Debunking Another Fear-Mongering Right Wing Myth About Ebola: The “42 Day Incubation Period”

They’re lying again
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Here we go again with the relentless fear-mongering about Ebola.

The latest meme being circulated by right wingers and conspiracy theorists (two groups that have considerable overlap) is that Ebola actually has an incubation period of 42 days, not 21 as has been reported. SHOCK NEWS! SCIENTISTS ARE LYING TO US!

This claim is all over the loonball sites today; here’s a Google search to show you what I mean: Ebola 42 Days Incubation. You’ll see all the usual suspects in there; World Net Daily, Natural News, Infowars, Fox News, Breitbart, etc.

To back up these overheated claims, they’re all citing this article at the World Health Organization site: WHO | Are the Ebola Outbreaks in Nigeria and Senegal Over?

The “42 days” meme is apparently drawn from this opening paragraph:

If the active surveillance for new cases that is currently in place continues, and no new cases are detected, WHO will declare the end of the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Senegal on Friday 17 October. Likewise, Nigeria is expected to have passed through the requisite 42 days, with active surveillance for new cases in place and none detected, on Monday 20 October.

Notice that this does not say anything about an “incubation period,” and there’s a reason: because this is the time period the WHO uses to determine with full confidence whether an outbreak is officially over in an entire country.

Here’s the part all these crazy fear-mongering sites don’t mention:

The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease and is considered by WHO as sufficient to generate confidence in a declaration that an Ebola outbreak has ended.

It couldn’t be any clearer — this WHO report actually says explicitly that “42 days” is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola. The number is derived from any potential contact’s 21 days plus any of those contact’s contacts’ 21 days.

Once again, the right wing sites are deliberately distorting the words of the WHO in order to cause panic about Ebola.

Meanwhile, today the WHO announced that, as expected, Nigeria Is Now Free of Ebola Virus Transmission. And the Ebola outbreak in Senegal was declared finished three days ago.

Jump to bottom

346 comments
1 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 11:07:13am

These guys can’t even count to 21 unless they take off their shoes and trousers. (quoted from Joan Rivers)

2 Targetpractice  Oct 20, 2014 11:07:23am

The contempt of science on display yet again.

3 Testy Toad T  Oct 20, 2014 11:08:45am

We all know that 42 is the answer. But what is the question?

4 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 11:09:44am
The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease

I was told there would be no math.

5 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 11:10:09am

re: #3 Testy Toad T

Vogon poetry. Of course.

6 Feline Fearless Leader  Oct 20, 2014 11:10:10am

re: #3 Testy Toad T

We all know that 42 is the answer. But what is the question?

How many versions of RomneyBot will there need to be until there is a shred of empathy shown?
///

7 NJDhockeyfan  Oct 20, 2014 11:11:08am

re: #3 Testy Toad T

We all know that 42 is the answer. But what is the question?

What number did Jackie Robinson wear?

8 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 11:11:09am

“Quick! Our every prediction has failed utterly! Come up with some more bullshit so we can keep this nonsense up thru the midterms!”

9 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 11:11:38am

It has to be either way way worse than they are admitting and we’re all gonna die, or the entire thing is a hoax, there is no disease, yet we’re all gonna die anyway, for some other reason. In any case. the time to freak out is now.

Youtube Video

10 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 11:11:39am

re: #6 Feline Fearless Leader

How many versions of RomneyBot will there need to be until there is a shred of empathy shown?
///

How long will even a defective Romneybot still be the most promising candidate on the GOP roster?

11 Targetpractice  Oct 20, 2014 11:12:26am

re: #3 Testy Toad T

We all know that 42 is the answer. But what is the question?

What is 6 x 9 in base 13?

12 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 11:15:02am
13 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 11:15:03am
14 Dr Lizardo  Oct 20, 2014 11:15:07am

re: #10 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)

How long will even a defective Romneybot still be the most promising candidate on the GOP roster?

You know, I just remembered I had a Maskatron Romneybot toy when I was a kid.

Romneybot beta version

15 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 11:15:31am

re: #3 Testy Toad T

We all know that 42 is the answer. But what is the question?

I don’t care.
I have a towel.

16 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 11:15:47am

Of course the right wing has to try and make hay of the 21 incubation period, because their hysterical claims and hyperbole about Ebola in the US would fall apart if the reality is that the outbreak ended with 1 imported case (Duncan) and two direct contact cases (the two nurses from Dallas Presbyterian).

It highlights that pretty much every claim the right wing has stated about Ebola has been wrong.

It’s not airborne.
It’s pretty well established that it’s impossible to get unless you’ve gotten direct contact with someone who has Ebola.
Travel bans re: Ebola aren’t based on any actual health policy and addresses fear and hysteria (and a whole lot of xenophobia and racism).

And on and on.

The are selling fear and loathing (of Ebola and Obama) as a way to win in November, and the media misinformation and panic/hysteria has all worked against the Administration, even though they actually have been on this all along and GOPers were behind holding back aid to Africa where the aid would actually help slow the spread of the disease.

They, including Ted Cruz, want the money spent here, even though we’ve got the disease under control here. It goes to the right wing’s anti-science and amoral policy choices.

17 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 11:16:01am

re: #7 NJDhockeyfan

What number did Jackie Robinson wear?

Mariano Rivera’s number of course. /

18 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 11:16:52am
19 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 11:16:56am

Yes it is possible to be a total racist and yet have a (subordinate) partner who is another race.
Exhibit A: Chuck C Johnson
Exhibit B: Greg Abbott

20 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 11:17:15am

re: #3 Testy Toad T

We all know that 42 is the answer. But what is the question?

On what street are
Little nifties from the fifties
Innocent and sweet
Sexy ladies from the eighties
Who are indiscreet?

21 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 11:17:30am

re: #12 Charles Johnson

22 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 11:17:30am

re: #16 Vogon Poetry

…GOPers were behind holding back aid to Africa where the aid would actually help slow the spread of the disease.

They, including Ted Cruz, want the money spent here, even though we’ve got the disease under control here. It goes to the right wing’s anti-science and amoral policy choices.

it would involve giving free stuff to dark-skinned people and the GOP stands for the kind of government that does not countenance such a thing

23 The Fourth Football of the Apocalypse (Bulworth)  Oct 20, 2014 11:17:57am

re:
#4

I was told there would be no math.

42-21=911 which equals BEnghaZI!!!!!!!

24 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 11:18:04am

re: #19 Vicious Piebola

Yes it is possible to be a total racist and yet have a (subordinate) partner who is another race.
Exhibit A: Chuck C Johnson
Exhibit B: Greg Abbott

[Embedded content]

25 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 11:18:18am

re: #15 Backwoods_Sleuth

I don’t care.
I have a towel.

26 Dr. Matt  Oct 20, 2014 11:18:24am
Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.

Read more at: who.int

End of the non-story.

27 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 11:19:50am

re: #25 Lidane

28 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 11:22:05am

Texas GOPer Greg Abbott won’t say if he’d defend interracial marriage ban
Pressed to give a direct answer, the gubernatorial candidate ducks the question

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, the GOP nominee for governor against Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis, refused to answer whether he’d defend an interracial marriage ban in court if Texas still had one on the books.

In an interview with San Antonio Express-News editorial board, flagged by Talking Points Memo, Abbott, who is married to a Latina, objected to answering the “hypothetical” question.

29 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 11:22:25am

re: #27 Backwoods_Sleuth

Not that anyone cares what I say, but the restaurant is at the other end of the Universe.

30 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 11:22:26am
31 Dead Tired  Oct 20, 2014 11:23:39am

This is the portion of the WHO release that has them going off the rails.

Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval. WHO is therefore confident that detection of no new cases, with active surveillance in place, throughout this 42-day period means that an Ebola outbreak is indeed over.

That quote implies there are 5% of cases in the studies that go over the 21 day incubation period 40% of which (2% of total) go over the 42 day period. The WHO specifies they use 21 days as the incubation period when active surveillance is in place and have full confidence with a 42 day time period. They seem to say there is a confidence level change with the use of active surveillance.

I can’t find the studies mentioned, but I’m starting to think this may be a statistical miscommunication.

32 Dead Tired  Oct 20, 2014 11:25:43am

re: #15 Backwoods_Sleuth

I don’t care.
I have a towel.

CLEAN UP IN AISLE 42!!!

33 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 11:25:46am

Rep. Paul Broun (R-Ga.) uses Ebola for fundraising pitch

“…The email, marked by two black blocks with bright red lettering, is titled “Stop Ebola from reaching you.” Its appeal continues, “If you can … please chip in $5 or $10 to the Conservative Action Fund to help us distribute this petition to literally millions of American citizens.”

34 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 11:26:25am

re: #9 wrenchwitch

It has to be either way way worse than they are admitting and we’re all gonna die, or the entire thing is a hoax, there is no disease, yet we’re all gonna die anyway, for some other reason. In any case. the time to freak out is now.

[Embedded content]

Unbelievable. A lot of people just can’t bring themselves to admit they were wrong.

35 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator  Oct 20, 2014 11:27:06am

I’ve got 42 problems but Ebola ain’t one.

36 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 11:29:18am

re: #29 Lidane

Not that anyone cares what I say, but the restaurant is at the other end of the Universe.

Road trip!!!!

37 Dr Lizardo  Oct 20, 2014 11:29:24am

re: #34 makeitstop

Unbelievable. A lot of people just can’t bring themselves to admit they were wrong.

If they admitted they were wrong, their entire worldview and that all that goes with it would simply collapse.

Refusing to admit they were in error - about anything - is simply a form of ego defense mechanism. Sort of like in that book, When Prophecies Fail.

38 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 11:30:57am

re: #37 Dr Lizardo

If they admitted they were wrong, their entire worldview and that all that goes with it would simply collapse.

Refusing to admit they were in error - about anything - is simply a form of ego defense mechanism. Sort of like in that book, When Prophecies Fail.

There must be a national catastrophe on President Obama’s watch.
There. Must. Be.

39 Shazam  Oct 20, 2014 11:32:38am

nytimes.com

The hemorrhagic virus had a latency period of about 10 days after exposure, Dr. Duncan and Dr. Scott calculate, followed by a 22-day infectious period, during which victims could spread the disease but had no symptoms, and a final 5-day period of symptoms.

The 37-day course of the disease is around four weeks longer than that of bubonic plague and corresponds almost exactly with the 40-day quarantine period that officials in Italy established during the Black Death, the authors add.

That’s why. The article is about how an Ebola-like virus could have been the cause of the Black Death, but Ebola has similar qualities. There’s a really long period where you’re infected but not contagious, then contagious but not symptomatic, and finally symptomatic before you’re either dead or recovering.

40 iossarian  Oct 20, 2014 11:33:22am

re: #38 Decatur Deb

There have been so many national catastrophes in the past 6 years, I’ve lost count. It’s a miracle that America still exists, to say nothing of my continued ability to purchase donuts from a boutique coffee shop every morning.

You’d have thought we’d be reduced to packs of mutant jetsam roaming the irradiated badlands by now.

41 Dr Lizardo  Oct 20, 2014 11:33:43am

re: #38 Decatur Deb

There must be a national catastrophe on President Obama’s watch.
There. Must. Be.

Not to mention that more than a few are most likely deeply hoping for some apocalyptic disaster to take place.

Like Michael Cain said, “Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

42 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 11:34:12am

re: #40 iossarian

There have been so many national catastrophes in the past 6 years, I’ve lost count. It’s a miracle that America still exists, to say nothing of my continued ability to purchase donuts from a boutique coffee shop every morning.

You’d have thought we’d be reduced to packs of mutant jetsam roaming the irradiated badlands by now.

You haven’t met my neighbors?

43 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 11:34:57am

re: #41 Dr Lizardo

Not to mention that more than a few are most likely deeply hoping for some apocalyptic disaster to take place.

Like Michael Cain said, “Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

How the hell else can you get the kids to eat those MREs?

44 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 11:37:09am

re: #42 Decatur Deb

You haven’t met my neighbors?

We have the same neighbors???

45 Testy Toad T  Oct 20, 2014 11:37:23am

re: #43 Decatur Deb

How the hell else can you get the kids to eat those MREs?

Make them read the cheeky and fun instructions!

rockorsomething.jpg

46 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 11:38:43am

So, I decided to bleed from my ears today and listen to Rush while in the car. He mentioned how Klain, the new czar, was on vacation in a hot tub with his wife instead of going to the first two Ebola meetings. Was he referencing the pictures Chuck posted??

I just rolled my eyes, cleaned off the blood, and changed the channel. What a douche.

47 Feline Fearless Leader  Oct 20, 2014 11:41:56am

re: #46 Jenner7

So, I decided to bleed from my ears today and listen to Rush while in the car. He mentioned how Klain, the new czar, was on vacation in a hot tub with his wife instead of going to the first two Ebola meetings. Was he referencing the pictures Chuck posted??

I just rolled my eyes, cleaned off the blood, and changed the channel. What a douche.

A 42-day Derpbola quarantine period would be nice to see. No listening to Rush, O’Reilly, Hannity, etc. for over a month would probably brighten the nation’s mood considerably.
//

48 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 11:43:06am

re: #45 Testy Toad T

Make them read the cheeky and fun instructions!

rockorsomething.jpg

Put the heater in the bag, add a little water, duct tape it shut and toss!

49 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 11:43:56am

re: #45 Testy Toad T

Make them read the cheeky and fun instructions!

rockorsomething.jpg

Someone at Natick Labs was feeling whimsical.

50 Dr. Matt  Oct 20, 2014 11:43:57am
51 iossarian  Oct 20, 2014 11:47:35am

re: #50 Dr. Matt

Needs more guns.

Seriously, though, that’s awesome.

52 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 11:47:52am
53 Dead Tired  Oct 20, 2014 11:52:27am

re: #52 jaunte

[Embedded content]

They found a T-Rex on Mars?

Doesn’t that debunk evolution?

54 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 11:54:02am

MOAST INSANE TWEET OF THE DAY

55 RealityBasedEbola  Oct 20, 2014 11:56:34am

I had a ‘42 Ebola once. It was chopped and channeled, I had the lights frenched, louvers on the hood, and a sweet flathead Ford under the bonnet. Brakes were good, and the tires fair.

RBS

56 BeachDem  Oct 20, 2014 11:57:30am

re: #54 Vicious Piebola

MOAST INSANE TWEET OF THE DAY

[Embedded content]

The day is not yet over.

57 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 11:58:17am

re: #56 BeachDem

The day is not yet over.

Heh

58 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 11:58:38am

re: #53 Dead Tired

They found a T-Rex on Mars?

Doesn’t that debunk evolution?

Nope. Just requires revision of our opinion of saurian astronautics. And that’s the comet 67P out with Rosetta—even more impressive piloting for a lizard with such tiny arms.

59 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 11:59:09am

WTF LOOK AT THIS FUCKING TEA PARTY LOGO

60 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 12:00:05pm

re: #53 Dead Tired

They found a T-Rex on Mars?

Doesn’t that debunk evolution?

I think I see some jpeg artifacts around that T-Rex.

61 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 12:00:20pm

re: #40 iossarian

There have been so many national catastrophes in the past 6 years, I’ve lost count. It’s a miracle that America still exists, to say nothing of my continued ability to purchase donuts from a boutique coffee shop every morning.

You’d have thought we’d be reduced to packs of mutant jetsam roaming the irradiated badlands by now.

Now I wish I were at home playing Fallout rather than at work even more than is usual.

So yeah, thanks for that.

62 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:00:41pm
63 BeachDem  Oct 20, 2014 12:01:29pm

Forget Nostradamus—accolades to Nostra-Serling, who figured it out long ago:

The tools of conquest do not necessarily come with bombs and explosions and fallout. There are weapons that are simply thoughts, attitudes, prejudices to be found only in the minds of men. For the record, prejudices can kill, and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all of its own for the children, and the children yet unborn. And the pity of it is that these things cannot be confined to the Twilight Zone.

The Monsters have been due on Maple Street since March 4, 1960.

64 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 12:03:09pm

re: #60 jaunte

I think I see some jpeg artifacts around that T-Rex.

It looks shopped. I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few shops in my time.

65 Feline Fearless Leader  Oct 20, 2014 12:03:48pm

re: #63 BeachDem

Forget Nostradamus—accolades to Nostra-Serling, who figured it out long ago:

The tools of conquest do not necessarily come with bombs and explosions and fallout. There are weapons that are simply thoughts, attitudes, prejudices to be found only in the minds of men. For the record, prejudices can kill, and suspicion can destroy, and a thoughtless frightened search for a scapegoat has a fallout all of its own for the children, and the children yet unborn. And the pity of it is that these things cannot be confined to the Twilight Zone.

The Monsters have been due on Maple Street since March 4, 1960.

They’ve been due since the ancestor picked up that thighbone.
/

66 Dead Tired  Oct 20, 2014 12:03:53pm

re: #64 Charles Johnson

It looks shopped. I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few shops in my time.

How about the heat signatures?

67 BeachDem  Oct 20, 2014 12:04:07pm

re: #59 Vicious Piebola

WTF LOOK AT THIS FUCKING TEA PARTY LOGO

[Embedded content]

That COULD qualify for dumbest tweet of the day, except that it’s from October 3. Wonder how it went, and if they restored that dream that never was (or something…)

68 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 12:04:35pm

Plus, the T-Rex isn’t casting a shadow.
Unless it’s a vampire T-Rex.

69 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:05:02pm

re: #55 RealityBasedEbola

I had a ‘42 Ebola once. It was chopped and channeled, I had the lights frenched, louvers on the hood, and a sweet flathead Ford under the bonnet. Brakes were good, and the tires fair.

RBS

Please tell me it had flame paintwork on the fenders!

70 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 12:05:26pm

Vampire T-Rexes riding comets are the worst.

71 iossarian  Oct 20, 2014 12:05:40pm

re: #64 Charles Johnson

It looks shopped. I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few shops in my time.

There’s a dotted blue line around the t-rex, if you look real close.

72 Slap  Oct 20, 2014 12:05:55pm

re: #69 Backwoods_Sleuth

…not to mention fuzzy dice and bongos!

73 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 12:06:09pm

re: #68 jaunte

Plus, the T-Rex isn’t casting a shadow.
Unless it’s a vampire T-Rex.

They’re the worst kind!

74 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 12:06:20pm

re: #37 Dr Lizardo

If they admitted they were wrong, their entire worldview and that all that goes with it would simply collapse.

Refusing to admit they were in error - about anything - is simply a form of ego defense mechanism. Sort of like in that book, When Prophecies Fail.

From the Wiki article on that:

Festinger stated that five conditions must be present if someone is to become a more fervent believer after a failure or disconfirmation:

A belief must be held with deep conviction and it must have some relevance to action, that is, to what the believer does or how he or she behaves.
The person holding the belief must have committed himself to it; that is, for the sake of his belief, he must have taken some important action that is difficult to undo. In general, the more important such actions are, and the more difficult they are to undo, the greater is the individual’s commitment to the belief.
The belief must be sufficiently specific and sufficiently concerned with the real world so that events may unequivocally refute the belief.
Such undeniable disconfirmatory evidence must occur and must be recognized by the individual holding the belief.
The individual believer must have social support. It is unlikely that one isolated believer could withstand the kind of disconfirming evidence that has been specified. If, however, the believer is a member of a group of convinced persons who can support one another, the belief may be maintained and the believers may attempt to proselytize or persuade nonmembers that the belief is correct.

So, yeah, sounds about right.

75 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 12:06:28pm

Speaking of Ebola fearmongering, this happened:

facebook.com

Today National Report published a deliberately fake story claiming 17 Texas kindergarteners have been infected with ebola via a Liberian exchange student.

Naturally the fake story went viral and it’s currently filling millions of email boxes with fear and hysteria.

This is not humor. This is not funny.

This is arson.

And it should be treated as such.

76 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:07:18pm

Here are the beef, mushroom and Guinness pies I made this weekend.
(Keen eyes will spot some bits of bacon in there, as well…)

77 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 12:08:10pm

re: #75 Lidane

Speaking of Ebola fearmongering, this happened:

facebook.com

Those fuckers should be shut down. They contribute nothing, even by internet standards.

78 klys  Oct 20, 2014 12:08:37pm

re: #76 Backwoods_Sleuth

Here are the beef, mushroom and Guinness pies I made this weekend.
(Keen eyes will spot some bits of bacon in there, as well…)

[Embedded content]

I don’t see one on my table.

I has a sad.

(Ok, the sad is because I’m staring at this cover letter that’s not writing itself, but still.)

79 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 12:08:56pm

re: #76 Backwoods_Sleuth

Here are the beef, mushroom and Guinness pies I made this weekend.
(Keen eyes will spot some bits of bacon in there, as well…)

[Embedded content]

Tiny pie, or giant freaking fork?

80 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 12:09:21pm

The bad craziness we’re up against, the mind boggles.

My head is on fire!

81 Feline Fearless Leader  Oct 20, 2014 12:09:23pm

re: #76 Backwoods_Sleuth

Here are the beef, mushroom and Guinness pies I made this weekend.
(Keen eyes will spot some bits of bacon in there, as well…)

[Embedded content]

So was the beef and bacon cooked before being put in the pastry, or cooked inside the pastry itself?

82 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 12:10:08pm

re: #76 Backwoods_Sleuth

Here are the beef, mushroom and Guinness pies I made this weekend.
(Keen eyes will spot some bits of bacon in there, as well…)

But no kidneys?

83 Rightwingconspirator  Oct 20, 2014 12:12:44pm

re: #76 Backwoods_Sleuth

Here are the beef, mushroom and Guinness pies I made this weekend.
(Keen eyes will spot some bits of bacon in there, as well…)

[Embedded content]

Heh, lunchtime on the west coast. Now I’m really hungry.

84 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 12:13:41pm
85 Varek Raith  Oct 20, 2014 12:14:40pm

Gotta feed the 24/7 scare networks.

86 Rightwingconspirator  Oct 20, 2014 12:16:21pm

Geez who needs 24hr news on TV anyway? we can get all the news we want on demand from any smartphone tablet etc. It’s as redundant as a wristwatch, minus the style appeal.

87 BeenHereAwhile  Oct 20, 2014 12:17:20pm

re: #69 Backwoods_Sleuth

Please tell me it had flame paintwork on the fenders!

Fenders are pinstriped.

Flames on the hood.

88 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:17:39pm

HURR HURR HOW DARES YOU COMPARE TEH GHEY TO TEH CIVIL RIGHTS!!!! EVERYBODY KNOES TEH GHEY DON’T DESERVE NO CIVIL RITES!!!!!11!!

89 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:18:36pm

re: #78 klys

I don’t see one on my table.

I has a sad.

(Ok, the sad is because I’m staring at this cover letter that’s not writing itself, but still.)

Husband taste-tested the two batches of pickles. He’s says they have excellent flavor (one batch is somewhat on the non-crunchie side but he’s using them in pasta salads and on burgers) and gave me the go-ahead to pack them up to mail to you.

90 klys  Oct 20, 2014 12:19:03pm

re: #89 Backwoods_Sleuth

Husband taste-tested the two batches of pickles. He’s says they have excellent flavor (one batch is somewhat on the non-crunchie side but he’s using them in pasta salads and on burgers) and gave me the go-ahead to pack them up to mail to you.

HOORAY!

91 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 12:19:59pm

re: #83 Rightwingconspirator

Heh, lunchtime on the west coast. Now I’m really hungry.

I has giant burrito. The bag says, ‘1 R.B. w/Todo’. That’s roast beef with everything. It was dripping through the foil, four napkins and the paper bag by the time I walked the two blocks back to the shop from here:

92 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 12:20:22pm

As derpy as things are, I can count on seeing things like this to provide levity.

93 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:20:50pm

re: #79 wrenchwitch

Tiny pie, or giant freaking fork?

Made in 3.5-inch muffin pans.

94 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:21:36pm

re: #92 teleskiguy

As derpy as things are, I can count on seeing things like this to provide levity.

[Embedded content]

Their parents were probs nazis.

How’s that for levity?

95 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:22:02pm

re: #81 Feline Fearless Leader

So was the beef and bacon cooked before being put in the pastry, or cooked inside the pastry itself?

Filling was cooked separately.
Recipe here.

96 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:22:07pm

OOOH now I haz hurt feelings :(

97 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:22:28pm

re: #82 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)

But no kidneys?

No kidneys, but it could have!

98 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 12:22:54pm

re: #94 Vicious Piebola

Their parents were probs nazis.

How’s that for levity?

I like their crazy hair. But you’re most likely right. Now I have to find something else.

99 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 12:23:11pm
100 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 12:24:21pm
101 iossarian  Oct 20, 2014 12:25:35pm

If I were the head of an African country, the first thing I would do to combat an infectious disease outbreak would be to hire some juvenile ideologues to parachute in and start riling up the populace with thinly-veiled racist rhetoric and victim-blaming.

102 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:25:47pm

WHY DIDN’T THOSE UPPITY COLORED FOLKS GO TO ONE OF THERE OWN “WE SERVE COLOREDS HERE” LUNCH COUNTERS WHERE THEY COULD EAT THERE HOG GUTS & OTHER NEGRO FOODS!!!!!!!

103 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 12:26:24pm

re: #99 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Think CCJ is referring to the Talking Tweeting Drums.

Youtube Video

104 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 12:27:37pm
105 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:28:15pm

Meanwhile, aftermath at a DUI wreck in Virginia’s Shanandoah Valley right now:

106 CriticalDragon1177  Oct 20, 2014 12:28:56pm

Charles Johnson

It seems the wingnuts are determined to scare everyone into thinking we’re all about to die and than blame Obama.

Larry Klayman: ‘Ebola-Gate’ Shows That Obama Is As Racist As George Wallace
rightwingwatch.org

107 iossarian  Oct 20, 2014 12:30:05pm

re: #106 CriticalDragon1177

It seems the wingnuts are determined to scare everyone into thinking we’re all about to die and than blame Obama.

When you put it like that, it all becomes clear.

108 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 12:30:46pm
109 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:31:37pm

If I was getting gay-married I would never choose a place as tacky as “Hitchin’ Post Weddin’ Chapel”

110 EPR-radar  Oct 20, 2014 12:32:13pm

I’m getting really tired of this RWNJ shit. IMO, their fear mongering is an attempt to get the US to accept scapegoating as a solution to political problems.

In other words, proto-fascism.

111 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:32:46pm

heh…

112 yoshicastmaster  Oct 20, 2014 12:33:14pm

Agree with Dead Tired, the report is confusing:

“The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease…”

“Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.”

who.int

I don’t have much time to spend on this, but the second quote suggests that Ebola has an incubation between 21 and 42 days in 3% of confirmed cases, at least by a quick reading.

Anyone figure out what they’re trying to say? They didn’t say it very well, since the quotes seem contradictory.

113 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 12:33:41pm

re: #103 Decatur Deb

Think CCJ is referring to the Talking Tweeting Drums.

[Embedded content]

Just the right amount of cowbell.

114 De Kolta Chair  Oct 20, 2014 12:34:14pm

re: #96 Vicious Piebola

“Bystanders”?

115 Franklin  Oct 20, 2014 12:34:15pm

re: #64 Charles Johnson

It looks shopped. I can tell from some of the pixels and from seeing quite a few shops in my time.

Never not funny.

116 Testy Toad T  Oct 20, 2014 12:34:43pm

re: #108 Lidane

@douglasrivlin
Putting the common in lowest common denominator politics: Marco Rubio to introduce travel ban bill politi.co

As far back as the circuit court ruling in Corfield v. Coryell, 6 Fed. Cas. 546 (1823), the Supreme Court recognized freedom of movement as a fundamental Constitutional right. In Paul v. Virginia, 75 U.S. 168 (1869), the Court defined freedom of movement as “right of free ingress into other States, and egress from them.”[1] However, the Supreme Court did not invest the federal government with the authority to protect freedom of movement. Under the “privileges and immunities” clause, this authority was given to the states, a position the Court held consistently through the years in cases such as Ward v. Maryland, 79 U.S. 418 (1871), the Slaughter-House Cases, 83 U.S. 36 (1873) and United States v. Harris, 106 U.S. 629 (1883).[2][3]

DAMNED ACTIVIST JUDGES.

117 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 12:35:29pm

Here comes the next gun-fucker meme (Seen on Facebook)…

“FBI says no one killed at Sandy Hook: Agency publishes crime report that says 0 murders in Newtown in 2012”

Apparently there’s a doc on fbi.gov that says this.

For fuck’s sake…

118 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:35:47pm

But if you try to bring up her verified link, you get an error message…

119 CriticalDragon1177  Oct 20, 2014 12:38:33pm

By the way, guys if you come across anyone who recommends we should use homeopathy to fight ebola, or that you should sign a petition to get World Health Organization to consider it, show them this.

Homeopathy for Ebola: The Quackery That Knows No Limits
debunkingdenialism.com

120 Dr Lizardo  Oct 20, 2014 12:38:43pm

re: #117 makeitstop

Here comes the next gun-fucker meme (Seen on Facebook)…

“FBI says no one killed at Sandy Hook: Agency publishes crime report that says 0 murders in Newtown in 2012”

Apparently there’s a doc on fbi.gov that says this.

For fuck’s sake…

I can hear the CT’ists fapping all the way over here in Central Europe.

*headdesk*

121 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:40:28pm

Well I just found out that Express Scripts won’t fill my prescriptions anymore, I have to pick up the script from the dr office IN PERSON and take it to CVS IN PERSON and have them fill it (paying 3x what it cost from Express Script) because “War On Drugs”

122 Patricia Kayden  Oct 20, 2014 12:42:38pm

re: #38 Decatur Deb

There must be a national catastrophe on President Obama’s watch.
There. Must. Be.

Ebola ain’t it though. They’ll have to try harder.

123 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:43:40pm

re: #117 makeitstop

Here comes the next gun-fucker meme (Seen on Facebook)…

“FBI says no one killed at Sandy Hook: Agency publishes crime report that says 0 murders in Newtown in 2012”

Apparently there’s a doc on fbi.gov that says this.

For fuck’s sake…

Your link goes directly to the fbi.gov main page not to any doc on that site. Be aware the wingnuts also claim that the “Gun Violence Map” comes from FBI when it’s the 2004 election map.

124 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 12:44:27pm
125 Patricia Kayden  Oct 20, 2014 12:46:21pm

re: #106 CriticalDragon1177

Charles Johnson

It seems the wingnuts are determined to scare everyone into thinking we’re all about to die and than blame Obama.

Larry Klayman: ‘Ebola-Gate’ Shows That Obama Is As Racist As George Wallace
rightwingwatch.org

But unfortunately for the Rightwingers, there is no Ebola crisis here in the U.S.

Crazy fear mongering doesn’t change the fact that only one person has died of the disease here (and he contracted it in another continent). As the saying goes, facts have a liberal bias.

126 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:46:24pm

What a dumb shit:
The choice belongs to the consumer.

127 Dr. Matt  Oct 20, 2014 12:46:33pm

US agency warns car owners to get air bags fixed

DETROIT (AP) - A potential safety crisis over defective air bags widened Monday as the U.S. government issued an urgent plea to more than 4.7 million people to get their cars fixed.

“This message comes with urgency,” NHTSA said in a statement. The agency has been investigating the problem since June, and has cited reports of six inflators rupturing, causing three injuries.

The warning covers cars made by Toyota, Honda, Mazda, BMW, Nissan, General Motors and Ford. Passenger or driver air bags or both could be affected depending on the vehicle.

[…]

NHTSA urged people to check if their car has been recalled by going to vinrcl.safercar.gov typing in their vehicle identification number.

128 Timothy Watson  Oct 20, 2014 12:47:11pm

re: #117 makeitstop

Here comes the next gun-fucker meme (Seen on Facebook)…

“FBI says no one killed at Sandy Hook: Agency publishes crime report that says 0 murders in Newtown in 2012”

Apparently there’s a doc on fbi.gov that says this.

For fuck’s sake…

The FBI sometimes doesn’t include those type of incidents in the UCR numbers. For example, the 9/11 terrorist attacks aren’t included in NYC or Arlington County’s (VA) 2001 UCR numbers.

129 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 12:47:28pm
130 Patricia Kayden  Oct 20, 2014 12:47:55pm

re: #102 Vicious Piebola

WHY DIDN’T THOSE UPPITY COLORED FOLKS GO TO ONE OF THERE OWN “WE SERVE COLOREDS HERE” LUNCH COUNTERS WHERE THEY COULD EAT THERE HOG GUTS & OTHER NEGRO FOODS!!!!!!!

[Embedded content]

You do know that there are people who are asking that question and not in an ironic way, right?

131 RealityBasedEbola  Oct 20, 2014 12:48:29pm

re: #123 Vicious Piebola

Your link goes directly to the fbi.gov main page not to any doc on that site. Be aware the wingnuts also claim that the “Gun Violence Map” comes from FBI when it’s the 2004 election map.

Debunked… metabunk.org

Basically, the shooting are reported under “State Police / Misc” because of the jurisdiction that handled it. The full PDF does show and account for them.

RBS

132 Patricia Kayden  Oct 20, 2014 12:48:48pm

re: #100 Lidane

The shame is that Rand Paul is a doctor and should know better.

133 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 12:49:45pm

re: #123 Vicious Piebola

Your link goes directly to the fbi.gov main page not to any doc on that site. Be aware the wingnuts also claim that the “Gun Violence Map” comes from FBI when it’s the 2004 election map.

I clicked the link on the FB post, same thing. I don’t have the time nor the inclination to try and find what they’re alleging.

134 Mattand  Oct 20, 2014 12:50:08pm

re: #99 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Jesus God, did that ignorant piece of shit try to use stopping an epidemic as justification for doxxing someone?

135 Ian G.  Oct 20, 2014 12:50:21pm

re: #92 teleskiguy

And I thought my mom’s high school yearbook hair (she graduated right around 1964) was ridiculous….

136 klys  Oct 20, 2014 12:52:03pm

BREAKING: there is a mist-like substance coming from the sky!

(The world must be ending.)

137 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 12:52:43pm

re: #133 makeitstop

I clicked the link on the FB post, same thing. I don’t have the time nor the inclination to try and find what they’re alleging.

It could be a definitional issue, if the FBI counts the killings as something other than “murder” W/O an indictment. Is there a large “homicide” category?

138 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:52:46pm

re: #130 Patricia Kayden

You do know that there are people who are asking that question and not in an ironic way, right?

The same ones who think Hitchin’ Post Weddin’ Chapel shouldn’t have to service those icky gays.

139 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:53:23pm

re: #133 makeitstop

I clicked the link on the FB post, same thing. I don’t have the time nor the inclination to try and find what they’re alleging.

It will show up on #tcot I’m sure

140 Feline Fearless Leader  Oct 20, 2014 12:54:18pm

re: #129 Lidane

[Embedded content]

That’s why a bunch of us have very similar looking black cats. Instant alibi!
;)

141 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 12:55:08pm

Haven’t heard from Teh Pamz in a while

142 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 12:55:26pm

re: #131 RealityBasedEbola

Debunked… metabunk.org

Basically, the shooting are reported under “State Police / Misc” because of the jurisdiction that handled it. The full PDF does show and account for them.

RBS

Thanks, RBS!

143 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 12:56:04pm

re: #138 Vicious Piebola

The same ones who think Hitchin’ Post Weddin’ Chapel shouldn’t have to service those icky gays.

You might enjoy this smackdown:

144 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 12:57:08pm

re: #127 Dr. Matt

The “check your VIN” site is down, but I kinda suspect the airbags in my 98 Ford Ranger are defective since they didn’t deploy when MrBWS had a head on collision with a big deer a few years ago.

145 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 12:58:52pm

re: #141 Vicious Piebola

Haven’t heard from Teh Pamz in a while

[Embedded content]

From that tweeter’s profile:

I belong to The Lord Christ Jesus,bought with Blood.

Ew.

146 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 12:59:03pm

re: #117 makeitstop

Here comes the next gun-fucker meme (Seen on Facebook)…

“FBI says no one killed at Sandy Hook: Agency publishes crime report that says 0 murders in Newtown in 2012”

Apparently there’s a doc on fbi.gov that says this.

For fuck’s sake…

FAAAALLLLSSSEEE FLAAAAGGGG!

147 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 1:00:47pm

re: #145 wrenchwitch

From that tweeter’s profile:

Ew.

The most awful ones always have “Jesus” in their profile.

Jesus doesn’t want to be in their profile.

148 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 1:02:07pm

re: #145 wrenchwitch

From that tweeter’s profile:

I belong to The Lord Christ Jesus,bought with Blood.

Ew.

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!

149 Timothy Watson  Oct 20, 2014 1:02:37pm

re: #131 RealityBasedEbola

Debunked… metabunk.org

Basically, the shooting are reported under “State Police / Misc” because of the jurisdiction that handled it. The full PDF does show and account for them.

RBS

Thanks, was about to link to this page and suggest it was included in the State Police’s data:
fbi.gov

150 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 1:03:01pm

re: #147 Vicious Piebola

The most awful ones always have “Jesus” in their profile.

Jesus doesn’t want to be in their profile.

He didn’t seem to be that big on ownership of humans, either, nor using blood as a currency, although His followers seem to think so.

151 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 1:03:07pm

re: #148 Kragar

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!

Bah. In time Papa Nurgle will claim them all.

152 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 1:05:58pm
153 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 1:07:53pm

On CNN now, Lawmaker: 21 day quarantine not enough

Jeebus. They seriously want to drag this out, don’t they?

154 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 1:07:56pm

Wingnuts seem to think that because Greg Abbott married a Brown Woman that makes him Not A Racist, just like Chuck C being married to an Asian Woman makes him Not A Racist.

Um no.

155 Targetpractice  Oct 20, 2014 1:09:04pm

re: #153 Jenner7

On CNN now, Lawmaker: 21 day quarantine not enough

Jeebus. They seriously want to drag this out, don’t they?

Fear brings them votes. Irrational fear more so.

156 Internet Tough Guy  Oct 20, 2014 1:09:05pm

re: #152 Jenner7

ZOMG RINO

157 darthstar  Oct 20, 2014 1:09:27pm

42 days? Nobody said anything about it taking up to 84 days to incubate, which is why CDC is secretly quarantining Republicans for up to 168 days.

158 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 1:09:48pm

re: #155 Targetpractice

And she’s a fucking Democrat.

SMH

159 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 1:11:00pm

re: #154 Vicious Piebola

Wingnuts seem to think that because Greg Abbott married a Brown Woman that makes him Not A Racist, just like Chuck C being married to an Asian Woman makes him Not A Racist.

Um no.

Cliven Bundy has black friends!

160 bill d  Oct 20, 2014 1:12:44pm

Still chasing that natural gas powered car revolution that will never be.

161 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 1:13:56pm

re: #141 Vicious Piebola

Direct contact with someone with Ebola can spread Ebola. Doesn’t matter the religion.

There are some practices that are more dangerous than others - some communities traditional practices preparing a deceased person for burial can expose many people to Ebola - and it’s a common practice to many religions (think washing, cleansing, binding the remains with cloth, etc.).

Christian rites may spread Ebola.

In response to the spread of the deadly virus, prominent Nigerian churches have asked parishioners to stop taking the Communion elements in the mouth and refrain from shaking hands as a ceremonial sign of peace.

Nigeria’s Catholic and Anglican churches issued statements in August asking priests to deliver communion elements into parishioner’s cupped palms, instead of placing the wafers on the tongue. The churches also approved the practice of “intinction,” or dipping the communion wafer into the cup of wine before placing it in the mouth.

“Let us state clearly that the reception of communion-in-the hand neither affects the validity, sanctity, dignity and divinity of the Eucharist nor vitiates the full effects of this Sacrament on its recipients,” the Archbishop of Lagos, Alfred Adewale Martins, said in a statement.

Shaking of hands during the rite of peace would similarly be discouraged until the Ebola scare is over, the Catholic Archbishop of Abuja announced.

“Many people are not comfortable with shaking people they don’t know during this period of Ebola,” Archbishop John Cardinal Onaiyekan told Punch.

Despite the official orders, some faithful Christians are still choosing to receive the elements in the mouth, Nigeria’s Guardian newspaper reports.

Ebola appears to punish those with Christian beliefs.

But Trokon Browne says those are relatively easy steps. What’s harder, she says, is to keep a safe distance when a friend or family member is sick, perhaps with Ebola.

“I cannot see my husband sick and not touch him. Or I cannot see my child sick,” she said. “Ebola might as well kill us. So it’s still very hard. Trust me, it’s still very hard.”

Firestone Did What Governments Have Not: Stopped Ebola In Its Tracks
It’s also hard for some people to accept the way Ebola appears to punish those who are trying to follow Christian teachings, Herman Browne said. That’s why some in his congregation consider the disease demonic.

“Those who don’t care and those who don’t want to express their care are those who survive. Those who actually care are those who die,” he said. “At the heart of it, for some of us with religious eyes, is an anti-care, anti-love message. And that can be very draining.”

This time, the message is less harsh. Trokon wasn’t infected. And her sick friend is one of the lucky ones who survived Ebola.

162 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 1:14:15pm

re: #153 Jenner7

On CNN now, Lawmaker: 21 day quarantine not enough

Jeebus. They seriously want to drag this out, don’t they?

Preferably through election day.

163 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 1:14:16pm

re: #155 Targetpractice

Fear brings them votes. Irrational fear more so.

164 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 1:15:33pm

re: #157 darthstar

42 days? Nobody said anything about it taking up to 84 days to incubate, which is why CDC is secretly quarantining Republicans for up to 168 days.

It’s got to be 42 days. It’s the answer to everything. That’s what the Guide says. That’s what the most powerful computer in the universe says. And that can’t be wrong. /

165 RealityBasedEbola  Oct 20, 2014 1:15:37pm

re: #157 darthstar

42 days? Nobody said anything about it taking up to 84 days to incubate, which is why CDC is secretly quarantining Republicans for up to 168 days.

The RWNJs are absolutely correct on this. The safest thing they can do is self quarantine until it is safe, in particular, avoid public places where there are large numbers of people coming and going. I would highly recommend they stay inside, not have ANY contact with the outside world (especially mail, since that could very easily be contaminated).

I would think that all danger would be past by 5 NOV 14.

166 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 1:17:26pm
167 Ian G.  Oct 20, 2014 1:17:47pm

re: #141 Vicious Piebola

Haven’t heard from Teh Pamz in a while

[Embedded content]

Senegal is 94% Muslim and has contained the virus and eliminated it within its borders. Liberia is 85% Christian and is still dealing with the catastrophic epidemic.

Thanks for your input, Pam.

168 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 1:19:03pm

re: #163 Vicious Piebola

[deleted tweet]

169 Vogon Poetry  Oct 20, 2014 1:20:59pm

re: #167 Ian G.

Nigeria is split nearly 50/50 with Muslims and Christians, and they stopped the disease and are now Ebola free (though it’s possible another case may come across the border).

170 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 1:22:48pm

re: #169 Vogon Poetry

Nigeria is split nearly 50/50 with Muslims and Christians, and they stopped the disease and are now Ebola free (though it’s possible another case may come across the border).

or from Texas

171 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 1:23:38pm
172 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 1:24:47pm

I just realized that “Angry Baby” meme is a baby GIRL.

173 psddluva4evah  Oct 20, 2014 1:25:16pm

Hey guys I’m at work now but I wanted to give yall a heads up that this evening at 8pm EST. I’ll be over at Balloon Juice answering questions on Ebola, Microbiology and Lab Protocols. One of the FB is gonna put up a post for me to answer questions.

If ur already a commenter over there you can ask questions there if not maybe your question will be asked by one of the other commenters. If not I can certainly answer the question here at the page i put up a few days ago, but it might take me a minute

FYI, my job over the weekend hit us with a butload of in services on Ebola Preparedness, I def have more info than I ever had before

Either way, just hit me up.

174 psddluva4evah  Oct 20, 2014 1:27:31pm

Also too my friend who’s lives in DFW and who used to work at Presby D tells me

” Presby is running on 15 to 50 percent staff on hand all other are gone…. No patients want to go there… Thinking of lay off ppl!”

175 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 1:27:55pm

...

176 Lidane  Oct 20, 2014 1:29:00pm
177 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 1:29:39pm

Interesting. These were right next to each other in my timeline.

178 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 1:30:00pm

OT: I just heard ‘Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds’ from the forthcoming Flaming Lips’ cover of the Sgt. Pepper album.

It’s pretty horrible. Miley Cyrus is the only worthwhile part of the song, believe it or not.

179 BeenHereAwhile  Oct 20, 2014 1:31:59pm

re: #111 Backwoods_Sleuth

heh…

[Embedded content]

Sha Na Na’s Performance at Woodstock was an incredible contrast to the the 3 days and nights of rock, folk, country, and latin musical performances which had taken place prior to their set.

Early Monday morning, a friend and I walked down to the front of the stage to catch the Jimi Hendrix set. When we arrived, the MC announced, “Here’s Sha Na Na,”

‘What the fuck is Sha Na Na?’

Then these guys run out on stage in Gold Lame’ suits, and start singing “Get a job, Sha na na na - sha na na na na - Get A Job.”

It woke the crowd up.

But everyone was waiting for Hendrix.

180 Tigger2  Oct 20, 2014 1:34:20pm

re: #163 Vicious Piebola

[Embedded content]

I agree with him, when I was young America was the home of the brave just like it was written in the last line of the Star Spangled Banner now it seems like a lot of America is the home of the wimps, scared of everything.

181 Charles Johnson  Oct 20, 2014 1:35:40pm

Wow. Another fail for Chuck.

182 Randall Gross  Oct 20, 2014 1:38:01pm

The best Ebola joke - you probably won’t get it.

183 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 1:43:27pm

re: #182 Randall Gross

The best Ebola joke - you probably won’t get it.

I am so stealing that.

184 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 1:44:46pm

re: #183 Kragar

I am so stealing that.

Yeah, me too.

185 gwangung  Oct 20, 2014 1:45:54pm

What?

186 Randall Gross  Oct 20, 2014 1:46:45pm

re: #183 Kragar

I am so stealing that.

I stole it from my friend, Jim Aiken.

187 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 1:47:28pm

re: #185 gwangung

188 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 1:48:37pm

re: #185 gwangung

Funny body language there. ‘Save the pumpkin!’

189 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 1:48:41pm
190 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 1:51:05pm
191 gwangung  Oct 20, 2014 1:51:42pm

re: #187 Backwoods_Sleuth

[Embedded content]

Isn’t this another WTF are they thinking moment? I mean…a pumpkin with the word “racist” on it is threatening?

192 Internet Tough Guy  Oct 20, 2014 1:52:27pm

re: #191 gwangung

But it was a big pumpkin!

193 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 1:52:56pm

re: #192 Internet Tough Guy

But it was a big pumpkin!

The “new orange”…

194 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 1:53:44pm

re: #191 gwangung

I would smash the one with “white privelage” (sic) written on it.

195 EPR-radar  Oct 20, 2014 1:54:09pm

re: #191 gwangung

Isn’t this another WTF are they thinking moment? I mean…a pumpkin with the word “racist” on it is threatening?

Of course. There is nothing more threatening to perpetual liars than a dose of truth.

196 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 1:57:01pm

McCain Will Push For Ground Troops In Iraq, Syria If GOP Wins The Senate

“…At a Senate Armed Services Committee meeting in September, Republicans were almost unanimous in calling for a broader war in Iraq and Syria. “

197 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 1:57:54pm

re: #195 EPR-radar

Of course. There is nothing more threatening to perpetual liars than a dose of truth.

Mmmm, pumpkin spice Truth.

198 Internet Tough Guy  Oct 20, 2014 1:59:39pm

re: #196 jaunte

McCain also said the U.S. needs to remove Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in order to defeat the Islamic State, the militant group also known as ISIS or ISIL.

GODDAMMIT THE ONLY REAL COUNTER TO ISIS IS THE SYRIAN ARMY YOU FUCKING JACKASS

ARRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGHHHHHH

199 Mike Lamb  Oct 20, 2014 2:00:10pm

re: #190 Backwoods_Sleuth

[Embedded content]

He seems to white knuckling her shoulders…

200 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 2:02:53pm

re: #196 jaunte

McCain Will Push For Ground Troops In Iraq, Syria If GOP Wins The Senate

Yes, what is needed to combat this pseudo-state is the removal of whatever remnants of the actual state apparatus that still exist!

Brilliant!

(I’m really sorry that those old Guinness ads, even if they were for the awful Guinness-from-the-bottle product, never really caught fire pop-culturally.)

201 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 2:03:27pm
The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to Iraq for M1A1 Abrams tank ammunition and associated equipment, parts and logistical support for an estimated cost of $600 million.
…….snip…….
The prime contractor will be General Dynamics-Ordnance Tactical Systems in St Petersburg, Florida.
dsca.mil
202 klys  Oct 20, 2014 2:03:45pm

re: #200 Schadenboner

Guinness ads?

Sad Kitteh approves of Guinness ads.

203 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 2:05:17pm

re: #202 klys

Guinness ads?

Sad Kitteh approves of Guinness ads.

204 CriticalDragon1177  Oct 20, 2014 2:10:28pm

Here’s you pro gun, anti gay, anti choice wingnut conspiracy theory of the weak,

WND Pundit: Democrats Want To ‘Destroy Marriage’ In Order To Cause Violence So They Can Ban Guns
rightwingwatch.org

205 TedStriker  Oct 20, 2014 2:18:02pm

re: #204 CriticalDragon1177

Here’s you pro gun, anti gay, anti choice wingnut conspiracy theory of the weak,

WND Pundit: Democrats Want To ‘Destroy Marriage’ In Order To Cause Violence So They Can Ban Guns
rightwingwatch.org

WTF did I just read?

206 Internet Tough Guy  Oct 20, 2014 2:20:19pm

re: #205 TedStriker

Gay marriage is a false flag.

207 A Mom Anon  Oct 20, 2014 2:26:56pm

re: #205 TedStriker

It feels like I’m watching someone’s mental illness manifest itself right there. I feel like I shouldn’t be part of it, seriously. No one who is anywhere close to happy and well adjusted thinks like that. All I feel when I read that is sad.

208 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 2:27:14pm
209 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 2:27:53pm

re: #202 klys

Guinness ads?

Sad Kitteh approves of Guinness ads.

Nah, these:

Video

210 Testy Toad T  Oct 20, 2014 2:29:05pm

re: #204 CriticalDragon1177

Here’s you pro gun, anti gay, anti choice wingnut conspiracy theory of the weak,

WND Pundit: Democrats Want To ‘Destroy Marriage’ In Order To Cause Violence So They Can Ban Guns
rightwingwatch.org

1) Government does unpopular thing
2) People rise up in violence with their guns
3) Government uses the violence to take away their guns

I’m no political science expert, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but isn’t it easier to take away somebody’s gun before they start shooting you with it? Seems like we could really cut out the middleman here.

211 Varek Raith  Oct 20, 2014 2:29:14pm

I ripped me trousers!

212 klys  Oct 20, 2014 2:29:18pm

re: #209 Schadenboner

They actually had a really nice display at the tour there where they showed commercials from various eras. It was fun to watch the evolution of TV advertising in that microcosm.

213 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 2:32:56pm

re: #208 jaunte

[Embedded content]

214 darthstar  Oct 20, 2014 2:35:24pm

re: #213 wrenchwitch

215 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 2:35:32pm

re: #212 klys

They actually had a really nice display at the tour there where they showed commercials from various eras. It was fun to watch the evolution of TV advertising in that microcosm.

I toured the Pint Glass back in 2005/6 on a University Study Abroad thing (Econ majors qualified for Business School trips, actually a surprisingly chill group of people), about the only part of the Dublin week I remember, oddly enough.

Well, that and the Eirecomm operations center.

216 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 2:38:12pm

Here come the Texas Theocrats.

217 nines09  Oct 20, 2014 2:40:28pm

re: #190 Backwoods_Sleuth

[Embedded content]

“See what money can buy?”

218 klys  Oct 20, 2014 2:40:53pm

Friendly reminder to my fellow geeks, if you have purchased Beyond Earth through Steam, it is now available to pre-load so that you can be ready to play on Friday.

219 Timothy Watson  Oct 20, 2014 2:42:36pm

re: #218 klys

Friendly reminder to my fellow geeks, if you have purchased Beyond Earth through Steam, it is now available to pre-load so that you can be ready to play on Friday.

Cool, thanks for the info!

220 Iwouldprefernotto  Oct 20, 2014 2:44:26pm

re: #218 klys

Friendly reminder to my fellow geeks, if you have purchased Beyond Earth through Steam, it is now available to pre-load so that you can be ready to play on Friday.

Not going to play at this time, but please keep us “almost geeks” up to date.

221 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 2:44:27pm

So, protesters at the Rams game yesterday were involved in a fight with fans. Guess who went to jail and who didn’t?

222 jaunte  Oct 20, 2014 2:46:47pm

re: #221 Jenner7

They just can’t stop themselves making it worse.

223 Jay C  Oct 20, 2014 2:50:17pm

re: #40 iossarian

You’d have thought we’d be reduced to packs of mutant jetsam roaming the irradiated badlands by now.

IOW. the “Permanent Republican Majority”…

224 goddamnedfrank  Oct 20, 2014 2:50:23pm

re: #205 TedStriker

WTF did I just read?

… under the supervision of the Reverse Vampires.

225 Blind Frog Ebola White  Oct 20, 2014 2:52:04pm

re: #83 Rightwingconspirator

Heh, lunchtime on the west coast. Now I’m really hungry.

Yeah. That pie is making my turkey sandwich and banana lunch look pretty sad.

226 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 2:56:45pm
227 klys  Oct 20, 2014 2:57:25pm

re: #220 Iwouldprefernotto

Not going to play at this time, but please keep us “almost geeks” up to date.

I do not approve of this new trend of releasing games on days other than Tuesday, because we’re going out of town on Friday and so I will only get Thursday evening/Friday day (if I am being bad) to play.

And we have awesome tickets for a hockey game on Thursday evening.

First world problems.

228 klys  Oct 20, 2014 2:58:13pm

re: #225 Blind Frog Belly White

Yeah. That pie is making my turkey sandwich and banana lunch look pretty sad.

I read that as turkey and banana sandwich. o.O

229 Dr. Matt  Oct 20, 2014 2:58:42pm
230 Dr. Matt  Oct 20, 2014 3:01:27pm

re: #144 Backwoods_Sleuth

The “check your VIN” site is down, but I kinda suspect the airbags in my 98 Ford Ranger are defective since they didn’t deploy when MrBWS had a head on collision with a big deer a few years ago.

With nearly 5 million people impacted, I’m sure the website will be a tad bit busy for awhile. And your 98 Ford Ranger is a work horse….no air bags needed.

231 RealityBasedEbola  Oct 20, 2014 3:04:15pm

re: #216 jaunte

[Embedded content]

Here come the Texas Theocrats.

You can have my hummer when you pry … Wait… that’s just not right.

RBS

232 darthstar  Oct 20, 2014 3:05:20pm

re: #156 Internet Tough Guy

ZOMG RINO

Speaking of which…I ran into Rand Paul and Ted Cruz talking about shit over the weekend.

233 Blind Frog Ebola White  Oct 20, 2014 3:13:06pm

re: #228 klys

I read that as turkey and banana sandwich. o.O

What am I, Elvis Presley?
//

234 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 3:13:11pm

re: #218 klys

Friendly reminder to my fellow geeks, if you have purchased Beyond Earth through Steam, it is now available to pre-load so that you can be ready to play on Friday.

Sigh, I really want it, but will probably wait till the Thanksgiving or X-Mas sales. I just got Borderlands new game last week

235 Eventual Carrion  Oct 20, 2014 3:13:53pm

re: #180 Tigger2

I agree with him, when I was young America was the home of the brave just like it was written in the last line of the Star Spangled Banner now it seems like a lot of America is the home of the wimps, scared of everything.

There is much to fear. Everything from Ebola to demons. So like a dwarf at a urinal, stay on your toes.

236 yoshicastmaster  Oct 20, 2014 3:14:05pm

re: #84 Charles Johnson

Sry, but I’m still confused on this:

“The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease…”

“Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.”

who.int

237 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 3:16:04pm
238 Eventual Carrion  Oct 20, 2014 3:17:02pm

re: #185 gwangung

What?

[Embedded content]

Where are those pumpkin riot thugs mischievous youts when you need them?

239 Blind Frog Ebola White  Oct 20, 2014 3:20:29pm

re: #237 teleskiguy

[Embedded content]

Brings a whole new meaning to ‘Patent Search’.

240 Eventual Carrion  Oct 20, 2014 3:20:32pm

re: #210 Testy Toad T

1) Government does unpopular thing
2) People rise up in violence with their guns
3) Government uses the violence to take away their guns

I’m no political science expert, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but isn’t it easier to take away somebody’s gun before they start shooting you with it? Seems like we could really cut out the middleman here.

But the people rising up is what they seem to live for.

241 goddamnedfrank  Oct 20, 2014 3:21:23pm

re: #236 yoshicastmaster

It’s probably fairly difficult in West Africa to truly nail down when exposure actually occurs. I wouldn’t take those studies references to long incubation periods to be any kind of definitive statement that it took that long for the disease to manifest. It could easily just be people thinking they were exposed earlier than they really were.

It’s not like we can do ethical informed consent studies to accurately define the incubation period, it’s conceivable that it is longer, but it’s also conceivable that we’re seeing statistical noise.

242 Kragar  Oct 20, 2014 3:23:26pm

Last week, O’Keefe and two of his collaborators tried to bait Democratic field staffers into approving voter fraud involving Colorado’s universal vote-by-mail program, according to three Democratic staffers who interacted with O’Keefe or his colleagues.

Democratic staffers in Colorado recently came to believe they were the subject of an O’Keefe operation after campaign workers became suspicious about would-be volunteers who had asked about filling out and submitting mail-in ballots for others. Recently, the 30-year-old O’Keefe has targeted the Senate campaigns of Arkansas Democrat Mark Pryor and Kentucky Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes by filming undercover videos of staffers or the candidate.

243 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 3:27:02pm

WTFITS
I just can’t even
“a touch of Bonnie Parker panache”

244 makeitstop  Oct 20, 2014 3:27:30pm

re: #242 Kragar

[Embedded content]

Isn’t that little d-bag on probation? How does he get to fly all over the country being a douche?

245 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 3:29:09pm

Patriotism:

So awful, we have to steal it from them:

246 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 3:30:03pm

Not surprising that the usual suspects are pushing the “42 days” bullshit, considering that the MSM is pushing the “everybody is showing dissatisfaction with Obama” bullshit, too, and even this am, on Morning Slow (of course—it’s pretty unwatchable but I do sacrifice my sanity from time to time) they were conflating Pres Obama with GWB as having the same kind of presidency.

Arrrgghhh.

247 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 3:33:54pm

re: #243 Vicious Piebola

WTFITS
I just can’t even
“a touch of Bonnie Parker panache”

[Embedded content]

If these are the “new heroes”, we’re in deep shit.

248 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 3:34:44pm

re: #242 Kragar

249 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 3:35:52pm

Except—there probably won’t be any more.

4 Chicago hospitals agree to accept potential Ebola patients - @ABC7Chicago
read more on abc7chicago.com

“Potential”?

250 EPR-radar  Oct 20, 2014 3:36:56pm

re: #237 teleskiguy

There is a _lot_ of paper in that photo. I’m a patent agent, and the change from paper filings to electronic filings was a massive improvement.

251 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 3:37:50pm

Where’s DD?

MONTGOMERY, Alabama —- Mike Hubbard, speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives and a powerful leader in the state Republican Party, has been indicted by a grand jury and charged with 23 counts, including using his office for personal gain and soliciting things of value.

“Late Monday afternoon, Hubbard reported to the Lee County Jail where he was booked.

“If convicted, Hubbard faces a maximum penalty of two to 20 years in prison and up to $30,000 in fines for each count. ” More

al.com

I’m sure if NC looked hard enough, they could find something similar on Thom Tillis…

252 A Mom Anon  Oct 20, 2014 3:38:45pm

re: #249 Justanotherhuman

Our crooked as hell governor was all over the teevee talking about prepping more GA hospitals to prepare for the “epidemic”. Sure buddy. And a local company is contracted to provide all the hazmat gloves, suits, masks, etc. So he gets to say “JOBS!” right before the election too. Bonus!

Give me a break.

253 Eventual Carrion  Oct 20, 2014 3:39:56pm

re: #243 Vicious Piebola

WTFITS
I just can’t even
“a touch of Bonnie Parker panache”

[Embedded content]

Orange, she should wear orange.

254 A Mom Anon  Oct 20, 2014 3:40:28pm

re: #242 Kragar

Please tell me someone got a picture of this little asshat wearing his fake moustache, just so we can all point and laugh at him. What an oozing pustule.

255 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 3:42:20pm

re: #254 A Mom Anon

Please tell me someone got a picture of this little asshat wearing his fake moustache, just so we can all point and laugh at him. What an oozing pustule.

Courtesy of the man himself.

256 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 3:42:27pm

re: #252 A Mom Anon

Our crooked as hell governor was all over the teevee talking about prepping more GA hospitals to prepare for the “epidemic”. Sure buddy. And a local company is contracted to provide all the hazmat gloves, suits, masks, etc. So he gets to say “JOBS!” right before the election too. Bonus!

Give me a break.

Also, wondering what connections your governor might have to that local company providing the ebola supplies…

257 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 3:46:25pm

He’s just being cheap…

Citing Ebola concerns, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal orders new travel restrictions for state agencies - @thehill
read more on thehill.com

Is he restricting himself?

258 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 3:47:11pm

STAY CLASSY WINGNUTS

259 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 3:48:42pm

One point? Is that all you got, MM?

Poll: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell takes 1-point lead over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky’s US Senate race - @heraldleader
read more on kentucky.com

Well, it is just one poll.

260 Wendell Zurkowitz (slave to the waffle light)  Oct 20, 2014 3:51:46pm

re: #259 Justanotherhuman

One point? Is that all you got, MM?

Poll: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell takes 1-point lead over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky’s US Senate race - @heraldleader
read more on kentucky.com

Well, it is just one poll.

To the unskewermobile!

261 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 3:52:10pm

JUST ONE MOAR TEASPOON OF IPECAC

262 ObserverArt  Oct 20, 2014 3:55:08pm

Wow, I am shocked…shocked I tell ya’…by Ohio John Kasich and his statements on the ACA and Republicans not overturning it.

Someone has gotten to him. Now, if those same people could get to him and explain that women’s health issues should be the concern of the women and their docs and not the state.

And maybe a review of your tax cuts to get back to helping the communities with police and schools and infrastructure.

Some have floated his name as a national candidate (President, VeeP) is he starting to try to find the middle left in his party and see if there is some play there over all the fear mongering by the TeaPublicans? Interesting.

I can see him trying. Maybe he will want to be a Midwest type moderate Republican like in the old days. There is certainly room in that position within the GOP. He could be the only one!

Wow…we just had a hell of a crack of thunder…gonna see what’s up with that!

263 bill d  Oct 20, 2014 3:55:47pm

re: #261 Vicious Piebola

JUST ONE MOAR TEASPOON OF IPECAC

[Embedded content]

I don’t get the opportunity to use the word hagiography very often.

264 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 3:55:48pm

re: #261 Vicious Piebola

JUST ONE MOAR TEASPOON OF IPECAC

[Embedded content]

Hey! That’s James O’Keefe’s mustache!

265 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 20, 2014 3:59:09pm

re: #236 yoshicastmaster

Sry, but I’m still confused on this:

“The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease…”

“Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.”

who.int

There has never been an observed case of ebola incubating for more than 21 days. Mathematical models predict that a certain number of cases will exceed that incubation, because of cross-infection or whatever the hell other reason. I’m leery of the West African study because 42 is exactly 21, which is just too coincidental.

It is possible that in very rare cases the disease can incubate for longer than 21 days. It is more likely that it is not actually incubating, but that the symptoms are swallowed up in other symptoms—chronic alcoholics, for example, tend to ‘incubate’ late because they can’t separate out disease problems from other problems.

So what we have here is a problem with terminology: 21 days is the maximum observed incubation period. We’ve never seen Ebola take longer than that, in any time where we solidly knew the timeline of exposure. Statistics says it’s very likely that that 21 day barrier is sometimes breached, but absent an actual case, we can’t really say.

266 Eventual Carrion  Oct 20, 2014 3:59:55pm

re: #258 Vicious Piebola

STAY CLASSY WINGNUTS

[Embedded content]

That prez sure is a peach.

267 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 3:59:56pm

OH HE HAS SUCH DREAMY EYES. HE’S SO DREAMY. I CAN’T STOP DREAMING ABOUT HIM.

268 bill d  Oct 20, 2014 4:01:22pm

Anybody in Fresno need something to do during lunch Thursday? :

269 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 4:01:52pm

In what universe is this pro-Hagan?

270 teleskiguy  Oct 20, 2014 4:05:15pm
271 OhNo!EbolaZombies!  Oct 20, 2014 4:05:55pm

re: #269 Backwoods_Sleuth

In what universe is this pro-Hagan?

[Embedded content]

No.
Just…no.
I get it, but…no.

272 Eventual Carrion  Oct 20, 2014 4:06:27pm

re: #268 b.d.

Anybody in Fresno need something to do during lunch Thursday? :

[Embedded content]

“Oh, and hey guys, just wanted to say thanks for choosing the Airport Ramada Inn for your conference.”

273 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 4:06:53pm

Writing “RACISM” on a pumpkin is the same as “smashing” according to SMOTI

274 Jenner7  Oct 20, 2014 4:07:15pm

re: #270 teleskiguy

Good for Andy. She’s not funny…at all.

IMHO.

275 bill d  Oct 20, 2014 4:09:09pm

re: #272 Eventual Carrion

“Oh, and hey guys, just wanted to say thanks for choosing the Airport Ramada Inn for your conference.”

They still have Ramada Inns? Learn something new everyday, guess I don’t have to stay at the Howard Johnsons all the time now.

//

276 darthstar  Oct 20, 2014 4:12:53pm

re: #242 Kragar

[Embedded content]

Isn’t voter fraud (and attempted voter fraud) a violation of his parole?

277 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 4:13:26pm

re: #269 Backwoods_Sleuth

In what universe is this pro-Hagan?

[Embedded content]

Here’s a story on that.

fayobserver.com

Probably the local KKK at work there.

278 Justanotherhuman  Oct 20, 2014 4:16:01pm

Way to fuck up your career…

Pennsylvania Supreme Court suspends justice over pornographic emails - @PhillyInquirer
read more on inquirer.com

279 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 4:17:52pm

re: #245 Jenner7

RT @D_v_E: Oh, look. Here are Tea Partiers using the upside-down American flag as a protest.

It’s the Tea Party—we expect derp from them.

280 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 4:20:05pm

re: #277 Justanotherhuman

Here’s a story on that.

fayobserver.com

Probably the local KKK at work there.

Yeah, I read that one before I posted the tweet.
There’s also a “Concerned Citizens of Cumberland County” Facebook page, but they seem to be a Pennsylvania group focused on environmental issues and not very active at that.

281 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 4:22:02pm

re: #251 Justanotherhuman

He can bunk with our former governor and a quarter of the legislature. Sadly, my candidate’s opponent beat an indictment.

282 Decatur Deb  Oct 20, 2014 4:23:58pm

re: #273 Vicious Piebola

Writing “RACISM” on a pumpkin is the same as “smashing” according to SMOTI

#Ferguson Protesters Arrested for Littering & Assault at Smashing Pumpkin Protest shar.es via

“Smashing Pumpkins” would be a good name for a garage band.

283 urbanmeemaw  Oct 20, 2014 4:24:06pm

re: #262 ObserverArt

Observer: Have you seen any of his campaign ads? He’s really campaigning as a kinder, gentler, Kasich. Good for him, though, for bucking the tide. I wonder if he’s sensing that the hard right Tea Party venom is not a winning proposition in Ohio? Considering the fact the Dem gubernatorial candidate flamed out, Kasich could very easily go full metal wing nut and not risk much politically. I’m very curious to know what is prompting this “rebranding”.

I do give him credit for bypassing the legislature to get Medicaid Expansion.

But I did not vote for him.

284 Higgs Boson's Mate  Oct 20, 2014 4:28:48pm

re: #242 Kragar

James O’Keefe: backpfeiffengesicht.

285 ObserverArt  Oct 20, 2014 4:30:35pm

re: #283 urbanmeemaw

Observer: Have you seen any of his campaign ads? He’s really campaigning as a kinder, gentler, Kasich. Good for him, though, for bucking the tide. I wonder if he’s sensing that the hard right Tea Party venom is not a winning proposition in Ohio? Considering the fact the Dem gubernatorial candidate flamed out, Kasich could very easily go full metal wing nut and not risk much politically. I’m very curious to know what is prompting this “rebranding”.

I do give him credit for bypassing the legislature to get Medicaid Expansion.

But I did not vote for him.

Yeah, his commercials are down home Ohio sensible politikin.

He does have some old school Republican traits, but when he decided on a comeback and going for Governor he seemed to go with the flow and drink the Tea and do the FOX nutty thing.

Wasn’t he even a talking head for FOX??? I seem to remember something like that.

He could just be gaming, but there is a sense that he is trying to sell himself as more a moderate.

286 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 4:32:53pm
287 Vicious Piebola  Oct 20, 2014 4:33:07pm
288 wrenchwitch  Oct 20, 2014 4:35:18pm

re: #287 Vicious Piebola

[Embedded content]

‘Cracked Pumpkins’. Nope, just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

289 ObserverArt  Oct 20, 2014 4:36:44pm

re: #288 wrenchwitch

‘Cracked Pumpkins’. Nope, just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

Billy does not approve.

290 Shiplord Kirel  Oct 20, 2014 4:38:32pm

re: #287 Vicious Piebola

[Embedded content]

The police will soon squash this disorderly uprising.

291 freetoken  Oct 20, 2014 4:39:21pm

re: #290 Shiplord Kirel

The police will soon squash this disorderly uprising.

You’re out of your gourd.

292 Higgs Boson's Mate  Oct 20, 2014 4:42:34pm

re: #287 Vicious Piebola

It must give CCJ nightmares to see his head being carried off by armed police.

293 Dead Tired  Oct 20, 2014 4:45:39pm

re: #292 Higgs Boson’s Mate

It must give CCJ nightmares to see his head being carried off by armed police.

Ouch.

294 Schadenboner  Oct 20, 2014 4:59:38pm

re: #230 Dr. Matt

With nearly 5 million people impacted, I’m sure the website will be a tad bit busy for awhile. And your 98 Ford Ranger is a work horse….no air bags needed.

5 million people and at least one deer, you mean.

295 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 20, 2014 4:59:51pm
296 wheat-dogghazi-bola  Oct 20, 2014 10:07:28pm

re: #236 yoshicastmaster

Sry, but I’m still confused on this:

“The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease…”

“Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.”

who.int

It’s statistics-speak. Think of the normal distribution curve (aka the “bell curve”). The quote means that within the sample, 95% of the people had a incubation period of 1-21 days. Another 3% fell outside the 21-day period, so in total 98% fell within the 1-42 day window.
Normal distribution curve

95% corresponds to two standard deviations (+/- 2σ) of the mean (μ). The other 3%-5% lies in the “tails” of the curve.

It’s not a self-contradiction, as someone above complained. It’s stats-speak that any scientist would understand.

297 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 6:49:57am

re: #241 goddamnedfrank

So, if it’s “it’s conceivable that it is longer” what myth are we debunking? Argh I’m going to have to post a few of these because I’m not literate in html or whatever would let me add a response tag at the top of this.

298 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 6:55:48am

re: #265 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

Right, so is there a myth that’s being debunked? This explanation feels like there’s not. If republicans want to freak out about unlikely but possible incubation times, then it’s not necessarily accurate to say they have their facts wrong, which is what debunking suggests.

299 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 7:07:12am

re: #296 wheat-dogghazi-bola

Ha thanks for explaining the stats behind this to me. But this leaves open the question as to what has been debunked here? If you want to say the right wing sites are overreacting to statistically small possibilities, fine. But I thought this post suggested they got their facts wrong. Now you’re telling me that, statistically speaking, they didn’t get the facts wrong.

I’m all for debunking, but let’s also play fair. According to your explanation, the sites are right. Incubation can last up to 42 days.

Also, your explanation, which says that 3% fell outside the 21 day period, contradicts “Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut,” who has said that there have been no observable cases beyond 21 days, and also contradicts the point of this post itself, which is that the 42 day incubation is a myth.

Which leaves me still wondering what the WHO language means. Guess I’ll have to look up the studies if I care that much. (I don’t, because I’m not worried about ebola, and because these posts were more about clarifying what has been debunked. Or, as the case may be, not debunked.)

Right wing sites twist science enough. But according to the explanations I’m getting here, in this case they’re actually not “deliberately distorting the words of the WHO in order to cause panic about Ebola.”

300 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 9:10:24am

re: #298 yoshicastmaster

Right, so is there a myth that’s being debunked?

Yes.

his explanation feels like there’s not. If republicans want to freak out about unlikely but possible incubation times, then it’s not necessarily accurate to say they have their facts wrong, which is what debunking suggests.

They do have the facts wrong. We have never seen a case of a 42 day Ebola incubation. The drop-off continues after 21, anyway: if the math predicts 3% of cases will be over 21 (which, again, is speculation, unconfirmed), then the number of cases at 42 is going to be somewhere around 0.00006%.

In any common use of the phrase, there isn’t a 42 day incubation period for Ebola.

Also, your explanation, which says that 3% fell outside the 21 day period, contradicts “Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut,” who has said that there have been no observable cases beyond 21 days, and also contradicts the point of this post itself, which is that the 42 day incubation is a myth.

How does this contradict me, exactly?

301 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 9:14:06am

re: #297 yoshicastmaster

So, if it’s “it’s conceivable that it is longer” what myth are we debunking? Argh I’m going to have to post a few of these because I’m not literate in html or whatever would let me add a response tag at the top of this.

It’s conceivable that almost anything is true.

302 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 9:55:07am

re: #300 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

Contradiction? No problem:

wheat-dogghazi-bola: “within the sample… 3% fell outside the 21-day period”
Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut : “There has never been an observed case of ebola incubating for more than 21 days”

Just let me know if that 3% in the sample for the scientific study was observed or not. (Not to mention that last 2%).

And if it’s unobserved, it still contradicts this post, which says that right wing sites are misleading about the incubation period.

As far as the number of cases at day 42, who cares? Pretty sure the point is the number of cases between 21 and 42. Which is not insignificant. Let’s see, if 8,900 people in Africa contracted ebola since March, and 5% will show symptoms after 21 days, and a train leaves Monrovia headed west at 30 kph… where’s my calculator?!?

But seriously, if the best math, science, whatever that we have predicts that 3-5% of ebola cases incubate longer than 21 days, then you tell me: is 21 days the maximum incubation period for ebola? I’m going with “no.”

303 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 10:12:51am

re: #302 yoshicastmaster

Contradiction? No problem:

wheat-dogghazi-bola: “within the sample… 3% fell outside the 21-day period”

Did you see me say I didn’t trust that sample because of the conditions it was taken in?

Just let me know if that 3% in the sample for the scientific study was observed or not. (Not to mention that last 2%).

Not well-observed, no.

As far as the number of cases at day 42, who cares? Pretty sure the point is the number of cases between 21 and 42. Which is not insignificant. Let’s see, if 8,900 people in Africa contracted ebola since March, and 5% will show symptoms after 21 days, and a train leaves Monrovia headed west at 30 kph… where’s my calculator?!?

Why would you assume that?

But seriously, if the best math, science, whatever that we have predicts that 3-5% of ebola cases incubate longer than 21 days, then you tell me: is 21 days the maximum incubation period for ebola? I’m going with “no.”

That’s not true, though. The mathematical models are not the best science we have. Their usefulness is completely debatable; lots of biology stuff does not act statistically simple, because there’s shitloads of feedback loops.

So we don’t actually know what that percentage of people longer than 21 days are. We don’t know if they exist at all; if they do, they may exist as 2.9% at 22 days and .1% at 23 days and 0% at 24 days.

We have a lot of observation, unfortunately, of transmitted ebola, so that we have never seen a case incubate longer than 21 under good-record-keeping conditions is significant.

That WHO page is weirdly sloppy in a few ways, actually. It seems like it may have been written by someone for whom English isn’t their first language.

304 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:26:58am

re: #303 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

Straight to the point: “So we don’t actually know what that percentage of people longer than 21 days are.”

Wonderful. So, what again has been debunked?

305 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 10:29:51am

re: #304 yoshicastmaster

Straight to the point: “So we don’t actually know what that percentage of people longer than 21 days are.”

Wonderful. So, what again has been debunked?

That Ebola has a 42 day incubation period.

Do you think AGW is happening? Do you think you can say “Yes” to that? Even though there is, of course, some percentage of statistical ‘doubt’?

306 klys  Oct 21, 2014 10:30:07am

re: #302 yoshicastmaster

But seriously, if the best math, science, whatever that we have predicts that 3-5% of ebola cases incubate longer than 21 days, then you tell me: is 21 days the maximum incubation period for ebola? I’m going with “no.”

That may reflect the difficulty in determining when exposure happened, because these are not nicely controlled studies but working with the data available on hand.

However, you may find it to be of interest that the scientists who have been studying the current outbreak are comfortable with the 21 day monitoring period:

The measured duration of the incubation period, and its variation, imply that the advice to follow case contacts for 21 days1 is appropriate.

There is also an interesting article here that looks at older data sets - but like most science, it points out that it’s very hard to identify a maximum limit because statistically people are weird, and so what the incubation period typically references is the point where the vast majority of cases will occur in.

Science is relatively allergic to absolutes. So if you want to argue pedantics, ok. I’m not going to stand in your way on that. But I’m not going to freak out either.

307 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:31:52am

re: #303 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

going to help you out, here’s one of those right wing sites and the source it points to:
wnd.com
naturalnews.com

Please debunk it for me.

Should be easy, I only skimmed it. And this is from people who think that the Big Bang is a lie from the Pit of Hell! So, fish in a barrel, right?

308 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:33:09am

re: #305 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

AGW?

309 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:36:35am

re: #306 klys

That’s nice that scientists who study the outbreak are OK with 21 days. However, health care professionals who handle the outbreak are ok with gear that doesn’t cover the neck, so I’m not going to rely on appeal to authority.

If you’re saying that I’m nitpicking, then perhaps the real problem is this article’s reliance on absolutes (” maximum incubation period for Ebola”) in order to “debunk” other sites.

Maximum incubation period does not mean 95% confidence interval to me or, I bet, the average person.

310 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 21, 2014 10:39:17am

Challenging Obdi to debunk WND and natural news as sources?

good freaking grief…

311 klys  Oct 21, 2014 10:39:34am

re: #309 yoshicastmaster

That’s nice that scientists who study the outbreak are OK with 21 days. However, health care professionals who handle the outbreak are ok with gear that doesn’t cover the neck, so I’m not going to rely on appeal to authority.

If you’re saying that I’m nitpicking, then perhaps the real problem is this article’s reliance on absolutes (” maximum incubation period for Ebola”) in order to “debunk” other sites.

Maximum incubation period does not mean 95% confidence interval to me or, I bet, the average person.

Citation needed.

That scientific evidence is considered an “appeal to authority” says an awful lot about your mindset, though.

312 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 10:39:37am

re: #308 yoshicastmaster

AGW?

Anthropogenic global warming.

And why did you link to the same article, and why are you talking about ‘right wing’ sites?

Again, that article says both:

The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease

and

Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval.

There is no link to actual statistics, no link to an actual study. The places dealing with Ebola were mostly overwhelmed while it hit, making observation difficult. The math of that matches up exactly with a mathematical predictive model, which has not been observed at other times.

You seem to keep asking the same question because you don’t like the reply: We use absolutes in talking about things that are just highly improbable all the time.

313 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:44:17am

re: #312 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

3% is highly improbable? I disagree. Just let me know when those articles are debunked. Both links work fine.

Also, “WorldNetDaily (WND) is an American web site that publishes news and associated content from the perspective of U.S. conservatives and the political right,” according to Wikipedia.

314 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 10:46:21am

re: #313 yoshicastmaster

3% is highly improbable?

There is not a 3% chance of a 42 day incubation period, even under the mathematical model there would be like a .000001% chance of that occurring. We do not know if there is a 3% chance that there’s more than a 21 day period. That is what one mathematical model says; that mathematical model may or may not be appropriate.

Can you explain what, if anything, you don’t grasp about the above paragraph?

I disagree. Just let me know when those articles are debunked. Both links work fine.

Those articles both source back to the WHO discussion post; you know that, right?

Also, “WorldNetDaily (WND) is an American web site that publishes news and associated content from the perspective of U.S. conservatives and the political right,” according to Wikipedia.

Right, but who cares? Why are you talking about the sidedness of the sites? Why is this relevant?

315 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:49:38am

re: #311 klys

Well if we’re talking about policy made based on scientific evidence, then my mindset is that I’d like to know the science. After all, doctors aren’t always good at policy. And these articles show concern about exactly that.

And for the cite, allow me to google that for you:
google.com

Also: cnn.com

The fact that this was so hard to find says blahblahblah about your mindset blah blah ad hominem mumbo jumbo.

316 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 10:51:58am

re: #314 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

Can you just post the link to the study you’re talking about. Clearly you have read something we haven’t, because you’re telling me about mathematical models and exactly what was studied. And I’m talking about right wing sites because: “Once again, the right wing sites are deliberately distorting the words of the WHO in order to cause panic about Ebola.”

Not sure what’s up with the links, they work for me.

317 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator  Oct 21, 2014 10:57:30am

re: #315 yoshicastmaster

Um. You have just confused doctors and scientists.

318 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 21, 2014 11:00:56am

jeebus…link to the WHO report is in the original post.
Apparently it’s very cleverly hidden…

319 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 11:01:31am

re: #316 yoshicastmaster

Can you just post the link to the study you’re talking about. .

What study?

Clearly you have read something we haven’t, because you’re telling me about mathematical models and exactly what was studied.

Oh, they’re just applying a common epidemiology statistical model, which assumes variance in infection such that you’ll have the 2nd and 3rd standard deviations of incubation unobserved. This is what I already explained, though. This is just a model that is generally true for diseases with low prevalence (when your N is high enough you don’t assume any unobserved cases have different data from your sample) but that doesn’t mean it’s true for any specific disease.

. And I’m talking about right wing sites because: “Once again, the right wing sites are deliberately distorting the words of the WHO in order to cause panic about Ebola.”

Okay, so are you now angry because some nutbar health sites are also distorting the words of the WHO, so it’s not just the right-wing sites? I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Even if that’s true, it is also still true that the right-wing sites are doing so.

You seem really, really mad, even though I’m talking to you perfectly straightforwards and politely. Is it really too much to ask that you do the same?

320 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 11:02:45am

re: #317 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

You’re right. Therefore those right wing sites have been debunked! Or not. Whatever.

At this point a request for a scientific study is being voted down, so I’m not concerned about looking anti-science anymore.

Also the WHO report is not a scientific study. Jeebus indeed.

321 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator  Oct 21, 2014 11:05:08am

re: #320 yoshicastmaster

Not sure, but may have been this study:

currents.plos.org

Background:
21 days has been regarded as the appropriate quarantine period for holding individuals potentially exposed to Ebola Virus (EV) to reduce risk of contagion. There does not appear to be a systematic discussion of the basis for this period.

Methods:
The prior estimates for incubation time to EV were examined, along with data on the first 9 months of the current outbreak. These provided estimates of the distribution of incubation times.

Results:
A 21 day period for quarantine may result in the release of individuals with a 0.2 - 12% risk of release prior to full opportunity for the incubation to proceed. It is suggested that a detailed cost-benefit assessment, including considering full transmission risks, needs to occur in order to determine the appropriate quarantine period for potentially exposed individuals.

322 yoshicastmaster  Oct 21, 2014 11:05:11am

re: #319 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

That’s a whole lot you know about those studies! Sounds like you’re guessing. That’s why I asked for the report.

Turns out, you are guessing!

323 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 11:06:13am

re: #322 yoshicastmaster

That’s a whole lot you know about those studies! Sounds like you’re guessing. That’s why I asked for the report.

Turns out, you are guessing!

What the fuck are you talking about? You are the one citing some study, not me.

Jesus.

324 Dead Tired  Oct 21, 2014 11:07:16am

re: #313 yoshicastmaster

3% is highly improbable? I disagree. Just let me know when those articles are debunked. Both links work fine.

Also, “WorldNetDaily (WND) is an American web site that publishes news and associated content from the perspective of U.S. conservatives and the political right,” according to Wikipedia.

Functionally it’s not. It’s an outlet for fear mongering, bigotry and religious zealotry.

325 De Kolta Chair  Oct 21, 2014 11:08:34am

To whom it may concern (and you know who you are)…

326 Dead Tired  Oct 21, 2014 11:08:41am

re: #316 yoshicastmaster

Can you just post the link to the study you’re talking about. Clearly you have read something we haven’t, because you’re telling me about mathematical models and exactly what was studied. And I’m talking about right wing sites because: “Once again, the right wing sites are deliberately distorting the words of the WHO in order to cause panic about Ebola.”

Not sure what’s up with the links, they work for me.

Although I didn’t try all that hard I couldn’t find the studies mentioned.

327 Charles Johnson  Oct 21, 2014 11:09:50am

I stand by every word of this post.

328 Dead Tired  Oct 21, 2014 11:10:32am

re: #319 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

What study?

Oh, they’re just applying a common epidemiology statistical model, which assumes variance in infection such that you’ll have the 2nd and 3rd standard deviations of incubation unobserved. This is what I already explained, though. This is just a model that is generally true for diseases with low prevalence (when your N is high enough you don’t assume any unobserved cases have different data from your sample) but that doesn’t mean it’s true for any specific disease.

Okay, so are you now angry because some nutbar health sites are also distorting the words of the WHO, so it’s not just the right-wing sites? I’m not sure what you’re saying here. Even if that’s true, it is also still true that the right-wing sites are doing so.

You seem really, really mad, even though I’m talking to you perfectly straightforwards and politely. Is it really too much to ask that you do the same?

My beef is that the WHO’s release wasn’t clear enough to prevent the right from misinterpreting their point.

329 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator  Oct 21, 2014 11:12:18am

re: #320 yoshicastmaster

Or this one. Anyway, both are mentioned in a DailyMail article.

nejm.org

330 Dead Tired  Oct 21, 2014 11:12:30am

re: #321 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

Not sure, but may have been this study:

currents.plos.org

This backs up Obdi’s points.

331 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 11:13:43am

re: #321 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

That is a perfectly reasonable paper, and it is, indeed, applying a standard epidemiological model. The conclusions are reasonable but not overwhelming:

While the 21 day quarantine value currently used may have arose from reasonable interpretation of early outbreak data, this work suggests a reconsideration is in order and that 21 days may not be sufficiently protective to public health. Further, outbreaks such as the current West Africa EBOV are presenting an opportunity for careful collection of data sufficient to revise and update (perhaps in an adaptive fashion) such recommendations. It may be that incubation time itself is a function of intensity and nature of contact, which may also need to be considered. The estimate of appropriate incubation time would need to explicitly consider the costs and benefits involved in various alternatives, which would incorporate explicit computations from transmission modeling.

Edit: I highlighted a bit that goes to what I was saying: In biology, there can be feedback loops. It might be, for example, statistically possible that if someone gets ebola and then sequesters themselves, the incubation will be longer than 21 days, but that scenario almost never happens. The feedback loop of reinfection can explain overnormalization of the data.

The author is also clear about some of the weaknesses in his study:

The distribution of incubation times for the Chowell analysis of the Uganda outbreak shows a more rapid incubation time than any of the other outbreaks.

It is clear that the method of analysis as well as choice of the form of the incubation time distribution are influential.

And he admits the data is highly problematic.

332 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator  Oct 21, 2014 11:16:31am

re: #320 yoshicastmaster

Note that in the latter the authors conclude:

The analyses in this paper can be used to inform recommendations regarding control measures. The measured duration of the incubation period, and its variation, imply that the advice to follow case contacts for 21 days1 is appropriate.

333 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 21, 2014 11:20:55am

re: #332 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

Yeah, in case I sounded too critical: This is a good article, with a well-done methodology. It is openly taking a cautious position, but even then it talks about how the risk/reward analysis has to be engaged, that even if he’s convinced you with the statistical argument we then need to re-address “So what do we do about this?”.

334 klys  Oct 21, 2014 1:43:37pm

re: #332 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

Note that in the latter the authors conclude:

He already dismissed that article as an appeal to authority.

He doesn’t really want to know the science.

335 cujo280  Oct 21, 2014 4:47:29pm

Just some additional data assuming anyone is interested in teasing out truth… which is always required regardless of your political stripes.

“If someone survives Ebola, can he or she still spread the virus?

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.”


http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/qas.html

What is the basis for the 21 days? Not sure if anyone as asked the question but here is an explanation.

http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/on-the-quarantine-period-for-ebola-virus/

What does that mean? Basically up to 12% of the cases after 21 days may still be infected.

The CDC, WHO and every other government agency does a cost risk analysis and then pulls a number that “they” can live with i.e. “an acceptable loss”. Somewhere between 21 and 42 days is their acceptable loss of life give the costs to save them. Are we all on the same page now?

336 klys  Oct 21, 2014 5:04:22pm

re: #335 cujo280

Just some additional data assuming anyone is interested in teasing out truth… which is always required regardless of your political stripes.

“If someone survives Ebola, can he or she still spread the virus?

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.”


http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/qas.html

What is the basis for the 21 days? Not sure if anyone as asked the question but here is an explanation.

http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/on-the-quarantine-period-for-ebola-virus/

What does that mean? Basically up to 12% of the cases after 21 days may still be infected.

The CDC, WHO and every other government agency does a cost risk analysis and then pulls a number that “they” can live with i.e. “an acceptable loss”. Somewhere between 21 and 42 days is their acceptable loss of life give the costs to save them. Are we all on the same page now?

That second article has been linked multiple times in this thread.

That same article also points out that:

Therefore there is no quarantine time that will provide absolute assurance of no residual risk from contagion.

I guess we should just quarantine anyone exposed to ebola indefinitely, then. If we want to be certain.

Also, welcome hatchling. I invite you to join us upstairs, as posting on a dead thread that has seen some substantial trolling is generally not a good place to start.

337 Backwoods_Sleuth  Oct 21, 2014 5:07:06pm

re: #336 klys

That second article has been linked multiple times in this thread.

That same article also points out that:

I guess we should just quarantine anyone exposed to ebola indefinitely, then. If we want to be certain.

Just brand their foreheads with an “E”…

//////

338 Cheeseland  Oct 21, 2014 9:46:01pm

I apologize if this has already been posted. This article in the New England Journal of Medicine caught my eye last week and it seem to be associated with the same WHO data. They mention the mean incubation time of about 11 days and that “Approximately 95% of the case patients had symptom onset within 21 days after exposure (Figure 3A)” which they also recommend as the follow up period.

In the supplement to the article on page S7 and S8 they describe several ways they calculated the incubation based on number of exposure and delays from symptoms.

They also present graphs in table 3 with number of infections established with a particular exposure based on roughly 700 cases traced in the first 9 months of this outbreak. The vast majority of cases occurred within 21 days. A few cases were seen between 22 and 30 days and a handful between 30 and 40 days. They looked through 42 days and did not see any cases at 40, 41, or 42 days.

So yes, they report actual cases after 21 days. Very few but measurable. They consider someone unlikely to be infected if it has been more than 21 days but not impossible, and they consider a country to be Ebola free if 42 days have passed since the last patient has died or cleared the virus from his or her blood.

N Engl J Med 2014; 371:1481-1495October 16, 2014DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100

re: #265 Fairly Sure I’m Still Obdicut

There has never been an observed case of ebola incubating for more than 21 days. Mathematical models predict that a certain number of cases will exceed that incubation, because of cross-infection or whatever the hell other reason. I’m leery of the West African study because 42 is exactly 21, which is just too coincidental.

It is possible that in very rare cases the disease can incubate for longer than 21 days. It is more likely that it is not actually incubating, but that the symptoms are swallowed up in other symptoms—chronic alcoholics, for example, tend to ‘incubate’ late because they can’t separate out disease problems from other problems.

So what we have here is a problem with terminology: 21 days is the maximum observed incubation period. We’ve never seen Ebola take longer than that, in any time where we solidly knew the timeline of exposure. Statistics says it’s very likely that that 21 day barrier is sometimes breached, but absent an actual case, we can’t really say.

339 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 22, 2014 4:30:55am

They don’t report actual cases past 21 days, no:

The incubation period was estimated retrospectively (by having patients with confirmed cases recall the likely source of infection),
…
We recognize, however, that data are being collected under extreme conditions, and the top priorities are patient care, contact tracing, and limiting transmission in the community, rather than epidemiologic investigations.

Which is why:

The measured duration of the incubation period, and its variation, imply that the advice to follow case contacts for 21 days1 is appropriate.

340 [deleted]  Oct 22, 2014 4:56:09am
341 Fairly Sure I'm Still Obdicut  Oct 22, 2014 5:06:15am

re: #340 LGFBlows

Or you could read the posts actually addressing the science.

342 Dr. Matt  Oct 22, 2014 5:06:39am

re: #340 LGFBlows

HuffPo nor Tulsi Gabbard are experts on Ebola. Are you pretending to be a clueless fucktard?

343 Vicious Piebola  Oct 22, 2014 5:07:49am

re: #342 Dr. Matt

HuffPo nor Tulsi Gabbard are experts on Ebola. Are you pretending to be a clueless fucktard?

It’s not pretending, it actually is a clueless fucktard

344 wheat-dogghazi-bola  Oct 22, 2014 6:11:49am

Jeez, little did I suspect my attempt at explaining statistics-speak would generate such rampant misunderstanding.

The distribution curve is a mathematical model, generated by a very well known and well used equation. Despite being a model, it does a remarkably good job at predicting the distribution of a random sample across a range of values. (Hence the name.) In trying to make my explanation simple, I led some people to misinterpret the mathematics.

The bell curve is used to estimate the probability of something happening. It is not deterministic. In other words, the curve does not *require* reality (data) to generate exactly 2.15% extremely high or extremely low values. There may be none at all, in fact.

WHO based its statements on (1) the available sample of ebola victims’ incubation periods (2) the expectation that these periods are random and thus the bell curve can be applied and (3) every other random measurement (human heights, for example) seems to follow the bell curve. So, if we had a sample of 10,000, the curve would lead us to expect about 215 people could possibly have incubation periods outside the 21-day period. It does not require there be exactly 215 people. There may be in fact none.

Now, medical people who are way smarter than I about such stuff look at the available data, the mathematically expected behavior, transmission rates, population density and everything else, and on those criteria state that we would expect that 95% of ebola victims have incubation periods between 1 and 21 days, as indeed seems to be true. If the incubation periods follow a normal distribution, 98% of the incubation periods would be expected to fall within 1 and 42 days. And nearly 100% would fall within 1 and 84 days.

These are probabilities. They are not predictions of future events.

So, it is totally wrong to say the incubation period *for everyone* is 42 days, so every ebola victim has to be in quarantine for that long a time. That would be like saying all men are 7 feet tall, so every men’s clothing store should only carry Big & Tall sizes.

If ebola were an airborne disease, and if ebola victims were still contagious after recovery, then maybe keeping them in isolation for 42 days would make sense. But, ebola is not that easy to catch and recovered ebola patients are no longer contagious (the virus is dead, Jim), then squawking “There’s a 42-day incubation period! We’re being lied to!!” is just dead wrong.

345 Rightwingconspirator  Oct 22, 2014 6:25:45am

re: #340 LGFBlows

See ya in another ten years or so! :-P

It’s okay no need to hurry like that.

346 wrenchwitch  Oct 22, 2014 8:34:05am

re: #340 LGFBlows

I am devastated at the criticism of huffpo. I have not read anything there in a few years, but I was about to. And the mention of LGF having been different 10 years ago: also devastating. Oh, wait. I’ve been here that long. But it’s a worthless gatekeeper site! So irrelevant. What would we do without hatchlings pointing this out every so often.


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