be used by the left? Or should any movement be devalued, as it’s goals simply could not be pure enough?

Finally, why do you seem to be at war with so many familiar conservatives (most entertainers) of late? Beck is humorous, overwrought and occasionally makes some good points between rants, as do Coulter, Malkin, Limbaugh. Don’t you believe that nearly everyone can discern the wheat from the chaff?

220 thatemailname  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 5:47:39am

re: #219 1trl

Ron Paul supporters and Libertarian/Republicans are amongst your guests. Why would someone outside quoting them or their ideas as your guests be any more problematic than any others ideas? Couldn’t people from across the political spectrum could have some good ideas, even though their main philosophy is flawed?

What is the reason for your objection to the “Tea Party” protests? The possibility of differences within any assembled group are nearly certain. The possibility that megalomaniacs or authorities will try to control or sway the group are near certain. The possibility that media will focus on whomever seems to be the most aberrant or boisterous is high. So what? This is political theater!

Are the cerebral musing of Perfect Conservatives offended by the Mob, an instrument solely to be used by the left? Or should any movement be devalued, as it’s goals simply could not be pure enough?

Finally, why do you seem to be at war with so many familiar conservatives (most entertainers) of late? Beck is humorous, overwrought and occasionally makes some good points between rants, as do Coulter, Malkin, Limbaugh. Don’t you believe that nearly everyone can discern the wheat from the chaff?

Very well put! A reasoned, and reasonable, analysis. I see it’s already garnered you one “thumbs down”. What better sign that reason and reasonableness are two things that oddly, seem to be in short supply these days.

221 del  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 6:49:47am

medaura,

you wrote above: “Well,.. I could be safely characterized libertarian-conservative, but I’m no Ron-Paul-bot. I hope those two labels are not being used interchangeably by this study.”

I had a bit of cognitive dissonance as I read your statement since your husband, mph/popcontest was quoted last year in the Washington Post, in reference to Obama’s campaign, ” ‘I just can’t stand it. Whenever I hear him speak, I shake my head, thinking, ‘Are people hearing his campaign’s overtly religious tones?’ ” says Michael Hussey, 29, an Internet entrepreneur who runs RateMyTeachers.com. Hussey is a libertarian, his politics a cross between Ron Paul’s and Rudy Giuliani’s, he says.”

[Link: www.washingtonpost.com…]

Now, I agree with MPH’s aversion to Obama’s messianism, but
what does “politics… a cross between Ron Paul’s and Rudy Giuliani’s” mean? He seems to have intentionally brought Ron Paul’s name into the discussion. Was he misquoted? Out-of-context? Why didn’t he just refer to himself as a libertarian?

222 meh130  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 6:54:51am

So now anyone who self-identifies as a “small-L” libertarian conservative is automatically a Paulian? Yougottabekiddingme! Charles, you hold some pretty “libertarian” views, don’t you?

From the article:

The best benchmark I’ve been able to come up with for libertarianism is the amount of contributions to Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign.

That passes as “research”? It’s more reaching than research. What about contributions to the Libertarian Party? Membership in the Cato Institute? Local affiliates of the Neal Boortz show? This article is a freaking joke!

And note Alaska was the third highest state in per-capita Ron Paul contributions. And the article suggests Palinism is some opposite end of the political spectrum than Paulianism.

This article is a freaking insult to all things small-L libertarianism: Barry Goldwater, Ronald Reagan, Alan Simpson, Milton Friedman, Steve Forbes, even Jack Kemp’s entrepreneurial capitalism is small-L in a business sense.

libertarianism (small L) =/= Paulianism.

I wonder what Arlen Specter’s role is in all of this. He has some pretty socially libertarian views.

223 nosterrex  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 7:12:44am

I attended the Tea Party in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on the campus at the University of Alabama, and I did not see any evidence of Ron Paul’s minions. All of the speeches dealt with the “flat tax,” and the concerns of an ever expanding federal government. There is a certain overlap on these issues with Ron Paul’s libertarianism, but people are more concerned with states rights than foreign interventionism.

224 ddbb01  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 8:28:35am

Charles wrote: “Assuming for the sake of argument that your points are valid, how exactly are the tea parties doing anything at all to “bring a halt to this?”

Its a start. It shows that thousands of people are fed up and actively oppose the expansion of the federal government. Judging by the attempts of a number of politicians to participate, there is notice where it counts.

There was also a lot of anger directed at state governments as well. Unlike the protests during the Bush years, the tea parties were largely independent efforts attended by people who were not professional agitators. There was no media coverage or professional PR events to pull participants. There was no violence or vandalism. Thousands of ordinary people with jobs and incomes to tax took the time out of their day to display their concern, and yes, anger, at the direction of government. It was not a Republican or a Ron Paul rally. There were Republicans, Democrats, independents and a handful of fringe characters attending.

If this can be mobilized after only a few months of a new administration, you would think there would be some concern on the part of elected officials. If not, you would think that there would be some consequences for elected officials in 2010. Gridlock can’t come fast enough.

You get a large enough group together, some of the fringe elements are going to show up. It would be a mistake to lump the entire tea party attendance in with a couple of Ron Paul supporters who waived a sign. In Dallas, there were a few thousand people there. Everyone I ran into was employed (other than the small children, of course), polite and genuinely concerned with the direction the country is headed. This was the mainstream.

225 Charles Johnson  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 8:38:04am

If anyone needs any further evidence that Ron Paul is being mainstreamed in the ‘conservative’ movement, this thread is it.

How sad.

226 lincolntf  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 8:39:06am

re: #222 meh130

The whole thing is silliness. I could use similar statistical modeling type mumbo-jumbo to “prove” that LGF is a Ron Paul site or even a “hate site”. Of course, anyone actually coming to LGF would realize that my “proof” was bullshit, just like anyone who actually went to a Tea Party realizes that this “study” is total bullshit.
As long as the hysterics on both sides of the Tea Party issue stay at home on their computers babbling about conspiracies, the longer we’ll be able to have the actual Tea Parties without their interference.

227 Charles Johnson  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 8:50:38am

Deny, deny, deny.

228 Lincolntf  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 9:01:23am

re: #227 Charles

In my experience, it’s helpful and constructive to deny things that are untrue.

229 Charles Johnson  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 9:13:28am

And sometimes denial is just a futile attempt to make unpleasant truths go away.

230 Bookworm  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 10:09:14am

Genuine libertarianism, free from the icky Ron Paul taint, is very simple: less government. I think that the tea parties were a true, grass roots expression of classic libertarianism — American citizens rising up to oppose increased statism. Certainly that was true in my neck of the woods, because I know many of the people who attended and they are true small government people who simply want less government interference, while maintaining a strong defense.

The fact is, though, that Ron Paulians are everywhere, and it would be silly to imagine that they wouldn’t want to attend an event like this.

The thing is that, just because the crazies like it, it doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. The goal is to limit them to participating roles and make sure that they don’t get the power. Essentially, we’re facing the flip side of what happened on the left, which is that a whole lot of good ideas (such as equal opportunities and treatment for blacks and women) got co-opted by the radical left, who turned these good ideas into identity politics and vehicles for the Communist idea of equal outcomes for all, as opposed to the American idea of equal opportunities.

231 ddbb01  Wed, Apr 29, 2009 12:58:26pm

re: #225 Charles

Charles,

I did not say that Ron Paul was the mainstream. I said that the attendees of the tea parties (at least the Dallas event I attended) were the mainstream. Out of a few thousand people in attendance, I saw one overt Ron Paul supporter standing alone on a street corner waiving his sign. That’s it. There may have been others, but I did not notice them and they did not get the attention of the crowd or the speakers.

I generally agree with your points of view, particularly with respect to Ron Paul and the fringe figures with whom he associates and attracts. However, I think it is a mistake to associate the tea party movement with the Paulians. There are plenty of people who want less spending and smaller government without supporting Ron Paul. At the Dallas event, the only name spoken with any reverence was Reagan. Republican and Democrats both were booed by the audience, and Paul was not mentioned.

When I attended, I did not see the typical characteristics of professional agitators and cranks or political activists. There was a point where a speaker asked if anyone had ever previously attended a demonstration and the overwhelming majority said ‘No’ through a show of hands. We seem to be conditioned to believe that there must be some sinister organizing force behind a political demonstration (such as Code Pink or ANSWER), but I think it would be difficult to find any significant support for Ron Paul among tea party attendees.


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