For Rome to prosper it must first burn
Summary: This is post #1701 on the FM website. It’s a summary, guessing about the future of America based on the evidence and theories presented here (and at DNI) during the past 7 years. The title describes the theme; at the end are links to more information.
Most modern systems are robust, so that great disasters usually require a series of mistakes plus misfortune. HMS Titanic sank after almost unavoidable design errors, misplaced binoculars, excessive nighttime speed despite warnings of ice, calm seas (concealing the iceberg), incorrect helm orders by First Officer Murdoch, and apparent mental collapse of the Captain.
A similar chain of events has put America on course for disaster. Years of imprudent debt accumulation by households, businesses, and government. A generation of unfunded promises of retirement benefits by businesses and governments. Capture of both political parties by wealthy elites, who eroded away the foundations of our Constitutional regime. Unaffordable expenditures on national defense at the expense of critical national infrastructure (both physical and human). The last opportunities for reform were:
during the Bush Jr. administration (the 2001 recession, the recovery, the first year of the great recession)
the first year of the Obama administration (change during crisis), and
the inevitable populist resurgence brought about by the great recession.
Major opportunities. All blown.