Daily Kos/SEIU Poll Has Romney in the Lead

An outlier?
Politics • Views: 20,558

A new poll commissioned by Daily Kos and SEIU has Mitt Romney with a four-point lead, and a margin of error of 2.5 points: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney’s best numbers of the week.

Markos points out that these results are unusual, possibly indicating an outlier:

At a time when other polls are moving back in the president’s direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:

Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

That Sunday sample, about a quarter of the total, was entirely responsible for Romney’s favorable numbers. That’s why the good pollsters collect data over multiple days, to smooth out such irregularities. And at 400 respondents (or so), Sunday had a single-day MoE of 4.9 percent. Lots of polls float around with worse. On the other hand, Saturday’s sample MoE was 3.92 percent, while Friday’s was 3.97 percent. And with no external news even suggesting the big Sunday collapse, it certainly smells like an outlier.

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217 comments
1 Kragar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:32:06pm

Is this when Andrew Sullivan runs in naked screaming that the world is ending?

2 Obdicut  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:32:26pm

I'm doing get out the vote stuff. I suggest anyone with any spare time do the same.

3 sagehen  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:32:49pm

I'm officially nervous.

4 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:32:54pm

re: #1 Kragar

Is this when Andrew Sullivan runs in naked screaming that the world is ending?

Could be worse, we could talking him down from jumping again.

"Sully, seriously, it's gonna be alright. Nate Silver still have his chances above 60%! Now back away slowly!"

5 gwangung  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:34:54pm

Should we even have to point out that given the number of polls taken, you will CERTAINLY get at least one or two outliers?

6 Kragar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:35:06pm

re: #2 Obdicut

I'm doing get out the vote stuff. I suggest anyone with any spare time do the same.

I've been working on a personal scale. Over the last year, I've successfully talked down 3 Tea Baggers who now swear to me they're going to vote for Obama.

7 erik_t  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:35:33pm

re: #3 sagehen

I'm officially nervous.

Either you should have been nervous all summer, or you should never be nervous ever. Politics are politics.

8 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:35:34pm

in the romney administration

the deficit will balloon and they'll blame obama
social security and medicare will go broke and they'll blame obama
the economy will limp along and they'll blame obama
they'll start another war and blame obama
children will get worse educations, they'll be more crime and more prisoners, police and fire departments and road crews will be cut and cut and cut and they'll blame obama

the rich will get richer and the middle class will become poor and more and more jobs will be drained out overseas and there'll be permanent 8% unemployment but they won't blame obama because they won't even notice anything's wrong with any of it as a matter of fact they'll like it

9 efuseakay  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:35:54pm

re: #6 Kragar

I've been working on a personal scale. Over the last year, I've successfully talked down 3 Tea Baggers who now swear to me they're going to vote for Obama.

And you believe them?

10 erik_t  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:36:37pm

re: #5 gwangung

Should we even have to point out that given the number of polls taken, you will CERTAINLY get at least one or two outliers?

At least one or two? The margins for error are almost certainly specified as a 95% confidence level, which of course means that one poll in twenty would fall outside of the interval.

One or two per week seems like a conservative estimate.

11 Kragar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:36:49pm

re: #9 efuseakay

And you believe them?

They now come to me with "Romney is a lying son of a bitch" on a regular basis.

12 efuseakay  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:37:43pm

re: #8 engineer cat

in the romney administration

the deficit will balloon and they'll blame obama
social security and medicare will go broke and they'll blame obama
the economy will limp along and they'll blame obama
they'll start another war and blame obama
children will get worse educations, they'll be more crime and more prisoners, police and fire departments and road crews will be cut and cut and cut and they'll blame obama

the rich will get richer and the middle class will become poor and more and more jobs will be drained out overseas and there'll be permanent 8% unemployment but they won't blame obama because they won't even notice anything's wrong with any of it as a matter of fact they'll like it

That's why they are doing anything and everything to win this time around. They can sit back, do nothing, get rich, and blame Obama for their shitty policies.

13 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:37:47pm

i'm sorry if it's doom and gloom but i expect obama to get really spiked everytime he tries to make a point tonight by really dirty debate tactics

it's like trying to win by playing by the rules except your opponent is the mafia

14 efuseakay  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:38:04pm

re: #11 Kragar

They now come to me with "Romney is a lying son of a bitch" on a regular basis.

Well I hope they mean it. :)

15 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:38:04pm

re: #6 Kragar

I've been working on a personal scale. Over the last year, I've successfully talked down 3 Tea Baggers who now swear to me they're going to vote for Obama.

I've given up on trying to convert my old man. He started nattering off the other night about the UE report being "convenient" and I fired back about how many times the UE came down during Bush's admin and nobody thought it "convenient." His response was to tell me (paraphrase) "we don't talk politics in this house."

16 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:38:43pm

re: #13 engineer cat

i'm sorry if it's doom and gloom but i expect obama to get really spiked everytime he tries to make a point tonight by really dirty debate tactics

it's like trying to win by playing by the rules except your opponent is the mafia

"Sure is a nice economy you got there. Would be a shame if 'something' were to happen to it."

17 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:39:31pm

re: #15 Targetpractice

I've given up on trying to convert my old man. He started nattering off the other night about the UE report being "convenient" and I fired back about how many times the UE came down during Bush's admin and nobody thought it "convenient." His response was to tell me (paraphrase) "we don't talk politics in this house."

Maybe a "Keep In The Vote" effort is in order...

///I would not actually want to disenfranchise anyone.

18 Mattand  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:39:49pm

re: #15 Targetpractice

I've given up on trying to convert my old man. He started nattering off the other night about the UE report being "convenient" and I fired back about how many times the UE came down during Bush's admin and nobody thought it "convenient." His response was to tell me (paraphrase) "we don't talk politics in this house."

Preview of my Thanksgiving.

19 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:41:32pm

If Romney brings up his "six studies" again, I hope Obama really hits him hard

"When Romney refers to his studies, what he is really talking about are a series of BLOG POSTS and editorials, written by his own advisers. Let me repeat that....BLOG POSTS, written by his advisers. Now, my wife Michelle might write in a newspaper that she likes my plans, but I'm not going to go around touting that as an independent study."

The pundits and bloggers (sorry Charles!) won't like it because it'll sound demeaning to them, but you have to think that the people watching will get just how ridiculous it is.

20 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:41:36pm

re: #17 wrenchwench

Maybe a "Keep In The Vote" effort is in order...

///I would not actually want to disenfranchise anyone.

Nah, I ain't got the heart to do something like that. Just figure I'll settle for having convinced my sister and try with my mother. Though I know an Obama reelection will be absolute hell come Thanksgiving.

21 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:42:35pm

re: #18 Mattand

Preview of my Thanksgiving.

re: #20 Targetpractice

Nah, I ain't got the heart to do something like that. Just figure I'll settle for having convinced my sister and try with my mother. Though I know an Obama reelection will be absolute hell come Thanksgiving.

Volunteer at a soup kitchen. All day. Wash actual dirty dishes, not clean ones like Ryan.

22 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:44:52pm

re: #15 Targetpractice

I've given up on trying to convert my old man. He started nattering off the other night about the UE report being "convenient" and I fired back about how many times the UE came down during Bush's admin and nobody thought it "convenient." His response was to tell me (paraphrase) "we don't talk politics in this house."

be prepared for 8 years of blaming all romney's failures on obama

23 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:44:52pm

"Obama Loses Election Because People Don't Want To Face Their Families at Thanksgiving if He Wins Again"

I don't want to see that headline!

24 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:45:40pm

re: #21 wrenchwench

re: #20 Targetpractice

Volunteer at a soup kitchen. All day. Wash actual dirty dishes, not clean ones like Ryan.

Well, it's not too awful. So far, my grandmother's the only one outside my sister we knows I support Obama. I was advised not to let anybody else in the family, or around town, know that. Oh well, guess it would be a good excuse not to make the 12hr car trip.

25 makeitstop  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:46:00pm

Wingnuts are going completely crazy on Facebook today for some reason.

Even more rage than usual. Something is winding them up bad.

26 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:47:33pm

re: #24 Targetpractice

Well, it's not too awful. So far, my grandmother's the only one outside my sister we knows I support Obama. I was advised not to let anybody else in the family, or around town, know that. Oh well, guess it would be a good excuse not to make the 12hr car trip.

You have two highly liberating experiences to choose from:

1.) Coming out, politically

2.) Ditching the family for the holidays.

27 ShaunP  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:48:00pm

re: #19 JamesWI

If Romney brings up his "six studies" again, I hope Obama really hits him hard

"When Romney refers to his studies, what he is really talking about are a series of BLOG POSTS and editorials, written by his own advisers. Let me repeat that....BLOG POSTS, written by his advisers. Now, my wife Michelle might write in a newspaper that she likes my plans, but I'm not going to go around touting that as an independent study."

The pundits and bloggers (sorry Charles!) won't like it because it'll sound demeaning to them, but you have to think that the people watching will get just how ridiculous it is.

Furthermore:

The Romney campaign’s job math is just as bad as its tax math
My colleague Glenn Kessler asked the Romney campaign to substantiate their claim that his policies will create 12 million jobs during his first term. The results were, as the kids say, LOL-worthy.

SNIP Details & Arithmetic...

This is a lot of misreading studies to get to a number that’s pretty easy to reach: According to Moody’s Analytics, the economy is set to add 12 million jobs over the next four years anyway. Romney’s goal might sound ambitious, but it’s actually what we expect will happen if policy stays more or less stable over the next few years. But rather than say their goal wasn’t actually that ambitious, and they simply planned to not mess anything up, the Romney campaign tried to make it sound ambitious by misusing a bunch of studies.

This isn’t the first time the Romney campaign has had some trouble getting studies to persuasively prove their point. Their recent white paper and op-ed on the economy either misquoted, selectively quoted, or misread most of the research they mentioned. In fact, it relied heavily on the work of Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, and Reinhart and Rogoff were so concerned about the misrepresentations that they wrote a whole new paper rebutting the Romney campaign’s arguments.

And then there are the six studies that supposedly prove their tax plan adds up. That’s perhaps the most brazenly wrong claim of them all. But more on that later.

28 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:49:42pm

re: #25 makeitstop

Wingnuts are going completely crazy on Facebook today for some reason.

Even more rage than usual. Something is winding them up bad.

Is it Hillary Clinton?

Yep. I just looked at my daily Limbaugh email. Hillary is in the subject line.

29 Skip Intro  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:52:40pm

re: #4 Targetpractice

"Sully, seriously, it's gonna be alright. Nate Silver still have his chances above 60%! Now back away slowly!"

Before the first debate they were above 85%. That's a hell of a drop.

30 A Mom Anon  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:53:28pm

re: #28 wrenchwench

Wingnuts. Keenly aware that someone somewhere is successful,forward thinking or having fun and by god,they will not let that stand.

31 darthstar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:53:50pm
32 freetoken  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:54:09pm

Finally can get to LGF. For about an hour there my local Cox box couldn't find it.

Computers - they will be the end of us.

33 sagehen  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:56:04pm

re: #13 engineer cat

i'm sorry if it's doom and gloom but i expect obama to get really spiked everytime he tries to make a point tonight by really dirty debate tactics

it's like trying to win by playing by the rules except your opponent is the mafia

Calvinball.

[Link: www.bartel.org...]

34 William of Orange  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:56:08pm

Here is your much needed daily dose of humor!

EPIC RAP BATTLES OF HISTORY!!

MITT ROMNEY VS. BARACK OBAMA (and a little bit of Lincoln.)

And visit their channel! They've got lots more epic rap battles of history over there!

35 Skip Intro  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:56:10pm

re: #8 engineer cat

in the romney administration

the rich will get richer and the middle class will become poor and more and more jobs will be drained out overseas and there'll be permanent 8% unemployment but they won't blame obama because they won't even notice anything's wrong with any of it as a matter of fact they'll like it

Fox News will tell them everything is great now, and they'll believe them.

Depressing stuff. I admit, I underestimated the power of the Karl Rove/Roger Ailes axis.

36 Charles Johnson  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:56:59pm

re: #32 freetoken

Finally can get to LGF. For about an hour there my local Cox box couldn't find it.

Computers - they will be the end of us.

Cox -- that explains it. They're notorious for aggressive caching of web content, and they'll hang onto their cache of a connection failure, sometimes for hours or even days.

37 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:57:12pm

re: #29 Skip Intro

Before the first debate they were above 85%. That's a hell of a drop.

Think of it like Facebook's initial stock offering: Overinflated. Folks got complacent, believing Obama invincible, and the first debate knocked down those expectations.

38 Killgore Trout  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 1:57:51pm
A new poll commissioned by Daily Kos and SEIU has Mitt Romney with a four-point lead, and a margin of error of 2.5 points: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney’s best numbers of the week.

Markos points out that these results are unusual, possibly indicating an outlier:

Gallup also reporting a 4 point lead
Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters

39 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:00:47pm
40 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:03:09pm

re: #32 freetoken

Finally can get to LGF. For about an hour there my local Cox box couldn't find it.

Computers - they will be the end of us.

Just saw a guy get out of his car... stand in the middle of the street holding his iPhone. Twirled around once pointing it at the houses. Then walk to the house he was looking for. Forget map reading.

41 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:04:33pm

Barack Obama (D) 49.66
Mitt Romney (R) 44.51

Release information available from RAND.
±3.0 margin of error.
3500 Likely Voters were polled by internet survey.
Conducted by RAND from 10/15/2012 to 10/15/2012.

42 efuseakay  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:07:55pm

re: #40 Gus

Just saw a guy get out of his car... stand in the middle of the street holding his iPhone. Twirled around once pointing it at the houses. Then walk to the house he was looking for. Forget map reading.

If he had iOS 6, he would have ended up in a pond. ;)

43 lostlakehiker  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:08:33pm

re: #22 engineer cat

be prepared for 8 years of blaming all romney's failures on obama

If that's how it goes for the first four, there won't be a second four. There's an algae that has some motility. It has no sensory organs, being single-celled, but it does have "states"---call them happy, and unhappy. Or getting nutrients and sunlight, vs. not getting them, or being poisoned. In any case, this is the experimental observation: oscillatoria algae run their little motors and move when they're in the bad state, and they sit tight when they're in the good state.

For all the talk about sheeple, human voters can muster all the intelligence of oscillatoria and then some. If things are bad enough, then they're more likely to vote for a change, any change.

Republicans are at a basic disadvantage. There are more Democrats. Only by appealing to independents does a Republican stand a chance, and that R will have to turn on a dime mid-candidacy to get away from the positions he had to take to win the nomination. Consistency is inconsistent with winning first the nomination and then the general election. So, with this headwind, Republicans cannot win reelection without at least the appearance of economic progress.

44 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:08:55pm

re: #41 Gus

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe any of them.

45 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:09:32pm

re: #44 researchok

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe any of them.

I only like the ones that show Obama up. :D

//

46 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:09:33pm

re: #40 Gus

Just saw a guy get out of his car... stand in the middle of the street holding his iPhone. Twirled around once pointing it at the houses. Then walk to the house he was looking for. Forget map reading.

From a mountain bike forum:

Hey guys, I went out to pre ride today (never been out here) and things were going fine until I got into the Greaterville area. Here my Garmin Edge freaked out on me, got all gobbledygook and then went into a "truncated" route mode. The pink line I was following now had a lot of "fingers" jutting off path then back again. Also, it looked like it rerouted itself and was trying to get me back the shortest way possible, any road out to 83. Did I get a bad data download. Anyone know what this is? Anyway, I finally tooled around a bit and headed out on Gardner Canyon Road to Highway 83 and in. I got a taste of the first 1/3 or so. Lots of questions unanswered about the last 2/3. Looks like a long way unsupported, what do you guys carry, Camelbacks or larger packs with even more water?

My friend's reply:

Camelbacks, yes. Some us also carry a map and compass.

47 dragonath  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:09:49pm

Just thinking, this being a Kos/OMGunion! poll, wingnuts would be saying these numbers were faker than fake if they were the other way around.

48 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:10:25pm

re: #46 wrenchwench

From a mountain bike forum:

My friend's reply:

"Some us also carry a map and compass."

Who'd a thunk it.

49 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:10:31pm

re: #2 Obdicut

I'm doing get out the vote stuff. I suggest anyone with any spare time do the same.

I figure that is what Kos is doing by publishing numbers like this.

50 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:10:56pm

re: #48 Gus

"Some us also carry a map and compass."

Who'd a thunk it.

'Course you hafta know how to use 'em....

51 erik_t  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:11:20pm

re: #49 Daniel Ballard

I figure that is what Kos is doing by publishing numbers like this.

Are you suggesting that they would not publish the numbers if they did not suit their intended message? Or are you suggesting that they're illegitimate?

52 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:11:26pm

re: #50 wrenchwench

'Course you hafta know how to use 'em....

What are those skinny red lines?

53 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:15:10pm

re: #51 erik_t

I am suggesting that the numbers as published will accelerate the "get out the vote" attitude. Making them more likely to get more play. Not that Kos censors, more that they will seize on numbers that help them in reality or mere perception.

Blogs and the various media have a huge monetary vested interest in a close race.

54 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:15:14pm

re: #51 erik_t

Are you suggesting that they would not publish the numbers if they did not suit their intended message? Or are you suggesting that they're illegitimate?

They may well be playing it dead straight, and I think that's usually the best approach to take. There's no evidence to suggest this poll is anything but legitimate.

If not, I don't think you put out numbers like this to fire up your base...if anything it's more likely to demoralize them. The way a tweaked poll like this can help is to put it out and then do another one after the debate showing your guy doing better.

Gallup, as mentioned, is also at Romney +4. Given other polls at the moment, a more realistic number is probably Romney +1 or +2.

55 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:15:48pm

Whoops...duplicate.

56 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:16:33pm
57 Killgore Trout  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:17:17pm

Syrian grenade launcher (video)
[Link: viralvideos.prochan.com...]

58 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:18:54pm

re: #57 Killgore Trout

Syrian grenade launcher (video)
[Link: viralvideos.prochan.com...]

Holy hell. That thing is 10x more dangerous to the people firing it than their target.

59 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:20:30pm

re: #56 Gus

Character - Obama for America TV Ad
Ohio
John Glenn

[Embedded content]

"And you know he means what he says." Subtle.

60 Killgore Trout  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:21:13pm

re: #58 The Mongoose

Holy hell. That thing is 10x more dangerous to the people firing it than their target.

The Libyan rebels had some pretty crazy contraptions too. Probably not very effective tactically but entertaining nonetheless.

61 Ming  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:21:42pm

In tonight's debate, Barack Obama needs to do what he, his wife, Bill Clinton, and other speakers did at September's Democratic National Convention: show people who he really is, and show people that he really cares.

In the 1988 campaign, Dukakis was perceived to have done badly in his answer to that question from Bernard Shaw, about whether he'd support the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered. Dukakis gave a reasonable, passionless, professorial answer. Sound familiar? At the time, I thought Dukakis answered the question well. But many disagreed.

Tonight, Obama doesn't have to do anything special. As the saying goes, "just be yourself". But he really needs to remember Dukakis, and avoid his absent-minded professor side. Those people who will be in the town hall tonight are just as real as any of the people the Obamas have always cared about. I hope they get to see the President at his best.

62 goddamnedfrank  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:24:31pm
What that Defense of Marriage Act also means to Tracy Dice is:

-She could never use the commissary to do the grocery shopping where food is marked just 5 percent above wholesale.

-Tracy was never covered under Johnson's Tricare medical insurance.

-She and Sgt. Johnson never received the Basic Allowance for Housing stipend essential to many male-female couples in securing housing.

-She couldn't go to base-sponsored picnics and events.

-She couldn't get any assistance with relocating with her wife to a new duty station, including overseas.

-Once at a new base Tracy would not have qualified for employment or education assistance.

-She did not qualify for free legal service.

-If she were ever a victim of spousal abuse and the 'survivor' effects of PTSD, she could not go to family advocacy or spousal abuse centers.

-She will not receive any of Johnson's survivor benefits.

And perhaps most striking of all is that when the suicide bomber ripped through that Afghan market October 1 killing her wife, Tracy had to hear about it second-hand, because the Army refused to acknowledge her as the Primary Next Of Kin (PNOK). That means grief counseling and all the honors due a fallen spouse are also being denied to Tracy Dice.

To me this election is about a basic question of civil rights.

63 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:25:14pm

re: #60 Killgore Trout

The Libyan rebels had some pretty crazy contraptions too. Probably not very effective tactically but entertaining nonetheless.

You mean the "Do it Yourself Self-Propelled Howitzer," that was little more than an APC turret welded to a truck frame?

64 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:25:23pm

re: #61 Ming

In the 1988 campaign, Dukakis was perceived to have done badly in his answer to that question from Bernard Shaw, about whether he'd support the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered. Dukakis gave a reasonable, passionless, professorial answer. Sound familiar? At the time, I thought Dukakis answered the question well. But many disagreed.

The West Wing answer: "Yes you'd want to see him put to death, you'd want it to be cruel and unusual, which why it's probably a good idea that fathers of murder victims don't have legal rights in these situations!"

65 Killgore Trout  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:29:37pm

re: #63 Targetpractice

You mean the "Do it Yourself Self-Propelled Howitzer," that was little more than an APC turret welded to a truck frame?

There was also a really cool rocket launcher attached to a pickup bed. The truck with the rocket launcher would dart into the open and another truck would pull up along side. A dude would get out with jumper cables to launch the rockets then they'd dash back into the ally to reload.

66 Redmalamute  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:32:04pm

While I am hoping it is an outlier, Gallop's tracking poll has Romney up +4 and with 50% approval. Scary.

67 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:32:18pm

re: #65 Killgore Trout

There was also a really cool rocket launcher attached to a pickup bed. The truck with the rocket launcher would dart into the open and another truck would pull up along side. A dude would get out with jumper cables to launch the rockets then they'd dash back into the ally to reload.

Yeah, I remember that, was a rocket pod off an aircraft they were using. Consisted of nothing more than using jumper cables to fire off the rockets, though later they managed a crude control system that made the whole thing self-contained.

Crazy SOBs.

68 AK-47%  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:32:28pm

Obama has to remind us all, and especially women and minorities , that the GOp wants to turn back all the social gains they have made over the past 50 years and which qwe have begun to take for granted: civil rights, contraception, freedom of choice, access to medical services, etc.

Mitt wants them either abolished outright or remanded back to the states where they will start disappearing one by one.

69 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:33:29pm

re: #68 AK-47%

Obama has to remind us all, and especially women and minorities , that the GOp wants to turn back all the social gains they have made over the past 50 years and which qwe have begun to take for granted: civil rights, contraception, freedom of choice, access to medical services, etc.

Mitt wants them either abolished outright or remanded back to the states where they will start disappearing one by one.

No kidding. There's so much that is taken for granted and Romney and his party benefit when Americans do that.

70 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:34:27pm

re: #66 Redmalamute

While I am hoping it is an outlier, Gallop's tracking poll has Romney up +4 and with 50% approval. Scary.

As so often in the past few years, I find myself wondering: what the holy fuck is wrong with these people?

71 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:34:28pm

re: #68 AK-47%

Obama has to remind us all, and especially women and minorities , that the GOp wants to turn back all the social gains they have made over the past 50 years and which qwe have begun to take for granted: civil rights, contraception, freedom of choice, access to medical services, etc.

Mitt wants them either abolished outright or remanded back to the states where they will start disappearing one by one.

Of course, Ryan's little performance last week was part of getting the meme out there that, now that Obama "can't run on his record," he's gonna scare people into voting against Romney. Look for a lot of talking heads declaring that Obama's warnings about Romney's approach to social issues amounts to "scaremongering."

72 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:34:42pm

re: #70 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne

As so often in the past few years, I find myself wondering: what the holy fuck is wrong with these people?

"Oooh, shiny thing!"

73 AK-47%  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:36:44pm

Remember, Obama has the disadvantqage that he has to run on his record, Romney is Running from his record: he can simply blow soap bubbles and let them reflect whatever his target audience wants to see.

74 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:38:09pm

re: #73 AK-47%

Remember, Obama has the disadvantqage that he has to run on his record, Romney is Running from his record: he can simply blow soap bubbles and let them reflect whatever his target audience wants to see.

Ayep, the man of a thousand masks, none of them his own. You'd think that not knowing what the guy you're voting for actually plans to do would be off-putting, but apparently people are stupid enough to believe that he actually means anything he says to get their vote.

75 erik_t  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:39:15pm

re: #74 Targetpractice

Ayep, the man of a thousand masks, none of them his own. You'd think that not knowing what the guy you're voting for actually plans to do would be off-putting, but apparently people are stupid enough to believe that he actually means anything he says to get their vote.

Skin color don't lie.

76 Tigger2  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:39:27pm

Get all the details to Romney's tax plan here.


[Link: www.romneytaxplan.com...]

77 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:40:34pm

re: #71 Targetpractice

Of course, Ryan's little performance last week was part of getting the meme out there that, now that Obama "can't run on his record," he's gonna scare people into voting against Romney. Look for a lot of talking heads declaring that Obama's warnings about Romney's approach to social issues amounts to "scaremongering."

That's exactly what will happen if the President goes the route of accusing Mr. Romney of wanting to roll back civil rights. Romney will have a powerful canned answer waiting if President Obama over-reaches on anything like that. They'll accuse him of making outrageous accusations out of desperation, and that will be the story.

The President has a very fine line to walk tonight. It is doable, though.

78 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:42:55pm

re: #66 Redmalamute

While I am hoping it is an outlier, Gallop's tracking poll has Romney up +4 and with 50% approval. Scary.

Half the polls have Obama gaining, half the polls have Romney gaining. In other words, no one has any clue what is going to happen, as is usually the case.

79 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:43:11pm

re: #70 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne

As so often in the past few years, I find myself wondering: what the holy fuck is wrong with these people?

What drives me nuts is the collective short term memory of the American people. Have they forgotten that his recent debate performance aside that Mitt Romney is still a man who insulted 47% of the population, etc. I mean it's this mindset that leads to us getting the Tea Party influence and in Congress. Whatever I guess.

80 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:43:53pm

I'm not sure how likely voters are determined, but I do know that people are actually voting for real already and those numbers look pretty damn good for Obama and the Democrats. If Republicans are so enthusiastic and Democrats are so bummed, why are more Democrats voting as soon as they get the chance? Polls matter a lot less when there are things happening in real life that contradict them.

Keep clam and carry on.

81 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:44:04pm

re: #77 The Mongoose

That's exactly what will happen if the President goes the route of accusing Mr. Romney of wanting to roll back civil rights. Romney will have a powerful canned answer waiting if President Obama over-reaches on anything like that. They'll accuse him of making outrageous accusations out of desperation, and that will be the story.

The President has a very fine line to walk tonight. It is doable, though.

It's doable, but it requires him basically playing to type, which is a man who doesn't take risks and doesn't get confrontational. We saw what the sort of approach yields two weeks ago.

82 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:44:35pm

re: #78 JamesWI

Half the polls have Obama gaining, half the polls have Romney gaining. In other words, no one has any clue what is going to happen, as is usually the case.

That's about right. Throw in the unusual situation in which Romney is almost certainly ahead nationally but can't seem to claw out a lead in Ohio, Iowa or Nevada, and this election is completely up in the air. Nate Silver said as much yesterday or the day before.

83 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:45:11pm

re: #81 Targetpractice

It's doable, but it requires him basically playing to type, which is a man who doesn't take risks and doesn't get confrontational. We saw what the sort of approach yields two weeks ago.

That's the fine line. Too far in that direction and he's in trouble too. I don't envy him his task tonight, but if he succeeds, it'll be powerful.

84 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:45:49pm

re: #43 lostlakehiker

Republicans cannot win reelection without at least the appearance of economic progress.

they've become experts at convincing people that black is just a liberal's name for white

they'll blame it on obama

85 A Mom Anon  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:46:00pm

I've been reading Douglass Brinkley's biography of Teddy Roosevelt and the creation of the National Parks Service,as well as some John Muir over the last few weeks. One thing that's been striking to me is Muir's warnings that there will ALWAYS be a threat to the parks by businessmen who look to exploit and destroy the land for their own purposes and profits and that we should never be too complacent about our rights and our progress. Muir had a key role in convincing Roosevelt that the idea of national parks was a sound one,and that his legacy could be one of creating more and more land that belongs to all of us. I'm glad Teddy listened. Sadly Muir died without stopping the flooding of his beloved Hetch Hetchy valley,but his words still ring true today,maybe more than ever.

They will do ANYTHING,anything to win,we can never ever forget that.

86 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:46:42pm

re: #83 The Mongoose

That's the fine line. Too far in that direction and he's in trouble too. I don't envy him his task tonight, but if he succeeds, it'll be powerful.

He'll succeed by convincing the crowd that he's sincere. Part of that is venturing into the minefield. He has to be Bush in '04, getting out there and connecting with the people rather than just trying to "play it safe."

87 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:47:53pm

He needs to show people why he's not only right but why Romney is wrong. Tough task to do since Mitt has shown he'll lie his ass off.

88 Obdicut  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:48:14pm

re: #77 The Mongoose

That's exactly what will happen if the President goes the route of accusing Mr. Romney of wanting to roll back civil rights. Romney will have a powerful canned answer waiting if President Obama over-reaches on anything like that. They'll accuse him of making outrageous accusations out of desperation, and that will be the story.

Why do you consider it an over-reach?

89 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:48:50pm

re: #80 moderatelyradicalliberal

I'm not sure how likely voters are determined, but I do know that people are actually voting for real already and those numbers look pretty damn good for Obama and the Democrats. If Republicans are so enthusiastic and Democrats are so bummed, why are more Democrats voting as soon as they get the chance? Polls matter a lot less when there are things happening in real life that contradict them.

Keep clam and carry on.

From what I've heard, a lot of it is questions along the lines of "Have you voted in each of the last X elections?", and "How enthusiastic are you about voting?" So, people generally say that LV screens can be biased against new voters (whether they're "new" because they only turned 18 in the last 4 years or so, or "new" because they weren't interested in politics before), and also biased against people who move around a lot.

In other words, they screen out a lot of Democratic voters, which is why LV screens always seem to favor the Republican. In 2008, the numbers were a lot closer to the RV polls than the LV ones.

90 Dark_Falcon  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:49:20pm

Upding to Charles for posting the poll, even if he wasn't fond of what it said. Honesty has always been the hallmark of LGF, and its a big reason why I joined and why I stay.

91 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:49:34pm

I agree he needs to connect and to be sincere. But I don't equate that with telling Romney that he's a liar and wants to destroy social progress in America. I think a lot of the Democratic base wants to see way, way too much anger and aggression from a sitting president. I think if he goes that route, Romney will look like the frontrunner and, more importantly, like the President-in-waiting.

I could be wrong. But I think what the base wants and what the middle wants are more at odds for Mr. Obama than for Mr. Romney.

92 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:51:41pm

re: #61 Ming

In tonight's debate, Barack Obama needs to do what he, his wife, Bill Clinton, and other speakers did at September's Democratic National Convention: show people who he really is, and show people that he really cares.

In the 1988 campaign, Dukakis was perceived to have done badly in his answer to that question from Bernard Shaw, about whether he'd support the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered. Dukakis gave a reasonable, passionless, professorial answer. Sound familiar? At the time, I thought Dukakis answered the question well. But many disagreed.

Tonight, Obama doesn't have to do anything special. As the saying goes, "just be yourself". But he really needs to remember Dukakis, and avoid his absent-minded professor side. Those people who will be in the town hall tonight are just as real as any of the people the Obamas have always cared about. I hope they get to see the President at his best.

After 4 years why would they believe he doesn't care? And what has anybody seen from Romney to suggest that he does? Seriously, if Romney wins you think it would be because people believe he is more caring? After the 47% video? I don't think so.

Let's just be really fucking honest. Barack Obama's problem is what it has always been. He has to constantly reassure white (he hasn't lost support from anybody else) people that he isn't out to do them harm on purpose. Romney doesn't have that burden. He has the advantage of most white people wanting Big White Daddy in the White House. Mitt can lie, cheat, and be an all around 1% asshole who doesn't give a damn about anybody, but most white folks will still be fool enough to believe he cares about them. They will still think his policies are more likely to be good for them. That is what Obama is and has always been up against.

93 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:52:44pm

re: #91 The Mongoose

I agree he needs to connect and to be sincere. But I don't equate that with telling Romney that he's a liar and wants to destroy social progress in America. I think a lot of the Democratic base wants to see way, way too much anger and aggression from a sitting president. I think if he goes that route, Romney will look like the frontrunner and, more importantly, like the President-in-waiting.

I could be wrong. But I think what the base wants and what the middle wants are more at odds for Mr. Obama than for Mr. Romney.

Part of connecting with the people is telling them "This man is not being honest." Acting as though Romney is just the other side of the coin is being disingenuous and the people understand that. He does more damage to his standing with his party's base shrinking from the issue than he makes up with independents.

94 Mark Winter  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:53:29pm

I still don't understand it. Obama's performance in the first debate was somewhat lacking, but he did say nothing wrong, no gaffe, no outrage.

Romney tells 47% of Americans that they are leeches and pulls ahead???
Sorry, I don't believe any polls. Obama will win these elections.

95 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:53:49pm
96 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:54:35pm

Too much anger and aggression isn't good. However, he can and should point out Mr. Romney's problems with consistency and honesty. I'm sorry but Romney has gotten away with for too long being one place one day and saying one thing and having the exact opposite position in another place. He doesn't need to lose his temper and show anger at Romney but point out with a smile how inconsistent the guy is and point out that his fellow Republicans even agreed with that in the primaries.

97 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:55:14pm

re: #95 JamesWI

Sheldon Adelson made $400 million........in TODAY'S stock market gains

Man, that guy needs a tax cut.

Man the rich are so oppressed in this country. Socialist Muslim Nazi dictatorship!!!!!!!!!!!

98 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:55:53pm

Wired has an interesting article, interviewing the author of "The Finish".
first paragraph is a jaw dropper-

There was more evidence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction than there was that a mysterious, tall man the CIA spotted pacing around a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was Osama bin Laden. In a brand new book about the raid that ultimately killed al-Qaida’s leader, Michael Morrell, the CIA’s former second in command, tells author Mark Bowden, “the case for WMD wasn’t just stronger — it was much stronger.” Gulp.

There is an implication there that might make some freak right out. As if Obama would have invaded Iraq. Not speculating myself but wow. What a thing to say.

99 Page 3 in the Binder of Women  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:57:05pm

re: #80 moderatelyradicalliberal

I'm not sure how likely voters are determined, but I do know that people are actually voting for real already and those numbers look pretty damn good for Obama and the Democrats. If Republicans are so enthusiastic and Democrats are so bummed, why are more Democrats voting as soon as they get the chance? Polls matter a lot less when there are things happening in real life that contradict them.

Keep clam and carry on.

Fried with lemon please.

100 KoolEarl  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:57:26pm

With all the conflicting poll information, I am at the point where OHIO. WISCONSIN NEVADA is getting to be a mantra. Take those 3 states and anything else is gravy

101 moderatelyradicalliberal  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:58:00pm

re: #94 Mark Winter

I still don't understand it. Obama's performance in the first debate was somewhat lacking, but he did say nothing wrong, no gaffe, no outrage.

Romney tells 47% of Americans that they are leeches and pulls ahead???
Sorry, I don't believe any polls. Obama will win these elections.

I generally agree with you. I don't think the race is really different then what it has been the last 5 months. Like every other election it will be about turn out and Obama as more paths to victory then Romney. Winning FL and NC would be nice, but it's not necessary. Ohio and IA are locks based on polls and early voting. I also wouldn't be all that concerned with a closer popular vote then 2008 either. So what if Romney wins every racist in the Deep South? He still gets the same number of electoral votes and it it won't be enough.

102 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:58:50pm

re: #94 Mark Winter

I still don't understand it. Obama's performance in the first debate was somewhat lacking, but he did say nothing wrong, no gaffe, no outrage.

Romney tells 47% of Americans that they are leeches and pulls ahead???
Sorry, I don't believe any polls. Obama will win these elections.

I really hope you're right. Really, Romney should be getting booed left and right for those comments. I'm sorry but those were disgusting and showed why the guy shouldn't be considered any political leadership position and he deserves all the crap he got for them.

103 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 2:59:23pm

re: #98 Daniel Ballard

Wired has an interesting article, interviewing the author of "The Finish".
first paragraph is a jaw dropper

There was more evidence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction than there was that a mysterious, tall man the CIA spotted pacing around a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was Osama bin Laden. In a brand new book about the raid that ultimately killed al-Qaida’s leader, Michael Morrell, the CIA’s former second in command, tells author Mark Bowden, “the case for WMD wasn’t just stronger — it was much stronger.” Gulp.

There is an implication there that might make some freak right out. As if Obama would have invaded Iraq. Not speculating myself but wow. What a thing to say.

Romney's campaign won't touch this if they have half a collective brain. Conspiratorial, reminds people of Bush, and brings the issue back to bin Laden which is a great point in Mr. Obama's favor.

104 Dark_Falcon  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:00:35pm

re: #98 Daniel Ballard

Wired has an interesting article, interviewing the author of "The Finish".
first paragraph is a jaw dropper-

There was more evidence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction than there was that a mysterious, tall man the CIA spotted pacing around a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was Osama bin Laden. In a brand new book about the raid that ultimately killed al-Qaida’s leader, Michael Morrell, the CIA’s former second in command, tells author Mark Bowden, “the case for WMD wasn’t just stronger — it was much stronger.” Gulp.

There is an implication there that might make some freak right out. As if Obama would have invaded Iraq. Not speculating myself but wow. What a thing to say.

Well, there was more than a small amount of evidence Saddam Hussein had retained chemical weapons, but it turned out much of that evidence existed to make Saddam look tougher than he was. Still, the statement is only regarding the perceived strength of the reports. How leaders chose to use those reports is another matter.

105 Dark_Falcon  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:02:08pm

re: #103 The Mongoose

Romney's campaign won't touch this if they have half a collective brain. Conspiratorial, reminds people of Bush, and brings the issue back to bin Laden which is a great point in Mr. Obama's favor.

Quite Concur.

106 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:02:43pm

re: #100 KoolEarl

With all the conflicting poll information, I am at the point where OHIO. WISCONSIN NEVADA is getting to be a mantra. Take those 3 states and anything else is gravy

Obama probably wins with any 2 of those...doesn't even need all 3 unless Romney sweeps Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia...which isn't likely if he loses Ohio and Nevada.

107 Mark Winter  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:03:55pm

It will be 3am here but I'm watching the debate. I expect a different Obama.
Good idea to buy some shares at Intrade.

108 AK-47%  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:05:06pm

I cringe at the thought of Romney taking the popular vote but losing like Al Gore in 2000 in the Electoral College. It will be 1860 all over again...

109 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:05:23pm

re: #107 Mark Winter

It will be 3am here but I'm watching the debate. I expect a different Obama.
Good idea to buy some shares at Intrade.

I'm still sitting on a pile of Romney shares I bought at 17 & 24. I sold enough to basically just be playing with profits at this point.

110 Our Precious Bodily Fluids  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:05:31pm

I've decided I can't stomach the debates tonight. Romney's just going to lie and lie and claim he never said some shit he just said in the previous 15 minutes.

111 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:05:33pm

re: #104 Dark_Falcon

Well, there was more than a small amount of evidence Saddam Hussein had retained chemical weapons, but it turned out much of that evidence existed to make Saddam look tougher than he was. Still, the statement is only regarding the perceived strength of the reports. How leaders chose to use those reports is another matter.

when the invasion began i expected them to find chemical weapons since after all we had sold them to him

112 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:05:35pm

Shit. I'm nervous.
Why do I feel like I'm gonna be the one doing the debate?
//

113 sagehen  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:07:27pm

re: #108 AK-47%

I cringe at the thought of Romney taking the popular vote but losing like Al Gore in 2000 in the Electoral College. It will be 1860 all over again...

I don't think a conservative can win the popular vote and loses the electoral college, that only happens to the liberal.

Because the EC gives extra weight to sparsely populated places, which are always more conservative than the cities.

114 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:09:11pm

re: #113 sagehen

I don't think a conservative can win the popular vote and loses the electoral college, that only happens to the liberal.

Because the EC gives extra weight to sparsely populated places, which are always more conservative than the cities.

I have to disagree. If you held the vote today, according to the polls, there is certainly a slim but distinct possibility that Romney could win the popular vote but lose Ohio, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin. That would basically bury his chances.

115 Mark Winter  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:09:30pm

re: #109 The Mongoose

Think I missed that moment. Currently Obama is going up again and I expect another jump after this debate. Romney has no more surprises left. It would be like Sarah Palin suddenly discussing quantum physics.

116 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:12:13pm

re: #113 sagehen

I don't think a conservative can win the popular vote and loses the electoral college, that only happens to the liberal.

Because the EC gives extra weight to sparsely populated places, which are always more conservative than the cities.

What's interesting is in 2000 I remember people speculating that it would be Gore that would lose the popular vote but win the EC. Honestly, while I don't hate it like some people, I think popular vote is better than EC. I think it would force candidates to campaign throughout the country which I think would be good.

117 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:12:19pm

re: #111 engineer cat

when the invasion began i expected them to find chemical weapons since after all we had sold them to him

Chem weapons, even binaries, have a very poor shelf life. After a couple decades the surveillance and maintenance become a nightmare.

118 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:12:25pm

re: #110 Our Precious Bodily Fluids

I've decided I can't stomach the debates tonight. Romney's just going to lie and lie and claim he never said some shit he just said in the previous 15 minutes.

the only hope we have is if normal romney brain functioning overrides the programming and he cluelessly talks to the audience like he does sometimes as if they were his rich idiot friends

if romney doesn't screw up we're fucked

119 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:12:37pm

re: #115 Mark Winter

Think I missed that moment. Currently Obama is going up again and I expect another jump after this debate. Romney has no more surprises left. It would be like Sarah Palin suddenly discussing quantum physics.

My current prediction (which I put very, very little certainty behind) is that the debate tonight will be a draw and that Mr. Romney's lead will solidify a little bit as a result. But anything could happen. Obama could blow Romney away, Romney could look so presidential that he locks up swing voters, or nothing of import could happen. We won't know until the die is cast.

120 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:13:02pm

One thing I expect is that Romney's going to use Hillary's mea culpa against Obama, asking him if he will accept her taking responsibility or will take responsibility himself for her actions.

121 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:14:08pm

re: #120 Targetpractice

One thing I expect is that Romney's going to use Hillary's mea culpa against Obama, asking him if he will accept her taking responsibility or will take responsibility himself for her actions.

Now there's a prediction I can put some certainty behind. I totally agree. President Obama will be ready for it, though.

122 erik_t  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:14:13pm

re: #116 HappyWarrior

I think popular vote is better than EC. I think it would force candidates to campaign throughout the country which I think would be good.

No, it would just have them campaigning in California, Texas and New York instead of Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Places like Kentucky, Washington, Minnesota etc. would continue to not get the time of day.

123 spiderx  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:15:02pm

how many here used to be republicans?

124 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:15:11pm

re: #122 erik_t

No, it would just have them campaigning in California, Texas and New York instead of Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Places like Kentucky, Washington, Minnesota etc. would continue to not get the time of day.

Yeah I guess you're right.

125 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:15:44pm

re: #121 The Mongoose

Now there's a prediction I can put some certainty behind. I totally agree. President Obama will be ready for it, though.

Question is, will he accept her taking responsibility, leading to strengthening of the accusations that he's "hiding behind her skirt," or will accept responsibility for her actions and thus face accusations that he was "too late" in doing so?

126 The Mongoose  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:16:36pm

re: #125 Targetpractice

Question is, will he accept her taking responsibility, leading to strengthening of the accusations that he's "hiding behind her skirt," or will accept responsibility for her actions and thus face accusations that he was "too late" in doing so?

Like I said earlier in this thread...he's got a fine f***ing line to walk tonight on more than one issue.

127 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:16:50pm

re: #125 Targetpractice

Question is, will he accept her taking responsibility, leading to strengthening of the accusations that he's "hiding behind her skirt," or will accept responsibility for her actions and thus face accusations that he was "too late" in doing so?

Well it will be damned if you did or damned if you didn't for Romney. Not sure what the American people will do though or how he will handle the question.

128 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:17:13pm

re: #123 spiderx

how many here used to be republicans?

my family has been voting democratic at least since my grandfather voted for william jennings bryan in 1908

129 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:18:10pm

The problem is, no one really knows what to expect from Romney,
or what Romney to expect.

130 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:19:00pm

re: #129 Reverend Mother Ramallo

The problem is, no one really knows what to expect from Romney,
or what Romney to expect.

Very true. Will Mitt McCain show up tonight or Mitt Reagan?

131 Big Joe  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:19:10pm

re: #123 spiderx

how many here used to be republicans?

I've been a Democrat since I had the pleasure of Ronald Reagan as my governor.

132 spiderx  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:19:14pm

i'll be skipping back and forth form the debate to USA vs Guatemala

133 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:19:15pm

re: #129 Reverend Mother Ramallo

The problem is, no one really knows what to expect from Romney,
or what Romney to expect.

And this is the problem. He'll either be Mitt the Moderate or Mitt the severe conservative or anything in between. I am really hoping that he makes a big mistake tonight that reminds people of why they have by and large not trusted him for the job.

134 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:19:37pm

re: #123 spiderx

how many here used to be republicans?

Does liking Ike at 14 count?
Once thought about voting for a Republican (Lacey Davenport).

135 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:19:47pm

re: #123 spiderx

how many here used to be republicans?

Nah never. Highest I've ever voted Republican is for Congress. Can't see myself doing that again any time soon.

136 spiderx  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:20:13pm

i was just wondering since LFG used to be a republican blog

137 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:22:13pm

re: #123 spiderx

how many here used to be republicans?

I'm a recovering Republican. Used to be one of the rarest breeds: a moderate Republican.

138 Killgore Trout  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:22:46pm

re: #123 spiderx

how many here used to be republicans?

I was never a Republican but I was a Republican leaner from about 2004 until about mid-2008. I sat out the last election because of Palin and Obama's campaign didn't appeal to me.

139 Mostly sane, most of the time.  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:23:43pm

re: #125 Targetpractice

Question is, will he accept her taking responsibility, leading to strengthening of the accusations that he's "hiding behind her skirt," or will accept responsibility for her actions and thus face accusations that he was "too late" in doing so?

No, no, no. If a woman can be Secretary of State, she should be able to accept responsibility for a failure, just like a man.

No special rules for women.

140 AK-47%  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:24:17pm

I was always ready to listen to their point of view and was prepared to vote for one if they made sound argument. Those disappeared in 2008.

141 CuriousLurker  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:25:21pm

re: #140 AK-47%

I was always ready to listen to their point of view and was prepared to vote for one if they made sound argument. Those disappeared in 2008.

Ditto.

142 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:25:21pm

re: #139 Mostly sane, most of the time.

No, no, no. If a woman can be Secretary of State, she should be able to accept responsibility for a failure, just like a man.

No special rules for women.

She "serves at his pleasure," so he has to hold himself responsible for her "failure." Else he's shirking responsibility, like Clinton did with Reno after Waco...or so I'm told.

143 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:25:52pm

re: #139 Mostly sane, most of the time.

No, no, no. If a woman can be Secretary of State, she should be able to accept responsibility for a failure, just like a man.

No special rules for women.

Sure there are. If she kowtows, she's allowed to let her knees touch the ground.

144 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:26:54pm

I've respected moderate Republicans in the past. Always liked Tom Davis and John Warner here in Virginia but those guys are out of office and they've been pretty much replaced by nuts like Ken Cuccinnelli and others who care more about being cultural warriors than actually getting shit done. I'm liberal on both social and economic issues but I'm willing to listen if you're fairly economically moderate and not someone who goes all out culture warrior on social issues. So, I think the Republican Party of the 60's and 70's is one I could have supported on some levels and easily respected. I don't respect the current incarnation of the party and I certainly don't respect Mitt and his running mate and their party's leadership.

145 Mostly sane, most of the time.  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:27:05pm

re: #142 Targetpractice

She "serves at his pleasure," so he has to hold himself responsible for her "failure." Else he's shirking responsibility, like Clinton did with Reno after Waco...or so I'm told.

Every executive branch appointee serves at the president's pleasure.

146 b_sharp  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:27:40pm

When does it start?

147 spiderx  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:27:48pm

For anyone who is unsure about this election i would just tell them that a vote for Romney is a vote of approval for how radical the right wing has become. A large part of the republican base believes that Obama is a socialist, muslim infiltrator that wants to destroy the country. They believe that if Obama is re-elected the country will not last another four years. If Romney wins these people will have never been proven wrong. They will hold on to the belief that they were just four years away from losing their country. It is very dangerous for a large part of the electorate to be allowed to hold on to this belief. An Obama victory ends this nonsense and in the long run brings back the moderate republicans too.

148 wrenchwench  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:28:09pm

re: #143 Decatur Deb

Sure there are. If she kowtows, she's allowed to let her knees touch the ground.

Dude, that's pushups, not kowtows.

149 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:28:12pm
150 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:28:48pm

re: #146 Gangnam Style

When does it start?

9 PM Eastern

151 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:29:52pm

re: #149 Gus

[Embedded content]

Nice friend Pam Geller has- an unrepentant murderer who thinks he should be thanked.

152 Mostly sane, most of the time.  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:30:02pm

re: #146 Gangnam Style

When does it start?

Well, according to the video I just watched, first we will have the warning that the ground at the caldera will rise, probably ten feet. Then there will be frequent earthquakes. This is the cue to evacuate. Eventually the whole caldera will blow, sending, approximately, all of Wyoming into the air along with poisonous gases.

Now, if the ash doesn't cause a lung disease that will kill you within months, (assuming you evacuated like you were told), we will all die from starvation because the gases will cause an ice age that will mean no growing seasons.

Um, you were talking about the Yellowstone caldera erupting, right? You were pretty non-specific there.

153 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:30:30pm

re: #148 wrenchwench

Dude, that's pushups, not kowtows.

Yul Brynner would accept it.

154 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:32:27pm

re: #145 Mostly sane, most of the time.

Every executive branch appointee serves at the president's pleasure.

Indeed, but apparently even if a President is kept totally in the dark, he still has to accept responsibility for his underlings fuck-ups. Else he's another Nixon, or so they seem to believe.

155 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:33:36pm

re: #149 Gus

Radovan Karadžić is truly a textbook example of the intersection cognitive dissonance and magical thinking.

He really sees himself as a Joan of Arc type, doing God's work.

For real.

And there are some things that cannot be fixed.

Ever.

156 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:34:20pm

re: #152 Mostly sane, most of the time.

Well, according to the video I just watched, first we will have the warning that the ground at the caldera will rise, probably ten feet. Then there will be frequent earthquakes. This is the cue to evacuate. Eventually the whole caldera will blow, sending, approximately, all of Wyoming into the air along with poisonous gases.

Now, if the ash doesn't cause a lung disease that will kill you within months, (assuming you evacuated like you were told), we will all die from starvation because the gases will cause an ice age that will mean no growing seasons.

Um, you were talking about the Yellowstone caldera erupting, right? You were pretty non-specific there.

Win.

157 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:34:57pm

re: #155 researchok

Radovan Karadžić is truly an textbook example of the intersection cognitive dissonance and magical thinking.

He really sees himself as a Joan of Arc type, doing God's work.

For real.

And there are some things that cannot be fixed.

Ever.

Didn't work for Joan of Arc, either.

158 Mostly sane, most of the time.  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:35:48pm

re: #157 Decatur Deb

Didn't work for Joan of Arc, either.

Except that she wasn't evil.

159 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:35:58pm

re: #157 Decatur Deb

Radovan Karadžić lives in this world- he just doesn't exist in it.

160 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:36:21pm

re: #158 Mostly sane, most of the time.

Except that she wasn't evil.

Shakespeare begs to differ.

161 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:36:56pm

re: #158 Mostly sane, most of the time.

In our version of history.

But she too killed in God's name.

162 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:37:20pm
163 Mostly sane, most of the time.  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:37:42pm

re: #160 Decatur Deb

Shakespeare begs to differ.

Shakespeare also "believed" in fairies and ghosts.

We could also hold him directly responsible for the emo teenager love story, except that I think emo teenagers are pretty eternally with us.

164 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:37:49pm

re: #162 Gus

Oh great...

Image: 20121015-204028.jpg

Derp.

165 Targetpractice  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:38:00pm

re: #162 Gus

Oh great...

Image: 20121015-204028.jpg

*facepalm*

166 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:38:21pm

I was unaware that Israel had been nuked.
e_e

167 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:38:27pm

You just see guys like Karadžić and your faith in humanity as a whole just dies a little. We're such a complicated species. Capable of so much good but at the same time capable of so much evil and destruction. Just makes you wonder if we'll ever learn a damn thing from the past.

168 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:38:31pm

re: #162 Gus

An entry in the Stupid Olympics

169 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:38:52pm

There's more!

[Link: apsuperpac.org...]

170 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:39:18pm
171 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:39:21pm

re: #162 Gus

Oh great...

Image: 20121015-204028.jpg

It's crap like this that makes me worry.

172 Obdicut  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:39:27pm

re: #136 spiderx

i was just wondering since LFG used to be a republican blog

I'm a former Republican, but that was quite awhile ago. The anti-gay crusade of the GOP has been a big turnoff for a long time, and they really have been embracing Ayn Rand style economics for a long time now too, that also made me get out.

173 William Barnett-Lewis  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:39:55pm

re: #158 Mostly sane, most of the time.

Except that she wasn't evil.

Depends on who you ask, now doesn't it? She got fried by the British (the first french fry? ;) but also got a martyr's halo once she was safely dead. Hard to know what to say about anyone involved with that mess.

174 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:40:47pm

re: #163 Mostly sane, most of the time.

Shakespeare also "believed" in fairies and ghosts.

We could also hold him directly responsible for the emo teenager love story, except that I think emo teenagers are pretty eternally with us.

Got a beautiful illustrated copy of da Porto's Giuilleta e Romeo. Homeboy from Vicenza.

175 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:40:51pm

re: #170 Gus

Brought to you by Clear Channel.

176 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:41:33pm

re: #162 Gus

Oh great...

Image: 20121015-204028.jpg

i see iran has been testing long range missiles in somebody's imagination again

177 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:41:47pm

A little more from the author of The finish, about the killing of Bin Laden Another eye popper, bound to incite howls of protest

Danger Room: What role did torture play in developing the evidence that led the U.S. to bin Laden?

Bowden: It was definitely part of the process. There was never a simple moment you could point to and say, they used some coercive tactic on someone and they coughed up a key piece of information. That’s not how it happened. Essentially, the location of “Hamid the Kuwaiti,” the courier who them led to bin Laden, emerged from a number of different interrogations over years. In some instances, people like Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who was tortured if you consider waterboarding torture, gave them false information. But that false information was telling. It contradicted what others had told them in a very telling way. What is clear is that a number of the key interviews in the process were conducted using coercive interrogations.

I don’t think you can say that you wouldn’t have gotten same results without torture. I don’t think there’s enough evidence to say that. But what is certain is that these key interviews were coercive.

178 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:42:00pm

I need to learn more about Joan of Arc now that you all are discussing her. If there's one subject area I wish I could learn more about, it's Europe prior to the French Revolution.

179 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:43:28pm

re: #178 HappyWarrior

I need to learn more about Joan of Arc now that you all are discussing her. If there's one subject area I wish I could learn more about, it's Europe prior to the French Revolution.

War, war, war, starvation, plague, starvation, crusade, war, crusade, inquisition.

180 Someone Please Beam Me Up!  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:43:38pm

re: #173 William Barnett-Lewis

Depends on who you ask, now doesn't it? She got fried by the British (the first french fry? ;) but also got a martyr's halo once she was safely dead. Hard to know what to say about anyone involved with that mess.

The source of the current good opinion is the transcripts of her trial. She was an evil witch (except in France) before that.

181 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:44:30pm

re: #177 Daniel Ballard

The efficacy of torture, like abortion, is a never ending debate.

182 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:45:47pm

Brought to you by...

Official PAC Name:
AMERICAN PRINCIPLES
Location: MIAMI, FL 33180
Industry: Misc Issues; Other single-issue or ideological groups
Treasurer: LAOR, EYTAN
FEC Committee ID: C00492579
(Look up actual documents filed at the FEC)

183 HappyWarrior  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:46:30pm

re: #179 Decatur Deb

War, war, war, starvation, plague, starvation, crusade, war, crusade, inquisition.

Hey no spoilers!

184 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:47:03pm

Waiting for this damn debate is torture.

185 Mostly sane, most of the time.  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:48:00pm

re: #179 Decatur Deb

War, war, war, starvation, plague, starvation, crusade, war, crusade, inquisition.

Total and utter lack of sanitation and hygiene is how I usually think of it.

186 William Barnett-Lewis  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:48:03pm

re: #179 Decatur Deb

War, war, war, starvation, plague, starvation, crusade, war, crusade, inquisition.

+one beautiful burst of art & music at the end of that list. Then more wars until the French revolt and the Artillery guy gets in charge which turns the wars up to 11.

187 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:48:06pm

re: #179 Decatur Deb

War, war, war, starvation, plague, ancient aliens, starvation, crusade, war, crusade, inquisition.

;)

188 darthstar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:49:30pm

Okay...so does anyone know who the 'town hall' attendees are or how they were chosen? Did the Romney campaign get to pick the crowd? Did Obama's team? Were they given 50/50 tickets to distribute as they wished? Or is it simply a random group of people chosen by CNN (and we know how they like to keep things fair and balanced)?

189 allegro  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:49:45pm

re: #184 Reverend Mother Ramallo

Waiting for this damn debate is torture.

It would be so much awesomesauce to see Bristol Palin finally and deservedly booted from Dancing With the Stars just minutes before a debate in which Obama gives a few swift kicks to Romney's ass.

190 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:50:53pm

re: #188 darthstar

Okay...so does anyone know who the 'town hall' attendees are or how they were chosen? Did the Romney campaign get to pick the crowd? Did Obama's team? Were they given 50/50 tickets to distribute as they wished? Or is it simply a random group of people chosen by CNN (and we know how they like to keep things fair and balanced)?

They are supposed to be undecideds gathered by Gallup.

191 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:51:27pm

re: #188 darthstar

Okay...so does anyone know who the 'town hall' attendees are or how they were chosen? Did the Romney campaign get to pick the crowd? Did Obama's team? Were they given 50/50 tickets to distribute as they wished? Or is it simply a random group of people chosen by CNN (and we know how they like to keep things fair and balanced)?

Gallup picked them, they're supposed to be all "undecided." They supposedly write the questions, but the moderator chooses which ones get asked.

192 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:52:23pm

re: #182 Gus

What am I looking for?

193 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:52:50pm

I do not understand how anyone can still be 'undecided'.
What piece of info are they missing?
My $0.02

194 Decatur Deb  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:52:51pm

re: #186 William Barnett-Lewis

+one beautiful burst of art & music at the end of that list. Then more wars until the French revolt and the Artillery guy gets in charge which turns the wars up to 11.

"Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl."

--Fred

195 allegro  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:53:11pm

re: #190 Reverend Mother Ramallo

They are supposed to be undecideds gathered by Gallup.

So it's an audience of low information, willfully ignorant idiots citizens of this fine nation.

196 darthstar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:53:30pm

re: #190 Reverend Mother Ramallo

They are supposed to be undecideds gathered by Gallup.

Undecideds? Fuck. Anyone with a pulse who is still undecided by now is either heavily sedated or limits their TV viewing to Survivor and Honey Boo Boo. I'd rather have a group of moderate Republicans and Democrats filtered by their lack of membership in either the Tea Party or Code Pink.

197 darthstar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:54:25pm

re: #193 Varek Raith

I do not understand how anyone can still be 'undecided'.
What piece of info are they missing?
My $0.02

Their 22nd chromosome.

198 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:55:12pm

re: #187 Varek Raith

;)

I like history too.

//

199 darthstar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:55:34pm

Seriously...I'd hate to be on national television three weeks before an election telling people I didn't know who I wanted to vote for in this election. I wouldn't be able to show my face in public after that.

200 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:55:35pm
201 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:55:57pm

re: #198 Gus

I like history too.

//

Image: 783x.jpg

202 William Barnett-Lewis  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:56:31pm

re: #194 Decatur Deb

"Artillery adds dignity to what would otherwise be a vulgar brawl."

--Fred

But only if he's playing a flute concerto to accompany it.

203 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:56:56pm

re: #184 Reverend Mother Ramallo

Waiting for this damn debate is torture.

waiting will seem like ice cream once the real torture begins

204 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:57:11pm

re: #192 researchok

What am I looking for?

Nothing. Seems like a pretty deranged PAC with all those crazy billboards. And that 1.89/gallon bullshit. It was 1.89 because we were at rock bottom.

205 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:57:14pm

re: #195 allegro

So it's an audience of low information, willfully ignorant idiots citizens of this fine nation.

Yep.
I have to prepare for statements like:
"The deficit exploded under your watch"
"You said change, why didn't you try to work with congress"...

I hope I'm wrong

206 engineer cat  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:58:11pm

re: #191 JamesWI

Gallup picked them, they're supposed to be all "undecided." They supposedly write the questions, but the moderator chooses which ones get asked.

juries are supposed to be "undecided" as well, and there are far more legal protections to keep them uncorrupted than for a teevee show, but still somehow the plants get planted

i expect sabotage

207 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:58:38pm

re: #205 Reverend Mother Ramallo

Yep.
I have to prepare for statements like:
"The deficit exploded under your watch"
"You said change, why didn't you try to work with congress"...

I hope I'm wrong

WHERE'S MAH UNICORN?!?!!

208 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:58:38pm

re: #204 Gus

Nothing. Seems like a pretty deranged PAC with all those crazy billboards. And that 1.89/gallon bullshit. It was 1.89 because we were at rock bottom.

Welcome to Citizens United.

I wonder how much he pulls out for himself.

209 Daniel Ballard  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:58:45pm

re: #193 Varek Raith

There are those highly unimpressed by either candidate. They want neither. Ergo, undecided. My father fits this description.

210 Gus  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:59:07pm

re: #208 researchok

Welcome to Citizens United.

I wonder how much he pulls out for himself.

We'll never know.

211 researchok  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 3:59:52pm

re: #210 Gus

The wonderful world of 'expenses'.

212 JamesWI  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 4:00:16pm

re: #206 engineer cat

juries are supposed to be "undecided" as well, and there are far more legal protections to keep them uncorrupted than for a teevee show, but still somehow the plants get planted

i expect sabotage

Well, like I said, Crowley picks the questions that are going to get asked. So unless she's in the tank, sabotage is pretty hard. I mean, there's probably like a couple hundred people in there, and she picks maybe.....12, at most?

213 Sheila Broflovski  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 4:02:31pm

re: #162 Gus

Oh great...

Image: 20121015-204028.jpg

FAIL.

214 Reverend Mother Ramallo  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 4:02:50pm

re: #207 Varek Raith

WHERE'S MAH UNICORN?!?!!

LOL!!!
That at least would bearable.

215 Varek Raith  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 4:08:33pm

re: #209 Daniel Ballard

There are those highly unimpressed by either candidate. They want neither. Ergo, undecided. My father fits this description.

In that case they aren't undecided.
;)

216 darthstar  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 4:15:44pm

re: #206 engineer cat

juries are supposed to be "undecided" as well, and there are far more legal protections to keep them uncorrupted than for a teevee show, but still somehow the plants get planted

i expect sabotage

We'll know if Romney knowingly smirks during a question for President Obama.

217 EmmaAnne  Tue, Oct 16, 2012 4:31:31pm

re: #2 Obdicut

I'm doing get out the vote stuff. I suggest anyone with any spare time do the same.

Yep. Just delivered voter guides today, to coincide with people receiving their mail-in ballots. This reminds our people to vote, and encourages them to vote the whole ballot.


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