New Study: US Weather Stations Not Biased Toward Warming

Former TV weatherman Anthony Watts has been engaged in an ongoing attack on the reliability of the US network of surface weather stations, claiming that poor placement of the stations has resulted in data that’s biased toward the warm side. Watts set up the website SurfaceStations.org to coordinate photographic evidence of problem stations, and many climatologists have applauded Watts for demonstrating the need to improve the nation’s weather monitoring system.

Typical problems identified at surfacestations.org include stations situated near the exhaust of air conditioning units, in asphalt parking lots, and on hot rooftops.

But is Watts correct when he claims that problems with the stations caused a warm bias? Jeff Masters of Wunder Blog reports on a new study from the National Climatic Data Center concluding that the problems identified by Watts and his investigators are real, all right — but that the badly situated stations tend to have a bias toward cooler temperatures: Poorly sited U.S. temperature instruments not responsible for artificial warming.

While Watts’ publication by the Heartland Institute is a valuable source of information on siting problems of the U.S. network of weather stations, the publication did not undergo peer-review—the process whereby three anonymous scientists who are experts in the field review a manuscript submitted for publication, and offer criticisms on the scientific validity of the results, resulting in revisions to the original paper or outright rejection. The Heartland Institute is an advocacy organization that accepts money from corporate benefactors such as the tobacco industry and fossil fuel industry, and publishes non-peer reviewed science that inevitably supports the interests of the groups paying for the studies. Watts did not actually analyze the data to see if taking out the poorly sited surface stations would have a significant impact on the observed 1.1°F increase in U.S. temperatures over the past century. His study would never have been publishable in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.

Fortunately, a proper analysis of the impact of these poorly-sited surface stations on the U.S. historical temperature record has now been done by Dr. Matthew Menne and co-authors at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). In a talk at last week’s 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Menne reported the results of their new paper just accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research titled, On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record [PDF]. Dr. Menne’s study split the U.S. surface stations into two categories: good (rating 1 or 2) and bad (ratings 3, 4 or 5). They performed the analysis using both the rating provided by surfacestations.org, and from an independent rating provided by NOAA personnel. In general, the NOAA-provided ratings coincided with the ratings given by surfacestations.org. Of the NOAA-rated stations, only 71 stations fell into the “good” siting category, while 454 fell into the “bad” category. According to the authors, though, “the sites with good exposure, though small in number, are reasonably well distributed across the country and, as shown by Vose and Menne [2004], are of sufficient density to obtain a robust estimate of the CONUS average”. Dr. Menne’s study computed the average daily minimum and maximum temperatures from the good sites and poor sites. The results were surprising. While the poor sites had a slightly warmer average minimum temperature than the good sites (by 0.03°C), the average maximum temperature measured at the poor sites was significantly cooler (by 0.14°C) than the good sites. As a result, overall average temperatures measured at the poor sites were cooler than the good sites. This is the opposite of the conclusion reached by Anthony Watts in his 2009 Heartland Institute publication.

Figure 2. Annual average maximum and minimum unadjusted temperature change calculated using (c) maximum and (d) minimum temperatures from good and poor exposure sites (Menne 2010). Poor sites showed a cooler maximum temperature compared to good sites. For minimum temperature, the poor sites were slightly warmer. The net effect was a cool bias in poorly sited stations. The dashed lines are for stations ranked by NOAA, while the solid lines are for the stations ranked by surfacestations.org.

Andrew Revkin has more, including comments from Anthony Watts: On Weather Stations and Climate Trends.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2016-01-01 10:29 am PST
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds Tweet

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal
Square Cash Shop at amazon
as an LGF Associate!
Recent PagesClick to refresh
Live From Daryl’s House - ‘I’m Alright’On this episode of Live From Daryl's House, Kenny Loggins drops by to get "Footloose" with Daryl and his band.
Thanos
2 days ago
Views: 179 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Author Retraces Her Journey From Survivalist Childhood to Cambridge Ph.D. As a girl, Westover says, "There wasn't ever any question about what my future would look like: I would get married when I was 17 or 18, and I would be given some corner of the farm and my ...
Thanos
2 days, 14 hours ago
Views: 273 • Comments: 2 • Rating: 5
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Florida Republicans Choose Unregulated Murder Weapons Over Children’s LivesI keep drilling this to everyone who discusses this shooting. Republicans value ownership of unregulated murder weapons over children's lives. So much so that they voted along party lines with Stoneman Douglas students watching they voted to decline debate on ...
TDG2112
2 days, 22 hours ago
Views: 291 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Weekend Box Office: ‘Black Panther’ Bounds to Record-Shattering $218M-Plus Bow In a defining moment for Hollywood, Disney and Marvel Studios' Black Panther exploded at the Presidents Day box office, bounding to a record-shattering estimate of $192 million for the three-day weekend and a projected $218 million-plus for the four-day ...
Thanos
5 days, 4 hours ago
Views: 562 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Brandi Carlile - the Joke (Official Video) From the album "By The Way, I Forgive You" available now. elektrar.ec Directed by Danny Clinch Produced by Lindha Narvaez for MILKT Choreography by Peter Leung Ballet sequence filmed by Middle Table Productions Connect with Brandi: brandicarlile.com facebook.com @brandicarlile ...
Thanos
5 days, 23 hours ago
Views: 615 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
School Shooter Nikolas Cruz Belonged to White Supremacist GroupThis my surprised face.... BREAKING: Nikolas Cruz, alleged perpetrator in the deadly school shooting in Parkland, Florida, was associated with white supremacist group Republic of Florida & participated in the group’s training exercises, according to the group’s leader. More info: ...
Scottish Dragon
1 week, 1 day ago
Views: 738 • Comments: 2 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Your Medicine Cabinet Knows What AIls Youblog.timesunion.com HOFFMAN FILESYour medicine cabinet knows what ails you.By Rob Hoffman on February 15, 2018 at 5:27 AM1We all fancy ourselves experts when it comes to the human condition. We see our fellow human beings as open books, and we ...
rhoffman
1 week, 1 day ago
Views: 719 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 1
Comments: 0
: 1
A.G. Schneiderman Files Civil Rights Lawsuit Against the Weinstein Companies, Harvey Weinstein, and Robert Weinstein NEW YORK – New York Attorney General Eric T. Schneiderman today filed suit against The Weinstein Company (“TWC”), Harvey Weinstein, and Robert Weinstein for egregious violations of New York’s civil rights, human rights, and business laws. The suit, filed ...
Thanos
1 week, 5 days ago
Views: 1,488 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 5 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 2
Comments: 0
: 2
Portugal. The Man - Keep on (Official Video) Portugal. The Man - Keep On Video conceptualized, created and directed by Paulin RoguesFollow Paulin at instagram.com Catch Portugal. The Man on tour:portugaltheman.com WOODSTOCK available now!atlantic.lnk.to Follow Portugal. The ManWebsite: portugaltheman.comFB: facebook.com IG: instagram.comTW: @portugalthemanSC: SoundCloudYT: youtube.comTumblr: portugaltheman.tumblr.com ...
Thanos
1 week, 6 days ago
Views: 1,581 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Marvel’s Jessica Jones - Season 2 Jessica Jones is back as New York City’s tough-as-nails private investigator. Although this time, the case is even more personal than ever before. Fueled by a myriad of questions and lies, she will do whatever it takes to uncover ...
Thanos
1 week, 6 days ago
Views: 1,373 • Comments: 1 • Rating: 2
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0