WATCH LIVE: Barack Obama Campaigns for Joe Biden in Miami, Florida
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We’re coming up on crunch time, folks.
152 comments
Sticking to those Trump talking points.
Gov. Ricketts: Coronavirus vaccines will be free to all Nebraskans (Omaha World-Herald)
There aren’t any, and there won’t be any for quite a while (if at all).
LINCOLN — Gov. Pete Ricketts announced Monday that coronavirus vaccinations will be provided free for all Nebraskans, when the vaccine is available.
That includes people who are covered by Medicare, Medicaid or private health insurance or who have no insurance, he said.
State health officials joined the governor last week to unveil a plan for distributing the vaccine. At the time, they said the vaccine itself would be free but they did not have an answer about the cost for administering the vaccine.
At a press conference Monday, Ricketts said people will not have to pay any costs associated with getting the vaccine, including any co-pays and deductibles that would normally be required.
(more)
Repeating the tagline of LBJ’s 1964 Daisy ad.
VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT BIDEN ON NOVEMBER 3RD. THE STAKES ARE TOO HIGH FOR YOU TO STAY HOME!
Barack ends his speech NOT with the tired political bromide “God bless the United States of America” but with “I love you”.
Love ya back!
State health officials joined the governor last week to unveil a plan for distributing the unicorns. At the time, they said the unicorns themselves would be free but they did not have an answer about the cost for administering the unicorns.
At a press conference Monday, Ricketts said people will not have to pay any costs associated with getting the unicorns, including any co-pays and deductibles that would normally be required.
pic.twitter.com/UYdNfk4LPr https://t.co/w4RaPbZdNu
— Tim O’Brien (@TimOBrien) October 31, 2020
re: #4 🌹UOJB!
Repeating the tagline of LBJ’s 1964 Daisy ad.
VOTE FOR VICE-PRESIDENT BIDEN ON NOVEMBER 3RD. THE STAKES ARE TOO HIGH FOR YOU TO STAY HOME!
(1:20, Library of Congress)
The gamblers seem to favor Biden:
Someone has placed a £1 million, or $1.29 million, bet on Biden to be the next president on the Betfair Exchange, the world’s largest online betting exchange, where gamblers find other gamblers who match their wagers.
Current odds have Biden as a -188 favorite, Trump is at +188. At least at the website I saw.
Some random Trump staffer on The NewsHour just told us that polls don’t matter at this point. It’s all about turnout!!!!! I take that as a good sign for Biden.
re: #10 calochortus
Some random Trump staffer on The NewsHour just told us that polls don’t matter at this point. It’s all about turnout!!!!! I take that as a good sign for Biden.
But didn’t Trump say a few days ago the real polls show him way ahead?
//////
re: #10 calochortus
Some random Trump staffer on The NewsHour just told us that polls don’t matter at this point. It’s all about turnout!!!!! I take that as a good sign for Biden.
If you’re betting on in-person turnout after weeks of record early voting and mail-in voting, then I got some bad news for ya…
We resolved the non-payment of my wife’s emergency stimulus cheque which should have been here half a year ago.
The IRS finally got their tool for checking the status fixed; they have received our Form 1040, processed it, and the money is supposed to be deposited Nov. 4.
November 21 is the last day to apply if you have not received a cheque, and according to them, you must be in the system if any other cheque comes later from a future bill.
re: #10 calochortus
Some random Trump staffer on The NewsHour just told us that polls don’t matter at this point. It’s all about turnout!!!!! I take that as a good sign for Biden.
Was it Satan’s Tinkerbelle, Deadbeat Dad Miller or Hogan’s ZEROS?
re: #11 Eclectic Cyborg
But didn’t Trump say a few days ago the real polls show him way ahead?
//////
Details, details.
The Biden person is on now. She is smiling (unlike the Trumper) and saying the polls may be a bit overoptimistic, but they are confident, having done the work.
re: #14 🌹UOJB!
Was it Satan’s Tinkerbelle, Deadbeat Dad Miller or Hogan’s ZEROS?
It was a woman I’m not familiar with from his press office.
Pelosi on MSNBC now: “I would say it would be a pleasure to be here, but 230,000 Americans are dead.”
Yes, I did. By mail, way early. For Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
The most consequential election I will ever vote in. pic.twitter.com/T3KWPF9Vzh— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 2, 2020
Got CL’d on the last thread…
A few things to keep in mind as polls close tomorrow:
Don’t be surprised that Trump is ahead or holding his own in the raw popular vote early on. Besides, Biden figures to win the Pacific Coast states by at least 6 million votes.
Don’t be surprised if Virginia stays close for a bit. Recent history shows the larger areas of the Old Dominion state are always later to report.
I’m going to be keeping an eye on North Carolina returns at the county levels. In particular, Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Durham (Durham), Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Orange (Chapel Hill), Buncombe (Asheville), and New Hanover (Wilmington) counties. Aside from New Hanover, these are population centers where Biden should rack up big margins. If New Hanover flips to favoring Biden, that would be great news. I’ll be trying to compare totals from 2016.
I need a good victory celebration song for Wednesday. Any suggestions?
Damn…I ordered a 12 pack of Faygo Diet Redpop from Amazon…just got a text that the truck it was in had an accident…and the package was severely damaged…Was going to crack a can open when victory comes…
The wingnuts on the Alliance school board finally cave to state and health district pressure. They would not cooperate with either over providing information about coronavirus outbreaks in the public school system.
Facing state and local pressure over its response to the pandemic, a school district in the Nebraska Panhandle has tightened its COVID-19 protocols and agreed to cooperate with the local health department.
Alliance school board members held an emergency meeting Oct. 25 and added language to their reopening plan making clear it would cooperate on health department investigations.
Masks are now “highly recommended” for students and visitors, not just recommended.
Classroom seating will be arranged to attempt to maintain 6-foot distancing between masked and unmasked students.
Board President Tim Kollars said the district has had strained relations with the Panhandle Public Health District over the intensity of the district’s initial reopening plan.
“We don’t have that many people getting sick,” he said.
Health director Kim Engel said that by not cooperating, the district prevented contact tracing necessary to protect others and prevent spread.
(more)
Under pressure, Alliance schools enhance COVID-19 rules, vow to cooperate with health officials (Omaha World-Herald)
This is getting attention of the press on the other side of the state from us because they are being so bullheaded.
Box Butte County (seat Alliance, pop 11,308) has the second-worst number of cases in the Panhandle, with 378 total, 74 active, 1 dead.
As bad as the response has been from Lincoln, the Alliance school district has been worse.
re: #20 Eclectic Cyborg
I need a good victory celebration song for Wednesday. Any suggestions?
Oh the minute Joe goes over 270 it’s time to dedicate this to Trump!
it has to be the live version that I heard at the Anticlub election night 1984…
It never ends. Republicans are determined to win elections in court instead of allowing Americans to cast ballots for who they want to put in office. https://t.co/eCD2mz26J4
— Laffy (@GottaLaff) November 2, 2020
re: #13 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
We resolved the non-payment of my wife’s emergency stimulus cheque which should have been here half a year ago.
The IRS finally got their tool for checking the status fixed; they have received our Form 1040, processed it, and the money is supposed to be deposited Nov. 4.
November 21 is the last day to apply if you have not received a cheque, and according to them, you must be in the system if any other cheque comes later from a future bill.
Still not fixed for me. Still no payment. No stimulus for me I guess.
I didn’t see any application either. Just a Get My Payment button.
Another reason to feel optimistic:
If Trump wins all three Needle States the election is 50:50. https://t.co/1loKiZVJXp https://t.co/eU80ScUyBT pic.twitter.com/rRmhSkz3W3
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
Trump’s advisors: “Mr. President, we have no good closing argument. You’ve ruined the economy, our reputation overseas, the pandemic response. & You literally toured the country as a superspreader. There’s only 1 choice. You have to lean into racis…”
Trump: “Way ahead of you!” https://t.co/OmR223BL4z— W. Kamau Bell (@wkamaubell) November 2, 2020
Will the RNC attempt to claw back all of the money their candidates stole from them?
re: #26 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
Still not fixed for me. Still no payment. No stimulus for me I guess.
I didn’t see any application either. Just a Get My Payment button.
That’s the button you use to both check the status and enter information they might not have.
If it has been processed, it will tell you what date it is to be sent. It also allows you to enter information if they have none.
re: #20 Eclectic Cyborg
I would humbly suggest Nick Lowe’s anthemic Stick IT Where The Sun Don’t Shine
re: #29 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
Why optimistic?
Because if I say “confident,” the Gods of Probability will smite me. Or somethin’.
Not sure this is the winning slogan they seem to think it is. https://t.co/UFPqeuL5fR
— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs) November 2, 2020
We have Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, John Legend, Stevie Wonder, and Bruce Springsteen backing Biden.
trump has the Taliban, Ted Nugent, Chachi, and James Woods supporting his stupid ass.
Our side ROCKS.
But STILL…#DontGetComplacent— BrooklynDad_Defiant! (@mmpadellan) November 2, 2020
We also have Eminem, Jon Bon Jovi, John Fogerty, Sam Elliott, and the Rock.
re: #27 Targetpractice
Another reason to feel optimistic:
[Embedded content]
Also to show the other side of the coin
If Biden takes Florida but not the other two, Biden’s odds of winning are 97-3
Biden takes NC but not the other two his odds of winning are 93-7
Biden takes Georgia but not the other two his odds of winning are 76-22
Also the moment Biden takes New Hampshire (with it being the only battle ground state called) his odds become 93-7 and if he takes Georgia and New Hampshire but looses Florida and NC his odds are still 90-8 with two ties.
I am optimistic but nervous.
PLEASE let that orange faced shitheel go down tomorrow. My 2020 needs some joy.
re: #31 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
This is what I get from the first time I checked months ago - and it hasn’t ever changed.
Names/work schedules of employees & contractors deemed confidential
Info on transportation of ballots deemed confidential
Composition/schedule of bipartisan counting board can be produced after 11/20
Communications w/ voters also deemed confidential pic.twitter.com/wPWR7Tjtka— Riley Snyder (@RileySnyder) November 2, 2020
re: #35 DodgerFan1988
[Embedded content]
We also have Eminem, Jon Bon Jovi, John Fogerty, Sam Elliott, and the Rock.
A LOT more fun over by our stage… over by theirs, it looks like not too many people are interested in Chachi/James Woods duets of Lee Greenwood’s greatest hits
re: #25 jaunte
Since the district judge dismissed the case on the grounds the plaintiff had no standing (he lives in Arlington, where they also allowed drive through voting), I would hope the 5th Circuit also dismisses it on those grounds.
The judge also saw no difference in defining a structure between a tent and a building. Neither is curb-side voting, which the claim is based upon.
Also, he found that voting complied with all Texas laws regarding security, including voter ID and such.
It would really take some pretzel logic for the 5th Circuit to accept it after his thorough dismissal (followed by the inevitable appeal to the Supreme Court in a last desperate attempt).
re: #35 DodgerFan1988
[Embedded content]
We also have Eminem, Jon Bon Jovi, John Fogerty, Sam Elliott, and the Rock.
And the Chicks, Hamilton cast, Princess Bride Cast, Veep cast, etc. (but hey, they have Kirk Cameron, a few obnoxious golfers and Brett Favre, so it’s pretty close///)
re: #33 Targetpractice
Because if I say “confident,” the Gods of Probability will smite me. Or somethin’.
I have a really bad relationship with probability, dice rolls, and RNGesus. So I get it.
re: #23 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus
Sweet jeebus. Latest NHC advisory is predicting catastrophic storm surge. Bombogenesis had it go from a cat 1 to cat 4 in about 48 hours.
re: #35 DodgerFan1988
We also have Eminem, Jon Bon Jovi, John Fogerty, Sam Elliott, and the Rock.
Pink too…
1. Stop scrolling.
2. Help voters.
3. Win FL, NC, and PA 👇https://t.co/FX1JOweyfo— P!nk (@Pink) November 2, 2020
re: #27 Targetpractice
In which Nate is showing his model in a system-state that does not reflect current polling (Biden leading Trump in FL and NC.)
What Nate is doing is trying to convince us that when he calls two of those states tomorrow night the election is over.
Good marketing by Nate, I suppose.
re: #43 BeachDem
And the Chicks, Hamilton cast, Princess Bride Cast, Veep cast, etc. (but hey, they have Kirk Cameron, a few obnoxious golfers and Brett Favre, so it’s pretty close///)
When I was 5, my Dad took me to Clinton’s first inauguration. I was obsessed with the Presidents as a little kid and Bill had better music than HW Bush was going to. But I think Dad had hope for Bill the same reasons I do with Biden.
Don’t forget Kirk Cameron!https://t.co/OYqXpz66Kn
— The 3-D Zanti Regent (@josephebacon) November 2, 2020
evil too big to fail bank blues
yPZSN4IZek/IJzhXEIQxYbuCdStPU4tkKSGcA/tyXC9idDbe5RjPqQTu+2d/lKPk8JuBY3cBRzmpxcEQ75ZdEz57etr3lsq7WQSvIDyu7jkBujdQGHn9lWdiD7/mIkksFP5XLkLBauIuSQ8fuBnXwoTo5uR+so9uugV3HFcWuCUAMfzRugcknAc45ZL5c1xZKF1BkXhBXFniVAokG3iJKqlOAaXb9eLKCs8BGP/j+mlB44lN64Ehns7hAN4bGU2fR2tPfjGXAeugAlBCxE8bU2LxBsiEW+OwvhCkxY/Wxtx1r2WmA0r1ljFSphSE8g+bUlwfmXWp7bsl/6yIZZ8lCfs8CQdIN8l6CbuuX5OO/GFEyKNSpYwah4xUVidir7WN6LROoMqAlQmJsNIBfopDgrLioLVfUjyUHQ13z1KlBnSavkejf+QmClYIAFL335Mp
re: #45 lawhawk
Sweet jeebus. Latest NHC advisory is predicting catastrophic storm surge. Bombogenesis had it go from a cat 1 to cat 4 in about 48 hours.
Zeta was initially predicted to come in here as a cat 1 or tropical storm but I know how hot the water temps have been in the Gulf this year for an extended period of time so I felt from the beginning it was going to pack more of a punch than that. Turns out I was right.
Just more effects of climate change.
re: #20 Eclectic Cyborg
I need a good victory celebration song for Wednesday. Any suggestions?
It’s hard to go wrong with Robyn Hitchcock.
re: #45 lawhawk
The Caribbean is very pro-cyclone this time of year.
A lot of flooding in central America the next few days.
The remnant of Eta is likely to survive, emerge east of Belize, possibly reform.
re: #34 Charles Johnson
That’s quite the closing message from Trump. He’s going after:
Hillary, Lebron, and Lady Gaga.
Last time I checked, none of them are running to be president in 2020.
But his sycophantic suckups and base don’t care about any of that. And that’s scarier than the fact that Trump thinks this is a winning message.
re: #38 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
Try typing your info in all caps. I had that message and someone told me to try all caps and it worked.
🌨️❄️Warm temps & dry conditions continuing this week across southeast Wyoming & western Nebraska. But, winter is coming this weekend with a winter system. Temps will drop quickly with a decent possibility of snowfall across the region starting Saturday. #wywx #newx pic.twitter.com/ZfSY7d0xT6
— NWS Cheyenne (@NWSCheyenne) November 2, 2020
re: #51 Eclectic Cyborg
Yeah, I was looking back at the earlier NHC guidance and they were suggesting Cat 1 at landfall and quickly falling apart.
Instead, we have seen it turn into a highly organized and strong storm with life threatening wind and storm surge. Nicaragua and Honduras are in the crosshairs.
re: #56 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
A nice 84F/27% today in the strait.
Updates have been posted to the #MiddleForkFire_CO and #MullenFire_WY InciWeb pages. While containment increases, the fires continue to smolder and smoke. Please remember to respect area closures and fire restrictions in place as things dry out this week. https://t.co/NENHrtLlwV pic.twitter.com/p6YYW6oaYk
— Medicine Bow-Routt NFs & Thunder Basin NG (@FS_MBRTB) November 2, 2020
re: #55 gocart mozart
Try typing your info in all caps. I had that message and someone told me to try all caps and it worked.
Thanks but nope.
OT, but I’d like to send a big “FUCK YOU” to the Dodge engineers that designed my vehicle because WHY THE FUCK DO I NEED A TAKE A TIRE OFF TO CHANGE MY DAMN BATTERY??
I had to have a freaking mechanic do it in the end but at least he charged me a fair rate.
Putting batteries in weird locations was one of the stupidest things car makers started doing. And even if you are going to put it in a random location, at least make it ACCESSIBLE. My mother-in-laws old Buick had a battery that was under the back seat, but at least in that case you could just pop the seat bottom off and get access to it without much drama.
Another one of my relatives has Covid-19:
08udMP7PE4lQLl/1gKdeLOhSwTtX0z1pxRNADWbVfqHwQ5ejd/TUAZm6qsP1702I9f8lymbsAJw+hdRb1jBVmV77euiSN7AdCRfV3OKUhKpdMmtUia0izze+6YoiImhKolSXAFdgU0H8aSrb9E5LLIsvkMuf/8pfRbE8XK+H0d+iy1mqsq5Vv22usRZYEJbgY82+85ETi18r1oL4aT47euI352+cKrtI/dAR2/Y+lvfBAKUoGBClBGhMWCBeQ9NvyE+q8aBuLdvM1qcdpCmWHm+XKHPecoxDnZQYfG83yvJ+gyMApXOns5I5rkCHB+nz1kxcxeWV7CI3ibLPS5aB3qpyudtfmmfxLc9vRGCgnlxFn8xU07ZFKMC6l7qou0Jq6v95LYtnjNtanvo2IW9AQKvFgpLcxIMpkz7pA4aRWQk=
re: #44 Jack Burton
I have a really bad relationship with probability, dice rolls, and RNGesus. So I get it.
The Atlantic had an interesting interview with a mathematician explaining what probabilities mean “A Math Whiz on How to Stop Stressing About Election Forecasts
An interview with the mathematician Jordan Ellenberg about politics, election forecasting, and how to think about the future like a pro:”
Ellenberg: According to some philosophers of mathematics, probability is a measure of your feelings. It’s a measure of your degree of belief in some proposition. That’s all it is.
[…]
Thompson: So probabilities are almost like guides for our feelings about the future?
Ellenberg: I would put it even more strongly: Feelings are for the same thing that math is for. They’re both for guiding your decisions and helping you select actions and helping you understand things. Relevant to your decision making is how strongly you feel about the outcome. So, yes, probabilities are about feelings.
re: #62 Eclectic Cyborg
I have to either take out the whole engine, or remove the intake manifold, oil pan, steering rack, and front differential on my truck to change the timing chain, because of 1 bolt being in a bad location.
I want to strangle the engineers.
(FYI don’t buy a 4WD Chevy Colorado, GMC Canyon, or Isuzu I-series truck with an inline 4 or 5 engine, both have this issue.)
re: #54 lawhawk
That’s quite the closing message from Trump. He’s going after:
Hillary, Lebron, and Lady Gaga.
Last time I checked, none of them are running to be president in 2020.
But his sycophantic suckups and base don’t care about any of that. And that’s scarier than the fact that Trump thinks this is a winning message.
One gets the impression that Trump and his devotees have some deep-seated resentment towards successful blacks and women.
Covid is OUT OF CONTROL in Lubbock, with heedless, maskless yokels partying shoulder-to-shoulder in saloons and restaurants every night.
Lubbock Reports 568 New Cases, 6 New Deaths on Monday.
The hospitalization rate for our trauma service region is at 23.85% as of Sunday, putting Lubbock over 15% hospitalization for 14 days. This is the highest rate we’ve seen since we exceeded 15% this month.
The City of Lubbock confirmed 568 new cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19), 254 recoveries and an additional six deaths on Monday. The total number of cases in Lubbock County is 20,328: 3,681 active, 16,433 listed as recovered and 214 deaths.
It’s plague-town, stay the fuck away.
re: #60 Yeah Sure WhatEVs
Thanks but nope.
I didn’t have to use all caps.
Could it be a browser or browser security issue?
If not, there is a number on the first page you can call for direct assistance, though I don’t know how long you’d have to wait on the telephone.
This woman is a badass. And Bakersfield cops suck.
A woman was chased down because she had a #blacklivesmatter flag on her car. The police came and… pic.twitter.com/n3tQZ4gUP9
— BallerAlert (@balleralert) November 2, 2020
re: #63 Love-Child of Cassandra and Sisyphus
Another one of my relatives has Covid-19:
[Embedded content]
C7/ZMErBBoyWxFly5z1hAwWeHtBKfHVKzDsU61e5o9zqh+JpnC6Dfwxus1c7+tB5SWGmY5WcsTg=
re: #68 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
I didn’t have to use all caps.
Could it be a browser or browser security issue?
If not, there is a number on the first page you can call for direct assistance, though I don’t know how long you’d have to wait on the telephone.
I’m going to call the IRS and see what they have to say.
re: #69 makeitstop
This woman is a badass. And Bakersfield cops suck.
Twitter can now do their thing and a bunch of people can lose their jobs.
re: #62 Eclectic Cyborg
OT, but I’d like to send a big “FUCK YOU” to the Dodge engineers that designed my vehicle because WHY THE FUCK DO I NEED A TAKE A TIRE OFF TO CHANGE MY DAMN BATTERY??
I had to have a freaking mechanic do it in the end but at least he charged me a fair rate.
Putting batteries in weird locations was one of the stupidest things car makers started doing. And even if you are going to put it in a random location, at least make it ACCESSIBLE. My mother-in-laws old Buick had a battery that was under the back seat, but at least in that case you could just pop the seat bottom off and get access to it without much drama.
My wife’s Touareg battery is under the driver’s seat.
Enables the battery to live longer, but replacing it no fun.
re: #56 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Don’t see how you deal with that all winter long. We just eagerly await our 1 winter storm of the year to give us a 6 or 7 inch snow and a day off from work or school. It’s like a baked-in holiday between MLK Day and Good Friday.
re: #73 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Twitter can now do their thing and a bunch of people can lose their jobs.
I’m doubtful those people have jobs.
re: #61 William Lewis
Two of my favorite badasses!
re: #64 garzooma
The Atlantic had an interesting interview with a mathematician explaining what probabilities mean “A Math Whiz on How to Stop Stressing About Election Forecasts
An interview with the mathematician Jordan Ellenberg about politics, election forecasting, and how to think about the future like a pro:”
That’s a pretty good explanation of what poker is.
Gawd, I miss being able to go to the casino.
re: #74 BeenHereAwhile
My wife’s Touareg battery is under the driver’s seat.
Enables the battery to live longer, but replacing it no fun.
The Smart battery is in the back of the car under the rear deck, but I’ve never had to change it. I’d probably leave it to a mechanic if I ever need to do that.
Bunker Boy is having a bad week. https://t.co/h34x7SgW5m
— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) November 3, 2020
re: #76 TarHellion
Don’t see how you deal with that all winter long. We just eagerly await our 1 winter storm of the year to give us a 6 or 7 inch snow and a day off from work or school. It’s like a baked-in holiday between MLK Day and Good Friday.
Well, the difference between summer highs and winter lows is about 110°F here. Winter started this year in the first week of September (which is a bit early).
It’s easier to heat the house than cool it as well.
re: #73 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Twitter can now do their thing and a bunch of people can lose their jobs.
They already ID’d the woman who tried to slap her phone.
re: #81 jaunte
Biden strolls toward the grounds after the election, with the air of Ronald Reagan: “Mr. Trump, tear down this wall!”
re: #81 jaunte
[Embedded content]
This is the start of the Real Krazy. The new barrier is just the start. The invitation by Trump to Oathkeepers and fellow travelers to occupy the grounds inside the White House will escalate things up until actual Swearing-In of President-elect Biden.
The the real Shitshow begins. Pundits, experts, and media elites have consistently underestimated what Trump is capable of.
NEW VIDEO! #GullibleWhiteMaleTrumpVoters
This is my second to last video before signing off.
This video exposes the Trump base from top to bottom.
HELP ME GET 15,000 **QUOTE RETWEETS** and RETWEETS on the eve of the most important election in history.
I NEED YOUR HELP! pic.twitter.com/pnFK8xiX8G— Don Winslow (@donwinslow) November 2, 2020
re: #85 Florida Panhandler
This is the start of the Real Krazy. The new barrier is just the start. The invitation by Trump to Oathkeepers and fellow travelers to occupy the grounds inside the White House will escalate things up until actual Swearing-In of President-elect Biden.
The the real Shitshow begins. Pundits, experts, and media elites have consistently underestimated what Trump is capable of.
Would the DC cops just let them stroll up to whatever entrance he has in his self-built prison? Especially with guns?
sword thing isn’t a joke (no clue why @cd_hooks deleted this essential post) pic.twitter.com/W7437pUnCI
— kill 💀 tim 💀 faust (@crulge) November 3, 2020
re: #69 makeitstop
“Don’t start taking video to get the culture to feel sorry for you. ” - that right there, that’s a damn stupid reply to the original video.
Of course one should video criminals in action. Record them, shame them.— freetoken fights fecking fascists (@freetoken) November 3, 2020
There’s no revival of manufacturing.
You lie. How do we know. Trump’s overseen collapse of manufacturing jobs. He’s wiped out last 6 years of job growth. pic.twitter.com/zxHVQHsjlV— lawhawk #maskingforafriend (@lawhawk) November 3, 2020
According to the FRED (that’s the US Federal Reserve), Trump’s economic collapse wiped out the last 6 years of manufacturing jobs growth. All of Trump’s job growth vaporized. All of it.
We are worse off - by the government’s own reckoning.
But Trump thinks people will buy the baffling bulkshit.
They see the businesses closing. The bankruptcies declared. The factories that limited shifts or shut down.
And another Republican SOS says we should count every vote (imagine that), Bunker Boy. Edit to add: even so, LaRose is still an asshole)
“Every vote matters” - Ohio Secretary of Sate @FrankLaRose https://t.co/BylwXnRwIQ
— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) November 2, 2020
re: #64 garzooma
Think of probabilities like a craps game. Odds of rolling a 7 (1 in 6) or 16.67 percent. Odds of rolling a 4 (1 in 12) or 8.33 percent. Odds of rolling a 5 (1 in 9) or 11.11 percent.
One of my favorite Las Vegas memories was a guy coming up to a crowded craps table and tossing down $100 bucks that the next roll would be a 12 (1 in 36) or 2.78 percent. Yes, the 12 came up, and he collected his 30 to 1 payout of $3,000. One of the few times I’ve ever seen a table stop and stare in amazement.
538 now has FFVC’s odds at winning at 1 in 10. In other words, Orange Anus has to wager all of its chips that a single roll of the dice will come up as a 5. Impossible? Not at all. But I’d rather be Biden and have all the other numbers covered.
re: #86 makeitstop
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NEW VIDEO! #GullibleWhiteMaleTrumpVoters
I never saw Jaws II. One of the reasons was that they had the mayor from the first film apparently winning re-election. And I couldn’t conceive of people voting for the guy who downplayed the danger of the shark and let it eat them. I guess I owe the makers of Jaws II an apology.
Hurricane bombogenesis still going on.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…14.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…934 MB…27.58 INCHES
re: #91 BeachDem
And another Republican SOS says we should count every vote (imagine that), Bunker Boy. Edit to add: even so, LaRose is still an asshole)
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Because despite what Trump thinks. He’s not the only one or thing on the ballot.
re: #92 TarHellion
People suck at odds, which is why casinos stay in business when they’re not operated by Trump.
Trump’s betting on essentially getting snake eyes to win, which is a replay of how he won in 2016. Odds of getting snake eyes twice in a row?
A little over 4 hours to go. This is the big showdown with redneck America, gooberdammerung, the Trumpocalypse, Rubageddon. They know it, too. Even the dumbest yokel can sense it in his inbred bones. Being either morons or craven opportunists who grift morons, they have no idea what to do. They will lash out like cornered beasts. Be careful and alert, folks, because we ARE going to win.
re: #97 lawhawk
People suck at odds, which is why casinos stay in business when they’re not operated by Trump.
Trump’s betting on essentially getting snake eyes to win, which is a replay of how he won in 2016. Odds of getting snake eyes twice in a row?
Previous snake eyes do not affect the odds of getting snake eyes this time.
Alabama National Guard has alerted 300 troops for Election Day assistance. The announcement made a point of declaring the troops would not necessarily be used here, but could be deployed to requesting governors under a multi-state compact. They would not be federalized in that case.
al.com
re: #96 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)
Because despite what Trump thinks. He’s not the only one or thing on the ballot.
Ah, saved this for you—
In Scranton, Biden’s team turns out voters, while Trump supporters turn up the volume
It was almost exactly 2 p.m. as the trucks — horns blaring — passed the county government office where, a few hours earlier, a steady chain of poll workers had arrived to pick up the material they needed for Tuesday. Lamborghinis with thundering engines followed, however incongruously, as the group passed President Trump’s regional field office across the street. Then, half a block up, the racket was turned to 11 as the vehicles passed a team registering volunteers to knock on doors in support of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
re: #93 garzooma
I never saw Jaws II. One of the reasons was that they had the mayor from the first film apparently winning re-election. And I couldn’t conceive of people voting for the guy who downplayed the danger of the shark and let it eat them. I guess I owe the makers of Jaws II an apology.
Yeah, since Trump, a lotta stuff has changed. Lotta expectations smashed, lotta norms busted, etc. Hopefully we can build better back.
re: #101 BeachDem
Ah, saved this for you—
In Scranton, Biden’s team turns out voters, while Trump supporters turn up the volume
It was almost exactly 2 p.m. as the trucks — horns blaring — passed the county government office where, a few hours earlier, a steady chain of poll workers had arrived to pick up the material they needed for Tuesday. Lamborghinis with thundering engines followed, however incongruously, as the group passed President Trump’s regional field office across the street. Then, half a block up, the racket was turned to 11 as the vehicles passed a team registering volunteers to knock on doors in support of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
They’re defeated.
re: #92 TarHellion
Think of probabilities like a craps game. Odds of rolling a 7 (1 in 6) or 16.67 percent. Odds of rolling a 4 (1 in 12) or 8.33 percent. Odds of rolling a 5 (1 in 9) or 11.11 percent.
[…]
538 now has FFVC’s odds at winning at 1 in 10.
If I understand the mathematician’s argument, it’s that the election odds are very much not the same as the craps odds. The physics of a die means that any number has a 1/6 chance of coming up. And you can repeatedly roll the die to see that this is in fact the case. With the election odds, they’re looking at polls — which have all sorts of assumptions built in, plus looking at historical data to tell how a certain polling advantage turns into a win probability. There’s all sorts of uncertainty involved. And you can’t re-run the election multiple times to see how often different results obtain.
re: #99 calochortus
Previous snake eyes do not affect the odds of getting snake eyes this time.
The odds of rolling 4 “1’s” on 4D6 are different than rolling 2 “1’s” on 2D6.
The reality of the Trump/cult coronavirus policy — to allow, if not actively encourage, out-of-control spread of covid — is finally penetrating the consciousness of some people in Big Journalism. See today from Krugman:
Still waiting for it to dawn on most in the craft… pic.twitter.com/shYuXM4vif— Dan Gillmor (@dangillmor) November 3, 2020
re: #105 jamesfirecat
The odds of rolling 4 “1’s” on 4D6 are different than rolling 2 “1’s” on 2D6.
If neither event had occurred then the odds of rolling any particular combination twice would be small. Since one of the rolls has already occurred, that is a known outcome and doesn’t affect the odds of the second roll.
re: #105 jamesfirecat
The odds of rolling 4 “1’s” on 4D6 are different than rolling 2 “1’s” on 2D6.
But, if you roll 2d6 and get snake eyes, the chance of getting snake eyes on the next 2d6 you roll (assuming fair dice) is 1 in 36; it doesn’t matter that you just rolled 2 1s. Trump already won in 2016; that doesn’t play, statistically, into him defying the odds again.
Anyhoo, I need to do something about dinner.
Catch you all later.
re: #103 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)
They’re defeated.
And delusional—
“I think the polls are wrong,” Ross said, “and I think Trump is going to win unless there’s election fraud. God, I’m hoping not. I think that’s on everybody’s mind.”
“That’s the only thing that we’re worried about, is election fraud,” Dietz added. Asked why she was worried about it, she shrugged.
“I just think Democrats are going to try to pull something just to get in,” she said.
re: #9 KGxvi
The gamblers seem to favor Biden:
Current odds have Biden as a -188 favorite, Trump is at +188. At least at the website I saw.
Trump can’t be +188. The book wouldn’t make any money because if the action is equal on both sides, their EV would be zero.
re: #84 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
Biden strolls toward the grounds after the election, with the air of Ronald Reagan: “Mr. Trump, tear down this wall!”
just want to point out that the fence/”wall” around the WH is a direct result of bullets shot several times at the WH during the Obama Administration, one time at least a bullet went through a wall/window into Sasha’s bedroom.
re: #101 BeachDem
Lamborghinis with thundering engines followed, however incongruously, as the group passed President Trump’s regional field office across the street.
Economic anxiety.
re: #112 Backwoods_Sleuth
just want to point out that the fence/”wall” around the WH is a direct result of bullets shot several times at the WH during the Obama Administration, one time at least a bullet went through a wall/window into Sasha’s bedroom.
I’m referring to the five layers of fencing and wall Trump has put up since the George Floyd protests started.
Bob probably fucks Sally on certain weekdays when his wife is out of town, if it weren’t for that Bob probably wishes Sally death because he’s a fucking fascist nazi Republican. https://t.co/I4FABlQJwC
— Charlie Vogel, aka His Teleness the Charlie Lama (@teleskiguy) November 2, 2020
re: #106 jaunte
You’re underestimating the malign part: They’re actively encouraging the spread.
— Dan Gillmor (@dangillmor) November 3, 2020
There needs to be genocide trials.
El Paso and Lubbock hospitals are overwhelmed, it’s only a matter of time before our hospitals are here in the Nebraska Panhandle.
Everyplace the GOP is in charge, it is spreading with no effort to stop it. At this point it is deliberate.
re: #104 garzooma
This is true and the reason why randomized polling offers a margin of error that can be replicated with 95 percent confidence. Using dice or the draw of a card is simply a means of expression. Is there a world in which FFVC carries 326 Electoral Votes this time? Sure. There’s also one where Biden wins 419. Somewhere in between is the likeliest of outcomes.
Sherrod and Beto coming up on Chris Hayes.
re: #103 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)
They’re defeated.
Like the dude said - funeral processions.
re: #110 BeachDem
And delusional—
“I think the polls are wrong,” Ross said, “and I think Trump is going to win unless there’s election fraud. God, I’m hoping not. I think that’s on everybody’s mind.”
“That’s the only thing that we’re worried about, is election fraud,” Dietz added. Asked why she was worried about it, she shrugged.
“I just think Democrats are going to try to pull something just to get in,” she said.
I really need to read up on how they started the election fraud mythos. I do remember the fearmongering about ACORN in the aftermath of Obama’s election..
Remember Canada: Don’t Vote. pic.twitter.com/8OJeZSQR4w
— 22Minutes (@22_Minutes) November 2, 2020
Before this year and COVID-19, we had so many people from Canada, snowbirds, come down that the trailer parks flew Canadian flags. I might have worried about confused Canadians but not this year.
re: #116 teleskiguy
Bob secretly thinks Sally almost rises to the status of a 6 when the lights are just right but drops to a 2 when she insists on sharing her lib opinions.
re: #97 lawhawk
People suck at odds, which is why casinos stay in business when they’re not operated by Trump.
Trump’s betting on essentially getting snake eyes to win, which is a replay of how he won in 2016. Odds of getting snake eyes twice in a row?
35/1, or 2.7%
re: #111 Ace Rothstein
sportsbook.com has Biden at -185 and Trump at +150. The odds to win the Popular vote are Biden -800 and Trump +500.
re: #125 TarHellion
So if my numbers are correct the bookies are saying Joe will win and DT won’t.
That sick imagination belongs to Stephen Miller, and the camps are real. https://t.co/UROenZUD6e
— A.R. Moxon (@JuliusGoat) November 3, 2020
re: #116 teleskiguy
Enter a moran:
Popper’s Paradox of Tolerance states that ideas should be countered with ideas, and utilizing violence to counter those ideas *is the very intolerance that should not be tolerated*.This comic conflates “intolerance” with “bad ideas”. It’s not… at least according to Popper.
— 𝔸𝕓𝕤𝕠𝕝𝕦𝕥𝕚𝕠𝕟𝕚𝕤 (@Absolutionis) November 2, 2020
But we should claim the right to suppress them if necessary even by force; for it may easily turn out that they are not prepared to meet us on the level of rational argument, but begin by denouncing all argument; they may forbid their followers to listen to rational argument, because it is deceptive, and teach them to answer arguments by the use of their fists or pistols. We should therefore claim, in the name of tolerance, the right not to tolerate the intolerant.
He missed the second half.
re: #108 JC1
But, if you roll 2d6 and get snake eyes, the chance of getting snake eyes on the next 2d6 you roll (assuming fair dice) is 1 in 36; it doesn’t matter that you just rolled 2 1s. Trump already won in 2016; that doesn’t play, statistically, into him defying the odds again.
Except voting patterns aren’t random.
re: #124 Ace Rothstein
Odds of saying you will roll Snake Eyes twice in a row: 1/36 x 1/36 = 1 in 1,296. Have I seen it happen? Yes. Would I bet on it? Hell no! And if it came up 3 times in a row (1 in 46,656), the casino would be checking for loaded dice.
l/a9RyTitva6ABvwM3WGM8FX7yfw7rrfqJCpO8vK9MzrXlS00uyqeCGrir8AlL6SNGXbrVJVtBi8RLVnbosVudXZJ2JXbTlUexrOOQUZe9zTZHkmbkvPCHoaj3QXubXTLlHIUUVv0yg=
re: #121 LeftyRambles2413 (HappyWarrior)
I really need to read up on how they started the election fraud mythos. I do remember the fearmongering about ACORN in the aftermath of Obama’s election..
For the disgusting yam:
The Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity (PEIC or PACEI), also called the Voter Fraud Commission, was a Presidential Commission established by Donald Trump that ran from May 11, 2017 to January 3, 2018.
And the cast of unsavory characters/members:
Chair: Mike Pence, Republican, Vice President of the United States, former Governor of Indiana
Vice Chair: Kris Kobach, Republican, Secretary of State of Kansas, Of Counsel, Immigration Reform Law Institute
J. Christian Adams, Republican, former Department of Justice Civil Rights Division attorney
Ken Blackwell, Republican, former Ohio Secretary of State and previously state Treasurer
Matthew Dunlap, Democrat, Secretary of State of Maine
Bill Gardner, Democrat, New Hampshire Secretary of State
Alan Lamar King, Democrat, probate judge of Jefferson County, Alabama[46]
Connie Lawson, Republican, Secretary of State of Indiana
Christy McCormick, Republican, Commissioner of the Election Assistance Commission
Mark Rhodes, Democrat, Wood County, West Virginia county clerk
Hans von Spakovsky, Republican, former member Federal Election Commission, Senior Legal Fellow, Heritage Foundation; Director, Public Interest Legal Foundation.
from two threads back
no we didn’t have a sharknado
it was a papaya tree rescue
20 feet tall
5-600 pounds
post coming
re: #125 TarHellion
sportsbook.com has Biden at -185 and Trump at +150. The odds to win the Popular vote are Biden -800 and Trump +500.
That’s more like it, so the he book’s hold is 4.68% with those odds. They make an average of $4.68 per $100 wagered.
7 USC §§4912(a) & 4908(c) makes it a federal crime for a department of agriculture employee to reveal how a watermelon handler voted in a watermelon referendum.
— A Crime a Day (@CrimeADay) November 3, 2020
Giants are wearing Super Bowl XXV-era helmets and jerseys. Not like it’s going to help them. Lawrence Taylor IS NOT taking that field. Phil Simms IS NOT taking that field.
re: #126 PhillyPretzel
So if my numbers are correct the bookies are saying Joe will win and DT won’t.
Sort of. The odds are set based on what the bookmaker thinks YOU (the public) think. If a bookmaker right now set Trump’s price at -140 and Biden’s at +120, the bookmaker would get slaughtered in a matter of minutes by the sharps, because the sharps know what the real odds are.
re: #116 teleskiguy
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Sally need to consider cutting off all contact with Bob, as he supports a party that is straight up white nationalist at this point. Sally’s in fucking denial about Bob’s slowly eroding ability to feel empathy towards humans in general.
I hate that fucking cartoon.
If Biden wins, I hope to God he doesn’t start that “reach across the aisle” bullshit. Conservatives need to be fucking banished from any meaningful role in federal government for decades.
Jumping fucking shitballs Fuckface Von Clownstick’s Twitter feed!
re: #137 teleskiguy
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7 USC §§4912(a) & 4908(c) makes it a federal crime for a department of agriculture employee to reveal how a watermelon handler voted in a watermelon referendum.
— A Crime a Day (@CrimeADay) November 3, 2020
its probably ok if the president or other republican does it
re: #138 TarHellion
Giants are wearing Super Bowl XXV-era helmets and jerseys. Not like it’s going to help them. Lawrence Taylor IS NOT taking that field. Phil Simms IS NOT taking that field.
What were they wearing when they blew it against the Eagles? I’m 1000% behind them wearing that uniform all season.
re: #132 TarHellion
Odds of saying you will roll Snake Eyes twice in a row: 1/36 x 1/36 = 1 in 1,296. Have I seen it happen? Yes. Would I bet on it? Hell no! And if it came up 3 times in a row (1 in 46,656), the casino would be checking for loaded dice.
Correct. I screwed that one up.
re: #134 BeachDem
For the disgusting yam:
The Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity (PEIC or PACEI), also called the Voter Fraud Commission, was a Presidential Commission established by Donald Trump that ran from May 11, 2017 to January 3, 2018.
And the cast of unsavory characters/members:
Chair: Mike Pence, Republican, Vice President of the United States, former Governor of Indiana
Vice Chair: Kris Kobach, Republican, Secretary of State of Kansas, Of Counsel, Immigration Reform Law Institute
J. Christian Adams, Republican, former Department of Justice Civil Rights Division attorney
Ken Blackwell, Republican, former Ohio Secretary of State and previously state Treasurer
Matthew Dunlap, Democrat, Secretary of State of Maine
Bill Gardner, Democrat, New Hampshire Secretary of State
Alan Lamar King, Democrat, probate judge of Jefferson County, Alabama[46]
Connie Lawson, Republican, Secretary of State of Indiana
Christy McCormick, Republican, Commissioner of the Election Assistance Commission
Mark Rhodes, Democrat, Wood County, West Virginia county clerk
Hans von Spakovsky, Republican, former member Federal Election Commission, Senior Legal Fellow, Heritage Foundation; Director, Public Interest Legal Foundation.
Oh I know but they’ve been claiming fraud in their media bubbles for as long as I remember.
re: #111 Ace Rothstein
Trump can’t be +188. The book wouldn’t make any money because if the action is equal on both sides, their EV would be zero.
I absolutely love that a reader named Ace Rothstein is jumping in to explain how betting and bookmaking works.
re: #146 Mattand
I absolutely love that a reader named Ace Rothstein is jumping in to explain how betting and bookmaking works.
I do what I can.
re: #130 Anymouse 🌹🏡😷
TERFs reaaaally want to be pals with Trumpers don’t they https://t.co/mUUorrgAkY
— Ruby/Rails Poet (@AjaxRequest) November 2, 2020
Poking around the Intertubz, it would appear she is one of those who think trans people aren’t a thing and shouldn’t have special rights, and just like the English author of fantasy novels I won’t invoke here, gets really pissy when you call her out on the very name they invented for themselves.
re: #20 Eclectic Cyborg
Grateful Dead. Steal Your Face
He’s gone, gone,
And nothing’s gonna bring him back
re: #97 lawhawk
People suck at odds, which is why casinos stay in business when they’re not operated by Trump.
Trump’s betting on essentially getting snake eyes to win, which is a replay of how he won in 2016. Odds of getting snake eyes twice in a row?
1 in 36. Same odds of rolling it the first time. They’re independent events.
Finally someone at the NYT gets it. This has been my mindset in a nutshell.
“But Donald Trump will put a bullet into the country,” Friedman continued. “If you don’t think that’s true, then you haven’t been paying attention the last four years.”
Friedman added: “When you break things, when institutions break, when norms break, in a fundamental way, they are very, very hard to put back together.”
And the Republican Party won’t help, he said.
Friedman slammed the GOP under Trump as a “giant political brothel that basically rents itself out by the night to whoever will energize its base — whether it was Sarah Palin or the tea party or Trump. Unfortunately, for the last few years the red light has always been on.”
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