Is Romney Giving Up on Michigan and Pennsylvania?

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There are signs that the Romney campaign and associated Super PACs have given up on winning the important swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The Romney campaign and conservative groups like Crossroads GPS have pulled TV ads in Michigan, Romney’s home state, according to the Detroit News.

Nor are the campaign and super PACs running advertising in Pennsylvania, after unleashing a barrage there over the past five months.

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64 comments
1 Vicious Michigan Union Thug  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:03:58am

That leaves more ad time for Matty Moroun, the Bridge Troll.

2 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:04:18am

That one guy sounded so confident about Romney taking Pennsylvania though. But really that's not a good sign for Romney. He didn't need to take those but he needed to be competitive there and throwing the towel in this early isn't a good sign.

3 Obdicut  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:05:12am

This also shows the weakness of the rule preventing collaboration and communication between the supposedly-independent PACs and the campaigns.

4 Kragar  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:07:16am

CWA: If Sandra Fluke Just Spent Less on Beer, She Could Afford Her Own Birth Control

Concerned Women for America's president Penny Nance recently sat down with CWA to discuss the different ways in which the Republican and Democrats are trying to appeal to women in their respective conventions and messages.

While the GOP was working to highlight pro-life women leaders, Nance said, the Democrats were trying to appeal to women like Sandra Fluke by handing out free birth control ... women who, if they just spent less money on beer, could afford their own birth control:

5 Vicious Michigan Union Thug  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:07:55am

I think the PAC which pays for the ads, at least in MI, is "Americans for Prosperity" which is a front group for the Koch Bros. and Matty Moroun.

6 Vicious Michigan Union Thug  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:08:38am

re: #4 Kragar

CWA: If Sandra Fluke Just Spent Less on Beer, She Could Afford Her Own Birth Control

Gena Rinehart is a member of CWA?

7 Lidane  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:09:03am

How many electoral votes are in Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's huge.

Also, how are they spinning this? I can't see pulling ads out of Michigan and Pennsylvania as anything other than defeat on their part.

8 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:09:15am

re: #4 Kragar

CWA: If Sandra Fluke Just Spent Less on Beer, She Could Afford Her Own Birth Control

Spend less money on beer? What the fuck, CWA? Really I am getting sick of the lies about that woman. She was initially speaking on behalf of a friend until pigs like Rush decided to smear her.

9 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:09:49am

This is probably a smart move. Barring a major national swing (unlikely) I can't see either of these states voting for Romney. His electoral math works best by primarily pursuing the combination of states that re-elected President Bush in 2004, with only a couple of small changes (New Mexico is probably out of play, Nevada will be very tough to win, and Wisconsin is winnable).

10 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:10:49am

re: #7 Lidane

How many electoral votes are in Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's huge.

Also, how are they spinning this? I can't see pulling ads out of Michigan and Pennsylvania as anything other than defeat on their part.

38 36. Republicans actually haven't won both states since 1988 but here's the catch. When Bush was running and winning by one state in each of his elections, he was competitive in both states.

11 Amory Blaine  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:11:57am

I hope the fire shown at the DNC starts to spread.

12 Talking Point Detective  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:12:29am

Doesn't matter.

Dems booed god!

Thats all that counts! Just check the Fox News headlines!

13 Four More Tears  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:13:28am

Where's Sarah Palin to tell him that's a bad idea?

14 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:14:10am

re: #12 Talking Point Detective

Doesn't matter.

Dems booed god!

Thats all that counts! Just check the Fox News headlines!

It was an incredibly stupid move to try to cram that stuff back in on the floor...and probably even dumber to leave it out in the first place. Paul Begala said as much...he knows the GOP will make hay with it wherever they can.

15 allegro  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:15:03am

re: #4 Kragar

CWA: If Sandra Fluke Just Spent Less on Beer, She Could Afford Her Own Birth Control

She impresses me as more of a wine drinker.

16 Targetpractice  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:15:16am

My guess is they're gonna use these resources to carpet bomb Florida between now and the debates, in the hopes of overcoming Obama's narrow lead there.

17 iceweasel  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:15:45am

re: #12 Talking Point Detective

Doesn't matter.

Dems booed god!

Thats all that counts! Just check the Fox News headlines!

My name is The Left, and I approve this message.

18 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:16:09am

re: #10 HappyWarrior

38. Republicans actually haven't won both states since 1988 but here's the catch. When Bush was running and winning by one state in each of his elections, he was competitive in both states.

36, but your point is sound. The difference has less to do with Bush/Romney than it does with Obama. His ability to turn out the vote in the major urban centers in those states is incredibly powerful.

19 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:17:21am

It's tough because really outside of Indiana, there are really no states that look for sure to turn back from Obama to the Republican column. I'm not suggesting that Indiana will be the only one that does bear in mind but I am suggesting that that's a troubling fact to them. Oh, and well Romney is certainly eager to win this state back, Obama's been winning the tv war as far as I'm concerned and he unlike Mitt seems to be going out of his comfort zone.

20 Sionainn  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:18:58am

But I thought Romney and company had beaucoup bucks to spend on advertising?

//

21 Targetpractice  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:19:42am

re: #20 Sionainn

But I thought Romney and company had beaucoup bucks to spend on advertising?

//

He has the monetary might of the GOP behind him! We should shake and shiver in fear of what they can do with it!!

///

22 allegro  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:19:55am

re: #20 Sionainn

But I thought Romney and company had beaucoup bucks to spend on advertising?

//

Already starting to cut their losses?

23 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:20:03am

re: #18 The Mongoose

36, but your point is sound. The difference has less to do with Bush/Romney than it does with Obama. His ability to turn out the vote in the major urban centers in those states is incredibly powerful.

Yeah I was looking at the 2008 stats and forgot the census. I think you're right there but I think Bush's style was better suited for those states than Romney's. The other thing though is Obama's very good in the suburbs as well.

24 A Man for all Seasons  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:20:07am

I don't think Mitt is conceding anything. They are just probably retooling for the next media blitz.
I have a question about ads running in different States..
We get Obama Ads from the DNC here in Oklahoma every so often.
Who the Hell in the Dem camp thinks Obama will win in Oklahoma?
Send those Ads to the battleground States.

25 ShaunP  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:20:38am

Not surprising; they need to avoid the Clinton smack-down at all costs. That speech was mah-velous...

26 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:20:43am

re: #20 Sionainn

But I thought Romney and company had beaucoup bucks to spend on advertising?

//

Obama's spent more so far, but Romney has outraised him over the last couple of months. Estimates I've seen indicate Romney has considerably more cash on hand than Obama...not surprising given that the RNC wasn't allowed to spend money until they had a nominee.

Where he chooses to spend that money is going to be very interesting.

27 darthstar  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:22:40am

The road to 190 electoral votes!

Seriously, in a 'close' election, dropping 36 electoral votes out of the 150 available in the "battleground states" isn't exactly a path to the Presidency...but I said months ago, long before Romney won the nomination, that he never really wanted to become president. He just wants the glory of running.

28 Bulworth  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:24:18am

re: #4 Kragar

CWA: If Sandra Fluke Just Spent Less on Beer, She Could Afford Her Own Birth Control

The Concerned Women of Amercia are sure concerned. Sandra musta done good.

29 blueraven  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:24:36am

re: #19 HappyWarrior

It's tough because really outside of Indiana, there are really no states that look for sure to turn back from Obama to the Republican column. I'm not suggesting that Indiana will be the only one that does bear in mind but I am suggesting that that's a troubling fact to them. Oh, and well Romney is certainly eager to win this state back, Obama's been winning the tv war as far as I'm concerned and he unlike Mitt seems to be going out of his comfort zone.

North Carolina will be very tough I think.

30 Sionainn  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:24:37am

re: #24 Digital Display

I don't think Mitt is conceding anything. They are just probably retooling for the next media blitz.
I have a question about ads running in different States..
We get Obama Ads from the DNC here in Oklahoma every so often.
Who the Hell in the Dem camp thinks Obama will win in Oklahoma?
Send those Ads to the battleground States.

I think it sends a bad message as a candidate to give up on states because it looks like they don't give a damn about the people in that state simply because they think they can't "win" there. It's writing off a whole lot of people and is in bad form for anyone who wants to be president of the UNITED states.

31 allegro  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:26:00am

re: #27 darthstar

The road to 190 electoral votes!

Seriously, in a 'close' election, dropping 36 electoral votes out of the 150 available in the "battleground states" isn't exactly a path to the Presidency...but I said months ago, long before Romney won the nomination, that he never really wanted to become president. He just wants the glory of running.

After watching the RNC last week I would agree. I think the Repubs have long known they don't have a prayer - they're just putting on a half-hearted show for the suckers their base, what's left of it. I think they're going for moving the Overton Window ever further as they can. That part is working quite well.

32 darthstar  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:26:27am
33 A Man for all Seasons  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:27:00am

re: #30 Sionainn

I think it sends a bad message as a candidate to give up on states because it looks like they don't give a damn about the people in that state simply because they think they can't "win" there. It's writing off a whole lot of people and is in bad form for anyone who wants to be president of the UNITED states.

Good Point...
I still see it as using resources well when you have only so much money.

34 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:27:08am

re: #29 blueraven

North Carolina will be very tough I think.

It will be though the two are still neck and neck there. For a state that Bush won by double digits both times, that's just not a good sign for Romney if they're neck and neck. I think that state could go either way but I'd give Romney a slight edge.

35 garhighway  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:27:26am

Romney made the right call. He's toast in PA and Mich. It will all come down to Ohio and FL, as it usually does.

He'll have a headwind in Ohio due to the GM/Chrysler issue and FL due to Ryan and Medicare. But he'll be wall-to-wall with ads from now to then.

36 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:27:43am

re: #31 allegro

After watching the RNC last week I would agree. I think the Repubs have long known they don't have a prayer - they're just putting on a half-hearted show for the suckers their base, what's left of it. I think they're going for moving the Overton Window ever further as they can. That part is working quite well.

I'm truly surprised by this attitude. The election is tied nationally (DNC bounce to be determined) and the President leads by less than 1% in Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Virginia. It would not take much of a swing to tip this election to Romney.

37 Sionainn  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:27:45am

re: #33 Digital Display

Good Point...
I still see it as using resources well when you have only so much money.

From what Fox crows about all the time, Romney has more than enough money not to leave a state out.

38 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:28:21am

re: #32 darthstar

[Embedded content]

Godless fundamentalists have a woman recite the prayer of St. Francis and ask the audience to pray for the president and his opponent. Fischer needs to stop buying drugs from Limbaugh. It's not good for his brain.

39 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:29:05am

re: #37 Sionainn

From what Fox crows about all the time, Romney has more than enough money not to leave a state out.

Pennsylvania's not winnable. Why spend money there? I'm a bit surprised by Michigan and would expect him to still maintain presence there.

40 Decatur Deb  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:30:46am

re: #36 The Mongoose

I'm truly surprised by this attitude. The election is tied nationally (DNC bounce to be determined) and the President leads by less than 1% in Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Virginia. It would not take much of a swing to tip this election to Romney.

Obama is hated and loved in all the right places.

(Personally think it's just retooling--but he should start with his staff.)

41 A Man for all Seasons  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:33:18am

re: #37 Sionainn

From what Fox crows about all the time, Romney has more than enough money not to leave a state out.

I was living in Indiana in 2007/2008 when it became a toss up. We got flooded with ads like crazy. After a million ads from everybody it really got old. The only exciting thing was when Obama stopped to give a speech at the High School Gym. Our town was a buzz for days afterwards..

42 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:35:34am

re: #40 Decatur Deb

Obama is hated and loved in all the right places.

(Personally think it's just retooling--but he should start with his staff.)

I hear you, but I think this election's going to come down to people who neither hate nor love the President or Gov. Romney. It's incredibly close and I'm just surprised to hear people dismissing Romney as having already lost when he's tied in the polls. He's been on a steady upward trend since mid-August. I suspect the DNC will put a stop to that, and I understand people holding the opinion that the President is likely to be re-elected. But I can't get treating this like it's in the bag.

43 Vicious Michigan Union Thug  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:36:55am

re: #39 The Mongoose

Pennsylvania's not winnable. Why spend money there? I'm a bit surprised by Michigan and would expect him to still maintain presence there.

Mitt totally fucked himself in Michigan with his "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" fail.

44 Sionainn  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:37:06am

re: #41 Digital Display

I was living in Indiana in 2007/2008 when it became a toss up. We got flooded with ads like crazy. After a million ads from everybody it really got old. The only exciting thing was when Obama stopped to give a speech at the High School Gym. Our town was a buzz for days afterwards..

Last election was the same thing for Nevada...first time anybody ever paid us any attention.

45 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:37:08am

re: #41 Digital Display

I was living in Indiana in 2007/2008 when it became a toss up. We got flooded with ads like crazy. After a million ads from everybody it really got old. The only exciting thing was when Obama stopped to give a speech at the High School Gym. Our town was a buzz for days afterwards..

I still can't believe he won Indiana but there's still a part of me that's still amazed he won my state too. Then again, I thought Kerry had a chance to do it in 2004. I was wrong but I also thought there was a chance given the right candidate and strategy a Democrat could turn Virginia blue. What Obama did here and I imagine what he did in Indiana too is that he focused on areas that were fairly close and he thought he had a chance to win. He went to my county, a county that not even Southern Dems like Carter, Clinton, or Gore could get and won big. Now part of it is that our demographics have changed to favor Democrats I won't lie but Obama actually did slightly better with white voters than Gore and Kerry too.

46 Decatur Deb  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:40:01am

re: #42 The Mongoose

I hear you, but I think this election's going to come down to people who neither hate nor love the President or Gov. Romney. It's incredibly close and I'm just surprised to hear people dismissing Romney as having already lost when he's tied in the polls. He's been on a steady upward trend since mid-August. I suspect the DNC will put a stop to that, and I understand people holding the opinion that the President is likely to be re-elected. But I can't get treating this like it's in the bag.

I've stated the position we Dems must take unti Nov 7: We're two points down in the 4th quarter. Florida is everything whether Romney shuts down elsewhere or not. (Our little GOTV trainer said "If they call Florida early, shut off the set and go party.")

47 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:41:30am

re: #46 Decatur Deb

I've stated the position we Dems must take unti Nov 7: We're two points down in the 4th quarter. Florida is everything whether Romney shuts down elsewhere or not. (Our little GOTV trainer said "If they call Florida early, shut off the set and go party.")

Can't argue with that. The President can win without Florida. Romney cannot. Same goes for Ohio, I suspect.

48 aagcobb  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:43:28am

re: #8 HappyWarrior

Spend less money on beer? What the fuck, CWA? Really I am getting sick of the lies about that woman. She was initially speaking on behalf of a friend until pigs like Rush decided to smear her.

Can we acknowledge the invaluable service Rush Limbaugh performed as the Mouth of Sauron the GOP by exposing the ugly misogyny which lives in the heart of the GOP?

49 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:49:18am

re: #48 aagcobb

Can we acknowledge the invaluable service Rush Limbaugh performed as the Mouth of Sauron the GOP by exposing the ugly misogyny which lives in the heart of the GOP?

Of course, still sucks that the poor woman had to be smeared by that dick to show it to more people though when this is the man who's been comparing feminists to Nazis since I was in grade school.

50 aagcobb  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:50:03am

re: #26 The Mongoose

Obama's spent more so far, but Romney has outraised him over the last couple of months. Estimates I've seen indicate Romney has considerably more cash on hand than Obama...not surprising given that the RNC wasn't allowed to spend money until they had a nominee.

Where he chooses to spend that money is going to be very interesting.

I predict, in no particular order, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, N.C. and Florida. Maybe New Hampshire and Nevada.

51 Sol Berdinowitz  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:50:51am

re: #11 Amory Blaine

I hope the fire shown at the DNC starts to spread.

Arsonist!

52 MikeTheModerateDemocrat  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:50:52am

So if they concede PA and MI, by my completely unscientific calculation, aren't they really saying Ohio or bust?

53 aagcobb  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:50:58am

re: #49 HappyWarrior

Of course, still sucks that the poor woman had to be smeared by that dick to show it to more people though when this is the man who's been comparing feminists to Nazis since I was in grade school.

I agree, though she should wear it as a badge of honor.

54 HappyWarrior  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:51:48am

re: #53 aagcobb

I agree, though she should wear it as a badge of honor.

She's been great. Tougher than I would be.

55 aagcobb  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:52:08am

re: #52 MikeTheModerateDemocrat

So if they concede PA and MI, by my completely unscientific calculation, aren't they really saying Ohio or bust?

Close. There are unlikey scenarios in which they can win without Ohio. Its fun to play with the electoral map at Realclearpolitics.

56 darthstar  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:52:26am

re: #43 Learned Mother of Zion

Mitt totally fucked himself in Michigan with his "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" fail.

And every other state where people rely on the auto industry and its feeder companies.

57 MikeTheModerateDemocrat  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:56:18am

re: #55 aagcobb

True but too many "ands" with the little states, i.e., you'd have to string most or all of them together AND get Florida, for the GOP to win w/o Ohio. As we learned in statistics class, every "and" reduces the probability.

58 garhighway  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:57:23am

re: #36 The Mongoose

I'm truly surprised by this attitude. The election is tied nationally (DNC bounce to be determined) and the President leads by less than 1% in Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Virginia. It would not take much of a swing to tip this election to Romney.

The national popular vote is meaningless. This is 50 individual elections, and only about a dozen and a half matter.

59 MikeTheModerateDemocrat  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 10:59:43am

re: #58 garhighway

The national popular vote is meaningless. This is 50 individual elections, and only about a dozen and a half matter.

Bingo. Who gives a rat's behind if Romney wins 80% of the votes in Oklahoma or Utah? Or 68% in Texas? (all of which in turn skews the "national popular vote") I never thought I would live to see the day where the electoral college favored dems, but by gosh I think it's happened.

60 The Mongoose  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 1:42:40pm

re: #59 MikeTheModerateDemocrat

Bingo. Who gives a rat's behind if Romney wins 80% of the votes in Oklahoma or Utah? Or 68% in Texas? (all of which in turn skews the "national popular vote") I never thought I would live to see the day where the electoral college favored dems, but by gosh I think it's happened.

The odds of winning the popular vote and losing the EC are very slim. It's happened once since 1888. Movements in the national number will be mirrored in the swing states. To win the election but lose the popular vote, the election basically has to be within half a point. If Romney wins the popular vote by 1%, there's about a 95% chance he will win the election....just as Al Gore would have.

61 MikeTheModerateDemocrat  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 1:55:45pm

re: #60 The Mongoose

I think garhighway's point and mine was that a "close" popular vote poll, esp. with only the chalenger's convention completed, should only raise so much concern. Of course if Romney wins the popular vote by 1% he will most likely win the election. It's just that the national polling average doesn't reflect this either as the current reality or the trend. Rather it reflects the "close" popular vote in general. Around this point in time in the 1984 and 1980 elections, the national popular vote was similarly close. In fact, arguably, Mondale and Carter respectively did a smidge better against Reagan than Romney is doing now. However, in those other two cases, the reality of the electoral college allowed Reagan to surge ahead. By selling their soul to the devil in exchange for California, the GOP gave up much of their electoral college edge. The Clinton and Obama moderation that successfully picked off a southwest and midwest state here and there further tilted the electoral college in their favor.

62 Patricia Kayden  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 2:00:27pm

re: #20 Sionainn

But I thought Romney and company had beaucoup bucks to spend on advertising?

//

Unfortunately for Mittens, spending lots of $$$ is just not enough when no one likes you. His unfavorable ratings are still high after he was "introduced" to us at last week's convention. I thought Ann's speech was supposed to humanize him, but that doesn't appear to have happened.
I feel sorry for the Republicans because he was the best of their presidential candidates. And that's saying a lot.

63 MikeTheModerateDemocrat  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 2:06:10pm

The republicans also really stink at producing positive ads because they've been so out of practice after falling in love with the Rove / Atwater method of nut punching. So a "strategy" of spending lots of extra $$$ on either negative ads or really ineffective positive ones , in Willard's case, are likely to do nothing except have a boomerang effect. The power of "noise" works great on Sunday morning talk shows and Fox News opinion shows. It doesn't work as well with commercials, at least not as well as it did 20 years ago.

re: #62 Patricia Kayden

Unfortunately for Mittens, spending lots of $$$ is just not enough when no one likes you. His unfavorable ratings are still high after he was "introduced" to us at last week's convention. I thought Ann's speech was supposed to humanize him, but that doesn't appear to have happened.
I feel sorry for the Republicans because he was the best of their presidential candidates. And that's saying a lot.

64 CarolJ  Thu, Sep 6, 2012 3:10:05pm

Obama has had a killer ground game for months. He's been canvassing since last year, and training organizers just as long.

In addition, I'm beginning to think that ads on tv aren't as effective as they used to be. Between the net, multiple channels, and DVRs, a lot of people just aren't getting them any more, and the dwindling number who only rely on broadcast tv already votes Republican. But try telling a billionaire that (or maybe you don't, spend on crappy ads and pocket the rest).


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