CNN Poll Keeps Horse Race Alive

Masters of illusion
Politics • Views: 33,292

Finally — a poll Fox News and the Right Wing Unison Blogosphere will like. From CNN, keeping that horse race alive:

Washington (CNN) � Two days before the first presidential debate, a new national survey indicates a very close contest between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the race for the White House.

And according to a CNN/ORC International poll, neither candidate appears to have an edge on the economy, which remains the top issue on the minds of Americans and which may dominate Wednesday night’s debate on domestic issues in Denver.

Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the CNN survey, which was released Monday, say that if the election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 47% saying they would support Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. The president’s three point margin is within the poll’s sampling error.

Jump to bottom

331 comments
1 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:30:34pm
with 47% saying they would support Romney

Ha.

2 researchok  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:37:01pm

CNN is looking for viewers.

A horse race is always a draw.

3 Amory Blaine  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:39:50pm

Boggles my mind how Romney's numbers could be rising at this point.

4 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:40:21pm

I hate 100% of polls.

5 wrenchwench  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:42:19pm

Playing the horse race card.

6 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:47:56pm

Ignore the polls and fact checkers! Trickery! Shenanigans!
/

7 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:49:19pm

re: #6 Killgore Trout

Ignore the polls and fact checkers! Trickery! Shenanigans!
/

Black magic? Voodoo? Tomfoolery?
/

8 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:50:33pm

re: #7 Cannadian Club Akbar

Black magic? Voodoo? Tomfoolery?
/

Sex! Drugs! Rock-n-Roll!

9 blueraven  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:50:35pm
10 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:50:36pm

Gallup: 49%-45%
[Link: www.gallup.com...]

11 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:52:18pm

Latest Polls, Real Clear Politics
[Link: www.realclearpolitics.com...]

12 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:54:17pm

I have a hard time figuring out how any of the pollsters get a couple thousand random people to answer their home phones when caller ID says "unkown caller". I'd take a wild guess they have to make 50,000 calls to get 2,000 answers.

13 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:55:26pm

Massachusetts: Romney vs. Obama
[Link: www.realclearpolitics.com...]

(I hear that Romney was once Governor of Massachusetts)

14 Amory Blaine  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:55:28pm

I am a job creator: A manifesto for the entitled

15 AntonSirius  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:56:09pm
The president’s three point margin is within the poll’s sampling error.

So is a six point Obama lead...

16 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:57:02pm

re: #7 Cannadian Club Akbar

Trickery! Shenanigans!
/

Black magic? Voodoo? Tomfoolery?

Horseplay? Rough-Housing? Hide the Sausage?

17 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 3:59:04pm

Is this poll broken down as to how many R's, D's and Indies were called?

18 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:02:55pm

re: #17 Cannadian Club Akbar

IS this poll broken down as to how many R's, D's and Indies were called?

I hate it when they make the actual poll data hard to find. The PDF is buried in their article somewhere.
PDF

19 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:04:05pm

CNN Polling FAQ:
[Link: cgi.cnn.com...]

20 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:04:11pm

re: #17 Cannadian Club Akbar

IS this poll broken down as to how many R's, D's and Indies were called?

Someday it will be revealed that the variation from one poll to the next had a lot to do with low wage survey takers getting tired of most everyone they called hanging up on them so they reverted to a bit of CreataData tactics from back in high school lab class to get to the respondent number they needed to finish. Just a hunch.

21 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:06:31pm

A relevant tweet I saw earlier today:

Saying it's within the margin of error doesn't mean "Well, that means it could just as easily be tied." In this particular case, it means there is about an 80-85% chance that Obama truly is in the lead (in regards to this particular poll).

23 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:07:49pm

re: #21 JamesWI

A relevant tweet I saw earlier today:

[Embedded content]

Saying it's within the margin of error doesn't mean "Well, that means it could just as easily be tied." In this particular case, it means there is about an 80-85% chance that Obama truly is in the lead.

Exactly right, but explaining standard deviations and normal distributions is a lot harder than saying "statistically tied". Sigh.

24 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:10:16pm

re: #12 Mich-again

I have a hard time figuring out how any of the pollsters get a couple thousand random people to answer their home phones when caller ID says "unkown caller". I'd take a wild guess they have to make 50,000 calls to get 2,000 answers.

From what I've seen it's usually closer to 5:1 than 25:1, but people definitely hang up on these things at a pretty solid rate, which leads to the problem of figuring out if the subpopulation of people who actually respond is really representative of the whole population.

25 Gus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:10:23pm

Looks like Republican David Gregory is the moderator.

26 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:10:25pm

I have a poll. Would you rather have ham and scalloped potatoes or ham and au gratin potatoes? Doesn't matter. I mixed the two together.:)

27 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:11:05pm

re: #24 The Mongoose

From what I've seen it's usually closer to 5:1 than 25:1, but people definitely hang up on these things at a pretty solid rate, which leads to the problem of figuring out if the subpopulation of people who actually respond is really representative of the whole population.

People also lie.

28 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:12:42pm

re: #21 JamesWI

A relevant tweet I saw earlier today:

[Embedded content]

Saying it's within the margin of error doesn't mean "Well, that means it could just as easily be tied." In this particular case, it means there is about an 80-85% chance that Obama truly is in the lead (in regards to this particular poll).

Th MoE's I'm used to are also limited to the statistical effects of the sample size. They don't reflect bad polling practices or poor survey instrument design.

29 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:12:56pm

re: #27 Cannadian Club Akbar

People also lie.

For sure...some wonky exits over the last few years might bear this out. I think a pollster would say it's OK for people to lie so long as the liars are randomly distributed, but that can't always be the case.

30 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:14:16pm

re: #21 JamesWI

Saying it's within the margin of error doesn't mean "Well, that means it could just as easily be tied." In this particular case, it means there is about an 80-85% chance that Obama truly is in the lead (in regards to this particular poll).

It gets more confusing when multiple polls report results and margins of errors that do not coincide. I don't necessarily think you should just take all the polls and average their results, because that puts them all on the same standing of legitimacy, but that method would probably be the best predictor. I think pollsters should have to report their "batting average" from the last 5 elections as part of their polling data. ha

31 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:14:21pm

This 3-point lead is similar to the aggregate "poll of polls" you'll find at Pollster, RCP, Silver's 538, etc, over the last month or so (around 3.5-4% nationally). ONE poll showing a 3 point lead doesn't mean much. But dozens of such polls over a month obviously do. So if CNN is presenting its poll as something different, that's absurd. It's just a reaffirmation of what we've seen for a month now.

Remember 2004 results: Bush won by 2.4% nationally and acted as if he'd won some sort of huge mandate. We're living in a polarized era where the huge landslides of yesteryear (LBJ over Goldwater, Nixon over McGovern, etc) are no longer likely. There are too many solid blue and red states for us to see 49-state landslides again soon. The cultural and demographic differences between states have grown to the point that a national lead of 3-4 points is pretty significant.

32 darthstar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:15:39pm

Wingnut anti-woman policy leveraging religion takes a hit.

The burden of which plaintiffs complain is that funds, which plaintiffs will contribute to a group health plan, might, after a series of independent decisions by health care providers and patients covered by OIH’s plan, subsidize someone else’s participation in an activity that is condemned by plaintiffs’ religion. This Court rejects the proposition that requiring indirect financial support of a practice, from which plaintiff himself abstains according to his religious principles, constitutes a substantial burden on plaintiff’s religious exercise.

33 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:17:29pm

re: #31 palomino

This 3-point lead is similar to the aggregate "poll of polls" you'll find at Pollster, RCP, Silver's 538, etc, over the last month or so (around 3.5-4% nationally). ONE poll showing a 3 point lead doesn't mean much. But dozens of such polls over a month obviously do. So if CNN is presenting its poll as something different, that's absurd. It's just a reaffirmation of what we've seen for a month now.

Remember 2004 results: Bush won by 2.4% nationally and acted as if he'd won some sort of huge mandate. We're living in a polarized era where the huge landslides of yesteryear (LBJ over Goldwater, Nixon over McGovern, etc) are no longer likely. There are too many solid blue and red states for us to see 49-state landslides again soon. The cultural and demographic differences between states have grown to the point that a national lead of 3-4 points is pretty significant.

Yeah, like an hour before they released this poll CNN was sending out tweets announcing that their poll would have some "Big surprises!"

And then it came out, and I said "What exactly is the big surprise? A poll that is completely in-line with every other poll released over the last month?"

34 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:18:07pm

God, Scott Brown sounds like a stupid prick in this debate.....again. Hopefully Massachusetts voters are seeing the same things I am.

35 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:18:27pm

re: #17 Cannadian Club Akbar

Is this poll broken down as to how many R's, D's and Indies were called?

Why is that a big issue all of a sudden? Pollsters basically got things right in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010. Did they suddenly change a polling methodology that had worked well for at least a decade?

36 calochortus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:19:28pm

re: #30 Mich-again

The problem with reporting "batting averages" is that an outfit like Rasmussen will score high, because they tend to bring their results closer to reality as the actual election nears. Maybe 75% of the population did support Elmer Fudd two months before the election-who can say for sure? By election day, they'll have him losing with only 10% of the vote, similar to actual results, so they're accurate. But they sure didn't have useful poll results two months before the election.

37 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:19:53pm

re: #32 darthstar

This Court rejects the proposition that requiring indirect financial support of a practice, from which plaintiff himself abstains according to his religious principles, constitutes a substantial burden on plaintiff’s religious exercise.

Freedom of Religion also means Freedom from Religion.

38 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:20:15pm

re: #35 palomino

Why is that a big issue all of a sudden? Pollsters basically got things right in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010. Did they suddenly change a polling methodology that had worked well for at least a decade?

It isn't a big deal to me. I hate polls. And I've said it here for years and actually said it on this link. Nothing "sudden" from me.

39 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:21:00pm

re: #35 palomino

Why is that a big issue all of a sudden? Pollsters basically got things right in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010. Did they suddenly change a polling methodology that had worked well for at least a decade?

Because wingnuts are convinced that there's no way Democrats will show up like they did in 2008!!! They base this on.....the fact that wingnuts don't like Obama, and therefore, Democrats just aren't going to show up!

Science!

40 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:22:09pm

A list of polling accuracy.
[Link: blog.chron.com...]

41 A Mom Anon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:22:20pm

re: #32 darthstar

Heh. Good. I was trying to explain this to my neighbor,who is having a baby moose over this,that if she doesn't want an abortion,no one is making her have one. She's contributing to a larger pool that may in fact indirectly pay for that coverage but it doesn't mean she's paying for an abortion,any more than she's paying for a heart attack or diabetes or psychological issues she may never have. And is sure as hell doesn't interfere with her going to Mass on Sundays or praying or anything else to do with her beliefs. She also seems to not comprehend that many Catholic employers have provided healthcare for YEARS that includes both abortion and contraception coverage because they hire people from many faiths to work in their schools and hospitals,it's not just Catholics.

This whole argument is just nuts and it's designed to piss people off and scare them. Because we need more of that,not less. Sigh.

42 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:23:12pm

re: #37 Mich-again

Freedom of Religion also means Freedom from Religion.

I especially like the phrase, freedom of religion is a shield, not a sword.

43 wrenchwench  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:24:16pm

re: #41 A Mom Anon

I was trying to explain this to my neighbor,who is having a baby moose over this,that if she doesn't want an abortion,no one is making her have one.

Might be a good idea, though....

44 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:24:21pm

re: #35 palomino

Why is that a big issue all of a sudden? Pollsters basically got things right in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010. Did they suddenly change a polling methodology that had worked well for at least a decade?

In 2008 they changed a methodology that had worked for 200 yrs--they showed the white guy wasn't winning.

45 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:24:57pm

re: #39 JamesWI

Because wingnuts are convinced that there's no way Democrats will show up like they did in 2008!!! They base this on.....the fact that wingnuts don't like Obama, and therefore, Democrats just aren't going to show up!

Science!

It would be staggering to see Democrats show up like they did in 2008 (relative to Republicans). That's not a wingnut position; not many serious people think the democratic turnout advantage will match 2008. The nuttery comes when people take that and then just declare that Romney is "actually ahead!" Lunacy.

46 A Mom Anon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:25:33pm

re: #43 wrenchwench

yeah,those hooves have gotta hurt,and the labor pains,owie,lol.

47 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:26:23pm

re: #38 Cannadian Club Akbar

It isn't a big deal to me. I hate polls. And I've said it here for years and actually said it on this link. Nothing "sudden" from me.

Ignoring the fact that it isn't a "big deal" for you, why did you ask the question? The fact is that Dems hold a substantial registration advantage, so it's not clear why polls should try to artificially enforce a parity that doesn't seem to exist in the real world. Polls typically call up random numbers and correct for real world discrepancies in the results such as age distribution.

Also, why do you hate polls?

48 efuseakay  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:26:31pm

The only poll that matters is in November.

49 wrenchwench  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:26:46pm

re: #46 A Mom Anon

yeah,those hooves have gotta hurt,and the labor pains,owie,lol.

I'm still chuckling.

50 darthstar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:30:38pm
51 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:31:01pm

re: #47 goddamnedfrank

Ignoring the fact that it isn't a "big deal" for you, why did you ask the question? The fact is that Dems hold a substantial registration advantage, so it's not clear why polls should try to artificially enforce a parity that doesn't seem to exist in the real world. Polls typically call up random numbers and correct for real world discrepancies in the results such as age distribution.

Also, why do you hate polls?

I hate polls because people lie and pollster can call more peeps to get a desired result or phrase the question as such.

52 Mich-again  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:31:19pm

re: #41 A Mom Anon

This whole argument is just nuts and it's designed to piss people off and scare them. Because we need more of that,not less. Sigh.

I belong to the Church and when I have heard this argument from others I just point out other ways the GOP platform is counter to Church teaching and ask them why should a Catholic support those policies?

53 darthstar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:32:23pm

re: #48 efuseakay

The only poll that matters is in November.

If the GOP decides to double-down on sabotaging America for political gain by blocking any and every policy Democrats (or Republicans) propose, then November won't matter much either.

54 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:32:29pm

Hey Frank, I'm 1 karma point away from 33K. Show me the love!!!

56 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:34:34pm

re: #54 Cannadian Club Akbar

Hey Frank, I'm 1 karma point away from 33K. Show me the love!!!

Quite an upding-farm you've got there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it...

57 darthstar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:36:31pm

Scott Brown making friends.

58 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:36:53pm

re: #56 erik_t

Quite an upding-farm you've got there. It'd be a shame if something happened to it...

Heh. I can remember when Space Jesus had a 5 digit negative karma. Now it's Buck. It's all good...

59 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:37:00pm

David Gregory is fucking awful. Let's Brown talk as long as he wants, cuts off Warren in the middle of her answer.

60 darthstar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:37:34pm

re: #59 JamesWI

David Gregory is fucking awful. Let's Brown talk as long as he wants, cuts off Warren in the middle of her answer.

Gregory doesn't like intelligent women. They scare him.

61 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:38:01pm

Then of course, cuts to a break after Brown finishes his bullshit, not giving Warren a chance to respond to said bullshit

62 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:38:51pm

re: #33 JamesWI

Yeah, like an hour before they released this poll CNN was sending out tweets announcing that their poll would have some "Big surprises!"

And then it came out, and I said "What exactly is the big surprise? A poll that is completely in-line with every other poll released over the last month?"

Somehow a 50-47 poll from CNN is "Breaking News!", while all other national polls are unimportant, even though they show pretty much the same thing. (Rasmussen gave O a 3-point lead in its latest, and nearly all other polls are in that 2-4% range.)

63 The Ghost of a Flea  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:40:54pm

It's 2012. Let's revisit Focus on the Family's 2008 predictions about Obama's America.

The crazy has been maintained at this level for four years, and I'll wager they've got enough left in the tank to make it to 2016.

64 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:43:54pm

Hey Charles, didn't you add a function here where Lizards could make up their own poll? Is that still around or did people not use it enough to keep it?

65 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:46:40pm

Gregory has Warren answer question from the audience first, then gives Brown all the time to respond to both the question and Warren.....then shuts down Warren when she wants to respond to Brown.

Fucking awful.

66 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:48:21pm

Now Brown's answering a question first.....let's see if Gregory lets Brown respond to Warren afterwards.....

67 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:48:53pm

re: #39 JamesWI

Because wingnuts are convinced that there's no way Democrats will show up like they did in 2008!!! They base this on.....the fact that wingnuts don't like Obama, and therefore, Democrats just aren't going to show up!

Science!

Romney could still win this election; even optimistic liberal Nate Silver gives the Romney a whopping 15% of taking the electoral college.

Having said that, there is deep denial on the right. Many simply can't believe that we could re-elect someone they hate so much. The cognitive dissonance must be overwhelming. Polls have shown him somewhat ahead of Romney for virtually all of 2012, they've shown him with a rough 50% approval rating for most of his term, and an even slightly higher favorability rating.

It's irrational, to say the least, that all these numbers are severely skewed due to "sampling bias" on the part of all pollsters.

68 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:49:02pm

Wow, he didn't. I'm actually surprised.

69 Gus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:51:37pm

Scalia! lol

70 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:51:42pm

re: #18 Killgore Trout

I hate it when they make the actual poll data hard to find. The PDF is buried in their article somewhere.
PDF

Still, its a well constructed, properly weighted poll. I find it credible.

71 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:51:59pm

Justice Scalia is Scott Brown's "model Justice".....gets booed loudly.

72 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:52:15pm

re: #51 Cannadian Club Akbar

I hate polls because people lie and pollster can call more peeps to get a desired result or phrase the question as such.

You're right that one poll doesn't mean shit. But when multiple polls are averaged out over a long period of time, their predictive value is very high. Aggregate polls have basically "gotten it right" in the case of presidential and congressional races over the last couple decades.

73 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:53:03pm

re: #71 JamesWI

Justice Scalia is Scott Brown's "model Justice".....gets booed loudly.

By Donks who think Ginsburg is a model justice. Phooy!

74 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:53:09pm

David Gregory is the reason I stopped watching Meet The Press.

75 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:53:47pm

re: #72 palomino

See my #40 post.

76 Mattand  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:53:56pm

re: #67 palomino

Romney could still win this election; even optimistic liberal Nate Silver gives the Romney a whopping 15% of taking the electoral college.

Having said that, there is deep denial on the right. Many simply can't believe that we could re-elect someone they hate so much. The cognitive dissonance must be overwhelming. Polls have shown him somewhat ahead of Romney for virtually all of 2012, they've shown him with a rough 50% approval rating for most of his term, and an even slightly higher favorability rating.

It's irrational, to say the least, that all these numbers are severely skewed due to "sampling bias" on the part of all pollsters.

One would hope that if Obama wins by a respectable margin, some of these folks would take a minute and think, "Well, if he got elected twice by a decent percentage of my fellow Americans, maybe I've been wrong about some things."

One would hope that. The reality is more likely the few right wingers that still have a tenuous grip on reality will snap when they realize a black guy with an Arabic sounding name is still running the US

77 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:54:34pm

re: #73 Dark_Falcon

By Donks who think Ginsburg is a model justice. Phooy!

'Donk' again. So very classy.

In the Brownian mindset tonight, I see.

78 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:54:41pm

re: #74 Reverend Mother Ramallo

David Gregory is the reason I stopped watching Meet The Press.

Tim Russert is the reason I used to watch MTP.

79 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:55:40pm

re: #70 Dark_Falcon

Still, its a well constructed, properly weighted poll. i find it credible.

It's an outlier but it seems an honest and normal poll.

80 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:56:24pm

re: #73 Dark_Falcon

By Donks who think Ginsburg is a model justice. Phooy!

Scalia is a fucking hack. He talks a big game about being a "textualist" or whatever he chooses to call it, but if right-wing viewpoint goes against the text, he has absolutely no problem going against his supposed philosophy.

81 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:57:01pm

re: #73 Dark_Falcon

By Donks who think Ginsburg is a model justice. Phooy!

"Donks"? Really? Is that you, Steve?

If you're gonna reprimand others for using demeaning language about your party, then lay off the donks bullshit.

82 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:58:08pm

re: #77 erik_t

'Donk' again. So very classy.

In the Brownian mindset tonight, I see.

Oh yeah, I'm a Scott Brown fan.

83 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:59:21pm

re: #82 Dark_Falcon

Oh yeah, I'm a Scott Brown fan.

I would bet every cent in my cookie jar that you'd pull that lever without the tiniest bit of shame when push came to shove.

Akin, too. I've seen no evidence to the contrary.

84 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 4:59:37pm

I will point out that 50-47 is actually a really damn good number for Obama, because it means Romney has to take virtually the entire remaining 3%, or he loses.

85 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:00:17pm

Scalia: "I only base my rulings on what is in the text of the Constitution" (not an actual quote, just stating his supposed philsophy) "Oh wait, the Florida Supreme Court said that they'll allow a recount? Fuck the text, obviously the Founders would want George W. Bush as President! No recount!"

86 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:00:28pm

re: #78 Cannadian Club Akbar

Tim Russert is the reason I used to watch MTP.

I miss the way he would toss out a politician's most recent statement, then show the pol. the contradictory statement he/she made two weeks before on the big screen.

87 The Ghost of a Flea  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:00:42pm

Originalism: when you contact the Founding Fathers on the Ouija Board, they strangely end up agreeing with the opinions of Justice Scalia and the people who invite him to right-wing fundraisers.

88 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:02:31pm

re: #87 The Ghost of a Flea

They're all big air-power enthusiasts, oddly enough.

89 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:05:13pm

re: #84 aagcobb

I will point out that 50-47 is actually a really damn good number for Obama, because it means Romney has to take virtually the entire remaining 3%, or he loses.

It also totally ignores the state by state distribution of votes. Romney is in a deep, deep hole in terms of the electoral distribution.

90 bratwurst  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:05:31pm

re: #81 palomino

"Donks"? Really? Is that you, Steve?

The fact that Steve is now regularly belittling him BY NAME on a regular basis elsewhere doesn't disuade DF from emulating him. It's unbelievable to me.

91 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:06:31pm

re: #75 Cannadian Club Akbar

See my #40 post.

The article you quote was from the day after the 2008 election, before all votes had been counted, and lists 6.15% as Obama's winning margin. He actually won by 7.2%; sometimes it helps to wait for all votes to be counted before citing an article.

The larger point remains unchanged: if you take polls from 20 different pollsters, average them out over many months, you'll usually get a quite accurate advance portrait of what election day will look like. Just as has happened over the last decade plus, during which we've had no big election day shockers.

92 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:07:00pm

re: #87 The Ghost of a Flea

Originalism: when you contact the Founding Fathers on the Ouija Board, they strangely end up agreeing with the opinions of Justice Scalia and the people who invite him to right-wing fundraisers.

It's also strange that that the Founders agree with Scalia's decisions in criminal law, where it is nearly impossible to find an instance of Justice Scalia voting against police power.

Because if there's one thing the Founders believed in, it was the nearly limitless power of the government to intrude in the lives of criminal suspects......wait, what?

93 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:08:50pm

re: #85 JamesWI

Scalia: "I only base my rulings on what is in the text of the Constitution" (not an actual quote, just stating his supposed philsophy) "Oh wait, the Florida Supreme Court said that they'll allow a recount? Fuck the text, obviously the Founders would want George W. Bush as President! No recount!"

The Florida recount was a law. If an election was within 1/2 of 1% an automatic recount happened. Period.

94 Destro  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:09:51pm

I think at this point I want Obama to win so I can enjoy the right wing lose their collective minds.

95 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:10:16pm

re: #64 Cannadian Club Akbar

Hey Charles, didn't you add a function here where Lizards could make up their own poll? Is that still around or did people not use it enough to keep it?

"I got a poll right here for you, Vinnie."

96 wrenchwench  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:11:06pm

re: #64 Cannadian Club Akbar

Hey Charles, didn't you add a function here where Lizards could make up their own poll? Is that still around or did people not use it enough to keep it?

It's in the Page-making thingy.

97 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:11:13pm

re: #76 Mattand

One would hope that if Obama wins by a respectable margin, some of these folks would take a minute and think, "Well, if he got elected twice by a decent percentage of my fellow Americans, maybe I've been wrong about some things."

One would hope that. The reality is more likely the few right wingers that still have a tenuous grip on reality will snap when they realize a black guy with an Arabic sounding name is still running the US

Agreed. Sadly I think they'll dig in their heels and move even farther right. They lost badly in 2006 and 2008, then moved to the right. They won big in 2010, and again moved rightwards. I don't see any reason for this to stop in the next few cycles.

98 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:11:48pm

re: #96 wrenchwench

Cool. Thanks.

99 gwangung  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:12:32pm

re: #91 palomino

The article you quote was from the day after the 2008 election, before all votes had been counted, and lists 6.15% as Obama's winning margin. He actually won by 7.2%; sometimes it helps to wait for all votes to be counted before citing an article.

The larger point remains unchanged: if you take polls from 20 different pollsters, average them out over many months, you'll usually get a quite accurate advance portrait of what election day will look like. Just as has happened over the last decade plus, during which we've had no big election day shockers.

Well, yeah. Margin of error applies to THIS PARTICULAR sample, and whether it lies within the actual population. If MULTIPLE samples lie in the same general area, then stop paying attention to the margin of error, because it doesn't apply to multiple samples.

100 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:12:36pm

re: #94 Destro

I think at this point I want Obama to win so I can enjoy the right wing lose their collective minds.

Lose?

That happened at least 4 years ago, when the Kenyan usurping dictator moved into the WH.

101 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:13:08pm

re: #99 gwangung

Well, yeah. Margin of error applies to THIS PARTICULAR sample, and whether it lies within the actual population. If MULTIPLE samples lie in the same general area, then stop paying attention to the margin of error, because it doesn't apply to multiple samples.

Well, not quite. Look up your Student-T table.

102 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:13:19pm

re: #81 palomino

"Donks"? Really? Is that you, Steve?

If you're gonna reprimand others for using demeaning language about your party, then lay off the donks bullshit.

As an Alabama Donk, I wish the neighbours would call us "Donks".

103 gwangung  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:13:34pm

re: #101 erik_t

Well, close enough for grad student work....

104 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:14:52pm

re: #85 JamesWI

Scalia: "I only base my rulings on what is in the text of the Constitution" (not an actual quote, just stating his supposed philsophy) "Oh wait, the Florida Supreme Court said that they'll allow a recount? Fuck the text, obviously the Founders would want George W. Bush as President! No recount!"

That wasn't the ruling. The Supreme Court ruled that any further recount had to be completed by the 'safe harbor' date specified under federal election law.

As it happened, the ruling did not matter much anyways: A recount after the ruling by news organizations found that George W. Bush won based on all valid ballots (those ballots where more than 1 presidential candidate was voted for did not count).

105 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:15:17pm

Oh, yeah, Ross Perot is still crazy.

106 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:18:01pm

re: #105 aagcobb

Oh, yeah, Ross Perot is still crazy.

Crazy like a fox, but indeed crazy.

107 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:18:27pm

re: #104 Dark_Falcon

That wasn't the ruling. The Supreme Court ruled that any further recount had to be completed by the 'safe harbor' date specified under federal election law.

As it happened, the ruling did not matter much anyways: A recount after the ruling by news organizations found that George W. Bush won based on all valid ballots (those ballots where more than 1 presidential candidate was voted for did not count).

Weird. You would think the Supervisor of Elections could take care of that shit.
Maybe they just weren't capable of doing their jobs.

108 b_sharp  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:18:45pm

re: #70 Dark_Falcon

Still, its a well constructed, properly weighted poll. I find it credible.

How is it weighted?

109 wrenchwench  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:18:47pm

How you can tell I have important work that I'm avoiding:

I posted 6 Pages today.

I'm going to try to do the other stuff for a bit...

110 Gus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:19:13pm

Oh geez.

111 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:20:06pm

re: #110 Gus

Oh geez.

Well, that's stupid.

FORWARD INTO (FURTHER) IRRELEVANCY

Put your hand down, Newsweek. You're winning already. Don't run up the score.

112 The Ghost of a Flea  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:20:07pm

re: #100 palomino

Lose?

That happened at least 4 years ago, when the Kenyan usurping dictator moved into the WH.

The lunatics and the grifters making millions demagoging to the lunatics are all outliers and lones wolves. As are the gay-haters, the theocrats, the racists, and the nativists. Massive, well funded groups of lone wolves that most Republicans genuflect to. One day Reagan will return from Avalon with his Real True Conservatives and we'll all be saved (in a totally non-racist way) from the brown people and their T-bone-filled welfare Cadillacs.

113 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:20:13pm

re: #104 Dark_Falcon

That wasn't the ruling. The Supreme Court ruled that any further recount had to be completed by the 'safe harbor' date specified under federal election law.

As it happened, the ruling did not matter much anyways: A recount after the ruling by news organizations found that George W. Bush won based on all valid ballots (those ballots where more than 1 presidential candidate was voted for did not count).

Yeah, they ruled that they had to finish the recount by the date established under the law. That date......was the date the decision was handed down.

Yeah, that's a completely fair and reasonable decision. The recount being stopped by the court challenges, then the Court says "Oh sorry, you had to have the recount done by today!!! Guess you can't do it now!"

Fantastic decision.

114 engineer cat  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:20:34pm

"obama only 3 points ahead"

clearly this means that ronald reagan will come back from the dead after all!

115 engineer cat  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:21:45pm

well constructed, properly weighted poll

i like mine round, firm, and fully packed

116 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:21:53pm

re: #108 reflections of a raging redneck

How is it weighted?

From the poll's PDF, this being from a page on party Identification (so the numbers here exclude independents who don't lean to one side or the other):

BASED ON 305 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 107 REGISTERED
VOTERS WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF
412 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS-- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS.);
BASED ON 270 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 143 REGISTERED
VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL OF 413
REGISTERED REPUBLICANS -- (SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS.)

117 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:22:25pm

re: #114 engineer cat

"obama only 3 points ahead"

clearly this means that ronald reagan will come back from the dead after all!

Treat the man with some respect. It's Zombie Reagan.
/

118 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:22:29pm
On the eve of the election Sandra Day O'Connor had made a public statement that a Gore victory would be a personal disaster for her. Clarence Thomas' wife was so intimately involved in the Bush campaign that she was helping to draw up a list of Bush appointees more or less at the same time as her husband was adjudicating on whether the same man would become the next President. Finally, Antonin Scalia's son was working for the firm appointed by Bush to argue his case before the Supreme Court, the head of which was subsequently appointed as Solictor-General

Yep. Fantastic decision, decided only based on the Founders' original intent!

119 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:24:12pm

re: #116 Dark_Falcon

That's what I was looking for.

120 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:26:37pm

re: #118 JamesWI

Yep. Fantastic decision, decided only based on the Founders' original intent!

It was a State's law issue. Gore is the one who tried to steal the election. And, oh, BTW, I voted for Gore. Same bullshit 12 years later.

121 Belafon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:26:38pm

Obama's at 50%. Let's assume that we were doing a popular vote rather than the electoral college. At 50% we're talking hand grenades and horseshoes for Romney at this point. Close doesn't count any more.

122 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:29:29pm

re: #120 Cannadian Club Akbar

It was a State's law issue. Gore is the one who tried to steal the election. And, oh, BTW, I voted for Gore. Same bullshit 12 years later.

It was a State law issue.....where the Supreme Court over-ruled the State Supreme Court and forced the end of the recount.

Gotcha.

123 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:32:47pm

re: #120 Cannadian Club Akbar

It was a State's law issue. Gore is the one who tried to steal the election. And, oh, BTW, I voted for Gore. Same bullshit 12 years later.

The "State Law" they ultimately decided on was, as I said above, the law that said a recount had to be finished by Dec 12.

The problem was, the recount was stopped....BECAUSE IT WAS BEING FUCKING CHALLENGED IN THE COURTS. It was impossible to do the recount BECAUSE IT WAS IN THE COURTS. And the Supreme Court said "Oh, since you didn't finish the recount when it was FUCKING IMPOSSIBLE to finish it because we took this case (even though nearly all of us should have recused ourselves because of our personal ties), that means you can't do it now!"

Are you fucking kidding me? "Gore is the one who tried to steal the election." Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit.

124 Ghost of Tom Joad  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:33:37pm

re: #120 Cannadian Club Akbar

It was a State's law issue. Gore is the one who tried to steal the election. And, oh, BTW, I voted for Gore. Same bullshit 12 years later.

Hmm...must be history according to one of them new 'history textbooks' they have in Texas.

125 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:33:41pm

re: #110 Gus

Oh geez.

That reminds me; I've been thinking about commissioning some stained glass work.

126 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:34:15pm

re: #125 Killgore Trout

That reminds me; I've been thinking about commissioning some stained glass work.

My cat is willing to stain most anything you can imagine.

My rates are reasonable.

127 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:34:52pm

re: #122 JamesWI

It was a State law issue.....where the Supreme Court over-ruled the State Supreme Court and forced the end of the recount.

Gotcha.

A recount that had become a case of grasping at straws and that needed to be brought to an end soon if Florida's electoral votes were to be counted.

128 steve_davis  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:36:21pm

re: #76 Mattand

One would hope that if Obama wins by a respectable margin, some of these folks would take a minute and think, "Well, if he got elected twice by a decent percentage of my fellow Americans, maybe I've been wrong about some things."

One would hope that. The reality is more likely the few right wingers that still have a tenuous grip on reality will snap when they realize a black guy with an Arabic sounding name is still running the US

What I came to realize as I reached midlife is that stupid people are stupid because they are stupid, and not because they thought it was an attractive lifestyle choice. Self-reflection, sadly, is not one of the virtues of stupidity.

129 Obdicut  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:38:35pm

re: #128 steve_davis

I know a lot of self-reflective stupid people who just come to the wrong conclusions after engaging in self-reflection.

130 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:38:53pm

re: #127 Dark_Falcon

A recount that had become a case of grasping at straws and that needed to be brought to an end soon if Florida's electoral votes were to be counted.

Yes, we know you don't care about getting an accurate count of the votes, as long as your team wins. No need to try to justify it, because you are failing there.

131 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:40:46pm

Grasping at straws. Remember the Brooks Brothers brigade? Just regular folks, yea. Wasn't it Vanity Fair that unmasked those concerned "Florida" voters?

132 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:41:22pm

In terms of the legal reasoning in Bush v. Gore, it is taught in law schools pretty much in the same manner as Dred Scott and Korematsu. That is, the professor gets up and basically says "Yeah....we don't really have an explanation here. This is just fucked up, but it happened, and it's done now"

133 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:41:34pm

re: #130 JamesWI

Yes, we know you don't care about getting an accurate count of the votes, as long as your team wins. No need to try to justify it, because you are failing there.

There had been an accurate count of the votes, but then the Dems wanted another that counted still more ballots by hand.

134 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:41:55pm

re: #122 JamesWI

It was a State law issue.....where the Supreme Court over-ruled the State Supreme Court and forced the end of the recount.

Gotcha.

The State law said the Secretary of State had to call the election within 7 days. The State Supreme court didn't agree and got over ruled. Wow. A State's Supreme Court couldn't follow the law.

135 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:42:09pm

re: #127 Dark_Falcon

A recount that had become a case of grasping at straws and that needed to be brought to an end soon if Florida's electoral votes were to be counted.

Which would have gotten done if allowed to proceed. But then repub operatives started storming the vote counting precincts and causing all kinds of OWS like ruckus. I am sure I can find the photos that list, name by name and positions of the operatives (posing as interested Floridians, while most weren't even from fucking Florida) stormed the precincts. Should have fucking pepper sprayed those wastes of skin and oxygen.

136 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:43:29pm

Al gore lost Florida, folks. Whatever recount was done, given Florida's laws discounting 'overvotes' George W. Bush clearly won, though its true he didn't win by much.

137 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:44:41pm

I guess this explains why I cleaned up the bottom 10 criticizing Michael Moore conspiracy theories last night. It's DF's turn tonight.

138 engineer cat  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:45:05pm

re: #133 Dark_Falcon

There had been an accurate count of the votes, but then the Dems wanted another that counted still more ballots by hand.

i would tend to think that in a democracy, there should never be reasons for not counting votes

"inconvenient" or "taking too long" or "we already counted enough votes" didn't cut any ice with me then or now

139 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:45:17pm

re: #123 JamesWI

They did recounts.
[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]

140 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:45:25pm

re: #135 Eventual Carrion

I don't remember anything like that happening. The Bush campaign and Florida Republican party both sent observers to monitor the recount, as was their right. Places where the recount was performed were not "stormed".

141 Gus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:45:47pm

re: #137 Killgore Trout

I guess this explains why I cleaned up the bottom 10 criticizing Michael Moore conspiracy theories last night. It's DF's turn tonight.

Here's a hint. It wasn't because you were "criticizing Michael Moore conspiracy theories."

142 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:45:50pm

Obama won by a walloping margin compared to Bush in 2004 (never mind 2000). So why did GOPers blather on about Bush's huge mandate, all the while insisting Obama wasn't a "legitimate" president?

Such reeking, steaming hypocrisy that even flies won't buzz around.

143 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:45:55pm

Al Gore lost and we got two wars, a bunch of tax cuts for the rich that exploded our debt and a total financial collapse for our efforts.

Yay progress!

///

144 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:46:07pm

re: #135 Eventual Carrion

Which would have gotten done if allowed to proceed. But then repub operatives started storming the vote counting precincts and causing all kinds of OWS like ruckus. I am sure I can find the photos that list, name by name and positions of the operatives (posing as interested Floridians, while most weren't even from fucking Florida) stormed the precincts. Should have fucking pepper sprayed those wastes of skin and oxygen.

Exactly - The BBB.

[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]

astroturfing for the team.

145 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:46:35pm

re: #137 Killgore Trout

I guess this explains why I cleaned up the bottom 10 criticizing Michael Moore conspiracy theories last night. It's DF's turn tonight.

whiner

146 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:46:51pm

re: #139 Cannadian Club Akbar

They did recounts.
[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]

Yeah, after the fact, with no legal effect. And that page says that depending on the methodology used, the recounts had different results. Most with Bush winning, some with Gore.

So, your point is........?

147 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:05pm

re: #140 Dark_Falcon

I don't remember anything like that happening. The Bush campaign and Florida Republican party both sent observers to monitor the recount, as was their right. Places where the recount was performed were not "stormed".

get educated dark.

148 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:07pm

re: #139 Cannadian Club Akbar

They did recounts.
[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]

I think it was CNN that had an interactive debunking of the florida stolen election thing. I used to keep it bookmarked but it's long lost. Not sure if it's online anymore.

149 Obdicut  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:16pm

We're not going to win the 2000 election here tonight, guys. Gore lost mainly because of third-party votes for Nader by puritopians, and Democrats not turning out to vote for him. He also lost because he inexplicably tried to distance himself from Clinton. He also lost because of Rove's dirty tricks and the pollution of the right-wing media. The Supreme Court case is definitely, self-admittedly flawed-- it sets no precedent-- but it shouldn't even have come up.

150 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:17pm

re: #135 Eventual Carrion

Which would have gotten done if allowed to proceed. But then repub operatives started storming the vote counting precincts and causing all kinds of OWS like ruckus. I am sure I can find the photos that list, name by name and positions of the operatives (posing as interested Floridians, while most weren't even from fucking Florida) stormed the precincts. Should have fucking pepper sprayed those wastes of skin and oxygen.

Any kinda link?

151 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:36pm

That's the way to do it - tear up Brown's fake-ity-fake "moderate" card and use it to line the bottom of a bird cage :D

152 moderatelyradicalliberal  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:37pm

re: #74 Reverend Mother Ramallo

David Gregory is the reason I stopped watching Meet The Press.

You and millions of others. His ratings suck.

153 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:47:40pm

re: #137 Killgore Trout

I guess this explains why I cleaned up the bottom 10 criticizing Michael Moore conspiracy theories last night. It's DF's turn tonight.

And we know you're so concerned. Very concerned.

154 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:00pm

Outrage!

155 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:36pm

re: #116 Dark_Falcon

From the poll's PDF, this being from a page on party Identification (so the numbers here exclude independents who don't lean to one side or the other):

That's not weighting. That's the responses people who answered their phones gave. You don't seem to actually know what weighting is.

All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes.

They implicitly did not weight for party affiliation, instead they did what most pollsters do, they asked questions to determine who the likely voters were and then identified the breakdown of that group by party affiliation:

Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 783 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 37% described themselves as Democrats, 34% described themselves as Independents, and 29% described themselves as Republicans.

156 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:39pm

re: #150 Cannadian Club Akbar

Any kinda link?

i did link.

157 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:39pm

re: #146 JamesWI

Yeah, after the fact, with no legal effect. And that page says that depending on the methodology used, the recounts had different results. Most with Bush winning, some with Gore.

So, your point is........?

My point is that the Sec of State followed the law. And people pissed and moaned about it. And apparently, still are.

158 Killgore Trout  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:45pm

Sorry, I don't want to Df's thunder. I'll lay low.

159 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:47pm

re: #154 Killgore Trout

Troutrage!

160 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:48:49pm

re: #149 Obdicut

We're not going to win the 2000 election here tonight, guys. Gore lost mainly because of third-party votes for Nader by puritopians, and Democrats not turning out to vote for him. He also lost because he inexplicably tried to distance himself from Clinton. He also lost because of Rove's dirty tricks and the pollution of the right-wing media. The Supreme Court case is definitely, self-admittedly flawed-- it sets no precedent-- but it shouldn't even have come up.

I'm not trying to "Win the 2000 election," I was trying to make the point that the reasoning of the Supreme Court decision was fucking awful, an argument that essentially all but the most right-wing of legal analysts agrees with. But not the great hack DF.

161 Gus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:49:10pm
162 SpaceJesus  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:49:12pm

Fox leans right, MSNBC leans left, and CNN leans stupid.

163 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:49:25pm

re: #156 We're All Welfare Queens Now

i did link.

Was it. Thanks.

164 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:50:42pm

re: #147 We're All Welfare Queens Now

get educated dark.

I followed the recount closely, and never saw any story of a recount place being 'stormed' or obstructed by members of either party. When a recount is ordered, both parties have the right to send people to monitor the recount and those people can call attention to ballots they think problematic. Is that somehow wrong or evil?

165 moderatelyradicalliberal  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:51:02pm

re: #151 Interesting Times

That's the way to do it - tear up Brown's fake-ity-fake "moderate" card and use it to line the bottom of a bird cage :D

[Embedded content]

But, but, but........Scott Brown and his truck are pro-choice!!?!?11?!

166 Obdicut  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:51:18pm

re: #160 JamesWI

I'm not trying to "Win the 2000 election," I was trying to make the point that the reasoning of the Supreme Court decision was fucking awful, an argument that essentially all but the most right-wing of legal analysts agrees with.

Yeah, it was screwed up. That's why it sets no precedent. But it really doesn't matter-- partially because it sets no precedent. The things that we can address, in the present, are the systemic problems that still exist-- puritopians, right-wing media spewing constant bullshit, voter disengagement.

The Supreme Court's debacle there mainly serves as a sign of how important it is to not elect a guy like Romney who'll put more Scalia types on the court.

167 Ojoe  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:51:47pm

A big caveat on all these polls is that they only show people willing to take them, and of that sample, they assume that you answered honestly.

168 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:51:50pm

re: #140 Dark_Falcon

I don't remember anything like that happening. The Bush campaign and Florida Republican party both sent observers to monitor the recount, as was their right. Places where the recount was performed were not "stormed".

Start here. The most publicized.

169 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:53:19pm

re: #158 Killgore Trout

Sorry, I don't want to Df's thunder. I'll lay low.

You're fine, Killgore. I'm done talking about this anyways.

170 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:53:52pm

re: #150 Cannadian Club Akbar

Any kinda link?

See above

171 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:53:55pm

re: #167 Ojoe

A big caveat on all these polls is that they only show people willing to take them, and of that sample, they assume that you answered honestly.

That's not a caveat. That's Statistics 101.

The only people who are polled are the people who agree to be polled. And it is assumed by the statisticians that the answers are honest because those answers are the only ones they've got to go on.

172 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:54:35pm

re: #164 Dark_Falcon

I followed the recount closely, and never saw any story of a recount place being 'stormed' or obstructed by members of either party. When a recount is ordered, both parties have the right to send people to monitor the recount and those people can call attention to ballots they think problematic. Is that somehow wrong or evil?

You're telling us you've never heard of the Brooks Brothers Riot?

The demonstration turned violent, and according to the NY Times, "several people were trampled, punched or kicked when protesters tried to rush the doors outside the office of the Miami-Dade supervisor of elections. Sheriff's deputies restored order." DNC aide Luis Rosero was kicked and punched. Within two hours after the riot died down, the canvassing board unanimously voted to shut down the count, in part due to perceptions that the process wasn't open or fair, and in part because the court-mandated deadline was impossible to meet.

That's some incredible brand of ignorance you're wearing.

173 Cannadian Club Akbar  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:55:10pm

Dinner. Outie. Nighty.

174 Ojoe  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:55:13pm

re: #171 Lidane

What you say is true, but it still leaves a hole big enough to drive a Mack Truck thru.

175 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:55:34pm

re: #166 Obdicut

Yeah, it was screwed up. That's why it sets no precedent. But it really doesn't matter-- partially because it sets no precedent. The things that we can address, in the present, are the systemic problems that still exist-- puritopians, right-wing media spewing constant bullshit, voter disengagement.

The Supreme Court's debacle there mainly serves as a sign of how important it is to not elect a guy like Romney who'll put more Scalia types on the court.

Exactly. This all got started by making fun of Scott Brown's love of Scalia (and getting booed for it.) And hack-extraordinaire DF jumped in to defend the hackiest Justice.

The point isn't to say that Bush "stole" the election. He probably did win Florida. The point is the Supreme Court had absolutely no fucking business even taking that case, and not only did they take it, but they made a decision that is essentially completely indefensible using any semblance of legal reasoning or logic.

THAT is what was being argued, before certain people had to turn it into "But Bush probably would have won the recount anyway!!!" That's not the point. The point is that Scalia is a hypocritical hack.

176 Iwouldprefernotto  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:57:05pm

re: #172 goddamnedfrank

You're telling us you've never heard of the Brooks Brothers Riot?

That's some incredible brand of ignorance you're wearing.

I don't always wear ignorance, but when I do....

177 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:57:32pm

re: #164 Dark_Falcon

I followed the recount closely, and never saw any story of a recount place being 'stormed' or obstructed by members of either party. When a recount is ordered, both parties have the right to send people to monitor the recount and those people can call attention to ballots they think problematic. Is that somehow wrong or evil?

I still distinctly remember seeing film of them pushing at the recount room door. Trying to push their way in. Someone (the security maybe) should have pepper sprayed those hooligan, malcontent, trust fund pricks back from the door.

178 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:57:41pm

so part of Bristol Palin's prep for this week's

Dancing with the Stars

involved taking her partner Mark Ballas to a indoor gun range and target shooting there with a shotgun. She used her prep segement to openly proclaim herself to be a "redneck". I don't know what to do with this one, folks can mock it as they see fit.

179 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:57:43pm

Scott Brown's "model justice" Scalia is so terrified of consensual buttsecks he thinks states should have the right to imprison people for it.

Then he also carries on about state-imposed broccoli-eating. Hmmm...bet I know what his deep, dark fantasy involving said vegetable is... :P

180 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:57:52pm

I love it when people don't look at the methodology of a poll and then offer their dumbshit opinion about how it was constructed.

181 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:58:38pm

re: #174 Ojoe

What you say is true, bit it still leaves a hole big enough to drive a Mack Truck thru.

Sure, if you're only looking at one or two surveys.

You could argue that maybe one or two might be flawed, but they can't ALL be wrong, especially if a trend emerges over time and with a discernible pattern.

182 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 5:59:31pm
183 brennant  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:00:12pm

Meanwhile... It’s Decorative Gourd Season, Motherfuckers.

184 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:00:54pm

re: #178 Dark_Falcon

so part of Bristol Palin's prep for this week's

involved taking her partner Mark Ballas to a indoor gun range and target shooting there with a shotgun. She used her prep segement to openly proclaim herself to be a "redneck". I don't know what to do with this one, folks can mock it as they see fit.

grifters gotta grift with whatever they know. tough alaskan with more plastic surgery than women in their 50's.

does not deserve any mention.

185 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:00:55pm

re: #178 Dark_Falcon

so part of Bristol Palin's prep for this week's

involved taking her partner Mark Ballas to a indoor gun range and target shooting there with a shotgun. She used her prep segement to openly proclaim herself to be a "redneck". I don't know what to do with this one, folks can mock it as they see fit.

She has a much better chance of hitting the target with a shotgun.

186 Ojoe  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:02:10pm

re: #181 Lidane

Not so, the discernible pattern could be refusing to answer, or lying. I myself would lie, because I basically hate both political parties, and politics in general.

BBL

187 Charles Johnson  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:03:04pm

The GOP has canceled voter registration efforts in in NV, CO, FL, VA, and NC.

Whoa.

188 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:03:51pm

re: #186 Ojoe

I think part of that behavior is accounted for in the "margin of liar."

189 Varek Raith  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:04:07pm

re: #187 Charles Johnson

The GOP has canceled voter registration efforts in in NV, CO, FL, VA, and NC.

Whoa.

Yikes.

190 Obdicut  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:04:16pm

re: #187 Charles Johnson

The GOP has canceled voter registration efforts in in NV, CO, FL, VA, and NC.

Whoa.

Is that because of the fraud that the place they employed was up to?

They can't be giving up on Florida. They can't.

191 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:04:29pm

LOL republicans-condemn-aiken:

192 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:04:32pm

re: #186 Ojoe

Not so, the discernible pattern could be refusing to answer, or lying. I myself would lie, because I basically hate both political parties, and politics in general.

BBL

Good 'ol nihilism.

193 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:04:45pm

Not to beat a dead horse, but just to define my problem with Scalia in a more succinct manner:

He "makes up the law as he goes" just as often (if not more often) than any other Justice in history. The difference being, most of those other Justices can actually "admit" to it (talking about a "living/evolving Constitution," pointing to the obvious fact that there are many situations in modern life that the Founders would have never even imagined possible), while Scalia has to pretend that he's not doing anything like that, how it's simply a coincidence that in his view, the Founders would have agreed with him about everything, and insults the other Justices who disagree with his fucking absurdity.

THAT is the problem with Scalia. Well, that, and the fact that many of his views are absolutely fucking reprehensible.

194 brennant  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:05:27pm

re: #192 recusancy

Good 'ol nihilism.

Give me ze money Lebowski!

195 Only The Lurker Knows  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:06:22pm

re: #187 Charles Johnson

The GOP has canceled voter registration efforts in in NV, CO, FL, VA, and NC.

Whoa.

/// Gee, I wonder why?

196 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:06:50pm

I love how someone can sit here and claim with a straight face they followed the recount closely while feigning ignorance of probably its most famous incident. One that has its own wikipedia page and over 90K Google hits.

197 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:06:59pm

re: #190 Obdicut

Is that because of the fraud that the place they employed was up to?

They can't be giving up on Florida. They can't.

Most likely, yes. They can't give up those states, but they may feel they need to stop their registration drive and ensure its not tainted.

198 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:07:26pm
Republican parties in Florida, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia -- all states that both campaigns view as competitive -- fired Glen Allen, Virginia-based Strategic Allied Consulting, the company in charge of registrations, said Kirsten Kukowski, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. The national committee also canceled its contract with the company, its only vendor signing up new voters, Kukowski said.
[Link: www.businessweek.com...]

No-bid contract?

199 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:07:30pm

re: #190 Obdicut

Is that because of the fraud that the place they employed was up to?

They can't be giving up on Florida. They can't.

Saw on Twitter earlier that the Koch-worshipping Chamber of Commerce will pick up the slack (re voter registration...or more likely, suppression).

GOP bailing in the hopes their billionaire corporate masters will come to their rescue behind the scenes.

200 BongCrodny  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:07:40pm

Found this transcript at the CNN cite; it's from a special they aired on the 2000 election on November 24, 2000.

While the protesters weren't carrying pitchforks and torches, they were extremely...loud.

Here are some excerpts from the report.

*************

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PROTESTERS: Let us in! Let us in! Let us in!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

**************

PROTESTERS: No more Gore! No more Gore! No more Gore!

POTTER: As Republican protesters gathered noisily outside, the count resumed, and the canvassing board tried to divine the will of the voter by reading chads and other signs. Republicans continued to complain the process was flawed and too subjective.

**************

PELTZ: And now to Broward County, vote counters are trying to concentrate on the job at hand, but there's been another distraction. Protesters are making life noisy as CNN's Susan Candiotti reports from Fort Lauderdale.

**************

While I think "stormed" or "obstructed" are probably not accurate, I think they made the work of the canvassing board more difficult that it needed to be.

And I wonder: what do you suppose might have been the end result *had* the canvassing board "let them in"?

201 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:07:55pm

re: #186 Ojoe

Hate both parties all you want, but that doesn't change the fact that while the occasional actual poll or survey (defined as one done by a polling company with a detailed methodology and not as an online poll) might be flawed, they aren't ALL wrong.

Take a stats class. It might help.

202 The Ghost of a Flea  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:07:59pm

re: #193 JamesWI

Not to beat a dead horse, but just to define my problem with Scalia in a more succinct manner:

He "makes up the law as he goes" just as often (if not more often) than any other Justice in history. The difference being, most of those other Justices can actually "admit" to it (talking about a "living/evolving Constitution," pointing to the obvious fact that there are many situations in modern life that the Founders would have never even imagined possible), while Scalia has to pretend that he's not doing anything like that, how it's simply a coincidence that in his view, the Founders would have agreed with him about everything, and insults the other Justices who disagree with his fucking absurdity.

THAT is the problem with Scalia. Well, that, and the fact that many of his views are absolutely fucking reprehensible.

Also, the tiresome alternation between fucking the corpses of the Founders and using them as pavises for pseudointellectual shit-throwing.

203 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:08:57pm

Upding for pavises.

204 BongCrodny  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:09:14pm

By the way, here's the link to the CNN transcript:

Election 2000: The Florida Recount

205 Obdicut  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:09:29pm

re: #199 Interesting Times

Saw on Twitter earlier that the Koch-worshipping Chamber of Commerce will pick up the slack (re voter registration...or more likely, suppression).

GOP bailing in the hopes their billionaire corporate masters will come to their rescue behind the scenes.

Or, if it's actually planned, it's illegal coordination between the PACs and the Republicans. I'd like to see an investigation of that-- of any coordination. A serious one. On both parties. I think the GOP may be batshit enough and arrogant enough to actually be directly coordinating.

206 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:09:46pm

re: #196 goddamnedfrank

I love how someone can sit here and claim with a straight face they followed the recount closely while feigning ignorance of probably its most famous incident. One that has it's own wikipedia page and over 90K Google hits.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salarycommitment to the team depends upon his not understanding it! - Upton Sinclair

207 EmmaAnne  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:10:04pm

Does anyone have a link for the story on the GOP canceling voter registration?

This is a very big deal in Colorado. The voter suppression efforts aren't going well at all either. And Colorado is a dead heat.

208 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:10:13pm

re: #187 Charles Johnson

The GOP has canceled voter registration efforts in in NV, CO, FL, VA, and NC.

Whoa.

Not surprising. It's because the company they hired that turned out to be engaging in voter registration fraud was in all of those states.

That's a pretty severe blow this close to the final registration deadlines for this election, especially in states like FL, VA, and NC, which IIRC are toss-ups.

209 prairiefire  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:10:19pm

re: #203 jaunte

Upding for pavises.

It's a good scrabble word.

210 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:10:50pm

re: #207 EmmaAnne

Here's one: [Link: www.businessweek.com...]

211 Ojoe  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:12:00pm

"Stop !

Who would cross the Bridge of Death must answer me these questions 3,
Ere the other side he see."
What is your name?
What is your Quest?

What ...

212 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:15:41pm

re: #211 Ojoe

"Stop !

Who would cross the Bridge of Death must answer me these questions 3,
Ere the other side he see."
What is your name?
What is your Quest?

What ...

Here's my answers... [DF draws .45 M1911A1 and opens fire]

///

213 Amory Blaine  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:15:55pm

re: #96 wrenchwench

It's in the Page-making thingy.

You and your technical jargon.

214 Artist  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:16:05pm

re: #211 Ojoe

"Stop !

Who would cross the Bridge of Death must answer me these questions 3,
Ere the other side he see."
What is your name?
What is your Quest?

What ...

... is the capital of Assyria?

215 wrenchwench  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:16:38pm

Later, lizards.

216 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:17:35pm

A quick side trip to opposite-land:
Image: massivedecline.jpg

217 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:18:12pm

re: #216 jaunte

A quick side trip to opposite-land:
Image: massivedecline.jpg

Jim Hoft = DERP!

218 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:18:23pm

Florida voter registration closes 9 Oct. You can't turn a registration effort off and start another in 8 days.

219 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:18:52pm

re: #216 jaunte

A quick side trip to opposite-land:
Image: massivedecline.jpg

Massive Decline = Massive FAIL

220 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:19:00pm

re: #216 jaunte

A quick side trip to opposite-land:
Image: massivedecline.jpg

It's a sort of true headline. There's been a substantial decline in D registrations. But there's been an even more substantial decline in R registrations. Most are registering indy nowadays.

221 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:22:10pm

Hire this woman now:

222 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:22:37pm

re: #218 Decatur Deb

Florida voter registration closes 9 Oct. You can't turn a registration effort off and start another in 8 days.

Just like a candidate can't start explaining what they stand for a month from the election. By now, the conventions are over and some people are even voting. Most have already made up their minds. You either start explaining what you stand for months in advance or you remain vague and let your opponent define you.

223 danarchy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:22:57pm

re: #201 Lidane

Hate both parties all you want, but that doesn't change the fact that while the occasional actual poll or survey (defined as one done by a polling company with a detailed methodology and not as an online poll) might be flawed, they aren't ALL wrong.

Take a stats class. It might help.

One thing that may be an issue is declining response rate in general. I believe it is down around 9% this year. Been steadily declining for a couple decades. It hasn't shown to affect the accuracy of polls yet, but at some point you'd think if the pool of people even willing to take a poll drops too low it is eventually going to have an affect on their accuracy.

224 Amory Blaine  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:26:11pm

re: #192 recusancy

Good 'ol nihilism.

Ah, that must be exhausting.

225 Decatur Deb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:26:23pm

In 30 min, the Dem volunteer GOTV teams supporting Fl are having a leadership livestreamed peptalk. Should go well.

226 garhighway  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:27:00pm

re: #140 Dark_Falcon

I don't remember anything like that happening. The Bush campaign and Florida Republican party both sent observers to monitor the recount, as was their right. Places where the recount was performed were not "stormed".

Here you go:

[Link: en.wikipedia.org...]

227 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:29:06pm

Reactions to Scott Brown's "model Supreme Court Justice" answer

The best is Warren's immediate reaction: Image: anigif_enhanced-buzz-10431-1349139410-2.gif

228 William Barnett-Lewis  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:29:48pm

re: #137 Killgore Trout

I guess this explains why I cleaned up the bottom 10 criticizing Michael Moore conspiracy theories last night. It's DF's turn tonight.

Don't worry, your troll haven is safe. DF is not that, just hyper partisan.

229 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:31:01pm

re: #227 JamesWI

Reactions to Scott Brown's "model Supreme Court Justice" answer

The best is Warren's immediate reaction: Image: anigif_enhanced-buzz-10431-1349139410-2.gif

That sort of reaction will cost her. It looks as disrespectful as it was.

230 Amory Blaine  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:31:36pm

re: #222 Lidane

It's amazing his poll numbers are so high and his campaign has yet to release specifics of any of his plans.

231 erik_t  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:31:47pm

re: #229 Dark_Falcon

That sort of reaction will cost her. It looks as disrespectful as it was.

You are performance art.

232 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:32:39pm

re: #229 Dark_Falcon

That sort of reaction will cost her. It looks as disrespectful as it was.

What do you think about him saying he likes Sotomayor?

233 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:32:53pm

re: #228 William Barnett-Lewis

Don't worry, your troll haven is safe. DF is not that, just hyper partisan.

Thanks. Watching the Bears right now, hoping they can stay ahead of the Packers. They lead the Cowboys 3-0 late in the 2nd quarter, in a first half dominated by defense.

234 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:33:21pm
235 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:33:23pm

re: #232 recusancy

What do you think about him saying he likes Sotomayor?

Eh?

236 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:34:52pm

re: #229 Dark_Falcon

That sort of reaction will cost her. It looks as disrespectful as it was.

lolololololol

Yeah, her laughing at his absolute failure is going to be much worse than Brown's "I'M NOT A STUDENT IN YOUR CLASS, DON'T INTERRUPT ME!!!!" Or the fact that he's more focused on attacking her genealogy than talking about the issues.

Yeah. You're right. Laughter is much worse than that.

Jesus Christ.....

237 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:35:11pm

re: #235 Dark_Falcon

Eh?

Did you not watch that video? The one to which you replied?

238 Varek Raith  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:35:45pm

re: #229 Dark_Falcon

That sort of reaction will cost her. It looks as disrespectful as it was.

Not as disrespectful as Scott has been to her and her family.
Or his staffers.

Youtube Video
239 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:36:12pm

re: #237 recusancy

Did you not watch that video? The one to which you replied?

It was a GIF and there was no sound.

240 Iwouldprefernotto  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:36:49pm

re: #219 Dark_Falcon

Massive Decline = Massive FAIL

Did you see the source of the post?

241 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:36:55pm

re: #232 recusancy

What do you think about him saying he likes Sotomayor?

And btw... How is smiling and pushing your glasses back on your nose disrespectful?

242 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:37:04pm

re: #127 Dark_Falcon

A recount that had become a case of grasping at straws and that needed to be brought to an end soon if Florida's electoral votes were to be counted.

Maybe in those circumstances, Florida's electoral votes shouldn't have been counted, and the election should've gone to the House, as the Founding Fathers intended, instead of being decided by a court.

243 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:37:39pm

re: #239 Dark_Falcon

It was a GIF and there was no sound.

There was another link there:

Youtube Video
244 The Ghost of a Flea  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:38:15pm

Hey now. Scott Brown is just participating in a venerable traditions of white males telling everyone else what race they are, while his supporters are creating hi-larious caricatures of said races to jollify the day of other white people. Who could possibly object to that?

245 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:38:59pm

re: #241 recusancy

And btw... How is smiling and pushing your glasses back on your nose disrespectful?

If it were me, the middle finger would've been used to push those glasses back...
//

246 BishopX  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:41:35pm

re: #245 Reverend Mother Ramallo

I do that all the time, probably just a masshole thing..

247 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:41:41pm

From the fake Jennifer Rubin Twitter account:

lulz

248 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:41:50pm

re: #245 Reverend Mother Ramallo

If it were me, the middle finger would've been used to push those glasses back...
//

The tomahawk/war whoop stuff was just too far.
Brown deserves no respect.

249 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:41:55pm

And Tony Romo passes on 3rd and 9... right to bears Cornerback Charles Tillman, who returns the interception for a touchdown. Bears lead 10-0.

250 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:42:17pm

re: #104 Dark_Falcon

That wasn't the ruling. The Supreme Court ruled that any further recount had to be completed by the 'safe harbor' date specified under federal election law.

As it happened, the ruling did not matter much anyways: A recount after the ruling by news organizations found that George W. Bush won based on all valid ballots (those ballots where more than 1 presidential candidate was voted for did not count).

Your side caught a big break on the butterfly ballots, where hundreds of people (possibly more than Bush's winning margin) voted for Buchanan rather than Gore. All water under the bridge now, of course, but the election couldn't have been much closer...and the idea that we can determine a "real" winner in a state so close and so fucked up in its election counting is a fantasy.

251 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:42:24pm

re: #246 BishopX

I do that all the time, probably just a masshole thing..

Heh.
Me too.

252 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:43:44pm

re: #243 recusancy

There was another link there:

[Embedded content]

He was right about Sotomayor. I don't agree with her, but she is qualified for the seat on the court she holds.

253 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:44:29pm
254 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:44:58pm

re: #247 JamesWI

From the fake Jennifer Rubin Twitter account:

[Embedded content]

lulz

Why don't we hear from the right that "at least Obama has kept us safe?"

By 2008, the only defense the gop had for Bush was he kept us safe and gave money to Africa for AIDS (as if anyone else in the party cared about that). Then they decided to, in Orwellian fashion, write him out of the recent history of the nation. If you don't say his name, he never existed.

255 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:45:16pm

re: #252 Dark_Falcon

He was right about Sotomayor. I don't agree with her, but she is qualified for the seat on the court she holds.

The question wasn't who's qualified. It's who's your model justice.

256 Targetpractice  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:45:31pm

re: #253 jaunte

[Embedded content]

In which case, it goes to the House, meaning hello President Romney.

257 BishopX  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:45:56pm

In other new, Glenn Beck is claiming something awful is a CIA front...

[Link: www.gameranx.com...]

Here's one that even The Onion would reject as too blatantly ridiculous: American right-wing radio and TV clown Glenn Beck believes that Sean Smith aka Vile Rat, the EVE Online diplomat who was killed earlier this month during the attack on the US embassy in Benghazi, was actually a CIA agent, relaying communications to his fellow undercover agents at Something Awful.

Deliberately not linking to Mr. Beck's website.

258 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:46:12pm

re: #254 palomino

Why don't we hear from the right that "at least Obama has kept us safe?"

By 2008, the only defense the gop had for Bush was he kept us safe and gave money to Africa for AIDS (as if anyone else in the party cared about that). Then they decided to, in Orwellian fashion, write him out of the recent history of the nation. If you don't say his name, he never existed.

BUT OUR EMBASSY IN LIBYA WAS ATTACKED!!!! (Ignore all the embassy attacks under Bush's watch, which probably don't include all the times the Green Zone was attacked in Iraq)

259 BongCrodny  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:46:32pm

re: #253 jaunte

[Embedded content]

Fun simulation today: Obama loses OH, but wins FL, but loses ME 2nd district. 269-269 tie.

Given that the House of Representatives would break a tie, that doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun to me.

260 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:46:42pm

re: #252 Dark_Falcon

He was right about Sotomayor. I don't agree with her, but she is qualified for the seat on the court she holds.

The crowd wasn't happy with is initial Scalia answer. He definitely lost that round, came off as a scrambling, insincere little weasel.

261 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:46:43pm

re: #250 palomino

Your side caught a big break on the butterfly ballots, where hundreds of people (possibly more than Bush's winning margin) voted for Buchanan rather than Gore. All water under the bridge now, of course, but the election couldn't have been much closer...and the idea that we can determine a "real" winner in a state so close and so fucked up in its election counting is a fantasy.

That's likely true. That butterfly ballot was a likely decisive 'own goal' for the Democrats of Broward County who designed it. But should a measure of fault be assigned as well to the voters for not reading the ballot carefully enough and misvoting? I'm not saying it should, I want to know what you think.

262 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:47:54pm

re: #259 BongCrodny

Given that the House of Representatives would break a tie, that doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun to me.

That scenario likely ends with Mitt Romney as President, with Joe Biden possibly being his VP.

263 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:49:22pm

re: #259 BongCrodny

Given that the House of Representatives would break a tie, that doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun to me.

His scenario requires Obama to lose basically every toss-up state other than Florida and New Hampshire. Including Wisconsin, which isn't even considered a toss-up anymore by most outlets. Safe to say, that probably isn't a likely situation.

264 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:49:43pm

re: #241 recusancy

And btw... How is smiling and pushing your glasses back on your nose disrespectful?

chick did it to her republican senior.

im out have a productive nite!

265 BishopX  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:50:18pm

re: #262 Dark_Falcon

I'd say it would really come down to the popular vote, if either candidate won the popular vote (by a clear percentage point at least) and congress acted the other way...things would get nasty.

266 Targetpractice  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:51:09pm

re: #263 JamesWI

His scenario requires Obama to lose basically every toss-up state other than Florida and New Hampshire. Including Wisconsin, which isn't even considered a toss-up anymore by most outlets. Safe to say, that probably isn't a likely situation.

It's Nate having fun at this point, considering his models currently give Obama a better than 80% chance of winning. If Romney can't make some magic happen on Wednesday, then that'll be all she wrote.

267 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:51:25pm

re: #265 BishopX

I'd say it would really come down to the popular vote, if either candidate won the popular vote (by a clear percentage point at least) and congress acted the other way...things would get nasty.

You think House Republicans would care what the people want?

Oh, you silly thing....../

268 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:52:46pm

re: #266 Targetpractice

It's Nate having fun at this point, considering his models currently give Obama a better than 80% chance of winning. If Romney can't make some magic happen on Wednesday, then that'll be all she wrote.

Yeah, I actually came up with basically the same scenario here a couple weeks ago, playing around with RealClearPolitics' electoral map. Of course, that was back when it still seemed POSSIBLE that Romney could win Wisconsin without a massive implosion by Obama.

269 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:53:11pm

re: #266 Targetpractice

It's Nate having fun at this point, considering his models currently give Obama a better than 80% chance of winning. If Romney can't make some magic happen on Wednesday, then that'll be all she wrote.

Pretty much. His real models are all pointing at Obama winning a second term.

This new scenario sounds like the stats equivalent of predicting a route to the World Series for the Astros. =P

270 Interesting Times  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:53:22pm

Oh look, war criminal is also a misogynist creep:

The congressman proceeds tells his wife he expects certain intimate acts upon his return that will be “the standard and it is non-negotiable.”

...Then: “Angela, I need to know, are you committed to being my porn star?

“I do not want to hear ‘no’ or ‘we’ll see about that.’ I want my fantasies to be with you. God has authorized you and you only as my partner for intimacy and that is what I want.”

271 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:53:27pm

re: #253 jaunte

[Embedded content]

Interesting but Obama also has to lose NV, CO and VA for that scenario to play out. Also, since Nate lists his chances of taking FL at 20 points lower than his chances of taking WI, 16 points lower than OH and 8 points lower than VA it's a strain to see how he wins Florida but loses those three.

272 jaunte  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:54:42pm

More Nate Silver:

Romney Down a Touchdown?
"...If you look at our estimate of Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, which are about 15 percent right now in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, the touchdown analogy works best: Mr. Romney has about as much chance of winning as an N.F.L. team does when it trails by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter."

273 bratwurst  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:55:33pm

My (admittedly far-fetched) dream is that Obama loses the popular vote but wins in the Electoral College...maybe we can finally kill the thing off once and for all.

274 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:56:24pm

re: #272 jaunte

More Nate Silver:

Romney Down a Touchdown?
"...If you look at our estimate of Mitt Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, which are about 15 percent right now in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, the touchdown analogy works best: Mr. Romney has about as much chance of winning as an N.F.L. team does when it trails by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter."

I grew up with the Cleveland Browns.
To my eyes, that reads Mitt is boned.

275 lostlakehiker  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:56:26pm

New Scientist writes that the election is pretty much in the bag for Obama. One doesn't even need to know about the gaffe-track or who said what or how the polls read. One needs only know whether or not unemployment has been rising or falling recently, and a few other key stats. These are stats that an incumbent can control for long enough to secure the win, even if the underlying trend is bad. When the underlying trend is flat, that's good enough to secure the election for the incumbent.

Romney will get about 150 electoral votes, and that will be that.

276 goddamnedfrank  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:56:42pm

re: #273 bratwurst

My (admitted far-fetched) dream is that Obama loses the popular vote but wins in the Electoral College...maybe we can finally kill the thing off once and for all.

That's a recipe for four hellish years of right wing terrorism.

277 BishopX  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:57:29pm

re: #275 lostlakehiker

I'm favoriting your post so I can look back on it in November and see how you did.

278 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:57:41pm

re: #274 Reverend Mother Ramallo

I grew up with the Cleveland Browns.
To my eyes, that reads Mitt is boned.

Well, not if he's a team down by a touchdown....against the Cleveland Browns. That makes a Romney win seem much more likely.

279 bratwurst  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:58:50pm

re: #276 goddamnedfrank

That's a recipe for four hellish years of right wing terrorism.

Eh, you might be right. Killing off the antiquated Electoral College probably wouldn't be enough of a payoff to tolerate everything else that would go along with that scenario. Oh well, it is even less likely than what Silver painted for fun tonight in any case.

280 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:59:42pm

re: #267 JamesWI

You think House Republicans would care what the people want?

Oh, you silly thing....../

No, they wouldn't care. They'd stand on their side and put their man in. Democrats would do likewise. Congresspeople would vote their party line, with the will of John Q. Public a distinct secondary concern.

281 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 6:59:42pm

re: #278 JamesWI

Well, not if he's a team down by a touchdown....against the Cleveland Browns. That makes a Romney win seem much more likely.

{{sigh}}
yeah

282 danarchy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:00:36pm

re: #266 Targetpractice

It's Nate having fun at this point, considering his models currently give Obama a better than 80% chance of winning. If Romney can't make some magic happen on Wednesday, then that'll be all she wrote.

Most likely it is all over. I still think if there is a bad jobs report friday it has the potential to have more of an impact than the debates.

I read these two articles back to back and if there is an obvious downturn by election day I think that is the best chance Romney has at this point.

Robert Reich on jobs report

Are we already in another recession?

283 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:01:10pm

re: #171 Lidane

That's not a caveat. That's Statistics 101.

The only people who are polled are the people who agree to be polled. And it is assumed by the statisticians that the answers are honest because those answers are the only ones they've got to go on.

Nate Silver just did an article on whether polls have historically shown bias towards either Republicans or Democrats. The polls are usually off a little bit, sometimes they are off a lot, but there's no evidence of a consistent Democratic or GOP bias. Silver has also stated that the Bradley effect has faded. So there is no reason to think lying is skewing the polls; liars are likely, for the most part, to cancel each other out.

284 Targetpractice  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:01:15pm

re: #269 Lidane

Pretty much. His real models are all pointing at Obama winning a second term.

This new scenario sounds like the stats equivalent of predicting a route to the World Series for the Astros. =P

Wednesday is Romney's last chance to make a breakout. Obama goes into it with a few advantages: 1) he doesn't need to win the debate, just avoid major gaffes, 2) he's leading in the polls, which means he can afford to have a less than stellar performance, and 3) the pundits who will no doubt be declaring within minutes of the debates end that Willard "held his own" don't get the final word.

285 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:01:44pm
286 lostlakehiker  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:02:57pm

re: #250 palomino

Your side caught a big break on the butterfly ballots, where hundreds of people (possibly more than Bush's winning margin) voted for Buchanan rather than Gore. All water under the bridge now, of course, but the election couldn't have been much closer...and the idea that we can determine a "real" winner in a state so close and so fucked up in its election counting is a fantasy.

There were many swings in that election. When national network news went on air at 7PM central time and announced that the polls had closed in FLA and that Gore had carried the state, thousands of voters standing in line in Pensacola gave up and went home. Others didn't go to vote. This, even though in reality it was 6 PM central time zone, and the FLA panhandle is on central time, and the race was as close as they come.

That was a "goal" scored by Democrats. All perfectly fair and legal, under the anything goes rules of politics. Who would have won if those voters had stuck it out? Who would have won if Ms. McGillicuddy's cow hadn't kicked over the lantern? There's just no way to say.

We have to live with these things, because we have to live with each other once the election is over. The Electoral College is, among other things, a system for amplifying very small swings of chance into the appearance of finality and convincing victory. And that's how we should want it. In politics, the appearance is a reality of its own.

287 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:03:40pm

re: #178 Dark_Falcon

so part of Bristol Palin's prep for this week's

involved taking her partner Mark Ballas to a indoor gun range and target shooting there with a shotgun. She used her prep segement to openly proclaim herself to be a "redneck". I don't know what to do with this one, folks can mock it as they see fit.

The Palin's are parodies of themselves; how can you mock a self-mockery?

288 danarchy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:04:58pm

re: #275 lostlakehiker

.Romney will get about 150 electoral votes, and that will be that.

150 is a little low. Even if he takes just what mccain did plus indiana he gets almost 200, and I think he probably at least take NC too.

289 Ojoe  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:05:48pm

re: #224 Amory Blaine

I find to be for a "side" to be the more exhausting.

290 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:09:50pm

re: #275 lostlakehiker

Romney will get about 150 electoral votes, and that will be that.

If he only gets 150, that means he loses some of the reliable red states. If that happens, expect open war in the GOP for the direction of the party.

Most models have Romney starting off with 191 electoral votes. Problem is, they don't show him gaining much beyond that, if he gains anything at all. By contrast, Obama starts with something like 233 electoral votes from reliable blue states, so his route to re-election is much shorter than Romney's is to winning.

291 William Barnett-Lewis  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:10:11pm

re: #178 Dark_Falcon

so part of Bristol Palin's prep for this week's

involved taking her partner Mark Ballas to a indoor gun range and target shooting there with a shotgun. She used her prep segement to openly proclaim herself to be a "redneck". I don't know what to do with this one, folks can mock it as they see fit.

Well, can she at least shoot better than her mother? That should be low enough expectations...

As for red neck, well, I doubt they understand the UMW origin of the phrase and the red kerchief around the neck...

292 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:10:49pm

re: #286 lostlakehiker

There were many swings in that election. When national network news went on air at 7PM central time and announced that the polls had closed in FLA and that Gore had carried the state, thousands of voters standing in line in Pensacola gave up and went home. Others didn't go to vote. This, even though in reality it was 6 PM central time zone, and the FLA panhandle is on central time, and the race was as close as they come.

That was a "goal" scored by Democrats. All perfectly fair and legal, under the anything goes rules of politics. Who would have won if those voters had stuck it out? Who would have won if Ms. McGillicuddy's cow hadn't kicked over the lantern? There's just no way to say.

We have to live with these things, because we have to live with each other once the election is over. The Electoral College is, among other things, a system for amplifying very small swings of chance into the appearance of finality and convincing victory. And that's how we should want it. In politics, the appearance is a reality of its own.

Yes, the butterfly ballot did indeed make for a "hot time in the old town tonight" in Ft. Lauderdale. ;)

293 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:11:07pm
294 Targetpractice  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:11:22pm

re: #288 danarchy

150 is a little low. Even if he takes just what mccain did plus indiana he gets almost 200, and I think he probably at least take NC too.

Silver's model currently has him set to win 217, which is better than McCain's performance, but still well short of the finish line. Expect to hear a lot of wingnuts in the days after the Election screaming that this is "proof" that Obama doesn't have a "mandate."

295 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:11:25pm

re: #291 William Barnett-Lewis

Well, can she at least shoot better than her mother? That should be low enough expectations...

As for red neck, well, I doubt they understand the UMW origin of the phrase and the red kerchief around the neck...

Explain, if you will.

296 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:11:41pm

re: #136 Dark_Falcon

Al gore lost Florida, folks. Whatever recount was done, given Florida's laws discounting 'overvotes' George W. Bush clearly won, though its true he didn't win by much.

You sure about that? Throw up a link for us. Back up your case. I don't think post-election investigations can reveal any definitive answer due to the difficulty in counting ballots that are screwed up to begin with, as well as problems with butterfly ballots, where voters .

One thing you can't deny is that your winner got 600,000 fewer votes nationally than the loser. One more reason to ditch the Electoral College. Voters who live in CA, TX, IL, etc. deserve to be courted as much as those in FL, OH and just 6 other states.

297 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:12:10pm
298 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:13:03pm

Cutler to Hester TD!

299 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:16:36pm

re: #253 jaunte

[Embedded content]

Romney can also get to 269 by winning Nv, Co, Ia, Fla, NC, Va while losing Oh and NH. Then the House would probably elect him President. In fact the President is at 269 now on the RCP electoral map.

300 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:16:38pm

re: #296 palomino

You sure about that? Throw up a link for us. Back up your case. I don't think post-election investigations can reveal any definitive answer due to the difficulty in counting ballots that are screwed up to begin with, as well as problems with butterfly ballots, where voters .

One thing you can't deny is that your winner got 600,000 fewer votes nationally than the loser. One more reason to ditch the Electoral College. Voters who live in CA, TX, IL, etc. deserve to be courted as much as those in FL, OH and just 6 other states.

No. I'm done arguing that topic tonight. All I got is a downding barrage and I've got no interest in more of it.

301 Lidane  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:17:38pm

Heh:

302 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:18:36pm

re: #261 Dark_Falcon

That's likely true. That butterfly ballot was a likely decisive 'own goal' for the Democrats of Broward County who designed it. But should a measure of fault be assigned as well to the voters for not reading the ballot carefully enough and misvoting? I'm not saying it should, I want to know what you think.

A lot of them were elderly. The people designing a ballot ought to make it so that you can easily cast your vote for the person you intended to. Its not rocket science.

303 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:19:43pm

re: #265 BishopX

I'd say it would really come down to the popular vote, if either candidate won the popular vote (by a clear percentage point at least) and congress acted the other way...things would get nasty.

You don't really think House Republicans would vote for the President just because he got the most votes, do you?

304 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:21:49pm

re: #261 Dark_Falcon

That's likely true. That butterfly ballot was a likely decisive 'own goal' for the Democrats of Broward County who designed it. But should a measure of fault be assigned as well to the voters for not reading the ballot carefully enough and misvoting? I'm not saying it should, I want to know what you think.

The ballot designers really screwed up badly, so I don't think it's really fair to blame the voters. Very few, if any, other counties in the whole country had such a problem. So I'd blame it more on the ballot than the voters, who I doubt are significantly dumber than voters in the rest of the country. But many elderly voters did have a problem due to eyesight, and their understandable expectation that putting an X next to Gore's name meant they were voting for Gore.

305 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:22:45pm

re: #304 palomino

The ballot designers really screwed up badly, so I don't think it's really fair to blame the voters. Very few, if any, other counties in the whole country had such a problem. So I'd blame it more on the ballot than the voters, who I doubt are significantly dumber than voters in the rest of the country. But many elderly voters did have a problem due to eyesight, and their understandable expectation that putting an X next to Gore's name meant they were voting for Gore.

He means the ballot designers were democrats. He's not blaming the voters.

306 William Barnett-Lewis  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:27:16pm

re: #295 Dark_Falcon

Explain, if you will.

Strikers wore red kerchiefs, usually around the neck, sometimes tied to their limbs to distinguish themselves from the scabs. This lead to the bosses referring to union men, derogatorily, as red necks. The term already existed in reference to poor white farmers but was no where near as derogatory as it later became. The shift to how it is now used didn't happen till the 70's. The recent efforts to make it a badge of "conservative" honor neatly ignores this Socialist "Red Flag" usage.

307 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:27:55pm

re: #305 recusancy

He means the ballot designers were democrats. He's not blaming the voters.

no, I was wondering if blaming the voters in part was appropriate, and the consensus is 'no'. I admit to gloating a little because the ballots was designed by Democrats, but I'd say a ballot that bad was a screw-up if Republicans had designed it too.

308 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:30:44pm

re: #296 palomino

You sure about that? Throw up a link for us. Back up your case. I don't think post-election investigations can reveal any definitive answer due to the difficulty in counting ballots that are screwed up to begin with, as well as problems with butterfly ballots, where voters .

One thing you can't deny is that your winner got 600,000 fewer votes nationally than the loser. One more reason to ditch the Electoral College. Voters who live in CA, TX, IL, etc. deserve to be courted as much as those in FL, OH and just 6 other states.

Supposedly the electoral college gives small states a little more leverage. But the fact is that most small states are pretty certain to vote one way or another, so the candidates can safely ignore almost all of them. In a national election, the candidates would have to go where the voters are, so Ca, Tx and NY could no longer be safely ignored. But because ad time is cheaper in smaller markets, you could also get a lot of bang for your buck in small state metropolitan areas. A popular vote election should produce strong GOTV efforts by both parties almost everywhere.

309 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:32:37pm

Dueling QB forced fumbles end in a 70+ yard TD by Bears linebacker Lance Briggs. Bears lead the Cowboys 24-7.

310 Eventual Carrion  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:33:38pm

re: #309 Dark_Falcon

Dueling QB forced fumbles end in a 70+ yard TD by Bears linebacker Lance Briggs. Bears lead the Cowboys 24-7.

I had just flipped back to the game at the start of that play.

311 aagcobb  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:34:51pm

re: #309 Dark_Falcon

Dueling QB forced fumbles end in a 70+ yard TD by Bears linebacker Lance Briggs. Bears lead the Cowboys 24-7.

I just need Miles Austin to stay out of the endzone. My fantasy team is clinging to a seven point lead.

312 recusancy  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:35:57pm

re: #311 aagcobb

I just need Miles Austin to stay out of the endzone. My fantasy team is clinging to a seven point lead.

I need him in the end zone.. But he's already been there once tonight so I'm good.

313 William Barnett-Lewis  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:36:19pm

Be interesting to see if it's the Bears or the Vikings that win the division. GB barely handled the Saints yesterday and they can't ride Rodger's arm forever. But the Vikings are playing very good right now.

Yes, interesting is a good word for those two games... ;)

314 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:37:07pm

re: #311 aagcobb

I just need Miles Austin to stay out of the endzone. My fantasy team is clinging to a seven point lead.

Works for me and the Bears secondary will work to fulfill your wish.

315 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:37:25pm

re: #300 Dark_Falcon

No. I'm done arguing that topic tonight. All I got is a downding barrage and I've got no interest in more of it.

That's the way to not give it the old college try.

316 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:39:02pm

re: #315 palomino

That's the way to not give it the old college try.

I'm older than I was in college and the pile-on effect discourages tries 'against the grain of the group'.

317 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:41:24pm

re: #286 lostlakehiker

There were many swings in that election. When national network news went on air at 7PM central time and announced that the polls had closed in FLA and that Gore had carried the state, thousands of voters standing in line in Pensacola gave up and went home. Others didn't go to vote. This, even though in reality it was 6 PM central time zone, and the FLA panhandle is on central time, and the race was as close as they come.

That was a "goal" scored by Democrats. All perfectly fair and legal, under the anything goes rules of politics. Who would have won if those voters had stuck it out? Who would have won if Ms. McGillicuddy's cow hadn't kicked over the lantern? There's just no way to say.

We have to live with these things, because we have to live with each other once the election is over. The Electoral College is, among other things, a system for amplifying very small swings of chance into the appearance of finality and convincing victory. And that's how we should want it. In politics, the appearance is a reality of its own.

The ultimate inability to discern a true victor was my original point.

As for the EC, it's a joke. It encourages pols to campaign in only a few states, and sometimes gives us winners with fewer total votes (Bush with 600,000 less votes). Might be nice if all our votes counted, not just the 15% of the population that happens to live in a swing state.

318 JamesWI  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:43:09pm

re: #311 aagcobb

I just need Miles Austin to stay out of the endzone. My fantasy team is clinging to a seven point lead.

I went into tonight 15 points up. Me with Jason Witten, my opponent with Brandon Marshall and the Bears defense.

Even when I don't make the mistake of drafting Tony Romo, he still manages to cost me games.

319 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:44:02pm

re: #317 palomino

The ultimate inability to discern a true victor was my original point.

So then did the cow not actually kick over the lantern, as is now believed to have been the case in Chicago?

/Sorry, but the 'cow kicking over the lantern' was irresistible to me.

320 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:46:09pm

re: #316 Dark_Falcon

I'm older than I was in college and the pile-on effect discourages tries 'against the grain of the group'.

Tensions tend to run high during election time.

And I think you're perceptive and smart enough to recognize that, even if Romney can pull a miracle out of his ass, the gop's future prospects are on the decline, due to--among other things--demographics, religious extremism, general revanchism, and, as Sen. Graham said, an "inability to create enough angry old white men."

321 William Barnett-Lewis  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:47:20pm

Good night all.

322 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 7:54:05pm

re: #275 lostlakehiker

New Scientist writes that the election is pretty much in the bag for Obama. One doesn't even need to know about the gaffe-track or who said what or how the polls read. One needs only know whether or not unemployment has been rising or falling recently, and a few other key stats. These are stats that an incumbent can control for long enough to secure the win, even if the underlying trend is bad. When the underlying trend is flat, that's good enough to secure the election for the incumbent.

Romney will get about 150 electoral votes, and that will be that.

Hope you're right, but 150 seems really low. Too many solid red states for Mitt to stay at 150. Give him IN and MO plus the McCain states and he's over 200. Besides MO, McCain's winning margins were all fairly significant. And the undecided portion of the electorate is even smaller than usual, the result of further polarization.

323 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:00:53pm

re: #311 aagcobb

I just need Miles Austin to stay out of the endzone. My fantasy team is clinging to a seven point lead.

Rubbish! I have Austin and I'm dying here. I've scored the 2nd most points in a 12-team league this week and I'm still losing. Terrible. Austin needs to catch all the passes.

324 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:02:40pm

re: #323 The Mongoose

Rubbish! I have Austin and I'm dying here. I've scored the 2nd most points in a 12-team league this week and I'm still losing. Terrible. Austin needs to catch all the passes.

He won't, not the way the Bears defense is playing.

325 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:03:12pm

re: #324 Dark_Falcon

He won't, not the way the Bears defense is playing.

Sigh. I know.

326 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:04:59pm

re: #325 The Mongoose

Sigh. I know.

Sorry, but how the Bears do will always take priority in my mind over any fantasy teams.

327 The Mongoose  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:05:35pm

re: #326 Dark_Falcon

Sorry, but how the Bears do will always take priority in my mind over any fantasy teams.

I will take solace in the fact that I have hate for the Cowbows generally.

328 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:07:28pm

re: #319 Dark_Falcon

So then did the cow not actually kick over the lantern, as is now believed to have been the case in Chicago?

/Sorry, but the 'cow kicking over the lantern' was irresistible to me.

I guess it must help to be a Chicagoan to get the "joke."

329 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 8:24:32pm

re: #328 palomino

I guess it must help to be a Chicagoan to get the "joke."

It's a reference to the legend of Mrs. O'Leary's cow kicking over a lantern to start the Great Chicago Fire in 1871. The "hot time" reference is to an old song that was adapted to the legend, a adaptation I learned in grade school:

"Late one night
When the kids were all in bed,
Mrs. O'Leary hung a lantern on her shed.
And when the cow kicked it over,
she winked her eye and said,
"It's gonna be a hot time in the old town tonight!"

330 Destro  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 9:05:59pm

re: #100 palomino

Lose?

That happened at least 4 years ago, when the Kenyan usurping dictator moved into the WH.

Imagine how much more entertaining it will be when they lose a second time? (with hopes their nutso behavior does not lead to violence).

331 palomino  Mon, Oct 1, 2012 10:02:36pm

re: #329 Dark_Falcon

It's a reference to the legend of Mrs. O'Leary's cow kicking over a lantern to start the Great Chicago Fire in 1871. The "hot time" reference is to an old song that was adapted to the legend, a adaptation I learned in grade school:

"Late one night
When the kids were all in bed,
Mrs. O'Leary hung a lantern on her shed.
And when the cow kicked it over,
she winked her eye and said,
"It's gonna be a hot time in the old town tonight!"

Of course I know about Mrs O'Leary's cow. I just don't think it's funny.


This article has been archived.
Comments are closed.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2023-04-04 11:11 am PDT LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal Cash.app
Recent PagesClick to refresh
Texas County at Center of Border Fight Is Overwhelmed by Migrant Deaths EAGLE PASS, Tex. - The undertaker lighted a cigarette and held it between his latex-gloved fingers as he stood over the bloated body bag lying in the bed of his battered pickup truck. The woman had been fished out ...
Cheechako
Yesterday
Views: 87 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0