Preparing for the End Game
Here’s a very interesting analysis by Jonathan Ariel at Ma’ariv, arguing that the logic of the war on terror inevitably leads to a confrontation with Pakistan: Preparing for the end game. (Hat tip: Allah.)
To his credit, George W Bush doesn’t ignore his problems. His lack of foreign policy expertise is turning out to be a blessing. Never having been part of the foreign policy establishment, he is unfettered by its conventional thinking. Moreover, it has become increasingly clear that whatever cerebral abilities he does or does not have, he is capable of creative thinking out of the box.
It has become clear to him that Pakistan, ostensibly an ally in the war on terror, is more of a liability than an asset. The recent disclosures of Pakistan’s nuclear misbehavior is the first step in dealing with this. They occurred while CIA chief Tenet was in Islamabad. At the same time Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom was in Delhi, signing a whole range of arms deals with India, including the sale of Phalcon airborne radar, the sale of which was approved by the US. This is the same radar that is used by the Arrow ABM, enabling India to neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear threat. The message, though discreetly sent, is very clear. “The game is up, we know who you are and what you did. Play ball or face the consequences”.
The price was also named. Stop pussyfooting around, and take out Al Qaida, which continues to exist and is gradually rebuilding itself in the rugged North-Western Frontier area. The US sees an opportunity to decisively eliminate Al Qaida, which is clearly relatively weak, unable to mount an offensive against the US itself. The US takes the possibility that Al Qaida has acquired some atomic devices seriously, and wants to take the movement out before it can rebuild sufficient logistical and operative capabilities to try an attack the US with one of them.