New Pew Poll: Obama Ahead With Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues

Flop sweat time for the Romney campaign
Politics • Views: 26,726

The new Pew Research survey is really terrific news for Barack Obama. For Mitt Romney, not so much: Obama Ahead With Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues.

Check out these numbers!

At this stage in the campaign, Barack Obama is in a strong position compared with past victorious presidential candidates. With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.

Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival’s, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney’s backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama’s. Roughly half of Romney’s supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, candidates lacking mostly positive backing have lost in November.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted September 12-16, 2012 among 3,019 adults including 2,424 registered voters, finds that Obama continues to be the more likable candidate by a substantial margin; his favorability rating has risen to 55% from 50% in late July, with 42% now expressing an unfavorable view of him.

Romney’s favorability also has risen, from 37% in July to 45% currently. But more (50%) continue to view Romney unfavorably. No previous presidential candidate has been viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point in a presidential campaign in Pew Research or Gallup September surveys going back to 1988.

Also see
Poll: Obama Opens Up Big 14-Point Lead in Wisconsin NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Leads Romney Nationally by 5 Points

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199 comments
1 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:04:59pm

And this was done before the 47% got out. Looks like Fall has two meanings for Mitt this year.

2 Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:05:10pm

I have to see it backed up by more polls but a lot of them coming out today seem to be pointing in the same direction. the best one out of WI has Obama up 14.

3 Four More Tears  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:05:15pm

I want to have a word with the 34% who think Romney takes consistent positions on issues.

4 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:06:05pm

The poll's numbers are flawed! It's methods are flawed! It's using '08 numbers when '10 are the ones that matter! The questions were too leading! The questions were too vague! This is nothing but a distration!!!

5 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:07:07pm

re: #3 Mocking Jay

I want to have a word with the 34% who think Romney takes consistent positions on issues.

Forget that, how about the 23% who think Mitt connects well with ordinary Americans.

6 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:07:17pm

A spokesman for the Romney Campaign made the following statement:

Youtube Video
7 Four More Tears  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:07:30pm

re: #5 HappyWarrior

Forget that, how about the 23% who think Mitt connects well with ordinary Americans.

Maybe those 23% aren't ordinary Americans?

8 Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:07:38pm

While waiting in line at the drive thru for El Pollo Loco I saw an anti Obama bumper sticker on the car in front of me that said "Worse Than Carter" had to laugh my ass off.

9 wrenchwench  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:07:56pm

If only Gene Eric Republican had accepted the nomination of his party...

10 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:08:25pm

re: #3 Mocking Jay

And the folks about the deficit.

11 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:08:43pm
12 Four More Tears  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:09:17pm

re: #10 Kragar

And the folks about the deficit.

I fully expect the Romney campaign to see these results and conclude that they should talk about nothing but the deficit from now until November 6th.

13 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:09:59pm

This poll has a D/R/I of 37/28/31. Pew should be embarrassed. I agree President Obama is ahead but this sort of ridiculous skew serves only to humiliate pollsters who inexplicably choose to ignore it.

Three other polls released today have the race within 1 point. 2008, the best cycle Democrats have ever seen, was D+7. 2010 was even. I can see this election going D+4 at the high edge, but D+9? Come on.

14 Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:10:14pm

If this keeps up look for Romney to have a Michael Richards moment.

15 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:10:46pm

A good Twitter account to follow for breaking news on polls: @pollreport

16 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:11:25pm

Man, look how badly Romney does as a strong leader.

I think that's appropriate, since he's showed zero leadership, but damn.

17 Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:11:44pm

CQ Roll Call guy: Electorate it pretty much locked in and polarized

MSNBC: So basically with these polls showing that Obama is in the lead it's a done deal right?

CQ Roll Call guy: Oh no, not at all.

*facepalm*

18 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:12:05pm

re: #15 Charles Johnson

A good Twitter account to follow for breaking news on polls: @pollreport

Thanks for that. They had some good news about our Senate race here in Virginia.

19 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:12:31pm
20 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:13:09pm

re: #13 The Mongoose

This poll has a D/R/I of 37/28/31. Pew should be embarrassed.

Uh, no. Pew Research has some of the best polling methodologies in the business. See: [Link: www.people-press.org...]

21 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:13:19pm

Poll: Obama Surges In Wisconsin, Leads Romney By 14

22 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:13:20pm

Yeah, Romney's really stepped in shit there. Not only do I think will he need to perform well at the debates but he needs Obama to do poorly. I can see one of the two happening but not both.

23 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:14:06pm

Yet, the reason the election is as close as it (at least according to the general polls on Obama v. Romney) is comes down to the last two issues:

Improving the job situation gives a +1 to Obama, while Romney is +3 on reducing the deficit.

With the economy in the doldrums, that's Romney's best and seemingly only path to win in November. With the economy seeming to pick up - unemployment rates are better than they were at the depths of the recession but not great, housing is much better than it has been, and Wall Street is seeing highs not visited since before the recession and many companies are reaping record profits, Romney's going to have a harder time on saying his path for the economy and nation is the one to take, when the economy is improving with the current Administration.

24 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:15:17pm

re: #23 lawhawk

Yet, the reason the election is as close as it (at least according to the general polls on Obama v. Romney) is comes down to the last two issues:

Improving the job situation gives a +1 to Obama, while Romney is +3 on reducing the deficit.

With the economy in the doldrums, that's Romney's best and seemingly only path to win in November. With the economy seeming to pick up - unemployment rates are better than they were at the depths of the recession but not great, housing is much better than it has been, and Wall Street is seeing highs not visited since before the recession and many companies are reaping record profits, Romney's going to have a harder time on saying his path for the economy and nation is the one to take, when the economy is improving with the current Administration.

The main problem there being that Team Mitt seems clinically incapable of shutting up and sticking with the economy.

25 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:15:38pm

re: #16 Obdicut

Man, look how badly Romney does as a strong leader.

I think that's appropriate, since he's showed zero leadership, but damn.

That is what I worry about most if he should still manage to pull off this election: he will simply hand the reigns of government to Paul Ryan & Grover Norquist on economic matters, John Bolton on foreign policy and and the Family Advocacy Counsel on social issues...

26 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:16:02pm

re: #13 The Mongoose

Where are you getting those numbers from?

Image: 9-19-12-381.png

27 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:16:29pm

Interesting. With white voters making over 100 grand a year? Obama's support is....

Wait for it...

47 percent.

28 DisturbedEma  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:17:08pm

re: #21 Kragar

I do not think Ryan helped this ticket. . .just saying as a WI resident, if you were trying to shore up support here, picking him was not wise. . .

29 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:17:25pm

re: #27 Gus

Interesting. With white voters making over 100 grand a year? Obama's support is....

Wait for it...

47 percent.

Image: 9-19-12-9.png

30 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:18:05pm

re: #28 DisturbedEma

I do not think Ryan helped this ticket. . .just saying as a WI resident, if you were trying to shore up support here, picking him was not wise. . .

Nor was it wise for Florida...

31 DisturbedEma  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:18:14pm

re: #25 47 turn it up to 11

And Ryan, in watching the Walker tactics, will run with it until made to stop. . .

32 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:18:14pm

re: #27 Gus

Interesting. With white voters making over 100 grand a year? Obama's support is....

Wait for it...

47 percent.

Victims the whole lot of them. But those numbers don't surprise me. Obama's probably been the most popular Democratic president with the wealthier classes in a while. That's part of why Romney's attack on Obama voters was so stupid and nonsensical.

33 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:18:35pm

The full Pew poll topline - [Link: www.people-press.org...]

The full report is here - [Link: www.people-press.org...]

Pew isn't going to throw away its reputation by oversampling and skewing an individual poll. As it stands, there are a few things that work in Romney's favor, including that he's closed the enthusiasm gap within his own party to a great degree, although he's still lagging Obama's support from within the Democratic party.

34 wrenchwench  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:19:05pm

re: #27 Gus

Interesting. With white voters making over 100 grand a year? Obama's support is....

Wait for it...

47 percent.

That's the stupid part of Republicans only hanging out with other Republicans (as Romney said in the MJ vid). They remain deluded about who thinks what.

35 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:19:21pm

re: #3 Mocking Jay

I want to have a word with the 34% who think Romney takes consistent positions on issues.

It's the 27% batshit crazy who are living in Wingnut land.

36 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:19:40pm

re: #33 lawhawk

The full Pew poll topline - [Link: www.people-press.org...]

Complete Report
Topline Questionnaire
Detailed Tables

37 DisturbedEma  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:19:44pm

re: #30 47 turn it up to 11

Indeed- it's hard to imagine a worse choice for that state

38 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:19:50pm

Nope. Sorry. Not What You Said.

The Romney campaign is now pushing the line that his infamous fundraiser comments were pointed at the growth of government under President Obama and the evils of dependency. He’s even saying now that his comments help clarify his position and sharpen the ideological debate.

Of course, this is not what he said.

What made Romney’s comments damaging was that they weren’t really aimed at critiquing government at all, something conservative politicians have long done and with great effect. His comments were directed at people. Half the population whom Romney characterized as shiftless and entitled freeloaders.

39 Four More Tears  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:20:10pm
40 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:20:18pm

People Press! Why dems are communists!

//

41 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:20:37pm

re: #39 Mocking Jay

[Embedded content]

Uh oh. There's that number again.

42 Lidane  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:21:17pm

re: #29 Gus

Image: 9-19-12-9.png

Interesting that Romney has more support among lower income whites. The same lower income whites that are in his 47% of lazy, shiftless losers who won't take personal responsibility for their lives.

43 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:21:33pm

re: #36 Gus

I went back to edit and extend my comments, but yes - the full report is chock full of interesting details

44 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:21:33pm

re: #33 lawhawk

This is amazingly bad news for Romney. They've got to be starting to panic now.

But what can they do? I don't think he can get any more out of pandering to the extreme right -- they're already committed. And he's burned his bridges with African Americans and Latinos, big time.

Money Boo Boo is in deep doo doo.

45 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:21:35pm

re: #20 Charles Johnson

Hi Charles,

Pew's previous accuracy is part of what has me so flabbergasted at the horrific skew in this poll. I'm combing through the entire poll (your link appears to be the HTML version of the PDF I'm reading) and I see nothing to indicate that they've normalized for the D/R/I being so far off. Correct me if I'm wrong but they're showing D+9 among registered voters and D+7 among likely.

Gallup, Rasmussen, and AP/GfK all have this within one point. SurveyUSA has Obama up 3. Pew is wrong.

46 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:21:53pm

re: #3 Mocking Jay

I want to have a word with the 34% who think Romney takes consistent positions on issues.

He is consistent in keeping a flexible position on all issues. He's the Omnibot.

47 Blizard  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:21:59pm

But, but...redistribution!!!

//

Love seeing Kristol and Brown being called RINOs. Shit is breaking apart at the seams.

48 Lidane  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:23:25pm
49 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:24:15pm

re: #26 Obdicut

Hi Obdicut,

I'm getting them from the weighted sample in Pew's PDF of the entire poll, found here: [Link: www.people-press.org...]

I may be misinterpreting something, let me know if you find what I'm doing wrong. I'm using page 76 and the DRI breakdown for Registered voters.

50 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:24:31pm

re: #44 Charles Johnson

This is amazingly bad news for Romney. They've got to be starting to panic now.

But what can they do? I don't think he can get any more out of pandering to the extreme right -- they're already committed. And he's burned his bridges with African Americans and Latinos, big time.

Money Boo Boo is in deep doo doo.

And even the extreme right doesn't trust him. This is the problem with the current GOP. If they pander to the right to get to the nomination, the right will desert them if they try to tack to the middle in the General.

51 Four More Tears  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:24:39pm
52 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:24:47pm

Luckily, Mitt has great uniters like Pat Buchanan on his side.

Pat Buchanan: Obama is a ‘drug dealer of welfare’

Conservative author Pat Buchanan on Tuesday blasted President Barack Obama as a “drug dealer of welfare” and praised Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney for starting a “great debate” with his comments about the 47 percent of Americans who he said were “dependent” on government services.

“This is what this campaign should be about,” Buchanan told Fox News host Greta Van Susteren. “You have in the United States of American something approaching half of the American people now who pay no income taxes and half of the American people who strictly get benefits from government.”

Buchanan advised Romney to not write off all of the 47 percent of voters — like some veterans — who pay no income taxes, “but there are other folks, clearly, that are getting all these benefits that really just live off the benefits and aren’t trying.”

The former MSNBC contributor pointed to the rising use of a “narcotic” like food stamps to show that President Barack Obama had failed to prove that government could be effective.

53 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:25:21pm

re: #38 Kragar

Nope. Sorry. Not What You Said.

Romney campaign quotes Romney out of context. What's good for treating Obama quotes is equally good for their own candidate's quotes. There's your consistency!

54 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:25:53pm

re: #52 Kragar

Luckily, Mitt has great uniters like Pat Buchanan on his side.

Pat Buchanan: Obama is a ‘drug dealer of welfare’

Welfare = nCLANG!

55 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:27:10pm

re: #45 The Mongoose

Hi Charles,

Pew's previous accuracy is part of what has me so flabbergasted at the horrific skew in this poll. I'm combing through the entire poll (your link appears to be the HTML version of the PDF I'm reading) and I see nothing to indicate that they've normalized for the D/R/I being so far off. Correct me if I'm wrong but they're showing D+9 among registered voters and D+7 among likely.

Gallup, Rasmussen, and AP/GfK all have this within one point. SurveyUSA has Obama up 3. Pew is wrong.

I'm not sure you really understand this polling thing.

FIrst of all, the numbers you put up for the D/R/I divide don't add up. They consistently have more I than D. Can you please cite where you're getting your number from?

Second of all, if this is the result that Pew got, than this is the result they got. It would be 'wrong' for them to adjust the polls because it's an outlier. If you can point to a problem in their methodology, that's fine-- and there is definitely a big discrepancy between R and D affiliation shown in this poll-- but to say the poll is wrong because of its results is to not understand what a poll is. A poll isn't right or wrong, a poll is a collection of data from questions people have answered.

56 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:27:36pm

re: #51 Mocking Jay

[Embedded content]

I hope he's discussing a deal with the pirate that will lower the costs of rum. Arrr!

57 wrenchwench  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:29:05pm

The one tax graph you really need to know

At the heart of the debate over “the 47 percent” is an awful abuse of tax data.

This entire conversation is the result of a (largely successful) effort to redefine the debate over taxes from “how much in taxes do you pay” to “how much in federal income taxes do you pay?” This is good framing if you want to cut taxes on the rich. It’s bad framing if you want to have even a basic understanding of who pays how much in taxes.

There’s a reason some would prefer that more limited conversation. For most Americans, payroll and state and local taxes make up the majority of their tax bill. The federal income tax, by contrast, is our most progressive tax — it’s the tax we’ve designed to place the heaviest burden on the rich while bypassing the poor. And we’ve done that, again, because the working class is already paying a fairly high tax bill through payroll and state and local taxes.

[...]

58 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:29:25pm

re: #56 HappyWarrior

I hope he's discussing a deal with the pirate that will lower the costs of rum. Arrr!

I had an uncle who was a pirate. He had two wooden legs. Then they caught fire and he burned to the ground.

59 Blizard  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:30:04pm

re: #56 HappyWarrior


Ayyy!

Well, it IS talk like a pirate day. Now wheers me grog? Arrgghh!!

60 Political Atheist  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:30:09pm

Just imagine what these numbers would look like if the economy were better, and Mitt had released his taxes.

61 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:31:00pm

re: #55 Obdicut

I worked in this area for 3 years. I understand it pretty well. you can check the link I provided showing the 37/28/31 number on page 76. Granted that's for registered voters, and the Likely voter skew is less. It's still way too high.

And it's a little odd to say I don't understand the polling thing when this is clearly the rogue poll out of the five released in the past 2 days (Obama: -1, +1, +1, +3, +8). Why would anyone jump on the +8?

62 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:31:05pm

re: #58 Mr. Crankypants

I had an uncle who was a pirate. He had two wooden legs. Then they caught fire and he burned to the ground.

He also had a hook arm and one eye. He lost the eye when a seagull pooped in his eye and he forgot he had a hook arm.

63 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:32:01pm

re: #45 The Mongoose

Pew's trending doesn't look good for Romney, but there's much more that is troubling even when taking into account the D/R/I apportionment.

Take independents, which are a critical constituency to win in November. Based on I views, Romney has done well to bring the favorable/unfavorable view to a virtual draw (46/47) when he was 28/52 in March 2012. He's got to do better than that in November though, the next poll may indicate whether he's topped out or whether they're breaking for Romney. If the best he can do is manage a split, then Obama's advantage on enthusiasm among Democrats will likely carry the day. Romney needs to win among independents to win in November.

According to Pew, swing voters, however, seem to have broken towards Obama at this point.

But the best way to look at the Pew poll is to compare it to its prior polling. Look at the trends. It may be an outlier in this particular polling round, but RCP and Nate Silver are also both indicating that the polling is all over the place at this point.

64 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:32:20pm

Pirate on wheel of fortune...I'd like to buy an ARRRRRRRR!

65 Political Atheist  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:33:03pm

I know a guy on a homeowners gated community board. He just said to me he would not vote Romney for Resident, let alone President. Cracked me up.

66 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:33:11pm

re: #49 The Mongoose

And that number seems consistent back through their polling to the beginning of the year. And it's different from the number that Rasmussen gives. I'm not sure why that automatically means Pew is 'wrong'. There may be something in their methodology that accounts for this difference, but I'm not sure if you understand that party identification is one of the questions being asked and answered-- they didn't call people to seek out the 'appropriate' mix. This is the results that they are reporting.

67 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:33:37pm

What's a pirate's favorite fast food restaurant?

68 TedStriker  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:33:54pm

re: #67 Kragar

What's a pirate's favorite fast food restaurant?

Arrrr-by's

69 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:33:58pm

re: #67 Kragar

What's a pirate's favorite fast food restaurant?

Harrrrrrrrrrrrrrdeees?

70 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:34:12pm

re: #61 The Mongoose

Because you don't seem to understand that that party affiliation is one of the things that's being reported on in the poll, and you're calling it 'wrong'. A poll can't be wrong. The poll can be an outlier. Is that what you mean?

71 blueraven  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:34:21pm

re: #61 The Mongoose

I worked in this area for 3 years. I understand it pretty well. you can check the link I provided showing the 37/28/31 number on page 76. Granted that's for registered voters, and the Likely voter skew is less. It's still way too high.

And it's a little odd to say I don't understand the polling thing when this is clearly the rogue poll out of the five released in the past 2 days (Obama: -1, +1, +1, +3, +8). Why would anyone jump on the +8?

Did you not include NBC/WSJ? Obama +5

72 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:34:49pm

re: #68 Gert Fröbe

Arrrr-by's

re: #69 HappyWarrior

Harrrrrrrrrrrrrrdeees?

WRONG!

It's Long John Silvers.

73 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:34:53pm

re: #67 Kragar

What's a pirate's favorite fast food restaurant?

The answers explain the decline in pirate numbers in the 20th century.

74 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:35:25pm

re: #69 HappyWarrior

Harrrrrrrrrrrrrrdeees?

She was only a pirates daughter but she shivered my timber after I boarded her.

75 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:35:41pm

re: #71 blueraven

Because it was released 3 days ago (I think)...I had the last few polls in front of me, but it's fair to include it.

76 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:35:55pm

re: #74 Mr. Crankypants

She was only a pirates daughter but she shivered my timber after I boarded her.

did you abscond with her gold and booties?

77 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:36:07pm

re: #49 The Mongoose

The figures on page 76 confirm that the D/R/I splits have been pretty consistent over time, so it's a good indicator when comparing one Pew poll to another Pew poll. That kind of internal consistency is good. It's what you want to see. When they go all over the map, that indicates that the pollsters aren't confident in their sampling and methodologies.

That makes trying to discern trends from the Pew data even stronger.

Now, you can compare methodologies between what Pew has done and what Rassmussen or NYT or CBS or Quinnipiac have done and found that Pew is undersampling or oversampling one group or another, but Pew has been consistent in its methodologies across time.

78 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:36:23pm

re: #72 Kragar

re: #69 HappyWarrior

WRONG!

It's Long John Silvers.

AT one time LJS was pretty good, it's gone down hill to the point that the only time I eat it is when I want the fat malabsorption to take care of my constipation.

79 kirkspencer  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:36:25pm

re: #17 Brother Holy Cruise Missile of Mild Acceptance

CQ Roll Call guy: Electorate it pretty much locked in and polarized

MSNBC: So basically with these polls showing that Obama is in the lead it's a done deal right?

CQ Roll Call guy: Oh no, not at all.

*facepalm*

To be fair, many of them are trying to avoid being the Chicago Trib Redux (Dewey Defeats Truman).

80 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:36:33pm

re: #74 Mr. Crankypants

She was only a pirates daughter but she shivered my timber after I boarded her.

Ay, Ay!

81 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:36:54pm

re: #76 47 turn it up to 11

did you abscond with her gold and booties?

it was a booty call, yes.

82 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:37:24pm

AVAST MATEYS! It be Captain Brownbeard of the Pirate Ship Jolly Rodgering, coming up along side ye to swab yer poopdeck!

83 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:37:49pm

re: #72 Kragar

re: #69 HappyWarrior

WRONG!

It's Long John Silvers.

Ha, you know I haven't been to or seen one of those in years. Not the best food but I liked the concept. Love burgers and fries but sometimes seafood on the quick and easy works.

84 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:38:27pm

Long ago, when sailing ships ruled the waves, a captain and his crew were in danger of being boarded by a pirate ship. As the crew became frantic, the captain bellowed to his First Mate, "Bring me my red shirt!". The First Mate quickly retrieved the captain's red shirt, which the captain put on and lead the crew to battle the pirate boarding party. Although some casualties occurred among the crew, the pirates were repelled.

Later that day, the lookout screamed that there were two pirate vessels sending boarding parties. The crew cowered in fear, but the captain calm as ever bellowed, "Bring me my red shirt!". The battle was on, and once again the Captain and his crew repelled both boarding parties, although this time more casualties occurred.

Weary from the battles, the men sat around on deck that night recounting the day's occurrences when an ensign looked to the Captain and asked, "Sir, why did you call for your red shirt before the battle?". The Captain, giving the ensign a look that only a captain can give, exhorted, "If I am wounded in battle, the red shirt does not show the wound and thus, you men will continue to fight unafraid". The men sat in silence marveling at the courage of such a man.

As dawn came the next morning, the lookout screamed that there were pirate ships, 10 of them, all with boarding parties on their way. The men became silent and looked to their Captain for his usual command. The Captain, calm as ever, bellowed, "Bring me my brown pants!!

85 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:38:27pm

Me problem is when I try to talk like a pirate, I end up sounding like I belong in a Dublin pub.

86 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:38:38pm

re: #70 Obdicut

I do understand that. The DRI in this poll is an indication that there was a non-random bias in this particular poll. When I say it's wrong, I mean it's not taking an accurate random snapshot of the electorate. This may have just been the 1 time in 20 (assuming 95% confidence intervals) but in my experience it's more likely to be because there was an undetected systemic bias in the "random" sampling methodology, or the weighting.

Of course none of this is to say the President won't win by 8...just that there is mathematical reason to have fairly high confidence his margin of victory would be outside the MOE of this Pew poll if the election were held today.

87 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:38:54pm

What's a horny pirate's worst nightmare?
A sunken chest with no booty!

88 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:40:11pm

What is.. I don't even...

Sandy Rios: Bush Gave Us Middle East 'Peace for Ten Years'

American Family Association radio host and Fox News contributor Sandy Rios spoke today with William Murray of the Religious Freedom Coalition and blamed the current turmoil in the Middle East on both Islam and the Obama administration. Rios blasted Obama supporters for claiming that George W. Bush left him an economic crisis while refusing to admit that Bush “left them peace, he left them peace for ten years,” and now “we are reaping the bitter fruits of chaos not only in the Middle East but in the world at large because we have not been dealing with them with strength” like Bush did.

Rios: The problem with Islam, and we know this Bill, I would like to say, in fact I was going to write this article and I’ll just spill the beans on the air and that is they keep talking about what George Bush left this president and they’re talking about the horrible economy and what a mess he left and they haven’t been able to even turn it around in four years because it’s horrendous. But I’ll tell you what else he left them; he left them peace, he left them peace for ten years. And now that’s going ragged because we have been operating under Obama’s policies for the last four years and we are reaping the bitter fruits of chaos not only in the Middle East but in the world at large because we have not been dealing with them with strength.

Sure, we were fighting 2 wars, with numerous special operations across the whole region, but it was peaceful.

GAAAAAH!

89 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:40:26pm

The Captain's Wifes Lament

Youtube Video
90 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:40:51pm

My guess is when Pew releases their final poll, it will be much more in line with the consensus. They came 2nd in accuracy last time out of 20-25 final polls, beaten only by Rasmussen.

91 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:40:53pm

re: #85 HappyWarrior

Me problem is when I try to talk like a pirate, I end up sounding like I belong in a Dublin pub.

I have a severe medical condition where the drunker I get, the more Scottish I sound.

92 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:41:17pm

re: #86 The Mongoose

I do understand that. The DRI in this poll is an indication that there was a non-random bias in this particular poll.

Do you understand their previous polls have found basically the same split?

When I say it's wrong, I mean it's not taking an accurate random snapshot of the electorate. This may have just been the 1 time in 20 (assuming 95% confidence intervals) but in my experience it's more likely to be because there was an undetected systemic bias in the "random" sampling methodology, or the weighting.

Then please demonstrate that, since they've laid their methedology out there for you to review.

Of course none of this is to say the President won't win by 8...just that there is mathematical reason to have fairly high confidence his margin of victory would be outside the MOE of this Pew poll if the election were held today.

I think so too. I think this poll is somewhat of an outlier. I don't get why you're trying to use words like 'wrong' and, especially, I don't get why you think that when doing a poll that includes a question about party affiliation, you think they should afterwards alter that number on party affiliation to reflect the 'true' number. I don't think you get that's one of the things being polled.

93 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:41:21pm

re: #88 Kragar

What is.. I don't even...

Sandy Rios: Bush Gave Us Middle East 'Peace for Ten Years'

Sure, we were fighting 2 wars, with numerous special operations across the whole region, but it was peaceful.

GAAAAAH!

There was peace for 10 years? That's why there were 7 attacks on US embassies, leaving 44 dead overall?

94 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:42:17pm

re: #91 Kragar

I have a severe medical condition where the drunker I get, the more Scottish I sound.

Ditto here except Irish not Scottish. I also become a much better singer.

95 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:42:39pm

re: #93 Targetpractice

There was peace for 10 years? That's why there were 7 attacks on US embassies, leaving 44 dead overall?

Those were peaceful attacks, not like the things going on now.

96 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:42:54pm

re: #95 Kragar

They were off-budget. /

97 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:02pm

re: #91 Kragar

I have a severe medical condition where the drunker I get, the more Scottish I sound.

och aye

98 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:06pm

re: #92 Obdicut

I don't think they should weight on DRI. I think they should look at it and wonder about their randomization. And I really do think they're way off and would look foolish if the vote were today. We'll never know for sure, of course.

99 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:25pm

re: #88 Kragar

What is.. I don't even...

Sandy Rios: Bush Gave Us Middle East 'Peace for Ten Years'

Sure, we were fighting 2 wars, with numerous special operations across the whole region, but it was peaceful.

GAAAAAH!

The Bush years were peaceful? I don't think Bush or any of his advisers would agree with that.

100 DisturbedEma  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:39pm

re: #52 Kragar

Relentless in the pursuit of the next asshat moment. . .

101 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:47pm

re: #94 HappyWarrior

Ditto here except Irish not Scottish. I also become a much better singer.

"Warning: consumption of this beverage may cause spontaneous "Braveheart" quotes to occur"

102 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:49pm

re: #94 HappyWarrior

Ditto here except Irish not Scottish. I also become a much better singer.

Karaoke does not count as "singing."

103 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:43:52pm

I would review Rasmussen's methodology like Mongoose is trying to do with Pew, if it weren't for the fact that Rasmussen makes you PAY to see the actual contents of his polls.

But yeah, let's tear into the one that airs it all out to the public. They must be the one doing some shady business.

104 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:44:07pm

Whiskey in the hand
and whiskey on the mind
soon you'll be mine.

105 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:44:28pm

re: #88 Kragar

What is.. I don't even...

Sandy Rios: Bush Gave Us Middle East 'Peace for Ten Years'

Sure, we were fighting 2 wars, with numerous special operations across the whole region, but it was peaceful.

GAAAAAH!

What he basically wanted to get across with that statement was "Obama sucks".

106 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:44:28pm

re: #102 Targetpractice

Karaoke does not count as "singing."

Haha indeed.

107 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:44:55pm

re: #104 HappyWarrior

Only as long as there's whiskey in a jar-o!

108 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:45:03pm

re: #101 Kragar

"Warning: consumption of this beverage may cause spontaneous "Braveheart" quotes to occur"

How does one yell "Freeedom!" and puke at the same time?

109 DisturbedEma  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:45:13pm

re: #88 Kragar

Whoa. . .just, but, wait. . .dafuq? Maybe if I hold my computer upside down. . .nope still wtf.

110 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:45:22pm

re: #107 lawhawk

Only as long as there's whiskey in a jar-o!

Whack for the daddy-o.

111 makeitstop  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:45:26pm

re: #88 Kragar

What is.. I don't even...

Sandy Rios: Bush Gave Us Middle East 'Peace for Ten Years'

Sure, we were fighting 2 wars, with numerous special operations across the whole region, but it was peaceful.

GAAAAAH!

Wow.

112 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:46:10pm

RealClearPolitics has shifted Wisconsin from "toss-up" status to "leans Obama," pushing his electoral count to 247.

This means Romney would basically have to win ALL remaining toss-up states to win this election.

113 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:46:48pm

re: #98 The Mongoose

I don't think they should weight on DRI. I think they should look at it and wonder about their randomization.

And I really do think they're way off and would look foolish if the vote were today. We'll never know for sure, of course.

Can you please answer what you think is wrong with their methodology? They have laid out their methodology openly for critique. Please demonstrate what you think is flawed about it.

Because saying that their results are wrong isn't helpful. If they did a poll and then refused to release the results and methods because they thought the numbers were wrong, that'd be unhelpful. They've released their numbers, and their methodology precisely so you can do an accurate criticism.

So please do so.

114 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:47:14pm

re: #55 Obdicut

I'm not sure you really understand this polling thing.

FIrst of all, the numbers you put up for the D/R/I divide don't add up. They consistently have more I than D. Can you please cite where you're getting your number from?

Second of all, if this is the result that Pew got, than this is the result they got. It would be 'wrong' for them to adjust the polls because it's an outlier. If you can point to a problem in their methodology, that's fine-- and there is definitely a big discrepancy between R and D affiliation shown in this poll-- but to say the poll is wrong because of its results is to not understand what a poll is. A poll isn't right or wrong, a poll is a collection of data from questions people have answered.

Image: 9b4amzhdkkshctmqbao9ew.gif

115 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:47:26pm

re: #103 JamesWI

Lots of them publicize the numbers. For example, the NBC poll (Obama +5) shows a D/R/I of 32/25/38 with 5% other or unsure. I would argue this is also highly unlikely and that the president is therefore most likely leading by less than 5 points.

116 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:47:26pm

Romney Tape Leaves Senate GOP Leaders Speechless

Senate Republican leaders fled their weekly press conference after delivering prepared remarks Wednesday without taking a single question from reporters eagerly seeking their thoughts on their presidential nominee’s newly unearthed remarks dismissing nearly half of American voters.

Although some of the leadership members addressed journalists in separate huddles as they walked away, the unusual display is symptomatic of the party’s nervousness over Romney’s comments from a private fundraiser deriding the 47 percent of Americans who pay no federal income taxes.

And good ole Harry Reid was there:

Before the GOP press conference, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid taunted them over their candidate’s troubles, telling reporters, “We have a long line of people who are running from Romney as if the Olympics are still on,

117 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:48:14pm

re: #116 Kragar

Romney Tape Leaves Senate GOP Leaders Speechless

And good ole Harry Reid was there:

Give'em hell, Harry!

118 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:48:20pm

re: #109 DisturbedEma

Whoa. . .just, but, wait. . .dafuq? Maybe if I hold my computer upside down. . .nope still wtf.

Youtube Video
119 HappyWarrior  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:48:34pm

re: #116 Kragar

Romney Tape Leaves Senate GOP Leaders Speechless

And good ole Harry Reid was there:

Well they know they can't spin it because it's really impossible to spin. Mitt's trying to by using a 1998 Obama clip.

120 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:48:40pm

re: #115 The Mongoose

Look at Gus's 114, please.

121 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:49:09pm

re: #115 The Mongoose

Lots of them publicize the numbers. For example, the NBC poll (Obama +5) shows a D/R/I of 32/25/38 with 5% other or unsure. I would argue this is also highly unlikely and that the president is therefore most likely leading by less than 5 points.

So any poll that shows there are more identifying Dems than Repubs immediately becomes invalid to you. Alrighty then.

122 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:49:21pm
123 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:50:43pm

re: #113 Obdicut

There is no way to know why they are getting an inaccurate picture of the electorate (by party registration) without knowing their randomization algorithms and precise weighting models. What we do know is that their output appears to be out of line with the current reality. This is supported by the fact that their poll is way outside the consensus Margin of Error.

In the end, we cannot know for sure. One can argue with a lot of evidence that turnout is highly unlikely to reflect a 7-point Democratic advantage.

124 Interesting Times  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:50:53pm

Oh dear. Buyer's Recall voters remorse? :)

125 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:51:10pm

re: #121 JamesWI

So any poll that shows there are more identifying Dems than Repubs immediately becomes invalid to you. Alrighty then.

IIRC, it was John Marshall who posted a short blurb last week, in response to rising arguments that polls showing Obama's lead building up were "inaccurate." The gist of it was "If you're relying upon arguing that every poll right now is running on inaccurate numbers, then you're in for a very long night on Election Day."

126 Tigger2  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:52:25pm

re: #122 Gus

[Embedded content]

Hell just spray paint over them. lol

127 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:53:05pm

re: #114 Gus

Image: 9b4amzhdkkshctmqbao9ew.gif

Thanks Gus. I think this is a wonderful example of my point. Gallup shows a registered voter split of D+4 (I agree with this based on present data from other pollsters). Pew shows D+9 among registered voters.

The difference between D+4 and D+9 is an entire election.

128 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:53:05pm

re: #123 The Mongoose

I'm sorry, but what algorithms are you referring to? You're somehow saying whatever pseudo-random number generator they're using has a skew towards Democrats? That's not possible.

In terms of weighing, the numbers are raw, there, so I have no idea what you're talking about. These are unweighed-- that was a point you made earlier.

And again, please look at Gus's 114. That is another major polling center: are you going to dismiss them as obviously wrong, too?

129 ReamWorks SKG  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:53:21pm

[Link: www.mercurynews.com...]

Here's how it works: Christians attack Muslims, Muslims attack Jews!

130 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:54:03pm

re: #127 The Mongoose

Do you understand that, in any given number of polls, you are always going to have outliers?

Do you actually propose that when a polling firm gets a result that's an outlier, that they did something wrong in order to get that result?

131 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:54:18pm
Youtube Video
132 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:54:56pm

re: #129 ReamWorks SKG

[Link: www.mercurynews.com...]

Here's how it works: Christians attack Muslims, Muslims attack Jews!

How about this algorithm: stupid, hateful people blow shit up.

133 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:55:03pm

re: #122 Gus

And Muslim doctors will read those signs on their way to treat Jewish patients at Sloane-Kettering. And vice versa.

134 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:55:23pm

re: #128 Obdicut

I'm sorry, but what algorithms are you referring to? You're somehow saying whatever pseudo-random number generator they're using has a skew towards Democrats? That's not possible.

In terms of weighing, the numbers are raw, there, so I have no idea what you're talking about. These are unweighed-- that was a point you made earlier.

And again, please look at Gus's 114. That is another major polling center: are you going to dismiss them as obviously wrong, too?

No, as I posted I think they're bang-on (I think we cross-posted). And just so we're clear I never said Pew was deliberately boosting the Democrat numbers...though I do think they're inflated, either by a systemic issue or the poll simply being the 1 in 20.

135 DisturbedEma  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:55:51pm

re: #118 Kragar

Ok, that makes more sense than Sandy. . .just saying

136 kirkspencer  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:57:26pm

DRI split for most of these is based on a series of polls that basically ask the public if they're D, R, or I. Perhaps you don't recall the furor a while back when the number of people claiming to be R went into decline (and the I increased, telling us where most of them went). In fact, Rasmussen is about the only (nominally) independent polling firm that has the Republican numbers the same as the Democratic -- and in fact Rasmussen says the R's are about 5% larger. (vicinity 35% to 30%).

137 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:57:49pm

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Leads Romney Nationally by 5 Points - First Read

There's a very clear trend in recent polling, and the trend is that Obama is taking the lead. When the next round of polls comes out, I predict we're going to see an even bigger gap, because it will reflect the effects of Romney's disastrous "47%" comments.

138 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:58:24pm

re: #136 kirkspencer

DRI split for most of these is based on a series of polls that basically ask the public if they're D, R, or I. Perhaps you don't recall the furor a while back when the number of people claiming to be R went into decline (and the I increased, telling us where most of them went). In fact, Rasmussen is about the only (nominally) independent polling firm that has the Republican numbers the same as the Democratic -- and in fact Rasmussen says the R's are about 5% larger. (vicinity 35% to 30%).

I'd be shocked to see Rasmussen at R+5. Do you have a link for that?

139 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:58:29pm

re: #137 Charles Johnson

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Leads Romney Nationally by 5 Points - First Read

There's a very clear trend in recent polling, and the trend is that Obama is taking the lead. When the next round of polls comes out, I predict we're going to see an even bigger gap, because it will reflect the effects of Romney's disastrous "47%" comments.

And the arguments that the poll results are "skewed" will just get louder.

140 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:58:29pm

re: #134 The Mongoose

So what is your problem, exactly? You say that Pew should be embarrassed. What should they be embarrassed by? What is the problem in their methodology? We can just ignore the whole 'it's their algorithms' thing, as that makes no sense in affecting partisan party identification, does it?

141 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 12:59:32pm

re: #134 The Mongoose

No, as I posted I think they're bang-on (I think we cross-posted). And just so we're clear I never said Pew was deliberately boosting the Democrat numbers...though I do think they're inflated, either by a systemic issue or the poll simply being the 1 in 20.

If you're really concerned about this and would like to know more about the reason for why this poll is weighted like it is, I suggest contacting Pew. I've corresponded with them before - they're very responsive to questions.

142 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:01:02pm

re: #128 Obdicut

Gallup and Pew are both coming to a similar conclusion about self-identified party affiliations in the same polling cycles. That's confirming that both are using similar methodologies to populate their polling.

The central argument against their D/R/I splits would be that they're both wrong on their methodologies. Perhaps one could argue that they're self-confirming - that the polls reinforce the notion of the D/R/I splits but the Pew and Gallup figures have a very good reputation.

Someone would have to compare their polling to those of the other major national polls - I don't have the time to do that. I think we'd find that they're largely in line with each other - and the Pew/Gallup figures.

143 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:01:14pm

In other news, tests on Zimmerman's gun show absolutely no trace of Trayvon Martin's DNA.

So.....how do you shoot someone who is supposedly right on top of you, beating you, and grabbing for your gun.......and get literally none of their DNA on you? Not even a tiny bit of blood spatter from a close range shot?

Hmm.......

144 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:03:34pm

re: #143 JamesWI

That could easily happen. DNA gathering and analysis is far from a perfect science. There's not a lot of blood spatter from an entry wound.

Caution should be exercised with forensics. When it's conclusive, it's cool, but mostly it can just indicate things with some probability.

145 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:03:37pm

re: #143 JamesWI

In other news, tests on Zimmerman's gun show absolutely no trace of Trayvon Martin's DNA.

So.....how do you shoot someone who is supposedly right on top of you, beating you, and grabbing for your gun.......and get literally none of their DNA on you? Not even a tiny bit of blood spatter from a close range shot?

Hmm.......

God's will?
///

147 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:03:52pm

re: #143 JamesWI

Clarification. No Martin DNA was found on the gun grip or on the gun holster. That doesn't eliminate the possibility of a struggle - where Martin went to grab the barrel of the gun after Zimmerman unholstered it, but it does undermine the struggle theory.

148 ReamWorks SKG  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:04:19pm

re: #143 JamesWI

What do you think this means?

149 Amory Blaine  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:04:48pm

Those number are going to be hard to turn around in 7 weeks.

150 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:05:05pm

re: #146 Gus

My great-granduncle actually did cut a guy's throat. And he was an immigrant from Iceland. So the man is speaking some truth.

He got acquitted, too, since the other guy had set fire to his house and then tried to harpoon him.

151 danarchy  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:05:05pm

re: #143 JamesWI

In other news, tests on Zimmerman's gun show absolutely no trace of Trayvon Martin's DNA.

So.....how do you shoot someone who is supposedly right on top of you, beating you, and grabbing for your gun.......and get literally none of their DNA on you? Not even a tiny bit of blood spatter from a close range shot?

Hmm.......

I am pretty sure that the forensics have already put the gunshot within a 1 foot range. This article just says that the only DNA on the grip was Zimmerman's. Basically they are saying Trayvon never grabbed the gun.

Forensic tests made public Wednesday show that George Zimmerman's was the only DNA that could be identified on the grip of the gun used to fatally shoot 17-year-old Trayvon Martin.

152 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:05:21pm

re: #148 ReamWorks SKG

What do you think this means?

I think the content of my comment makes it pretty clear what I think it means. That Zimmerman was not in a life-or-death struggle with someone who was looking to grab his gun and kill him.

153 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:05:31pm

re: #140 Obdicut

I am not privy to their methodology and it would take a long time to fully understand it even if I was. But here's where I'm coming from.

I can think of only 3 possibilities:

1) Obama is up 8, (+/-2.4%, the poll's MOE)
2) This was an outlier poll
3) Something is wrong with Pew's sample

I find #1 extremely unlikely given the average of 5 other polls is Obama +1.8.

#2 is exactly 5% likely.

I think it's more likely #3 than either of the others. I could be wrong. We can't know for sure.

154 ReamWorks SKG  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:05:45pm

re: #149 Amory Blaine

Those number are going to be hard to turn around in 7 weeks.

Oh crap! My taxes will go up!

//

155 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:05:46pm

OMG. This guy's a freaking nut.

156 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:06:17pm

re: #147 lawhawk

Clarification. No Martin DNA was found on the gun grip or on the gun holster. That doesn't eliminate the possibility of a struggle - where Martin went to grab the barrel of the gun after Zimmerman unholstered it, but it does undermine the struggle theory.

As I remember Zimmerman's version of events, Martin went for the gun, he never stated Martin got his hand on it. IIRC, he stated he used one hand to hold the hand Martin had gone for the gun with while he used the other to pull the gun and fire.

Note, I'm trying to remember something I read a couple months back.

157 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:06:34pm

re: #153 The Mongoose

I am not privy to their methodology and it would take a long time to fully understand it even if I was.

Do you not understand that they have laid out their methodology for you in the link? How can you not get that?

158 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:06:48pm

They're finding Korans and prayer rugs on the border!

159 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:07:02pm

re: #153 The Mongoose

I am not privy to their methodology and it would take a long time to fully understand it even if I was. But here's where I'm coming from.

I can think of only 3 possibilities:

1) Obama is up 8, (+/-2.4%, the poll's MOE)
2) This was an outlier poll
3) Something is wrong with Pew's sample

I find #1 extremely unlikely given the average of 5 other polls is Obama +1.8.

#2 is exactly 5% likely.

I think it's more likely #3 than either of the others. I could be wrong. We can't know for sure.

So it's gone from "PEW SHOULD BE EMBARRASSED AT THEIR HORRIBLE POLL" to ".....well, something doesn't look the way I think it should look, so I think something is wrong."

160 Amory Blaine  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:07:35pm

Cleopatra Jones is on Bounce.

161 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:07:57pm

If you paste the URL for a Media Matters video page into a comment, it automagically becomes an embedded video. Here's that crazy anti-immigrant freak:

Video
162 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:08:16pm

re: #153 The Mongoose

The outlier thing doesn't even really work, since they've found this consistent party identification number going back to the beginning of the year-- with occasional polls being 'outliers' in having the disparity shorten.

So really, you're alleging not just that this is a bad poll, but Pew's methodology has been wrong for the entire year.

163 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:08:29pm

re: #159 JamesWI

Knowing pollsters, I'm betting they are embarrassed. No one ever likes being this far outside the mathematical average.

164 Kragar  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:08:53pm

William Murray Blames Gay Diplomats for Turmoil in the Middle East

William Murray of the Religious Freedom Coalition not only told the American Family Association’s Sandy Rios that Islam is not a religion, but also that the U.S. fails to understand Muslims because our diplomats are homosexual elitists. Murray, who in 2009 maintained that gays cause train crashes, alleged that since Libya Ambassador Christopher Stevens “was probably a homosexual” and that “many of the diplomats” the State Department sends to the Middle East “are homosexuals,” they are unable to understand the violent nature of Islam since they only “deal with people on an elite level that aren’t really truly Muslims.” He argued that Muslims who don’t engage in violence are actually “apostates” and faithful Muslims are violent, lamenting that “we send nutcases over there who are dealing with apostate Muslims and then they report back” that Islam is a peaceful religion. Later, Murray said that unless the U.S. changes our views on Islam “there is no way we can survive...without tremendous losses.”

165 blueraven  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:09:31pm

re: #138 The Mongoose

I'd be shocked to see Rasmussen at R+5. Do you have a link for that?

How about this Pew poll from June...it has Obama up just 2

[Link: www.people-press.org...]

The D/R/I breakdown is about the same 33/24/39 (page 70)

166 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:09:46pm

BTW, Pew has a very thorough section on its methodologies.

And here's how they address party affiliation.

167 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:09:49pm

re: #163 The Mongoose

Knowing pollsters, I'm betting they are embarrassed. No one ever likes being this far outside the mathematical average.

And you think they've been embarrassed all year, since this is basically the same result they've gotten all year, but they just haven't gotten around to doing anything about it?

168 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:10:27pm

re: #163 The Mongoose

Knowing pollsters, I'm betting they are embarrassed. No one ever likes being this far outside the mathematical average.

Right now, they're about as far away from the "mathematical average" (which is around +3 for Obama) as Rasmussen (+1 for Romney)

So should Rasmussen be "embarrassed" as well?

169 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:10:31pm

re: #164 Kragar

William Murray Blames Gay Diplomats for Turmoil in the Middle East

"He argued that Muslims who don’t engage in violence are actually “apostates” and faithful Muslims are violent,"

In this respect, he agrees with every fundamentalist extremist Muslim mullah...

170 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:10:33pm

re: #161 Charles Johnson

If you paste the URL for a Media Matters video page into a comment, it automagically becomes an embedded video. Here's that crazy anti-immigrant freak:

[Embedded content]

Where did they find this nut? Freaking Fox News. They're getting worse. Hard to believe but they're getting worse.

171 Interesting Times  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:11:07pm
172 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:11:13pm

First results after the 47% comments are coming in now at Gallup - more bad news for Willard.

Voters' Reaction to Romney's '47%' Comments Tilts Negative

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans have a more negative than positive immediate reaction to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's comments, secretly caught on video, about the 47% of Americans whom he said are Obama supporters and dependent on the government. Thirty-six percent of voters say Romney's comments make them less likely to vote for him, while 20% say the remarks make them more likely to vote for him, and 43% say the comments won't make a difference.

173 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:11:37pm

Sen. McDreamy had to think about it, but he's decided to keep himself tied to the sinking ship...

Scott Brown Spokeswoman Tells TPM He Still Supports Mitt Romney

174 lawhawk  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:13:24pm

CNN/ORC poll finds President Obama holds a 52%-44% lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney was born and raised.

175 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:13:32pm

There it is. Another right wing film. Dennis M. Lynch

176 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:14:01pm

re: #172 Charles Johnson

First results after the 47% comments are coming in now at Gallup - more bad news for Willard.

Voters' Reaction to Romney's '47%' Comments Tilts Negative

I'm sure Mongoose will find something in there that Gallup should be "embarrassed" over./

177 Charles Johnson  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:14:30pm

re: #173 Targetpractice

Sen. McDreamy had to think about it, but he's decided to keep himself tied to the sinking ship...

Scott Brown Spokeswoman Tells TPM He Still Supports Mitt Romney

I'd love to hear the private phone calls from Capitol Hill when somebody like Scott Brown starts to stray off the reservation.

178 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:14:54pm

re: #175 Gus

There it is. Another right wing film. Dennis M. Lynch

They Come to America

179 Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:15:20pm

Well, Pew says they're likely voters, and I don't know how they weight their results. In addition, i don't seem to find them anywhere in the FiveThirtyEight pollster rankings, so I'd have to take this particular result with a grain of salt.

But on reading further, from what I can glean, PEW tends to have a slight (1 - 2) Democratic lean in it's results, if you factor that in, then the results are a +4 to +6 Obama lead, which would be much less likely an Outlier when that lean is factored in.

(One trick I use with Rasmussen is to take the number of weeks til election and divide by two, that's the amount of republican lean in their poll. Rasmussen is notorious for leaning heavily Republican early and slowly shifting their polls to be more accurate the closer you get to election time.)

180 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:15:25pm

re: #165 blueraven

How about this Pew poll from June...it has Obama up just 2

[Link: www.people-press.org...]

The D/R/I breakdown is about the same 33/24/39 (page 70)

I see that one as being Obama +4, not +2 (Page 4?) I may be missing a section...it's a long document. Either way, I still think their picture of the electorate is wrong, and we won't know until November. If D+9 (Or even D+7) happens, I'll apologize to Pew and admit my wrongness to everyone disagreeing with me here. Until then it's an academic exercise.

181 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:16:32pm

re: #179 Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All

Yeah, I think Rasmussen does that too. But he nails it on E-day.

182 Petero1818  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:16:42pm

I suspect we need to brace ourselves for some extraordinary dirty pool in the coming weeks. I don't know what its going to be, perhaps a woman hired to allege Obama infidelity - something that will go to the core of Obama's character. They need something that makes him less likable, particularly with women. I hope I am wrong, but if the trend is a downward spiral for Mittens, I expect them to go nuclear in an effort to shake things up. There is too much time left in this election and I just don't see Mittens and his crew riding it out this way.

183 Patricia Kayden  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:17:11pm

Yes that poll is great. Just saw it on Martin Bashir's show. Other polls aren't so great though (Rasmussen, Gallup). But overall, things don't look good for Romney. He appears always to be on the defensive, which I'm sure isn't helping is unfavorability ratings. I don't think there's enough $$$ and time for him to buy this election.

184 Obdicut  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:18:32pm

re: #180 The Mongoose

No, you still don't get it. You've said this poll is 'wrong', alleged their methodologies are at fault. They publish their methedologies in the clear, open to criticism, but for some reason you eschew actually looking at them and criticizing them.

I think it's likely this poll is a slight outlier. So are a lot of other polls. I manage not to lose my shit and talk about pollsters being embarassed by such polls, though.

185 Targetpractice  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:18:39pm

re: #177 Charles Johnson

I'd love to hear the private phone calls from Capitol Hill when somebody like Scott Brown starts to stray off the reservation.

"Listen here, you little prick! If you can't follow orders, then we'll spend our money on candidates who can!"

186 Nervous Norvous  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:18:43pm

re: #182 Petero1818

I suspect we need to brace ourselves for some extraordinary dirty pool in the coming weeks. I don't know what its going to be, perhaps a woman hired to allege Obama infidelity - something that will go to the core of Obama's character. They need something that makes him less likable, particularly with women. I hope I am wrong, but if the trend is a downward spiral for Mittens, I expect them to go nuclear in an effort to shake things up. There is too much time left in this election and I just don't see Mittens and his crew riding it out this way.

The problem with taking that approach is that Obama has been so achingly above board and scandal free so far that the only people it will resonate with are the people who would have voted against him already.

187 JamesWI  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:18:45pm

re: #179 Stormageddon, Dark Lord of All

Well, Pew says they're likely voters, and I don't know how they weight their results. In addition, i don't seem to find them anywhere in the FiveThirtyEight pollster rankings, so I'd have to take this particular result with a grain of salt.

But on reading further, from what I can glean, PEW tends to have a slight (1 - 2) Democratic lean in it's results, if you factor that in, then the results are a +4 to +6 Obama lead, which would be much less likely an Outlier when that lean is factored in.

(One trick I use with Rasmussen is to take the number of weeks til election and divide by two, that's the amount of republican lean in their poll. Rasmussen is notorious for leaning heavily Republican early and slowly shifting their polls to be more accurate the closer you get to election time.)

I like the story about Rasmussen that's on his Wikipedia page. Three weeks before the 2010 elections, he released a poll on the Hawaii Senate race that showed the Republican challenger to be 13% behind Inouye. On election day, Inouye won.....by 53%. It was the worst prediction Nate Silver has in his entire database of polls, going back to 1998.

188 SpaceJesus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:19:34pm

"Other Percentages of Americans Romney Won't Bother With"

[Link: www.somethingawful.com...]

189 Gus  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:20:33pm

I always find people trying to pick apart polls to be rather humorous.

190 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:20:59pm

re: #171 Interesting Times

If Obama starts to pull away I'm going to invest in whoever makes fifes and tri-cornered hats. That will be huge next four years.

and the company that prints all those "sovereign citizen ID" cards and badges...

191 Political Atheist  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:22:08pm

Back on topic-This just in
CNN
CNN/ORC poll finds President Obama holds a 52%-44% lead over Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney was born and raised.

192 Lidane  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:22:40pm

Ouch:

193 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:22:49pm

re: #182 Petero1818

I suspect we need to brace ourselves for some extraordinary dirty pool in the coming weeks. I don't know what its going to be, perhaps a woman hired to allege Obama infidelity - something that will go to the core of Obama's character. They need something that makes him less likable, particularly with women. I hope I am wrong, but if the trend is a downward spiral for Mittens, I expect them to go nuclear in an effort to shake things up. There is too much time left in this election and I just don't see Mittens and his crew riding it out this way.

The more Mitt screws up, the deeper they have to reach into their bag of dirty tricks, they will get to the rattlesnakes soon enough...

194 Amory Blaine  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:27:45pm

Obama expands lead over Romney in two Wisconsin polls

President Barack Obama has opened up a bigger lead over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin since the party conventions, according to two new statewide polls.

The surveys diverge over the size of that lead.

Obama leads Romney by six points (51% to 45%) in a poll of 1,485 likely voters taken Sept. 11-17 by Quinnipiac University, the New York Times and CBS.

And the President leads Romney by a significantly larger margin -- 54% to 40% -- in a poll of 601 likely voters taken Sept. 13-16 by Marquette Law School. (That's Obama's biggest lead in Marquette's polling since February).

195 kirkspencer  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:28:35pm

re: #153 The Mongoose

I am not privy to their methodology and it would take a long time to fully understand it even if I was. But here's where I'm coming from.

I can think of only 3 possibilities:

1) Obama is up 8, (+/-2.4%, the poll's MOE)
2) This was an outlier poll
3) Something is wrong with Pew's sample

I find #1 extremely unlikely given the average of 5 other polls is Obama +1.8.

#2 is exactly 5% likely.

I think it's more likely #3 than either of the others. I could be wrong. We can't know for sure.

Actually, given the average of the other polls #2, that it is an outlier, is indeed the most likely. This is especially true given that most of Pew's polls are much closer to the average.

196 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:29:52pm

re: #189 Gus

I always find people trying to pick apart polls to be rather humorous.

Really? I love the numbers side of all this. Picking apart this stuff gets me thinking in ways I don't normally get to. To each his own I suppose.

197 blueraven  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:30:05pm

re: #180 The Mongoose

I see that one as being Obama +4, not +2 (Page 4?) I may be missing a section...it's a long document. Either way, I still think their picture of the electorate is wrong, and we won't know until November. If D+9 (Or even D+7) happens, I'll apologize to Pew and admit my wrongness to everyone disagreeing with me here. Until then it's an academic exercise.

You are correct, it is 4 not 2. I was looking at the wrong line at RCP
Doesn't matter though, their DRI% has been consistent.

198 Decatur Deb  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:33:54pm

re: #190 47 turn it up to 11

and the company that prints all those "sovereign citizen ID" cards and badges...

Funny you should mention that:

"Federal agents arrested a self-proclaimed “President” of a sovereign citizen group on Tuesday in Dale County on multiple felony charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States.
Clark Morris, a spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s Office, said federal agents arrested James Timothy Turner, 56, of Ozark, as part of a 10-count felony indictment.
According to a statement from the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Turner has proclaimed himself the “President” of the sovereign groups dubbed “Republic for the united States of America” (“RuSA.”) The statement also said Turner allegedly conducted seminars during which he taught people how to file retaliatory liens against government officials and to defraud the IRS by preparing and submitting fictitious bonds to the U.S. government in payment of federal taxes....snip"

[Link: www2.dothaneagle.com...]

Lower Alabama seems to be ground zero for these nutcases, and they are more triggerhappy than our moribund klan and militia freaks.

199 The Mongoose  Wed, Sep 19, 2012 1:34:26pm

re: #195 kirkspencer

Actually, given the average of the other polls #2, that it is an outlier, is indeed the most likely. This is especially true given that most of Pew's polls are much closer to the average.

Well, there's a 95% chance it's either 1 or 3. That's why I go with #3 and why I got interested in this one. But that's true of each and every poll, which is why you're right about the idea that when a firm is within the consensus and then bounces out of it, you have to look at the possibility that it's just that 1 time in 20. When I worked with data (polls and other forms) I found this a helpful and hilarious reminder of the dangers involved in the world of confidence intervals: [Link: xkcd.com...]


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