OMG!11! Gallup Generic Ballot Virtually Tied!11! News At Eleventy!11!
Holy cow, it’s the come back of the century as the Dems pull ahead after being down 10 points just 2 weeks ago! What will the GOP do now that the Gallup poll has them trending towards a monumental
loss win unicorn fail triumph who the fvck knows? Who will cry in thier Corn Flakes when the Magical Balance Fairy has the Dems GOP Whigs Humans up 5 points next week?
PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup’s generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. 13-19 shows a 46% Democratic and 45% Republican split in registered voters’ preferences for the midterm congressional elections. It is the second week out of the last three in which the two parties have been virtually tied.
More on the Gallup Generic Ballot Poll from Steve Benen, who, as usual, get’s it exactly right:
In the weeks since, the Republican lead vanished, then reappeared, then evaporated again. In the new poll released yesterday, Democrats have a one-point lead over Republicans, 46% to 45%. Dems who rejoice are making a mistake — the moral of the story over the last several weeks is that Gallup’s generic-ballot tracking poll just isn’t telling us anything useful, no matter which party likes the results in any given week. The “caveat emptor” phrase was made for results like these.
I mention this, though, for other two reasons. The first is that the media’s double standard is annoying. If Gallup results Republicans like are big news, the opposite should be true, too, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. If major outlets are running stories this morning pointing to “resurgent Dems re-take the lead,” I haven’t seen them.
The second is that, while I think it wise to discount the Gallup generic-ballot tracking data, it’s probably worth noting that the overall picture seems to have improved ever-so-slightly for Dems recently. Looking at the Pollster.com chart, at least of this morning, Republicans have seen their national numbers dip just a little over the last couple of weeks, while Democratic numbers have inched a little higher. If one excludes Rasmussen results, the picture for Dems looks a little friendlier still.