SciAm: Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense

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Scientific American has an excellent article debunking seven of the main climate change denial talking points promoted by people like James Inhofe: Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense.

The introduction to the article draws the distinction between honest skeptics and deniers, a topic that’s frequently raised in our threads about climate change:

On November 18, with the United Nations Global Warming Conference in Copenhagen fast approaching, U.S. Sen. James R. Inhofe (R–Okla.) took the floor of the Senate and proclaimed 2009 to be “The Year of the Skeptic.” Had the senator’s speech marked a new commitment to dispassionate, rational inquiry, a respect for scientific thought and a well-grounded doubt in ghosts, astrology, creationism and homeopathy, it might have been cause for cheer. But Inhofe had a more narrow definition of skeptic in mind: he meant “standing up and exposing the science, the costs and the hysteria behind global warming alarmism.”

Within the community of scientists and others concerned about anthropogenic climate change, those whom Inhofe calls skeptics are more commonly termed contrarians, naysayers and denialists. Not everyone who questions climate change science fits that description, of course—some people are genuinely unaware of the facts or honestly disagree about their interpretation. What distinguishes the true naysayers is an unwavering dedication to denying the need for action on the problem, often with weak and long-disproved arguments about supposed weaknesses in the science behind global warming.

What follows is only a partial list of the contrarians’ bad arguments and some brief rebuttals of them.

Read the whole thing. There’s a lot of good information about the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, the “hockey stick” graph, the influence of the sun on global warming, and the false claim that global warming “stopped a decade ago.”

(The comments for the article are overflowing with deniers and contrarians, spouting the very talking points the article debunks, of course.)

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141 comments
1 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:06:38am

Listen, I'd agree with you, if only you'd share the real data.

///

2 The Sanity Inspector  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:07:11am

That article does look like a keeper.

3 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:08:12am

Sci Am has good cred. Glad to see this. AP story- Not sure if it is good news or not... The Investigation into the hack.
On Brietbart, but it is an AP story.
[Link: www.breitbart.com...]

4 RogueOne  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:10:00am

I haven't read it yet but they did better than the HuffPo piece yesterday. They had the 7 top myths re: climate gate but only listed 6. This piece at least has all 7 they promised us.

[Link: www.huffingtonpost.com...]

5 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:11:41am

Good luck with finding dispassionate, rational inquiry where money and politics is concerned. Even when good data is published too many interested parties *cough* algore *cough * ExxonMobile *cough* China *cough* the UN *cough* are quickly trying to find out how they can manipulate it to make money or gain power.

6 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:12:59am

re: #5 DaddyG

Good luck with finding dispassionate, rational inquiry where money and politics is concerned. Even when good data is published too many interested parties *cough* algore *cough * ExxonMobile *cough* China *cough* the UN *cough* are quickly trying to find out how they can manipulate it to make money or gain power.

So you are saying the data is fake?

7 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:15:28am

re: #6 Cineaste

So you are saying the data is fake?

So are you saying you can't read my post?

Of course it is not fake- and neither is the effect of man's use of fossil fuels on the climate.

Now let's talk about why so many people are cynical when scientists are breaking off into camps depending on who funds their research and which politicians are using it to further money laundering schemes.

8 AK-47%  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:18:10am

A criminal conspiracy which must be rooted out and beat to death with its own hockey stick...

/

(we need a hockey-stick shaped AGW sarc tag for posts like this...)

9 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:18:30am

This months National Geographic has an excellent article that illustrates the carbon emmission issue in an easy to understand analogy. IMO this kind of approach is going to reach a lot more people than debates over who has the right data.

Carbon Bath

10 JoyousMN  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:18:51am

Thanks so much for this. I've had a difficult enough time understanding (sic) the global warming issue. Then you talk to someone and they start spouting off these bizarre theories and I'm never sure where to go. (Other than out the door).

On a side note, I have a stupid question and wondered if someone could help me. At T'giving my bro-in-law and I started talking politics. Big mistake, or course, but isn't it a Holiday tradition right up there with the Lions getting beaten? Anyway, he's right, I'm left. He starts talking about Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton and I cannot figure out for the life of me why these two guys matter. I know who they are, I know that at one time they might have had some influence on the Democratic Party, but SERIOUSLY...they are not on anyone's radar screen that I know of.

Can someone tell me, is this a standard Beck/Rush line, or is my BOL just really dated? Thanks!

11 Sharmuta  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:20:35am
Claim 1: Anthropogenic CO2 can't be changing climate, because CO2 is only a trace gas in the atmosphere and the amount produced by humans is dwarfed by the amount from volcanoes and other natural sources. Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas, so changes in CO2 are irrelevant.

Although CO2 makes up only 0.04 percent of the atmosphere, that small number says nothing about its significance in climate dynamics. Even at that low concentration, CO2 absorbs infrared radiation and acts as a greenhouse gas, as physicist John Tyndall demonstrated in 1859. The chemist Svante Arrhenius went further in 1896 by estimating the impact of CO2 on the climate; after painstaking hand calculations he concluded that doubling its concentration might cause almost 6 degrees Celsius of warming—an answer not much out of line with recent, far more rigorous computations.

Over 100 years ago, increased CO2 was linked to climate warming. This isn't some new theory plucked out of nowhere to subjugate the human race with a sinister power grab. There is a long history involved, which is one of the reasons I continue to link to this:

The Discovery of Global Warming

The introduction gives a nice overview of the history involved, and there is tons more information linked on the home page for anyone ready to look at the science for themselves.

12 AK-47%  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:20:47am

Jackson and Sharpton still command loyal minority followings, but the farther they try to associate themselves with the Democratic mainstream, the more they alienate the middle.

A lesson the Republicans are still learning with their Palins, Bachmans and Becks.

13 Walter L. Newton  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:21:18am

re: #10 JoyousMN

Thanks so much for this. I've had a difficult enough time understanding (sic) the global warming issue. Then you talk to someone and they start spouting off these bizarre theories and I'm never sure where to go. (Other than out the door).

On a side note, I have a stupid question and wondered if someone could help me. At T'giving my bro-in-law and I started talking politics. Big mistake, or course, but isn't it a Holiday tradition right up there with the Lions getting beaten? Anyway, he's right, I'm left. He starts talking about Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton and I cannot figure out for the life of me why these two guys matter. I know who they are, I know that at one time they might have had some influence on the Democratic Party, but SERIOUSLY...they are not on anyone's radar screen that I know of.

Can someone tell me, is this a standard Beck/Rush line, or is my BOL just really dated? Thanks!

Try not going off topic so soon on a thread. IMO.

14 J.S.  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:21:25am

re: #3 Rightwingconspirator

hmmm...So, they've appointed a civil servant to lead the investigation? bah, humbug...(I was expecting an independent panel of scientists or at least someone's who's in the field -- ie, someone who's familiar with scientific research methodologies, etc.)

15 Dynomite  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:22:13am

re: #10 JoyousMN

Thanks so much for this. I've had a difficult enough time understanding (sic) the global warming issue. Then you talk to someone and they start spouting off these bizarre theories and I'm never sure where to go. (Other than out the door).

On a side note, I have a stupid question and wondered if someone could help me. At T'giving my bro-in-law and I started talking politics. Big mistake, or course, but isn't it a Holiday tradition right up there with the Lions getting beaten? Anyway, he's right, I'm left. He starts talking about Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton and I cannot figure out for the life of me why these two guys matter. I know who they are, I know that at one time they might have had some influence on the Democratic Party, but SERIOUSLY...they are not on anyone's radar screen that I know of.

Can someone tell me, is this a standard Beck/Rush line, or is my BOL just really dated? Thanks!

Just a nice racial boogeyman. Neither of them are relevant, nor have they been for quite a while.

16 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:22:22am

re: #8 ralphieboy

A criminal conspiracy which must be rooted out and beat to death with its own hockey stick...

/

(we need a hockey-stick shaped AGW sarc tag for posts like this...)

How's this:

___/

:)

17 SanFranciscoZionist  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:22:27am

re: #10 JoyousMN

Thanks so much for this. I've had a difficult enough time understanding (sic) the global warming issue. Then you talk to someone and they start spouting off these bizarre theories and I'm never sure where to go. (Other than out the door).

On a side note, I have a stupid question and wondered if someone could help me. At T'giving my bro-in-law and I started talking politics. Big mistake, or course, but isn't it a Holiday tradition right up there with the Lions getting beaten? Anyway, he's right, I'm left. He starts talking about Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton and I cannot figure out for the life of me why these two guys matter. I know who they are, I know that at one time they might have had some influence on the Democratic Party, but SERIOUSLY...they are not on anyone's radar screen that I know of.

Can someone tell me, is this a standard Beck/Rush line, or is my BOL just really dated? Thanks!

He's pretty dated. That said, Jackson and Sharpton are infuriating, so it's not surprising that they continue to be good people to point at.

18 darthstar  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:22:29am

re: #8 ralphieboy

A criminal conspiracy which must be rooted out and beat to death with its own hockey stick...

/

(we need a hockey-stick shaped AGW sarc tag for posts like this...)

__/

19 darthstar  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:23:05am

re: #16 Cineaste

Damn...your hockey-stick is longer than mine...now I'll need to call Dr. Phil.

20 abolitionist  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:23:17am

re: #8 ralphieboy

A criminal conspiracy which must be rooted out and beat to death with its own hockey stick...

/

(we need a hockey-stick shaped AGW sarc tag for posts like this...)

_/

21 Kragar  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:24:16am

re: #19 darthstar

Damn...your hockey-stick is longer than mine...now I'll need to call Dr. Phil.

I'll call you a waaah-mbulance.

22 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:24:38am

re: #11 Sharmuta

Over 100 years ago, increased CO2 was linked to climate warming. This isn't some new theory plucked out of nowhere to subjugate the human race with a sinister power grab. There is a long history involved, which is one of the reasons I continue to link to this:

The Discovery of Global Warming

The introduction gives a nice overview of the history involved, and there is tons more information linked on the home page for anyone ready to look at the science for themselves.

It's also worth noting, in a very interesting foonote, that 1859 also was the year Darwin published On The Origin of Species!

23 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:24:41am

You call that a hockey stick?

___// =

Now that is a hockey stick! (the puck is a bonus)

24 elizajane  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:24:54am

Really useful article with great documentation. Perhaps the commenters were unable to recognize that all the little blue words in the text were links to the original research? Or just entirely unable to read?
(Hi, I'm one of the newbies!)

25 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:25:05am

re: #22 Cineaste

It's also worth noting, in a very interesting foonote, that 1859 also was the year Darwin published On The Origin of Species!


Satan begone!! ___/

26 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:26:08am

re: #19 darthstar

Damn...your hockey-stick is longer than mine...now I'll need to call Dr. Phil.

well look at little abolitionists... :)

27 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:26:37am

re: #23 DaddyG

You call that a hockey stick?

___// =

Now that is a hockey stick! (the puck is a bonus)


Hey! LGF shrunk my handle!

28 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:27:19am

re: #25 DaddyG

Satan begone!! ___/

Funny how big moments in history coincide like that. 1492 was the year Columbus set out from Spain and discovered America. It was also the year that the Inquisition began.

29 Kragar  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:27:38am

re: #22 Cineaste

It's also worth noting, in a very interesting foonote, that 1859 also was the year Darwin published On The Origin of Species!

THOSE SNEAKY BASTARDS! You know what this means?

30 Jeff In Ohio  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:28:24am

re: #29 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

...the conspiracy is as old as it is deep
_/

31 Only The Lurker Knows  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:28:27am

"It is virtually impossible to disprove accusations of giant global conspiracies to those already convinced of them (can anyone prove that the Freemasons and the Roswell aliens aren't involved, too?)"


_/ Dang, no wonder nobody can properly interpret the data. It's in Denebian

32 Sharmuta  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:29:01am

re: #29 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

THOSE SNEAKY BASTARDS! You know what this means?

Those damned Darwinists are providing cover for physicists! Oh the humanity!

33 Idle Drifter  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:29:41am

Hockey is reason enough to figure out how to stop or severely mitigate adverse global climate change.

34 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:30:00am

re: #31 Bubblehead II

"It is virtually impossible to disprove accusations of giant global conspiracies to those already convinced of them (can anyone prove that the Freemasons and the Roswell aliens aren't involved, too?)"

_/ Dang, no wonder nobody can properly interpret the data. It's in Denebian

Well I thought it was the aliens who shot JFK on behalf of the freemason to forward a secularist agenda of denying global warming. Prove that I'm wrong people, PROVE IT!

___/

35 Sharmuta  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:30:53am

re: #22 Cineaste

It's also worth noting, in a very interesting foonote, that 1859 also was the year Darwin published On The Origin of Species!

I think it was just the other day when someone suggested there was more evidence for evolution than there was for AGW. I'll remember this nugget the next time someone tried that talking point again. Thanks.

36 Kragar  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:32:14am

re: #32 Sharmuta

Those damned Darwinists are providing cover for physicists! Oh the humanity!

It was all a smoke screen to cover up the Carrington Event. And we all fell for it.

37 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:32:59am

Serious question...

Is there any research based consensus into how much of the excess carbon in the atmosphere is man made (fossil fuels, burning forests, etc.) vs. naturally caused (volcanos, decomposing plant materials, etc.)?

38 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:34:08am

re: #36 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

It was all a smoke screen to cover up the Carrington Event. And we all fell for it.

That was quite disgusting. I'll never see Kung Fu reruns the same way again. Oh! Carrington not Carradine... /

39 sattv4u2  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:34:16am

the influence of the sun on global warming,

The sun influences GW?

And here all this time I thought it was just my Ford Explorer and my extensive Christmas Light display!!

//

40 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:35:53am

re: #37 DaddyG

Serious question...

Is there any research based consensus into how much of the excess carbon in the atmosphere is man made (fossil fuels, burning forests, etc.) vs. naturally caused (volcanos, decomposing plant materials, etc.)?

There is all the data under Point 1. Is there something not addressed there?

41 sattv4u2  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:36:21am

re: #37 DaddyG

Serious question...

Is there any research based consensus into how much of the excess carbon in the atmosphere is man made (fossil fuels, burning forests, etc.) vs. naturally caused (volcanos, decomposing plant materials, etc.)?

Cow flatulance,,, don't forget the cow flatutulance!!
/

42 Jeff In Ohio  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:36:24am

In 1859, 2 scientists would meet in secret in a dark, English opium den. While holding hands, kissing and drawing on their pipes, they would hatch the plot to bring down Christianity and install a worldwide homosexual dictatorship based around decade old writings of their friend and confidant, Karl Marx and the American poet, Walt Whitman.

Oh, the humanity!
_/

43 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:37:25am

re: #35 Sharmuta

I think it was just the other day when someone suggested there was more evidence for evolution than there was for AGW. I'll remember this nugget the next time someone tried that talking point again. Thanks.

I think in that exact thread I pointed out that the theories were about the same age.

44 Jeff In Ohio  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:38:21am

re: #41 sattv4u2

It's the burps you got to worry about, not the farts.

45 Only The Lurker Knows  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:38:46am

re: #37 DaddyG

"Contrary to the contrarians, human activity is by far the largest contributor to the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, anthropogenic CO2 amounts to about 30 billion tons annually—more than 130 times as much as volcanoes produce."

Page 1 of the Linked article.

46 sattv4u2  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:42:27am

re: #44 Jeff In Ohio

It's the burps you got to worry about, not the farts.

Wrong end again ,, DAMN!

47 Cato the Elder  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:42:38am

Coming soon, I hope: Seven Answers to Climate Hysteria Peddlers.

48 Idle Drifter  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:42:51am

re: #42 Jeff In Ohio

In 1859, 2 scientists would meet in secret in a dark, English opium den. While holding hands, kissing and drawing on their pipes, they would hatch the plot to bring down Christianity and install a worldwide homosexual dictatorship based around decade old writings of their friend and confidant, Karl Marx and the American poet, Walt Whitman.

Oh, the humanity!
_/

That's as dark a story as Oliver Stone's documentary on the JFK assassination.
___/

49 Ojoe  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:44:01am

From the article:

and his model does not explain (as greenhouse explanations do) some of the observed patterns in how the world is getting warmer (such as that more of the warming occurs at night).

My bold. I like that part.

50 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:46:41am

re: #40 Cineaste

There is all the data under Point 1. Is there something not addressed there?


I read that and understand that there is additional carbon being produced that the biosphere cannot absorb due to human activities (primarily burning of fossil fuels and deforestation). Any human generated carbon is surplus and making the issue worse.

What I don't know is what percentage of the atmospheric carbon is naturally occuring vs. man made. Are we a huge part of the surplus or is our activity on top of an already existing surplus?

The reason I'd like to know that is because it has implications about what activities humans should prioritize as important to curbing the problems. Short of being neo-luddites is it better to concentrate on alternate fuels, neclear power, more productive farm stocks to mitigate deforestation, ect?

If we aren't careful we could end up making the problem worse like in Brazil where we are chewing up forest land to grow biomass to make fuel and driving up food costs to boot.

51 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:49:29am

re: #45 Bubblehead II

"Contrary to the contrarians, human activity is by far the largest contributor to the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, anthropogenic CO2 amounts to about 30 billion tons annually—more than 130 times as much as volcanoes produce."

Page 1 of the Linked article.


Right- that is humans are the primary contributor to the increase- what percentage of all CO2 is human produced (or is it the same number as they are referring too, just poorly phrased) and what activities specifically generate the most is what I was looking for.

52 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:50:44am

New thread time- I guess we leave the pickings of this discussion to the flouncing trolls...

53 carefulnow  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:51:30am

I have printed this article out for my dear brother, who does not have a computer or cable and instead relies on radio and tv for his news. Thank you, Charles.

54 Gearhead  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:51:49am

Great article.

Also another interesting looking one (OT for this thread, though): The Psychological Differences in the U.S.'s Red-Blue Divide.

55 tardis  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:51:59am

Thanks, this is a great article on the the climate.

Fundamentally, contrarians who have resisted the abundant evidence that supports warming should not be too quick to leap on evidence that only hints at the opposite.

I think this quote holds true and needs to apply in both directions.

56 RRFan  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:52:43am

I don't know how to tell you this but you are not smart enough or have enough 'good' data to prove or disprove global warming.

There is a positive feedback mechanism (probably many) that maintain the earth's temperature. Some of these mechanisms are known, less are understood and some are unknown.

I know this because we have been here for hundreds of thousands of years (before CO2 was discovered!).

As one of my high school teachers said: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

And don't try to convince me that you really do know what is going to happen. I have seen this before (global cooling in the 70s, etc.) and know better.

57 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:57:32am

re: #50 DaddyG

Fromt he article:

True, 95 percent of the releases of CO2 to the atmosphere are natural, but natural processes such as plant growth and absorption into the oceans pull the gas back out of the atmosphere and almost precisely offset them, leaving the human additions as a net surplus. Moreover, several sets of experimental measurements, including analyses of the shifting ratio of carbon isotopes in the air, further confirm that fossil-fuel burning and deforestation are the primary reasons that CO2 levels have risen 35 percent since 1832, from 284 parts per million (ppm) to 388 ppm—a remarkable jump to the highest levels seen in millions of years.

58 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:02:00am

re: #56 RRFan

I have seen this before (global cooling in the 70s, etc.) and know better.

There was no widespread publication or consensus about global cooling.

But Thomas Peterson of the National Climatic Data Center surveyed dozens of peer-reviewed scientific articles from 1965 to 1979 and found that only seven supported global cooling, while 44 predicted warming. Peterson says 20 others were neutral in their assessments of climate trends.

The study reports, "There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age.

"A review of the literature suggests that, to the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking about the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales."

"I was surprised that global warming was so dominant in the peer-reviewed literature of the time," says Peterson, who was also a contributor to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report.

59 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:07:21am

re: #57 Cineaste

Fromt he article:

Ugh! I missed the first sentence. Scanning too quickly. Thanks!

So the 5% we are spewing is kind of a tipping point amount that accounts for a huge increase in the surplus amount the bisophere cannot absorb. Am I reading that right?

60 acacia  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:08:59am

Good article but not a mind changer. Some of the arguments are weaker than others. The last argument is the weakest of all because it advances a "policy" position, not a scientific observation. To me, a scientist is in no better position than anyone else when it comes to deciding what if anything to do. A scientist could tell us that all traffic deaths could be stopped by eliminating cars. True, but don't we the people have the choice in how to approach a problem. Risk benefit analyses are inherently political which is why this has become a political and not a scientific issue. The scientists should concentrate on the facts in a reasoned and dispassionate manner. The people are then free to argue vociferously one way or the other. It bothers me that the magazine defines a "true denier" as one who opposes action. Again, the magazine is mixing apples and oranges. "Action," (which the magazine defines specifically as global emission agreemenst) has nothing to do with determining scientific facts. Interestingly, I am aware of no hard data on what specific policy decisions will, with reasonable certainty, result in what specific temperature changes. In other words, if it's already too late, why are we closing the barn door when the horses are out. The focus then should be on catching the horses. That is why there needs to be much more scientific analysis on differentiated "action."

61 Jeff In Ohio  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:09:57am

re: #56 RRFan

I don't know how to tell you this but ...

You just had to anyway?

62 acacia  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:15:58am

Another weak argument is that 95% emissions of CO2 are from "natural" causes and the other 5% from humans. We're not "natural"? The 95% is then supposedly absorbed in a one-for-one exchange with plants, etc. I don't think a plant takes in only the "natural" CO2 but spits out the "unnatural" human created CO2. If anything, that 95/5 ratio is an encouraging fact because it seems that there are many unexplored potential solutions by decreasing in the 95 category or increasing absorbsion. Again, by creating a natural/unnatural distinction, the magazine is not reporting facts but making a policy judgment - a political opinion. I've said all along this is political, not scientific, and I don't mean political in a bad way.

63 Soap_Man  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:16:19am

It's snowing today in Chicago. Perhaps Drudge will link to it as "proof" AGW doesn't exist.

(I'm sure others have noticed this, but I can't stand the "Global Warming rally SNOWED out" or "Some warm-weather city has November snow for this first time in decades" headlines.)

64 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:16:25am

re: #56 RRFan

I know this because we have been here for hundreds of thousands of years (before CO2 was discovered!).

You do know that we can tell how much CO2 used to be in the air, right? There are a variety of ways to find out that historical information.

65 KernelPanic  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:19:39am

re: #56 RRFan


And don't try to convince me that you really do know what is going to happen. I have seen this before (global cooling in the 70s, etc.) and know better.

Congratulations for including an easily debunked denialist myth in your reply. Surveys of scientific papers published in the '70s show conclusively that the majority published opinion was towards warming, not cooling. I think there were 4 or less that claimed cooling was (or was going to) occur.

66 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:20:02am

re: #62 acacia

Another weak argument is that 95% emissions of CO2 are from "natural" causes and the other 5% from humans. We're not "natural"? The 95% is then supposedly absorbed in a one-for-one exchange with plants, etc. I don't think a plant takes in only the "natural" CO2 but spits out the "unnatural" human created CO2. If anything, that 95/5 ratio is an encouraging fact because it seems that there are many unexplored potential solutions by decreasing in the 95 category or increasing absorbsion. Again, by creating a natural/unnatural distinction, the magazine is not reporting facts but making a policy judgment - a political opinion. I've said all along this is political, not scientific, and I don't mean political in a bad way.

No, power stations burning billions of tons of coal is not "natural". Millions and millions of vehicles burning trillions of gallons of oil is not "natural". The article wasn't saying that human breathing was the unnatural CO2, it's the multitude of other things we do.

Furthermore, we continue to reduce the ability of the earth to absorb CO2. Huge basins of CO2 absorption, like the rain forests, have been decimated.

You are correct that there may be mitigation techniques, but to get people to engage in that there was to be an acknowledgment that there is a problem.

67 Lemon  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:20:07am

re: #56 RRFan


There is a positive feedback mechanism (probably many) that maintain the earth's temperature. Some of these mechanisms are known, less are understood and some are unknown.

I know this because we have been here for hundreds of thousands of years (before CO2 was discovered!).

Yes, we have been around that long at least, but you can't use that as a claim that we are not vulnerable to climate fluctuations. Look at the Toba eruption, for example. Humans as a species almost didn't make it through that, and that near-extinction was the result of the climate changing over a short period.

The Earth definitely has feedback mechanisms, but that's not to say they're fast-acting. The climate eventually returned to a more hospitable state in the case of Toba and humans survived, but it was a close call. We're just a blip in the history of the Earth. Those corrective mechanisms could take thousands of years to counteract changes.

68 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:21:26am

re: #59 DaddyG

Ugh! I missed the first sentence. Scanning too quickly. Thanks!

So the 5% we are spewing is kind of a tipping point amount that accounts for a huge increase in the surplus amount the bisophere cannot absorb. Am I reading that right?

Well I don't think the term "tipping point" was used, but yes, it is surplus. Surplus means growing.

69 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:23:05am

re: #67 Lemon

Those corrective mechanisms could take thousands of years to counteract changes.

But I saw THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW and it said that an ice age could happen in a week!

___/

70 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:24:19am

Not a very well argued article on some points:

- the MWP and LIA are "only" local...if you define "local" as all of Europe and Asia? Srsly? Considering that the mass of historical records are in Europe and Asia, this is an incredibly weak point to make.

- admitting the sun has some undefined role and needs further study is a bit strange coming from the "science is settled" crowd. If the science is settled, why even bother to look?

As an agnostic on the subject (I guess I can call myself an "honest skeptic" here), I admit the science is strong. Its the measuring that I find weak. And you can't have good science with good measuring. I mean, we're talking tenths of degrees and millimeters of sea level (for instance) spread over decades. Any error in the math isn't just an oopsie. Its massive.

71 acacia  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:25:25am

re: #63 Soap_Man

I agree with you. Anyone with a brain knows that one warm day or one cold day means nothing. To constantly harp on something like that goes beyond an ironic touch - which if used occasionally is fair game. The obvious truth is that the temperature any one day - or any one year for that matter - has no scientific relevance at all.

72 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:25:43am

re: #70 James Goneaux

Er..."And you can't have good science with good measuring."

Make that "And you can't have good science withOUT good measuring." Obvious. I hope.

73 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:26:05am

re: #70 James Goneaux

- the MWP and LIA are "only" local...if you define "local" as all of Europe and Asia? Srsly? Considering that the mass of historical records are in Europe and Asia, this is an incredibly weak point to make.

Correct me if I'm wrong but most ice core data is taken from the polar regions?

74 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:28:13am

Looks like RRFan decided to take his ball and go home once he had to read the facts about his myth...

75 Lemon  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:29:09am

re: #69 Cineaste

Funny you should mention that. Not quite Hollywood, but close!

[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]

76 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:31:10am

re: #75 Lemon

Funny you should mention that. Not quite Hollywood, but close!

[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]

Indeed - though that is definitely at the more speculative end of the scientific spectrum.

77 Soap_Man  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:33:30am

re: #71 acacia

We had a really mild summer here. Every once in awhile while making small talk about the weather, somebody would say, with a self-satisfying smirk, "50 degrees in August. How about that global warming, eh?"

Yep, buddy, you win. An string of unusually cold days. That must prove your point.

78 acacia  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:41:17am

re: #66 Cineaste

Whether we emit CO2 by breathing or by manufacturing power to improve our lives makes no difference. My point is simply that we shouldn't feel embarrassed to place a high value power plants, cars etc. when we go through a cost benefit analysis. Again, people are free to differ on what value to place on what things but if - hypothetically speaking of course - we could decrease emissions by 5% simply by reducing all livestock inventory appropriately, it is fair to argue that this is a better solution even though those emissions are "natural" and ours aren't.

79 DaddyG  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:45:11am

re: #68 Cineaste

Well I don't think the term "tipping point" was used, but yes, it is surplus. Surplus means growing.

My words- not the authors. I'm just trying to internalize it.

Thanks.

80 Darth Vader Gargoyle  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:50:43am

re: #56 RRFan

I am not completely convinced on the whole AGW issue, but a response like this just makes you look like a douche. Accurately it seems...

81 AK-47%  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:57:25am

I jusr applied for a copyright on the hockey stick, it'll cost youse Lizards a nickel each time you use it...


___/

82 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 11:59:08am

re: #73 Cineaste

I'll certainly take a look but I'm talking more of the vast amount of written material describing the climate in Europe and Asia at the time vs. the not very vast at all written material describing the climate outside of this tiny "local" area at the time. I.e., none.

I think the main point you may have missed is that the AWG believers are doing the same thing they accuse deniers/honest skeptics of doing: cherry picking evidence and ignoring everything that doesn't "fit".

And don't get me started on tree rings as a reliable proxy...

83 WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.]  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:01:01pm

I see denier trolls! Hi, denier trolls!

84 WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.]  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:01:37pm

re: #70 James Goneaux

You are what we like to call a concern troll. Cheers! :)

85 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:02:50pm

re: #78 acacia

Whether we emit CO2 by breathing or by manufacturing power to improve our lives makes no difference. My point is simply that we shouldn't feel embarrassed to place a high value power plants, cars etc. when we go through a cost benefit analysis. Again, people are free to differ on what value to place on what things but if - hypothetically speaking of course - we could decrease emissions by 5% simply by reducing all livestock inventory appropriately, it is fair to argue that this is a better solution even though those emissions are "natural" and ours aren't.

Your words:

Another weak argument is that 95% emissions of CO2 are from "natural" causes and the other 5% from humans. We're not "natural"?

Now I see that you were trying to make a point about CO2. That CO2 is CO2 regardless of where it comes from and yes, you are correct. I don't think that's at issue. The question is the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and the extent to which we are contributing to it. I don't think anyone is proposing we return to a pre-industrial age where we emit negligible CO2 but, rather, that we need to recognize there is a problem and then do something about it. That solution can take a couple forms, and there are arguments for doing both:

1) reduce our production of CO2

2) increase our (and nature's) ability to capture the CO2 surplus

The denialists/skeptics/doubters/contrarians/whateverists generally have three points:

1) the earth isn't warming, the data is wrong or misinterpreted

2) the earth is warming but we have nothing to do with it

3) the earth is warming and it doesn't matter

4) the earth is warming and it will cost too much to do something about it

I submit there is ample room for discussion about how to fix it, but first we need to understand that the science is giving us overwhelming evidence that points 1, 2 and 3 are myths. That leaves 4 and we can argue over methods if we all agree something needs to be done. I'm fine with that but sadly, most people are hung up on 1-3.

86 Obdicut  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:05:19pm

re: #78 acacia

You're not using the word 'natural' in the proper context here, but it's just a confusion of terms.

Breathing is carbon-neutral. Burning coal is not carbon-neutral.

87 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:09:58pm

re: #82 James Goneaux

I'll certainly take a look but I'm talking more of the vast amount of written material describing the climate in Europe and Asia at the time vs. the not very vast at all written material describing the climate outside of this tiny "local" area at the time. I.e., none.

I think the main point you may have missed is that the AWG believers are doing the same thing they accuse deniers/honest skeptics of doing: cherry picking evidence and ignoring everything that doesn't "fit".

And don't get me started on tree rings as a reliable proxy...

Go read, then spout.

Try this.

Greenland had a pronounced period of warmth around A.D. 1000, a cool period from 1600 through 1900, and a modest 20th century warming. Some coastal sites in Antarctica show 20th century warming but interior sites do not. No Antarctic sites show a warming during medieval times.

That's from ice cores.

88 Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:15:41pm

re: #69 Cineaste

But I saw THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW and it said that an ice age could happen in a week!

___/

You realize the reality isn't that far off from the movie (not withstanding the over the top special effects of supercooled baroclinic storms that looked like hurricanes and pulled supermegacooled air down that froze things faster than a bath of liquid nitrogen... but we won't mention that part!)

the point that needs to be made is, if the Atlantic Ocean Conveyor is shut down, the Northern Hemisphere would feel the effects within a matter of months.

The usual caveats apply, we don't know all the details, we don't know if the North Atlantic Conveyor would be supplemented by other currents or atmospheric phenomena etc etc. in geological times, weeks versus months isn't that much of a difference.

89 MKelly  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:22:22pm

Nice article from 1959 but since we now know that CO2 lags temperture by average 800 years via the Vostok ice cores the theory is not valid. He does say that sea life will not be effected by a increase in CO2 as PH won't change but .5. Some of what the SA climate contrarian article says is not factual. There is over 150 years of checking for CO2 in the atmosphere and levels up to 450 were recorded with an accuracy of +/-3% not the 388 he sites. He sites a 2006 report of temperature rise in the last 400 years. Ya, 400 years ago we were in the LIA for God sake. I am glad the temperature rose and we may still be getting out of it. There is no green house effect on a planet. Open the window and the green house cools. I could gone on but must get back to work. Until we exceed the temperature of the Holocene Optimum we are OK.

90 AllanHateMe  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:36:53pm

Sorry, but this is not a scientific paper, it is an opinion piece. It is full of unattributed assertions that are taken as fact. It is no different than a so-called "climate-denier" saying it was cold yesterday so there is no global warming. And not once does the author address the fact that empirical evidence does not backup what the models have been predicting. I'm all for protecting the environment and getting a way from fossil fuels. But AGW is nothing but a religion. The science just isn't there, which is why the AGW crowd ignore the pertinent questions and resort to ad hominem attacks. Before they decided we were all going to die, the IPCC said that the climate is a fully coupled, chaotic system and is therefore beyond our ability to accurately model. When your measured data doesn't match your model's prediction, the model is wrong.

91 Varek Raith  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:47:20pm

re: #89 MKelly
re: #90 AllanHateMe

Would you two care to provide links to actual science to prove your assertions?

92 Obdicut  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:48:21pm

re: #90 AllanHateMe

The models do, in fact, match empirical evidence.

Please go to www.skepticalscience.com for refutation of your other canards.

93 RRFan  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:49:56pm

OK! - I repent. Everything you say about man made global warming is true.

What we will need is a nuclear winter to combat global warming. The advantage to this is that we will be able to get rid of several problem countries in the process.

See - Everyone wins.

94 Obdicut  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:54:07pm

re: #93 RRFan

You are very clever and that 'joke' is totally fresh.

///

95 Varek Raith  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 12:59:56pm

re: #93 RRFan

WTF?

96 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:11:39pm

re: #85 Cineaste

I guess I'm in that mysterious fifth point: "Yes it is warming but we can't reliably measure how much, or agree on a good starting point to start measuring..."

97 Obdicut  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:13:57pm

re: #96 James Goneaux

I guess I'm in that mysterious fifth point: "Yes it is warming but we can't reliably measure how much, or agree on a good starting point to start measuring..."

Please go to www.skepticalscience.com for quick and easy proof that we do, indeed know how much, and that the measurements we have from lots of different data sources do, in fact, agree.

98 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:19:34pm

re: #87 Cineaste

"Current understanding does not allow us to separate the temperature part of this signal rigorously".

Lucky that the science is settled, and we don't really have to truly understand why polar ice is formed due to temperature, but sub-polar ice is a combination of factors. But lets just ignore that little part and push the decline up anyway.

Cherry picking and masking dodgy methodologies. Again.

What's the error bar on an ice core anyway?

99 EE  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:40:01pm

There are written medical debates in the medical journals, when the editor lines up writers on both sides of an issue. Why isn't there a debate on the issues that are disputed in climate science?

A one-sided argument in a popular magazine is still not a debate.

All that the public has seen has been one-sided harangues, especially since the attempts by the non-orthodox, or heterodox, to have their own theories and data published are fought by the orthodox climatologists.

100 ryannon  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:54:08pm

I don't believe anything that Scientific American prints anymore. Ever since two weeks ago, when someone here posted that the publication was bought by a German publishing conglomerate which is in bed with the GREENS!

I did a lot of research into that but couldn't find any evidence, so now would be a great time for that Lizard to come forward with the proof and save me from looking like a total idiot. So whoever you are, please come out Don't let the crickets eat me!

(Sound of legions of crickets approaching)

101 ryannon  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:56:35pm
102 acacia  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:57:21pm

re: #86 Obdicut

I was only questioning how the magazine used the term. Cineaste states better than I what I was trying to say (See #85) Also, I'm not sure why you say breathing is carbon neutral unless you're making assumptions about population, absorption, etc. But maybe I'm missing something.

103 ryannon  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 1:59:26pm
104 bklynkid  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 2:35:00pm

Years ago it was "population," "Hole in the atmosphere" then the ice age etc. Have not read any meaning full number as to how much co/2 is bad. I guess this is the way that carbonated drinks are to go the way of shaving cream.

105 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 2:36:09pm

re: #96 James Goneaux

I guess I'm in that mysterious fifth point: "Yes it is warming but we can't reliably measure how much, or agree on a good starting point to start measuring..."

And how is that different from 3?

3) the earth is warming and it doesn't matter

You're saying that the earth is warming, but until we know how warm it will ultimately get, it doesn't matter. I submit those are the same point.

106 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 2:39:22pm

re: #99 EE

There are written medical debates in the medical journals, when the editor lines up writers on both sides of an issue. Why isn't there a debate on the issues that are disputed in climate science?

A one-sided argument in a popular magazine is still not a debate.

All that the public has seen has been one-sided harangues, especially since the attempts by the non-orthodox, or heterodox, to have their own theories and data published are fought by the orthodox climatologists.

I'm sorry but you're assumption is wrong. There is not a debate in climate science.

Show us data that shows the globe isn't warming. You're not going to find it, I'm sorry. You say people have had that contradicted the evidence from NASA, NOAA and others - please offer it to us and we'll happily discuss it.

107 EE  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 2:46:51pm

There are differences of opinion. See for example the article by a professor of meteorology at MIT, who went over the items on which there is agreement, and the items on which there is disagreement.

The deniers that there is any disagreement still don't get it. It is not for them to say that there is no disagreement. It is for the skeptics to concede the point, if that is what they choose to do. And that has not happened.

This is Scientific American article did not allow any rebuttal to its attack on the views of the skeptics, did it? Just the same old, same old, method of using strong arm tactics to avoid any debate. This is more like a propaganda campaign in an election, than it is an attempt to educate.

It is amazing that the orthodox still don't get it, and still don't allow the skeptics to have their say.

108 ryannon  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 3:30:50pm

re: #100 ryannon

I don't believe anything that Scientific American prints anymore. Ever since two weeks ago, when someone here posted that the publication was bought by a German publishing conglomerate which is in bed with the GREENS!

I did a lot of research into that but couldn't find any evidence, so now would be a great time for that Lizard to come forward with the proof and save me from looking like a total idiot. So whoever you are, please come out Don't let the crickets eat me!

(Sound of legions of crickets approaching)


Err...Charles?

it was /

109 EE  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 3:57:44pm

re: #106 Cineaste

You attribute to me things that I have not said. I am waiting to see a debate, a fair and honest debate, in writing, between the top people on both sides. I haven't seen that happening.

I read about an email that uses the word "trick" and the phrase "hide the decline" in the same sentence, and it smells like fudging the data. I read about preventing the skeptics from publishing, and doing it even if the peer-review literature has to be redefined, and it smells like something foul may be going on.

Let both sides have a go at it, in a fair and honest way.

Turning the court of public opinion into a kangaroo court doesn't smell right to me. Both sides should be able to present, and to argue, and to rebut. With the top people from both sides participating.

110 Lateralis  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 3:58:01pm

Interesting article in WSJ.

Your text to link...

111 wrenchwench  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:05:58pm

re: #110 Lateralis

Interesting article in WSJ.

Your text to link...

Notice that, although it is called an "article", it is from the Opinion page.

Also, notice this:

136 Charles12/02/2009 9:24:52 am PST

About Richard Lindzen:

[Link: www.google.com...]

Lindzen's credibility in the scientific community: below zero.

112 elizajane  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:15:17pm

Robert Byrd, formerly of "everything for coal is good," writes today in the West Virginia MetroNews
[Link: www.wvmetronews.com...]

"To be part of any solution, one must first acknowledge a problem. To deny the mounting science of climate change is to stick our heads in the sand and say “deal me out.” West Virginia would be much smarter to stay at the table."

He concludes:

"Change has been a constant throughout the history of our coal industry. West Virginians can choose to anticipate change and adapt to it, or resist and be overrun by it. One thing is clear. The time has arrived for the people of the Mountain State to think long and hard about which course they want to choose."

113 manitobarat  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:16:22pm

[Link: www.theglobeandmail.com...]

hmmm...

"A British university said Thursday it would investigate whether scientists at its prestigious Climatic Research Unit fudged data on global warming."

further down...

"There was further criticism following the revelation that the university had thrown out much of the raw temperature data on which some of its global warming research was based. The university said in a statement last week that the data, stored on paper and magnetic tape, was dumped in the 1980s to save space when the unit moved to a new location. "

I guess there may be something to this climategate thing?

114 garhighway  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:23:12pm

You know that a scientific debate is one-sided (and therefore not really a scientific debate) when one side has peer-reviewed scientific papers and the other has blog posts.

115 EE  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:25:25pm

re: #113 manitobarat

Most people polled smell something foul going on. What can be done to restore the public's confidence in climate science?
One writer from the orthodox side says that what is needed is more transparency in the way that the science is done. It is hard to argue with that.
One writer from the business magazine Forbes says that what is needed is for the president to commission an investigation of Climategate. But who would be doing the investigating?

116 Randall Gross  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:40:20pm

re: #115 EE

There's already an independent review slated, and it's a tempest in a thimble.

117 ManitobaRat  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:42:01pm

EE, open source climate science? I'd be a huge fan of that. That's exactly what the "other side" wants anyways. FOIA request etc..

If the science is sound, what do they have to lose?

118 garhighway  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:43:49pm

The frustrating thing is that the science IS transparent for those that take the trouble (and have the capacity) to read and understand the work.

But "transparent" does not equal "accessible to those who don't even try".

119 Randall Gross  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:45:54pm

re: #100 ryannon

Now would be the time for you to provide real proof of your absurd kookspiracy theory.

You don't believe Sci-am, then you probably don't believe in plate tectonics, that we landed on the moon, and several other things they've reported on.

Why I bet they are lieing about the LHC!!!

///

120 Randall Gross  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 4:53:23pm

re: #100 ryannon

Ooops, just saw that you left off the /sarc tag... Ding removed

121 Achilles Tang  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 5:15:46pm

re: #115 EE

Most people polled smell something foul going on. What can be done to restore the public's confidence in climate science?
One writer from the orthodox side says that what is needed is more transparency in the way that the science is done. It is hard to argue with that.
One writer from the business magazine Forbes says that what is needed is for the president to commission an investigation of Climategate. But who would be doing the investigating?

More transparency in climate science? Just exactly what do you mean by that? That all scientists must video tape any meetings, notes on napkins and emails and telephone conversations, and post them on Youtube?

And then of course anyone could be a critic, regardless of credentials, but who cares, since it's hard to argue with transparency.//

Truth is, if one knows what to ask for (knows what one is talking about), anyone can have access to all the data right now. The problem is that intellectually lazy people are only qualified to cherry pick the work others do.

122 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 5:16:42pm

re: #105 Cineaste

I respectfully disagree. I'm saying "the danger is in the dose". And we can't yet measure the dose.

123 Achilles Tang  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 5:27:04pm

re: #122 James Goneaux

I respectfully disagree. I'm saying "the danger is in the dose". And we can't yet measure the dose.

Are you kidding? You think the hard part is predicting what will happen if the dose is 1,2,3 or whatever degrees more?

124 James Goneaux  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 5:31:48pm

re: #97 Obdicut

Well, that's a big website. Anything in your own words to support your case?

I'm not really go to read through something that has "...personal attacks or non-relevant links will be deleted." as a warning, yet allows a comment like "McIntyre reminds me of a two year old with a migraine. " Bit of a disconnect for me.

Just as I wouldn't ask you to go to [Link: www.co2science.org...] and refute everything there.

125 Achilles Tang  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 5:41:12pm

re: #124 James Goneaux

Well, that's a big website. Anything in your own words to support your case?

I'm not really go to read through something that has "...personal attacks or non-relevant links will be deleted." as a warning, yet allows a comment like "McIntyre reminds me of a two year old with a migraine. " Bit of a disconnect for me.

Just as I wouldn't ask you to go to [Link: www.co2science.org...] and refute everything there.

You are too sensitive. Someone else has already answered pretty much anything you are likely to say in the post quoted below.

re: #118 garhighway

The frustrating thing is that the science IS transparent for those that take the trouble (and have the capacity) to read and understand the work.

But "transparent" does not equal "accessible to those who don't even try".

126 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 5:42:53pm

re: #107 EE

The deniers that there is any disagreement still don't get it. It is not for them to say that there is no disagreement. It is for the skeptics to concede the point, if that is what they choose to do. And that has not happened.

Ok - so as long as creationists claim the earth is 6,000 years old and God created Adam & Eve then there is no scientific consensus that the earth is older than 6,000 years?

There will always be skeptics and conspiracists.

127 EE  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 7:16:52pm

This has nothing to do with creationists at all. That is a distraction from the actual situation.

At EPA, they proposed a memorandum based on the UN report, and asked for reviews. Alan Carlin, who besides his doctorate in economics from MIT, has a BS in physics from California Institute of Technology, who has been an analyst at the EPA for decades, and was even a division head for several years, wrote a detailed critique of the memo, and indicated 7 alleged "failures" of the present UN-based models. They are not in accordance with what is known and what has been measured, orthey leave out important aspects, he said, and he quoted reports of climatology work by scientists. For example, the troposphere over the tropics, which should show the effects of the blanketing of CO2 very strongly, behaves differently relative to the surface there than is predicted by the UN-based models. According to the UN-based models, the troposphere over the tropics should have a temperature that is increasing faster than the surface temperature there. But the measured values show that the opposite is occurring: the surface temperatures are increasing faster.

His report wasn't published by the EPA, not even with a disclaimer. Now, with the Climategate scandal, it is becoming clear why, with the efforts of the groupthinking climatologists to shut out any dissenting views, the effect is to prevent error-corrections from being published.

This has nothing at all to do with creationism. It has everything to do with groupthink, and censorship.

Something is amiss if the theory and its models disagree with actual measurements. The burden of proof concerning the models is on those who created those models. If they need to be improved, then it should be permissible to point that out, and to show where they "fail" or are inaccurate or deficient.

128 EE  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 7:26:06pm

Calling for the destruction of emails doesn't sound very transparent at all.
And refusing to give out the information requested under the UK's Freedom of Information Act doesn't sound very transparent at all.
And including a "trick" to "hide the decline" doesn't sound like they are trying to be very transparent at all.
And trying to destroy journals that have the nerve to publish views different from the dogma of the orthodox doesn't sound like they are trying to be very transparent at all.
And "losing" most of the original data, as they claim, doesn't seem like they are very much interested in being transparent at all. Sounds like the dog ate my homework.

129 Achilles Tang  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 7:47:37pm

re: #128 EE


Sounds like the dog ate my homework.

Too bad that didn't happen with yours, given that all you do is trot out the same crap that has been answered previously.

130 Lateralis  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 7:52:59pm

It would seem that the left has incorporated climate change as their religion and they are acting like the medieval church when it comes to scientists who may not agree with there world view.

131 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 7:54:50pm

re: #127 EE

Alan Carlin, about the report you cite:

“There are numerous problems with it,” he said. “I wouldn’t dream of sending it to a journal in its current form. It is totally unacceptable for that type of thing."

Here is a pretty detailed refutation of Carlin's paper, with sourcing.

Excerpt:

But it gets worse, what solid peer reviewed science do they cite for support? A heavily-criticised blog posting showing that there are bi-decadal periods in climate data and that this proves it was the sun wot done it. The work of an award-winning astrologer (one Theodor Landscheidt, who also thought that the rise of Hitler and Stalin were due to cosmic cycles), a classic Courtillot paper we’ve discussed before, the aforementioned FoS web page, another web page run by Doug Hoyt, a paper by Garth Paltridge reporting on artifacts in the NCEP reanalysis of water vapour that are in contradiction to every other reanalysis, direct observations and satellite data, a complete reprint of another un-peer reviewed paper by William Gray, a nonsense paper by Miskolczi etc. etc. I’m not quite sure how this is supposed to compete with the four rounds of international scientific and governmental review of the IPCC or the rounds of review of the CCSP reports….

132 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 7:57:42pm

re: #128 EE

And "losing" most of the original data, as they claim, doesn't seem like they are very much interested in being transparent at all. Sounds like the dog ate my homework.

Where has there been any claim that any original data was lost? This is a completely fabricated talking point you are echoing.

They retained 95% of the source data, the other 5% was collected from other agencies, who maintain that data, and who own the rights to release that data. They are currently working with those agencies to get the permissions to make those public.

133 Achilles Tang  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 8:03:31pm

re: #130 Lateralis

It would seem that the left has incorporated climate change as their religion and they are acting like the medieval church when it comes to scientists who may not agree with there world view.

I don't think you can tell a scientists from a troll.

134 Cineaste  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 8:05:01pm

re: #133 Naso Tang

I don't think you can tell a scientists from a troll.

Sure you can. The scientist is the one with the data.

135 Achilles Tang  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 8:06:06pm

re: #134 Cineaste

Sure you can. The scientist is the one with the data.

OK. I don't think he can tell a data from a troll.

136 Demandrel  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:41:33pm

Below is the email I wrote to my dad after reading the above article. I admit to not being an expert in the LEAST on any of this, but these are my thoughts. The context is that my father is an engineer (and a brilliant one at that), and so we have both been following this for a long time and casually reading the opinions of others and discussing them. Botho f us have experience building models for people, and as such we both know that models can be manipulated to show the result you want almost regardless of data (I am an investment banker; this is my job).

The email (in two parts):

It is interesting to read articles claiming that global warming is definitely a threat that address merely the simplest and most poorly formed arguments against human-induced global warming.

For example, I have not heard anyone argue in a long time that CO2 will have zero impact on the atmosphere because water vapor exists. Yet that is what this article argues against in point one.

Similarly, point two, in which they state that the hockey stick is irrelevant and therefore disproving it is irrelevant also sets up a straw man. They state that skeptics argue against global warming merely because the hockey stick is not accurate. Many people now seem to have concluded that the hockey stick is inaccurate (there are many, many articles I have read about cherry-picking of data, about tampering with data, etc, etc). It is therefore just one point against the basis for this being a unique period in global warming. That in itself neither proves nor disproves human-induced global warming, but it certainly takes away some of the support that this is a unique point in history.

Point three essentially rejects what is happening currently and declares it an anomaly because it does not fit in the model. Instead, it should be another piece of evidence in the examination of what is occurring.

Point five is, in my opinion, disproven by the leaked emails, regardless of what this article says. I think statements to the contrary are somewhat ridiculous given the parties obviously conspired to prevent dissenting views from reaching the light of day by attemping to shape the peer review process in their favour.

The article takes the stance that global warming has already been proven and therefore if you examine each of the points separately, they are irrelevant. In reality, points two and three are evidence in contrary of the theories that have been built up to support the idea of human-induced global warming. The IPCC uses temperature reconstructions as evidence of human induced global warming, and so a rejection of that evidence takes away a key piece of evidence.

The article instead relies on the theory that computer models have proven that human-induced global warming is true and is the cause of the recent changes in temperature change. Anyone who has worked with statistics will understand that correlation does not equal causation. If you eliminate the historical evidence that this period is a uniquely warm one, then suddenly you are left merely with correlation and models as your sole proof of human-induced warming. And then you arrive at the arguments against the computer models that resonate most strongly with me:

a. Temperature changes have not necessarily been in accordance with their models, and recent temperature changes have certainly not been in accordance with their models;

b. From a long-term perspective, temperature has been rising since 1850 or so, when we had decent records. The long-term trend has been an upward one. Prior to the 50s, however, the change in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere seemed relatively insignificant. The change in temperature that people use to justify CO2 as causing the warming only covers limited measurement period;

c. The long-term trend of temperature change has not been "unusual" relative to long-term history (which is why those Hockey Stick graphs were so damn important);

137 Demandrel  Thu, Dec 3, 2009 10:45:13pm

Part two of the email I sent to my dad:

d. It still seems that there has been bias in the temperature change records because of urban heat islands, which seem to be a real phenomena and are certainly very logical. This argues that the actual increase in temperature has been less than that expressed in temperature data. This makes it very interesting that the proxy temperature reconstructions are scrapped starting in the 60s in graphs because they do not correspond with the recorded temperature changes;

e. If there was a long-term warming trend that was suppressed by aerosols after the 50s, one would expect a rapid resurgence in temperatures to the long-term trend once that factor was removed from the environment - this is what has occurred in reality;

f. A number of scientists have argued that CO2 causes warming but the actual warming caused by CO2 is far less than what is argued for in the models, and they provide evidence to back this up (and then I have yet to understand whether or not this evidence is credible and should do more research on this, but essentially it has to do with satellite measurements of feedback factors);

g. There are a number of inconsistencies between the models and empirical results:

i. poor link to actual temperatures in the troposphere;

ii. feedback factors to not correspond to reality;

iii. another technical reason I do not understand to do with heat transfer;

iv. poor results relative to recent air temperature data; and

v. poor results relative to recent ocean temperature data.

h. This graph by itself should give everyone pause and make them exceptionally skeptical of human-induced global warming:

[The graph shows proxy temperature from Greenland based on ice core data for the last 5,000 years and demonstrates that sudden warming from time to time, especially coming out of low temperature periods, seems to be normal].

i. Climate models assume positive feedback from ocean warming, creating the potential for "tipping points"; however, the Earth has been considerably warmer in history and we have never reached a tipping point. There are a number of other arguments for water vapor having a negative feedback effect, all of which significantly mitigate the impact of human-induced global warming as proposed by the IPCC.

Anyways, the above reasons, some of which I do not understand because I am not a scientist (and therefore cannot prove or disprove the concepts without significantly more work) are the reasons why I remain skeptical.

I am not a "denier" of anything, but as a practicioner of models, it is extremely tough to make me believe something based on correlation with no definite causation. I have used that kind of stuff to "prove" ridiculous things in the past for the bank I used to work for.

138 patrioticduo  Fri, Dec 4, 2009 12:01:18pm

Charles,

You were instrumental in RatherGate. I joined your community as a direct result and I have for years watched your rational approach to life and philosophy unfold. In RatherGate, you took a fabricated story and demolished it with a simple idea that you tested and produced results to prove that is was fake (to wit, you applied scientific method). You had the benefit of the tools needed (scanner) and software (MS word) and the resources (time and a sharp intelligence) to bring together your brilliant result.

Now, various AGW skeptics have been hammering away for years, trying to get at the original data that temperature records have been based upon. They have been blocked for years! Finally, they get the break they need (the ClimateGate files) and they now adequately demonstrate, through carefully applied rational thinking and analysis (the same as yours), that one of the the global temperature records (of which there are only a surprising few) was based on biased, fradulent and obstructionist staff who had a predetermined outcome in mind and they produced that predetermined and false result. They faked lower temperatures in the 1940's and they faked higher temperatures in the 1990's and they hid the lower temperatures in the 2000's.

Does that sound to you like a repeat of RatherGate? I hope so. Because to be quite frank, I am shocked that in your pursuit of criticism of the Right (something that I happen to agree with you about), you unfortunately have been unable to take a rational and informed look at the ClimateGate data, method and results. It just goes to show that literally ANYONE, even those who are hellenistic rationalists such as yourself, can engage in unconscious self delusion. I urge you to look at the actual emails, the actual data, the actual careful skeptical analysis that has been done by brilliant people and understand these basic points.

The temperature record is now revised both down and up! The released ClimateGate graphs now show the period of the 1940's as being much warmer than they were shown to be previously. And, the temperatures of the 1990's have been shown to be much less that those previously reported. The higher 1940's data was fudged out of the released IPCC reports and Tom Wigleys' and other published papers. The lower temperatures of the 1990's and 2000's were also fudged up.

Up until now, many, many studies have been trying to show that natural causes cannot account for these latest decade increases. Study after study makes the claim that "XX% or thereabouts of warming can be attributed to normal natural processes so the other yy% of warming must be caused by human activity". However, with temperatures record now readjusted to be as it actually was and is these previous studies are made irrelevant and their conclusions are either partially or completely wrong.

As one rational thinker to another, I urge you to carefully investigate this matter for yourself because I would hate to see you discredit yourself as you continue to condemn the scientific evidence that is now on public display for all to see. Man may still cause some global warming but you owe it to yourself to find out how little that might actually be.

Yours absolutely sincerely,

Mike

PS: Trolls have truly overtaken your site. Bit of a shame.

139 Charles Johnson  Fri, Dec 4, 2009 12:08:55pm

re: #138 patrioticduo

What a load. Nobody "faked" anything. And no, this isn't even remotely similar to Rathergate.

The irrationality of climate change deniers is awesome to behold.

140 srjh  Fri, Dec 4, 2009 12:27:28pm

re: #128 EE


And including a "trick" to "hide the decline" doesn't sound like they are trying to be very transparent at all.

That was in an email, taken out of context and never meant for public release, which still doesn't seem to show anything as nefarious as the conspiracy theorists make out. It should say a lot that this was the worst example they seem to be able to find out of thousands of emails from one of the biggest alleged hoaxes in human history - what amounts to nothing more than the use of slang between colleagues.

It's important to note that "hide the decline" has been made out to be a deliberate falsification of temperature readings, but:

a) It wasn't a temperature reading, it was a tree-ring proxy used to infer temperature. Over the period that it "declined" (the last few decades), we actually have temperature readings (which show a clear upward trend), we don't need proxies.

b) Far from actively hiding the "decline" from the public, the author of this email co-authored a paper on it in Nature. The problem with this particular proxy in recent years is widely acknowledged, but there are many, many other proxies which confirm significant heating in line with recent carbon dioxide emissions.

The leaks are a complete non-issue, and do nothing to change the fact that the overwhelming scientific consensus is that the planet is warming and that we are largely responsible. It should be quite telling that it is largely those without a scientific background who seem to be falling for it.

141 srjh  Fri, Dec 4, 2009 12:52:23pm

re: #127 EE

For example, the troposphere over the tropics, which should show the effects of the blanketing of CO2 very strongly, behaves differently relative to the surface there than is predicted by the UN-based models. According to the UN-based models, the troposphere over the tropics should have a temperature that is increasing faster than the surface temperature there. But the measured values show that the opposite is occurring: the surface temperatures are increasing faster.

This page presents a good coverage of this issue.

Short story - there were mathematical errors in the initial argument put forward by the deniers, and an independent analysis shows the troposphere warming at a higher level, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the results - it's certainly not something you can reasonably discard decades of climate research and solid scientific reasoning away over. The radiative forcing effect of CO2 is pretty well understood at the moment, and it would take an awful lot to dethrone it.


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