Strategic Challenges Found in US Demography
Demographic trends could have three major implications for the U.S. national security in coming decades.
First, absent some major unforeseen shock, America’s demographic position will be a source of long-term strategic strength. To exploit that strength, the United States will need to do more to craft public policy that encourages legal immigration and to develop public policy approaches to ensure that immigrants are assimilated into American society.
Second, the fact that the United States’ traditional allies are all facing aging populations is likely to make it even harder for the United States to garner material support for its efforts. The limits to European military capability are painfully obvious in Afghanistan, and Japan’s out-of-area military efforts have stalled. In retrospect, we might look back on Afghanistan as representing the high-water mark of those allies’ willingness and ability to project power beyond their borders. Even in defense of their own territory, advanced states might face real limits. The decline in South Korea’s birthrate has already shaped the imperative to transform the Republic of Korea Armed Forces into a smaller but more professional military.