Breaking: CRU’s Phil Jones Steps Aside

Charles Johnsonfollow me on twitter
Environment • Tue Dec 1, 2009 at 2:01 pm PST • Views: 708

Released a little while ago at the website of the University of East Anglia: CRU Update 1 December - University of East Anglia (UEA).

Professor Phil Jones has today announced that he will stand aside as Director of the Climatic Research Unit until the completion of an independent Review resulting from allegations following the hacking and publication of emails from the Unit.

Professor Jones said: “What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible.  After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director’s role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this.  The Review process will have my full  support.”  

Vice-Chancellor Professor Edward Acton said: “I have accepted Professor Jones’s offer to stand aside during this period. It is an important step to ensure that CRU can continue to operate normally and the independent review can conduct its work into the allegations.

“We will announce details of the Independent Review, including its terms of reference, timescale and the chair, within days. I am delighted that Professor Peter Liss, FRS, CBE, will become acting director.”

No surprises here. The politics of this issue have become so heated this was inevitable; but notice that this is not a resignation.

More important are these statements from the CRU, refuting the completely bogus story that they “destroyed data:”

The University of East Anglia has previously released the following press release and statements from Prof Trevor Davies, Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research, Prof Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit, and from CRU.

CRU climate data already ‘over 95%’ available

Over 95% of the CRU climate data set concerning land surface temperatures has been accessible to climate researchers, sceptics and the public for several years the University of East Anglia has confirmed.

“It is well known within the scientific community and particularly those who are sceptical of climate change that over 95% of the raw station data has been accessible through the Global Historical Climatology Network for several years. We are quite clearly not hiding information which seems to be the speculation on some blogs and by some media commentators,” commented the University’s Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Research Enterprise and Engagement Professor Trevor Davies.

The University will make all the data accessible as soon as they are released from a range of non-publication agreements. Publication will be carried out in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

The procedure for releasing these data, which are mainly owned by National Meteorological Services (NMSs) around the globe, is by direct contact between the permanent representatives of NMSs (in the UK the Met Office).

“We are grateful for the necessary support of the Met Office in requesting the permissions for releasing the information but understand that responses may take several months and that some countries may refuse permission due to the economic value of the data,” continued Professor Davies.

The remaining data, to be published when permissions are given, generally cover areas of the world where there are fewer data collection stations.

“CRU’s full data will be published in the interests of research transparency when we have the necessary agreements. It is worth reiterating that our conclusions correlate well to those of other scientists based on the separate data sets held by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS),” concluded Professor Davies.

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1 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:06:09pm

"Over 95% of the CRU climate data set concerning land surface temperatures has been accessible to climate researchers, sceptics and the public for several years the University of East Anglia has confirmed."

I just gotta wonder about the other 5%...

2 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:07:02pm

re: #1 brookly red

I just gotta wonder about the other 5%...

Look for it at NOAA or other sites or sources.

3 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:07:46pm

Every cause needs martyrs.

4 Spare O'Lake  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:09:54pm

Looks like CRU has a bus too.

5 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:11:16pm

re: #2 freetoken

Look for it at NOAA or other sites or sources.

I don't think I would understand it... but I do understand that 95% is not 100%. So, why was 5% witheld?

6 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:11:51pm

re: #5 brookly red

LGF had an article on this yesterday.

7 acacia  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:12:32pm

I like how "skeptics" are in a different category than "climate researchers" or even the "public." It seems like the politics of this goes both ways.

8 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:14:32pm

re: #4 Spare O'Lake

Looks like CRU has a bus too.

No body has been thrown under any bus. While I do have issues with some of the "politics" that have evidently been going on at the CRU, I see this stepping aside as a reasonable move until things can be cleared up.

9 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:15:10pm

I wonder how long this investi8gation will take?

10 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:16:05pm

re: #6 freetoken

LGF had an article on this yesterday.

withhold 5% of your declared income & see what happens...

11 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:16:29pm

re: #8 Walter L. Newton

Seems reasonable enough to me as well. This is the kind of thing a professional would do.

12 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:17:09pm

re: #9 rightwingconspirator

I wonder how long this investi8gation will take?

You spelled investig8ion wrong. :)

13 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:20:22pm
14 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:23:35pm

David Frum wants me to come back:

[Link: www.frumforum.com...]

15 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:23:46pm

re: #12 bosforus

Pimf, my bad

16 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:24:49pm

And the comments for Frum's post are full of hatred, of course.

17 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:25:10pm

re: #3 Cato the Elder

Every cause needs martyrs.

Is it a climate jihad?

18 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:26:16pm

re: #14 Charles

David Frum wants me to come back:

[Link: www.frumforum.com...]

Oh for heaven's sake. Any post that quotes Kipling's worst poem (and they are legion) gets no further reading from me.

19 floppydusk  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:26:37pm

Dollars to donuts that his stepping aside will become permanent, Mann will be next.

20 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:27:25pm

Speaking of comments full of hatred, is anyone surprised that Malkin's article on Clemmons is amply flavored with racial overtones? E.g.:

On December 1st, 2009 at 4:23 pm, Dan Lee said:
The sad thing about this is that there are in fact some wonderful black folks out there, & now this sh*tbag, & the “nation of islam” websites have helped to set back relations between blacks & whites another ten years.

I have some black friends who are wonderful human beings, but they are all Christians.. And I mean real Christians, (Not of the Jeremiah Wright ilk)..

It’s unfortunate for them that people who represent their heritage are smearing it in the mud, & defacing it with their hatred & vitriol.

I bet he even lets his (Christian) black friends use his bathroom.

21 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:32:28pm

re: #17 Lightspeed

Is it a climate jihad?

It will be, if we don't watch the hysterics very carefully.

22 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:34:30pm

re: #17 Lightspeed

Is it a climate jihad?

skeptic, infidel, disbeliever, denier, whatever...

23 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:35:54pm

re: #14 Charles

David Frum wants me to come back:

[Link: www.frumforum.com...]

The right left you, if they come back, that's a different story. Those speaking out may help right that ship.

24 MrSilverDragon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:37:31pm

I blame the cows. Y'all have a good night.

25 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:37:32pm

re: #23 avanti

The right left you, if they come back, that's a different story. Those speaking out may help right that ship.

hmmm, you may be on to something...

26 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:39:34pm

re: #1 brookly red

"Over 95% of the CRU climate data set concerning land surface temperatures has been accessible to climate researchers, sceptics and the public for several years the University of East Anglia has confirmed."

I just gotta wonder about the other 5%...

There seem to be two different stories circulating. One, noted above, is that a portion of the data was obtained from sources which have not given permission to distribute it, so it is being withheld from distribution until an agreement is reached with the data's owners. Another, also attributed to the CRU a couple of days ago, is that some of the data was rejected from inclusion in their dataset due to problems with the sensors involved - balky performance, urban development in the vicinity, or a relocation to different altitude.

Both are reasonable explanations, although in the latter case it's unusual to simply discard the data. The more normal procedure is to exclude it from further processing, but to hang onto it, making note the reasons for it's exclusion.

In any case, the chronology seems to be:

- CRU compiled a large dataset from a variety of sources, some public, some private, from a variety of existing data collections spanning the last 150 years and much of the globe. Some of the collection stations were rejected at this stage for quality reasons, as noted above. This was the initial raw dataset.

- The initial raw dataset was further filtered and processed in a variety of ways, presumably in an attempt to normalize the data with respect to differing collection equipment, artificial environmental effects (proximity to a large city, for example) and for other reasons. The end result of this filtering was the HadCRUT3 dataset, which was used as the input to the research in question and has been the basis for much secondary research on climate.

- The initial raw dataset was destroyed.

- The HadCRUT3 dataset exists and has always been obtainable.

The destruction of the initial raw dataset is what's at issue, and the question is whether or not it can be reproduced by researchers attempting to replicate CRU's data. Some portion of it, according to the story here, is currently not available. The remainder, which comprises the bulk of the data, is in the public domain and is available through NOAA, but CRU has not provided a list of the exact collections it used in it's data assembly process, making an attempted reconstruction problematic; although the data is there, it isn't known which data out of the hundreds of millions of collections and samples were used by CRU.

The promise to publish it's raw data at some point in the future is heartening, and ought to put most of the doubts about CRU's conclusions to rest. At this point, it would probably be prudent for CRU to at least release the key to the NOAA collections is selected from and which subsets of those collections were used, while simply noting the regions covered by the proprietary data until permission for it's release is obtained, simply so that it can be shown that HadCRUT3 can, indeed, be reproduced. The lack of transparency, in an occupation that demands it to ensure it's own validity, is not helping.

27 Jeff In Ohio  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:40:52pm
28 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:41:12pm

I haven't visited the PJM site for several days (they are no longer in my bookmarks)... but I just checked them and wow, they've gone full hog over "climategate".

RSimon's hatred of Al Gore has really pushed them over the edge. No wonder they now share as writers several who are linked to by VDARE. PJM continues its devolution into the nutti-o-sphere.

I used to post on occasion over there, up till about 6 months ago. It became clear that when PJM made Clayton Cramer (friend of VDARE) and Frank Tipler (dear friend of the ID crowd) the lead writers on AGW that PJM had gone into hopelessness.

29 cliffster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:41:19pm

I hear that dog-ownership is one of the bigger carbon footprints. Screw that.. my two dogs stay and eat heartily.

30 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:41:23pm

re: #21 Cato the Elder

The fervor and fanaticism on both sides of the issue suggests we are already there. The climate debate is now almost entirely a political one. Many billions of dollars are at stake and things are only going to get uglier.

31 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:42:37pm

re: #29 cliffster

I hear that dog-ownership is one of the bigger carbon footprints. Screw that.. my two dogs stay and eat heartily.

My one dog stays, too. And should the seas boil because of him.

32 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:43:23pm

re: #30 Lightspeed

The climate debate is now almost entirely a political one. Many billions of dollars are at stake and things are only going to get uglier.

May I suggest that "billions of dollars" and "political" go together like, say, peanut butter and jelly?

33 Look At My New Grandbaby!  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:43:42pm

re: #29 cliffster

I hear that dog-ownership is one of the bigger carbon footprints. Screw that.. my two dogs stay and eat heartily.

The cops confiscated my neighbor's pit bulls. And their mangy little hairball, too!

Heh.

34 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:43:50pm

Seems as if the people being looked at in this "nontroversy" is spreading
[Link: www.usnews.com...]

One Penn State professor is involved The Penn State administration plans to investigate Climategate and determine if it needs to take further action

35 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:44:01pm

re: #14 Charles

Well. He did quote Kipling.

36 cliffster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:44:06pm

re: #32 freetoken

May I suggest that "billions of dollars" and "political" go together like, say, peanut butter and jelly?

Like Hans and Franz.

37 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:44:25pm

re: #26 SixDegrees

Re: "The lack of transparency, in an occupation that demands it to ensure it's own validity, is not helping."

yup.

38 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:44:36pm

re: #32 freetoken

May I suggest that "billions of dollars" and "political" go together like, say, peanut butter and jelly?

I prefer rama-lama-ding-dong or boogidy-boogidy-boogidy-boogidy-boogidy-boogidy-shoo.

39 cliffster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:44:59pm

re: #33 Alouette

Haha, I was wondering how that saga ended.

40 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:45:04pm

re: #35 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Well. He did quote Kipling.

Specifically, the execrable poem "If" - one of the worst things ever written in the English language. Reason enough to ignore him.

41 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:45:12pm

If BHO is serious about carbon footprints and all, why isn't he giving his speech tonight in D.C.?

42 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:46:25pm

re: #28 freetoken

I haven't visited the PJM site for several days (they are no longer in my bookmarks)... but I just checked them and wow, they've gone full hog over "climategate".

RSimon's hatred of Al Gore has really pushed them over the edge. No wonder they now share as writers several who are linked to by VDARE. PJM continues its devolution into the nutti-o-sphere.

I used to post on occasion over there, up till about 6 months ago. It became clear that when PJM made Clayton Cramer (friend of VDARE) and Frank Tipler (dear friend of the ID crowd) the lead writers on AGW that PJM had gone into hopelessness.

Although I loath PJM these days, I will note that hating on Al Gore is something AGW supporters can easily get behind. His gross distortions and overblown rhetoric are often cited as examples of massive overstatement and panic mongering, often with good reason. There was a rather scathing dismantling of his movie from a scientific viewpoint, comparing it's statements with those made in peer-reviewed journals on the topic on a website somewhere that found nothing complimentary to say. He's an example of someone who's done far more harm than good on this topic by animating opposition and by feeding the opposition fuel for it's criticisms.

43 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:46:46pm
Come on back LGF – it’s when your team is doing worst that you are needed most.

That seems to be an admission of suckage.

44 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:47:06pm

re: #26 SixDegrees

Please note that the CRU's analysis of the data is just one of MANY analyses of MANY datasets. The idea that the entire theory of global warming is disproved because the CRU discarded 5% of the raw data used for this one analysis is so completely ludicrous it boggles the mind that people are actually trying to claim that.

45 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:47:50pm

re: #41 MandyManners

BHO is serious about YOUR carbon footprint.

46 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:47:57pm

re: #40 Cato the Elder

Specifically, the execrable poem "If" - one of the worst things ever written in the English language. Reason enough to ignore him.

One of my coworkers nominates Emerson's "Rhodora" for "Worst Poem In English". But I don't think he's read the love poem for the Hamasnik that went around a couple of years ago.

In May, when sea-winds pierced our solitudes,
I found the fresh Rhodora in the woods,
Spreading its leafless blooms in a damp nook,
To please the desert and the sluggish brook.
The purple petals fallen in the pool
Made the black water with their beauty gay;
Here might the red-bird come his plumes to cool,
And court the flower that cheapens his array.
Rhodora! if the sages ask thee why
This charm is wasted on the earth and sky,
Tell them, dear, that, if eyes were made for seeing,
Then beauty is its own excuse for Being;
Why thou wert there, O rival of the rose!
I never thought to ask; I never knew;
But in my simple ignorance suppose
The self-same power that brought me there, brought you
.

47 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:48:14pm

re: #41 MandyManners

If BHO is serious about carbon footprints and all, why isn't he giving his speech tonight in D.C.?

Simple, simple Mandy. The messenger has to break the rules (they do it begrudgingly, of course).

48 osprey34229  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:48:18pm

Would you buy a used car from the folks at East Anglia
with part of the car fax missing?

49 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:48:54pm

re: #46 SanFranciscoZionist

Evangeline.

Gosh! I hated that poem.

(but, has a kick ass first line)

50 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:48:54pm

re: #32 freetoken

Indeed. And it will make people want to lie and cheat to promote their agenda...on both sides.

51 cliffster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:49:02pm

re: #41 MandyManners

If BHO is serious about carbon footprints and all, why isn't he giving his speech tonight in D.C.?

I think large-scale adoption of webex, netmeeting, whatever, by politicians would be a great statement. We in Corporate America have done it.

52 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:49:13pm

re: #48 osprey34229

Would you buy a used car from the folks at East Anglia
with part of the car fax missing?

Depends. How much is it going to cost to ship from East Anglia?

53 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:49:27pm

re: #50 Lightspeed

Prove it. Show one example in which climate scientists have lied or cheated. I'll wait.

54 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:49:30pm

re: #45 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

BHO is serious about YOUR carbon footprint.

Well, his footprint is my footprint since he's using my dime.

55 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:49:45pm

re: #41 MandyManners

Please Mandy, the CiC is giving a major speech on a critical military strategy, and he chose to do it at the academy of the very people he will send into battle.

The sending of 30,000 troops halfway around the world will be a far larger carbon footprint than AF One going to NY.

56 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:01pm

re: #47 bosforus

Simple, simple Mandy. The messenger has to break the rules (they do it begrudgingly, of course).

Easy to begrudge when one is spending others' money.

57 obdicut  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:17pm

re: #37 brookly red

Why, then, are the people castigating CRU not celebrating the places that have total transparency?

There are open-source climate models with all data available. They, too, show AGW as real.

Why are the people who are attacking CRU not using CCSM as an example of what should be done?

CCSM

58 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:30pm

re: #55 freetoken

Please Mandy, the CiC is giving a major speech on a critical military strategy, and he chose to do it at the academy of the very people he will send into battle.

The sending of 30,000 troops halfway around the world will be a far larger carbon footprint than AF One going to NY.

Gee. Bush was able to do the same thing from the Oval Office.

59 Jeff In Ohio  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:37pm

re: #48 osprey34229

No, I'd pay for the car fax myself and do a personal inspection of the vehicle. Then I'd compare my inspection with the knowledge I have of that model and the ways in which it's possible to pass off a vehicle that has been damaged in an accident or flood.

Mostly because that's what I did for a year...by used vehicles. Knowledge is power, you ought to try it..

60 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:43pm

re: #41 MandyManners

If BHO is serious about carbon footprints and all, why isn't he giving his speech tonight in D.C.?

/infidel!

61 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:47pm

re: #49 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Evangeline.

Gosh! I hated that poem.

(but, has a kick ass first line)

This is the forest primeval.

62 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:50:48pm

re: #26 SixDegrees

There seem to be two different stories circulating. One, noted above, is that a portion of the data was obtained from sources which have not given permission to distribute it, so it is being withheld from distribution until an agreement is reached with the data's owners. Another, also attributed to the CRU a couple of days ago, is that some of the data was rejected from inclusion in their dataset due to problems with the sensors involved - balky performance, urban development in the vicinity, or a relocation to different altitude.

Both are reasonable explanations, although in the latter case it's unusual to simply discard the data. The more normal procedure is to exclude it from further processing, but to hang onto it, making note the reasons for it's exclusion.

In any case, the chronology seems to be:

- CRU compiled a large dataset from a variety of sources, some public, some private, from a variety of existing data collections spanning the last 150 years and much of the globe. Some of the collection stations were rejected at this stage for quality reasons, as noted above. This was the initial raw dataset.

- The initial raw dataset was further filtered and processed in a variety of ways, presumably in an attempt to normalize the data with respect to differing collection equipment, artificial environmental effects (proximity to a large city, for example) and for other reasons. The end result of this filtering was the HadCRUT3 dataset, which was used as the input to the research in question and has been the basis for much secondary research on climate.

- The initial raw dataset was destroyed.

- The HadCRUT3 dataset exists and has always been obtainable.

The destruction of the initial raw dataset is what's at issue, and the question is whether or not it can be reproduced by researchers attempting to replicate CRU's data. Some portion of it, according to the story here, is currently not available. The remainder, which comprises the bulk of the data, is in the public domain and is available through NOAA, but CRU has not provided a list of the exact collections it used in it's data assembly process, making an attempted reconstruction problematic; although the data is there, it isn't known which data out of the hundreds of millions of collections and samples were used by CRU.

The promise to publish it's raw data at some point in the future is heartening, and ought to put most of the doubts about CRU's conclusions to rest. At this point, it would probably be prudent for CRU to at least release the key to the NOAA collections is selected from and which subsets of those collections were used, while simply noting the regions covered by the proprietary data until permission for it's release is obtained, simply so that it can be shown that HadCRUT3 can, indeed, be reproduced. The lack of transparency, in an occupation that demands it to ensure it's own validity, is not helping.

That's what I have been talking about for the last 12 hours or so since I started on this yesterday.

You nailed it. The original relationships to the reporting agency and the location used for that year and month is gone.

But, from the way I am reading it, they would have to start from scratch to recreate the dataset with all the information linking temperature reading record to agency supplying data to the actual location of that reading.

And since each 5 degree by 5 degree grid of the planet that contains each temperature read record is about the land mass size of Nevada, the location is extremely important. A reading taking in one part of the grid could certainly not agree with a reading taken in some other location in the grid.

And you statement "The lack of transparency, in an occupation that demands it to ensure it's own validity, is not helping" is the bottom line to the problem. It seems to me, for scientist, they have not been cooperative with the data, there fore muddying the scientific method.

63 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:51:17pm
It’s also the home of Milton Friedman and James Q. Wilson, Charles Murray and George Borjas, Richard Pipes and Robert Conquest, Tom Wolfe and Philip Larkin, Friedrich Hayek and George Stigler, Leszek Kolakowski and John Lukacs, Bernard Lewis and Fouad Ajami.

Who?!?!?! The ones getting the press are the bad actors, dammit. That's the point!

64 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:51:28pm

re: #32 freetoken

May I suggest that "billions of dollars" and "political" go together like, say, peanut butter and jelly?

I thought I kept hearing that money is not an issue?

65 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:51:46pm

re: #58 MandyManners

Gee. Bush was able to do the same thing from the Oval Office.

Sometimes, and sometimes he went on site.

The Bush Doctrine was delivered, if I remember correctly, at the Naval Academy.

66 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:52:08pm

re: #58 MandyManners

Gee. Bush was able to do the same thing from the Oval Office.

I seem to remember that Bush sometimes went places to speak.

67 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:52:11pm

re: #58 MandyManners

C'mon Mandy. They all gad about.

68 Kragar  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:52:12pm

re: #40 Cato the Elder

Specifically, the execrable poem "If" - one of the worst things ever written in the English language. Reason enough to ignore him.

Are you perhaps familiar with "Pointy birds"?

69 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:52:30pm

re: #41 MandyManners

If BHO is serious about carbon footprints and all, why isn't he giving his speech tonight in D.C.?

Since it's the troops he's sending into war, addressing the build up at West Point seems reasonable. His carbon footprint will be tiny compared to the logistics of the build up.

70 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:52:35pm

re: #65 freetoken

Sometimes, and sometimes he went on site.

The Bush Doctrine was delivered, if I remember correctly, at the Naval Academy.

Link?

71 John Neverbend  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:52:56pm

re: #61 SanFranciscoZionist

This is the forest primeval.

..The murmuring pines and the hemlocks,

Dactylic hexameter and English don't really go together.

72 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:53:15pm

re: #41 MandyManners

If BHO is serious about carbon footprints and all, why isn't he giving his speech tonight in D.C.?

Timmy The Teleprompter was already scheduled to be at West Point this evening!
//

73 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:53:32pm

re: #65 freetoken

Sometimes, and sometimes he went on site.

The Bush Doctrine was delivered, if I remember correctly, at the Naval Academy.

And immediately, my mind goes to Sarah Palin.

I gotta figure out some way to detach her from the Bush Doctrine in my head.

74 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:53:36pm

re: #61 SanFranciscoZionist

Kick ass first line.

75 webevintage  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:53:43pm

re: #33 Alouette

The cops confiscated my neighbor's pit bulls. And their mangy little hairball, too!

Heh.

Good.
I love dogs, but once they are violent there is no place for them in a neighborhood.
The owners have proven themselves negligent and have no business with pets that need responsible and diligent owners...and well built fences.

76 Look At My New Grandbaby!  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:53:52pm

re: #40 Cato the Elder

Specifically, the execrable poem "If" - one of the worst things ever written in the English language. Reason enough to ignore him.

I don't know. Some of the emo crap that I wrote in high school belongs in that category.

77 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:54:20pm

re: #57 obdicut

Why, then, are the people castigating CRU not celebrating the places that have total transparency?

There are open-source climate models with all data available. They, too, show AGW as real.

Why are the people who are attacking CRU not using CCSM as an example of what should be done?

CCSM

I just asked where the other 5% went... it seems like a reasonable question.

78 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:54:24pm

I take it we all agree that AGW exists.

The question, then, becomes what to do about it.

How does this strike you?

Everyone on earth gets a fixed annual "carbon budget". For the purposes of reducing carbon emissions, it is equal for all people. It will be set much lower than the current average usage in developed countries, but much higher than that of the rest of the world.

Those countries whose average per-capita carbon output exceeds the allowed budget pay money to those countries who come in under target. The amount has not been set, but for it to "work" it would have to be punitive. I guess.

What I really can't figure out is how this is supposed to fix the problem. But it's one of the proposals to be discussed at København, in between sessions of binge-drinking akvavit and toying with Danish callgirls and -boys. I know this because I translated a seekrit document from a European agency a few months ago in which this "budgetary approach" was set forth.

So if anyone here can tell me how this is going to solve global warming, as opposed to serving as a back door for Marxist wealth-redistribution and punitive taxation on a level never even conceived of at any Communist Internationale, please do enlighten me.

79 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:54:43pm

re: #54 MandyManners

Boy, if I wasn't married, and if you were completely desperate...

80 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:55:29pm

re: #71 John Neverbend

..The murmuring pines and the hemlocks,

Dactylic hexameter and English don't really go together.

English will do almost anything if you kick it hard enough, but it does have its limits.

81 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:55:33pm

re: #72 sattv4u2

Well. I had a mouthful of beer. Thanks.

82 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:55:46pm

re: #58 MandyManners

Gee. Bush was able to do the same thing from the Oval Office.

Was he not flown on the a carrier for a photo opt to proclaim "Mission Accomplished" ? POTUS's fly around addressing folks all the time, it's part of the job.

83 Christopher Luebcke  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:55:53pm

re: #77 brookly red

A reasonable question that has been answered. Even in this very thread.

84 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:56:19pm

re: #81 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Well. I had a mouthful of beer. Thanks.

Serves ya right, drinking beer while I have a keyboard and a wit!

85 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:56:21pm

re: #33 Alouette

The cops confiscated my neighbor's pit bulls. And their mangy little hairball, too!

Heh.

Now you're Margaret Hamilton?

86 Look At My New Grandbaby!  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:57:06pm

re: #75 webevintage

Good.
I love dogs, but once they are violent there is no place for them in a neighborhood.
The owners have proven themselves negligent and have no business with pets that need responsible and diligent owners...and well built fences.

Now, if the neighbor who was attacked swears out a complaint, those dogs could be put down, and the little "Michael Vick" breeding op will go out of business.

Maybe their house will get foreclosed and they'll have to move.

87 Look At My New Grandbaby!  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:57:45pm

re: #85 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

Now you're Margaret Hamilton?

No, that's Zedushka.

88 Kragar  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:57:59pm

re: #80 SanFranciscoZionist

English will do almost anything if you kick it hard enough, but it does have its limits.

Marine English can convey any concept to any other language, using the slow and loud repetition of words, expressive hand gestures, and automatic weapons.

89 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:58:00pm

re: #44 Charles

Please note that the CRU's analysis of the data is just one of MANY analyses of MANY datasets. The idea that the entire theory of global warming is disproved because the CRU discarded 5% of the raw data used for this one analysis is so completely ludicrous it boggles the mind that people are actually trying to claim that.

I'm aware that there are other, similar collections and studies. But it's the CRU that's currently causing all the commotion.

And as I noted, the 5% of the data that was rejected, for whatever reason, isn't the issue here, at least not for me. Science runs on the premise of reproducible results, and at the moment it is not possible to duplicate the HadCRUT3 dataset from the raw data it was compiled from because it isn't known which raw data was used. CRU is promising it will rectify this problem in the future, which is good to hear. My suggestion is that they release whatever lists of data they do have available now, in order to show that at least the regions that can be reconstructed match what has been released. If that remaining 5% is being withheld out of proprietary concerns, release will obviously have to wait, but there's no foul in releasing the regions that it covered so their status can be noted.

On a somewhat related note: The Royal Society requires open release of raw data as a condition of publication. It's a long standing policy, but one that hasn't been much enforced over the years, despite the Society making several megabytes per article of space available on it's servers, at no charge. This is a wonderful policy that ought to be rigorously enforced, and that ought to be adopted by other peer review journals.

90 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:58:03pm

re: #53 Charles

Prove it. Show one example in which climate scientists have lied or cheated. I'll wait.

I think the investigations of the CRU will be illuminating. There is no "smoking gun" as yet, but many hints that something is being hidden. The emails show that the CRU was, in some cases at least, trying to avoid releasing information requested under the Freedom of Information Act. They also show that emails on certain subjects were asked to be deleted. That's not fishy to you? It doesn't prove anything, but it is absolutely suspicious.

91 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:58:06pm

re: #83 Christopher Luebcke

A reasonable question that has been answered. Even in this very thread.

yes but I am really stupid & I need it spelled out for me...

92 SanFranciscoZionist  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:58:19pm

re: #70 MandyManners

Link?

Dunno about the Naval Academy, but he was at West Point just last year.

93 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:59:02pm

re: #82 avanti

Was he not flown on the a carrier for a photo opt to proclaim "Mission Accomplished" ? POTUS's fly around addressing folks all the time, it's part of the job.

Bad analogy. Bush wasn't railing against us cutting our carbon footprint!

Yes, ALL Presidents appear in all manner of places for a political backdrop to highlight their speech. But that wasn't the point

94 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:59:16pm

Y'alls don't know nuthin' about no Carbon footprint.

95 ArchangelMichael  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:59:31pm

re: #78 Cato the Elder

Isn't what you are describing "Carbon Credit" trading that has been proposed for years, and is the basis for Cap-and-Trade here?

Like Cap-and-Trade, it wont stop global warming. It's one of those lefty solutions to the problem that are simply their way of using yet another crisis as an opportunity to force their policy wish-list on the world.

96 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 2:59:35pm

The haters are back again at the LGF Calendar page at Lulu.com.

[Link: www.lulu.com...]

97 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:00:19pm

re: #70 MandyManners

Link?

Perhaps it was at West Point. Anyway, I remember Bush giving a speech at one of them on his newly stated policy. Here was his speech to WP 2002 graduation:

[Link: 74.125.95.132...]

98 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:00:26pm

re: #87 Alouette

I just up-dinged that for the hell of it. Don't know what the heck you meant.

99 Gus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:00:36pm

Obama took AF1 to West Point -- what's his carbon footprint?!
Obama used the word "I" 34 times tonight in his West Point speech!
Obama delayed action on Afghanistan for too long!
Obama didn't address the cadets at West Point according to tradition!
Obama wore a red tie to West Point -- commie!

//

100 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:01:42pm

re: #99 Gus 802

Obama took AF1 to West Point -- what's his carbon footprint?!
Obama used the word "I" 34 times tonight in his West Point speech!
Obama delayed action on Afghanistan for too long!
Obama didn't address the cadets at West Point according to tradition!
Obama wore a red tie to West Point -- commie!

//


Numbers 1,2, 4 and 5 were funny

Number, 3, not so much!

101 John Neverbend  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:01:57pm

re: #40 Cato the Elder

Specifically, the execrable poem "If" - one of the worst things ever written in the English language. Reason enough to ignore him.

Vogon poetry is worse, even after translation into English.

Oh freddled gruntbuggly,
Thy micturations are to me,
As plurdled gabbleblotchits on a lurgid bee.
Groop I implore thee, my foonting turlingdromes
And hooptiously drangle me with crinkly bindlewurdles,
Or I will rend thee in the gobberwarts with my blurgle cruncheon,
See if I don't!

102 reine.de.tout  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:02:05pm

re: #96 Charles

The haters are back again at the LGF Calendar page at Lulu.com.

[Link: www.lulu.com...]

Hm. I ordered mine the first day the lulu link was provided but I haven't gotten it yet. Some of those reviews sound like people have gotten theirs already? Is this a plot against ME???

103 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:02:17pm

Again I'll ask anyone who feels like it to go over to Lulu.com and counteract those disgusting comments by posting your own. I reported them as inappropriate but the more people who do it the better.

[Link: www.lulu.com...]

104 Long Nics are Looonnng  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:02:17pm

re: #99 Gus 802

(I'm afraid to admit it. Love to have a beer with the guy.)

I'd bitch him out a bit. But, yeah. I'd like to hang with him for an hour.

I'm gonna crash one of his parties. Looks pretty easy.

105 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:02:19pm

re: #94 bosforus

Y'alls don't know nuthin' about no Carbon footprint.

Hmmm, is there something special I need to do to link a blogspot photo?

106 Gus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:02:26pm

re: #100 sattv4u2

Numbers 1,2, 4 and 5 were funny

Number, 3, not so much!

Roger and gracias.

107 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:02:46pm

re: #57 obdicut

Why, then, are the people castigating CRU not celebrating the places that have total transparency?

For the rather simple reason that they're talking about CRU, and not about some other place.

108 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:03:34pm

re: #89 SixDegrees

I'm aware that there are other, similar collections and studies. But it's the CRU that's currently causing all the commotion.

And as I noted, the 5% of the data that was rejected, for whatever reason, isn't the issue here, at least not for me. Science runs on the premise of reproducible results, and at the moment it is not possible to duplicate the HadCRUT3 dataset from the raw data it was compiled from because it isn't known which raw data was used. CRU is promising it will rectify this problem in the future, which is good to hear. My suggestion is that they release whatever lists of data they do have available now, in order to show that at least the regions that can be reconstructed match what has been released. If that remaining 5% is being withheld out of proprietary concerns, release will obviously have to wait, but there's no foul in releasing the regions that it covered so their status can be noted.

On a somewhat related note: The Royal Society requires open release of raw data as a condition of publication. It's a long standing policy, but one that hasn't been much enforced over the years, despite the Society making several megabytes per article of space available on it's servers, at no charge. This is a wonderful policy that ought to be rigorously enforced, and that ought to be adopted by other peer review journals.

The is also a big dust up going on with FOIA requests and how CRU kept playing games with the requests for data. And most of the back and forth on that issue is available on the internet. And the communications between the requester and the CRU are not part of the hacked emails and documents. If you google CRU and FOIA problems you will find what you need.

109 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:03:42pm

re: #70 MandyManners

Link?

I was there, but here's your

link.

BTW, not a damn thing wrong with that visit either.

110 robdouth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:04:37pm

re: #20 freetoken

I don't know Malkin's stuff that well, but you're comment is misleading. You quoted a commenter to Malkin's article, not the article itself, but you attributed the racial overtones to Malkin's articles. You should be more clear. If her article had those overtones, maybe examples from the articles and not the commenters, which no writer can really control, would be a better example.

111 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:05:17pm

re: #57 obdicut

Why, then, are the people castigating CRU not celebrating the places that have total transparency?


Same reson baseball talk was all about McGuire,Sosa, Bonds and a handful of others instead of the hundreds of ballplayers that do not cheat

112 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:05:19pm

re: #90 Lightspeed

I think the investigations of the CRU will be illuminating. There is no "smoking gun" as yet, but many hints that something is being hidden. The emails show that the CRU was, in some cases at least, trying to avoid releasing information requested under the Freedom of Information Act. They also show that emails on certain subjects were asked to be deleted. That's not fishy to you? It doesn't prove anything, but it is absolutely suspicious.

To date, there is no indication anywhere that CRU has done anything unethical or has cheated their data in any way. The inability to reconstruct their HadCRUT3 dataset is problematic, from the standpoint of reproducibility of results, but that is an entirely different issue than any sort of outright fraud or other malfeasance.

113 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:06:07pm

Well thank you, blogspot, for ruining my joke by completely throwing off my timing. Geesh! Moved it to flickr.
Carbon Footprint

114 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:06:30pm

Comparative carbon footprints.

I wonder what Al Gore pays in carbon offsets.

Which, by the way, I am going to start selling. You pay me and I promise to pass less gas.

115 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:06:32pm

re: #111 sattv4u2

Why, then, are the people castigating CRU not celebrating the places that have total transparency?


Same reson baseball talk was all about McGuire,Sosa, Bonds and a handful of others instead of the hundreds of ballplayers that do not cheat

nice.

116 Gus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:07:17pm

re: #110 robdouth

I don't know Malkin's stuff that well, but you're comment is misleading. You quoted a commenter to Malkin's article, not the article itself, but you attributed the racial overtones to Malkin's articles. You should be more clear. If her article had those overtones, maybe examples from the articles and not the commenters, which no writer can really control, would be a better example.

Looked rather clear that it was a comment. Plus he used the lead in of "speaking of comments."

Regardless, Malkin's association with Vdare counts for a lot.

117 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:07:25pm

re: #110 robdouth

She could delete those comments.

However, being herself part of the race-baiting industry, I doubt she will.

118 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:08:23pm

re: #116 Gus 802

I even put in italics the date, time and name of the commenter. I guess that wasn't good enough.

119 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:08:48pm

re: #116 Gus 802

I guess I hid 5% of the relevant data?

120 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:08:50pm

re: #90 Lightspeed

I think the investigations of the CRU will be illuminating. There is no "smoking gun" as yet, but many hints that something is being hidden. The emails show that the CRU was, in some cases at least, trying to avoid releasing information requested under the Freedom of Information Act. They also show that emails on certain subjects were asked to be deleted. That's not fishy to you? It doesn't prove anything, but it is absolutely suspicious.

Mmkay. So you can't come up with even one example to back up your allegation. You do realize that I've posted at least a dozen examples of the anti-AGW side lying and distorting evidence -- including the claim that the CRU "destroyed data?"

From my point of view, and I follow this closely, all of the lying is coming from one side only -- the "skeptics."

121 Gus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:09:34pm

re: #119 freetoken

I guess I hid 5% of the relevant data?

We must now report you to the BBB! Better Blogging Bureau!

/

122 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:09:42pm

re: #112 SixDegrees

To date, there is no indication anywhere that CRU has done anything unethical or has cheated their data in any way. The inability to reconstruct their HadCRUT3 dataset is problematic, from the standpoint of reproducibility of results, but that is an entirely different issue than any sort of outright fraud or other malfeasance.

if a business could not reconstruct their books they might have a problem, no?

123 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:09:56pm

re: #112 SixDegrees

To date, there is no indication anywhere that CRU has done anything unethical or has cheated their data in any way. The inability to reconstruct their HadCRUT3 dataset is problematic, from the standpoint of reproducibility of results, but that is an entirely different issue than any sort of outright fraud or other malfeasance.

But there are issue with the FOIA requests, how they handled them. This is what part of the upcoming investigation will be concerned with. There is even possible evidence that a woman in the British FOIA office was handing requests off to CRU without those requests going through the proper channels.

124 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:10:49pm

re: #108 Walter L. Newton

The is also a big dust up going on with FOIA requests and how CRU kept playing games with the requests for data. And most of the back and forth on that issue is available on the internet. And the communications between the requester and the CRU are not part of the hacked emails and documents. If you google CRU and FOIA problems you will find what you need.

Yes, I've read that exchange, too. Unfortunately, it is mixed in with several of the purloined emails, and links to that information, while easy to come by, are not welcome here, although the bulk of the exchange is between the author and various people at CRU, which he's free to publish and which weren't part of the hacked data. While the exchange is not pretty, it's beyond the scope of discussion here until only the emails the author can legitimately publish are separated from the stolen emails.

It seems as though this stonewalling of FOIA requests is a large part of the basis for Jones' stepping aside while an examination is performed. The information you're referencing is sure to be released separately as a result.

125 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:11:48pm

re: #112 SixDegrees

To date, there is no indication anywhere that CRU has done anything unethical or has cheated their data in any way. The inability to reconstruct their HadCRUT3 dataset is problematic, from the standpoint of reproducibility of results, but that is an entirely different issue than any sort of outright fraud or other malfeasance.

Here are some comments in the programming code released along with the emails:

. FOIAdocumentsosborn-tree6mannoldprogmaps12.proFOIAdocumentsosborn-tree6mannoldprogmaps15.proFOIAdocumentsosborn-tree6mannoldprogmaps24.pro ; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions
; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD - but shouldn’t usually
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.

or this

•FOIAdocumentsosborn-tree6briffa_sep98_d.pro;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940]
;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
(…)
;
; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)
densall=densall+yearlyadj

"Fudge factor?" "Artificial Correction?" Doesn't sound very scientific to me and, yes, it does suggest fraud.

Link

126 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:13:33pm

re: #124 SixDegrees

Yes, I've read that exchange, too. Unfortunately, it is mixed in with several of the purloined emails, and links to that information, while easy to come by, are not welcome here, although the bulk of the exchange is between the author and various people at CRU, which he's free to publish and which weren't part of the hacked data. While the exchange is not pretty, it's beyond the scope of discussion here until only the emails the author can legitimately publish are separated from the stolen emails.

[snip]

That's why I have only made mention of them, not linked to any of what I am referencing. Anyone with a little skill in googling and researching can easily come up with the information you and I are referencing. But there is not much else I can do to make my point.

But linking to it or not linking to it or clipping and pasting it or not clipping and pasting the information doesn't make the information disappear.

It appears that these issue will be dealt with in the near future.

127 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:14:01pm

re: #125 Lightspeed

Here are some comments in the programming code released along with the emails:

. FOIAdocumentsosborn-tree6mannoldprogmaps12.proFOIA documentsosborn-tree6mannoldprogmaps15.proFOIAdocu mentsosborn-tree6mannoldprogmaps24.pro ; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions
; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD - but shouldn’t usually
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.

or this

•FOIAdocumentsosborn-tree6briffa_sep98_d.pr o;mknormal,yyy,timey,refperiod=[1881,1940]
;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3 ,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
(…)
;
; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)
densall=densall+yearlyadj

"Fudge factor?" "Artificial Correction?" Doesn't sound very scientific to me and, yes, it does suggest fraud.

No, it does not. You have no idea what those comments mean - they're taken completely out of context, from one tiny module of a much larger program. This is yet another bogus accusation based on fantasies.

128 researchok  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:14:43pm

re: #18 Cato the Elder

Oh for heaven's sake. Any post that quotes Kipling's worst poem (and they are legion) gets no further reading from me.

Line of the week.

129 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:15:00pm

re: #119 freetoken

I guess I hid 5% of the relevant data?

Thereby disproving everything you've ever written.

130 JohninLondon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:15:32pm

re: #44 Charles

Charles

1 You know very well that the work by Keith Briffa at the CRU on tree rings is one of the CORE planks supporting the AGW theory. It is not some sort of minor contribution. You seem to be trying to minimise the importance of his work - and the extent to which it is quoted eg by IPCC.

2 If Briffa's raw data was readily available, either directly from CRU or by reference to other custodians -or even 95% of it - people would not have been forced to use FOIA requests to try to obtain it. And the CRU would not now be belatedly offering to try to release as much data as possible, including gaining release of proprietary data which by definition is not available from the other sources you cite.

3 IMHO, much more serious is the refusal to make available the modelling that was used the analyse the raw data. You have been asked several times to comment on the Harry's File stuff - which to the average reader suggests that the programming at CRU was a total dog's breakfast. I have not seen you respond on that.

For major research, while the "scientist" obviously leads on gathering the raw data, and writing up the results, it is prudent to take advice from skilled statisticians on how the data can be presented, what conclusions can legitimately be drawn, what the confidence factors are etc.

(For example, for MRI research my cardiologist daughter conducted, she turned to a Professor of Statistics for advice, and that Professor was named as one of the authors of the published research results).

There is no sign that Briffa employed specialist statistical input.

Also, it is prudent to involved proper programming skills. If the Harry's File stuff is any guide, the programming was about as amateur as it could "Harry" appears to have worked for up to 3 years at the CRU trying to sort out the dog's breakfast, and his comments suggest that there was a good deal of manipulation of the original data. Such manipulation might be fair and reasonable - but it needs to be explained, out in the open. Up to now, it has never been released.

...

In the meanwhile, at least the University of East Anglia is agreeing that there should be maximum transparency. That looks like taking quite a few months to achieve - transparency which should have been there in the first place, as a principle of scientific method.

131 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:16:17pm

re: #127 Charles

No, it does not. You have no idea what those comments mean - they're taken completely out of context, from one tiny module of a much larger program. This is yet another bogus accusation based on fantasies.

Correct... those snippets of notes from "Harry", without the full narrative, can be read in a number of different ways. There are over 75 pages of notes from "Harry" and it's really important that one reads the whole narrative to get any idea of what may or may not be going on with his coding efforts. I've read the whole document.

132 robdouth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:16:20pm

re: #16 Charles

Just read through the first 20-25 comments. It looks like people who don't agree, and don't too much like Obama, but no real hate to speak of. No name calling and/or denigrating you. In fact only one seemed to think you weren't legit conservative, and many took issue with your broad brushing of the right as racist and harsh on women's rights. maybe I have to read the other 15-20 posts, but for internet posts, that's lame on the hate side. Most are just echoing Frum's thoughtful points about manning up against the douches on the right. All I would add is that you don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

133 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:16:22pm

re: #122 brookly red

if a business could not reconstruct their books they might have a problem, no?

Yes, but the problem wouldn't be a problem of, say, book rigging. It would be a problem of failure to adhere to proper accounting standards. It would not, however, by itself constitute evidence of any other wrongdoing, such as fraud or embezzlement.

In fact, my default assumption is that, once CRU makes the raw data available or provides the information necessary for others to reconstruct it, the HadCRUT3 dataset derived from it will be shown to match the dataset reconstructed from the raw data, once the additional filtering has taken place. At this point, there's no reason to suspect that it won't.

134 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:16:26pm

re: #120 Charles

Please comment on post #125. You are a programmer. You know that a computer program can be written to generate whatever output you want given a set of data. If the computer models are wrong, AGW is a house of cards. Worse, if the output was intentionally skewed to support a hypothesis, it is outright fraud.

135 borgcube  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:17:34pm

re: #78 Cato the Elder

Well, I've seen reports that is we stopped eating beef, problem solved. I've seen some articles over the past six months saying that cow farts contribute more than all the rest of man's evil raping of Mother Gaia.

If AGW really means lots of us are going to be underwater and all of the other apocalyptic predictions, wouldn't be easier to just get rid of all the cows instead of destroying economies through wealth redistribution and other bureaucratic nonsense?

Bullshit would be a thing of the past. Literally. Besides, I like fish tacos. Of course, those would be next. The enviro-loons would then come up with doomsday scenarios to stop making us eat fish. They'll never be happy until their wealth redistribution schemes fully make us all impoverished.

136 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:19:04pm

re: #78 Cato the Elder

Are there no advocates here of "cap-and-trade" or the "budgetary approach" summarized above who can explain to me how these schemes are supposed to save the planet? I would really be interested in hearing how.

137 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:19:26pm

re: #135 borgcube

Well, I've seen reports that is we stopped eating beef, problem solved. I've seen some articles over the past six months saying that cow farts contribute more than all the rest of man's evil raping of Mother Gaia
If thats the case, we should be trying to eat ALL the beef as fast as possible!

No More Beef, No More Cows
No More Cows, No More Cow Flatulance

BIG COW IS FARTING US OFF!

138 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:19:49pm

What did Harry's dog eat for breakfast?

139 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:20:21pm

re: #127 Charles

No, it does not. You have no idea what those comments mean - they're taken completely out of context, from one tiny module of a much larger program. This is yet another bogus accusation based on fantasies.

If you say so. "artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures." Very scientific. Try that in an accounting program. They shouldn't have to "artificially adjust" anything. Artifice=fake.

140 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:20:22pm

re: #130 JohninLondon

[snip]

3 IMHO, much more serious is the refusal to make available the modelling that was used the analyse the raw data. You have been asked several times to comment on the Harry's File stuff - which to the average reader suggests that the programming at CRU was a total dog's breakfast. I have not seen you respond on that.

[snip]

I disagree with your statement "which to the average reader suggests..." I am not aware of any average readers who would understand much of anything "Harry" is referencing in his notes.

I am a programmer and data analyst of 25 plus years, and there is no way I can know, point for point exactly what "Harry" is referencing in all parts of his notes.

I will agree with this point. After reading the document, it is evident from "Harry's" own notes and comments, since he says it himself, that "the programming at CRU was a total dog's breakfast."

141 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:20:22pm

re: #125 Lightspeed


First, I don't think Charles wants stolen material reproduced here.

Second, I've seen much more off the cuff comments in code than these; I don't think the comments indicate any sort of fraud, although they do indicate a certain amount of sloppiness and a lack of professionalism. But you should be aware that I've written people up for using profanity in comments, even when it was intended in a humorous way, so I may not be the best example to use for such things.

142 Kragar  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:20:32pm

re: #136 Cato the Elder

Are there no advocates here of "cap-and-trade" or the "budgetary approach" summarized above who can explain to me how these schemes are supposed to save the planet? I would really be interested in hearing how.

1) Tax everything so its so expensive, no one can afford anything anymore
2) ???
3) Save the world!

143 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:21:03pm

re: #132 robdouth

It looks like some comments may have been deleted over there.

144 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:21:29pm

re: #130 JohninLondon

the work by Keith Briffa at the CRU on tree rings is one of the CORE planks supporting the AGW theory.

That is just false.

First, for you to use the term "the AGW theory" is fallacious. It is much akin to the ID crowd when they use the term "Darwinist" - it is a made up phrase to use as a catch-all for something you don't understand.

The "CORE" of theories in climatology is modern physics, classical physics (especially thermodynamics), and all the applied physical sciences (atmospheric physics, oceanography, etc.)

Furthermore, to continually harp on Briffa leads me to believe that you are an acolyte of McIntyre, in which case you are being led so far astray it is no wonder you got the first point ("CORE") so wrong.

145 Kragar  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:21:42pm

re: #137 sattv4u2

Well, I've seen reports that is we stopped eating beef, problem solved. I've seen some articles over the past six months saying that cow farts contribute more than all the rest of man's evil raping of Mother Gaia
If thats the case, we should be trying to eat ALL the beef as fast as possible!

No More Beef, No More Cows
No More Cows, No More Cow Flatulance

BIG COW IS FARTING US OFF!

Of course, we will need to kill the excess cow population to bring the numbers down, and PETA will have a screaming hissy about that.

146 Look At My New Grandbaby!  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:22:31pm

re: #98 Fat Bastard Vegetarian

I just up-dinged that for the hell of it. Don't know what the heck you meant.

Zedushka is Babushka's Significant Other.

147 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:22:54pm

re: #142 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

1) Tax everything so its so expensive, no one can afford anything anymore
2) ???
3) Save the world!

Tax, tax, and more tax. Then tax until your behavior changes. Then keep on taxing anyway because the revenue stream is good.

Liberals love the tax!

148 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:23:01pm

re: #144 freetoken

That is just false.

First, for you to use the term "the AGW theory" is fallacious. It is much akin to the ID crowd when they use the term "Darwinist" - it is a made up phrase to use as a catch-all for something you don't understand.

The "CORE" of theories in climatology is modern physics, classical physics (especially thermodynamics), and all the applied physical sciences (atmospheric physics, oceanography, etc.)

Furthermore, to continually harp on Briffa leads me to believe that you are an acolyte of McIntyre, in which case you are being led so far astray it is no wonder you got the first point ("CORE") so wrong.

You beat me to it. You're right - it's completely false, like almost all the talking points JohninLondon keeps dumping into these threads.

149 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:23:12pm

re: #134 Lightspeed

Please comment on post #125. You are a programmer. You know that a computer program can be written to generate whatever output you want given a set of data. If the computer models are wrong, AGW is a house of cards. Worse, if the output was intentionally skewed to support a hypothesis, it is outright fraud.

You do not have enough information in "Harry's" document to make the statement you just made. I am a programmer, database developer and analyst and I have read ALL OF HARRY'S DOCUMENT, and I couldn't make the statement you made in a thousand years.

What the hell is your qualifications to suggest what you are suggesting?

Yes, I can rightly say that procedures and version control and stuff like that at CRU was sloppy, because "Harry" point that out. But there is no way to know from his notes if the computer models were wrong.

You are way off base.

150 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:23:12pm

re: #133 SixDegrees

Yes, but the problem wouldn't be a problem of, say, book rigging. It would be a problem of failure to adhere to proper accounting standards. It would not, however, by itself constitute evidence of any other wrongdoing, such as fraud or embezzlement.

In fact, my default assumption is that, once CRU makes the raw data available or provides the information necessary for others to reconstruct it, the HadCRUT3 dataset derived from it will be shown to match the dataset reconstructed from the raw data, once the additional filtering has taken place. At this point, there's no reason to suspect that it won't.

OK I will buy the assumption that there was no fraud, but if they can't keep their own freakin files in order then maybe, just maybe they can't be relied on 100%.

151 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:23:29pm

re: #143 Charles

It looks like some comments may have been deleted over there.

Why does the name "Chekote" ring a bell?

Banned Lizard?

152 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:24:45pm

re: #141 SixDegrees

Second, I've seen much more off the cuff comments in code than these; I don't think the comments indicate any sort of fraud, although they do indicate a certain amount of sloppiness and a lack of professionalism. But you should be aware that I've written people up for using profanity in comments, even when it was intended in a humorous way, so I may not be the best example to use for such things.

Sloppiness in science (and computer code) can lead to an invalid result. It may not be intentional, but that remains to be seen.

153 talon_262  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:25:40pm

re: #151 sattv4u2

Why does the name "Chekote" ring a bell?

Banned Lizard?

Yup...

154 Unakite  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:26:20pm

re: #10 brookly red

withhold 5% of your declared income & see what happens...

Uh...I think you withhold 100% of your declared income. At least I do.

155 Winston Smith, Fox News Moderator  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:27:09pm

re: #141 SixDegrees

First, I don't think Charles wants stolen material reproduced here.

Second, I've seen much more off the cuff comments in code than these; I don't think the comments indicate any sort of fraud, although they do indicate a certain amount of sloppiness and a lack of professionalism. But you should be aware that I've written people up for using profanity in comments, even when it was intended in a humorous way, so I may not be the best example to use for such things.

The habitual use of frivolous, "cute" and even childish language and terminology among scientists has been a growing problem for a long time and it is part of the problem with these leaked e-mails. Humorless old martinets like my humble self have long expressed disapproval but to no avail. I think it started as an effort to humanize such intimidating subjects as nuclear physics ("quark" etc.) and simply became part of the culture.

156 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:27:51pm

re: #153 talon_262

Yup...

Thought so
There's another "name" I recognoze
Stueic

Reading the comments after Strums article, most seem passive but those two, you can tell they have an axe to grind with our host

157 borgcube  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:27:58pm

re: #145 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

Of course, we will need to kill the excess cow population to bring the numbers down, and PETA will have a screaming hissy about that.

That would be so funny to watch. The same people screaming how to save the planet would be screaming to not save the planet.

If of course, the cow thingee is true. I have no idea.

158 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:28:08pm

re: #155 shiplord kirel

I think it started as an effort to humanize such intimidating subjects as nuclear physics ("quark" etc.) and simply became part of the culture.

I've been charmed by QCD.

159 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:28:10pm

re: #154 Unakite

Uh...I think you withhold 100% of your declared income. At least I do.

perhaps I sould have said "not report"...

160 Sharmuta  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:28:41pm

re: #16 Charles

And the comments for Frum's post are full of hatred, of course.

Of course- he's a RINO.

161 Killgore Trout  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:28:50pm

Geert Wilders on the Glenn Beck Show

162 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:29:21pm

re: #152 Lightspeed

Sloppiness in science (and computer code) can lead to an invalid result. It may not be intentional, but that remains to be seen.

Sloppiness in comments has no impact at all on the correctness of the program. They don't get compiled into the executable, after all.

163 Killgore Trout  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:29:35pm

re: #161 Killgore Trout

Ooops, I think that's an old clip.

164 freetoken  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:29:44pm

re: #161 Killgore Trout

They make a lovely couple.

165 Kragar  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:29:58pm

re: #161 Killgore Trout

Geert Wilders on the Glenn Beck Show

[Video]

"My hair challenges yours to a fight."

166 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:30:01pm

re: #160 Sharmuta

Of course- he's a RINO.

Not "full" , but several, and most of the "several" are from 1 banned Lizard

167 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:30:14pm

re: #134 Lightspeed

Please comment on post #125. You are a programmer. You know that a computer program can be written to generate whatever output you want given a set of data. If the computer models are wrong, AGW is a house of cards. Worse, if the output was intentionally skewed to support a hypothesis, it is outright fraud.

And to go into more detail on your point. Yes, computer programs can be written to skew data. But where did you see all the computer programs that make up the modeling system at CRU?

It's not in "Harry's" notes, is it. Do you have the whole suite of Fortran programs, user-defined function library and datasets?

Because if you don't, then there is NO WAY YOU CAN MAKE THE STATEMENT YOU JUST MADE, because you don't have access to enough code to make such a statement.

Now, you have been so demanding that Charles answers you, I think there is enough question out to YOU, that's it's about time you start addressing some points.

And guess what, I am not in total agreement with Charles on any of this, but I'm not going to let you come in here an lie about something you know nothing about.

168 robdouth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:31:03pm

re: #143 Charles

Point taken. I would echo Frum's argument though, because if you take the tack of working from "within" (whatever that means) the movement, it tends to lend more credibility. Not to say you aren't credible of course, aw crap I don't know what to say. Ever since that email, there's a play going around in my head. The battered woman who leaves the drunk stupid abusive man. The battered woman of course played by Markie Post (this is a Lifetime production by the way) And the drunken man played by a genetically engineered clone of Rush and Beck. It's a very disturbing play. At the end it morphs into Scarlett in Gone with the Wind and Charles/Markie drops to his knees grabbing handfuls of dirt/bytes talking about LGF as Terra.

169 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:31:07pm

re: #152 Lightspeed

Sloppiness in science (and computer code) can lead to an invalid result. It may not be intentional, but that remains to be seen.

YOU DON'T HAVE THE COMPUTER CODE, you haven't seen th whole suite of Fortran programs, so you cannot honestly make these statement, can you?

170 sattv4u2  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:32:00pm

Dinner time!
After that, anything good on TV tonight!?!?!?!

///

171 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:32:20pm

re: #169 Walter L. Newton

YOU DON'T HAVE THE COMPUTER CODE, you haven't seen th whole suite of Fortran programs, so you cannot honestly make these statement, can you?

Show me the functions!

172 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:32:21pm

re: #155 shiplord kirel

The habitual use of frivolous, "cute" and even childish language and terminology among scientists has been a growing problem for a long time and it is part of the problem with these leaked e-mails. Humorless old martinets like my humble self have long expressed disapproval but to no avail. I think it started as an effort to humanize such intimidating subjects as nuclear physics ("quark" etc.) and simply became part of the culture.

Frankly, it bugs the shit out of me. We do, occasionally, distribute our source code to customers, sometimes even source code that was developed on another contract without such an agreement in place. Having to waste my time scanning through reams of source code looking for someone's yuk yuks is not the way to make my happy. Put whatever you want on your own personal website, but keep the comments in company source code at the same level of professionalism as you would use when preparing a presentation to a customer.

173 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:33:06pm

re: #149 Walter L. Newton

You do not have enough information in "Harry's" document to make the statement you just made. I am a programmer, database developer and analyst and I have read ALL OF HARRY'S DOCUMENT, and I couldn't make the statement you made in a thousand years.

What the hell is your qualifications to suggest what you are suggesting?

Yes, I can rightly say that procedures and version control and stuff like that at CRU was sloppy, because "Harry" point that out. But there is no way to know from his notes if the computer models were wrong.

You are way off base.

I am also a programmer and database developer, though those are not currently my primary roles. The comments to the code seem to reveal that adjustments were made to the code to acheive a preconceived result. I know from experience that it is often very difficult to anticipate the results of complex code/equations because there are often factors not taken into consideration. That is why we debug code. Do you think that these artificial adjustments would be an appropriate fix for a rounding error in Microsoft Excel's code. Of course not.

174 robdouth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:33:46pm

re: #129 Charles

Calm down guys, I wasn't saying it disproved his point, just that the aim has to be true before you fire your internet arrow of truthitude. Don't want one of those going astray and catching Oprah.com in the ass.

175 McSpiff  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:34:08pm

re: #172 SixDegrees

Frankly, it bugs the shit out of me. We do, occasionally, distribute our source code to customers, sometimes even source code that was developed on another contract without such an agreement in place. Having to waste my time scanning through reams of source code looking for someone's yuk yuks is not the way to make my happy. Put whatever you want on your own personal website, but keep the comments in company source code at the same level of professionalism as you would use when preparing a presentation to a customer.

I've received code that was commented in a foreign language. Massive code base too, and no arch docs. Figuring out the overall design honestly felt like one of those "I'm in the matrix" moments.

176 bosforus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:35:08pm

re: #175 McSpiff

I've received code that was commented in a foreign language. Massive code base too, and no arch docs. Figuring out the overall design honestly felt like one of those "I'm in the matrix" moments.

I feel that way 9 hours out of 10 with my own frickin' code!

177 Sharmuta  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:36:02pm

re: #166 sattv4u2

Not "full" , but several, and most of the "several" are from 1 banned Lizard

I mean that because Frum is a RINO! the haters wouldn't think twice about being disrespectful at his site. They hate conservatives like Frum almost as much as they hate Charles. Why wouldn't they try to trash his article? I'm sure it's a rude awakening to Mr. Frum to learn in this manner exactly what Charles was talking about.

178 osprey34229  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:36:40pm

I get it now.
The yellow brick road = carbon offset credits
East Anglia =Oz
Phil Jones = The Wiz
Now where does this leave us ??

179 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:37:00pm

re: #169 Walter L. Newton

YOU DON'T HAVE THE COMPUTER CODE, you haven't seen th whole suite of Fortran programs, so you cannot honestly make these statement, can you?

No, I don't. The point is that the comments suggest that the results of the modeling are being manipulated. Was it done for a good reason, programming or otherwise? INVESTIGATE AND FIND OUT.

180 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:39:07pm

re: #173 Lightspeed

I am also a programmer and database developer, though those are not currently my primary roles. The comments to the code seem to reveal that adjustments were made to the code to acheive a preconceived result. I know from experience that it is often very difficult to anticipate the results of complex code/equations because there are often factors not taken into consideration. That is why we debug code. Do you think that these artificial adjustments would be an appropriate fix for a rounding error in Microsoft Excel's code. Of course not.

I will say it again. Without the complete suite of Fortran programs, the specialized functions library designed for these programs and all the data table that are used with the modeling suite of software, you have no positive proof of what "Harry" is referencing in his notes. I have read his complete narrative.

And as I said, I can certainly surmise that CRU's in house IT procedures and control were shit, non-existent, but that doesn't make your argument.

And, what is your area as programmer and database developer, what platforms, languages, developer of what, how about some credentials?

181 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:39:11pm

re: #161 Killgore Trout

Geert Wilders on the Glenn Beck Show

[Video]

Wilders and Beck, together at last. The populist demagogue from Holland meets the populist demagogue from Fox News.

182 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:40:08pm

re: #175 McSpiff

I've received code that was commented in a foreign language. Massive code base too, and no arch docs. Figuring out the overall design honestly felt like one of those "I'm in the matrix" moments.

There are some really good tools available to help with such analysis, at least in some cases, and if all you're trying to do is figure out how the program works in a broad sense. We have a collection of code that's accumulated over the last 20 years, roughly a million lines of mostly C, with a smattering of Fortran mixed in and hardly a comment in the whole pile. On a whim, I ran it through Doxygen - a tool that generates an enormous HTML suite of every function, variable, class and other software object it recognizes, all hyperlinked and organized in a very structured way - and within just a couple of days we had solved several problems that had defied analysis for weeks prior. It wasn't really designed for this purpose - it's supposed to be a documentation tool, but if the code doesn't use it's "special" comment structure it is still able to extract most of the information noted - but it's sweet. And free. And it works on Java, C, C++, Fortran and I think a couple of other languages.

183 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:41:58pm

re: #179 Lightspeed

No, they don't suggest that. That's the interpretation you're overlaying onto them. Without consulting the programmer, we simply don't know what's meant by those comments, and I can easily come up with a half-dozen completely innocent explanations without even trying hard.

184 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:42:03pm

More from this link below:
"In the past, I have written that as an experienced modeller, I am extremely suspicious when anyone’s models very closely match history. This is a common modelers trick - use various plugs and fudge factors and special algorithms to force the model to match history better (when it is used to “back-cast”) and people will likely trust the model more when you use it to forecast. For a variety of reasons, I have been suspicious this was the case with climate models, but never could prove it. One example from the link above

Looking back over history, it appears the model is never off by more than 0.4C in any month, and never goes more than about 10 months before re-intersecting the “actual” line. Does it bother anyone else that this level of precision is several times higher than the model has when run forward? Almost immediately, the model is more than 0.4C off, and goes years without intercepting reality."

185 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:42:47pm

re: #179 Lightspeed

No, I don't. The point is that the comments suggest that the results of the modeling are being manipulated. Was it done for a good reason, programming or otherwise? INVESTIGATE AND FIND OUT.

You can't honestly make these statement can you? The point is there is no point, you have no conclusive proof as to what "Harry" was referencing, only anecdotal.

I'm glad that programming and database development is not currently my primary roles, because in my opinion, you would be cheating an employer.

You have no point.

186 JohninLondon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:44:58pm

re: #148 Charles

You beat me to it. You're right - it's completely false, like almost all the talking points JohninLondon keeps dumping into these threads.

Charles - you still fail to comment on the suggestion that programming at CRU was a dog's breakfast.

If it was indeed a dog's breakfast, Briffa's results are unreliable. I have nowhere suggested that Briffa falsified results. The original concern was the lack of transparency,, which has made reproducability impossible. Tthis frustrates scientific method. And this is now compounded by clear signs that the programming was a mess.

So why, pray, should anyone rely on Briffa until there is full transparecy ?

And if Briffa's work is not fundamental to the AGW theory - why is it quoted all through the IPCC documents ?

187 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:46:14pm

re: #184 Lightspeed

And it is evident that you are simply parroting what someone else is saying. I have already read that article, and he has nothing more to work with than what you have been saying here, which is evidently [not your opinion anyway, it's the opinion of the author at that website. The same things I have said to you can be transfered to his article, since that is where you got you opinion from in the first place.

Don't let other people think for you, it makes you look dumb.

188 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:46:20pm

By the way, the people who are bashing me at Frum Forum were banned from LGF for being assholes.

As usual.

189 McSpiff  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:48:11pm

re: #182 SixDegrees

Funny you mention that, that's exactly what one of the devs ended up sending me a link to. They had set it up on the internal web server and everything. This code base was, I believe 3 million lines of C++, few hundred thousand C and a good chunk of...can't think of the name of it, but it was like a cross between Pascal and assembly, used mostly by the US Navy.

190 Unakite  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:48:13pm

re: #159 brookly red

perhaps I sould have said "not report"...

Yep. I was Just making a dumb comment. :)

191 robdouth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:48:28pm

re: #188 Charles

This reminds me of that one time I was watching Western Sakiyuki Django and... No it really doesn't i just like dropping obscure references. It would make sense though that if you can't vent your sexual frustrations at LGF anymore, you vent them wherever you get access even indirectly to LGF.

192 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:48:34pm

re: #184 Lightspeed

So, despite many encounters, this author has never been able to demonstrate that any of his suspicions of fraud were, actually, fraud.

As Walter has pointed out, it's impossible to reach such a conclusion, either from the entire corpus of code available (which Walter has examined in detail) and certainly not from the small, isolated snippet in question.

Also, you might want to take a gander at polynomial curve fitting, with particular attention to interpolation versus extrapolation. The sort of behavior described is, in fact, quite normal for many mathematical models. The author's suspicions seem to be based on a lack of understanding of programming, mathematics or both.

193 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:49:04pm

re: #179 Lightspeed

Simple question. Have you read all of "Harry's" notes, all appox. 75 pages? Have you? Do you have the file?

194 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:50:03pm

re: #180 Walter L. Newton

I will say it again. Without the complete suite of Fortran programs, the specialized functions library designed for these programs and all the data table that are used with the modeling suite of software, you have no positive proof of what "Harry" is referencing in his notes. I have read his complete narrative.

And as I said, I can certainly surmise that CRU's in house IT procedures and control were shit, non-existent, but that doesn't make your argument.

And, what is your area as programmer and database developer, what platforms, languages, developer of what, how about some credentials?

My credentials:

Microsoft Certified on Database Development/Administration of SQL Server 6.5 (pre-MCDBA). Certified on Microsoft Access 95. Currently hold around 35 Microsoft Certifications. Have programmed professionally in COBOL, Visual Basic, Visual Basic for Application. Developed databases primarily using Access/SQL Server, including AR/AP, inventory management, business process development. Not much FORTRAN, though I did study it a bit back in high school.

I stand by my other statements. If Harry can give an explanation of the comments that makes sense, I will back down. On the face of it, however, it looks more than a bit fishy to me.

195 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:51:14pm

re: #189 McSpiff

Funny you mention that, that's exactly what one of the devs ended up sending me a link to. They had set it up on the internal web server and everything. This code base was, I believe 3 million lines of C++, few hundred thousand C and a good chunk of...can't think of the name of it, but it was like a cross between Pascal and assembly, used mostly by the US Navy.

Ada. A language designed by a committee. Have fun.

Doxygen is a neat tool, though. We now use it for all of our projects, because it generates a really useful, hyperlinked website automatically. We update it nightly with a script, so it doesn't even require work anymore.

196 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:52:58pm

re: #192 SixDegrees

So, despite many encounters, this author has never been able to demonstrate that any of his suspicions of fraud were, actually, fraud.

As Walter has pointed out, it's impossible to reach such a conclusion, either from the entire corpus of code available (which Walter has examined in detail) and certainly not from the small, isolated snippet in question.

Also, you might want to take a gander at polynomial curve fitting, with particular attention to interpolation versus extrapolation. The sort of behavior described is, in fact, quite normal for many mathematical models. The author's suspicions seem to be based on a lack of understanding of programming, mathematics or both.

No, I have not examine the complete code, I can't find the complete code. I have read the 75 pages of "harry's" notes about his work at CRU and his work with all the code. There are some code snippets in "harry's" notes, but no where near the full suite of programs that CRU was using for modeling.

That's why I keep saying that Lightspeed nor anyone else can have a full accurate picture of what "harry" was referencing.

I've heard rumors that the full suite of source code is available in some .gar files, but I have yet been able to find them. Even if I had the whole ball of wax, without all the data tables and a number of other necessary pieces, I would not have a complete picture of the validity of the modeling software (although I could make some better predictions).

197 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:53:00pm

re: #194 Lightspeed

Well, since you won't take anyone's explanation other than Harry's, I guess we're done here. I'd suggest you try contacting him directly via CRU, since that's the only source you'll accept.

198 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:53:04pm

re: #185 Walter L. Newton

I'm glad that programming and database development is not currently my primary roles, because in my opinion, you would be cheating an employer.

Ad hominem attacks. How nice.

199 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:53:56pm

re: #196 Walter L. Newton

Sloppy of me - my meaning was that you had examined all the code there is to examine. I'm aware that it isn't complete.

200 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:55:03pm

re: #194 Lightspeed

My credentials:

Microsoft Certified on Database Development/Administration of SQL Server 6.5 (pre-MCDBA). Certified on Microsoft Access 95. Currently hold around 35 Microsoft Certifications. Have programmed professionally in COBOL, Visual Basic, Visual Basic for Application. Developed databases primarily using Access/SQL Server, including AR/AP, inventory management, business process development. Not much FORTRAN, though I did study it a bit back in high school.

I stand by my other statements. If Harry can give an explanation of the comments that makes sense, I will back down. On the face of it, however, it looks more than a bit fishy to me.

Why does "harry" have to explain himself to you. The burden of proof is on you, and the burden is not to make something up.

201 McSpiff  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:55:05pm

re: #195 SixDegrees

Ada. A language designed by a committee. Have fun.

Doxygen is a neat tool, though. We now use it for all of our projects, because it generates a really useful, hyperlinked website automatically. We update it nightly with a script, so it doesn't even require work anymore.

Might have been modulo-2?, wasn't ada. I know the wikipedia article entry for it stated that it hadn't been useed the late 1970s, early 1980s. Wish it was ada. Ada has better documents. And doxygen is in my toolkit for good now I'd say. Damn useful program.

202 The Hoopster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:55:29pm

re: #189 McSpiff

Funny you mention that, that's exactly what one of the devs ended up sending me a link to. They had set it up on the internal web server and everything. This code base was, I believe 3 million lines of C++, few hundred thousand C and a good chunk of...can't think of the name of it, but it was like a cross between Pascal and assembly, used mostly by the US Navy.

Boy anybody that uses a lot of C in a C++ project is asking for trouble...Maybe use C in some in line statements or device drivers...But using that much C in three million lines of C++ code is just asking for trouble..
/What happened to the memory Heap..It was here a minute ago..
*wink*

203 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:55:37pm

re: #198 Lightspeed

Ad hominem attacks. How nice.

Don't thank me, I know.

204 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:56:33pm

re: #5 brookly red

I don't think I would understand it... but I do understand that 95% is not 100%. So, why was 5% witheld?

Brooklyn - read what they wrote. The remaining 5% is proprietary data from other meteorological services that they didn't have permission to publish. They're working on getting the permissions now.

205 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:56:36pm

re: #199 SixDegrees

Sloppy of me - my meaning was that you had examined all the code there is to examine. I'm aware that it isn't complete.

Yes, I have read all of "harry's" notes that were available.

206 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:56:40pm

re: #198 Lightspeed

Ad hominem attacks. How nice.

Not really. It's an attack against your professional abilities, which an ad hominem attack would make no mention of. It is grounded in your own comments. It may not be nice, but it is not an ad hominem attack.

207 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:57:33pm

re: #193 Walter L. Newton

Simple question. Have you read all of "Harry's" notes, all appox. 75 pages? Have you? Do you have the file?

No, I have not. I will see if I can find it. But if the statements like "these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures" don't make you wonder what the heck is going on and want to get to the bottom of it, I don't know what will.

208 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:57:38pm

Dinner. BBIAB.

209 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:58:06pm

SUMMARY:
Twenty five years as a programmer. Twelve years working experience with Oracle forms and reports (6i, 9i), Oracle database 9i, 10g, PL/SQL, database level triggers and stored procedures. Also have strong Visual Basic and Visual FoxPro programming experience. Have programmed custom software applications from analysis to finished product. Applications developed include commercial products and custom in-house systems for finance, affirmative action, human resources, work order tracking, POS, inventory and legal systems. Also responsible for documentation, training, manuals and testing plans

TECHNICAL SKILLS:

Programming Skills: (languages)
Oracle Reports 9i, using PL/SQL, store procedures, database triggers.
Oracle Forms and Reports 6i, store procedures, database triggers. (7 years)
Oracle Custom.pll (7 years)
Oracle database 9i, 10g
Oracle PL/SQL
FoxPro and Visual FoxPro (15 years)
dBase, Clipper, Paradox (15 years)
Visual Basic 6.0 (7 years)
HTML (7 years)
SQL (20 years)
VB.NET (1 year)
Great Plains Econnect (1 year)

Tools Skills:
Oracle Reports 9i
Oracle Forms and Reports 6i
Oracle SQL Developer
PL/SQL Developer
Microsoft SQL Server 2000
Visual FoxPro
Visual Studio
Cold Fusion
Access
Microsoft Word, Excel, SourceSafe, Publisher, Projects

210 Gus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:58:39pm

Two for the troll roast both here and here!

211 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:59:35pm

In the weekly "Science Times" today, the NYT's John Tierney has an article about the CRU fracas.

As far as I can tell, Tierney cannot be accused of climate-change "denial". Nor can I see that the NYT generally ranges itself among the "skeptics".

Tierney sees some real problems with this supposed nontroversy, however.

Quote:

Harry, whoever he may be, comes off as the most sympathetic figure in the pilfered computer annals of East Anglia University, the British keeper of global temperature records. While Harry’s log shows him worrying about the integrity of the database, the climate scientists are e-mailing one another with strategies for blocking outsiders’ legal requests to see their data.

While Harry is puzzling over temperatures — “I have that familiar Twilight Zone sensation” — the scientists are confidently making proclamations to journalists, jetting to conferences and plotting revenge against those who question the dangers of global warming. When a journal publishes a skeptic’s paper, the scientists e-mail one another to ignore it. They focus instead on retaliation against the journal and the editor, a project that is breezily added to the agenda of their next meeting: “Another thing to discuss in Nice!”

As the scientists denigrate their critics in the e-mail messages, they seem oblivious to one of the greatest dangers in the climate-change debate: smug groupthink. These researchers, some of the most prominent climate experts in Britain and America, seem so focused on winning the public-relations war that they exaggerate their certitude — and ultimately undermine their own cause.

And:

Contempt for critics is evident over and over again in the hacked e-mail messages, as if the scientists were a priesthood protecting the temple from barbarians. Yes, some of the skeptics have political agendas, but so do some of the scientists. Sure, the skeptics can be cranks and pests, but they have identified genuine problems in the historical reconstructions of climate, as in the debate they inspired about the “hockey stick” graph of temperatures over the past millennium.

Hmm. Genuine problems. But maybe I'm missing something. Perhaps Tierney is a creationist mole. Perhaps he doesn't really believe in science. What do I know?

212 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:59:38pm

re: #206 SixDegrees

Not really. It's an attack against your professional abilities, which an ad hominem attack would make no mention of. It is grounded in your own comments. It may not be nice, but it is not an ad hominem attack.

And how exactly can Walter judge my professional abilities from a few comments in a single thread. Not ad hominem? Please.

213 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 3:59:39pm

re: #14 Charles

David Frum wants me to come back:

[Link: www.frumforum.com...]

How 'bout that. I assumed "frum forum" would be a modern orthodox dating site...

214 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:00:47pm

re: #209 Walter L. Newton

SUMMARY:
Twenty five years as a programmer. Twelve years working experience with Oracle forms and reports (6i, 9i), Oracle database 9i, 10g, PL/SQL, database level triggers and stored procedures. Also have strong Visual Basic and Visual FoxPro programming experience. Have programmed custom software applications from analysis to finished product. Applications developed include commercial products and custom in-house systems for finance, affirmative action, human resources, work order tracking, POS, inventory and legal systems. Also responsible for documentation, training, manuals and testing plans

TECHNICAL SKILLS:

Programming Skills: (languages)
Oracle Reports 9i, using PL/SQL, store procedures, database triggers.
Oracle Forms and Reports 6i, store procedures, database triggers. (7 years)
Oracle Custom.pll (7 years)
Oracle database 9i, 10g
Oracle PL/SQL
FoxPro and Visual FoxPro (15 years)
dBase, Clipper, Paradox (15 years)
Visual Basic 6.0 (7 years)
HTML (7 years)
SQL (20 years)
VB.NET (1 year)
Great Plains Econnect (1 year)

Tools Skills:
Oracle Reports 9i
Oracle Forms and Reports 6i
Oracle SQL Developer
PL/SQL Developer
Microsoft SQL Server 2000
Visual FoxPro
Visual Studio
Cold Fusion
Access
Microsoft Word, Excel, SourceSafe, Publisher, Projects

Put your dick away, Walter, it is unbecoming.

215 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:01:10pm

re: #207 Lightspeed

No, I have not. I will see if I can find it. But if the statements like "these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures" don't make you wonder what the heck is going on and want to get to the bottom of it, I don't know what will.

When I first read comments about "harry's" comments, yes it did. And then guess what? I did what obviously you didn't do. I found the document and read the whole thing.

I can't believe you are arguing about this and you haven't even read his notes. Get back in touch with me when you do, I'm done talking to you about this.

(Unbelievable)

216 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:02:12pm

re: #209 Walter L. Newton

Can we, as a society, not include visual basic when citing our credentials as programmers?

:)

217 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:02:38pm

re: #216 Cineaste

Can we, as a society, not include visual basic when citing our credentials as programmers?

:)

Snob.

218 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:02:42pm

My applies equally to you Lightspeed.

219 Look At My New Grandbaby!  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:03:11pm

re: #209 Walter L. Newton

You skillset is very similar to mine, except that my years at Ford and GM also include programming applications specific to the automotive industry.

220 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:03:56pm

re: #215 Walter L. Newton

Get back in touch with me when you do, I'm done talking to you about this.

you mean, "talking down" to me about this. As is your usual style.

221 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:04:27pm

And as long as I'm being a snob, no more citing "Microsoft Certifications" either...

222 The Hoopster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:04:47pm

re: #216 Cineaste

Can we, as a society, not include visual basic when citing our credentials as programmers?

:)

Unless you can use VB to write OCX wrappers...only then :

223 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:04:56pm

re: #211 Cato the Elder

In the weekly "Science Times" today, the NYT's John Tierney has an article about the CRU fracas.

As far as I can tell, Tierney cannot be accused of climate-change "denial". Nor can I see that the NYT generally ranges itself among the "skeptics".

Tierney sees some real problems with this supposed nontroversy, however.

Quote:

Hmm. Genuine problems. But maybe I'm missing something. Perhaps Tierney is a creationist mole. Perhaps he doesn't really believe in science. What do I know?

No, you are not missing anything, this is what is becoming the REAL issue here, not pro/con AGW, but the little cabal at CRU that has been acting more like politicians than scientist. And that's what's going to be the lead items in any upcoming investigations.

Whether the science is right or wrong, these guys have shot themselves in the foot, and they are going to get a backdraft from their machinations for sure.

224 Christopher Luebcke  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:05:10pm

re: #155 shiplord kirel

I get a good laugh out of "sparticles", though that name actually has a reasonable origin. But "strange" and "charm"?

225 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:05:24pm

re: #220 Lightspeed

you mean, "talking down" to me about this. As is your usual style.

What ever, go for it.

226 Varek Raith  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:05:31pm

re: #220 Lightspeed

you mean, "talking down" to me about this. As is your usual style.

He did actually read the relevant info, you on the other hand...

227 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:05:37pm

re: #209 Walter L. Newton

Hey Walter - long time. Nice resume.

I just checked the CRU site for the 95% of the raw data they didn't delete. I found this page and the only obvious candidate there was this file, but when I downloaded it I got a "bad archive" message.

Is that the 95% of the raw data? Have you had any luck finding it? TIA.

228 Cannadian Club Akbar  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:05:38pm

re: #221 Cineaste

And as long as I'm being a snob, no more citing "Microsoft Certifications" either...

Are those bad? ( I just got here and I'm not being snarky)

229 cliffster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:06:22pm

re: #221 Cineaste

And as long as I'm being a snob, no more citing "Microsoft Certifications" either...

I love it when people put "TCP/IP" on their resume under "Skills". Really? You that low on bullet-points? Or did you think you were applying at Cisco?

230 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:07:05pm

re: #221 Cineaste

And as long as I'm being a snob, no more citing "Microsoft Certifications" either...

Good for me, I'm not certified, schooled or cultured Lightspeed can attest to my lack of culture), I started fussing with computers when they were still those wooden framed things with the little black and white beads, and I learn it all on my little own...

231 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:07:05pm

re: #221 Cineaste

And as long as I'm being a snob, no more citing "Microsoft Certifications" either...

Oh, why don't you just go back to writing exclusively in machine code, like a real man? ;^)

232 ArchangelMichael  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:08:33pm

re: #216 Cineaste

Can we, as a society, not include visual basic when citing our credentials as programmers?

:)

I don't believe VB is a real programming language.

I guess I'm a VB denialist.
/

233 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:08:34pm

re: #228 Cannadian Club Akbar

Are those bad? ( I just got here and I'm not being snarky)

No - just largely meaningless. You take a seminar for a couple hours administered by someone from Microsoft, pay a few hundred dollars and voila, you tell the boss at the law firm you work at that you are now a holder of a "microsoft certification".

It's a far site from spending years coding in a robust object-oriented environment, for example. Or building real databases. Or building legos...

234 Jeff In Ohio  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:08:43pm

re: #109 avanti

Annapolis grad? My cousin Hank graduated from Annapolis about '68. Helicopter pilot. About your age.

235 JohninLondon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:09:47pm

"Harry" is presumed to be Ian "Harry" Harris, a research staffer at the CRU - listed as being involved in dendroclimatology, data manipulation and visualisation, and programming :

[Link: www.cru.uea.ac.uk...]

It sounds like he has had a rough time trying to sort thrugh the dog's breakfast of predecessor(s) programming. I hope things don't get any more rough for the poor blighter !

236 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:10:19pm

re: #227 wii42

Hey Walter - long time. Nice resume.

I just checked the CRU site for the 95% of the raw data they didn't delete. I found this page and the only obvious candidate there was this file, but when I downloaded it I got a "bad archive" message.

Is that the 95% of the raw data? Have you had any luck finding it? TIA.

I'm not concerned with the 5 percent. My investigation has been how they compiled the dataset, how the dataset has been amended and modified over the years and now how they have no idea how each particular data element connects to the original reporting agency and the reporting location.

I looking in to the way the data was modeled and compiled, not running any audits on the actual data itself.

237 Cineaste  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:10:44pm

re: #231 Cato the Elder

Oh, why don't you just go back to writing exclusively in machine code, like a real man? ;^)

For the record, I did do a complete implementation of a 68030 microcode in a mere 128 lines of code. That's some snazzy bit-twiddling. Enough that I got kudos from Apple at the time for the shortest they'd ever seen.

That being said, it was the slowest piece of crap code you'd ever seen.

But hey, it left over about 900 lines worth of space for everything else you wanted to do with that first kilobyte...

238 Lightspeed  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:12:28pm

re: #226 Varek Raith

He did actually read the relevant info, you on the other hand...

I haven't read the enitre health care bill, but I will certainly comment on the sections I have read. I remarked on specific comments from the code.

By the way, all comments to source code are "out of context" without the actual code. Neither Walter nor I have seen the actual source code.

239 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:12:47pm

re: #236 Walter L. Newton

Maybe I wasn't clear. I'm not looking for the 5% either - I'm looking for the 95% of the raw data CRU didn't delete. Where is it on the CRU site? Do you already have it?

240 captdiggs  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:13:16pm

re: #211 Cato the Elder

Politics and science don't mix.
They didn't mix when Bush vetoed federal funds for stem cell research, and they don't mix with climate science either.

241 Jeff In Ohio  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:13:18pm

re: #137 sattv4u2

Methane comes from cows burping, not farting. Just saying.

242 SixDegrees  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:13:35pm

re: #212 Lightspeed

Because you listed them, and then held up your own actual knowledge against them in the remainder of your comments.

Perhaps you should look up what an ad hominem attack actually is.

243 The Hoopster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:15:49pm

I hope we get a thread on Obama's speech tonight...Should be very interesting to see where our direction will go in the next few years in Afghanistan

244 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:15:58pm

Ah, coding reminiscences.

I wrote several very large utility applications for the Atari ST/TT in pure 680x0 assembly language, back in the day. One of them replaced all of the OS's graphics routines with highly optimized machine code (unroll those loops, baby) and resulted in massive speedups for screen updates. Another was a complete development shell that used undocumented hooks in TOS (the Atari OS) to replace the built-in desktop. Good times.

245 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:16:29pm

re: #239 wii42

Maybe I wasn't clear. I'm not looking for the 5% either - I'm looking for the 95% of the raw data CRU didn't delete. Where is it on the CRU site? Do you already have it?

Here's the link to CRU and their datasets.

You need hadcrut3.txt ...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

and this data format document...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

the main download page is...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

246 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:17:56pm

re: #245 Walter L. Newton

Sorry to be a pest, but isn't HADCRUT3 the 'value-added' dataset, not the raw data?

247 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:18:06pm

re: #242 SixDegrees

Because you listed them, and then held up your own actual knowledge against them in the remainder of your comments.

Perhaps you should look up what an ad hominem attack actually is.

I can't believe that I went round and round with Lightspeed only to find out that he doesn't even have a copy of the notes that I was talking about for the last hour.

I assume too much sometimes.

248 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:18:16pm

re: #237 Cineaste

For the record, I did do a complete implementation of a 68030 microcode in a mere 128 lines of code. That's some snazzy bit-twiddling. Enough that I got kudos from Apple at the time for the shortest they'd ever seen.

That being said, it was the slowest piece of crap code you'd ever seen.

But hey, it left over about 900 lines worth of space for everything else you wanted to do with that first kilobyte...

There was some macho coder whose name I can't remember (since I haven't run Windoze for years) who wrote marvelous little machine-code (or maybe assembler) disk utilities for MS-DOS. Even well into the Windoze era, I still used them for disk defragmentation and the like. They were all something like 43 KB in size and did a better job than the fancy-ass stuff you could get for far more money.

Now that's coding.

But I'm happy to run a Mac now and never have to think about things like defragging a disk.

249 Charles Johnson  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:19:58pm

The amount of hatred being directed at me on Twitter from "conservatives" is just awesome. Keep it up, folks!

250 allegro  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:20:01pm

re: #248 Cato the Elder

But I'm happy to run a Mac now and never have to think about things like defragging a disk.

Wow, what do you do for fun then?

(Sorry, my head is exploding over all this coding talk.)

251 Gus  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:20:23pm

re: #245 Walter L. Newton

Here's the link to CRU and their datasets.

You need hadcrut3.txt ...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

and this data format document...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

the main download page is...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

Have you tried these?

[Link: www.cru.uea.ac.uk...]

252 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:21:10pm

re: #249 Charles

The amount of hatred being directed at me on Twitter from "conservatives" is just awesome. Keep it up, folks!

Apparently, hatred is a family value.

253 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:21:59pm

re: #246 wii42

Sorry to be a pest, but isn't HADCRUT3 the 'value-added' dataset, not the raw data?

Nope, see the different versions at...

[Link: hadobs.metoffice.com...]

Even hadcrut2 is not really "raw" anymore since they have amended and modified the reading in the different records over the years, it's that concept of "raw" versus what is being used (hadcrut2.txt) that is the basis of the problem.

But saying that they destroyed to data is incorrect. Saying that it is impossible to show the providence of each data element is true.

They would have to start from scratch, using the available agencies data to create a new "raw" version of what they had years ago.

254 Pepper Fox  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:27:44pm

Zombie Reagan Raised From The Grave To Lead The GOP

[Link: www.theonion.com...]

255 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:30:22pm

re: #253 Walter L. Newton

They would have to start from scratch, using the available agencies data to create a new "raw" version of what they had years ago.

Okay, if I understand correctly, then I'm not going to find any of the original 'raw' data at CRU. Instead of a single link at CRU I need dozens or hundreds of links to various sites around the world to get that 95%. Thanks - stay warm out there in CO.

(Anyone: if my assumption here is wrong and you've got a link for the 95% of the raw data I'd appreciate it - TIA.)

256 allegro  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:31:13pm

I've been sitting here watching the conversation and thinking how interesting it is to view a subject from such a different mindset. Y'all are programmers, so you're looking at data with that eye and picking it apart looking for, I presume, some answer to whatever question you have. Or to support whatever position you have, or hope to achieve.

I'm a wildlife biologist (retired). I have viewed human impact on the environment from that perspective, seeing mostly death and destruction for the past 35 years. Climate change is only just the latest in the carnage. Without question we are experiencing climate change. Is it human influenced? Very likely, as has been supported in hundreds of studies. Even if it isn't, what we are doing to in terms of pollution and trash is devastating and reason enough to say enough.

257 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:32:17pm

re: #254 Pepper Fox

Zombie Reagan Raised From The Grave To Lead The GOP

[Link: www.theonion.com...]

Yes!

*fistpump*

258 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:32:49pm

re: #110 robdouth

I would be surprised if anything racist can be attributed to MM. I check her site out here and there. She's surely whipped up over some of the right wing hysterical causes such as Van Jones being a communist (like that's a crime?).

And she's been on the ACORN expose from day one. But with that the black people in those videos weren't nearly as crazy-acting as the white woman admitting to murder and prostitution and the hispanic guy who hit up on Hannah and offered to help transport underage girls for systematic rape.

Plus take one look at her and it's hard to see her pumping her fist and shouting "White pride. White pride!" and high-fiving her jewish husband. LOL!

259 No. Just, no.  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:32:57pm

re: #257 Racer X

Yes!

*fistpump*

*zombie fist falls off*

260 Red Sea Desjardini Tang  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:34:03pm

I need to take a pee. Will someone watch the thread below for a bit?

261 wrenchwench  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:35:08pm

re: #258 dwells38

I would be surprised if anything racist can be attributed to MM.

Are you familiar with VDARE? Did you know she has posted there for years?

262 JohninLondon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:35:17pm

Useful guest essay at the BBC - one of the authors is a Prof. at the University of East Anglia -

"Show us your working"

[Link: news.bbc.co.uk...]

And for a "Nontroversy", all this is showing no signs of dying a quick death. Investigations at CRU and Penn State, apparently. Meanwhile the leader of the OZ Liberal party is shunted out through disagreements on climate change, and now there is some serious rumbling in the UK Tory Party :

[Link: www.independent.co.uk...]

263 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:37:35pm

re: #260 Naso Tang

I need to take a pee. Will someone watch the thread below for a bit?

You're a bad Lizard. Why aren't you wearing Depends?

264 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:38:12pm

re: #260 Naso Tang

I need to take a pee. Will someone watch the thread below for a bit?

Why, are you afraid someone might say something new and intelligent?

265 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:38:38pm

re: #263 MandyManners

You're a bad Lizard. Why aren't you wearing Depends?

So that's how you do it. ;^)

266 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:40:20pm

re: #263 MandyManners

You're a bad Lizard. Why aren't you wearing Depends?

In bed.

267 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:40:51pm

re: #264 Cato the Elder

something new and intelligent

Too high a standard for coders. Maybe (new XOR intelligent)...

268 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:41:07pm

re: #255 wii42

Okay, if I understand correctly, then I'm not going to find any of the original 'raw' data at CRU. Instead of a single link at CRU I need dozens or hundreds of links to various sites around the world to get that 95%. Thanks - stay warm out there in CO.

(Anyone: if my assumption here is wrong and you've got a link for the 95% of the raw data I'd appreciate it - TIA.)

The original data is at certain different agencies, in dataset they use. Harcrut3 was compiled many years ago from temperature reading that was collected by different sources.

They divided the globe into 5 degree by 5 degree grids, then starting at 1850, for each month, they tried to fill in at least 1 temperature reading for that month for that grid, month after month, year after year. That 5x5 grid is about the size of Nevada.

So, maybe one month they got a reading for a grid from NOAA, and then the next time from some other agency, and many times there was no readings for a grid for any given month. And of course, reading for open ocean grids were practically nonexistent early on.

Over the years, they would amend or modify data in certain grids for certain dates with more accurate data, many times from a different source.

Over the years, they lost the relationship of grid=year=month=agency=location... it's that relationship that they can't providence for many of the grids.

So, the original data is still out there, in the hands of different agencies in different datasets, but hadcrut3 could not be replicated from scratch.

269 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:41:21pm

re: #258 dwells38

I would be surprised if anything racist can be attributed to MM. I check her site out here and there. She's surely whipped up over some of the right wing hysterical causes such as Van Jones being a communist (like that's a crime?).

And she's been on the ACORN expose from day one. But with that the black people in those videos weren't nearly as crazy-acting as the white woman admitting to murder and prostitution and the hispanic guy who hit up on Hannah and offered to help transport underage girls for systematic rape.

Plus take one look at her and it's hard to see her pumping her fist and shouting "White pride. White pride!" and high-fiving her jewish husband. LOL!

well she is what she is and all but she dose have a tendency of race baiting & then falling back on the fact that she isn't white. make your own decisions...

270 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:43:54pm

Just for fun, a picture where you just have to wonder "who one that fight?"

Image: eagle-fox450.jpg

271 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:44:39pm

re: #268 Walter L. Newton

Thanks for the explanation! At first I thought they could run the code 'backwards' to reproduce the raw data from the value-added data, then someone pointed out it's like trying to reconstruct two original numbers from their average - not possible.

272 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:46:34pm

re: #120 Charles


I have found this to be true. My work laptop doesn't like the new video ads here and constantly locks up when I go into the comments. So I cruised around to some right wing sites that I notice you no longer link to out of curiosity to see what was being said. Powerline was one and sure enough they were saying "much" of the original data is lost. Not 2% or 5%. Much of it. And therefore other scientists could never check their work. No clarification that the data was captured in databases

This guy, the one named Paul did at least point out that Phil Jones was not in charge when the data was discarded in the 1980s

This is never mentioned: No data destroyed

273 Quilly Mammoth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:47:29pm

I'm confused. Is all of the raw data available so that independent researchers can replicate the results available? The availability of that is what allows a repeatable experiment. Which is the basis of scientific method. If it can't be repeated it is, by definition, not a provable fact.

That's pretty much the core of this argument. If it can be repeated...non-falsisfiable...then that goes a long way to proving the hypothesis.

Personally I think we should make the whole argument go away by building lots and lots of nukes, but that's just me.

274 The Sanity Inspector  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:47:31pm

Disturbing piece in the Daily Mail about WWII veterans who are sorry they fought for Britain, given the state it's in now.

275 karmic_inquisitor  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:49:55pm

re: #249 Charles

The amount of hatred being directed at me on Twitter from "conservatives" is just awesome. Keep it up, folks!

They are E-stoning the unfaithful monkey

276 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:50:09pm

re: #271 wii42

Thanks for the explanation! At first I thought they could run the code 'backwards' to reproduce the raw data from the value-added data, then someone pointed out it's like trying to reconstruct two original numbers from their average - not possible.

And that's where the confusion comes in where some people are saying they destroyed the data. They didn't destroy anything, you could build the same model from existing data spread among different climate science agencies, but it would not match grid for grid what in the grids in hadcrut3, since over the years hudcrut3 has been tweaked, one way or another. What they can't do is look at a certain grid in hadcrut3 for a certain year and month and tell you where that temperature reading came from. That's what's missing, that link, that relationship.

277 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:50:38pm

re: #268 Walter L. Newton

Over the years, they lost the relationship of grid=year=month=agency=location... it's that relationship that they can't providence for many of the grids.

Oh - and (I think) it's provenance you're looking for (and I'm not sure it's a verb). I got a Kindle as an early Xmas gift last weekend and I love it, not the least because it has a built-in dictionary.
/grammar-nazi mode off

278 Quilly Mammoth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:52:10pm

re: #276 Walter L. Newton

So the result is non-reproduce-able and it all boils down to how the the first data was used. Thanks.

279 albusteve  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:52:13pm

re: #263 MandyManners

You're a bad Lizard. Why aren't you wearing Depends?

I use my catheter...works like a dream

280 wrenchwench  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:52:17pm

re: #270 Cato the Elder

Just for fun, a picture where you just have to wonder "who one that fight?"

[Link: www.baconbabble.com...]

My money's on the eagle.

["one"?!?]

281 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:52:51pm

re: #274 The Sanity Inspector

Disturbing piece in the Daily Mail about WWII veterans who are sorry they fought for Britain, given the state it's in now.

my neighbor who recently passed was a gunner on a B-17 & made it clear to anyone who would listen that this is not the America he fought for... it is what it is.

282 albusteve  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:53:04pm

re: #264 Cato the Elder

Why, are you afraid someone might say something new and intelligent?

Ahahaha!...good one, don't look at me...ha

283 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:53:49pm

re: #273 Quilly Mammoth

I'm confused. Is all of the raw data available so that independent researchers can replicate the results available? The availability of that is what allows a repeatable experiment. Which is the basis of scientific method. If it can't be repeated it is, by definition, not a provable fact.

That's pretty much the core of this argument. If it can be repeated...non-falsisfiable...then that goes a long way to proving the hypothesis.

Personally I think we should make the whole argument go away by building lots and lots of nukes, but that's just me.

See my re: #276 Walter L. Newton CRU says they can, but they haven't proven that to anyone.

284 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:54:15pm

re: #165 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

And whoever wins gets a bust of Tom Snyder topped off with Dan Aykroyd's multi-colored Tom Snyder wig from the old SNL skit.

285 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:55:31pm

re: #278 Quilly Mammoth

So the result is non-reproduce-able and it all boils down to how the the first data was used. Thanks.

Well, other scientist who have used other datasets of temperature readings from other sources say their results show the same results as the results that come out of harcrut3.

286 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:55:37pm

re: #274 The Sanity Inspector

Disturbing piece in the Daily Mail about WWII veterans who are sorry they fought for Britain, given the state it's in now.

The angst just leaps from the page.

287 No. Just, no.  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:56:28pm

re: #274 The Sanity Inspector

Disturbing piece in the Daily Mail about WWII veterans who are sorry they fought for Britain, given the state it's in now.

Yes, but if they had not fought, the world would be a lot less than it is now. There would be no disrespectful youths, because being disrespectful to the fuhrer would get you thrown in jail.

288 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:56:46pm

re: #283 Walter L. Newton

See my re: #276 Walter L. Newton CRU says they can, but they haven't proven that to anyone.

But remember, other scientist who have used other datasets of temperature readings from other sources say their results show the same results as the results that come out of harcrut3.

So some say it's not an issue.

289 Killgore Trout  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:57:31pm

re: #274 The Sanity Inspector

Disturbing piece in the Daily Mail about WWII veterans who are sorry they fought for Britain, given the state it's in now.

I read that one eralier and I think it falls under that category of far right wing bullshit. Buchanan made the same point a few months ago that WWII was not forth fighting. Even Brits like Peter Hitchens (Chris's brother) agreed. Sure old people get grumpy about today's youth but I think that article was exploiting elderly people's statements to advance a very creepy agenda.

290 Killgore Trout  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:58:40pm

re: #287 EmmmieG

Yes, but if they had not fought, the world would be a lot less than it is now. There would be no disrespectful youths, because being disrespectful to the fuhrer would get you thrown in jail.

None of those pesky Jews and gays running around too.
/Fascist

291 No. Just, no.  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 4:59:22pm

re: #290 Killgore Trout

None of those pesky Jews and gays running around too.
/Fascist

Or gipsies. Don't forget Magneto.

292 Quilly Mammoth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:01:23pm

re: #285 Walter L. Newton

But that one, the one from CRU, is the biggie.

It is also the one that the most opposition from biologists come form because it stipulates tht tree ring growth is most affected by temp...and the basis for that has never been released by DRU.

293 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:01:27pm

re: #288 Walter L. Newton

So some say it's not an issue.

It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out. I think it will take a while. Thanks again for the info!

294 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:01:51pm

re: #289 Killgore Trout

I read that one eralier and I think it falls under that category of far right wing bullshit. Buchanan made the same point a few months ago that WWII was not forth fighting. Even Brits like Peter Hitchens (Chris's brother) agreed. Sure old people get grumpy about today's youth but I think that article was exploiting elderly people's statements to advance a very creepy agenda.

really? I kinda thought it was more about the crappy way we treat our vets... but that's just my take.

295 The Hoopster  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:02:18pm

Obama to speak

296 wrenchwench  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:02:24pm

Live coverage of Obama's speech coming up.

297 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:02:47pm

re: #292 Quilly Mammoth

But that one, the one from CRU, is the biggie.

It is also the one that the most opposition from biologists come form because it stipulates tht tree ring growth is most affected by temp...and the basis for that has never been released by DRU.

It's one of many datasets that pro-AGW scientist say verifies the theories.

298 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:03:04pm

re: #274 The Sanity Inspector

Disturbing piece in the Daily Mail about WWII veterans who are sorry they fought for Britain, given the state it's in now.

Interesting.

They feel, in a word that leaps out time and time again, 'betrayed'.

Immigration tops the list of complaints.

'People come here, get everything they ask, for free, laughing at our expense,' was a typical observation.

'We old people struggle on pensions, not knowing how to make ends meet. If I had my time again, would we fight as before? Need you ask?'

Many writers are bewildered and overwhelmed by a multicultural Britain that, they say bitterly, they were never consulted about nor feel comfortable with.

'Our country has been given away to foreigners while we, the generation who fought for freedom, are having to sell our homes for care and are being refused medical services because incomers come first.'

299 JohninLondon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:03:20pm

re: #289 Killgore Trout

I read that one eralier and I think it falls under that category of far right wing bullshit. Buchanan made the same point a few months ago that WWII was not forth fighting. Even Brits like Peter Hitchens (Chris's brother) agreed. Sure old people get grumpy about today's youth but I think that article was exploiting elderly people's statements to advance a very creepy agenda.

You obviously don't know the UK much.

300 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:03:58pm

re: #293 wii42

It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out. I think it will take a while. Thanks again for the info!

And really, keep googling terms like CRU, Hadcrut3, FOIA, problems together, you will find a number of websites that deal with the whole story, told better than I can.

301 MandyManners  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:04:03pm

re: #294 brookly red

really? I kinda thought it was more about the crappy way we treat our vets... but that's just my take.

That's how I read it.

302 Quilly Mammoth  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:04:52pm

re: #297 Walter L. Newton

It's one of many datasets that pro-AGW scientist say verifies the theories.

No, it is the _primary_ one by far. It is the support of the Hockey Stick. Saying it is one of many is disingenuous at best.

303 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:05:03pm

re: #287 EmmmieG

Yes, but if they had not fought, the world would be a lot less than it is now. There would be no disrespectful youths, because being disrespectful to the fuhrer would get you thrown in jail.

Absolutely!

If they think it is bad now, imagine what it would have been like under Hitler

304 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:06:02pm

Obama is now a war monger!

305 No. Just, no.  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:06:12pm

re: #303 Racer X

Absolutely!

If they think it is bad now, imagine what it would have been like under Hitler

Life would be orderly. Very, very orderly.

Punctuated by gut-churning paranoid fear.

No thanks. I'll take the blue-haired kids smoking in front of the grocery store.

306 brookly red  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:06:15pm

re: #301 MandyManners

That's how I read it.

yeah well some people politicize everything...

307 Fenway_Nation  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:07:44pm

re: #304 Racer X

Obama is now a war monger!

If Code Pink, International ANSWER and Micheal Moore are bitching, then you know he's doing the right thing.

308 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:07:48pm

Did he just call Iraq a success?

309 TheMatrix31  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:08:10pm

"While we've acheived hard-earned milestones in Iraq..."

...Barack, you've done NOTHING to contribute to those hard-earned milestones. NOTHING.

310 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:08:15pm

re: #302 Quilly Mammoth

No, it is the _primary_ one by far. It is the support of the Hockey Stick. Saying it is one of many is disingenuous at best.

No, according the the pro-agw scientist, there are other datasets that will create the "hockey stick" graph.

I don't argue the actual pro/con AGW issues, that science is way over my head, I have been only talking about how this data was modeled and compiled, just the database development aspect of this subject.

311 obdicut  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:08:20pm

re: #302 Quilly Mammoth

No, it is the _primary_ one by far. It is the support of the Hockey Stick. Saying it is one of many is disingenuous at best.

But that's simply not true. All of the major five models also display the 'hockey stick', because it's real.

Again: CCSM, open source, open data.

http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/

312 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:09:44pm

re: #309 TheMatrix31

"While we've acheived hard-earned milestones in Iraq..."

...Barack, you've done NOTHING to contribute to those hard-earned milestones. NOTHING.

Heh. Let him spew that nonsense. I love it.

313 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:10:54pm

re: #302 Quilly Mammoth

No, it is the _primary_ one by far. It is the support of the Hockey Stick. Saying it is one of many is disingenuous at best.

I'm not saying it, other scientist are saying it, I was just repeating facts. I haven't looked into the other datasets, that's not my issue.

314 Fenway_Nation  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:11:14pm

re: #308 Racer X

re: #309 TheMatrix31


"Hard-earned milestones that I voted against when my predecessor was in office..."

What? He didn't say that?

315 TheMatrix31  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:11:27pm

I'm going to call him Windex from now on. "Let me be clear"

316 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:12:01pm

re: #312 Racer X

Heh. Let him spew that nonsense. I love it.

Oh for crying out loud, it's "we" as Americans. I don't see how else he could describe it.

317 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:12:40pm

re: #311 obdicut

But that's simply not true. All of the major five models also display the 'hockey stick', because it's real.

Again: CCSM, open source, open data.

http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/

From what I read, you are correct. Whether those other models are valid data models, I don't know, I haven't looked into them. I keep saying that I am not currently concerned with pro/con AGW issues, I'm looking at one dataset (hadcrut3) and it's history, that's it, and I am looking at that dataset with the eyes of a database developer and programmer, not an AGW scientist.

318 TheMatrix31  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:13:02pm

Blame-Bush-Blame-Bush-Blame-Bush

319 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:13:21pm

re: #235 JohninLondon

Actually since you menioned this several times I would like to comment in defense of dogs, my dogs are rather neat with their breakfasts.

And it's gone in about 20 seconds anyway.

Plus it looks just like their dinner. Which also disappears in 20 seconds with much licking of their entire face with a large pink tongue. Sometimes each others!

320 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:13:30pm

re: #316 avanti

Oh for crying out loud, it's "we" as Americans. I don't see how else he could describe it.

re: #314 Fenway_Nation

re: #309 TheMatrix31

"Hard-earned milestones that I voted against when my predecessor was in office..."

What? He didn't say that?

321 Fenway_Nation  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:13:33pm

re: #318 TheMatrix31

I have to say, the Lars Larson voice-over makes the speech a tad more palletable.

322 Killgore Trout  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:13:53pm

re: #299 JohninLondon

You obviously don't know the UK much.

I know enough to raise doubts when the same paper repeatedly pushes the same morally abhorrent views as Pat Buchanan that it's probably something I don't want to consider. Here's Peter Hitchens Mail Online article praising Buchanan's view that fascism wasn't worth fighting.

323 TheMatrix31  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:14:07pm

re: #316 avanti

"While our military has achieved hard-earned milestones in Iraq..."

324 Jeff In Ohio  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:14:17pm

re: #281 brookly red

my neighbor who recently passed was a gunner on a B-17 & made it clear to anyone who would listen that this is not the America he fought for... it is what it is.

My father was a buck private and battalion scout in the Marines and slogged through the Pacific Theater from 1942 - till 1945 says he's damned proud of this America.

325 austin_blue  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:14:49pm

re: #220 Lightspeed

you mean, "talking down" to me about this. As is your usual style.

Walter has a valid point. By admitting that you haven't read the document, you admit that you are just mimicking cherry picked passages others have identified. You can't have a reasonable discussion from a position of such ignorance.

You have been hoisted upon your own petard...

326 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:15:12pm

re: #320 Racer X

I said he opposed the war, as many did, he can do that while thanking the troops for their success.

327 Fenway_Nation  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:15:52pm

He left out Madrid...

328 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:15:57pm

re: #311 obdicut

Hey - I've got a question for you. I saw you asking someone the other day how old some creationist scientist thought the earth was. Presumably you were looking for 6k years or so. So I started wondering how far back these various climate models try to model climate. I've seen only a couple thousand years tops, but then I haven't looked at much.
So my question is - how far back do these various climate model regimes go? Do they try to project backwards farther than 6k years?

329 Fenway_Nation  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:16:35pm

re: #327 Fenway_Nation


Not that there was a short list of places AQ attacked...

330 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:16:57pm

re: #326 avanti

I said he opposed the war, as many did, he can do that while thanking the troops for their success.

I have no problem with what he is saying and doing tonight. Good for you Mr. President!

331 austin_blue  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:17:37pm

re: #328 wii42

Hey - I've got a question for you. I saw you asking someone the other day how old some creationist scientist thought the earth was. Presumably you were looking for 6k years or so. So I started wondering how far back these various climate models try to model climate. I've seen only a couple thousand years tops, but then I haven't looked at much.
So my question is - how far back do these various climate model regimes go? Do they try to project backwards farther than 6k years?

Ice cores back several million years. They have reams of data.

332 TheMatrix31  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:18:06pm

Timetables are great ideas.

/

333 Racer X  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:18:09pm

Whoa!

Did he just announce an exit date?

334 avanti  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:18:43pm

re: #328 wii42

Hey - I've got a question for you. I saw you asking someone the other day how old some creationist scientist thought the earth was. Presumably you were looking for 6k years or so. So I started wondering how far back these various climate models try to model climate. I've seen only a couple thousand years tops, but then I haven't looked at much.
So my question is - how far back do these various climate model regimes go? Do they try to project backwards farther than 6k years?

Yes, but of course not as accurately. We can gage the earth temperatures and C02 levels back much further.

335 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:19:05pm

re: #331 austin_blue

Okay, but I'm asking about the various climate modelling regimes (like CRU's). Do they have hockey stick graphs with the shaft of the hockey stick projecting back millions of years?

336 austin_blue  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:20:30pm

re: #335 wii42

Okay, but I'm asking about the various climate modelling regimes (like CRU's). Do they have hockey stick graphs with the shaft of the hockey stick projecting back millions of years?

They certainly have solid CO2 data going back that far.

337 Walter L. Newton  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:20:43pm

re: #325 austin_blue

Walter has a valid point. By admitting that you haven't read the document, you admit that you are just mimicking cherry picked passages others have identified. You can't have a reasonable discussion from a position of such ignorance.

You have been hoisted upon your own petard...

Had to up ding you... shit... we can't agree too often, people will start to talk.

338 TheMatrix31  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:20:50pm

re: #333 Racer X

Sounds like it.

339 webevintage  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:21:26pm

Charles has put up a thread for the speech.

340 obdicut  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:22:09pm

re: #328 wii42

Some do. Some do paleoclimatology. But the importance of the age of the earth is more that much of the data for climatology comes from the geological record, especially about CO2 stats.

There's a difference between "we can derive what the CO2 saturation was and the temperature" and "we can model the whole climate".

CCSM Paleoclimate working groups

Academics are surprisingly responsive to thoughtful, polite emails requesting information. I'd give those contacts there a try if you want to know a good working paleoclimate model.

341 Fenway_Nation  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:22:25pm

re: #332 TheMatrix31

re: #333 Racer X

Say what?

342 Wozza Matter?  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:22:27pm

re: #289 Killgore Trout

nail meet head. head meet nail.

the only one person i have ever heard express that view aloud was a very elderly gentleman - and one who did not have a track record of - shall we put it politely - "tolerance".

343 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:22:39pm

re: #261 wrenchwench

No I've never heard of it. I take it they disprove my point? It's too bad.
What are they the into: deporting muslims?, Not so subtle veiled racism toward blacks? Or the old standby: Gays are OK but I wouldn't let them near my kids?

344 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:22:45pm

re: #336 austin_blue

They certainly have solid CO2 data going back that far.

From what? And how do they match it to temperature? (50 words or less ;)

345 BruceKelly  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:25:52pm

re: #103 Charles

Done

346 wrenchwench  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:26:15pm

re: #343 dwells38

No I've never heard of it. I take it they disprove my point? It's too bad.
What are they the into: deporting muslims?, Not so subtle veiled racism toward blacks? Or the old standby: Gays are OK but I wouldn't let them near my kids?

All of the above, except maybe the "OK" part.

347 austin_blue  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:26:41pm

re: #344 wii42

From what? And how do they match it to temperature? (50 words or less ;)

Ice cores. Plant pollens (plant type determines pollen type. Temperature determines plant type and distribution.)

Here:

[Link: www.realclimate.org...]

348 JohninLondon  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:28:28pm

re: #322 Killgore Trout

I know enough to raise doubts when the same paper repeatedly pushes the same morally abhorrent views as Pat Buchanan that it's probably something I don't want to consider. Here's Peter Hitchens Mail Online article praising Buchanan's view that fascism wasn't worth fighting.

Like I said - you obviously don't know the UK much.

Those vets' views were drawn from a book compiled by a fairly young man who set out to discover how people felt. The Daily Mail was not the only paper to cover the story. Tarring them with some sort of "they sound like Peter Hitchens/Pat Buchanan" is cheap.

I hear WW2 survivors commenting like that every week here.

349 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:30:37pm

re: #340 obdicut

There's a difference between "we can derive what the CO2 saturation was and the temperature" and "we can model the whole climate".

That's an understatement even I can appreciate. Thanks for the info. I think it was probably a dumb question I asked and that most of the climate modelling fu for any of the models is naturally biased toward modelling the last few, relatively speaking, years, and that any modelling for millions of years ago is probably pretty much an asymptotic boundary condition for the model. Anyway, thanks!

350 wii42  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:31:15pm

re: #347 austin_blue

Thank you!

351 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:31:35pm

re: #330 Racer X

I have no problem with what he is saying and doing tonight. Good for you Mr. President!

Right! Most of what he says seems to have a very short shelf-life. But tonight at least he's announcing some real action. 30,000 troops in a condensed period. He's gonna take heat for that.

352 dwells38  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:38:43pm

re: #346 wrenchwench

Oh jeez. Or maybe I should say "Oh my!" a la Dorothy in the Wiz of Oz.

353 BruceKelly  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:42:49pm

re: #263 MandyManners

You're a bad Lizard. Why aren't you wearing Depends?

That's so funny. It reminds me of when I worked offshore and had to make monster road trips once a month from Denver, CO to Lafayette LA.

354 Red Sea Desjardini Tang  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 5:52:36pm

re: #264 Cato the Elder

Why, are you afraid someone might say something new and intelligent?

Wow, I feel better now. That one was as long as a presidential speech.

No. I'm afraid someone will get away with pretending to say something new and intelligent.

355 Cato the Elder  Tue, Dec 1, 2009 6:07:50pm

re: #280 wrenchwench

My money's on the eagle.

["one"?!?]

GoodGodI'vebeeninfectedwiththehomonymvirussomebodycalladoctor!!!1!

My money's on the eagle getting the fox about twenty yards up in the air, max (I mean, look at the probable weight ratio!), before the fox turns around and bites the eagle on the ass, causing both to tumble to the ground. Then it's a tossup.

Of course, both later die of infection, assuming they do the smart thing and back off.

Nature is not a friendly goddess.

356 SH1T My Conscience Says  Wed, Dec 2, 2009 7:55:15pm

re: #149 Walter L. Newton

You do not have enough information in "Harry's" document to make the statement you just made. I am a programmer, database developer and analyst and I have read ALL OF HARRY'S DOCUMENT, and I couldn't make the statement you made in a thousand years.

What the hell is your qualifications to suggest what you are suggesting?

Yes, I can rightly say that procedures and version control and stuff like that at CRU was sloppy, because "Harry" point that out. But there is no way to know from his notes if the computer models were wrong.

You are way off base.

Although I can no longer consider myself a programmer, I do have a B.Sc. in CS and was a programmer for 10 years.

Everything you said in this post is accurate and obvious. The Climategate PR bunch are really stretching if they think Harry's comments are a smoking,... anything.

357 SH1T My Conscience Says  Wed, Dec 2, 2009 7:59:12pm

re: #152 Lightspeed

Sloppiness in science (and computer code) can lead to an invalid result. It may not be intentional, but that remains to be seen.

Since 'sloppy code' can be a result of debugging, a part of which is making sure the output is correct, sloppy code is frequently just sloppy code.

358 SH1T My Conscience Says  Wed, Dec 2, 2009 8:28:58pm

re: #244 Charles

Ah, coding reminiscences.

I wrote several very large utility applications for the Atari ST/TT in pure 680x0 assembly language, back in the day. One of them replaced all of the OS's graphics routines with highly optimized machine code (unroll those loops, baby) and resulted in massive speedups for screen updates. Another was a complete development shell that used undocumented hooks in TOS (the Atari OS) to replace the built-in desktop. Good times.

I hate to admit it but my first foray into programming was in Action!.


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