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1 Samson  Sun, Sep 18, 2011 10:29:42pm

Partnership with Egypt? Davutoglu is dreaming. The future government of Egypt will be run by the Muslim Brotherhood and will be more radically Islamist than Turkey, and with an Arab nationalist component as well. They are not likely to find Turkey to their liking, and many in the Arab world have not forgotten the rule of the Ottoman Empire and have no wish to bring back the good old days. In any case, Egypt is far too volatile at this point for Turkey, or any other country, to establish stable relations with.

Economically, Turkey is unlikely to find much of a partner in Egypt right now either. The Egyptian economy is a shambles, and even the formerly reliable tourism sector is moribund. While I would never completely underestimate the Egyptian military, I am guessing that they are even more corrupt and in disarray than they were in 1967. That doesn't mean they may not be a threat to Israel in the years to come, but I doubt they will be much help to Turkey or as a "regional anchor" for the foreseeable future.

No, this is not a match made in heaven and is not likely to go far or last long. A pity that Davutoglu and his colleagues can't get past their Jew-hatred and repair their relationship with Israel, the one democratic country in the middle east that is stable politically, economically and militarily.

2 Bob Levin  Mon, Sep 19, 2011 12:32:03am

re: #1 Samson

Let's watch this play out. Turkey has done some pretty slick diplomacy in the last month or so. It's getting late (pardon, it's late), but very quickly, I think the model for imperialism changed after WWII. Countries now prefer trade relations rather than an occupying governor with accompanying military presence. The sun now sets on the British Empire but the banks never close.

We've got two possibilities up in the air. Your scenario, and mine. I'm not saying Turkey is a great friend of Israel, or that it should be. However it sounds like they're going to try to create a Middle East that is stable enough for business, Turkish business.

It's a very tough chess match with Israel right now over that gas. Israel has grown and will continue to grow with or without it. Turkey has a lot to lose (face) if they lose a confrontation with Israel. I'm seeing two players staring at the board and it's seeming like neither one wants to make the wrong move.

It's up to current events.

3 Samson  Mon, Sep 19, 2011 9:08:15pm

re: #2 Bob Levin

With all due respect, Bob, I would hardly call pandering to the Arab world, alienating Israel and threatening Cyprus and NATO slick diplomacy. Erdogan has been making a jackass of himself lately, and sooner or later this is bound to backfire. He can get by without Israel - everyone else at least appears to manage - but as I've indicated before, his idea of reconstituting the Ottoman Empire is not going to play well on the Arab street.

Erdogan has proven himself a rather hot-headed Islamist, but not nearly radical enough to appeal to the hard-core jihadists or moderate enough to appeal to the west. He would like everyone to like him, but really, I am starting to think no one outside of Turkey does. And I'm not so sure about Turkey, either - one severe economic downturn and he will lose control or be compelled to resort to non-democratic means of staying in power. I hope he doesn't go back to the old playbook and start blaming the Jews, but it would hardly be a surprise if he did.

4 Bob Levin  Tue, Sep 20, 2011 12:08:19am

re: #3 Samson

Yeah, but look who now has the leverage to walk into any room in the Arab world, broker a meeting with any two leaders, even leaders that have yet to emerge (and Turkey probably has a good idea who these folks are, maybe even lend a helping hand). Right now he looks very effective, and is well received.

His plans may not work, you're correct about that. But he's presently playing his hand very well. Is there another Foreign Office or State Department that can say the same thing?

No one will ever name our present historical period as The Age of Wisdom.


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