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1 Romantic Heretic  Sat, Jun 26, 2010 8:14:05am

The Confederacy was doomed even if it had won The Civil War. This is because the Confederacy's founding principle would have been, "I don't haveta if I don't wanna."

The first time there was a disagreement between the States of the Confederacy about a policy, and the Confederacy made a decision on that policy, the state that 'lost' the decision would have given the Confederacy the finger and struck off on its own.

In a couple of decades the Confederacy would have looked a lot like Germany in the 15th Century; a pile of small states and independent cities of no significance whatsoever.

2 lostlakehiker  Sat, Jun 26, 2010 8:42:39am

re: #1 Romantic Heretic

The Confederacy was doomed even if it had won The Civil War. This is because the Confederacy's founding principle would have been, "I don't haveta if I don't wanna."

The first time there was a disagreement between the States of the Confederacy about a policy, and the Confederacy made a decision on that policy, the state that 'lost' the decision would have given the Confederacy the finger and struck off on its own.

In a couple of decades the Confederacy would have looked a lot like Germany in the 15th Century; a pile of small states and independent cities of no significance whatsoever.

This presents a logical puzzle. If the Confederacy had won the Civil War, it would have been in part because they saw the folly of that "don't wanna don't haveta" mindset.

In order to get a different result, something has to be different. The chance events of war, a sniper's bullet striking Buford at Gettysburg, or a sentry not shooting Jackson at Chancellorsville, will not tip the war into the CSA column. The armies were too big and the mobilization capacity of the North too great.

A much improved CSA logistical and conscription system, had it come about, would have given the south sufficiently deep pockets that, with some improved luck on the battlefield, she could have held Atlanta through to the election of 1864. With yet more luck, McClellan may have won the election.

And so in this view, pretty much the only way the CSA could have won would have been through a chain of events that included such reforms as would have made it possible for the CSA to have endured for decades thereafter.

The "peculiar institution" would have remained a millstone around her neck, and the North would have grown ever relatively stronger. Meanwhile, another Southern attidudinal trait, that of being entitled, (and favored by providence) would have persisted. Another war, one in which "the objective correlation of forces" (Soviet-speak) would have been so lopsided that only one outcome was possible, would have been all but inevitable. The South may have survived as a CSA for decades, perhaps, but not for centuries.

But who can say? Predicting the future is tough, even in hindsight.

3 Mardukhai  Sat, Jun 26, 2010 6:57:47pm

The South shall rise again - so save your Dixie Cups!


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