Republicans Are Beginning To Worry They Could Lose The House In 2014

Here are 5 reasons why they could melt faster than the ice in the Arctic
Politics • Views: 28,326

Let me start off by saying that for the GOP to lose the House of Representatives would require a meltdown worse than we’re seeing in the Arctic.

“The number of competitive districts is at its lowest since Cook first started the partisanship rating in the 1998 election cycle,” the Cook Political Report announced earlier this year.

After the Republican landslide of 2010, the party’s leaders redistricted the congressional map so effectively that even though they received 1.4 million fewer votes than Democratic House candidates in 2012, they still kept a 17-seat majority in the House. And even without yogic gerrymandering, Americans have naturally gerrymandered themselves.

“Democrats move to cities and overwhelmingly vote for Democrats,” The Atlantic Wire’s Philip Bump wrote. “If Democrats want to re-take the House, they should move to Wyoming.”

I explain how safe the Republican House majority should be to illustrate how remarkable it is that Republicans have begun to worry that they could lose the House, something they hadn’t imagined was possible until the first election after the next redistricting in 2022.

“Several influential Republicans told us the party is actually in a worse place than it was Nov. 7, the day after the disastrous election,” Politico’s Mike Allen and Jim Vandehei reported last week. They couldn’t find a Republican in Washington D.C. who didn’t see “a disaster in the making.”

Here are five reasons that even Republicans look at their representatives in the House and see disaster.

Photo: Screenshot via cookpolitical.com

1. Seniors

“We have seen other voters pull back from the GOP, but among no group has this shift been as sharp as it is among senior citizens,” Democracy Corp’s Erica Seifert wrote recently.

The reasons behind this range from the obvious — Republicans have widely embraced plans for dismantling Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid, all of which provide crucial support to older Americans — to the slightly less obvious — the economy and being frustrated with the GOP’s extremism.

In 2010, the electorate was much older than usual and seniors voted for Republicans by a 19 percent margin. If that margin stays where it is in Democracy Corps’ most recent poll — 6 percent — that wouldn’t give Democrats the House but it would set the stage for a very close election.

Photo: Fibonacci Blue via flickr.com

2. Immigration

There are at least five and maybe as many as a million ways that immigration reform could fall apart in the House. And there’s only one way it passes: “Shut up and get it done.”

That’s the recommendation of California’s Republicans, according to Politico’s Jake Sherman.

If California is the ghost of the political future, Republicans should be terrified. The state’s redistricting reform and the GOP’s two-decade-old strategy of alienating Latinos has the state’s Republican House members feeling as if they are on the endangered species list.

“Eleven of the 15 districts held by Republicans are a quarter or more Hispanic — and some of them are prime targets for Democrats who need 17 seats to take back the House in 2014,” Sherman wrote.

But the worst-case scenario isn’t just immigration reform failing. It’s reform failing and lots more scenes like this crowd cheering the prospect of a little girl’s dad being deported.

Photo: Fibonacci Blue via flickr.com

3. Voter Suppression Backfire

North Carolina’s Republicans have done the nation a service by highlighting how the GOP’s effort to pass voter ID laws and strengthen the “integrity” of the vote is just a bald-faced effort to stop minorities, students and Democrats in general from voting.

The only way to defeat these suppression measures is to focus on registration and getting voters whatever identification they need to cast their votes. This effort has already begun in California and as Texas and other states engage in the kind of discriminatory voting restrictions the Voting Rights Act used to block, the backlash could spread.

The minority vote will already be 2 percent larger in 2014 than 2010 because of population growth, according to Ruy Teixeira, a Senior Fellow at both The Century Foundation and American Progress. If minorities support Democrats at levels close to how they backed President Obama, that helps erase the advantage Republicans have going into the election.

Photo: hjl via flickr.com

4. Complete Incompetence

The number of people who identify with the Republican Party has been shrinking since last year’s election. This could be just a hangover of a big election loss, or the sign of actual dissatisfaction with the party.

In the House, Republicans have failed to pass a Farm Bill that includes Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program benefits (aka food stamps or SNAP) and the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee says that the sequestration, which conservatives are claiming as their one big victory in cutting big government, is unworkable.

“Later this year, Congress will contend with sequestration and equal pay for women, both of which present Republicans a choice of alienating their own base or riling their political enemies,” writes Salon’s Brian Beutler. The second year of the sequestration includes cuts to defense that few Republicans are going to want to defend, meaning they may actually have to compromise.

The GOP’s aversion to compromise makes the likelihood of some sort of government shutdown or debt default a possibility.

Republicans have somehow won back the mantle of fiscal responsibility after blowing the surplus and George W. Bush leaving office with a $1.4 trillion deficit, but their intractability threatens to remind voters of the real reason they rejected Republicans so completely in 2008: incompetence.

If party of personal responsibility makes it clear that they are unwilling to govern, what’s is their argument for re-election? The Washington Examiner’s Byron York, a conservative himself, says the House GOP needs an agenda to run on and win. Threatening to blow up the economy to stop President Obama from getting health insurance to tens of millions of people, he seems to feel, just isn’t good enough.

5. Obamacare

What if the thing Republicans spent years demonizing turns out to be a lifesaver for tens of millions of Americans?

It’s already happened for former Republican congressional staffer Clint Murphy.

The cancer survivor was recently denied health insurance because of his sleep apnea. That was too much. After years of fighting the Democratic agenda, he went on Facebook and told his conservative friends what he thought about their never-ending effort to destroy Obamacare: “When you say you’re against it, you’re saying that you don’t want people like me to have health insurance.”

To many, this kind of experience suggests that self-interest is the only way to convince Republicans that all Americans need health insurance. But self-interest when it comes to health insurance isn’t to be dismissed lightly.

“Health insurance isn’t like other forms of insurance,” writes Bloomberg’s Ezra Klein. “It’s not protection against the unlikely; it’s insulation against the inevitable. Most people never use their fire insurance. Almost everyone uses their health insurance. Eventually.”

The New York Times’ Paul Krugman keeps saying that the Republicans’ biggest fear is going to come true: Obamacare will work.

This may be wishful thinking but keep in mind that 26 million Americans will be getting tax credits to help them buy insurance. Many of them have no idea that this assistance is coming. Millions more will get completely subsidized Medicaid and millions more will find out that they could be getting Medicaid if the Republicans in their state would just take the coverage their residents will be paying for.

There’s no doubt that there will be hurdles (and roadblocks put up by Republicans). The right is going to blame every splinter in every tongue depressor on Obamacare. But there are literally tens of millions of opportunities for Americans to be better off because of this law. If just a fraction of the Americans who can benefit do, gratitude for the Democrats who passed it or anger at the Republicans who have spent years trying to repeal the law with no replacement to offer could be enough to change the electorate in ways we cannot fathom today.

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97 comments
1 Joanne  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:13:38am

Not if Glenn Greenwald, et al, have anything to say about it. He is working tirelessly to get more Republicans elected.

2 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:48:14am

Looks like GOP has a lock on all the places where nobody lives.

3 erik_t  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:49:32am

re: #1 Joanne

Not if Glenn Greenwald, et al, have anything to say about it. He is working tirelessly to get more Republicans elected.

I’m not convinced that any of this will weigh more than a fart in a stiff gale compared to actual things that affect people every day. It’s had trouble even staying in the news for a month of summer doldrums; the next Fed rate change will send it to page seventeen.

4 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:49:40am

re: #2 Vicious Babushka

Looks like GOP has a lock on all the places where nobody lives.

The GOP: Party of the Great Wide Nothing

5 celticdragon  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:49:42am

I am still trying to figure out how they managed to present themselves as fiscally responsible after the reign of Bush The Lesser.

Liberal news media my ass. The spending binge should have been shoved in the faces of American voters for months on end.

6 erik_t  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:50:02am

re: #2 Vicious Babushka

Looks like GOP has a lock on all the places where nobody lives.

Goodness, dopefish needs to get in here and start bragging left and right.

7 celticdragon  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:50:41am

re: #4 Kragar

The GOP: Party of the Great Wide Nothing

Scrub. Antelopes. Scrubby antelopes.

Welcome to the high plains…

8 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:55:07am

re: #7 celticdragon

Scrub. Antelopes. Scrubby antelopes.

Welcome to the high plains…

Where men are men, and sheep run scared…

10 lawhawk  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:57:11am

Yup. Millions of people will get tax credits to pay for health insurance - those making up to 400% of the poverty levels for the calendar year on a sliding scale. That means someone making up to nearly $80,000 a year could get a credit for at least a portion of the health insurance costs.

So while the GOP yammers away about how much premiums cost (ignoring that they’re comparing someone who has no health insurance at all or someone on a bare-bones policy that doesn’t provide preventative care or eliminates preexisting conditions restrictions, or allows dependents up to age 26), they ignore the other part of the law that provides the tax credit to help cover the costs for health insurance.

It’s not a perfect solution, but it is a start.

It doesn’t have to be a perfect solution. That the law eliminates the preexisting conditions limitations, and extends dependent coverage to age 26 means that millions more will gain access to coverage.

11 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 11:58:09am

PLEASE PROCEED BRYAN

12 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:00:09pm

“If minorities support Democrats at levels close to how they backed President Obama, that helps erase the advantage Republicans have going into the election.”

That’s the problem, they won’t. Lots of Democrats simply don’t turn out to vote in mid-terms. I keep hoping that many of them will come to realize that if they don’t send people to Congress to work with the President it ties his hands, but most people are too busy living their lives and trying to get by day-to-day to pay much attention to politics most of the time.

13 wrenchwench  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:02:18pm
14 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:03:11pm

re: #11 Vicious Babushka

PLEASE PROCEED BRYAN

[Embedded content]

Youtube Video

15 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:03:31pm

What is this. I can’t even.

16 Dr Lizardo  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:03:45pm

re: #12 aagcobb

“If minorities support Democrats at levels close to how they backed President Obama, that helps erase the advantage Republicans have going into the election.”

That’s the problem, they won’t. Lots of Democrats simply don’t turn out to vote in mid-terms. I keep hoping that many of them will come to realize that if they don’t send people to Congress to work with the President it ties his hands, but most people are too busy living their lives and trying to get by day-to-day to pay much attention to politics most of the time.

It’s all about GOTV. If the Democrats can successfully mobilize their voters, they just might pull it off. I’m not saying it’s easy, but if the Democrats can aggressively mount a get-out-the-vote campaign, they could alter the balance of power.

17 Charles Johnson  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:04:20pm

Uh oh. Even Wikileaks is starting to bag on the Guardian:

18 ProTARDISLiberal  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:04:25pm

re: #13 wrenchwench

oh look, a Dudebro with the hat from Pokemon.

19 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:04:32pm

re: #12 aagcobb

“If minorities support Democrats at levels close to how they backed President Obama, that helps erase the advantage Republicans have going into the election.”

That’s the problem, they won’t. Lots of Democrats simply don’t turn out to vote in mid-terms. I keep hoping that many of them will come to realize that if they don’t send people to Congress to work with the President it ties his hands, but most people are too busy living their lives and trying to get by day-to-day to pay much attention to politics most of the time.

What a coincidence that this is so very convenient for the ruling class. //dripping

20 darthstar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:04:50pm

If Democrats run ON Obamacare, they can take the house back and hold the Senate. The question is, do they have the intestinal fortitude to do it?

21 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:05:51pm

re: #17 Charles Johnson

Uh oh. Even Wikileaks is starting to bag on the Guardian:

Why did the Guardian cover up their distruction

Did they start out typing distraction and get, um, distracted?

22 erik_t  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:06:04pm

re: #17 Charles Johnson

Uh oh. Even Wikileaks is starting to bag on the Guardian:

What, you mean you can’t trust Anon-lite to carry your water through thick and thin when they see a few drops of blood?

/^inf

23 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:06:11pm

re: #17 Charles Johnson

Uh oh. Even Wikileaks is starting to bag on the Guardian:

[Embedded content]

Are they trying to say destruction or distraction?

24 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:06:43pm

re: #20 darthstar

If Democrats run ON Obamacare, they can take the house back and hold the Senate. The question is, do they have the intestinal fortitude to do it?

I agree that this is a good strategy, but taking back the House is still a big stretch.

25 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:07:42pm

re: #21 Vicious Babushka

Did they start out typing distraction and get, um, distracted?

Someone yelled SQUIRREL!

26 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:09:03pm

re: #24 EPR-radar

I agree that this is a good strategy, but taking back the House is still a big stretch.

First you hold the line, then you push back.

27 Charles Johnson  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:10:10pm

Here we go again.

28 Charles Johnson  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:10:37pm

“Thousands” over 3 years.

Man, that sounds really really really bad.

29 Targetpractice  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:10:48pm

re: #27 Charles Johnson

Here we go again.

[Embedded content]

*facepalm*

30 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:12:05pm

re: #28 Charles Johnson

“Thousands” over 3 years.

Man, that sounds really really really bad.

My god, that might account for .00001% of all the traffic for those 3 years!

31 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:13:48pm

re: #28 Charles Johnson

“Thousands” over 3 years.

Man, that sounds really really really bad.

[moonbat] That’s 2 a day or more. THE HORROR!! [/moonbat]

32 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:14:32pm

re: #24 EPR-radar

I agree that this is a good strategy, but taking back the House is still a big stretch.

But running down the GOP majority to a much smaller number puts a lot of pressure on them to compromise.

33 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:15:33pm

re: #20 darthstar

If Democrats run ON Obamacare, they can take the house back and hold the Senate. The question is, do they have the intestinal fortitude to do it?

They can’t run from it so they ought to embrace it. Tens of millions of Americans will have obtained healthcare coverage via Obamacare by November next year, and millions more will have no health care coverage due to Republicans’ refusal to expand Medicaid. The Democrats should hammer at what the former stand to lose if Republicans win and the latter could gain if Democrats win.

34 Lidane  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:16:33pm
35 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:17:08pm

Working in IT, when an incident is going on, analysts collect tons of data from any possible source that might be connected to the case. As analysis progresses, you quickly discard a great deal of that data as you isolate the actual problem from the background noise of uninvolved processes operating normally.

That the NSA collected unrelated data in the course of investigations is not earth shattering news.

36 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:17:12pm

re: #32 Feline Fearless Leader

But running down the GOP majority to a much smaller number puts a lot of pressure on them to compromise.

Not really. The Republicans still in Congress will be in safe districts in which they only fear a primary challenge from even more extreme Republicans.

37 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:17:12pm

re: #32 Feline Fearless Leader

But running down the GOP majority to a much smaller number puts a lot of pressure on them to compromise.

GOTV, running on Obamacare etc. are absolutely a good thing to do. I just don’t want to see unrealistic expectations get too much traction.

The electorate of 2014 is going to be more friendly to the GOP than the electorate of 2012, unless something truly out of the ordinary occurs.

38 Targetpractice  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:17:35pm

Billions of telecommunications in any given day, but “thousands” over 3 years is significant?

39 Sol Berdinowitz  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:17:40pm

re: #34 Lidane

There go his chances of getting the GOP presidential nomination in 2016

40 Vicious Babushka  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:18:58pm

re: #28 Charles Johnson

“Thousands” over 3 years.

Man, that sounds really really really bad.

How many were SPAM and pr0n?

41 Carlos Danger  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:19:07pm

We live in a country where people spaz out about $thousands!! being spent on basic services, so outrage-o-rama, I guess.

42 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:19:11pm

re: #34 Lidane

Rick Perry Would Like Some Obamacare Money Now, Please

Rick Perry will look up and shout “SAVE US” and I’ll whisper “No”.

43 lawhawk  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:20:14pm

re: #27 Charles Johnson

Here we go again.

[Embedded content]

With no context to explain what that actually means.

Can’t wait to see what they mean by US communications.

Does that include those previously identified as foreign targets in the US (70% of the nearly 3,000 previously identified incidents).

Is this some new analysis or rehashing of old stuff.

I’m on the edge of my seat as I learn that the NSA was checking communications online. If they really wanted my recipe for Za’atar crusted chicken, all they had to do was ask.

44 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:20:31pm

re: #39 Sol Berdinowitz

There go his chances of getting the GOP presidential nomination in 2016

Not really. Indulgences for sins against RW dogma can be procured by kissing the right so-con asses and providing $$$.

45 Justanotherhuman  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:20:33pm

re: #27 Charles Johnson

Here we go again.

[Embedded content]

Yes, that’s the story the WSJ was flogging yesterday.

As to NC, McCrory has a 39% approval rating and he’s only been in office less than a year. When the Rs start bragging in their districts (many of them poor with high unemployment) about what they’ve “accomplished”, they’ll be shit-canned, if not for a Dem, at least for a more stable, reasonable R than the ‘baggers they elected last year.

We’ve actually been a more moderate state, esp in the latter part of the last century and until the last election. We are the southern state that helped put Pres Obama over the top in 2008.

46 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:20:35pm

re: #42 Kragar

Rick Perry will look up and shout “SAVE US” and I’ll whisper “No”.

Upding for Watchmen quote.

47 Gus  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:20:37pm
48 A Mom Anon  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:21:02pm

re: #10 lawhawk

If you have ridiculously expensive insurance through your employer can you dump it and go via the exchanges? Our insurance is about to be around 20-25 percent of our income via the employer plan.(new employer, new insurance, and god help me this company sucks. Put the husband on salary and they’re working him over 70 hours a week and paying him for 40) I think it’s going to kill us financially. I hope I’m wrong but the whole thing is unclear and the HR people at my husband’s job are not at all helpful. I do know we meet the income requirements for subsidies, but beyond that I have no earthly idea WTF.

Of course I’m in GA, and our idiot Governor and Insurance Commissioner are doing everything they can to fuck over Georgians anyhow, so we may just be screwed no matter what. I’ve read a lot about this but I still don’t understand it all and I wish I knew someone who does who could explain it so I can.

49 Justanotherhuman  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:23:11pm

re: #48 A Mom Anon

See if you can find the answer here: dol.gov

50 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:25:00pm

re: #48 A Mom Anon

Hope this helps.

51 Targetpractice  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:25:06pm

re: #47 Gus

[Embedded content]

So the NSA admits to picking up thousands of emails accidentally and agrees to court order to find ways to avoid repeating the mistake. Shocker.

52 ProTARDISLiberal  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:25:07pm

I want to test this.

I’ll get a hammer.

53 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:26:20pm

re: #52 ProTARDISLiberal

I want to test this.

I’ll get a hammer.

Eh, I’ve built up a tolerance over the years.

54 Lidane  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:26:22pm

Cue the RWNJ ‘splodey:

55 erik_t  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:28:28pm

re: #51 Targetpractice

So the NSA admits to picking up thousands of emails accidentally and agrees to court order to find ways to avoid repeating the mistake. Shocker.

JUST LIKE THE GESTAPO DID

56 Carlos Danger  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:28:36pm

BTW, Ron Paul is having a Reddit AMA tomorrow, maybe someone can ask him why he’s going to be addressing a bunch of anti-semitic racists in Canada

57 lawhawk  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:29:22pm

re: #38 Targetpractice

Facebook has billions of interactions in a day. That’s just one website.

Amazon? Ebay? Google? Billions more.

Context is everything, and 3,000 sounds like a huge number, right up to the moment when you start looking at the billions of interactions and communications initiated by people on a daily basis.

144 billion - Total email traffic per day worldwide.

58 Carlos Danger  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:30:30pm

re: #57 lawhawk

Thousands! Hundreds! Perhaps even dozens!!

59 Justanotherhuman  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:30:34pm

Fuckers.

UPS cuts insurance to 15,000 spouses, blames Obamacare

money.cnn.com

Unions are good! So—the cuts will more than likely be in states with right-to-work laws and where unions haven’t established a foothold—yet.

“The internal document was obtained by Kaiser Health News. UPS told the nonprofit news agency that the policy applies only to non-union U.S. workers and will save about $60 million a year. UPS has not yet responded to questions from CNNMoney.”

60 lawhawk  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:30:50pm

re: #52 ProTARDISLiberal

Mythbusters has found this to be confirmed.

61 Targetpractice  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:31:43pm

Shit, look at the numbers. Something on the order of 168,000 emails accidentally grabbed in the net over 3 years, out of billions sent in the same time period. You’re not even talking 1/10th of 1%.

Quick, someone fetch me my pearls!

62 Internet Tough Guy  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:32:18pm

re: #51 Targetpractice

So the NSA admits to picking up thousands of emails accidentally and agrees to court order to find ways to avoid repeating the mistake. Shocker.

JUST WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FROM A POLICE STATE

63 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:32:34pm

re: #59 Justanotherhuman

Fuckers.

UPS cuts insurance to 15,000 spouses, blames Obamacare

money.cnn.com

Unions are good! So—the cuts will more than likely be in states with right-to-work laws and where unions haven’t established a foothold—yet.

“The internal document was obtained by Kaiser Health News. UPS told the nonprofit news agency that the policy applies only to non-union U.S. workers and will save about $60 million a year. UPS has not yet responded to questions from CNNMoney.”

They keep saying to blame Obamacare, but for some reason, my first instinct is to blame the cocksuckers who are fucking over their workers.

64 Targetpractice  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:33:19pm

re: #63 Kragar

They keep saying to blame Obamacare, but for some reason, my first instinct is to blame the cocksuckers who are fucking over their workers.

Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?

65 ProTARDISLiberal  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:33:35pm

re: #60 lawhawk

Oh, I know.

Upon hearing of my plans, family put the kibosh on the hammer plan.

66 wrenchwench  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:34:13pm

AMNESTY!!1!!!!


OK, maybe not.

67 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:34:55pm

re: #59 Justanotherhuman

Fuckers.

UPS cuts insurance to 15,000 spouses, blames Obamacare

money.cnn.com

Unions are good! So—the cuts will more than likely be in states with right-to-work laws and where unions haven’t established a foothold—yet.

“The internal document was obtained by Kaiser Health News. UPS told the nonprofit news agency that the policy applies only to non-union U.S. workers and will save about $60 million a year. UPS has not yet responded to questions from CNNMoney.”

Its not as big a deal as the Right will make it out to be, because its only cutting off spouses who can get insurance through their own employer.

68 Eventual Carrion  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:35:09pm

re: #28 Charles Johnson

“Thousands” over 3 years.

Man, that sounds really really really bad.

Yeah, that’s like 22 seconds of traffic for a single borough of NYC over a 3 year period.

69 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:36:06pm

re: #67 aagcobb

Its not as big a deal as the Right will make it out to be, because its only cutting off spouses who can get insurance through their own employer.

Another argument for disconnecting health coverage from employment status.

70 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:36:49pm

re: #65 ProTARDISLiberal

Oh, I know.

Upon hearing of my plans, family put the kibosh on the hammer plan.

Did they say “Please Hammer, don’t hurt ‘em”?

71 A Mom Anon  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:37:20pm

re: #50 aagcobb

OK, that does help. Thank you. Basically we just have to wait and see. I already had to buy a separate policy for our 19 yr old because it was close to 300 a month just for him. The Husband’s policy is cheap for just him, around 100 bucks. To add me to it brings it up to over 500,almost 600. All of us together is over 800 a month, which ends up being over one week’s pay after taxes. That’s crazy. I was hoping I could opt out and we could find something for both me and the Kid that would be somehow subsidized and maybe even better. We’ll just have to limp along for a few months and see what happens.

I wish this administration had gone on the offensive early with all this and spent some time and money countering the complete and blatant lies the GOP is spreading about the ACA. There really should have been no opting out or any of that shit either.

72 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:37:52pm

re: #68 Eventual Carrion

Yeah, that’s like 22 seconds of traffic for a single borough of NYC over a 3 year period.

It will take you longer to read this post than for that amount of traffic to be generated on Facebook.

73 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:38:06pm

re: #68 Eventual Carrion

Yeah, that’s like 22 seconds of traffic for a single borough of NYC over a 3 year period.

I’m pretty sure there are people paranoid enough to think that every email and text they send and phone call they make is being read or listened to by the government. The entire country would have to be employed to listen to and read each others communications to do that.

74 Bubblehead II  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:38:23pm

re: #59 Justanotherhuman

re: #63 Kragar

It’s not exactly how you are making it out to be. All UPS is doing is requiring an employees Spouse to purchase Insurance from the Company they work for if it is offered.

“We believe your spouse should be covered by their own employer — just as UPS has a responsibility to offer coverage to you, our employee,” the memo states.

If they are unemployed or their company doesn’t offer insurance, they can still be covered under the UPS policy.

In the case of UPS, the husbands and wives of employees who don’t work — or who are not offered coverage by their own employer — will get to stay on the UPS plan.

75 dog philosopher  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:39:38pm

Republicans Are Beginning To Worry They Could Lose The

Philosophy of Dogs sez we could never be so lucky

76 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:40:01pm

re: #69 Feline Fearless Leader

Another argument for disconnecting health coverage from employment status.

Just extend Medicare to everyone. Bang! All problems solved.

77 Justanotherhuman  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:41:25pm

re: #71 A Mom Anon

Some of those clauses were “negotiated” with the Rs in order to get the thing passed at all. A lot of things were eliminated or “shaved” to get an Act that was palatable to them in some form.

78 dog philosopher  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:41:26pm

GOP DELENDA EST

& sue their fields with salzmans

79 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:41:50pm

re: #74 Bubblehead II

I thought they were cutting them off entirely. I still disagree with it. What if the spouses company offers inferior care to the UPS plan? Shouldn’t the workers have some say in which plan they want to use?

80 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:42:08pm

re: #71 A Mom Anon

Glad I could help. Good luck.

81 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:42:41pm

re: #76 aagcobb

Just extend Medicare to everyone. Bang! All problems solved.

Not solved, of course. But it would simplify or streamline a lot of things. Also allow for a lot of increased efficiency from standardization and even economics of scale.

82 Gus  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:43:49pm

…how it revealed the error to the court and changed how it gathered Internet communications.

83 dog philosopher  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:44:03pm

51% of the aggregate house vote went democratic in 2012 and the assholes still have a wide majority in the house

they could be discovered w all the dead girls and live boys in des moines and they would still have plenty of morons left over to vote them back in

84 aagcobb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:44:39pm

re: #79 Kragar

I thought they were cutting them off entirely. I still disagree with it. What if the spouses company offers inferior care to the UPS plan? Shouldn’t the workers have some say in which plan they want to use?

If they had a union, they could bargain for that. A lot of our problems with the growing disparity between capital and labor has been the disappearance of private sector unions. I would support a national law prohibiting “right-to-work” legislation, and steps to make it easier for workers to unionize.

85 Bubblehead II  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:44:51pm

re: #79 Kragar

I thought they were cutting them off entirely. I still disagree with it. What if the spouses company offers inferior care to the UPS plan? Shouldn’t the workers have some say in which plan they want to use?

Oh, I agree it sucks as all plans are not equal and as FFL points out in #69 this is why health insurance should be disconnected from employment status.

86 Justanotherhuman  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:45:04pm

re: #74 Bubblehead II

But the unionized employees were able to negotiate this benefit for families into their contracts.

And it puts the working spouse into the position of having to sift through programs to find one that comes close to matching what UPS has (her/his employer may not have the same plan benefits and they may not want that).

87 Feline Fearless Leader  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:46:29pm

re: #86 Justanotherhuman

But the unionized employees were able to negotiate this benefit for families into their contracts.

And it puts the working spouse into the position of having to sift through programs to find one that comes close to matching what UPS has (her/his employer may not have the same plan benefits and they may not want that).

And if they have children how soon until both companies points at the other company and says, “They should be covering the child, not us.”

88 Kragar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:46:34pm

Oh, we have numbers now:

NSA Collected U.S. Internet Communication With No Terror Connection

The nations’ top intelligence official is declassifying three secret U.S. court opinions showing how the National Security Agency scooped up as many as 56,000 emails annually over three years and other communications by Americans with no connection to terrorism, how it revealed the error to the court and changed how it gathered Internet communications.

56,000.

Did You Know 144.8 Billion Emails Are Sent Every Day?

89 Lidane  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:46:51pm

re: #51 Targetpractice

So the NSA admits to picking up thousands of emails accidentally and agrees to court order to find ways to avoid repeating the mistake. Shocker.

False flag! Reichstag fire! Eleventy!

90 Shockingly, Pathetically Low  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:48:18pm

re: #71 A Mom Anon

OK, that does help. Thank you. Basically we just have to wait and see. I already had to buy a separate policy for our 19 yr old because it was close to 300 a month just for him. The Husband’s policy is cheap for just him, around 100 bucks. To add me to it brings it up to over 500,almost 600. All of us together is over 800 a month, which ends up being over one week’s pay after taxes. That’s crazy. I was hoping I could opt out and we could find something for both me and the Kid that would be somehow subsidized and maybe even better. We’ll just have to limp along for a few months and see what happens.

I wish this administration had gone on the offensive early with all this and spent some time and money countering the complete and blatant lies the GOP is spreading about the ACA. There really should have been no opting out or any of that shit either.

Here’s another source of possible answers:

npr.org

They’re also taking questions.

91 lawhawk  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:49:44pm

re: #74 Bubblehead II

A lot of companies are moving to that position. Some even impose a “penalty” for putting spouses on their company insurance if they can get it through their own employer.

92 Backwoods_Sleuth  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:50:07pm

re: #15 Vicious Babushka

What is this. I can’t even.

[Embedded content]

tapeworm…

93 lawhawk  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 12:56:28pm

re: #88 Kragar

They didn’t require math in law school. /

Actually they did require math, especially if you’re trying to calculate settlements and here’s what the math indicates.

You’ve got 144.8 billion emails per day. That’s 52.852 trillion emails each year.

56,000 emails improperly gathered over 3 years. That’s 18,666 emails per year. 52 per day (rounded up).

Simple division - and that’s an astounding number that ends up giving calculators a headache because it’s that small an error rate.

94 Decatur Deb  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 1:08:46pm

re: #93 lawhawk

They didn’t require math in law school. /

Actually they did require math, especially if you’re trying to calculate settlements and here’s what the math indicates.

You’ve got 144.8 billion emails per day. That’s 52.852 trillion emails each year.

56,000 emails improperly gathered over 3 years. That’s 18,666 emails per year. 52 per day (rounded up).

Simple division - and that’s an astounding number that ends up giving calculators a headache because it’s that small an error rate.

Or roughly the rate collected during leap second.

95 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 1:13:53pm

re: #5 celticdragon

I am still trying to figure out how they managed to present themselves as fiscally responsible after the reign of Bush The Lesser.

Liberal news media my ass. The spending binge should have been shoved in the faces of American voters for months on end.

If the GOP really were fiscal conservatives, they would have undone the Bush tax cuts in order to help pay for the Iraq boondoggle.

Instead, the wars were deliberately put on the credit card to create budget problems whose only solution (of course) is to kill off all domestic non-military spending.

I could not possibly care less what GOP flacks have to say on the subject of fiscal conservatism —- they have no credibility at all on the subject.

96 122 Year Old Obama  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 5:20:25pm
Minus: 1
Dark_Falcon

My surprise, let me show you it.

97 EPR-radar  Wed, Aug 21, 2013 5:25:49pm

re: #96 122 Year Old Obama

Minus: 1
Dark_Falcon

My surprise, let me show you it.

WTF. If the article is going to be down-dinged, at least make an argument against one or more of the points it makes.

Passive-aggressively down dinging stuff like this hurts the Republican brand more than it helps, since it comes across as denying reality because no counter arguments are available.


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