We will pass 2 meter sea level rises by 2100 if the acceleration of ice sheet melting is constant
This paper has been cited 231 times. Since its publication in 2005, the rate of acceleration has only increased as observed by yearly ice-melt data.
At this point, it is almost impossible to hope that sea level rises will be limited to only 1 meter. An outcome of a two meter rise by 2100 seems almost assured if we do not change our ways in the immediate coming decades.
A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise
John A. Church1,2 and Neil J. White1,2
Here is the abstract:
Multi-century sea-level records and climate models
indicate an acceleration of sea-level rise, but no 20th
century acceleration has previously been detected. A
reconstruction of global sea level using tide-gauge data
from 1950 to 2000 indicates a larger rate of rise after 1993
and other periods of rapid sea-level rise but no significant
acceleration over this period. Here, we extend the
reconstruction of global mean sea level back to 1870 and
find a sea-level rise from January 1870 to December 2004
of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea-level rise of 1.7 ±
0.3 mm yr1 and a significant acceleration of sea-level rise
of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm yr2. This acceleration is an important
confirmation of climate change simulations which show an
acceleration not previously observed. If this acceleration
remained constant then the 1990 to 2100 rise would range
from 280 to 340 mm, consistent with projections in the
IPCC TAR. Citation: Church, J. A., and N. J. White (2006), A
20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 33, L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
Now what would the impact of that be?
GIS Analysis of Global Impacts
from Sea Level Rise
Future sea level rise caused by climate change would disrupt
the physical processes, economic activities, and social systems
in coastal regions. Based on a hypothetical global sea level
increase of one to six meters, we developed GIS methods to
assess and visualize the global impacts of potential inundation
using the best available global datasets. After susceptible
areas were delineated, we estimated that the size of the areas
is between 1.055 (one meter) to 2.193 million km2 (six meters).
Population in the susceptible areas was estimated to range
from 108 (one meter) to 431 million (six meters) people.
Among the seven land-cover types in the susceptible areas,
forest and grassland account for more than 60 percent for all
the increments of sea level rise. A suite of interactive visualization
products was also developed to understand and
communicate the ramifications of potential sea level rise.
Here is the important chart to take from it in relation to the first paper.
Sea Level, , ,Inundated Area , , % Land, , , Population, , ,% of Total
Rise(m), , ,(1000 km2) , , , Area , , , ,(millions), , , ,Population
1 , , , , 1054.99 , , , 0.7 , , 107.94 , , , , 1.7
2 , , , , 1312.97 , , , 0.9 , , 175.10 , , , , 2.8
3 , , , , 1538.58 , ,, ,1.0 , , 233.99 , , , , 3.7
4 , , , , 1775.24 , ,, ,1.2 , , 308.08 , , , , 4.8
5 , , , , 2004.37 , ,, ,1.4 , , 376.26 , , , , 5.9
6 , , , , 2193.30 , ,, ,1.5 , , 431.44 , , , , 6.8
Though I tried very hard to maintain the tabs of the original table, I am having difficulty with the word editor of this page.
The important point is that for a two - three meter rise in sea level,
175-233 million people will be displaced. This does not include storm surges or refugees from expanding deserts.
I will post other papers that show the worldwide number of displaced taking all of these factors into account is on order of 500 - 1000 million.
Hat tip to Thanos. Following the paper trail of one of his links reminded me of this paper.