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1 AK-47%  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:54:06am

Sesame Street is all about the 47%

2 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:54:31am

Anyone who says, "sucking at the public teat..."
should be kicked in the nuts.

3 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:55:18am

Fair and Balanced

4 Interesting Times  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:55:57am

Seriously, watch the whole segment. LOL@ birther Lou Dobbs who can't do math either. Aren't you proud, CNN, for giving him and Glenn Beck their big breaks? 9_9

5 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:56:47am

re: #3 JamesWI

Fair and Balanced

[Embedded content]

They don't even try anymore. Really Minnesota?

6 A Mom Anon  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:58:46am

It won't play for me,boohiss. I'll go look for it and watch.

7 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:58:47am

re: #3 JamesWI

Fair and Balanced

[Embedded content]

Did Dick Morris make that map? You know it's really terrible the way that FOX exploits their viewers and sets them up for failure.

I'd feel sorry for them if I weren't sure they are mostly a bunch of hateful old bigots.

8 abolitionist  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:59:04am

"Patriot Street is brought to you by the number Miller Beer."

9 Charles Johnson  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:59:17am

re: #3 JamesWI

Wow, Fox News, not trying to hide anything any more.

10 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:59:49am

re: #7 moderatelyradicalliberal

Did Dick Morris make that map? You know it's really terrible the way that FOX exploits their viewers and sets them up for failure.

I'd feel sorry for them if I weren't sure they are mostly a bunch of hateful old bigots.

I feel bad for them because they actually think people like Hannity and Limbaugh give a crap about them when in reality guys like that only care about exploiting their fear and bigotry.

11 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 10:59:52am

re: #5 HappyWarrior

They don't even try anymore. Really Minnesota?

They are doing it again. They take a "win" and go overboard. No matter what they give us a reason to point and laugh.

12 Amory Blaine  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:00:20am

re: #2 Reverend Mother Ramallo

Anyone who says, "sucking at the public teat..."
should be kicked in the nuts.

Ann Coulter included.

13 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:01:31am

re: #11 moderatelyradicalliberal

They are doing it again. They take a "win" and go overboard. No matter what they give us a reason to point and laugh.

Really. There's no doubt that Romney gained in the polls after the debate but yeah there's no way Romney wins like that if he wins. If Romney wins, it's going to be by one or two states.

14 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:02:46am

re: #5 HappyWarrior

They don't even try anymore. Really Minnesota?

Yeah, Minnesota is a big WTF.

If the election were held today, in the middle of the Romney bounce, there's a good chance he'd win...but even if it was and even he did, there's no way Minnesota would flip.

15 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:04:14am

Also, where are they getting Pennsylvania from? The last poll I saw there was a shock...Obama up only 2...but no one is showing Romney ahead there.

16 Gus  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:04:33am

Pissed off now. BBL

17 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:04:37am

re: #14 The Mongoose

Yeah, Minnesota is a big WTF.

If the election were held today, in the middle of the Romney bounce, there's a good chance he'd win...but even if it was and even he did, there's not Minnesota would flip before Wisconsin. That map is fairly silly.

Exactly. Weird how they had Minnesota going to Romney but Nevada going to Obama though.

18 Amory Blaine  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:04:45am

re: #3 JamesWI

Fair and Balanced

[Embedded content]

Baghdad Bob get a new job?

19 A Mom Anon  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:05:23am

Che Grovera,bwahahaha!!

20 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:05:25am

In other news: Romney leads in the RealClearPolitics national average for the first time since winning the nomination: [Link: www.realclearpolitics.com...]

21 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:06:01am

re: #10 HappyWarrior

I feel bad for them because they actually think people like Hannity and Limbaugh give a crap about them when in reality guys like that only care about exploiting their fear and bigotry.

Which couldn't be done if the fear and bigotry wasn't there. I'm sorry, but these people have had longer then I've been alive to get over their hatred and fear of the other. They could be happy about living in a country where you can buy tacos with kim chi on them and soul food shacks that sell tamales, but they have chosen to miserable about it.

Fuck them. If my grandparents can forgive and not dwell in the past they could move the fuck on too. Especially when nobody did a god damn thing to hurt them. Everybody has given their own blood, sweat and tears to this country and we'd be a much better place if FOX New's core audience didn't think they were the only real Americans.

22 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:07:25am

re: #20 The Mongoose

In other news: Romney leads in the RealClearPolitics national average for the first time since winning the nomination: [Link: www.realclearpolitics.com...]

I wonder why they say this latest Gallup poll is "more recent" than the post-debate poll.....when yesterday's poll somehow wasn't? Oh, that's because it fit's their story.

23 Amory Blaine  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:07:29am

"Do The Paul Ryan": Music Video

Youtube Video
24 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:08:42am

re: #14 The Mongoose

Yeah, Minnesota is a big WTF.

If the election were held today, in the middle of the Romney bounce, there's a good chance he'd win...but even if it was and even he did, there's no way Minnesota would flip.

Actually, no he wouldn't and that's what's funny. Romney's bounce is with Republicans who were going to vote for him anyway. That map is ridiculous because Obama is still ahead and every swing state, but NC which is tied. If the election were held today Obama would win about 320 EC votes. Not even close to Romney winning.

25 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:11:13am

re: #22 JamesWI

I wonder why they say this latest Gallup poll is "more recent" than the post-debate poll.....when yesterday's poll somehow wasn't? Oh, that's because it fit's their story.

I'm not sure about that. Gallup released 2 sets of numbers yesterday and RCP had both up for a while...today I'm only seeing one release on Gallup's site. If that's the case, RCP is just going with what Gallup gives them.

26 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:11:44am

re: #16 Gus

Pissed off now. BBL

Sorry.
But when your family has to flee the south with small children because they feared for their life, your perspective changes.
All I meant was that there is real danger there.

27 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:11:49am

re: #17 HappyWarrior

Exactly. Weird how they had Minnesota going to Romney but Nevada going to Obama though.

Romney is not going to win New Mexico or Iowa or PA. That map is ridiculous. It looks like the 2008 Dick Morris map that has Obama winning TN and AR. Alternative reality crazy.

28 Charles Johnson  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:12:21am

re: #20 The Mongoose

RealClearPolitics is really, clearly biased. It's a right wing news outlet, and they've been cherry-picking polls they like and ignoring the ones they don't.

I wouldn't get too excited about anything you see at RealClearPolitics.

29 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:12:44am

re: #24 moderatelyradicalliberal

Actually, no he wouldn't and that's what's funny. Romney's bounce is with Republicans who were going to vote for him anyway. That map is ridiculous because Obama is still ahead and every swing state, but NC which is tied. If the election were held today Obama would win about 320 EC votes. Not even close to Romney winning.

I prefer to speak in terms of probabilities when there's no way to prove it one way or the other. If you're saying there is no realistic chance Mr. Romney would win today, then I completely disagree. I do think there are lots of opportunities for president Obama to reverse the current trend.

30 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:13:40am

re: #26 Reverend Mother Ramallo

Sorry.
But when your family has to flee the south with small children because they feared for their life, your perspective changes.
All I meant was that there is real danger there.

No MBF.

31 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:13:54am

re: #21 moderatelyradicalliberal

Which couldn't be done if the fear and bigotry wasn't there. I'm sorry, but these people have had longer then I've been alive to get over their hatred and fear of the other. They could be happy about living in a country where you can buy tacos with kim chi on them and soul food shacks that sell tamales, but they have chosen to miserable about it.

Fuck them. If my grandparents can forgive and not dwell in the past they could move the fuck on too. Especially when nobody did a god damn thing to hurt them. Everybody has given their own blood, sweat and tears to this country and we'd be a much better place if FOX New's core audience didn't think they were the only real Americans.

I was kidding around. I actually don't feel that bad for them especially because they choose to believe the bullshit.

32 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:15:03am

re: #28 Charles Johnson

RealClearPolitics is really, clearly biased. It's a right wing news outlet, and they've been cherry-picking polls they like and ignoring the ones they don't.

I wouldn't get too excited about anything you see at RealClearPolitics.

I'm not. The likely voter he samples look like the electorate in 1980. If R-Money only looks like he's winning by a couple of points with Ronald Reagan's electorate he's actually in pretty bad shape.

33 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:15:59am

re: #31 HappyWarrior

I was kidding around. I actually don't feel that bad for them especially because they choose to believe the bullshit.

Oh, sorry. I guess my snark meter was off.

34 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:16:47am

re: #28 Charles Johnson

RealClearPolitics is really, clearly biased. It's a right wing news outlet, and they've been cherry-picking polls they like and ignoring the ones they don't.

I wouldn't get too excited about anything you see at RealClearPolitics.

RCP does tend to have a right-leaning bias in the articles they choose, though they do showcase lots of liberal/Democratic opinion as well, which is part of why I like the site so much.

I haven't seen any evidence of cherry picking in their poll selection but have wondered why certain polls don't get in...for example there is an Ipsos tracking poll that never gets reported, and I believe a Rand poll as well. But they posted the O+8 Pew poll that I scoffed at, and now they've posted the R+4 Pew poll that I'm also skeptical of. They seem to be consistent.

35 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:17:06am

re: #32 moderatelyradicalliberal

I'm not. The likely voter he samples look like the electorate in 1980. If R-Money only looks like he's winning by a couple of points with Ronald Reagan's electorate he's actually in pretty bad shape.

To me, that's part of their problem and why they have struggled in national elections since demographics have changed. They hold out a delusion that their candidate is the next Reagan and his opponent the next Carter but it's never the case.

36 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:18:20am

re: #29 The Mongoose

I prefer to speak in terms of probabilities when there's no way to prove it one way or the other. If you're saying there is no realistic chance Mr. Romney would win today, then I completely disagree. I do think there are lots of opportunities for president Obama to reverse the current trend.

You're right he'd have about a 25% chance, up from 20%. But Nate hasn't changed his EC map.

37 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:20:47am

re: #25 The Mongoose

I'm not sure about that. Gallup released 2 sets of numbers yesterday and RCP had both up for a while...today I'm only seeing one release on Gallup's site. If that's the case, RCP is just going with what Gallup gives them.

Gallup released two polls yesterday. Its 7 day tracking poll that went through Sunday, and a three day snap-shot from that tracking poll that went from Thursday to Saturday.

RCP only included the 3 day poll because it looked better for Romney, and amazingly claimed it was "more recent." They weren't "just going with what Gallup gives them." They cherry picked the most favorable result.

38 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:20:51am

I think Romney's chances are better than they were this time last week but he still has a tough road ahead of him. And he's going to have a whole debate about a subject he calls a distraction. Plus, I think the next debate will show more social issues. Plus, I think voters will have higher expectations of Romney following his first debate performance. The perfect storm for Romney and he'll never actually admit it would have been to have his debate performance and the unemployment rate to be above 8%. If Obama was going to have one of those things go against him, it's better to have a shabby first debate than an unemployment rate above 8%.

39 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:21:50am

re: #36 moderatelyradicalliberal

You're right he'd have about a 25% chance, up from 20%. But Nate hasn't changed his EC map.

Mr. Silver's predictions aren't based on snapshots of today's polls. They're much more backward looking (for good reason) and therefore include polls taken before the debate. If you held the election right now I'd put Mr. Romney's chances considerably higher than 25%, but still less than 50%, primarily since I don't believe enthusiasm would yet be enough to carry him over the top in Ohio. Of course that's all just opinion, and has no bearing on where we'll be in a month. I agree that Mr. Obama remains the favorite in November. However, I expect Mr. Silver's model to tighten again when it is updated today.

40 lawhawk  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:21:56am

re: #28 Charles Johnson

Let's take RCP's own map showing no toss up states, which gives Obama the win.

With tossups, they still give Obama an advantage - 251 to 181, with 106EV undecided.

The 106EV breaks down as follows:
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)

If Obama wins Florida, that plus the other 251 expected to go his way (by RCP's own figures), then he wins. Mitt essentially has to sweep to win.

In other words, even with RCP's built in biases to the right, Romney's still in bad shape where it counts - in the EC.

41 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:23:40am

re: #37 JamesWI

Gallup released two polls yesterday. Its 7 day tracking poll that went through Sunday, and a three day snap-shot from that tracking poll that went from Thursday to Saturday.

RCP only included the 3 day poll because it looked better for Romney, and amazingly claimed it was "more recent." They weren't "just going with what Gallup gives them." They cherry picked the most favorable result.

I saw two Gallup numbers yesterday at one point, they may have narrowed it down later. Today it's all been replaced by Gallup's new numbers which include some pre-debate polling.

42 Obdicut  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:24:01am

re: #39 The Mongoose

Mr. Silver's predictions aren't based on snapshots of today's polls. They're much more backward looking (for good reason) and therefore include polls taken before the debate. If you held the election right now I'd put Mr. Romney's chances considerably higher than 25%, but still less than 50%, primarily since I don't believe enthusiasm would yet be enough to carry him over the top in Ohio. Of course that's all just opinion, and has no bearing on where we'll be in a month. I agree that Mr. Obama remains the favorite in November. However, I expect Mr. Silver's model to tighten again when it is updated today.

Silver's nowcast has Romney's chances as 17.5%.

43 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:24:53am

re: #40 lawhawk

Let's take RCP's own map showing no toss up states, which gives Obama the win.

With tossups, they still give Obama an advantage - 251 to 181, with 106EV undecided.

The 106EV breaks down as follows:
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Missouri (10)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Virginia (13)

If Obama wins Florida, that plus the other 251 expected to go his way (by RCP's own figures), then he wins. Mitt essentially has to sweep to win.

In other words, even with RCP's built in biases to the right, Romney's still in bad shape where it counts - in the EC.

If Obama wins Florida, he can start working on his 2nd inaugural. There's no electoral math that works for Romney without Florida.

44 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:25:17am

re: #41 The Mongoose

I saw two Gallup numbers yesterday at one point, they may have narrowed it down later. Today it's all been replaced by Gallup's new numbers which include some pre-debate polling.

They posted the other Gallup poll. They didn't include it in their average. They only included the three-day snap shot, and their justification for that was that a poll that went through Saturday was "more recent" than a poll that went through Sunday.

Hence, "cherry picking."

45 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:25:56am

re: #42 Sheeplord

Silver's nowcast has Romney's chances as 17.5%.

That's again because of the pre-debate polls he includes. If Romney's numbers hold for a few days, that number will move much more sharply than the Nov 6th forecast.

46 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:26:00am

re: #42 Sheeplord

Silver's nowcast has Romney's chances as 17.5%.

Did it just change? I was there just a minute ago?

47 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:26:56am

re: #46 moderatelyradicalliberal

Did it just change? I was there just a minute ago?

Check the "now-cast" vs. the Nov 6th forecast. There's a tab on the right.

48 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:27:22am

I guess the Romney campaign doesn't believe he's just 2 points down in PA.

49 NJDhockeyfan  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:27:54am

The Daily Kos/SEIU poll has Romney up by 2 points. You really can't call them biased toward the right.

50 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:28:45am

re: #48 moderatelyradicalliberal

I guess the Romney campaign doesn't believe he's just 2 points down in PA.

[Embedded content]

No Philly cheesesteaks and Primanti Bros sandwiches for them! But yeah moving out of PA isn't a good sign for them. I don't think they expected to win there but I think they wanted to at the very most make Obama divert resources there.

51 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:28:56am

re: #47 The Mongoose

Check the "now-cast" vs. the Nov 6th forecast. There's a tab on the right.

Thanks. So does that mean Nate factors in the race tightening and that's why the Nov. 6 forecast looks better then the now-cast?

52 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:29:02am

re: #44 JamesWI

They posted the other Gallup poll. They didn't include it in their average. They only included the three-day snap shot, and their justification for that was that a poll that went through Saturday was "more recent" than a poll that went through Sunday.

Hence, "cherry picking."

I suppose they could have included both but I can see their justification for going either way. The average polling date of the 3-day was more recent than the average of the 7-day. Anyways it's all washed away now.

53 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:31:11am

re: #52 The Mongoose

I suppose they could have included both but I can see their justification for going either way. The average polling date of the 3-day was more recent than the average of the 7-day. Anyways it's all washed away now.

By that justification, the average polling date of the 3 day snap shot is still more recent than (or just as recent as) today's poll. It still includes two pre-debate days.

54 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:32:19am

re: #51 moderatelyradicalliberal

Thanks. So does that mean Nate factors in the race tightening and that's why the Nov. 6 forecast looks better then the now-cast?

It's a little more complicated than that but you've got it. The Nov 6 takes into account the possibility of lots of poll movement over the next 4 weeks. The now-cast takes only Mr. Silver's average as of right this moment and doesn't allow for any future variability, only potential noise in current polls. So his current now-cast of 82.5-17.5 reflects a polling average (nationally) of a 51-48 Obama lead, which is what his poll weightings currently works out to.

55 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:32:48am

re: #49 NJDhockeyfan

The Daily Kos/SEIU poll has Romney up by 2 points. You really can't call them biased toward the right.

Kos has already posted an explanation - namely that the majority of calls in the poll were Friday and Saturday (Romney's best two days in every other poll so far).

Though it will be funny to watch right-wingers embrace a poll from Daily Kos while shunning Rasmussen.

56 CriticalDragon1177  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:34:16am

Charles Johnson,

Its funny. I knew you would love it. I just told you Gus about this on twitter. Coincidence?

57 NJDhockeyfan  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:34:44am

re: #55 JamesWI

Kos has already posted an explanation - namely that the majority of calls in the poll were Friday and Saturday (Romney's best two days in every other poll so far).

Though it will be funny to watch right-wingers embrace a poll from Daily Kos while shunning Rasmussen.

No matter why the numbers came out like that, this must have been hard for Kos to put on his website.

58 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:34:54am

re: #53 JamesWI

By that justification, the average polling date of the 3 day snap shot is still more recent than (or just as recent as) today's poll. It still includes two pre-debate days.

That 3-day averaged to Friday, I think...as would today's 7-day. I might be remembering wrong.

59 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:35:54am

re: #57 NJDhockeyfan

No matter why the numbers came out like that, this must have been hard for Kos to put on his website.

At least Markos is being honest unlike the hacks at Fox News who actually have a map with Romney winning Minnesota.

60 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:36:56am

re: #57 NJDhockeyfan

No matter why the numbers came out like that, this must have been hard for Kos to put on his website.

Funny that after all the crying about "the librul media skewing the polls," the poster boy for "extreme" liberals doesn't skew his polls

61 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:37:45am

re: #60 JamesWI

Funny that after all the crying about "the librul media skewing the polls," the poster boy for "extreme" liberals doesn't skew his polls

He's had some experience with that. Isn't he suing his old pollster for giving him skewed results? At the very least he deserves credit for wanting things to be accurate.

62 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 11:40:45am

re: #61 The Mongoose

He's had some experience with that. Isn't he suing his old pollster for giving him skewed results? At the very least he deserves credit for wanting things to be accurate.

If I'm remembering correctly, that suit was more about fraud than "skewing"....namely, that the pollster was basically just making up numbers instead of doing the actual polls.

63 Destro  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 12:41:36pm

Sesame Street has always been suspect to the right wing - lot's of different colored puppets living together...........

64 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 9, 2012 2:06:06pm

re: #45 The Mongoose

That's again because of the pre-debate polls he includes. If Romney's numbers hold for a few days, that number will move much more sharply than the Nov 6th forecast.

Evidence of this earlier point: Fivethirtyeight just updated, with Mr. Romney up 3.4% in the forecast, but 6.1% in the now-cast.


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