The Tea Party Lost the Senate for the GOP

PoliticsNovember 2010 • Views: 27,327

Perhaps the most interesting result from yesterday’s election is the total failure of Sarah Palin’s most high-profile endorsements — Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, and probably Joe Miller (write-ins for Lisa Murkowski were way ahead of votes for Miller at last estimate).

In several of these races, Tea Party candidates pushed out establishment GOP politicians who were virtually guaranteed to hold their seats — then the right wingers proceeded to lose big. So while no one is surprised that the GOP made gains in the House, the numbers show that the Tea Party movement is actually the main reason why Republicans didn’t also gain a majority in the Senate.

Pandering to populism is a double-edged sword.

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55 comments

Glenn Beck's Grand Unifying Theory of Obdicut Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:47:01am

It’ll be really interesting to watch how the relationship between the Tea Party types and the GOP at large evolves from here on.

Including Rand Paul’s promise/threat to start a Tea Party caucus.

rwmofo Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:47:55am

I’m having a little trouble trying to find a way to put “GOP” and “lost” in the same sentence right now.

Feline Fearless Leader Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:47:58am

re: #1 Obdicut

It’ll be really interesting to watch how the relationship between the Tea Party types and the GOP at large evolves from here on.

Including Rand Paul’s promise/threat to start a Tea Party caucus.

What chance he promises not to do that in exchange for some favor regarding committee assignments in the Senate?

Glenn Beck's Grand Unifying Theory of Obdicut Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:48:47am

re: #2 rwmofo

Did the GOP win the senate?

Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:49:00am

And sadly it may work to the Republican’s advantage. Now, instead of Obama being the underdog fighting against the Republican Controlled congress. The house can toss bills up left and right and it’s The Senate and Obama trying to stop the poor Republicans from getting their way.

The Republicans aren’t going to set and agenda, they’re going to sit back and try to play defense and obstruct, just like they did the last two years. Why? because they think they can win that way. After all, they won by making the public feel that Obama failed to accomplish anything. So two more years of that should ensure that The Democrats are swept out by the next wave of Republican/Tea Party populism.

I’m calling it now. The Republicans are going to work to make sure nothing is passed for the next two years and work to blame Obama for it.

MinisterO Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:49:04am

When Harry beat Sharon it made my day.

MinisterO Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:49:30am

re: #2 rwmofo

I’m having a little trouble trying to find a way to put “GOP” and “lost” in the same sentence right now.

The GOP has lost its mind.

PT Barnum Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:51:03am

re: #5 bloodstar

And sadly it may work to the Republican’s advantage. Now, instead of Obama being the underdog fighting against the Republican Controlled congress. The house can toss bills up left and right and it’s The Senate and Obama trying to stop the poor Republicans from getting their way.

The Republicans aren’t going to set and agenda, they’re going to sit back and try to play defense and obstruct, just like they did the last two years. Why? because they think they can win that way. After all, they won by making the public feel that Obama failed to accomplish anything. So two more years of that should ensure that The Democrats are swept out by the next wave of Republican/Tea Party populism.

I’m calling it now. The Republicans are going to work to make sure nothing is passed for the next two years and work to blame Obama for it.

I think people are more likely to hold them accountable for getting something done.

theheat Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:51:14am

re: #6 MinisterO

And O’Donnell going back to the corner with her dunce hat on. She’s been Pouty Princess all day. Has the sads bigtime.

MinisterO Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:52:57am

re: #5 bloodstar

I’m calling it now. The Republicans are going to work to make sure nothing is passed for the next two years and work to blame Obama for it.

I believe they will try to do to exactly that. That and sham hearings on climate science and impeachment. The Tea people are high information voters and might just demand they do more (I hope).

rwmofo Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:53:02am

I watched a little of the MSNBC coverage last night - fortunately while Michelle Bachmann was punking Chris Matthews. It was comedy gold. After Michelle’s segment was over, the left-wing “panel” proceeded to insult the American voters because the voters are so out of touch - or something.

lawhawk Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:53:39am

Running extreme candidates in DE and NV definitely seem to have lost the GOP chances of winning back the Senate in states that were vulnerable for the picking. That has to be offset by the way the TP energized voters elsewhere in House races.

But that goes to the nature of the House and how fortunes can rise and fall with the drop of a hat.

It wont matter to the likes of Sarah Palin, who will see the results overall as reinforcing her role as a kingmaker, even if her success in endorsing candidates in the Senate wasn’t great. It goes without saying that she’ll tout the results as validating TP success (and her own) when it can more likely be attributed to The Economy.

Carville was right when he first made that axiom. It still holds true today. It’s the Economy, Stupid. With the economy in the doldrums and promises of improvement falling short on delivery, claims that the economic programs proffered by the WH and Congress staved off something far worse doesn’t resonate because people are focused on how bad things actually are.

Now, the GOP will have to contend with this mess as well - and I don’t think they’re any more up to the task than the Democrats were. There’s quite a bit on the table that has to be addressed, and it will be interesting to see how Boehner herds the new cats that join the House class of 2010.

kirkspencer Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:53:43am

re: #5 bloodstar

[snip] I’m calling it now. The Republicans are going to work to make sure nothing is passed for the next two years and work to blame Obama for it.

Agreed. Impeachment hearings will begin in January. Bills will be submitted to remove bills passed in the preceding years, and others to deny funding already approved.

Some ugly “fun” will come as the House creates a budget that has nothing to do with what Obama’s OMB passes to it.

But the ugliest fun is likely to come as we reach the deficit cap. If that’s not raised we can’t create more bonds or treasury notes. At that point it doesn’t matter what the budget is, we can’t get more money. Which means we can’t pay soldiers, can’t pay medicare, can’t pay government salaries…

Feline Fearless Leader Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:53:53am

A lot will depend on the GOP understanding that this election was not “yea GOP!” but “Bah Incumbents!”. Two years of do nothing will lead to another round of “Bah Incumbents!” where the GOP is the majority of the incumbents in the House.

And in two years you probably get to see Snowe get primaried in Maine given the differences between her voting practices and the Maine GOP party platform.

mikefromArlington Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:54:29am

Oh how so wrong you are. This is only the beginning. They have awakened a sleeping giant and people are now paying attention to Maoobama’s Marxist agenda. See, someone posted this on Plumline earlier:

But things are changing with the people. People are educating themselves and it is making them alert to the ideology of Marx, Mao and Stalin. Tea Party gatherings discuss Enlightenment philosophy, the history and the struggles that gave us liberty, as they did in the taverns of the eighteenth century. They are beginning to see that we have become complacent about our freedom and that BS has taken us down this road. And, they are “enlightening’ others; that is a game changer.

See there? They are now alert to Marx, Mao and Stalin.

Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:55:40am

re: #8 PT Barnum

I think people are more likely to hold them accountable for getting something done.

If you can spend a few hundred million dollars claiming that you did something, Specifically, ‘we stopped Obama and his (supposed) socialist agenda’, enough people may believe you that it may not matter.

For enough people, that may be the only accomplishment that matters. They’re that scared.

Citizens United is going to lead to a very brutal 2012 election, because I can promise you, there will be no campaign finance passed in the near future.

I’m not looking forward to the vitriol.

Glenn Beck's Grand Unifying Theory of Obdicut Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:56:13am

re: #13 kirkspencer

Yes. Where the playacting meets reality, there’s going to be trouble.

It’s all well and good to scream about cutting spending. Now they’re going to have to live up to that.

MinisterO Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:56:25am

re: #14 oaktree

A lot will depend on the GOP understanding that this election was not “yea GOP!” but “Bah Incumbents!”. Two years of do nothing will lead to another round of “Bah Incumbents!” where the GOP is the majority of the incumbents in the House.

And in two years you probably get to see Snowe get primaried in Maine given the differences between her voting practices and the Maine GOP party platform.

Foxnews.com is running HISTORIC ‘MANDATE’ in big letters on its front page. I suspect the GOP believes its own hype.

lawhawk Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:56:39am

re: #4 Obdicut

The GOP winning the Senate was always a longshot based on the seats up for grabs. I’ll leave it to Silver to see whether the Democrats over/underperformed on the outcomes, but the GOP did close the gap and made gridlock much more likely in the Senate, and then in Congress as a whole.

Losing that many seats in a midterm doesn’t happen all that often.

/and the House and Senate gains for the GOP come close to my own predictions (68/7).

Big Steve Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:57:02am

tell you what the Senate, now balanced, is going to become everyone’s whipping post…..both from the House as well as the Administration. They need to get ready for some Pelosi type hatred being flung at them.

Feline Fearless Leader Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:57:15am

re: #16 bloodstar

If you can spend a few hundred million dollars claiming that you did something, Specifically, ‘we stopped Obama and his (supposed) socialist agenda’, enough people may believe you that it may not matter.

For enough people, that may be the only accomplishment that matters. They’re that scared.

Citizens United is going to lead to a very brutal 2012 election, because I can promise you, there will be no campaign finance passed in the near future.

I’m not looking forward to the vitriol.

The one area that will not suffer from a fuel shortage are the fires of outrage.

Decatur Deb Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:57:32am

re: #2 rwmofo

I’m having a little trouble trying to find a way to put “GOP” and “lost” in the same sentence right now.

Include the word “mind”.

Charles Johnson Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:58:01am

Obama’s news conference coming up at 1pm ET. Posting live video in a new thread in a minute…

jordash1212 Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:59:45am

The election in 2012 will be quite interesting. The Democrats have 22 seats to save compared only 10 GOP seats. The biggest thing the Democrats will have going for them is more political gridlock and a huge fight within the GOP.

Glenn Beck's Grand Unifying Theory of Obdicut Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:00:44am

re: #19 lawhawk

Of course winning the senate was a long shot. It was much less of a long shot if they hadn’t run tea partiers. That really isn’t relevant to my reply to rwmofo, so I’m kind of confused why you’re telling me this. Can you explain?

theheat Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:01:57am

re: #8 PT Barnum

I hope you’re right, but my inner voice tells me that isn’t going to happen.

I see the wingnuts becoming more polarized, and more extreme, and believing their big pitch over the cliff is what won so big this round. They’re going to double up on the crazy, and stonewall anything resembling solutions that matter to Joe Q. Public.

For the first time I feel like I need to actually do something politically besides vote in order to somehow deflect the future onslaught of wingnuttery. Maybe volunteer - I don’t know what. The Dems in power are such a gutless bunch, it’s like they need Personal Power seminars to get their heads out of their asses and butch up.

Nick Schroeder Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:02:13am

Nothing about these results is really very surprising.

As a Tampa resident, I am depressed about the sweeping Republican victories here, though. With Skeletor in the governor’s office, and a rubber-stamp pro-corpo state legislature, it’s going to be open season on the middle class and the environment. Guess I’d better get in some beach time as soon as possible, before the roving eyesores of off-shore drilling 5-10 miles off the coast start up.

*sigh*

huggy77 Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:04:36am

bad argument… You cant be sure that the senate race winners who received Tea Party endorsement would have won w/out the tea party movement. Perhaps you trade the Toomey seat for the Nevada seat…

The Tea Party is responsible for a lot of the smaller govt, lower taxes momentum in the country right now and that energizes the conservative base.

RogueOne Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:09:41am

re: #5 bloodstar

And sadly it may work to the Republican’s advantage. Now, instead of Obama being the underdog fighting against the Republican Controlled congress. The house can toss bills up left and right and it’s The Senate and Obama trying to stop the poor Republicans from getting their way.

The Republicans aren’t going to set and agenda, they’re going to sit back and try to play defense and obstruct, just like they did the last two years. Why? because they think they can win that way. After all, they won by making the public feel that Obama failed to accomplish anything. So two more years of that should ensure that The Democrats are swept out by the next wave of Republican/Tea Party populism.

I’m calling it now. The Republicans are going to work to make sure nothing is passed for the next two years and work to blame Obama for it.

I think you’re correct. With the face of the government still being 2/3rds of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi team, not winning the Senate could play out in the repubs favor.

Ericus58 Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:10:47am

re: #7 MinisterO

The GOP has lost its mind.

Ha, you got a chuckle out of me on that one. Well played.

Tiny alien kittens are watching you Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:12:53am

Hah, just wait until the GOP unveils their new “double trickle down theory,” any day now they will be explaining how giving tax cuts to the wealthy for them to invest overseas, (have you looked at the “capital flight” numbers lately?), is going to revitalize the American economy…somehow. Look for more massive job exporting, and being told that it is actually a good us…somehow. (for the already wealthy it certainly is anyway)

I suppose by investing in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and other low labor cost countries it supplies us with more ultra low cost goods thereby lowering the cost of living and inflation numbers, while also simultaneously wiping out that pesky non-wingnut middle class here at home.

Sigh…what a clusterfuck, the “average” American voter is going to get exactly what they deserve, too bad the rest of us will have to suffer too.

Jadespring Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:15:24am

Totally OT but I just sprained my thumb while peeling potatoes.

I’m the queen of stupid injuries…

*&^%(($$

theheat Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:16:46am

re: #32 Jadespring

Pray tell, what power tool were you using?
//

funky chicken Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:23:58am

Pandering to populism is a double-edged sword

Yes, and reinforced the wisdom of having one house in the legislature that would be “closer to the people” (influenced by the rabble) and one that would be more immune to that kind of thing. Tea Party nuts were able to win quite a few House races, but they couldn’t win election to the Senate.

Sol Berdinowitz Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:24:56am

re: #33 theheat

Pray tell, what power tool were you using?
//

Further confirmation of my rule never to eat any vegetable that requires a power tool to prepare it…

Sol Berdinowitz Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:26:20am

re: #31 ausador

It’s an indirect-trickle: the more goods produced in China and Indonesia, the more cheap imports available to US consumers, therefore the more jobs available stacking shelves at the Wal-Mart…

funky chicken Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:27:29am

re: #31 ausador

Hah, just wait until the GOP unveils their new “double trickle down theory,” any day now they will be explaining how giving tax cuts to the wealthy for them to invest overseas, (have you looked at the “capital flight” numbers lately?), is going to revitalize the American economy...somehow. Look for more massive job exporting, and being told that it is actually a good us…somehow. (for the already wealthy it certainly is anyway)

I suppose by investing in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and other low labor cost countries it supplies us with more ultra low cost goods thereby lowering the cost of living and inflation numbers, while also simultaneously wiping out that pesky non-wingnut middle class here at home.

Sigh…what a clusterfuck, the “average” American voter is going to get exactly what they deserve, too bad the rest of us will have to suffer too.

AMEN—the amount of capital the wealthy stash overseas make the money that gets sent back to Mexico look like pennies. Sigh. Here’s a Newsweek article about it:

newsweek.com

Holding Dollars Hostage
Big companies stash cash abroad.

Locker Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:43:15am

re: #11 rwmofo

I watched a little of the MSNBC coverage last night - fortunately while Michelle Bachmann was punking Chris Matthews. It was comedy gold. After Michelle’s segment was over, the left-wing “panel” proceeded to insult the American voters because the voters are so out of touch - or something.

What is comedy gold is to watch someone who is such an attention whore that they need to actively seek out negative karma in an unfriendly environment because they are THAT DESPERATE for attention.. ANY attention.

Hil…fucking…arious.

funky chicken Wed, Nov 3, 2010 10:50:40am

re: #11 rwmofo

I watched a little of the MSNBC coverage last night - fortunately while Michelle Bachmann was punking Chris Matthews. It was comedy gold. After Michelle’s segment was over, the left-wing “panel” proceeded to insult the American voters because the voters are so out of touch - or something.

Dude—she’s nuts, and more offputting to normal folks than Nancy Pelosi, which is pretty hard to do. If GOP leadership puts Bachmann out front, it will be a disaster for the party.

Hey, I won’t be shocked if they do it, but it would be a stupid move.

shiplord kirel Wed, Nov 3, 2010 11:11:27am

It took some real work for a Republican candidate to lose to the widely detested Harry Reid, but Angle pulled it off. With Reid winning by just 5% against the abrasively crazy Angle, the GOP could almost have nominated a random person off the street and sent him packing.
The same is true in Delaware, where it should be transparently obvious that Mike Castle would have routed the balded Marx brother.

Kronocide Wed, Nov 3, 2010 11:22:51am

re: #2 rwmofo

I’m having a little trouble trying to find a way to put “GOP” and “lost” in the same sentence right now.

Simple yes or no question: would the Senate be in GOP hands if the TeaParty didn’t put in a batch of nutters?

Tiny alien kittens are watching you Wed, Nov 3, 2010 11:40:09am

re: #41 BigPapa

Simple yes or no question: would the Senate be in GOP hands if the TeaParty didn’t put in a batch of nutters?

According to the way early polling, from long before the primaries, the answer is YES!

The mainstream Republican candidates that were defeated in the primaries by the teaparty candidates should have easily won the general elections. At the least the Republicans would have picked up three more seats in the senate making them even or perhaps even one up on the Democratic party, (not counting the two Independent seats that pretty much always sit with whatever party is in the majority). I.E….Harry Reid was done, his goose was cooked, until Angle won the primary, a small gift from heaven for Mr. Reid.

avanti Wed, Nov 3, 2010 12:04:28pm

Crazy Pam has the solution to the GOP losing the youth vote, raise the voting age to 26:

“If you consider that children can now stay on their parent’s healthcare until they are 26, shouldn’t the voting age be the same? If they are still babies, unable to work and pay for their health care, certainly they should not be eligible to vote until they are 26 as well. Capisce? ”

That would help, but allowing only white males over 50 to vote would seal the deal for today’s GOP.

abbyadams Wed, Nov 3, 2010 12:52:53pm

re: #43 avanti

If they can go to war, they can vote on the people that will or will not send them there. Capisce?

Tigger2 Wed, Nov 3, 2010 2:09:37pm

re: #11 rwmofo

I watched a little of the MSNBC coverage last night - fortunately while Michelle Bachmann was punking Chris Matthews. It was comedy gold. After Michelle’s segment was over, the left-wing “panel” proceeded to insult the American voters because the voters are so out of touch - or something.

Sorry but Bachmann looked like a babbling idiot.

ReneeJoy Wed, Nov 3, 2010 2:23:09pm

Every time I see the shorthand for Tea Party (TP) the first thing that comes to my mind is toilet paper. lol

Lance o Lot Wed, Nov 3, 2010 3:17:35pm

With help from the Tea Party, The GOP has turned back the tide that has threatened to turn the United States of America into a basket case that would more resemble France or Greece than anything else.

I don’t care how you package it. Call it Progressive, call it Liberal, or call it Socialism, statist, top-down government dictated by a ruling elite is a failure. Claiming that we are so brilliant that we can do the same things that fails everywhere is absurd. Look how well it’s working for Chavez!

Now quit standing around with your hands out, waiting for me to pay for another $600 “stimulus check” and get back to work. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, (or health care).

WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.] Wed, Nov 3, 2010 3:19:33pm

re: #47 Lance o Lot

With help from the Tea Party, The GOP has turned back the tide that has threatened to turn the United States of America into a basket case that would more resemble France or Greece than anything else.

I don’t care how you package it. Call it Progressive, call it Liberal, or call it Socialism, statist, top-down government dictated by a ruling elite is a failure. Claiming that we are so brilliant that we can do the same things that fails everywhere is absurd. Look how well it’s working for Chavez!

Now quit standing around with your hands out, waiting for me to pay for another $600 “stimulus check” and get back to work. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, (or health care).

Boy you are just batting a thousand in chickenshit spamming dead thread baseball.

Gus Wed, Nov 3, 2010 3:19:56pm

re: #47 Lance o Lot

Yes. Vote for the Michelle Bachmann’s of America. They don’t take any handouts.

deranged cat Wed, Nov 3, 2010 3:29:47pm

don’t forget ken buck!

claw Wed, Nov 3, 2010 6:00:12pm

Those that want smaller government, and less spending and lower taxes are willing to lose election as opposed to putting a liberal on the ballot. It is not about being Democratic or Republican. It is about being a conservative. It is about standing for something.

Glenn Beck's Grand Unifying Theory of Obdicut Wed, Nov 3, 2010 6:02:04pm

re: #51 cwolff

So what are they going to cut?

Tiny alien kittens are watching you Wed, Nov 3, 2010 8:32:32pm

re: #51 cwolff

Those that want smaller government, and less spending and lower taxes are willing to lose election as opposed to putting a liberal on the ballot. It is not about being Democratic or Republican. It is about being a conservative. It is about standing for something.

You mean you actually fell for another politician telling you, “Jobs, Constitution, Smaller Government, Patriotism” damn did you get played, again…

Just like the GOP has been pandering to the religious Right and the anti-abortion crowd for over thirty years without doing anything except mouthing the right words when a lot of people could hear them, with no legislation to back it up. Your TeaParty people (as a paid for branch of the GOP) are going to do exactly the same, Lie directly to your face about their intentions and make promises they know they will never keep.

But what do they care? They know lieing to your gullible ass was enough to get your vote, and it will continue to be over and over and over again. The minute their gullible moron followers finally started to honestly question if they would ever follow through on any of their promises they simply started up a completely “new subsidiary.” The Tea Party (don’t believe me? look at where their money comes from) they are playing you poor people for chumps.

Just watch and see what they actually do, then maybe you’ll realize that you have been suckered…again. :(

WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.] Wed, Nov 3, 2010 9:53:53pm

re: #51 cwolff

Those that want smaller government, and less spending and lower taxes are willing to lose election as opposed to putting a liberal on the ballot. It is not about being Democratic or Republican. It is about being a conservative. It is about standing for something.

Oh gawrsh, I can just smell that apple pie a cookin’, kinda brings a tear to your eye

S'latch Mon, Nov 8, 2010 2:35:47pm

The Tea Party actually is responsible for changing a 94-year-old trend.

Historically speaking, the House only switches when the Senate switches… .

The 17th Amendment, which mandates the direct election of senators, took effect prior to the 1914 election. Since then, the Senate has changed hands 10 times due to the biannual congressional election. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, has only changed hands 6 times due to the biannual congressional election… .

Furthermore, of these 7 times the House has switched, the Senate has also switched. Not only does the Senate switch more frequently, it always switches with the House. A switch in the Senate, therefore, seems to be a necessary, but insufficient, condition for a switch in the House. Conversely, a switch in the House is a sufficient, but not necessary, condition for a switch in the Senate. In other words, when the House has switched, the Senate has always followed; however, when the Senate has switched, the House has not necessarily followed. Thus, historically speaking, two scenarios are possible: the Senate alone changes or both the House and the Senate change.
…

History indicates that when the House switches, the Senate switches, too.

April 24, 2006
2006: What About the Senate?
By Jay Cost

2010 is the first time in history that the House has switched without the Senate either having switched in the previous election or at the same time.

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