Nate Silver's First Presidential Forecast: Clear Electoral Advantage for Obama

Nate Silver’s First Presidential Forecast: Clear Electoral Advantage for Obama

Get ready to wonk out

PoliticsJune 2012 • Views: 25,522

Nate Silver’s column for the New York Times is his first in-depth presidential forecast and general political wonk-fest.

The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

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57 comments

goddamnedfrank Thu, Jun 7, 2012 1:59:26pm

Wonder how Silver's models account for voter roll purges and other suppression efforts.

Romantic Heretic Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:02:45pm

Well, if people think electing Romney will fix an ailing economy, they are in for a nasty surprise. They ain't seen nothing yet.

Kragar Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:04:43pm

re: #2 Romantic Heretic

Well, if people think electing Romney will fix an ailing economy, they are in for a nasty surprise. They ain't seen nothing yet.

Judging from his track record, Romney would sell off 40 states to China so he could point to the last 10 and say what a great job he did.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:07:34pm

"but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible,"

Al Gore won 266, John Kerry won 251, and speaking as a democrat both of these have the Charisma of unbuttered toast give or take... show me the electoral map that has Obama winning less than 200....

Lord Baron Viscount Duke Earl Count Planckton Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:08:47pm

The Right-Wing Manure Machine has only just started though. We've seen nothing yet. In any case, it's probably gonna be close either way. And this is disturbing by itself.

goddamnedfrank Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:17:02pm

re: #2 Romantic Heretic

Well, if people think electing Romney will fix an ailing economy, they are in for a nasty surprise. They ain't seen nothing yet.

Romney's plan to gut social spending, medicare and education will have horribly expensive consequences and devastate the tax base. Combined with repealing health care coverage means that preventative care will be traded in for long term disease and costly medical emergencies, lost work, debt and bankruptcies. Any budget savings will go to increased military spending, probable war with Iran, rescinding the Afghanistan pullout, an arms race necessitated by more belligerent relations with Russia, and thousands more veteran amputees and traumatic brain injuries we're obligated to take care of for decades into the future.

Prideful, Arrogant Marriage Equality Advocate Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:22:25pm

Seriously? My grandfather left politics and the Republican party in the early 1980's. He was a purple heart medal recipient of world war II as well as a Japanese prisoner of war so not some hippie. Granted, he was a Yankee conservative but still even he knew way back then the Republican party was going nuts let alone whats happened recently. And yet still almost half of the voters of this country are OK with this? Wow, can't believe the current Republican party has that much support I don't care who's running against them, even a boot made out of potato's should have had an easy lead.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:24:33pm

re: #7 HUSKY White Male Lover

Seriously? My grandfather left politics and the Republican party in the early 1980's. He was a purple heart medal recipient of world war II as well as a Japanese prisoner of war so not some hippie. Granted, he was a Yankee conservative but still even he knew way back then the Republican party was going nuts let alone whats happened recently. And yet still almost half of the voters of this country are OK with this? Wow, can't believe the current Republican party has that much support I don't care who's running against them, even a boot made out of potato's should have had an easy lead.

At least we'd know where the boot stands.

(I'll see myself out)

Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:28:01pm

re: #7 HUSKY White Male Lover

Being a republican isn't about being in a party anymore, it's practically a religion with cult-like tendencies.

The Mountain That Blogs Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:29:00pm

re: #4 jamesfirecat

Here you go. This is pretty implausible, but any other way involves making New York, Illinois, or California go for Romney.

Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:30:57pm

O/T: Winger attempts to Breitbart Netroots Nation/Elizabeth Warren.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:31:32pm

re: #10 The Mountain That Blogs

Here you go. This is pretty implausible, but any other way involves making New York, Illinois, or California go for Romney.

Obama still breaks 200 in your set up. I really wonder what those people were smoking to think he could realistically go as low as 160.

The Mountain That Blogs Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:36:13pm

re: #12 jamesfirecat

The west coast, HI, NM, IL, and everything northeast of DC except Pennsylvania gets him to 195, but that involves losing all three big swing states (FL, PA, OH) as well as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. That just won't happen.

To get down to 160, he would have to lose New Jersey, Connecticut, and New Hampshire too. If all hell breaks loose, I could see Romney winning NH, but that's it.

Tigger2 Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:36:41pm

re: #6 goddamnedfrank

Romney's plan to gut social spending, medicare and education will have horribly expensive consequences and devastate the tax base. Combined with repealing health care coverage means that preventative care will be traded in for long term disease and costly medical emergencies, lost work, debt and bankruptcies. Any budget savings will go to increased military spending, probable war with Iran, rescinding the Afghanistan pullout, an arms race necessitated by more belligerent relations with Russia, and thousands more veteran amputees and traumatic brain injuries we're obligated to take care of for decades into the future.

I think Romney's numbers will fall some when he starts running on the Ryan plan.

Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:38:21pm

O/T but this is a real trip

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:38:29pm

re: #14 Tigger2

I think Romney's numbers will fall some when he starts running on the Ryan plan.

What's wrong with the Andrew Ryan Plan, is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow?

HappyWarrior Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:38:29pm

re: #14 Tigger2

I think Romney's numbers will fall some when he starts running on the Ryan plan.

Especially with older voters

makeitstop Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:40:05pm

re: #14 Tigger2

I think Romney's numbers will fall some when he starts running on the Ryan plan.

I think once the convention is over and Obama really starts hitting him, his numbers will start falling. And once team Rmoney starts whining about how the Big Mean Preznit is picking on him, they'll fall some more.

People forget how good a campaigner Obama is. And you know Rmoney is good for at least one stupid thing a week from now until November.

Tigger2 Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:40:43pm

re: #18 makeitstop

I think once the convention is over and Obama really starts hitting him, his numbers will start falling. And once team Rmoney starts whining about how the Big Mean Preznit is picking on him, they'll fall some more.

People forget how good a campaigner Obama is. And you know Rmoney is good for at least one stupid thing a week from now until November.

I agree.

HappyWarrior Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:41:59pm

re: #18 makeitstop

I think once the convention is over and Obama really starts hitting him, his numbers will start falling. And once team Rmoney starts whining about how the Big Mean Preznit is picking on him, they'll fall some more.

People forget how good a campaigner Obama is. And you know Rmoney is good for at least one stupid thing a week from now until November.

Let's hope so. This country doesn't need Mitt as its leader.

AK-47% Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:48:29pm

Sound tacticians in the GOP would have them back off social issues, abortion or contraception restrictions until November.

But the ideologues are too wound up to leave such issues. And the more theypass laws requiring doctors to stuff ultrasound wandss up vaginas, restrict access to contraception and Planned Parenthood services, the more Americans will begin to see what the GOP has planned for America under Mitt.

jaunte Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:53:01pm

Charles P. Pierce on the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Montana's Corrupt Practices Act:

Netroots Nation: The Money Game

....the Montana law is one of the only thin reeds standing in opposition to what Citizens United has unleashed, and Liz Kennedy, the counsel for the Democracy Program at Demos, already has a brief prepared in the hope that the Supreme Court at least will give the case a hearing. Kennedy has been chasing Citizens United and its bastardly progeny all over the country for the last couple of years, and has a decided knack for exploring the nooks and crannies of that decision to find the overlooked horrors in it that are generally obscured by the gigantic amounts of money it has brought down on democracy. For example, she argues, how can Justice Anthony Kennedy argue in Citizens United that the access and influence made possible by campaign money are not inherently corrupt, while arguing the exact opposite in Caperton vs. Massey Coal, a case in which the Supreme Court ruled that a justice of the West Virginia Supreme Court had to recuse himself from sitting on a case because he had taken money from the coal company in question for his campaign.

WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.] Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:55:33pm

re: #16 jamesfirecat

What's wrong with the Andrew Ryan Plan, is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow?

YOU CALL THAT A TENDERLION

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:57:04pm

re: #23 WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.]

YOU CALL THAT A TENDERLION

Speaking of which, I wonder just how much of a shit fit Infinite is going to causing giving that it's deconstructing "America is number 1 we can do no wrong!" theme the right loves even more than it does its objectivism.

God of Binders with Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 2:58:47pm

re: #12 jamesfirecat

Obama still breaks 200 in your set up. I really wonder what those people were smoking to think he could realistically go as low as 160.

Quite simple. Limbaugh said if the election were held today, it would be a landslide victory for Romney. Sounds good enough for me.
/

Daniel Ballard Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:03:55pm

re: #10 The Mountain That Blogs

Here you go. This is pretty implausible, but any other way involves making New York, Illinois, or California go for Romney.

No way is California going Romney. Not A Chance.

re: #21 Expand Your Ground

Sound tacticians in the GOP would have them back off social issues, abortion or contraception restrictions until November.

But the ideologues are too wound up to leave such issues. And the more they pass laws requiring doctors to stuff ultrasound wands up vaginas, restrict access to contraception and Planned Parenthood services, the more Americans will begin to see what the GOP has planned for America under Mitt.

There are no sound tacticians left with any influence in the GOP. Hell Carl Rove is more sensible than this TP bunch. Ruthless & mean as hell but "sound" in the tactical wisdom he has. Newt was once a sound tactician, no more. Long gone.

WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.] Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:04:07pm

re: #24 jamesfirecat

Speaking of which, I wonder just how much of a shit fit Infinite is going to causing giving that it's deconstructing "America is number 1 we can do no wrong!" theme the right loves even more than it does its objectivism.

It'll be fun to see what happens!

Daniel Ballard Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:05:15pm

re: #25 How Am I Gonna Get My Sixty Goals??!!

hey KidA I missed you online when you got that shot published. Nice work!!

Love to chat about Gettys terms with you sometime.

AK-47% Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:09:00pm

re: #26 Daniel Ballard

No way is California going Romney. Not A Chance.

re: #21 Expand Your Ground

There are no sound tacticians left with any influence in the GOP. Hell Carl Rove is more sensible than this TP bunch. Ruthless & mean as hell but "sound" in the tactical wisdom he has. Newt was once a sound tactician, no more. Long gone.

Remember how Carl Rove was forced to eat a big helping of crow for daring to intimate that Christine O'Donnel might not be an electable candidate?

And the people who forced him to back down her have faced no real consequences, either...

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:10:57pm

re: #29 Expand Your Ground

Remember how Carl Rove was forced to eat a big helping of crow for daring to intimate that Christine O'Donnel might not be an electable candidate?

And the people who forced him to back down her have faced no real consequences, either...

Karl Rove is Doctor Frankenstine, currently being throttled by his own monster.

(SED-A-GIVE!)

Page 3 in the Binder of Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:12:19pm

re: #25 How Am I Gonna Get My Sixty Goals??!!

Ha, I remember your nic from Rome!

Patricia Kayden Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:17:51pm

Hope Nate is right. I guess the Righties will work overtime to block the vote by purging Dems from the ballot in swing states a la our wonderful Governor in Florida.

God of Binders with Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:19:32pm

re: #28 Daniel Ballard

hey KidA I missed you online when you got that shot published. Nice work!!

Love to chat about Gettys terms with you sometime.

Thanks and anytime about Getty. I have no idea how to private message, etc. on here, but if you do, go right ahead.

God of Binders with Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:22:02pm

re: #31 Residence: Hopeandchangeistan 2012

Ha, I remember your nic from Rome!

Just for you! Have a listen!

Your text to link...

God of Binders with Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:24:54pm

re: #28 Daniel Ballard

Just sent you a request on Twitter.

jaunte Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:25:15pm

Sandra Fluke:

Risking Women’s Health in 50 Different Ways: Anti-Birth Control Advocates Turn to the States

Someone Please Beam Me Up! Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:26:30pm

Someone refresh my memory... am I correct in thinking that the last "sound businessman" we elected was Herbert Hoover? How'd that work out?

Buck Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:27:20pm

When one of the Presidential candidates is an incumbent, the undecided almost NEVER goes to that incumbent. The theory is that if you are undecided about re-electing the President, it would take something huge to move you into that column. It makes sense to be undecided about someone you know little about (in this case the challenger).

There was only one time when the undecided broke towards the incumbent President. Otherwise it is that number that defeated the incumbent George the Elder, and Jimmy the Anti-Semite.

Page 3 in the Binder of Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:28:44pm

re: #34 How Am I Gonna Get My Sixty Goals??!!

Just for you! Have a listen!

Your text to link...

Hahaha

Daniel Ballard Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:29:05pm

re: #33 How Am I Gonna Get My Sixty Goals??!!

I think the best might be email or Facebook. I'm pretty easy to find with my open online style. I checked the "show email" box anyway.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:30:59pm

re: #38 Buck

When one of the Presidential candidates is an incumbent, the undecided almost NEVER goes to that incumbent. The theory is that if you are undecided about re-electing the President, it would take something huge to move you into that column. It makes sense to be undecided about someone you know little about (in this case the challenger).

There was only one time when the undecided broke towards the incumbent President. Otherwise it is that number that defeated the incumbent George the Elder, and Jimmy the Anti-Semite.

What was the one exception to this rule? You state it exists but don't say what it is....

God of Binders with Women Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:31:06pm

re: #39 Residence: Hopeandchangeistan 2012

Hahaha

"All these fffffffffffffffffffffff prima donnas in the freakin' league!"

justaminute Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:32:00pm

I always wondered why no one has looked at Paul Ryan's accomplishments at University. He is touted as the Republicans economic guru.

He graduated from Miami University in Ohio with a bachelors dual degree in Economics and Political Science. No honors. It was listed that he made the dean's list once in junior college but nothing after. I looked at the Economics degree at Miami University in Ohio and it is filled with so many electives that they recommend you get a dual degree. Not impressive at all and he didn't even distinguish himself while pursuing that degree. And yet he showers us all with his economic wisdom.

Eventual Carrion Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:33:18pm

re: #43 justaminute

I always wondered why no one has looked at Paul Ryan's accomplishments at University. He is touted as the Republicans economic guru.

He graduated from Miami University in Ohio with a bachelors dual degree in Economics and Political Science. No honors. It was listed that he made the dean's list once in junior college but nothing after. I looked at the Economics degree at Miami University in Ohio and it is filled with so many electives that they recommend you get a dual degree. Not impressive at all and he didn't even distinguish himself while pursuing that degree. And yet he showers us all with his economic wisdom.

He's stayed at a Holiday Inn a couple times.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:33:45pm

re: #43 justaminute

I always wondered why no one has looked at Paul Ryan's accomplishments at University. He is touted as the Republicans economic guru.

He graduated from Miami University in Ohio with a bachelors dual degree in Economics and Political Science. No honors. It was listed that he made the dean's list once in junior college but nothing after. I looked at the Economics degree at Miami University in Ohio and it is filled with so many electives that they recommend you get a dual degree. Not impressive at all and he didn't even distinguish himself while pursuing that degree. And yet he showers us all with his economic wisdom.

You expected something else? The keystone of modern conservative economic doctrine (never, ever raise taxes) was thought up by a someone who was a teenager when they had the first place.

WINDUPBIRD DISEASE [S.K.U.M.M.] Thu, Jun 7, 2012 3:41:20pm

re: #38 Buck

When one of the Presidential candidates is an incumbent, the undecided almost NEVER goes to that incumbent. The theory is that if you are undecided about re-electing the President, it would take something huge to move you into that column. It makes sense to be undecided about someone you know little about (in this case the challenger).

There was only one time when the undecided broke towards the incumbent President. Otherwise it is that number that defeated the incumbent George the Elder, and ~~Jimmy the Anti-Semite~~ lol trollbait nice try bro

Varek Raith Thu, Jun 7, 2012 4:12:10pm

re: #38 Buck

And Buck the Canadian.
Did you know the GOP is not fond of foreigners opining on US politics?
;)

goddamnedfrank Thu, Jun 7, 2012 4:18:55pm

re: #41 jamesfirecat

What was the one exception to this rule? You state it exists but don't say what it is...

Bush Jr., against Kerry who was perceived as an out of touch elitist and attacked by the Swiftboaters as a fraud. There's a reason that Obama is pulling in a 5:1 fundraising advantage from active duty military personnel, they know who's actually got their back and who says he would have found a way to keep them in Iraq and is slavering for a ground war in Iran.

In the end the independents may still break for Romney, but he's got to get through the debates first and then we'll see where the polling is and many independents remain.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 4:23:18pm

re: #48 goddamnedfrank

Bush Jr., against Kerry who was perceived as an out of touch elitist and attacked by the Swiftboaters as a fraud. There's a reason that Obama is pulling in a 5:1 fundraising advantage from active duty military personnel, they know who's actually got their back and who says he would have found a way to keep them in Iraq and is slavering for a ground war in Iran.

In the end the independents may still break for Romney, but he's got to get through the debates first and then we'll see where the polling is and many independents remain.

Funny how Buck forgot to mention that the one exception to his rule was when when the Liberals were running a candidate who has more or less all of the exact same flaws that Mitt Romney currently has.....

Mattand Thu, Jun 7, 2012 5:50:20pm

re: #38 Buck

There was only one time when the undecided broke towards the incumbent President. Otherwise it is that number that defeated the incumbent George the Elder, and Jimmy the Anti-Semite.

Citation needed. Preferably grounded in reality.

Mattand Thu, Jun 7, 2012 5:55:05pm

re: #48 goddamnedfrank

In the end the independents may still break for Romney, but he's got to get through the debates first and then we'll see where the polling is and many independents remain.

I would hope the independents remember that conservatives essentially ran the the country from 2001 to 2008, and they fucked the joint up. Royally.

I would also hope they recognize that in spite of that record, the GOP is insisting that in order to fix the country, we need a President more conservative than Bush. Who ran the country from 2001 to 2008.

I'm not impressed by independents.

Lord Baron Viscount Duke Earl Count Planckton Thu, Jun 7, 2012 6:00:45pm

re: #49 jamesfirecat

Funny how Buck forgot to mention that the one exception to his rule was when when the Liberals were running a candidate who has more or less all of the exact same flaws that Mitt Romney currently has...

If we don't take into account rw smears like "elitist", "flip-flopper" and the whole swiftboating boondoggle, I don't see much common between their flaws. Well, low charisma, OK.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 6:02:05pm

re: #52 I'm back in the USSR (sigh)

If we don't take into account rw smears like "elitist", "flip-flopper" and the whole swiftboating boondoggle, I don't see much common between their flaws. Well, low charisma, OK.

They both Patrician flip floppers from Massachusetts with low charisma, you name me another flaw that Johnny Kerry has and we'll see if it applies to Mitt Romney.

Mattand Thu, Jun 7, 2012 6:10:34pm

re: #53 jamesfirecat

They both Patrician flip floppers from Massachusetts with low charisma, you name me another flaw that Johnny Kerry has and we'll see if it applies to Mitt Romney.

Let's see, John Kerry fought for his country in 'Nam while Romney hid behind his church's Golden Tablets.

When John Kerry wore a uniform, it was for fighting for his aforementioned country in the aforementioned conflict. When Romney wore a uniform, it was to terrorize people in possible violation of two states' laws.

AFAIK, John Kerry never committed assault with a deadly weapon against a classmate.

Yep, absolutely the same.

jamesfirecat Thu, Jun 7, 2012 6:13:33pm

re: #54 mattand

Let's see, John Kerry fought for his country in 'Nam while Romney hid behind his church's Golden Tablets.

When John Kerry wore a uniform, it was for fighting for his aforementioned country in the aforementioned conflict. When Romney wore a uniform, it was to terrorize people in possible violation of two states' laws.

AFAIK, John Kerry never committed assault with a deadly weapon against a classmate.

Yep, absolutely the same.

My point was that any flaw that John Kerry had could be slapped on Mitt Romney also... not that the reverse was true also.

Lord Baron Viscount Duke Earl Count Planckton Thu, Jun 7, 2012 6:14:50pm

re: #53 jamesfirecat

As pointed out above, Kerry wasn't a flip-flopper. He changed his positions, as everybody does from time to time, but there's nothing to suggest he changed them in order to pander to the crowds. Don't buy into rw memes (Al Gore invented the internet, etc.). Otherwise, being from Massachusetts and being rich aren't flaws in themselves (just like being a liberal isn't). Not character flaws in any case. Some people could perceive them as disadvantages, of course. Being an elitist may arguably be a character flaw, but I don't perceive an elitist attitude in Kerry.

So, only low charisma it is.

Mattand Thu, Jun 7, 2012 6:15:16pm

re: #55 jamesfirecat

My point was that any flaw that John Kerry had could be slapped on Mitt Romney also... not that the reverse was true also.

Sorry. If it helps, I didn't think you were ragging on Kerry.

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