Libyan Civil War, June 12th Update
The amount of news coming out has increased dramatically, and as a result, we are learning just how bad the situation is getting for Qaddafi.
Cities of Libya
Misrata Front
The front is continuing to have fighting. Apparently, there have been some interesting news coming out of this, with NATO saying the rebels should stay behind a ‘red line’, in order to tell who is friend and foe. This is apparent in the map, with the red dashed line, with red shaded area being places that the rebels left . This has led to criticism, as strikes have been as intense here as elsewhere, along with the fact that the situation was stagnant for over 3 weeks. Apparently, NATO strategy was to try and weaken Qaddafi in Tripoli, which in theory would lead to successful uprising. It evidently didn’t work.
However, recent attacks in the area have caused the rebels to go back into the areas. In Tawergha, they have the eastern side of the town, but a residential compound of some sort in the western side is giving them trouble. However, fighting is the harshest in the area running from Zlitan to Naimah, with at least 53 dead this week. However, Qaddafi’s forces have lost a large amount of material and suffered even more dead, currently pegged at more than 70.
This doesn’t count Zlitan itself, which has been partially liberated, at the cost of 22 civilians and rebels. The Qaddafi forces have lost 300 in this small city, and are now laying siege to it. Currently, citizens cannot get to the hospital, food and people (among other things) are not being allowed through checkpoints, and snipers on rooftops are randomly shooting at people, reminiscent of the Siege of Misrata earlier. Major General Yousif Abu Hajr is threatening the city with shelling and rape if the city doesn’t surrender.
The above map also shows the no-mans land of the salt marsh. The area has no cover, making anyone on the road through it a very easy target.
Nafusa Front
Qaddafi’s forces are continuing to suffer heavy blows in this area. Two towns between Yefran and Zintan have been taken. From the sounds of it, the rebels are not too far away from getting a single unbroken line in the mountains. There are signs of restiveness in the strategic town of Gharyan, which has a road that runs north-south from Tripoli. However, shelling is still continuing in this area.
Other Fronts
While news of an advance of 18 kilometers towards Brega would be interesting and important usually (the rebels are still 22 km from Brega). The biggest news is the revivial of an old front, and new front in the south.
In the past 48 hours, Az Zawiyah, which had previously resisted Qaddafi and fell, revolted again. Qaddafi’s men suffered heavy damage, with 100 of their men killed, while only managing to inflict 15 fatalities on the rebels. Apparently, arms shipments were being snuck in by the rebels. However, the operation was evidently coming close to being blown, so they attacked earlier than they were planning. In any event, some portion of the town is again out of Qaddafi control. In addition, Qaddafi forces sent towards the city to try and retake it were intercepted by NATO, resulting in heavy damage to the force. As a result of this development, the coastal road between Tripoli and Tunisia has be cut.
In an unexpected development, the revolt has now gotten into swing in Sabha, an area traditionally very loyal to Qaddafi. In the past day or so, a neighborhood joined fell out of Qaddafi’s control. The neighborhood then barricaded themselves in behind checkpoints. As I type this, a mercenary force at the Nafusa front has been ordered to Sabha to try and retake the neighborhood. This has a good effect on the Nafusa Front, as the rebels there have fewer people to fight. Sabha is a city along the road that runs from Tripoli to Ghadamis, and into Algeria.
Political
The United Arab Emirates recongized the NTC as the legitimate government of Libya. This follows the announcement of the same by Spain and Australia on June 8th and 9th, respectively.
The ICC prosectutor has said that he hopes Libya will be able to arrest Qaddafi have him tried for his crimes under the ICC. He is being extremely optimistic, to the point of naive. Qaddafi will more than likely end up like Mussolini or Ceausescu.