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Romney Gives Up on Florida - Obama Has 332 Electoral Votes

Landslide
Politics • Views: 25,143

We’re not going to have a long drawn-out Bush vs. Gore-style battle this time in Florida; the Romney camp (what’s left of it) has given up hope: Romney Team: We Lost Florida.

Mitt Romney’s senior adviser in Florida has given up on the state. 
“The numbers in Florida show this was winnable,” Brett Doster said in a statement obtained by the Miami Herald. “We thought based on our polling and range of organization that we had done what we needed to win. Obviously, we didn’t, and for that I, and every other operative in Florida has a sick feeling that we left something on the table.

That means the final electoral college count will be 332 Obama, 206 Romney — qualifying as an electoral landslide of major proportions.

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112 comments

1 Bulworth  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:48:04pm

So Dicky Morris was right. A landslide. /

2 dragonfire1981  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:48:18pm

Reposted from the thread downstairs.

To use a phrase I hear on Sportscenter sometimes: If you don't think this is awesome then you need awesome lessons.

3 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:48:23pm

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

4 SpaceJesus  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:48:58pm

Good job Nate

5 Ghost of Tom Joad  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:50:24pm

Spike that football.

6 nines09  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:50:34pm

re: #3 darthstar

"Need a ride? Tough shit."

7 Targetpractice  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:50:39pm

Nate Silver, take a bow.

8 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:51:53pm

re: #6 909Ghazis

"Need a ride? Tough shit."

Most only found out when they got home and tried to pay their cab fares...I suspect there was some anger at check out at their hotels as well.

9 erik_t  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:53:21pm

And that, I believe, is 50/50 for Mr. Silver.

10 Coracle  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:53:21pm

I think the best part of this all is that Florida didn't matter, in the end.

And, really, neither did Ohio.

My tentative prediction map had Obama losing FL, OH and VA (losing or having them in recount/litigation hell for weeks or months), and still winning with 272 as long as CO and PA held. Though I was worried about CO.

11 Bulworth  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:54:42pm

re: #9 erik_t

And that, I believe, is 50/50 for Mr. Silver.

Pure luck. /

12 nines09  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:54:49pm

re: #8 darthstar

Most only found out when they got home and tried to pay their cab fares...I suspect there was some anger at check out at their hotels as well.

You bet. Nice of them to just "Bain" them at the end. Classy.

13 Ghost of Tom Joad  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:54:55pm

re: #8 darthstar

Most only found out when they got home and tried to pay their cab fares...I suspect there was some anger at check out at their hotels as well.

Love how they talked about how the Romneys thanked their staffers, and Ann said "you'll always be part of the Romney family."

Could have given every staffer a nice vacation with one day's interestest from his off-shore investments.

And they wonder why this soulless Scrooge didn't win.

14 Lidane  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:55:13pm

re: #9 erik_t

And that, I believe, is 50/50 for Mr. Silver.

Yep. He called all 50 states correctly AND he also called the Electoral College vote exactly:

[Link: www.slate.com...]

The man is a stats god. That is all.

15 Sophist is the VillageGreen Preservation Society  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:55:23pm

re: #3 darthstar

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

Hey, he likes firing people, and he really needed something to cheer himself up.

16 OhNoZombies!  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:56:02pm

Terrorist fist bump to Decatur Deb!!!

17 Feline Emperor of the Conservative Tears  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:57:34pm

That squeaker the GOP pundits heard was the Romney campaign bus losing a wheel as it went off the cliff into obscurity.

18 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:57:35pm

And for those who say "Well sure, but the popular vote was close": the Obama team turned their efforts to getting the electoral votes, because that's the system we have. If they'd spent all their energy on popular vote, then they probably could have gotten higher numbers there, too.

Oh, and Obama won Asians.

I remember back when I thought the GOP was going to pick up Muslims and Asians. That was back when then GOP wasn't anti-government, and was proposing sensible things like, oh, a health insurance mandate.

The extremism of the GOP won them short term gains. We saw it time and time again, as they committed further and further to fanaticism and insanity, and were rewarded for it by an increasingly extreme GOP base. But the GOP base isn't big enough anymore, and it's eroding, and the insanity is impossible to simply back away from. I think in this case, the GOP focus on being anti-science lunatics is probably the biggest factor in estranging Asians, but the sad thing is there are so many possibilities of extremism that may have caused this.

19 Sophist is the VillageGreen Preservation Society  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:57:37pm

re: #14 Lidane

Yep. He called all 50 states correctly AND he also called the Electoral College vote exactly:

Uh, those two things are kinda connected, you know...

20 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:57:43pm
21 erik_t  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:57:45pm

re: #14 Lidane

Yep. He called all 50 states correctly AND he also called the Electoral College vote exactly:

[Link: www.slate.com...]

The man is a stats god. That is all.

Well, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if a simple average of all of the latest state polls got you 50/50. It would certainly get you very close, 45/50 or better. Far, far better than Dick Morris.

That's the thing. Nate Silver isn't some sort of prognosticator extraordinaire (although he's very, very good at explaining what he's doing to a broader audience). Data told us what was going to happen.

Science, bitches. It works.

22 DelusionDeluge  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:58:17pm

I'm sure it's been noted elsewhere, but Andrew Sullivan has said it best:

Will the Right's Fever Break?

But the person who fuses Manichean political warfare with theological certitude cannot, will not, abandon that stance for pragmatic purposes - because there is no greater evil than pragmatism for the fanatic. A political party can adapt and change; a fundamentalist religious party loses its entire authority if it admits error, because its message is based on religious texts that are held to be inerrant. The biggest obstacle in front of today's GOP threfore remains theo-political fundamentalism, and how it can be overcome.

Bravo.

23 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:58:35pm

re: #18 Obdicut

And for those who say "Well sure, but the popular vote was close": the Obama team turned their efforts to getting the electoral votes, because that's the system we have. If they'd spent all their energy on popular vote, then they probably could have gotten higher numbers there, too.

Oh, and Obama won Asians.

I remember back when I thought the GOP was going to pick up Muslims and Asians. That was back when then GOP wasn't anti-government, and was proposing sensible things like, oh, a health insurance mandate.

The extremism of the GOP won them short term gains. We saw it time and time again, as they committed further and further to fanaticism and insanity, and were rewarded for it by an increasingly extreme GOP base. But the GOP base isn't big enough anymore, and it's eroding, and the insanity is impossible to simply back away from. I think in this case, the GOP focus on being anti-science lunatics is probably the biggest factor in estranging Asians, but the sad thing is there are so many possibilities of extremism that may have caused this.

I'm "old" enough to remember when the Bush campaign reached out to Muslim Americans. My how things change.

24 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:58:37pm

WTF?

25 Ben G. Hazi  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:59:09pm

re: #3 darthstar

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

[Embedded content]

Never waste an opportunity to treat those in a lower social class than yourself like shit, even if they were working for you, right Mitt?

Dickhead...

26 JamesWI  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:59:15pm

The fact that his model correctly picked all 50 states isn't the biggest deal. Even RCP's terrible system picked 49, I believe.

To me, the bigger deal is how on the money he (and others like Sam Wang, etc.) was with the margins of victory. He predicted a 2.5% lead in the popular vote. According to RCP, the lead sits at 2.4%. Dead on with the prediction that Florida would be, as the pundits say, "razor tight."

27 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 12:59:30pm

re: #24 darthstar

WTF?

[Embedded content]

What's the point of having marijuana if it doesn't get you high?

28 erik_t  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:00:51pm

re: #27 HappyBenghazi

What's the point of having marijuana if it doesn't get you high?

Well, honestly, industrialized hemp would be a pretty fantastic thing. If laws were such that a modified undruggable marijuana were an entirely uncontrolled substance, that'd be a great thing for industry.

29 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:00:58pm

re: #27 HappyBenghazi

What's the point of having marijuana if it doesn't get you high?

You might want to ask that question of a cancer patient.

30 Feline Emperor of the Conservative Tears  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:01:00pm

re: #27 HappyBenghazi

What's the point of having marijuana if it doesn't get you high?

Making a rope you can tell those that annoy you to go piss up?
;)

31 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:01:19pm

re: #28 erik_t

Well, honestly, industrialized hemp would be a pretty fantastic thing. If laws were such that a modified marijuana were an entirely uncontrolled substance, that'd be a great thing for industry.

Yeah true. Brain fart.

32 OhNoZombies!  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:01:23pm

re: #3 darthstar

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

[Embedded content]

If Ann and Mitt do this to people they consider family, then I think we strangers dodged a bullet.

33 Lidane  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:01:30pm

re: #21 erik_t

That's the thing. Nate Silver isn't some sort of prognosticator extraordinaire (although he's very, very good at explaining what he's doing to a broader audience). Data told us what was going to happen.

Science, bitches. It works.

Like I said -- stats god. The guy used numbers and data to call the election exactly. He didn't rely on gut feelings, but on science. He put the lie to Faux News and all the RWNJ propaganda and exposed just how much of a bubble they all lived in.

The man did a massive public service and all he did was use numbers and data correctly.

34 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:01:40pm

re: #29 Hercules Grytpype-Thynne

You might want to ask that question of a cancer patient.

Yeah I wasn't thinking.

35 Ben G. Hazi  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:02:06pm

re: #15 Sophist is the VillageGreen Preservation Society

Hey, he likes firing people, and he really needed something to cheer himself up.

Pretty much.

36 Feline Emperor of the Conservative Tears  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:02:29pm

re: #34 HappyBenghazi

Yeah I wasn't thinking.

You might want to go get checked out. You may have caught a case of GOP.
(end snark)

37 BongCrodny  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:02:31pm

re: #3 darthstar

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

[Embedded content]

"Thank you for you hard work and dedication; now get the fuck out."

38 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:02:33pm
39 Targetpractice  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:03:16pm

re: #33 Lidane

Like I said -- stats god. The guy used numbers and data to call the election exactly. He didn't rely on gut feelings, but on science. He put the lie to Faux News and all the RWNJ propaganda and exposed just how much of a bubble they all lived in.

The man did a massive public service and all he did was use numbers and data correctly.

Think his greatest service was to prove that all those who declared the polls "skewed" and decried the idea that the voter turnout would mirror '08 rather than '10 to be talking out of their collective asses. He made Dick Morris look about as believable a prognosticator as Punxsutawney Phil.

40 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:03:20pm

re: #36 Feline Emperor of the Conservative Tears

You might want to go get checked out. You may have caught a case of GOP.
(end snark)

Does Obamacare cover that? I know it covers Romnesia.

41 BongCrodny  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:03:57pm

re: #9 erik_t

And that, I believe, is 50/50 for Mr. Silver.

So, Nate -- who do you like in the NFL this weekend?

42 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:04:24pm

re: #3 darthstar

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

[Embedded content]

Something tells me there were probably other incidents like this that will be coming out in the book about this election.

43 Gus  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:04:35pm
44 erik_t  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:04:53pm

re: #33 Lidane

Like I said -- stats god. The guy used numbers and data to call the election exactly. He didn't rely on gut feelings, but on science. He put the lie to Faux News and all the RWNJ propaganda and exposed just how much of a bubble they all lived in.

The man did a massive public service and all he did was use numbers and data correctly.

He's the best known, and the most readable, but far from the only. Like the baseball side, probably his most unique qualification is being on the forefront of the wave.

45 Lidane  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:05:07pm

re: #39 Targetpractice

He made Dick Morris look about as believable a prognosticator as Punxsutawney Phil.

In that contest, my money's on the groundhog.

46 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:05:40pm

re: #43 Gus

Karl Rove Obama suppressed the vote

[Embedded content]

Derpity derpy do.

He's got a lot of fucking nerve saying that after what all the state GOPs were trying to pull. A lot of fucking nerve. Go away turdblossom.

47 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:06:10pm

So, Nate, can you predict a pennant for my Orioles in baseball next year?

48 wrenchwench  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:06:32pm

Meanwhile, half a million votes remain to be counted in Arizona.

49 JamesWI  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:06:40pm

re: #45 Lidane

In that contest, my money's on the groundhog.

I'm going with World Cup Octopus for my picks, thank you very much.

50 Gus  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:06:41pm

re: #46 HappyBenghazi

He's got a lot of fucking nerve saying that after what all the state GOPs were trying to pull. A lot of fucking nerve. Go away turdblossom.

Anyone that thinks the GOP will change is delusional. After listening to this video I rest my case.

51 Charles Johnson  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:07:03pm

re: #43 Gus

Karl Rove Obama suppressed the vote

[Embedded content]

Derpity derpy do.

I love it. Obama "suppressed the vote" ... by running a better campaign.

52 Targetpractice  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:07:50pm

In another case of prognosticators far off the mark, the professor responsible for CU's hilariously bad prediction (Romney 330 - Obama 208) issued a mea culpa:

The anti-Silver: CU prof who projected Romney landslide issues mea culpa

53 OhNoZombies!  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:08:12pm

re: #46 HappyBenghazi

He's got a lot of fucking nerve saying that after what all the state GOPs were trying to pull. A lot of fucking nerve. Go away turdblossom.

He's just trying to bullshit his way out of paying back his creditors.
The chickens, are coming home, to roost.

54 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:08:59pm

re: #53 OhNoZombies!

He's just trying to bullshit his way out of paying back his creditors.
The chickens, are coming home, to roost.

Yeah I know. It's that he's spreading this to an audience who will believe him is what angers me.

55 lawhawk  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:09:00pm

re: #33 Lidane

His numbers and methods were apolitical. They didn't care about the mood swings of partisans who were dismayed when the debate didn't go his way or that world events intruded. They simply were calculated with a formula and precisely determined. They were reproducible. If you used his formula, you'd come to the same results.

And he didn't bs anyone about unskewing the polls - he was consistent in his methods throughout the polling period.

That carries weight - and it seems that Obama's team also utilized similar methods (Chris Lehane had predicted along these lines as well).

56 Gus  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:09:21pm

re: #51 Charles Johnson

I love it. Obama "suppressed the vote" ... by running a better campaign.

A feeble attempt to redefine voter suppression for his ignorant Fox News audience who will sit there and nod in agreement.

57 gwangung  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:09:39pm

re: #18 Obdicut

And for those who say "Well sure, but the popular vote was close": the Obama team turned their efforts to getting the electoral votes, because that's the system we have. If they'd spent all their energy on popular vote, then they probably could have gotten higher numbers there, too.

Oh, and Obama won Asians.

I remember back when I thought the GOP was going to pick up Muslims and Asians. That was back when then GOP wasn't anti-government, and was proposing sensible things like, oh, a health insurance mandate.

The extremism of the GOP won them short term gains. We saw it time and time again, as they committed further and further to fanaticism and insanity, and were rewarded for it by an increasingly extreme GOP base. But the GOP base isn't big enough anymore, and it's eroding, and the insanity is impossible to simply back away from. I think in this case, the GOP focus on being anti-science lunatics is probably the biggest factor in estranging Asians, but the sad thing is there are so many possibilities of extremism that may have caused this.

In Washington state, they had a golden opportunity in the mid 90s. Community was split 50/50, there were several elected Asian American officials, including the mayor of Bellevue (Microsoft territory) and the state Democrats pissed off the local community for not coming down on a party official who used an ethnic slur.

They had a royal opportunity to take over the Asian electorate, and they pissed it away--AND THEY DIDN'T LIFT A FINGER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE.

Tells me they just don't give a damn about people not like themselves.

58 nines09  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:09:39pm

re: #43 Gus

Karl Rove Obama suppressed the vote

[Embedded content]

Derpity derpy do.

Glenn Beck board and delusional talk.....Where have I seen this before.....

59 lawhawk  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:10:04pm

re: #41 BongGhazi

I believe he isn't much of a football fan. He's a baseball fanatic though. He probably could tell you the year in which the Cubs finally win the World Series. (Hint: Not in our lifetime)

60 Killgore Trout  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:10:23pm

Fox News is killing the Republican party

Perhaps most damaging of all was the way Fox prevented Romney and the Republicans from properly stress-testing their arguments. Time and again, a Romney surrogate would be taken apart on an issue like their economic policy or stance on abortion. But an hour later they’d be back in the Fox studio, being lobbed softballs and given a soft ride. And it lulled them and their campaign into thinking the earlier car-crash had been an aberration, just one more example of the venality of the MSM.

Obviously Fox are influential. They reach a wide audience, and are a major, well-resourced and professionally run national broadcast outlet. But I’m not so sure they’re as damaging to Democrats as Democrats fear, or as helpful to Republicans as Republicans like to think.

And as the GOP begins the process of sifting through the wreckage of its latest election defeat, it needs to learn a lesson. Just because you’re winning around Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity, it doesn’t mean you’re winning around America.

61 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:10:30pm

Shellshocked.

Their emotion was visible on their faces when they walked on stage after Romney finished his remarks, which Romney had hastily composed, knowing he had to say something.

Both wives looked stricken, and Ryan himself seemed grim. They all were thrust on that stage without understanding what had just happened.

"He was shellshocked," one adviser said of Romney.

62 JamesWI  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:00pm

re: #53 OhNoZombies!

He's just trying to bullshit his way out of paying back his creditors.
The chickens, are coming home, to roost.

The way Karl Rove's week has been going, how long before we find out he defrauded his investors/embezzled from his organizations and winds up going to a white-collar retreat (prison)?

That was my first thought when I saw him frantically trying to get everyone to stop saying that Ohio, and the election, was done. "Oh shit, I can't lose! Now everyone will start taking a closer look at what I was doing!"

63 Coracle  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:02pm

re: #59 lawhawk

I believe he isn't much of a football fan. He's a baseball fanatic though. He probably could tell you the year in which the Cubs finally win the World Series. (Hint: Not in our lifetime)

I could have used him as a Red Sox fan when I was a kid.

64 ProGunLiberal  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:14pm

Asked this on the last thread, but wanted to confirm.

Am I correct on assuming the road for D.C. to become a state is extremely steep?

65 Targetpractice  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:32pm

re: #55 lawhawk

His numbers and methods were apolitical. They didn't care about the mood swings of partisans who were dismayed when the debate didn't go his way or that world events intruded. They simply were calculated with a formula and precisely determined. They were reproducible. If you used his formula, you'd come to the same results.

And he didn't bs anyone about unskewing the polls - he was consistent in his methods throughout the polling period.

That carries weight - and it seems that Obama's team also utilized similar methods (Chris Lehane had predicted along these lines as well).

IIRC, TPM was saying that the Obama internal polls were all within .1% of the actual votes.

66 erik_t  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:43pm

re: #61 darthstar

Shellshocked.

Falling into your own spin-cycle is a recipe for unhappiness. So often the critical lesson is ignored: never get high on your own supply.

67 Sophist is the VillageGreen Preservation Society  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:45pm

re: #60 Killgore Trout

Fox News is killing the Republican party

Echo chambers don't prepare you for the real world. What a shock.

68 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:11:45pm

For perspective on electoral college numbers
1944: Democratic incumbent Franklin Roosevelt defeats Republican Thomas Dewey by 3.5 million votes and wins Electoral College 432 to 99.

1952: Republican Dwight Eisenhower defeats Democrat Adlai Stevenson by 6.6 million votes and wins Electoral College 442 to 89.

1956: Republican incumbent Dwight Eisenhower defeats Democrat Adlai Stevenson by 9.6 million votes and wins Electoral College 457 to 73.(asterisk)

1964: Democratic incumbent Lyndon Johnson defeats Republican Barry Goldwater by 15.9 million votes and wins Electoral College 486 to 52.

1972: Republican incumbent Richard Nixon defeats Democrat George McGovern by 18 million votes and wins Electoral College 520 to 17.(asterisk)

1980: Republican Ronald Reagan defeats Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter by 8.4 million votes and wins Electoral College 489 to 49.

1984: Republican incumbent Ronald Reagan defeats Democrat Walter Mondale by 16.9 million votes and wins Electoral College 525 to 13.

1988: Republican George H.W. Bush defeats Democrat Michael Dukakis by 7.1 million votes and wins Electoral College 426 to 111.

1992: Democrat Bill Clinton defeats Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush by 5.8 million votes and wins Electoral College 370 to 168.

1996: Democratic incumbent Bill Clinton defeats Republican Bob Dole by 7.7 million votes and wins Electoral College 379 to 159.

2008: Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain by 9.7 million votes and wins Electoral College 365 to 173.

(asterisk)Instance in which one or more electoral votes was cast for someone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee.

Read more here: [Link: www.kansascity.com...]

Gotta wonder what would happen if the EC was allocated instead of winner take all.

69 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:12:29pm

re: #61 darthstar

Shellshocked.

I love the fact that he was so protected inside his bubble of inevitability that he didn't even think about composing a concession speech until the last second, when he was forced to do so.

70 lawhawk  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:12:31pm

re: #61 darthstar

That's what happens when you live in a cocoon and listen to self-styled charlatans who feed you exactly what you want to hear rather than the hard truths about the state of the nation, polling, etc.

71 Gus  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:12:45pm

There has to be conservative reason why Obama won!!

//

72 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:12:45pm

re: #64 ProGunLiberal

Asked this on the last thread, but wanted to confirm.

Am I correct on assuming the road for D.C. to become a state is extremely steep?

Yeah, the Republicans in Congress are pretty much opposed to it. Sigh makes me miss Tom Davis even if his Democratic replacement is a great guy and representative.

73 Decatur Deb  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:14:23pm

re: #16 OhNoZombies!

Terrorist fist bump to Decatur Deb!!!

Stake. through. the. heart.

74 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:15:13pm

Landslide is subjective, but my take is how this helps advance the agenda. I don't think anyone should be yelling mandate. Not with the popular gap anywhere under 15%

75 ProGunLiberal  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:15:27pm

re: #72 HappyBenghazi

What are the different processes to getting a constitutional amendment? I am a bit rusty on them.

76 Gus  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:16:15pm
77 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:16:49pm

re: #75 ProGunLiberal

What are the different processes to getting a constitutional amendment? I am a bit rusty on them.

No idea since DC is obviously a different type of situation than Puerto Rico.

78 Kragar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:16:55pm

332 Obama, 206 Romney

What Dick Morris calls a squeaker for Obama.

79 lawhawk  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:17:21pm

re: #74 Daniel Ballard

We can go with Dick Morris' interpretation of landslide, which is defined as when Romney wins by a 325 to 213. But it's a squeaker when Obama wins by a bigger margin (332 to 206).

80 allegro  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:17:56pm

re: #61 darthstar

Shellshocked.

Delusional losers to the end. A fitting conclusion.

81 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:18:02pm

re: #76 Gus

[Embedded content]

My bet is a lot of Cuban Americans were disgusted with the Spanish language ad by Romney's allies comparing Obama to Castro, Chavez, and Che. These people or at least someone in their family know what a dictatorship is and they know that Barack Obama is not a dictator. God though if the Republicans are losing the Cubans. That's a real pathetic sign going forward for them in Florida politics.

82 ProGunLiberal  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:18:24pm

re: #77 HappyBenghazi

Yeah. I just want to see if there is any theoretical way out.

And I know it will require a constitutional convention.

83 jc717  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:18:30pm

re: #19 Sophist is the VillageGreen Preservation Society

Uh, those two things are kinda connected, you know...

Well, Maine and Nebraska split their electoral vote so it's possible to carry a state but not all the votes.

election.Princeton.edu did a great job as well, even called the ND senate race correctly.

84 Feline Emperor of the Conservative Tears  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:18:31pm

re: #64 ProGunLiberal

Asked this on the last thread, but wanted to confirm.

Am I correct on assuming the road for D.C. to become a state is extremely steep?

I would say that it probably is. There's a certain desire to keep the nation's capitol on "neutral" ground.

(Not to mention that they'd have to change all the license plates if their status changed.)

85 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:18:46pm

re: #78 Kragar

332 Obama, 206 Romney

What Dick Morris calls a squeaker for Obama.

If those numbers are reversed with the same popular vote for Romney, Dickhead is saying that Romney has a mandate. This is what hacks do.

86 darthstar  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:18:57pm
87 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:19:38pm

re: #74 Daniel Ballard

What effect does yelling mandate actually have?

Obama was elected president. That's the mandate he has.

88 Ben G. Hazi  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:19:43pm

re: #37 BongGhazi

"Thank you for you hard work and dedication; now get the fuck out."

Image: ari-gold-gtfo-sm.gif

89 HappyWarrior  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:19:46pm

re: #83 jc717

Well, Maine and Nebraska split their electoral vote so it's possible to carry a state but not all the votes.

election.Princeton.edu did a great job as well, even called the ND senate race correctly.

Gotta give it to Wang then. Thought there was no way that ND senate race would go to the Dem. Thought it may be close but I thought ND was such a red state and that combined with the presidential election would make the Republican a good bet.

90 ProGunLiberal  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:19:54pm

re: #84 Feline Emperor of the Conservative Tears

On the other hand, most other capitols which are in exclusive districts are usually considered states in their own rights around the world.

This is an outdated system that needs to change for DC.

91 geoduck  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:19:56pm

re: #48 wrenchwench

Meanwhile, half a million votes remain to be counted in Arizona.

We're still counting them in Washington State, which is one of the drawbacks to all-mail voting; ballots keep trickling in for several days. Not that the presidential contest was ever close here. Still waiting to see if the Dem candidate for governor will hold onto his lead. The Secretary of State race is even closer, with the GOP candidate ahead by a nose.

92 Mich-again  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:20:36pm

I have a FB friend who is abso-freaking-lutely sure than Obama somehow cheated because Mitt got less votes than John McCain did even though everyone knows GOP support for Mitt was much higher than it was for McCain. And according to him a C130 full of military personnel absentee votes never made it to the States from overseas.

The stupid, it burns..

93 Varek Raith  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:21:17pm

re: #3 darthstar

Mitt Romney - classy to the end.

[Embedded content]

What a dick.

94 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:30:18pm

re: #79 lawhawk

Heh. that's why I put up the chart. The nutjobs can yammer but history just IS.

95 goddamnedfrank  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:30:53pm

re: #68 Daniel Ballard

Gotta wonder what would happen if the EC was allocated instead of winner take all.

That would seeming be just as anti (small d) democratic and would favor the Republicans more under the current system. EC are allocated by the number of Senators and Reps a state has. There are more small red states with a full compliment of Senators and only a few reps, so the proposal won't alter their outcomes much, if at all. Also there are more geographically red areas in blue states than vice versa.

If we want a true gauge of support and who won we should just look at the popular vote. Unfortunately after 2000 the GOP enshrined keeping the electoral college as an official plank in their national platform. The whole purpose of the EC is to magnify any popular vote margin into a seemingly larger margin of victory for whoever wins.

96 lawhawk  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:31:13pm

re: #92 Mich-again

Eric Cartman got 'em.

97 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:33:13pm

re: #87 Obdicut

Oh I think we both wish he had a popular landslide, which would give him more leverage with the Congress and Senate. "mandate" sure helped several of the Presidents in my chart

98 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:39:27pm

re: #97 Daniel Ballard

Oh I think we both wish he had a popular landslide, which would give him more leverage with the Congress and Senate.

I wish he had a popular landslade because it'd show more people weren't persuaded by GOP bullshit. As I said, the actual contest is for electoral votes, so that's what Obama has concentrated on. If it were pure population, their strategy would be different.

Mandates don't exist. You get elected or you don't. The powers of the presidency don't change. Hell, there is gigantic popular support for higher taxes on the wealthy, and nobody seems to take it as a mandate that that's what the American people want.

99 Amory Blaine  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:47:31pm

re: #56 Gus

A feeble attempt to redefine voter suppression for his ignorant Fox News audience who will sit there and nod in agreement.

When the last liberal has left for the day, the wingnuts gather to sing his praises.

100 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 1:57:57pm

re: #98 Obdicut

I'm sorry i think your point just dies given the history books.
History very clearly shows Roosevelt and Reagan had popular mandates. I could include many links where respected reporters or pundits or historians use the term.

I just can't pretend those results never happened. Ezra Klein says it's a contemporary myth because elections are so close in modern times. I'll excerpt.

If you consider the mechanics of presidential mandates, it’s clear why they don’t amount to much. For one thing, contemporary elections are decided by narrow margins. Had 3.6 percent of the electorate voted the other way in 2008, Sen. John McCain would be president. In 2004, if 1.25 percent of Bush’s voters had switched sides, Sen. John Kerry would have won. In 2000, well, the winner didn’t even win the popular vote. In 1992 and 1996, Clinton won majorities in the Electoral College, but due to Ross Perot’s popularity, he never won the majority of the popular vote. None of these elections produced the kind of Rooseveltian or Reaganite landslides that cow the opposing party into submission.

101 BongCrodny  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 2:03:21pm

re: #88 Ben G. Hazi

Image: ari-gold-gtfo-sm.gif

I never watched Entourage when it was on; I made up for it by watching all eight seasons in a span of about three weeks.

Ari Gold was awesome.

102 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 2:06:03pm

re: #100 Daniel Ballard

I'm sorry i think your point just dies given the history books.
History very clearly shows Roosevelt and Reagan had popular mandates. I could include many links where respected reporters or pundits or historians use the term.

And I don't know what effect you think a mandate has. There is broad, supremajority support for raising taxes on the highest incomes, and yet that doesn't come to pass. Even though a majority of their own voters want them to do it, the GOP fights those taxes tooth and nail.

103 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 2:11:32pm

re: #102 Obdicut

I'll stick with how Ezra said it-Cowed the legislature into submission. That (unfortunately) ain't gonna happen in the coming months. It certainly did happen for some past presidents.

104 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 2:13:16pm

re: #103 Daniel Ballard

I'll stick with how Ezra said it-Cowed the legislature into submission. That (unfortunately) ain't gonna happen in the coming months. It certainly did happen for some past presidents.

I really, really have no clue what you're talking about. Yes, there's still a very large chunk of the population that support the GOP and support obstructionism against Obama, even against his practical policies that are literally those that the GOP held ten years ago. That is a fact.

What I am not getting is why you think popular support equals political support. If it does, how do you explain the GOP opposition to raising taxes on the wealthy, when their own voters support that?

105 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 2:34:29pm

re: #104 Obdicut

I'll try to explain it like this.
In the inverse your first paragraph helps my point. Since nearly half the voters were for Romney, obstructionism is a very high risk. if Obama had won by the margin Roosevelt or Reagan had this would be a far smaller risk or threat to the agenda.

106 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 2:39:13pm

re: #105 Daniel Ballard

I'll try to explain it like this.
In the inverse your first paragraph helps my point. Since nearly half the voters were for Romney, obstructionism is a very high risk. if Obama had won by the margin Roosevelt or Reagan had this would be a far smaller risk or threat to the agenda.

Yes. I understand that. It's a simple truism. It's something that doesn't need to be stated. I'm asking you why you're saying it as though it's something that needs to be said. Nobody is under the impression he won by a larger percentage of the popular vote than he did. What he did do was win by a very large percentage of the electoral college vote, which is how presidents get elected.

Is your point that we ought to do popular vote because then a candidate would focus more on getting a larger percentage of people to like him regardless of state?

107 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 3:40:00pm

re: #106 Obdicut

In one post you have no idea what I mean. In the above you dismiss it as unworthy of mention. Huh? in one instance mandates don't exist and in another they are a truism? Not sure how well those two things square up. Maybe I have misunderstood you.

You deny the very existence of a widely acknowledged political phenomenon. Of course they exist, just not lately. Could happen again next time around. Is it the word mandate you object to? maybe you like landslide better? Label a really big win as you wish. we both know that carries advantage for the President that gets it.
Bottom line to my point-
Big win equals mandate equals landslide, becomes leverage to forward the Presidential agenda through the houses. I'm sorry to see that despite a big EC win, he does not have the big win mandate to beat up the GOP with. Damn it.

108 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 3:45:30pm

re: #107 Daniel Ballard

In one post you have no idea what I mean. In the above you dismiss it as unworthy of mention. Huh? in one instance mandates don't exist and in another they are a truism? Not sure how well those two things square up. Maybe I have misunderstood you.

Yes, you have. I don't understand what a mandate is because it appears to be a truism, to me.

Big win equals mandate equals landslide, becomes leverage to forward the Presidential agenda through the houses. I'm sorry to see that despite a big EC win, he does not have the big win mandate to beat up the GOP with. Damn it.

He had a landslide in electoral votes. But what you're not answering is why you think popular support = political action. I've pointed out that raising taxes on the highest income has popular support among even GOP voters, and very high support among Americans as a whole.

109 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 3:55:20pm

re: #108 Obdicut

And I pointed out that at least two Presidents have enjoyed exactly what you denied exists. That's my answer-mandates with the advantage they carry is a real phenomenon. Obdi, you are just incorrect, mandates do exist. Not commonly but certainly. Calling them a truism changes nothing about them. The further complexities of when they do not happen to occur does not take away the history of popular mandates helping a president advance his agenda.

Why do I think huge popular support can become political action? Because I read of it as a fact in the history articles about Roosevelt and saw it with my own eyes when Reagan won so big.

110 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 5:54:00pm

re: #109 Daniel Ballard

And I pointed out that at least two Presidents have enjoyed exactly what you denied exists.

I have no clue what this thing is, though, or what it led to.

That's my answer-mandates with the advantage they carry is a real phenomenon. Obdi, you are just incorrect, mandates do exist. Not commonly but certainly. Calling them a truism changes nothing about them. The further complexities of when they do not happen to occur does not take away the history of popular mandates helping a president advance his agenda.

So why, despite there being a popular mandate to raise taxes on the wealthy, has that not happened?

Why do I think huge popular support can become political action? Because I read of it as a fact in the history articles about Roosevelt and saw it with my own eyes when Reagan won so big.

So why, despite there being a popular mandate to raise taxes on the wealthy, has that not happened?

111 Daniel Ballard  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 6:58:24pm

re: #110 Obdicut

re: #110 Obdicut

I have no clue what this thing is, though, or what it led to.

So why, despite there being a popular mandate to raise taxes on the wealthy, has that not happened?

So why, despite there being a popular mandate to raise taxes on the wealthy, has that not happened?

On one level, you have taken my point about a President & his agenda winning big and using that to forward his agenda through the two houses and changed it. To a mandate without a candidate. Not The Same Thing. Since that's not a point I'm making I have no need to address it.

But to make a fair try at answering the spirit of the question-
I do add that California just did exactly that. And the nation may very well do the same January 1st. Reid says for any compromise to happen at all it starts with the condition of the taxes going back up on the rich.

112 Obdicut  Thu, Nov 8, 2012 7:39:54pm

re: #111 Daniel Ballard

On one level, you have taken my point about a President & his agenda winning big and using that to forward his agenda through the two houses and changed it. To a mandate without a candidate. Not The Same Thing. Since that's not a point I'm making I have no need to address it.

I'm really trying to get a grasp on the magic of the mandate, but I'm failing to.

I do add that California just did exactly that. And the nation may very well do the same January 1st. Reid says for any compromise to happen at all it starts with the condition of the taxes going back up on the rich.

Yeah, freakin' finally. It's taken goddamn forever. Anyway, my point is that just because something is very popular doesn't mean it'll actually get anywhere politically. Our system is not all that responsive to populist appeal.


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