Fed Survey: The Economy is Mending
US News • Views: 3,219
A new Federal Reserve survey just released says that 11 out of 12 economic regions are either “stabilizing” or “improving” — indicating that the recession is over.
275 comments
1 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:18:43am |
So why am I always in the "Region" that sucks??
| 2 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:20:28am |
I sure hope they're right... because it looks like things have a long way to catch up before we "really" recover...
Unless "jobless" recovery is considered to be an acceptable goal this time around, that is. ;)
Regards,
Brian
| 3 |
Last Mohican Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:20:32am |
This AP story appears to refer to the Fed's "Beige Book" survey. Here is the actual report, in .pdf format.
The report is issued every two months. You can find past reports here.
| 4 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:20:35am |
Thank goodness, because I was getting very, very worried.
| 6 |
Yashmak Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:20:48am |
Cool! Now I can go out and buy a bunch of additional houses on ARMs and depend upon them to appreciate rapidly in value, and count on offloading them at a profit before the higher rate kicks in! /sarc
| 7 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:22:28am |
re: #3 Last Mohican
This AP story appears to refer to the Fed's "Beige Book" survey. Here is the actual report, in .pdf format.
The report is issued every two months. You can find past reports here.
How many pages? I'm composing an annual report, so I've got exactly my snack time to read in.
| 9 |
mrbaracuda Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:22:49am |
USA!
USA!
USA!
LoL, evening lizard people from the far west across the pond!
| 11 |
cronus Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:23:44am |
This forecast is brought to you by the economists who failed to see a nearly cataclysmic financial crisis.
/You'll excuse me if I don't rush right out and buy a new Lexis
| 12 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:24:33am |
re: #2 snapped shot
I sure hope they're right... because it looks like things have a long way to catch up before we "really" recover...
Unless "jobless" recovery is considered to be an acceptable goal this time around, that is. ;)
Regards,
Brian
Hey Brian. What's up with that link to "Lionheart" at your website?
Do you know that the guy is a flat-out bigot connected to the neo-Nazi British National Party? And that he called for me to be "executed like a Nazi collaborator?"
Why are you linking to someone like that?
| 13 |
Last Mohican Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:24:48am |
re: #7 Dianna
How many pages? I'm composing an annual report, so I've got exactly my snack time to read in.
48 pages. There's a summary at the beginning, but even it is kind of long.
I don't have time to read the whole thing right now either. I hope everything really is getting better, but I'm suspicious that this might be another one of those "hooray, things are getting worse at a slower rate than before" reports.
| 14 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:25:31am |
re: #10 greygandalf
It's about as comforting as a sky diver loosing his primary ...
Then remembers his axillary has been looked at in 10 years!
| 15 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:25:40am |
I certainly hope the tide is turning. Seems everyone is hurting.
| 16 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:25:47am |
AZ is still stagnant...no activity in any major business sector. Housing is a disaster, manufacturing is still down, tourism is down. Unemployment is still up. You cannot find a job in Phoenix right now. The guys I laid off earlier this year tell me that there are 100's of people showing up for every job opening. I wish it was getting better, but it's not here...not yet.
| 17 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:26:49am |
re: #16 Desert Dog
I'll bet alcohol consumption is UP!!
| 18 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:27:27am |
re: #12 Charles
Hey Brian. What's up with that link to "Lionheart" at your website?
Do you know that the guy is connected to the neo-Nazi British National Party? And that he called for me to be "executed like a Nazi collaborator?"
Why are you linking to someone like that?
The guy certainly has a flair for dramatic rhetoric, doesn't he? ;)
(Man, I guess my recent purge of my blogroll wasn't comprehensive enough! Where's my Federal grant for Blogroll Editing when I need it?? :) )
Regards,
Brian
| 19 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:28:01am |
| 20 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:28:28am |
re: #16 Desert Dog
DD...I wasn't making light of the situation...Just sayin Bro!!
| 22 |
MandyManners Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:29:17am |
| 23 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:29:19am |
re: #15 Sharmuta
I certainly hope the tide is turning. Seems everyone is hurting.
Even if you're doing OK, you know far too many people who aren't.
| 24 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:30:28am |
re: #20 reloadingisnotahobby
DD...I wasn't making light of the situation...Just sayin Bro!!
None taken...but, you are probably right
| 25 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:30:45am |
| 26 |
mrbaracuda Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:30:57am |
re: #12 Charles
[...]the guy is connected to the neo-Nazi British National Party? And that he called for me to be "executed like a Nazi collaborator?"
Wait, what? I mean, I was called a fascist by someone calling me and my other commentators Jews and the product of Jewish whores, because everyone knows Jewish women are all whore, well at least in his parallel universe before he went into a rant about how we should all be gassed and sterilized.. yeah.
What is happening in the world? LoL.
| 27 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:31:44am |
re: #18 snapped shot
You don't have to "purge" anything. I'm just pointing out a few things.
And uh ... Robert Spencer? Are you aware that he's been launching an almost unending series of vile personal attacks against me, for exposing his connections to fascist groups? That's OK with you?
Again, don't "purge" anybody on my account. I'm just curious why you seem to think all of that stuff is no big deal.
| 28 |
lawhawk Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:31:46am |
From the article:
The Federal Reserve's snapshot of economic conditions backs predictions by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and most other analysts that the economy has started to grow once again in the current quarter.In the new survey, all but one of the Fed's 12 regions indicated that economic activity was "stable," showed "signs of stabilization" or had "firmed." The one exception was the St. Louis region, which continued to report that the pace of decline in economic activity appeared to be "moderating."
Stable, showing signs of stabilization or firmed means things have gotten no worse. That's better than declining. It doesn't indicate growth, but that we may have bottomed out.
Even assuming that this is the end of the recession, unemployment figures will continue lagging, just as they have with other recessions, and jobs are what people feel most when considering economic climate. That situation wont turn around for at least another year, if not more.
So, how quickly will it be before Obama takes credit for the turnaround, which would have occurred without the stimulus?
The one big factor they cite is cash for clunkers spurring sales, but that only helps this quarter - what happens next quarter when everyone realizes the sales shifted, and didn't create new demand, leaving those automakers in the lurch with bloated inventories of new cars on the lots and people waiting on the sidelines to see if another cash for clunkers develops?
| 29 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:32:08am |
re: #21 Sharmuta
Will a turnaround help fend off inflation?
I don't know. It might lessen its impact, if my rather vague understanding - that increased investment might soak up some of the inflationary pressure - but I (personally) am wondering if my savings mean anything.
| 30 |
Jack Burton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:33:06am |
re: #21 Sharmuta
Will a turnaround help fend off inflation?
The fed needs to increase interest rates and the banks need to keep sitting on the fed handouts they received to "loosen credit" money instead of loaning it out (or pay it back... as long as it's not just dumped out into the economy). If those 2 things don't happen, expect inflation that will make your eyes pop out.
| 32 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:33:48am |
re: #29 Dianna
Doh!!
Don't say (savings)!!
You never know "who's" here!
Shsssh!
/
| 33 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:33:59am |
re: #27 Charles
You don't have to "purge" anything. I'm just pointing out a few things.
And uh ... Robert Spencer? Are you aware that he's been launching an almost unending series of vile personal attacks against me, for exposing his connections to fascist groups? That's OK with you?
Again, don't "purge" anybody on my account. I'm just curious why you seem to think all of that stuff is no big deal.
Robert Spencer is still an extremely authoritative source on Islamic texts, as far as I am concerned. I'm aware of the dispute you two have been having, but would like to refrain from picking sides if at all possible, seeing how greatly I respect both of you. :)
Regards,
Brian
| 34 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:34:18am |
re: #32 reloadingisnotahobby
I'm insufficiently paranoid! Again!
| 35 |
Locker Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:35:06am |
Waiting for the numerous replies claiming the following:
1. We aren't really in recovery
2. Obama administration didn't do anything to aid the recovery, it happened in spite of yadda yadda
3. The stimulus didn't help and is/was a failure
4. Obama PROMISED!!! that unemployment wouldn't go over 10 percent and that was the ONLY reason the stimulus was passed. FAIL!
Perhaps I'll be wrong. That would be wonderful.
| 36 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:35:54am |
re: #33 snapped shot
Robert Spencer is still an extremely authoritative source on Islamic texts, as far as I am concerned. I'm aware of the dispute you two have been having, but would like to refrain from picking sides if at all possible, seeing how greatly I respect both of you. :)
Regards,
Brian
So the connections to fascist groups, the links to sites where people call for me to be murdered (and Lionheart isn't the only one), the disgusting personal attacks ("aging adolescent libelblogger" is one of the nicer things he's called me)... all of that's OK?
| 37 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:36:02am |
re: #34 Dianna
Here's a trick...
My dog is so dense he hasn't a CLUE he owns 35 acres of trees and rocks pee on!!!
Heheheh!
What a lame-o!
| 38 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:36:15am |
re: #30 ArchangelMichael
Thanks. I understand some economics, but I'm still not sure about a lot of the details. I try to understand, but it's just not my strong suit.
| 39 |
CyanSnowHawk Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:36:22am |
re: #2 snapped shot
I sure hope they're right... because it looks like things have a long way to catch up before we "really" recover...
Unless "jobless" recovery is considered to be an acceptable goal this time around, that is. ;)
Regards,
Brian
Just wait until they start spending all that stimulus money they've been sitting on. That'll be "recovery with bacon" and everything's better with bacon.
| 40 |
mrbaracuda Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:37:29am |
re: #36 Charles
Speaking of libelblogger, I am disappointed I haven't seen the name of the blog change yet! There was something about libelblogger den.. or cave.. or something.. :-D
| 41 |
Locker Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:37:56am |
re: #39 CyanSnowHawk
Just wait until they start spending all that stimulus money they've been sitting on. That'll be "recovery with bacon" and everything's better with bacon.
CSH for food president. Bacon ftw.
| 42 |
Killgore Trout Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:38:33am |
re: #5 acwgusa
Mending, yes. Growing? Not for years.
I think the estimates are that we'll see growth in the 4th quarter this year.
| 43 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:39:05am |
re: #39 CyanSnowHawk
Just wait until they start spending all that stimulus money they've been sitting on. That'll be "recovery with bacon" and everything's better with bacon.
Yes, but certain types of "pork" don't taste so good at all...
| 44 |
Land Shark Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:39:12am |
I certainly hope the recession is easing. I don't buy it since so many people keep losing their jobs and the unemployment rate just keeps rising. And I think once taxes start to go up to pay for all the spending we've seen from the Tarp bill (which was under GW's watch) to the still to come Health Care and Cap N' Trade bills, any recovery we see now will prove to be a mirage and the real depression will start.
But I want to be wrong. I already know too many people who've lost their jobs. I want to see the economy improve and people get back to work.
| 45 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:39:14am |
re: #36 Charles
So the connections to fascist groups, the links to sites where people call for me to be murdered (and Lionheart isn't the only one), the disgusting personal attacks ("aging adolescent libelblogger" is one of the nicer things he's called me)... all of that's OK?
I don't advocate that you be murdered, if that helps things any. And I certainly don't support anyone's comments towards the same.
That being said, I'm taking a Chamberlainian approach to these blogwar kinds of things (other than Paul, who has certainly crossed well over the line on more occasions than I can count). No offense towards you nor any of the other parties is intended!
Regards,
Brian
| 46 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:39:25am |
re: #42 Killgore Trout
I think the estimates are that we'll see growth in the 4th quarter this year.
From your keyboard to the economy.
| 47 |
pre-Boomer Marine brat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:39:29am |
(From that article) ... Dallas has "firmed".
I'm not sure how to take that.
Could it mean that diarrhea is over, even though things are still sh*t?
| 48 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:39:59am |
re: #42 Killgore Trout
We're in the fourth Quarter of THIS YEAR!???
Oh never mind! Ha Ha!
| 49 |
CyanSnowHawk Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:40:25am |
re: #41 Locker
CSH for food president. Bacon ftw.
This might be a symptom of watching too much Man v. Food.
| 50 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:40:43am |
re: #45 snapped shot
I'm taking a Chamberlainian approach
Historically- not the best approach. Just sayin'.
| 51 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:40:44am |
re: #48 reloadingisnotahobby
Record Christmas sales don't count!!
| 52 |
Locker Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:41:12am |
re: #49 CyanSnowHawk
This might be a symptom of watching too much Man v. Food.
I don't like that show but I try not to miss "The Best Thing I Ever Ate" and Anthony Bordain's No Reservations is by far my favorite food show. Porkalicious!
| 53 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:41:24am |
re: #45 snapped shot
I don't advocate that you be murdered, if that helps things any. And I certainly don't support anyone's comments towards the same.
That being said, I'm taking a Chamberlainian approach to these blogwar kinds of things (other than Paul, who has certainly crossed well over the line on more occasions than I can count). No offense towards you nor any of the other parties is intended!
Regards,
Brian
So you think you should be able to promote your site at LGF, even though you're linking to people who absolutely hate my guts and frequently attack me publicly?
And you really think this is just a "blogwar" that you can stay out of?
| 54 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:41:49am |
re: #50 Sharmuta
Historically- not the best approach. Just sayin'.
Heh, duly noted.
Hopefully wars of the blog kind aren't of the same scale as wars of the world variety.
:)
Regards,
Brian
| 55 |
_RememberTonyC Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:41:51am |
the economy was going to recover eventually. the government probably needed to get involved to a certain extent to jump start things in some areas, but my concern is that the dems and their cheerleaders in the MSM will spin the (eventual) recovery as being the result of the brilliant Obama economic stimulus plan as opposed to mostly being the result of the economy bottoming out and starting the long climb back to health.
just my two cents, which adjusted for inflation means just my "dime."
| 56 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:41:59am |
re: #26 mrbaracuda
Wait, what? I mean, I was called a fascist by someone calling me and my other commentators Jews and the product of Jewish whores, because everyone knows Jewish women are all whore, well at least in his parallel universe before he went into a rant about how we should all be gassed and sterilized.. yeah.
.
I think I know this guy too.
| 57 |
avanti Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:42:05am |
re: #48 reloadingisnotahobby
We're in the fourth Quarter of THIS YEAR!???
Oh never mind! Ha Ha!
Skipped fractions in school did you ?
| 58 |
cliffster Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:42:11am |
Isn't the Fed declaring that the economy is recovering a bit of fox declaring the henhouse safe?
| 59 |
mrbaracuda Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:42:31am |
re: #56 Joshua Cohen
Well, you are German then I guess! :-)
| 60 |
Locker Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:02am |
re: #53 Charles
So you think you should be able to promote your site at LGF, even though you're linking to people who absolutely hate my guts and frequently attack me publicly?
And you really think this is just a "blogwar" that you can stay out of?
Well folks are going to read what they read but I understand the linking thing. Perhaps if you just gave him a standard to which he should adhere it would all be fine. Perhaps that's what you are doing...
| 61 |
pre-Boomer Marine brat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:25am |
I'm no economics geek, but I think I wanna see what's happening to corporate capital spending.
| 62 |
Killgore Trout Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:30am |
re: #58 cliffster
Isn't the Fed declaring that the economy is recovering a bit of fox declaring the henhouse safe?
Not really.
| 63 |
mrbaracuda Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:33am |
| 64 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:35am |
re: #54 snapped shot
Heh, duly noted.
Hopefully wars of the blog kind aren't of the same scale as wars of the world variety.
:)
Regards,
Brian
This isn't something trivial, Brian, and I'm really not appreciating the attempt to paint it that way. Spencer is hooked up with some really bad people. That's not a joke to me.
| 65 |
Walter L. Newton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:43am |
re: #54 snapped shot
Heh, duly noted.
Hopefully wars of the blog kind aren't of the same scale as wars of the world variety.
:)
Regards,
Brian
But I wonder if having any sort of moral compass (which you seem to be lacking) is an the same scale as... well... a person who links to bigots and nationalists?
| 66 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:47am |
re: #57 avanti
Skipped fractions in school did you ?
The Federal Fiscal Year First Quarter starts Oct. 1.
So we ARE in the fourth quarter of THIS Fiscal Year, right now, unless I misread the calendar.
I am sure they mean 4Q NEXT fiscal year ...
| 67 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:52am |
re: #57 avanti
Skipped fractions in school did you ?
"Baseball is 90% mental -- the other half is physical." - Yogi Berra
He understood math the way it should be.
| 68 |
Jack Burton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:43:52am |
re: #38 Sharmuta
Thanks. I understand some economics, but I'm still not sure about a lot of the details. I try to understand, but it's just not my strong suit.
As long as all this phony money "printed" to bail out the banks does not get turned into actual real money by being loaned out to consumers en masse, we will dodge the super high inflation bullet. Right now it's just numbers in a computer somewhere making bankers feel better about themselves.
If a trillion or two get paid back to the federal government to cover all the TARP and TARP-like bills that were passed, we will be ok. I don't necessarily trust Bernake and Geithner to do the right thing vs the popular thing though. Also there has not been adequate reform to make sure this does not happen again. Just feel-good, do-nothing crap.
| 69 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:44:05am |
re: #54 snapped shot
That's just it, Brian. History repeats itself. There is an alarming rise of fascism going on in europe these days, and robert spencer and friends see no reason to disassociate from it. They are, in fact, enabling it. I hope you give this some thought.
| 70 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:44:07am |
re: #58 cliffster
Isn't the Fed declaring that the economy is recovering a bit of fox declaring the henhouse safe?
I'm still going to cross my fingers. There's a lot of hardship out there, and it would be nice to see it abate.
| 71 |
itellu3times Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:44:14am |
When you fall off a cliff, and hit bottom, things have firmed.
| 72 |
pre-Boomer Marine brat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:44:41am |
| 73 |
Killgore Trout Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:44:44am |
re: #66 OldLineTexan
We won't see the numbers until the quarter is over.
| 74 |
pat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:45:01am |
Jobs are a lagging indicator, and productivity in some businesses is at a level where historically we would see hiring. But this is not occurring. Partly out of fear and partly to recoup losses. But we have also seen entire manufacturies, retail chains, and thousands of smaller businesses disappear. I fear the bizarre spending antics of Obama and Congress, the runaway taxation by the individual States, along with a jobless recovery may cause a second recession.
| 75 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:45:05am |
| 76 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:45:15am |
re: #53 Charles
So you think you should be able to promote your site at LGF, even though you're linking to people who absolutely hate my guts and frequently attack me publicly?
And you really think this is just a "blogwar" that you can stay out of?
Charles, I'm commenting on a thread, not promoting my site. Am I not supposed to be interacting over here as a reader? :)
Regards,
Brian
(I'll remove the link from my username if that's offensive, though you'll probably notice from ye olde logs that I haven't submitted anything to LinkViewer in months... There's more to life than self-promotion, after all! :) )
| 77 |
lawhawk Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:45:30am |
re: #71 itellu3times
And the concerns among economists are that we might see a U recession or even worse, a double dip recession, which is surprisingly similar to the dead cat bounce recession.
| 78 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:45:30am |
re: #73 Killgore Trout
We won't see the numbers until the quarter is over.
Yes, that's usually the way it works.
If you want the actual numbers.
| 79 |
researchok Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:46:44am |
I'm less sanguine when it comes to the numbers (remember, every bear market has a bull rally).
When unemployment drops to 6% level (we're talking about creating a couple of million new, real jobs), I'll breathe easier.
| 80 |
cliffster Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:46:48am |
re: #78 OldLineTexan
Yes, that's usually the way it works.
If you want the actual numbers.
In that case you'll have to wait 6 more months. We will know in 6 months how things are right now.
| 81 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:46:51am |
Sorry for OT ;-) since I'm travelling the ME (Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel) for some months I'm a bit late for commenting this threat
What about this:
Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world's top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter "one or even two decades during which temperatures cool. "People will say this is global warming disappearing," Latif told more than 1500 of the world's top climate scientists gathering in Geneva at the UN's World Climate Conference. Few climate scientists go as far as Latif, an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But more and more agree that the short-term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought.
Response of a reader:
"Does this mean we can now study the climate without relying on mass hysteria and scare tactics?"
| 82 |
Walter L. Newton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:46:52am |
re: #76 snapped shot
Charles, I'm commenting on a thread, not promoting my site. Am I not supposed to be interacting over here as a reader? :)
Regards,
Brian(I'll remove the link from my username if that's offensive, though you'll probably notice from ye olde logs that I haven't submitted anything to LinkViewer in months... There's more to life than self-promotion, after all! :) )
You input is needed... an email from me to Robert Spencer and his answer...
By the way, did anyone ever see this?
"Robert, can you answer one simple question for me. This would help a lot in deciding what is really going on here. Which European political parties do you UNCONDITIONALLY condemn because of their proven ties to racist nationalism?" (Walter L. Newton email to Robert Spencer sent on Friday, November 07, 2008 1:16 PM)
And his answer...
"Actually, I am fighting jihad, and have no interest in or intention to investigate these groups. Insofar as they are fighting jihad, I applaud them. Insofar as they are doing anything else, my endorsement is not implied." (Robert Spencer email answer to Walter L. Newton sent on Sat 11/8/2008 10:39 AM)
| 83 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:46:57am |
re: #66 OldLineTexan
The Federal Fiscal Year First Quarter starts Oct. 1.
So we ARE in the fourth quarter of THIS Fiscal Year, right now, unless I misread the calendar.
I am sure they mean 4Q NEXT fiscal year ...
So, another year and then everything will be fine? Whew! Only 300 more days until the economy gets better! I can hardly wait!re: #78 OldLineTexan
Yes, that's usually the way it works.
If you want the actual numbers.
I want to see the rosy ones that make me feel better...can't we see those instead?
| 84 |
greygandalf Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:47:29am |
re: #58 cliffster
Isn't the Fed declaring that the economy is recovering a bit of fox declaring the henhouse safe?
Since the fed didn't see the crash in the first place, I'd say more like the cow in the barn declaring the hen house safe.
| 85 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:47:51am |
re: #76 snapped shot
Charles, I'm commenting on a thread, not promoting my site. Am I not supposed to be interacting over here as a reader? :)
Regards,
Brian(I'll remove the link from my username if that's offensive, though you'll probably notice from ye olde logs that I haven't submitted anything to LinkViewer in months... There's more to life than self-promotion, after all! :) )
Again -- I'm not asking you to do anything you don't want to do. I just want to clarify what's going on here.
I take this very seriously, and I'm not going to just sit back and say nothing when people paint it as a trivial issue.
| 86 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:47:56am |
re: #80 cliffster
In that case you'll have to wait 6 more months. We will know in 6 months how things are right now.
Yes, it takes a rear view mirror to really have a handle on this stuff.
Oddly enough, I am very familiar with the processes, go through them every year.
| 87 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:48:18am |
| 88 |
avanti Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:48:31am |
re: #79 researchok
I'm less sanguine when it comes to the numbers (remember, every bear market has a bull rally).
When unemployment drops to 6% level (we're talking about creating a couple of million new, real jobs), I'll breathe easier.
That could be a decade or more. Once a business finds out it can run lean, it's slow to build a bigger payroll.
| 89 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:48:44am |
OT: I imagine this was already covered in some previous thread, but just in case:
In Jay Nordlinger's most recent "Impromptus" at National Review Online, he gives fairly extensive praise to the work of our very own... zombie.
There is a website called “zombietime,” and its materials make for pretty rough, discomforting viewing. Here, the site has gathered many pictures taken at anti-Bush and anti-war rallies — and Obama rallies. They show signs and such screaming for the murder of Bush. They show pictures of Bush with a bullet through his head. They show depictions of Bush being guillotined. They show Bush being burned in effigy. Etc., etc.This is awful, vile, jacobinical stuff — stuff you are not supposed to see in this easygoing, constitutional, non-extremist country.
And the collection reminds us, not just of the hatred directed at Bush for all those years, but of the murderous hatred directed at him.
[...]
“zombietime” is an amazing site. According to Wikipedia (here), it is “maintained by ‘zombie,’ a pseudonymous photographer,” and “documents apparent [!] far-left, antisemitic, or anti-American views and public indecency at political demonstrations, street festivals and other public events.”
And the photographer himself, or herself?
“zombie” . . . spells that name with a lower-case “z,” and has never revealed their real name, gender, age or profession. In a winter 2006 interview with the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics, zombie states that they did not initially intend to set up a website at all; rather, having been “left-wing” their entire life, and having attended many protests and rallies, zombie decided to go to the anti-war rally in San Francisco on February 16, 2003, bringing a digital camera purchased the day before. The signs carried at the rally “shocked and mortified” zombie.
He or she said, “There were overtly anti-Semitic signs, banners blaming 9/11 on conspirators in the U.S. government, guys dressed up as suicide bombers, and all sorts of craziness. I took out my new camera and started clicking away. By the time the march was over, I was a changed person. If that was what the ‘Left’ had become, then I wanted no part of it.”
| 90 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:48:47am |
re: #81 zuckerlilly
Incoming!
I'm not done with breakfast, but I'm going to hide. However upsetting last year's numbers, they cannot begin to compete with what's about to happen.
| 91 |
itellu3times Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:49:04am |
re: #77 lawhawk
And the concerns among economists are that we might see a U recession or even worse, a double dip recession, which is surprisingly similar to the dead cat bounce recession.
For example, the Dow is waaay about its 200 day moving average line. Now, normally, this would indicate the Dow is going to fall back to the line. However, after large or unique excursions, normal laws don't necessarily apply.
IOW, nobody knows.
And we still have the looming impact of several TRILLION dollars in borrowed and newly printed money, which is not supposed to be harmless, in much the same way as the sea is not above the sky.
/last simile stolen from Douglas Adams, "Vogons are not above a little graft in much the same way etc"
| 92 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:49:33am |
re: #59 mrbaracuda
Well, you are German then I guess! :-)
Born there, in "Dunkel-Deutschland" as its called sometimes now (The Eastern part, behind the Iron Curtain), but now I visit the Fatherland just on vaccation and for family affairs.
Jewish life in Germany - it's a contradiction.
| 93 |
Vicious Babushka Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:49:37am |
Let me guess. The 12th economic region is Michigan. Am I right?
| 94 |
MandyManners Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:50:03am |
re: #85 Charles
Didn't Spencer help revamp the deuce's site?
| 96 |
SixDegrees Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:50:40am |
re: #58 cliffster
Isn't the Fed declaring that the economy is recovering a bit of fox declaring the henhouse safe?
No; their reports are based on actual data, and are completely transparent. The Fed's job is to maintain stable monetary policy; they have no vested interest in the economy's performance, and they are entirely independent of other branches of government.
Note that the Fed's assessment is hardly a glowing one. It's simply noting that the economy appears to have stopped getting worse. Mostly.
| 98 |
Vicious Babushka Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:00am |
| 99 |
Ben Hur Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:01am |
Just in time for the stimulus $ to kick in in a few months.
| 100 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:08am |
re: #64 Charles
This isn't something trivial, Brian, and I'm really not appreciating the attempt to paint it that way. Spencer is hooked up with some really bad people. That's not a joke to me.
As I've said to you previously, I respect the hell out of *both* of you, and will not be picking sides in your disagreement.
Regards,
Brian
| 101 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:35am |
re: #98 Alouette
What economic region is Detroit in?
12th level of Hell region...it's not getting better there right now...
| 102 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:45am |
re: #81 zuckerlilly
If I may ask,
how are you entering Syria and Lebanon into Israel or visa-versa when they don't have any relations ?
| 103 |
MandyManners Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:53am |
re: #89 Occasional Reader
OT: I imagine this was already covered in some previous thread, but just in case:
In Jay Nordlinger's most recent "Impromptus" at National Review Online, he gives fairly extensive praise to the work of our very own... zombie.
I just sent this to zombie!
| 104 |
blangwort Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:51:58am |
A recovery is almost inevitable. The only question is how far up we're going to have to climb to get back to where we were before.
That said, if you have a million economists (monkeys) all predicting the future, eventually one of them has to get it right. That one economist will earn a really nice job somewhere for "predicting" the economic recovery.
As you can tell, I don't have a lot of reverence for economists.
| 105 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:52:02am |
re: #98 Alouette
What economic region is Detroit in?
It's referred to in the trade as 'The Shitter' ... I know this technical jargon can be mind-numbing, but it's imperative to keep up-to-date in order to follow the discussions.
///
| 106 |
cliffster Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:52:28am |
re: #96 SixDegrees
No; their reports are based on actual data, and are completely transparent. The Fed's job is to maintain stable monetary policy; they have no vested interest in the economy's performance, and they are entirely independent of other branches of government.
Note that the Fed's assessment is hardly a glowing one. It's simply noting that the economy appears to have stopped getting worse. Mostly.
In theory, yes. But it's run by people, and people care about perceptions, and they want people to like them. So, to a certain degree, that transparency is not there.
Let Ron Paul get his way auditing the Fed, and the transparency will go away real fast.
| 107 |
pre-Boomer Marine brat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:52:36am |
re: #89 Occasional Reader
OT: I imagine this was already covered in some previous thread, but just in case:
In Jay Nordlinger's most recent "Impromptus" at National Review Online, he gives fairly extensive praise to the work of our very own... zombie.
Excellent, thank you!
/inclined to run over and give zom a {*} hug, but I'm afraid of the possible ... heh ... consequences of getting that close
| 108 |
Walter L. Newton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:52:47am |
re: #105 OldLineTexan
It's referred to in the trade as 'The Shitter' ... I know this technical jargon can be mind-numbing, but it's imperative to keep up-to-date in order to follow the discussions.
///
I thought it was the "Arm Pit?" No, wait, that's Houston. Sorry :)
| 109 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:52:48am |
re: #102 Earth56
If I may ask,
how are you entering Syria and Lebanon into Israel or visa-versa when they don't have any relations ?
He learned a few tricks in China near the Norko border?
/
| 110 |
greygandalf Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:53:41am |
re: #96 SixDegrees
No; their reports are based on actual data, and are completely transparent. The Fed's job is to maintain stable monetary policy; they have no vested interest in the economy's performance, and they are entirely independent of other branches of government.
Note that the Fed's assessment is hardly a glowing one. It's simply noting that the economy appears to have stopped getting worse. Mostly.
If they have no vested interest in the economy's performance, how come they can raise or low the discount rate?
| 111 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:53:56am |
re: #108 Walter L. Newton
I thought it was the "Arm Pit?" No, wait, that's Houston. Sorry :)
No apology necessary.
/ka-ching
Y'all keep buying oil, chemicals, plastics, and what-not.
;)
| 112 |
researchok Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:54:00am |
re: #88 avanti
That could be a decade or more. Once a business finds out it can run lean, it's slow to build a bigger payroll.
All too true.
To further complicate matters, factor in the lesson learned that governmrnt will bail you out if you (and it is politically expedient at the time).
| 113 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:54:27am |
re: #100 snapped shot
Brian- I do hope you know that a lot of what the so-called counter-jihadi bloggers are telling us is based on distortions. For example- the demographics issue. It's completely overblown. These people have lost all credibility in my mind. You, of course, might see it differently, but I again hope you take the time to consider what this means, and who is on the side of fascists, and who is on the side of decency. Thanks.
| 114 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:54:43am |
re: #100 snapped shot
As I've said to you previously, I respect the hell out of *both* of you, and will not be picking sides in your disagreement.
Regards,
Brian
Connections to fascist groups don't bother you? Links to bigoted hate sites like Brussels Journal don't bother you? Links to sites where they call for violence against me -- none of that bothers you?
It's just a "disagreement?"
| 115 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:55:03am |
re: #109 OldLineTexan
He learned a few tricks in China near the Norko border?
/
Unless you have some diplomatic status or deciding to build some tunnels I can't see how
| 116 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:55:10am |
re: #102 Earth56
If I may ask,
how are you entering Syria and Lebanon into Israel or visa-versa when they don't have any relations ?
Mostly via Egypt.
| 117 |
Walter L. Newton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:55:28am |
re: #111 OldLineTexan
No apology necessary.
/ka-ching
Y'all keep buying oil, chemicals, plastics, and what-not.
;)
I lived there, remember, for six years. One of the most popular sayings I heard was "If there wasn't a New Orleans, Houston would be it."
| 118 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:56:07am |
“zombie” . . . spells that name with a lower-case “z,” and has never revealed their real name, gender, age or profession.
I know for a FACT that "zombie" is a hermaphroditic, 23 year-old public telephone sanitizer. Oh, and his/her real name is "René", sometimes spelled "Renée".
/
| 119 |
Vicious Babushka Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:56:13am |
re: #105 OldLineTexan
It's referred to in the trade as 'The Shitter' ... I know this technical jargon can be mind-numbing, but it's imperative to keep up-to-date in order to follow the discussions.
///
There are third world countries that are in better economic condition than Detroit.
| 120 |
Floppydusk Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:56:40am |
Recent headlines speak of the UN promoting a global currency, the President asking for higher debt ceiling, the Chinese who buy US debt are very nervous - and now the Economy is Mending. I like good econ news as much as the next but the economic dissonance in these reports is clear. The flood of stimulus cash has simply forstalled the ultimate sell off - the bottom has not yet been reached.
| 121 |
Bob Dillon Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:56:41am |
re: #82 Walter L. Newton
fighting jihad, and have no interest in or intention to investigate these groups. Insofar as they are fighting jihad, I applaud them. Insofar as they are doing anything else, my endorsement is not implied." (Robert Spencer email answer to Walter L. Newton sent on Sat 11/8/2008 10:39 AM)
Isn't there a children's story about an undesirable animal in someones home - they get a larger predator to get rid of it. Then another and another - it escalates out of control?
Guess he missed that one growing up.
And kink of like "when you're up to your ass in alligators - it's tough to recall that your original intention was to drain the swamp."
Red flags some choose to ignore.
| 122 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:57:08am |
re: #116 Joshua Cohen
Mostly via Egypt.
I guess it has to start with the other countrys and Israel last . What does he do that has him go to Israel AND the other countrys ?
| 123 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:57:27am |
re: #102 Earth56
I started in Lebanon (visa at the border without problems) over to Syria (visa of the Syrian embassy in Vienna) to Jordan (visa at the borders without probems). currently I'm in Israel, some questions at the border about my visas and stamps but nothing serious (despite the fakt, that the lost some of my laguage and I had to wait for hours at a Friday. Ramadan and Shabbat bevor the door ;-)) it was no fun).
| 124 |
SixDegrees Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:57:29am |
re: #98 Alouette
What economic region is Detroit in?
Pretty sure we fall into Chicago's Federal Reserve region.
Things are definitely not improving around here. The pace of decline may have slowed, or maybe even stopped - you hit bottom eventually, although Detroit has certainly been known to do that an start digging in the past.
| 125 |
DaChew Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:57:52am |
re: #119 Alouette
There are third world countries that are in better economic condition than Detroit.
Yeah but how many of 'em got a great big fist pointed at Canada?
| 126 |
gregb Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:58:00am |
Venture Capital investments are typically a good 6 month leading indicator--at least in California, I'd say there's still a little winter left in that groundhog.
| 127 |
avanti Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:58:09am |
re: #100 snapped shot
As I've said to you previously, I respect the hell out of *both* of you, and will not be picking sides in your disagreement.
Regards,
Brian
No dog in this fight, but I don't get the "respect" for the other guy. I could accept he may have some good data in a area or two, but is that information worth the association ?
| 128 |
swamprat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:58:19am |
The irrational fear of the new president with new ideas; part of the economy downturn, is coming to a close.
We still have the; caboodles of unfunded cash spent like drunken sailors with stolen creditcards, inflationary spiral , to overcome.
This is the part of the rollercoaster that goes
click, click, click.
Soros is waiting at the bottom to
rifle through our belongings as we lay helpless...
catch us at the end.
| 129 |
MandyManners Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:58:24am |
re: #122 Earth56
I guess it has to start with the other countrys and Israel last . What does he do that has him go to Israel AND the other countrys ?
I'm keeping my pedant stuffed in the filing cabinet.
| 130 |
pre-Boomer Marine brat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:58:36am |
re: #118 Occasional Reader
I know for a FACT that "zombie" is a hermaphroditic, 23 year-old public telephone sanitizer. Oh, and his/her real name is "René", sometimes spelled "Renée".
/
I'll be waiting for you to Renée-ge on that !
| 131 |
efuseakay Wed, Sep 9, 2009 11:58:53am |
I guess foreclosures are a "lagging indicator"... Just like unemployment... lol
| 133 |
Spare O'Lake Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:00:24pm |
Out of enlightened self-interest, most Canadians pray for America's quick and speedy economic recovery.
We do worry about the sustainability of your vast national debt and long-standing pattern of structural budgetary deficits.
| 134 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:00:27pm |
re: #114 Charles
Connections to fascist groups don't bother you? Links to bigoted hate sites like Brussels Journal don't bother you? Links to sites where they call for violence against me -- none of that bothers you?
It's just a "disagreement?"
Again: My continued linking of Paul after his implied threats against you was an oversight, not something I endorsed or accepted. Obviously that kind of rhetoric "bothers" me.
As regards to the esteemed Mr. Spencer, I have yet to see any convincing evidence that he's a Nazi-in-hiding. And I don't personally link the Brussels Journal, so I don't understand where that relates to me.
(Unless we Lizardoids are now required do a depth-first hierarchical scan of our blogrolls before commenting here, that is. ;) )
Regards,
Brian
| 136 |
reloadingisnotahobby Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:00:41pm |
Well with the Chinese looking down their noses at U.S. ...
Maybe we should consider "Rice Futures"!
/
| 137 |
Randall Gross Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:00:54pm |
re: #119 Alouette
Congrats on the wedding, missed that last night
| 138 |
Wendya Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:01:02pm |
re: #35 Locker
Waiting for the numerous replies claiming the following:
1. We aren't really in recovery
2. Obama administration didn't do anything to aid the recovery, it happened in spite of yadda yadda
3. The stimulus didn't help and is/was a failure
4. Obama PROMISED!!! that unemployment wouldn't go over 10 percent and that was the ONLY reason the stimulus was passed. FAIL!Perhaps I'll be wrong. That would be wonderful.
I don't know if we are in a recovery or not. Let's see the GDP data for the next two quarters before we throw on our party hats.
As for the stimulus, I really haven't seen any indication that it's had an impact on the economy either way. What percentage has been released to date? It certainly isn't driving the private sector.
The CBO estimates the unemployment rate will continue to increase each month to 10.2% next year. I imagine that's a fairly conservative estimate. With a "real" unemployment rate of closer to 16%, there isn't going to be much positive public sentiment when the government declares the recession is over.
| 140 |
experiencedtraveller Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:01:18pm |
Seems we have some 'buy the rumor sell the news' trading going on today...
| 141 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:01:41pm |
re: #123 zuckerlilly
Thanks for the answer. Why did you travel through Lebanon,Syria,Jordan to Israel. You can't be Israeli,thats for sure.
| 142 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:01:45pm |
re: #134 snapped shot
As regards to the
esteemedMr. Spencer, I have yet to see any convincing evidence that he's a Nazi-in-hiding.
Maybe you should do some more reading?
| 143 |
Land Shark Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:02:07pm |
re: #33 snapped shot
Robert Spencer is still an extremely authoritative source on Islamic texts, as far as I am concerned. I'm aware of the dispute you two have been having, but would like to refrain from picking sides if at all possible, seeing how greatly I respect both of you. :)
Regards,
Brian
I agree Spencer is still an authority on Islamic texts. I've been able to look up and confirm quite a bit of it.
My problem with him is that he's on record saying that essentially he supports organizations that might be fascist or racist because they are also anti-jihadi. A variation of the "the enemies of my enemies are my friends." Fascists and white supremacists are of the same ilk as the Islamists. Intolerant assholes. And fascists and white supremacists have that Jooo hating thing in common with the Islamists.
Trust me, I had a lot of admiration for Spencer. But I don't anymore.
| 144 |
SixDegrees Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:02:22pm |
re: #125 DaChew
Yeah but how many of 'em got a great big fist pointed at Canada?
Last time I looked, it was aligned parallel to the shoreline, pointed more or less at Cobo Hall.
I've proposed creating a new city symbol. In light of the city's financial condition, it's best to recycle what we already have. So start with the Spirit of Detroit sculpture. Tip him over on his face, ass in the air. Now, take The Fist...
| 145 |
pat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:02:39pm |
The most important lesson we have learned from this recession is that it was government caused. First the government encouraged poor banking practices and then it allowed trading in phantom assets with no regulation. Lastly it rewarded those traders and their "insurers" with bailouts.
| 146 |
Killgore Trout Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:03:21pm |
re: #138 Wendya
As for the stimulus, I really haven't seen any indication that it's had an impact on the economy either way. What percentage has been released to date?
I was looking for an article from last week and can't find it. Certain things from the stimulus package are working. We'll know in a couple years what worked and what didn't.
| 147 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:03:32pm |
re: #127 avanti
No dog in this fight, but I don't get the "respect" for the other guy. I could accept he may have some good data in a area or two, but is that information worth the association ?
I "respect" people who spend time actually studying the things we B.S. about in the blogosphere. And Robert has definitely done the *academic* research to earn such respect.
(Are there any other Lizardoids that have done nearly as much research on the theology of Islam that he has?)
Regards,
Brian
| 148 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:03:47pm |
re: #118 Occasional Reader
I know for a FACT that "zombie" is a hermaphroditic, 23 year-old public telephone sanitizer. Oh, and his/her real name is "René", sometimes spelled "Renée".
/
And somehow, this post earned a downding from "snapped shot". Wow.
| 149 |
OldLineTexan Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:04:15pm |
re: #117 Walter L. Newton
I lived there, remember, for six years. One of the most popular sayings I heard was "If there wasn't a New Orleans, Houston would be it."
Six years one August.
;)
| 150 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:05:12pm |
re: #147 snapped shot
And enabling fascists has caused him to lose respect. For some of us, anyways.
| 151 |
Walter L. Newton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:05:13pm |
re: #147 snapped shot
I "respect" people who spend time actually studying the things we B.S. about in the blogosphere. And Robert has definitely done the *academic* research to earn such respect.
(Are there any other Lizardoids that have done nearly as much research on the theology of Islam that he has?)
Regards,
Brian
Evidently he doesn't do enough research on groups that he supports, and he has no desire to...
By the way, did anyone ever see this?
"Robert, can you answer one simple question for me. This would help a lot in deciding what is really going on here. Which European political parties do you UNCONDITIONALLY condemn because of their proven ties to racist nationalism?" (Walter L. Newton email to Robert Spencer sent on Friday, November 07, 2008 1:16 PM)
And his answer...
"Actually, I am fighting jihad, and have no interest in or intention to investigate these groups. Insofar as they are fighting jihad, I applaud them. Insofar as they are doing anything else, my endorsement is not implied." (Robert Spencer email answer to Walter L. Newton sent on Sat 11/8/2008 10:39 AM)
That's your hero?
| 152 |
Dr. Shalit Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:05:40pm |
"...Economy IS Improving..." - Trust But Verify, That is all.
-S-
| 153 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:06:03pm |
re: #123 zuckerlilly
I started in Lebanon (visa at the border without problems) over to Syria (visa of the Syrian embassy in Vienna) to Jordan (visa at the borders without probems). currently I'm in Israel, some questions at the border about my visas and stamps but nothing serious (despite the fakt, that the lost some of my laguage and I had to wait for hours at a Friday. Ramadan and Shabbat bevor the door ;-)) it was no fun).
Mkay - Jordan - the other way - and Israel as the last station.
As long as you do not hold a Israeli Passport (or then even if you are of Arab descent) - it is not impossible.
Even with Israeli Visa it is possible to enter Lebanon or even Syria. Just a question of money and or relations.
I prefer a second "clean" Passport (of another country than Israel) for these situations.
| 154 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:07:46pm |
(If I might interject an on-topic comment: Judging by numbers like these, we are not nearly as close to an economic "recovery" as the Federal Reserve wishes we were.)
;)
Regards,
B.
| 155 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:07:58pm |
re: #151 Walter L. Newton
"
Actually, I am fighting jihad, and have no interest in or intention to investigate these groups. Insofar as they are fighting jihad, I applaud them. Insofar as they are doing anything else, my endorsement is not implied." (Robert Spencer email
Wow.
Well, that about sums it up. "If they're 'fighting jihad', good! If they're also Nazis... [yawn]."
Thanks for clearing that up, Bobby.
| 156 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:08:20pm |
re: #134 snapped shot
Again: My continued linking of Paul after his implied threats against you was an oversight, not something I endorsed or accepted.
There was no "implied" threat, Brian. He said outright that I should be executed. That's not an "implication," it's hate speech.
And if you are still unconvinced that Robert Spencer is connected to some very bad people, it's because you're ignoring the evidence.
It's attitudes like yours that allow these people to prosper and advance their agendas.
| 157 |
totalkaosdave Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:08:27pm |
Recession, by definition, is 2 quarters of positive growth. It is rather premature to claim the recession is over. However, when you only quote "analysts", no one really has to take the blame when it doesn't happen.
| 158 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:08:27pm |
re: #148 Occasional Reader
And somehow, this post earned a downding from "snapped shot". Wow.
What? Did I miss the sarcasm tag? :)
D'oh. (insert facepalm here)
B.
| 159 |
experiencedtraveller Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:08:37pm |
re: #148 Occasional Reader
And somehow, this post earned a downding from "snapped shot". Wow.
Telephone sanitizers union rep?
| 160 |
Pianobuff Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:08:47pm |
re: #146 Killgore Trout
I was looking for an article from last week and can't find it. Certain things from the stimulus package are working. We'll know in a couple years what worked and what didn't.
If the recession is over, can we cancel the rest of the stimulus spending? Please, pretty please?
| 161 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:09:16pm |
re: #153 Joshua Cohen
Thanks for the answer.
Now that I know that my American passport is clean and shows no entrys into Israel I can visit Cousin Saud in Medina for a barrel of tea.
| 162 |
debutaunt Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:10:01pm |
re: #21 Sharmuta
Will a turnaround help fend off inflation?
I'm concerned that printing money will be needed (foolishly) to pay for all the stuff they are spending our taxes on.
| 163 |
Vicious Babushka Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:10:17pm |
re: #125 DaChew
Yeah but how many of 'em got a great big fist pointed at Canada?
How many Lizards know that is literally true.
Nothing against Canada in particular. They really wanted to point it in the other direction, towards 8 Mile.
| 164 |
subsailor68 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:10:18pm |
OT, but is it really?
This California assemblyman is a Republican. WTH is going on with these people anyway? It's revolting.
| 166 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:11:15pm |
re: #141 Earth56
No, I'm no Israeli, I'm Austrian (non-Jewish). But in Damascus i met two British-Jewish young ladies in a hostel, which owner is a Palestinian with Australian citizenship. The most funniest and most amiable guy you can imagine.
I discovered a lot of interesting stuff about Palestinians in this countries for my work (one of the reasons I traveled this countries).
| 167 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:11:19pm |
re: #160 Pianobuff
If the recession is over, can we cancel the rest of the stimulus spending? Please, pretty please?
But then how would we "create" all those "green jobs"?
You're probably one of those evil white people who wants to kill the ghetto with pollution, aren't you?!
/
| 168 |
Randall Gross Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:11:25pm |
Fox reporting that an airplane has been hijacked in Cancun, and is being or has been flown to Mexico City
| 170 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:11:46pm |
re: #162 debutaunt
I'm concerned that printing money will be needed (foolishly) to pay for all the stuff they are spending our taxes on.
And given how the dollar's getting hammered lately, that's a well-founded concern.
| 171 |
Conservative in Liberal Hands Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:12:39pm |
Sorry to pour ice cold water on the notion that "The Economy" is getting better.
Retail Sales are extremely depressed and Retailers are having a spate of losses. Throughout the Chicago area, landlords are reporting and discussing in increasing number of "jingle letters" from their tenants. What's a "jingle letter", you may ask? That's a letter with the keys to the (abandoned) storefront. Demands for reduced rents are now the norm. How long will it take before MSM notices the closing of marquee shopping destinations and the loss in both property and sales tax revenues?
For local economies, I fear that the worst is to come and not in the past.
| 172 |
MandyManners Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:12:54pm |
re: #168 Thanos
Fox reporting that an airplane has been hijacked in Cancun, and is being or has been flown to Mexico City
It's landed.
| 173 |
Killgore Trout Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:13:13pm |
re: #160 Pianobuff
If the recession is over, can we cancel the rest of the stimulus spending? Please, pretty please?
Probably not. Much of it is necessary. As far as I can tell pretty much every country on planet earth had some sort of economic stimulus plan. There's no reason we shouldn't have one. We are not immune from the reality of economics.
| 174 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:13:15pm |
re: #168 Thanos
Fox reporting that an airplane has been hijacked in Cancun, and is being or has been flown to Mexico City
Yikes.
| 176 |
MandyManners Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:14:12pm |
re: #147 snapped shot
I hope you're reading the links Sharmuta is posting.
| 177 |
Walter L. Newton Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:14:25pm |
| 178 |
Lee Coller Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:14:59pm |
re: #154 snapped shot
(If I might interject an on-topic comment: Judging by numbers like these, we are not nearly as close to an economic "recovery" as the Federal Reserve wishes we were.)
;)
Regards,
B.
You are aware that employment is generally a trailing indicator of a recovery?
| 179 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:14:59pm |
re: #166 zuckerlilly
No, I'm no Israeli, I'm Austrian (non-Jewish). But in Damascus i met two British-Jewish young ladies in a hostel, which owner is a Palestinian with Australian citizenship. The most funniest and most amiable guy you can imagine.
I discovered a lot of interesting stuff about Palestinians in this countries for my work (one of the reasons I traveled this countries).
Crazy world it is but beautiful in many ways. I said 30 years ago if there was any peace in the ME it would blossom into a paradise. Just wishing I guess and its a shame with Lebanon and Beirut which was once the "Paris" of the ME. How is it now ?
| 180 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:15:06pm |
re: #172 MandyManners
It's landed.
I do hope it's just some disgruntled frat boys who got shortchanged at "Señor Frog's", and not something more lethal.
| 181 |
Pianobuff Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:15:10pm |
re: #167 Occasional Reader
But then how would we "create" all those "green jobs"?
You're probably one of those evil white people who wants to kill the ghetto with pollution, aren't you?!
/
I'd be prepared to say that the green jobs and all others claimed to have been created have, indeed, been created. I'd even proclaim that Obama saved the day and that I'm crapping polka dots and moonbeams if it meant they would cancel the rest of the spending.
| 182 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:15:46pm |
| 183 |
debutaunt Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:16:10pm |
re: #55 _RememberTonyC
the economy was going to recover eventually. the government probably needed to get involved to a certain extent to jump start things in some areas, but my concern is that the dems and their cheerleaders in the MSM will spin the (eventual) recovery as being the result of the brilliant Obama economic stimulus plan as opposed to mostly being the result of the economy bottoming out and starting the long climb back to health.
just my two cents, which adjusted for inflation means just my "dime."
I think your dime became two cents.
| 184 |
DaChew Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:16:14pm |
re: #144 SixDegrees
It isn't pointed at Cobo Hall. If it extended it's pinky straight out - that would be pointed at Cobo. In the picture you link, you can just see the Passo di Danza (naked chick statue) which faces Jefferson Avenue which ends right at the front door of Cobo. That building is at the intersection of Woodward and Jefferson. Woodward runs North and South and ends right at Jefferson. The Fist points right at the river front.
| 185 |
Sharmuta Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:16:39pm |
re: #182 snapped shot
That's not evidence, that's poor Facebook for Mobile operation. Hardly worth burning down the house over, eh?
Maybe- except for claiming Charles set him up to join it.
| 186 |
UFO TOFU Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:16:52pm |
re: #164 subsailor68
Maybe it's not Republican so much as Californian.
| 187 |
Wendya Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:16:55pm |
re: #44 Land Shark
I certainly hope the recession is easing. I don't buy it since so many people keep losing their jobs and the unemployment rate just keeps rising. And I think once taxes start to go up to pay for all the spending we've seen from the Tarp bill (which was under GW's watch) to the still to come Health Care and Cap N' Trade bills, any recovery we see now will prove to be a mirage and the real depression will start.
But I want to be wrong. I already know too many people who've lost their jobs. I want to see the economy improve and people get back to work.
Tax revenues have dropped 18% this year and spending has skyrocketed. Individual income tax revenue is down 22 percent and corporate income tax revenue, 57 percent Payroll taxes are also expected to decline. The government is running out of people to tax.
| 188 |
swamprat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:17:43pm |
re: #131 efuseakay
I guess foreclosures are a "lagging indicator"... Just like unemployment... lol
[Link: www.msnbc.msn.com...]
Yes you are correct about foreclosures.
Many people paid inflated prices to buy before the prices went even further skyward. Others were part of the greedfest orgy. Homes from both groups will have a high foreclosure rate. But the downturn from trepidation over whether to soak in ones' own urine because (gasp!) the president is not a pro-business kind of guy, or whether to actually go ahead and get on with life... well, that bit of nonsense is over.
We still have other hurdles. We can continue being Americans, or we can wait for some hero to leap to the rescue.
Myself, I am not real big on blaming others for my problems, and I'm even less inclined to wait for heroes. I will make the best of whatever situation I find myself in, as will America.
| 189 |
cgrow Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:18:04pm |
It is a little early to declare the recession over. We need to at least record a quarter of growth before that can fairly be said.
Also, there are a number of factors including rising fuel prices, inflation, and overly optimistic investors pricing in too much good news into stocks that could easily contribute to a second recession as we emerge from this one. Compounding that is the steady loss of manufacturing jobs in this country. Even the auto bailouts are doing little to prevent those manufacturers and their suppliers from transferring jobs overseas. As China and India take over this capacity, our wages will either decline or many more jobs will be lost. If cap and trade is enacted, they will decline even more so. Then, we have a consumer base, which has been the engine that drove our economy for the last 60 years, that is now aging and or debt ridden and without a real estate bubble style hail mary to prop it back up.
In short, I see no reason to begin celebrating.
| 190 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:18:14pm |
re: #161 Earth56
Thanks for the answer.
Now that I know that my American passport is clean and shows no entrys into Israel I can visit Cousin Saud in Medina for a barrel of tea.
What I would like to know - is it still the rule that a Cubanian Visa in your Passport make a USA (re)entry a bit difficult?
| 191 |
Wendya Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:18:34pm |
re: #146 Killgore Trout
I was looking for an article from last week and can't find it. Certain things from the stimulus package are working. We'll know in a couple years what worked and what didn't.
Certain industries are benefiting. Construction, health care and government workers.
| 192 |
Pianobuff Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:18:55pm |
"The worst thing you can be is a liar...Okay fine, yes, the worst thing you can be is a Nazi, but THEN, number two is liar. Nazi 1, Liar 2"
Justin's Dad
(shitmydadsays)
| 193 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:19:42pm |
re: #178 Lee Coller
You are aware that employment is generally a trailing indicator of a recovery?
Gee, Lee - That's not what I've heard from the experts in the press over the past 8 years. Why is unemployment (in actual, almost *historic* numbers this time around) suddenly not matter in our economic forecasting, when it was a constant source of sorrow during the Bush years?
Could it really be true that unemployment numbers only matter when there's a (R) in the White House?
B.
| 194 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:19:46pm |
| 195 |
FQ Kafir Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:20:13pm |
All to often, exhortations of growth or stabilization precede a meaningful decline.
| 196 |
experiencedtraveller Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:20:36pm |
re: #187 Wendye
The government is running out of people to tax.
California, New York and New Jersey are just getting started with their taxation schemes. They're setting the standards. And its coming to a state near you very soon...
| 197 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:21:05pm |
re: #193 snapped shot
Why is unemployment (in actual, almost *historic* numbers this time around) suddenly not matter
I suck at parenthesis:
Why does unemployment (in actual, almost *historic* numbers this time around) suddenly not matter...
| 198 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:21:41pm |
re: #194 Joshua Cohen
I would say "Las Vegas" fits more.
Beirut ? Not 50 years ago and "Las Vegas " is just a town with facades anyways.
| 199 |
jcm Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:22:11pm |
re: #182 snapped shot
That's not evidence, that's poor Facebook for Mobile operation. Hardly worth burning down the house over, eh?
Regards,
Brian
Google, " Free Constantinople: The Nakba, May 29, 1453 ", since linking directly is discourage. Look at the logo and the read article.
| 200 |
theheat Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:24:14pm |
re: #134 snapped shot
Brian, I might not be the fastest reader in the world - maybe about 900 wpm last time I was clocked - but I'm trying to skim posts and get up to speed with my news here - and if my eye catches one more of your passive/aggressive smilies, I think I'm gonna puke.
It isn't even my argument, and I'm gritting my teeth thinking I'm probably going to regret posting this, but I hate the shit out of when someone argues with someone else, and then tacks a $%&/# smiley on the end, like a nervous little giggle.
And, frankly, I don't 'get' coming to someone's site (here) while quietly pimping your own, even though your site links to sites that not only are contrary to your host's intentions, but people who diss the shit out of them.
Anyway, if I had a smiley hammer right now, I'd be swinging like Paul F*cking Bunyan.
:-)
| 201 |
jcm Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:24:28pm |
*Gomer Pyle voice*
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise...
Venezuela’s Chavez accuses Israel of ‘genocide’
President says Gaza offensive was an ‘excuse to exterminate’ Palestinians
| 202 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:24:33pm |
re: #185 Sharmuta
Maybe- except for claiming Charles set him up to join it.
I don't think he claimed it, so much as he questioned the timing. But still: the whole Facebook matter was largely irrelevant. (Still going through that other article, of course.)
Regards,
Brian
| 203 |
Pianobuff Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:25:06pm |
From The Hill: Why tonight does not matter
When I first heard President Barack Obama would take his healthcare agenda directly to the American people through a live television address to a joint session of Congress, I thought it was pure political genius. The office of the presidency owns the bully pulpit. His party followers were growing restless (and reckless). They need to hear from their fearless leader. More importantly, Americans like him personally, and this was his best chance to speak to them, personally.
But it only took a few minutes to realize I was mistaken. Obama’s speech tonight is an idea whose time has come and gone. He has clearly lost momentum and his personal mojo on this issue. And in the coming days, it will be increasingly evident that tonight will yield no lasting impact on the outcome of health reform in this country, for three reasons.
(3 reasons at the link)
| 204 |
Last Mohican Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:25:13pm |
re: #190 Joshua Cohen
What I would like to know - is it still the rule that a Cubanian Visa in your Passport make a USA (re)entry a bit difficult?
Nah, we normalized our relations with Cubania years ago!
[Sorry, I couldn't resist. I apologize for having no actual information with which to answer your question.]
| 205 |
debutaunt Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:25:32pm |
re: #88 avanti
That could be a decade or more. Once a business finds out it can run lean, it's slow to build a bigger payroll.
If new businesses are encouraged, it will be a lot sooner, but if profits are discouraged, why invest?
| 206 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:26:38pm |
re: #200 theheat
Brian, I might not be the fastest reader in the world - maybe about 900 wpm last time I was clocked - but I'm trying to skim posts and get up to speed with my news here - and if my eye catches one more of your passive/aggressive smilies, I think I'm gonna puke.
It isn't even my argument, and I'm gritting my teeth thinking I'm probably going to regret posting this, but I hate the shit out of when someone argues with someone else, and then tacks a $%&/# smiley on the end, like a nervous little giggle.
And, frankly, I don't 'get' coming to someone's site (here) while quietly pimping your own, even though your site links to sites that not only are contrary to your host's intentions, but people who diss the shit out of them.
Anyway, if I had a smiley hammer right now, I'd be swinging like Paul F*cking Bunyan.
:-)
Sorry 'bout that. Only trying to maintain levity around here.
(Obviously you missed the part about me not trying to promote myself around here. Insert-winky-here.)
Regards,
Brian
| 207 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:27:08pm |
re: #199 jcm
Google, " Free Constantinople: The Nakba, May 29, 1453 ", since linking directly is discourage. Look at the logo and the read article.
I knew about the Arab invaders but its worth reading in detail again.
Thanks !
| 208 |
Desert Dog Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:27:15pm |
re: #164 subsailor68
OT, but is it really?
This California assemblyman is a Republican. WTH is going on with these people anyway? It's revolting.
What a dumbass...I hope the kettle of tar and bag of feather are all ready for this numbnut
| 209 |
cliffster Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:27:21pm |
re: #187 Wendya
Tax revenues have dropped 18% this year and spending has skyrocketed. Individual income tax revenue is down 22 percent and corporate income tax revenue, 57 percent Payroll taxes are also expected to decline. The government is running out of people to tax.
Looks like they are running out of other people's money.
| 210 |
Occasional Reader Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:27:39pm |
re: #201 jcm
*Gomer Pyle voice*
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise...
Venezuela’s Chavez accuses Israel of ‘genocide’
President says Gaza offensive was an ‘excuse to exterminate’ Palestinians
Yet another chapter in History's Least Competent "Genocide"®!
| 211 |
Charles Johnson Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:27:55pm |
re: #182 snapped shot
That's not evidence, that's poor Facebook for Mobile operation. Hardly worth burning down the house over, eh?
Regards,
Brian
You really don't want to see it, do you?
But thanks for reminding me to check for news on Spencer's latest excursion into extremism. There's a new post up now that you can ignore too.
| 212 |
Wendya Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:28:10pm |
re: #196 experiencedtraveller
California, New York and New Jersey are just getting started with their taxation schemes. They're setting the standards. And its coming to a state near you very soon...
As unemployment rises, tax and payroll receipts decline. Increases in taxation will not lower unemployment, it will increase it further or keep it at steady at high rates.
What's the definition of insanity?
| 213 |
subsailor68 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:29:21pm |
re: #208 Desert Dog
What a dumbass...I hope the kettle of tar and bag of feather are all ready for this numbnut
Amazing isn't it? It seems to me that it isn't that politics creates this kind of bottom feeder, it's that politics seems to appeal to some people who are already bottom feeders before they even throw their hats in the ring.
(Note I did say "some"!)
;-)
| 214 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:29:24pm |
re: #201 jcm
*Gomer Pyle voice*
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise...
Venezuela’s Chavez accuses Israel of ‘genocide’
President says Gaza offensive was an ‘excuse to exterminate’ Palestinians
I wish the Spanish King would just remind him again to stfu !
| 215 |
SanFranciscoZionist Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:30:16pm |
re: #143 Land Shark
I agree Spencer is still an authority on Islamic texts. I've been able to look up and confirm quite a bit of it.
I honestly don't see him as having a great claim to any academic authority.
| 216 |
Bob Dillon Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:31:00pm |
re: #209 cliffster
Looks like they are running out of other people's money.
Ah - not a problem. Just crank up the presses.
| 217 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:31:14pm |
re: #199 jcm
Google, " Free Constantinople: The Nakba, May 29, 1453 ", since linking directly is discourage. Look at the logo and the read article.
Not sure what's objectionable about that. Seems to be a run-of-the-mill historical article, which isn't a crime I'm aware of (unless you're Robert Zinn, of course, in which case it *should* be!)
Regards,
Brian
| 218 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:31:43pm |
BTW: I am stuck for hours trying to install a fitting OS, that is modern, safe and usable enough, on my (older) notebook.
It's a pain in the ***!
I really considering doing my part for the economy and buying a new one - and worse - a Mac!
With the money they cost here, this would be a real stimulus for the economy!
Only problem: Apple does not make Toughbooks and my stuff needs to be a bit more robust than these charming Airbooks.
And Kindles are still unaviable here. :(
| 219 |
Charpete67 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:31:45pm |
re: #212 Wendya
As unemployment rises, tax and payroll receipts decline. Increases in taxation will not lower unemployment, it will increase it further or keep it at steady at high rates.
What's the definition of insanity?
...doing Jimmy Carter all over again while expecting different results...
| 220 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:32:53pm |
re: #179 Earth56
Just wishing I guess and its a shame with Lebanon and Beirut which was once the "Paris" of the ME. How is it now ?
Hot, very hot ;-))) without joke: they have rebuild a lot. But it is a shame that all the old houses were destroyed - not only by the civil war, but by speculators. Only one old "villa" is left at the famous "Corniche" and even this villa is nearly demolished. Downtown is nearly completely rebuild and you will find every famous brand of the world their and a lot of restaurants and cafés. Also the district of Hamra is very busy and well of. A lot of tourists are their from Kuwait and other Arab countries.
I met a young business woman their from Ramallah at the Starbucks and she gives a sh*t of all this religious stuff. She only wants to improve her business and her rights as a woman. But I was shocked of the refugee camps in Jordan. Some of them are sh*t holes and islamization is rising. Nearly all the woman are completely veiled. I haven´t seen this in the other camps in the ME.
| 221 |
jcm Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:33:34pm |
re: #217 snapped shot
Not sure what's objectionable about that. Seems to be a run-of-the-mill historical article, which isn't a crime I'm aware of (unless you're Robert Zinn, of course, in which case it *should* be!)
Regards,
Brian
Look at what the facebook crew advocates that RS signed up with. He walks right up to the edge, but doesn't quite fully jump in that article. Some of the phrasing and ideas are common between the two.
| 222 |
SixDegrees Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:33:45pm |
re: #193 snapped shot
Gee, Lee - That's not what I've heard from the experts in the press over the past 8 years. Why is unemployment (in actual, almost *historic* numbers this time around) suddenly not matter in our economic forecasting, when it was a constant source of sorrow during the Bush years?
Could it really be true that unemployment numbers only matter when there's a (R) in the White House?
B.
He didn't say it didn't matter - he said it's a lagging indicator, which is entirely true. Unemployment rates don't start to fall until a recovery is already well underway. Just as they don't rise significantly until after a downturn has already begun.
| 223 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:34:49pm |
re: #211 Charles
You really don't want to see it, do you?
But thanks for reminding me to check for news on Spencer's latest excursion into extremism. There's a new post up now that you can ignore too.
You mean kinda how you glossed over the charts I linked to, which pretty much puts a kibosh on the whole "Things are Looking Sunny Again" economic report you posted in *this* thread?
;)
(Sorry, theheat. Had ta do it!)
Regards,
Brian
| 224 |
jcm Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:35:17pm |
re: #218 Joshua Cohen
BTW: I am stuck for hours trying to install a fitting OS, that is modern, safe and usable enough, on my (older) notebook.
It's a pain in the ***!I really considering doing my part for the economy and buying a new one - and worse - a Mac!
With the money they cost here, this would be a real stimulus for the economy!
Only problem: Apple does not make Toughbooks and my stuff needs to be a bit more robust than these charming Airbooks.
And Kindles are still unaviable here. :(
The MacBook Pros are pretty rugged, mine get beat up pretty good. With the aluminum chassis and shell they solid.
| 225 |
snapped shot Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:37:06pm |
re: #221 jcm
Look at what the facebook crew advocates that RS signed up with. He walks right up to the edge, but doesn't quite fully jump in that article. Some of the phrasing and ideas are common between the two.
If I might interject a moment of Zen here: If you look hard enough, you can probably commonality in just about anything.
Or, put another way, if you read it with the preconceived notion that you're going to find evidence of naziism or "extremist links," you're likely to find it.
Just sayin'.
Regards,
Brian
| 226 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:37:12pm |
re: #220 zuckerlilly
To me its amazing that those refugee camps are there considering that Jordan is 90% Palestinian. Another case of people used as cannon fodder.
The scariest part of your observation is that Jordan is becoming more "Islamic". Not good for King Hussein, Israel or the MEl.
| 227 |
UFO TOFU Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:39:59pm |
re: #196 experiencedtraveller
You have that right. I received a letter from the California State Board of Equalization stating that industry studies indicate a likelihood that this business has purchased fixtures, equipment, machinery, etc. from outside the state. So they want me to review 2006-2008 and report any purchases made without tax paid, provide pages 1-8 of last year's Federal tax return, copy and submit asset depreciation schedule from past year and purchases journal from last year.
I'm just shaking my head. Like I'm going to purchase buses, fuel, parts or drivers from out of state. Their getting desperate.
| 228 |
Kosh's Shadow Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:42:06pm |
re: #227 UFO TOFU
You have that right. I received a letter from the California State Board of Equalization stating that industry studies indicate a likelihood that this business has purchased fixtures, equipment, machinery, etc. from outside the state. So they want me to review 2006-2008 and report any purchases made without tax paid, provide pages 1-8 of last year's Federal tax return, copy and submit asset depreciation schedule from past year and purchases journal from last year.
I'm just shaking my head. Like I'm going to purchase buses, fuel, parts or drivers from out of state. Their getting desperate.
It's the California Job Plan for Accountants, you understand.
Too many accountants are unemployed, so this will get companies to hire them.
/sarc, but it could get spun that way.
| 229 |
Vicious Babushka Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:42:35pm |
re: #201 jcm
*Gomer Pyle voice*
Surprise, Surprise, Surprise...
Venezuela’s Chavez accuses Israel of ‘genocide’
President says Gaza offensive was an ‘excuse to exterminate’ Palestinians
Israelis are just complete failures at this "genocide" thing.
| 230 |
jpkoch Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:42:43pm |
The Fed could be correct. On the other hand, with interest rates at 0%, and over $2 trillion of liquidity pumped into the economy via the Treasury's printing presses one would hope things would at the very least temporarily improve.
There are so many foreclosed homes on the market now, that investors with cash should be gobbling them up. This would hopefully lead to a stabilization in real estate. However, credit remains very tight, and little of the $2 trillion that has been printed is making it into the consumer credit markets. What's also should be looked at is the fact that so many Fortune 1000 Corporations have permanently shed their jobs or outsourced them to Asia. The business climate in the US doesn't look too bright right now, and many firms are going where the action is -Asia. Even Europe had positive GDP growth last quarter. So don't look at Wall St profits or gains to necessarily point the way out of this slump. We could very well have a jobless recovery.
And at some point, Bernecke will have to raise interest rates.
| 231 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:43:35pm |
| 232 |
debutaunt Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:43:55pm |
re: #216 Bobibutu
Ah - not a problem. Just crank up the presses.
No don't! Dianna's savings will be worth less!
| 233 |
Kosh's Shadow Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:45:01pm |
re: #230 jpkoch
And when interest rates go up, and credit cards with their "fed rate plus 15-20%" rates readjust, the credit card companies might make out well, if there aren't a lot of defaults, but spending isn't going to be able to pick up much.
| 234 |
SixDegrees Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:45:42pm |
re: #223 snapped shot
You mean kinda how you glossed over the charts I linked to, which pretty much puts a kibosh on the whole "Things are Looking Sunny Again" economic report you posted in *this* thread?
;)
(Sorry, theheat. Had ta do it!)
Regards,
Brian
I don't see a whole lot of sunshine in the report Charles linked.
The article you linked to concerns unemployment data, which is a trailing indicator; it won't turn downwards until a recovery has already gotten well underway. The classic measure of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP; given that GDP growth is nearly always positive, it's more difficult to say when a recession has ended, but a return to positive GDP growth for a couple of consecutive quarters is generally a good sign. Most data seems to suggest that the the current quarter will show some growth; this is a positive sign.
GDP growth will have to remain positive for several quarters, however, before companies begin hiring again. It will be quite a while before the unemployment rate begins to drop. As already noted, however, a recovery will have been well underway for some time before that happens.
| 235 |
jpkoch Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:48:14pm |
re: #234 SixDegrees
I'm afraid they are hiring again -in places like Hong Kong, Bombay, and Saigon.
| 236 |
Thor-Zone Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:50:27pm |
Yeah...sure...
If you believe that, have I got a deal for you!!
| 237 |
UFO TOFU Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:50:38pm |
I have an uncanny knack for posting my only comment of the day just as Charles puts up a new thread.
| 238 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:52:59pm |
re: #226 Earth56
To me its amazing that those refugee camps are there considering that Jordan is 90% Palestinian. Another case of people used as cannon fodder.
The scariest part of your observation is that Jordan is becoming more "Islamic". Not good for King Hussein, Israel or the MEl.
Not Jordan is becoming more "Islamic" only the camps. The Bedouins hate the Palestinians and they will tell this to every one without being asked. But they hate the Gipsy's too (Sinti and Roma) and the Shiites from Iraq who have build a huge mosque near Petra.
Amman tries to copy Tel Aviv as a "white city" and they are obsessed with "green" (with plants). The whole country tries to become "green". Only the camps are Grey and ugly.
| 239 |
Erik The Red Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:53:32pm |
Hey Lizards, if you are a i phone owner there is a new software update 3.1
| 240 |
SixDegrees Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:53:38pm |
re: #235 jpkoch
I'm afraid they are hiring again -in places like Hong Kong, Bombay, and Saigon.
You're correct that the recovery in the US promises to be slow and weak, thanks to the housing market's decline.
Most of Asia has escaped actual recession, but they have suffered a severe drop in growth that has China, especially, worried. Their burgeoning middle class has drained the countryside and packed urban centers whose infrastructure is woefully overstressed, and the lowered growth rates are slicing into funds targeted at improving these problems. The result is a lot of disgruntled citizens whose quality of life, only recently suddenly improved, has declined measurably of late.
| 241 |
Dianna Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:56:29pm |
re: #188 swamprat
Yes you are correct about foreclosures.
Many people paid inflated prices to buy before the prices went even further skyward. Others were part of the greedfest orgy. Homes from both groups will have a high foreclosure rate. But the downturn from trepidation over whether to soak in ones' own urine because (gasp!) the president is not a pro-business kind of guy, or whether to actually go ahead and get on with life... well, that bit of nonsense is over.We still have other hurdles. We can continue being Americans, or we can wait for some hero to leap to the rescue.
Myself, I am not real big on blaming others for my problems, and I'm even less inclined to wait for heroes. I will make the best of whatever situation I find myself in, as will America.
It gets worse than the "greedfest." Some really naive people got the idea that they could take money "out of their home" to settle their debts.
Now, they have no way to climb back out, and the houses are being foreclosed. It's really painful to watch.
| 242 |
Thor-Zone Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:56:36pm |
re: #71 itellu3times
When you fall off a cliff, and hit bottom, things have firmed.
It will be a very long time to get us back to where we were in late 2007 or mid 2008. I will be in a wheelchair by then.
| 243 |
experiencedtraveller Wed, Sep 9, 2009 12:59:46pm |
re: #237 UFO TOFU
Good luck with the California State Board of Equalization. The very name of that department makes me ill.
| 244 |
Thor-Zone Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:00:06pm |
re: #145 pat
The most important lesson we have learned from this recession is that it was government caused.
Very astute! It was the overleveraging of Fannie and Freddie, and the federal pressure put on banks to make other loans that would never be paid back. It was only a matter of time before it all came apart.
I couldn't agree with you more!
| 245 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:05:03pm |
re: #224 jcm
The MacBook Pros are pretty rugged, mine get beat up pretty good. With the aluminum chassis and shell they solid.
Sorry, they are not rugged at all.
I own an Itronix GoBook and a not so old GETAC and theses are fully rugged ones. The first even came with a special grounding/shielding so its allowed to be used in a coal mine or power plant and things like that, so that it could not cause explosions via electric sparks, even if you connect or disconnect plugs. and stuff like this.
They look ugly, they are heavy and they cost a lot, but if you need them there is nothing else on the market...and they are really made to last.
And the ones I own look after all the time like someone tried more than once to go over them with a car or worse. Well from the outside - their guts are still fine and in like new condition but not up to date.
Usually I was done with working abroad for years, but the economy crisis...we can not afford a younger employee for this and if it need to be done in a proper way - I have to go by my own.
Oh happy day!
| 246 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:06:28pm |
re: #238 zuckerlilly
Not Jordan is becoming more "Islamic" only the camps. The Bedouins hate the Palestinians and they will tell this to every one without being asked. But they hate the Gipsy's too (Sinti and Roma) and the Shiites from Iraq who have build a huge mosque near Petra.
Amman tries to copy Tel Aviv as a "white city" and they are obsessed with "green" (with plants). The whole country tries to become "green". Only the camps are Grey and ugly.
Thanks for the correction. I love Tel-Aviv because I'm a big fan of Bauhaus and when I tell people about it having the largest amount of buidings in that style their rather amazed. I guess some who have never been to Israel imagine they ride camels on Dizengoof street.
| 247 |
gregb Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:06:40pm |
re: #145 pat
The most important lesson we have learned from this recession is that it was government caused. First the government encouraged poor banking practices and then it allowed trading in phantom assets with no regulation. Lastly it rewarded those traders and their "insurers" with bailouts.
I love Doug McIntyre's view on 790 KABC radio; the government has been pumping steroids into the economy for years.
[Link: transcripts.cnn.com...]
MCINTYRE: I think that we've been sold a style of debate that's not about substance. It's about the tabloid kind of gotcha kind of zingers one-liners and that's unfortunate. And in terms of the economy, I don't know what to say about the economy, Lou. First of all, I'm not good at it, that's why I get up at 3:00 in the morning to go to work and I work in radio but to me, while we're investigating baseball players for steroids, I think we've got a steroid economy. That's what I think we're doing. We're just throwing cheap credit at it and hoping to push this consumer spending past the election, and then eventually, interest rates have to go up so that the dollar doesn't plunge. I just think this is a whole rigged economy.
| 248 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:07:42pm |
re: #244 Thor-Zone
Very astute! It was the overleveraging of Fannie and Freddie, and the federal pressure put on banks to make other loans that would never be paid back. It was only a matter of time before it all came apart.
I couldn't agree with you more!
and I'll double on that !
| 249 |
sagehen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:13:19pm |
re: #186 UFO TOFU
Maybe it's not Republican so much as Californian.
Oh, sure, 'cause red states like Louisiana or South Carolina or Idaho never elect people like that.
At least when a New York or New Jersey pol gets caught doing such things, they're embarrassed enough to resign.
| 250 |
jayzee Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:16:01pm |
Was only a matter of time. Truth is Bush's TARP money and Obama's continuation of TARP helped prevent a full meltdown. Now if only there was a way for the gov NOT to spend the money they haven't yet in the "shovel ready" stimulus bill...
Something to consider however, is that Roubini has expressed concern that the expiration of Bush's tax cuts may push the economy back down.
| 251 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:22:07pm |
re: #246 Earth56
Thanks for the correction. I love Tel-Aviv because I'm a big fan of Bauhaus and when I tell people about it having the largest amount of building's in that style their rather amazed. I guess some who have never been to Israel imagine they ride camels on Dizengoof street.
Sorry to say, but a lot of the Bauhaus buildings are in bad condition. There has to be done a lot of work to renovate them.
Didn't see a single camel at Dizengoff but many motorcycles ;-) TA is a very expensive city so many people have no other choice as to live in hostels and to sleep there in dormitories in their own country. And you will see young and elderly people sleeping at the sidewalks or between houses. I suppose the youngsters have drug problems.
I've heard that there are tensions between Arabs and Jews in Yafo because Jews buy their houses and renovate them.
| 254 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:25:20pm |
re: #253 zuckerlilly
My mother and sister live in North Tel-Aviv. My sister is on the tip end of Duizengoff Street. I hope your enjoying your stay !
| 256 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:28:09pm |
re: #254 Earth56
My mother and sister live in North Tel-Aviv. My sister is on the tip end of Duizengoff Street. I hope your enjoying your stay !
Thank you very much, I will. I'll return to Austria sometimes in October.
| 257 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:30:34pm |
re: #256 zuckerlilly
It sounds like this is not your first time there. I met many Austrians and Germans near the Dead Sea at a kibbutznear Ein-Gedi that are experts at mountain climbing. Beautiful area, especially at sunrise and sunset ( sounds like a song I heard )
| 258 |
Lee Coller Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:30:56pm |
I wonder how many are hoping the economy tanks for the next four years simply because Obama is in office.
On second thought, I don't want to know.
| 259 |
voirdire Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:31:29pm |
Great news! Let's reinstate those COLA increases for social security!
| 260 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:31:59pm |
re: #258 Lee Coller
If someone does than they are suicidal and I voted for McCain
| 261 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:32:42pm |
re: #259 voirdire
Great news! Let's reinstate those COLA increases for social security!
Do the have a Pepsi version ?
| 262 |
Wendya Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:32:42pm |
re: #258 Lee Coller
I wonder how many are hoping the economy tanks for the next four years simply because Obama is in office.
On second thought, I don't want to know.
Uh-huh... because a tanked economy is just sooo good for my business. /
| 263 |
Earth56 Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:40:11pm |
Take care zucker and enjoy your stay !
have to run
| 264 |
Joshua Cohen Wed, Sep 9, 2009 1:49:00pm |
re: #251 zuckerlilly
And you will see young and elderly people sleeping at the sidewalks or between houses. I suppose the youngsters have drug problems.
Well...mostly runaway kids (teens) from across the country. Some do drugs other not so much (besides booze), most stay just a week or maybe two, spending their money on partying...than they just go back home.
Often before joining army or things like that or after a big fight with their more or less strict parents.
But yes there are also some very poor elderly people, esp. from the former soviet-countries, who never really arrived here.
It's a shame...it would be better to spend more money for them, then for fighting the Arabs.
But if we stop fighting we all will get killed.
| 266 |
UFO TOFU Wed, Sep 9, 2009 2:01:30pm |
re: #243 experiencedtraveller
Good luck with the California State Board of Equalization. The very name of that department makes me ill.
Good news for California business! Just got off the phone with BOE. I told him that I didn't buy anything tax-free because I don't have a seller's permit. He said not to worry, soon we will need tp purchase a Consumer's Permit.
Personally, I'm thinking maybe New Mexico would be nice.
| 269 |
zuckerlilly Wed, Sep 9, 2009 2:13:19pm |
re: #258 Lee Coller
No, but many European economic experts foretold that the economy will improve in the second half of the year 2009 but will decline again late next year again.
I'm not sure if they are right or not.
| 270 |
Dad O' Blondes Wed, Sep 9, 2009 3:00:45pm |
Well, I'm gald this hideous recession is over, but this news report sure sounds a tad pessimistic:
"Barr said that "even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures" as administration and industry efforts continue to stabilize a crisis-stricken housing sector..."
[Link: finance.yahoo.com...]
Millions of foreclosures ??
So now that the recession is over, what's next? The depression?
.
| 271 |
captdiggs Wed, Sep 9, 2009 3:28:55pm |
Recessions always end, at least they always have, historically.
A hitch to this one is that the "stimulus" and related bailouts have pushed the US into record debt levels and unprecedented money supply levels. To finance this debt interest rates have to go up in order to entice buyers of that debt. That means rising interest rates somewhere down the line. The money supply, unless they can thread the needle of reigning it in, will mean inflation.
What many economists are warning of is that rising interest rates, and possible (and necessary) tax increases to both finance the debt and pay it off, will stifle the recovery in a longer term.
That's the ongoing debate between economists. Does the government buy it's way out of a recession with "stimulus"...and does that work in the long term, or do you stimulate business and entrepreneurship by providing tax incentives to expand and hire.
One was Reagan's way...the other is Obama's, and we will all find out, eventually.
| 272 |
jcbunga Wed, Sep 9, 2009 3:38:30pm |
Good, then there's no need to spend the rest of the trillions in the crapulous bill. Issue a great big "nevermind", return GM to the private sector and go away.
In fact, I give The One license to use this for his speech.
He won't even need his prompters.
| 273 |
Odahi Wed, Sep 9, 2009 4:20:12pm |
"Recovery?" I'll be convinced that there's a recovery coming when the Dow hits 10,000 again- only 30% below the high we saw.
| 274 |
EE Wed, Sep 9, 2009 5:21:57pm |
The recession is over, the government's economists say. But the stimulus money hasn't even started to be spent. Only about 10% has been spent. That means that the stimulus is going to be out of phase with what it is supposed to be doing, and Pelosi, Reid, and Obama have created an UNSTABLE SYSTEM. Because of this phase error, they have created positive feedback, instead of negative feedback. How are they going to damp down the economy when inflation starts to run away? With huge interest rates? Which will kick in after the inflation stage has ended? They are turning the economy into an unstable disaster, which will have larger and larger swings, just as Marx had predicted, as a preface to revolution.
| 275 |
William Wed, Sep 9, 2009 6:55:58pm |
Unemployment is at record highs, residential mortgage defaults are at record highs, our manufacturing base lays in ruin, our best technology jobs are shipped to India en masse, consumer credit defaults are skyrocketing, and the prosperity created over the last few years was an illusion, the result of people buying and selling homes to each other rather than rising income.
Additionally, the toxic mortgages signed over the last few years will reset in the coming months and years, and refinancing is not an option for millions as the houses are (rightfully) worth less than their bubble-era mortgages. There will be yet further bank failures, as the banks cannot continue hiding the toxic waste mortgage-backed assets on their books forever.
People are living check to check, 30 days away from insolvency.
Further, not a single politician has the courage to address any of these concerns, and are simply "hoping for the best" while the fundamentals laid out above indicate hope is not a viable option.
We remain in a world of trouble, and are nowhere near a recovery.
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