TwitterFacebook

The Marc Morano Fudge Factor: Links to Steve Goddard Nonsense

A nod is as good as a wink.
Science • Views: 28,169

Corrected Dec 8.12 - see below…

Marc Morano, a infamous AGW denialist, debated Bill Nye the Science Guy on CNN recently. During the debate Morano peppered the air with a vituperative Gish Gallup aimed at Bill who was standing in for the climate science community.

Morano threw too many talking points for Bill to field effectively and as is common when a scientist goes up against a professional PR hack, he looked outclassed and flustered. I suspect Bill simply wasn’t prepared for the volume and blatant dishonesty.

It would take a rather lengthy paper to dismantle every point Morano made, so I decided to take a look at a couple of related arguments. One of Morano’s arguments revolves around the evidence for increased severe weather and the use of hurricane Sandy as an example of the effects of AGW on the Atlantic storm season.

In a well rehearsed and technically correct cherry picked comment, Morano links to a Steve Goddard article where Goddard mentioned the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the strongest storm to ever hit land in the US. The implication is that for AGW’s affect on severe weather to be true, past storms can not be as strong as current storms. A ridiculously illogical statement, but that’s the intended message.

Most Powerful Atlantic Hurricanes to hit the US (Figure 1)

As you can see by Figure 1, the Labor Day hurricane is indeed the most powerful to have hit the coast, based not on damage done but on atmospheric pressure.

What Morano Goddard fails to mention is that in any given year there is an energy reserve that is split between the number of yearly storms. That means there could be a small number of severe storms as in 1883 when there were 4 storms, a cat 1, two cat 3s and a cat 4, or a large number of small storms as in 1901 when there were 13 storms, four cat 1s, one cat 2 and the rest never reaching hurricane status, or a combination.

Atlantic Energy Store Model (Figure 2)
Energy Store Model 2 (Figure 3)

The two graphs shown above are weighted to give a rough indication of the Atlantic energy reserve. They are back of the envelope models. The first graph, Figure 2 has non-hurricane storms (tropical storms and tropical depressions) weighted at 1, so the number of those storms are added together. Hurricanes are weighted according to strength, category 1 are given a weight of 2, category 2 are given a weight of 3 and so on. Weighting values are completely arbitrary because we aren’t interested in absolute energy values, just in whether the energy reserves are trending or flat. To show that the values chosen don’t skew the results appreciably, the second graph uses smaller weightings. Category 1 weight is 1.1, category 2 is 1.2, category 3 is 1.3 and so on.

It’s obvious from both Figure2 and Figure3 that the energy store in the Atlantic is trending upward.

Raw Atlantic Storm Numbers

One consequence of an increased store of energy is that the number of storms will go up as shown in the above graph.

Most Powerful Atlantic Hurricane. (Figure 4)

A second consequence of increased available energy is the severity goes up. This doesn’t mean that every year will necessarily have more severe storms than the previous year, or that any given storm will break previous severity records. What it means is the probability of a severe storm will trend upwards. For example a one in a century storm could become a one in a half, or quarter century storm.

The table (Figure4) posted above shows that is happening. Contrary to what Morano Goddard intends the listener to infer, all storms are important, not just those landing on the US coast. Of the top 11 Atlantic storms, 6 of them have occurred since 1997. Only 3 predate the time AGW has become obvious.

What can be learned from this is that because we observe the number of storms increasing, the probability of severe storms going up, as well as an increasing Atlantic ocean energy content, less energy is re-radiating out to space.

___________________________________________________________
Update:

After reading Morano’s post about this article, I listened to the debate again to find where he commented on the 1935 hurricane. His comments at his site are correct, he did not mention that hurricane in the debate. The comment was from Steve Goddard on the ‘Real-Science’ blog.

The most active period for major hurricanes in the US was 1931-1960. The frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago. The most intense hurricane to ever hit the US occurred in 1935.

Morano’s blog, climatedepot.com has a page labelled “AZ-Climate-Reality-Check” which is anything but a reality check, but contains a link to a page referencing the Goddard page.

Morano Makes a Claim About Atlantic Hurricanes.

My apologies to Marc Morano for claiming he said something in a debate he didn’t say, although he obviously agrees with it given the links on his site.

My apologies to Charles Johnson for publishing a page with bad information. I was obviously confused by the support given to Goddard by Morano on climatedepot.com.

All errors in this page are mine, and mine alone.

^ back to top ^

TwitterFacebook

Turn off all ads for a full year by subscribing!
For about 33 cents a day (per month) or 22 cents a day (per year), our subscription option turns off all advertisements at LGF!
Read more...

► LGF Headlines

  • Loading...

► Tweeted Articles

  • Loading...

► Tweeted Pages

  • Loading...

► Top 10 Comments

  • Loading...

► Bottom Comments

  • Loading...

► Recent Comments

  • Loading...

► Tools/Info

► Tag Cloud

► Contact

You must have Javascript enabled to use the contact form.
Your email:

Subject:

Message:


Messages may be published unless you request otherwise.
Tech Note:
Using the Contact Form
LGF Pages

This button leads to the main index of LGF Pages, our user-submitted articles. You can post your own LGF Pages simply by registering a free account with us.

Create a Page

This is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.

Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.

Last updated: 2014-03-07 2:19 pm PST

LGF User's Guide
Recent Pages
Randall Gross
Mad Max: Fury Road - Comic Con Footage - Official Warner Bros.
#MadMax - Like the official Facebook page for updates facebook.com Follow us on Twitter at @MadMaxMovieUK Official Comic Con Footage for Mad Max: Fury Road - In UK Cinemas May 15 2015 Oscar-winning filmmaker George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury ...

9 hours, 27 minutes ago
Views: 111 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 1 • Rating: 2
Rightwingconspirator
Washington, D.C., Handgun Carry Ban Is Ruled Unconstitutional
I agree. Bans are not an option. Jurisdictions like DC will just have to deal with the fact that regulation is the path. Bans don't work. Bans are illegal and unwise. It's simple. we as a society have chosen to ...

13 hours, 18 minutes ago
Views: 210 • Comments: 13
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 1
Romantic Heretic
Preventing Poverty Not Allowed As A Goal for Charity
The Canada Revenue Agency (Canada's equivalent of the IRS) has told OXFAM Canada that it cannot list 'preventing poverty' as a goal, only 'alleviating' it. The reason is "Relieving poverty is charitable, but preventing it is not." This is just ...

2 days, 14 hours ago
Views: 337 • Comments: 10
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 4
FemNaziBitch
Safer Era Tests Wisdom of ‘Broken Windows’ Focus on Minor Crime
While the apparent chokehold fueled much of the initial public outcry, community leaders have begun asking whether focusing police officers so intently on such petty offenses makes sense in a city that is far different and far safer than ...

2 days, 21 hours ago
Views: 261 • Comments: 2
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 1
Mentis Fugit
Frisson
Over at the quirky Riddled blog, I encountered this music video link. I have the album, but I had last listened long ago, and I had forgotten the lyrics. The lengthy, moody intro slowly drew me back thirty five years, ...

5 days, 7 hours ago
Views: 221 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 0
BadExampleMan
The painful futility of war
This makes me furious. These men pledged their loyalty to their country and their country betrayed them. It treated them as disposable, throwing their lives away in a war that was premised on lies, that was chosen gleefully, and that ...

1 week ago
Views: 400 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 1 • Rating: 1
MichaelJ
Mick Fanning Wins J-Bay Open 2014
More: MICK FANNING WINS J-BAY OPEN Finals day for the contest was run in perfect Supertubes conditions. Too bad Kelly Slater and Jordy Smith were eliminated in lesser quality surf - it would have been amazing to have both of ...

1 week ago
Views: 316 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 2
Thrazidun
Paris: Jews Fight Back Against Islamist Mob - Jewish World - News - Arutz Sheva
More: Paris: Jews Fight Back Against Islamist Mob - Jewish World - News - Arutz Sheva

1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 939 • Comments: 5
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 2
GlutenFreeJesus
Gotta love Chicago
Admittedly, I only started following these guys in the past year or two. They have been in the Chicago scene for awhile. And I kick myself after every show for not following them sooner. For any fans of Led Zeppelin, ...

1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 442 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 2
wheat-dogghazi
Rachel Aviv: A Middle-School Cheating Scandal Raises Questions About No Child Left Behind
Writing for The New Yorker, Rachel Aviv profiles some of the teachers and principals caught up in Atlanta's standardized cheating scandal. Focusing on Parks Middle School, which is located in a "rough" section of the city, her article portrays a ...

1 week, 3 days ago
Views: 650 • Comments: 2
Tweets: 8 • Rating: 2
 Frank says:

Let's not be too tough on our own ignorance. It's the thing that makes America great.