Chart: 2011 could be record year for tornadoes

The above chart rather clearly shows that the 1950’s had on average some 400 tornadoes per year in the continental US. For the 2000’s The average is close to 1200. There are more big storms, F4 and F5, as a subset. The upward trend is obvious to the naked eye. No fancy statistics needed. However, it should be noted that in the 1950’s there was less reporting of storms through radar or satellite. As a result, this should only be looked at from the 1970 point on.

TORNADO TRENDS OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS

One of the key predictions of Climate Science is that there would and will be more and more extreme weather events. In this case, a warmer gulf of Mexico will provide more warm moist air to be swept up into the tornado alley which will fuel more tornadoes.

So ask yourself… If the science predicts more increased intense storm frequency and then the rate of those storms occurring increases clearly in a mere four decades, could it be that the science got that right?

Another CNN article about what is happening to people right now:

2011: Year of billion-dollar disasters

[A storm in May in Oklahoma] was part of a six-day outbreak of an estimated 180 tornadoes that caused 177 deaths, including 157 in Joplin, Missouri. Total losses across 15 states were greater than $7 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

This is a very good recap…

The United States has already seen nine weather disasters this year that have caused $1 billion or more in damage, tying the record set in 2008. The total for all the disasters is about $35 billion.

Scientists have predicted for some time this would have serious human cost.

“The year 2011 has already established itself in the record books as a historic year for weather-related disasters, and it is not over — in fact, hurricane season is just getting under way,” NOAA Deputy Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan told the Senate Appropriations Committee in late July.

Here are the other eight, according to NOAA, from most to least recent:

Upper Midwest flooding, summer

The Missouri and Souris rivers flooded across the Upper Midwest. About 11,000 people were forced to evacuate Minot, North Dakota, and thousands of acres of farmland flooded along the Missouri. Five people were killed, and estimated losses exceed $2 billion and counting.

Mississippi River flooding, spring-summer

Heavy rain and melting snow in the Ohio Valley caused historic flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. At least two people died, and the estimated economic loss ranges from $2 billion to $4 billion.

Southern Plains/Southwest drought, heat wave and wildfires, spring-summer

Drought, heat wave and wildfires have devastated parts of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, Kansas, Arkansas and Louisiana. The total direct losses are well over $5 billion, and the drought continues.

Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes, April 25-30

An outbreak of 305 tornadoes over central and Southern states killed 327 people, including 240 in Alabama. Several of the storms struck heavily populated areas, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville in Alabama and Chattanooga, Tennessee, causing the damage costs to soar to more than $9 billion.

Midwest/Southeast tornadoes, April 14-16

Just a few days earlier, an outbreak of 160 tornadoes struck 10 central and Southern states, killing 38 people, 22 of them in North Carolina. Total property losses exceeded $2 billion.

Southeast/Midwest tornadoes, April 8-11

One week before that, an estimated 59 tornadoes in nine states didn’t kill anyone but caused more than $2.2 billion in damage.

Midwest/Southeast tornadoes, April 4-5

In the first week of April, 46 tornadoes struck 10 central and Southern states, causing nine deaths and doing $2.3 billion damage.

Groundhog Day Blizzard, January 29-February 3

A large winter storm struck many states in the central, al, eastern and northeastern U.S., leaving 36 people dead. Total losses exceeded $2 billion.

Of course, this effects the economy in other ways. And of course, it is global. For example:

“It’s been extraordinary,” said Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America. (Reinsurers provide financial backing to insurance companies.) “The earlier losses are really out of line with historic patterns. It’s not unusual, of course, to have thunderstorm losses or tornado losses in the spring, but the scope of these has just been extraordinary.”

Because insurance and reinsurance are global businesses, those losses are piled on top of those incurred during floods in Australia, an earthquake in New Zealand and the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Nutter said. Nevertheless, the insurance industry is in solid financial shape, he said.

Still to come is the height of hurricane season, which Nutter’s industry tends to look at as the “big-ticket” loss season. NOAA is predicting 14 to 19 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, as many as five of which could be Category 3 (with 111 mph winds) or higher.

The careful reader will look at the above list and say “Hey wait a minute LVQ, the listed numbers only add up to 35 billion. If you include that insurance stuff ok maybe a few billion more.” True. That is in the US alone. Chinese, Indian, Pakistani and Russian crop losses more than make up the rest.

Drought ‘poses threat’ to grain security

“Catastrophic drought occurred once every five years in the 1950s and once every two years in the 1990s. But in the past 10 years it’s been almost every year,” Li Maosong, director of the Agricultural Information Office at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), told China Daily.

Climate Change ‘Takes Toll’ on Grain Harvest

Tang Huajun, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), said a 5 to 10 percent crop loss is foreseeable by 2030 if climate change continues.

‘The impact of climate change, coupled with arable land loss and water shortages, will cause a bigger grain production fluctuation and pose a threat to reaching output targets,’ Tang told China Daily.

According to statistics from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), the average annual crop losses due to drought in China were 75.7 billion yuan ($11.1 billion) from 1988 to 2004, while annual losses due to flood were 51.1 billion yuan.

‘Drought has become the greatest disaster facing China’s agriculture,’ said Lin Erda, a professor with CAAS.

Russia admits crop loss of 38%; self sufficient in 2010 but no reserves for 2011

Russia has enough grain to cover its domestic needs after harvesting this year 38% less than the previous crop, a senior official said Monday. However markets believe Russia could be forced to import several million tons to ensure grain reserves until the following 2011 harvest

The GOP wants to cut any science related to this, even warning systems:

Weather Alerts Are Imperiled, NOAA Warns

Without money to build a new satellite, the federal government will no longer be able to forecast severe weather events far enough in advance for communities to take life-saving action five years from now. That was the message that Jane Lubchenco, the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, delivered on Wednesday at a town-hall-style meeting in Denver.

Hurricanes contribute disproportionately to those numbers, but this year the cost of disasters has exceeded $35 billion before hurricane season has even begun in earnest.

“The nation is increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather,” said Dr.
Lubchenco, who sought emphatically to link that vulnerability to the importance of financing for NOAA.

In the first half of August, she said, 5,000 heat records were broken across the United States. About 2,000 of those were for the highest maximum temperature on a given day, and 3,000 were for the highest minimum temperature. This means nights as well as days have been getting hotter.

From January to July, 6.1 million acres across the country burned in wildfires, breaking the previous record by more than a million acres. At the end of July, 26 percent of the United States was suffering extreme or severe drought conditions, while 33 percent was extremely or severely wet.

Do you get the picture? Every single one of these events was predictable by AGW. We are doing this to ourselves. The science is utterly clear. It has been for decades. The current predictions of the science are that it gets vastly worse from here. Only the most insane fool could deny the clear and present danger and the terrible human cost. The effects are already very grim. If we do not change course, the effects are utterly catastrophic.