Pages

Jump to bottom

6 comments

1 sliv_the_eli  Mon, Aug 22, 2011 2:30:05pm

Because nothing says "ready for a state" like repeatedly postponing elections.

2 Bob Levin  Mon, Aug 22, 2011 2:48:50pm

re: #1 sliv_the_eli

Ludwig wrote about his preferred strategy earlier, and that strategy becomes more feasible, to me, if you have internationally recognized, independent states attacking Israel.

Do you remember the Domino Theory that provided the reasons for continuing the Vietnam war? (I'm not going to argue the morality of the North Vietnamese--that wasn't the discussion) The theory was that if Vietnam turned communist, then that would set off a series of communist revolts throughout the rest of the region.

I think the US and Europe have been under this domino approach to the Middle East, that if Israel launches into full-scale attack mode, which we would call defense mode, then that will touch off revolts throughout the region and jeopardize the flow of oil. Again, how far wrong could the departments of state be?

Are there any stable governments in the Middle East besides Israel? Jordan? Maybe today. It appears from Abbas' public statements that he believes he can have an independent state and still attack Israel at will, without fear of major retaliation. I don't think Israel feels that way. I think the main reason Israel opposes the formation of the state is precisely because they don't want to retaliate as they would have to, if they were attacked by another sovereign nation.

3 sliv_the_eli  Mon, Aug 22, 2011 3:07:54pm

re: #2 Bob Levin

History shows, however, that Israel is forced to fight with the proverbial arm tied behind its back even when attacked by another sovereign state. Witness only the "world" response when Hizb'allah fires the occasional rocket or Lebanese soldiers fire across the border at, and even kill, Israeli troops. Each time, the response is to warn Israel against escalation rather than support Israel's right to defend its sovereignty.

4 Bob Levin  Mon, Aug 22, 2011 3:43:47pm

re: #3 sliv_the_eli

The thinking was that Lebanon did not attack Israel, a terrorist organization attacked Israel, doing so by blending in, and in many cases, brutally intimidating the Lebanese civilians. Nevertheless, a sovereign state did not attack Israel.

I think we are agreeing--when the countries of the world hope that Israel doesn't escalate to the level to which their very own countries wouldn't hesitate, it's because those nations feel that all of the other Arab nations would join the war against Israel. It's the Domino Theory all over again.

But it's different this time. Departments of state that are dependent on Arab oil have lost their grasp of the regional politics. All of their theories are out of the window. Slowly, with Israel being silent, Saddam, Qaddafi, soon to be Assad, and Mubarak are gone. The Jordanian monarchy is not sitting comfortably, the Saudis are thinking that Israel might be their best ally (very quietly, of course), and Lebanon is far from stable.

I think we have to see what will happen in September. It's extremely possible that Assad's impending exit will be the top story. So, if Fatah can't count on Hamas for stability, if Egypt is now unreliable, if Assad is going and Qaddafi is gone, where are the big brothers who will come to the rescue? In other words, it's wise to attack when the variables are clear. Even for D-Day, the Allies had to wait for the weather to clear.

5 sliv_the_eli  Mon, Aug 22, 2011 4:18:02pm

With respect to Lebanon, your recollection is not accurate. The last two widely known attacks across the Lebanese border were by uniformed Lebanese army personnel, not by lone, non-uniformed Hizb'allah operative.

Here is a link to the Jordan Times report of an incident a few weeks ago, in which Lebanese troops fired at an IDF patrol that was operating south of the blue line (that is, in Israeli territory). Note that even the Lebanese claimed to have fired the first shots.

[Link: www.jordantimes.com...]

And here is a link to last year's incident, in which a uniformed Lebanese army sniper killed an Israeli officer who was stationed 300-400 meters inside Israeli territory observing a tree trimming operation on the Israeli side of the "blue line".

[Link: www.bbc.co.uk...]

(FYI, I linked to non-Israeli news sources to avoid any concern about pro-Israel bias in my choice of sources.)

In both instances, UNIFIL acknowledged that the IDF did not cross the blue line. In every instance, Israel is urged to act with restraint, rather than supported in its defense of its sovereignty.

The lessons of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 and from the Gaza Strip in 2005 are exactly the opposite of what you are positing. Those withdrawals, by which Israel pulled all troops and, in the latter case, thousands of civilians, behind the demarcation lines that are allegedly the source of the conflict between the combatants, had no enduring impact upon whether the "world community" gave actual support to Israel's right to self-defense. Instead, as the above examples show, Israel is consistently urged to "show restraint" while its citizens are killed by attacks emanating from across its borders.

6 Bob Levin  Mon, Aug 22, 2011 4:57:05pm

re: #5 sliv_the_eli

I was thinking of the war that occurred during the three weeks. So, you're correct regarding those incidents.

However, the calls for restraint are indeed predicated upon this domino theory, which isn't much of a theory right now. I forgot to mention that Iran just suspended funds to Hamas. Again, the infrastructure of the enemies which surround Israel is in the process of collapse or is in great disarray. Letting them fall isn't such a bad strategy.

We might disagree on whether the requests for restraint stem from a domino theory or antisemitism--although there is not much disagreement. In all practicality, it doesn't matter. What does matter is how we answer the question--when the enemy is falling, do you reach out and push? I wouldn't reach out and push.


This page has been archived.
Comments are closed.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2023-04-04 11:11 am PDT
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal
Cash.app
Recent PagesClick to refresh
Why Did More Than 1,000 People Die After Police Subdued Them With Force That Isn’t Meant to Kill? An investigation led by The Associated Press has found that, over a decade, more than 1,000 people died after police subdued them through physical holds, stun guns, body blows and other force not intended to be lethal. More: Why ...
Cheechako
Yesterday
Views: 35 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
A Closer Look at the Eastman State Bar DecisionTaking a few minutes away from work things to read through the Eastman decision. As I'm sure many of you know, Eastman was my law school con law professor. I knew him pretty well because I was also running in ...
KGxvi
Yesterday
Views: 89 • Comments: 1 • Rating: 1