A Mock Attack on North Korea

Charles Johnsonfollow me on twitter
World • Wed May 27, 2009 at 9:21 am PDT • Views: 461

Noah Shachtman on prepping for war with North Korea:

Even the hawks say there’s not much America can do, in response to North Korea’s nuclear test. But that doesn’t mean the U.S. military isn’t prepping for a war with the Kim Jong-Il regime, just in case.

In March, American and South Korean forces teamed up for the “Key Resolve/Foal Eagle” war game. 13,100 troops from outside Korea — and tens of thousands more, already stationed in the country — participated in the massive exercise, which focused on “deploying troops and equipment to Korea in the event of an attack,” according to a military press release.

Some U.S. and South Korean commandos made airborne jumps together from a helium blimp; others, from helicopters hovering above the Korea Strait. A third group ran a mock “operation to secure a suspected chemical weapons lab.” Unconventional weapons experts drilled in responding to a simulated strike involving “hundreds of WMD.” Navy helicopter pilots swept for mines, while Marine fighter pilots flew with their South Korean counterparts to “wipe out” simulated enemy aircraft.

The Americans and their allies kicked all kinds of butt in the exercise, of course. Other war games, testing out the North Korean scenario, didn’t end quite as cleanly. One ran by The Atlantic in 2005 forecast 100,000 or more dead civilians in the first few days. And that was if the U.S. could assemble the half-million to million troops needed for such an assault; none of the participants thought such a staggering number of troops could be gathered together, given all of America’s military commitments around the world.

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278 comments

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1 NJDhockeyfan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:22:39am

I was just reading that.

2 Guanxi88  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:23:35am

No good options at all, it seems.

3 NJDhockeyfan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:24:49am
4 CIA Reject  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:25:38am

I guess running a DASO off the NORK coast would be a little too provocative eh?

5 MandyManners  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:25:51am
6 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:26:10am

/Oh for the halcyon days of Jimmy Carter...

7 turn  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:26:49am

“Any of the U.S. options described above could trigger uncontrollable escalation that would create appalling casualties on both sides of the DMZ and promise a Pyrrhic victory at best."

yep, we're powerless to do anything about it.

8 Guanxi88  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:26:54am

re: #6 Golem Akbar

/Oh for the halcyon days of Jimmy Carter...

Well, you're soaking in it now. (Channeling Madge from the old Palmolive commercials.)

9 simonml  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:26:55am

Let's hope it never comes to war. I don't trust Obama as CiC

10 ladycatnip  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:27:19am

One wonders at the timing of this, as the article pointed out that America is spread pretty thin in the military department.

11 Ben Hur  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:27:36am

We'll soon see if The One is a racist imperialist.

12 grahamski  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:27:53am

The little tyrant is testing the ZERO, and the ZERO is failing miserably.

13 Lincolntf  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:27:53am

Oh my God! It's finally happened! Run, run, run!


Oh wait a minute, the headline says "mock" attack. Nevermind...

14 KenJen  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:29:50am

re: #2 Guanxi88

No good options at all, it seems.

This is what happens when you do nothing to a crazed man who's messing around with nukes. I'm hope Israel is learning from our mistakes.

15 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:30:22am

No matter what help we want from China, we are not likely to get much.
China is afraid to create instability in NK & create chaos.
Their realistic fear is that millions of starving refugees would stream into China.

16 Mad Al-Jaffee  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:30:29am

re: #9 simonml

Let's hope it never comes to war. I don't trust Obama as CiC

He'll take care of the situation with a strongly worded letter.

17 Pupdawg  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:30:55am

I do wonder if the MSM will now accuse Obama of having plans inplace for a war with North Korea? They hammered GW on such contingency plans during his administration, but doubt seriously if they'll criticize Obama about this or anything else, actually.

18 simonml  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:30:57am

re: #10 ladycatnip

One wonders at the timing of this, as the article pointed out that America is spread pretty thin in the military department.

IIRC we have large forces in S. Korea as well as Japan. That would at least plug the gap

19 Bob Dillon  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:31:02am

re: #15 opnion

No matter what help we want from China, we are not likely to get much.
China is afraid to create instability in NK & create chaos.
Their realistic fear is that millions of starving refugees would stream into China.

Ditto SKorea.

20 Ben Hur  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:31:46am

Wow, when Bush was president people flipped out over simulated war plans.

21 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:31:51am

re: #19 Bobibutu

Ditto SKorea.

Right

22 VegasRick  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:31:57am

re: #7 turn

“Any of the U.S. options described above could trigger uncontrollable escalation that would create appalling casualties on both sides of the DMZ and promise a Pyrrhic victory at best."

yep, we're powerless to do anything about it.

"Inaction while Kim Jong Il develops a robust nuclear arsenal and perhaps supplies nuclear weapons to U.S. enemies, unfortunately, would worsen any future confrontation.”

When will we learn. When a bully picks a fight with you, you can run and hide or fight back. I choose to fight back.

23 Mithrax  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:32:02am

re: #5 MandyManners

Some sunny day.

Gentlemen! you can't fight in here! this is a war room!

24 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:32:05am

/All we are saying...is give...[kaboom]...

25 Ben Hur  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:32:05am

But not to worry.

Russia will save us.

26 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:32:22am

No War For Kimchi!

27 Bloodnok  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:32:41am

re: #12 grahamski

The little tyrant is testing the ZERO, and the ZERO is failing miserably.

In fairness there's not much he can do here. As this article points out military solutions are not really viable at this time and if they were there's a madman at the other end of things. So what other leverage do we have? All we can do is work on China at this point.

28 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:32:49am

re: #20 Ben Hur

Wow, when Bush was president people flipped out over simulated war plans.

/It's Bush's fault!

29 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:33:10am
30 Baier  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:33:43am

Now with the US out of the game the rest of the world will step up...yeah right!
So of course, the next Republican president is going to have clean up the foreign policy mess made by the democrats, and then get blamed for the mess. Then the democrats will get runon how they are better at foreign policy...the cycle continues...

31 VioletTiger  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:33:56am

Besides attention, I think Kim wants big concessions and lost of money, if not from us then from our enemies. Iran, Venezuela, and any terrorist group wanting nukes will be paying close attention. Scary stuff.

32 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:34:00am

I've never read a terribly cheerful scenario of war with North Korea. At the very least, Seoul would be devastated.

33 SlartyBartfast  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:34:10am

TOTUS, regarding NK: "We inherited this mess..."

34 VegasRick  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:34:20am

re: #27 Bloodnok

In fairness there's not much he can do here. As this article points out military solutions are not really viable at this time and if they were there's a madman at the other end of things. So what other leverage do we have? All we can do is work on China at this point.

It'll get better later?

35 joncelli  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:34:23am

Um, the guy is making reference to a war game run by The Atlantic magazine? Why would that be any more reliable than one run by the US and SK?

36 OldLineTexan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:34:24am

re: #19 Bobibutu

Ditto SKorea.

IMO, China would be much less fearful and much more capable than South Korea. And the Chinese have proven they are not shy (ref. Tibet).

Who knows, the starving Norks may actually APPRECIATE being overrun by the totalitarian yet efficient and realistic ChiComs.

Almost anything has to be an improvement over the utter mental case in charge (supposedly) now.

Imagine a Chinese propaganda "attack", promising a new Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere*. It might work.

/usual 100 qatloo prize applies

37 VioletTiger  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:35:01am

Meanwhile, the One has talked of disarming--just when the kooks are arming up.

38 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:35:02am

re: #14 KenJen

This is what happens when you do nothing to a crazed man who's messing around with nukes. I'm hope Israel is learning from our mistakes.

It looks to me that NK is really doing sales presentations. They are demonstrating to terrorists & interested nations, that they have product.
Intimidating S Korea & Japan while humiliating the U.S is a nice side benefit.

39 unrealizedviewpoint  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:35:19am

re: #2 Guanxi88

No good options at all, it seems.

All us Arm Chair Generals seemingly have few options to offer.
:(

40 Baier  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:35:35am

re: #33 SlartyBartfast

TOTUS, regarding NK: "We inherited this mess..."

The Democrats inherit more than a Rockefeller.

41 OldLineTexan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:35:37am

re: #27 Bloodnok

In fairness there's not much he can do here. As this article points out military solutions are not really viable at this time and if they were there's a madman at the other end of things. So what other leverage do we have? All we can do is work on China at this point.

You are right, especially now that he has spent MONTHS telegraphing conciliatory messages, i.e. weakness, to the various petty and not-so-petty dictators and madmen of the world.

42 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:35:50am

Call me an optimistic old fool, but I don't think any of the truly nasty scenarios are going to happen.

As I pointed out last night, Kim Jong-Il is dying. He may think he has his finger on the nuclear button, but I doubt any insane orders would be obeyed. And anyway the stuff he has amounts to maybe 25 pounds of fissionable material. He can set off an underground test bomb, but putting it on a missile in deliverable, reliable form is another story.

What he does have is a lot of conventional rockets. But start firing those at SK and he's screwed.

The Great Leader groomed the Dear Leader for decades, helping him build his power base well in advance of his accession to the throne. Dear Leader's favorite son, in contrast, is in his twenties and I somehow doubt he'll manage to hold the family power more than five minutes before the praetorian guard declares some colonel to be emperor.

Things will then move very fast. I would not be surprised to see a variation on the Berlin Wall scene played out within days of Kim's demise. Just as you're going to see things you wouldn't have expected two days before the minute Castro's death is announced.

My two cents.

43 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:36:08am

re: #36 OldLineTexan

Imagine a Chinese propaganda "attack", promising a new Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere*. It might work.

Interesting scenario. And it might actually be the least-worst of the feasible options.

44 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:36:16am

Given some of the South Koreans I've met, I feel sorry for the NorKos if they invade.

45 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:36:22am
46 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:36:23am

re: #7 turn

“Any of the U.S. options described above could trigger uncontrollable escalation that would create appalling casualties on both sides of the DMZ and promise a Pyrrhic victory at best."

yep, we're powerless to do anything about it.

And letting North Korea build enough nukes and export them to anyone with the money, including Iran and Al Qaeda, is supposed to sound like a good idea?

47 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:36:26am

re: #32 Occasional Reader

I've never read a terribly cheerful scenario of war with North Korea. At the very least, Seoul the entire peninsula as well as a good part of Japan would be devastated.

sorry ,,, ftfy

48 MandyManners  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:36:38am

re: #32 Occasional Reader

I've never read a terribly cheerful scenario of war with North Korea. At the very least, Seoul would be devastated.

And, Tokyo.

49 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:37:09am

re: #37 VioletTiger

Meanwhile, the One has talked of disarming--just when the kooks are arming up.

If we refuse to lead, everyone is going to arm up. They have to, because our refusal to lead and act will lead to wars on the periphery.

50 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:37:47am
51 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:37:49am

re: #14 KenJen

This is what happens when you do nothing to a crazed man who's messing around with nukes. I'm hope Israel is learning from our mistakes.

Israel already got rid of its Obama (Olmert).
And Olmert is much tougher than Obama.

52 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:00am

re: #42 Cato the Elder

Things will then move very fast. I would not be surprised to see a variation on the Berlin Wall scene played out within days of Kim's demise.

I certainly hope you're right. But the descriptions I've read tend to suggest that the North Korean people have, by and large, "drunk the Kool-Aid". They are not comparable to the people in the Soviet bloc circa 1989, very few of whom believed in the system any more.

53 OldLineTexan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:03am

re: #42 Cato the Elder

Good point. In any near-time change of leadership, Kim III is kim-chi.

/

54 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:04am

re: #48 MandyManners

And, Tokyo.

Because of where on the island it is Tokyo may well be spared, but a good portion of the southwest part of the country would be in danger

55 Lincolntf  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:05am

re: #38 opnion

You're probably right. But there's always the chance that Kim Jong Il really is the comic-book supervillain that he looks like. It's not inconceivable that he'll lob a nuke at someone before his time on Earth is up.

56 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:18am
57 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:21am
58 VioletTiger  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:30am

re: #49 Dianna

If we refuse to lead, everyone is going to arm up. They have to, because our refusal to lead and act will lead to wars on the periphery.

You are right. We are were a huge deterrent.

59 Ben Hur  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:40am

re: #32 Occasional Reader

I've never read a terribly cheerful scenario of war with North Korea. At the very least, Seoul would be devastated.

Are they that well trained, etc?

I would think that our technology would counter their numbers.

60 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:41am

re: #42 Cato the Elder

I hope you're right.

61 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:56am

re: #15 opnion

No matter what help we want from China, we are not likely to get much.
China is afraid to create instability in NK & create chaos.
Their realistic fear is that millions of starving refugees would stream into China.

What does China would think would happen in case of war?
They might prefer to deal with the refugees in connection with a regime change.

62 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:38:59am

re: #32 Occasional Reader

I've never read a terribly cheerful scenario of war with North Korea. At the very least, Seoul would be devastated.

Unless you go the preemptive route, which will never happen.

63 Bloodnok  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:39:00am

re: #34 VegasRick

It'll get better later?

It may never get to a point where we can invade without Seoul being hit.

64 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:39:06am

Nobody wants war with North Korea. US & South Korea would eventually win, but hundreds of thousands would die in the process. Both China & South Korea fear a rapid collapse of the regime which would result in millions of refugees swarming the borders. China fears Korean re-unification in which case Beijing would lose a client state to the Western democratic side. What China wants, and it is her price for help, is that North Korea morphs into a Chinese client state and cheap labor pool. I believe this deal has already been made. The US price for conceding North Korea to China is for China to continue to buy US Treasury bonds. Remember Hillary's trip to Beijing in January? She was conspicuously quiet about China's abysmal human rights record while talking up the US economic bailout plan.

65 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:39:48am

Has this report already been mentioned:

North Korea threatens war as it tears up 50-year armistice

From that link:
'North Korea announced today that it is abandoning the Armistice that brought an end to the Korean War 56 years ago, and threatened war if there was any effort to search its ships for weapons of mass destruction.
The announcements came after reports that the North has restarted its plutonium reactor, which generates the explosive material for its nuclear arsenal, including the warhead that it successfully tested on Monday. South Korea reported an increase in patrols by North Korean fighter jets along the border between the two states. '

66 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:40:15am

Much as I detest Obama's foreign policy, frankly, there aren't many good US options here.

Sanctions aren't likely to be effective, and that leaves either ignoring N. Korea. Re-kindling the Korean war would be disastrous.

67 kansas  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:40:26am

North Korea's military says it considers South Korea's participation in a U.S.-led program to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction tantamount to a declaration of war against the North.

So War has been declared. Is this the test of Obama's spine of steel?

68 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:40:32am

re: #44 Dianna

Given some of the South Koreans I've met, I feel sorry for the NorKos if they invade.

ROK troops are some of the best & most ruthless in the world.
In Viet Nam they didn't worry with housing POWs , There weren't any.
The problem is that China would support the North if necessary & then we would have a decision.

69 KenJen  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:40:51am

Has Hillary even commented on this situation? Is she hiding in Cheney's old bunker?/

70 capitalist piglet  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:41:14am

re: #52 Occasional Reader

I certainly hope you're right. But the descriptions I've read tend to suggest that the North Korean people have, by and large, "drunk the Kool-Aid". They are not comparable to the people in the Soviet bloc circa 1989, very few of whom believed in the system any more.

I read a book written by a young man whose father (after having been imprisoned at least once) got his family across the border to South Korea. Even though he couldn't speak his mind and lived on rats and bark, he thought North Korea was the greatest country in the world.

71 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:41:18am

re: #48 MandyManners

And, Tokyo.

I may be wrong, but I don't know if the Norks have the means to do that. It's doubtful they have the capacity to make a nuke small enough to put on a missile yet. Their bomber force is made up of pretty obsolete aircraft. Japan has an excellent air force, and missile defense capability.

72 MandyManners  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:41:21am

re: #49 Dianna

If we refuse to lead, everyone is going to arm up. They have to, because our refusal to lead and act will lead to wars on the periphery.

Thoughts such as this make me long for the periwinkle.

73 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:41:50am
74 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:00am

re: #49 Dianna

If we refuse to lead, everyone is going to arm up. They have to, because our refusal to lead and act will lead to wars on the periphery.

/I feel so much safer with the One™ in charge.

75 Lincolntf  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:03am

re: #69 KenJen

She doesn't have to comment, she only "listens". Isn't that the new policy?

76 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:03am

re: #38 opnion

It looks to me that NK is really doing sales presentations. They are demonstrating to terrorists & interested nations, that they have product.
Intimidating S Korea & Japan while humiliating the U.S is a nice side benefit.

And that's why they consider an embargo an act of war. They can't get paid if they can't deliver.

77 Rexatosis  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:07am

Nothing can be done militarily regarding North Korea without China, a lesson learned during the Korean War. The least bad solution it seems to me would be for the Chinese Red Army to overthrow the North Korean government. However China is not prepared to handle the resulting humanitarian chaos. Given the agricultural strength of the United States we may (should/must) be able to provide much of the food relief a Chinese military operation into North Korea would need. A side benefit of such a Chinese military commitment into North Korea would be the resulting drain on the Chinese Military as it dealt with running North Korea, such actions would lessen or forestall potential conflict over Taiwan.

78 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:11am

re: #68 opnion

ROK troops are some of the best & most ruthless in the world.
In Viet Nam they didn't worry with housing POWs , There weren't any.
The problem is that China would support the North if necessary & then we would have a decision.

Last time around, China cut its losses the second Stalin died.

This time, they won't let their losses begin.

79 Bloodnok  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:37am

re: #41 OldLineTexan

You are right, especially now that he has spent MONTHS telegraphing conciliatory messages, i.e. weakness, to the various petty and not-so-petty dictators and madmen of the world.

This I agree with.

80 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:39am

re: #55 Lincolntf

You're probably right. But there's always the chance that Kim Jong Il really is the comic-book supervillain that he looks like. It's not inconceivable that he'll lob a nuke at someone before his time on Earth is up.

Yeah, he is a nut & that makes it tougher to gauge his intentions.

81 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:41am

re: #35 joncelli

It wasn't really a "war game" so much as a round table discussion by various experts invited by The Atlantic.

82 Mithrax  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:42:56am

To be perfectly honest, I can't figure out why North Korea hasn't attacked yet.

They've got the US almost right where they want it: a seemingly weak president, seeming exhaustion from Iraq and Afghanistan, and pretty much little political will for the US to go it alone.

NK has shown that while it may not be able to make a mini nuke to fit on a missile, can always make an air dropped bomb, and they've got Japan (and SKorea) shitting bricks at the moment when they really aren't keen on militarizing any more.

Dear Leader really has -nothing- left to lose for himself, he's dying and his son probably can't/won't hold onto power.

I just can't figure it out.

Let's hope that Dear Leader doesn't start thinking like me either.

83 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:43:29am

re: #67 kansas

North Korea's military says it considers South Korea's participation in a U.S.-led program to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction tantamount to a declaration of war against the North.

So War has been declared. Is this the test of Obama's spine of steel?


I think so. Its saber rattling. Rhetoric (talk) is cheap.

Its "war" when the lead starts flying.

I wouldn't put it past the Norkers to escalate things in a controlled way to test Obama further. EG, lets see what he does when the Norkers actually shoot at something, or take a ship captive.

84 wiffersnapper  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:43:38am

Let's ask Ron Paul what we should do!

85 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:43:43am

re: #76 Kosh's Shadow

And that's why they consider an embargo an act of war. They can't get paid if they can't deliver.

Yup, gotta have the delivery routes open.

86 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:43:45am

re: #12 grahamski

The little tyrant is testing the ZERO, and the ZERO is failing miserably.

How?

87 Pawn of the Oppressor  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:44:06am

North Korea worries me. The leadership really is insane, and the population there has been isolated and indoctrinated to a degree that I doubt the Soviets ever achieved. I don't think KJI is really predictable, he has the bomb, and he has enough lunatics to follow him in whatever he does.

Really the entire NK government should be treated like any other terrorist organization - "cut the head off the snake" with some kind of decisive strike on his location, but short of a nuke on Pyongyang that would be a waste of time, and of course, nuking Kim's house is not the correct thing to do.

I think somebody will lose a city to a Nork/Iranian supplied nuke before the world at large decides that it really can't tolerate this stuff.

88 Honorary Yooper  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:44:08am

re: #68 opnion

ROK troops are some of the best & most ruthless in the world.
In Viet Nam they didn't worry with housing POWs , There weren't any.
The problem is that China would support the North if necessary & then we would have a decision.

If China were to support the North, then we'd be right back at 1950-53 all over again. Only this time, most of the players have nukes, and at least one of them would not be afraid to use them.

89 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:44:23am
90 saberry0530  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:44:29am

re: #72 MandyManners

OK Mandy, Its time for "The Saying"

91 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:44:47am

re: #76 Kosh's Shadow

And that's why they consider an embargo an act of war. They can't get paid if they can't deliver.

I think I recall that stopping and searching the ships of a sovereign nation on the high seas is, indeed, an act of war. Or, at least, a close call.

92 Baier  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:45:07am

re: #66 looking closely

Much as I detest Obama's foreign policy, frankly, there aren't many good US options here.

Sanctions aren't likely to be effective, and that leaves either ignoring N. Korea. Re-kindling the Korean war would be disastrous.

It is a tough situation. Wouldn't be awful to find ourselves in the same scenario with Iran a few years from now? The way things are going, we will be. Let's hope Obama is learning a lesson right now on how hard it is to deal with nuclear armed despots.

93 J.S.  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:45:33am

re: #69 KenJen

She's begging the Soviets for assistance...(oops, I mean the Russians). Meanwhile the United Nations is proposing to draft a wery, wery, strongly worded letter addressed to Dear Leader...

94 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:45:43am

re: #30 Baier

Now with the US out of the game the rest of the world will step up...yeah right!
So of course, the next Republican president is going to have clean up the foreign policy mess made by the democrats, and then get blamed for the mess. Then the democrats will get runon how they are better at foreign policy...the cycle continues...

But Obama has only been President since January. Which mess did the Democrats create?

95 Guanxi88  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:45:49am

re: #91 Dianna

I think I recall that stopping and searching the ships of a sovereign nation on the high seas is, indeed, an act of war. Or, at least, a close call.

Ahh, but NorK ships don't generally sail under their own colors, or, indeed, under any colors at all. Unflagged ships can be stopped.

96 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:45:49am

re: #82 Mithrax

To be perfectly honest, I can't figure out why North Korea hasn't attacked yet.


This *IS* their attack.

The reason they haven't launched a conventional military attack is because they'd lose.

Obama may be weak, but he'd still have to respond to a direct attack, and he'd have pretty broad domestic, as well as global support too.

97 calcajun  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:45:50am

One word--Brinksmanship. This is a throw back to the old 1950's Soviet playbook. Nork will not do anything, though, if it feels for a moment that China does not have its back.

98 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:10am
99 Baier  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:14am

re: #91 Dianna

I think I recall that stopping and searching the ships of a sovereign nation on the high seas is, indeed, an act of war. Or, at least, a close call.

Isn't that a blockade when you stop and search ships? One step up from and embargo, right?

100 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:16am

re: #65 yma o hyd

Has this report already been mentioned:

North Korea threatens war as it tears up 50-year armistice

From that link:
'North Korea announced today that it is abandoning the Armistice that brought an end to the Korean War 56 years ago, and threatened war if there was any effort to search its ships for weapons of mass destruction.
The announcements came after reports that the North has restarted its plutonium reactor, which generates the explosive material for its nuclear arsenal, including the warhead that it successfully tested on Monday. South Korea reported an increase in patrols by North Korean fighter jets along the border between the two states. '

Not to make light of this, but the NORK AF is not very credible. According to wiki, out of the approx. 470 fighter jets in their inventory, 190 are MiG-21 derivatives (a 40+ year old design), another 200+ are the far older MiG-17s & 19s. The only modern jet in their inventory is the Mig-29, of which they are flying 35 examples. Their Air Force is no threat, their artillery across the DMZ is.

101 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:23am

re: #59 Ben Hur

Are they that well trained, etc?

I would think that our technology would counter their numbers.

As someone (I don't recall who) once observed, "quantity has a quality all its own". There are just too damn many rockets and artillery tubes pointing south; it would be very hard to take out a substantial number of them before they could lay down a whole lot of hurt on the South Koreans.

102 Sheepdogess  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:29am

China could have nipped this one in the bud years ago.

103 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:40am

re: #78 Dianna

Last time around, China cut its losses the second Stalin died.

This time, they won't let their losses begin.

For China to stand around & watch , I think that they would have to have firm assurances that a hostile regime to them would not be installed.
Futher they would want the UN or some agency to take care of the refugees.

104 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:46:54am

re: #72 MandyManners

Thoughts such as this make me long for the periwinkle.

No marigolds in the promised land
There's a hole in the ground
Where they used to grow
Any man left on the rio grande
Is the king of the world
As far as I know


---Steely Dan

105 MandyManners  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:47:12am

re: #90 saberry0530

OK Mandy, Its time for "The Saying"

I tend to use it sparingly.

106 unreconstructed rebel  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:47:50am

re: #87 Pawn of the Oppressor

I think somebody will lose a city to a Nork/Iranian supplied nuke before the world at large decides that it really can't tolerate this stuff.

Do you really think the world a large might go to bat over Seoul?

I'm doubtful. They did absolutely nothing about Kuwait until H.W led the way.

107 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:48:09am

re: #88 Honorary Yooper

If China were to support the North, then we'd be right back at 1950-53 all over again. Only this time, most of the players have nukes, and at least one of them would not be afraid to use them.

This just illustrates how Kim has got things all fouled up.

108 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:48:16am

re: #78 Dianna

Last time around, China cut its losses the second Stalin died.

What?! I thought those were all "volunteers", who just spontaneously streamed across the border to help their glorious communist neighbor?!

/

109 KenJen  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:48:16am

re: #84 wiffersnapper

Let's ask Ron Paul what we should do!

Oh, go fly a blimp!//

110 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:48:40am

re: #82 Mithrax

To be perfectly honest, I can't figure out why North Korea hasn't attacked yet.

They've got the US almost right where they want it: a seemingly weak president, seeming exhaustion from Iraq and Afghanistan, and pretty much little political will for the US to go it alone.

NK has shown that while it may not be able to make a mini nuke to fit on a missile, can always make an air dropped bomb, and they've got Japan (and SKorea) shitting bricks at the moment when they really aren't keen on militarizing any more.

Dear Leader really has -nothing- left to lose for himself, he's dying and his son probably can't/won't hold onto power.

I just can't figure it out.

Let's hope that Dear Leader doesn't start thinking like me either.

See my post above.

I don't think Dear Leader is calling the shots. He thinks he is, because if he says "fire off a long-range test missile" or "test another A-bomb" they do it. But let him say "Armageddon time, I'm dying" and see what happens. The military leaders, like everybody else, want to remain breathing and in power. Their only chance is to seize it for themselves. And even then I'm betting the whole edifice comes tumbling down once DL is dead.

I expect to see a united Korea within a year.

111 samsgran1948  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:48:52am

re: #36 OldLineTexan

IMO, China would be much less fearful and much more capable than South Korea. And the Chinese have proven they are not shy (ref. Tibet).

Who knows, the starving Norks may actually APPRECIATE being overrun by the totalitarian yet efficient and realistic ChiComs.

Almost anything has to be an improvement over the utter mental case in charge (supposedly) now.

Imagine a Chinese propaganda "attack", promising a new Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere*. It might work.

/usual 100 qatloo prize applies

I read someplace that China isn't so much afraid of the starving millions as they are of the well armed hundreds of thousands NORK soldiers turned bandits running around loose in China shooting up everything in sight.

112 unreconstructed rebel  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:49:05am

re: #97 calcajun

One word--Brinksmanship. This is a throw back to the old 1950's Soviet playbook. Nork will not do anything, though, if it feels for a moment that China does not have its back.

I am afraid they may believe they have China over a barrel.

113 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:49:18am

re: #104 Kosh's Shadow

Always have to upding a Steely Dan quote.

114 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:49:23am

re: #100 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

The only modern jet in their inventory is the Mig-29, of which they are flying 35 examples.

And, as the same article notes, the pilots probably get very, very little in-the-air training time. The air war would probably not be the hard part.

115 Guanxi88  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:49:33am

re: #106 unreconstructed rebel

Do you really think the world a large might go to bat over Seoul?

I'm doubtful. They did absolutely nothing about Kuwait until H.W led the way.

The devastation, or even threatened devastation, of a leading financial capitol at a time of worldwide recession would be enough to push us over into full-on Global Depression. This may be part of the strategy of the NorKs, obtaining economic effects from displays of belligerence, on the theory that paying them off would be cheaper than sustaining ongoing economic harm

116 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:49:49am

RE: China

You all have to remember one VERY important thing. Unlike the 50's China is tied to us very tightly due to the financial situtaion in the world. True, China still backs North Korea but I think if NorK did anything rash (over and above the sabre rattling it's doing now) China would think long and hard before jumping in "their" side. China KNOWS due to the US and Souths capability that the North would be wiped out. After that, what is the upside for China if they had jumped in?

117 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:49:58am

re: #99 Baier

Isn't that a blockade when you stop and search ships? One step up from and embargo, right?

A blockade, as far as I recall - and I'm not military, and certainly not an expert, so keep that in mind - is set to prevent all commerce in and out of ports.

An embargo is intended to prevent certain goods, usually those of a military purpose, from entering or leaving. It's usually laid on neutral shipping, if my memory serves, which it may not.

118 debutaunt  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:50:02am

re: #66 looking closely

Much as I detest Obama's foreign policy, frankly, there aren't many good US options here.

Sanctions aren't likely to be effective, and that leaves either ignoring N. Korea. Re-kindling the Korean war would be disastrous.

The Won is out campaigning, so the administration is taking care of this problem for him.

119 VegasRick  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:50:03am

re: #110 Cato the Elder

See my post above.

I don't think Dear Leader is calling the shots. He thinks he is, because if he says "fire off a long-range test missile" or "test another A-bomb" they do it. But let him say "Armageddon time, I'm dying" and see what happens. The military leaders, like everybody else, want to remain breathing and in power. Their only chance is to seize it for themselves. And even then I'm betting the whole edifice comes tumbling down once DL is dead.

I expect to see a united Korea within a year.

What are you smoking?

120 lostlakehiker  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:50:20am

Any war with North Korea would be a very bloody affair. At an absolute minimum, there would be the civilian casualties in Seoul...NK has a huge conventional arsenal, well dug in and within easy range of the city. No imaginable string of mighty victories could prevent the delivery of much of that huge munitions dump on target over Seoul.

Then there is the matter of NK's nuclear arsenal. They have missiles, they have fissile material, and we know (as they know) that they have a working design. Where one is tested, three to six are in reserve. Assuming half work and some fraction gets through the defenses, some city somewhere gets hit.

NK's infantry may be underfed and equipped with weapons a generation behind the time. Set against that, if we must attack them in their mountain fortress, expect slow going. The Japanese on Iwo Jima were heavily outnumbered and totally outgunned. We won. So to speak. In any short war with NK, we would not even have the NK army seriously outnumbered.

If we stand on the defensive and blockade NK, that means millions of civilian famine victims in the North. Killing masses of civilians by way of blockade has long been considered a legitimate part of war. Still, it's bad karma. Even on the attack, for that matter, the NK army could be dangerous. From time to time, suicidal bravery suffices to win control of some terrain feature that simply must be retaken. Hamburger Hill situations would be inevitable.

Happy endings arise only out of continued peace in the peninsula. But continuing peace cannot be achieved, if it is possible at all, through concessions meant to buy peace in our time. No peace built on NK's earning its daily bread through threats, weapons trafficking, WMD trafficking, and tribute in exchange for temporary pullbacks in the pace of the above, can endure.

These are sobering times. All the options are bad. Some are much worse than others. But which ones?

121 Salamantis  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:50:40am

re: #38 opnion

It looks to me that NK is really doing sales presentations. They are demonstrating to terrorists & interested nations, that they have product.
Intimidating S Korea & Japan while humiliating the U.S is a nice side benefit.

re: #65 yma o hyd

Has this report already been mentioned:

North Korea threatens war as it tears up 50-year armistice

From that link:
'North Korea announced today that it is abandoning the Armistice that brought an end to the Korean War 56 years ago, and threatened war if there was any effort to search its ships for weapons of mass destruction.
The announcements came after reports that the North has restarted its plutonium reactor, which generates the explosive material for its nuclear arsenal, including the warhead that it successfully tested on Monday. South Korea reported an increase in patrols by North Korean fighter jets along the border between the two states. '

It is useless to possesss a proven product unless you are also able to deliver it to buyers. So the Norks are working on that aspect, too.

122 Desert Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:50:48am

re: #110 Cato the Elder

I hope you are right. The best case scenario is for the Norks to collapse and open up once Kim dies. I hope that happens. However, I would not put much faith in the military dictators that will take his place. They are part of the system that has ran that place and will not easily give up their power.

123 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:09am

re: #119 VegasRick

What are you smoking?

Not the "Obama is weak and a secret commie, we're all gonna die" ganja making the rounds here this morning.

124 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:09am

re: #106 unreconstructed rebel

Do you really think the world a large might go to bat over Seoul?

I'm doubtful. They did absolutely nothing about Kuwait until H.W led the way.


I think you're right. If not for the US, Kuwait would now be a state of Saddam's empire. Obama may yet be shamed by his inaction, but the cost (the loss of some major country) might be high.

125 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:09am

re: #108 Occasional Reader

What?! I thought those were all "volunteers", who just spontaneously streamed across the border to help their glorious communist neighbor?!

/

That was the story, but at the Chosin Reservoir U.S troops ran right into Chinese regulars.

126 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:21am

re: #98 buzzsawmonkey

Iran & North Korea are closely co-operating on their nuclear programs. Somebody once mentioned it as an "Axis of Evil" and has been mocked ever since.

I'm still waiting for Obama to say "Gee, Bush was right after all!" instead of "Here's another problem I inherited"

127 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:26am

re: #116 sattv4u2

RE: China

You all have to remember one VERY important thing. Unlike the 50's China is tied to us very tightly due to the financial situtaion in the world. True, China still backs North Korea but I think if NorK did anything rash (over and above the sabre rattling it's doing now) China would think long and hard before jumping in "their" side. China KNOWS due to the US and Souths capability that the North would be wiped out. After that, what is the upside for China if they had jumped in?

China will then sell us their cheap cars to replace the ones the bombed South Korean and Japanese car factories produced.
/possible

128 danshelb  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:35am

Why does this remind me so much of Iran in 3 years?
a. Crazy Madman leader - check
b. No fear of ignoring sanctions or "strongly worded resolutions" - check
c. Nuclear Weapons - check

We shouldn't be in this situation, and for that I blame members of both sides of the aisle and at least the last 2 Prez administrations. I don't know how much longer "talking" to NKor will do any good. Even if this is only a game of chicken with them, they will have proven that you can launch missiles and test nukes, in direct violation of the US and "International Community"'s wishes with no consequences.

/bad mojo

129 lawhawk  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:36am

re: #110 Cato the Elder

United Korea is the endgame, and the saber rattling is all to influence that outcome. The North wants to determine the who, what, when, and how of the reuniting of the Korean peninsula.

130 NJDhockeyfan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:43am

Can't we send another basketball for peace?

131 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:51:44am

re: #82 Mithrax

To be perfectly honest, I can't figure out why North Korea hasn't attacked yet.

They've got the US almost right where they want it: a seemingly weak president, seeming exhaustion from Iraq and Afghanistan, and pretty much little political will for the US to go it alone.

NK has shown that while it may not be able to make a mini nuke to fit on a missile, can always make an air dropped bomb, and they've got Japan (and SKorea) shitting bricks at the moment when they really aren't keen on militarizing any more.

Dear Leader really has -nothing- left to lose for himself, he's dying and his son probably can't/won't hold onto power.

I just can't figure it out.

Let's hope that Dear Leader doesn't start thinking like me either.

Because Conservatives believe Obama is weak, it doesn't necessarily follow that the rest of the world believes that.

132 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:52:03am

re: #109 KenJen

Oh, go fly a blimp!//

From the article:

Some U.S. and South Korean commandos made airborne jumps together from a helium blimp

The Ron Berets!

133 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:52:21am

re: #114 Occasional Reader

And, as the same article notes, the pilots probably get very, very little in-the-air training time. The air war would probably not be the hard part.

Poland has more MiG-29s than North Korea.

134 subsailor68  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:52:29am

Interestingly, NK has a precedent by which they may very well be calculating potential US responses to their activities:

U.S.S. Pueblo

And the Pueblo has never been returned. According to the article:

USS Pueblo is one of the primary tourist attractions in Pyongyang, North Korea, having attracted over 250,000 visitors since being moved to the Taedong River.

135 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:52:57am
136 unrealizedviewpoint  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:07am

re: #84 wiffersnapper

Let's ask Ron Paul what we should do!

I was thinking maybe before any decisions, Code Pinks opinion should be had.

137 turn  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:15am

re: #46 Kosh's Shadow

And letting North Korea build enough nukes and export them to anyone with the money, including Iran and Al Qaeda, is supposed to sound like a good idea?

Short of preemptively nuking the norkos there is no solution that I can foresee. Taking out little kim probably wouldn't change the situation either. This is a fucking mess that's for sure, glad O, Joe and Hil are in charge!
/

138 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:20am

re: #112 unreconstructed rebel

I am afraid they may believe they have China over a barrel.


I agree. China needs a prosperous US for it's own financial aims, and it has been helping North Korea because it has to. It really is caught in the middle. And a weakened US doesn't help anyone.

139 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:21am

re: #111 samsgran1948

I read someplace that China isn't so much afraid of the starving millions as they are of the well armed hundreds of thousands NORK soldiers turned bandits running around loose in China shooting up everything in sight.

Now that is an interesting thought, and one I'm more impressed by than the notion that China is in the least worried about starving refugees.

140 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:21am

re: #110 Cato the Elder

Why would the edifice crumble when Kim dies? They've been grooming his 3rd son to take over and by all reports he's as ruthless and malignant as Dad & Granddad. The generals would close ranks around him as their best hope of survival.

141 Sabnen  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:38am

re: #61 Kosh's Shadow

What does China would think would happen in case of war?
They might prefer to deal with the refugees in connection with a regime change.

I was thinking the same thing.

North Korea is China's abomination of a creation. Having to feed refugees would be an 'easy' way out for them after foisting this political experiment of 50 years on the North Korean people.

Wanna be a world power, China? Okay, time to step up.

142 DaddyG  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:39am

Don't Panic! At this very moment The One is going through the line item budget of Hyundai motors and coming up with a restructuring plan. //

143 danshelb  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:53:53am

re: #131 Flyers1974

They may not think he is "weak" per se, but I do believe the rest of the world thinks he is unwilling to use force in virtually any situation.

144 Desert Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:54:16am

re: #116 sattv4u2

RE: China

You all have to remember one VERY important thing. Unlike the 50's China is tied to us very tightly due to the financial situtaion in the world. True, China still backs North Korea but I think if NorK did anything rash (over and above the sabre rattling it's doing now) China would think long and hard before jumping in "their" side. China KNOWS due to the US and Souths capability that the North would be wiped out. After that, what is the upside for China if they had jumped in?

Tough choice?

Remain in the community of nations and continue to enjoy the prosperity that has brought China?

OR, Stand by the worst country in the world as they rattle sabers and threaten China's biggest trading partners?

It SHOULD be easy for the Chinese to chose. I wonder why they are so hestitant. They could make more money from a unified Korea. I do not recall any events in recent history that suggest Korea has ever been expansionist. A unifed Korea would mean more customers for China and less money going down the drain like it is now in North Korea.

145 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:54:17am

re: #129 lawhawk

United Korea is the endgame, and the saber rattling is all to influence that outcome. The North wants to determine the who, what, when, and how of the reuniting of the Korean peninsula.

Won't work. His people are starving. The South will win based on daily caloric intake alone.

146 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:54:26am

re: #125 opnion

That was the story, but at the Chosin Reservoir U.S troops ran right into Chinese regulars.

I love the "volunteers" who flew the brand new MiG-15s for the North Koreans in the Korean War, most of whom had last names ending in "ov" & "ski".

147 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:54:32am

re: #121 Salamantis

Imo, these tests are the equivalent of a power point sales presentation.

148 MandyManners  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:54:39am

How sick is Lil' Kim?

149 Beholden  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:54:56am

This is why you NEVER let lunatics get weapons of mass destruction! Why is this so damned hard to understand?

Anyone worried about Iran yet?

150 Baier  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:55:39am

re: #130 NJDhockeyfan

Can't we send another basketball for peace?

Maybe we send Clinton over with a reset button from an Atari 2600. It may not work, but they'll be blown away by the technology at least.

151 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:55:40am

re: #145 Cato the Elder

Won't work. His people are starving. The South will win based on daily caloric intake alone.

The Army isn't. All the food is going to them, not the rest of the people.

152 Lincolntf  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:55:54am

re: #119 VegasRick

Kinda reminds me of all the people who've spent a decade or two telling me that "student uprisings" and "moderate clerics" will regain control of the country "next year".
Next year takes forever to get here.

153 Honorary Yooper  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:55:55am

re: #83 looking closely

I think so. Its saber rattling. Rhetoric (talk) is cheap.

Its "war" when the lead starts flying.

I wouldn't put it past the Norkers to escalate things in a controlled way to test Obama further. EG, lets see what he does when the Norkers actually shoot at something, or take a ship captive.

Such as what happened to the USS Pueblo in 1968?

154 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:55:58am

re: #126 Kenneth

Iran & North Korea are closely co-operating on their nuclear programs. Somebody once mentioned it as an "Axis of Evil" and has been mocked ever since.

I'm still waiting for Obama to say "Gee, Bush was right after all!" instead of "Here's another problem I inherited"

I would not cease other activities while waiting. Obama is not big on admitting that he is wrong.

155 Red Pencil  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:56:03am

re: #147 opnion

Imo, these tests are the equivalent of a power point sales presentation.

Love them missile shaped bullet points.

156 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:56:12am

Just wondering what Japan is doing and will be doing.

They were not happy with the UN (and FCBBHO) at the NK missile test in April this year.

In 1950/53 they were still just recovering from the devastations of WWII - this time round they aren't.
Weren't there some indications that the militarists are gaining ground?

157 Jimmah  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:56:12am

What is North Korea's game plan?

[Link: news.bbc.co.uk...]

"North Korea is on a road to nowhere."

158 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:56:18am

re: #148 MandyManners

How sick is Lil' Kim?

She fooled around with Biggie Smalls & Tupac, you tell me.
/

159 Occasional Reader  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:56:31am

re: #125 opnion

That was the story, but at the Chosin Reservoir U.S troops ran right into Chinese regulars.

I'm shocked... shocked! I was totally sure that those were all just independent Chinese citizens, who just happened to have a T-34 and some heavy artillery sitting in the garage, and decided to volunteer of their own independent accord.

160 Lincolntf  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:14am

re: #152 Lincolntf

Duh, I was talking about Iran. Prob. should've mentioned that.

161 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:21am

re: #140 Kenneth

Why would the edifice crumble when Kim dies? They've been grooming his 3rd son to take over and by all reports he's as ruthless and malignant as Dad & Granddad. The generals would close ranks around him as their best hope of survival.

I may well be wrong, but I don't think the dynasty will survive the moment of flux.

162 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:28am

re: #143 danshelb

They may not think he is "weak" per se, but I do believe the rest of the world thinks he is unwilling to use force in virtually any situation.

If I was the leader of some other country I'm not sure I'd want to test that theory.

163 Desert Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:32am

re: #114 Occasional Reader

And, as the same article notes, the pilots probably get very, very little in-the-air training time. The air war would probably not be the hard part.

I would expect the Norks Air Force and Navy to be wiped out in the first few moments of any large scale action. Their army is large, but the South and the US forces would wipe them out in time as well. It's their entrenched artillery and missile capability that presents problems for us. Even if they are poorly manned and trained, they could still inflict a heavy, heavy toll on the South (and maybe even Japan). I hope that never happens.

164 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:35am

re: #126 Kenneth

Iran & North Korea are closely co-operating on their nuclear programs. Somebody once mentioned it as an "Axis of Evil" and has been mocked ever since.

I'm still waiting for Obama to say "Gee, Bush was right after all!" instead of "Here's another problem I inherited"


You'll be waiting forever for that one.

If you want to see Obama's acknowledgment that Bush was right, just look at his policies.

165 J.S.  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:39am

re: #123 Cato the Elder

Who on this thread has said Obama's a "commie?" (Hilary Clinton has asked Russia for assistance -- it's because Russia this month chairs the Security Council. Clinton is not talking about "sanctions" but about having a "strong document" written...link here..)

166 Dave the.....  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:44am

As nasty as they are, China is relatively civilized when compared to NK. And yes, they don't want to go back to the says of Mao (or so you would think). Keep selling cheap stuff to the west seems much better then nuclear war.

167 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:57:59am

re: #123 Cato the Elder

Not the "Obama is weak and a secret commie, we're all gonna die" ganja making the rounds here this morning.

I'm not smoking any ganja. However, I'm not impressed with the Obama administration's responses. I'm worried, very seriously, that KJI will step blithely over the brink, and never mind your view. The fact is, we don't know what's going on inside that regime, and sanity requires ways of keeping perspective that we haven't observed in North Korea.

168 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:08am

re: #149 Beholden

This is why you NEVER let lunatics get weapons of mass destruction! Why is this so damned hard to understand?

Anyone worried about Iran yet?

Course not!

///

169 Desert Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:14am

re: #146 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

I love the "volunteers" who flew the brand new MiG-15s for the North Koreans in the Korean War, most of whom had last names ending in "ov" & "ski".

Blond haired, blue-eyed, vodka drinking Chinese pilots?

170 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:15am

re: #153 Honorary Yooper

Such as what happened to the USS Pueblo in 1968?

Which was the most outrageous of incidents by the NORKS in 1968. They were running a low-lever guerrilla war along the DMZ then, in hopes of opening up a second front while we were tied down in Vietnam.

171 Tommy  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:21am

Congress needs to have a hearing on this, just invite Hawkeye, BJ Col. Potter, Hot Lips, and Radar, they will fill them in for sure. After that, BO can just talk to N. Korea, give billions more in aid, and everything will be fine!

172 oldschool  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:31am

Look at the positives. We have the wife of the man who allowed the North to get a nuke as Secretary Of State. Uhh wait. We have a President who is known for his patriotism and support of the military. No that's not it. The party in power is known for it's unwavering defense of this country and what it stands for. Ahhh, Never mind start worrying,,,

173 realwest  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:32am

re: #9 simonml Sorry for the late response, but just got a break from doing chores!
I don't trust Obama's economic and domestic policies or thoughts.
But as I suggested on the DT, he is OUR President and IF it ever escalates to a shooting war, I sure as heck wish him the very best of luck and advisors for OUR sake.

174 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:58:39am

re: #148 MandyManners

How sick is Lil' Kim?

Unknown. There is some suspicion he's had a stroke, and that he might be dying.

But proving it? That's harder.

175 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:59:04am

re: #154 opnion

I would not cease other activities while waiting. Obama is not big on admitting that he is wrong.

Which president has ever been big on admitting when he is wrong in the history of the country?

176 lawhawk  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:59:11am

re: #131 Flyers1974

Some may think it's weakness. Others may misinterpret restraint as weakness (which has repeatedly been the case in the Middle East - where for example Palestinians think Israel is ripe for attack because Israel doesn't respond after every terror attack, or that the US was the weak horse because it absorbed terror attack after attack until 9/11, etc.)

Right now, all these regimes are testing the limits of what the US can or can't do - and the Administration is scurrying about trying to deal with these issues when it's still on a very steep learning curve. Those regimes have the benefit of plotting for the long term, while this Administration is busy running a perpetual campaign. It's a difference in worldview and politics that is dangerous for US foreign policy as the nation needs a President to defend US national interests rather than apologizing for our doing so (and defending the rest of the world at the same time).

177 Buck  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:59:17am

OT:

UN rights body praises Sri Lanka, condemns Tigers

The UN Human Rights Council praised on Wednesday Sri Lanka's victory over the Tamil Tigers and condemned the rebels for using civilians as human shields.

China, Cuba, Egypt and 26 others on the 47-member council voted in favor of a resolution that described the conflict as a "domestic" matter that did not warrant outside interference. The council also supported the Sri Lankan government's decision to provide aid groups only with "access as may be appropriate" to refugee camps.

178 simonml  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:59:38am

re: #28 Golem Akbar

/It's Bush's fault!

If only Bush hadn't started that Police Action against the peaceful Communists in Korea.

/They might say it

179 OldLineTexan  Wed, May 27, 2009 9:59:38am

re: #111 samsgran1948

I read someplace that China isn't so much afraid of the starving millions as they are of the well armed hundreds of thousands NORK soldiers turned bandits running around loose in China shooting up everything in sight.

The PLA takes a dim view of such behavior. And, what little trade the NORKS have to subsist on (indeed, subsidies as well) come from China.

180 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:14am

re: #162 Flyers1974

If I was the leader of some other country I'm not sure I'd want to test that theory.

Because you're a rational person. Guys like Kim & Achmadinejad aren't.

181 Golem Akbar  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:15am

re: #156 yma o hyd

Just wondering what Japan is doing and will be doing.

They were not happy with the UN (and FCBBHO) at the NK missile test in April this year.

In 1950/53 they were still just recovering from the devastations of WWII - this time round they aren't.
Weren't there some indications that the militarists are gaining ground?


I heard on the radio someone saying that the Japanese are about to go nuclear. Stay tuned. [yes, it is against their constitution, but...]

182 Ben Hur  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:16am

SAM KINISON IN BACK TO SCHOOL

183 Dave the.....  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:23am

164 looker

If you want to see Obama's acknowledgment that Bush was right, just look at his policies.

How come no one writes paranoid letters-to-the-editor complaining about warrantless domestic spying anymore? We all know the policies haven't changed.

184 realwest  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:33am

re: #145 Cato the Elder
Hey Cato! You've got mail!

185 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:36am

re: #174 Dianna

Unknown. There is some suspicion he's had a stroke, and that he might be dying.

But proving it? That's harder.

From what I've read about him and his addiction to posn, I'll bet thats not the 1st stroke he's had !

ummm,... wait a minute ,,, that doesn't look right !

///

186 simonml  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:57am

re: #173 realwest

Sorry for the late response, but just got a break from doing chores!
I don't trust Obama's economic and domestic policies or thoughts.
But as I suggested on the DT, he is OUR President and IF it ever escalates to a shooting war, I sure as heck wish him the very best of luck and advisors for OUR sake.

Of course we'd wish him luck, but considering he has less military experience than Bush (and that's saying a lot) I am VERY concerned.

187 ConservatismNow!  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:00:57am

re: #172 oldschool

I'm not worried. I hear Chuck Norris, Jack Bauer, and Indiana Jones are on a quest to find the Aqua Vitae so they can revive Chesty Puller. With their powers combined...

188 Desert Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:01:03am

re: #175 Flyers1974

Which president has ever been big on admitting when he is wrong in the history of the country?

I know a few that have no problem blaming the USA for the world's ills and apologizing for everything under the sun.

189 lawhawk  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:01:07am

re: #163 Desert Dog

I would expect the Norks Air Force and Navy to be wiped out in the first few moments of any large scale action. Their army is large, but the South and the US forces would wipe them out in time as well. It's their entrenched artillery and missile capability that presents problems for us. Even if they are poorly manned and trained, they could still inflict a heavy, heavy toll on the South (and maybe even Japan). I hope that never happens.

All one has to do is look at a map of the Korean Peninsula and see that Seoul is darned close to the DMZ. It would be threatened by artillery and missile barrages. That's the threat the North holds - that if war comes, they'll go after the civilian populations in Seoul.

190 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:01:13am

re: #185 sattv4u2

From what I've read about him and his addiction to posn PORN, I'll bet thats not the 1st stroke he's had !

ummm,... wait a minute ,,, that doesn't look right !

///

PIMF

191 unreconstructed rebel  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:01:17am

re: #161 Cato the Elder

I may well be wrong, but I don't think the dynasty will survive the moment of flux.

Makes one wonder what hold KJI has on the military? Sooner or later, men at arms tire of a nut case. Bad for the health.

192 VioletTiger  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:01:40am

re: #147 opnion

Imo, these tests are the equivalent of a power point sales presentation.


I agree. It's the fatest way to get what he wants with the least amount of trouble.

193 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:02:35am

Kim Jong Il 'names favourite son Jong Un as successor' in North Korea

The North Korean Successor has been named. The generals will support him because they know only the Kim dynasty will save the regime from collapse.

194 turn  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:02:40am

re: #125 opnion

That was the story, but at the Chosin Reservoir U.S troops ran right into Chinese regulars.

My FIL was there, down to the least amount of explosive they could use to lob mortar shells at them. Epic battle.

195 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:02:43am

re: #174 Dianna

Unknown. There is some suspicion he's had a stroke, and that he might be dying.

But proving it? That's harder.

Reminds me of the last days of Stalin, where his clsoest colleagues literally propped him up, tried to prolong his life by any means and kept the country and the rest of the world in the dark about his death until they had made up their minds how his power was going to be distributed ...

196 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:02:49am

re: #191 unreconstructed rebel

Makes one wonder what hold KJI has on the military? Sooner or later, men at arms tire of a nut case. Bad for the health.

Indeed.

197 ConservatismNow!  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:02:54am

re: #191 unreconstructed rebel

Makes one wonder what hold KJI has on the military? Sooner or later, men at arms tire of a nut case. Bad for the health.

I'd imagine it's like being one of Hitler's generals. You live in constant fear of getting shot for dissent.

198 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:03:00am

re: #154 opnion

I would not cease other activities while waiting. Obama is not big on admitting that he is wrong.

Well there is a difference between admitting that you are wrong and that someone else is right.

It wouldn't kill (or even politically hurt) Obama to concede that not EVERYTHING done by his predecessor was wrong.

On this particular issue, I have no opinion on Obama's performance yet. Let's give his administration a chance.

199 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:03:18am

re: #175 Flyers1974

Which president has ever been big on admitting when he is wrong in the history of the country?

Lincoln

200 Desert Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:03:34am

re: #191 unreconstructed rebel

Makes one wonder what hold KJI has on the military? Sooner or later, men at arms tire of a nut case. Bad for the health.

A gun to their family's heads would be my guest. "Betray me and I will kill everyone you know and love". Negative reinforcement fer sure

201 debutaunt  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:03:35am

re: #130 NJDhockeyfan

Can't we send another basketball for peace?

Give dribbling a chance!

202 NJDhockeyfan  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:03:38am

OT:

NYT: Obama in Netanyahu’s Web

NEW YORK — Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, won the first round over President Barack Obama. That’s not good for American interests or for Israel’s long-term security.

All the overblown reciprocal compliments could not hide evident tensions — over Iran and Israel-Palestine and how the two are linked. In the end, Obama blinked.

The president ceded to Israeli pressure for a timetable on any Iran talks, saying a “reassessment” should be possible by year’s end (Israel had pressed for an October deadline). Obama talked of the possibility of “much stronger international sanctions” against Iran, undermining his groundbreaking earlier overture that included a core truth: “This process will not be advanced by threats.”

Obama also allowed Netanyahu to compliment him for “leaving all options on the table” — the standard formula for a possible U.S. military strike against Iran — when he said nothing of the sort. The president did, however, use that tired phrase in a Newsweek interview this month — another mistake given the unthinkable consequences of a third U.S. war front in the Muslim world.

In return, what did Obama get? Not even acknowledgment from Netanyahu that Palestinian statehood, rather than some form of eternal limbo, is the notional goal of negotiations.

Score one for Netanyahu, who, in the words of one former American official who knows him well, “is the kind of guy who negotiates the time he will go to the bathroom.”

203 Ward Cleaver  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:03:56am

re: #193 Kenneth

Kim Jong Il 'names favourite son Jong Un as successor' in North Korea

The North Korean Successor has been named. The generals will support him because they know only the Kim dynasty will save the regime from collapse.

Does he have fabulous hair?

204 opnion  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:04:10am

re: #194 turn

My FIL was there, down to the least amount of explosive they could use to lob mortar shells at them. Epic battle.


.Brutal, absolutely brutal

205 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:04:11am

re: #191 unreconstructed rebel

Makes one wonder what hold KJI has on the military? Sooner or later, men at arms tire of a nut case. Bad for the health.

Fear and intimidation. Lets say his #1 general starts getting "pushy'. All Kim does is tell #2 he's about to get a promotion if and when #1 is eliminated

If #2 gets pushy he just tells #1 that #2 is after his job!

206 unreconstructed rebel  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:04:16am

re: #193 Kenneth

... only the Kim dynasty will save the regime from collapse.

Why? That mystifies me.

207 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:04:33am

re: #177 Buck

OT:

UN rights body praises Sri Lanka, condemns Tigers

The UN Human Rights Council praised on Wednesday Sri Lanka's victory over the Tamil Tigers and condemned the rebels for using civilians as human shields.

China, Cuba, Egypt and 26 others on the 47-member council voted in favor of a resolution that described the conflict as a "domestic" matter that did not warrant outside interference. The council also supported the Sri Lankan government's decision to provide aid groups only with "access as may be appropriate" to refugee camps.

And this will never happen when one puts 'Israel' for 'Sri Lanka', and 'Hamas' for 'Tamil Tigers' ...

208 debutaunt  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:04:35am

re: #203 Ward Cleaver

Does he have fabulous hair?

And a cool step-stool.

209 saberry0530  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:04:41am

re: #201 debutaunt

Give dribbling a chance!

A dunk for peace!

210 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:05:06am

re: #205 sattv4u2

Fear and intimidation. Lets say his #1 general starts getting "pushy'. All Kim does is tell #2 he's about to get a promotion if and when #1 is eliminated

If #2 gets pushy he just tells #1 that #2 is after his job!

Sounds like those Admirals Darth Vader kept choking in Empire Strikes Back.

211 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:05:26am

re: #210 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

Sounds like those Admirals Darth Vader kept choking in Empire Strikes Back.

bingo

212 Tommy  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:05:27am

#182 Ben Hur
OH MAN great clip, brought back memories! God Rest Sam Kinison

213 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:05:40am

re: #210 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

re: #211 sattv4u2

bingo

NEXT!

214 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:05:41am

re: #181 Golem Akbar

I heard on the radio someone saying that the Japanese are about to go nuclear. Stay tuned. [yes, it is against their constitution, but...]

Supposedly, the Japanese already have all the technology and material necessary to create nuclear weapons. All that they require is the appropriate legal cover to assemble them.

In other words, the only thing that stands between Japan and a nuclear arsenal is a vote of the Japanese parliament and a relatively short amount of assembly time.

The Japanese, understandably, have a big fear of nukes, but I think if push came to shove (ie they felt threatened by the Koreans), they'd have their nukes ready pretty fast.

215 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:06:02am

re: #181 Golem Akbar

I heard on the radio someone saying that the Japanese are about to go nuclear. Stay tuned. [yes, it is against their constitution, but...]

Blydi 'eck - thats all we need!
(If they actually do it, that is ...)

216 Lincolntf  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:06:22am

re: #193 Kenneth

I suppose that "the Generals" are our best hope of rational behavior from NoKo, but what kind of person do you think gets promoted to a military leadership position in a nation run by a despotic psychopath who watches millions of his citizens starve to death? I'm guessing the ones who don't say "boo" or actually share the manias of the Leader.

217 ConservatismNow!  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:06:22am

re: #203 Ward Cleaver

Does he have fabulous hair?

Soon, very soon little Jong Un will don his ancestral Grey Jump Suit and Elvis sunglasses. And the North Korean people will rejoice or be shot.

218 MandyManners  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:06:25am

re: #193 Kenneth

Kim Jong Il 'names favourite son Jong Un as successor' in North Korea

The North Korean Successor has been named. The generals will support him because they know only the Kim dynasty will save the regime from collapse.

Why can't malignant narcissists shoot blanks?

219 capitalist piglet  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:06:26am

re: #200 Desert Dog

A gun to their family's heads would be my guest. "Betray me and I will kill everyone you know and love". Negative reinforcement fer sure

Possibly - but they are fed such a diet of propaganda, even those who are living in extreme poverty and hardship believe they are far superior to us, and hate us. They aren't allowed to know a life outside of North Korea.

220 Kosh's Shadow  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:07:24am

Time to cheer up with some Tom Lehrer

221 sattv4u2  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:07:42am

re: #219 capitalist piglet

Possibly - but they are fed such a diet of propaganda, even those who are living in extreme poverty and hardship believe they are far superior to us, and hate us. They aren't allowed to know a life WORLD outside of North Korea.

222 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:07:59am

re: #172 oldschool

Look at the positives. We have the wife of the man who allowed the North to get a nuke as Secretary Of State. Uhh wait. We have a President who is known for his patriotism and support of the military. No that's not it. The party in power is known for it's unwavering defense of this country and what it stands for. Ahhh, Never mind start worrying,,,

Your points are domestic political rhetoric aren't they? I doubt other countries took Daily Kos comments as a true measure of Bush. Likewise, American conservative opinion of Obama isn't necessarily shared by the rest of the world.

223 realwest  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:08:29am

re: #116 sattv4u2 Hey, good afternoon. Someone posted a link in the DT (may even have been you!) which led to an article in an Asian newspaper that said the Chinese were a whole lot less than enthusiastic about NORK's bomb test. Seems that they gave China No Warning at all (although they apparently gave the US 25 minutes notice!) and set it off awfully close to China - indeed so close that the Chinese feared an earthquake had occured and evacuated schools and factories.
The Chinese did NOT appreciate North Korea's actions.

224 schnapp  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:08:30am

re: #206 unreconstructed rebel

Why? That mystifies me.

North Korea is the safest place in the world from Swine Flu :p

225 VegasRick  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:08:36am

re: #123 Cato the Elder

Not the "Obama is weak and a secret commie, we're all gonna die" ganja making the rounds here this morning.

You are a fool.

226 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:08:40am

re: #195 yma o hyd

Reminds me of the last days of Stalin, where his clsoest colleagues literally propped him up, tried to prolong his life by any means and kept the country and the rest of the world in the dark about his death until they had made up their minds how his power was going to be distributed ...

Notably, when he collapsed, everyone was so scared they didn't do anything for hours.

The politburo were deeply relieved by Stalin's death. He was about to purge them, and even Molotov and Kalinin were not likely to survive. Beria was for the long drop, and knew it; I think he was surprised he lasted as long after Stalin's death as he did.

227 chicagodudewhotrades  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:10:15am

I know it is only a game, but I have 'Mercenaries' on my PS2. The game's plot involves NK after the country collapses. N. Korea gets divided up into regions controlled by the Chinese, S. Koreans, and a UN type force. I wonder if getting the regional players involved and dividing up a failed North into different regions controlled by the regional players would work in real life?

228 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:10:31am

re: #176 lawhawk

Some may think it's weakness. Others may misinterpret restraint as weakness (which has repeatedly been the case in the Middle East - where for example Palestinians think Israel is ripe for attack because Israel doesn't respond after every terror attack, or that the US was the weak horse because it absorbed terror attack after attack until 9/11, etc.)

Right now, all these regimes are testing the limits of what the US can or can't do - and the Administration is scurrying about trying to deal with these issues when it's still on a very steep learning curve. Those regimes have the benefit of plotting for the long term, while this Administration is busy running a perpetual campaign. It's a difference in worldview and politics that is dangerous for US foreign policy as the nation needs a President to defend US national interests rather than apologizing for our doing so (and defending the rest of the world at the same time).

I'm not sure that Obama's domestic activities are at the expense of its handling of foreign policy.

229 yma o hyd  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:10:36am

re: #226 Dianna

Notably, when he collapsed, everyone was so scared they didn't do anything for hours.

The politburo were deeply relieved by Stalin's death. He was about to purge them, and even Molotov and Kalinin were not likely to survive. Beria was for the long drop, and knew it; I think he was surprised he lasted as long after Stalin's death as he did.

Simon Sebag-Montefiore ahs written a pretty amazing book about all of that.
I think its called 'The Court of the Red Tsar'.

230 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:10:53am

re: #191 unreconstructed rebel

Makes one wonder what hold KJI has on the military? Sooner or later, men at arms tire of a nut case. Bad for the health.

To be more specific: You could see Great Leader as Augustus (I know, that sullies the memory of Augustus, but bear with me), Dear Leader as Tiberius (perverted, arrogant, withdrawn, but still in power thanks to the lessons he learned from Dad), and Boy Leader as the young Caligula. With Caligula the God the Roman army finally had enough. Killed Little Boot and put Claudius on the throne, who for all his faults was a stable leader. I'm betting we'll see a junta or a strongman with an instinct for survival and a clear sense that present developments are a dead end.

And then we'll see some changes, and probably some big surprises too.

Did the "great strategists" of the time foresee the fall of the Berlin Wall? Kissinger? Zbig?

Wait and see.

231 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:11:02am

re: #200 Desert Dog

A gun to their family's heads would be my guest. "Betray me and I will kill everyone you know and love". Negative reinforcement fer sure

Tukachevsky (1937) didn't do a damn thing, even knowing he was being taken away to die, and knowing it was a death sentence for his wife and children. And he could have fought.

It's odd, but people usually don't fight, even knowing they should.

232 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:11:33am

re: #206 unreconstructed rebel

The the fear & control whihc are the foundation of the regime rest on the cult of personality. The Kim's have never let their generals become famous. They run the place, but their power is dependent upon Kim's pleasure. The generals will be happy to carry on with a 24 year old puppet ruler in Kim Jon Un.

233 turn  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:12:05am

re: #204 opnion

.Brutal, absolutely brutal

If you didn't get killed you nearly froze to death. Yes brutal.

234 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:12:21am

re: #225 VegasRick

You are a fool.

And your talent for argument stuns me into awed silence!

Not.

235 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:12:23am
236 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:12:39am
237 Dianna  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:12:54am

I need coffee if I'm going to jump into the next thread.

Bask in my absence, lizards!

238 Cato the Elder  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:13:22am

re: #184 realwest

Hey Cato! You've got mail!

Saw it, friend. I'm composing a reply. Not to worry about a thing - I totally get it. Thanks!

239 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:13:33am

re: #202 NJDhockeyfan

from your link:

This must begin with Iran’s pride and insecurities — a medium-sized power facing the world’s superpower — and almost certainly envision as an endgame a “non-zero option” where Iran retains an intrusively monitored, limited pilot uranium enrichment program while jettisoning its unacceptable rhetoric and troublemaking to become part of a new regional security arrangement.

Netanyahu talks a lot about the “existential threat” from Iran. The United States faces a prosaic daily threat: Many more young American men and women will die in Iraq and Afghanistan over the next several years if no Iranian breakthrough is achieved.

Obama must remind Israel of that. He should also tell Bibi that the real existential threat to Israel is not Amalek but hubris: An attack on Iran that would put the Jewish state at war with Persians as well as Arabs, undermine its core U.S. alliance, and set Tehran on a full-throttle course to a nuclear bomb with the support of some 1.2 billion Muslims.

Each of those points is contradicted by facts. The idiot who wrote that op-ed is living in a fantasy world.

240 Sabnen  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:13:35am

re: #193 Kenneth

Kim Jong Il 'names favourite son Jong Un as successor' in North Korea

The North Korean Successor has been named. The generals will support him because they know only the Kim dynasty will save the regime from collapse.

Good, timely link! In the 'Comments' section, below the article is the following . . .

This is quite interesting to say the least. I actually went to school with Kim Jong-Un back in Bern, Switzerland. At the time I didn't realize who he was, but now I look back and think he used to be a really quite and nice kid. I really hope he isn't like his father. Heather, Hampton, USA

Heather, Hampton, USA

241 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:13:43am

re: #180 BeerDrinking_VictoryMonkey

Because you're a rational person. Guys like Kim & Achmadinejad aren't.

I agree with Kim not being rational. Or else his antics are a hell of an act. As for Iran, I thought I read that foreign policy powers are not held by Amadinejad.

242 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:16:27am

re: #188 Desert Dog

I know a few that have no problem blaming the USA for the world's ills and apologizing for everything under the sun.

My post was in response to someone saying Obama wasn't big on apologizing for his own actions. My response was what president was big on this. Someone downthread said Lincoln, which I was not aware of.

243 Tatterdemalian  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:16:47am

If we had taken action when the DPRK was trying to build WMDs, we actually could have done some good. Now all the hawks can do is say "I told you so" as many times as it takes for it to finally penetrate the rock-hard heads of the doves.

That, and prepare for the much more devastating war our "peace in our time" diplomacy has wrought.

244 Guanxi88  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:19:00am

re: #169 Desert Dog

Blond haired, blue-eyed, vodka drinking Chinese pilots?

Gomers, they were called.

245 Sparmageddon  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:21:09am

re: #94 Flyers1974

But Obama has only been President since January. Which mess did the Democrats create?

I think the mess that the Dem's are/have made is showing a very dangerous level of obsequiousness.

246 [deleted]  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:23:36am
247 realwest  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:23:37am

re: #228 Flyers1974
Sorry, but Obama's domestic policies so far promise a considerable amount of dollar devaluation and significant inflation for the American Economy (recall that there has been talk of replacing the dollar as the internation currency with the Euro or the Yuan) and China holds more than half of all US Treasury Bonds; good for us to have to repay them at a deflated value, bad for us if the Chinese want them paid NOW.
What happens to our economy has a LOT to do with our influence on the rest of the world. Especially if we reach the point where we spend significantly less on defense (thereby making those Europeans who love Obama so much having to actually build militaries capable of defending their nations on their own).

248 joncelli  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:23:50am

re: #81 Kenneth

Which makes me doubt the reliability of the conclusions given even more. I'm not saying that defeating NK would be easy, but I do think that the US and SK could defeat NK forces, after an application of ruthless violence.

249 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:25:39am

re: #247 realwest

Sorry, but Obama's domestic policies so far promise a considerable amount of dollar devaluation and significant inflation for the American Economy (recall that there has been talk of replacing the dollar as the internation currency with the Euro or the Yuan) and China holds more than half of all US Treasury Bonds; good for us to have to repay them at a deflated value, bad for us if the Chinese want them paid NOW.
What happens to our economy has a LOT to do with our influence on the rest of the world. Especially if we reach the point where we spend significantly less on defense (thereby making those Europeans who love Obama so much having to actually build militaries capable of defending their nations on their own).

My response was to another poster's assertion that because Obama was out campaigning, he wouldn't be able to focus on foreign policy.

250 NY Nana  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:25:54am

re: #193 Kenneth

OT:For you, from a friend in Ottawa: ;)

IDIOT SIGHTING

We had to have the garage door repaired.The Sears repairman told us that one of our problems was that we did not have a "large" enough motor on the opener. I thought for a minute, and said that we had the largest one Sears made at that time, a 1/2 horsepower.
He shook his head and said, "Lady, you need a 1/4 horsepower." I responded that 1/2 was larger than 1/4. He said, "NO, it's not." Four is larger than two.."We haven't used Sears repair since.

IDIOT SIGHTING

My daughter and I went through the McDonald's take-out window and I gave the clerk a $5 bill. Our total was $4.25, so I also handed her a quarter. She said, "you gave me too much money." I said, "Yes I know, but this way you can just give me a dollar bill back."She sighed and went to get the manager who asked me to repeat my request. I did so, and he handed me back the quarter, and said "We're sorry but they could not do that kind of thing."The clerk then proceeded to give me back $1 and 75 cents in change.Do not confuse the clerks at McD's in Petawawa, ON

IDIOT SIGHTING:

I live in a semi rural area. We recently had a new neighbour call the local township administrative office to request the removal of the DEER CROSSING sign on our road. The reason: "Too many deer are being hit by cars out here!I don't think this is a good place for them to be crossing anymore."From Kingston , ON

IDIOT SIGHTING IN FOOD SERVICE:

My daughter went to a local Taco Bell and ordered a taco. She asked the person behind the counter for "minimal lettuce." He said he was sorry, but they only had iceberg lettuce.
From the City of Pembroke

IDIOT SIGHTING:

I was at the airport, checking in at the gate when an airport employee asked, "Has anyone put anything in your baggage without your knowledge?"
To which I replied, "If it was without my knowledge, how would I know?"
He smiled knowingly and nodded, "That's why we ask."
Happened at Uplands in Ottawa

IDIOT SIGHTING:

The stoplight on the corner buzzes when it's safe to cross the street.
I was crossing with an intellectually challenged coworker of mine.
She asked if I knew what the buzzer was for. I explained that it signals blind people when the light is red.
Appalled, she responded, "What on earth are blind people doing driving?!"
She was a probation officer in Gatineau , QC

IDIOT SIGHTING:

This happened at a good-bye luncheon for an old and dear coworker who was leaving the company to do "downsizing." Our manager commented cheerfully, "This is fun. We should do this more often." Not another word was spoken. We all just looked at each other with that deer-in-the-headlights stare.This was a lunch at Suncor, Fort McMurray , Alberta

IDIOT SIGHTING:

I work with an individual who plugged her power strip back into itself and for the sake of her life, couldn't understand why her system would not turn on. A clerk at the Campbell 's Bay Court House, no less.

IDIOT SIGHTING:

When my husband and I arrived at an automobile dealership to pick up our car, we were told the keys had been locked in it. We went to the service department and found a mechanic working feverishly to unlock the drivers side door. As I watched from the passenger side, I instinctively tried the door handle and discovered that it was unlocked. "Hey," I announced to the technician, "its open!" His reply, "I know. I already got that side."
This was at the Ford dealership in Renfrew, ON

STAY ALERT!

They walk among us... and the scary part is that they VOTE and they REPRODUCE !

251 realwest  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:27:45am

re: #249 Flyers1974
Ah sorry about that! Hard to try to read a thread this long and this complex.
My apologies.

252 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:31:11am

re: #246 Iron Fist

Many in the rest of the world would like to see Obama fail, just as they would have liked to see Bush fail. They want to see America fail. Obama believed (or said he believed) that if he was elected the rest of the world would forget its reflexive anti-Americanism and love us again for the first time. That is kind of like a battered wife going back to the husband she "loves" because this time he'll really change.

Ain't happening. not ever. If we wind up pulling Europe's collective ass out of the Islamic hole that they are falling into, they'll still hate us. That's one good reason not to help them, IMHO.

I can't say for sure what Obama meant, but I don't think he meant that the entire world would no longer be anti-american. That wouldn't be very believable. I'm guessing he was referring to our overall perception. Perception matters - take Europe for instance. If say, the people of Germany are more pro-US which is certainly a reasonable possibility, Germany's politicians would have more cover to cooperate with the US. This is a guess on my part. I can't say for sure his statements weren't meant for US domestic consumption.

253 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:31:57am

re: #251 realwest

No problem, I've done the same...

254 Sparmageddon  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:32:41am

re: #131 Flyers1974

Because Conservatives believe Obama is weak, it doesn't necessarily follow that the rest of the world believes that.

I'm not a conservative and I believe the One's foreign policy is weak. What actions are construed as weak if not capitulation and apology to everyone for everything?

255 Joan Not of Arc  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:34:58am

The two Koreas, in my opinion, are pawns for China. Russia is more than happy to tag along in this. Any conflict in the Korean peninsula would be between the US and China. China and Russia should somehow be tied up while the US or South Korea directly engages North Korea. China and Russia's involvement in keeping North Korea in the state it's in should be scrutinised, even penalised. This is short of war.
Just my thoughts.

256 Flyers1974  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:36:27am

re: #254 Sparmageddon

I'm not a conservative and I believe the One's foreign policy is weak. What actions are construed as weak if not capitulation and apology to everyone for everything?

I don't know if its right to conclude that N. Korea for example, would construe Obama's apologies in other contexts as weakness towards N. Korea. Isn't it possible it would be interpreted as a US attempt to win allies or at least a more US friendly population in our current allies?

257 Sparmageddon  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:38:30am

I'm not so much worried about China, they have they're own plans for taking over the U.S.! You know when you order Chinese food they come in those little origami containers that are bottomless! You order a small container of rice and it just keeps coming out of that dam box. They are trying to make us all fat so we will be easier to fight. Nobody else uses those origami containers for take-out food!
///

258 Joel  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:38:47am

I thought that once bush was gone the world was going to just love America.

259 Sparmageddon  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:42:27am

re: #152 Lincolntf

Kinda reminds me of all the people who've spent a decade or two telling me that "student uprisings" and "moderate clerics" will regain control of the country "next year".
Next year takes forever to get here.

"and someday never comes" one of my favorite CCR songs.

260 ConservatismNow!  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:43:36am

re: #257 Sparmageddon

It's not just China! It's Mexico too! China and Mexico are in an alliance against the U.S. I seen it. They got Mexicans working in the Chinese restaurants and Chinese working in the Mexican restaurants. Crazy!

261 markx  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:44:15am

re: #77 Rexatosis

Nothing can be done militarily regarding North Korea without China, a lesson learned during the Korean War. The least bad solution it seems to me would be for the Chinese Red Army to overthrow the North Korean government. However China is not prepared to handle the resulting humanitarian chaos. Given the agricultural strength of the United States we may (should/must) be able to provide much of the food relief a Chinese military operation into North Korea would need. A side benefit of such a Chinese military commitment into North Korea would be the resulting drain on the Chinese Military as it dealt with running North Korea, such actions would lessen or forestall potential conflict over Taiwan.

As bad is this is, your's is the best case scenario ...

Allow the Chinese to take out the wee Kim and annex North Korea as reward.
NK is in a shambles as is, just bringing the country up to Chinese living standard would be a task. But a Chinese take over would give the NK people a better standard of living than they currently have.

North Korea would be a drain on China for decades.

But ... the nukes would be taken out...


/I can't believe I just accepted this as an viable option.

262 Sparmageddon  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:50:36am

re: #186 simonml

Of course we'd wish him luck, but considering he has more less military experience community activism than Bush (and that's saying a lot) I am VERY concerned.

FIFY

263 babes  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:51:51am

Ok - here is something for someone to verify...

A few years ago, if I remember correctly, there was a very big concern that the North would blow up a very big dam that is north of Seoul and flood Seoul ...

any truth to this?

264 BohicaTwentyTwo  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:55:33am

Noah Shachtman is an idiot. Foal Eagle is an annual exercise of mock attack FROM North Korea, not on North Korea.

265 Son of the Black Dog  Wed, May 27, 2009 10:56:39am

re: #226 Dianna

Notably, when he collapsed, everyone was so scared they didn't do anything for hours.

The politburo were deeply relieved by Stalin's death. He was about to purge them, and even Molotov and Kalinin were not likely to survive. Beria was for the long drop, and knew it; I think he was surprised he lasted as long after Stalin's death as he did.

There's an apocryphal story about Stalin's death. Supposedly it occurred during a meeting at which Beria was present. He is said to have stood up and shouted something like, "The tyrant is dead". At that moment Stalin's body twitched and Beria fainted.

266 enoughalready  Wed, May 27, 2009 11:00:55am

re: #12 grahamski

The little tyrant is testing the ZERO, and the ZERO is failing miserably.

Are you serious?

I don't agree with many of Obama's policies but this is just ridiculous. What did you expect him to do within 48 hours? Nuke NK? If you did then there's not really much more I can say. If not then I wonder if you are not knee jerk complaining.

267 enoughalready  Wed, May 27, 2009 11:10:07am

re: #241 Flyers1974

I agree with Kim not being rational. Or else his antics are a hell of an act. As for Iran, I thought I read that foreign policy powers are not held by Amadinejad.

Correct. Ahmadinejad, for all his bluster, is a nobody. Above him you find not only the Supreme Leader but also the Council of Guardians. Now. This certainly makes Iran a rather nasty form of theocracy. But as far as I can tell Ali Khameini is not a complete lunatic. He is a rather adept politician (his maneuvering to get rid of Rafsanjani in the 2005 elections for example) and doesn't strike me as particularily suicidal. He's a dictator, certainly, but - as far as I can tell, any examples that would suggest otherwise are more than welcome - he doesn't (yet) seem to be suffering from the full blown paranoia and megalomania of someone like The Great Leader.

268 Kenneth  Wed, May 27, 2009 11:11:40am

re: #250 NY Nana

ROFLMAO! Thanks for posting that. I've experienced this one myself:

I was at the airport, checking in at the gate when an airport employee asked, "Has anyone put anything in your baggage without your knowledge?" To which I replied, "If it was without my knowledge, how would I know?" He smiled knowingly and nodded, "That's why we ask."

And then there was the time I was on the phone to Florida ordering a product and the sales clerk couldn't figure out if she should charge me "domestic" or "overseas" shipping cost. I told her Canada was not overseas, it was overland, so go with domestic.

269 enoughalready  Wed, May 27, 2009 11:15:40am

re: #268 Kenneth

And then there was the time I was on the phone to Florida ordering a product and the sales clerk couldn't figure out if she should charge me "domestic" or "overseas" shipping cost. I told her Canada was not overseas, it was overland, so go with domestic.


Hahahahahahahaha. "My, what is that burning sensation."

270 JHW  Wed, May 27, 2009 11:22:50am

A very interesting analysis from Australia, excerpts.

NORTH Korea's nuclear test and missile launchings offer sad and perhaps startling lessons. Lesson No.1: So far, the Barack Obama charm and kindness offensive has had no positive results in any conflict anywhere in the world.

Obama may believe he can change the world with a smile, a willingness to consult, extravagant official humility and a dose of undeniable charm. He is indeed not George W. Bush. Guess what? It makes not one tiny jot of difference to North Korea's Kim Jong-il or, indeed, to any of the world's dictators, terrorists, nuclear rogues or other bad guys.

Soft power is not going to solve North Korea.

SNIP

Because the status quo suits China. There is no evidence Beijing is worried by the humanitarian plight of North Korea's half-starved population. When a big international conference on North Korean human rights was held in Melbourne recently, US, Japanese and South Korean diplomats attended. No Chinese diplomat was there.

If South and North Korea reunited on the model of East and West Germany the whole peninsula would become a democracy. And despite the bizarre fashion a few years ago for analysts at the Australian National University to pronounce the US-South Korean military alliance on its deathbed, a reunited Korea would almost certainly remain an ally of the US. Although China doesn't like the trickle of refugees it gets from North Korea now, it would hate sharing a 1400km border with a bold, prosperous, rich ally of the US. The refugee flow would then be the other way.

Far better to have a Stalinist buffer state, so long as it does not become so erratic as to directly endanger Chinese security.

Stalinist dictatorships are best considered as national equivalents of the narcissistic personality in psychology. They are completely self-obsessed. North Korea's interlocutors keep trying to devise a system of incentives and disincentives. But the North Koreans make entirely different calculations. Their paradigm is utterly foreign. This is a classic weakness of realism as an analytical tool in foreign policy. Realism holds that states act on the basis of their interests rather than their ideologies. This is wrong throughout history but especially wrong of regimes such as Kim's. Kim will act in his own interests, but his evaluation of his interests may bear no resemblance to our evaluation


SNIP
"3 Lessons from Pyongyang"...The Australian

271 looking closely  Wed, May 27, 2009 11:29:17am

re: #250 NY NanaFunny stories.

As I like to say, consider how stupid the average person is. . .now consider that fully half of them are EVEN STUPIDER!

Anyway, the question they're SUPPOSED to be asking you is, "Is it possible that someone has put something in your baggage without your knowledge"?

That's a very nuanced way of asking: Did someone else pack your bags for you, or have your bags been out of your sight for any length of time?

The latter is what they ACTUALLY ask you in Israel, for example, a place that actually takes security seriously (as opposed to the "security theater" we endure in the USA).

272 Alberta Oil Peon  Wed, May 27, 2009 12:05:23pm

re: #163 Desert Dog

I would expect the Norks Air Force and Navy to be wiped out in the first few moments of any large scale action. Their army is large, but the South and the US forces would wipe them out in time as well. It's their entrenched artillery and missile capability that presents problems for us. Even if they are poorly manned and trained, they could still inflict a heavy, heavy toll on the South (and maybe even Japan). I hope that never happens.

Many people seem to be very concerned about all the rockets and artillery tubes that the Norks supposedly have ranged on Seoul. Isn't that exactly what the Norks want us to believe? Now, presumably we have some independent verification of the number of emplaced weapons and their locations, but do we have any way of knowing what fraction of them are actually functional, and what fraction are just dummies?

There now exist very effective countermeasures to fixed artillery. There are radars that can track the trajectory of an incoming shell, and launch a precision-guided missile to take out the tube. South Korea would be foolish not to have such systems in place.

There's no question that a surprise attack by the Norks could cause heavy damage in South Korea, but complete devastation? I doubt it. Historically, artillery barrages have taken many hours, or even many days to achieve their objective of softening up the target area. Once the Norks open fire, they simply won't have that much time. And I'm not bloviating about nuking the Norks to a glass desert, either. Simply, the conventional response to any artillery/missile assault that they start will rapidly cripple their capability to sustain it.

273 grahamski  Wed, May 27, 2009 12:09:11pm

re: #123 Cato the Elder

Not the "Obama is weak and a secret commie, we're all gonna die" ganja making the rounds here this morning.

Nobody said any such thing, stop putting words into peoples mouths.

274 AZDave  Wed, May 27, 2009 12:38:44pm

re: #16 Mad Al-Jaffee

He'll take care of the situation with a strongly worded letter.

Nope! That's the UN. Obama will hide behind his desk and blame Bush.

275 AZDave  Wed, May 27, 2009 12:47:38pm

re: #67 kansas

North Korea's military says it considers South Korea's participation in a U.S.-led program to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction tantamount to a declaration of war against the North.

So War has been declared. Is this the test of Obama's spine of steel wool?

Now, that's more like it.

276 bbcrackmonkey  Wed, May 27, 2009 1:25:40pm

North Korea: the world's largest prison.

277 Perplexed  Wed, May 27, 2009 7:56:32pm

re: #263 babes

Ok - here is something for someone to verify...

A few years ago, if I remember correctly, there was a very big concern that the North would blow up a very big dam that is north of Seoul and flood Seoul ...

any truth to this?

Yes, S. Korea has many dams designed to at least slow down the flow coming down from the north on the Han River.

This would be a very bloody mess and we would be abandoning US Army units on the DMZ since the ROKs would blast the canyon walls down on the roads leading north. Pretty scary thought, especially since we lack resources to rearm our military and ROK.

278 TJ  Thu, May 28, 2009 6:02:24am

This isn't news. We run a couple major such joint operations with the ROK every year, and they all focus on war with the North because, well, the war has never ended.


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 Frank says:

I figure the odds are fifty-fifty I just might have some thing to say.