New CNN Poll: Obama Leads Romney by 7 Points

Mendacious Mitt’s unfavorable rating soars

PoliticsAugust 2012 • Views: 27,314

The latest national CNN/ORC International survey is not good news for Mitt Romney; his unfavorable rating has jumped to 48%, and President Obama now has a 7-point lead.

It all adds up to a seven point advantage for President Barack Obama over the former Massachusetts governor, with 52% of registered voters questioned in the survey saying that they’d vote to re-elect the president and 45% backing Romney.

“Among independent voters, the poll indicates President Obama has a 53%-42% lead,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. “The president holds a nine point advantage among women voters and a smaller six point edge among men.” …

While Romney’s favorable rating has remained steady (47% now compared to 48% in July), his unfavorable rating has jumped from 42% last month to 48% now. The president’s 56%-42% favorable-unfavorable rating now is little changed from July.

Among independents, the poll indicates Romney’s image has taken a beating. In May, only 40% of independents had an unfavorable view of Romney. Now, 52% of independents have a negative view of him.

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71 comments

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:17:44pm

And as bad as things have gotten, there's two months left to go and plenty of room left for his favorability to further tank. I'm not really sure there's anybody in the VP bullpen who could answer his charisma problem satisfactorily.

Kragar Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:18:57pm

re: #1 Targetpractice

And as bad as things have gotten, there's two months left to go and plenty of room left for his favorability to further tank. I'm not really sure there's anybody in the VP bullpen who could answer his charisma problem satisfactorily.

Any VP choice Romney makes is only going to cost him votes.

b_sharp Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:19:24pm

re: #1 Targetpractice

And as bad as things have gotten, there's two months left to go and plenty of room left for his favorability to further tank. I'm not really sure there's anybody in the VP bullpen who could answer his charisma problem satisfactorily.

He should pick Coulter.

Or Crusty the Clown.

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:20:19pm

re: #2 Kragar

Any VP choice Romney makes is only going to cost him votes.

Supposedly the whole thing is about trying to win swing states, but I can't think of a swing state governor or Congress critter who wouldn't just further drag down his campaign.

erik_t Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:20:34pm

In before the grumping:

No, national polls don't matter in that presidents aren't elected nationally. Go look at Nate Silver for that.

But elections in this day and age are asinine media-driven circuses, and national polling numbers drive the clowncar very strongly. And the general stench of what passes for political discourse does influence individual voters to some degree.

So there.

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:20:46pm

Burn! Looks like the King of Bain isn't doing very well is he.

b_sharp Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:22:32pm

re: #5 erik_t

In before the grumping:

No, national polls don't matter in that presidents aren't elected nationally. Go look at Nate Silver for that.

But elections in this day and age are asinine media-driven circuses, and national polling numbers drive the clowncar very strongly. And the general stench of what passes for political discourse does influence individual voters to some degree.

So there.

How do they fit so many people in that little car?

Kragar Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:22:46pm

re: #4 Targetpractice

Supposedly the whole thing is about trying to win swing states, but I can't think of a swing state governor or Congress critter who wouldn't just further drag down his campaign.

And if he tries to win the Evangelicals, the old guard GOP will be pissed. If he ignores the Evangelicals, they'll start a jihad against him.

Lidane Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:23:03pm

Yes, it's too soon to call the election, especially this far out. I won't take a damned thing for granted until the votes are in.

Still, these kinds of polls are good for seeing the RWNJ agita over their shitty nominee and his Keystone Kops campaign.

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:24:13pm

re: #9 Lidane

Yes, it's too soon to call the election, especially this far out. I won't take a damned thing for granted until the votes are in.

Still, these kinds of polls are good for seeing the RWNJ agita over their shitty nominee and his Keystone Kops campaign.

I see most are starting to lock down and go into crisis mode. You know, the one here they go "Only votes that count on Election Day" as a response to every bad poll or news release.

Kragar Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:25:46pm

Mitt is absolutely beholden to people like this:

Bryan Fischer Believes Nancy Pelosi 'Heard the Voice of Demonic Spirits'

erik_t Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:26:58pm

re: #11 Kragar

Bryan Fischer Believes Nancy Pelosi 'Heard the Voice of Demonic Spirits'

How? Did she take a phone call from Bryan Fischer?

b_sharp Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:28:01pm

re: #11 Kragar

Mitt is absolutely beholden to people like this:

Bryan Fischer Believes Nancy Pelosi 'Heard the Voice of Demonic Spirits'

It was just the building settling.

nines09 Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:29:32pm

re: #11 Kragar

Mitt is absolutely beholden to people like this:

Bryan Fischer Believes Nancy Pelosi 'Heard the Voice of Demonic Spirits'

Nancy had Rush on?

jaunte Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:29:52pm

Mitt Romney has only three more months to convince right wingers that he's out of his mind.
— Andy Borowitz (@BorowitzReport) August 9, 2012

lawhawk Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:30:04pm

63% say Romney should release the tax records for additional years.
64% say Romney favors rich over everyone else.
42% say Obama favors middle class; 34% favors poor; only 18% say he favors wealthy.

As for who everyone polled thinks would win, 63% think Obama wins. Only 33% say Romney.

[Link: i2.cdn.turner.com...]

Only thing I couldn't quite figure was the breakdown of who was polled: D/R/I. The closest I got was seeing that 419 R and R leaning I were polled on certain questions. That could presumably skew the results some.

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:33:36pm

re: #15 jaunte

[Embedded content]

That's the funny thing that I noticed in some reporting on his Romneycare blips, that some were suggesting that his campaign might have decided that the wingnuts are gonna vote for him regardless and that he might be trying to moderate himself in order to win back the independents.

I immediately laughed because it indicates that binary thinking that people only have two parties to choose from, that everybody will inevitably decide that they can't vote for Obama so they'll vote Romney. Obviously those pundits thinking that haven't talked to many Paulians or wingnuts who have decided they'd rather vote third party or stay home rather than vote for "Obama-lite."

Charles Johnson Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:35:12pm

Also interesting:

Who do Americans think will win the election?

Regardless of which candidate they support, 63% think Obama will win re-election, with one third saying Romney will win.

AK-47% Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:35:43pm

Things that can bring Obama down:

oil prices. just starting to rise, and now is about the time that a concentrated effort among speculators can produce a peak in prices in late October

Food prices. the drought has already squeezed production, making it even easier for speculators to start squeezing

Given that food and gasoline are the chief expenses for most families after rent, this would really make it easier for the GOP to push the economy as a selling point.

jaunte Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:35:52pm

re: #17 Targetpractice

Crazy will only get him about a third of the way. (But the rest of the country can see who he's pandering to, to get those votes).

b_sharp Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:37:12pm

re: #16 lawhawk

63% say Romney should release the tax records for additional years.
64% say Romney favors rich over everyone else.
42% say Obama favors middle class; 34% favors poor; only 18% say he favors wealthy.

As for who everyone polled thinks would win, 63% think Obama wins. Only 33% say Romney.

[Link: i2.cdn.turner.com...]

Only thing I couldn't quite figure was the breakdown of who was polled: D/R/I. The closest I got was seeing that 419 R and R leaning I were polled on certain questions. That could presumably skew the results some.

If the poll is conducted randomly then the number of R/D/I is what you're trying to find out. By weighting them in order to balance the R/D/I you are skewing the sample.

Lidane Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:38:08pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

Exactly, which is why nobody should take polls like these for granted this far out. Anything can happen between now and November 6th.

b_sharp Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:38:16pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

Things that can bring Obam down:

oil prices. just starting to rise, and now is about the time that a concedrted effort among speculators can produce a peak in prices in late October

Food prices. the drought has already squeezed production, making it even easier for speculators to start squeezing

Given that food and gasoline are the chief expenses for most families after rent, this would really make it easier for the GOP to push the economy as a selling point.

At this point, I think Obama would have to pull a Glenn Beck to lose.

Sionainn Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:38:42pm

re: #12 erik_t

How? Did she take a phone call from Bryan Fischer?

Good one!

Obdicut Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:38:50pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

The packaging and other costs of food in the US generally outstrips the core costs by a large margin, giving us some insulation from price bumps due to crop loss. So there's that.

b_sharp Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:39:16pm

BBL

engineer cat Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:40:14pm

romney is in "needs to move the needle" territory

Sionainn Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:40:43pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

Things that can bring Obam down:

oil prices. just starting to rise, and now is about the time that a concedrted effort among speculators can produce a peak in prices in late October

Food prices. the drought has already squeezed production, making it even easier for speculators to start squeezing

Given that food and gasoline are the chief expenses for most families after rent, this would really make it easier for the GOP to push the economy as a selling point.

That's only true among the idiot crowd. The rest of us realize that those are things the president can't control.

Killgore Trout Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:41:22pm

This may cause a stir.....
I have a guilty pleasure of playing silly little browser based games. This one (Planet Juicer) has a final boss fight with a little Obama in a tank attacking your units. Kind of cute but the victory screen is the kind of thing that could get the developers a visit from the Secret Service.

Image: Obamaslayer.jpg

engineer cat Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:42:04pm

re: #25 Obdicut

The packaging and other costs of food in the US generally outstrips the core costs by a large margin, giving us some insulation from price bumps due to crop loss. So there's that.

i wonder what percentage of the cost of a typical food item comes from gasoline

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:42:35pm

OT and oy...

Mississippi Museum Reverse Course, Opens Facility To Same-Sex Commitment Ceremony

HYDE-SMITH: In late July, my office received a letter from Attorney General Hood advising that under Mississippi law, the application could not be refused. Based on my personal and religious beliefs, I strongly object to this, but I have no alternative, due to this advice, but to allow the processing of this permit to move forward. This process contains multiple steps and is currently not finalized.[...]

While this same-sex couple’s request for a permit to utilize one of our state’s facilities for a “commitment ceremony” is not being defined as a marriage ceremony, it is personally troubling for me. Furthermore, based on the legal advice from the Attorney General and the lack of clarity of state law regarding usage of state facilities for these kinds of activities, the legal grounds to deny this request were not found by the Attorney General because the ceremony is, not on its face a violate of state law.

Blah, blah, blah. Thanks.

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:46:33pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

Things that can bring Obama down:

oil prices. just starting to rise, and now is about the time that a concentrated effort among speculators can produce a peak in prices in late October

Food prices. the drought has already squeezed production, making it even easier for speculators to start squeezing

Given that food and gasoline are the chief expenses for most families after rent, this would really make it easier for the GOP to push the economy as a selling point.

Both are true, but at the same time, what can Romney really promise? Current oil price spikes, at least from what I heard, are due in part to refinery troubles and oil pipe spills. Promising to fast-track Keystone and throw open the coastline to further drilling isn't going to drop the price of black gold overnight.

AK-47% Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:48:00pm

re: #32 Targetpractice

Both are true, but at the same time, what can Romney really promise? Current oil price spikes, at least from what I heard, are due in part to refinery troubles and oil pipe spills. Promising to fast-track Keystone and throw open the coastline to further drilling isn't going to drop the price of black gold overnight.

It's not about what the President can control or what Romney can promise, it is what they can blame on Obama.

dragonfire1981 Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:48:28pm

re: #6 Gus

Burn! Looks like the King of Bain isn't doing very well is he.

I have stood here before drinking some good champagne,
Talking to wealthy donors to my big campaign,
I always hoped I could end Obama's reign,
But it's my destiny to be the King of Bain...

erik_t Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:48:36pm

re: #32 Targetpractice

Both are true, but at the same time, what can Romney really promise? Current oil price spikes, at least from what I heard, are due in part to refinery troubles and oil pipe spills. Promising to fast-track Keystone and throw open the coastline to further drilling isn't going to drop the price of black gold overnight.

Counter-point: people are really, really dumb. Really.

But I'm not holding my breath about gas prices. Only the Euro kerfluffle really concerns me.

dragonfire1981 Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:48:50pm

Good logic or not?

engineer cat Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:49:40pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

Things that can bring Obama down:

oil prices

at the rate things have been going, next election the gop will run an oil millionaire

or mitt will pick one for vp

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:50:31pm

re: #36 dragonfire1981

Good logic or not?

Youtube Video

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:51:47pm

Looks like Romney has the lowest support among Latinos of any GOP nominee since Bob Dole: wapo.st/MVigCK via @jbouie
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) August 9, 2012

dragonfire1981 Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:52:35pm

re: #39 Gus

[Embedded content]

But, but he's MEXICAN!

Ming Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:53:01pm

re: #4 Targetpractice

Supposedly the whole thing is about trying to win swing states, but I can't think of a swing state governor or Congress critter who wouldn't just further drag down his campaign.

I'm afraid I must be a bit negative, and caution that with the efforts (reported in LGF and elsewhere) of Republicans to pass voter ID laws in swing states, notably Florida and Pennsylvania, we should all want to know if these polls will reflect voters who are not only likely voters, but who will actually be ELIGIBLE to vote on November 6.

In several blogs (and other news sources), I see poll after poll, but I never see a qualifier such as: "the population sampled for this poll reflects the population that will be eligible to vote in Pennsylvania, in accordance with the voter ID laws of that state."

I really would love to enjoy the good news that Obama is polling well, and Romney has high unfavorable ratings. I really would. But the voter ID laws have a purpose. And it doesn't take much to swing an election... look at Florida in 2000. (Or, to be fair, Illinois in 1960.)

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:54:19pm

re: #33 Expand Your Ground

It's not about what the President can control or what Romney can promise, it is what they can blame on Obama.

And the answer, at least when the question was asked earlier this year, was "Not doing anything about speculators." The White House helped avoid most of the blame for high oil/gas prices by pointing out that oil production and the number of oil wells dug had both climbed during his administration, to the point that America's returned to being a net exporter. If the GOP tries again with "Obama's responsible for high oil prices!," the answer is to point out that while oil prices were dropping earlier this year, the GOP either kept quiet or mumbled "Well, it's because of the free market, not Obama."

Killgore Trout Thu, Aug 9, 2012 2:59:38pm

re: #41 Ming

I think it's very unlikely the voter ID laws are going to have much of an effect. I know they're being billed as a conspiracy to steal the election but what most critics don;t tell you is that you can still vote without ID. You just have to sign a piece of paper confirming you are who you say you are. The number of politically active voters without ID is probably very low and the vast majority of them aren't going to show up to vote then refuse to sign the paper. The effect will likely be very small if there's any effect at all.

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:00:41pm

re: #41 Ming

I'm afraid I must be a bit negative, and caution that with the efforts (reported in LGF and elsewhere) of Republicans to pass voter ID laws in swing states, notably Florida and Pennsylvania, we should all want to know if these polls will reflect voters who are not only likely voters, but who will actually be ELIGIBLE to vote on November 6.

In several blogs (and other news sources), I see poll after poll, but I never see a qualifier such as: "the population sampled for this poll reflects the population that will be eligible to vote in Pennsylvania, in accordance with the voter ID laws of that state."

I really would love to enjoy the good news that Obama is polling well, and Romney has high unfavorable ratings. I really would. But the voter ID laws have a purpose. And it doesn't take much to swing an election... look at Florida in 2000. (Or, to be fair, Illinois in 1960.)

Everywhere I've looked, the Voter ID laws are either in middle of court battles or being suspended while the appeals are heard. Yeah, I don't take these polls as gospel, but I do think that they spell out an increasingly poor situation for Romney. If things continue their downward slide for him, he'd have to steal half the country just to win.

funky chicken Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:01:01pm

re: #2 Kragar

Any VP choice Romney makes is only going to cost him votes.

Well, any VP choice Romney makes

who would be willing to accept the offer

will only cost him votes. Wingnuts are salivating over Petraeus as VP nominee, but I just don't think the guy is stupid enough to accept the offer. Romney has insulted England in word and in writing, is persona non grata with Italy for scamming them of tens of millions of dollars while at Bain, and just insulted kibbutzes in Israel after having insulted Palestinian culture as being inferior to Israeli. The guy is a walking insult generator.

I can't imagine what desperate pleas and offers are being made to Chris Christie and Tim Pawlenty right now to get them to sign on to this sinking ship. I guess Pawlenty is unemployed, so he might as well sign up for some of that Sheldon Adelson money while it's on the table.

sagehen Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:02:30pm

It's still going to be very, very close... there's massive Obama leads in some large states that nobody ever doubted would go blue, that skews the national average.

It's all going to come down to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:02:38pm

OK folks! No need to worry about all of these new voter ID laws. KT says it's just a conspiracy and all you have to do is sign a piece of paper. See. All that worrying and court hearings was about nothing.

sagehen Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:06:21pm

re: #19 Expand Your Ground

Things that can bring Obama down:

oil prices. just starting to rise, and now is about the time that a concentrated effort among speculators can produce a peak in prices in late October

Food prices. the drought has already squeezed production, making it even easier for speculators to start squeezing

Given that food and gasoline are the chief expenses for most families after rent, this would really make it easier for the GOP to push the economy as a selling point.

The Grexit.

If Europe doesn't figure out a solution to their problem, it will send the whole world into spasms, and Americans will blame the American president.

Obdicut Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:06:58pm

re: #43 Killgore Trout

The actual studies on this have shown a significant numbers of actual voters who lack ID. And provisional ballots, which is what you're preferring to, a study showed that 21% of those were rejected even though most were of properly registered voters.

For more information, you might want to check out the excellent Brennan Center for Justice

That will give you a better idea of the state of things.

erik_t Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:07:06pm

re: #47 Gus

OK folks! No need to worry about all of these new voter ID laws. KT says it's just a conspiracy and all you have to do is sign a piece of paper. See. All that worrying and court hearings was about nothing.

Can I at least be concerned?

erik_t Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:08:57pm

re: #46 sagehen

It's all going to come down to Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

Shrug. No Pennsylvania poll has shown Romney ahead since February (and that was a single apparent outlier); three Ohio polls have shown Romney leads this calendar year.

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:11:54pm

Voter Laws Pose Risk to Obama in Republican-Led States - Businessweek

The last Sunday before Election Day is the same every time for Jerry West. He closes his Jacksonville, Florida, music shop selling eight-track tapes and vinyl records, casts his ballot at an early voting site and drives 20 or so shut-ins to the polls.

“They tell me all the time if it wasn’t for me they couldn’t have voted,” West, 63, said of the elderly voters. “I don’t know what they’ll do now.”

This year, early voting in the country’s biggest swing state will end sooner under a new election law that Democrats have sued to block, claiming it’s likely to hurt minority-voter turnout.

Florida is among four key states where restrictions on voter eligibility, approved by Republican-controlled legislatures, threaten President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects in a race against Republican Mitt Romney that opinion polls suggest will be close. The U.S. Justice Department as well as civil liberties and voter-advocacy groups have sued to throw out many of these rules.

Continues.

Targetpractice Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:12:45pm

re: #51 erik_t

Shrug. No Pennsylvania poll has shown Romney ahead since February (and that was a single apparent outlier); three Ohio polls have shown Romney leads this calendar year.

And that's why I am concerned about Voter ID laws, but not scared just yet. The greater the margin of victory Obama goes into Election Day with, the better the chances that no amount of tossed votes win the day for him. The GOP seemed to have been hoping for a close election that they could swing their way by denying Democrats votes at the ballot box. Instead, it looks like it might be a blow-out that leaves their attempts to steal the vote all the more visible.

William Barnett-Lewis Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:14:39pm

Speaking of elections, I got myself registered to vote (and volunteered to be a poll worker) the other day in time for the fall primary here in Wisconsin. Only contested election in my district is the Republican Senate race. Hmm... who would be easier for the Democratic candidate, Tammy Baldwin, to defeat?

Our list of choices:

Jeff Fitzgerald (R) - State Assembly Speaker, Ex-Beaver Dam City Councilman & Ex-Financial Futures Trader, major slimeball
Eric Hovde (R) - Hedge Fund Managment Firm CEO & Venture Capitalist, even bigger slimeball
Mark Neumann (R) - Ex-Congressman, Real Estate Developer, '10 Gov. Candidate & '98 US Sen. Nominee, moron of the first water
Tommy Thompson (R) - Ex-Governor, Ex-US Health Secretary, Ex-State Assembly Minority Leader, Attorney & '08 Pres. Candidate, not bright, doesn't have his former puppet masters helping him & holds a shrinking lead in the polls. Of them, he'd do the least damage if he did get into office so that's a reason to vote for him. But just remember how he blew the anthrax thing in the cabinet...

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:18:22pm

The fact that Republicans have declared a War on Women makes me think women must have oil.
— Andy Borowitz (@BorowitzReport) August 9, 2012

jaunte Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:20:22pm

Charles P. Pierce on Paul Ryan's chances for the VP slot:

Paul Ryan Is Not a Vice President. Paul Ryan Is a Fake

...he went to work in Washington for a variety of conservative congresscritters and think-tanks, thinking unremarkable thoughts for fairly unremarkable people. Once in Congress, however, he has been transformed into an intellectual giant despite the fact that, every time he comes up with another "budget," actual economists get a look at it and determine, yet again, that between "What We Should Do" and "Great Things That Will Happen When We Do" is a wilderness of dreamy nonsense, wishful thinking, and an asterisk the size of Lake Huron.

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:21:17pm

White Supremacists: This I.Q. test weeds out the really stupid ones

SanFranciscoZionist Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:21:27pm

re: #55 Gus

[Embedded content]

God bless Borowitz.

Killgore Trout Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:22:43pm

re: #56 jaunte

Charles P. Pierce on Paul Ryan's chances for the VP slot:

Paul Ryan Is Not a Vice President. Paul Ryan Is a Fake

None of the VP choices look very good. The biggest challenge is going to find the one that sucks the least.

SanFranciscoZionist Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:24:11pm

re: #59 Killgore Trout

None of the VP choices look very good. The biggest challenge is going to find the one that sucks the least.

Getting the most bang for your buck out of a rather picked-over salad bar.

I currently think Pawlenty or someone like him is most likely, but I'd almost like to see a dramatic, weird choice that will give the election some zing. We lack zing right now.

goddamnedfrank Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:24:23pm

While there are a lot of factors I think it's the refusal to release his tax returns that's really hurting Romney right now. The thing is that in doubling down on the intransigence he's wasting valuable time for what's in those returns to defuse, so that the numbers hit he takes from whatever bad information they contain has less and less time to decay via half life. It's a self reinforcing paradigm, the more he suffers in the polls as time goes by the more reluctant he gets to deal with the root cause of his suffering.

He's also doing everything to reinforce the negative connotation created by the failure to release the returns, that he's untrustworthy. Using his official campaign to air multiple lying ads about Obama isn't helping, whereas the Obama campaign seems to understand the whole point of Citizen's United, that the really dirty politicking should get done by surrogates and other deniable assets.

Gus Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:26:33pm

BBL

Digital Display Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:28:11pm

Hiya Lizards! I generally don't think polls matter till the debates.
Everything changes. I can't wait...
In fact..It's like a drawn out pregame show till then...I'm starting odds tonight.
10 to 1 Obama gets Mitt to declare, ' I'm not a Crook '
4 to 1 Mitt never gets it till his staffers tell him later.

palomino Thu, Aug 9, 2012 3:50:19pm

re: #59 Killgore Trout

None of the VP choices look very good. The biggest challenge is going to find the one that sucks the least.

I'm not a fan of Romney or Rubio. But I think Rubio makes sense: he's fairly popular in FL, and the other people under consideration have flaws and are as dull as Romney. At least Rubio has a little charisma, and he might help deliver the largest of all battleground states.

SanFranciscoZionist Thu, Aug 9, 2012 4:08:21pm

re: #13 b_sharp

It was just the building settling.

No, it was just the House settling.

(Can't take credit. That was my husband.)

goddamnedfrank Thu, Aug 9, 2012 4:11:42pm

re: #64 palomino

I'm not a fan of Romney or Rubio. But I think Rubio makes sense: he's fairly popular in FL, and the other people under consideration have flaws and are as dull as Romney. At least Rubio has a little charisma, and he might help deliver the largest of all battleground states.

Rubio loses the birthers though, because they don't believe he's a "natural born" citizen. He was also raised Mormon before converting to Catholicism. The so con wingnut birthers want a militant Protestant wack a do. Rubio would have the WND / Freeper crown vowing to stay home en masse.

palomino Thu, Aug 9, 2012 4:17:23pm

re: #66 goddamnedfrank

Rubio loses the birthers though, because they don't believe he's a "natural born" citizen. He was also raised Mormon before converting to Catholicism. The so con wingnut birthers want a militant Protestant wack a do. Rubio would have the WND / Freeper crown vowing to stay home en masse.

I hope you're right, but my impression is that on the right, Obama hatred trumps all. If the far right is willing to vote for Mitt, they'll be willing to vote for Rubio, a guy who has TP cred. In the end, better a Mormon and a Catholic than a Muslim, right?

Robert O. Thu, Aug 9, 2012 4:25:24pm

Obama's numbers are moving up. Fox News (!) has a poll showing Obama leading Romney by 9%. Real Clear Politics has shown Obama opening the largest gap against Romney since Romney secured his nomination.

But I do wonder what is the source of Obama's new strength compared to just two weeks ago though. The race had been static for months, with Obama's average lead in the national poll over Romney always remaining within a 1% to 3% window. The attack ads against Bain Capital has been going on for a while. Mitt Romney's foreign misadventure was probably not even followed by most Americans.

The cynic in me seem to think public emotions are currently on a bit of a roll with the US doing pretty well at the Olympics. If you ignored the boycotted Games in '84, and Atlanta where we had home advantage, and Mexico City for some unknown reason, the US Gold Medal tally since World War II has always been 32 to 40 - a remarkably static performance. Other countries (USSR, East Germany, Australia) came and went, but the US has always been "the constant" at Olympics. In fact, the Gold tally in 2000, 2004 and 2008 read 37, 36 and 36. I am currently projecting around 44 golds for the US, which is well outside of our recent historic average!

The Mongoose Thu, Aug 9, 2012 4:45:52pm

The Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls have consistently shown a near-tied race, while the one-off polls have consistently shown a statistically significant lead for the President.

There is a serious difference in polling methodologies between these two groups, and if I were them I'd be concerned about being embarrassed in November. Unless those gaps start to close, someone's going to look stupid.

Patricia Kayden Thu, Aug 9, 2012 6:48:31pm

That CNN poll looks great, but seems too optimistic at this point. I assume the general election will be extremely tight, but that the swing states will give Obama the edge.

Or so I hope.

Patricia Kayden Thu, Aug 9, 2012 7:10:25pm

re: #68 Robert O.

I just saw that Fox News poll too. WOW! But can this hold all the way to November? I doubt it. The Koch billionaires et. al are going to unleash their millions to get Romney elected. They may not be successful (cross fingers/toes), but I'm sure they'll spend enough to keep this a tight race.

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New CNN Poll: Obama Leads Romney by 7 Points

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