Ohio Polls Show Solid Lead for Obama

A lock?
Politics • Views: 35,448

The state of Ohio is perhaps the most critical swing state this election, and the latest polls are strong evidence that President Obama’s got it locked up. Via Nate Silver on Twitter:

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351 comments
1 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:46:51pm

Too soon. Stakes. through. hearts.

2 darthstar  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:47:40pm

Nothing's a lock. Get out and vote. I won't take anything for granted until I hear Mitt Romney give a concession speech where he talks about how he ran a clean campaign and respects the result of the election.

3 Iwouldprefernotto  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:48:21pm

This is great news.

Can someone explain why Florida is in play? I really don't get it. I know there are religious nut cases up north (the ones that want to kill abortion doctors), but is the entire state really that conservative?

4 nemus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:49:38pm

re: #3 Iwouldprefernotto

This is great news.

Can someone explain why Florida is in play? I really don't get it. I know there are religious nut cases up north (the ones that want to kill abortion doctors), but is the entire state really that conservative?

Well, I'm not - my girl's not.. most of our friends in the state aren't. With that being said, there's a whole lot of derp that does go on in this state - we just hope that sanity wins out.

5 darthstar  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:49:53pm

re: #3 Iwouldprefernotto

This is great news.

Can someone explain why Florida is in play? I really don't get it. I know there are religious nut cases up north (the ones that want to kill abortion doctors), but is the entire state really that conservative?

The northern half of the state is very conservative. Uber-red.

6 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:50:19pm

re: #3 Iwouldprefernotto

This is great news.

Can someone explain why Florida is in play? I really don't get it. I know there are religious nut cases up north (the ones that want to kill abortion doctors), but is the entire state really that conservative?

Florida is a wild mix of everything, much of it bad. In the old days, it was the lynchiest of the lynching. It led in prison population when last I checked.

7 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:51:43pm
8 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:52:14pm

OK, Dark. Why the downding on this one?

9 blueraven  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:53:14pm

re: #1 Decatur Deb

re: #2 darthstar

All true. But I do think that Romney's Jeep ad was a real show of desperation. Also his recent attempt to expand the map in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania just says to me he knows he is well behind in Ohio.

Why would he gamble on an ad that was such a blatant falsehood? Trying for a few low info voters...but then the auto companies and newspapers stepped in.
Big gamble and big loss if you ask me.

10 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:53:21pm

Florida on the SPLC Hate map:

[Link: www.splcenter.org...]

Second only to GA in the old confederacy.

11 recusancy  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:53:53pm

re: #3 Iwouldprefernotto

This is great news.

Can someone explain why Florida is in play? I really don't get it. I know there are religious nut cases up north (the ones that want to kill abortion doctors), but is the entire state really that conservative?

If it wasn't for all the transplants and snow birds it would basically be another alabama/mississippi.

12 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:54:56pm

re: #11 recusancy

If it wasn't for all the transplants and snow birds it would basically be another alabama/mississippi.

Yep. Half the state is the Deep South, the other half is transplants.

13 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:55:08pm

re: #8 wrenchwench

OK, Dark. Why the downding on this one?

Reality has a liberal bias.

Election night might be over early. Once the polls close in the West results should be available for Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. If Obama sweeps those three he wins.

14 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:55:36pm

re: #9 blueraven

re: #2 darthstar

All true. But I do think that Romney's Jeep ad was a real show of desperation. Also his recent attempt to expand the map in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania just says to me he knows he is well behind in Ohio.

Why would he gamble on an ad that was such a blatant falsehood? Trying for a few low info voters...but then the auto companies and newspapers stepped in.
Big gamble and big loss if you ask me.

Can't begin to analyze a cypher. Deep contempt for the 99.9% would be a guess.

15 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:56:30pm

Willard totally believes Ohio is in the bag, that's why he's shifted his focus to Wisconsin.

16 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:56:31pm

re: #13 goddamnedfrank

Reality has a liberal bias.

Election night might be over early. Once the polls close in the West results should be available for Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. If Obama sweeps those three he wins.

Also, you can't trust that Nate Silver guy. He's not fat and ugly.

17 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:56:38pm

re: #8 wrenchwench

OK, Dark. Why the downding on this one?

It's gone now. My error.

I did not error when I went to vote early today. I did vote straight Republican, save for a Democratic candidate for the Chicago Metropolitan Water Reclamation District whom the Chicago Tribune had endorsed (the GOP only put up two candidates and three seats were up for election).

18 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:57:58pm

re: #13 goddamnedfrank

Reality has a liberal bias.

Election night might be over early. Once the polls close in the West results should be available for Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. If Obama sweeps those three he wins.

Which is why you can be sure that, right up til 99% of districts have reported in, we'll see the media playing up each swing state as "too close to call."

19 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:58:06pm

re: #17 Dark_Falcon

It's gone now. My error.

I did not error when I went to vote early today. I did vote straight Republican, save for a Democratic candidate for the Chicago Metropolitan Water Reclamation District whom the Chicago Tribune had endorsed (the GOP only put up two candidates and three seats were up for election).

Downding for voting for all those Republicans, upding for voting, upding for correcting article downding. Net: one upding.

20 Talking Point Detective  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:58:08pm

re: #2 darthstar

Nothing's a lock.

That is true - but consider the odds that 7 polls would all be wrong. And consider the odds that Romney can turn that around in less than a week.

Long odds.

21 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:58:55pm

re: #16 wrenchwench

Also, you can't trust that Nate Silver guy. He's not fat and ugly.

True, reliability is directly proportional to the number of chins one possesses.

22 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:59:15pm

re: #7 Sheila Broflovski

I almost laughed out loud at that. Only the fact that my boss is close by stopped me.

23 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 3:59:56pm

re: #20 Talking Point Detective

That is true - but consider the odds that 7 polls would all be wrong. And consider the odds that Romney can turn that around in less than a week.

Long odds.

Majorities are not enough. It has to be put beyond the reach of felons and Supreme Court justices.

24 Talking Point Detective  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:00:06pm

Looks like promoting lies about the auto industry was perhaps not the greatest electoral strategy?

25 alpuz  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:00:37pm

re: #15 Targetpractice

That explains the ad blitz. It's worse than both 2010 & the recall elections.

26 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:00:39pm

re: #20 Talking Point Detective

That is true - but consider the odds that 7 polls would all be wrong. And consider the odds that Romney can turn that around in less than a week.

Long odds.

Silver commented on that the other day. Long story short, if a candidate holds a better than 2.5 point lead in Ohio at 10 days out, he's got an 82% of winning there.

27 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:00:46pm

re: #20 Talking Point Detective

That is true - but consider the odds that 7 polls would all be wrong. And consider the odds that Romney can turn that around in less than a week.

Long odds.

And consider the odds now that his bullshit ads there are actually getting called out by the media.

28 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:00:49pm

re: #7 Sheila Broflovski

[Embedded content]

Image: image.jpg

29 darthstar  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:01:40pm

re: #9 blueraven

re: #2 darthstar

Why would he gamble on an ad that was such a blatant falsehood? Trying for a few low info voters...but then the auto companies and newspapers stepped in.
Big gamble and big loss if you ask me.

He's got nothing left and he knows it. Six days from now, he'll just be another embarrassment for Republicans to distance themselves from and he has nobody to blame for that but himself.

Half the Michigan voters who say they're definitely voting for Obama cite the auto bailout as their primary motivation - the same is probably true in Ohio.

30 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:02:27pm

re: #7 Sheila Broflovski

[Embedded content]

LOL Dark, why are you retweeting this one?

You honestly think Romney is winning Ohio right now?

31 engineer cat  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:03:52pm

foxed up news has upgraded the president in its latest national poll from one behind to tied up

32 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:06:52pm

Paul Ryan's defense of the Jeep ad today:

"GM and Chrysler are expanding their production overseas. These are facts that voters deserve to know as they listen to the claims President Obama and his campaign are making."

So, the voters deserve to know that Obama's bailout has led to these companies being strong enough that they are able to expand their production?

Um.........thanks for the Obama endorsement?

33 Talking Point Detective  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:07:28pm

re: #26 Targetpractice

Silver commented on that the other day. Long story short, if a candidate holds a better than 2.5 point lead in Ohio at 10 days out, he's got an 82% of winning there.

I've posted it here before - but check out this site. A geek professor from Princeton - who got the Electoral College numbers precisely and off by one vote in 2004, 2008.

His site is temporarily crippled (he's posting a Google cache version) - but he uses a completely different methodology - basing his estimates only on swing state polls. He puts the probability of an Obama EV victory at above 95%.

[Link: election.princeton.edu...]

34 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:09:11pm

Looks like the dam finally broke on Intrade this morning. Obama @ 68.3%.

All 15 bookies on oddschecker now giving better than 2 to 1 against a Romney win, sportingbet.com going as steep as 13 to 5.

35 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:10:19pm

re: #30 JamesWI

LOL Dark, why are you retweeting this one?

[Embedded content]

You honestly think Romney is winning Ohio right now?

What amounts to a childish Tweet no less.

36 Gretchen G.Tiger  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:11:00pm

Have to wonder how many are like this.

I think a lot of households are split this year.

37 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:11:13pm

re: #32 JamesWI

Paul Ryan's defense of the Jeep ad today:

So, the voters deserve to know that Obama's bailout has led to these companies being strong enough that they are able to expand their production?

Um.........thanks for the Obama endorsement?

I go back and forth.
Either they're really dumb, or they think everyone else is.
Hell. It's both.

38 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:11:22pm

re: #32 JamesWI

Paul Ryan's defense of the Jeep ad today:

So, the voters deserve to know that Obama's bailout has led to these companies being strong enough that they are able to expand their production?

Um.........thanks for the Obama endorsement?

Haha. I hadn't even thought of that. They're basically making Obama's argument for him and they're too stupid to realize it.

39 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:11:56pm

As Rick Santorum so brilliantly put it (paraphrasing) "We'll never have the smart people on our side."

40 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:12:17pm

re: #39 JamesWI

As Rick Santorum so brilliant put it (paraphrasing) "We'll never have the smart people on our side."

[Embedded content]

ROFL

41 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:12:52pm

re: #33 Talking Point Detective

I've posted it here before - but check out this site. A geek professor from Princeton - who got the Electoral College numbers precisely and off by one vote in 2004, 2008.

His site is temporarily crippled (he's posting a Google cache version) - but he uses a completely different methodology - basing his estimates only on swing state polls. He puts the probability of an Obama EV victory at above 95%.

[Link: election.princeton.edu...]

Yeah, Nate Silver is noting the same discrepancy between national polling and state polling, which is driving the media's "Obama wins EC, loses PV" story. He stated that there's only one of three possibilities: That Obama's support in non-swing states has seriously sagged (none of the polls run in those states supports this), that the state polls are totally off (which is out of line with the last two elections), or that the national polling methods are totally out of whack.

42 alpuz  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:13:40pm

Bill Clinton's speaking here soon. The doors open in about 5 minutes. My better half went(I'm handing out candy & cooking the kid dinner). She called and said the lines are around the block. That's on Halloween night with less than a one day notice. Seems like a good sign to me.

43 danarchy  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:14:27pm

I know how she feels.

Youtube Video
44 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:16:25pm

For Charles (if he's here) - One thing I've noticed a couple times, if I go back and edit a comment that includes a Tweet (editing my own text, not anything in the Tweet itself), the Tweet no longer shows up in the normal embedded form. Instead, it's just a blockquote of text with a link to the tweet itself.

45 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:18:01pm

re: #36 Gretchen G.Tiger

Have to wonder how many are like this.

I think a lot of households are split this year.

Like mine. :)

46 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:18:31pm

re: #44 JamesWI

Now for some reason, it's showing my other post that has a tweet in it the same way (one that I didn't edit), but everyone else's posts on here still have them embedded.

Something must be going weird on one end here.

47 Gretchen G.Tiger  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:20:41pm

re: #45 Sheila Broflovski

Like mine. :)

and mine

48 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:21:14pm

To test it out, and also to laugh at the Romney campaign:

49 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:22:40pm

LOL @ Joe Biden for citing the Cleveland Plain Dealer as "One Of The Major Newspapers In This State" while speaking in Florida:

Youtube Video
50 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:24:01pm

re: #45 Sheila Broflovski

Like mine. :)

re: #47 Gretchen G.Tiger

and mine

Some days wife is a more rabid Dem than I. Might be hormonal.

51 Iwouldprefernotto  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:24:21pm

re: #49 Dark_Falcon

LOL @ Joe Biden for citing the Cleveland Plain Dealer as "One Of The Major Newspapers In This State" while speaking in Florida:

[Embedded content]

Biden made a mistake about a newspaper? How many lives were lost because of this?

52 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:24:42pm

re: #49 Dark_Falcon

LOL @ Joe Biden for citing the Cleveland Plain Dealer as "One Of The Major Newspapers In This State" while speaking in Florida:

[Embedded content]

Too bad people already went back and found out he actually said "One of the major newspapers in THE state."

Sorry, no gaffe for you to distract from your team's failing campaign.

53 Charles Johnson  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:26:50pm

re: #48 JamesWI

Looks like embedded tweets need to have two linefeeds before the em-dash (—) that precedes the author's name, and for some reason they're being removed.

I'll check into it.

54 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:27:29pm

re: #39 JamesWI

Works here...

55 Interesting Times in Benghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:27:36pm

re: #47 Gretchen G.Tiger

and mine

Can't imagine being in that situation without wanting to go full-bore Lysistrata...

56 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:28:15pm

re: #53 Charles Johnson

Looks like embedded tweets need to have two linefeeds before the em-dash (—) that precedes the author's name, and for some reason they're being removed.

I'll check into it.

You might as well be speaking klingon to me, but thanks

57 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:28:26pm

I know a lot of you are numbers people and love stuff like this, but regardless of their results, the only poll that matters is on election day. No matter who you are voting for, GET OUT AND VOTE!

58 Charles Johnson  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:28:45pm

re: #54 wrenchwench

Yeah, when I edit a post those linefeeds are preserved, too. You're not deleting them, are you, James?

59 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:29:16pm

re: #3 Iwouldprefernotto

This is great news.

Can someone explain why Florida is in play? I really don't get it. I know there are religious nut cases up north (the ones that want to kill abortion doctors), but is the entire state really that conservative?

Because the poor seniors are buying the bullshit Romney/Ryan are selling.

60 Gretchen G.Tiger  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:29:26pm

re: #55 Interesting Times

Can't imagine being in that situation without wanting to go full-bore Lysistrata...

Nah, we disagree on a lot of things.

61 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:29:46pm

re: #57 efuseakay

I know a lot of you are numbers people and love stuff like this, but regardless of their results, the only poll that matters is on election day. No matter who you are voting for, GET OUT AND VOTE!

And the top of the ballot is not the only part that counts! We need more good Senators and Representatives, and on down the ballot.

62 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:30:13pm

LOL

Who wants to bet it's some random Dem running for a House seat who already has no chance of winning?

63 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:30:26pm

re: #49 Dark_Falcon

LOL @ Joe Biden for citing the Cleveland Plain Dealer as "One Of The Major Newspapers In This State" while speaking in Florida:

[Embedded content]

Game changer right there.

64 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:30:58pm

re: #39 JamesWI

Crowd at Romney rally in Jacksonville inexplicably chanting "4 more days!" Until Sunday?— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) October 31, 2012

That's especially funny because Sunday and Monday are the only two days they can't vote early.

65 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:31:19pm

re: #58 Charles Johnson

Yeah, when I edit a post those linefeeds are preserved, too. You're not deleting them, are you, James?

I edited it to add a "ly" to the end of "brilliant" because I somehow left that out. I don't think I deleted anything.

Same thing happened to me the other day.

66 Gretchen G.Tiger  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:31:41pm

re: #50 Decatur Deb

re: #47 Gretchen G.Tiger

Some days wife is a more rabid Dem than I. Might be hormonal.

This year has really brought it out in me. I can't begin to tell you. . . .

67 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:31:48pm

re: #55 Interesting Times

Can't imagine being in that situation without wanting to go full-bore Lysistrata...

Pushing at a man that hard over who he votes for sounds like a recipe for a fairly nasty argument from where I sit.

68 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:31:51pm

Gonna try it again on my previous comment

69 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:32:14pm

re: #62 JamesWI

LOL

[Embedded content]

Who wants to bet it's some random Dem running for a House seat who already has no chance of winning?

Right wing media:

• Tabloid journalism
• Yellow journalism
• Trashy
• Cheap
• Ignorant

70 funky chicken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:32:26pm

re: #29 darthstar

He's got nothing left and he knows it. Six days from now, he'll just be another embarrassment for Republicans to distance themselves from and he has nobody to blame for that but himself.

Half the Michigan voters who say they're definitely voting for Obama cite the auto bailout as their primary motivation - the same is probably true in Ohio.

You mean going full metal wingnut wasn't a good plan?

71 Gretchen G.Tiger  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:32:48pm

re: #67 Dark_Falcon

Pushing at a man that hard over who he votes for sounds like a recipe for a fairly nasty argument from where I sit.

You aren't married, you couldn't understand.

72 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:33:17pm

re: #15 Targetpractice

Willard totally believes Ohio is in the bag, that's why he's shifted his focus to Wisconsin.

Not to go all tin foil hatty, but I'm concerned about all the GOP governed states, all the voter suppression, all the electronic voting machines, and whatever other dirty tricks are being played out.

Polls mean nothing if your vote is stolen.

73 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:33:31pm

This time I went back to comment #62, and deleted the "LOL" and typed it back in. The tweet's showing up as the plain blockquote with a link.

74 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:33:39pm

Polling data from Pew. Worth reading, so I'll just post it and let folks comment on it before I say anything.

75 blueraven  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:34:50pm

Wow intrade R-31/O-69

10 point swing today

76 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:35:11pm

re: #17 Dark_Falcon

It's gone now. My error.

I did not error when I went to vote early today. I did vote straight Republican, save for a Democratic candidate for the Chicago Metropolitan Water Reclamation District whom the Chicago Tribune had endorsed (the GOP only put up two candidates and three seats were up for election).

You in Joe Walsh's district?

77 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:35:41pm

re: #74 Dark_Falcon

Polling data from Pew. Worth reading, so I'll just post it and let folks comment on it before I say anything.

A couple days ago they were talking about that on Twitter. According to those people, Republicans count answering machine messages and door hangers as "Voter contacts," while the Dems only count ACTUAL voter contacts.

78 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:36:24pm

re: #77 JamesWI

A couple days ago they were talking about that on Twitter. According to those people, Republicans count answering machine messages and door hangers as "Voter contacts," while the Dems only count ACTUAL voter contacts.

And the part about Republican "voter contacts" was confirmed by GOP/RNC people on there.

79 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:36:31pm

Also from Pew: Take the Political Party Quiz.

80 Interesting Times in Benghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:36:54pm

re: #60 Gretchen G.Tiger

Nah, we disagree on a lot of things.

Heh. Though sometimes I do wish women would simply withhold sex from Republicans until they upgrade their thinking to modern reality.

I mean really, how ineffective in bed would someone be when they have Todd Akin's knowledge of female anatomy? o_O

81 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:38:29pm

re: #76 efuseakay

You in Joe Walsh's district?

No, I am not. Walsh represents IL-8, I'm in IL-9. Were I in IL-8, I would have voted for Duckworth for reasons of political hygiene.

82 blueraven  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:39:50pm

re: #74 Dark_Falcon

Polling data from Pew. Worth reading, so I'll just post it and let folks comment on it before I say anything.

That is looking nationally

However...

However, Obama voters in the battleground states are more likely than Romney voters to say that they have received emails or text messages about the campaign (43% vs. 30%) or have been visited at home by someone talking about the campaign (25% vs. 14%).

Better ground game

83 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:40:33pm

re: #81 Dark_Falcon

No, I am not. Walsh represents IL-8, I'm in IL-9. Were I in IL-8, I would have voted for Duckworth for reasons of political hygiene.

And these reasons of political hygiene don't affect the presidential race?

84 erik_t  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:41:15pm

re: #83 wrenchwench

And these reasons of political hygiene don't affect the presidential race?

Implicit sneering at wounded veterans is okay, explicit sneering at wounded veterans is not.

I guess it's a start.

85 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:41:25pm

re: #83 wrenchwench

And these reasons of political hygiene don't affect the presidential race?

Political feminine hygiene.

86 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:41:31pm

re: #83 wrenchwench

And these reasons of political hygiene don't affect the presidential race?

With respect, I'm not going to have that conversation with you tonight.

87 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:41:36pm

re: #77 JamesWI

Actually, this might be different than what I was talking about, since this is poll of people saying whether they've been contacted. I think the stuff I was talking about was the numbers released by the parties themselves.

But I still definitely have noticed the difference between the two parties with their "voter contacts" here in WI. We get answering machine messages from Republicans, while the Dems seem to hang up when no one answers. Also, I get tons of mailers from Republican groups (Mitt's super PAC sends a ton) and much fewer from the Dems.

So it definitely does seem like the Dems are more focused on actually engaging the voters, while the Republicans are content to slip something in the mail and leave it at that.

88 researchok  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:42:28pm

The polls may turn out to be right, but after this election season I just won't take anything at face value.

89 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:42:59pm

re: #88 researchok

The polls may turn out to be right, but after this election season I just won't take anything at face value.

Quite Concur.

90 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:43:11pm

re: #81 Dark_Falcon

No, I am not. Walsh represents IL-8, I'm in IL-9. Were I in IL-8, I would have voted for Duckworth for reasons of political hygiene.

Ditto.

91 researchok  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:44:29pm

re: #89 Dark_Falcon

Polling used to be more like traditional journalism.

Now it's more like Bain- let's make money, loots of it, any way we can.

92 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:45:06pm

re: #86 Dark_Falcon

With respect, I'm not going to have that conversation with you tonight.

That's OK, I have to finish a bike, then head home for Green Chile Stew, or is it Red Chile Stew this time?

Some other time.

93 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:45:12pm

I think part of the reason why we get the answering machine messages from the Repubs and not the Dems is that the Repubs are relying more heavily on robo-calls, while the Dems pretty much always are real people.

And I have to seriously doubt anyone is convinced to vote/convinced to change their vote based on robo-calls and mailers.

94 researchok  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:46:15pm

re: #92 wrenchwench

Everybody gets stew, I get hell.

I'm in the wrong line.
//

95 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:46:52pm

re: #87 JamesWI

Actually, this might be different than what I was talking about, since this is poll of people saying whether they've been contacted. I think the stuff I was talking about was the numbers released by the parties themselves.

But I still definitely have noticed the difference between the two parties with their "voter contacts" here in WI. We get answering machine messages from Republicans, while the Dems seem to hang up when no one answers. Also, I get tons of mailers from Republican groups (Mitt's super PAC sends a ton) and much fewer from the Dems.

So it definitely does seem like the Dems are more focused on actually engaging the voters, while the Republicans are content to slip something in the mail and leave it at that.

If we don't get a human at the door or phone, we check the right block and re-enter the data for a return pass.

96 Only The Lurker Knows  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:47:53pm

Night Lizards. An Unseasonable (1734 MST) 74 degrees here in Southern Idaho.

// Climate Change? What Climate Change.

97 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:48:05pm

The world almost came to an end in October of 1962. It's not fiction, it's not speculation — it almost happened — and, in fact, in terms of probability it should have happened.
-- James Blight

Three Men Go To War
Explore the inside story of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis

98 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:49:03pm

re: #87 JamesWI

Actually, this might be different than what I was talking about, since this is poll of people saying whether they've been contacted. I think the stuff I was talking about was the numbers released by the parties themselves.

But I still definitely have noticed the difference between the two parties with their "voter contacts" here in WI. We get answering machine messages from Republicans, while the Dems seem to hang up when no one answers. Also, I get tons of mailers from Republican groups (Mitt's super PAC sends a ton) and much fewer from the Dems.

So it definitely does seem like the Dems are more focused on actually engaging the voters, while the Republicans are content to slip something in the mail and leave it at that.

I phone bank for local Dems., and we've been instructed not to leave messages.
I think it annoys people to have a political message on their voicemail.

99 researchok  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:50:22pm

re: #97 Gus

OK, scheduled for the weekend watch list.

You couldn't post a 1 minute kitty video?

//

100 ProGunLiberal  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:50:23pm

People are saying Sandy did $25-50 billion in damage. That still feels like a massive low-ball. Reasoning is that, while the surge was much lower than Katrina, more was affected, and destruction was still very wide spread. If the damage is less than $100 Billion, I'll be shocked.

101 Interesting Times in Benghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:50:45pm
102 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:51:20pm

It's good to see that Baghdad Bob is finding work these days:

After Brutal Polling Day, Romney Team Reassures That They’ll Win

Mitt Romney’s top staff offered reporters an endless number of reasons they’re going to beat President Obama, on a conference call Wednesday. Not included on their list of Romney advantages: a clear lead in the polls.

“Obama has a political enviroment problem,” Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said. “He’s got an intensity problem, he’s got an image problem and he’s got a ballot problem — and they all add up to a challenging Tuesday next week.”

The call came as recent data shows Obama with a small, but persistent lead in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. Wednesday was a particularly rough day for Romney on that front, featuring new surveys in which Obama held a solid lead in Ohio, surged to an 8-point lead in Wisconsin, and even led by 5 nationally in one case. But Romney aides insisted things were on the right track.

103 researchok  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:51:44pm

re: #100 ProGunLiberal

Boy, do I want you to be wrong.

104 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:52:14pm

It didn't rain all summer, and now it won't stop.
I haven't seen the sun since last Thursday.

105 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:53:02pm

The only time I got a political message on my voicemail that I liked was a robo call from Scarlet Johansen. Pretty sure I got a boner off that one.

/wait, I said that out loud, didn't I?

106 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:54:05pm

re: #105 goddamnedfrank

The only time I got a political message on my voicemail that I liked was a robo call from Scarlet Johansen. Pretty sure I got a boner off that one.

/wait, I said that out loud, didn't I?

God damn, Frank !!!

107 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:55:12pm

re: #98 R.M, Ramallo

I phone bank for local Dems., and we've been instructed not to leave messages.
I think it annoys people to have a political message on their voicemail.

Your thinking is spot on.

108 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:55:33pm

re: #102 Targetpractice

It's good to see that Baghdad Bob is finding work these days:

After Brutal Polling Day, Romney Team Reassures That They’ll Win

Yeah, I posted some of the highlights from that conference call in a previous thread. Including:

- Florida is definitely safe, and they're going to easily win the election day votes by double digits (which is why Romney's team has been campaigning in Florida for pretty much a week straight).

- There's no way we should even be talking about North Carolina, and Obama practically has nobody there (which is simply a massive lie).

- Colorado is definitely "slipping away" from Obama and Romney's team feels pretty safe there. (Which is why Mitt is campaigning there this weekend)

- And to top it off, they feel pretty confident they'll win "at least one" of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Minnesota.
-------

Yes, the Romney team has completely lost their minds.

109 ProGunLiberal  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:56:52pm

re: #103 researchok

I want to as well, but NY and NJ are a much more target heavy area than New Orleans, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Which is to say, you don't need the same amount of destructive power to cause the same amount of damage.

Sandy will be retired.

110 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:56:55pm

re: #108 JamesWI

Yeah, I posted some of the highlights from that conference call in a previous thread. Including:

- Florida is definitely safe, and they're going to easily win the election day votes by double digits (which is why Romney's team has been campaigning in Florida for pretty much a week straight).

- There's no way we should even be talking about North Carolina, and Obama practically has nobody there (which is simply a massive lie).

- Colorado is definitely "slipping away" from Obama and Romney's team feels pretty safe there. (Which is why Mitt is campaigning there this weekend)

- And to top it off, they feel pretty confident they'll win "at least one" of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Minnesota.
-------

Yes, the Romney team has completely lost their minds.

Rove called it the "bandwagon effect" in '00, saying that if a campaign projects the image of being the sure ticket, people will vote for it just to be part of the "winning team."

111 Tigger2  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:57:04pm

re: #93 JamesWI

I think part of the reason why we get the answering machine messages from the Repubs and not the Dems is that the Repubs are relying more heavily on robo-calls, while the Dems pretty much always are real people.

And I have to seriously doubt anyone is convinced to vote/convinced to change their vote based on robo-calls and mailers.

My mailers go straight to the trash from the mailbox without even reading them.

112 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:58:17pm

From the great Steve King - We have to watch out to make sure victims of Hurricane Sandy aren't spending their relief money on "Gucci bags and massage parlors."

Also:

In 2005, he voted against a bill to help Hurricane Katrina victims because he said it cost too much at $51.8 billion. King was one of only 11 members of Congress to oppose the bill.

King said last week that his vote against Hurricane Katrina relief was "a good vote" and "a principled vote."

113 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:58:48pm

re: #110 Targetpractice

Rove called it the "bandwagon effect" in '00, saying that if a campaign projects the image of being the sure ticket, people will vote for it just to be part of the "winning team."

That dog don't bark no mo'

114 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 4:59:50pm

re: #105 goddamnedfrank

The only time I got a political message on my voicemail that I liked was a robo call from Scarlet Johansen. Pretty sure I got a boner off that one.

/wait, I said that out loud, didn't I?

And that, folks, is what we call "thinking with the small head".

/joking around.

115 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:01:01pm

ZOMG! RINO!

116 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:01:23pm

Image: 27christie-obama-blog480.jpg

117 alpuz  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:01:49pm

re: #112 JamesWI

Ya know, from a guy that represent Iowa and all their issues with flooding. I can't wrap my brain around the constant badmouthing of federal aid.

Unless of course he's just a huge dick.

118 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:02:01pm

LOL

"If we pretend bad news isn't real, it doesn't exist!"

119 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:02:30pm

re: #115 Lidane

[Embedded content]

Yeah, I'd say after today, his presidential ambitions as a Republican are over. Or he's betting on a total wingnut meltdown after next Tuesday.

120 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:03:00pm

Yeah Obama got a nicer reception than the Jan Brewer Welcoming Committee

121 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:03:12pm
122 danarchy  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:03:24pm

re: #116 dragonath

Image: 27christie-obama-blog480.jpg

Forgive me, but I think I just had a Laurel and Hardy flashback...

123 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:03:48pm

re: #119 Targetpractice

Yeah, I'd say after today, his presidential ambitions as a Republican are over. Or he's betting on a total wingnut meltdown after next Tuesday.

He's betting on the lunatics flipping their shit, I think. Then he can come in and play the no-nonsense adult to their whining.

124 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:04:42pm

re: #119 Targetpractice

Yeah, I'd say after today, his presidential ambitions as a Republican are over. Or he's betting on a total wingnut meltdown after next Tuesday.

Well, it's easy to trash talk when everything is going smoothly, but when part of your childhood is washed out to sea in one fell swoop, I'm thinking your perspective changes.

125 ghazidor  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:05:00pm

I just noticed that 538 has put Florida back as a toss-up instead of "lean Romney" and upped Obama's odds of winning to 41% vs. Romney's 59%. Better than when Obama had dropped to 31% anyway, and now by Nate's internal number Obama is only behind by 0.6% in the polls too.

126 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:05:07pm

re: #121 Lidane

[Embedded content]

Silver has basically laid out the case that, by this point, in order to believe in a Romney win next Tuesday you have to believe that most, if not all, of the swing-state polls showing an Obama lead are lying.

127 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:05:39pm

re: #124 R.M, Ramallo

Well, it's easy to trash talk when everything is going smoothly, but when part of your childhood is washed out to sea in one fell swoop, I'm thinking your perspective changes.

That too.

Christie just watched his state get slammed by a massive storm. Coddling Mitt Romney moved to the bottom of his To Do list after that.

128 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:06:18pm
129 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:07:18pm

I don't even like Christie but seeing opposing politicians getting along, well... makes me feel kind of fuzzy inside...

Ack! Hairball

130 erik_t  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:07:20pm

re: #126 Targetpractice

Silver has basically laid out the case that, by this point, in order to believe in a Romney win next Tuesday you have to believe that most, if not all, of the swing-state polls showing an Obama lead are lying.

'Lying' is a poor choice of words. It could very well be that all of the statewide polling is honestly missing a fundamental demographic change in next Tuesday's electorate.

131 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:07:21pm

re: #128 JamesWI

Ah, Karl Rove. The yin to Dick Morris's political prediction yang.

132 Lidane  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:07:56pm
133 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:08:32pm
134 Big Joe Ghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:08:35pm

Days Without a GOP Rape Mention = 0

135 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:09:42pm

re: #134 Big Joe

Days Without a GOP Rape Mention = 0

LOL, Rapeublicans.

136 Charles Johnson  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:09:42pm

re: #65 JamesWI

Are you using Windows XP and Firefox?

137 Iwouldprefernotto  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:09:44pm

re: #117 alpuz

Ya know, from a guy that represent Iowa and all their issues with flooding. I can't wrap my brain around the constant badmouthing of federal aid.

Unless of course he's just a huge dick.

Forget flooding. How many billions does Iowa get in farm subsidies?

138 lawhawk  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:11:00pm

re: #132 Lidane

Nate Silver couldn't care what pundits say about him personally. He'd ignore that stuff.

If you can find a real problem with his statistical analysis, that's another story. He'd be open to accepting criticism on that.

139 ProGunLiberal  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:11:08pm

Is CL okay?

140 Big Joe Ghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:11:29pm

Dick Morris is still running with a GOP landslide, taking the senate 53-47.

141 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:12:09pm

re: #119 Targetpractice

Yeah, I'd say after today, his presidential ambitions as a Republican are over. Or he's betting on a total wingnut meltdown after next Tuesday.

I think its not a top priority for him. Chris Christie would rather fix New Jersey than be president. He ran for governor of the Garden State in order to get things done, not burnish his resume.

142 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:12:31pm

re: #117 alpuz

Ya know, from a guy that represent Iowa and all their issues with flooding. I can't wrap my brain around the constant badmouthing of federal aid.

Unless of course he's just a huge dick.

Yup.

143 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:13:15pm

re: #140 Big Joe

Dick Morris is still running with a GOP landslide, taking the senate 53-47.

Dick Morris stopped being a pundit a long ways back. These days he's pretty much a GOP cheerleader.

144 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:13:19pm

re: #136 Charles Johnson

Are you using Windows XP and Firefox?

Vista and Firefox.

145 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:13:59pm

re: #140 Big Joe

Dick Morris is still running with a GOP landslide, taking the senate 53-47.

Same thing Chambers has over at Unskewed. He also has Romney winning by 53% and 359 votes in the EC.

In other news, the Iraqi Information Minister has declared that American soldiers are committing suicide at the gates of Baghdad.//

146 kirghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:14:21pm

re: #143 Dark_Falcon

Dick Morris stopped being a pundit a long ways back. These days he's pretty much a GOP cheerleader.

Dick Morris became a GOP cheerleader a couple of weeks after Clinton fired him. It's just that for a while he was able to pontificate on the "Even the Democrat Dick Morris says..." header.

147 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:14:46pm

re: #136 Charles Johnson

Are you using Windows XP and Firefox?

I mean, shit, don't waste your time if it's something only happening to me. It's not like it's a major problem, and it's not like I foresee a large number of times where I have to go back and edit comments with tweets.

148 alpuz  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:15:47pm

re: #137 Iwouldprefernotto

Yep.. that occurred to me post post.

149 Tigger2  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:16:00pm

re: #143 Dark_Falcon

Dick Morris stopped being a pundit a long ways back. These days he's pretty much a GOP cheerleader.

LOL that's all Fox News is.

150 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:16:41pm

Honestly I'm not surprised. The lies Mitt's tried selling to the Ohio voters are ones that are easy to refute. Especially his latest gem about jeeps. Mitt's in big trouble if he can't win in Ohio.

151 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:17:19pm

re: #149 Tigger2

LOL thats all Fox News is.

Well Fox is more of "How can we distort this to make President Obama look bad?" Close to what you're getting at but not always the same heh.

152 kirghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:17:28pm

re: #147 JamesWI

I mean, shit, don't waste your time if it's something only happening to me. It's not like it's a major problem, and it's not like I foresee a large number of times where I have to go back and edit comments with tweets.

(putting words in Charles's mouth) A problem mentioned means there's code that's wrong. Code that's wrong may blow things up later. Or it may be a minor nuisance not worth fixing. The only way to know is to investigate. So tell, and let the guy who does the deciding decide whether it's a waste of his time. :)

153 Charles Johnson  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:17:37pm

re: #147 JamesWI

I mean, shit, don't waste your time if it's something only happening to me. It's not like it's a major problem, and it's not like I foresee a large number of times where I have to go back and edit comments with tweets.

Well, it's not hard to fix it manually -- just look inside that blockquote for "—", and make sure there are two linefeeds in front of it. In other words, hit Return twice right in front of that code.

154 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:17:40pm

re: #5 darthstar

The northern half of the state is very conservative. Uber-red.

Cracker country...

155 jamesfirecat  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:17:44pm

I do believe there is a plump woman int he back of Mitt Romney's campaign bus currently practicing for her solo...

156 Benghazzy Ben Ross  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:19:33pm

This "superstorm" thing is getting silly. You can call it a hurricane, AC...

157 freetoken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:19:36pm

re: #150 HappyWarrior

Something just doesn't make sense, though. Given that the Jeep joshing can be so quickly evaluated and exposed (by the very company at the center), why does the Romney campaign persist?

I know that by repeating a lie often and strenuously enough one can convince others that a false claim is true, but when there is so much push-back the return on time invested would seem to be negligible.

158 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:19:52pm

Who becomes next in line so to speak if Romney loses Tuesday. Santorum? Ryan? Or someone else all together.

159 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:19:56pm

re: #13 goddamnedfrank

Reality has a liberal bias.

Dunno but Clinton moved right, Bush 1 moved left. Obama moved right. Seems to me reality has a centrist bias, and a strong one at that.

160 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:20:19pm

Does anyone have reference to a sociological analysis on why a two party system (no spoilers about why it's not, please) seem, in my non analytical perspective, to regularly tend towards very close splits between the two main sides?

I think there has to be a self corrective feedback going on. It could be the wife pissed off at the husband's rants, who then votes the opposite; or it could be the simple fact that the parties automatically focus their efforts on the undecideds (aka uninformeds) to compensate, with relative equal success, or something else.

Or perhaps it is simply that the parties themselves automatically temper their pleas to level the appeal, whether by lies or sincerity.

In any case it does seem to me that, however unpleasant the process, the alternative of extreme landslide wins by any one side is a formula for one party rule. So perhaps what we have is the best we should wish for?

161 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:20:51pm

re: #157 freetoken

Something just doesn't make sense, though. Given that the Jeep joshing can be so quickly evaluated and exposed (by the very company at the center), why does the Romney campaign persist?

I know that by repeating a lie often and strenuously enough one can convince others that a false claim is true, but when there is so much push-back the return on time invested would seem to be negligible.

Honestly, I don't know. I think it's a sign of desperation more than anything though. Romney feels he can't win Ohio honestly so he feels that he has to push a big lie to win it.

162 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:21:31pm

re: #159 Daniel Ballard

Dunno but Clinton moved right, Bush 1 moved left. Obama moved right. Sems to me reality has a centrist bias, and a strong one at that.

There is no center. There are no 'left' and 'right'. These things are just convenient taxonomies with no inherent meaning. And being 'centrist' has no inherent merit.

163 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:21:57pm

re: #160 Achilles Tang

It doesn't. There have been long periods of history with one or the other party very dominant.

164 Targetpractice  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:22:20pm

re: #155 jamesfirecat

I do believe there is a plump woman int he back of Mitt Romney's campaign bus currently practicing for her solo...

"Tell the fat lady she's on in five!"

165 funky chicken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:22:28pm

re: #119 Targetpractice

Yeah, I'd say after today, his presidential ambitions as a Republican are over. Or he's betting on a total wingnut meltdown after next Tuesday.

I'm hoping for that too. A return to a sane GOP would be a good thing.

166 freetoken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:23:27pm

re: #161 HappyWarrior

Like a senescent coach, who keeps telling his team to "run it up the middle" even though the team hasn't scored any points all season doing such?

167 Charles Johnson  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:23:30pm

re: #144 JamesWI

Vista and Firefox.

Haven't started up Vista in a while - there are probably a quadrillion system updates waiting to ambush me.

168 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:23:40pm

re: #157 freetoken

Something just doesn't make sense, though. Given that the Jeep joshing can be so quickly evaluated and exposed (by the very company at the center), why does the Romney campaign persist?

I know that by repeating a lie often and strenuously enough one can convince others that a false claim is true, but when there is so much push-back the return on time invested would seem to be negligible.

The decides, cognitive dissonance and all that, have already decided, if not already voted. What is left is the ones that don't know squat, and the squats can decide the election.

169 blueraven  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:23:41pm

re: #157 freetoken

Something just doesn't make sense, though. Given that the Jeep joshing can be so quickly evaluated and exposed (by the very company at the center), why does the Romney campaign persist?

I know that by repeating a lie often and strenuously enough one can convince others that a false claim is true, but when there is so much push-back the return on time invested would seem to be negligible.

I think they just jumped on that internet story...knowing it was false but gambling that they might get away with it.

Desperation

170 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:24:03pm

re: #162 Obdicut

If you are going to take away a simple and generally accepted frame of reference, how about an acceptable substitute?

Oh and why is that aimed at me instead of GDF? Centrist still works as a place between liberal and conservative.

171 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:24:24pm

Joke that did not work.

172 calochortus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:24:41pm

re: #169 blueraven

I think they just jumped on that internet story...knowing it was false but gambling that they might get away with it.

Desperation

And an unwillingness to ever admit an error.

173 Gretchen G.Tiger  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:24:56pm

bbl

174 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:25:37pm

re: #165 funky chicken

I'm hoping for that too. A return to a sane GOP would be a good thing.

Not gonna happen if Mitt "the liberal" loses. The GOP will double down on the crazy, go with someone like Santorum who loses 50 states. Only then will there be a, uhm, "Come to Jesus Meeting" (sorry, bad pun) about becoming a viable party.

175 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:25:45pm

re: #166 freetoken

Like a senescent coach, who keeps telling his team to "run it up the middle" even though the team hasn't scored any points all season doing such?

I liken it more to continuing to throw a Hail Mary because it worked one time.

176 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:26:12pm

re: #162 Obdicut

There is no center. There are no 'left' and 'right'. These things are just convenient taxonomies with no inherent meaning. And being 'centrist' has no inherent merit.

Just thought of this-
Reality trumps partisanship. Better?

177 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:26:38pm

re: #163 Obdicut

It doesn't. There have been long periods of history with one or the other party very dominant.

I'm thinking more recently, and specifically since the advent of the electronic communication age with instant effect of a message. I think politicians thought differently in the past.

178 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:26:59pm

re: #174 Joanne

Not gonna happen if Mitt "the liberal" loses. The GOP will double down on the crazy, go with someone like Santorum who loses 50 states. Only then will there be a, uhm, "Come to Jesus Meeting" (sorry, bad pun) about becoming a viable party.

I agree with that. I can't see Santorum being the nominee though. But then again I never saw Santorum emerging as the runner up either and fighting Mitt into the spring.

179 GeneJockey  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:27:05pm

re: #172 calochortus

And an unwillingness to ever admit an error.

No Apologies!

180 erik_t  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:27:16pm

re: #177 Achilles Tang

I'm thinking more recently, and specifically since the advent of the electronic communication age with instant effect of a message. I think politicians thought differently in the past.

Our sample size is extremely small. No reason to assume any relationship a priori.

181 7-y (Expectation of Great Things in Due Course)  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:27:31pm

re: #79 Dark_Falcon

Enjoyed that. Further left on economics than social, but way over there in all regards. Regards!

182 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:27:40pm

re: #174 Joanne

Not gonna happen if Mitt "the liberal" loses. The GOP will double down on the crazy, go with someone like Santorum who loses 50 states. Only then will there be a, uhm, "Come to Jesus Meeting" (sorry, bad pun) about becoming a viable party.

Nope mean further to the right they will go. I don't have any faith in them at all to take a serious look at their beliefs/policies and why they are being rejected.

183 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:27:44pm

re: #169 blueraven

I think they just jumped on that internet story...knowing it was false but gambling that they might get away with it.

Desperation

No. Calculation. The media has let slide almost every Mitt and Ryan lie, they figured the trend would hold.

184 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:29:37pm

re: #180 erik_t

Our sample size is extremely small. No reason to assume any relationship a priori.

I don't have the sample data, but I think elections have been close back a number of elections in my lifetime. Correct me.

185 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:29:49pm

re: #170 Daniel Ballard

If you are going to take away a simple and generally accepted frame of reference, how about an acceptable substitute?

Oh and why is that aimed at me instead of GDF? Centrist still works as a place between liberal and conservative.

No, it really doesn't. The latest political season has really shown that. The idea of a mandate for insurance used to be a very conservative position. Now it's wildly liberal. Nothing changed, except perspective. There's tons of examples of this sort of swap in positions.

I really don't care if it's 'generally accepted'. Lots of things are generally accepted that are total fictions. And I get annoyed by centrism being held up as a good thing. Working with others, no matter what your own political views, compromise, those sorts of things are great. But that's not centrism.

Political issues are far, far, far too complex to put on a single two-axis system. I really, really don't get why people buy into it. The only reality it has is the political reality: The GOP identifies itself as on the 'right'. The Democrast sorta identify as the left. That's all 'right' and 'left' stands for in the US, it has no actual other meaning.

186 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:29:54pm

Cut Governor Christie Some Slack
By Kathryn Jean Lopez

There’s a remarkable amount of chatter on Twitter and elsewhere about Governor Christie’s decision to let the president come to his state, as a political matter. Feedback to me today insists that the governor should have done a Bloomberg and said no-thanks when the White House called and that by appearing with President Obama, Chris Christie is somehow sending a message to or about Mitt Romney.

(I am on Twitter at @KathrynLopez, by the way.)

Having the president come to New York City is a pain on the best days. Mike Bloomberg made the decision that was best for his city. And Anderson Cooper and everyone else will notice New York’s pain. By appearing with the president, Chris Christie ensured that we pay attention to the likes of Mantoloking, which has now been literally severed from the state, according to a local NBC News report tonight. Houses that survived the hurricane’s initial hit began to burn last night.

Chris Christie made a good communications decision for his state, for one thing, and I take him at his word about what it has to do with electoral politics: Nothing. (See Bob) It was a responsible leadership move: There are people with ties to those suffering in New Jersey who do have electricity and are watching. And the points he made today about giving thanks for our lives are essential ones to move forward with, important for leaders at a time of crisis to remind us of, as crisis hands them powerful platforms.

Read the whole thing.

187 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:29:59pm

re: #129 dragonath

I don't even like Christie but seeing opposing politicians getting along, well... makes me feel kind of fuzzy inside...

Ack! Hairball

re: #169 blueraven

I think they just jumped on that internet story...knowing it was false but gambling that they might get away with it.

Desperation

They've been lying the whole campaign without really getting called on it.
They didn't think GM would push back.

This is how it's supposed to be.
Putting politics aside during a crisis...

188 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:31:12pm

re: #176 Daniel Ballard

Just thought of this-
Reality trumps partisanship. Better?

If only that were true.

If Obama hadn't had the wild obstructionism we saw from the GOP, we'd have seen a lot more 'liberal' things coming out of the administration and the legislature. That is the main, overriding reason why Obama seems more 'centrist'; that he's gotten as much done as he has is freaking amazing.

189 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:32:42pm

re: #186 Dark_Falcon

Cut Governor Christie Some Slack
By Kathryn Jean Lopez

Read the whole thing.

I'd rather cut Chris Christie some slack than Kathryn Jean Lopez or NRO.

190 lawhawk  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:33:18pm

So, I was driving this evening and passed two gas stations that were open in Paterson. The two gas stations had lines of 50-60 cars at least, and a line of 50-75 people each lined up for filling gas cans for generators. Unreal.

And it's going to be like this until power is restored to more locations.

191 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:33:54pm

re: #182 efuseakay

Nope mean further to the right they will go. I don't have any faith in them at all to take a serious look at their beliefs/policies and why they are being rejected.

It's the evolution they so despise. If they don't evolve as a national party, they'll forever be only a southern regional party.

And if you look at what that NSA guy said, Santorum won more than Mitt, but the party GOP knew he couldn't win nationally, so they made sure Romney got the nod. Look at the many primary clusterfucks we saw during the primaries.

192 Skip Intro  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:34:21pm

re: #182 efuseakay

Nope mean further to the right they will go. I don't have any faith in them at all to take a serious look at their beliefs/policies and why they are being rejected.

The way the GOP has lunged to the far, far right in the last five years, four years from now Santorum, and even Bachmann will be far to liberal for them. They'll be in full Glenn Beck, Alex Jones territory.

I can't wait for the debates.

193 HappyBenghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:34:51pm

The thing is when the Dems got beat in landslides in '84 and '88, you could see via guys like Gary Hart and some others that there was new movement of Democrats. I am trying to see a new movement of Republicans that rejects supply side idiocy and or culture wars. But I'm not seeing it. I look at my own state and see that the Republican Party has nominated the personification of the old way George Allen for Senate and will almost certainly nominate Ken Cuccinneli who is quite socially conservative for governor next year. Seems to me that many Republicans want to act like this is still the 1980's. It's not and if that party is to be competitive long term with changing demographics and values, they need to adapt and I've seen no signs of that. If Jon Huntsman had did better than Ron Paul in the primaries then maybe I'd be inclined to believe that but this is the same old Republican Party.

194 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:35:08pm

re: #188 Obdicut

If only that were true.

If Obama hadn't had the wild obstructionism we saw from the GOP, we'd have seen a lot more 'liberal' things coming out of the administration and the legislature. That is the main, overriding reason why Obama seems more 'centrist'; that he's gotten as much done as he has is freaking amazing.

He screwed up by not doing more when he had the congress. Way too nice a guy believing in principle of cooperation and all that./

195 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:36:04pm

re: #105 goddamnedfrank

The only time I got a political message on my voicemail that I liked was a robo call from Scarlet Johansen. Pretty sure I got a boner off that one.

/wait, I said that out loud, didn't I?

*sproing*

196 sunnygal  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:36:31pm

re: #104 R.M, Ramallo

You must live in Western Washington.

197 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:36:38pm

re: #188 Obdicut

Well right the reality was an obstructionist Republican controlled congress. Obama responded as necessary. Look you make a good case for your point but ya skipped my request. And my question.

198 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:37:06pm

re: #194 Achilles Tang

He screwed up by not doing more when he had the congress. Way too nice a guy believing in principle of cooperation and all that./

He never really had congress. There were all those blue-dog dems, and Lieberman, and a very short space of time where they even technically had 60. And he begged, pleaded with the Senate Democrats to get a tax raise on the rich passed, and they didn't get it done.

He can't do shit without congress actually pushing things forwards.

199 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:37:07pm

re: #192 Skip Intro

The way the GOP has lunged to the far, far right in the last five years, four years from now Santorum, and even Bachmann will be far to liberal for them. They'll be in full Glenn Beck, Alex Jones territory.

I can't wait for the debates.

You really don't want to wish for those imagined debates. It will be too late even to pay attention.

200 freetoken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:37:16pm

re: #191 Joanne

It's the evolution they so despise. If they don't evolve as a national party, they'll forever be only a southern regional party.

Even that Lopez piece is chock full of confederate-think:

There’s a remarkable amount of chatter on Twitter and elsewhere about Governor Christie’s decision to let the president come to his state, as a political matter. ...

Their language is structured in such a way that reflects a far deeper belief system than merely Republican vs. Democrat.

201 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:38:41pm

re: #190 lawhawk

So, I was driving this evening and passed two gas stations that were open in Paterson. The two gas stations had lines of 50-60 cars at least, and a line of 50-75 people each lined up for filling gas cans for generators. Unreal.

And it's going to be like this until power is restored to more locations.

Gaspocalypse!

What's the price of gas when it's available?

202 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:39:26pm

re: #200 freetoken

Even that Lopez piece is chock full of confederate-think:

Their language is structured in such a way that reflects a far deeper belief system than merely Republican vs. Democrat.

No kidding? Any you who, I am sure, have spent time on wingnut sites.

203 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:39:54pm

re: #117 alpuz

Ya know, from a guy that represent Iowa and all their issues with flooding. I can't wrap my brain around the constant badmouthing of federal aid.

Unless of course he's just a huge dick.

Ray Stantz: Everything was fine with our system until the power grid was shut off by dickless here.
Walter Peck: They caused an explosion!
Mayor: Is this true?
Peter Venkman: Yes it's true. ... This man has no dick.
Peck: Jeez! [charges at Venkman]
Mayor: Break it up! Hey, break this up! Break it up!
Peck: All right, all right, all right!
Venkman: Well, that's what I heard!

204 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:40:03pm

re: #167 Charles Johnson

Haven't started up Vista in a while - there are probably a quadrillion system updates waiting to ambush me.

I have my VMs stored on SSDs so the ambushes don't last long.

205 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:41:07pm

re: #197 Daniel Ballard

Well right the reality was an obstructionist Republican controlled congress. Obama responded as necessary. Look you make a good case for your point but ya skipped my request. And my question.

Reality didn't trump partisanship in that case, no. The reality was that there was a massive amount of partisanship.

So no, not better.

Again: Politics is far too complex for a simple line of 'left' and 'right'. It's too complex for two axes, or three. You can reach the same practical application from wildly different ideologies. The 'left' and 'right' designation only make sense in terms of party identification in this country, and being 'centrist' doesn't carry any real meaning, nor is it a virtuous state. There are many times where one 'side' is so out of balance with the other that those in the 'center' are also very much in the wrong. Centrist implies balance. Balance does not exist.

206 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:41:48pm

Well, long story short, I've decided I'd rather err on the side of the side that wants more people to vote. Oh and that human rights thing. Call me keeeraaazy.

207 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:42:01pm

re: #198 Obdicut

He never really had congress. There were all those blue-dog dems, and Lieberman, and a very short space of time where they even technically had 60. And he begged, pleaded with the Senate Democrats to get a tax raise on the rich passed, and they didn't get it done.

He can't do shit without congress actually pushing things forwards.

I'm still pissed about that one.

208 Skip Intro  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:42:06pm

re: #199 Achilles Tang

You really don't want to wish for those imagined debates. It will be too late even to pay attention.

I envision them as being more along the lines of a group sermons by apocalyptic religious fanatics, all screaming that the End Times are here, and that God must be avenged.

I mean, where else does the GOP have to go?

209 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:43:44pm

re: #205 Obdicut

In the absence of another shorthand reference you will still see me use left and right as understood terms by almost everyone here. Politics is complicated but simple straightforward posts are blog reality.

210 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:44:13pm

re: #198 Obdicut

He never really had congress. There were all those blue-dog dems, and Lieberman, and a very short space of time where they even technically had 60. And he begged, pleaded with the Senate Democrats to get a tax raise on the rich passed, and they didn't get it done.

He can't do shit without congress actually pushing things forwards.

Well, I admit I'm somewhat new to political realities, but I do think that the biggie was ACA. The focus after should have been on not losing congress. Still, I admit I don't know what I advocate.

211 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:44:30pm

re: #208 Skip Intro

I envision them as being more along the lines of a group sermons by apocalyptic religious fanatics, all screaming that the End Times are here, and that God must be avenged.

I mean, where else does the GOP have to go?

Exactly because that whole fiscal conservatism they so espouse? That dog don't hunt. Dems, and Obama in particular, are more fiscally responsible than any GOPer in the last several decades.

212 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:44:39pm

re: #208 Skip Intro

I envision them as being more along the lines of a group sermons by apocalyptic religious fanatics, all screaming that the End Times are here, and that God must be avenged.

I mean, where else does the GOP have to go?

Away. Far far away.

213 Skip Intro  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:44:40pm

re: #198 Obdicut

He never really had congress.

Remember, too , that Al Franken wasn't even seated as a Senator until June, 2009, because of GOP lawsuits over his election.

214 lawhawk  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:45:36pm

re: #201 Sheila Broflovski

I think it was around $3.58, which was the price that it was before the storm. No gouging as far as I could see from the two places I passed.

215 Benghazzy Ben Ross  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:45:39pm

Bill O'Reilly and Dennis Miller are discussing race now. This can't end well...

216 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:45:40pm

re: #209 Daniel Ballard

In the absence of another shorthand reference you will still see me use left and right as understood terms by almost everyone here. Politics is complicated but simple straightforward posts are blog reality.

I will understand, as nearly everyone does, that 'left' and 'right' means "Democratic" and "Republican & worse". So saying Obama has moved to the right isn't true. He hasn't become any more of a Republican in any way. He's practically had to work with an extremist, fanatical GOP legislature, which has limited dramatically what he's been able to do.

217 funky chicken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:46:32pm

re: #193 HappyWarrior

After the landslides of 1980, 1984, and 1988 the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton. I think something similar can happen for the GOP. If it doesn't, it will no longer be a viable party and something else will take its place.

218 lawhawk  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:47:35pm

re: #214 lawhawk

Next time I head that way (tomorrow), I'll have to take pix. It really is something to see - and never wish for anyone else to experience. We were lucky to fill up before the storm, but we'll have to fill up sooner or later, and hopefully the power will come back on.

219 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:47:49pm

re: #210 Achilles Tang

Well, I admit I'm somewhat new to political realities, but I do think that the biggie was ACA. The focus after should have been on not losing congress. Still, I admit I don't know what I advocate.

One correction: it was the lies and bullshit surrounding the ACA; no one read it, Pelosi said you had to pass it to read it, death panels, et al. All lies. All fabrications. All total bullshit.

Where Dems screwed the pooch was messaging.

220 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:48:49pm

re: #217 funky chicken

After the landslides of 1980, 1984, and 1988 the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton. I think something similar can happen for the GOP. If it doesn't, it will no longer be a viable party and something else will take its place.

They have to junk their political philosophy. It's not about who they nominate, its's about their extremist, anti-immigrant, hyper-religious position that they're sporting. The demographics of their failure is based in that-- even young evangelicals aren't anti-gay and anti-woman in the way the GOP is.

221 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:49:21pm

re: #217 funky chicken

After the landslides of 1980, 1984, and 1988 the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton. I think something similar can happen for the GOP. If it doesn't, it will no longer be a viable party and something else will take its place.

The Dems weren't driven by crazy religious ideology.

222 Sophist is the VillageGreen Preservation Society  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:49:29pm

re: #79 Dark_Falcon

Also from Pew: Take the Political Party Quiz.

It turns out I'm a total pinko.

[is shocked]

223 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:50:19pm

Whew. That was almost draining.

224 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:50:28pm

re: #216 Obdicut

I will understand, as nearly everyone does, that 'left' and 'right' means "Democratic" and "Republican & worse". So saying Obama has moved to the right isn't true. He hasn't become any more of a Republican in any way. He's practically had to work with an extremist, fanatical GOP legislature, which has limited dramatically what he's been able to do.

Could you reconcile the first sentence your post and the undeniable fact that there are many voters now registered with no party affiliation, that still lean "left or "right" as commonly used in our political vernacular? As to the rest my perspective goes far beyond (in time) the current administration that did move right in policy in the face of reality, IMHO.

225 Skip Intro  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:50:51pm

re: #219 Joanne

Where Dems screwed the pooch was messaging.

They're still doing it. They haven't explained it well at all.

If Romney wins and does follow though on his promise to repeal the ACA, a lot of people who haven't given it a lot of thought are going to be very unhappy. Of course, most of them will blame the Dems.

226 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:51:26pm

It's times like these I'm glad Obama hasn't stood side by side by a guy who thinks Halloween is some kind of satanic plot.

227 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:52:15pm

Dennis Miller," Blah, blah, pseudo-intellectual bull crap, blah, blah."
Bill O'Reilly,"Did you know, that the blacks actually use forks when they eat?"

My version of events.

228 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:52:31pm
229 Skip Intro  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:52:52pm

re: #220 Obdicut

even young evangelicals aren't anti-gay and anti-woman in the way the GOP is.

Neither were the evangelicals in the 1970s. It took Jerry Falwell to come along to poison that well.

230 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:54:22pm

re: #224 Daniel Ballard

Could you reconcile the first sentence your post and the undeniable fact that there are many voters now registered with no party affiliation, that still lean "left or "right" as commonly used in our political vernacular?

Yeah. What they mean is that they lean towards voting for Democrats or Republicans.

As to the rest my perspective goes far beyond (in time) the current administration that did move right in policy in the face of reality, IMHO.

Yeah, dude, I get that's your opinion. I've made it pretty clear why I think that's wrong. The administration had to deal with a wildly radical GOP congress obstructing them. The legislation that came about had to account for that. In terms of what they've tried to do, you're wrong, they haven't moved towards the Republican positions at all.

The only, only area where your argument holds the slightest bit of water is on Obama's positions on state secrets, etc. But that's not a move towards the 'right'. It's a move towards greater state and executive authority, which is not particular to any part of the political spectrum.

231 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:54:39pm

re: #201 Sheila Broflovski

Gaspocalypse!

What's the price of gas when it's available?

The price of gas is, according to Romney, set by the President.

The truth is that we have refinery capacity in this country which is, according to good business principles, just able to meet demand, and when capacity is reduced, through accident or maintenance or whatever, there is enough capacity left to supply demand but at higher prices to compensate for the increase overhead of whatever caused the supply decrease; thereby compensating the suppliers financially and reducing the pressure to spend capital on increasing supply. Of course a really major disaster at any one refinery will leave us really in the doo doo.

232 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:54:51pm

re: #229 Skip Intro

Neither were the evangelicals in the 1970s. It took Jerry Falwell to come along to poison that well.

True. Should remember that Jimmy Carter was an evangelical.

233 freetoken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:54:55pm

re: #222 Sophist, Gingham Style

It's not a very enlightening test, though. I took it and it planted me as a "moderate Democrat" but that is quite artificial, as I can tell you right now that on some issues I'm much closer to Marx than the average Democrat, and on other issues much closer to, say Puritans, than the average Democrat.

234 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:56:19pm

re: #219 Joanne

One correction: it was the lies and bullshit surrounding the ACA; no one read it, Pelosi said you had to pass it to read it, death panels, et al. All lies. All fabrications. All total bullshit.

Where Dems screwed the pooch was messaging.

You should use // when making a point to those who don't know you.

235 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:57:14pm
236 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:57:16pm

re: #222 Sophist, Gingham Style

It turns out I'm a total pinko.

[is shocked]

Apparently I'm far left on social issues yet right in the center on economic issues.

237 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:58:41pm

re: #230 Obdicut

Yeah. What they mean is that they lean towards voting for Democrats or Republicans.

Yeah, dude, I get that's your opinion. I've made it pretty clear why I think that's wrong. The administration had to deal with a wildly radical GOP congress obstructing them. The legislation that came about had to account for that. In terms of what they've tried to do, you're wrong, they haven't moved towards the Republican positions at all.

The only, only area where your argument holds the slightest bit of water is on Obama's positions on state secrets, etc. But that's not a move towards the 'right'. It's a move towards greater state and executive authority, which is not particular to any part of the political spectrum.

Uh huh. Well I'm stuck with the common frame of reference conversationally just like everyone else. I still don't see anything that fails to support that most Presidents get drawn for whatever reason to the middle.

And I still see no answer as to why this whole line of questioning left and right is aimed at me in particular instead of anyone else or GDF who made the point to begin with. Darn near everyone here uses these terms.

238 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 5:59:46pm
239 danarchy  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:00:39pm

re: #79 Dark_Falcon

Also from Pew: Take the Political Party Quiz.

in aggregate I am just right of center, but waaaay over to the left on social issues and waaay over to the right on economic issues.

240 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:01:55pm

re: #235 Joanne

[Embedded content]

Gov. Christie makes fun of Rush Limbaugh because Limbaugh is the kind of asshole Christie doesn't like: Someone who's only involved with political matters to make money, not to get anything done. In fact, Rush is of that rare breed of dirtbag who'd rather things not get done solely because he gets more attention that way.

241 The Ghost of a Benghazi Flea  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:02:00pm

re: #232 Obdicut

True. Should remember that Jimmy Carter was an evangelical.

Fred Clark, who writes the slacktivist blog, identifies as an evangelical, and writes occasionally on how the term has been taken over by a certain narrow band of social conservatives. Before they made a shot at defining themselves as the only "real Christians," American charismatic, apocalyptic sects kind of colonized and took over evangelical, such that few people remember that the term was ever associated with anything but the Religious Right.

242 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:02:54pm

re: #239 danarchy

in aggregate I am just right of center, but waaaay over to the left on social issues and waaay over to the right on economic issues.

Cool. Glad people are getting some mileage off of that quiz.

243 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:02:56pm

re: #237 Daniel Ballard

Uh huh. Well I'm stuck with the common frame of reference conversationally just like everyone else.

Yes. That 'left' means 'Democrats' and 'right' means Republicans.

I still don't see anything that fails to support that most Presidents get drawn for whatever reason to the middle.

If you're just making the obvious statement that the other party exists and has some input, thus requiring compromise, then sure. But that's a truism, so I figured you weren't saying something so unnecessary.

And I still see no answer as to why this whole line of questioning left and right is aimed at me in particular instead of anyone else or GDF who made the point to begin with. Darn near everyone here uses these terms.

Because you're talking about centrism. I don't know how I can be clearer about this. "Reality has a liberal bias" is a true statement these days: reality more accords to the Democrats version of things than the Republicans. That centrism even exists, or that Obama became more centrist, is not true.

I don't mind if people talk about 'left' and 'right' instead of "Democrats" and "Republicans". It's still half-assed, but it's fine. I do find it ridiculous when we then create the fiction of the 'center'.

244 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:03:41pm

Here's a fun poll... among my Facebook friends... 4 like Romney, 14 like Obama. But that leaves out the 100 others who are smart enough to not talk politics with friends and family. ;)

245 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:04:09pm

re: #242 Dark_Falcon

Cool. Glad people are getting some mileage off of that quiz.

I hate the quiz and everything it represents about US politics.

By the way, I could construct a test like that that would show you were a Democrat.

246 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:06:09pm

re: #235 Joanne

[Embedded content]

Whoa boy, someone called Christie fat

247 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:06:44pm

re: #222 Sophist, Gingham Style

It turns out I'm a total pinko.

[is shocked]

So am I, according to that test; I consider myself more as a moderate.

That test didn't have enough questions to get really granular.

248 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:08:31pm

Conan, what is best in Life?

249 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:09:17pm
250 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:09:19pm

re: #228 Joanne

[Embedded content]

That's funny...

251 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:09:44pm

Very good Halloween turnout. Just enough Butterfingers left. That might not be politically important some places.

252 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:10:46pm

re: #247 MittDoesNotCompute

It's a ridiculous quiz on many levels.

For example, the question:

• The government needs to do more to make health care affordable and accessible.

A 'rock-ribbed' conservative could honestly answer "Completely agree" to this, because in their (sadly deluded) mind, the government could do more by deregulating the insurance industry, by imposing at the federal level that insurance companies could sell to other states, etc. However, 'conservatives' taking this test know that the 'completely agree' position would label them as a Democrat, so, even if they think it's true that the government could take action that would result in more affordable health care, they'll answer 'Completely disagree'.

Likewise, "I never doubt the existence of God" somehow means my Catholic parents and all the other observant, religious Democrats aren't sincere in their religion or something. A real question would be "We should teach creationism in schools", not about simply having faith.

253 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:11:07pm

re: #246 dragonath

Whoa boy, someone called Christie fat

Original, right? But coming from Limbaugh? ROTFLMFAO.

254 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:11:07pm

re: #251 Decatur Deb

Very good Halloween turnout. Just enough Butterfingers left. That might not be politically important some places.

Leave the gun, take the Butterfinger...

///

255 The Ghost of a Benghazi Flea  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:11:20pm

re: #251 Decatur Deb

Very good Halloween turnout. Just enough Butterfingers left. That might not be politically important some places.

Wait until we extend the franchise down to 6-year-olds.

256 Stanghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:12:02pm

re: #251 Decatur Deb

Very good Halloween turnout. Just enough Butterfingers left. That might not be politically important some places.

got a new sign to welcome?

257 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:12:40pm

re: #243 Obdicut

Yes. That 'left' means 'Democrats' and 'right' means Republicans.

If you're just making the obvious statement that the other party exists and has some input, thus requiring compromise, then sure. But that's a truism, so I figured you weren't saying something so unnecessary.

Because you're talking about centrism. I don't know how I can be clearer about this. "Reality has a liberal bias" is a true statement these days: reality more accords to the Democrats version of things than the Republicans. That centrism even exists, or that Obama became more centrist, is not true.

I don't mind if people talk about 'left' and 'right' instead of "Democrats" and "Republicans". It's still half-assed, but it's fine. I do find it ridiculous when we then create the fiction of the 'center'.

So each side is real only the middle is fictional? Um, no. And your idea that one must be leaning Republican or Democratic is incorrect as demonstrated in principle & fact by the rest of the parties and those with no affiliation.
Edit
If reality had this liberal bias we would have Dem controlled houses and single payer health care.

258 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:12:54pm
259 dragonfire1981  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:13:09pm

Hold up. Why are tweets showing a Nov. 1 posting date already?

260 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:13:29pm
261 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:13:39pm

re: #256 Page 3 in the Binder of Women

got a new sign to welcome?

Nope. Not easy to hunt down. Wouldn't have tempted fate with one tonight anyway. Got to find the NAACP guy.

262 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:13:50pm

re: #253 Joanne

Original, right? But coming from Limbaugh? ROTFLMFAO.

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black...or something.

Frankly, I think Rush has more fat between his ears than he does around his waist.

263 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:14:05pm

This question is also really stupid:

One parent can bring up a child as well as two parents together.

Can? Sure. One good parent can do a better job than two shitty parents. On the whole, taking averages, children with two parents will benefit from having two parents in all kinds of ways. So will a child with involved grandparents. So what way should I answer? And why would acknowledging the reality that two ideal parents are better than one ideal parent make me 'republican'? I don't see why it matters in the least.

264 Daniel Ballard  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:15:27pm

BBL time to make tacos.

265 freetoken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:15:36pm

On a somewhat different topic, Nature has published a paper from the 1000 Genomes project that is full of nifty little insights into late human evolution:

An integrated map of genetic variation from 1,092 human genomes

By characterizing the geographic and functional spectrum of human genetic variation, the 1000 Genomes Project aims to build a resource to help to understand the genetic contribution to disease. Here we describe the genomes of 1,092 individuals from 14 populations, constructed using a combination of low-coverage whole-genome and exome sequencing. By developing methods to integrate information across several algorithms and diverse data sources, we provide a validated haplotype map of 38 million single nucleotide polymorphisms, 1.4 million short insertions and deletions, and more than 14,000 larger deletions. We show that individuals from different populations carry different profiles of rare and common variants, and that low-frequency variants show substantial geographic differentiation, which is further increased by the action of purifying selection. We show that evolutionary conservation and coding consequence are key determinants of the strength of purifying selection, that rare-variant load varies substantially across biological pathways, and that each individual contains hundreds of rare non-coding variants at conserved sites, such as motif-disrupting changes in transcription-factor-binding sites. This resource, which captures up to 98% of accessible single nucleotide polymorphisms at a frequency of 1% in related populations, enables analysis of common and low-frequency variants in individuals from diverse, including admixed, populations.

[...]

Given enough DNA samples, one ought to be able to sort out one's ancestry much farther back than written records.

266 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:17:35pm

Later, lizards.

267 wrenchwench  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:17:54pm

Tricked you! No kittehs!

268 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:18:07pm

re: #257 Daniel Ballard

So each side is real only the middle is fictional?

No, the 'sides' are only real in that there are two political parties, called "Republican" and "Democrat". The 'sides' of left and right don't actually exist.

And your idea that one must be leaning Republican or Democratic is incorrect as demonstrated in principle & fact by the rest of the parties and those with no affiliation.

That's not a demonstration. People with no affiliation still most commonly vote for either Republican or Democrat. And the rest of the parties- I dunno what point you're trying to make here. They exist, they're not very important in US politics, and they're mostly politically incoherent.

269 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:18:47pm
270 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:19:28pm

re: #267 wrenchwench

Tricked you! No kittehs!

Image: 557846_10151120149014624_1685736784_n.jpeg

271 Benghazzy Ben Ross  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:20:00pm

re: #249 Joanne

[Embedded content]

The response to this disaster on all levels has been the Bizarro Katrina.

272 Killgore Trout  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:20:18pm

If reality had a left bias the moonbats wouldn't hate the fact checkers so much.

273 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:20:36pm

re: #270 Gus

Image: 557846_10151120149014624_1685736784_n.jpeg

Aww!

274 jamesfirecat  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:20:46pm

re: #272 Killgore Trout

If reality had a left bias the moonbats wouldn't hate the fact checkers so much.

Only if fact checkers adhere to reality.

275 The Ghost of a Benghazi Flea  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:20:53pm

re: #271 Mocking Jay

The response to this disaster on all levels has been the Bizarro Katrina.

If it's Bizarro Katrina, what will Kanye West say?

(pst. The answer is, "Probably something dumb.")

276 Killgore Trout  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:21:11pm

re: #274 jamesfirecat

On if fact checkers adhere to reality.

That's the spirit!
/

277 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:21:23pm

re: #224 Daniel Ballard

As to the rest my perspective goes far beyond (in time) the current administration that did move right in policy in the face of reality, IMHO.

At best you're talking about an incredibly limited slice of foreign policy though, drones and secrets. Obama moved significantly left on gay rights, passed the stimulus, passed HCR, honored the Iraq withdrawal timetable without seeking an extension, negotiated a timetable for leaving Afghanistan, passed Ledbetter, prosecuted the AZ immigration law, fought voter suppression efforts, increased EPA enforcement of Clear Air and Water Acts, ended torture as a tool of the state, tried to end use of Guantanamo as a prison and try War on Terror prisoners domestically until Congress stopped him.

278 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:21:28pm

re: #272 Killgore Trout

If reality had a left bias the moonbats wouldn't hate the fact checkers so much.

Only if you make the stupid, fatuous, lazy assumption that fact-checkers determine what reality is.

279 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:21:42pm

re: #272 Killgore Trout

If reality had a left bias the moonbats wouldn't hate the fact checkers so much.

Uh oh. Looks like the grouch woke up.

280 909Ghazis  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:22:12pm

I was waiting for the spit and dirt to be thrown at Governor Christie for doing his job. If there is a more perfect example of a reprehensible piece of shit than Rush, I haven't seen it. Close. But day to day pure turd pie? Rush has it locked up.

281 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:23:39pm

re: #272 Killgore Trout

If reality had a left bias the moonbats wouldn't hate the fact checkers so much.

Intensely ideological people never like fact checkers, Killgore, because sooner or later any even semi-honest fact checker will have to explain a fact that conflicts with the ideology they hold. And people who see everything exclusively through an ideological lens tend to react with anger a disbelief when contradicted by the facts.

282 Benghazzy Ben Ross  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:23:47pm

A Republican at a Romney rally today told people to threaten to take candy from babies, almost literally...

283 The Ghost of a Benghazi Flea  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:24:05pm

re: #272 Killgore Trout

If reality had a left bias the moonbats wouldn't hate the fact checkers so much.

Specific contentions to the construction of an argument = hate.

Fact checkers = Magic Truth Shamans who don't have to justify claims with logic.

....Trout Wing!

284 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:24:06pm
286 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:24:42pm

re: #252 Obdicut

It's a ridiculous quiz on many levels.

For example, the question:

A 'rock-ribbed' conservative could honestly answer "Completely agree" to this, because in their (sadly deluded) mind, the government could do more by deregulating the insurance industry, by imposing at the federal level that insurance companies could sell to other states, etc. However, 'conservatives' taking this test know that the 'completely agree' position would label them as a Democrat, so, even if they think it's true that the government could take action that would result in more affordable health care, they'll answer 'Completely disagree'.

Likewise, "I never doubt the existence of God" somehow means my Catholic parents and all the other observant, religious Democrats aren't sincere in their religion or something. A real question would be "We should teach creationism in schools", not about simply having faith.

There are a number of ways of designing surveys to extract attitudes. Back when I went for my Psych degree, we were taught to design surveys where questions were asked repeatedly, generally differently each time. The use of intentional slanting along with more neutral forms allows for removal of false bias such as in your example.

Almost all surveys are designed with the type of false bias you're talking about in mind, and unless the survey designers intentionally want a false result, and I have seen several like that recently, what may look like poorly formed, or bias laden, questions may not be so poorly chosen.

287 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:25:26pm

re: #281 Dark_Falcon

Intensely ideological people never like fact checkers, Killgore, because sooner or later any even semi-honest fact checker will have to explain a fact that conflicts with the ideology they hold. And people who see everything exclusively through an ideological lens tend to react with anger a disbelief when contradicted by the facts.

For example, people who hold the stupid view that media figures crowning themselves fact-checkers have some sort of special status when it comes to discerning what the facts are, often react in anger and disbelief when people point out that that's bullshit.

288 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:26:01pm

Don't feed the troll.......

289 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:26:55pm

re: #275 The Ghost of a Flea

If it's Bizarro Katrina, what will Kanye West say?

(pst. The answer is, "Probably something dumb.")

He'll say nothing for a couple weeks and then announce his engagement to Kim Kardashian.

290 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:27:48pm

re: #263 Obdicut

This question is also really stupid:

Can? Sure. One good parent can do a better job than two shitty parents. On the whole, taking averages, children with two parents will benefit from having two parents in all kinds of ways. So will a child with involved grandparents. So what way should I answer? And why would acknowledging the reality that two ideal parents are better than one ideal parent make me 'republican'? I don't see why it matters in the least.

You're expecting too much from the questions. They are designed to bring out an emotional response, not logical consideration.

291 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:28:22pm

Image: 94f4e633gw1dvju1druf2j.jpg

292 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:29:33pm

re: #281 Dark_Falcon

What are you doing out here on the witching hour? Robertson says you're really gonna be hexed for hanging out with a bunch of liberals.

293 kirghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:29:44pm

The problem for the Republicans is that at heart they're a party of elitists; fiscal, religious, racial, and nationalist elitists, who still can't beat the fact that one person gets one vote regardless. They used to be predominately a party of fiscal elitists, but as they were declining saw the opportunity to get a new hold on life with what became known as the southern strategy: coopting the dixiecrats who were rabid racists and/or anti-communists.

Just as in the mid-20th century, their philosophical foes are growing at rates greater than their own.

Unless and until they can coopt others into their elitism, they're doomed. They can do it by adding another elitist group just as they added the dixiecrats, or they can do it by loosening their 'cut-off lines' (and most likely lose one of the categories by which they stand). Completely eliminating the elitism makes them an entirely different party regardless of what name they take.

294 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:30:15pm

re: #265 freetoken

Given enough DNA samples, one ought to be able to sort out one's ancestry much farther back than written records.

I honestly didn't try to read all that, but there is an interesting thought implied in your comment. That is that to decipher your ancestry, without access to the DNA of everyone on the planet, one needs to be able to identify the geographic location of distinct DNA markers, or haplogroups, to which you can be connected. The only way to do that is to test peoples all over the planet and determine those who have lived for generations past in particular locations, and what their signatures are.

The problem is that in another generation or less, given the mobility of humans these days, there will be no clearly identifiable regional markers left in most geographic regions that haven't been diluted or masked by emigration or immigration.

If DNA analysis had been refined to the degree that it has in just another decade or or two, we would have only the vaguest idea of early human migrations.

295 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:30:54pm

re: #292 dragonath

What are you doing out here on the witching hour? Robertson says you're really gonna be hexed for hanging out with a bunch of liberals.

Good thing I don't listen to him, then.

296 dragonath  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:31:16pm

Romney does.

297 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:31:44pm

re: #286 b_sharp

That doesn't get to the heart of my complaint, though. The test is fine at telling if people are Democrats or Republicans. It's basically a self-selective mechanism using code-words and phrases that we all already understand.

The 'going deeper into debt' question is a good example. It's true that Democrats will say it's okay to go deeper into debt in order to help out the 'needy'. But what if the 'even if it means going deeper into debt' was asked about subjects that the Republicans generally support, like building a fence on the border with Mexico, or deporting illegal immigrants?

298 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:32:11pm
299 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:32:23pm

re: #290 b_sharp

You're expecting too much from the questions. They are designed to bring out an emotional response, not logical consideration.

Basically, this is not a quiz of party identification, but reaction to code words, phrases, etc. That's my complaint.

300 kirghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:32:40pm

re: #297 Obdicut

That doesn't get to the heart of my complaint, though. The test is fine at telling if people are Democrats or Republicans. It's basically a self-selective mechanism using code-words and phrases that we all already understand.

The 'going deeper into debt' question is a good example. It's true that Democrats will say it's okay to go deeper into debt in order to help out the 'needy'. But what if the 'even if it means going deeper into debt' was asked about subjects that the Republicans generally support, like building a fence on the border with Mexico, or deporting illegal immigrants?

If I may suggest a better example: what if it was to add another hundred ships to the navy?

301 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:33:23pm

re: #291 Gus

Image: 94f4e633gw1dvju1druf2j.jpg

My brain just caught fire and melted from the cuteness overload...

302 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:33:47pm

re: #268 Obdicut

No, the 'sides' are only real in that there are two political parties, called "Republican" and "Democrat". The 'sides' of left and right don't actually exist.

That's not a demonstration. People with no affiliation still most commonly vote for either Republican or Democrat. And the rest of the parties- I dunno what point you're trying to make here. They exist, they're not very important in US politics, and they're mostly politically incoherent.

But the two parties are populated by people who hold specific values that can be expressed as dichotomies. Those dichotomies can be grouped and assigned arbitrary numeric or categorical values. That's how you build a model of the real world functional enough to produce useful information.

303 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:34:22pm

re: #301 MittDoesNotCompute

My brain just caught fire and melted from the cuteness overload...

Gets worse!

Image: 94f4e633gw1dwypesr9acj.jpg

More at Snoopy the Cat, New Internet Sensation

304 uncah91  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:34:30pm

re: #297 Obdicut

That doesn't get to the heart of my complaint, though. The test is fine at telling if people are Democrats or Republicans. It's basically a self-selective mechanism using code-words and phrases that we all already understand.

The 'going deeper into debt' question is a good example. It's true that Democrats will say it's okay to go deeper into debt in order to help out the 'needy'. But what if the 'even if it means going deeper into debt' was asked about subjects that the Republicans generally support, like building a fence on the border with Mexico, or deporting illegal immigrants?

I think part of what we see as left and right as just the fact we are a fist past the post system. In a parliamentary system, that coalition building after citizens vote. In our system, the coalition building has to happen beforehand, forcing everyone into a dichotomous model.

305 Achilles Tang  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:34:42pm

re: #277 goddamnedfrank

Yes, but I have no sympathy still for trying terrorists as common criminals. They are not.

306 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:35:50pm

Image: tumblr_mc0fg6rEWv1ruwvo8o1_500.jpg

307 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:36:01pm

re: #302 b_sharp

But the two parties are populated by people who hold specific values that can be expressed as dichotomies.

I don't really understand what you mean by this, and what I do understand I disagree with.

Those dichotomies can be grouped and assigned arbitrary numeric or categorical values. That's how you build a model of the real world functional enough to produce useful information.

I do not see any way that this quiz performs better than asking people if they identify as Republican or Democrat, and asking them how 'severe' or whatever they are about it.

I really am not getting your objection to what I'm saying. I don't consider it useful information that Republicans will respond to the code words 'adding to the debt' by being negative about the question it's attached to.

308 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:36:10pm

re: #303 Gus

Second link's borked.

309 uncah91  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:36:16pm

re: #302 b_sharp

But the two parties are populated by people who hold specific values that can be expressed as dichotomies. Those dichotomies can be grouped and assigned arbitrary numeric or categorical values. That's how you build a model of the real world functional enough to produce useful information.

Only in our electoral system. Other systems generate different models.

310 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:36:19pm

re: #303 Gus

Gets worse!

Image: 94f4e633gw1dwypesr9acj.jpg

More at Snoopy the Cat, New Internet Sensation

2nd link did not work.

311 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:37:16pm

re: #303 Gus

Gets worse!

Image: 94f4e633gw1dwypesr9acj.jpg

More at Snoopy the Cat, New Internet Sensation

Fixed. Thanks.

312 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:37:34pm

I just hope Drudge's massive sex scandal isn't as big a GAME CHANGER as his "Obama is a black man who occasionally speaks to other black people about issues facing their community" BOMBSHELL.

Obama can't handle another GAME CHANGER like that.

313 OhNoBenghazi!  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:39:39pm

re: #196 sunnygal

You must live in Western Washington.

Northern Ohio.

314 kirghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:40:25pm

re: #305 Achilles Tang

Yes, but I have no sympathy still for trying terrorists as common criminals. They are not.

No, no more than serial killers or saboteurs or such.

But our system is and has been set up to deal with all of those, to include terrorists, for quite some time. Our system has a mechanism for keeping classified evidence secret that has worked for a long time.

So I fail to understand why we need a special trial system for them.

315 Ben G. Hazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:42:28pm

re: #303 Gus

Gets worse!

Image: 94f4e633gw1dwypesr9acj.jpg

More at Snoopy the Cat, New Internet Sensation

re: #306 Gus

Image: tumblr_mc0fg6rEWv1ruwvo8o1_500.jpg

OK, now I'm just a helpless, quivering pile of goo; thanks, Gus (and Snoopy)!

///

316 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:42:38pm

And of course, Drudge's "scandal" story will be released by.....The Daily Caller.

I guess they couldn't get Hannity this time? Maybe even he recognized that their last "bombshell" made him look like even more of a joke than usual.

317 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:43:37pm

re: #314 kirkspencer

No, no more than serial killers or saboteurs or such.

But our system is and has been set up to deal with all of those, to include terrorists, for quite some time. Our system has a mechanism for keeping classified evidence secret that has worked for a long time.

So I fail to understand why we need a special trial system for them.

I think if we can handle trials for organized crime, with all the problems that entails, we can handle trials for terrorists.

318 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:43:48pm

re: #315 MittDoesNotCompute

re: #306 Gus

OK, now I'm just a helpless, quivering pile of goo; thanks, Gus (and Snoopy)!

///

Snoopy the cat. From China. Official page here: [Link: snoopy409.tumblr.com...]

319 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:43:58pm

re: #299 Obdicut

Basically, this is not a quiz of party identification, but reaction to code words, phrases, etc. That's my complaint.

That's what they're designed to be. You're asking for too much logic. The first reaction people have to almost every situation is emotional, not logical. To get past fake answers, the initial response is required. That's why implicit testing is used.

I don't like these surveys because they don't look to use the statistical methods we used back in the old days which required a far higher number of questions.

Design of an accurate survey is tough, but the science may have made big headway since the early '80s, so I'm willing to give them the benefit of my doubt, unless the questions are obviously designed to push answers.

320 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:44:18pm

Here's the site Gus has been using.

321 freetoken  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:45:43pm

re: #294 Achilles Tang

... there is an interesting thought implied in your comment. That is that to decipher your ancestry, without access to the DNA of everyone on the planet, one needs to be able to identify the geographic location of distinct DNA markers, or haplogroups, to which you can be connected. The only way to do that is to test peoples all over the planet and determine those who have lived for generations past in particular locations, and what their signatures are.

But... not everyone needs to be tested. Indeed, given the nature of how different sites mutate, with some being more variable than others, and with regions of DNA moving together, again with a large set of such regions, and given a knowledge of how such regions are conserved on average, one should be able to ballpark ancestry with much fewer people tested than the whole population.

Geographically speaking, the challenge is how mobile humans are, even in the past, and so that becomes a problem in itself. For example, in my ancestry is quite a bit of Nordic input, but it is known that there were at least two major movements of peoples into Norway, and while Y-chromosome testing can tell me which group I fall into along a purely paternal line, the reality is the groups interbred quite a bit. In my ancestry the complexity comes up on the maternal side, and though it is strongly British isles broadly speaking, because we don't know who our maternal grandfather was there is a hole there.

On a more practical basis, DNA testing might get cheap enough to make relationship testing (more than immediate paternal testing, which can be done relatively cheaply) could fill in anybody's ancestry, if they wish.

The moral question, as expressed in medicine, is dealing with Genetics As Destiny meme, which seems to take root very deeply with little effort.

322 JamesWI  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:46:11pm

Romney's Super-PAC still running ad that says unemployment is over 8%

323 BishopX  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:46:23pm

re: #314 kirkspencer

I would also like to point out that the war imagery used against terrorists is a potent recruiting tool since it validates their world-view. Treating them like the scum they are rather than some dangerous hidden state-level actor does a lot to rob their propaganda of legitimacy.

324 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:46:26pm

re: #316 JamesWI

And of course, Drudge's "scandal" story will be released by.....The Daily Caller.

I guess they couldn't get Hannity this time? Maybe even he recognized that their last "bombshell" made him look like even more of a joke than usual.

Fox is getting extra viewers because of Hurricane Sandy coverage. They don't want to annoy those viewers with a heavily promoted "OUTRAGEOUS OUTRAGE!!1" that turns out to be a big nothing. Money over ideology, as always on TV.

325 uncah91  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:46:56pm

re: #319 b_sharp

That's what they're designed to be. You're asking for too much logic. The first reaction people have to almost every situation is emotional, not logical. To get past fake answers, the initial response is required. That's why implicit testing is used.

I don't like these surveys because they don't look to use the statistical methods we used back in the old days which required a far higher number of questions.

Design of an accurate survey is tough, but the science may have made big headway since the early '80s, so I'm willing to give them the benefit of my doubt, unless the questions are obviously designed to push answers.

I think what Obdi is saying is that this isn't a quiz that plumbs the depths of your true policy preferences and then shows what party affiliation you identify with. If you don't already know what side you are on, the code words have no meaning.

326 steve_davis  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:47:15pm

re: #2 darthstar

Nothing's a lock. Get out and vote. I won't take anything for granted until I hear Mitt Romney give a concession speech where he talks about how he ran a clean campaign and respects the result of the election.

And then 10 minutes later walks it back, claiming he didn't run a clean campaign and doesn't respect shit.

327 Joanne  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:48:25pm

re: #318 Gus

Snoopy the cat. From China. Official page here: [Link: snoopy409.tumblr.com...]

Replying on my phone with many comments is touch and go, but I hadda...

ZOMFG!!! CUTEST. CAT. EVER! Hubby's diabetic and reaching for the pills. We're both on our respective devices going AWW! and CUTE!!

Thanks!

328 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:49:02pm

re: #327 Joanne

Replying on my phone with many comments is touch and go, but I hadda...

ZOMFG!!! CUTEST. CAT. EVER! Hubby's diabetic and reaching for the pills. We're both on our respective devices going AWW! and CUTE!!

Thanks!

YW. :)

329 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:49:04pm

re: #323 BishopX

I would also like to point out that the war imagery used against terrorists is a potent recruiting tool since it validates their world-view. Treating them like the scum they are rather than some dangerous hidden state-level actor does a lot to rob their propaganda of legitimacy.

But they are dangerous hidden actors, if not at the state level than at least on what Foreign Affairs has called the Mezzanine level (above a normal NGO or criminal organization, but below a state).

330 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:49:13pm

re: #320 Dark_Falcon

Here's the site Gus has been using.

That's the one.

331 Stanghazi  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:49:39pm

re: #291 Gus

Image: 94f4e633gw1dvju1druf2j.jpg

Genetically modified cat

332 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:51:34pm

re: #309 uncah91

Only in our electoral system. Other systems generate different models.

I'm having trouble keeping up here, feeding halloweeners , talking to the wife and thinking.

333 uncah91  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:52:22pm

re: #332 b_sharp

I'm having trouble keeping up here, feeding halloweeners , talking to the wife and thinking.

Don't think. It's proven to attract zombies.

334 lawhawk  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:52:31pm

re: #320 Dark_Falcon

I read that site as Love Me OW! /okay, my mind's in the gutter tonite.....

335 efuseakay  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:53:29pm

re: #318 Gus

Snoopy the cat. From China. Official page here: [Link: snoopy409.tumblr.com...]

Dang... Do I even dare say that kitty is cuter than Maru?!

336 alpuz  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:53:31pm

re: #216 Obdicut

I have but one upding to give.

337 Obdicut  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:53:36pm

re: #319 b_sharp

That's what they're designed to be. You're asking for too much logic. The first reaction people have to almost every situation is emotional, not logical. To get past fake answers, the initial response is required. That's why implicit testing is used.

I understand, dude, I really do. I still think it's stupid. I think the question they're asking is stupid and the way they're going about asking it is stupid. Furthermore, they're declaring that they know the scale by which to judge your answers in terms of being aligned with Democrats or Republicans. I just went through and blindly answered every question as 'completely agree' and wound up with 'moderate democrat'. That's nonsensical. That's someone with a large number of extreme positions.

Really, my problem isn't with the test qua test, it's that the subject being tested is-- exactly as I wrote about above-- a fiction. There is no 'more liberal' and 'more conservative' scale. All it is is party identification, how much their positions happen to coincide with the positions held by the majority in that party. Calling it more or less liberal to differ from that is a totally subjective judgement call.

338 steve_davis  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:54:11pm

re: #22 Lidane

I almost laughed out loud at that. Only the fact that my boss is close by stopped me.

Ah, yes. I remember those days before I got an internet gig, when the boss was close. Remember, when he/she is moving, you must stay perfectly still. They can smell fear and they react to movement. It's also good to wear something with vertical piping in the fabric, as the lines confuse them.

339 BishopX  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:54:21pm

re: #329 Dark_Falcon

Oh I agree that they're dangerous, I just think that handling them like we handle major drug cartels is a better way of doing it. Plenty of military cooperation with other countries, extensive investigations and pressure, small commando-style actions and if we ever get them we throw them in jail just like a common criminal.

340 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:58:08pm

re: #331 Page 3 in the Binder of Women

Genetically modified cat

Looks like a short haired Persian but it's actually an Exotic Shorthair. It's through hybridization. Some have breathing problems much like the big old boxers. Have to take care of them a well.

341 b_snark  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:58:38pm

re: #325 uncah91

I think what Obdi is saying is that this isn't a quiz that plumbs the depths of your true policy preferences and then shows what party affiliation you identify with. If you don't already know what side you are on, the code words have no meaning.

And what I'm saying is these surveys try to align core values, not policy issues, because policy issues are roughly aligned to core values. They aren't asking the respondent what party they belong to, they're trying to uncover what is below the surface.

What looks like a sloppy policy question may be an effective core issue question. I just don't know how the answers to these questions are being analyzed.

342 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 6:58:55pm

re: #339 BishopX

Oh I agree that they're dangerous, I just think that handling them like we handle major drug cartels is a better way of doing it. Plenty of military cooperation with other countries, extensive investigations and pressure, small commando-style actions and if we ever get them we throw them in jail just like a common criminal.

I disagree. They are dangerous enough that we need to react to them far more loudly and strongly. Even if we send them to prison, we have to house them separately in order to keep them from using their incarceration to convert fellow inmates to Salafist Islam.

343 Gus  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 7:00:19pm

Snoopy as a kitten at the end here: [Link: snoopy409.tumblr.com...]

344 goddamnedfrank  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 7:02:10pm

Thin, effeminate update:

345 ProGunLiberal  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 7:02:52pm

re: #275 The Ghost of a Flea

Kanye West is a thin-skinned, petty piece of crap.

346 jamesfirecat  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 7:04:17pm

re: #342 Dark_Falcon

I disagree. They are dangerous enough that we need to react to them far more loudly and strongly. Even if we send them to prison, we have to house them separately in order to keep them from using their incarceration to convert fellow inmates to Salafist Islam.

Unlike major drug dealers who would never try to convert those they have been put in prison alongside to following their way of life....

Or Neo-Nazis.

Or any other gang you care to name...

347 uncah91  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 7:04:58pm

Night Lizards!

348 Decatur Deb  Wed, Oct 31, 2012 7:07:41pm

re: #344 goddamnedfrank

Thin, effeminate update:

[Embedded content]

78.4 to 21.6 is too close for the consequences of a Romney win.

349 skylarkingtomfoolery  Thu, Nov 1, 2012 8:16:47am

Mrs. Tomfoolery is spending the day working with the Obama campaign here in Ohio (she is too shy to canvass so she is a database specialist). Because +5 is not just plus enough.

350 Bulworth  Thu, Nov 1, 2012 8:20:33am

Polls, schmolls. All I need to know Dicky Morris will tell me. //

351 thecommodore  Thu, Nov 1, 2012 8:50:25am

It is definitely NOT a lock. The polls in OH and elsewjere may be trending in Obama's favor, but this election is still very close.

Get out there and vote and tell your friends to do the same.


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