As we catch up on environmentalist Peter Sinclair’s excellent videos debunking the most common climate change denial canards, here’s one from earlier this year about the so-called “Medieval Warming Period” — another false talking point that shows up in every LGF thread about global warming.
1 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 7:51:01pm |
It's cold outside, therefore, there is no global warming.
| 2 |
Mark Pennington Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:00:35pm |
I looked outside, and it was snowing, therefore, there is no climate change.
| 4 |
Obdicut Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:08:27pm |
I love his point that one of the favorite graphs of the deniers was produced by the IPCC themselves.
| 5 |
freetoken Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:09:21pm |
| 6 |
recusancy Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:11:40pm |
Good post on the coming frustration that is going to be climate legislation coming this year.
| 7 |
Jaerik Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:11:55pm |
"And that's when Abraham Lincoln came in" made me do such a double-take that I was reminded of this one.
"Your mind has been teleported into the past! ...and to Mars."
| 8 |
Randall Gross Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:12:04pm |
The saddest thing is the recycling of debunked points by the deniers. If they repeat the lie oft enough and loud enough the GP might believe them.
| 9 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:15:16pm |
I've never thought of the Vikings as happy guys. More like the wood chipper psycho from Fargo.
| 10 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:16:01pm |
Damn, but I wish I understood the nuts & bolts of this stuff better. These videos are right on my level, though, and I appreciate them.
| 11 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:16:18pm |
I'm less concerned about temps rising as I am regarding decreased rainfall in the south west...old timers in NM have stories to tell about acequias that are hundreds of years old, used for rain runoff that have not been used in at least a few decades...we are slowly drying out down here...climate change?...certainly...global warming?, does anybody know?
| 12 |
Randall Gross Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:17:15pm |
OT: Beef recall affecting mostly restaurant beef:
[Link: www.kansascity.com...]
| 13 |
recusancy Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:17:43pm |
re: #10 The Sanity Inspector
Damn, but I wish I understood the nuts & bolts of this stuff better. These videos are right on my level, though, and I appreciate them.
I know it might drive you insane to hear but watch An Inconvenient Truth. It's laid out very well for the laymen. It explains that science behind it very well.
| 14 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:20:05pm |
re: #13 recusancy
I know it might drive you insane to hear but watch An Inconvenient Truth. It's laid out very well for the laymen. It explains that science behind it very well.
You're probably right on all three counts.
| 15 |
Linden Arden Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:20:38pm |
Lake Mead has 1/3 of its water in recent years - due primarily to lack of snow melt from the Rockies.
Here is a picture of the "bathtub ring" effect caused by calcium deposits at higher water levels:
When Vegas is rationing water to guests in five years a few more people might take this danger seriously.
| 16 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:20:52pm |
Really nice pictures - Zeppelin Tour of the bay area. No, not Led Zeppelin.
| 17 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:21:02pm |
| 18 |
freetoken Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:21:26pm |
From the latest (Nov 09) version of "The Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) Report", produced by the British Antarctic Survey in service to a multitude of organizations, summarizing the work of very many scientists who study the Antarctic, in the executive summary page xv:
14. Links between the climates of the northern and southern hemispheres exist, but through most of the Holocene and in the prior ice age northern hemisphere climate events lagged
southern hemisphere ones by several hundred years.In contrast, in recent decades the northern hemisphere signal of rising temperature since about 1850 AD has paralleled that of the southern hemisphere.
Temperature change in the two hemispheres (at least as far as West Antarctica is concerned) now appears to be synchronous - a significant departure from former times, which suggests a new and different forcing, most likely related to anthropogenic activity in the form of enhanced greenhouse gases.
There is no evidence in Antarctica for an equivalent to the northern hemisphere Medieval Warm Period, and there is only weak circumstantial evidence in a few places for a cool event crudely equivalent in time to the northern hemisphere’s Little Ice Age.
The above paragraph is very important, and is something which many deniers deny, and thus why they are called "deniers".
| 19 |
Varek Raith Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:22:48pm |
Sigh. To think that just two years ago I would've must certainly be seen as a climate change denier... [Varek facepalms himself] Thanks, Charles, for all you have done to inform us on this subject. :)
| 20 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:24:49pm |
re: #19 Varek Raith
Sigh. To think that just two years ago I would've must certainly be seen as a climate change denier... [Varek facepalms himself] Thanks, Charles, for all you have done to inform us on this subject. :)
Agreed. I finally changed my mind just a few months ago.
| 21 |
McSpiff Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:27:28pm |
re: #20 Racer X
Agreed. I finally changed my mind just a few months ago.
Care to expand on what finally changed your mind? Any one particular resource stand out?
| 22 |
Obdicut Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:27:43pm |
re: #19 Varek Raith
He's a relentless barrage of facts and sense.
| 23 |
Velvet Elvis Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:28:30pm |
Here's a really good site listing resources for people trying to talk to climate skeptics:
[Link: www.briangordon.ca...]
| 24 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:28:50pm |
Question for those of you who've changed your minds; what did it? I doubt there was a "Road to Damascus" style epiphany, but what got the ball rolling? My mother and business partner go further and further into denial territory with each passing day and I'd like to shift that momentum in the other direction if I can help it.
| 25 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:29:03pm |
re: #16 Racer X
Really nice pictures - Zeppelin Tour of the bay area. No, not Led Zeppelin.
I would love to fly over SF in that thing....I love looking down on cities
| 26 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:29:11pm |
re: #19 Varek Raith
Sigh. To think that just two years ago I would've must certainly be seen as a climate change denier... [Varek facepalms himself] Thanks, Charles, for all you have done to inform us on this subject. :)
Agreed but I still can't bring myself to listen to Gore. I won't dismiss something because he says it, but I do need to hear confirmation from someone other than him.
| 27 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:29:18pm |
re: #11 albusteve
According to the scientific models, they will dry up and vanish. We'll all be squished together in the middle of the country. Edgar Cayce was right(gasp!). Florida will be gone.
| 28 |
ryannon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:29:20pm |
re: #16 Racer X
Really nice pictures - Zeppelin Tour of the bay area. No, not Led Zeppelin.
One nice aeronautic post deserves another - and one of my all-time favorites:
| 29 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:29:47pm |
re: #23 Conservative Moonbat
Thanks for that.
| 30 |
ryannon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:30:17pm |
re: #16 Racer X
Really nice pictures - Zeppelin Tour of the bay area. No, not Led Zeppelin.
Oops. It's getting late here. I forgot the link:
| 31 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:30:37pm |
re: #16 Racer X
Really nice pictures - Zeppelin Tour of the bay area. No, not Led Zeppelin.
| 32 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:30:37pm |
re: #21 McSpiff
Care to expand on what finally changed your mind? Any one particular resource stand out?
Charles. A voice to be trusted.
| 33 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:31:15pm |
| 34 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:31:49pm |
re: #27 prairiefire
According to the scientific models, they will dry up and vanish. We'll all be squished together in the middle of the country. Edgar Cayce was right(gasp!). Florida will be gone.
there is a huge 'lake' underneath the central Rio Grande valley...we are far from done in, as long as we can keep the refugees from CA and AZ outa here....this is paradise in comparison and they have caught on
| 35 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:32:42pm |
re: #15 Linden Arden
Lake Mead has 1/3 of its water in recent years - due primarily to lack of snow melt from the Rockies.
Here is a picture of the "bathtub ring" effect caused by calcium deposits at higher water levels:
When Vegas is rationing water to guests in five years a few more people might take this danger seriously.
Even if there were not AGW, the American West would be very vulnerable to ordinary droughts, so over-promised is the scant water supply.
| 36 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:33:47pm |
re: #21 McSpiff
Care to expand on what finally changed your mind? Any one particular resource stand out?
LGF.
Charles kept an open mind on this subject for a long time, and allowed some pretty smart people to post real science - Ludwig and freetoken come to mind.
I struggled with it due to the political bickering that goes with this issue. There are lots of smart Lizards that posted very good info, and I finally saw the light.
Thanks Charles!
| 37 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:34:01pm |
re: #35 The Sanity Inspector
Even if there were not AGW, the American West would be very vulnerable to ordinary droughts, so over-promised is the scant water supply.
Yuma looks like Indiana...lush, green celery
| 39 |
Varek Raith Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:35:56pm |
re: #24 JasonA
Question for those of you who've changed your minds; what did it? I doubt there was a "Road to Damascus" style epiphany, but what got the ball rolling? My mother and business partner go further and further into denial territory with each passing day and I'd like to shift that momentum in the other direction if I can help it.
Watching what Ben Stein did to evolution is what made me 'snap', as they say. I started looking into the groups that opposed evolution and, low and behold, some were also behind anti-AGW campaigns. Not to mention I began to notice an eerie similarity between what ID proponents do and what AGW opponents do. After that, I spent ~6 months combing through the research behind AGW. Man, did I feel foolish...
| 41 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:37:29pm |
re: #39 Varek Raith
I still haven't seen Stein's movie. Part of me really wants to out of curiosity.
| 42 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:37:40pm |
| 43 |
recusancy Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:38:06pm |
re: #41 JasonA
I still haven't seen Stein's movie. Part of me really wants to out of curiosity.
It's constantly on Showtime lately. I haven't watched it yet either. Haven't been bored and drunk enough I guess.
| 44 |
Varek Raith Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:38:27pm |
re: #41 JasonA
I still haven't seen Stein's movie. Part of me really wants to out of curiosity.
I was literally yelling at my laptop during that whole travesty of a mockumentary.
| 45 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:38:37pm |
re: #30 ryannon
Oops. It's getting late here. I forgot the link:
[Video]
That was cool! I liked the loops.
| 46 |
Randall Gross Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:38:45pm |
I've never been a denier and always acknowledged the Greenhouse effect, but I will cop to being an agitator for more procrastination mostly due to ill will towards Al Gore's anti nuclear cabal - that was wrong to let my political bias affect my conclusions.
The evidence keeps mounting that things are getting serious enough to act now rather than later in century.
That said, it's time for me to get some sleeps.
| 47 |
Jaerik Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:39:00pm |
re: #41 JasonA
I still haven't seen Stein's movie. Part of me really wants to out of curiosity.
Me too, but I'm afraid it would make me too angry.
| 48 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:39:05pm |
re: #41 JasonA
I still haven't seen Stein's movie. Part of me really wants to out of curiosity.
Its on right now. Showtime I think.
| 49 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:39:21pm |
| 50 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:39:41pm |
re: #42 albusteve
Speaking for myself, I would not mess with you! I'm planning for a trek up to Canada.
| 51 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:41:13pm |
re: #48 Racer X
Its on right now. Showtime I think.
Yep. I'm not going to watch it. If I want to watch bad TV, I'll watch something that only insults my intelligence, not something that also is rotting our schools as well.
| 53 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:43:07pm |
re: #52 JasonA
Ah, nevermind. Just the Berlin Wall. I'm sure I'll get the connection to evolution soon enough.
| 54 |
Spare O'Lake Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:43:35pm |
re: #24 JasonA
Question for those of you who've changed your minds; what did it? I doubt there was a "Road to Damascus" style epiphany, but what got the ball rolling? My mother and business partner go further and further into denial territory with each passing day and I'd like to shift that momentum in the other direction if I can help it.
I have a couple of suggestions:
1. Mother - Tell her you'll clean up your room if she stops denying AGW.
2. Business Partner - Offer to return the month's cash receipts if they stop denying AGW.
| 55 |
Varek Raith Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:44:05pm |
re: #53 JasonA
Ah, nevermind. Just the Berlin Wall. I'm sure I'll get the connection to evolution soon enough.
By the end of it you'll likely never, ever take Stein seriously again... Assuming, of course, that you ever did. :)
| 56 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:44:09pm |
re: #24 JasonA
Question for those of you who've changed your minds; what did it? I doubt there was a "Road to Damascus" style epiphany, but what got the ball rolling? My mother and business partner go further and further into denial territory with each passing day and I'd like to shift that momentum in the other direction if I can help it.
My respect for scientific research's power of aggregate knowledge, and an aversion to conspiracy theories, did it for me.
Going along with the politics of what to do about AGW is something else, though. My wastchword in considering people trying to save the world is Mencken's precept:
When A annoys or injures B on the pretense of saving or improving X, A is a scoundrel.
| 57 |
freetoken Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:45:34pm |
re: #46 Thanos
Understandable. I really wasn't concerned about the subject until a few years (~5) ago. Then, as it has become a central battleground in the Culture Wars I've become more interested in AGW and especially in the dynamic of the argumentation.
| 58 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:45:45pm |
re: #54 Spare O'Lake
2. Business Partner - Offer to return the month's cash receipts if they stop denying AGW.
What if I already spent them?
| 59 |
The Sanity Inspector Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:47:13pm |
Not going to make it to the open thread, so let me drop this bit of self-pimpage here:
| 60 |
Spare O'Lake Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:48:05pm |
re: #58 JasonA
What if I already spent them?
Then coping with AGW denial will probably be the least of your problems.
| 61 |
Lone Ranger Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:50:18pm |
That's a nice propaganda clip. How about equal time for a study that is based EXCLUSIVELY on Greenland ice cores: [Link: www.foresight.org...]
Ooops - this doesn't support the man-made global warming fantasy. So - it must be discarded.
| 64 |
freetoken Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:51:22pm |
re: #61 Lone Ranger
That's a nice propaganda clip. How about equal time for a study that is based EXCLUSIVELY on Greenland ice cores:
Which is exactly the problem. AGW is about global changes, which is why I linked to the ACCE report upstream.
| 65 |
Jaerik Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:51:44pm |
re: #55 Varek Raith
By the end of it you'll likely never, ever take Stein seriously again... Assuming, of course, that you ever did. :)
I never saw the movie, but I stopped taking him seriously when he became the face of "free credit report" consumer scams.
| 66 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:52:02pm |
re: #59 The Sanity Inspector
Not going to make it to the open thread, so let me drop this bit of self-pimpage here:
Um, if I may humbly offer some input, I believe the US senate recently apologized to the Native American population. Also, we are sending them the cash we owe them, finally!
Great site. i like the angel very much.
| 67 |
Varek Raith Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:53:03pm |
re: #65 Jaerik
I never saw the movie, but I stopped taking him seriously when he became the face of "free credit report" consumer scams.
Oh, yeah! I forgot that he did those! :)
| 68 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:54:10pm |
re: #66 prairiefire
Um, if I may humbly offer some input, I believe the US senate recently apologized to the Native American population. Also, we are sending them the cash we owe them, finally!
Great site. i like the angel very much.
got any links?...the money for the Black Hills sits in a bank collecting interest and the Sioux won't take it
| 70 |
Jaerik Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:54:29pm |
re: #61 Lone Ranger
That's a nice propaganda clip.
You can't be dumb enough to respond to a movie about "medieval warming" being a data irregularity caused by overly-localized readings... by saying we should use more localized data.
...can you? Really?
| 71 |
wee fury Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:55:17pm |
re: #68 albusteve
got any links?...the money for the Black Hills sits in a bank collecting interest and the Sioux won't take it
Correct.
| 73 |
Mocking Jay Mon, Dec 28, 2009 8:56:49pm |
| 74 |
Summer Seale Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:00:16pm |
I was taking a break from signing even more books just now when somebody pointed out this video to me about the medieval stuff and vikings and "global warming", and I just felt I hadda say something! Sometimes, stuff just has to come out of my mouth, yannow?
You betcha!
So I'm watching the video and I'm thinking, yannow...there musta been a reason it was called Greenland! That's what I heard, anyway. Back then, everything was warmer and things were better because we were closer to God's time of creation and his new plan for us. In fact, that's really what this is about: it was just better back then, don'tcha think? Nowadays, we have all sorts of liberal things that just ruined it for us: socialized medicine, welfare, not executing criminals for being thieves...stuff like that. It's ruined our happy society and gosh darnit, I want that society back!
So back to the Vikings: I betcha they didn't believe in this carbon tax thing. Heck, I betcha they didn't even have taxes! And did their world suffer? No! Of course not. They went on and made a great impact on world culture that has lasted until now because Greenland still has that name! That's what I'm talking about!
That's why only lower taxes will save this planet and this country we love! You know, I betcha they wish they had been Americans because life was just so perfect for them, but they probably knew that if they were American, it would have been even perfecter!
Anyway, that's what I hadda say before I rush off again. Hope that you remember all that on voting day!
| 75 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:00:36pm |
re: #70 Jaerik
I’m looking at the temperature record as read from this central Greenland ice core. It gives us about as close as we can come to a direct, experimental measurement of temperature at that one spot for the past 50,000 years. As far as I know, the data are not adjusted according to any fancy computer climate model or anything else like that.
How can you argue with un-fancy data from one spot?
/
| 76 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:01:17pm |
re: #74 Summer
I love your Sarah Palin impressions. You're as good as Tina Fey!
| 77 |
William Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:02:06pm |
Peter Sinclair is not a scientist:
Peter Sinclair is a long time advocate of environmental awareness and energy alternatives. An award winning graphic artist, illustrator, and animator, Mr. Sinclair runs Greenman Studio from his home in Midland, MI.
Mr. Sinclair’s syndicated cartoons have appeared worldwide, and his work has been profiled in numerous publications, including the New York Times. He is the producer of the YouTube series, "Climate Denial Crock of the Week".
[Link: www.desmogblog.com...]
And this seems to contradict his "crock of the week":
The 2007 report used more recent temperature reconstructions including Esper et al. (2002), Bradley et al. (2003a), Jones and Mann (2004), D’Arrigo et al. (2006). The IPCC concluded the warmest period prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100...The evidence currently available indicates that NH mean temperatures during medieval times (950–1100) were indeed warm in a 2-kyr context and even warmer in relation to the less sparse but still limited evidence of widespread average cool conditions in the 17th century (Osborn and Briffa, 2006).
[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]
| 79 |
zephirus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:02:31pm |
re: #10 The Sanity Inspector
You might take a look at the latest IPCC report, in particular the 2007 Synthesis Report which includes a Summary for Policymakers. This has all the major findings. Al Gore's book is fine for non-science folks, but IIRC he suggests a somewhat stronger connection between observed changes in hurricane intensity and warming - this is still being debated. Other than that, a good intro. Jim Hansen has a new book out "Storms of my Grandchildren" that is supposed to be very accessible to non-experts.
| 81 |
Spare O'Lake Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:05:26pm |
re: #70 Jaerik
You can't be dumb enough to respond to a movie about "medieval warming" being a data irregularity caused by overly-localized readings... by saying we should use more localized data.
...can you? Really?
As I understand it medieval warming did occur according to local reports, but was not a global phenomenon because the Antarctic data does not support a similar amount of warming in the southern hemisphere.
| 82 |
freetoken Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:06:34pm |
re: #77 William
Peter Sinclair is not a scientist:
That is true. He is fulfilling the role of reporter and advocate and teacher, and doing those jobs well.
I linked to a major summary report by scientists upstream. Recommend that you read it.
| 83 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:07:05pm |
Somebody please delete my #80! That went horribly wrong. Please yahoo or google "historic native american lawsuit" for december, 2009, and the info will come up.
| 84 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:07:36pm |
And the Bears win in OT! After Hunter Hillenmeyer force an Adrian Peterson fumble, Jay Cutler throws a TD pass to Devin Aramashadu for a 36-30 win.
| 85 |
Obdicut Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:07:42pm |
re: #77 William
If you want to restrict the debate to just scientists, the debate is over and AGW is real.
| 86 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:08:36pm |
Folding Electric (3 wheeled) Car from 1920s
We had the freaking technology 90 years ago! I blame Goodyear, Firestone, Ford, GM, and Chrysler. Oh and Standard Oil.
| 87 |
Velvet Elvis Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:08:44pm |
re: #77 William
Peter Sinclair is not a scientist:
Neither was my 9th grade biology teacher but I learned a lot from him.
| 88 |
Jaerik Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:09:27pm |
re: #77 William
Peter Sinclair is not a scientist:
No, but he's not offering his own data or opinions on the matter either, but rather quoting scientists and scientific journals. So while I understand shooting the messenger might be an attractive rhetorical device, it's not a very effective one.
| 89 |
Spare O'Lake Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:09:53pm |
re: #85 Obdicut
If you want to restrict the debate to just scientists, the debate is over and AGW is real.
When is science considered sufficiently "settled" to the extent that further debate is intolerable.
| 90 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:09:58pm |
re: #83 prairiefire
Somebody please delete my #80! That went horribly wrong. Please yahoo or google "historic native american lawsuit" for december, 2009, and the info will come up.
[Link: www1.voanews.com...]
| 91 |
Varek Raith Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:10:21pm |
re: #86 Racer X
Folding Electric (3 wheeled) Car from 1920s
[Video]We had the freaking technology 90 years ago! I blame Goodyear, Firestone, Ford, GM, and Chrysler. Oh and Standard Oil.
Go go gadget car!
:)
| 92 |
Jaerik Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:10:31pm |
re: #89 Spare O'Lake
When is science considered sufficiently "settled" to the extent that further debate is intolerable.
Would you say evolution is pretty much settled? 'cuz there's about equal evidence at this point for both.
| 93 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:11:26pm |
re: #87 Conservative Moonbat
Neither was my 9th grade biology teacher but I learned a lot from him.
neither is Al Gore or Capt. Kangaroo...you don't need to be a scientist to teach science
| 94 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:11:46pm |
| 95 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:11:55pm |
| 96 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:12:27pm |
re: #85 Obdicut
If you want to restrict the debate to just scientists, the debate is over and AGW is real.
I think you mean restrict the debate to politicians
| 97 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:13:22pm |
re: #95 prairiefire
Excellent. Thank you.
just cut and paste the addy of the article....Charles does the rest
| 98 |
Obdicut Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:14:43pm |
re: #89 Spare O'Lake
When there's an enormous sufficiency of evidence, as there is for AGW. The debate moves, to the details. Just as we're not trying to distinguish whether or not germs, viruses, and other microscopic organisms really do cause disease, we're confident that we understand the basics of the climate enough to be able the predictions we have.
These basics are enough to make highly accurate models that can even adapt and factor in volcanic eruptions; they have been tested and shown to be accurate.
There is always questioning in science, and many of the effects of climate change are being disputed now-- we know there will be warming, but what will the warming do? Accelerate due to outgassing and other factors is a sad and real possibility, but so are other more hopeful scenarios.
If science were never able to be called 'settled', we'd never progress in science. But we do, and climate scientists should be lauded for the work they've done in alerting humanity to a grave danger, rather than be ridiculed and accused of being mercenaries, incompetents, or conspiratorial blackguards.
| 99 |
Obdicut Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:15:13pm |
re: #96 albusteve
No, I don't. There is scientific consensus.
| 100 |
srjh Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:15:29pm |
re: #96 albusteve
No, scientists is correct. Unfortunately there's political capital in the denial movement, particularly from the far right, so it's far from the case with the politicians.
| 101 |
prairiefire Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:16:16pm |
Well, I tried and it kept flying back to the margins and not sticking for some reason. Cut and paste worked last night. Off to slumberland. I am interested in hearing your thoughts re: that lawsuit as I know you have stated your interest in these matters.
| 102 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:16:26pm |
re: #94 Racer X
Make that 100 years ago.
1909 Baker Electric- from Jay Leno's Garage
[Video]
I love Leno for his love of cars...he spends wisely and does all America a favor...cool guy
| 103 |
Charles Johnson Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:16:56pm |
re: #61 Lone Ranger
Exactly one year after your last comment.
Where have you been, asleep under a tree?
| 104 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:18:17pm |
| 105 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:19:04pm |
re: #77 William
Peter Sinclair is not a scientist:
I don't know who selectively edited that Wiki entry but the text you pasted in italics that reads below is incomplete:
the warmest period prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100...The evidence currently available indicates that NH mean temperatures during medieval times (950–1100) were indeed warm in a 2-kyr context and even warmer in relation to the less sparse but still limited evidence of widespread average cool conditions in the 17th century (Osborn and Briffa, 2006).
The actually selection is found in Chapter 6 of the Climate Change Paleoclimate 2007, page 469, which reads:
The uncertainty associated with present palaeoclimate estimates of NH mean temperatures is signifi cant, especially for the period
prior to 1600 when data are scarce (Mann et al., 1999; Briff a and Osborn, 2002; Cook et al., 2004a). However, Figure 6.10 shows that the warmest period prior to the 20th century very likely occurred between 950 and 1100, but temperatures were probably between 0.1°C and 0.2°C below the 1961 to 1990 mean and signifi cantly below the level shown by instrumental data after 1980.The evidence currently available indicates that NH mean temperatures during medieval times (950–1100) were indeed warm in a 2-kyr context and even warmer in relation to the less sparse but still limited evidence of widespread average cool conditions in the 17th century (Osborn and Briff a, 2006). However, the evidence is not sufficient to support a conclusion that hemispheric mean temperatures were as warm, or the extent of warm regions as expansive, as those in the 20th century as a whole, during any period in medieval times (Jones et al., 2001; Bradley et al., 2003a,b; Osborn and Briff a, 2006).
| 108 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:20:41pm |
re: #103 Charles
Exactly one year after your last comment.
Where have you been, asleep under a tree?
Since he used said comment to spout Denier propaganda, I'd guess he was asleep under an oil derrick instead.
| 109 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:21:42pm |
re: #106 Obdicut
Thanks for running that one down, Gus.
You're welcome.
So it's complete BS to say it contradicts this Crock of the Week. In fact it's the other way around. Even the graph on page 468 supports this.
| 110 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:22:37pm |
| 111 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:23:19pm |
re: #109 Gus 802
That's a very familiar quote-mining technique, reminiscent of the creationist threads.
| 112 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:24:27pm |
re: #110 albusteve
Gus is a googlin fool...and I mean that
...in a good way...he is faster than a speeding bullet
| 113 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:24:57pm |
re: #111 jaunte
That's a very familiar quote-mining technique, reminiscent of the creationist threads.
Yeah, it is. Selective cherry picking. Was trying to look at the edit history in Wiki.
| 114 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:25:19pm |
| 115 |
ryannon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:25:22pm |
re: #103 Charles
Exactly one year after your last comment.
Where have you been, asleep under a tree?
Sharing great bongfuls of good stuff with Tonto.
| 116 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:25:52pm |
re: #112 albusteve
...in a good way...he is faster than a speeding bullet
Sometimes. Usually right about the time I wake up or get a second wind.
| 117 |
McJeff Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:28:11pm |
I live in Maryland. A lot of the global warming deniers crowed about how the recent GW summit in DC was put off by a blizzard that dropped 2 feet of snow, setting a record both for snowfall and lowest temperature.
Within two weeks, the snow was gone. The average temperature was in the low 40s.
About 20 years ago, when I was a kid, the ground froze in November and stayed frozen until March. Last winter, we never had a period longer than 3 days where the temperature didn't rise above freezing.
Since I was a young teenager, I made money mowing lawns. From 2006-2008 I was out of business because from June through September, there wasn't enough rain to grow the grass. The summer of 2009 was rainy and relatively cool, which the deniers love. They don't like it when I point out the average temperature for November was in the 50s and 2009 is still on its way to be close to the record of hottest year.
I must admit to both thinking there is a lot we don't know about global warming, and that there is as much sleaze and dishonesty among its proponents as among the deniers. But does it even require explanation why flat faced denial is stupid, dishonest, and dangerous?
| 119 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:33:53pm |
OMG, someone linked to Conservapedia in the spinoff links.
| 120 |
Racer X Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:33:56pm |
The 10 Most Successful Potheads on the Planet… Cool Enough to Admit It
An unemployed porno addict, sitting in his parents’ basement, playing video games, eating Lucky Charms out of the box with one hand while he lazily scratches his balls with the other. A dread-lock having, patchouli oil smelling, tie-die wearing, Phish listening, hula-hoop twirling space cadet. A burger flipping, acne having, socially inept, friendless loser… These are the common stereotypes associated with the term ‘pothead’. In a recent piece we published on pot farms, a debate erupted in the comments section, with some arguing that if you smoke pot, you’ll be poor, gay, and “washing dishes until you’re dead.”
Where these stereotypes originated remains a mystery to us. In reality, they couldn’t be further from the truth. Not only have 42% of Americans admitted to trying pot, but pot smokers have gone on to become some of the most successful people in our society. We’re not talking about Willie Nelson and Snoop. These guys are on the Forbes 500, they’re leading the free world, and they prove that all existing pothead stereotypes are nothing more than myths.
| 122 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:36:13pm |
re: #120 Racer X
The 10 Most Successful Potheads on the Planet… Cool Enough to Admit It
Rick Steves?
| 123 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:39:35pm |
re: #122 Gus 802
Rick Steves?
they conveniently ignore Kieth Richards...he was moderately successful I'd say
| 125 |
Charles Johnson Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:43:04pm |
re: #119 Gus 802
OMG, someone linked to Conservapedia in the spinoff links.
That's the last time. I'm really sick of people who think they can use my own software to stick their thumbs in my eye.
| 126 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:43:10pm |
re: #119 Gus 802
OMG, someone linked to Conservapedia in the spinoff links.
Well he got downdinged for it. Come on out, EE! Face us and debunk AGW, if you can. Don't just snipe from the spinoff links. Come on down and join the party!
| 127 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:44:39pm |
re: #125 Charles
That's the last time. I'm really sick of people who think they can use my own software to stick their thumbs in my eye.
Saw that coming. He was spamming the site with spinoff links on a daily basis.
| 128 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:44:39pm |
re: #125 Charles
I already had the grill warmed up. We'll have chargrilled EE in 15 minutes. As always, place any drink orders now.
| 130 |
Dancing along the light of day Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:45:41pm |
re: #128 Dark_Falcon
LOL!
Do you do potato salad with the grilled troll?
| 131 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:45:45pm |
| 132 |
Spare O'Lake Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:46:46pm |
re: #98 Obdicut
When there's an enormous sufficiency of evidence, as there is for AGW. The debate moves, to the details. Just as we're not trying to distinguish whether or not germs, viruses, and other microscopic organisms really do cause disease, we're confident that we understand the basics of the climate enough to be able the predictions we have.
These basics are enough to make highly accurate models that can even adapt and factor in volcanic eruptions; they have been tested and shown to be accurate.
There is always questioning in science, and many of the effects of climate change are being disputed now-- we know there will be warming, but what will the warming do? Accelerate due to outgassing and other factors is a sad and real possibility, but so are other more hopeful scenarios.
If science were never able to be called 'settled', we'd never progress in science. But we do, and climate scientists should be lauded for the work they've done in alerting humanity to a grave danger, rather than be ridiculed and accused of being mercenaries, incompetents, or conspiratorial blackguards.
On a gut level I agree with you that the existence of the current global warming trend is beyond serious debate. The overwhelming evidence to me, a layman, is found in the melting of the arctic ice and the shrinking of the glaciers. The theory that the primary cause is human activity, however, is to my mind not proven to the same degree of certainty, and therefore does yet call for further debate and experimentation...even while we are in the meantime obliged to take steps to try to slow or arrest the rate of warming.
| 133 |
Ojoe Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:46:47pm |
It is reputed however that the Romans grew grapes in England.
Good night all
| 134 |
Dancing along the light of day Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:47:06pm |
| 135 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:47:13pm |
re: #131 Gus 802
We can remind Jeff that it's always darkest just before things go completely black.
| 136 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:48:27pm |
| 137 |
Dancing along the light of day Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:48:37pm |
re: #135 jaunte
We can remind Jeff that it's always darkest just before things go completely black.
| 138 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:50:00pm |
re: #133 Ojoe
It is reputed however that the Romans grew grapes in England.
Good night all
They're back!
[Link: www.english-wine.com...]
| 139 |
Dancing along the light of day Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:50:23pm |
re: #137 Floral Giraffe
[Video]
Bad you tube!
Skips like my own CD player.
AVOID.
Sorry for linking. :(
| 140 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:50:27pm |
re: #133 Ojoe
It is reputed however that the Romans grew grapes in England.
Good night all
They did indeed. And in recent times, wine grapes have again been grown in England. Heck, here in the US we have wines grown on Long Island nowadays.
| 141 |
Ojoe Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:50:35pm |
re: #117 McJeff
Some think that differential warming (more in lower latitudes) does set off an ice age; it does take energy to evaporate all the water that eventually forms glaciers, and it takes energy to transport it on the winds to the higher latitudes.
Anyway it is complicated.
Good night again.
| 144 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:51:44pm |
Congratulations to Hot Air, They had a thread about Michelle Obama's appearance on Iron Chef and although there's lot's of seething irrational hatred for the woman most of the comments are not racist. Good work, guys!
| 145 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:53:37pm |
re: #144 Killgore Trout
Congratulations to Hot Air, They had a thread about Michelle Obama's appearance on Iron Chef and although there's lot's of seething irrational hatred for the woman most of the comments are not racist. Good work, guys!
Uh oh. Check out the 5th from the bottom.
| 146 |
zephirus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:53:45pm |
A linguistics professor was lecturing to his class one day. "In
English," he said, "A double negative forms a positive.
In some languages, though, such as Russian, a double negative is
still a negative.
However, there is no language wherein a double positive can form
a negative."
A voice from the back of the room piped up...
"Yeah, right."
| 147 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:55:40pm |
re: #145 Gus 802
Yeah, there's some borderline stuff but at least it's not the usual racial slurs. I've noticed a few bannings there over the past week or two. I think they're cracking down on the racism again.
| 148 |
goddamnedfrank Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:57:43pm |
re: #144 Killgore Trout
Congratulations to Hot Air, They had a thread about Michelle Obama's appearance on Iron Chef and although there's lot's of seething irrational hatred for the woman most of the comments are not racist. Good work, guys!
Wow, talk about damning with faint praise!
| 149 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:59:06pm |
re: #147 Killgore Trout
Yeah, there's some borderline stuff but at least it's not the usual racial slurs. I've noticed a few bannings there over the past week or two. I think they're cracking down on the racism again.
Like ceiling cat, we're watching them. /
| 150 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 9:59:27pm |
re: #147 Killgore Trout
Yeah, there's some borderline stuff but at least it's not the usual racial slurs. I've noticed a few bannings there over the past week or two. I think they're cracking down on the racism again.
Good. Racism should not be tolerated and I'm glad to see HA taking out the trash. It's still not a good place, but it is less bad without the racists.
| 151 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:00:02pm |
| 152 |
albusteve Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:01:02pm |
| 153 |
Dancing along the light of day Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:03:12pm |
re: #147 Killgore Trout
Pretty please, just don't be sneaking over there & inflaming them?
| 154 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:03:37pm |
re: #148 goddamnedfrank
It's still plenty ugly.
| 155 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:04:46pm |
re: #153 Floral Giraffe
I'm pretty sure I'm blocked over there. I haven't tried to log in after my stunt a few months back. My work there is done.
| 156 |
ArchangelMichael Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:05:28pm |
re: #144 Killgore Trout
Congratulations to Hot Air, They had a thread about Michelle Obama's appearance on Iron Chef and although there's lot's of seething irrational hatred for the woman most of the comments are not racist. Good work, guys!
LOL. "So you aren't being racist assholes today? What do you want a cookie?"
I guess our expectations of them are low.
| 157 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:07:18pm |
mushroom time lapse compilation
| 158 |
Dancing along the light of day Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:09:21pm |
From the stalkers....
"Hot Air delinked LGF today, BTW. It was long overdue. Michelle and Ed Morrisey had the patience of saints."
| 159 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:11:08pm |
re: #158 Floral Giraffe
From the stalkers...
"Hot Air delinked LGF today, BTW. It was long overdue. Michelle and Ed Morrisey had the patience of saints."
Awe, shucks.
| 160 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:11:21pm |
re: #157 Killgore Trout
Toadies, good music choice for a mushroom video.
| 161 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:11:24pm |
re: #158 Floral Giraffe
From the stalkers...
"Hot Air delinked LGF today, BTW. It was long overdue. Michelle and Ed Morrisey had the patience of saints."
Ah, so they did. We must have upset them somehow.
| 162 |
Charles Johnson Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:11:56pm |
| 164 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:13:25pm |
| 165 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:17:22pm |
No Rain
| 166 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:20:45pm |
re: #165 Killgore Trout
Well, 'blind' certainly describes Hot Air and the Stalkers. Actually, "Hot Air and the Stalkers" sounds like a good name for a loser band. >:D
| 167 |
Charles Johnson Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:21:54pm |
The latest idiocy going around the right wing blogs is that Obama said the NW253 terrorist was "an isolated extremist." They're trying to trick people into thinking Obama was saying he acted alone.
And they just completely forget to mention that in the very same speech he also said the US would hunt down all of those who helped plot the attack and bring them to justice.
| 168 |
Killgore Trout Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:24:08pm |
A Long December
And it's one more day up in the canyons
And it's one more night in Hollywood
If you think that I could be forgiven
I wish you would
Namaste, y'all
| 169 |
Charles Johnson Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:25:44pm |
re: #167 Charles
The latest idiocy going around the right wing blogs is that Obama said the NW253 terrorist was "an isolated extremist." They're trying to trick people into thinking Obama was saying he acted alone.
And they just completely forget to mention that in the very same speech he also said the US would hunt down all of those who helped plot the attack and bring them to justice.
In fact, 'captdiggs' tried to plant this deceptive crap right here at LGF in an earlier thread:
[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]
| 170 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:25:47pm |
re: #168 Killgore Trout
A Long December
[Video]
A long December and there's reason to believe
Maybe this year will be better than the last
I can't remember the last thing that you said as you were leaving
Oh the days go by so fastAnd it's one more day up in the canyons
And it's one more night in Hollywood
If you think that I could be forgiven
I wish you would
Namaste, y'all
Great song, one of my favorites. Goodnight, Killgore. Sleep well, friend.
| 171 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:26:46pm |
re: #167 Charles
The latest idiocy going around the right wing blogs is that Obama said the NW253 terrorist was "an isolated extremist," trying to trick people into thinking Obama was saying he acted alone.
And they just completely forget to mention that in the very same speech he also said the US would hunt down all of those who helped plot the attack and bring them to justice.
Saw that earlier. Some article in the Washington Slimes. Everything's on hair triggers now in their reactions to the president. Nothing much he can do, say, or even wear that won't be met with criticism. Like him not wearing a tie today became a topic for the irrational mobs. Even if he approves an airstrike it's returned with a "not big enough" response.
| 172 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:26:54pm |
re: #169 Charles
In fact, 'captdiggs' tried to plant this deceptive crap right here at LGF in an earlier thread:
[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]
Perhaps he believed it in error. He would not have deliberately lied, IMO.
| 174 |
ArchangelMichael Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:28:14pm |
re: #167 Charles
The latest idiocy going around the right wing blogs is that Obama said the NW253 terrorist was "an isolated extremist." They're trying to trick people into thinking Obama was saying he acted alone.
And they just completely forget to mention that in the very same speech he also said the US would hunt down all of those who helped plot the attack and bring them to justice.
It was all over Fox tonight too. Ranting about the "isolated incident" thing.
| 175 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:28:48pm |
| 176 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:28:50pm |
re: #169 Charles
Karl Rove is on Fox spinning it that way, even with a super underneath reading:
"Hunt on for terror suspects after failed bomb plot"
[Link: www.thefoxnation.com...]
| 177 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:30:26pm |
re: #174 ArchangelMichael
It was all over Fox tonight too. Ranting about the "isolated incident" thing.
So out of 791 words they found two words to latch onto.
| 178 |
ArchangelMichael Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:31:19pm |
re: #172 Dark_Falcon
Perhaps he believed it in error. He would not have deliberately lied, IMO.
It looks like they are taking "isolated" to mean "acted alone".
You keep saying that word I do not think it means what you think it means.
Much like when Luap Nor and Alex Jones were ranting about the term "global governance" as if it meant the same thing as "global government".
You keep saying that word I do not think it means what you think it means.
| 179 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:32:17pm |
OT: The UK has taken up a modified version of our new M110 as their Designated Marksman's Rifle. An evolved version of Eugene Stoner's SR-25, it is an outstanding rifle sure to aid the UK and US in the defense of Freedom.
| 180 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:35:04pm |
re: #176 jaunte
Karl Rove is on Fox spinning it that way, even with a super underneath reading:
"Hunt on for terror suspects after failed bomb plot"
[Link: www.thefoxnation.com...]
I'm so sick of it. It's just like when we never heard nothing but negativity about Bush although from a flipped ideology. But even that's tenuous because Obama is continuing a lot of Bush's policies regardless. Obama has also been very good with the military including the DoD budget and has a very good relationship with Secretary Gates who himself was a Bush appointee. Obama has turned out to be more of a hawk than we expected.
| 181 |
ArchangelMichael Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:36:40pm |
re: #179 Dark_Falcon
OT: The UK has taken up a modified version of our new M110 as their Designated Marksman's Rifle. An evolved version of Eugene Stoner's SR-25, it is an outstanding rifle sure to aid the UK and US in the defense of Freedom.
Never used one of them but I'm not a fan of taking assault rifles and trying to turn them into... well... rifle rifles.
| 182 |
jaunte Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:38:28pm |
re: #180 Gus 802
When you start reading their reporting carefully, it's like one of those high school examples of yellow journalism from the Hearst era.
After initial silence, President Obama made his first public comments on the foiled Detroit airliner terror attack and the violent protests in Iran. After three days of virtual silence on the Christmas Day terrorist scare, President Obama emerged in public today, seeking to reassure Americans that his administration is doing all it can to prevent an attack and to learn lessons from the attempted downing of the airliner.
"We will not rest until we find all who were involved and hold them accountable," said Obama, who is on holiday in Hawaii with his family.
| 183 |
Gus Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:39:45pm |
re: #182 jaunte
When you start reading their reporting carefully, it's like one of those high school examples of yellow journalism from the Hearst era.
Like I said this afternoon. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. NRO was complaining that he didn't speak. When he finally spoke they jumped on him for two words.
| 184 |
Dark_Falcon Mon, Dec 28, 2009 10:44:30pm |
re: #181 ArchangelMichael
Never used one of them but I'm not a fan of taking assault rifles and trying to turn them into... well... rifle rifles.
Actually, Eugene Stoner originally designed his system for the 7.62mm cartridge. It was Armalite's idea to downsize it. Stoner had been in the Army and was used to the M1 Garand and its .30 caliber cartridge. The M110 is very accurate, according to the coverage I've read, and its ability to fire semiauto and take a 20-round mag ensures that it can outperform the competition in both accuracy and firepower.
| 185 |
MKELLY Tue, Dec 29, 2009 7:10:50am |
Wilson, A.T., Hendy, C.H. and Reynolds, C.P. 1979. Short-term climate change and New Zealand temperatures during the last millennium. Nature 279: 315-317.
Description
Temperatures derived from an 18O/16O profile through a stalagmite found in a New Zealand cave (40.67°S, 172.43°E) revealed the Medieval Warm Period to have occurred between AD 1050 and 1400 and to have been 0.75°C warmer than the Current Warm Period.
18O/16O are the isotopes of oxygen. The MWP was global and was warmer than today.
| 187 |
jpkoch Tue, Dec 29, 2009 9:24:13am |
re: #18 freetoken
Funny that the Franz Josef Glacier teleconnects to climate variations in North America and Europe. The Western Peninsula of the Antarctic, where most of the climate scientists collect their data is influenced to a large degree by ENSO. It exhibits an Mp Climate regime (Maritime Polar), and it is not representative of the interior regions of the Antarctic, which is Continental Polar (or Cp).
If you want the truth, the SH has gotten a head start on the NH as far as cooling is concerned. Since the late 1980s, the SH and NH temps have strongly diverged. And since 2003, the oceans have generally cooled (as compared to the previous 20 years). This does make sense as the SH is primarily water. So, in effect the Southern Oceans have been slowly exhausting their stored heat energy, while the NH land masses have continued to warm. Changes in the QBO and AO have steered ENSO events towards La Nina, which most probably will dominate ENSO these next few decades. And as the oceans continue to slowly cool, the land masses will follow.
While the cold December this year is just a "weather" event, changes in both the AO (strongly negative) combined with a rather compacted El Nino (evident only in the Nino 3.4 regions) indicate that the slowly cooling oceans are having an effect.
| 188 |
jpkoch Tue, Dec 29, 2009 9:34:48am |
re: #15 Linden Arden
There has been plenty of winter snow in many places in the Rockies and West Coast these last few years. Las Vegas, however is in the desert. And deserts tend to be very dry -not a great place to plan a large city. What we are seeing out West is a combination of environmental restrictions (on reservoirs for instance), and urban growth (Phoenix, Tuscon, Las Vegas). There problem isn't too much water, but too many people competing for that water.
The Western Climate regime is in part governed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO. When the PDO is negative La Nina events dominate, and cold maritime polar air masses build into the 4-Corner regions of the West. This area of High Pressure can lead to Winter or Spring drought. When the PDO is positive, El Nino events dominate, which lead to heavy winter rainfalls and mountains snows. The resultant growth in winter and spring vegetation provides fuel for summer time brush fires.
The West is a very difficult place for land management; if they're not fighting fires during the summer, there are mud slides in the winter. And cold winters mean drought for the southwest quadrant of the West.
| 189 |
Charles Johnson Tue, Dec 29, 2009 9:48:59am |
As usual, a swarm of deniers dumps long-debunked talking points and a few insults at the end of a climate change thread. They do this every time.
| 190 |
MKelly Tue, Dec 29, 2009 10:27:52am |
I am not awear of the debunking of the isotopes of oxygen.
| 191 |
freetoken Tue, Dec 29, 2009 12:26:15pm |
| 192 |
freetoken Tue, Dec 29, 2009 12:33:00pm |
re: #190 MKelly
The report to which I linked, which surmised that the MWP signal was absent in the south, summarizes quite a bit of research since 1979.
| 193 |
MKELLY Tue, Dec 29, 2009 1:12:40pm |
Haberzettl et al. write that "the sediment record of Laguna Potrok Aike reveals an unprecedented sensitive continuous high resolution lake level, vegetation and climate record for southern Patagonia since AD 400." This history indicates that the climate of the region fluctuated rapidly from the beginning of the record right up to the start of the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA, which was proposed by Stine (1998) to have begun at about AD 870). This interval of time corresponds with the Dark Ages Cold Period of Europe. It was followed, of course, by the MCA, or what Europeans called the Medieval Warm Period, which was most strongly expressed in the Laguna Potrok Aike data from AD 1240 to 1410, during which period maxima of total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), carbon/nitrogen ratio (C/N) and δ13Corg indicated, in the words of the ten researchers, "low lake levels and warm and dry climate
| 194 |
Charles Johnson Tue, Dec 29, 2009 2:08:18pm |
re: #193 MKELLY
Do you think it isn't obvious that you're copying and pasting talking points from notorious climate denial websites?
This quote comes from co2science.org, a front group for Exxon-Mobil:
[Link: www.co2science.org...]
| 195 |
Almost Killed by Space Hookers Tue, Dec 29, 2009 3:20:14pm |
For those who are interested, this is yet another example of a deliberate attempt to obfuscate the truth, sew confusion or otherwise just lie.
Here is the actual science. This is the Mann paper that takes into account the recommendations of the National Academy. Note, their reccomendations did *not* overturn Mann's original findings.
Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric
and global surface temperature variations
over the past two millennia
[Link: www.pnas.org...]
Here is the National Academy's report on proxy reconstructions
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
[Link: www.nap.edu...]
You can download this entire, very readable report in PDF format for free.
| 196 |
Almost Killed by Space Hookers Tue, Dec 29, 2009 3:31:14pm |
Just to tie things together,
This is one of the best papers from 1998. It lays out exactly how we can tell an anthropogenic warming signal from those of the fossil and proxy record.
Since that time, the predictions of the paper have been verified.
[Link: www.st-andrews.ac.uk...]
This paper has 390 citations.
Reported in Science, and two years later, the following paper which refines and verifies the claims of the first was cited 280 times. It goes more deeply into the roles of El Nino and La Nina.
[Link: courses.eas.ualberta.ca...]
These papers are very readable. The methodology is plainly discussed. No data is hidden. On the contrary, like any good scientific paper, the data is used front and center to make the case. The whole story is right there for anyone to read.
| 197 |
Dr_Applebreath Thu, Dec 31, 2009 1:06:34pm |
I've read that China has been building new coal-burning plants at the rate of about one new power plant every ten days for the last decade, so naturally there's a lot more CO2 in the atmosphere. But the teabagging deniers point out that temperatures haven't risen since 1998. Why is that?
| 198 |
Dr_Applebreath Thu, Dec 31, 2009 1:17:25pm |
Scary news from the New York Times, Published: June 11, 2006 - "Pollution From Chinese Coal Casts a Global Shadow"
Already, China uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.
To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants — and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030.
[Link: www.nytimes.com...]
| 199 |
Charles Johnson Thu, Dec 31, 2009 2:45:45pm |
re: #197 Dr_Applebreath
I've read that China has been building new coal-burning plants at the rate of about one new power plant every ten days for the last decade, so naturally there's a lot more CO2 in the atmosphere. But the teabagging deniers point out that temperatures haven't risen since 1998. Why is that?
Because this long-debunked denier's talking point is simply not true.
I have a feeling you really aren't interested in the answer, but here's a video you might want to watch:
| 200 |
Elle Plater Thu, Dec 31, 2009 4:00:55pm |
re: #185 MKELLY
Wilson, A.T., Hendy, C.H. and Reynolds, C.P. 1979. Short-term climate change and New Zealand temperatures during the last millennium. Nature 279: 315-317.
Description
Temperatures derived from an 18O/16O profile through a stalagmite found in a New Zealand cave (40.67°S, 172.43°E) revealed the Medieval Warm Period to have occurred between AD 1050 and 1400 and to have been 0.75°C warmer than the Current Warm Period.18O/16O are the isotopes of oxygen. The MWP was global and was warmer than today.
This post was downdinged yet it contains scientific data relating to NZ. It was downdinged for no other reason other than it shows warming around that period. Can there really ever be an honest debate?
| 201 |
Elle Plater Thu, Dec 31, 2009 4:35:27pm |
re: #189 Charles
As usual, a swarm of deniers dumps long-debunked talking points and a few insults at the end of a climate change thread. They do this every time.
Could also be the time difference. Here in Australia - where it is already 2010 for almost half a day - we are awake when you are asleep. Could it be that more skeptics are not in the US?
Btw what MKELLY wrote hadn't been debunked so why was in instinctively downdinged? Because it didn't fit in with the medieval warm period debunking?
| 202 |
Charles Johnson Thu, Dec 31, 2009 4:54:58pm |
re: #201 Elle Plater
Could also be the time difference. Here in Australia - where it is already 2010 for almost half a day - we are awake when you are asleep. Could it be that more skeptics are not in the US?
No, all of the people who dumped the usual talking points into this thread are in the US.
Btw what MKELLY wrote hadn't been debunked so why was in instinctively downdinged? Because it didn't fit in with the medieval warm period debunking?
Because he's doing nothing but copying and pasting, and is a very well known climate change denier around here. He does this in every thread.
| 203 |
Dr_Applebreath Thu, Dec 31, 2009 8:04:37pm |
Charles @199, thank you for your kind consideration sir.
Those red/blue climate graphs bear an unnatural resemblance to the red/blue National County Voting statistics that tire our eyes with all their redness because they show lots of geography colored by very few voters, as I imagine most of the oceans and deserts are colored by very few thermometers outside so-called civilization in this cool video.
Please post the real info when you get a chance, because for now those Palinist teabangers constantly disinformation us with Kevin Trenberth's own laments about no evidence of warming with their misinformation out of context quotes in stolen emails.
"The fact is we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it's a travesty we can't."
If only we were climate scientists, we would understand the true climate science meaning of such deceptive English sentencing.
| 204 |
Charles Johnson Fri, Jan 1, 2010 10:51:51am |
re: #203 Dr_Applebreath
No surprise here, as you respond by moving the goal posts and dumping more false talking points.
The truth about Trenberth's quoted email is pretty easy to find, but of course you have to want to see it instead of accepting the garbage being fed to you by deniers: Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming.
So to summarise, Trenberth's email says this:
"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't."
After reviewing the discussion in Trenberth 2009, it's apparent that what he meant was this:
"Global warming is still happening - our planet is still accumulating heat. But our observation systems aren't able to comprehensively keep track of where all the energy is going. Consequently, we can't definitively explain why surface temperatures have gone down in the last few years. That's a travesty!"
Skeptics use Trenberth's email to characterise climate scientists as secretive and deceptive. However, when one takes the trouble to acquaint oneself with the science, the opposite becomes apparent. Trenberth outlines his views in a clear, open manner, frankly articulating his frustrations at the limitations of observation systems. Trenberth's opinions didn't need to be illegally stolen and leaked onto the internet. They were already publicly available in the peer reviewed literature - and much less open to misinterpretation than a quote-mined email.
| 205 |
AtadOFF Fri, Jan 1, 2010 2:58:28pm |
Hmmm,
I see your Mann and raise you the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
[Link: www.udel.edu...]
| 206 |
Charles Johnson Fri, Jan 1, 2010 4:38:01pm |
re: #205 AtadOFF
Hmmm,
I see your Mann and raise you the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
[Link: www.udel.edu...]
Not this again.
The Soon and Baliunas study has been debunked over and over in these threads. Yet the deniers just keep showing up and posting it again.
| 207 |
kf Sat, Jan 2, 2010 9:56:28am |
I'm way late on this, and I'm not sure anyone is ever going to read this so I'll keep it as brief as possible. There are numerous factual errors and misrepresentations in this piece. The video implies that the MWP did not actually exist. This is not the case. The video implies that Mann's hockey stick was statistically correct. That is also false. In fact, what he quoted from the NAS is more along the lines of "well Mann's may not be accurate, but there's all this other stuff which affirms it so..." Not mentioned is that most of the other proxies in that multi-proxy graph in IPCC AR4 are dependent upon either the Mann tree data or the Briffa tree data. Both of which have flaws. In point of fact, EVERY single proxy reconstruction that goes back more than 1000 years in AR4 has a tree ring component. Finally, what is left out of this video is the major flaw in these tree ring reconstructions: the divergence problem. If you'll notice, on nearly all of those graphs is a red line at the end. That is not tree ring data. That is observational temperature data. Why is it on the end of just about every graph? Because the signal from tree rings start decreasing around the middle of the 20th century and the tree ring signal and the actual temperature begin a statistically significant divergence. "Hide the decline" was about the divergence problem.
This video is problematic and lacks serious scientific grounding. I would caution anyone from taking it as fact without doing your own research. Some of what is presented in this video is contradicted by the IPCC (such as his conculsions about the MWP).
| 208 |
kf Sat, Jan 2, 2010 10:09:20am |
Sorry, one more point. Mr. Sinclair describes Mann's proxy data as more than just tree-ring data. This is true but misleading. When you remove the tree ring component, there is no hockey stick. One of the recommendations on the panel made reference to in this video is that strip barks not be used in future reconstructions. In Mann's update to his own study, he ignored that recommendation and again employed strip barks. There are problems again with the new reconstruction, centered mainly around the over reliance on strip barks, but again I doubt anyone is going to read this so I'm hesitant to write a couple of paragraphs on it.
| 209 |
Charles Johnson Sat, Jan 2, 2010 4:02:19pm |
re: #207 kf
I'm way late on this, and I'm not sure anyone is ever going to read this so I'll keep it as brief as possible. There are numerous factual errors and misrepresentations in this piece. The video implies that the MWP did not actually exist. This is not the case. The video implies that Mann's hockey stick was statistically correct. That is also false.
This is not true. The hockey stick graph has been confirmed and reinforced by several independent studies. See: Is the hockey stick broken?
Finally, what is left out of this video is the major flaw in these tree ring reconstructions: the divergence problem. If you'll notice, on nearly all of those graphs is a red line at the end. That is not tree ring data. That is observational temperature data. Why is it on the end of just about every graph? Because the signal from tree rings start decreasing around the middle of the 20th century and the tree ring signal and the actual temperature begin a statistically significant divergence. "Hide the decline" was about the divergence problem.
For actual scientific information about the divergence problem, instead of propaganda from deniers, see: Tree-ring proxies and the divergence problem.
| 210 |
Charles Johnson Sat, Jan 2, 2010 4:02:36pm |
re: #208 kf
Sorry, one more point. Mr. Sinclair describes Mann's proxy data as more than just tree-ring data. This is true but misleading. When you remove the tree ring component, there is no hockey stick.
This is also false: Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings?
| 211 |
Charles Johnson Sat, Jan 2, 2010 4:04:43pm |
Once again, we see that weird phenomenon where climate change deniers try to get the last word in a long-dead thread, apparently believing that by doing so they'll be able to change reality.
| 212 |
kf Sun, Jan 3, 2010 1:03:57am |
Charles I'm not trying to get the last word nor am I a "denier." I simply visited LGF, and saw this, and felt compelled to respond. I've been straight with you before and been met with resistance, so I'll again just respond frankly. You seem to just google what I write and paste whatever google turns up to "debunk" it without trying to understand what I'm saying. Since I'm guessing that you will read this I'll spend some time trying to explain some of what I posted.
"The hockey stick graph has been confirmed and reinforced by several independent studies."
This doesn't address the criticisms of the original work, though. Whether or not "independent studies confirm its conclusions" is irrelevant to the fact (and it is a fact) that the MBH study used unsound statistical methodologies to arrive at its conclusions. As M&M showed, if you put red noise into the MBH formula, a hockey stick came out. Random data became a hockey stick. This is an indisputable mathematical fact. As a baseline, you need to realize that the findings of the panel CONFIRMED M&Ms criticism(s) of MBH. In that way, Mr. Sinclair's piece is misleading.
"For actual scientific information about the divergence problem, instead of propaganda from deniers"
That link is a good one; it confirms what I have said. The divergence problem is, currently, unexplained. There are theories as to why there is such a strong divergence, but no answers. Given that the temperature reconstructions rely so heavily on tree-ring proxies, it would seem an incredibly pertinent problem. Hopefully we can all agree on that. My criticism was that Mr. Sinclair failed to include any reference to it. This is an oversight that indicates to me that he either is not at all familiar with the topic he is discussing or he is being purposefully misleading.
"This is also false: Can you make a hockey stick without tree rings?"
That link, however, is a poor one. As I said, there is no reconstruction in the IPCC that does not include tree-ring data that goes back more than 1000 years. If you google for AR4 Chapter 6, you will find the chart that I am referencing. These are the temperature reconstructions used in AR4:
Phil Jones et al, 1998 (tree ring)
Michael Mann et al, 1999 (tree ring)
Keith Briffa, et al 2001 (tree ring)
Esper, et al 2002 (tree ring)
Keith Briffa, 2000 (tree ring)
Michael Mann and Phil Jones, 2003 (tree ring)
Rutherford, et al (Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa) 2005 (tree ring)
Moberg, et al 2005 (tree ring)
D'Arrgo, et al 2006 (tree ring)
Hegerl, et al 2006 (tree ring)
Pollack and Smerdon, 2004 (no tree ring, but does not extend back to MWP)
Oerlemans, 2005 (no tree ring, but does not extend back to MWP)
You will also notice that many of the names overlap; it should thus give you a little pause as to whether there is true "independence" in these studies. There's another problem, though, other than common authors. Namely the repeated use of Mann's tree-ring data and Briffa's tree-ring data. These are the two samples which have come under the most scrutiny. Mann for continuing to rely on strip bark, contrary to the recommendations of the panel and Briffa for using a statistically insignificant sample size as we approach the modern time. The Briffa error was only recently noticed, and you can read more about it. I'm sure you'll only read your sources so I'm guessing its pointless to post a link. It's Yamal. Briffa refused to release the underlying data for ~8 years (similar to Mann's refusal for MBH98). When he did, the error was discovered.
It's late and I'm running out of character spaces so let me know if you're still taking issue with something that I have written. I assure you I am not presenting you with "denier" talking points because I'm not even a denier.
| 213 |
Charles Johnson Sun, Jan 3, 2010 10:51:20am |
re: #212 kf
Charles I'm not trying to get the last word nor am I a "denier." I simply visited LGF, and saw this, and felt compelled to respond. I've been straight with you before and been met with resistance, so I'll again just respond frankly. You seem to just google what I write and paste whatever google turns up to "debunk" it without trying to understand what I'm saying.
I'm posting these links because it isn't worth the time to debunk your talking points -- they've already been thoroughly debunked over and over. But of course, that doesn't stop you from posting them again.
As for whether you're a "denier," I'm finding it hard to accept your statement at face value, since you've previously admitted that you get all your information on climate change from denier websites, and even creationists.
[Link: littlegreenfootballs.com...]
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