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1 freetoken  Mon, Apr 4, 2011 7:09:58pm

Spencer has published several papers in scientific journals over the years.

The thing to understand about Spencer, and this is true of many professional and/or religious contrarians, is that he runs two persona: (1) the scientist who has to follow the rules of the editors of science journals, who tend to be quite picky especially for the better journals, and (2) the contrarian (in this case influenced by his religion) who plays to the popular press and hoi polloi for the sake of fame.

2 Charles Johnson  Mon, Apr 4, 2011 8:08:47pm

Roy Spencer is a creationist. That's all you need to know to evaluate his credibility.

And I don't give him credit for anything. He's one of the people who is misleading humanity into making a colossal mistake, and there's absolutely nothing praiseworthy about that.

3 studentpatriot  Tue, Apr 5, 2011 4:37:03pm

If Spencer is such a kook, why can he even publish/compete/draw attention in serious scientific journals?

Oh right, when your hypothesis is "adding C02 makes the earth x degrees hotter in 10 years", you are setting yourself up for failure. Too broad a statement in too large a system - somebody is always going to come along and poke holes in your argument.

In an untestable system (comparing what happened in the past and computer models, both of which can be interpreted to fit whatever you like), someone can crunch the numbers differently or use whatever logical system you think you have devised against your own conclusions:

In his paper, Dessler dismissed all of the evidence we presented with a single claim: that since (1) the global temperature variations which occurred during the satellite record (2000-2010) were mostly caused by El Nino and La Nina, and (2) no one has ever demonstrated that “clouds cause El Nino”, then there could not be a clouds-causing-temperature-change contamination of his cloud feedback estimate.

But we now have clear evidence that El Nino and La Nina temperature variations are indeed caused in large measure by changes in clouds, with the cloud changes coming months in advance of the temperature changes.

There is no end to this game, because this system is too large and predictions cannot be precisely made or defended. Regardless of who is closer to the scientific "truth", I don't see any way to make a testable statement on either side.


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