Anthony Watts: Disastrously Wrong Again

Environment • Views: 30,812

Pseudo-scientist Anthony Watts of the “Watts Up With That” climate change denial blog posted a bold prediction earlier this year — he said this summer would decisively show that the polar ice cap had stopped declining. He guaranteed this, in fact.

Now the scientific measurements have been taken, and the results are in, and Watts’s prediction is revealed as the denialist propaganda it is; in fact, polar ice has declined to historically low levels, and this summer, both the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage were completely clear of ice for the first time in recorded history. Watts is a hack and a fraud, posing as a scientist to feed his right wing audience the soothing false claims they want to hear.

Environmentalist Peter Sinclair’s new video makes this very clear.

Youtube Video

UPDATE at 11/22/10 2:51:56 pm:

To be precise, it was not Anthony Watts who predicted the sea ice would rebound, but one of his blog co-authors. The point remains that the false prediction was promoted by Watts Up With That.

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62 comments
1 Obdicut  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:11:21am

My prediction: Watt will choose to compare one month, in one region, against another one from last year to make it seem like sea ice didn’t decline.

2 Flounder  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:11:28am

If there is a Northwest and Northeast Passage, how come they were never free of ice before??

3 lawhawk  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:11:32am

This post by Jeff Masters that includes satellite imagery showing the routes of both the NE and NW Passages shows the retreating ice fields and the potential exploitation of those routes for commercial interests.

4 Jack Burton  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:13:02am

re: #2 shropshire_slasher

If there is a Northwest and Northeast Passage, how come they were never free of ice before??

Navigable != ‘completely free of ice’

5 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:13:16am

re: #2 shropshire_slasher

If there is a Northwest and Northeast Passage, how come they were never free of ice before??

It says both free at the same time.

6 Obdicut  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:15:19am

re: #2 shropshire_slasher

Because of AGW. This is the first time the climate has been warm enough to free them up.

And of course, the weirder brand of people are going to celebrate the opening of these passages as a sign that AGW is going to bring us good things.

7 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:15:36am

I sense someone is…concerned.

8 theheat  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:17:31am

re: #7 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

Is concern troll concerned?

9 lawhawk  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:17:35am

The NE and NW passages have been free of ice at different points in history, but this is the first time in what appears to be more than several hundred years that both were navigable at the same time.

10 theheat  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:19:43am

re: #6 Obdicut

And of course, the weirder brand of people are going to celebrate the opening of these passages as a sign that AGW is going to bring us good things.

This. “It’s good for business!”

11 Sol Berdinowitz  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:20:15am

That is good news: means we can get the oil from the North Slope of Alaska directly to China without building a pipeline!!!

12 Flounder  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:21:31am

Since we are talking about the high seas, Blackbeard the pirate (Yarrrr!) was killed in battle today, 292 years ago.

13 lostlakehiker  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:23:29am

re: #2 shropshire_slasher

If there is a Northwest and Northeast Passage, how come they were never free of ice before??

Because it was, like, freezing cold and all.

14 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:23:55am

re: #8 theheat

Is concern troll concerned?

A wild concern troll appears!

It uses Poorly Framed Question! Its not very effective.

You use Mockery! Its SUPER EFFECTIVE!

A wild concern troll faints!

15 Sol Berdinowitz  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:25:58am

Image: NorthwestPassage_film_cover.jpg

(note: not suitable for children!)

16 theheat  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:27:17am

re: #14 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

I’m just concerned that… You know what worries me is…

17 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:28:24am

re: #15 ralphieboy

18 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:30:09am

My post done been ate.

19 Varek Raith  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:31:29am

re: #14 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

A wild concern troll appears!

It uses Poorly Framed Question! Its not very effective.

You use Mockery! Its SUPER EFFECTIVE!

A wild concern troll faints!

You play too much Pokemon.
Wait…
Dammit!

20 Jack Burton  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:31:55am

re: #7 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

I sense someone is…concerned.

“Let me read a letter I recently received. ‘Dear Dr. Breen. Why has nature seen fit to suppress our ice-pack cycle? Sincerely, A Concerned Citizen.’
Thank you for writing, Concerned…”

21 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:32:30am

re: #19 Varek Raith

You play too much Pokemon.
Wait…
Dammit!

Kragar used Cunning Plan! Its SUPER EFFECTIVE!

22 garhighway  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:32:54am

I posted Sinclair’s video over at Watt’s Up.

It will be interesting to see if he lets it go up.

23 Sol Berdinowitz  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:33:16am

re: #17 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)


That film is not just unsuitable for children, it is very non -PC.

It is hard to find: a friend who is a vintage film buff finally found an Import version from Spain, and now I see why: it portrays Indians as drunken savages who deserve to get massacreed by Roger’s Rangers.

24 McSpiff  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:38:43am

re: #23 ralphieboy

That film is not just unsuitable for children, it is very non -PC.

It is hard to find: a friend who is a vintage film buff finally found an Import version from Spain, and now I see why: it portrays Indians as drunken savages who deserve to get massacreed by Roger’s Rangers.

Pretty much the policy of the government of Canada for a few centuries…

25 lostlakehiker  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:38:56am

re: #6 Obdicut

Because of AGW. This is the first time the climate has been warm enough to free them up.

And of course, the weirder brand of people are going to celebrate the opening of these passages as a sign that AGW is going to bring us good things.

Every cloud really does have a silver lining. Seen in isolation, the opening of these passages is good for us.

If my house is underheated and it catches fire, my bedroom becomes toasty warm. Seen in isolation, that’s good.

AGW has been, and for a time will continue to be, good for Canada, Russia, and Alaska. Growing seasons are longer, and the winters are not so bitter cold.

The trouble even today is that in other parts of the world, the same warming has more of a downside. Summers are already hot in India.

The trouble, down the road, with this warming is that once the summer pack ice around Greenland is mostly history, Greenland itself will be less cold. For Greenland, that’s good. The icecap will recede, bushes and trees will grow on the land that emerges from beneath the ice, and farms and cities will be eventually develop. But the water from all that ice? Sea levels will rise. Low-lying land that is now fertile will be rendered useless for agriculture by the infiltration of salt into its water table. There’s a lot of it, a mere five, ten, twenty feet above sea level. The sea doesn’t have to rise twenty feet to ruin such land; all that is needed is that a tropical storm surge, on top of high tide, on top of the AGW-driven rise in sea level, reach twenty feet.

Down the road, a lot of permafrost thaws. For all we know now, this might happen quite suddenly. There’s the potential for some runaway positive feedback: permafrost thaws some, methane bubbles out, methane is greenhouse gas and warms things up, more methane released, repeat and amplify. Can you say chain reaction?

Down the road, summer temperatures get to where crop-killing heat waves become much more frequent. Hundred-year heat waves come along every seven years? Quite possible. We are rich in food, now. But let the crops fail often enough, and that could change. Russia’s wheat crop failure just this year gives a hint of what could lie down the road.

The signs are all over the place: road out ahead. We need a different road. Wind/solar/nuclear/efficiency. Or smashup. With a cherry on top: an open Northwest passage. The consolation prize is insufficient.

26 Ericus58  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:39:18am

Leaking Siberian ice raises a tricky climate issue

[Link: news.yahoo.com…]

“CHERSKY, Russia – The Russian scientist shuffles across the frozen lake, scuffing aside ankle-deep snow until he finds a cluster of bubbles trapped under the ice. With a cigarette lighter in one hand and a knife in the other, he lances the ice like a blister. Methane whooshes out and bursts into a thin blue flame.

Gas locked inside Siberia’s frozen soil and under its lakes has been seeping out since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. But in the past few decades, as the Earth has warmed, the icy ground has begun thawing more rapidly, accelerating the release of methane — a greenhouse gas 23 times more powerful than carbon dioxide — at a perilous rate.

Some scientists believe the thawing of permafrost could become the epicenter of climate change. They say 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, locked inside icebound earth since the age of mammoths, is a climate time bomb waiting to explode if released into the atmosphere.”
……….

27 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:39:34am

Charles, you beat me by about 10 minutes in making this post! I am very glad you made Sinclair’s newest video into a main thread.

There are few things better than this example that show just how terrible at even approximating scientific reasoning the hacks are.

The pseudo science hacks at Watts Up With That, guaranteed that polar caps would rebound in 2010. This smug echo that nothing was going on up there and there is nothing to worry about - despite decades of decline was echoed throughout the right wing denial circuit. Of course, now that the numbers are in 2010 was one of the lowest years on record for sea ice, and the downward spiral continues to get worse.

What had happened was that 2007 was an abnormally bad year for sea ice. 2008 showed more sea ice return (relative to 2007 but still not even close to reversing the 30 year trend.

None the less, based on two (!) data points, the scientific geniuses at Fox and in the propaganda market, proclaimed that the situation had reversed. Of course, they gave no indication why they believed this would happen based on any calculation, or understanding of physics.

This is one of those cases where, believe me, all of the world’s scientists wished we were wrong. It is very difficult to live with the certain knowledge that terrible things are happening in the world while fools and propagandists for fossil fuel concerns deny it is even real, and the majority refuse to act. This is not a fun “I told you so.” There is no joy in being correct in such a case.

28 McSpiff  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:40:05am

re: #25 lostlakehiker

Canada might get longer growing seasons, or we might get another dust bowl.

29 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:41:47am

re: #2 shropshire_slasher

If there is a Northwest and Northeast Passage, how come they were never free of ice before??

Had you not failed history you would have learned that the early explorers, like Henry Hudson, were looking very earnestly, for such a passage. They never found one, because it did not exist. It is only now that enough ice has melted that such things are possible.

30 Four More Tears  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:42:31am
Iceland is actively thinking about how they become the Singapore of the 21st century.

Yes. Let’s focus our attention on how to make money off of this. Nothing is more important. Nothing.

31 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:42:56am

re: #28 McSpiff

Canada might get longer growing seasons, or we might get another dust bowl.

It depends on where you are and when you are talking in the evolution of the system. Mid century, Canada will have a boom in agriculture overall, under business as usual models. America will be seriously compromised by then. However, Canada’s boom will not be permanent.

32 Flounder  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:43:05am

re: #29 LudwigVanQuixote

Lets not be an ass.

33 lostlakehiker  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:43:12am

re: #28 McSpiff

Canada might get longer growing seasons, or we might get another dust bowl.

Don’t put grasslands to the plow. Hardy prairie grasses can take a lot. I’ve traveled all over the former U.S. dust bowl. As grassland, it’s now somewhat recovered.

In the occasional wet/cool year, arid prairie makes good farmland. As we saw in the 1930’s below the border, the trouble is that when you win such a bet, you gain a little. When you lose, you lose a lot. And you lose often enough that you come out way behind on the gambling habit.

34 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:43:55am

re: #32 Shropshire_Slasher

Lets not be an ass.

Then don’t make such posts - unless you were being sarcastic. If you meant that as sarcasm I apologize, and recommend you use ///

35 Four More Tears  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:43:57am

re: #29 LudwigVanQuixote

Had you not failed history you would have learned that the early explorers, like Henry Hudson, were looking very earnestly, for such a passage. They never found one, because it did not exist. It is only now that enough ice has melted that such things are possible.

Mankind: making the stuff of myth into reality. We’re so awesome.

36 McSpiff  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:44:28am

re: #32 Shropshire_Slasher

Let’s try not to be too clueless.

37 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:45:11am

What we need to be doing is preparing infrastructure for the changing world. Investing in pipelines for clean water, irrigation systems, an upgraded and more robust powergrid of multiple energy sources.

Instead, we get Young Earth Creationists, politicians who think wind farms stop the wind and other assorted idiots.

38 Interesting Times  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:45:17am

re: #34 LudwigVanQuixote

Then don’t make such posts - unless you were being sarcastic. If you meant that as sarcasm I apologize, and recommend you use ///

Check his karma and post history. His comment was a joke of the unintentional variety.

39 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:46:30am

re: #38 publicityStunted

Check his karma and post history. His comment was a joke of the unintentional variety.

Which is why I wrote as harshly as I did.

40 Flounder  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:46:37am

re: #34 LudwigVanQuixote

Does it matter? I will not insult anybody on this site, I respect the viewpoint of all.

41 William Barnett-Lewis  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:47:12am

re: #32 Shropshire_Slasher

Looking in the mirror?

42 McSpiff  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:47:54am

re: #40 Shropshire_Slasher

Yes it does matter. Some viewpoints are horribly, horribly wrong. They get no respect from me. Essentially any denialist position.

43 Interesting Times  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:48:20am

re: #40 Shropshire_Slasher

Does it matter? I will not insult anybody on this site

But you’re more than happy to insult our intelligence.

44 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:49:25am

re: #40 Shropshire_Slasher

Does it matter? I will not insult anybody on this site, I respect the viewpoint of all.

Really? Your comment seemed to not respect the viewpoint of that actual scientific evidence and historical record.


The fact that you didn’t immediately write something like “no no I was being sarcastic, of course I know about the explorers!” means you actually thought you were posting some sort of gotcha, and minimizing a terrible threat to every man, woman and child on this planet.

A little stupidity is one thing, but your kind is dangerous.

45 Flounder  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:50:40am

O my

46 theheat  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:51:12am

Speaking of weather, Holy Spawn of Frosty, my office is being pelted with huge snowballs from the trees above, and the wind just kicked up, so the snow is coming down sideways. It is wild and woolly outside right now.

47 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:51:52am

re: #40 Shropshire_Slasher

Right, you post did imply that the Northwest passage was real, and that somehow what is happening now is nothing new. That was the point of your post if not sarcasm correct?

Then there was the bit about pirates on the high seas.

So it is pretty obvious you do’t think this is a topic worthy of discussion. That makes not only stupid but dangerously stupid. Of course the fact that you seem to know nothing of either history or basic science and then whine like a bitch only adds to the perception of your worthlessness.

48 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:54:55am

re: #26 Ericus58

Leaking Siberian ice raises a tricky climate issue

[Link: news.yahoo.com…]

“CHERSKY, Russia – The Russian scientist shuffles across the frozen lake, scuffing aside ankle-deep snow until he finds a cluster of bubbles trapped under the ice. With a cigarette lighter in one hand and a knife in the other, he lances the ice like a blister. Methane whooshes out and bursts into a thin blue flame.

Gas locked inside Siberia’s frozen soil and under its lakes has been seeping out since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago. But in the past few decades, as the Earth has warmed, the icy ground has begun thawing more rapidly, accelerating the release of methane — a greenhouse gas 23 times more powerful than carbon dioxide — at a perilous rate.

Some scientists believe the thawing of permafrost could become the epicenter of climate change. They say 1.5 trillion tons of carbon, locked inside icebound earth since the age of mammoths, is a climate time bomb waiting to explode if released into the atmosphere.”

In my links are numerous references to methane out gassing from the Siberian bogs. This is a very major feedback, If CO2 pushes us past a CH4 tipping point, the consequences are beyond catastrophic.

49 lostlakehiker  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 10:58:07am

re: #40 Shropshire_Slasher

Does it matter? I will not insult anybody on this site, I respect the viewpoint of all.

I will not insult you. I try to maintain a respectful tone. But your opinions are fair game. Your question, why the NW and NE passage were never open before, answers itself if you think about it a bit.

The implicit opinion behind the question would seem to be that in fact they were open, both of them, in the past. Because there is nothing new in geography.

But this IS new. It’s as new as a volcanic island emerging from the sea. And Ludwig pulls no punches. He’s an ace at science. You’re a rookie. Talk as though you know something, when you don’t, and he’ll cut you down. Show a little humility and ask honest questions and try to understand, and he’ll try to explain. He’s good at that, and not at all arrogant or condescending.

50 lostlakehiker  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:04:08am

re: #37 Kragar (Proud to be Kafir)

What we need to be doing is preparing infrastructure for the changing world. Investing in pipelines for clean water, irrigation systems, an upgraded and more robust powergrid of multiple energy sources.

Instead, we get Young Earth Creationists, politicians who think wind farms stop the wind and other assorted idiots.

Wind farms do extract energy from the wind. If we could put up millions of wind farms, we’d extract so much we’d alter wind patterns.

Millions of wind farms are a distant prospect. For now, in our day and age, wind is an infinite, inexhaustible resource. A bit thinly distributed, but there are concentrations off the East coast, in the Dakotas, and Texas. There’s enough to be really, really useful. Especially if we had that modern power grid.

We could use a better grid anyway. Anybody remember that half-continental, day-long power outage? A better power grid is a more reliable grid. Electricity from wind is expensive up front but the fuel itself is free; that has to count for something.

51 Kragar  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:04:36am

If you don’t know, asking snide questions while talking out your ass is probably not the best way to learn.

Trust me, I know from experience.

52 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:07:34am

re: #50 lostlakehiker

Thank you for your previous post.

Be careful though when you write:

Wind farms do extract energy from the wind. If we could put up millions of wind farms, we’d extract so much we’d alter wind patterns.

Out of the millions terrawatts of wind energy out there, even millions of kilowatt wind farms would be a very small dent in terms of overall energy.

In as much as forests or plains alters wind patterns there would be an effect near the ground. In as much as large scale climate, teh effects will be quite small.

53 Ericus58  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:07:58am

re: #46 theheat

Speaking of weather, Holy Spawn of Frosty, my office is being pelted with huge snowballs from the trees above, and the wind just kicked up, so the snow is coming down sideways. It is wild and woolly outside right now.

“Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for a wide area of Western Washington, including the greater Seattle Metro area until 10 p.m. Monday as a storm moves into the region combined with arctic air already entrenched. As much as 2-6 inches of new snow was possible by Monday evening with heavier amounts expected in the foothills. Gusty north winds were also expected that could make for blowing snow conditions with gusts to 20-30 mph, maybe some gusts to 40 mph.”

Could be a fun afternoon/evening getting home.
It’s not the amount of snow we get here that’s the issue - it’s the terrain. And with air temps already below 30 and still falling to under 20 tonight - hope you did your shopping early for Turkey Day ;)

54 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:10:14am

re: #53 Ericus58

“Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for a wide area of Western Washington, including the greater Seattle Metro area until 10 p.m. Monday as a storm moves into the region combined with arctic air already entrenched. As much as 2-6 inches of new snow was possible by Monday evening with heavier amounts expected in the foothills. Gusty north winds were also expected that could make for blowing snow conditions with gusts to 20-30 mph, maybe some gusts to 40 mph.”

Could be a fun afternoon/evening getting home.
It’s not the amount of snow we get here that’s the issue - it’s the terrain. And with air temps already below 30 and still falling to under 20 tonight - hope you did your shopping early for Turkey Day ;)

Just to head it off at the pass, not from you but from standard denier talking points, warmer oceans and lakes means more water vapor which means more snow when cold air finally does come through. AGW predicts heavier snows for certain periods of the year in certain places.

55 Ericus58  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:13:54am

re: #54 LudwigVanQuixote

Just to head it off at the pass, not from you but from standard denier talking points, warmer oceans and lakes means more water vapor which means more snow when cold air finally does come through. AGW predicts heavier snows for certain periods of the year in certain places.

Indeed, good point to bring up.
This is supposed to be our La Nina winter here in the NW. As mild as last year’s winiter was, this will be the opposite by all indications.
I think my Dearest and I will be spending more time together this winter ;)

56 Gus  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:15:57am

re: #54 LudwigVanQuixote

Just to head it off at the pass, not from you but from standard denier talking points, warmer oceans and lakes means more water vapor which means more snow when cold air finally does come through. AGW predicts heavier snows for certain periods of the year in certain places.

Much like Nor’easters that are formed by low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico.

57 Mad Prophet Ludwig  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:21:42am

re: #56 Gus 802

Much like Nor’easters that are formed by low pressure systems in the Gulf of Mexico.

Exactly!

58 Kronocide  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 11:43:35am

This was a good risk/reward bet for Anthony Watts. If he’s wrong he’ll get beat down but his acolytes won’t pay it much heed, net sum not too big a deal. If he’s right the crowing would match the ‘scandal’ of CRU and it would be parroted all over the usual channels.

Science needs a marketing department.

59 theheat  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 12:27:53pm

re: #53 Ericus58

It’s supposed to rain later this week, in which case it will be icy slop if it stays cold. Whatever, I have 4WD if I need to get anywhere. If the electricity holds out, we’re going to be fine.

60 lostlakehiker  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 12:53:17pm

re: #58 BigPapa

This was a good risk/reward bet for Anthony Watts. If he’s wrong he’ll get beat down but his acolytes won’t pay it much heed, net sum not too big a deal. If he’s right the crowing would match the ‘scandal’ of CRU and it would be parroted all over the usual channels.

Science needs a marketing department.

Feasible. Set up a market, just like the market in election futures. Will sea ice be less this coming year, or more? By how much? Gentlemen, place your bets.

61 Amory Blaine  Mon, Nov 22, 2010 2:42:35pm

A very short, but good book I read a while back. A tale of survival in the Arctic.

62 Spocomptonite  Tue, Nov 23, 2010 4:51:58pm

In a just, fair, and sane world, Peter Sinclair would have the clout and popularity of Watts, and Watts would be the virtually unknown one on YouTube posting videos watched by the same, (relatively) few loyal viewers as all the rest of his videos.

Unfortunately, the world is neither just nor fair nor, especially as of late, sane, and thus what each of these guys reap is exactly the opposite of what they deserve. Pass on the word about Sinclair’s videos (and might I also suggest potholer54’s) and maybe it won’t be this way forever.

At least Mr. Sinclair gets better views than Lee Doren’s “How the World Works” An Orwellian title if ever there was one.


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