Daily Kos/SEIU Poll Has Romney in the Lead
A new poll commissioned by Daily Kos and SEIU has Mitt Romney with a four-point lead, and a margin of error of 2.5 points: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney’s best numbers of the week.
Markos points out that these results are unusual, possibly indicating an outlier:
At a time when other polls are moving back in the president’s direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:
Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55
That Sunday sample, about a quarter of the total, was entirely responsible for Romney’s favorable numbers. That’s why the good pollsters collect data over multiple days, to smooth out such irregularities. And at 400 respondents (or so), Sunday had a single-day MoE of 4.9 percent. Lots of polls float around with worse. On the other hand, Saturday’s sample MoE was 3.92 percent, while Friday’s was 3.97 percent. And with no external news even suggesting the big Sunday collapse, it certainly smells like an outlier.