Sheer Beauty: Brad Mehldau, “After Bach” (Live at Philharmonie De Paris), Part 1

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Brad Mehldau performs the C# Major Prelude from Book I of Bach’s Well-Tempered Clavier and his own Three Pieces After Bach: I. Rondo live in the Grande Salle Pierre Boulez of the Philharmonie de Paris on April 2, 2018.

Brad Mehldau’s album ‘After Bach’ is available at smarturl.it

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471 comments

1
I Would Prefer Not To  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:09:19am

It’s 2Pm local time and I just woke up. the Virus is fucking with my sleep patterns, but I’m feeling a little better. Life is OK.

2
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:12:33am

re: #1 I Would Prefer Not To

My sleep patterns get fucked up when I get sick too. I usually don’t fight it. If my body wants me to sleep, I sleep.

3
BlueSpotinAL  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:15:07am

New thread, so FUCK TRUMP.

4
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:15:36am

Every time you see a story like this you should get angry, not reassured.

5
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:20:12am

I don’t remember this kind of statement from Pompeasshole when his Saudi Royal terrorist buddies murdered a US news reporter in Turkey.

edited

6
BigPapa  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:20:24am

I think *everybody’s* sleep patterns will be out of whack. Def people with infection as their bodies fight it off. But generally, most everyone else dealing with stress may sleep a little or a lot more. Even you introverts.

7
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:21:10am

Good afternoon. Today is a good day to be an introvert.

8
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:21:36am

Corrupt weaklings, keeping mum.

9
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:23:22am

re: #4 goddamnedfrank

Like every goddamn coffee can or jar on counters at restaurants and convenience stores with the picture of a kid or wife or brother or father who got sick and needs to ask for the kindness of strangers to help because our system is broken.
After what my family went through WITH insurance, if my kid died I’d probably be in prison.

10
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:25:30am
11
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:28:35am

Apparently the new dirtbag left talking point on Biden is that he’s a rapist. I looked into the evidence this morning, and it’s REALLY thin. And it was first promoted by The Intercept, which is a big red flag for me.

12
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:31:36am

re: #11 Charles Johnson

Apparently the new dirtbag left talking point on Biden is that he’s a rapist. I looked into the evidence this morning, and it’s REALLY thin. And it was first promoted by The Intercept, which is a big red flag for me.

To call it “thin” is to be charitable.

13
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:32:07am
14
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:32:37am

re: #10 Dave In Austin

[Embedded content]

Berners won’t admit they fucked up, they’ll double down and say he’s right to say that it’s better to vote for Trump than Biden.

15
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:33:33am

re: #13 Charles Johnson

That’s funny. Also, he sounds like Donald Trump with all those imaginary friends.

16
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:35:28am

re: #10 Dave In Austin

[Embedded content]

17
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:35:31am
18
retired cynic  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:39:27am

Today’s Science Lesson: New Tone’s Three Laws of Misdirection, driftglass

— I thought it might be helpful to review three of the immutable laws of physics under which the media operates.

New Tone’s First Law states that while Donald Trump is clearly a lying sociopathic threat to the nation, the media will collectively agree to ignore it as best it can and hope for the best.

New Tone’s Second Law states that, when overwhelmed by events he cannot immediately lie his way out of, Donald Trump will grudgingly become slightly less vulgar and will sniffle and stumble slowly through remarks prepared by other people. The media will then hailed this development as Trump finally “becoming the president”.

New Tone’s Third Law states that every time events force Donald Trump to become momentarily less of a lying assbag, he will almost immediately explode with an over-the-top-loathsome opposite reaction. To which the media will react with surprise, as if no one could possibly have seen that coming.

19
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:39:30am

So we were talking about dirtbags, and lo and behold…………..

20
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:40:29am

re: #17 Dread Pirate

[Embedded content]

According to analysts at JPMorgan, who created and coined the “Volfefe Index” — a combination of the word “volatility” and the infamous Trump “covfefe” tweet (more on that in a bit) — Trump’s missives related to trade and monetary policy, specifically, have been pushing markets around.

21
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:41:56am

re: #6 BigPapa

I think *everybody’s* sleep patterns will be out of whack. Def people with infection as their bodies fight it off. But generally, most everyone else dealing with stress may sleep a little or a lot more. Even you introverts.

I’m actually drinking, something I almost never do, as I’m feeling we especially anxious today.

2 shots of Malibu, 1/2 cup hot water, and a solid squeeze of lime juice (coz that’s what I’ve got). Bottoms up, y’all.

22
retired cynic  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:42:12am
23
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:43:57am

re: #21 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

I’m actually drinking, something I almost never do, as I’m feeling we especially anxious today.

2 shots of Malibu, 1/2 cup hot water, and a solid squeeze of lime juice (coz that’s what I’ve got). Bottoms up, y’all.

cheers, I finally opened one of the bottles of white wine sitting in my cupboard to go along with my salmon, and am on my way to finishing it, which I almost never do (most of them get used up as cooking wine after they have gone off after sitting unfinished for a week)

24
BigPapa  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:45:00am

re: #21 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

I’m actually drinking, something I almost never do, as I’m feeling we especially anxious today.

2 shots of Malibu, 1/2 cup hot water, and a solid squeeze of lime juice (coz that’s what I’ve got). Bottoms up, y’all.

I picked a bad time to quit drinking… LOL. But it’s time for me. So I cook more and drink lots of water. I smoke a little but haven’t increased to compensate.

25
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:45:03am

Somebody must be reading us……………….

26
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:45:34am

re: #21 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

I’m actually drinking, something I almost never do, as I’m feeling we especially anxious today.

2 shots of Malibu, 1/2 cup hot water, and a solid squeeze of lime juice (coz that’s what I’ve got). Bottoms up, y’all.

re: #23 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

cheers, I finally opened one of the bottles of white wine sitting in my cupboard to go along with my salmon, and am on my way to finishing it, which I almost never do (most of them get used up as cooking wine after they have gone off after sitting unfinished for a week)

Teatotaller here. Might smoke like a chimney tho.

27
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:46:31am
28
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:49:16am
29
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:51:51am

A vote for Bernie is a vote for Trump. Rogan is just eliminating the middle man.

30
Citizen K  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:52:45am

re: #11 Charles Johnson

Apparently the new dirtbag left talking point on Biden is that he’s a rapist. I looked into the evidence this morning, and it’s REALLY thin. And it was first promoted by The Intercept, which is a big red flag for me.

re: #12 Targetpractice

To call it “thin” is to be charitable.

Yeah, but it doesn’t matter how much ‘there’ is there. It’s all about the ratfuck and ensuring that the Dem party is treated as Public Enemy #1 instead of Trump and the GOP. And it’ll work enough to throw the game at least in the short term, because the media always has to find ways to equivocate and pretend the GOP and Dem party are on even keel.

31
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:54:23am
32
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:57:20am

Looks like Joe “Dick” Rogan woke up a lot of people today.
Like a “Best Of Joe Shitting Himself” album just dropped.
Sweet.

33
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:58:21am
34
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:59:07am
35
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 11:59:33am

We’re number one!!!1!

Alabama projected to have highest death rate, fourth most coronavirus deaths in nation
al.com

If you can beat the SEC, you’ve got it in the body bag.

36
BlueSpotinAL  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:01:27pm

Is Susan Collins concerned yet over Trump firing IG Atkinson?

37
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:01:44pm

The Berners I’m seeing on Twitter are doubling down, declaring that Rogan’s statement totally proves their point that Bernie’s message had such crossover appeal that Trump voters would be willing to vote for him but not Biden. That “the establishment” totally botched this whole election by going with Biden when they could have had a winning hand in electing the guy that Trump supporters would support.

So, for those taking notes at home, Berners believe that the guy who is “no different” from Trump (Biden) was a mistake to nominate because he doesn’t appeal to Trump voters, while the guy who Trump voters portray as the second-coming of Stalin (Bernie) would have been amazing as the nominee because he’d bring those Trump voters into his camp.

38
Hecuba's daughter  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:01:58pm

So I just got through half of Bill Maher’s Friday night program while doing the treadmill — managed to make it through the Bernie interview. One infuriating part was Bill telling Bernie how physically unfit the average American and what he thinks should be done. The infuriating part was that neither of them mentioned that was Michelle’s mission while the Obamas were in the WH, and the Republicans mocked this platform every second. Bernie is great at that — taking credit for other’s hard work.

39
retired cynic  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:02:14pm

DHS Decides Obama-era Immigration Rules Are Okay Now by JM Ashby, bobcesca.com

This may be too optimistic a take, but given the ongoing pandemic and the limited amount of time between now and the November election, it’s possible Trump’s mass deportation days are done. Not because he lost the desire to deport more people; because it’s just not practical to continue that politically-motivated side-campaign right now.

40
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:03:32pm
41
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:04:47pm

re: #33 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

My response was Bernie never gave me a reason to vote for him, but these shitheads thought “He’s the nominee, vote blue no matter who!” was all they needed to get my vote.

42
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:05:20pm

Mad Magazine may be gone, but satire lives here.

43
retired cynic  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:09:16pm

The Antidote to Trump’s Orwellian Lies
Adam Schiff wants a 9/11-style commission to study this administration’s failures during the coronavirus crisis. by Nancy LeTourneau (smartypants60 on Twitter), Washington Monthly

The antidote to the constant stream of Orwellian propaganda coming from Trump and his enablers is a grounding in the truth provided by people who have demonstrated that they recognize the depths to which this president has already gone. I can think of no one who would perform that task better than Representative Adam Schiff.

44
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:10:12pm
45
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:11:05pm

re: #38 Hecuba’s daughter

So I just got through half of Bill Maher’s Friday night program while doing the treadmill — managed to make it through the Bernie interview. One infuriating part was Bill telling Bernie how physically unfit the average American and what he thinks should be done. The infuriating part was that neither of them mentioned that was Michelle’s mission while the Obamas were in the WH, and the Republicans mocked this platform every second. Bernie is great at that — taking credit for other’s hard work.

But Max Brooks was really good, right? Made it worth all the rest of the show. (and Bill Maher’s landscape designer and/or gardener is really really good, definite recommend after seeing where he taped from)

46
Hecuba's daughter  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:11:58pm

Germany is now up to almost 1.5% mortality rate — and over 2/3 of their total cases are still active. I fear that my projected 1.5% mortality rate was way too optimistic. We are in the midst of a nightmare that will continue until there is a vaccine or a real cure. And the stay-at-home orders will have to strengthen to approach closer to the European model.

47
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:12:06pm

About the only thing funnier than Berners trying to convince themselves that Rogan ever supported Bernie’s policies…is Berners thinking he’s representative of “swing voters” who Bernie could totally win the election by appealing to.

48
Hecuba's daughter  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:13:32pm

re: #45 sagehen

But Max Brooks was really good, right? Made it worth all the rest of the show. (and Bill Maher’s landscape designer and/or gardener is really really good, definite recommend after seeing where he taped from)

The last half of show is reserved for tomorrow’s treadmill exercise!

49
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:13:46pm

re: #43 retired cynic

The Antidote to Trump’s Orwellian Lies
Adam Schiff wants a 9/11-style commission to study this administration’s failures during the coronavirus crisis. by Nancy LeTourneau (smartypants60 on Twitter), Washington Monthly

considering the death toll is already 2000 Benghazis and rising (or 2.5 9/11’s)… sounds reasonable,.

50
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:14:25pm

re: #46 Hecuba’s daughter

Germany is now up to almost 1.5% mortality rate — and over 2/3 of their total cases are still active. I fear that my projected 1.5% mortality rate was way too optimistic. We are in the midst of a nightmare that will continue until there is a vaccine or a real cure. And the stay-at-home orders will have to strengthen to approach closer to the European model.

(Diamond Princess)

51
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:15:11pm

re: #35 Decatur Deb

That’s based on the IHME projection, made on 1 April. IHME promised an update based on more information, an update promised today:

As the pandemic progresses, we are working to incorporate new data about the virus in the US. Please check back on Saturday, April 4 for our next update.

But I’ve not seen anything new yet on their site.

52
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:17:33pm

53
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:17:42pm

I got tired of stagecoach robber chic with my scarf collection and made myself a face mask.

Don’t leave home without it.
54
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:18:43pm

a shout out to McDonald’s and BK!

55
Renaissance_Man  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:19:00pm

As numbers and bodies continue to climb in the US, I expect the nation to follow the lead of other similar dictatorships and failed states, such as Iran, Russia, and China, in simply lying about the numbers, while erasing records and discrediting any who say otherwise.

56
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:20:18pm

re: #55 Renaissance_Man

As numbers and bodies continue to climb in the US, I expect the nation to follow the lead of other similar dictatorships and failed states, such as Iran, Russia, and China, in simply lying about the numbers, while erasing records and discrediting any who say otherwise.

If it were possible, I’m sure they would, but too much of the recordkeeping is out of their hands.

57
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:20:37pm

re: #54 Backwoods_Sleuth

a shout out to McDonald’s and BK!

[Embedded content]

So…who wants to tell him that farmers are plowing their fields under because his hatred of brown people has left them with nobody to pick their produce?

58
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:20:46pm

re: #53 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

I got tired of stagecoach robber chic with my scarf collection and made myself a face mask.

[Embedded content]

I’ve got the best part of a Scott air-pak around here. That would freak them at the drive-thru.

59
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:21:37pm

re: #56 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

If it were possible, I’m sure they would, but too much of the recordkeeping is out of their hands.

They’ve found a simpler solution: Keep the supply of tests artificially low so that any deaths of those not tested can be written off as “unknown causes.”

60
Omar Comin’ Yo  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:22:34pm

an oldie…………..later

Giant Teddy Bear Prank On Husband

61
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:23:39pm

re: #59 Targetpractice

They’ve found a simpler solution: Keep the supply of tests artificially low so that any deaths of those not tested can be written off as “unknown causes.”

And that’s not going to work either. States are stepping up and producing/using them.

62
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:24:50pm

Republicans are going to keep killing people as long as they have power.

63
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:25:22pm

re: #55 Renaissance_Man

As numbers and bodies continue to climb in the US, I expect the nation to follow the lead of other similar dictatorships and failed states, such as Iran, Russia, and China, in simply lying about the numbers, while erasing records and discrediting any who say otherwise.

Lying about the numbers is going to be really difficult with our system. At the federal level the SSA would probably just have to stop publishing the Death Master File and I have no idea how they keep local officials from filing death certificates. People’s relatives are going to need those documents.

64
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:26:55pm

re: #63 goddamnedfrank

The people I’m worried about are the immigrants in DHS custody. Some number of them can actually just be disappeared.

65
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:27:11pm

re: #61 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

And that’s not going to work either. States are stepping up and producing/using them.

It’s working well enough that a lot of the initial deaths are probably never going to be properly classified and even now, the true extent of the outbreak is unknown because the criteria for testing remains stringent due to the limited availability of testing supplies.

66
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:29:00pm
67
BigPapa  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:29:44pm

As I suspected, the Joe Rogan post on my FB is stirring up some friends and there is a huge undercurrent of Bernie support driving it.

68
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:36:14pm

I’ll take “Shit that may not happen” for $2000, Alex.

69
Hecuba's daughter  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:37:22pm

re: #50 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

(Diamond Princess)

Good point. Their rate is now 1.54%. Most cases have resolved, but there remain 82 active cases of which 10 are serious/critical. So we will have to continue to wait on the final outcome.

70
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:38:47pm

re: #68 Eclectic Cyborg

[Embedded content]

I’ll take “Shit that may not happen” for $2000, Alex.

PM here has outright said that people should be prepared for restrictions be in place until 12/31, and maybe even tightened.

In other news, Public TV has done and interactive graphic on how social distancing works: svt.se

71
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:38:47pm

re: #65 Targetpractice

It’s working well enough that a lot of the initial deaths are probably never going to be properly classified and even now, the true extent of the outbreak is unknown because the criteria for testing remains stringent due to the limited availability of testing supplies.

Okay, we’re all doomed and nothing is going to help us. Enjoy your unmitigated despair.

72
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:38:48pm
73
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:39:04pm

lol

74
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:40:23pm

re: #73 Dread Pirate

[Embedded content]

lol

I looked at the comments…
*cringes*

75
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:41:29pm

re: #62 jaunte

[Embedded content]

Republicans are going to keep killing people as long as they have power.

And Georgia democrats will listen to the CDC and stay home, while republicans will party hearty and spread it to one another.

And I’m running out of fucks to give.

76
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:43:18pm

re: #71 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

Okay, we’re all doomed and nothing is going to help us. Enjoy your unmitigated despair.

It’s not a binary situation, one can believe that this admin is deliberately working to hold down numbers and having some measure of success with such while also believing that efforts by the states and local governments are preventing a total whitewash of the tally.

77
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:43:31pm

hi.

Nebraska seems to be doing well in its efforts to flatten the curve, thanks to Governor Ricketts taking action early in the crisis. We’ll have to see in a few weeks if the governor’s so-called targeted health measures are effective.

washingtonpost.com

Per the state “dashboard” 12PM CT update we have six deaths (+0 for two days), and no new cases for two days. There are 321 confirmed cases. Eleven cases border my county (six in Scott’s Bluff, five in Kimball).

nebraska.maps.arcgis.com

No one around here is clamouring to remove restrictions.

Panhandle Public Health District has completed its contact tracing in Kimball County and quarantined everyone with exposure there.

78
GlutenFreeJesus  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:44:04pm

re: #73 Dread Pirate

79
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:44:24pm

re: #69 Hecuba’s daughter

Good point. Their rate is now 1.54%. Most cases have resolved, but there remain 82 active cases of which 10 are serious/critical. So we will have to continue to wait on the final outcome.

Right. And I forgot to mention South Korea, which might represent what the statistics look like with comprehensive testing.

80
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:45:02pm
81
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:45:49pm

thread continues..

82
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:45:56pm

re: #80 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Not only do they complain, but they argue that they’ve “moral superiority” because they chose not to take part in a “rigged” system.

83
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:46:34pm

Just a reminder about what Trump’s stooge Surgeon General said in February…

84
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:46:47pm

moron

85
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:47:03pm

re: #68 Eclectic Cyborg

[Embedded content]

I’ll take “Shit that may not happen” for $2000, Alex.

Someone just asked Governor Newsom about that. He did not encourage people to think it would happen. (DT was also talking about doing it with audiences. Seriously.)

86
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:47:42pm

re: #81 Dread Pirate

[Embedded content]

thread continues..

The overarching theme is that Donny didn’t give a shit, and the people who did worried that taking action would imperil the one thing he had going for him, which was a “strong” economy that was supposedly on track to finally meet the goals set forth in his first year.

87
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:48:28pm

Best social distancing meme today:

88
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:49:47pm

re: #87 Teukka

As long as it works.

89
Renaissance_Man  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:51:17pm

re: #63 goddamnedfrank

Lying about the numbers is going to be really difficult with our system. At the federal level the SSA would probably just have to stop publishing the Death Master File and I have no idea how they keep local officials from filing death certificates. People’s relatives are going to need those documents.

Maybe. While records may continue to exist, I think too much of the public record is in the hands of the national news media. It takes one article, produced in a right wing incubator for that purpose, that says that, for example, 60% of the official death toll is actually falsely attributed and those people died of other causes. That article then explodes, virally and exponentially, if you will, by being copied across the entire far right mediasphere. The president starts saying it in his daily Nuremberg rallies. He says that any report of the actual death toll is fake news. The news media faithfully presents multiple talking heads that argue back and forth, and we see headlines like ‘Trump says death toll only 10,000, Deep State records claim otherwise’. Through repetition every day in the two hour hate he broadcasts, the idea becomes ingrained in the national consciousness. People start cropping up all over social media and being interviewed on cable news, saying ‘my grandfather supposedly died of coronavirus, but I never saw him, I think there are a lot of unanswered questions’. Fringe conspiracy theorists claim the deep state murdered those people, and Very Serious people on the news scoff at that while conceding that there are a lot of unanswered questions and we may never know what the true death toll is. Trump continues to insist that the fake news and deep state has made up tens of thousands of deaths to make him look bad. Millions of Americans agree, insisting that their relatives and friends died of something else.

China and Russia refuse to let anyone broadcast truthful information to keep that information under tight control. That’s one model of authoritarian information control. What we have seen in the American model is that you don’t have to clamp down on the truth, you just have to drown it out with lies, and have a big enough bullhorn. And, given repetition, people will willingly believe the lies and deny the truth.

90
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:51:33pm

re: #46 Hecuba’s daughter

Germany is now up to almost 1.5% mortality rate — and over 2/3 of their total cases are still active. I fear that my projected 1.5% mortality rate was way too optimistic. We are in the midst of a nightmare that will continue until there is a vaccine or a real cure. And the stay-at-home orders will have to strengthen to approach closer to the European model.

I think that is from people who were lingering finally passing. And they can report at least 26K cases already recovered.

Still, Germany currently has around 95K confirmed cases with 1300 fatalities. For a country of 83 million: Still less than New York State (113K cases and 3500 fatalities) - with only 20 million inhabitants.

Their health care system is still not overvburdened, a few clinics have reached capacity but there is room to take the overflow elsewhere.

91
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:52:00pm

re: #59 Targetpractice

They’ve found a simpler solution: Keep the supply of tests artificially low so that any deaths of those not tested can be written off as “unknown causes.”

Doctors and nurses aren’t going to stand for that.

92
Renaissance_Man  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:52:39pm

re: #73 Dread Pirate

[Embedded content]

lol

This tweet embodies exactly what I just said. This month, I expect this idea to become national policy.

93
Michele: Out of the closet, Into the fire  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:53:11pm

re: #39 retired cynic

DHS Decides Obama-era Immigration Rules Are Okay Now by JM Ashby, bobcesca.com

This may be too optimistic a take, but given the ongoing pandemic and the limited amount of time between now and the November election, it’s possible Trump’s mass deportation days are done. Not because he lost the desire to deport more people; because it’s just not practical to continue that politically-motivated side-campaign right now.

That and the farmers who rely on those workers to plant/cultivate/harvest their crops were raising the alarm about not having enough workers. Now lets see if this also carries over to these workers banding together and start demanding decent wages and benefits or they are going to find someone who will now that the threat of being deported has been (temporarily) lifted.

94
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:53:14pm

re: #91 sagehen

Doctors and nurses aren’t going to stand for that.

That’s hard to put faith in when hospital admins are clamping down on their employees talking to the press and threatening disciplinary action if caught doing so.

95
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:53:24pm

re: #55 Renaissance_Man

As numbers and bodies continue to climb in the US, I expect the nation to follow the lead of other similar dictatorships and failed states, such as Iran, Russia, and China, in simply lying about the numbers, while erasing records and discrediting any who say otherwise.

Donald Trump has already indicates that he has no problem with manipulating the statistics, remember “I like the numbers where they are, no point in doubling them for something that not our fault”?

96
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:54:04pm

re: #87 Teukka

I love this. Props to the folks who are willing to have fun.

97
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:54:31pm

re: #95 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

Donald Trump has already indicates that he has no problem with manipulating the statistics, remember “I like the numbers where they are, no point in doubling them for something that not our fault”?

It’s already being taken as a “fact” that “the experts” were predicting 2 million deaths so that 100K seems “good” by comparison.

98
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:54:44pm

re: #88 PhillyPretzel

As long as it works.

The meme is funny, but in fact anyone can do a baptism — no priest required.

99
makeitstop  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:54:51pm

re: #74 Teukka

I looked at the comments…
*cringes*

Man, his followers are some idiots.

100
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:55:34pm

re: #68 Eclectic Cyborg

[Embedded content]

I’ll take “Shit that may not happen” for $2000, Alex.

I suspect it’s cheaper to stay shut down than to run games with empty stadiums.

101
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:57:06pm

Important article on how the Administration bungled the pandemic response early.
washingtonpost.com

102
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:57:56pm

re: #100 Belafon

I suspect it’s cheaper to stay shut down than to run games with empty stadiums.

Depends on where we’re at with the quarantine, too. There’s a lot of logistics involved in running games, with a lot of people.

103
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:58:04pm

re: #100 Belafon

I suspect it’s cheaper to stay shut down than to run games with empty stadiums.

Even when things calm down, people are going to be staying away in large numbers from crowded sports or concert venues, cineplexes, amusement parks, cruises, airports and airliners.

There will be no “resetting” this economy and getting it back up to pre-corona levels any time soon, even if we remove restrictions.

104
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:58:13pm

According to
91-divoc.com
the only areas with a slower growth rate than Nebraska are Wyoming, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

I presume Wyoming because of its very low population spread out over a vast area, and the others because of the crushing of the travel industry.

105
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:58:54pm

re: #102 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

Depends on where we’re at with the quarantine, too. There’s a lot of logistics involved in running games, with a lot of people.

I just remember what the men’s rooms were like at Wrigley Field during the seventh-inning stretch…

106
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:58:57pm

re: #103 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

Even when this calm down, people are going to be staying away in large numbers from crowded sports or concert venues, amusement parks, cruises, airports and aircraft.

There will be no “resetting” this economy and getting it back up to pre-corona levels any time soon, even if we remove restrictions.

Not until there is a vaccine.

107
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 12:59:10pm

re: #89 Renaissance_Man

Meanwhile in China, residents of Hubei Province are looking around and counting the people collecting urns, among other things, and the news is spreading (as many as 40,000 may have died there).

Russia hasn’t really gotten started, unfortunately, but something similar may be expected.

108
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:00:19pm

re: #106 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Not until there is a vaccine.

A vaccine, a cure (or at least an effective treatment) and/or some sort of near-instant test.

109
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:02:01pm

re: #73 Dread Pirate

110
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:02:33pm

re: #107 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

Meanwhile in China, residents of Hubei Province are looking around and counting the people collecting urns, among other things, and the news is spreading (as many as 40,000 may have died there).

Russia hasn’t really gotten started, unfortunately, but something similar may be expected.

40,000? And they reacted swiftly and harshly once they reacted…

111
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:02:48pm

re: #107 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

Meanwhile in China, residents of Hubei Province are looking around and counting the people collecting urns, among other things, and the news is spreading (as many as 40,000 may have died there).

Russia hasn’t really gotten started, unfortunately, but something similar may be expected.

Right, but it’s important that these places do not have any real history of transparency or a free press. It’s going to be fuck-ton more difficult to suppress the true numbers here. The best they’ll probably be able to do is misclassify some number of COVID-19 deaths as “unidentified pneumonia.” Fortunately statistical regression analysis will burn right through that bullshit.

112
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:03:35pm

re: #97 Targetpractice

It’s already being taken as a “fact” that “the experts” were predicting 2 million deaths so that 100K seems “good” by comparison.

I’m not talking it as a fact. California’s governor isn’t taking it as a fact. The news outlets I read aren’t taking it as fact. The House isn’t taking it as a fact.

Twitter trends are in no way representative. Of anything except Twitter.

113
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:04:22pm

re: #109 Anymouse 🌹🏡

I have no idea how many people think the COVID-19 death figures are a fraud, but among my followers, about 85% do.

They could well be manipulated, but the question is, upward or downward?

114
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:05:24pm

re: #112 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

I’m not talking it as a fact. California’s governor isn’t taking it as a fact. The news outlets I read aren’t taking it as fact. The House isn’t taking it as a fact.

Twitter trends are in no way representative. Of anything except Twitter.

No one knows exactly how the WH came up with its 100k-240k range.

115
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:05:36pm

re: #106 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Not until there is a vaccine.

And/or a good serological test to tell us who’s immune. Or (worst case scenario) herd immunity.

116
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:06:33pm

Thread, eighteen tweets, in which Jim Wright (Stonekettle) smacks around a conservafool and argues why universal health care would be a good thing, especially in a pandemic.

117
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:07:23pm

re: #115 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

And/or a good serological test to tell us who’s immune. Or (worst case scenario) herd immunity.

The Karolinska Institute here in Sweden is weeks away from a serological test according to an interview with one of its researchers.

118
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:09:01pm

re: #117 Teukka

The Karolinska Institute here in Sweden is weeks away from a serological test according to an interview with one of its researchers.

From what I understand, Mayo Clinic here in Rochester, MN is looking to test something this week. Let me find the article.

119
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:09:14pm

re: #112 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

I’m not talking it as a fact. California’s governor isn’t taking it as a fact. The news outlets I read aren’t taking it as fact. The House isn’t taking it as a fact.

Twitter trends are in no way representative. Of anything except Twitter.

Did you know that the experts once predicted “global cooling,” only to flip their tunes to “global warming” when their predictions didn’t pan out?

Now before you say it, yeah, it’s total garbage that’s an absolute misrepresentation of the facts. But it’s been repeated enough times since the 70s by climate change deniers that a lot people believe it’s actually true.

Times like these, that evergreen quote springs up: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals and you know that.”

120
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:09:21pm

re: #117 Teukka

That sounds good.

121
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:09:37pm
122
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:09:40pm

re: #110 Teukka

40,000? And they reacted swiftly and harshly once they reacted…

That’s what I hear. And drat it, I’m seeing too much to bookmark it all, but it was a “reliable source” or I wouldn’t have posted that.

123
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:11:20pm

re: #111 goddamnedfrank

Right, but it’s important that these places do not have any real history of transparency or a free press. It’s going to be fuck-ton more difficult to suppress the true numbers here. The best they’ll probably be able to do is misclassify some number of COVID-19 deaths as “unidentified pneumonia.” Fortunately statistical regression analysis will burn right through that bullshit.

What I was trying to suggest is that they can’t keep the numbers secret even in China. No way it can be done here.

124
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:11:47pm

There are already serological tests out there. The problem is they aren’t widespread yet. That’s the part we need.

125
lizardofid  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:11:54pm

re: #100 Belafon

I suspect it’s cheaper to stay shut down than to run games with empty stadiums.

I see your point, but I would really need to know the particulars of the TV contracts.

126
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:12:28pm

re: #114 NO SMOCKING GUN!

No one knows exactly how the WH came up with its 100k-240k range.

“Pulled out of DT’s ass” is a hot contender.

127
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:15:11pm

re: #125 lizardofid

I see your point, but I would really need to know the particulars of the TV contracts.

Social Distancing NFL Rules: expand the field to 600 yards by 300 yards so everyone can maintain 6 feet distance, a “tackle” would involve using a lasso.

128
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:16:13pm

re: #127 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

Social Distancing NFL Rules: expand the field to 600 yards by 300 yards so everyone can maintain 6 feet distance, a “tackle” would involve using a lasso.

I mean, it would be better from the point of view of a concussion protocol…

129
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:16:33pm

re: #117 Teukka

The Karolinska Institute here in Sweden is weeks away from a serological test according to an interview with one of its researchers.

I hope so, but I’ve seen some gloomy reports also, because of other coronaviruses (causing minor or no illness) that make it very hard to avoid false positives.

Now I’m getting pessimistic. Time to boost the old blood pressure — good thing I live two buildings up from a pizza place!)

130
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:17:11pm

Talking Turd is Talking

131
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:18:14pm

Wow, there a lot of morans in Bill Mitchell’s latest lukewarm take.

They must be cooking the books! Someone has comorbidities and they list the death as Covid-19 on the death certificate!!!one!1uno!!wingnut£!!!

They don’t understand how anything works. I’m surprised they can use the Internet at all.

If you have terminal cancer or type 2 diabetes and you die in a shooting, the cause of death is “homicide.”

Why is this so hard for conservatives? I’ve seen that argument in a lot of places, not just Bill Mitchell’s Twitter feed.

132
Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:18:23pm

re: #128 klys (maker of Silmarils)

I mean, it would be better from the point of view of a concussion protocol…

yeah, but then more whiplash from getting jerked by the lasso…

133
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:18:53pm

re: #127 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

Social Distancing NFL Rules: expand the field to 600 yards by 300 yards so everyone can maintain 6 feet distance, a “tackle” would involve using a lasso.

That’s the Irish national sport, “Hurling”.
en.wikipedia.org

134
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:19:31pm

re: #132 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

yeah, but then more whiplash from getting jerked by the lasso…

You optimistically assume that any of the defensive players would be able to land it.

135
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:20:14pm

re: #130 Dave In Austin

Talking Turd is Talking

136
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:20:56pm

re: #119 Targetpractice

Did you know that the experts once predicted “global cooling,” only to flip their tunes to “global warming” when their predictions didn’t pan out?

Now before you say it, yeah, it’s total garbage that’s an absolute misrepresentation of the facts. But it’s been repeated enough times since the 70s by climate change deniers that a lot people believe it’s actually true.

Times like these, that evergreen quote springs up: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals and you know that.”

In the ’70s or ’80s, yes. From misunderstandings of some of their data. Corrected quickly.

The people whose interest it is to deny keep denying it, of course.

(I’m kinda wishing that the dumb, panicky animals on this site would go panic somewhere else. We really aren’t going to lose in the 2018 midterms, you know. I’m sure of it.)

Pizza calls!

137
peguyjaures  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:21:41pm

re: #122 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

That’s what I hear. And drat it, I’m seeing too much to bookmark it all, but it was a “reliable source” or I wouldn’t have posted that.

Well, on the other hand, when you apply the average Chinese death rate (713 per 100,000 inhabitants) to the population of Hubei (69 millions), you get an expected 81,000 “normal” deaths during the quarantine period. As I think no funerals where allowed during the quarantine, that makes about 81,000 urns for families to collect at the end of the period (to be fair, one should probably deduce the average number of traffic accidents, since the roads were empty). So the mere fact that a lot of urns are being collected now is not necessarily a useful indication per se.

138
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:21:42pm

Article explaining why covid-19 case counts are meaningless. fivethirtyeight.com

139
lizardofid  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:23:23pm

re: #127 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

Social Distancing NFL Rules: expand the field to 600 yards by 300 yards so everyone can maintain 6 feet distance, a “tackle” would involve using a lasso.

They could always go to six man! I’m a fan of the Balmorhea Bears myself!

Link

140
A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:23:31pm

re: #137 peguyjaures

Well, on the other hand, when you apply the average Chinese death rate (713 per 100,000 inhabitants) to the population of Hubei (69 millions), you get an expected 81,000 “normal” deaths during the quarantine period. As I think no funerals where allowed during the quarantine, that makes about 81,000 urns for families to collect at the end of the period (to be fair, one should probably deduce the average number of traffic accidents, since the roads were empty). So the mere fact that a lot of urns are being collected now is not necessarily a useful indication per se.

Seems it is to the residents of Hubei, who know what normal looks like.

141
lawhawk  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:25:14pm

re: #13 Charles Johnson

Shaun F’King. Talcum X.

Yeah, the fucker blocked me when I contested and pointed out his lies and scams dating back to Ferguson. He never got any better than that. He’s a grifter.

142
lizardofid  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:25:24pm

re: #124 klys (maker of Silmarils)

There are already serological tests out there. The problem is they aren’t widespread yet. That’s the part we need.

Best of all would be a dried blood test that could be self collected and mailed in.

(just dreaming)

143
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:26:05pm

re: #136 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

In the ’70s or ’80s, yes. From misunderstandings of some of their data. Corrected quickly.

The people whose interest it is to deny keep denying it, of course.

(I’m kinda wishing that the dumb, panicky animals on this site would go panic somewhere else. We really aren’t going to lose in the 2018 midterms, you know. I’m sure of it.)

Pizza calls!

I’m gonna ask out of genuine curiosity: Is it the fact that this is a textual medium that’s making it impossible for you to distinguish “panic” from arguing for argument’s sake? Because if so, I’ll spell it out for you: I am NOT panicked, I am engaged in a “Devil’s Advocate” argument, something I have a long habit of doing on this site.

144
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:26:21pm

re: #142 lizardofid

Best of all would be a dried blood test that could be self collected and mailed in.

(just dreaming)

That’s the home test I would be most excited about, not gonna lie.

145
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:26:31pm

re: #138 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Article explaining why covid-19 case counts are meaningless. fivethirtyeight.com

Death counts aren’t meaningless though. You can point at a person and say “he’s dead” and compare that to an area’s population.

146
bratwurst  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:27:26pm
147
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:28:27pm
148
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:28:27pm

re: #142 lizardofid

Best of all would be a dried blood test that could be self collected and mailed in.

(just dreaming)

There’s a company working on something like that right now, but it’s designed to measure coronavirus antibodies and not to directly test for the virus itself.

149
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:28:55pm

re: #147 Charles Johnson

*You’re.

150
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:28:58pm

re: #142 lizardofid

Best of all would be a dried blood test that could be self collected and mailed in.

(just dreaming)

Hey, I just did one of those except not blood, and not to detect viruses (and ugh, you play in poo).

I got my results back from the VA in the mail yesterday. They determined a) it’s in fact poo, and b) there was no blood in it.

That would be good for this virus (if you can keep it from infecting postal workers), but I’m no test developer so I don’t see how to do it.

151
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:29:31pm

re: #147 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Wha? Just…HUH!?

152
lawhawk  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:29:46pm

re: #109 Anymouse 🌹🏡

I went with the dumber than a bag of hammers.. but yeah, they’re spewing conspiracies about death toll from covid19 being cooked up.

The deaths from covid19 are in addition to all the other kinds of death we normally see. Auto accidents are down because people aren’t driving or walking and getting hit by cars, but other types remain consistent. We know what seasonal flu looks like. We know cancers and heart attacks and other causes of death.

And all of that means you can determine excess morbidity - what covid19 has done to the death rate and overall death toll (per capita and total). 8000 doesn’t sound like a lot, but in NYC it’s pushed the per capita death rate in NYC up measurably. It continues to rise.

153
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:30:15pm
154
steve_davis  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:30:52pm

re: #11 Charles Johnson

Apparently the new dirtbag left talking point on Biden is that he’s a rapist. I looked into the evidence this morning, and it’s REALLY thin. And it was first promoted by The Intercept, which is a big red flag for me.

You mean, you didn’t find it compelling that he supposedly said, “Come on, man! I was told you wanted it” while finger diddling the lady?

155
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:30:53pm

Timecube was aspirational for some.

156
peguyjaures  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:31:14pm

re: #140 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

re: #140 A hollow Gandalfian voice says, VOTE, you fools!

Seems it is to the residents of Hubei, who know what normal looks like.

Well, not necessarily, the death rate and overmortality are not intuitive, and having two months worth of funeral urns collected over the course of a few days will never look “normal” to anyone. I’m not saying I trust the official numbers, by the way - I don’t. But anything is a wild guess at this stage. Finding out the actual overmortality for the city and province would require some serious number-crunching - statisticians may come round to it a later stage.

157
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:32:01pm

re: #153 Charles Johnson

I wonder what Harry Turtledove about this “person.”

158
steve_davis  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:33:57pm

re: #23 Wendell Zurkowitz ((slave to the waffle light))

cheers, I finally opened one of the bottles of white wine sitting in my cupboard to go along with my salmon, and am on my way to finishing it, which I almost never do (most of them get used up as cooking wine after they have gone off after sitting unfinished for a week)

I’m a bit nervous about this. I find myself having a beer with lunch and then twoish glasses of wine with dinner. I’m not worried about blowing through my liver, but I really prefer to have something to go to that keeps me from drinking in the afternoon.

159
lizardofid  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:34:23pm

re: #148 Eclectic Cyborg

There’s a company working on something like that right now, but it’s designed to measure coronavirus antibodies and not test directly for the virus itself.

Thanks, that’s actually what I’m more interested in, with an idea of locating a pool of donors for potential convalescent plasma therapies. Also, to establish a baseline for decisions on social distancing rules and such.

160
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:34:37pm

re: #152 lawhawk

Part of that may come from health departments’ reports on people who die from Covid-19.

It’s important to know there are certain risk factors which could increase your chances of contracting the disease and dying from it. That said, when you keep getting reports which say something like

The latest reported death was in [county], a woman in her eighties who had comorbidities

with each health department noting “comorbidities” over and over again in reports, folks want to latch onto those rather than the actual cause of death (the disease).

161
lawhawk  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:35:45pm

Trumpists think that covid19 displaces and substitutes for other kinds of death (cancers, heart attacks, etc.)

Covid19 is in addition to all those other kinds of death. Hospitals and logistics around health care are designed to handle normal expected death rates and care. Once it spikes above that level, the hospitals can’t deal with the patient load and you see excess deaths due to diminished care.

Covid19 is dangerous because so many can be asymptomatic spreaders without getting seriously ill. But a significant percentage get seriously ill requiring hospitalization. Of those, a significant percentage require ICU ventilators and extreme measures. Even still, they die at a high rate, especially as compared to the seasonal flu.

Trumpists don’t care about any of that - and the dead are piling up like cordwood.

162
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:38:01pm

re: #138 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Nate’s not an epidemiologist, so I still expect the IHME people are doing a better job than Nate.

Also, Silver writes:

In fact, in some cases, places with lower nominal case counts may actually be worse off. In general, a high number of tests is associated with a more robust medical infrastructure and a more adept government response to the coronavirus. The countries that are doing a lot of testing also tend to have low fatality rates — not just low case fatality rates (how many people die as a fraction of known cases) but also lower rates of death as a share of the overall population. Germany, for example, which is conducting about 50,000 tests per day — seven times more than the U.K. — has more than twice as many reported cases as the U.K., but they’ve also had only about one-third as many deaths.

It’s true that Germany has a third the number of deaths than the UK, but many more tested positive cases.

However, the word Nate leaves off is “yet”. Germany’s testing capability helps them identify cases early in their infection. But as I have emphasized for several days now, Germany’s CFR has been climbing.

If you look at the number of “critical” cases in Germany, that number was originally very low, but has been climbing. It has already been established that the longer the patient is on a ventilator the more likely they are to die.

Nate is not properly accounting for the progression of the disease in a person over a few weeks.

Germany’s death count will increase substantially, like every other nation. Because they started off with a larger testing capability, and a larger latent ICU capability, they have gotten people top quality health care shortly after people become infected.

This is why I keep harping on the rising CFR, globally and locally. Of course there are many infections which are never diagnosed. But the data we do have indicates that if you develop symptoms enough to seek medical intervention, there is then a probability of dying that is uncomfortably large.

And this is why nations are going through the panic and traumatic shutdowns: because of the number of deaths.

Back when polio was a thing, people could get infected but have no serious damage. The world was not scared of polio because of those people, but because of the people for whom polio was crippling or fatal.

163
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:38:42pm

re: #160 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Part of that may come from health departments’ reports on people who die from Covid-19.

It’s important to know there are certain risk factors which could increase your chances of contracting the disease and dying from it. That said, when you keep getting reports which say something like

with each health department noting “comorbidities” over and over again in reports, folks want to latch onto those rather than the actual cause of death (the disease).

They’re working hard as fuck to portray the “real” death toll as being far lower than the “official” one, with the goal of convincing people that the media bashing him with the latter are ignoring how his “great leadership” kept the “real” number so low. It’s why I keep saying that the “real” death toll will be a subject of debate for years to come, because everybody will insist that their criteria leads to “real” number and that others are over/under-inflated.

164
BlueSpotinAL  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:40:29pm

re: #124 klys (maker of Silmarils)

There are already serological tests out there. The problem is they aren’t widespread yet. That’s the part we need.

Important read about antibody testing, for the analytical chemistry oriented folks.

economist.com

165
retired cynic  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:40:50pm

re: #77 Anymouse 🌹🏡

IL c19 stats:
Saturday 4/4 53,581 tested (5533 new), 10,357 positive (1453 new), 243 deaths (33 new)

166
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:41:57pm

re: #145 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Death counts aren’t meaningless though. You can point at a person and say “he’s dead” and compare that to an area’s population.

I have noticed that Kentucky has nearly as many deaths as Tennessee despite a much lower case count. Is it because Kentucky is testing less, or because of our high levels of smoking, diabetes and black lung?

167
lawhawk  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:42:13pm

re: #162 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

The summers where the pools and watering holes were shut down to try and stop the spread of polio. That was until they created the vaccines and started widespread vaccinations.

(side note: when I see CFR, I think of code of federal regulations, not case fatality ratio).

168
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:43:03pm

It would appear Juanita Jean’s found yet another allegedly-corrupt Republican candidate (this one running against Sheila Lee Jackson).

His FEC filings are interesting to say the least. Plus, the guy put his bank account number in the filings, which would make anonymous donations simple if you read the FEC report.

On the other hand, it would make draining his bank account by a criminal easy as well.

Directions Attached

169
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:44:34pm
170
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:44:50pm
171
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:45:41pm

Geez. AFSCME Head (HQ I am assuming) just called me and put me into a conference call. I disconnected the call. If they sent a warning via e-mail or even a warning phone call. No. You are automatically in the conference call.

After looking up the number on Find Who Calls You I found out that this is a number that has only had 2 look-ups and no comments.

172
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:49:22pm

re: #167 lawhawk

The summers where the pools and watering holes were shut down to try and stop the spread of polio. That was until they created the vaccines and started widespread vaccinations.

(side note: when I see CFR, I think of code of federal regulations, not case fatality ratio).

A couple days ago I posted a link to a long article in the Sidney, Nebr. Sun-Telegraph where they talked about polio hitting the area, including an interview with a woman who survived it.

The point of the article was to note the very severe measures people took here then for social distancing and the fact epidemics don’t just stay in large cities.

173
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:55:19pm
174
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:56:56pm

re: #172 Anymouse 🌹🏡

I stand corrected. The paper is the Western Nebraska Observer (Kimball), citing old articles from the Sidney paper about the polio outbreak.

The article came out as the first Covid-19 cases were diagnosed in Kimball.

They noted the positive effects of measures taken then, but also the negative social effects (such as stigma against polio survivors).

Another Time, Another Virus

175
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:57:52pm

Odd thing though I disconnected the call by taking the phone off-line and they have not called back. I just did a google search and Ocsea Headquarters came up. This is odd and I think I am going to block this number.

176
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 1:58:28pm

Enjoyed a pleasant spring afternoon on the deck, and now it’s time for Andy Beshear.

177
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:00:14pm

re: #173 Charles Johnson

He’s desperate to get people back in his hotels, and have an upward trend in stocks.
He’ll kill for it.

178
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:00:57pm

re: #173 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

This is his “very fine people” moment again, that total reversal after a “presidential” moment that always comes because the latter was forced upon him and his ego demands he have the last word.

179
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:00:59pm

re: #173 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

He only cares about getting reelected and so will take reckless chances gambling our lives.

180
BeachDem  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:01:02pm

Of fucking course he doesn’t want to talk about “that.”

Several cities are already reporting jumps in domestic violence cases or calls to local hotlines. Some shelters around the country say they’re full — some after reducing their capacity to maintain social distancing — and struggling to help survivors. And with gun sales setting records, advocates worry that the next few weeks could be especially dangerous…

Of the 20 large metropolitan police departments that provided data to CNN, nine saw double-digit percentage jumps in domestic violence cases or 911 calls in March, either compared to the previous year or to earlier months in 2020.

cnn.com

That’s why my second donation, after the food bank, was to the women’s shelter.

181
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:03:37pm

re: #180 BeachDem

[Embedded content]

Of fucking course he doesn’t want to talk about “that.”

Several cities are already reporting jumps in domestic violence cases or calls to local hotlines. Some shelters around the country say they’re full — some after reducing their capacity to maintain social distancing — and struggling to help survivors. And with gun sales setting records, advocates worry that the next few weeks could be especially dangerous…

Of the 20 large metropolitan police departments that provided data to CNN, nine saw double-digit percentage jumps in domestic violence cases or 911 calls in March, either compared to the previous year or to earlier months in 2020.

cnn.com

That’s why my second donation, after the food bank, was to the women’s shelter.

If Trump were in a double-wide 24/7 with a spouse I have little doubt that he’s be abusing her within the first day.

182
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:03:41pm

Goshen County, Wyoming has announced its second case of Covid-19, a man in his twenties.

Additionally, they have suspended passport services for the duration of the outbreak.

183
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:04:08pm

re: #176 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Enjoyed a pleasant spring afternoon on the deck, and now it’s time for Andy Beshear.

Say it with me: we will get through this, and we will get through this together.

184
Mattand  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:05:44pm

Just saw Joe Rogan’s endorsement of Trump over Biden.

Joe may be a bigger fan of dictatorship than he’s letting on. Implying that Biden would be a bad president and that he would rely on a cabinet to help make decisions is a huge fucking tell. Trump’s cabinet for the most part has been filled with hacks and unqualified morons and Trump is clearly unfit for the job.

Yet Rogan is fine with four more years of this kind of chaos.

Rogan is supposed to be one of the leading geniuses of the Intellectual Dark Web. But somehow Sanders and Trump, as ideologically and qualification-wise opposites as you can get, are his only two choices.

It’s fucking insane. Maybe not the best analogy, but I’m seeing it as “Well, since Captain America isn’t going to be running for President, I have no choice but to support the Red Skull.”

What really scares me to death right now is how downright destructive and dangerous Trump is behaving, and people out there are in full-on cartoon dog in a house fire “This is fine”.

185
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:06:30pm

The other reason Trump is back on his “we need to reopen” kick is obvious: Faux is pushing it again and repeating the BS “cure worse than the disease” line that is meant to appeal to their brain-dead viewers.

186
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:06:44pm

re: #184 Mattand

Just saw Joe Rogan’s endorsement of Trump over Biden.

Joe may be a bigger fan of dictatorship than he’s letting on. Implying that Biden would be a bad president and that he would rely on a cabinet to help make decisions is a huge fucking tell. Trump’s cabinet for the most part has been filled with hacks and unqualified morons and Trump is clearly unfit for the job.

Yet Rogan is fine with four more years of this kind of chaos.

Rogan is supposed to be one of the leading geniuses of the Intellectual Dark Web. But somehow Sanders and Trump, as ideologically and qualification-wise opposites you can get, are his only two choices.

It’s fucking insane. Maybe not the best analogy, but I’m seeing it as “Well, since Captain America isn’t going to be running for President, I have no choice but to support the Red Skull.”

What really scares me to death right now is how downright destructive and dangerous Trump is behaving, and people out there are in full-on cartoon dog in a house fire “This is fine”.

Scratch a “libertarian” reveal an autocracy aspirant.

187
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:08:39pm

re: #183 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Say it with me: we will get through this, and we will get through this together.

Not connected to this post, but in your musings about Kentucky health I remember one Saturday volunteering through our local coop in Lexington for roadside cleanup. Thousands of cigarette butts, but the funny thing is that two different drivers took the trouble to flick butts AT ME while I was cleaning. Also, I rode my bike or walked past UK hospital most days going to work and was always struck by how many people (patients and nurses alike) where out front smoking at any given time—many of the patients on oxygen!

188
Mattand  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:09:49pm

re: #186 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)

Scratch a “libertarian” reveal an autocracy aspirant.

God, that is the fucking truth.

One thing I’ve noticed more about libertarians is straight-up lack of empathy, particularly when they’re not being affected by a crisis.

I’ve cracked this joke before, but if you’ve ever played the game Bioshock, think of it less as a first person shooter, and more of a documentary of what life would be like in a libertarian society.

189
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:10:32pm

re: #184 Mattand

Rogan’s association with Dana White back in the day is damning enough, but Rogan has so many things in his closet that I’m pretty sure anyone with an inkling of self-respect would ignore Rogan’s endorsement.

Rogan is a great illustration of how backwards so many Americans remain, because they are afraid to change. Rogan may hawk fewer conspiracies than Alex Jones, but they are cut from the same cloth. It’s part of a heritage in this country, of the he-man rugged individual who doesn’t anyone to tell them what to do.

Because talkers like Rogan can, well, talk - that is, form sentences they string together in some fashion, which is a challenge on the air - then they gather crowds of people who fall for oration (sound familiar?)

190
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:12:13pm

re: #188 Mattand

God, that is the fucking truth.

One thing I’ve noticed more about libertarians is straight-up lack of empathy, particularly when they’re not being affected by a crisis.

I’ve cracked this joke before, but if you’ve ever played the game Bioshock, think of it less as a first person shooter, and more of a documentary of what life would be like in a libertarian society.

Maybe that’s why my wife gave up being a member of the Libertarian Party and switched to the Democratic Party after she married me. She didn’t have it in her to be a soulless (well, atheist, but still) ghoul.

191
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:12:18pm

re: #170 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Idiot thinks he’s Speedy Alka-Seltzer!

Speedy Alka Seltzer - Old Vintage Commercial

192
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:13:23pm

Tonight’s dinner, a fusion of flavors and cultures: Masala basmati rice on the stove, teriyaki chicken and carrots in the crock pot. Sooooo good.

193
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:15:03pm
194
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:16:16pm

re: #188 Mattand

God, that is the fucking truth.

One thing I’ve noticed more about libertarians is straight-up lack of empathy, particularly when they’re not being affected by a crisis.

I’ve cracked this joke before, but if you’ve ever played the game Bioshock, think of it less as a first person shooter, and more of a documentary of what life would be like in a libertarian society.

Yeah that’s exactly it. No empathy at all. But yeah if you look at Ron and Rand Paul, they were the favorites of David Duke and like minded individuals before Trump.

195
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:16:34pm

re: #193 Anymouse 🌹🏡

[Embedded content]

God bless Daniel Dale, watching Trump so we don’t have to, and fact checking him in real time.

196
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:17:14pm

re: #193 Anymouse 🌹🏡

“… he says some states have “big land, few people, and they’re in very good shape.”

Ahem, Alabama. That”s just babbling nonsense.

197
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:17:47pm

re: #189 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

Rogan’s association with Dana White back in the day is damning enough, but Rogan has so many things in his closet that I’m pretty sure anyone with an inkling of self-respect would ignore Rogan’s endorsement.

Rogan is a great illustration of how backwards so many Americans remain, because they are afraid to change. Rogan may hawk fewer conspiracies than Alex Jones, but they are cut from the same cloth. It’s part of a heritage in this country, of the he-man rugged individual who doesn’t anyone to tell them what to do.

Because talkers like Rogan can, well, talk - that is, form sentences they string together in some fashion, which is a challenge on the air - then they gather crowds of people who fall for oration (sound familiar?)

I remember Fear Factor. It’s honestly depressing how many people think Rogan has these political insights. So many people like him without a political education trying to act like they know shit.

198
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:19:14pm

Jim Bakker is Mad He Can’t Sell Silver Solution Anymore (Utah Outcasts making fun of him, caution for coarse language, 21:28)

Jim Bakker is Mad He Can’t Sell Silver Solution Anymore

199
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:19:55pm

Beshear showing how social distancing is reducing flu cases, which shows it works.

200
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:20:30pm

re: #196 Decatur Deb

Ahem, Alabama. That”s just babbling nonsense.

Well, if you kill everyone in California, New York, and Florida, those will be states with “big land, few people.”

201
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:21:58pm

re: #193 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Big land, few people, but mainly we’re all used to staying indoors because when the temperature doesn’t crack above 0 for two weeks of the year, nobody wants to go out. Even the extroverts.

202
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:22:45pm

re: #200 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Well, if you kill everyone in California, New York, and Florida, those will be states with “big land, few people.”

We ran the U Wash projection for Alabama against Colorado. We’re really glad Dau2 and the kid moved to Denver from Birmingham.

203
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:24:17pm
204
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:24:25pm
205
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:24:37pm

re: #202 Decatur Deb

We ran the U Wash projection for Alabama against Colorado. We’re really glad Dau2 and the kid moved to Denver from Birmingham.

Sweet Former Home Alabama….

206
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:24:39pm

Beshear asking for donations of ppe, and for any manufacturers who could make some to call.

207
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:26:34pm

re: #205 Barefoot Grin

Sweet Former Home Alabama….

Gonna be a bunch of angels from Montgomery.

208
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:26:44pm

re: #203 goddamnedfrank

[Embedded content]

As well as making it clear that the Navy (read: Modly) broke land speed records to remove Crozier from command before Trump’s anger turned towards them.

209
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:27:50pm

Damn

210
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:28:47pm

re: #203 goddamnedfrank

[Embedded content]

Maybe if Captain Crozier tortured people, Trump would give him a medal.

211
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:29:36pm

re: #202 Decatur Deb

We ran the U Wash projection for Alabama against Colorado. We’re really glad Dau2 and the kid moved to Denver from Birmingham.

covid19.healthdata.org

They have our state reaching less than half of our capacity at peak on April 19. The high-end projection is still well-below capacity here.

212
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:31:40pm
213
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:33:16pm

re: #211 Anymouse 🌹🏡

covid19.healthdata.org

They have our state reaching less than half of our capacity at peak on April 19. The high-end projection is still well-below capacity here.

The 2017 flu put our two hospitals far above max capacity for weeks. Gonna get through this on Tullamore Dew and 30yr-old grappa.

214
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:33:29pm

re: #212 Charles Johnson

I guarantee you a lot of them will have services tomorrow regardless.

215
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:33:49pm

re: #214 Eclectic Cyborg

I guarantee you a lot of them will have services tomorrow regardless.

And tomorrow’s not even Easter.

216
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:34:17pm

My mayor is unhappy with trump.

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

217
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:34:25pm

re: #214 Eclectic Cyborg

I guarantee you a lot of them will have services tomorrow regardless.

Sweet chariot gonna carry them home.

218
dell*nix  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:34:42pm

OT:If the virus starts hitting relatives of the USSS how soon before Trump runs out of SS agents protecting him.

219
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:35:18pm

re: #212 Charles Johnson

His fake piety is actually dangerous.

220
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:35:57pm

re: #212 Charles Johnson

[Embedded content]

Perhaps he can demonstrate not only his leadership, but also his conviction by showing up to one of these packed churches to attend Easter services? And really show he feels it’s safe by doing so without a mask.

221
bratwurst  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:36:02pm
222
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:36:22pm

Meanwhile the Megachurch 3 blocks away is going to continue with 7 services tomorrow.

223
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:38:39pm

re: #221 bratwurst

He just knows what the zealots who have his ear tell him.

224
BigPapa  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:39:08pm

re: #222 Joe Bacon 🌹

Meanwhile the Megachurch 3 blocks away is going to continue with 7 services tomorrow.

Unreal. The people who flout these safety measures should quarantine from the rest of us, and it should be their personal responsibility. I know, LOL.

225
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:39:50pm

Taking a brave and godly stand against the experts.

226
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:40:10pm

re: #222 Joe Bacon 🌹

Meanwhile the Megachurch 3 blocks away is going to continue with 7 services tomorrow.

Get out there and sell them consecrated silver solution.

227
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:41:53pm

Beshear says KY has 92 new confirmed cases and 3 deaths. Rather than bragging like Trump, Beshear says these deaths just as hard to report as other days. Two of them in their fifties. Reports on a 49 y. o., who died out of state to protect his family.

228
makeitstop  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:42:42pm

re: #204 Belafon

[Embedded content]

Biden should enlist her help.

229
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:43:02pm

re: #227 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Beshear says KY has 92 new confirmed cases and 3 deaths. Rather than bragging like Trump, Beshear says these deaths just as hard to report as other days. Two of them in their fifties. Reports on a 49 y. o., who died out of state to protect his family.

There isn’t anything to brag about right now. That Trump has been using this tragedy to brag shows what a fucked up piece of shit he is.

230
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:43:23pm

re: #221 bratwurst

[Embedded content]

The general who orders his men to charge the guns, while he watches from atop a hill miles away. It’ll be a magnificent charge, a huge charge, a charge nobody could have anticipated!

231
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:43:38pm

re: #228 makeitstop

That is a great idea. Biden might actually go for it.

232
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:44:22pm

re: #228 makeitstop

Biden should enlist her help.

I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s talking to her. The thing I really like about Biden is he seems very open minded. In that profile on Clyburn, Clyburn said he gave Joe some tips and Biden took the advice eagerly. Biden knows that it’s gonna be a group effort to first defeat Trump and then recover from this.

233
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:46:34pm

LOLWUT?

234
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:47:31pm

He’s getting a ton of people killed.

235
Teukka  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:47:35pm

re: #233 goddamnedfrank

LOLWUT?

[Embedded content]

JFC…

236
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:47:35pm

re: #233 goddamnedfrank

LOLWUT?

[Embedded content]

“What do you have to lose?” How’s about one’s life when their heart suddenly stops?

237
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:48:57pm

BTW, you gotta love how he’s suddenly going after 3M after not only refusing for weeks to invoke the DPA, but his own admin knew that 3M and other companies were selling to the highest bidding countries and did nothing to put the kibosh on such.

238
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:49:16pm
239
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:50:06pm

Need to decompress with more Kukla, Fran & Ollie!

Kukla, Fran and Ollie - First Sealtest Show - September 27, 1949

240
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:50:10pm

re: #233 goddamnedfrank

LOLWUT?

[Embedded content]

The phrase he used to try to get votes from the African-American community: “what do you have to lose.” And of course, with infection rates disproportionately hitting minorities in urban areas because of Trump, the answer is “life itself.”

241
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:50:28pm

re: #237 Targetpractice

BTW, you gotta love how he’s suddenly going after 3M after not only refusing for weeks to invoke the DPA, but his own admin knew that 3M and other companies were selling to the highest bidding countries and did nothing to put the kibosh on such.

And the thing is, 3M’s stance is that they are ramping up capacity so they can meet domestic demand AND still sell overseas. They’re trying to save the damn WORLD (and, yes, make a tidy profit from it, let’s be fair), and Trump is saying, “No, fuck the world, this is about ME.”

242
bratwurst  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:51:11pm
243
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:51:25pm

Beshear calling out Maryville Baptist Church for planning to have services Sunday.

244
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:52:29pm

re: #192 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

Tonight’s dinner, a fusion of flavors and cultures: Masala basmati rice on the stove, teriyaki chicken and carrots in the crock pot. Sooooo good.

Here, baked porkchops dredged in seasoned flour and parmesan/romano cheese, with southern style green beans, diced red taters and slivered almonds.

245
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:52:33pm

re: #242 bratwurst

rofl. The only thing that DT is an expert in is getting money from his marks.

246
William Lewis  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:54:48pm

For those who think folded welding patterns in steel are pretty…

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

247
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:55:14pm

People are going too far with their surplus toilet paper…

248
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:55:28pm

re: #230 Targetpractice

The general who orders his men to charge the guns, while he watches from atop a hill miles away. It’ll be a magnificent charge, a huge charge, a charge nobody could have anticipated!

“The Charge of the Light Brigade” Alfred, Lord Tennyson (read by Tom O’Bedlam)

249
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:55:56pm

re: #248 sagehen

[Embedded content]

Video

Yup, there it is.

250
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:56:04pm

re: #244 Backwoods_Sleuth

Here, baked porkchops dredged in seasoned flour and parmesan/romano cheese, with southern style green beans, diced red taters and slivered almonds.

It’s CHEAT DAY here at casa klys so we have started by splitting a feta veggie quesadilla and getting swirl margaritas from our favorite Cali-Mex place that is doing their best to treat their employees right through all of this.*

There’s some possibility that we might go in to get takeout from the local steakhouse too. This might be influenced by the 6 serving cocktails-in-a-wine-bottle they’re offering.

* Markings on the floor for customers to stand on while they wait to pick up their orders, masks and gloves for all the employees working, sanitized versus used pens, etc. Plus they’re managing to stay open and do a pretty brisk business and that gives the employees they are able to bring in a job. I tipped super well.

251
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:56:57pm

re: #214 Eclectic Cyborg

I guarantee you a lot of them will have services tomorrow regardless.

Our church is closed.

I spoke with the minister here about the suggestion someone gave to me about having radio services (since Internet is a problem around here).

She told me that several ministers and priests in the area have already gotten together and made arrangements with a local country radio station in Scottsbluff to broadcast church services a few times a day.

252
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:58:21pm

re: #250 klys (maker of Silmarils)

Yesterday was “drive-thru date night” for myself and Mrs. Fish, a tradition I started two weeks ago where we go get food somewhere, park somewhere nearby, and get to eat and talk with no kids (they’re old enough to stay home for a couple of hours unsupervised). Tomorrow is my son’s birthday, which undoubtedly means McDonald’s.

253
Targetpractice  Apr 4, 2020 • 2:59:12pm

Of course, the reality is that Trump can’t do a damned thing to get people back in the churchs if the state and local governments don’t cooperate. But that’s part of the point of such a declaration, making himself look “benevolent” because he’s “easing” the restrictions versus blue state governments who are threatening to arrest church officials who hold services in defiance of state/local ordinances.

254
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:00:05pm

re: #222 Joe Bacon 🌹

Meanwhile the Megachurch 3 blocks away is going to continue with 7 services tomorrow.

Maybe Governor Newsom should send in the National Guard to enforce his orders.

255
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:00:16pm

re: #251 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Our church is closed.

I spoke with the minister here about the suggestion someone gave to me about having radio services (since Internet is a problem around here).

She told me that several ministers and priests in the area have already gotten together and made arrangements with a local country radio station in Scottsbluff to broadcast church services a few times a day.

Very responsible. How many reckless churches will be open this Sunday and next?

256
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:00:42pm

re: #252 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

Yesterday was “drive-thru date night” for myself and Mrs. Fish, a tradition I started two weeks ago where we go get food somewhere, park somewhere nearby, and get to eat and talk with no kids (they’re old enough to stay home for a couple of hours unsupervised). Tomorrow is my son’s birthday, which undoubtedly means McDonald’s.

…fuck, I feel old now. WHEN DID THAT HAPPEN.

257
EPR-radar  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:01:20pm

re: #243 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Beshear calling out Maryville Baptist Church for planning to have services Sunday.

That pastor should be arrested.

258
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:01:24pm

re: #255 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Very responsible. How many reckless churches will be open this Sunday and next?

Not ours. We’ve advertised online services, and a “drive-through Easter experience” that I’m a bit worried about, but I’ll hopefully find out more soon. I’m helping broadcast tomorrow.

259
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:02:46pm

re: #256 klys (maker of Silmarils)

…fuck, I feel old now. WHEN DID THAT HAPPEN.

Last year. My oldest turns 9 tomorrow and knows how to cook some basics and get ahold of us in an emergency.

260
stpaulbear  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:03:34pm

re: #243 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Beshear calling out Maryville Baptist Church for planning to have services Sunday.

They should be allowed to enter their church, but they shouldn’t be allowed to leave for two weeks.

261
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:03:49pm

re: #259 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

No no no no no, he started kindergarten like yesterday. I swear.

262
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:04:31pm

re: #261 klys (maker of Silmarils)

No no no no no, he started kindergarten like yesterday. I swear.

I agree with you, but apparently this is my life now.

263
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:07:01pm

re: #262 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

My baby just turned 26 about 10 days ago. It goes entirely too damned fast and you can’t do damned thing about it. Sigh….

264
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:08:46pm

re: #263 A Mom Anon

My baby just turned 26 about 10 days ago. It goes entirely too damned fast and you can’t do damned thing about it. Sigh….

My mother reliably informs me, though, that the urge to strangle them does not in fact diminish with time.

265
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:10:04pm

Someone mentioned surplus toilet paper. If the Great TP Blockage has actually been cleared, we could research how excess could be turned into a short-term mask. Several plies and some masking tape should yield something as good as bed sheet cotton.

“Hello, NIOSH? I need a quick certification number.”

266
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:10:31pm

Last night was my wife’s work-late days with an elderly client, so I gathered from the cupboard and fridge what I could and made a lentil-mixed meat soup. It was pretty good last night. But, my god, it was so much better for lunch today. I took an internet recipe and just substituted what I had that was close (for example, ground pork and a little bit of kielbasa and andouille that we used for other recipes a few weeks ago instead of italian sausage; red pepper instead of green, brown lentils instead of green, etc.).

267
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:11:27pm

re: #266 Barefoot Grin

Last night was my wife’s work-late days with an elderly client, so I gathered from the cupboard and fridge what I could and made a lentil-mixed meat soup. It was pretty good last night. But, my god, it was so much better for lunch today. I took an internet recipe and just substituted what I had that was close (for example, ground pork and a little bit of kielbasa and andouille that we used for other recipes a few weeks ago instead of italian sausage; red pepper instead of green, brown lentils instead of green, etc.).

Soups get better with age. The flavors all leach out and blend together into a simmering bowl of yum.

268
Colère Tueur de Lapin  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:14:27pm

re: #145 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Death counts aren’t meaningless though. You can point at a person and say “he’s dead” and compare that to an area’s population.

I am not sure that a rotting corpse would count as dead for some of the conspiracy nutters.

269
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:15:36pm

re: #263 A Mom Anon

My baby just turned 26 about 10 days ago. It goes entirely too damned fast and you can’t do damned thing about it. Sigh….

And my son turned thirty-two in February. I feel old, and I’m not, dammit.

270
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:16:11pm

re: #266 Barefoot Grin

Last night was my wife’s work-late days with an elderly client, so I gathered from the cupboard and fridge what I could and made a lentil-mixed meat soup. It was pretty good last night. But, my god, it was so much better for lunch today. I took an internet recipe and just substituted what I had that was close (for example, ground pork and a little bit of kielbasa and andouille that we used for other recipes a few weeks ago instead of italian sausage; red pepper instead of green, brown lentils instead of green, etc.).

It is always amazing to me how much soups improve in the fridge. Always.

I’m sitting here doing meal planning for the next week, so I’m ready to grocery shop on Monday after the masks my mom made get here. (I have an okay short term solution in the meantime that I used when picking up lunch.) And Monday night’s dinner is going to be a soup mix that we grabbed on the way home from vacation, right as the shit was starting to hit the fan here. (Actually, we already ate that one but I was thrilled to find more at the supermarket and bought all of the remaining ones.)

Sierra Soups is apparently a local thing but their Tuscan peasant soup was AMAZING with some added carrot and celery and ham, and I subbed in some Better Than Bullion with the water because that shit is magic. And it requires super little effort on my part - I did the first one the night of my IUD replacement where I was not feeling super active. So good. So easy.

271
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:16:35pm

Current forecast track for Tropical Cyclone Harold:

Image: sh2520.gif

Island nations and territories which aren’t having to deal with Covid-19 still have to deal with this.

272
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:17:21pm

re: #222 Joe Bacon 🌹

Meanwhile the Megachurch 3 blocks away is going to continue with 7 services tomorrow.

SEVEN??

Motherfucker.

273
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:18:44pm

re: #272 Eclectic Cyborg

SEVEN??

Motherfucker.

Pulpit Pimp needs the ¢a$h!

274
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:19:07pm

re: #222 Joe Bacon 🌹

Meanwhile the Megachurch 3 blocks away is going to continue with 7 services tomorrow.

Once again, I have to give the religious people here in Rockwall serious props for not being that idiotic.

275
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:19:13pm

re: #264 klys (maker of Silmarils)

No it does not, lol.

276
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:22:37pm

re: #274 Belafon

Once again, I have to give the religious people here in Rockwall serious props for not being that idiotic.

I have no sympathy for these deluded fools who will ignore Dr. Fauchi and the experts and believe the bullshit coming out of The Heinous Anus!

277
Disloyal Archangel  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:22:59pm
278
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:25:36pm

re: #276 Joe Bacon 🌹

I have no sympathy for these deluded fools who will ignore Dr. Fauchi and the experts and believe the bullshit coming out of The Heinous Anus!

The problem is the same deluded fools will carry their viruses to those of us who aren’t deluded fools.

If they wanted to be welded into their church for three weeks, I’d be all for it (provided child services took their children away from them first—someone in their family would need to be alive to arrange their burials).

279
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:35:18pm

Only 54 new cases today! And one new death. We are definitely off the exponential growth curve at this point, you can tell that by eyeballing the total case graph. Women are finally catching up on the dying bit, ratio is down to 69 (nice) versus 31. Cases now at 52 versus 47. Cannot tease out what amount is under other versus unknown but that’s why the numbers don’t add up to 100.

In unrelated news, margaritas are tasty.

280
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:36:03pm

re: #265 Decatur Deb

Someone mentioned surplus toilet paper. If the Great TP Blockage has actually been cleared, we could research how excess could be turned into a short-term mask. Several plies and some masking tape should yield something as good as bed sheet cotton.

“Hello, NIOSH? I need a quick certification number.”

my sister recommends coffee filters.

281
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:36:11pm
282
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:37:30pm

re: #279 klys (maker of Silmarils)

Ugh, I can’t tequila. Sorry. We’re still on a straight line of new case growth - today was our highest day yet, but it was only 6 more new cases compared to the previous high a week ago, an increase of only 10% and well within variance. It makes 13 straight days of being within a range of 50-75 new cases per day, which gives me hope that we are doing the thing.

283
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:37:47pm

re: #281 Dread Pirate

That’s great, but does she sound concerned? That’s the important key word.

284
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:38:14pm

Natch.

285
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:39:01pm

re: #282 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

Ugh, I can’t tequila. Sorry. We’re still on a straight line of new case growth - today was our highest day yet, but it was only 6 more new cases compared to the previous high a week ago, an increase of only 10% and well within variance. It makes 13 straight days of being within a range of 50-75 new cases per day, which gives me hope that we are doing the thing.

How about a martini chilled with a frozen margarita. Too much?

Not too much.

God there was a point in my life where I could drink two of these and not be as tipsy as I am now without having finished the first. Thankfully we are well past that point. Weight loss plus a lower tolerance is a thing!

286
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:39:28pm

re: #285 klys (maker of Silmarils)

…did I mention it comes in pints?

It comes in pints.

287
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:40:37pm

re: #283 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

That’s great, but does she sound concerned? That’s the important key word.

Or disappointed. If she’s concerned and disappointed, well nothing really.

I’d roll my eyes but staring at the inside of my brain is as pointless as Collins herself.

288
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:41:50pm

re: #286 klys (maker of Silmarils)

…did I mention it comes in pints?

It comes in pints.

Spoken like a hobbit.

I’m still in the “destroying my liver” phase, but I think Mrs. Fish and I are both growing out of it.

289
Disloyal Archangel  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:42:53pm

If you were to look up the word “crowded” in a dictionary, a standard photo of the average Saturday in Tel Aviv, Israel would work as it’s ultimate embodiment - all the more so with HaShalom St., perhaps it’s most central street.

Not today with the #COVID19 regulations in play.

This, ladies and gents, is what safe, temporary quarantine should look like.

© Adir Lotan Photography
290
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:43:00pm

re: #284 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

Damn it. I have mixed feelings about Marcus because he founded and funds The Marcus Center for Autism at Emory. That’s where my son was diagnosed and it didn’t cost us a dime when our insurance at the time wouldn’t cover shit. But he’s a wingnut to the 100th power and always has been.

291
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:43:30pm

re: #288 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

I mentioned cheat day, right? It’s cheat day.

(occasionally mr. klys and I split one of these but not on cheat day. this is probably my 4-5-6th drink this week. because it is definitely worth more than one.)

292
unproven innocence  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:44:34pm

re: #114 NO SMOCKING GUN!

No one knows exactly how the WH came up with its 100k-240k range.

I don’t know for certain either, but I posted on 31 March when the range was 100k-200k:

[snip]
I also noticed (and was more than a little surprised) that
1% of 3% of 1,000,000,000/3 = 100,000 and
2% of 3% of 1,000,000,000/3 = 200,000 —exactly—
where
1% is a reasonable estimate for the CFR —Case Fatality Rate,
2% is a slightly more pessimistic estimate for the CFR, and the
3% is the assumed fraction of the US population that will have been infected at the end of the “first wave”, implicitly assuming “success” for combinations of human behavioral changes, etc, for stopping (or greatly slowing) new infections in the US, so the percentage infected is somehow prevented from exceeding about 3% in the very near future.
[snip]

If the 2% in that post (95) were replaced by 2.4%, the result would be 240,000. My guess is that 2.4% is merely a slightly more pessimistic estimate of the CFR than the 2% in that post. An explanation/basis for the 3% term remains unchanged:
Length of the epidemic

293
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:50:47pm

Hi I will get back on topic. Vaguely.

294
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:54:16pm
295
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:54:17pm

re: #293 klys (maker of Silmarils)

Hi I will get back on topic. Vaguely.

It’s an open thread. Topic? What topic?

296
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:58:45pm
297
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 3:58:46pm
298
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:00:52pm

John Boyega is a treasure.

299
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:03:10pm

re: #284 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

Natch.

Well, this sounds like a bunch of concerned public health groups.

Among the coalition’s members are a range of conservative medical and business groups, such as Americans for Fair Taxation, the American Hotel and Lodging Association, Young Americans Against Socialism and the Colorado Business Roundtable.

300
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:05:51pm

re: #290 A Mom Anon

Damn it. I have mixed feelings about Marcus because he founded and funds The Marcus Center for Autism at Emory. That’s where my son was diagnosed and it didn’t cost us a dime when our insurance at the time wouldn’t cover shit. But he’s a wingnut to the 100th power and always has been.

Marcus is first and foremost a libertarian who wants as many business regulations as possible removed, so he can sell you dangerous products (or in this case quackery).

Funding philanthropy is what makes parasitic billionaire libertarians seem like they are human.

Look up on line of the hundreds of thousands of prescription papers rained down on the Metropolitan Museum of Art because the Sackler family gave them a large donation.

301
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:05:56pm

re: #297 Dread Pirate

Just gotta pull themselves up by their own bootstraps.

302
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:09:33pm

A friend of the husband’s works as the lead maintenance dude at a big nursing home near Clearwater FL. Yesterday they told him they want him to convert one of the big walk in fridge units that they use for food into a morgue. He just has to figure out how to do it to code so it passes inspection and is safe. I do wonder if this might change this guy’s mind a bit about his politics. Stay tuned….

303
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:09:46pm
304
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:12:58pm

re: #302 A Mom Anon

A friend of the husband’s works as the lead maintenance dude at a big nursing home near Clearwater FL. Yesterday they told him they want him to convert one of the big walk in fridge units that they use for food into a morgue. He just has to figure out how to do it to code so it passes inspection and is safe. I do wonder if this might change this guy’s mind a bit about his politics. Stay tuned….

Code? Florida officials will be bothered with building codes for this?

More likely there are block grants available/////////////

305
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:15:15pm

re: #297 Dread Pirate

306
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:16:53pm

re: #303 klys (maker of Silmarils)

[Embedded content]

this one:

307
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:18:19pm

re: #303 klys (maker of Silmarils)

LOL

308
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:18:45pm

re: #304 Backwoods_Sleuth

They told him at minimum the morgue had to have negative pressure (I think that’s right, I am only going by their conversation about an hour ago) I guess to help prevent anything from escaping when the door is opened maybe? I’m not a construction expert so maybe I got it wrong. This is in anticipation of what’s to come, which is pretty ominous no matter how you look at it.

309
CleverToad  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:19:06pm

Social distancing report from the Denver suburbs:
It’s only been semi-successful at Toad Hall this week, and still seems to be a fair number of cars on the road when I’ve been out. Lots of people walking in the neighborhood, with and without dogs. Grocery stores aren’t too crowded, but not empty by any means.

Son started working at Safeway on Monday, into the breach and onto the front lines of the ‘essentials’ at $14.50 an hour. Hoping he can carry over his training from his chemistry lab work-study job — anything in the room could be dangerous, so treat it all as if it were. Fingers crossed, all day and every day now, which makes it hard to type.

Rambling detail below, if interested.

Kid’s job is about a mile away, walking distance but we’re driving him anyway so he can get home from work at 1 pm and get showered and changed before his college classes at 2. He’s training on ‘drive up and go’ orders, as an increasingly large part of their business. On his 6th day in a row, mostly 7-1 but 9-5:30 on Sat & Sun with overtime involved; doesn’t have a day off till next Wednesday. Gonna be tired! Today is the first day that our gov is recommending face coverings for everyone, so I sent him in with a disposable mask. Need to make cloth ones to rotate, over the next few days; experimenting with bandannas and hair ties.

So I have been to Target and Kohls to buy black pants and polo shirts for his uniform — order online for both; pick up at the service desk for Target and at the curb for Kohl’s. Two grocery stores for produce & supplies, feeling virtuous but slightly silly with an old scarf tied over my nose. Most people observing at least some distance, if not always 6 feet. Paper & cleaning supply shelves still gaping, hubby scored a 12-pack of TP, no Clorox to be had. Plexiglas shields for the cashiers, manager enforcing distance at the checkstand, limit of 2 cartons of eggs, 3 bread items at King Soopers/Krogers. Trip to the dispensary so foster kid could stock up his depleted supplies. (Must confess I wish he’d switch to edibles since the smoke stinks to high heaven and sets off my asthma, but he’s 21 and it’s legal. And it’s a lot less exposure for the household to drive him than for him to take light rail to get the stuff).

Doctor appointment Friday replaced with a phone call, though will have to go in sometime next week for a blood draw. Online church services. Lot of business phone calls to make, but should be able to stay in and off the roads most of next week, barring the kid drop-off and pick-up. Maybe I can catch up on the two weeks’ worth of Maddow and late night shows I have recorded.

Another three or four weeks of this and it might start feeling more real. Maybe. Still a part of the brain that stares at the news and can’t believe all this crap is happening. How the hell did we get here and why can’t somebody pry the ship’s wheel out of McConnell’s grasping little mitts…?

310
Rightwingconspirator  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:20:59pm

So I went over to Mom in laws place to do some chores, mow the lawn. Just my luck I hit something and bent the mower blade. Had to go to a Lowes, buy a blade and do a quick easy fix. what I hated was going to a store. For the next few weeks, I don’t want to go out around people at all. Too many idiots that went to Spring break or still party. Or go to church.

311
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:21:58pm

re: #309 CleverToad

a) The bandana and hairties method, which I used for my errands today, is okay short term but definitely won’t work long term. My mom made some that should arrive Monday for us; if you have the materials and a sewing machine I say that’s an excellent weekend project.

b) Smoking when there are others in the household is … I have strong opinions on that because most marijuana smells like skunk to me and nobody wants to sit next to a spraying skunk all the time but I highly second edibles in a shared household.

312
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:22:37pm

re: #308 A Mom Anon

They told him at minimum the morgue had to have negative pressure (I think that’s right, I am only going by their conversation about an hour ago) I guess to help prevent anything from escaping when the door is opened maybe? I’m not a construction expert so maybe I got it wrong. This is in anticipation of what’s to come, which is pretty ominous no matter how you look at it.

The negative pressure is for any time. It’s not going to be perfectly sealed, and the negative pressure just means the outside pressure will keep particulate in the freezer.

313
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:23:01pm
314
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:23:30pm

re: #310 Rightwingconspirator

I understand. Usually when I get paid I will go to DiBruno Bros and get some prepared food so I do not have to cook. The only store I have been to in the past few weeks has been my local Acme. And even when I go there I do not like being with crowds. Fortunately I go in the morning when it is relatively quiet.

315
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:24:27pm

Wow I screwed that up.

That’s bullshyte (as referenced above in the article from the Western Nebraska Observer when there was no Internet regarding the polio epidemic).

As for the flu pandemic, we closed our whole town to outsiders with the marshal and an armed posse (when there was no Internet, documented in our local newspaper available in the public library but not on the Internet in 2020).

316
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:27:15pm

re: #315 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Wow I fouled that paste up. Recycle to fix that.

317
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:28:14pm

re: #315 Anymouse 🌹🏡

I remember seeing that someone in 1918 Philly said that citizens should be allowed to attend a parade. They did. Practically everyone who did came down with the flu and many died.

318
Ace-o-aces  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:30:02pm
319
Shiplord Kirel, Friend of Moose and Squirrel  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:31:03pm
320
Kilroy was here  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:32:11pm

A simpler time….

Maxwell House Coffee Commercials - Sexist and Extremely Creepy - the way life should be!

A Mad Men could have done no better…

321
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:32:16pm

re: #294 Dread Pirate

That @MedCram had a very interesting TL. Thank you!

322
Ace-o-aces  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:35:48pm
323
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:36:02pm

he is just disgusting

324
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:36:22pm

re: #318 Ace-o-aces

Kinda looks like Trump’s signature a bit….

325
Ace-o-aces  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:36:41pm
326
jeffreyw  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:41:22pm

Pretty decent sous vide pork tenderloin with a honey mustard sauce. Sides are roasted cauliflower with garlic and Parmesan and my old standby of a boxed wild and long grain rice mix. Forgive the lack of any food styling. It really needed something green but my parsley got all yellow on me and the chives were not quite right.

327
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:41:23pm

re: #325 Ace-o-aces

need mohr updings

328
BeachDem  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:42:35pm

re: #317 PhillyPretzel

I remember seeing that someone in 1918 Philly said that citizens should be allowed to attend a parade. They did. Practically everyone who did came down with the flu and many died.

Here’s a story the WaPo had about it a few weeks ago.

What happens if parades aren’t canceled during pandemics? Philadelphia found out in 1918, with disastrous results.

washingtonpost.com

329
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:44:22pm

So on Facebook, Trumpers are posting laments about China, such as “why would anyone trust China?”

They seem oblivious that the same question is asked about Trump.

330
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:44:39pm
331
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:45:58pm

re: #328 BeachDem

Thank you for reposting it. Now all we have to do is convince DT and his followers this did happen and it would happen again if we lift these social distancing limitations.

332
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:51:34pm
333
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:53:03pm

Killed by a “hoax”

334
NO SMOCKING GUN!  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:55:52pm

re: #328 BeachDem

Here’s a story the WaPo had about it a few weeks ago.

What happens if parades aren’t canceled during pandemics? Philadelphia found out in 1918, with disastrous results.

washingtonpost.com

Every day at 5pm, Gov. Beshear shows a graph of the huge spike in flu in Phld, and the flattened curve in St Louis which instituted strict social distancing measures.

335
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:56:10pm
336
EPR-radar  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:57:00pm

re: #334 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Every day at 5pm, Gov. Beshear shows a graph of the huge spike in flu in Phld, and the flattened curve in St Louis which instituted strict social distancing measures.

An excellent example of learning from history so as not to repeat mistakes of the past (i.e., Philadelphia’s parade).

337
EPR-radar  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:58:09pm

re: #335 Dave In Austin

Behind every instance of Trump’s willful stupidity is the willful stupidity of tens of millions of Republicans.

As always, there is no pathology in Trump that is not dominant in the Republican party.

338
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 4:59:51pm
339
BeachDem  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:02:38pm

re: #331 PhillyPretzel

Thank you for reposting it. Now all we have to do is convince DT and his followers this did happen and it would happen again if we lift these social distancing limitations.

Probably need to change the name from Philadelphia—he’d probably see it as an acceptable loss.

340
EPR-radar  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:02:42pm

re: #338 Dread Pirate

Dammit. People really should be much more diligent about blaming Republicans. Kirschner’s question should be this: “At what point do elected Republicans stop letting Trump kill Americans?”

341
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:03:12pm

Please take 5min for Desk Dance. It makes me shake to one side……..

Tedeschi Trucks Band - Leavin’ Trunk (with Taj Mahal & Jerry Douglas)

342
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:04:18pm

re: #341 Dave In Austin

Reload

343
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:04:46pm

I just got back from my rounds of paying my bills (drop off the water bill, mail the other bills, pick up my mail).

Yay, not everything is shyte. Arrived from the VA today are my new trifocal glasses I was tested for on February 25 in Cheyenne, and my monthly supply of epilepsy meds (they will let me live another month).

Trying out my new spectacles now. The computer’s easier to read.

344
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:06:45pm

Did a few minutes breathing through fairly soft toilet paper (2 layers of “fuzzy” 1-ply). Two is the max I’d try, because breathing resistance is the limiting factor on safe use of resp. PPE. Now I’ll screw around with a velco/elastic retainer that will hold 2x3 replaceable segments across the face. Moist exhalation will be the limiter, but I’m looking for something that allows excursions of about 5 min total. A permeable barrier layer might help. Back in the day I’d have reamed a supervisor who came up with something like this.

345
William Lewis  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:06:50pm

re: #335 Dave In Austin

Maybe it’s because I’m reading the Harry Dresden books but that fool looks more like a demon vampire than a minister of the light.

346
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:09:15pm

re: #320 Kilroy was here

A simpler time….

A Mad Men could have done no better…

Wow, that has a real BDSM vibe there.

347
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:10:34pm

348
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:13:55pm

re: #347 Dave In Austin

And in 2034 they’ll be Quaranteens.

I’ll see myself out now…

349
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:14:56pm

re: #348 A Mom Anon

And in 2014 they’ll be Quaranteens.

I’ll see myself out now…

Very clever, but fix the year.

350
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:14:57pm
351
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:15:13pm

re: #345 William Lewis

Maybe it’s because I’m reading the Harry Dresden books but that fool looks more like a demon vampire than a minister of the light.

If you have a Kindle, check our Steve Higgs. All his stuff is on Kindle Unlimited for free. He’s a very good writer and his latest series is Urban Fantasy. His other stuff is all outstanding, too. LOL funny sometimes.

I can’t rec him highly enough.

352
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:15:17pm

re: #348 A Mom Anon

2014? Don’t you mean 2024? We all make mistakes we are human. :)

353
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:16:36pm

re: #352 PhillyPretzel

2014? Don’t you mean 2024? We all make mistakes we are human. :)

Speak for yourself, human. 😉

354
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:17:13pm

re: #352 PhillyPretzel

2014? Don’t you mean 2024? We all make mistakes we are human. :)

(Snicker) In 2024 they’ll only be quarantoddlers.

355
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:17:29pm

2014 /pedant

356
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:17:52pm

PEDANTS OF THE QUARN!

357
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:18:21pm

re: #356 jaunte

PEDANTS OF THE QUARN!

We’ve got nothing better to do. At the end of this quarantine, we’re all going to be grammar Nazis.

358
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:18:36pm

re: #354 Decatur Deb

true. But I did also say we all make mistakes. Besides I stink at math.

359
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:18:40pm

Counting Coup

360
Decatur Deb  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:19:13pm

re: #358 PhillyPretzel

true. But I did also say we all make mistakes. Besides I stink at math.

We’ve all been self-medicating.

361
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:19:44pm

This seems like a great idea:

362
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:20:10pm
363
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:22:55pm
364
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:23:49pm

re: #363 Charles Johnson

What you did there, I see it.

365
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:24:49pm

re: #357 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

We’ve got nothing better to do. At the end of this quarantine, we’re all going to be grammar Nazis.

Just remember, Hitler’s speechwriters were also grammar Nazis.

366
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:25:18pm

re: #365 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Just remember, Hitler’s speechwriters were also grammar Nazis.

*WHACK!*

367
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:25:52pm

re: #360 Decatur Deb

We’ve all been self-medicating.

at least tonight we are playing nice.

let’s keep doing that.

368
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:26:15pm
369
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:26:36pm

re: #367 Backwoods_Sleuth

at least tonight we are playing nice.

let’s keep doing that.

I’m sorry for any part I may have played in yesterday’s charlie foxtrot.

370
NetworkKed  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:27:04pm

re: #365 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Just remember, Hitler’s speechwriters were also grammar Nazis.

I did nazi that coming.

371
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:28:35pm

re: #369 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

I’m sorry for any part I may have played in yesterday’s charlie foxtrot.

Same here for the day before for me. My apologies to Teleskiguy for being snappy at him.

372
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:28:48pm

I woke up salty today.

373
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:29:01pm

Everybody’s salty now.

374
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:29:30pm

re: #372 Charles Johnson

I woke up salty today.

You’re not quite to the level of Lot’s wife yet, at least.

375
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:29:37pm

re: #369 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

I’m sorry for any part I may have played in yesterday’s charlie foxtrot.

well, a certain person just refused to stop doubling down and I was getting so annoyed that I had to walk away.

but not before issuing a flurry of downdings.

Two fucking days in a row…there was a possibility I could have run out of wine

376
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:32:20pm
377
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:32:25pm

re: #373 Charles Johnson

Everybody’s salty now.

THERE ARE NO RULES!!!

378
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:33:00pm

I’m slightly acidic.

379
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:33:43pm

re: #372 Charles Johnson

I woke up salty today.

You’re in luck, as I prefer pepper.

380
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:34:59pm

re: #378 jaunte

I’m slghtly acidic.

Things could be worse…

DONNY & MARIE~A LITTLE BIT COUNTRY, A LITTLE BIT ROCK ‘N’ ROLL

381
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:35:51pm

co-sign

382
PhillyPretzel  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:35:59pm

So far my collection of favorite TV shows and movies are keeping on balance. :)

383
Barefoot Grin  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:36:58pm

re: #373 Charles Johnson

Everybody’s salty now.

I know. I’m lying on my bed trying to hold the laptop while my dog licks my face like the creature from that Star Trek episode.

384
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:41:27pm

…”Bernie to Trump” trending on Twitter…

385
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:42:09pm

re: #384 Joe Bacon 🌹

…”Bernie to Trump” trending on Twitter…

sorry, sir, this is a KFC…

386
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:43:51pm

re: #348 A Mom Anon

Ok I fixed it. This is what I get for trying to be witty and clever. Sigh.

387
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:44:36pm

Afternoon update from DHHS: number of deaths in Nebraska are now eight.

Both deaths today are in Omaha, a man in his eighties in hospice care, and a woman in her seventies.

President Trump has declared Nebraska a disaster area today.

New infections are down again, for the third straight day.

The first death was a real estate agent in Omaha aged fifty-nine on March 24.

388
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:47:24pm

re: #328 BeachDem

Here’s a story the WaPo had about it a few weeks ago.

What happens if parades aren’t canceled during pandemics? Philadelphia found out in 1918, with disastrous results.

washingtonpost.com

en.wikipedia.org

389
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:50:16pm

re: #386 A Mom Anon

Ok I fixed it. This is what I get for trying to be witty and clever. Sigh.

nobody said there was supposed to be math tonight

390
plansbandc  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:50:25pm

re: #341 Dave In Austin

My fave live band. Hope to see them again someday soon.

391
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:52:57pm

re: #389 Backwoods_Sleuth

nobody said there was supposed to be math tonight

Alcohol, yes. Math, no.

392
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:52:59pm

Biden has told Sanders that he’s going ahead with picking his VP and cabinet: politico.com

393
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:54:07pm

re: #391 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

Alcohol, yes. Math, no.

with alcohol, most things are possible…or at least we think so…

hold mah beer…

394
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:54:43pm

re: #375 Backwoods_Sleuth

well, a certain person just refused to stop doubling down and I was getting so annoyed that I had to walk away.

but not before issuing a flurry of downdings.

Two fucking days in a row…there was a possibility I could have run out of wine

I collected my irritations elsewhere today and vented them on Twitter.

Probably also part of the problem is I am attempting to sober up so one of us could drive to get dinner if that’s the decision.

395
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:55:34pm

re: #392 Belafon

Biden has told Sanders that he’s going ahead with picking he VP and cabinet: politico.com

That’s going to leave a mark with the troops……

396
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:56:51pm

re: #394 klys (maker of Silmarils)

I collected my irritations elsewhere today and vented them on Twitter.

Probably also part of the problem is I am attempting to sober up so one of us could drive to get dinner if that’s the decision.

I got a call from work at 9:00 this morning while I was out getting Mrs. Fish’s coffee. RUDE. Thankfully, it was a simple problem, I was able to charge overtime for it, and the irritation is over.

397
klys (maker of Silmarils)  Apr 4, 2020 • 5:58:31pm

re: #396 Quoth the raven, Covfefe.

I got a call from work at 9:00 this morning while I was out getting Mrs. Fish’s coffee. RUDE. Thankfully, it was a simple problem, I was able to charge overtime for it, and the irritation is over.

Mine is probably a combination of “making friends is hard as you get older” and also “I think someone took offense at the fact that I find a certain type of teenage male obnoxious and said so and has decided to be passive-aggressive about this fact” but since I’m not 100% sure about the latter I’m doing lots of second-guessing myself.

398
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:00:14pm
399
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:00:37pm

re: #388 Eclectic Cyborg

en.wikipedia.org

The CDC uses the Philadelphia Liberty Loan Parade as the quintessential example of what not to do in an epidemic.

100 Years Since the Great Influenza Pandemic: CDC Updates Regulations for a Modern Era

400
Charles Johnson  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:01:26pm
401
Joe Bacon 🌹  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:04:58pm

Even if you could see it, millions of brainwashed MAGATS would still go outside…

402
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:09:55pm

Went to the grocery store late in the afternoon, later than I have been this week.

Things are starting to look a bit more frayed.

Including the workers. They seem tired, harassed.

Paper isle is still as barren as the surface of the Moon.

Frozen food isles are very low. Still have ice cream, but the frozen fruit, which went very quickly at the start of the lockdown, is still absent, no new deliveries.

Did people all of a sudden get an urge to bake pies? Do pies and toilet paper make some sort of duo of which I have been previously unaware?

403
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:10:15pm

re: #400 Charles Johnson

He’s got enablers that allowed this to happen. I hold every single Republican and their voters responsible for this madness. They have had many occasions to step in and stop it and they have done nothing but encourage him. If the GOP cared one damned bit they would have voted for impeachment and removal. But their money and political careers mean more than their constituents(except the rich ones). Rid ourselves of Trump and these fuckers will find someone even worse to foist upon us. They want the country to fail. No matter who dies in the process.

404
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:10:25pm

re: #401 Joe Bacon 🌹

Even if you could see it, millions of brainwashed MAGATS would still go outside…

[Embedded content]

They look like water mines.

Perhaps if you told them the virus was explosive, they would pay attention. /s

405
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:10:57pm
406
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:13:27pm

re: #405 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

So does that mean us poor people won’t get any sort of “stimulus cheque?” Figures.

Dammit, why do so many poor people vote for Republicans? (I already know the answer to that: racism. When someone asks why they don’t vote for their self-interest, I point out that is their self-interest.)

407
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:14:37pm

Sweetness and Light………..

Jimmy Herring & John McLaughlin

408
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:15:14pm

re: #405 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

So wtf happens to people who owe less than that 1200 dollars? Do they then owe the IRS money?

409
Belafon  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:15:49pm

re: #401 Joe Bacon 🌹

Even if you could see it, millions of brainwashed MAGATS would still go outside…

[Embedded content]

If I had to go vote, yes.

410
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:16:25pm

re: #408 A Mom Anon

So wtf happens to people who owe less than that 1200 dollars? Do they then owe the IRS money?

No clue. But based on that, I’d think so.

411
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:16:46pm

re: #406 Anymouse 🌹🏡

So does that mean us poor people won’t get any sort of “stimulus cheque?” Figures.

Dammit, why do so many poor people vote for Republicans? (I already know the answer to that: racism. When someone asks why they don’t vote for their self-interest, I point out that is their self-interest.)

were you expecting a refund in 2020 (for which you won’t be filing a return nor paying any taxes?)

412
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:17:10pm

re: #405 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

Welp, I was planning on spending that check, but now it’s going straight into savings, and I imagine a lot of people will do the same once this becomes widespread knowledge.

413
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:18:59pm
414
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:19:07pm

re: #405 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

415
Dave In Austin  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:19:14pm

re: #410 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

I bet it’s all smoke and we never see it.

416
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:19:45pm

re: #408 A Mom Anon

I believe the issue is simply how to account for non-taxable income.

It is easier for the IRS just to account for the $1200 as a refund, rather than publish new documents and forms.

417
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:19:52pm

re: #408 A Mom Anon

So wtf happens to people who owe less than that 1200 dollars? Do they then owe the IRS money?

If we elect a Democratic President, we might be able to get something passed before tax day making it a true Stimulus and not a bullshit advance.

418
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:20:05pm

Is there a way I can refuse the payment? I have enough money to see myself through, and I’d rather get the check next year.

419
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:20:32pm

Note that the $1200 is supposed to be NON-TAXABLE income.

420
Eclectic Cyborg  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:20:45pm

Why am I totally not surprised that Trump trashed Capt. Crozier?

421
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:20:52pm

re: #411 Backwoods_Sleuth

were you expecting a refund in 2020 (for which you won’t be filing a return nor paying any taxes?)

No. I have not filed tax forms since the Nineties. I do not have taxable income.

I did file a tax form this year, due to initial guidance that people who do not have a current address or a direct deposit account on file with the IRS would be overlooked.

422
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:22:16pm

re: #421 Anymouse 🌹🏡

The IRS does have my bank account info, but since I arrange my taxes so I owe and the end instead of getting a refund, IRS has not yet done an automatic deposit.

423
LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:22:23pm

re: #420 Eclectic Cyborg

Why am I totally not surprised that Trump trashed Capt. Crozier?

Because Trump loves trashing people who have integrity

424
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:22:42pm

re: #416 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

I believe the issue is simply how to account for non-taxable income.

It is easier for the IRS just to account for the $1200 as a refund, rather than publish new documents and forms.

And yet they set up a bullshyte means testing (which costs money they don’t have to spend on social programmes). Why bother if you’re just going to refund people’s tax payments?

425
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:23:26pm

re: #423 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)

Because Trump loves trashing people who have integrity

So does nearly every other conservative politician. Nothing new there.

426
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:24:33pm

re: #424 Anymouse 🌹🏡

I thought the means testing thing was from Congress, with the idea that the richer Americans don’t need the stimulus check.

427
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:25:01pm

re: #408 A Mom Anon

So wtf happens to people who owe less than that 1200 dollars? Do they then owe the IRS money?

According to the article it’s not taxable. There’s also no claw back mechanism. So I’m thinking no Liability.

But I’m not an accountant.

428
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:28:12pm

re: #336 EPR-radar

An excellent example of learning from history so as not to repeat mistakes of the past (i.e., Philadelphia’s parade).

See also, 1918 American Samoa v. British Samoa.

The one that did blockade/quarantine had zero flu deaths. The one that didn’t, lost 20% of their population.

429
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:29:31pm

re: #426 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

I thought the means testing thing was from Congress, with the idea that the richer Americans don’t need the stimulus check.

It’s lessened the more you make.

The maximum payment is $1,200 for single filers with an AGI below $75,000 or single parents (heads of household) with an AGI below $112,500. Married couples who file jointly and have an AGI below $150,000 will get a total of $2,400.

Payments will begin to phase out at a rate of $5 for each $100 over the AGI threshold before ceasing at an AGI of $99,000 for single filers, $136,500 for heads of household, and $198,000 for married filers. There’s also an additional $500 allotted to parents who have an AGI within the phaseout range for each child younger than 16.

430
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:30:10pm

re: #426 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

I thought the means testing thing was from Congress, with the idea that the richer Americans don’t need the stimulus check.

Which doesn’t mean anything if the IRS is advancing your own tax payments.

431
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:32:22pm

Yeah. That’ll happen.

432
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:32:53pm

re: #427 Yeah Sure WhatEVs

re: #430 Anymouse 🌹🏡

From what I can access on the IRS website, the $1200 is simply a credit, put on the 2020 tax bill, that then if you receive the $1200 through some means, balances out the credit.

So it is non-taxable. I think people are being confused by an accounting trick.

433
i(m)p(each)sos  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:36:03pm

re: #430 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Which doesn’t mean anything if the IRS is advancing your own tax payments.

Which they’re not.

The tweet being quoted above isn’t accurate, at least not according to my Democratic congressman. He was on the radio here yesterday and fielded that question. The correct answer is that this is a non-taxable deposit from the government. It’s not an advance on your refund, now or in 2021.

The only clawback, and it’s a rare one, is this: if you haven’t filed your 2019 return, the amount of the check will be based on your 2018 return. If you then file a 2019 return showing income greater than $75,000, you’ll have to repay however much more you received than what you were entitled to. So if you made $74,999 in 2018, got a $1200 check, then filed a 2019 return showing $100,001 in income, you’d owe back the full $1200. That would be the most extreme case, in theory.

434
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:37:12pm

IHME promised us an update to their model, out today. But as of a couple of minutes ago, this update is not online.

I suspect the updated model will increase the expected number of deaths by 4 August.

435
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:39:35pm

Republican Governors Explain, Poorly, Why They Are Being Coronavirus Idiots (Wonkette)

Eight governors have not issued stay-at-home orders, all Republican (including my state with its targeted health measures because viruses respect county lines).

Robyn Pennacchia figures they think if they get out of this without too many dead, they can run on that, and if a lot of people die, they can blame it on Democrats.

436
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:40:10pm

re: #433 i(m)p(each)sos

Thanks for the good information.

437
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:42:44pm

re: #433 i(m)p(each)sos

Thanks for the explanation. Well, the IRS will get my $0 tax form in a couple days.

438
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:42:53pm

February 26:

439
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:44:58pm
440
jaunte  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:44:59pm

re: #432 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

From what I can access on the IRS website, the $1200 is simply a credit, put on the 2020 tax bill, that then if you receive the $1200 through some means, balances out the credit.

So it is non-taxable. I think people are being confused by an accounting trick.

It figures that the one solution the GOP would have is a tax cut.

441
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:45:47pm
442
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:47:03pm

re: #440 jaunte

It figures that the one solution the GOP would have is a tax cut.

I expect it would have just been an increase in the “standard deduction” if the Republicans had their way.

Anyway, Trump now has a $500B by which to line his own pockets. We all would have been better off if that money was distributed directly to the American people, giving us a $3k credit instead of a $1.2k credit.

443
goddamnedfrank  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:47:25pm

re: #432 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

From what I can access on the IRS website, the $1200 is simply a credit, put on the 2020 tax bill, that then if you receive the $1200 through some means, balances out the credit.

So it is non-taxable. I think people are being confused by an accounting trick.

They could also make it non-taxable by simple calling it gift. This trick is unnecessary and is designed to simply claw the money back, minus lost interest.

444
sagehen  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:47:51pm

re: #435 Anymouse 🌹🏡

Republican Governors Explain, Poorly, Why They Are Being Coronavirus Idiots (Wonkette)

Eight governors have not issued stay-at-home orders, all Republican (including my state with its targeted health measures because viruses respect county lines).

Robyn Pennacchia figures they think if they get out of this without too many dead, they can run on that, and if a lot of people die, they can blame it on Democrats.

The Governor of Connecticut was on CNN the other day, pointing out the idiocy of thinking state lines matter and suggesting instead we look at it as a regional thing. Because a lot of southern CT and northern NJ is people who commute to Manhattan for work and should be considered functionally New Yorkers. (southern NJ is full of people whose jobs are in Philly.)

445
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:48:39pm
446
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:49:34pm

re: #441 Backwoods_Sleuth

All sorts of morans weighing in on that thread. Biden! Ukraine’s corrupt! Andrea Chalupa! AAAAAaaaaa!

447
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:50:40pm

re: #443 goddamnedfrank

They could also make it non-taxable by simple calling it gift. This trick is unnecessary and is designed to simply claw the money back, minus lost interest.

But that would mean the government can actually give gifts… and that is an unforgivable sin in the Republican religion.

448
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:52:01pm

re: #444 sagehen

The same issue exists here in the Nebraska Panhandle. Traffic back and forth between Scottsbluff and Torrington, Wyoming; between Chadron and Hot Springs, South Dakota, between Sidney and Sterling, Colorado, and between Kimball and Weld County, Colorado and Pine Bluffs, Wyoming.

449
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:53:56pm

It’s times like this that the old idea, floated in the Nixon era, of a reverse tax a.k.a. a basic income distributed to all Americans, make sense.

We would not be so frantically worrying about unemployment rates, bank failures from non-repayment of loans, etc.

But of course such ideas, back when progressive ideas were still considered serious things, couldn’t get past the socialism=satanism in the minds of too many Americans.

The $1200 is such a reverse-tax, just at about 1/30th of what is needed for a minimum annual income in most of the US (and about 1/50th the amount needed in expensive urban areas.)

450
A Mom Anon  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:57:19pm

re: #449 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus

1200 bucks is barely a mortgage or monthly rent payment, it’s a bandaid on a damned amputated hand. To me it’s a lot of money, but it’s not going to go nearly far enough for anyone with the cost of everything now.

451
Backwoods_Sleuth  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:58:08pm
452
Shiplord Kirel, Friend of Moose and Squirrel  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:58:10pm

re: #428 sagehen

See also, 1918 American Samoa v. British Samoa.

The one that did blockade/quarantine had zero flu deaths. The one that didn’t, lost 20% of their population.

Commander John Martin Poyer was the naval governor of American Samoa who instituted the successful quarantine. Lieutenant Colonel Robert Logan, a politician and army officer from New Zealand, was administrator of Western Samoa, which had just been seized from the Germans at the beginning of World War I. Logan made a series of misjudgments during his tenure, including confiscating German owned plantations (throwing thousands of locals out of work) and severely curtailing the civil rights of Chinese laborers, most of whom were deported. His big one, though, was the admission of the plague ship SS Talune.

By not implementing quarantine procedures for the arrival of the SS Talune from Auckland on 7 November 1918, which was allowed to berth by Logan without quarantine precautions; he significantly mishandled the arrival of the influenza pandemic in November 1918. The Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Epidemic concluded that there had been no epidemic of pneumonic influenza in Western Samoa before her arrival. The epidemic resulted in over 7,500 deaths, or over 20% of Samoa’s population at the time. In the meantime, neighbouring American Samoa was quarantined by its Governor, John Martin Poyer, and consequently had no influenza deaths.

He was so incensed at Poyer’s quarantine that he cut off all communication with the American islands. Both men are still household names in their respective territories, Poyer as hero and savior, and Logan as a kind of bogey-man.

453
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 6:59:01pm

re: #450 A Mom Anon

1200 bucks is barely a mortgage or monthly rent payment, it’s a bandaid on a damned amputated hand. To me it’s a lot of money, but it’s not going to go nearly far enough for anyone with the cost of everything now.

It’s less than my monthly mortgage, though I live in an area with a high cost of living. Obviously designed to screw people living in blue states.

/////////////

454
Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:01:15pm

re: #450 A Mom Anon

Which is why the amount should be $3k, as I wrote, and $5k for families or those living in high priced areas.

455
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:03:32pm

re: #450 A Mom Anon

1200 bucks is barely a mortgage or monthly rent payment, it’s a bandaid on a damned amputated hand. To me it’s a lot of money, but it’s not going to go nearly far enough for anyone with the cost of everything now.

It’s about three weeks of all our expenditures (because we live really cheaply).

456
FormerDirtDart 🍕🐀 No Capt'n😷Trips  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:04:28pm
457
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:06:59pm

The village park was ordered closed yesterday, after too many children were seen gathering there in violation of the governor’s ban on more than ten people gathering here.

So far, no one seems to be breaking the order.

458
Quoth the raven, Covfefe.  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:08:56pm

re: #457 Anymouse 🌹🏡

The village park was ordered closed yesterday, after too many children were seen gathering there in violation of the governor’s ban on more than ten people gathering here.

So far, no one seems to be breaking the order.

I’m an avid Pokemon Go player. Out here in the suburbs, we’ve been taking an amusing take on social distancing. We still gather for raids, but instead of a clump of nerds staring at their phones, now it’s more like a loose cloud. Niantic doubled the interaction distance around these raid points, so even urban players have more than enough space to stand apart and still participate.

459
Patricia Kayden  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:09:50pm

re: #14 Targetpractice

If you read the comments on that thread, you’ll see that a few bitter Bernie Bros state that they’re not voting at all because Biden is the worst. One even said that she’s leaving the Democratic Party altogether. My eyes can’t roll hard enough.

460
calochortus  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:12:55pm

I made 4 cloth masks today, since we are being encouraged to wear them now. One each for me, Mr. C., our son and his fiancee. Up tomorrow will be masks for daughter, son-in-law, my brother and his wife. I could make more, but I totally fail at the “stash of fabrics” part of sewing so my fabric options are limited. Fortunately the masks take fairly small amounts so I can use the remnants from things that had fabric left over that was too cute to use as rags.

As a reward to myself, perhaps I should make myself a margarita this evening (since Klys brought the subject up.)

461
Dread Pirate  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:13:21pm
462
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:14:41pm

Hundreds attend horse auction despite calls to cancel (KCCI Des Moines)

Governor Kim Reynolds (R) declared livestock auctions to be essential services, because of the food chain.

This auction was for a bunch of trotter horses. I’m pretty sure no one in Iowa is planning on turning them into food.

SEYMOUR, Iowa —

Several hundred people from Iowa and out-of-state gathered in Wayne County for a horse auction Thursday, despite social distancing guidelines in Iowa.

The Midwest Trotting Horse Sale near Seymour was originally scheduled for March 18 but was postponed due to state guidelines that prohibited gatherings of 10 or more people.

The Wayne County Health Department set up checkpoints to pre-screen people before they went on to the property. Department officials said they took the names of 488 people who showed up from the auction.

(more)

463
makeitstop  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:19:09pm

Casler has been baiting Trump for a while, and Trump has never said a word.

464
plansbandc  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:19:14pm

Today I saw a picnic in my usual dog walking park. I went to a different park, and kids were playing basketball with their dad. There were other kids running around and playing, and people playing tennis.

Then I went to a different park and watched a dad let his infant son pretty much touch everything in the park. The picnic tables, the playground equipment, the trash cans.

I finally found a small area of one of my regular parks to walk my dog.

Social distancing? What is that?? Also, this was a nice day, the first of many many to come. I think people are just gonna start gathering in droves.

465
calochortus  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:22:08pm

re: #464 plansbandc

Today I saw a picnic in my usual dog walking park. I went to a different park, and kids were playing basketball with their dad. There were other kids running around and playing, and people playing tennis.

Then I went to a different park and watched a dad let his infant son pretty much touch everything in the park. The picnic tables, the playground equipment, the trash cans.

I finally found a small area of one of my regular parks to walk my dog.

Social distancing? What is that?? Also, this was a nice day, the first of many many to come. I think people are just gonna start gathering in droves.

We’ve had a lot of parks, hiking trails and open spaces closed here because people just couldn’t manage to not congregate in unhealthy numbers.

466
7-y (Expectation of Great Things in Due Course)  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:27:29pm

I am a disc golf advocate and live on my own private course, 19nacres. It’s one of the few things people can fairly safely play, but because it has been one of the few things open and public parks the public spaces have been overwhelmed by people who don’t understand the sport and who congregate in unsafe ways. It’s quite a challenge for us.

467
Yeah Sure WhatEVs  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:28:00pm

re: #464 plansbandc

Today I saw a picnic in my usual dog walking park. I went to a different park, and kids were playing basketball with their dad. There were other kids running around and playing, and people playing tennis.

Then I went to a different park and watched a dad let his infant son pretty much touch everything in the park. The picnic tables, the playground equipment, the trash cans.

I finally found a small area of one of my regular parks to walk my dog.

Social distancing? What is that?? Also, this was a nice day, the first of many many to come. I think people are just gonna start gathering in droves.

I think family units that live together don’t have to do social distancing. All else should… Friends and family, anyone your don’t live with.

468
FormerDirtDart 🍕🐀 No Capt'n😷Trips  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:28:40pm
469
Anymouse 🌹🏡  Apr 4, 2020 • 7:46:59pm

Who are these people?

470
Eventual Carrion  Apr 5, 2020 • 9:15:15am

re: #158 steve_davis

I’m a bit nervous about this. I find myself having a beer with lunch and then twoish glasses of wine with dinner. I’m not worried about blowing through my liver, but I really prefer to have something to go to that keeps me from drinking in the afternoon.

Cocaine?

471
Eventual Carrion  Apr 5, 2020 • 11:52:44am

re: #313 Dave In Austin

[Embedded content]

It’s a bear not a kangaroo.


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