Free Demos Report: the power of unreason conspiracy theories, extremism and counter-terrorism
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The frequency of conspiracy theories within all these groups
suggests that they play an important social and functional role
within extremism itself. This does not mean that conspiracy
theories are the proximate cause of extremism or violence. There
are many extremist groups that do not believe conspiracy theories
as far as we can tell, such as the Real IRA or the Unabomber.
Conspiracy theories are not a necessary condition for extreme
beliefs or action. Equally, conspiracy theories do not always lead to
extreme or violent behaviour. There are many peaceful, even
moderate groups that believe conspiracy theories such as ‘2012’
ecological groups who believe that in 2012 the world as we know it
may end, or the 9-11 truth movement.
While it is not possible to demonstrate direct causal links between
conspiracy theories and extremism, our findings suggest that the
acceptance of conspiracy theories in contexts of extremism often
serves as a ‘radicalizing multiplier’, which feeds back into the
ideologies, internal dynamics and psychological processes of the
The Power of Unreason
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group. They hold extremist groups together and push them in a
more extreme and sometimes violent direction.
This happens in three ways. First, conspiracy theories create
demonologies of ‘the other’ or ‘the enemy’ that the group defines
itself against. Second, they delegitimise voices of dissent and
moderation by casting them as part of the conspiracy. Finally, they
can encourage a group to turn to violence, acting as rhetorical
devices to portray violence, both to the group itself and their wider
supporters, as necessary to ‘awaken’ the people from their
acquiescent slumber.
More broadly, conspiracy theories drive a wedge of distrust between
governments and particular communities. Conspiracy theories -
such as those that claim 7/7 or 9/11 were ‘inside jobs’ - demolish the
mutuality and trust that people have in institutions of government,
with social and political ramifications that we still don’t fully
understand. This can especially hinder community-level efforts to
fight violent extremism. A more long-term threat is that extreme
and violent groups could start to form new alliances based on
shared conspiracies – as has already happened with the National
Anarchist movement and various far right overtures to al-Qaeda.
Moreover, extreme groups may be able draw on a larger counterculture
of conspiracies as a pool of possible recruits.
Therefore, fighting the ideology of extremist groups, a central
component of counter-terrorism strategy since 2001, should also
target the myths, lies, and conspiracies that are part of it. However,
attempts by government to factually refute them often inadvertently
give them legitimacy. We recommend a small number of
interventions focusing on making government institutions more
open, and investing more resources in enabling people to think
critically, rather than government confronting conspiracy theories
directly.