Here we are at the last weekend before the most important presidential election I can ever recall, so here’s some supremely tasty blues from Joe. What a killer tone he extracts from that ES-335.
@Green_Footballs @noto1025 @seanhannity johnson your not the only idiot to stupid to understand it.
— tim obrien (@timobriensr) November 5, 2016
😂 “to stupid” LOL! @timobriensr @noto1025 @seanhannity
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
It’s just astounding how many right wingers are swallowing this idiotic “Spirit Cooking” story without even thinking.
I live for tweets like this. pic.twitter.com/Uei5Tr3Lkt
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
re: #1 Charles Johnson
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It’s just astounding how many right wingers are swallowing this idiotic “Spirit Cooking” story without even thinking.
Also, “your not”. These people.
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
RT if you see yourself on the sign pic.twitter.com/gD7i6L5EsW
— mohamad ali (@moesdeph) November 5, 2016
re: #4 BigPapa
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
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It looks like a list of ambitions and desires, whether he’s admitted them to himself or not.
“Nobody Loves Me But My Mother”
Closing line in the upcoming Trump post loss speech? (He won’t concede)
re: #5 wrenchwench
It looks like a list of ambitions and desires, whether he’s admitted them to himself or not.
I’ve failed at yoga pants. But I have some time left.
re: #7 Frankie Five Angels
Cutters?
Hard-line Christian fundamentalists aren’t big on empathy. People who self-abuse are seen as vile, self-centered assholes, instead of victims deserving of a sympathetic ear.
re: #4 BigPapa
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
“RT if you see yourself on the sign”
I’m number one! I’m number one!!
re: #4 BigPapa
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
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… rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.
re: #11 dangerman
… rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.
But not the Irish!///
i just read some comments on the WSJ “non-endorsement editorial”
yeah i know its “the wsj”
and i know it’s 2016 and things are they way they are
those people are delusional loons (the editorial writers and the commenters both)
i want the reality based (h/t to rbs) world back
i am confident of an hrc victory
after than i dont think we’re going back to anyplace sane
re: #15 dangerman
i just read some comments on the WSJ “non-endorsement editorial”
yeah i know its “the wsj”
and i know it’s 2016 and things are they way they arethose people are delusional loons (the editorial writers and the commenters both)
i want the reality based (h/t to rbs) world back
i am confident of an hrc victory
after than i dont think we’re going back to anyplace sane
The wingnuts will completely lose their minds. This “spirit-cooking” thing is just a preview of where they’re headed.
re: #9 thedopefishlives
Hard-line Christian fundamentalists aren’t big on empathy. People who self-abuse are seen as vile, self-centered assholes, instead of victims deserving of a sympathetic ear.
I thought this guy had something against those who race bikes in Indianapolis. (Old movie…)
re: #17 wrenchwench
I thought this guy had something against those who race bikes in Indianapolis. (Old movie…)
The one that gets me is the yoga pants. I see nothing wrong with them. Nothing wrong at all…. *drool*
Latino Electorate On Track For Historic Turnout In 2016
According to the latest data from our national tracking poll, Latino Decisions projects that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote in 2016. This estimate represents a three percent to five percent increase over the 2012 Latino turnout rate which, coupled with the dramatic growth of the age-eligible Latino population, will yield between 1.9 million and 3.5 million additional Latinos voters in 2016 compared to the 11.2 million who voted four years ago.
Latino Decisions also projects that 79 percent of Latinos will vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 18 percent for Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the remaining three percent voting for other candidates. Clinton’s projected share is higher than both Latino Decisions’ estimated 75 percent Latino vote share and 71 percent exit poll share Democrat Barack Obama received during his 2012 re-election bid.
re: #17 wrenchwench
I thought this guy had something against those who race bikes in Indianapolis. (Old movie…)
+1 for the oblique movie ref
re: #20 BigPapa
That’s going to be huge and I think might just be enough to push her to victory. I think the polls have underestimated Latinos and I think they will prove why Clinton will emerge victorious in Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.
re: #18 thedopefishlives
The one that gets me is the yoga pants. I see nothing wrong with them. Nothing wrong at all…. *drool*
other than the polyester aspect, are yoga pants mentioned in the bible?
re: #24 dangerman
other than the polyester aspect, are yoga pants mentioned in the bible?
Something along the lines of, “Thou shalt not dress like a slut and show off one’s naughty bits,” is the usual excuse. Although funny enough, I never really saw that in the Bible, either. Modest dress is addressed mostly tangentially.
re: #26 dangerman
that would be more than 2.5m votes for clinton and maybe .5 for trump
Yeah she’s going to smash him with Hispanic voters. And honestly it’s going to be a big problem for the GOP in the future as the HIspanic population grows.
re: #19 dangerman
as i’ve not been paying attention has anyone seen any similarly musically based trump ad?
Unless he’s stealing music from actual musicians (most of whom have told him to go fuck himself) he’s kind of limited to the offerings of Ted Nugent et al.
Katy Perry not only supports Hillary, but has done actual door-knocking for her.
Oh, and this isn’t the last spot from the Hillary campaign.
Closing positive: Hillary Clinton’s final ad doesn’t even mention Donald Trump.https://t.co/Oq9L1XSGbv
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) November 5, 2016
Catchy, uplifting “Roar” ad will not be our last. Two-minute spot coming Monday night. Also positivehttps://t.co/Z4nzZQZZoZ
— Brian Fallon (@brianefallon) November 5, 2016
You don’t get to nominate Donald Trump and then expect the biggest voter group he scapegoated to forget about it. I don’t think women voters are going to forget either.
re: #4 BigPapa
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
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Props that they can spell “masturbators” correctly—very rare among RWNJs…but then they can’t spell “idolators”?
Hillary getting less of the PoC vote than last election isn’t something to be surprised about. I’m sure PoC were highly energized to vote for him. Breitbrats are celebrating that PoC are now double Romney’s support, which means essentially Hillary is still going to dominate the PoC vote.
Then there’s the female vote… LOL.
I don’t post much — forgive a rant. Placing it behind spoiler tags because it’s rather long-winded.
With all the talk about “rigged elections” by Trump, I’ve been trying to think of all the ways in which the GOP has tried to rig elections in their favor in recent years:
1) Legislatively weakening labor unions (to damage Democrats’ fundraising capabilities / weaken democratic support)
2) Passing Citizens United (to open the floodgates to GOP fundraising)
3) Gerrymandering (to give GOP politicians a built-in advantage)
4) Voter ID (to block Democratic-leaning voters from voting)
5) Eliminating early & extended voting / mandating fewer voting locations / purging voter rolls / physically blocking doorways at voting locations and telling early voters to “shut up and go home” (to decrease voter turnout, to the GOP’s benefit)
6) Record-breaking Congressional filibusters/obstructionism (to damage Democrats’ image and enthusiasm / increase voter frustrations / weaken the economic recovery under Obama)
7) Right-leaning SCOTUS deciding the outcome of the 2000 election.
8) Blocking judicial / SCOTUS nominations (to prevent a liberal majority / protect right-wing anti-democratic laws).
9) Blocking amnesty and inciting racism/bigotry (to intimidate minority voters from voting / help facilitate the potential deportation of millions of minorities — physically expelling potential left-leaning voters from the country)
10) Cutting school funding (under-performing school children are statistically correlated with greater prevalence of racism, homophobia, and conservative authoritarian ideology as adults)
11) Publicly inviting Russia to hack / cyber-attack the Democratic Party and release damaging information.
12) Calling for the jailing of democratic political opponents (and their lawyers).
13) Calling for the assassination of democratic political opponents.
14) Procuring and prematurely leaking information from a highly-politicized FBI to damage political opponents days before a national election.
I could keep going, but it gets more nit-picky from there. Rumors of flyers sent to democratic districts with incorrect voting dates/locations, Diebold voting machine misbehavior, ballots discovered in dumpsters, etc. I’ve no way of ascertaining the veracity of such claims.
Point is, if it weren’t for the items in the above list, I suspect the GOP would have already gone the way of the dodo. The Republican Party has effectively been on life-support to maintain power for a while now, and they remain obstinate while demographics continue to shift out of their favor. Hopefully our country will soon reach the threshold beyond which all of the above isn’t enough to save them, and the GOP will be forced to fumigate and reorganize their party into something more sensible — until then, they will continue to destroy the very fabric of our nation along with themselves.
re: #25 thedopefishlives
Something along the lines of, “Thou shalt not dress like a slut and show off one’s naughty bits,” is the usual excuse. Although funny enough, I never really saw that in the Bible, either. Modest dress is addressed mostly tangentially.
modest dress used to be defined as merely a fig leaf…
re: #29 HappyWarrior
You don’t get to nominate Donald Trump and then expect the biggest voter group he scapegoated to forget about it. I don’t think women voters are going to forget either.
We aren’t.
re: #33 Backwoods_Sleuth
modest dress used to be defined as merely a fig leaf…
Going along with right-wing nutjobs’ idea of “white American Jesus”, they seem to have adopted Victorian ideals of clothing as the standard for modesty.
re: #35 thedopefishlives
Going along with right-wing nutjobs’ idea of “white American Jesus”, they seem to have adopted Victorian ideals of clothing as the standard for modesty.
those darned table legs, too…
;)
I just made a comment in the last thread about the Hillary campaign’s great organization of workers and how they took the crowd at a Columbus rally right after the Democrat Convention and made sure they tried to connect every attendee to the campaign.
That got me to looking at the images I shot that day. They made me feel good about that event in retrospect and how maybe Ohio is going to do the right thing.
Anyway, a couple from that day…the last one got me thinking it would make a nice painting.
A good look at the crowd gathered at Columbus Clinton Bus Rally 2016. Sorry Trumpers, a lot of white people like Clinton too…maybe Ohio does the right thing.re: #32 Insanity
I don’t post much — forgive a rant. Placing it behind spoiler tags because it’s rather long-winded.
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That’s what Pages are for. You could even flesh it out a bit, if you got anything left in there. Don’t hide it! The last paragraph will become a book, with any luck.
re: #37 ObserverArt
We had first frost this morning. Did you?
Military Members Donating Way More Cash to Clinton Than to Trump
That’s a little surprising to me. 80% of <$200 donations went to Clinton.
re: #39 Backwoods_Sleuth
We had first frost this morning. Did you?
That reminds me. Should probably finish winterizing the house!
re: #34 Backwoods_Sleuth
We aren’t.
Sorry women, you have to save men from making a giant mistake. Again.
Conway with a remarkable statement to reporters: Christie “made a good exercise in judgment in firing the two people who were convicted.” pic.twitter.com/eoIj8952A8
— Sopan Deb (@SopanDeb) November 5, 2016
re: #32 Insanity
I don’t post much — forgive a rant. Placing it behind spoiler tags because it’s rather long-winded.
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a good job
any smart businessman person knows that the future is in expanding the pie, or creating a new pie.
fighting over slivers of the existing pie is not a winning strategy. even in saturated markets you have to create new ideas and products.
the gop fears making the pie bigger
they fear not enough people will want what theyre selling
it’s easier to tear the other side down rather than be confident in elevating yourself and your message
its loser thinking
re: #39 Backwoods_Sleuth
We had first frost this morning. Did you?
No, Columbus got down to 39°. However some towns in the area did hit 29° and did frost over. Long term forecast doesn’t have us close to freezing yet.
re: #44 dangerman
a good job
any smart business
manperson knows that the future is in expanding the pie, or creating a new pie.
fighting over slivers of the existing pie is not a winning strategy. even in saturated markets you have to create new ideas and products.the gop fears making the pie bigger
they fear not enough people will want what theyre sellingit’s easier to tear the other side down rather than be confident in elevating yourself and your message
its loser thinking
More pie! Also, some empanadas would be good.
re: #17 wrenchwench
I thought this guy had something against those who race bikes in Indianapolis. (Old movie…)
Bloomington!
re: #45 ObserverArt
No, Columbus got down to 39°. However some towns in the area did hit 29° and did frost over. Long term forecast doesn’t have us close to freezing yet.
We hit 30F around 8 am, which really surprised me. I mean it just dropped like a freaking rock (34F at 6 am) and stayed below freezing until almost 10 am.
😂 @formerlythetim @ErichHuwar @seanhannity
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
Tracker catches guy shouting “Lee Harvey Oswald where are you when we need you?” re, Clinton w/in earshot of Ryan https://t.co/G7B3ecVT5N
— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) November 5, 2016
re: #47 Barefoot Grin
Bloomington!
Thank you for the correction. It’s been too long since I’ve seen that. (And I’ve seen it twice, decades apart.)
re: #43 Backwoods_Sleuth
Great Job, Governor Christie!!
Don’t Count #Connecticut out. Signs all over the state for @realDonaldTrump! Very little for Hillary. pic.twitter.com/rAFw2xqfMl
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) November 5, 2016
Just FYI, you can count Connecticut out. https://t.co/59l6VUeqsf
— Philip Bump (@pbump) November 5, 2016
Sheer genius. pic.twitter.com/Oq7fzcHj7i
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
Trump spox Jason Miller just on MSNBC & couldn’t refute details of AP report that Melania Trump illegally worked in US b4 getting work visa
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) November 5, 2016
Trump surrogates reduced to claiming more signs on lawns for Trump than for Clinton. Akin to Trump touting his crowds as proof he is ahead.
— Tony Schwartz (@tonyschwartz) November 5, 2016
I. Am. Shocked.
EXCLUSIVE: Donald Trump’s billionaire-backed super-PAC is also paying Rudy Giuliani’s law firms: https://t.co/vhhm46Bhyo pic.twitter.com/tND236dzbR
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) November 5, 2016
Make America Number 1, the pro-Trump super-PAC controlled by hedge-fund billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah, has paid law firms associated with Rudy Giuliani $563,003 in 2015 and 2016.
The PAC, originally called Keep the Promise 1, supported Ted Cruz before shifting to Donald Trump after he secured the Republican nomination this spring. It began paying Bracewell & Giuliani for legal and compliance services in September of 2015, making $336,495 in payments until February 14, 2016. It stopped using Bracewell a couple of weeks after Giuliani left the firm in January.
Ted Cruz dropped out of the Republican presidential field on May 3. Sometime that month, Rebekah Mercer and Kellyanne Conway, who led the PAC when it was backing the Texas senator and is now Trump’s campaign manager, had lunch with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. There, the Washington Post reported, “Ivanka and Rebekah bonded over parenting young children and being the daughters of hard-charging, successful fathers, according to people familiar with their conversation.”
Also in May, on the 12th, the PAC retained Giuliani’s new firm, Greenberg & Traurig, initially paying $99,470 for legal and compliance services. In June, the PAC changed its name and aligned itself squarely with Trump. On its website, the group described itself as “supporting conservative principles, upholding the rule of law, and opposing ethically challenged candidates… It’s (sic) first special project entitled, ‘Defeat Crooked Hillary’, will shed light on what the Clinton’s (sic) want to keep in the dark.”
On July 22, the PAC paid Greenberg $9,698 for “legal consulting services.” That payment came the day after the Republican National Convention, which Giuliani spoke at and attended with his wife. If the payment had anything to do with covering the expenses of a convention speaker, that might well violate the federal guidelines — including operating independently of a campaign — that Giuliani’s firm was supposed to oversee as part of its compliance services.
Three payments in September and October tallied $118,340, also for “legal consulting services.”
re: #32 Insanity
Great comment! You should make that into a Page. There’s actually a button in the top line of your comment that lets you do that very easily - the green button with the arrow pointing up to the left.
re: #11 dangerman
NOW GO DO THAT VOODOO THAT YOU DO SO WELLLLLLLLLLLLLL
re: #4 BigPapa
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
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Hanging out with the guy wearing a Deadpool tshirt = lolz.
re: #54 Charles Johnson
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It’s frightening how they make up this crap in their own heads, project it out their eyeballs, and think they’re looking at the real world.
@Green_Footballs @formerlythetim @ErichHuwar this says it all pic.twitter.com/Vejd2EX5aH
— Jamie Evans (@jparkere3) November 5, 2016
Conservative Christianity at its best! @jparkere3 @formerlythetim @ErichHuwar https://t.co/PXJecP7HSd
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
re: #54 Charles Johnson
When he says he has a firm grasp of reality, he’said telling you he named his dick “Reality.”
re: #63 Belafon
When he says he has a firm grasp of reality, he’said telling you he named his dick “Reality.”
That needs to be tweeted.
re: #57 Backwoods_Sleuth
Speaking of “pay to play”…
Of course you have no shame, that goes without saying. You’re a Trump fan. 😂 @formerlythetim @jparkere3 @ErichHuwar
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
u mad bro? @formerlythetim @jparkere3 @ErichHuwar
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
A handful of people still voting third party like: pic.twitter.com/LDOVUxOkwx
— M.S. Bellows, Jr. (@msbellows) November 5, 2016
The biggest yawn from the smallest bulldog pic.twitter.com/KFA2fn2snW
— Baby Animals (@BabyAnimalPics) November 2, 2016
re: #58 Charles Johnson
Great comment! You should make that into a Page. There’s actually a button in the top line of your comment that lets you do that very easily - the green button with the arrow pointing up to the left.
Will that work despite the private tag?
re: #70 Charles Johnson
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Quivers down my backbone
I got the shakes in my thigh bone
I got the shivers in my knee bone
Shakin’ all overrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…
This spirit cooking thing is super LULZ. Gas on the wingnut ethers.
re: #4 BigPapa
I’m in the bigly troubles again:
[Embedded content]
Yoga Pants? Or Yoga Pants Cutters?
If boxers count as yoga pants, I’ve got five. What do I win?
re: #71 wrenchwench
Will that work despite the private tag?
HGWiICnZWlcTLiJWYAXvoUWJpTUz3vddE1IY9EicWPpvzHu3KiMpY66zyHqjN2Jk9h7wBP9u1Hg=
re: #71 wrenchwench
Yep, it works, but you have to remove the private tags in the Pages window.
re: #73 BigPapa
This spirit cooking thing is super LULZ. Gas on the wingnut ethers.
I really need to write up some fake emails, claiming Hillary used Satanic time travel to assassinate Ronald Reagan and give Confederate battle plans to General Grant, then stick ‘em on Twitter and see if the lunatics bite…
— emilio porompompero (@PoromEmilio) November 5, 2016
Nate Silver is unskewing polls — all of them. And he’s panicking the world. https://t.co/Ig471ixSK6
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 5, 2016
This article is so fucking idiotic and irresponsible. https://t.co/VNp02CvxlI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
re: #78 teleskiguy
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That reminds me:
Tiny neonate Northern Pacific Rattlesnake at a den I found in Southern Oregon pic.twitter.com/knfnygaaRF
— Bryan D. Hughes (@rattlesnakeguy) November 5, 2016
Brought up the whole hatchling/neonate question for me. I found a forum:
A lot of people who post here use the term “Neonate” for any young snake, from newborn to almost adult. Back in the dark ages, before the term “neonate” was invented, we would refer to newborn snakes that came from eggs as “hatchlings”, and those that were live born as “birthlings”, or as “babys”, or as “very young”, or as “infants”.
Older, non-adult snakes were called “young”.
Adult snakes were called “adults”.
In humans, a neonate is an infant up to 4 weeks old. After that, it becomes a baby.
I believe we are using the term neonate the wrong way to define “any” young snake. I think it should be used only for new born snakes, that are very, very young. Young snakes should be called something else, like “young” ? But, that is just my opinion. Could be one of those things that came into use along with the metric system, and is too late to change. It is just that when folks use the term neonate here, you really dont’ know if they mean new born, or young, or whatever? What does everyone else think about this?
Best Regards JohnZ
So I could say, ‘Welcome, neonate.’
re: #80 goddamnedfrank
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They say it’s always least-calm before the storm pic.twitter.com/JKZf4ulCgT
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 5, 2016
re: #80 goddamnedfrank
I see Silver has already responded. Anyway, the accusation of “unskewing” is a hoot. Next thing Grim will say that all pollsters unskew the polls by weighting them (i.e. making certain assumptions).
Polling aggregation fight!
— Matthew Reichbach (@fbihop) November 5, 2016
Three days before Election Day, Trump says, in Wilmington, he stills “dream[s]” of fighting Joe Biden, says he has a better education too. pic.twitter.com/BHdGUTLIS8
— Sopan Deb (@SopanDeb) November 5, 2016
re: #87 Stanley Sea
That was a very well crafted ad. I hope it works.
The silliness of Dean Chambers’ ajdustments was that they weren’t based on any sane data whatsoever.
The adjustments are not wrong by themselves. They can be wrong or right in each individual case. If you wanna argue with the adjustments, address the evidence for or against undertaking them.
There is no magic in “raw numbers”.
My twitter feed is full of #noDAPL, but this one is different:
So close! Less than $400 away from $2.6k goal!! https://t.co/Zza35PPzc6 pic.twitter.com/SLrom9vRx1
— Margari Aziza (@Margari_Aziza) November 5, 2016
re: #88 Backwoods_Sleuth
Biden should challenge Trump to a mile run to benefit a veterans charity.
re: #77 scottslemmons
I really need to write up some fake emails, claiming Hillary used Satanic time travel to assassinate Ronald Reagan and give Confederate battle plans to General Grant, then stick ‘em on Twitter and see if the lunatics bite…
?
Latest Wikileaks revelation: Clinton once chanted “We’ve got spirit, yes we do!” at a HS football game.
Obviously witchcraft was afoot.— Kragar (@Kragar_LGF) November 5, 2016
re: #90 Nyet
The silliness of Dean Chambers’ ajdustments was that they weren’t based on any sane data whatsoever.
The adjustments are not wrong by themselves. They can be wrong or write in each individual case. If you wanna argue with the adjustments, address the evidence for or against undertaking them.
There is no magic in “raw numbers”.
I agree with that. And I’ll note that Nate hasn’t been saying Clinton is going to lose, just talking raw percentages. I think there are other factors that favor Clinton but I think some have been way too hostile on Silver and are resorting to shooting the messager.
I don’t think Trump can go a single stump speech without whining about something but go ahead Trump supporters whine some more about how this generation is full of complainers while you support a man who had everything in his life handed to him complaining about everything.
re: #93 dangerman
?
Yeah, should be ‘whether’, not ‘if’.
/pet peeve, but not what you meant, I think.
re: #93 dangerman
?
Maybe the challenge would be to see how outlandish I could get before they’d finally decide I’d gone too far and given the gag away…
re: #95 HappyWarrior
And it’s not like Silver doesn’t state his assumptions openly.
Disagree with them? No problem. But accusations of “unskewing” are just poisoning the well, a dishonest tactic.
re: #99 scottslemmons
Maybe the challenge would be to see how outlandish I could get before they’d finally decide I’d gone too far and given the gag away…
now yer talkin’
re: #98 wrenchwench
Yeah, should be ‘whether’, not ‘if’.
/pet peeve, but not what you meant, I think.
right. twas not a grammar thing
re: #99 scottslemmons
They’re buying spirit cooking. You could convince them that she breeds Smurfs in her spare time.
Not just an issue in elections models. Failure to understand how risks are correlated is part of what led to the 2007/8 financial crisis.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016
My critics are just like the people who cancelled Firefly and killed Jesus.
Angry Nate Silver is the best. https://t.co/Nm8Zuc4hOW— Frank & Steinly (@goddamnedfrank) November 5, 2016
Has Trump himself yet grabbed for the satanic shtick in one of his rallies? He’s bit on every other chunk of chum in the water.
re: #100 Nyet
And it’s not like Silver doesn’t state his assumptions openly.
Disagree with them? No problem. But accusations of “unskewing” are just poisoning the well, a dishonest tactic.
Right. I think it’s just misunderstood when Nate’s map says 50% Clinton, 50% Trump for a certain state. He’s saying he feels it’s a 50-50 chance who wins that state. Now, of course we can disagree with that but I don’t think he’s unskewing.
Nate has his reasons for doing things as he does. He cannot come up with a better argument for dismissing some polls out of hand, than he can for keeping all polls in. You don’t throw out outliers just because they’re outliers. You just hope and expect that the bulk of the data will be sufficiently solid that the outliers won’t push your conclusion too far from the truth.
There’s also a case to be made for choosing either a certain set of high-quality pollsters, or a minimum quality standard for inclusion, PROVIDED you set those criteria beforehand and not on the fly because they produce the result you want.
Everyone who does this has a different model, but they’re all just models. None of them is reality. The designer of the model studies the variables and how they’ve looked in previous elections, and chooses the ones they deem important, and weights them according to their understanding of previous data. Every model designer thinks his is best, and they’re all logically defensible. But in the end, again, they’re all just models, and none of them is reality.
Nate Silver and Sam Wang ended up with pretty much the same accuracy in 2012, and both see Clinton winning. What differs is the uncertainty. And because there’s only one test of reality every 4 years, there’s no way to determine whose level of uncertainty is correct.
It’s also worth remembering that although we treat a 95% confidence interval as if every outcome within it is equally probable, that’s not really how it works. It’s a distribution.
re: #100 Nyet
And it’s not like Silver doesn’t state his assumptions openly.
Disagree with them? No problem. But accusations of “unskewing” are just poisoning the well, a dishonest tactic.
I think Nate’s model is over-engineered and introduces a lot of unnecessary noise and volatility that’s been causing his model to be an outlier this season.
re: #79 BigPapa
Hillary has Bey, Jay-Z, and Katy Perry? Trump has this:
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He also has a really dumb ad that just aired during the Arkansas-Florida game. It’s about the phones she supposedly smashed in the process of the email argle-bargle, mixed with completely unsupported headlines about how she’s endangered national security.
With “reenactments.”
Honestly, I think Hillary ought to wield a sledgehammer for her victory speech.
Heading downtown to a Tim Kaine rally. He has Jon Bon Jovi with him. Tried to get my friends interested in going and all of them replied they’re not really into Bon Jovi. That really wasn’t the point of going but whatever! At least they’re all voting HRC.
re: #107 Blind Frog Belly White
This is basically what it comes down to. Models are just computer approximations; they are not gospel. They are not proof of anything, nor are they guaranteed outcomes. Too many times, I see people attacking the models as if, by debunking the models, they can disprove the theory the models are testing.
re: #95 HappyWarrior
I agree with that. And I’ll note that Nate hasn’t been saying Clinton is going to lose, just talking raw percentages. I think there are other factors that favor Clinton but I think some have been way too hostile on Silver and are resorting to shooting the messager.
i think the “who will win the presidency” page is focusing too much attention on the % chance of winning. it starts with that
and thus removes the focus from just below - the predicted electoral count and the forecast change graph.
in fact i’d say the popular vote shouldnt be even with the electoral though i understand why it’s laid out that way
if the electoral predictions are accurate, then the “chances of winning” percentages arent helpful. the chances of willing should be presented with the “what to expect from the electoral college” histogram which is way further down the page.
did i make any sense at all? odds are i think i did.
It’s just one model of many.
No need to freakout over it.
re: #110 ninja cat
Heading downtown to a Tim Kaine rally. He has Jon Bon Jovi with him. Tried to get my friends interested in going and all of them replied they’re not really into Bon Jovi. That really wasn’t the point of going but whatever! At least they’re all voting HRC.
We do have the better musicians. I still remember my Dad joking with me how glad he was Clinton won in ‘92 because he knew Bill would have had a better Inauguration Day line up of musicians. He took me to the Mall that day. I was only 5 so I don’t remember it but it was cool to be able to experience it. Bill was teh first boomer President and a known music aficionado so Dad was naturally excited.
re: #115 Varek Raith
It’s just one model of many.
No need to freakout over it.
It’s such a great model Trump will screw it.
re: #103 lockjawcanbefun
They’re buying spirit cooking. You could convince them that she breeds Smurfs in her spare time.
colbert made one up the other night - something like the clintons rented the floor below trump in the tower so they could eaves drop.
then about a full minute later he says - i just made that up and you all bought it….
Here’s the best criticism you can make of Nate’s current model and methodology, he’s not actually predicting jack shit. Seriously, can you even imagine a halfway plausible outcome on Tuesday that he won’t take credit for predicting? He’s made his prognostication so completely wishy washy and vague that no matter what happens he’s going to claim the outcome vindicates him, and that in a word is gutless.
Say what you will about the other statistical aggregators they’re at least putting their reputations on the line if the outcome is wildly off from the odds they give.
re: #115 Varek Raith
It’s just one model of many.
No need to freakout over it.
Yep. I still do enjoy reading 538 though. They have some interesting discussions.
re: #119 goddamnedfrank
Here’s the best criticism you can make of Nate’s current model and methodology, he’s not actually predicting jack shit. Seriously, can you even imagine a halfway likely outcome on Tuesday that he won’t take credit for predicting? He’s made his prognostication so completely wishy washy and vague that not matter what happens he’s going to claim the outcome vindicates him, and that in a word is gutless.
Say what you will about the other statistical aggregators they’re at least putting their reputations on the line if the outcome is wildly off from the odds they give.
He’ll be 50-50 on election day.
/
re: #120 HappyWarrior
Yep. I still do enjoy reading 538 though. They have some interesting discussions.
His sports models are also pretty solid, incorporating a much better mechanism than the traditional models based on lower-level statistics.
re: #100 Nyet
And it’s not like Silver doesn’t state his assumptions openly.
Disagree with them? No problem. But accusations of “unskewing” are just poisoning the well, a dishonest tactic.
Well, fundamentally, giving two-significant-digit probability predictions on a result that, by definition, cannot be repeated is a mug’s game. The only acceptable point of view here is Bayesian, and from that position Silver and the others are basically engaging in a meaningless prior-waving contest.
Edit: sorry, three significant digit.
re: #29 HappyWarrior
You don’t get to nominate Donald Trump and then expect the biggest voter group he scapegoated to forget about it. I don’t think women voters are going to forget either.
After nominating Barry Goldwater, the Republicans paid for that with black voters for 52 years and counting, although they’ve certainly poured enough gas on that fire to keep it burning bright.
After supporting Proposition 187, California Republicans have lost 3/4 of the Hispanic vote in every election for 22 years while their party withered to a rump.
After insulting Hispanics nationwide…
re: #122 thedopefishlives
His sports models are also pretty solid, incorporating a much better mechanism than the traditional models based on lower-level statistics.
I personally find sports much harder to predict than elections. But eevn with that said, I should emphasize that Nate wasn’t incorrect when he said a Cubs comeback was unlikely. Most teams up 3-1 in a series will win especially if they had some of the variables the Indians had going in their favor. Now personally I think Nate sort of underrated the Cubs chances of coming back- Chicago was a 100+ win team this year, had the offense to go on a three game hot streak, etc but that doesn’t mean Silver was wrong to say it was unlikely.
re: #116 HappyWarrior
We do have the better musicians. I still remember my Dad joking with me how glad he was Clinton won in ‘92 because he knew Bill would have had a better Inauguration Day line up of musicians. He took me to the Mall that day. I was only 5 so I don’t remember it but it was cool to be able to experience it. Bill was teh first boomer President and a known music aficionado so Dad was naturally excited.
first (and only) pres to play the sax on tv
re: #125 Brian J.
After nominating Barry Goldwater, the Republicans paid for that with black voters for 52 years and counting, although they’ve certainly poured enough gas on that fire to keep it burning bright.
After supporting Proposition 187, California Republicans have lost 3/4 of the Hispanic vote in every election for 22 years while their party withered to a rump.
After insulting Hispanics nationwide…
Now all they gotta do is insult Asians.//
re: #127 dangerman
first (and only) pres to play the sax on tv
Yeah Dad remembers Bill going on Arsenio Hall and thinking “Man this guy’s cool.”
re: #119 goddamnedfrank
Here’s the best criticism you can make of Nate’s current model and methodology, he’s not actually predicting jack shit. Seriously, can you even imagine a halfway plausible outcome on Tuesday that he won’t take credit for predicting? He’s made his prognostication so completely wishy washy and vague that not matter what happens he’s going to claim the outcome vindicates him, and that in a word is gutless.
Say what you will about the other statistical aggregators they’re at least putting their reputations on the line if the outcome is wildly off from the odds they give.
Models are supposed to be related to reality. And that means that you know what you’re measuring.
His model is describing a reality that is extremely volatile. I simply don’t believe the voting public is that volatile. That leads me to the hypothesis that what he’s modeling is not propensity for voting behavior, but something else that’s only loosely correlated.
re: #119 goddamnedfrank
Here’s the best criticism you can make of Nate’s current model and methodology, he’s not actually predicting jack shit. Seriously, can you even imagine a halfway likely outcome on Tuesday that he won’t take credit for predicting? He’s made his prognostication so completely wishy washy and vague that not matter what happens he’s going to claim the outcome vindicates him, and that in a word is gutless.
Say what you will about the other statistical aggregators they’re at least putting their reputations on the line if the outcome is wildly off from the odds they give.
sam wang’s willing to eat a bug if he’s wrong about trump not going over 240
re: #11 dangerman
… rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.
…..knaves, poltroons, buffoons, baboons, and maroons!
Nah, too literary for them, incorporating as it does elements of both Shakespeare and Bugs Bunny.
Just got back from taking the kids to Dr Strange, good fun film
re: #126 HappyWarrior
It was very unlikely. The Cubs beat the odds, and that makes their victory even more incredible. The Indians were a strong team, but not the stronger team, in the end. Overall, sports are more difficult to predict than elections, but that’s because there are so many individual variables in a single game. The models themselves, however, are built on sound statistical techniques, and a comparison of expected vs. actual performance can yield some interesting data (see, for example, their discussion on the “unluckiest” franchises in baseball).
re: #129 HappyWarrior
Yeah Dad remembers Bill going on Arsenio Hall and thinking “Man this guy’s cool.”
at that time it was just a tad odd, sort of
after this year with trump, a sax is a yawner
re: #131 gwangung
Models are supposed to be related to reality. And that means that you know what you’re measuring.
His model is describing a reality that is extremely volatile. I simply don’t believe the voting public is that volatile. That leads me to the hypothesis that what he’s modeling is not propensity for voting behavior, but something else that’s only loosely correlated.
Heck, he’s even had articles on the subject, building on Sides and Vavreck’s research in The Gamble. But Nate’s willing to ignore that for the clicks.
If you take seriously the claim that she has a 1/3 chance of losing when ahead by 3 points, you’re implying that the average of public opinion polls has a standard error of about 5 percent, or a conventional margin of error of about 10 percent… meaning that there’s no real point to doing any polling at all.
re: #106 HappyWarrior
Right. I think it’s just misunderstood when Nate’s map says 50% Clinton, 50% Trump for a certain state. He’s saying he feels it’s a 50-50 chance who wins that state. Now, of course we can disagree with that but I don’t think he’s unskewing.
Most of the big poll analysts cannot be accused of unskewing - i.e. being dishonest partisan hacks pulling the data out of their asses (because that’s what the term means since 2012). Maybe RCP, although what they are doing probably doesn’t fall under “unskewing” proper.
re: #139 Nyet
Most of the big poll analysts cannot be accused of unskewing - i.e. being dishonest partisan hacks pulling the data out of their asses (because that’s what the term means since 2012). Maybe RCP, although what they are doing probably doesn’t fall under “unskewing” proper.
True; that would be cherry-picking. Republican firm that didn’t exist last week and won’t exist next? Fine. Well-established Democratic firm with a strong track record? Biased.
re: #109 Brian J.
He also has a really dumb ad that just aired during the Arkansas-Florida game. It’s about the phones she supposedly smashed in the process of the email argle-bargle, mixed with completely unsupported headlines about how she’s endangered national security.
With “reenactments.”
Honestly, I think Hillary ought to wield a sledgehammer for her victory speech.
And even that piece of crap isn’t original—idea came from Cruz’s terrible Office Space parody spot.
re: #124 Donkey With No Name
Well, fundamentally, giving two-significant-digit probability predictions on a result that, by definition, cannot be repeated is a mug’s game. The only acceptable point of view here is Bayesian, and from that position Silver and the others are basically engaging in a meaningless prior-waving contest.
In a way yes, before we consider that their relative accuracy can be tested post-election on a state-by-state basis. And Silver is doing pretty good on that scale: mashable.com
Just had a lady bug (that’s what I’ve always called em) land on my hand. Flicked that thing off so fast - that photo of the dog’s infested mouth will live with me forever.
Thanks-not to whoever posted that photo.
re: #111 BeachDem
WTF was that? And why did I watch it all the way through? I guess I was mesmerized by its awfulness.
Sorta like Americans that love them some Trump. We ask why, they are mesmerized.
re: #143 Stanley Sea
Thankfully my tweet-pics were off at the moment.
re: #142 Nyet
In a way yes, before we consider that their relative accuracy can be tested post-election on a state-by-state basis. And Silver is doing pretty good on that scale: mashable.com
But the 2016 election is not 2012.
re: #131 gwangung
Models are supposed to be related to reality. And that means that you know what you’re measuring.
His model is describing a reality that is extremely volatile. I simply don’t believe the voting public is that volatile. That leads me to the hypothesis that what he’s modeling is not propensity for voting behavior, but something else that’s only loosely correlated.
time and again it’s been pointed out that electorally clinton has never been below 275 or so, and trump has never cracked 270 - actually much less
and their popular vote %’s have also been within a 2-5 point range or so - very consistent with clinton virtually always on top
for trump to win, there had to be a significant shift in the last week or so - not shown in any poll to date, or else something will have to be fundamentally wrong with everyone’s polling and modeling up to now
not saying it cant happen. just that it’s never happened and wont now
re: #146 Donkey With No Name
But the 2016 election is not 2012.
For one thing, it involves far more exorcists.
re: #128 HappyWarrior
Now all they gotta do is insult Asians.//
She’s got it covered. According to Robbie Mook:
Hillary Clinton has built a new political coalition.
The first part of the Clinton coalition is made up of Latino voters. The Latino vote has increased 120%-130%. The second part of Clinton coalition is Asian-American voters who have seen a 90% increase in early voting turnout. The third part of the new Clinton coalition is suburban women. Millennials are supporting Clinton after eight years of backing President Obama. The final piece of the Clinton coalition is African-Americans. African-American early voting turnout is 22% higher than in 2012.
re: #141 BeachDem
And even that piece of crap isn’t original—idea came from Cruz’s terrible Office Space parody spot.
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Ted does know that Peter, Amir, and Michael in Office Space were the ones we were rooting for right?
re: #146 Donkey With No Name
But the 2016 election is not 2012.
He did well both in 2008 and 2012 with (apparently) the same model. Sure, if this year his state predictions will be off, this means the whole 538 accuracy thing will have been a fluke. But until then the assumption that his model is not bad is rational.
Barack Obama is on the phone!
He called to tell me to vote for the congressional candidate I already voted for. Pronounced her name differently than I did. Didn’t wait for me to say hi.
re: #149 BeachDem
She’s got it covered. According to Robbie Mook:
Hillary Clinton has built a new political coalition.
The first part of the Clinton coalition is made up of Latino voters. The Latino vote has increased 120%-130%. The second part of Clinton coalition is Asian-American voters who have seen a 90% increase in early voting turnout. The third part of the new Clinton coalition is suburban women. Millennials are supporting Clinton after eight years of backing President Obama. The final piece of the Clinton coalition is African-Americans. African-American early voting turnout is 22% higher than in 2012.
I was actually sort of joking about the Republicans finding a way to offend them. She does appear to be building a new coalition based off strong parts of Obama’s. Mook’s done a hell of a job by the way. I really like how and who Clinton has hired for her staff this time versus eight years ago. It’s made a big difference. Maybe Mook should be considered for DNC chair?
re: #153 Nyet
He did well both in 2008 and 2012 with (apparently) the same model. Sure, if this year his state predictions will be off, this means the whole 538 accuracy thing will have been a fluke. But until then the assumption that his model is not bad is rational.
If it were a good model, it would give me the numbers that I want.
re: #154 wrenchwench
Barack Obama is on the phone!
He called to tell me to vote for the congressional candidate I already voted for. Pronounced her name differently than I did. Didn’t wait for me to say hi.
i got a caller id yesterday from “Donald J. Trump”
i assumed it was him personally
i did not answer
re: #43 Backwoods_Sleuth
I almost feel sorry for Conway… it has to be hard to spin for Trump. Most politicians are fairly predictable. But spinning for Trump must feel like a ceiling fan with someone constantly flipping the direction switch while running
re: #131 gwangung
Models are supposed to be related to reality. And that means that you know what you’re measuring.
His model is describing a reality that is extremely volatile. I simply don’t believe the voting public is that volatile. That leads me to the hypothesis that what he’s modeling is not propensity for voting behavior, but something else that’s only loosely correlated.
His modeling is limited by the volatility of public poll results, which may or may not reflect actual volatility of the electorate. It is LIKELY, but not certain yet, that the real story of this race is stability, with Clinton always 3-6% ahead, and that the apparent volatility is mostly from nonresponse bias. But Silver has limited his statistical universe to public polls, and is trying to avoid falling in love with his own assumptions (a nice way of saying ‘believing his own bullshit’). This means the only data he has to work with are those polls, and they first-level analysis of them suggests a volatile race, even if a second-level analysis suggests stability.
So, the electorate is reality. Polls sample that reality, but they reflect it only dimly, filtered through the assumptions of the pollsters, the emotional state of the electorate, and a host of other variables.
Aggregators take those highly imperfect data, and then filter it through their own assumptions to produce their predictions. They strive to make their conclusions better reflect reality than the dim reflection of individual polls, but in the end, they’re a reflection of a reflection.
re: #148 Decatur Deb
For one thing, it involves far more exorcists.
Speaking of exorcists…weirdly related…at the downtown Kroger this morning I saw two nuns in full habits, long tunic, collar, veil, etc.. I can’t think the last time I came across classical dressed nuns. I don’t know what order, etc. It just took me back to good ol’ 1st grade Catholic school and the fear I had as a kid of the strange nun.
Those thoughts have stuck with me a long long time…as they left a lasting impression on me. /
re: #155 HappyWarrior
I was actually sort of joking about the Republicans finding a way to offend them. She does appear to be building a new coalition based off strong parts of Obama’s. Mook’s done a hell of a job by the way. I really like how and who Clinton has hired for her staff this time versus eight years ago. It’s made a big difference. Maybe Mook should be considered for DNC chair?
I knew you were kidding, but I had just read that and it seemed applicable. You know Robbie’s done a hell of a job because he doesn’t have to appear on every freaking yakking show putting out fires for the campaign/candidate like the vulgar yam’s gang of idiotic surrogates/campaign managers do.
Mook would make a great DNC chair, and I’d be for it if the DNC would give him free rein to work his magic, but that’s not likely.
I agree, her team has been extremely impressive, bottom to top, and I believe Robbie Mook is a tremendous asset.
re: #160 Blind Frog Belly White
Should rename 538 to “Through a glass, darkly…” :)
re: #159 KGxvi
I almost feel sorry for Conway… it has to be hard to spin for Trump. Most politicians are fairly predictable. But spinning for Trump must feel like a ceiling fan with someone constantly flipping the direction switch while running
no offense to lawyers, im wondering if its similar - you dont have to believe or support your client. just work for them and be a mouthpiece
though as no one is constitutionally entitled to campaign staff, not turning it down does say something about you
re: #162 BeachDem
I knew you were kidding, but I had just read that and it seemed applicable. You know Robbie’s done a hell of a job because he doesn’t have to appear on every freaking yakking show putting out fires for the campaign/candidate like the vulgar yam’s gang of idiotic surrogates/campaign managers do.
Mook would make a great DNC chair, and I’d be for it if the DNC would give him free rein to work his magic, but that’s not likely.
I agree, her team has been extremely impressive, bottom to top, and I believe Robbie Mook is a tremendous asset.
He did a good job here with the McAuliffe campaign. I’m going to be interested in seeing what happens with the DNC chair. I’m not anti DWS as a person but I think Obama made a misstep making a sitting office holder party chair. But yeah though regarding Asian-Americans, this is a group that once favored Republicans and now it’s considerably Democratic. That’s another legacy of Obama who I think while not Asian-American himself has had the greatest understanding of that community due his time in Hawaii and his stepfather as you know was Indonesian.
I do not believe that most of the people who are thinking about voting for Mr. Trump are racist or sexist.
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) November 5, 2016
They’re willing to condone abject racism & sexism so whatever distinction you’re making here is fucking useless operationally speaking. https://t.co/bfqKN9CXsu
— Frank & Steinly (@goddamnedfrank) November 5, 2016
Our job is to reach out to Trump voters to tell them that we’re going to create an economy that works for all of us, not just a few.
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) November 5, 2016
SO glad that Sanders never abandoned his retarded economic monomania. Trump voters don’t give a fuck about economics, they’re just bigots. https://t.co/Q6RRD9Em6j
— Frank & Steinly (@goddamnedfrank) November 5, 2016
re: #163 Nyet
Should rename 538 to “Through a glass, darkly…” :)
That can make you think of Paul, or Ingmar.
re: #164 dangerman
no offense to lawyers, im wondering if its similar - you dont have to believe or support your client. just work for them and be a mouthpiece
though as no one is constitutionally entitled to campaign staff, not turning it down does say something about you
I honestly don’t know. It is interesting though since Kellyanne when she worked for Cruz had some very choice words for Trump. Being a campaign staffer seems to be a pretty mercenary game though campaign staffers of course do stay within their parties. The most interesting thing I can remember was when Carville worked for the Clintons and Mary Matalin worked for the Bushes. Had to be an interesting dynamic with two spouses in direct competition with each other like that.
re: #80 goddamnedfrank
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oh leave poor nate alone, he’s doing the best he can
anybody who doesnt think that trump has a decent chance of winning is fooling themselves, and arguing over whether the tea leaves clearly demonstrate 5% or 35% is pointless
re: #160 Blind Frog Belly White
… This means the only data he has to work with are those polls, and they first-level analysis of them suggests a volatile race, even if a second-level analysis suggests stability.
So, the electorate is reality. Polls sample that reality, but they reflect it only dimly, filtered through the assumptions of the pollsters, the emotional state of the electorate, and a host of other variables.
very well said - esp the first part
i would add a thought to the second paragraph - polls are sampling what people say today they are going to do sometime in the future. that can be accurate at the time of the poll and still (maybe) change between then and election day.
re: #51 wrenchwench
Thank you for the correction. It’s been too long since I’ve seen that. (And I’ve seen it twice, decades apart.)
I’ve been swimming at the quarry where some scenes were shot and witnessed a woman attempt to jump from the ledge Dennis Quaid jumped from. She hit the water wrong and came up screaming that she couldn’t feel her legs. The EMTs had a helluva time just getting back there. I never found out what happened to her.
re: #155 HappyWarrior
Propane Jane has been hammering this point for the last year or so. There’s an existing coalition that elected Obama, and going after this coalition (which, coincidentally, looks like the America of the 2030s) is not a bad strategy.
Both Sanders and Trump focussed on the white working class. While this is a large segment, it’s not longer a winning strategy to lean on them alone. You HAVE to build a coalition of voters now; you might be able to cobble together a coalition that includes white working class, but you cannot rely solely on them to win national elections.
re: #166 goddamnedfrank
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Yeah he’s wrong here. He really is. The bitching about economics is really more an excuse for many of them.
They don’t need to be directly racist or sexist to be sociopaths. @BernieSanders
— Sergey Romanov (@S_ergeyR_omanov) November 5, 2016
re: #166 goddamnedfrank
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trump is a pig.
you support a pig, youre a pig
re: #166 goddamnedfrank
He treating Trump voters as though they all belong in one basket.
re: #170 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
oh leave poor nate alone, he’s doing the best he can
anybody who doesnt think that trump has a decent chance of winning is fooling themselves, and arguing over whether the tea leaves clearly demonstrate 5% or 35% is pointless
I do think Bernie’s doing a good job campaigning for Clinton but I do wish he wouldn’t downplay the role racism has played in driving many people to Trump.
re: #165 HappyWarrior
He did a good job here with the McAuliffe campaign. I’m going to be interested in seeing what happens with the DNC chair. I’m not anti DWS as a person but I think Obama made a misstep making a sitting office holder party chair. But yeah though regarding Asian-Americans, this is a group that once favored Republicans and now it’s considerably Democratic. That’s another legacy of Obama who I think while not Asian-American himself has had the greatest understanding of that community due his time in Hawaii and his stepfather as you know was Indonesian.
Heh. Let’s not forget his SISTER is Asian American.
re: #164 dangerman
no offense to lawyers, im wondering if its similar - you dont have to believe or support your client. just work for them and be a mouthpiece
though as no one is constitutionally entitled to campaign staff, not turning it down does say something about you
There are limits to what the law calls “zealous representation” for lawyers. I have fired crazy clients in the past - I’ve actually had a client, in court reject a settlement at the last minute, even the judge was shocked. Plus, typically when you have a crazy client that can’t keep their story straight, you try to settle the case quickly - most of the practice of law isn’t “winning” and “losing”, its negotiating a settlement that is reasonably acceptable to both sides
re: #169 HappyWarrior
I honestly don’t know. It is interesting though since Kellyanne when she worked for Cruz had some very choice words for Trump. Being a campaign staffer seems to be a pretty mercenary game though campaign staffers of course do stay within their parties. The most interesting thing I can remember was when Carville worked for the Clintons and Mary Matalin worked for the Bushes. Had to be an interesting dynamic with two spouses in direct competition with each other like that.
Pimps rarely really love their stable.
re: #173 gwangung
Propane Jane has been hammering this point for the last year or so. There’s an existing coalition that elected Obama, and going after this coalition (which, coincidentally, looks like the America of the 2030s) is not a bad strategy.
Both Sanders and Trump focussed on the white working class. While this is a large segment, it’s not longer a winning strategy to lean on them alone. You HAVE to build a coalition of voters now; you might be able to cobble together a coalition that includes white working class, but you cannot rely solely on them to win national elections.
No, you can’t rely on just them. What we may have seen this past election is their last hurrah as a large but not large enough bloc. The successful coalitions of the past i.e. FDR’s and Reagan’s included the white working class but they had other participants as well.
re: #166 goddamnedfrank
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Bernie, you are wrong. I believe the Rude Pundit described Trump voters perfectly.
So my final words to them are this: You are wrong. Everything you believe is wrong. It isn’t just that it conflicts with my ideology. It’s that you are factually, demonstrably wrong, about Hillary Clinton, about Barack Obama, about Donald Trump, and your candidate consistently, flagrantly lies. He is utter shit. The fact that you don’t care about this makes you shit. You should be whipped out of the public sphere like vermin-infested dogs until you only occupy the hinterlands and can live in your compounds of shit. The rest of us are done with you.
Wait for the last clip
“All men are created equal? Well, it’s not true!”
Trump on his racehorse theory of human development, genetic superiority@angela_rye pic.twitter.com/eTIqrXpILi— Adam Khan (@Khanoisseur) October 19, 2016
re: #185 HappyWarrior
That’s right, Maya.
And y’all should know Asian Americans are very family oriented…we’re more than happy to count Barrack as part of the family….
La rumba por @Hillary_esp sigue en Osceola! Adelante, Latinos, que vamos a ganar! #JuntosSePuede pic.twitter.com/OHrCnNfhNT
— Lorella Praeli (@lorellapraeli) November 5, 2016
re: #159 KGxvi
I almost feel sorry for Conway… it has to be hard to spin for Trump. Most politicians are fairly predictable. But spinning for Trump must feel like a ceiling fan with someone constantly flipping the direction switch while running
I can’t find it in my heart to summon even a crumb of sympathy for that woman.
She bought the ticket, now she gets to take the ride. Nothing short of extensive cosmetic surgery, a name change and moving to another country will salvage her career.
She knew what she was doing. Now she gets to suffer the consequences once the electoral hammer comes down.
re: #180 KGxvi
There are limits to what the law calls “zealous representation” for lawyers. I have fired crazy clients in the past - I’ve actually had a client, in court reject a settlement at the last minute, even the judge was shocked. Plus, typically when you have a crazy client that can’t keep their story straight, you try to settle the case quickly - most of the practice of law isn’t “winning” and “losing”, its negotiating a settlement that is reasonably acceptable to both sides
Another difference is, I don’t believe lawyers will risk perjuring themselves to support their clients—Kellyanne is as big a liar as Trump.
re: #170 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
oh leave poor nate alone, he’s doing the best he can
anybody who doesnt think that trump has a decent chance of winning is fooling themselves, and arguing over whether the tea leaves clearly demonstrate 5% or 35% is pointless
i dont think he has a decent chance
i think he has a possible chance
if absolutely everything goes right for him and goes wrong for clinton, and as i said, if all the polling up to now has something wrong with it
behind in virtually every meaningful poll and never once close to ahead in state-by-state electoral projections, it would be a turn around (from the polls) no one has ever done before.
re: #183 BeachDem
Bernie, you are wrong. I believe the Rude Pundit described Trump voters perfectly.
I believe they’ve actually done studies of the average Trump voter and he/she is demonstrably better off than the average American. They’re not wealthy but they’re not the downtrodden either. And honestly experiencing economic woes is NOT an excuse to be a bigot. And it really annoys me that Bernie continues to dismiss this. I really think it’s a product of him being in a state overwhelmingly white that has because of that seen little racial strife.
re: #186 thedopefishlives
Harem is the word.
“Harem” is almost exactly the opposite of “free-range”.
wow so journalism
Why Democrats Would Be Smart To Let Donald Trump Put Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court by Ryan Grim
very breaking
re: #160 Blind Frog Belly White
His modeling is limited by the volatility of public poll results, which may or may not reflect actual volatility of the electorate. It is LIKELY, but not certain yet, that the real story of this race is stability, with Clinton always 3-6% ahead, and that the apparent volatility is mostly from nonresponse bias. But Silver has limited his statistical universe to public polls, and is trying to avoid falling in love with his own assumptions (a nice way of saying ‘believing his own bullshit’). This means the only data he has to work with are those polls, and they first-level analysis of them suggests a volatile race, even if a second-level analysis suggests stability.
So, the electorate is reality. Polls sample that reality, but they reflect it only dimly, filtered through the assumptions of the pollsters, the emotional state of the electorate, and a host of other variables.
Aggregators take those highly imperfect data, and then filter it through their own assumptions to produce their predictions. They strive to make their conclusions better reflect reality than the dim reflection of individual polls, but in the end, they’re a reflection of a reflection.
The guys on Keepin It 1600, who worked for Obama (including Jon Faverou(destroyed the spelling on that), one of his speech writers) have been saying for a while that public polls have been getting worse in recent cycles, compared to internal polls. Part of the reason for this is because news agencies don’t have the funding that they used to have to commission polls. Additionally, there are a lot more polling agencies than before and the newer ones aren’t as accurate as old pollsters. Finally, there’s the question of whether pollsters have adapted their methodology to meet the world today - fewer people have land lines (those that do are still less likely to answer calls on their land lines), and online polls are still new and uncertain.
re: #195 Nyet
wow so journalism
Why Democrats Would Be Smart To Let Donald Trump Put Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court by Ryan Grim
very breaking
In other words: We’re allowed to stonewall your guys all you want, but you had damn well better approve our guys, because Jesus.
re: #188 gwangung
And y’all should know Asian Americans are very family oriented…we’re more than happy to count Barrack as part of the family….
I think that by the way is why Republicans have struggled with family orientated demos like Asians and Hispanics in recent years. Republicans talk about family. Asian-Americans and Hispanic-Americans really mean it. I’ve talked about my brother’s wife and her family here before and about how even my sister in law’s cousins remember me by name and that. I love my own family obviously but their family dynamic is much more closer than my own extended family. My niece has had her second cousin as a playmate many a time. Me? i don’t even know most of my second cousins.
re: #175 Nyet
[Embedded content]
i dont think most of them are racist or sexist
i think most of them are ignorant and prejudiced
there’s a difference
re: #197 thedopefishlives
In other words: We’re allowed to stonewall your guys all you want, but you had damn well better approve our guys, because Jesus.
That’s the same guy who accused Silver of hackery. Ironic.
re: #195 Nyet
wow so journalism
Why Democrats Would Be Smart To Let Donald Trump Put Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court by Ryan Grim
very breaking
I stopped with let Donald Trump. Peter Thiel doesn’t belong on the Supreme Court. He doesn’t belong on any court.
re: #173 gwangung
Propane Jane has been hammering this point for the last year or so. There’s an existing coalition that elected Obama, and going after this coalition (which, coincidentally, looks like the America of the 2030s) is not a bad strategy.
Both Sanders and Trump focussed on the white working class. While this is a large segment, it’s not longer a winning strategy to lean on them alone. You HAVE to build a coalition of voters now; you might be able to cobble together a coalition that includes white working class, but you cannot rely solely on them to win national elections.
Sanders and Trump went after the white working class, and Trump did better because he captured their concerns better than Sanders - not economic uncertainty, but rather the sense that the one thing that kept them ahead, being white, was losing its power.
re: #192 dangerman
i dont think he has a decent chance
i think he has a possible chance
FIGHT!! FIGHT!! FIGHT!!
/////////////////////////////////////////////////
re: #199 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
i dont think most of them are racist or sexist
i think most of them are ignorant and prejudiced
there’s a difference
Until we isolate, define, and test them we’re just guessing. OTOH, fuck them.
It’s not as fresh as some tweets, but if you haven’t watched it, I recommend it (bring your glasses for the tiny subtitled translation).
We are the wall. pic.twitter.com/zv1X2Xrj7e
— Gabe Ortíz (@TUSK81) November 5, 2016
re: #203 jaunte
[Embedded content]
I just took a little walk back to the creek at the back of the property, cutting up some downed wood to clear the trails, and disturbed a big buck sleeping against a fallen tree. He looked a lot like this guy. Glad he decided to run the other way.
WHO HAS DISTURBED MY SLUMBER?!
re: #198 HappyWarrior
I think that by the way is why Republicans have struggled with family orientated demos like Asians and Hispanics in recent years. Republicans talk about family. Asian-Americans and Hispanic-Americans really mean it.
I think Republicans think “nuclear family” when they talk family. Immigrant families talk “extended family”…and that’s just not socially/culturally, but economically—sharing resources among extended family members is a fact of life. And Republican policies simply don’t take that into account—-sneering at “it takes a village” is actually sneering at families.
re: #146 Donkey With No Name
But the 2016 election is not 2012.
I mean, to be more specific, the obvious question is, what large correlated systematic effects exist that are not being considered? The “unknown unknowns” may be large and quite variable election-to-election. So while I salute Silver for recognizing that they exist, it’s silly to claim that he knows them so well as to give “64.7%” any kind of sensible meaning.
re: #207 Varek Raith
Bone knives vs. battery powered chainsaw!
re: #195 Nyet
wow so journalism
Why Democrats Would Be Smart To Let Donald Trump Put Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court by Ryan Grim
very breaking
how would donald trump, a private citizen, have the to power to put anyone on the supreme court?
niqRLQZllHRYkuSYcz8ecsd8hychcR1tfgM+1OHQAgcvAeyYpfpteURwQhDZJ9b0z5GDlegJWtJhixHLP8Nfc4pDtWfChj//e2Js2jdG1rE=
re: #184 FormerDirtDart
Wait for the last clip
[Embedded content]
we have a rule of thumb where i come from, donny boy
anybody who tells people how smart they are is definitely a fucking idiot
re: #208 gwangung
I think Republicans think “nuclear family” when they talk family. Immigrant families talk “extended family”…and that’s just not socially/culturally, but economically—sharing resources among extended family members is a fact of life. And Republican policies simply don’t take that into account—-sneering at “it takes a village” is actually sneering at families.
I guess I think more like an immigrant then heh because I really relish getting to know my extended family. I’ve even talked to some extended family that still lives in Europe not too far from where my family emigrated from. I think you’re right about that though.
re: #212 allegro
Oh yeah, scads. The problem is dragging it up out of the woods.
re: #211 dangerman
how would donald trump, a private citizen, have the to power to put anyone on the supreme court?
We might be in the early stages of learning the true power of a XXI Cent multi-billionaire.
re: #202 Blind Frog Belly White
Sanders and Trump went after the white working class, and Trump did better because he captured their concerns better than Sanders - not economic uncertainty, but rather the sense that the one thing that kept them ahead, being white, was losing its power.
It’s really unfortunate but it’s true. George Wallace had some success doing the same. It wasn’t as successful as Trump though since the unions were stronger in those days.
re: #209 Donkey With No Name
I mean, to be more specific, the obvious question is, what large correlated systematic effects exist that are not being considered? The “unknown unknowns” may be large and quite variable election-to-election. So while I salute Silver for recognizing that they exist, it’s silly to claim that he knows them so well as to give “64.7%” any kind of sensible meaning.
Literally, it’s the percentage of computer simulations in which this candidate wins. I understand your point about not being able to test this single number, but on the other hand he doesn’t give only this number but also the results for each state, so his model is not enitrely untestable either.
re: #160 Blind Frog Belly White
His modeling is limited by the volatility of public poll results, which may or may not reflect actual volatility of the electorate. It is LIKELY, but not certain yet, that the real story of this race is stability, with Clinton always 3-6% ahead, and that the apparent volatility is mostly from nonresponse bias. But Silver has limited his statistical universe to public polls, and is trying to avoid falling in love with his own assumptions (a nice way of saying ‘believing his own bullshit’). This means the only data he has to work with are those polls, and they first-level analysis of them suggests a volatile race, even if a second-level analysis suggests stability.
Pardon, but that’s exactly what the HuffPo article is claiming he’s not doing - rather, he’s shifting the central values of the state-level data by assumptions about how things should be correlated with national-level data. So he claims that the state polls must be wrong, in a correlated direction, because his model says so.
re: #195 Nyet
wow so journalism
Why Democrats Would Be Smart To Let Donald Trump Put Peter Thiel On The Supreme Court by Ryan Grim
very breaking
I’m not sure that anyone has ever been appointed to the court that had never practiced law. And I’m guessing that Thiel would not be the first
re: #216 Decatur Deb
We might be in the early stages of learning the true power of a XXI Cent multi-billionaire.
Well that leaves Trump out.
@PollyAndry You aren’t getting them to any table except on Thanksgiving, when they make it abundantly clear who they are.
— Frank & Steinly (@goddamnedfrank) November 5, 2016
This is what kills me about white liberals, we know exactly who our conservative family members are and what they think. Yet so many of us try to compartmentalize all that and prefer to think of them as good people. They’re not good people, they’re generally poorly educated fuck ups filled with cognitive dissonance, cultural revanchism, Jesus, various pills and their own self-righteous bullshit.
re: #220 KGxvi
I’m not sure that anyone has ever been appointed to the court that had never practiced law. And I’m guessing that Thiel would not be the first
True but nearly everyone of them had experienced in political matters. Thiel even being considered is a joke IMO.
re: #223 goddamnedfrank
[Embedded content]
[Embedded content]
This is what kills me about white liberals, we know exactly who our conservative family members are and what they think. Yet so many of us try to compartmentalize all that and prefer to think of them as good people. They’re not good people, they’re generally poorly educated fuck ups filled with cognitive dissonance, cultural revanchism, Jesus, various pills and their own self-righteous bullshit.
Some of them are good people. Terribly, terribly misguided good people who either don’t know, or choose to deliberately ignore, the full ramifications of their misguidedness. I don’t think fishfolk, for example, understand in the slightest the racist and sexist undertones that are driving Trump’s campaign - they are only able to comprehend things in terms of abortion and guns.
re: #178 HappyWarrior
I do think Bernie’s doing a good job campaigning for Clinton but I do wish he wouldn’t downplay the role racism has played in driving many people to Trump.
imho we need to be much clearer about the difference btw racism in the strict sense, that is, biological nazi-ass racism, and prejudice, that is, pre judging based on stupid innacurate ideas about whole groups of people
the trump people feel justified that the criticism from democrats is unjustified because they are not, mostly, racists under the above definition
i think we need to tell them, ok, you’re not a bunch of nazis or klansmen. but you are mostly full of the stupidest, most prejudiced ideas about other people, and it’s high time you learned a thing or two about the real world
re: #211 dangerman
how would donald trump, a private citizen, have the to power to put anyone on the supreme court?
lying + money
re: #223 goddamnedfrank
[Embedded content]
This is what kills me about white liberals, we know exactly who our conservative family members are and what they think. Yet so many of us try to compartmentalize all that and prefer to think of them as good people. They’re not good people, they’re generally poorly educated fuck ups filled with cognitive dissonance, cultural revanchism, Jesus, various pills and their own self-righteous bullshit.
That ‘something’ will almost undoubtedly be unacceptable.
re: #192 dangerman
i dont think he has a decent chance
i think he has a possible chanceif absolutely everything goes right for him and goes wrong for clinton, and as i said, if all the polling up to now has something wrong with it
behind in virtually every meaningful poll and never once close to ahead in state-by-state electoral projections, it would be a turn around (from the polls) no one has ever done before.
The Kerry map plus Virginia is pretty goddamn solid, and Hillary’s already won Nevada by all indications. That’s 270 right there. I know I’m repeating myself, but it’s to calm myself as well as everybody else.
re: #226 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
imho we need to be much clearer about the difference btw racism in the strict sense, that is, biological nazi-ass racism, and prejudice, that is, pre judging based on stupid innacurate ideas about whole groups of people
the trump people feel justified that the criticism from democrats is unjustified because they are not, mostly, racists under the above definition
i think we need to tell them, ok, you’re not a bunch of nazis or klansmen. but you are mostly full of the stupidest, most prejudiced ideas about other people, and it’s high time you learned a thing or two about the real world
Right that’s what I mean. I mean these people do need to be told that they need to get over their bigotry and that they are being bigoted. Otherwise, they think their crap is okay. I just think it’s not right to give them an out by saying “Oh they’re economically frustrated.” I’ve been unemployed before too and hell I probably suffer more than they do when unemployed since I’m on the autistic spectrum but do I resort to racial scapegoating? Nope.
re: #213 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
we have a rule of thumb where i come from, donny boy
anybody who tells people how smart they are is definitely a fucking idiot
and never trust anyone who says “trust me”
re: #196 KGxvi
The guys on Keepin It 1600, who worked for Obama (including Jon Faverou(destroyed the spelling on that), one of his speech writers) have been saying for a while that public polls have been getting worse in recent cycles, compared to internal polls. Part of the reason for this is because news agencies don’t have the funding that they used to have to commission polls. Additionally, there are a lot more polling agencies than before and the newer ones aren’t as accurate as old pollsters. Finally, there’s the question of whether pollsters have adapted their methodology to meet the world today - fewer people have land lines (those that do are still less likely to answer calls on their land lines), and online polls are still new and uncertain.
I keep seeing his name—is this the Jon Favreau?
re: #232 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
I keep seeing his name—is this the Jon Favreau?
Yup. He’s also writing for Bill Simmons’ new(ish) website The Ringer
re: #231 dangerman
and never trust anyone who says “trust me”
also, never play poker with anybody called ‘doc’
re: #170 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
oh leave poor nate alone, he’s doing the best he can
anybody who doesnt think that trump has a decent chance of winning is fooling themselves, and arguing over whether the tea leaves clearly demonstrate 5% or 35% is pointless
re: #225 thedopefishlives
Some of them are good people. Terribly, terribly misguided good people who either don’t know, or choose to deliberately ignore, the full ramifications of their misguidedness. I don’t think fishfolk, for example, understand in the slightest the racist and sexist undertones that are driving Trump’s campaign - they are only able to comprehend things in terms of abortion and guns.
They’re complicated people. It’s so frustrating because I’m neighbors with a lot of them and get on well with them socially but they certainly do have a lot of negative prejudices. Was getting my haircut with my Dad and we ran into someone we knew, my Dad made some remark about the ACLU as a gag and the guy said the ACLU was the American Criminal Liberty Union. I think it’s when you deal with people like this or have them as family that makes people want to rationalize for them (not saying you are doing that but I think there are some liberals who do that and to an extend I Get that because it’s hard to call people you care about bigots.)
re: #232 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
I keep seeing his name—is this the Jon Favreau?
If you mean from Swingers, no. Totally different guy.
The point about the “exact” numbers is a good one though, and applies to other poll prognosticators as well. We like numbers and graphs, but maybe a more rational thing would be, as the end result, to divide the 100% into several regions, attach the verbal intuitive labels like “practically impossible - improbable - somewhat unlikely - coin toss - somewhat likely - probable - almost certain” and refuse to display the deceptively exact percentages.
re: #211 dangerman
how would donald trump, a private citizen, have the to power to put anyone on the supreme court?
Is the SCOTUS the only court you can wind up on without even being a lawyer, much less a judge?
re: #238 goddamnedfrank
If you mean from Swingers, no. Totally different guy.
Younger guy I believe. The Swingers guy has turned out to be a pretty good director. Not Scorsese or Coen talented but talented enough where I think he makes compelling movies. The movie he made about the food truck was good and man did it make me hungry for a good Cuban sandwich.
re: #240 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Is the SCOTUS the only court you can wind up on without even being a lawyer, much less a judge?
I imagine governors appoint people who aren’t lawyers or judges to the Supreme Courts in their states. I still don’t get how Roy Moore passed law school.
re: #219 Donkey With No Name
Pardon, but that’s exactly what the HuffPo article is claiming he’s not doing - rather, he’s shifting the central values of the state-level data by assumptions about how things should be correlated with national-level data. So he claims that the state polls must be wrong, in a correlated direction, because his model says so.
Sorry, but there’s not really any disagreement between what I said and what you said. There are the data, and there are the models.
Silver has studied and determined what he thinks are the important factors and how they should be weighted, and used that to design his model. But he’s using that model to work with volatile DATA. So’s everyone else.
Silver may believe the race is more stable than his model suggests, but he’s stuck with the model he designed. Sticking with a model you may think is imperfect is more defensible than changing it on the fly.
The other thing is, his model is always days behind the electorate. State polls we saw on Thursday that gave everyone the heebie-jeebies were in the field over the weekend and early in the week, after the Comey announcement. They went into the model Thursday night, and gave the result we saw Friday morning. And they stay in the model, gradually losing weight as each day passes, especially if supplanted by new polls. But his model always reflects the responses of the electorate from 3-5 days ago.
re: #229 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
The Kerry map plus Virginia is pretty goddamn solid, and Hillary’s already won Nevada by all indications. That’s 270 right there. I know I’m repeating myself, but it’s to calm myself as well as everybody else.
a couple of weeks or so back i was momentarily worried that the tide could turn. people are gullible and somewhat fickle this year. i have never been worried that the general polling / aggregating / modeling has been so fundamentally wrong.
re: #242 HappyWarrior
He bought his degree. /half
re: #245 PhillyPretzel
He bought his degree. /half
To go on another rant, I hate that some states elect Supreme Court judges. I consider myself pretty democratic but i hate the idea of Supreme Court judges being elected. I guess I can understand it a little more on the county level but even then, I don’t like the idea of something like the judiciary being a popularity contest.
re: #240 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Is the SCOTUS the only court you can wind up on without even being a lawyer, much less a judge?
Technically, anyone could be appointed to a federal judgeship without having practiced law. But as a practical matter, it won’t actually happen. A lot of Senators used to be lawyers, they’re not going to be inclined to vote for someone with no understanding of the law to be a judge
State courts have different rules - for example in california you have to be a member of the state bar for at least five years.
re: #240 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Is the SCOTUS the only court you can wind up on without even being a lawyer, much less a judge?
i was going for somethign else
the article said the dems should let trump put theil on the court
i was implying that trump wasnt going to win the election, so…
or if you got that….nevermind
re: #238 goddamnedfrank
If you mean from Swingers, no. Totally different guy.
Thanks—that’s what I meant.
anyway i have to tell you i’m a little discouraged after sitting and talking with somebody i know who was a professional phd genetics researcher who told me that it was scientifically proven that men - in the aggregate - were better than women at science and math
this in spite of the fact that his wife had been a phd professional genetics researcher as well, and one of his daughters is a professional phd cancer researcher
he also thought people should just relax about some ethnic groups being naturally talented at sports and others naturally inclined - genetically - to intellectual pursuits
This brought a tear to my eye. For those who were with Clintons since beginning you will know what I mean. https://t.co/y8zvwPFoA6
— Sunflower Soul (@SunflowerSoul71) November 5, 2016
re: #242 HappyWarrior
I imagine governors appoint people who aren’t lawyers or judges to the Supreme Courts in their states. I still don’t get how Roy Moore passed law school.
West Pointer. Slept on sandbags in Viet Nam for fear of his men.
re: #252 Decatur Deb
West Pointer. Slept on sandbags in Viet Nam for fear of his men.
Shit if I had to deal with Roy as my commanding officer, I’d just get high and fuck with him.
re: #250 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
Whether or not he has a point scientifically, note that a few individual data points do not contradict a claim about the aggregate, i.e. an average. So there is no internal contradiction between him saying that and having female scientist relatives.
re: #225 thedopefishlives
Some of them are good people. Terribly, terribly misguided good people who either don’t know, or choose to deliberately ignore, the full ramifications of their misguidedness. I don’t think fishfolk, for example, understand in the slightest the racist and sexist undertones that are driving Trump’s campaign - they are only able to comprehend things in terms of abortion and guns.
That’s what I’ve been seeing here. Of my Republican acquaintances, the educated hate Trump, claim they will swallow broken glass before voting for him but a few are so Clinton deranged they are tying themselves in knots. The less educated god-botherers are all about abortion, voting for Trump with the belief that their deity will smite him so they can have Pence. I stay away from gun humpers entirely.
I don’t think I’ll be inviting this person to any tables.
@Green_Footballs why must you huff Hillary’s **** fumes?
— Audrama (@6ae025af2132401) November 5, 2016
re: #251 Stanley Sea
[Embedded content]
The best part of that was the man from Cincy who apologized to Bill for believing the right wing bs about the Clintons. I don’t think he needed to apologize to Bill but what struck me about the guy was his willingness to admit that he had been wrong. That’s the sign of an adult right there and that’s a key thing that separates Clinton from Trump.
re: #254 Nyet
Whether or not he has a point scientifically, note that a few individual data points do not contradict a claim about the aggregate, i.e. an average. So there is no internal contradiction between him saying that and having female scientist relatives.
strictly speaking you are correct, of course
practically speaking, i’d like to see what would happen if he tried explaining his theories to them
re: #256 Charles Johnson
I don’t think I’ll be inviting this person to any tables.
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It’s the “economic pressure” talking there.
@Green_Footballs why must you huff Hillary’s **** fumes?
— Audrama (@6ae025af2132401) November 5, 2016
Behold, a typical Trump supporter: https://t.co/Y34Rq9np2s
— Sergey Romanov (@S_ergeyR_omanov) November 5, 2016
re: #256 Charles Johnson
How do you tell someone your twitter handle if it Ian literally a random series of letters and numbers?
re: #256 Charles Johnson
I don’t think I’ll be inviting this person to any tables.
[Embedded content]
on the internet, nobody knows if you are a dog
but they can tell when you talk like a ten year old
re: #255 allegro
That’s what I’ve been seeing here. Of my Republican acquaintances, the educated hate Trump, claim they will swallow broken glass before voting for him but a few are so Clinton deranged they are tying themselves in knots. The less educated god-botherers are all about abortion, voting for Trump with the belief that their deity will smite him so they can have Pence. I stay away from gun humpers entirely.
I have a really good friend who is rabidly right wing but detests Trump but it frustrates me since his posts to me imply he thinks Clinton is no better or even worse than Trump but what really pisses me off is he posts bullshit without even looking at it. Saw an exchange with him and someone else the other day deriding someone for using Snopes and I just felt like saying “Dude, you use Ben Shapiro as a source, who the hell are you to question Snopes when Snopes calls out left and right wing bs out equally.” I’m hoping he takes a break from the political bs after the election ends. He’s a great friend but he’s gotten really whiny and self-righteous since he decided to become a right winger after years of being apolitical.
re: #255 allegro
That’s what I’ve been seeing here. Of my Republican acquaintances, the educated hate Trump, claim they will swallow broken glass before voting for him but a few are so Clinton deranged they are tying themselves in knots. The less educated god-botherers are all about abortion, voting for Trump with the belief that their deity will smite him so they can have Pence. I stay away from gun humpers entirely.
And to be fair to fishfolk, as much as they are misguided in their blind support of Republicans, even they openly despise Trump. Trump has alienated a lot of right-wingers who are at least slightly to the left of Rush Limbaugh.
re: #263 HappyWarrior
My sister, of all people, made a FB post recommending that people check Snopes before posting bullshit all over their news feed. It gives me hope!
re: #261 KGxvi
How do you tell someone your twitter handle if it Ian literally a random series of letters and numbers?
You don’t. If that’s the case, you’re probably just a bot on a server in Putinland.
re: #264 thedopefishlives
And to be fair to fishfolk, as much as they are misguided in their blind support of Republicans, even they openly despise Trump. Trump has alienated a lot of right-wingers who are at least slightly to the left of Rush Limbaugh.
He certainly has. What does frustrate me is those right wingers try to blame the rise of Trump on the left and Obama or claim Trump’s a left winger rather than examine carefully the ideology they’ve spent years supporting.
re: #256 Charles Johnson
As absolutely vile and deplorable that person is… I snickered a little bit before I blocked them. I admit it.
re: #258 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
strictly speaking you are correct, of course
practically speaking, i’d like to see what would happen if he tried explaining his theories to them
Would depend on their views, I guess.
re: #265 thedopefishlives
My sister, of all people, made a FB post recommending that people check Snopes before posting bullshit all over their news feed. It gives me hope!
My buddy. I think he just gets bored since he’s got a lot of free time when he’s not working (lives alone and is constantly on the road) and he just posts stuff so easily debunked. There was one meme about why Republicans are worried about voter fraud and it wasn’t hard for me to debunk at all. Still can’t believe he wanted me to watch Dinesh D’sousa’s trashy movie about Clinton with him when he visited. I was polite but firm in refusing. I wouldn’t expect him to watch a Michael Moore documentary with me.
A Constructicon Devastator, but made out of Taco Trucks.
— Frank & Steinly (@goddamnedfrank) November 5, 2016
Is there something about Chicago? First the Cubs break a 108 year drought, now Ireland end a 111 year losing run at Soldier Field.
Historic first victory over the All Blacks in sight as Ireland surge ahead with a late try.
stuff.co.nz
Final score 40-29 to Ireland.
I guess under a Trump Presidency, this would mean we’d have to kick out all the Irish and stop immigration from there too.
The Irish Department of Foreign Affairs has confirmed it is investigating reports that an Irishman was killed when he detonated a car bomb near the Iraqi city of Mosul on Friday.
The problem is there’s so many echo chambers out there. People just accept things on face value because someone they agree with says something. Honestly, what I love about LGF and our community is we strive for accuracy even when it’s regarding people we disagree with. That’s rare these days. And what’s more many of you aren’t upset when your’e told that you were mistaken, you take it in stride. It’s something that people who turn their social media into Politics 24/7 should try learning.
Here’s a political cartoon from Amsterdam. The rest of the world is watching America’s election hoping we don’t chose to destroy ourselves. pic.twitter.com/tOpTwfOXZq
— Jonathan Riley (@JonRiley7) October 27, 2016
Trump has cancelled Wisconsin rally planned for Sunday afternoon - a state where he’d hoped to catch up with Clinton. Instead? Minnesota.
— Sarah McCammon NPR (@sarahmccammon) November 5, 2016
re: #277 Backwoods_Sleuth
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Where he has essentially zero chance.
re: #274 HappyWarrior
The problem is there’s so many echo chambers out there. People just accept things on face value because someone they agree with says something. Honestly, what I love about LGF and our community is we strive for accuracy even when it’s regarding people we disagree with. That’s rare these days. And what’s more many of you aren’t upset when your’e told that you were mistaken, you take it in stride. It’s something that people who turn their social media into Politics 24/7 should try learning.
ive said this a few times this last week
regarding politics, most people don’t “know” much. They heard or were told or read a web site, heard part of a speech or other questionable source…
And so it’s all second or more hands say-so, skewed, interpreted, and selectively so. They do not research or do critical thinking or analysis.
It becomes a meaningless cult like following.
Because the thought process is the problem, not just the gullible-ness Due to the fundamental lack of desire to learn and know.
The polarization now in 2016 is just one particular example.
its is more than wilful ignorance. It’s wilfully being led by the nose manipulation or simply tell me what to think and I will.
As Obama said to bill maher - they take in symbols and signifiers, not facts and details
its easier to comprehend. and create “defenses” no matter how pretzeled the logic.
re: #277 Backwoods_Sleuth
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he figures to swing back and hit wisconsin on wednesday or thursday
re: #280 dangerman
he figures to swing back and hit wisconsin on wednesday or thursday
Well, he told his supporters to vote on November 28, so he has plenty of time.
re: #242 HappyWarrior
I imagine governors appoint people who aren’t lawyers or judges to the Supreme Courts in their states. I still don’t get how Roy Moore passed law school.
Hey, Kayleigh McInidiot graduated from Georgetown, spent a year at Oxford and has a law degree from Harvard. ‘Splain that!
re: #280 dangerman
he figures to swing back and hit wisconsin on wednesday or thursday
And yet Hilary made it to almost all 57 states before the 8th.
//
re: #282 BeachDem
Hey, Kayleigh McInidiot graduated from Georgetown, spent a year at Oxford and has a law degree from Harvard. ‘Splain that!
bell curve balancing affirmative action
re: #285 Stanley Sea
OK, my day. Breakfast with bloody marys. Took a nap which is death for me. I never wake back up.
But here we go.
[Embedded content]
Kick it in now second wind.
Bloody Marys? Were those made with real blood? #SpiritCooking
Another former BernieBro Clinton-hater sees the light.
dailykos.com
re: #278 thedopefishlives
Where he has essentially zero chance.
He fired his pollster, so he has no clue & doesn’t care.
re: #286 thedopefishlives
Bloody Marys? Were those made with real blood? #SpiritCooking
And Mary was none too happy about it.
re: #285 Stanley Sea
OK, my day. Breakfast with bloody marys. Took a nap which is death for me. I never wake back up.
But here we go.
[Embedded content]
Kick it in now second wind.
Any day that starts with alcohol at breakfast is a day that will likely not follow the original plans. Don’t ask me how I know that.
re: #290 allegro
Any day that starts with alcohol at breakfast is a day that will likely not follow the original plans. Don’t ask me how I know that.
But now I want a Bloody Mary. Damn, guys. *off to the liquor store for fixins*
re: #288 Stanley Sea
He fired his pollster, so he has no clue & doesn’t care.
He should ask Mitt Romney how ignoring reality worked out for him.
re: #287 Nyet
Another former BernieBro Clinton-hater sees the light.
dailykos.com
“For a long time, I have resisted the idea that my negative opinion of Hillary had been shaped by others”
this re: #279 dangerman
doesnt just refer to r’s:
Okay, I’m not a baseball fan in any way, shape, or form (my Grandfather is rolling in his grave), but here is MY ‘when the Cubs last won the World Series’ post:
This Elgin pocket watch is 105 years old. Over a century. It runs very, very well, because it was well built, and because I spent time, and sought advice to get it back in shape. Now, even at 105 years old, if I wind it every day, I only need to set it once a month.
When the Cubs last won the World Series, it hadn’t been built yet.
re: #288 Stanley Sea
He fired his pollster, so he has no clue & doesn’t care.
and stiffed em i think i read
re: #295 Blind Frog Belly White
Beautiful pocket watch. I am very happy to hear it is still keeping time.
re: #296 dangerman
and stiffed em i think i read
IIRC, it was because he didn’t like the pollster’s numbers.
re: #296 dangerman
and stiffed em i think i read
Not that that’s any surprise to those of us who know the real Donald Trump.
Good lord.
GOP candidates who want to win Michigan, OH, PA & the White House in the future should borrow heavily from this ad.https://t.co/X2yka7RlVS
— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) November 5, 2016
re: #290 allegro
Any day that starts with alcohol at breakfast is a day that will likely not follow the original plans. Don’t ask me how I know that.
re: #243 Blind Frog Belly White
Sorry, but there’s not really any disagreement between what I said and what you said. There are the data, and there are the models.
Silver has studied and determined what he thinks are the important factors and how they should be weighted, and used that to design his model. But he’s using that model to work with volatile DATA. So’s everyone else.
Well, fine. The point I would make is that it’s perfectly possible to make a “data-only” model (subject to time series smoothing etc.) in which you don’t try to be cleverer than the actual polling data, which after all comes with central values and stated errors. When you go beyond that, it’s a bit disingenuous to blame large fluctuations relative to other models on “volatile data”. (Perhaps he should publish a set of statistical-error-only results for comparison …)
I’m getting up extra early tomorrow AM (about 5 or so) to drive 2 hours to go diving with a girl I met last weekend and a friend of hers. Should be fun. It’s a good quarry with lots of stuff to look at, and it will be fun to take a little trip and dive someplace I’m not at every weekend.
RBS
re: #297 PhillyPretzel
Beautiful pocket watch. I am very happy to hear it is still keeping time.
Not so much ‘still’ as ‘again’.
When I got it, it was running 10 min/day slow. Somebody had added two screws to the balance rim (more mass, so longer period of oscillation).
I took them out. Then it ran 10 min/day FAST.
So I added several pairs of timing washers, and now it runs dead on. This was the most complex watchmaking task I’d ever done!
re: #285 Stanley Sea
OK, my day. Breakfast with bloody marys. Took a nap which is death for me. I never wake back up.
But here we go.
[Embedded content]
Kick it in now second wind.
And if that doesn’t work, from the same album:
GOP candidates who want to win Michigan, OH, PA & the White House in the future should borrow heavily from this ad.https://t.co/X2yka7RlVS
— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) November 5, 2016
@JoeNBC @YouTube This might be the most deranged fear-mongering political ad I’ve ever seen, and the antisemitic subtext is unmistakable. https://t.co/pVw6vXPJwR
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
re: #237 HappyWarrior
They’re complicated people. It’s so frustrating because I’m neighbors with a lot of them and get on well with them socially but they certainly do have a lot of negative prejudices. Was getting my haircut with my Dad and we ran into someone we knew, my Dad made some remark about the ACLU as a gag and the guy said the ACLU was the American Criminal Liberty Union. I think it’s when you deal with people like this or have them as family that makes people want to rationalize for them (not saying you are doing that but I think there are some liberals who do that and to an extend I Get that because it’s hard to call people you care about bigots.)
Yes. It’s hard. They are the guy who pulled my crumbling molar and inserted a screw and very deftly put a permanent replacement in. I’d trust him to do it again, but I don’t think I want to sit through him trashing Obama (as he did) or Clinton while I have no feeling in my jaw and eleventy-five tools in my mouth.
re: #304 Blind Frog Belly White
Not so much ‘still’ as ‘again’.
When I got it, it was running 10 min/day slow. Somebody had added two screws to the balance rim (more mass, so longer period of oscillation).
I took them out. Then it ran 10 min/day FAST.
So I added several pairs of timing washers, and now it runs dead on. This was the most complex watchmaking task I’d ever done!
So, you’re saying that it’s not a process that lends itself to instant gratification?
RBS
Anyone can be a sleeze
Seeing Jared Kusher smiling & joking and clearly thick as thieves with Steve Bannon really wonder how he can live w himself.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 5, 2016
re: #295 Blind Frog Belly White
Okay, I’m not a baseball fan in any way, shape, or form (my Grandfather is rolling in his grave), but here is MY ‘when the Cubs last won the World Series’ post:
[Embedded content]
This Elgin pocket watch is 105 years old. Over a century. It runs very, very well, because it was well built, and because I spent time, and sought advice to get it back in shape. Now, even at 105 years old, if I wind it every day, I only need to set it once a month.
When the Cubs last won the World Series, it hadn’t been built yet.
Cool! Makes me want to show off my old Elgin too.
It’s a 1904 so it was a toddler for the Cubs three year string that ended in ‘08. I still carry it on very special occasions and it keeps good time.
re: #305 BeachDem
And if that doesn’t work, from the same album:
[Embedded content]
Of all people, I knew you’d remember & love that album. I actually found it in my parent’s stack when I was a teen. Sealed the deal for me.
Love her.
Maria Theresa Kumar is my functional news crush. pic.twitter.com/jPIudApeOI
— Frank & Steinly (@goddamnedfrank) November 5, 2016
re: #308 Reality Based Steve
So, you’re saying that it’s not a process that lends itself to instant gratification?
RBS
No, but it DOES lend itself to instant aggravation! Like the kind that you feel when you grip the tweezers JUST a bit too tightly, and a screw the size of this . goes flying!
re: #306 Charles Johnson
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Just listening to two minutes of the yam’s repulsive voice and tortured reading is enough to drive me to drink (even more than I already do.)
And I would bet big bucks that his fans wouldn’t last through 30 seconds of that drivel because it doesn’t even say BUILD THAT WALL or LOCK HER UP.
re: #315 BeachDem
Just listening to two minutes of the yam’s repulsive voice and tortured reading is enough to drive my to drink (even more than I already do.)
And I would bet big bucks that his fans wouldn’t last through 30 seconds of that drivel because it doesn’t even say BUILD THAT WALL or LOCK HER UP.
I just want people who support him because of trade would look at the fact he’s benefited immensely from those same deals he rails against. His running mate supported them too. If you’re truly mad about NAFTA, fine, but embracing Trump and bigotry isn’t the answer to that.
re: #310 William Lewis
Cool! Makes me want to show off my old Elgin too.
[Embedded content]
It’s a 1904 so it was a toddler for the Cubs three year string that ended in ‘08. I still carry it on very special occasions and it keeps good time.
Wristwatches came and went between Cubs championships—think about that. OK, technically they date back before that, but didn’t become popular till WWI, and now “what do I need with a wristwatch? I’ve got my phone.” So they’ve reinvented the pocket watch, only this time without a fob, so you have to fish around for it—and then turn it on. [/rant]
Whatever you do, don’t damage this sensitive individual’s feelings by calling them “deplorable.” pic.twitter.com/W5Luer1HMO
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 5, 2016
re: #314 Blind Frog Belly White
No, but it DOES lend itself to instant aggravation! Like the kind that you feel when you grip the tweezers JUST a bit too tightly, and a screw the size of this . goes flying!
I know the feeling, although the items I work with are slightly larger than that, but often need more compression than is available with tweezers. So applying needle-nose pliers to an item the size of this o, only to have it go *POP* and fly across the garage into God only knows what dark crevice.
re: #311 Stanley Sea
Of all people, I knew you’d remember & love that album. I actually found it in my parent’s stack when I was a teen. Sealed the deal for me.
Yep—was a huge Buffett fan—saw him first in a relatively small auditorium during a tour when he had a broken leg in a cast and was on crutches.
Then used to go see him every summer at Blossom with thousand of other admiring fans. Not a total parrothead, but always a fan.
Years ago, there was a bar on the next block. I had employees back then, and I remarked to one of them that when I walked by that bar, it smelled like piss, cigarettes, and Lysol. He said it was better than the bars in Juarez (where he had gone to drink as a youth because it was legal to drink at 18 and they never carded, so he started to go there when he was 16) because they smelled like piss, cigarettes, and Fabuloso, which is Mexican Lysol. I had recently bought some Fabuloso for the shop, and tossed it, because it smelled terrible.
So I don’t buy Fabuloso any more, but I’m a sucker for a deal, so I got another off-brand cleaning spray. Smells OK. I was surprised to see it is from Turkey. That says something about the global economy, but I’m not sure what.
And the bar on the next block is still closed. I think they have to get the smell out before they can reopen. They’ll have to tear it down.
re: #318 Charles Johnson
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Hmmmm who’s the one who supports the guy who talked about dating a ten year old girl in ten years. and who is accused of raping a thirteen year old.
re: #316 HappyWarrior
I just want people who support him because of trade would look at the fact he’s benefited immensely from those same deals he rails against. His running mate supported them too. If you’re truly mad about NAFTA, fine, but embracing Trump and bigotry isn’t the answer to that.
So—all ten of them? (That’s my informed estimate of the number of people who support him because of trade.)
re: #319 thedopefishlives
I know the feeling, although the items I work with are slightly larger than that, but often need more compression than is available with tweezers. So applying needle-nose pliers to an item the size of this o, only to have it go *POP* and fly across the garage into God only knows what dark crevice.
Springs. There are one or two in every movement. Smaller movements have smaller springs. They need to be compressed slightly in order to be removed and replaced. They fly a long distance if you do it wrong.
re: #323 BeachDem
So—all ten of them? (That’s my informed estimate of the number of peple who support him because of trade.)
Hahaha true. In any case, Trump is Pat Buchanan only more creepy.
A friend of mine just released a new album of original electronic music. Very much headphone stuff. Posting it here in case anyone might be interested. Colin and I were in an original music band that played First Avenue/7th Street Entry quite a bit in the early 80’s. He’s got five other albums at the site if you want to dig deeper.
re: #310 William Lewis
Cool! Makes me want to show off my old Elgin too.
[Embedded content]
It’s a 1904 so it was a toddler for the Cubs three year string that ended in ‘08. I still carry it on very special occasions and it keeps good time.
Beautiful! Those 18s Elgins are built like tanks. They’ll still work when WE’RE gone!
re: #320 BeachDem
Yep—was a huge Buffett fan—saw him first in a relatively small auditorium during a tour when he had a broken leg in a cast and was on crutches.
Then used to go see him every summer at Blossom with thousand of other admiring fans. Not a total parrothead, but always a fan.
I think I saw him with the broken leg too! Tangerine bowl in Florida. With Aerosmith. LOL.
Reading a Reuters article, they are attempting to lure me into reading more articles with a banner across the top of the page, as thus:
Candidates on the trail, Clinton Foundation, battleground states, it’s all in Reuters’ live coverageVIEW MORE
“Clinton Foundation” - why is this even a news grab? As near as I can tell, there is no new news, just the same empty air by Drumpfskind.
re: #325 HappyWarrior
Hahaha true. In any case, Trump is Pat Buchanan only more creepy.
Pat Buchanan is wrong about literally everything, but he’s an intellectual giant compared with Trump. Like Dwight Schultz wired into that supercomputer compared with a Pakled. [/Trekkie]
re: #324 Blind Frog Belly White
Springs. There are one or two in every movement. Smaller movements have smaller springs. They need to be compressed slightly in order to be removed and replaced. They fly a long distance if you do it wrong.
I work with snap rings and spring pins, mostly. They’re much stiffer than springs, so compressing them slightly usually involves significantly more force, which makes up for the fact that they don’t displace as much.
re: #330 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Pat Buchanan is wrong about literally everything, but he’s an intellectual giant compared with Trump. Like Dwight Schultz wired into that supercomputer compared with a Pakled. [/Trekkie]
Yeah that’s true as well.
Anyhow the paleocons always bothered me more than the neocons. And I say that knowing they had some intersecting foreign policy concerns with me in the Bush years but the palecons are just awful whereas the neo-cons I think are more misguided.
re: #300 Charles Johnson
He got a good shot of Soros in there. For some time now Soros = Jewish Bankers to me. Utilizing Soros is a paranoid conspiracy smear just as bad as David Duke comments about ‘Jews in the Media.’
OK, my friends have finally made it up here. Time to start all over again. TTYL.
re: #331 thedopefishlives
I work with snap rings and spring pins, mostly. They’re much stiffer than springs, so compressing them slightly usually involves significantly more force, which makes up for the fact that they don’t displace as much.
Mainsprings. They don’t get lost themselves, but they do have enough force to throw the arbor that hooks onto the center of the spring across the room, if you’re not careful.
Oh, and the old blue steel ones? If you’re not careful removing them from the barrel, or if you screw up trying to put them in the barrel, they’ll be totally f’ed up. Thank Elgin for alloy mainsprings!
re: #335 BigPapa
He got a good shot of Soros in there. For some time now Soros = Jewish Bankers to me. Utilizing Soros is a paranoid conspiracy smear just as bad as David Duke comments about ‘Jews in the Media.’
Soros, Alinsky, “New York values”, “coastal elites”, it doesn’t take a genius to see the Republicans and Trump especially engage in Antisemitism to rile up their base.
re: #79 BigPapa
Hillary has Bey, Jay-Z, and Katy Perry? Trump has this:
[Embedded content]
Christ that’s awful. I mean truly terrible.
re: #339 MsJ
Presented without comment: each campaign’s surrogates in Ohio this weekend. pic.twitter.com/INWGcMhzWJ
— Jacqueline Alemany (@JaxAlemany) November 5, 2016
re: #327 Blind Frog Belly White
Beautiful! Those 18s Elgins are built like tanks. They’ll still work when WE’RE gone!
It started off with my Great Grandfather, I got it when my Grandmother passed &, God willing, my son will pass it on to his child still marking the hours and reeling in the years ;)
re: #315 BeachDem
Just listening to two minutes of the yam’s repulsive voice and tortured reading is enough to drive me to drink (even more than I already do.)
And I would bet big bucks that his fans wouldn’t last through 30 seconds of that drivel because it doesn’t even say BUILD THAT WALL or LOCK HER UP.
It hit me deep in my body, I felt it in my bones, it made me want to stand up and…
puke!
re: #328 Stanley Sea
I think I saw him with the broken leg too! Tangerine bowl in Florida. With Aerosmith. LOL.
I just looked it up—it was the Cheeseburger in Paradise tour in 1978 when I saw him with the broken leg.
Did you ever see the movie “Rancho Deluxe.” He is the singer in all the bar scenes. Movie is probably now considered terribly non PC (Sam Waterston plays a native american—known at the time as an Indian) but I loved the movie when it came out—Jeff Bridges, Slim Pickens,
Elizabeth Ashley, Harry Dean Stanton.
re: #340 jaunte
Oh, yes, the Hillary supporters with their filthy, dirty language:
Trump tears into critics during stop in battleground Florida
[…]
Just three days before Election Day, Trump opened his rally at the Florida State Fairgrounds by criticizing Jay Z for using profanities during a concert supporting Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
“I never said what he said in my life but that shows you the phoniness of politicians and the phoniness of the whole system,” Trump said, implying Clinton was a hypocrite for criticizing his “lewd” language in the past.
[…]
re: #315 BeachDem
Just listening to two minutes of the yam’s repulsive voice and tortured reading
One thing about his delivery that always stands out to me is how lazy it sounds. Some of the words sound like he’s barely summoning the breath to finish the last syllable. I suppose it’s a calculated way to demonstrate that he’s so far above the process he doesn’t really have to try.
re: #341 William Lewis
It started off with my Great Grandfather, I got it when my Grandmother passed &, God willing, my son will pass it on to his child still marking the hours and reeling in the years ;)
You pass on watches, my family passes on tools. I inherited the majority of my grandfather’s toolbox when my grandmother passed; I wield those tools with pride when working on Mrs. Fish’s big beastly tank.
RT @im_tommypickles: IM ALMOST POSITIVE THATS JUST A COOKIE pic.twitter.com/OSr4dKfLYW
— Esther Schindler (@estherschindler) November 5, 2016
Then. This. Happened. pic.twitter.com/eRodyJnali
— Chris Geidner (@chrisgeidner) November 5, 2016
OMG! Lots of pie!
re: #346 thedopefishlives
You pass on watches, my family passes on tools. I inherited the majority of my grandfather’s toolbox when my grandmother passed; I wield those tools with pride when working on Mrs. Fish’s big beastly tank.
I have watches from two Great Grandfathers and one Grandfather, plus a Griswold #6 cast iron skillet from a Grandmother.
re: #349 Blind Frog Belly White
I have watches from two Great Grandfathers and one Grandfather, plus a Griswold #6 cast iron skillet from a Grandmother.
My prize possession is my grandfather’s home-built air compressor. It’s been running for God only knows how many years now.
re: #340 jaunte
Presented without comment: each campaign’s surrogates in Ohio this weekend.
There should be no Mercy Rule in this exercise. Steamroll the arrogant mofo just to demonstrate how it’s done.
re: #346 thedopefishlives
You pass on watches, my family passes on tools. I inherited the majority of my grandfather’s toolbox when my grandmother passed; I wield those tools with pride when working on Mrs. Fish’s big beastly tank.
I have a pair of pliers that were my grandfather’s. They have the initials of his rendering company etched into them. That’s all I got.
From my grandmother, I ended up with a pair of long underwear that have the name of the nursing home she died in next to her initials. They came to me during my hospitalization of two years ago. I figure my crazy mom must have brought them with her.
Nothing from the grandparents on the other side. I should be glad, I think.
re: #345 jaunte
One thing about his delivery that always stands out to me is how lazy it sounds. Some of the words sound like he’s barely summoning the breath to finish the last syllable. I suppose it’s a calculated way to demonstrate that he’s so far above the process he doesn’t really have to try.
I think Samantha Bee hit it—he’s not a good reader/doesn’t know how to read. He sounds completely different when he’s rambling freestyle than when he’s reading a script. He mispronounces words, has no idea what the phrasing should be for his sentences, and sounds like he’s never seen some of the words before in his life.
Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney’s 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.
— Glenn Thrush (@GlennThrush) November 5, 2016
wonder how they define decisively https://t.co/XvsRLACE9T
— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) November 5, 2016
I suspect that ‘decisively’ means ‘by even a single EV’.
re: #353 BeachDem
I think Samantha Bee hit it—he’s not a good reader/doesn’t know how to read. He sounds completely different when he’s rambling freestyle than when he’s reading a script. He mispronounces words, has no idea what the phrasing should be for his sentences, and sounds like he’s never seen some of the words before in his life.
And then he says, ‘And that’s so true, so true’, as if he’d never heard the words before.
re: #352 wrenchwench
My grandfathers’ tools have some sentimental value because both of them were local town handymen in their day, and their tools were their livelihood. They’re well-worn but effective, and to me, they represent the family legacy - the self-sufficient, jack of all trades mentality that marks the fishfolk.
re: #354 Blind Frog Belly White
[Embedded content]
I suspect that ‘decisively’ means ‘by even a single EV’.
Well, I think we have our work cut out for us to be certain that doesn’t happen.
re: #346 thedopefishlives
You pass on watches, my family passes on tools. I inherited the majority of my grandfather’s toolbox when my grandmother passed; I wield those tools with pride when working on Mrs. Fish’s big beastly tank.
my family just passes on neuroses
re: #354 Blind Frog Belly White
[Embedded content]
I suspect that ‘decisively’ means ‘by even a single EV’.
Which will be a mandate for President Trump.
re: #356 thedopefishlives
My grandfathers’ tools have some sentimental value because both of them were local town handymen in their day, and their tools were their livelihood. They’re well-worn but effective, and to me, they represent the family legacy - the self-sufficient, jack of all trades mentality that marks the fishfolk.
The pliers have sentimental value. I even visited the rendering plant a couple of times. The long underwear has thermal value.
re: #360 wrenchwench
The pliers have sentimental value. I even visited the rendering plant a couple of times. The long underwear has thermal value.
I have my grandmother’s recliner. It has comfort value.
re: #353 BeachDem
I think Samantha Bee hit it—he’s not a good reader/doesn’t know how to read. He sounds completely different when he’s rambling freestyle than when he’s reading a script. He mispronounces words, has no idea what the phrasing should be for his sentences, and sounds like he’s never seen some of the words before in his life.
there are a lot of ignorant people
trump’s ignorance has something pathological about it
re: #358 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
my family just passes on neuroses
I was leaving those out. They do seem to become milder through the generations (or maybe the stories from the past lack accuracy).
re: #356 thedopefishlives
My grandfathers’ tools have some sentimental value because both of them were local town handymen in their day, and their tools were their livelihood. They’re well-worn but effective, and to me, they represent the family legacy - the self-sufficient, jack of all trades mentality that marks the fishfolk.
Oh no…the dreaded jack of all trades curse!
You know what they say about those that fashion themselves a jack of all trades don’t you?
(From someone else that likes to try to figure out how everything works and if I can fix it.)
annrose
Nov 05 * 11:01:59 PMThat was absolutely beautiful. I was torn between Hillary and Bernie. Then, on a road trip I listened on the radio to every word in her testimony before the asshat Congressional Republican Benghazi tribunal. I was screaming at the radio, yet she remained cool, calm, collected, and answered every question with class and intelligence. I don’t know how she did it. Shortly thereafter. I was feeling achey and tired and old. Then I thought about Hillary, a woma 3 years older than me, running for President. Suddenly I felt motivated and determined to carry on. If she can stare down all that’s been thrown at her, then I can have her back.
re: #365 ObserverArt
Oh no…the dreaded jack of all trades curse!
You know what they say about those that fashion themselves a jack of all trades don’t you?
(From someone else that likes to try to figure out how everything works and if I can fix it.)
Enlighten me. I don’t think I’ve heard this one.
re: #367 thedopefishlives
Enlighten me. I don’t think I’ve heard this one.
A jack of all trades is a master of none.
Very old tale.
re: #361 thedopefishlives
I have my grandmother’s recliner. It has comfort value.
I can still picture my grampa’s chair. I remember it from before my grandmother had it recovered after he moved out. (He stayed for 49 years. Gramma said the first year was OK. I didn’t get to hear his opinion.)
re: #368 ObserverArt
A jack of all trades is a master of none.
Very old tale.
Ah, yes, okay. I wasn’t sure if that’s where you were going.
This fake website is hell of a ratfucking operation: https://t.co/FNKVZ3yfL8
— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) November 5, 2016
Russians, Macedonians or Roger Stonians?
re: #370 thedopefishlives
Ah, yes, okay. I wasn’t sure if that’s where you were going.
It many times is used by people to be a criticism, though I don’t think in its original thinking it was a negative.
It is anti-specialize thinking, so you are not supposed to be as good as a “real” whatever.
I swear to God, Bobby, if you shit on me I will end your life. pic.twitter.com/twlywJpaGy
— Ray (@SirEviscerate) November 5, 2016
re: #362 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
there are a lot of ignorant people
trump’s ignorance has something pathological about it
Of all the falsehoods that tumble from Trump’s mouth, the strangest ones, Talaga said, are the ones that serve no verifiable purpose.
“There seems no benefit to such outlandish statements,” she wrote. “Trump just seems unable to not say them.”
Donald Trump: The unauthorized database of false things
The Star’s Washington Bureau Chief, Daniel Dale, has been following Donald Trump’s campaign for months. He has fact checked thousands of statements and found hundreds of falsehoods
re: #358 dog philosopher ஐஒஔ௸
my family just passes on neuroses
That’s pretty much what I got from my parents too.
After my dad retired, one of his favorite pastimes was to go dumpster diving at the local mall. He’d pick up shelving and racks and the like. One time he scored a shitload of really great 3/4” plywood that was cut into pieces about 30”x42”. I got to bring about 3 dozen sheets of it home that has been used for garage shelving and other stuff (I still haven’t used it all). When I bought my house he started bringing more stuff home for me to use but I finally had to tell him that I didn’t want a garage filled with stuff so just bring home stuff he wanted for himself.
Of course, I’ve been in my house for 21 years now and the garage is filled with crap.
re: #80 goddamnedfrank
He’s losing it. Rapidly.
re: #372 ObserverArt
It many times is used by people to be a criticism, though I don’t think in its original thinking it was a negative.
It is anti-specialize thinking, so you are not supposed to be as good as a “real” whatever.
I’m probably not as good as a “real” whatever, but I take pride in being able to do a lot of things well. And to be fair, I do have some degree of specialization, so I wouldn’t say master of “none”.
re: #91 wrenchwench
My Imam has a child that married a Native American. :)
re: #375 stpaulbear
That’s pretty much what I got from my parents too.
After my dad retired, one of his favorite pastimes was to go dumpster diving at the local mall. He’d pick up shelving and racks and the like. One time he scored a shitload of really great 3/4” plywood that was cut into pieces about 30”x42”. I got to bring about 3 dozen sheets of it home that has been used for garage shelving and other stuff (I still haven’t used it all). When I bought my house he started bringing more stuff home for me to use but I finally had to tell him that I didn’t want a garage filled with stuff so just bring home stuff he wanted for himself.
Of course, I’ve been in my house for 21 years now and the garage is filled with crap.
At around the 30-year point you will discover that you are using more and more of that crap in useful and innovative ways. It’s rather frightening.
re: #378 Ziggy_TARDIS
My Imam has a child that married a Native American. :)
Must be a difficult Columbus Day dinner.
In the beginning an empty wordpress template:
web.archive.org
Then more but look at “about us” at the bottom:
web.archive.org
Months later still same 2 “news items”:
web.archive.org?
In October of this year the same:
web.archive.org
re: #361 thedopefishlives
I have my grandmother’s recliner. It has comfort value.
I have my grandmother’s pearls that my dad brought back after being one of the occupying troops in Japan. They look real strange with t-shirts and jeans.
re: #379 Decatur Deb
At around the 30-year point you will discover that you are using more and more of that crap in useful and innovative ways. It’s rather frightening.
I don’t think I’ll be here at the 30-year point. I’m retiring in 2-3 years and I don’t want the responsibility of a house built in 1895 at that point. A lot of work was done on the house 20 years ago, but it’s reaching the point where it’s going to be a money pit again.
re: #382 allegro
I have my grandmother’s pearls that my dad brought back after being one of the occupying troops in Japan. They look real strange with t-shirts and jeans.
So I made out. My grandmother’s long underwear fits under my jeans!
Now he wants to help
Just voted!! Woohoo!! HILLARY, dammit! A vote for kindness and compassion and AGAINST misogyny, racism & greed. #USA pic.twitter.com/xclQliSmS3
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) November 5, 2016
re: #196 KGxvi
I don’t trust online polls at all. They completely missed both Brexit, and the last British General Election.
That Roar Hillary ad shows the difference between a professional, and a know-nothing, mango-colored, tiny-fisted fascist. Wow.
In local governance, we get to vote on Measure A in San Diego county:
Half cent increase in sales tax.
I think the proposed expenditures for the most part are needed.
But why the regressive sales tax? Why doesn’t San Diego county get enough revenue from the income tax collected by California to address needed infrastructure?
It’s a quandary for me, because even though I think we need to up our busses and add the very-long-overdue north-south trolley line, the way to pay for these things seems a bit askew to me.
One thing I don’t like is widening highway 67 - the old 67 was a fun drive, and to widen it will also dig up lots of old trees too. I know more people are moving into the county and having a 4 lane instead of a 2 lane road makes driving easier, but in some ways this is just more tearing up the countryside so people can live farther from the center of the city so they can drive more and burn more gasoline…
re: #246 HappyWarrior
There are a lot of positions we vote on that we have no business voting on.
Also, way too many referendums.
Trump is in Minnesota, a +10 Clinton state. Shows he has no idea of what he’s doing. He should be in AZ or FL shoring up close contests.
re: #383 stpaulbear
I don’t think I’ll be here at the 30-year point. I’m retiring in 2-3 years and I don’t want the responsibility of a house built in 1895 at that point. A lot of work was done on the house 20 years ago, but it’s reaching the point where it’s going to be a money pit again.
You’ll finally have the time to rehang that door. (There’s a lot of compatible new DIY tech out there.)
re: #390 BigPapa
Trump is in Minnesota, a +10 Clinton state. Shows he has no idea of what he’s doing. He should be in AZ or FL shoring up close contests.
I’m sure it will thrill my local wingnuts, but the man really is a moron.
Okay, HRC, I know you want some extra money for ad buys but peddling that Nate Silver shit every two hours is not helping your volunteers’ attitude or moods.
re: #393 Timothy Watson
Okay, HRC, I know you want some extra money for ad buys but peddling that Nate Silver shit every two hours is not helping your volunteers’ attitude or moods.
Preach it.
re: #388 freetoken
We have something similar in LA County (and another one in Long Beach specifically). What has surprised me in going through the ballot initiatives is that so many editorial boards are opposed to extending the temporary top income tax rate
re: #391 Decatur Deb
You’ll finally have the time to rehang that door. (There’s a lot of compatible new DIY tech out there.)
Hey, I can do kitchen cabinet hinges now! Well, kinda. There is that one extra hole in the face of one and they aren’t quite, yanno, straight and shit, but they open and close and haven’t fallen off yet!
re: #390 BigPapa
Trump is in Minnesota, a +10 Clinton state. Shows he has no idea of what he’s doing. He should be in AZ or FL shoring up close contests.
And has a speech at 2:00 tomorrow. In an airplane hangar in Minneapolis. During the Vikings game.
re: #397 Frankie Five Angels
And has a speech at 2:00 tomorrow. In an airplane hangar in Minneapolis. During the Vikings game.
It will be a ghost town. But yet, you can be sure he will hype the few people that are there, probably with some snide remark about the fire marshal, no doubt.
re: #391 Decatur Deb
You’ll finally have the time to rehang that door. (There’s a lot of compatible new DIY tech out there.)
But it’s not what I want to do. I’d rather be in an apartment that I can leave for 2-3 weeks at a time and not worry about leaving the house alone.
re: #395 KGxvi
We have something similar in LA County (and another one in Long Beach specifically). What has surprised me in going through the ballot initiatives is that so many editorial boards are opposed to extending the temporary top income tax rate
So your measure is an income tax surtax? Or a separate income tax?
Down here it is strictly a sales tax.
Reading online opponents to the measure gives me a bad feeling out our Measure A. Southern Californians love cars and the new trolley line looks more like smoke and mirrors than real planning.
Hrm, I got a real humdinger written up, but I don’t think I have the right skillz for photoshopping fake emails. :/
re: #392 thedopefishlives
I’m sure it will thrill my local wingnuts, but the man really is a moron.
I know jack about politics but figure he should be in FL, OH, MI, or PA. Going to a state that has been solid blue for years with a 10 point deficit is just idiotic.
I guess he’s just next door but a plane flight to OH/PA/MI would only be another hour.
This election year reinforces the need to marry someone that has similar political views as myself; I’ll be damned to marry a conservative
— دانیال (@danja84) November 5, 2016
re: #393 Timothy Watson
Okay, HRC, I know you want some extra money for ad buys
Nope. Ad buys this late in the game are pretty much useless. What they want is for people to dig into their pockets for loose change, five bucks or ten bucks and donate it to her campaign. It’s called a “buy-in” in sales, when someone commits to a cause with their own money. Anyone who does that is more likely to go out and vote on Tuesday instead of saying “Why bother?” and now it’s GOTV time when both campaigns start digging down the side of the sofa for spare voters.
re: #403 BigPapa
I know jack about politics but figure he should be in FL, OH, MI, or PA. Going to a state that has been solid blue for years with a 10 point deficit is just idiotic.
I guess he’s just next door but a plane flight to OH/PA/MI would only be another hour.
He had originally planned to be in WI, which would make much more sense. I suspect he may have canceled over some dispute with Paul Ryan?
Trump intro speaker attacks election officials for keeping polls open in Nevada so “a certain group” could vote
“you feel free right now?”— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) November 5, 2016
Nevada GOP chair upset election officials aren’t violating election law and disenfranchising voters standing in long lines at closing time. https://t.co/w9qO2sWRW4
— Franksgiving (@goddamnedfrank) November 6, 2016
Zero. Esp. as that is a fake site. Check Wayback Machine. A computer nerd should know better. @causticbob
— Sergey Romanov (@S_ergeyR_omanov) November 6, 2016
Trump intro speaker attacks election officials for keeping polls open in Nevada so “a certain group” could vote
“you feel free right now?”— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) November 5, 2016
Nevada GOP chair.
re: #407 goddamnedfrank
[Embedded content]
[Embedded content]
Why does it matter if “a certain group” does or doesn’t vote? Isn’t suffrage for all in this country? Oh, wait, I forgot - they want to return to the days of landed white men voters.
Even the smaller (just $2B) Blue line trolley extension is full of contention:
The debate in San Diego County over how aggressively to pursue public transit has intensified in recent years.
Most notably, SANDAG’s $214 billion spending plan for transportation through 2050 is pending review at the California Supreme Court. The agency appealed to the high court after green groups successfully sued it for emphasizing freeways and failing to curb greenhouse-gas emissions to conform with state standards.
In contrast, the city of San Diego has for years called for dense, walkable neighborhoods centered on public transit. It’s often referred to as the “city of villages” strategy.
[…]
San Diego county is relatively large and the population spread out (on the west side of the mountains). Only about a third of the county population live in the city proper.
The suburban sprawlers want more roads. So now they are going to raise sales tax on everyone, rather than an additional gasoline tax to pay for roads.
It’s our own little version of us-vs-them.
re: #406 thedopefishlives
He had originally planned to be in WI, which would make much more sense. I suspect he may have canceled over some dispute with Paul Ryan?
Maybe. But WI is +10 for Clinton as well. Not complaining, I hope he wastes his time. But I’d be pounding the Toss Up states hard, starting in FL/GA/NC. All close together.
The mind reels at all the options. I think she’ll still win but it’s pretty dicey: we really need a devastating blowout. A close election will feel like a hollow victory. It won’t be a hollow victory, but it will still no feel all that good.
Another day yet another GOP Pollster on the phone asking me if I am going to vote for God’s Man or Crooked Hillary.
Why I just had to tell her that, yes I am voting for Gawd’s Man while I am doing my damnedest to suppress snickering!
re: #401 freetoken
So your measure is an income tax surtax? Or a separate income tax?
Down here it is strictly a sales tax.
Reading online opponents to the measure gives me a bad feeling out our Measure A. Southern Californians love cars and the new trolley line looks more like smoke and mirrors than real planning.
Sorry, the income tax thing was about the statewide prop 55. Our Measure M is a sales tax for roads that I’m fairly skeptical of. Our Measure A is property tax to replace expiring funds like 1.5 cents per square foot. The city wide stuff has to do with weed. There’s so much on the ballot this time that I keep mixing stuff up
re: #414 KGxvi
Sorry, the income tax thing was about the statewide prop 55. Our Measure M is a sales tax for road safety that I’m fairly skeptical of. Our Measure A Ian a property tax to replace expiring funds like 1.5 cents per square foot. The city wide stuff has to do with weed. There’s so much on the ballot this time that I keep mixing stuff up
Yeah, I voted Yes on Los Angeles County measure A and M, Community College measure CC and Yes on City measures HHH, JJJ and SSS. But I voted No on RRR.
re: #414 KGxvi
Sorry, the income tax thing was about the statewide prop 55. Our Measure M is a sales tax for road safety that I’m fairly skeptical of. Our Measure A Ian a property tax to replace expiring funds like 1.5 cents per square foot. The city wide stuff has to do with weed. There’s so much on the ballot this time that I keep mixing stuff up
The only thing we have on our ballot up here is a measure to designate a citizen panel to set legislator salaries… I’m not entirely sure how I feel about that one. I do think congresscritters are a bit overpaid, but I feel that the system that’s being proposed (by the libertarians, natch) would just wind up being petty and vindictive and kick off a stupid power struggle.
re: #414 KGxvi
Sorry, the income tax thing was about the statewide prop 55. Our Measure M is a sales tax for road safety that I’m fairly skeptical of. Our Measure A Ian a property tax to replace expiring funds like 1.5 cents per square foot. The city wide stuff has to do with weed. There’s so much on the ballot this time that I keep mixing stuff up
We’re voting on 14 amendments to the state constitution, including one that would reduce the number of amendments we’ll have to vote on from now on.
Nevada RNC chair upset polls stayed open late Friday in Clark County so all voters- mostly Latino- could vote, calls them “certain people” pic.twitter.com/rk3VwY88YN
— Salvador Hernandez (@SalHernandez) November 6, 2016
re: #416 thedopefishlives
Then again, I note with some interest that the state’s Republicans are the ones who overwhelmingly voted against it when it came up as legislation. Now it’s going to the Minnesota voters as a Constitutional amendment.
re: #416 thedopefishlives
In Long Beach we have 17 statewide iniatives, two county measures, one school bond measure, and two city measures (both on weed). The ballot for offices and ballot measures is eight pages long
re: #413 Joe Bacon
Another day yet another GOP Pollster on the phone asking me if I am going to vote for God’s Man or Crooked Hillary.
Why I just had to tell her that, yes I am voting for Gawd’s Man while I am doing my damnedest to suppress snickering!
see!!!!
this is why the polls ARE all wrong!
Bernie holds rally for Hillary in IA. Student introducer goes way off script, trashes Hillary, is led off stage. https://t.co/rN1ufLtjid
— Byron York (@ByronYork) November 5, 2016
All Russian channels, trolls and polticians are against Clinton, for Trump. Putin has made his position clear. Emails are a dud. @scomvp
— Sergey Romanov (@S_ergeyR_omanov) November 6, 2016
these people…
Trump campaign sources believe MN is in play, internal polling has Trump down 3, adding MN stop tomorrow. Say WI still in plaY.
— Sarah McCammon NPR (@sarahmccammon) November 6, 2016
*ALMOST* this entire line outside @NCState to vote early just before the 1pm cut off. Everyone in a good mood - pizza is coming. pic.twitter.com/mn8AoJ4NOq
— Sean Gallitz (@seangallitz) November 5, 2016
From college campuses to poor communities to anywhere: it is an act of voter suppression to not provide enough voting machines at locations. https://t.co/fh8rLn9pYe
— Cory Booker (@CoryBooker) November 5, 2016
Democrats are pulling out every notable Democrat they can find.
Bon Jovi is in Florida helping Hillary.
Jon Bon Jovi in #Florida pic.twitter.com/BTSpZG2lv3
— Hillary In Pictures (@HillaryPix) November 6, 2016
re: #418 jaunte
[Embedded content]
Translation:
More of those damn minorities were allowed to vote. FUCK THAT!
re: #412 BigPapa
Maybe. But WI is +10 for Clinton as well. Not complaining, I hope he wastes his time. But I’d be pounding the Toss Up states hard, starting in FL/GA/NC. All close together.
The mind reels at all the options. I think she’ll still win but it’s pretty dicey: we really need a devastating blowout. A close election will feel like a hollow victory. It won’t be a hollow victory, but it will still no feel all that good.
Maybe it’s just the Pollyanna in me and faith in the genuine goodness of the American people, but everything I’m seeing tells me that we are going to see that devastating blowout. It will be an historic victory. As a woman who spent a career constantly teetering on the razor edge in the Good Ol’ Boys club with too many deep, bloody wounds to count over 30+ years, it will be in a way life validating, that maybe it was all worth it.
Hillary has got this.
re: #424 Backwoods_Sleuth
these people…
[Embedded content]
Internal polling?
Are they still getting and believing polling from the guy they are refusing to pay $750,000?
re: #427 GlutenFreeJesus
Do you [white people] feel free? Well, do ya?!!!
re: #426 Ziggy_TARDIS
Democrats are pulling out every notable Democrat they can find.
Bon Jovi is in Florida helping Hillary.
We’re going to need moar Chachi!
re: #429 b.d.
Internal polling?
Are they still getting and believing polling from the guy they are refusing to pay $750,000?
Maybe they switched over to Reagan’s Astrologer!
re: #423 Nyet
@scomvp @S_ergeyR_omanov you can’t blackmail someone with made up bullshit.
— efuseakay (@efuseakay) November 6, 2016
re: #428 allegro
Maybe it’s just the Pollyanna in me and faith in the genuine goodness of the American people, but everything I’m seeing tells me that we are going to see that devastating blowout. It will be an historic victory. As a woman who spent a career constantly teetering on the razor edge in the Good Ol’ Boys club with too many deep, bloody wounds to count over 30+ years, it will be in a way life validating, that maybe it was all worth it.
Hillary has got this.
Oh, I hope so!
Trump: “We didn’t bring any so-called stars along. Didn’t need them. … We can get stars. We don’t need them.”
— Amanda Terkel (@aterkel) November 6, 2016
You jealous, bro?
re: #429 b.d.
Internal polling?
Are they still getting and believing polling from the guy they are refusing to pay $750,000?
Hey boss, this poll we just did for Trump says he’s down 13 in Minnesota, should we send it over?
Yeah, but delete the 1 first, fuck that guy
Trump tells Reno: Clark County polls kept open beyond closing time to bus in Democrats. ‘It’s a rigged system & we’re going to beat it.’
— Michael Finnegan (@finneganLAT) November 6, 2016
re: #435 jaunte
Like Trump could stand to be on stage with someone who might get a bigger applause than he does
Okay, my fake Wikileaks dump is go:
Most shocking #Wikileaks dump yet! Worse than #SpiritCooking! Be sure you share this horrifying & **TRUE** #ClintonSatanicTimeTravel news! pic.twitter.com/cX8pTds0IW
— Scott Slemmons (@SSlemmons) November 6, 2016
Making fake stuff makes me nervous, and I’ll probably have to go throw up now. :/
re: #428 allegro
Maybe it’s just the Pollyanna in me and faith in the genuine goodness of the American people, but everything I’m seeing tells me that we are going to see that devastating blowout. It will be an historic victory. As a woman who spent a career constantly teetering on the razor edge in the Good Ol’ Boys club with too many deep, bloody wounds to count over 30+ years, it will be in a way life validating, that maybe it was all worth it.
Hillary has got this.
Wear white on Tuesday. I am.
A good friend posted this today on FB. I don’t think he’d mind me sharing:
My God, how did it come to this?
In countless ways, this election has been enormously different from four years ago. Have we changed as a country this much in four years? Has twitter ravaged our brains and debased us this much in just four years?
The first time I realized this was when Trump publicly denigrated John McCain’s military service, and didn’t lose any popularity. Trump, a man who avoided military service because of “heel spurs” and later said that his sexual activity in the ’70s was his own personal Viet Nam, said “I like people who don’t get captured.”
The sheer audacity of it, the sacrilege, meant nothing to his followers. In any other campaign year in my lifetime, that display would have ended any candidacy immediately. We all know it. Imagine if any Republican candidate in the last twenty years had said it - Mitt Romney, either of the Bushes, or even any of the other Republican candidates from this election cycle. None would have survived the backlash for more than 24 hours.
And yet … this draft-dodging profligate says it and suffers not one bit.
The badmouthing of a Gold Star mother, the wholesale denigration of two entire races, the encouragement of violence, the threat to imprison his opponent, the admission of sexual predation, the objectification of women, the business failures, the avoidance of taxes, the non-publishing of his tax returns, the impending trials for fraud and rape, the Trump Foundation’s unusual funding and spending, the de facto bribery of Florida’s attorney general, the mockery of the disabled, the adulation of Vladimir Putin, the ties of Paul Manafort to Soviet dominance of Ukraine, the history of shortchanging small business vendors, the shift of his personal debt into corporate debt while somehow getting paid millions to manage casinos that never made money. As he himself said, he did fantastic in Atlantic City. No one else did. So what. Not my problem.
I’m a genius, or someone I’ve hired but may or may not have paid is.
And yet, nearly half of Americans say that’s just fine. No problem. Get on board.
The networks have been complicit in making an election not an exercise in public discourse and rational discussion of issues, but rather a running soap opera of shallow characterizations and vicious fighting that has made them hundreds of millions of dollars. The president of CBS admitted it early on. CNN hires a former campaign manager, while still on the payroll of the Trump campaign, a man who has signed an agreement never to disparage Trump, and provide him and other surrogates a soapbox. It’s all good, right? We’re making money hand over fist. So what if we’re dragging public discourse into the gutter? So what if we’re helping to encourage and normalize violence and attack-mode politics? We’re making money. We have a duty to our shareholders, after all.
Money. The love of money, the adoration of those who have it, the drive to get it and keep it, at any cost to the environment, our communities, other people, and our souls.
It’s not ironic that the people who seem to love Trump the most are poor. He tells them what they think they want to hear, because, of course, he is a salesman. He’s been pitching poor suckers all of his life. If you just do what I do, you will get rich, like me. Isn’t that the essence of Trump University? Vote for me and I’ll set you free, trust me.
Trust me.
There will be so much winning you will get tired of winning. I am your path to wealth and happiness, and I am the ONLY path.
The weak have always loved a strongman.
If he can use someone else’s money, and then stiff them, all the better. He’s a good businessman. That’s how you get rich. To get ahead you have to step on people. There are only winners and losers. There is no such thing as a win-win.
He’s never wrong. He’s never at fault. He will never apologize, or if he does, it’s the “if I’ve offended anyone” non-apology apology.
He doesn’t need to elucidate any well-reasoned, rational policy, viewpoint, or proposed action, just throw out a word vomit salad of hatred, blame, accusations and lies. The simpler and more absurd, the better. Like a spoiled brat on a sandlot playground, he lays out his third-grade agenda:
I will build a wall, and I won’t pay for it.
I will send all the bad people away and keep them out.
I will put anyone I don’t like into prison, where they belong.
I will kiss and fondle any girl I want.
I will call any girl I don’t like a fat pig and a dog.
I will sue you into oblivion, and then I won’t pay my lawyers.
You are either with me, or not.
And I will destroy you if you aren’t with me.
My God, how did it come to this?
Not surprisingly, no major newspaper has endorsed him. Many have written impassioned pleas not to vote for him. Many in his own party - the ones who have the backbone to stand up to him - have spoken out against him. Those without backbone have cowered or feigned ignorance.
His ghost writer has said he has an attention span of a kindergartner, and that if the conversation is not about him and how he can increase his wealth or prestige, he is simply not interested. His son pitched a primary opponent on the idea of being the vice-president by saying that he would be in charge of “all domestic and foreign policy.” And, when asked what he, Trump, would be doing, the reply was “making America great again.”
He has no clue how to do the job. He does not want to work that hard. He doesn’t have the mental discipline to spend any time practicing for a debate. He doesn’t have the mental capacity to recognize nuance. He can’t be bothered with policy because it’s just too hard.
His State of the Union address will fit on a hat or in a tweet. It will say in essence, “I’m so great.”
His is a black and white world. The reptilian brain, after all, is only capable of reacting to its environment.
Attack. Pursue. Eat. Fuck.
This.
Really? It’s a bad joke, right? I’m dreaming, right?
This man?
No.
re: #435 jaunte
[Embedded content]
You jealous, bro?
Who, Mr. Wrestling Showtime Hotel/Casino Pageant Owner/Lurker TV Star The Donald Trump?
He’s on the cheap…not enough OPM.
Vote riding a bus apparently less worthy than vote riding a limo.
re: #405 Nojay UK
Nope. Ad buys this late in the game are pretty much useless. What they want is for people to dig into their pockets for loose change, five bucks or ten bucks and donate it to her campaign. It’s called a “buy-in” in sales, when someone commits to a cause with their own money. Anyone who does that is more likely to go out and vote on Tuesday instead of saying “Why bother?” and now it’s GOTV time when both campaigns start digging down the side of the sofa for spare voters.
Oh, I know it’s GOTV time. I did three canvass packets today. :)
(shameless attempt at extra karma)
re: #427 GlutenFreeJesus
re: #418 jaunte
[Embedded content]
Translation: “More of those damn minorities were allowed to vote. FUCK THAT!”
You kick me, spit on me, stomp me, take a dump on me, then you place your foot on my neck to keep me from getting up, and you’re upset that I use my vote to show you how I feel about your having disrespected me? These tools live in an alternate reality. I’ve already voted early here in GA, and I’m encouraging everyone I know/meet to vote for HRC and not wait or think their vote doesn’t count.
@jaunte @aterkel In other words Scott Baio and Jon Voight missed their Greyhound connection…
— josephebacon (@josephebacon) November 6, 2016
re: #445 KGxvi
Dog whistle invoking school intergration?
More a suggestion of poverty and sheepish control by the plantation/machine.
re: #428 allegro
Maybe it’s just the Pollyanna in me and faith in the genuine goodness of the American people, but everything I’m seeing tells me that we are going to see that devastating blowout. It will be an historic victory. As a woman who spent a career constantly teetering on the razor edge in the Good Ol’ Boys club with too many deep, bloody wounds to count over 30+ years, it will be in a way life validating, that maybe it was all worth it.
Hillary has got this.
I can see it in my wife who is thinking not only of herself but our 12yo nieces. I hear it in my mom’s voice.
This is a big fucking deal beside the fact that Trump is a tyrant and Hillary is a highly qualified candidate.
I hope next Tuesday will be Nasty Tuesday. Thoroughly and unequivocally Nasty.
re: #428 allegro
You think she pulls off Ohio?
re: #450 Joe Bacon
[Embedded content]
Trump in Reno still seems pretty bent out of shape about Clinton having celebrities at her events. “It’s because she can’t fill a room”
— Rosie Gray (@RosieGray) November 6, 2016
#TrumpNV Reno Roars: LOCK HER UP! Trump: “Folks, she shouldn’t be allowed to run.”
— Moderates 4 Trump (@tigertrollz2) November 6, 2016
Trump is transferring his birther invalidation to Hillary.
re: #456 b.d.
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See what happens when people flee a Trump Rally when James Woods, Nick Searcy, Jon Voight, Scott Baio, Vince Vaughn, Wayne Newton, Kelsey Grammer and Ted Nugent are on stage with Patricia Heaton leading a squad of Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders…
re: #458 jaunte
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Trump is transferring his birther invalidation to Hillary.
Same ol’ Same ol’: Democratic wins are inherently illegitimate, because God would never let a Dem win without cheating.
re: #456 b.d.
Hillary gets Jay-Z, Beyonce, Katy Perry, and Lebron. Trump Gets Joe Piscopo.
re: #444 Barefoot Grin
Trump is not him. He’s them.
re: #441 scottslemmons
Okay, my fake Wikileaks dump is go:
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Making fake stuff makes me nervous, and I’ll probably have to go throw up now. :/
you had me at “Kinsey”
Florida looks like its seriously in play. PA looks Clinton, OH looks Trump.
Florida goes Clinton there’s no chance for Cheeto.
re: #454 BigPapa
I can see it in my wife who is thinking not only of herself but our 12yo nieces. I hear it in my mom’s voice.
This is a big fucking deal beside the fact that Trump is a tyrant and Hillary is a highly qualified candidate.
I hope next Tuesday will be Nasty Tuesday. Thoroughly and unequivocally Nasty.
Seriously I have tears in my eyes reading that. This is big. HISTORY
Trump intro speaker attacks election officials for keeping polls open in Nevada so “a certain group” could vote
“you feel free right now?”— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) November 5, 2016
They’re called Americans. https://t.co/xxLAQXQ2yX
— Josh Greenman (@joshgreenman) November 5, 2016
re: #455 Frankie Five Angels
You think she pulls off Ohio?
Hell, I’m thinking she can pull off Texas! At the least, turn it purple. I’m seeing revolution around me and…
re: #459 Joe Bacon
See what happens when people flee a Trump Rally when James Woods, Nick Searcy, Jon Voight, Scott Baio, Vince Vaughn, Wayne Newton, Kelsey Grammer and Ted Nugent are on stage with Patricia Heaton leading a squad of Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders…
Now that’s an image that will tough to remove from my brain. Ewwww
re: #30 The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Props that they can spell “masturbators” correctly—very rare among RWNJs…but then they can’t spell “idolators”?
It’s idolater.
Dang it.
Engraved forever in my memory because that’s the word that knocked me out of the national spelling bee in junior high — 14th place in the Colorado-Wyoming spell-off, 1970.
**SNIFF!!!!!**
re: #470 CleverToad
It’s idolater.
Dang it.
Engraved forever in my memory because that’s the word that knocked me out of the national spelling bee in junior high — 14th place in the Colorado-Wyoming spell-off, 1970.**SNIFF!!!!!**
You wuz robbed—“idolators” is correct.
Just saw video from about 13 min ago —Trump removed quickly by security from stage at Nevada rally.
Edit: Been browsing Randy Newman vids. I see LGF has covered this.
re: #432 Joe Bacon
Maybe they switched over to Reagan’s Astrologer!
Now, that would be impressive (she died in 2004).
re: #334 Charles Johnson
I truly hoped he posted circuit diagrams on how to make one.
re: #426 Ziggy_TARDIS
Democrats are pulling out every notable Democrat they can find.
Bon Jovi is in Florida helping Hillary.
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I didn’t get in, unfortunately. The line was so long when I got there and they came back around 630pm to tell us they were at max capacity already. About 500 not able to get in I’d guess. (Why they booked the small State Theatre I’ve no idea when the Coliseum would’ve been better). Anyway they had the street across blocked off with a huge screen and handed out free vouchers for use at 3 food trucks, including one taco truck natch. They promised a special guest and it was indeed Tim Kaine who spoke for about 5 minutes. Not close enough to get a good pic. But glad I went anyway.
Now we have Jimmy Buffet having a rally on Monday night, may try that with better luck since it’s outside.
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