2011 State of the Future
The Millennium Project was established in 1996 as the first globalized think tank. It conducts independent futures research via its 40 Nodes around the world that connect global and local perspectives.
Executive Summary
The world is getting richer, healthier, better educated, more peaceful, and better connected and people are living longer, yet half the world is potentially unstable.
Food prices are rising, water tables are falling, corruption and organized crime are increasing, environmental viability for our life support is diminishing, debt and economic insecurity are increasing, climate change continues, and the gap between the rich and poor continues to widen dangerously.
There is no question that the world can be far better than it is—IF we make the right decisions. When you consider the many wrong decisions and good decisions not taken—day after day and year after year around the world—it is amazing that we are still making as much progress as we are. Hence, if we can improve our decisionmaking as individuals, groups, nations, and institutions, then the world could be surprisingly better than it is today.
Now that the Cold War seems truly cold, it is time to create a multifaceted compellingly positive view of the future toward which humanity can work. Regardless of the social divisions accentuated by the media, the awareness that we are one species, on one planet, and that it is wise to learn to live with each other is growing, as evidenced by the compassion and aid for Haiti, Pakistan, and Japan; the solidarity with democracy movements across the Arab world; the constant global communications that connect 30% of humanity via the Internet; and the growing awareness that global climate change is everyone’s problem to solve.
Fifty years ago, people argued that poverty elimination was an idealistic fantasy and a waste of money; today people argue about the best ways to achieve that goal within 50 years. Twenty-five years ago, people thought that civilization would end in a nuclear World War III; today people think everyone should have access to the world’s knowledge via the Internet, regardless of income or ideology.
The 2011 State of the Future offers no guarantee of a rosy future. It documents potentials for many serious nightmares, but it also points to a range of solutions for each. If current trends in population growth, resource depletion, climate change, terrorism, organized crime, and disease continue and converge over the next 50–100 years, it is easy to imagine an unstable world with catastrophic results. If current trends in self-organization via future Internets, transnational cooperation, materials science, alternative energy, cognitive science, inter- religious dialogues, synthetic biology, and nanotechnology continue and converge over the next 50–100 years, it is easy to imagine a world that works for all.
The coming biological revolution may change civilization more profoundly than did the industrial or information revolutions.The world has not come to grips with the implications of writing genetic code to create new lifeforms. Thirteen years ago, the concept of being dependent on Google searches was unknown to the world; today we consider it quite normal. Thirteen years from today, the concept of being dependent on synthetic life forms for medicine, food, water, and energy could also be quite normal.