The Marc Morano Fudge Factor: Links to Steve Goddard Nonsense

A nod is as good as a wink.
Science • Views: 29,846

Corrected Dec 8.12 - see below…

Marc Morano, a infamous AGW denialist, debated Bill Nye the Science Guy on CNN recently. During the debate Morano peppered the air with a vituperative Gish Gallup aimed at Bill who was standing in for the climate science community.

Morano threw too many talking points for Bill to field effectively and as is common when a scientist goes up against a professional PR hack, he looked outclassed and flustered. I suspect Bill simply wasn’t prepared for the volume and blatant dishonesty.

It would take a rather lengthy paper to dismantle every point Morano made, so I decided to take a look at a couple of related arguments. One of Morano’s arguments revolves around the evidence for increased severe weather and the use of hurricane Sandy as an example of the effects of AGW on the Atlantic storm season.

In a well rehearsed and technically correct cherry picked comment, Morano links to a Steve Goddard article where Goddard mentioned the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the strongest storm to ever hit land in the US. The implication is that for AGW’s affect on severe weather to be true, past storms can not be as strong as current storms. A ridiculously illogical statement, but that’s the intended message.

Most Powerful Atlantic Hurricanes to hit the US (Figure 1)

As you can see by Figure 1, the Labor Day hurricane is indeed the most powerful to have hit the coast, based not on damage done but on atmospheric pressure.

What Morano Goddard fails to mention is that in any given year there is an energy reserve that is split between the number of yearly storms. That means there could be a small number of severe storms as in 1883 when there were 4 storms, a cat 1, two cat 3s and a cat 4, or a large number of small storms as in 1901 when there were 13 storms, four cat 1s, one cat 2 and the rest never reaching hurricane status, or a combination.

Atlantic Energy Store Model (Figure 2)
Energy Store Model 2 (Figure 3)

The two graphs shown above are weighted to give a rough indication of the Atlantic energy reserve. They are back of the envelope models. The first graph, Figure 2 has non-hurricane storms (tropical storms and tropical depressions) weighted at 1, so the number of those storms are added together. Hurricanes are weighted according to strength, category 1 are given a weight of 2, category 2 are given a weight of 3 and so on. Weighting values are completely arbitrary because we aren’t interested in absolute energy values, just in whether the energy reserves are trending or flat. To show that the values chosen don’t skew the results appreciably, the second graph uses smaller weightings. Category 1 weight is 1.1, category 2 is 1.2, category 3 is 1.3 and so on.

It’s obvious from both Figure2 and Figure3 that the energy store in the Atlantic is trending upward.

Raw Atlantic Storm Numbers

One consequence of an increased store of energy is that the number of storms will go up as shown in the above graph.

Most Powerful Atlantic Hurricane. (Figure 4)

A second consequence of increased available energy is the severity goes up. This doesn’t mean that every year will necessarily have more severe storms than the previous year, or that any given storm will break previous severity records. What it means is the probability of a severe storm will trend upwards. For example a one in a century storm could become a one in a half, or quarter century storm.

The table (Figure4) posted above shows that is happening. Contrary to what Morano Goddard intends the listener to infer, all storms are important, not just those landing on the US coast. Of the top 11 Atlantic storms, 6 of them have occurred since 1997. Only 3 predate the time AGW has become obvious.

What can be learned from this is that because we observe the number of storms increasing, the probability of severe storms going up, as well as an increasing Atlantic ocean energy content, less energy is re-radiating out to space.

___________________________________________________________
Update:

After reading Morano’s post about this article, I listened to the debate again to find where he commented on the 1935 hurricane. His comments at his site are correct, he did not mention that hurricane in the debate. The comment was from Steve Goddard on the ‘Real-Science’ blog.

The most active period for major hurricanes in the US was 1931-1960. The frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago. The most intense hurricane to ever hit the US occurred in 1935.

Morano’s blog, climatedepot.com has a page labelled “AZ-Climate-Reality-Check” which is anything but a reality check, but contains a link to a page referencing the Goddard page.

Morano Makes a Claim About Atlantic Hurricanes.

My apologies to Marc Morano for claiming he said something in a debate he didn’t say, although he obviously agrees with it given the links on his site.

My apologies to Charles Johnson for publishing a page with bad information. I was obviously confused by the support given to Goddard by Morano on climatedepot.com.

All errors in this page are mine, and mine alone.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2016-01-01 10:29 am PST
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Recent PagesClick to refresh
Long Read by NyMag: The Case Against the Media-by the MediaNyMag: THE CASE AGAINST THE MEDIA. BY THE MEDIA. As the media anxiety around media anxiety began to crescendo this spring, we at New York decided to turn our journalistic operation in on itself to investigate just how bad the ...
Eric The Fruit Bat
4 hours, 2 minutes ago
Views: 72 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
The Reviews Are In: Conservatives Say the DNC Was ‘Disaster’ for the GOPIn Which Tea Party Republicans and Neocons agree that the Democratic Convention message was better. National Review editor Jonah Goldberg: Why this convention is better: It's about loving America. GOP convention was about loving Trump. If you didn't love Trump, ...
Thanos
8 hours, 41 minutes ago
Views: 374 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 2
Tweets: 93 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 1
Likes: 2
Comments: 0
: 3
Constance Wu on Hollywood’s White Savior Problem: ‘Our Heroes Don’t Look Like Matt Damon’ Constance Wu has had it with Hollywood's white savior complex. The Fresh Off the Boat actress and two-time Television Critics Association Awards nominee posted a pointed letter to Twitter Friday, in which she criticized the whitewashing of Chinese history ...
Thanos
9 hours, 6 minutes ago
Views: 142 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Fox Station Photographer Reportedly Fired After Facebook Post on Michael Brown’s Mom A St. Louis journalist has reportedly been fired after making offensive Facebook comments about the mother of Michael Brown, the teenager whose shooting death ignited weeks of emotional protests in Missouri and led, eventually, to the birth of the ...
Thanos
9 hours, 17 minutes ago
Views: 510 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 170 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 2
Likes: 1
Comments: 0
: 3
Donald Trump Is ‘Starting to Agree’ Hillary Clinton Should Be Locked Up For a major party’s presidential nominee to suggest that his chief opponent should be incarcerated appears to have no precedent over the last century of U.S. political campaigns. But that’s nothing unusual for Trump. He broke new ground earlier ...
Thanos
9 hours, 57 minutes ago
Views: 216 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 20 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 1
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 1
Pope Visits Auschwitz Deathcamp During Poland Visit Pope Francis arrived on Friday at Auschwitz, the notorious former German Nazi concentration camp in Poland, in a historic visit to pay tribute to the more than 1 million people, mostly Jews, who lost their lives there during World ...
Thanos
1 day, 10 hours ago
Views: 135 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
One San Diego Police Officer Killed, Second Hurt One of two police officers shot in San Diego early Friday has died, authorities said. "It is with a very sad heart that we announce the death of one of our officers tonight. Pray for his family," the San ...
Thanos
1 day, 10 hours ago
Views: 145 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
• Eumir Deodato - Rhapsody in Blue• 1973 LP •Great funky cover of this Gershwin classic. From Deodato 2 CTI LP, another classic album.
Thanos
1 day, 22 hours ago
Views: 159 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
David Crosby - Behind the Scenes of Lighthouse Behind the scenes of David Crosby's new record "Lighthouse". Lighthouse is available for pre-order on CD and Vinyl now, and will be available October 21st worldwide. Pre-order digital: smarturl.itPre-order physical CD: bit.lyPre-order vinyl: bit.lyPre-order Amazon: smarturl.it Produced by Michael ...
Thanos
1 day, 22 hours ago
Views: 134 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Eva Atmatzidou - Rondat - Acoustic Guitar Music downloads and Guitar Tabs available at: candyrat.com itunes: itunes.apple.comApple Music: itun.esAmazon: amzn.com Composed and performed by Eva Atmatzidou.Recorded by Vangelis Karapetros (Studio Puzzle).Filmed by Eleftheria Anthi. Visit Eva Atmatzidou at : Website: atmatzidou.grFacebook profile: el-gr.facebook.comFacebook page: facebook.com ...
Thanos
1 day, 22 hours ago
Views: 140 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Likes: 0
Comments: 0
: 0