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Suspected and confirmed poisitive/negative results are represented by different color push-pins with dots. Deaths are dotless. (Note the cluster of deaths just south of San Diego.) Dates are in the dd/mm/yy format.
Many of the push-pins represent multiple infections, but there are also many that are listed multiple times. Nevertheless, good general description of distribution.
4 comments
1 |
funky chicken Apr 27, 2009 12:52:50pm |
The confirmed CA cases are all from the last week of March or first week of April! WTF
Does anybody here really believe that the spread of this virus in CA just…magically stopped?
| 2 |
funky chicken Apr 27, 2009 12:55:30pm |
24/04/2009 Two fatalities
Thirteen fatal cases of severe respiratory illness were reported in Mexico City; four in San Luis Potosi, a city north of the capital; two in the state of Baja California Norte, bordering California; and another in Oaxaca city in the south.
but not a single case in CA after 4/6/09?
But the EU is telling people to not travel to the USA? Something’s not kosher.
| 3 |
funky chicken Apr 27, 2009 1:01:32pm |
CALIFORNIA San Diego County
Last Updated by niman 2 days ago
06/04/2009 her father aged 54 years went to a San Diego County clinic with acute respiratory illness with daughter, an adolescent girl aged 16 years. The youth had onset of illness on April 5. Her symptoms included fever, cough, headache, and rhinorrhea. The father had onset of illness on April 6 with symptoms that included fever, cough, and rhinorrhea. Both had self-limited illnesses and have recovered. The father had received seasonal influenza vaccine in October 2008; the daughter was unvaccinated.
with this timeline, one could argue that it came from the US
| 4 |
dry_heavz_4_alla Apr 27, 2009 2:15:53pm |
re: #2 funky chicken
but not a single case in CA after 4/6/09?
But the EU is telling people to not travel to the USA? Something’s not kosher.
Not sure how the information is entered, but if you scroll down (or look on the map) you’ll find more CA’s, including a 7 yo girl (suspected) added on 4/24.
As for the apparent low prevalence currently, this makes sense if you consider the basic population growth model and incubation time. The 1918 pandemic had a mortality rate around 2%. The current mortality rate may appear to be about 8% (150 dead / 2000 infected), but it’s more likely that the total infected over the past few weeks is much higher (like 7500). Most may have been of the relatively mild strain and gone unreported while no one was particularly looking for it. [This happened to a work colleague of mine this past Friday. His wife flew in from Dallas with fever, vomiting, etc., went to the doctor, asked about the flu, doctor said “Nah, flu season’s over”. He hadn’t heard the news.]
If this thing hasn’t reached its peak, there could be thousands not showing symptoms yet. Assuming all ~1000 currently hospitalized are positive, and they infected about 2.5 additional people each during the 2 days they were incubating, that’s about 2500 people out there who will be heading to the hospital over the next couple days … after they’ve infected another 6250 while incubating. But keep in mind that the 1918 bug went dormant during the summer months and came back with a vengeance in the fall (40 million+ dead worldwide in a few months time)
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