Nate Silver’s First Presidential Forecast: Clear Electoral Advantage for Obama

Get ready to wonk out
Politics • Views: 24,634

Nate Silver’s column for the New York Times is his first in-depth presidential forecast and general political wonk-fest.

The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2016-01-01 10:29 am PST
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds Tweet

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal
Square Cash Shop at amazon
as an LGF Associate!
Recent PagesClick to refresh
Silversun Pickups - Toy Soldiers (Official Video) Our latest single “Toy Soldiers” is out now! Stream everywhere here: smarturl.it Directors: Claire Marie Vogel + Aaron Hymes Animation: Aaron Hymes Listen to our latest album Widow's Weeds here: smarturl.it silversunpickups.cominstagram.com@sspufacebook.com #SilversunPickups #SSPU #ToySoldiersSilversun Pickups - Toy Soldiers ...
Thanos
3 hours, 3 minutes ago
Views: 51 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Jorja Smith - Rose Rouge All proceeds from sales of this 7” single release via this store will be donated to the non-profit Kwanda, a platform designed to both help and encourage individuals giving back to, and building within, black communities. bluenotereimagined.lnk.to Rose Rouge ...
Thanos
3 hours, 22 minutes ago
Views: 65 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Doves - Prisoners Pre-order the The Universal Want here: doves.lnk.toListen to Doves – Prisoners here: doves.lnk.to Director : BWTVProducer : Jack LightfootEditor : Daniel DaviesAdditional VFX : Kye DorricottColourist : Dan MoranCommissioner : Paul McKeeDirector's Rep : Carrie SuttonProduction Company : Blindeye ...
Thanos
1 day, 16 hours ago
Views: 272 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
New From Future Islands - for Sure (Official Video) 'For Sure' by Future Islands, out now on all platforms: futureislands.ffm.to A Film by Samuel Jerome MasonFinishing by John HarrisonRendered with GarageFarmSpecial Thanks to Anna, Jemima, Mike, Willy, Saad, Eric, Arsen Perish the painI was impoverishedThose ties that windAnd ...
Thanos
3 days, 6 hours ago
Views: 413 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
(201) Norah Jones - Flame Twin "Flame Twin" is taken from Norah's newest album 'Pick Me Up Off The Floor,' out now and available to stream/download here: norahjones.lnk.to Connect with Norah:norahjones.cominstagram.comfacebook.com@NorahJones Music video by Norah Jones performing Flame Twin. © 2020 Capitol Records, LLC vevo.ly ...
Thanos
3 days, 6 hours ago
Views: 442 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
WOLF at the DOOR (MAYBE YOU) — DAS BLOKPRODUCED BY DAVID KAHNERECORDED AT THE AUTOMATT, S.F., 1981-1982 OWEN MASTERSON - VOCALS/GUITARJACK JOHNSON - GUITARS/VOCALSLARS MITCHELL - BASS/VOCALSSANDYJACK REINER - DRUMS/VOCALS
Thanos
3 days, 9 hours ago
Views: 437 • Comments: 2 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 4 • Share to Facebook
Nu Deco Ensemble & Kishi Bashi - I Am the Antichrist to You Nu Deco Ensemble and Kishi Bashi perform "I Am the Antichrist to You," live and reimagined for the orchestra at New World Center in Miami Beach, FL. NDE website: nu-deco.orgNDE Instagram: instagram.comNDE Twitter: @nudecoensembleNDE Facebook: facebook.com Kishi Bashi website: ...
Thanos
4 days, 4 hours ago
Views: 581 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook
Usher - I Cry (Official Video) This video is in honor of the courage and bravery of the activists and organizations who are demanding a change to broken systems rooted in hundreds of years of racism. It includes iconic photography from the great humanitarian and ...
Thanos
4 days, 4 hours ago
Views: 466 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Dave Brubeck - Golden Brown A little tribute to Dave Greenfield (keyboardist with The Stranglers who died with Covid-19 last week) and Paul Desmond (saxophonist with the Dave Brubeck quartet - the anniversary of his death is at the end of this month). Also ...
Thanos
4 days, 4 hours ago
Views: 549 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook
When the Air Becomes the EnemyIn March we barely knew how COVID-19 spread. We ran with a number of assumptions. And we got spanked. By the virus. What we humans got right or wrong is for another Page. As I write this the United States ...
Rightwingconspirator
4 days, 11 hours ago
Views: 440 • Comments: 3 • Rating: 3
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook